孩之寶報告第三季收入下降,其中游戲和娛樂部門受到的影響最大。然而,調整後的營業利潤和每股收益有所增加。
該公司專注於節省成本和降低庫存水準。孩之寶的特許經營品牌表現良好,但 Nerf 類別還有改進的空間。
公司看好玩具產業的長期成長潛力。孩之寶計劃在 2024 年清理和重置其玩具業務,並在 2025 年推出新的創新。他們預計來自《MONOPOLY GO!》的收入。第四季將推出《博德之門 3》,但對市場的不可預測性持謹慎態度。
孩之寶預計今年玩具和遊戲銷售量將下降,消費品領域也將下降。他們正在對成長計劃和成本效率進行投資。公司對玩具產業的長期前景保持樂觀,致力於玩具業務。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to Hasbro's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Ms. Debbie Hancock, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
問候。歡迎參加孩之寶 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議,您可以此時斷開連接。現在,我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁 Debbie Hancock 女士。請繼續。
Debbie Hancock - SVP of IR
Debbie Hancock - SVP of IR
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Chris Cocks, Hasbro's Chief Executive Officer; and Gina Goetter, Hasbro's Chief Financial Officer. Today, we will begin with Chris and Gina providing commentary on the company's performance, and then we will take your questions. Our earnings release and presentation slides for today's call are posted on our investor website. The press release and presentation include information regarding non-GAAP adjustments and non-GAAP financial measures.
謝謝大家,大家早安。今天加入我的是孩之寶執行長 Chris Cocks;以及孩之寶財務長 Gina Goetter。今天,我們將首先由克里斯和吉娜對公司的業績進行評論,然後我們將回答您的問題。我們今天電話會議的收益發布和簡報投影片已發佈在我們的投資者網站上。新聞稿和簡報包括有關非公認會計原則調整和非公認會計原則財務措施的資訊。
Our call today will discuss certain adjusted measures, which exclude these non-GAAP adjustments. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the press release and presentation. Please note that whenever we discuss earnings per share or EPS, we are referring to earnings per diluted share.
我們今天的電話會議將討論某些調整後的措施,其中不包括這些非公認會計準則調整。新聞稿和簡報中包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表。請注意,每當我們討論每股盈餘或每股盈餘時,我們指的是稀釋後每股盈餘。
Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during this call, and the question-and-answer session that follows, members of Hasbro management may make forward-looking statements concerning management's expectations, goals, objectives and similar matters. There are many factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,在本次電話會議以及隨後的問答環節中,孩之寶管理層成員可能會就管理層的期望、目的、目的和類似事項做出前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致實際結果或事件與這些前瞻性陳述中表達的預期結果或其他期望有重大差異。
These factors include those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K our most recent 10-Q in today's press release and in our other public disclosures. Today's guidance assumes we retain the non-core entertainment film and TV business, notwithstanding our recently announced agreement with Lionsgate to sell this business. That transaction is subject to customary closing conditions. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this call. I would now like to introduce Chris Cocks. Chris?
這些因素包括我們在 10-K 表格年度報告、今天新聞稿中最新的 10-Q 表格以及我們其他公開披露的內容中列出的因素。今天的指引假設我們保留非核心娛樂電影和電視業務,儘管我們最近宣布與獅門影業達成協議出售該業務。此交易須滿足慣例成交條件。我們沒有義務更新今天發表的任何前瞻性聲明以反映本次電話會議之後發生的事件或情況。現在我想介紹克里斯·考克斯。克里斯?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Thanks, Debbie, and good morning. A year ago, we outlined a strategy to grow share in key categories with our core toy and game franchises. We called it fewer, bigger, better, drive savings and investment capacity through operational excellence, and build new growth for the company across games, direct-to-consumer and licensing. We also announced our intention to refocus on what has traditionally made us great, the business of play. This required making tough choices, including some significant divestitures. The goal of this plan, Blueprint 2.0 was a more focused, profitable and higher growth Hasbro built on a portfolio of some of the most valuable brands in the toy and games industry.
謝謝,黛比,早安。一年前,我們制定了一項策略,旨在透過我們的核心玩具和遊戲特許經營權擴大關鍵類別的份額。我們稱之為“更少、更大、更好”,透過卓越營運提高儲蓄和投資能力,並在遊戲、直接面向消費者和授權方面為公司創造新的成長。我們也宣布,我們打算重新專注於傳統上讓我們變得偉大的事情,即遊戲業務。這需要做出艱難的選擇,包括一些重大的資產剝離。該計劃的目標是,Blueprint 2.0 是一個更專注、更盈利、更高成長的孩之寶,建立在玩具和遊戲行業一些最有價值的品牌組合的基礎上。
We've made progress against this framework, including impressive growth in Wizards and Digital, continued momentum in direct-to-consumer and share gains in key categories. But as our Q3 results show, particularly in our Consumer Products segment, more needs to be done. This morning, we will talk about progress on each pillar and add a special emphasis on a key part of our plan, returning consumer products consumer products to growth.
我們在這個框架上取得了進展,包括威世智和數位業務的驚人成長、直接面向消費者的持續成長勢頭以及關鍵類別的份額成長。但正如我們第三季的業績所顯示的那樣,特別是在我們的消費品領域,還需要做更多的工作。今天早上,我們將討論每個支柱的進展,並特別強調我們計劃的關鍵部分,即讓消費品恢復成長。
Let's start with refocusing on Play. Play is what makes our brands great and our company healthy. The sale of eOne Film and TV, which continues to be on track for an end of year close, will simplify our operating model and refocus Hasbro on our core mission. Moving forward, our entertainment efforts will be franchise-led and asset-light, focused on driving toy & game sales with support from world-class content partners. We have over 30 projects in development from blockbuster movies like the upcoming TRANSFORMERS 1 with Paramount to an animated Magic series with Netflix to digital-first IT development like our new YouTube series Odd-Paws. The margin and simplification benefits of refocusing on Play will grow over time as our teams build innovative next-generation toy & games reinforced by cost-effective and partner-led content.
讓我們從重新關注 Play 開始。玩樂讓我們的品牌變得偉大,讓我們的公司健康發展。 eOne Film and TV 的出售預計將於年底完成,這將簡化我們的營運模式,並使孩之寶重新專注於我們的核心使命。展望未來,我們的娛樂業務將以特許經營為主導、輕資產為主,重點是在世界一流內容合作夥伴的支持下推動玩具和遊戲銷售。我們正在開發30 多個項目,從大片(例如與派拉蒙合作即將推出的《變形金剛1》)到與Netflix 合作的動畫《魔法》系列,再到數位優先IT 開發(例如我們新推出的YouTube系列《Odd-Paws》)。隨著我們的團隊建立創新的下一代玩具和遊戲,並透過具有成本效益和合作夥伴主導的內容強化,重新關注 Play 的利潤和簡化效益將隨著時間的推移而增長。
Next, operational excellence, where we are making solid progress, but need to accelerate flow through. Our cost savings initiatives have already exceeded our 2023 savings targets of $150 million. This year, we anticipate total gross savings of approximately $200 million dollars we are using to fund short-term inventory reductions and product promotions in a Toy market facing headwinds and to invest long term in new consumer insight capabilities and our growth initiatives. Importantly, our supply chain team is reinventing itself. In a time where inflation is up over 4%, our logistics and production costs are down mid-single digits.
接下來,在卓越營運方面,我們正在取得紮實進展,但需要加快流程。我們的成本節約措施已超過 2023 年 1.5 億美元的成本節約目標。今年,我們預計總節省額約為 2 億美元,用於資助面臨逆風的玩具市場的短期庫存削減和產品促銷,並長期投資於新的消費者洞察能力和我們的成長計劃。重要的是,我們的供應鏈團隊正在重塑自我。在通貨膨脹率超過 4% 的情況下,我們的物流和生產成本下降了中個位數。
Supply chain alone is driving approximately $100 million of the full year's expected savings, and we see more opportunities ahead to enhance our gross margins while improving the quality and competitiveness of our toys & games. For instance, we'll be releasing a new version of Jenga, it will be of comparable quality but lower cost and higher margin, all based on a fresh design for cost model. We are replicating this up and down our line. Our revamped supply chain is helping us get smarter on inventory management. Through Q3, Hasbro's total inventory is down 27% year-over-year, with a 34% reduction in our CP business. We anticipate we'll end the year with inventories 20% to 25% below 2022 levels. This should enable us to improve cash flow and lower our allowances in the quarters to come.
光是供應鏈就帶動了全年預期節省約 1 億美元,我們看到未來有更多機會提高毛利率,同時提高玩具和遊戲的品質和競爭力。例如,我們將發布新版本的 Jenga,它將具有可比的質量,但成本更低,利潤更高,所有這些都基於成本模型的全新設計。我們正在全線上複製這一點。我們改進的供應鏈正在幫助我們更聰明地進行庫存管理。截至第三季度,孩之寶的總庫存年減了 27%,其中我們的消費品業務減少了 34%。我們預計年底庫存將比 2022 年水準低 20% 至 25%。這將使我們能夠在未來幾季改善現金流並降低津貼。
Given the headwinds facing our Consumer Products segment, the flow-through to the bottom line on these initiatives has not materialized as quickly as anticipated. So we plan to accelerate our efforts heading into 2024. We expect to achieve our 2025 goal of $250 million to $300 million in gross cost savings earlier than expected, and we'll use these incremental savings and healthier inventory position to flow more cash directly to the bottom line, particularly in CP.
考慮到我們的消費品部門面臨的阻力,這些措施的獲利並沒有像預期的那麼快實現。因此,我們計劃在2024 年加快努力。我們預計將比預期提前實現2025 年總成本節省2.5 億至3 億美元的目標,我們將利用這些增量節省和更健康的庫存狀況,將更多現金直接流向底線,尤其是CP。
Next, our growth initiatives, which are broadly on track. Wizards of the Coast in Digital Gaming is up 11% year-to-date. MAGIC: THE GATHERING is delighting tens of millions of fans with new concepts like Universes Beyond, which combine Magic with fan favorite IP like Lord of the Rings and Doctor Who. Universes beyond is a long-term multiproperty strategy that is already delivering collector excitement and new player growth. Last week, we announced a new collaboration with the beloved video game series Fallout and saw preorders climb to #1 in the Toy & Games charts over the weekend on Amazon. And on Monday, we expanded our partnership with the Walt Disney Company with the announcement of a multiset Magic and Marvel collaboration. Expect more exciting news and previews in the quarters to come.
接下來是我們的成長計劃,這些計劃已基本步入正軌。今年迄今為止,威世智的數位遊戲業務成長了 11%。 《萬智牌》以《超越宇宙》等新概念,將萬智牌與《魔戒》和《神秘博士》等深受粉絲喜愛的 IP 相結合,為數以千萬計的粉絲帶來歡樂。 《宇宙之外》是一項長期的多財產策略,已經帶來了收藏家的興奮和新玩家的成長。上週,我們宣布與深受喜愛的電玩遊戲系列《異塵餘生》進行新的合作,週末預訂量在亞馬遜玩具和遊戲排行榜上攀升至第一名。週一,我們擴大了與華特迪士尼公司的合作關係,宣布了《萬智牌》和《漫威》的多集合作。期待未來幾季有更多令人興奮的消息和預覽。
D&D is expanding into a digitally driven multimedia franchise. Baldur's Gate 3, the new video game from Larian Studios, based on D&Ds fifth edition is one of the best-selling games of 2023 and one of the highest rated video games of all time with Metacritic reviews equivalent to mega franchises like Grand Theft Auto and the Legend of Zelda. Our success in digital is in just contains the world of core gaming. MONOPOLY GO! from our partners at Scopely is the #1 mobile game launch of 2023. Combined, Hasbro expects to generate in excess of $90 million in license revenue from these 2 properties this year with a multiyear long tail anticipated. These were long-term thoughtful partnerships. Each game was signed pre-2018, and we have several more of these kinds of projects in the pipeline including new games from our own internal studios, which we'll be sharing more about in the coming months.
D&D 正在擴展為數位驅動的多媒體系列。 《博德之門3》是Larian Studios 推出的新電玩遊戲,基於《龍與地下城》第五版,是2023 年最暢銷的遊戲之一,也是有史以來評分最高的電玩遊戲之一,Metacritic 的評價與《俠盜獵車手》和《俠盜獵車手》等大型特許經營遊戲相當。薩爾達傳說。我們在數位領域的成功就在於核心遊戲領域。壟斷吧!由我們的Scopely 合作夥伴提供的遊戲是2023 年推出的排名第一的手機遊戲。孩之寶預計今年將從這兩款遊戲中獲得超過9000 萬美元的許可收入,並預計將產生多年長尾效應。這些都是長期深思熟慮的合作關係。每款遊戲都是在 2018 年之前簽署的,我們還有更多此類項目正在籌備中,其中包括來自我們自己內部工作室的新遊戲,我們將在未來幾個月內分享更多相關資訊。
Our direct-to-consumer business is up 57% year-to-date. Hasbro Pulse is a modest-sized platform today, but is scaling rapidly, giving us a new avenue to delight bands and learn from our consumers. We're excited to continue to grow our direct initiatives behind brands like Star Wars, Marvel, TRANSFORMERS, MAGIC, G.I. JOE, D&D and Power Rangers, one of the best lineups of IP in the collectible space. And we continue to scale our industry-leading licensing business across an array of brands and categories from Peppa Pig to Transformers, education to location-based entertainment.
今年迄今為止,我們的直接面向消費者業務成長了 57%。如今,Hasbro Pulse 是一個規模適中的平台,但正在迅速擴展,為我們提供了一條取悅樂團並向消費者學習的新途徑。我們很高興能夠繼續發展我們對 Star Wars、Marvel、TRANSFORMERS、MAGIC、G.I. 等品牌的直接計劃。 JOE、D&D 和 Power Rangers,是收藏領域最佳 IP 陣容之一。我們繼續擴大業界領先的授權業務,涵蓋從《小豬佩奇》到《變形金剛》、從教育到基於地點的娛樂等一系列品牌和類別。
Next, growing share in key categories. In Q3, we grew share in 4 of 5 of our key categories: preschool, action, blasters and arts and crafts. Driving this, we have several brands that are going well. In gaming, Magic and D&D are having record years. MONOPOLY is back to growth, recently reclaiming the title of the top-selling board game brand. New innovation like Twister Air is driving genre expansion in board games. TRANSFORMERS point of sale is up over 30% year-over-year, and Play-Doh is also showing solid gains. G.I. JOE continues to be a fan favorite and growth driver for our Pulse business, and FURBY is off to a strong start, one of the hottest new toy introductions of the holiday. But we have challenges and other brands that weigh on our results, particularly in our Consumer Products business.
其次,關鍵類別的份額不斷增加。第三季度,我們在 5 個關鍵類別中的 4 個類別中的份額有所增長:學前班、動作、爆破以及藝術和工藝品。推動這一趨勢的是,我們有幾個發展良好的品牌。在遊戲領域,萬智牌和龍與地下城都創下了歷史新高。 《地產大亨》恢復成長,最近重新奪回最暢銷棋盤遊戲品牌的頭銜。 Twister Air 等新創新正在推動棋盤遊戲類型的擴展。 《變形金剛》的銷售點年增了 30% 以上,培樂多 (Play-Doh) 的銷售業績也表現強勁。特種兵JOE 繼續成為粉絲的最愛,也是我們 Pulse 業務的成長動力,而 FURBY 則迎來了良好的開局,成為節日期間最熱門的新玩具之一。但我們面臨挑戰和其他品牌影響我們的業績,特別是在我們的消費品業務中。
Let's now turn to how we return this key segment back to growth. We went into 2023, expecting a Toy category down low single digits for the year. We expected Hasbro performance to be broadly in line with market, minus our exited licenses and business. Year-to-date, our point of sale is roughly in line with category. However, market performance has been more challenging than planned. Our internal POS system shows total point of sale down negative 8% through Q3, roughly equivalent to our view of the total toy market or negative 4% when accounting for exited licenses. We saw the category soften during Q3 to negative 10%, again, roughly equivalent to our view of market or negative 5% when accounting for discontinued licenses. Our share is up in our core categories. Our work on operational efficiency means our performance versus market is the best it's been in several years, but we are facing headwinds.
現在讓我們討論如何讓這一關鍵領域恢復成長。進入 2023 年,我們預計今年玩具類別將出現低個位數下降。我們預期孩之寶的業績將與市場大致一致,減去我們已退出的許可證和業務。今年迄今為止,我們的銷售點與類別大致一致。然而,市場表現比計劃更具挑戰性。我們的內部 POS 系統顯示,到第三季度,總銷售點下降了 8%,大致相當於我們對整個玩具市場的看法,即考慮到已退出的許可證,下降了 4%。我們看到該類別在第三季再次疲軟至負 10%,大致相當於我們對市場的看法,即考慮到已終止的許可證時負 5%。我們的核心類別份額有所上升。我們在營運效率方面的工作意味著我們的業績與市場相比是幾年來最好的,但我們面臨著阻力。
In any market scenario, we think this holiday will be late breaking and heavily deal reliant. So we're taking the necessary steps to position our portfolio for continued share growth, exiting the year with momentum for our brands and ensuring our inventory health is back to historical norms. Our guidance is based on a cautious outlook, but we are prepared to take advantage of any opportunities presented. We are investing in Q4 to drive continued share momentum, including maintaining our advertising and promotion budgets at competitive levels and working with retail partners to excite consumers with compelling deals. We are accelerating our cost initiatives to reduce overhead and see near-term flow-through in operating margins. And we continue to invest in product innovation behind a new leadership team in Toy that will expand this into new play patterns, price points and market opportunities in the months ahead.
在任何市場情況下,我們認為這個假期都將是較晚的突破,並且嚴重依賴交易。因此,我們正在採取必要的措施來調整我們的投資組合,以實現持續的份額成長,以我們品牌的勢頭結束這一年,並確保我們的庫存狀況恢復到歷史正常水平。我們的指導是基於謹慎的前景,但我們準備好利用任何出現的機會。我們在第四季度進行投資,以推動持續的份額成長勢頭,包括將我們的廣告和促銷預算維持在有競爭力的水平,並與零售合作夥伴合作,透過引人注目的優惠來激發消費者的興趣。我們正在加快成本計劃,以減少管理費用並看到近期營運利潤的流動。我們將繼續投資玩具新領導團隊的產品創新,在未來幾個月將其擴展到新的遊戲模式、價格點和市場機會。
Our long-term capital priorities guide our decision-making for these near-term decisions, invest to grow the business, pay down our debt, maintain a healthy balance sheet and return cash to shareholders via our category-leading dividend. Consistent with these priorities, we are investing to ensure our Toy business exits the year with healthy inventories, continued share momentum and a clear runway for new product introductions in 2024.
我們的長期資本優先事項指導我們做出這些短期決策、投資以發展業務、償還債務、保持健康的資產負債表並透過我們領先的股息向股東返還現金。根據這些優先事項,我們正在進行投資,以確保我們的玩具業務在今年結束時擁有健康的庫存、持續的份額動力以及為 2024 年推出新產品提供清晰的跑道。
Wrapping up our results in Q3, so we are making progress across many of our key initiatives, but that we also have more to do. particularly in returning consumer products to growth. Hasbro strength is the diversity of our brands across both toy & game, our Wizards and Digital business continues to demonstrate impressive growth with smart bets coming to fruition this year and lots to be excited about in the years to come. We are likewise investing in Toy to strengthen this business for the long term. A healthy toy business is a healthy Hasbro.
我們在第三季總結了我們的成果,因此我們在許多關鍵舉措方面都取得了進展,但我們還有更多工作要做。特別是在消費品恢復成長方面。孩之寶的優勢在於我們在玩具和遊戲領域的品牌多樣性,我們的奇才和數位業務繼續展現出令人印象深刻的增長,明智的賭註今年即將取得成果,並且在未來幾年將有很多令人興奮的事情。我們同樣投資玩具,以長期加強這項業務。健康的玩具企業就是健康的孩之寶。
I'd like to now turn over the call to Gina Goetter, our Chief Financial Officer, to share more about our detailed results and an update on guidance. Gina?
我現在想將電話轉給我們的財務長 Gina Goetter,以分享更多有關我們的詳細結果和指導更新的資訊。吉娜?
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. The Hasbro team continues to make progress in transforming our company, building a world-class gaming business, streamlining and improving the profitability of our consumer products and strengthening our balance sheet. Our third quarter results demonstrate the growth potential across our diversified gaming portfolio, offset by the tough macro environment across toys & entertainment.
謝謝克里斯,大家早安。孩之寶團隊在公司轉型、打造世界一流的遊戲業務、精簡和提高消費產品的盈利能力以及加強資產負債表方面不斷取得進展。我們第三季的業績證明了我們多元化遊戲產品組合的成長潛力,但被玩具和娛樂領域嚴峻的宏觀環境所抵消。
Despite market headwinds, we are growing share in the categories where we compete and are beginning to see the benefits of our cost savings initiatives played through the P&L. Total Hasbro revenue of $1.5 billion was down 10% versus last year. Wizards of the Coast in digital gaming revenue increased 40% behind strong contribution from Baldurâs Gate III, MONOPOLY GO! and MAGIC: THE GATHERING. Consumer products declined 18% due to macro category trends and planned business exits. Excluding these exits, the segment finished down 12%. The entertainment segment declined 42% due to the writer and actor strike impact. Adjusted operating profit of $343 million increased 27% versus last year. The increase was the result of favorable product mix, most notably high-margin digital game revenues as well as lower royalty and operating expenses. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.64 increased 15% versus last year, reflecting the higher operating profit, partially offset by incremental interest expense and an unfavorable tax rate impact. The adjusted results exclude $512 million of cumulative pretax impact associated with the loss on assets held for sale and to a lesser extent, onetime charges for the operational excellence program.
儘管存在市場阻力,我們在競爭類別中的份額仍在不斷增長,並且開始看到我們透過損益表節省成本的措施所帶來的好處。孩之寶總收入為 15 億美元,比去年下降 10%。由於《博德之門 III》、《MONOPOLY GO!》的強勁貢獻,《威世智》的數位遊戲營收成長了 40%。和萬智牌:聚會。由於宏觀類別趨勢和計劃的業務退出,消費品下降了 18%。排除這些退出,該細分市場最終下跌 12%。由於編劇和演員罷工的影響,娛樂部門下降了 42%。調整後營業利潤為 3.43 億美元,比去年增長 27%。這一增長是由於有利的產品組合,尤其是高利潤的數位遊戲收入以及較低的版稅和營運費用。調整後每股收益為 1.64 美元,較去年增長 15%,反映出營業利潤增加,但部分被增量利息支出和不利的稅率影響所抵消。調整後的結果不包括與待售資產損失相關的 5.12 億美元累積稅前影響,以及較小程度的卓越營運計畫的一次性費用。
Looking at our brand performance. Our Franchise Brands grew 8% in the quarter and were flat year-to-date. These brands represent our biggest and most profitable brands and are just over 60% of our revenue. Within Franchise Brands, we delivered significant Q3 revenue growth across gaming, including DUNGEONS & DRAGONS, Hasbro Gaming and MAGIC. Partner Brands declined year-over-year after strong performance from Marvel and Star Wars in 2022. Partnerships like we have with the Walt Disney Company remain a key priority for us and we expect results to improve in the quarters ahead as we expand our partner brand lines and categories like our just announced collaboration with Marvel and MAGIC.
看看我們的品牌表現。我們的特許經營品牌在本季成長了 8%,與年初至今持平。這些品牌代表了我們最大、利潤最高的品牌,占我們收入的 60% 多一點。在特許經營品牌中,我們在遊戲領域實現了第三季的顯著收入成長,包括《龍與地下城》、《孩之寶遊戲》和《萬智牌》。在2022 年漫威和星際大戰表現強勁後,合作夥伴品牌數量同比下降。與華特迪士尼公司等合作夥伴關係仍然是我們的首要任務,隨著我們擴大合作夥伴品牌,我們預計未來幾個季度的業績將有所改善產品線和類別,例如我們剛剛宣布與 Marvel 和 MAGIC 的合作。
Turning to operating margin. Third quarter adjusted operating margin of 22.8% was 6.7 margin points higher than last year. The profit impact and the volume decline in Consumer Products was offset by favorable mix growth in licensed digital gaming and MAGIC. Supply chain cost savings outpaced inflation and delivered 1.9 points of margin growth. Operating expenses also contributed 1.4 points behind labor and lower royalty expense for exited licenses. Lower advertising spend contributed 1.7 margin points of improvement as we align spend to current demand. That said, we will continue to invest in advertising and marketing to drive sales this holiday season.
轉向營業利潤率。第三季調整後營業利益率為 22.8%,比去年同期高 6.7 個百分點。消費產品的利潤影響和銷售下降被授權數位遊戲和 MAGIC 的有利組合成長所抵消。供應鏈成本節省超過了通貨膨脹,並實現了 1.9 個百分點的利潤成長。營運支出也比勞動力和已退出許可證的特許權使用費支出低 1.4 個百分點。由於我們根據當前需求調整支出,因此較低的廣告支出使利潤率提高了 1.7 個百分點。也就是說,我們將繼續投資廣告和行銷,以推動這個假期的銷售。
Finally, lower entertainment deliveries resulted in a decline in program amortization expense that contributed 1.5 points margin. Our transformation activities are delivering real savings in our P&L. Having begun these programs last year, we have a strong start on resetting the cost base for the company, and the savings are helping us navigate a softer Toy market. Year-to-date, we have accumulated $62 million of gross cost savings within supply chain and an additional $92 million of gross savings within operating expense. The combined $154 million of gross cost savings this year are more than offsetting supply chain cost inflation and allowing us to reinvest in the business and partially defray the higher cost to move through inventory. Cumulatively, since we began the savings program last year, we have reduced our cost base and delivered gross savings of $174 million. This progress puts us on track to meet our long-term gross savings goals earlier than expected, and we will be doubling down as we continue to focus on streamlining our operations and improving the profitability within toys.
最後,娛樂節目交付量的下降導致節目攤銷費用下降,貢獻了 1.5 個百分點的利潤率。我們的轉型活動正在為我們的損益表帶來真正的節省。去年開始這些計劃後,我們在重新調整公司成本基礎方面取得了良好的開端,節省下來的資金正在幫助我們應對疲軟的玩具市場。今年迄今為止,我們已在供應鏈中累積節省了 6,200 萬美元的總成本,並在營運費用中節省了另外 9,200 萬美元的總成本。今年總共節省了 1.54 億美元的總成本,足以抵消供應鏈成本的上漲,並使我們能夠對業務進行再投資,並部分支付庫存轉移的較高成本。自去年開始實施節約計畫以來,我們已累積降低了成本基礎並實現了 1.74 億美元的總節約。這項進展使我們有望比預期更早實現長期總節約目標,我們將加倍努力,繼續專注於精簡營運和提高玩具業的獲利能力。
We continue to make progress in lowering inventory levels. We've reduced total owned inventory 27% versus prior year, primarily driven by a 34% reduction in the Consumer Products segment inventory.
我們在降低庫存水準方面繼續取得進展。與去年相比,我們的總庫存減少了 27%,這主要是由於消費品部門庫存減少了 34%。
From a retail inventory perspective, their inventory was down 18% year-over-year, but up sequentially versus last quarter as they set through the holiday season. As we look to the balance of the year, we remain focused on ensuring we have a clean start to 2024, both in owned and retail inventory levels and we'll continue remaining agile in taking actions to stay in sync with broader category momentum.
從零售庫存的角度來看,他們的庫存年減了 18%,但隨著假期的臨近,環比上季度有所上升。展望今年的剩餘時間,我們仍然專注於確保 2024 年在自有庫存和零售庫存水平上都有一個良好的開端,並且我們將繼續靈活地採取行動,與更廣泛的品類勢頭保持同步。
Looking more closely at segment performance within the quarter. Wizard segment revenue increased 40% versus last year. 23 points the growth was led by licensed digital gaming revenue from BG 3 and to a lesser extent, MONOPOLY GO! The revenue for Baldur's Gate is realized along with unit sales whereas in the near term, MONOPOLY GO! has a straight-line revenue recognition based on the total multiyear contract minimum guarantee. tabletop revenue, which includes both MAGIC and D&D added 14 points of growth, driven by timing releases, including an incremental magic release in this quarter versus last year. The growth in high-margin license digital gaming drove a 99% increase in total segment operating profit versus last year and expanded operating profit margin by 14.3 percentage points.
更仔細地觀察本季的細分市場表現。嚮導部門的收入比去年增長了 40%。成長 23 個百分點,主要得益於 BG 3 的授權數字遊戲收入以及《MONOPOLY GO!》(較小程度上)。 《博德之門》的收入是隨著單位銷售而實現的,而在短期內,《地產大亨》!根據多年合約最低保證總額進行直線收入確認。桌面版收入(包括 MAGIC 和 D&D)在發佈時間的推動下增長了 14 個百分點,其中包括本季與去年相比增加的魔法版本。高利潤授權數位遊戲的成長帶動分部總營業利潤較去年增長 99%,營業利潤率擴大 14.3 個百分點。
Turning to the Consumer Products segment. The overall Toy category was down 8% in the quarter, according to circana versus 6% through the first part of the year. Despite the category headwinds, we gained share in 4 of our 5 key categories, including action figures, arts and crafts, preschool and blasters. Overall, Consumer Products segment revenue was down 18% versus last year. Looking at the key drivers for the quarter, 6 points of the revenue decline was driven by planned license exits. Another 12 points of decline was driven by toy and game volume given the broad category trends. 2 points of decline came from pricing and mix, driven by additional closeout costs as we worked through higher inventory levels. FX had a favorable 2-point impact in the segment. The segment adjusted operating margin declined 1.4 margin points primarily driven by unfavorable mix and higher inventory obsolescence and closeout costs.
轉向消費品領域。據 Circana 稱,本季整個玩具類別下降了 8%,而今年上半年下降了 6%。儘管有品類逆風,但我們在 5 個關鍵品類中的 4 個品類中獲得了份額,包括人偶、藝術和工藝品、學前教育和爆能玩具。總體而言,消費品部門的收入比去年下降了 18%。從本季的主要驅動因素來看,收入下降 6 個百分點是由計劃的許可證退出造成的。鑑於廣泛的品類趨勢,玩具和遊戲銷售量又下降了 12 個百分點。下降 2 個百分點來自定價和產品組合,這是由於庫存水準較高而導致額外的清倉成本造成的。外匯對該領域產生了有利的 2 點影響。該部門調整後的營業利潤率下降了 1.4 個利潤點,主要是由於不利的組合以及較高的庫存報廢和清倉成本。
Turning to the Entertainment segment. In the quarter, revenue declined 42%, primarily as a result of the writers and actors strikes. Partially offsetting this was 53% revenue growth in Family Brands, driven by content sales primarily for Peppa Pig and Power Rangers. Adjusted operating profit increased 37% and margin expanded 3.8 margin points to 6.6% due to the exited businesses, lower program amortization and operating expenses. The eOne film and TV assets to be sold has delivered approximately $400 million of revenue year-to-date, which is down approximately 20% versus last year. Full year earnings are expected to be breakeven to a modest loss. We've received the expected regulatory approvals for the sale of eOne film and TV and remain on track to close the deal by the end of the year.
轉向娛樂領域。本季營收下降 42%,主要是由於編劇和演員罷工。主要由《小豬佩奇》和《恐龍戰隊》內容銷售推動的家族品牌收入成長 53% 部分抵消了這一成長。由於業務退出、專案攤提和營運費用降低,調整後營運利潤成長 37%,利潤率擴大 3.8 個百分點至 6.6%。待售的 eOne 影視資產今年迄今已帶來約 4 億美元的收入,比去年下降約 20%。預計全年獲利將達到損益平衡,略有虧損。我們已經獲得了 eOne 電影和電視銷售的預期監管部門批准,並預計在今年年底前完成交易。
Wrapping up with Hasbro Inc., we delivered $335 million of operating cash year-to-date, which is $73 million ahead of last year, driven by working capital improvements led by the reduction in inventory combined with lower production costs within the Entertainment segment. Our cash and cash equivalents of $186 million does not include approximately $70 million of cash recorded in assets held for sale, the substantial majority of which we expect to stay with Hasbro upon the close of the transaction. Including this, it brings our cash on hand to approximately $250 million up from $217 million in Q2 2023. Through Q3, we repaid $107 million of long-term debt and spent $160 million on capital expenditures led by investments in Wizards of the Coast for future digital gaming releases. And we've returned $291 million of capital to our shareholders via dividends.
結束與孩之寶公司的合作後,我們今年迄今交付了 3.35 億美元的營運現金,比去年增加了 7,300 萬美元,這得益於庫存減少以及娛樂部門生產成本降低帶來的營運資本改善。我們的現金和現金等價物為 1.86 億美元,不包括待售資產中記錄的約 7000 萬美元現金,我們預計在交易結束後,其中大部分將留在孩之寶。包括這一點,我們的手頭現金從2023 年第二季度的2.17 億美元增加到約2.5 億美元。到第三季度,我們償還了1.07 億美元的長期債務,並花費了1.6 億美元用於投資威世智未來的資本支出。數位遊戲發布。我們也透過股利向股東返還了 2.91 億美元的資本。
In the quarter, we booked a 23.2% adjusted underlying tax rate, which compares to 19.9% last year. The higher rate continues to be the result of our film and TV losses and a shift in the geographical mix of income.
本季度,我們的調整後基本稅率為 23.2%,去年為 19.9%。較高的比率仍然是我們的電影和電視虧損以及收入地域結構變化的結果。
Turning to our 2023 guidance. The impact of the broader toy category declines has had a change in our consumer products and total Hasbro outlook. Based on this, we now expect total Hasbro Inc. revenue to be down 13% to 15%. As we look at the 3 primary segments, this guidance now assumes that the consumer products business will be down mid- to high teens. Based on the category trend in Q3, we are planning for modest improvement in Q4 as we begin to lap the market declines from last year. We believe that retailers will remain cautious with their inventory positions which will have an impact on typical holiday order patterns. We continue to expect that Wizards of the Coast will deliver high single-digit revenue growth behind the strong performance within digital games and solid performance on MAGIC. The majority of the revenue from BG lll was realized in Q3. We expect a modest positive contribution to revenue from the game in Q4 as it will continue to be recorded in line with unit sales.
轉向我們的 2023 年指導。更廣泛的玩具類別下降的影響已經改變了我們的消費品和整個孩之寶的前景。基於此,我們現在預計孩之寶公司的總收入將下降 13% 至 15%。當我們審視 3 個主要細分市場時,本指南現在假設消費品業務將下降到中十幾位。根據第三季的類別趨勢,我們計劃在第四季適度改善,因為我們開始經歷去年的市場下滑。我們認為零售商將對其庫存狀況保持謹慎態度,這將對典型的假期訂單模式產生影響。我們繼續預計,在數位遊戲的強勁表現和 MAGIC 的穩健表現背後,威世智將實現高單位數收入成長。 BG III 的大部分收入是在第三季實現的。我們預計遊戲將在第四季度對收入做出適度的積極貢獻,因為它將繼續與單位銷售保持一致。
MONOPOLY GO! Q4 revenue will be consistent with Q3 given the accounting methodology. As Chris said, in total, we expect the aggregate contribution from these 2 licensed games to be more than $90 million for the full year. And finally, for entertainment, we continue to expect revenue declines of 25% to 30%, which incorporates the impact of the writers and actors strikes on production deliveries in the back half of the year. Minus these assets held for sale, we expect total company revenue declines of 8% to 11% for the year. Adjusted operating margin is now expected to be between 13% and 13.5%. This guidance reflects the impact of the CP revenue call down and includes additional onetime cost to clear aged inventory on Hasbro's balance sheet, continued share momentum and reset the foundation heading into next year. This margin guidance includes a step-up in the in-year gross cost savings from our transformation efforts to $200 million. And as we look to 2024, we expect to continue accelerating our savings efforts up to improve the profitability across Toys and Games.
壟斷吧!鑑於會計方法,第四季度的收入將與第三季保持一致。正如克里斯所說,我們預計這兩款授權遊戲全年的總貢獻將超過 9000 萬美元。最後,對於娛樂業,我們繼續預計收入將下降 25% 至 30%,其中考慮了編劇和演員罷工對下半年製作交付的影響。減去這些待售資產,我們預計今年公司總收入將下降 8% 至 11%。調整後的營業利潤率目前預計在 13% 至 13.5% 之間。該指引反映了 CP 收入下調的影響,並包括清理孩之寶資產負債表上陳舊庫存的額外一次性成本、持續的股價動能以及為明年重置基礎。這項利潤率指引包括將我們轉型努力所節省的年內總成本提高到 2 億美元。展望 2024 年,我們預計將繼續加快節約力度,以提高玩具和遊戲產業的獲利能力。
Given the revenue call down, we now expect 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $900 million to $950 million. And based on this current forecast, we expect to generate $500 million to $600 million of operating cash flow.
鑑於營收下調,我們現在預計 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 為 9 億至 9.5 億美元。根據目前的預測,我們預計將產生 5 億至 6 億美元的營運現金流。
From a capital allocation standpoint, our priorities are to invest behind the business, pay down debt and return excess cash to shareholders via dividends. We remain committed to our dividend strategy and advancing our progress towards achieving an overall 2 to 2.5x long-term leverage target. As I said earlier, we are making good progress on our transformation and the work we've done to date has us positioned to build on our gaming leadership and strengthen our toy business. We believe the toy market will stabilize and return to growth. Our near-term focus is on executing the holiday season, resetting the cost base, removing complexity and sharpening the innovation pipeline for 2024 and 2025.
從資本配置的角度來看,我們的首要任務是投資業務、償還債務並透過股息將多餘現金回饋給股東。我們仍然致力於我們的股息策略,並推動實現 2 至 2.5 倍的長期槓桿目標。正如我之前所說,我們的轉型取得了良好進展,迄今為止所做的工作使我們能夠鞏固我們的遊戲領導地位並加強我們的玩具業務。我們相信玩具市場將會穩定並恢復成長。我們近期的重點是執行假期季節、重置成本基礎、消除複雜性並強化 2024 年和 2025 年的創新管道。
Chris and I will now take your questions.
克里斯和我現在將回答你們的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Eric Handler with ROTH MKM.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Eric Handler 和 ROTH MKM 的線路。
Eric Owen Handler - MD
Eric Owen Handler - MD
With regards to Wizards. So third quarter exceeded expectations, at least relative to consensus, you kept the full year guidance for Wizards intact, which would mean people have to lower their fourth quarter numbers, but everything seems to be going well there. Is this just a matter of maybe Baldur's Gate 3 being more front-end loaded than expected? Or is there something else that you're being a little bit more conservative on?
至於巫師。因此,第三季度超出了預期,至少相對於共識而言,你保持了巫師隊的全年指導不變,這意味著人們必須降低第四季度的數據,但一切似乎都進展順利。這是否只是《博德之門 3》的前端負載比預期更多的問題?或者還有其他什麼事情你比較保守嗎?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Eric. Yes, Q3 met our expectations. We had the great fortune of being able to play Baldur's Gate for a while now and had a pretty good high expectations about its performance. I think relative to how the analyst community was modeling it, I think you all put it a little more back loaded and it's going to be a little bit more front loaded than I think the model has indicated. That said, we see a long tail associated with Baldur's Gate and likewise a very lucrative and long tail for MONOPOLY GO! as well. So it will be a nice annuity for us.
埃里克.是的,第三季達到了我們的預期。我們很幸運能夠玩《博德之門》一段時間,並對它的表現抱有很高的期望。我認為相對於分析師社群對其建模的方式,我認為你們都把它放在後面,並且它會比我認為模型所顯示的要多一點前面加載。也就是說,我們看到了與《博德之門》相關的長尾,同樣,《MONOPOLY GO》也有一條非常有利可圖的長尾!以及。所以這對我們來說會是一筆不錯的年金。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
This is Gina. The only thing I'd add as color is when -- in our prepared remarks, we talked a bit about the revenue recognition. So for BG III, it's getting -- that revenue is getting recognized as those units are being delivered. So as Chris said, heavy in Q3 just given what kind of the overall launch of the game and then as we move through Q4 and into next year, there will be a tail.
這是吉娜。我唯一要添加的顏色是——在我們準備好的演講中,我們談論了一些關於收入確認的問題。因此,對於 BG III 來說,隨著這些單位的交付,收入正在確認。因此,正如克里斯所說,第三季度的重點只是考慮到遊戲的整體發布情況,然後當我們進入第四季度並進入明年時,將會出現一個尾巴。
Eric Owen Handler - MD
Eric Owen Handler - MD
Got it. And then just as a follow-up, with MONOPOLY GO! , it's the #1 revenue-generating mobile game in the world right now. I would assume it's doing well ahead of what expectations are. So what needs to happen for minimums to be exceeded?
知道了。然後作為後續行動,《MONOPOLY GO!》 ,它是目前世界上排名第一的創收手機遊戲。我認為它的表現遠遠超出了預期。那麼,需要怎麼做才能超過最小值呢?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
We can't go into a huge amount of detail on the deal. However, the deal is structured such that Scopely is incentivized to spend on marketing for it. So typically, for the first year or 2 of a major mobile release, you spend a lot on marketing, you scale the game. The game gets to a steady state, and then the marketing as a percentage of total sales goes down to something more sustainable. And that's basically what's happening here. So effectively think about our royalties as the net of store participation and a fairly high percentage of marketing. So for the first couple of years, you're basically dealing with minimum guarantees.
我們無法詳細介紹這筆交易。然而,該交易的結構使得 Scopely 有動力為其行銷支出。因此,通常情況下,在主要行動版本發布的第一年或第二年,您會在行銷上花費大量資金,並擴展遊戲規模。遊戲達到穩定狀態,然後行銷佔總銷售額的百分比下降到更永續的水平。這基本上就是這裡發生的事情。因此,有效地將我們的特許權使用費視為商店參與和相當高比例的行銷的淨值。因此,在最初的幾年裡,您基本上只處理最低限度的保證。
And as the game starts to get to maturity and those marketing and the marketing kind of goes down to a more normalized level, your participation as a licensor goes up. And if the game performs like we all hope it's going to perform and that it's performing now, it could be a dramatic improvement as well.
隨著遊戲開始成熟,行銷和行銷類型下降到更正常化的水平,您作為授權人的參與度也會上升。如果遊戲的表現如我們所希望的那樣,並且它現在的表現,那也可能是一個巨大的進步。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.
下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。
Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst
Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst
Can you guys talk a little bit about the products that you are keeping and not pruning in the consumer products category that maybe didn't perform up to expectations? And then maybe give us a road map of what you expect for turnaround time in that CP category as we work through some of these changes?
你們能否談談你們在消費性產品類別中保留而不是修剪的產品,這些產品可能沒有達到預期的效果?然後,也許可以給我們一個路線圖,說明當我們進行其中一些更改時,您對該 CP 類別的周轉時間有何期望?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Jaime. Thanks for the question. Well, our franchise brands are pretty core to the company, and they kind of are tied to each of our key categories. So in action figures, you have TRANSFORMERS, secondarily, Power Rangers, in Outdoor & blasters, you certainly have NERF, in creativity in Arts and Crafts, you have Play-Doh. In preschool, we have Peppa Pig and then in games, we have a pretty substantial portfolio across MONOPOLY, CLUE, MAGIC: THE GATHERING and D&D. And that's in addition to all the wonderful partner brands we have like our partnership with Walt Disney across Marvel and Star Wars and then, of course, with Cartoni on BEYBLADE, which is another important partner product for us as well.
海梅.謝謝你的提問。嗯,我們的特許經營品牌是公司的核心,它們與我們的每個關鍵類別都息息相關。因此,在動作玩偶方面,有《變形金剛》,其次是《恐龍戰隊》,在戶外和爆破遊戲中,當然有 NERF,在藝術和工藝品方面,有培樂多 (Play-Doh)。在學前班,我們有《小豬佩奇》,在遊戲方面,我們有相當多的產品組合,包括《大富翁》、《線索》、《萬智牌》和《龍與地下城》。除此之外,我們還擁有所有出色的合作夥伴品牌,例如我們與華特迪士尼在《漫威》和《星際大戰》中的合作夥伴關係,當然還有與Cartoni 在BEYBLADE 上的合作夥伴關係,這對我們來說也是另一個重要的合作夥伴產品。
In terms of what's performing well? I think we covered that in the comments. We have several winners that are helping us drive category share. TRANSFORMERS, I think is having a fantastic year. And I think it's really a case study on how to do movie and product integration really, really well. That brand is up 30% year-over-year. And during the movie window, was up over 90%. Play-Doh continues to drive great kind of price value and product innovation and is driving share for us in creativity. I think our games portfolio is second to none and is really broad-based across genres and player demographics, I think where we need to see more improvement, frankly, is in NERF. We're up in share in the blaster category. But we need to do a better job bringing innovation and price value into that category. And then likewise, I think we say outdoor and blasters for a reason, we need to expand NERF beyond just thinking about a dart.
就哪些方面表現良好?我想我們在評論中已經談到了這一點。我們有幾位獲獎者正在幫助我們提高品類份額。我認為《變形金剛》今年度過了美好的一年。我認為這確實是一個關於如何真正非常好地進行電影和產品整合的案例研究。該品牌年增 30%。而在電影上映期間,則上漲了90%以上。 Play-Doh 繼續推動巨大的價格價值和產品創新,並推動我們在創造力方面的份額。我認為我們的遊戲組合是首屈一指的,並且在不同類型和玩家群體中確實具有廣泛的基礎,坦白說,我認為我們需要看到更多改進的地方是 NERF。我們在爆能槍類別中的份額有所上升。但我們需要做得更好,將創新和價格價值帶入該類別。同樣,我認為我們說戶外和爆炸槍是有原因的,我們需要將 NERF 擴展到不僅僅考慮飛鏢。
We need to think about more ways that we can engage kids and families in active play across more scenarios, and I think you'll be seeing more from that for us. And then our partner brands, I think we're having a little bit of a retrenchment this year after a record year for Marvel last year and a really strong year for Star Wars. I think we have a lot of plans with Disney to expand categories like our just announced partnership on Marvel and MAGIC. And then likewise, we have a new version of BEYBLADE that's coming out next year that we're pretty bullish on, particularly based on the initial sales that they've seen in the launch in Japan.
我們需要考慮更多的方式,讓孩子和家庭在更多的場景中積極玩耍,我想你會從我們身上看到更多。然後是我們的合作夥伴品牌,我認為繼去年漫威創紀錄的一年和星際大戰強勁的一年之後,今年我們將進行一些裁員。我認為我們與迪士尼有很多擴展類別的計劃,例如我們剛剛宣布的漫威和萬智牌合作夥伴關係。同樣,我們非常看好明年推出的新版本 BEYBLADE,特別是根據他們在日本推出時看到的初始銷售。
Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst
Jaime M. Katz - Senior Equity Analyst
And as far as sort of remedying that category and returning to growth, do you see that as a first half 2024 phenomenon, second half 2024 phenomenon? Or is there some more work that really needs to be addressed before we see that?
至於補救這個類別並恢復成長,您認為這是 2024 年上半年的現象還是 2024 年下半年的現象?或者在我們看到這一點之前是否還需要解決更多的工作?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Well, Tim Kilpin came on board about 5 or 6 months ago to lead toy for us. He's a 40-year toy veteran, who's helped to champion and found multiple billion-dollar categories and led some of the biggest franchises in toys. I think typically, a new leader needs 18 to 24 months to make a big impact on the product line. I think they can do more tactically in terms of what we do with our partners and how we go about going to market. So I think you'll see the impact of Tim and his new leadership team kind of slow out through 2024 and expand as we go into 2025. And then I think the market is another factor inside of that as well. Certainly, we've been seeing headwinds in the toy category year-to-date. And we're expecting a relatively unpredictable market going into Q4. But consider us long-term bulls on toy, we see this market going back to kind of it's historical growth rate of 2% to 3%. We see a very high demand for play. And we think Hasbro is well positioned as of the most diversified toy and game company in the industry. And so regardless of which way the market goes, I think that diversification will play well for us.
嗯,蒂姆·基爾平 (Tim Kilpin) 大約五、六個月前加入,為我們領導玩具。他是一位擁有 40 年玩具行業經驗的資深人士,曾幫助捍衛並創立了多個價值數十億美元的類別,並領導了一些最大的玩具特許經營權。我認為,通常情況下,新領導者需要 18 到 24 個月的時間才能對產品線產生重大影響。我認為他們可以在我們與合作夥伴的合作以及我們如何進入市場方面採取更多的策略。因此,我認為您會看到蒂姆和他的新領導團隊的影響在 2024 年之前會放緩,並在進入 2025 年時擴大。然後我認為市場也是其中的另一個因素。當然,今年迄今為止,我們在玩具類別中已經看到了逆風。我們預計第四季的市場將相對難以預測。但考慮到我們對玩具的長期看漲,我們認為這個市場將回到 2% 至 3% 的歷史成長率。我們看到對遊戲的需求非常高。我們認為孩之寶作為業內最多元化的玩具和遊戲公司處於有利地位。因此,無論市場走向如何,我認為多元化都會對我們有利。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Jaime. What I build on that -- the timeline there as you think about the steps in a turnaround, what we're doing this quarter in the call for the year is we're really cleaning up and resetting the foundation for toy as we head into 2024, there is going to be kind of a very focused view on profitability and how do we quickly reset the profitability of that business while we're going through and kind of reducing complexity, as Chris said, kind of clearing the decks and getting ready for new and sharper innovation as we move to the back end of next year and into 2025. So taking the market out of it and the unpredictability of the market, in our categories where we compete, we are going to do that. We're going to remain aggressive. We're going to compete, and we're going to work to grow share. That's how you should think about just the cadence. It's really resets. We're going to get after profitability in 2024 and get ready for a sharper innovation pipeline in 2025.
海梅.我在此基礎上構建的——當你考慮扭轉局面的步驟時,我們在本季度的電話會議中所做的事情是,當我們進入到2024 年,將對盈利能力產生非常集中的看法,以及我們如何在經歷過程中快速重置該業務的盈利能力,並降低複雜性,正如克里斯所說,清理工作並做好準備隨著我們進入明年年底和2025 年,我們將尋求新的、更尖銳的創新。因此,在我們競爭的類別中,排除市場和市場的不可預測性,我們將這樣做。我們將保持積極進取的態度。我們將競爭,我們將努力擴大份額。這就是你應該如何考慮節奏。真的是重置了我們將在 2024 年實現獲利,並為 2025 年更銳利的創新管道做好準備。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from the line of Drew Crum with Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Drew Crum 和 Stifel。
Andrew Edward Crum - VP and Analyst
Andrew Edward Crum - VP and Analyst
Chris, can you remind us what the content road map looks like for MAGIC in 4Q? And how you grow the franchise in 2024 as you lap -- what appears to be some tougher comps? And then I have a follow-up.
Chris,您能否提醒我們 MAGIC 第四季的內容路線圖是什麼樣的? 2024 年,你如何在單圈中發展自己的特許經營權——哪些比賽看起來會更艱難?然後我有一個後續行動。
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Yes, sure. So for Wizards in the fourth quarter, we have another Lord of the Ring set that will be coming out. We think that will be a bit smaller than what we had in Q2, but pretty solid. We also have a new premier set called the The Lost Caverns of Ixalan, and we just had another universe beyond kind of the Commander release for Doctor Who. As we think about 2024, yes, I mean, MAGIC had a great year, another record year in 2023. But we've been having record years for 13 out of the last 14 years on MAGIC. As I would think about 2024, I certainly think we'll have some more universes beyond releases. As we said, we were surprised on the upside in terms of the initial demand and fan reaction to fall out, which should come into Q1.
是的,當然。因此,對於巫師來說,我們將在第四節推出另一套《魔戒》系列。我們認為這將比第二季的規模要小一些,但相當穩定。我們還有一個名為「依夏蘭失落的洞穴」的新首屈一指的系列,而且我們剛剛推出了《神秘博士》指揮官版本之外的另一個宇宙。當我們想到 2024 年時,是的,我的意思是,MAGIC 度過了偉大的一年,2023 年又是創紀錄的一年。但在過去 14 年中,MAGIC 有 13 年創下了紀錄。正如我對 2024 年的看法,我當然認為除了發布之外我們還會有更多的宇宙。正如我們所說,我們對最初的需求和粉絲對分手的反應感到驚訝,這應該會出現在第一季。
In Q2, I think we have that comp with Lord of the Rings, but we'll have another set coming out called Modern Horizons 3. And we've had keysets in the history of MAGIC that have done $200 million, Lord of the Rings, which officially passed $200 million earlier this week and Modern Horizons 2, which was our previous $200 million set. So we feel pretty good about Modern Horizons 3. And I think it also should be noted given that's not royalty bearing and tends to be more of a collector's product, it also is a pretty nice operating profit opportunity for us as well. And then the back half of the year, we have other sets that we haven't yet announced yet. So I don't want the Wizards team to get mad at me. But generally speaking, we have about 6 to 7 premier sets per year, and we'll be lapping that in 2024.
在第二季度,我認為我們會與《魔戒》進行比較,但我們也會推出另一套遊戲,稱為《摩登新篇3》。在《魔戒》的歷史上,我們的鍵組已經賺了2 億美元。本週早些時候,《摩登新篇 2》正式突破 2 億美元票房,這是我們之前的 2 億美元票房。因此,我們對《摩登新篇3》感覺非常好。而且我認為還應該指出的是,因為它不包含版稅,而且往往更像是收藏家的產品,這對我們來說也是一個相當不錯的運營利潤機會。然後今年下半年,我們還有其他尚未宣布的系列。所以我不想讓巫師隊生我的氣。但一般來說,我們每年大約有 6 到 7 個首播集,我們將在 2024 年完成這項任務。
Andrew Edward Crum - VP and Analyst
Andrew Edward Crum - VP and Analyst
Got it. Okay. Very helpful. And then as a follow-up, just curious if you could update us on the status of the Marvel license. It was good to hear the partnership with Disney and MAGIC. But can you address the company's commitment to retaining this license, as it approaches its renewal.
知道了。好的。很有幫助。作為後續行動,我想知道您能否向我們通報漫威授權的最新情況。很高興聽到與迪士尼和 MAGIC 的合作。但您能否談談該公司在即將續約時保留該許可證的承諾?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Well, I can certainly talk from our side. We -- Walt Disney is our most valuable partnership. It's something that we meet with regularly. We put a lot of product innovation. We put a lot of marketing. We put some of our best people against it. And we're expanding that relationship aggressively across more categories, across more brands, whether they are stand-alone brands like we do for Star Wars and the Avengers or co-brands like we're doing with MAGIC and Marvel. So it's certainly something that we value and are leaning into. And I think you'll see growth from us over the mid- and long term.
嗯,我當然可以從我們這邊談談。我們-華特迪士尼是我們最有價值的合作夥伴。這是我們經常遇到的事情。我們投入了大量的產品創新。我們投入了大量的行銷力道。我們讓一些最優秀的人才反對它。我們正在積極地將這種關係擴展到更多類別、更多品牌,無論它們是像我們為《星際大戰》和《復仇者聯盟》所做的那樣的獨立品牌,還是像我們與《MAGIC》和《漫威》那樣的聯合品牌。所以這肯定是我們重視並傾向的事情。我認為從中長期來看,您會看到我們的成長。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Haas。
Jason Daniel Haas - VP
Jason Daniel Haas - VP
So I just want to check some of the math on MONOPOLY GO! and Baldur's Gate 3 and what it implies for 4Q. So I think you said that for the full year, you're expecting over $90 million from both MONOPOLY GO! and Baldur's Gate 3. And you saw, I think it was $63 million in 3Q. So that implies maybe $30 million or so comes in 4Q, which would be -- I'm getting like maybe like an 8 or 9 percentage point tailwind to Wizards revenue in 4Q. Then your guidance -- you left the guidance for high single-digit growth. So that would imply that ex those 2 licenses, you would see Wizards revenue down like 8% or 9% in 4Q. So one, do I have those numbers right? And if that's correct, why are we seeing that decline in 4Q? Is it a function of timing of the releases or something else? Is it just conservatism? If you could help me explain that. It would be helpful.
所以我只想檢查一下《MONOPOLY GO》中的一些數學知識!以及《博德之門 3》及其對 4Q 的影響。所以我想你說過,你預計全年《MONOPOLY GO!》的收入將超過 9000 萬美元!和《博德之門 3》。你看,我認為第三季的票房收入為 6,300 萬美元。因此,這意味著第四季度可能會帶來 3000 萬美元左右的收入,這可能會為巫師第四季的收入帶來 8 或 9 個百分點的推動力。然後你的指導——你離開了高個位數成長的指導。因此,這意味著除了這 2 個許可證之外,您會看到威世智第四季度的收入下降了 8% 或 9%。那麼第一,我的這些數字對嗎?如果這是正確的,為什麼我們會看到第四季的下滑?這是發佈時間的函數還是其他什麼?這只是保守主義嗎?如果你能幫我解釋一下。這會有幫助的。
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
I'll start really fast and then I'll turn it over to Gina. We see broad-based growth in Wizards for the fourth quarter. So if in kind of doing math camp on the numbers, I think you can get the general tone of cautiousness in our outlook, just given the unpredictability of the near-term market. In terms of your detailed questions, Jason, I'll turn it over to Gina to take you through kind of how we're thinking about it.
我很快就會開始,然後把它交給吉娜。我們預計巫師隊第四季將出現廣泛的成長。因此,如果對數字進行數學訓練,我認為考慮到近期市場的不可預測性,您可以感受到我們對前景的整體謹慎態度。關於你的詳細問題,傑森,我將把它交給吉娜,讓你了解我們是如何思考這個問題的。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Jason, good question. And you've got the math generally right on how to think about Baldur's Gate and MONOPOLY GO! in the fourth quarter. What isn't right is how you're thinking about MAGIC. So as Chris said, from an overall, Wizards will be growing, MAGIC will be growing as well in the fourth quarter. I think the pieces that you're probably not thinking through are some of the other businesses that are rolling up through. So D&D, I think it's down a tick in the fourth quarter. But overall, how you're modeling Baldur's Gate and MONOPOLY GO! is correct.
是的,傑森,好問題。關於如何思考《博德之門》和《MONOPOLY GO》,您已經大致了解了正確的數學知識!在第四季。不正確的是你對 MAGIC 的看法。正如克里斯所說,從整體上看,巫師隊將在第四季度成長,萬智牌也將在第四季度成長。我認為你可能沒有考慮到的是其他一些正在滾動的業務。所以《D&D》,我認為第四季有所下降。但總體而言,您如何為《博德之門》和《MONOPOLY GO!》建模?是正確的。
Jason Daniel Haas - VP
Jason Daniel Haas - VP
Got it. And then as a follow-up question, are you able to size up how much headwind you saw from destocking this year in the Consumer Products business. And my thought there is just as we think about our models for next year, is there an embedded uplift to revenue in 2024 as you lap over some of this destocking? Or was the destocking that we saw just a reflection of more of a return to normalcy because there was restocking in the first half or so of last year? Any color on that would be helpful.
知道了。作為一個後續問題,您是否能夠估算今年消費品業務去庫存帶來的阻力有多大。我的想法是,正如我們思考明年的模型一樣,隨著部分去庫存的完成,2024 年的收入是否會出現內在增長?或者說,我們看到的去庫存只是更多地反映了回歸正常狀態,因為去年上半年左右就有了補貨?任何顏色都會有幫助。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, good question. And I think there's a little bit of both that we will talk to from a modeling standpoint. The onetime you're going to see a lot in fourth quarter, and that was what was embedded in our updated margin guide here. And I would put that at roughly, call it, $50-ish million of onetime cost that is -- that we're putting in either move through inventory at the retailer level, extra marketing to move through the inventory, extra obsolescence cost. So call that roughly a $50 million headwind this year that I would expect as we turn the corner into 2024 becomes a tailwind for us. And to your point, there's always going to be some level of kind of promotion and obsolete all of that as we kind of reset into 2024, but that's $50 million, I would call out as onetime in nature for this year.
是的,好問題。我認為我們將從建模的角度來討論這兩方面的問題。曾經你會在第四季看到很多,這就是我們更新的利潤指南中所包含的內容。我將其粗略地稱為 5000 萬美元左右的一次性成本,即我們在零售商層面上投入的庫存轉移、透過庫存轉移的額外行銷、額外的過時成本。因此,當我們進入 2024 年時,我預計今年大約 5000 萬美元的逆風將成為我們的順風。就你的觀點而言,當我們重新設定到2024 年時,總會有某種程度的促銷活動,而所有這些都會被廢棄,但我認為今年的投資額為5000 萬美元,本質上是一次性的。
Jason Daniel Haas - VP
Jason Daniel Haas - VP
Got it. And that sounds like that's on the cost side. Is there -- was there a revenue headwind from the destocking? Or should we think about it more really impacted on the cost side.
知道了。這聽起來像是在成本方面。去庫存是否會對收入產生不利影響?或者我們應該更深入地考慮它對成本方面的影響。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. I'm putting that all -- yes, I'm putting that somewhat in that $50 million number. Yes.
是的。我把這一切都算進去了——是的,我把這部分算進了 5000 萬美元的數字中。是的。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions from the line of Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅根亞歷山大。
Megan Christine Alexander - VP
Megan Christine Alexander - VP
Yes. I guess maybe just a follow-up on that on the topline. So my -- given that quick math would suggest maybe from that toy and game volume piece, it's a low double-digit decline this year. And similarly in the fourth quarter. So from a top line perspective, can you just maybe put a finer point on how the outlook for the Consumer Products segment was changed as it relates to inventory destocking? And I know it's early, but how you're thinking about the puts and takes for that segment in terms of sales next year. Presumably, you get the planned exits back, hopefully, we're not seeing any more inventory management into next year. And so the wildcard seems to be that toy and game volume line. So can you just help us understand maybe a little bit of how 4Q changed and what you get back next year?
是的。我想也許只是最重要的內容的後續行動。因此,考慮到玩具和遊戲銷售量的快速數學運算表明,今年的下降幅度較低,為兩位數。第四季也是如此。因此,從頂線的角度來看,您能否更詳細地闡述消費品領域的前景如何因庫存去庫存而改變?我知道現在還為時過早,但您如何考慮明年該細分市場的銷售情況。據推測,您可以恢復計劃的退出,希望明年我們不會看到更多的庫存管理。因此,通配符似乎是玩具和遊戲的音量線。那麼您能否幫助我們了解一下第四季的變化以及明年您會得到什麼?
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Sure. What we get back next year, I'm going to go back to the previous answer, $50 million is really the number that I would put in your model of onetime costs that we're not expecting to repeat, we're using that to try to get as clean as we can for '24. As we think about the revenue decline when we said mid- to high teens for the toy business for the year or for the CP segment for the year, there's probably 3 or 4 points that decline that are associated with just us accelerating some of this move through of inventory from like a pure revenue standpoint, I would say, call it, 3 to 4 points of that is this acceleration. On the bottom line, it's $50 million.
當然。明年我們會得到什麼,我要回到之前的答案,5000 萬美元實際上是我在一次性成本模型中放入的數字,我們不希望重複,我們用它來努力在 24 年保持乾淨。當我們考慮今年玩具業務或 CP 部門的收入下降時,可能有 3 或 4 個百分點的下降與我們加速這一舉措有關從純粹收入的角度來看,庫存的增加,我想說,稱之為, 3 到4 個點就是這種加速。底線是 5000 萬美元。
Megan Christine Alexander - VP
Megan Christine Alexander - VP
Right. And 3 to 4 points is relative to the prior guide?
正確的。 3到4分是相對於之前的指導嗎?
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
No, to our updated guide.
不,請參閱我們更新的指南。
Megan Christine Alexander - VP
Megan Christine Alexander - VP
Right. Okay. Okay. That makes sense. And then for the cost savings, $200 million this year, I think you implied you could get to $300 million next year. How much of that from a net perspective is flowing through to the bottom line this year? And what should we expect for next year?
正確的。好的。好的。這就說得通了。然後,對於成本節省,今年 2 億美元,我想您暗示明年可以達到 3 億美元。從淨值角度來看,今年有多少流入淨利?明年我們該期待什麼?
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Perhaps to be too cheeky about it. But I think in short, none of it is flowing to the bottom line this year, just given that it's all going to move through the kind of the inventory line. So I would say there's 0 kind of margin impact from the cost saves next year. And one of our big focus areas internally is moving us from talking about gross savings to talking about net savings, as a key area of focus as we move into 2024. Next year will be the year where you'll start to see real margin acceleration from all of those cost savings initiatives. But I mean, this year, it's all going to inventory.
也許是太厚顏無恥了。但我認為簡而言之,考慮到所有這些都將透過庫存線轉移,今年所有這些都不會流入利潤。所以我想說明年成本省對利潤率的影響是零。我們內部的一大重點領域是將我們從談論總節省轉向談論淨節省,這是我們進入 2024 年的一個重點關注領域。明年將是您開始看到實際利潤率加速增長的一年來自所有這些成本節約舉措。但我的意思是,今年,一切都會去庫存。
I should also elaborate to say we are making investments in our growth initiatives. So some of it did go to invest behind digital games. Some of it went to invest behind new capabilities that were aligned with strategies such as like analytics that we had talked about earlier in the year, but anything else is going against the inventory line.
我還應該詳細說明我們正在對我們的成長計劃進行投資。所以其中一些確實投資於數字遊戲。其中一些投資於與我們今年早些時候討論過的分析等策略一致的新功能,但其他任何東西都與庫存線相反。
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Yes, I would say it's about half for long-term, half for short term. And Megan, I think as you think about it for next year, we'll be leaning in more, and we actively are now. And I think you'll start seeing the flow-through of that probably in the later part of Q1 and building into Q2 and Q3.
是的,我想說,大約一半是長期的,一半是短期的。梅根,我認為,當你考慮明年的問題時,我們將更加努力,而且我們現在正在積極這樣做。我認為您可能會在第一季的後期開始看到這一流程,並融入第二季和第三季。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧拉斯奇克 (Stephen Laszczyk)。
Stephen Neild Laszczyk - Research Analyst
Stephen Neild Laszczyk - Research Analyst
Maybe just a follow-up on cost efficiencies for Gina. You're making some good progress on that front. Could you maybe talk a little bit more about key areas of the cost structures where you feel like you're particularly making progress? And if there's any potential upside to the $300 million as we go through the course of next year? And then maybe one for Chris, on digital, away from Baldur's Gate and MONOPOLY GO!, could you talk a little bit more about the pipeline or momentum you're seeing in other games that could potentially make an outsized contribution to growth in the digital segment over the next few quarters?
也許只是吉娜成本效率的後續行動。你在這方面取得了一些很好的進展。能否多談談成本結構中您認為特別進展的關鍵領域?明年這 3 億美元有沒有潛在的上升空間?然後,克里斯可能會在數位方面,遠離《博德之門》和《大富翁GO!》,您能否多談談您在其他遊戲中看到的管道或勢頭,這些遊戲可能會對數位領域的成長做出巨大貢獻未來幾季的細分市場?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Sure, I will defer to Gina first and then I'll follow up with digital.
當然,我會先聽從吉娜的意見,然後再跟進數字。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Okay. So on the cost savings side, I think we're making really good progress across our supply chain, particularly this year in '23. Our focus has been within logistics. So the majority of the cost saves within supply chain have come through that logistics space. As we look at '24 and potential upside to the $300 million, I'm not going to commit to a number right now in 2024, but I will commit to bullishness and our ability to kind of deliver and overdeliver that number. There's a few areas of focus for us as we move into next year. So within the supply chain, this year was logistics. Next year, it's going to be more about procurement and manufacturing. So that's -- there's some low-hanging fruit there that we'll continue to drive after within the supply chain. Also on complexity and just getting complexity out of the network, really focusing on our most profitable and kind of effective and efficient SKUs, taking cost out of the products as we think about designing our product and designing to value that is going to generate some good savings for us and really improve the profitability of our toy business. And then lastly, on the corporate overhead, we have made some progress on that in 2023, reducing the overall overhead structure. There is more to do there. And we will see that slow in the early part of 2024.
好的。因此,在節省成本方面,我認為我們在整個供應鏈中取得了非常好的進展,特別是今年 23 年。我們的重點是物流。因此,供應鏈內的大部分成本節省都是透過物流空間來實現的。當我們展望 24 年以及 3 億美元的潛在上漲空間時,我現在不會承諾 2024 年的具體數字,但我將致力於看漲以及我們實現和超額實現這一數字的能力。進入明年,我們有幾個重點領域。因此,在供應鏈中,今年是物流。明年,將更多地關注採購和製造。所以,我們將繼續在供應鏈中推動一些容易實現的目標。還有複雜性,以及從網路中消除複雜性,真正專注於我們最有利可圖的、有效且高效的 SKU,在我們考慮設計產品和設計價值時降低產品成本,從而產生一些好的結果為我們節省開支並真正提高我們玩具業務的盈利能力。最後,在企業管理費用方面,我們在 2023 年取得了一些進展,減少了整體管理費用結構。那裡還有更多事情要做。我們將在 2024 年初看到這一速度放緩。
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Yes. And Stephen, on digital, a couple of things to note. So definitely, there will be a long tail on Baldur's Gate 3 and a multiyear long tail on MONOPOLY GO!. I think those 2 versus the $90 million this year will take a step back, but it's nowhere near 100% step back. You're probably talking maybe a 40% haircut on what we achieved this year, but tailed out across 4 quarters. And then we have new deals in development all the time. So I consider digital licensing a very bullish case for Hasbro. There's a lot of demand for our IP and it's everything from integrations with Roblox and Minecraft to a variety of new mobile games and PC and console games. And then I think as you think about beyond 2024 into '25 and beyond, I definitely think what MONOPOLY GO! and D&D with Baldur's Gate 3 had showed is there is a very, very high demand from our fans for new digital content. We are seeing that in terms of our own internal studios and in the collaborations that we have. So Baldur's Gate 3 is not going to be a one-off. There will be more great D&D style content and MONOPOLY GO! if it scales the way that I think it's scaling right now, that is going to be a very long-lived and lucrative game for Scopely and Hasbro.
是的。史蒂芬,關於數位化,有幾件事需要注意。因此,《博德之門 3》肯定會出現長尾,《MONOPOLY GO!》也會出現多年長尾。我認為這 2 筆資金相對於今年的 9,000 萬美元將會有所退步,但遠未達到 100% 的退步。您可能會說,我們今年取得的成績可能會減少 40%,但在 4 個季度後就出現了下滑。然後我們一直在開發新的交易。因此,我認為數位許可對孩之寶來說是一個非常樂觀的案例。人們對我們的 IP 有許多需求,從與 Roblox 和 Minecraft 的整合到各種新的手機遊戲以及 PC 和主機遊戲。然後我想,當你考慮 2024 年之後到 25 年及以後時,我肯定會想到《壟斷》會是什麼樣子! 《龍與地下城》和《博德之門 3》表明,我們的粉絲對新的數位內容有著非常非常高的需求。我們從我們自己的內部工作室和我們的合作中看到了這一點。所以《博德之門 3》不會是一次性的。將會有更多精彩的D&D風格內容和MONOPOLY GO!如果它能像我現在認為的那樣擴展,那麼對於 Scopely 和 Hasbro 來說,這將是一款非常長壽且利潤豐厚的遊戲。
Stephen Neild Laszczyk - Research Analyst
Stephen Neild Laszczyk - Research Analyst
Got it. And just to make sure I got the 2024 math on Baldur's Gate, MONOPOLY GO!, correct, it sounds like maybe $10 million a quarter in tailwind from those 2 properties, 40% of the 9-year, [$100] million from this year. Is that correct?
知道了。為了確保我得到了2024 年《博德之門》、《大富翁》的數學數據,正確的是,聽起來這2 處房產每季可能帶來1000 萬美元的順風車,佔今年9 年[1億美元] 百萬美元的40% 。那是對的嗎?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Yes, rough and tough, that would be a decent one to have.
是的,粗糙而堅韌,那將是一個不錯的選擇。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions are from the line of Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Arpine Kocharyan。
Arpine Kocharyan - Director and Analyst
Arpine Kocharyan - Director and Analyst
Going back to a little bit near term for a second. You mentioned taking share in key categories you're in for Q4 and your consumer products business is down something like 17% implied for Q4 based on the guidance today. And even when you remove exited licenses, that's still down double digit in underlying in terms of shipments. Does that imply lower industry POS than the 10% we've seen so far, maybe a little bit worse into October. But how are you taking share against that? That means the industry's probably a little bit worse versus what you're doing. Could you just talk to that for a second? I have a quick follow-up.
讓我們回到近期的話題。您提到在第四季度佔據關鍵類別的份額,根據今天的指導,您的消費品業務在第四季度下降了 17% 左右。即使您刪除了已登出的許可證,出貨量仍然會下降兩位數。這是否意味著行業 POS 低於我們迄今為止所看到的 10%,甚至到 10 月可能會更糟。但你如何看待這一點呢?這意味著這個行業可能比你正在做的事情更糟。你能談談這個嗎?我有一個快速跟進。
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Well, I would say short term, we have a cautious outlook on the holiday. And I think anyone who says they know how the holiday is going to go. They must have a crystal ball because this has been a tough one to predict. That said, we're long-term bulls on where Toy is going to go. It's a resilient category, and we definitely think it's going to come back. For the short term, given the unpredictability, we're taking a cautious outlook on our view of the market and in our view of our execution. We're leaning in, we're going to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves, and we think we're going to build share as a result of that. But I don't think we have a real solid view on where the market is going to go other than, it's going to be late breaking and heavily deal focused. And the nature of it being late breaking, I think, is going to change the relationship between sell-in and sell-through. So I think replan is going to be on the later side of the holiday. And likely, if the holiday does better than maybe what our cautious outlook does, that will be a tailwind for Q1.
嗯,我想說的是,短期而言,我們對假期前景持謹慎態度。我想任何說他們知道假期將如何度過的人。他們一定有一個水晶球,因為這很難預測。也就是說,我們長期看好 Toy 的發展方向。這是一個有彈性的類別,我們確信它會捲土重來。就短期而言,鑑於不可預測性,我們對市場和執行的看法持謹慎態度。我們正在努力,我們將利用出現的機會,我們認為我們將因此而建立份額。但我認為我們對市場將走向何方沒有真正可靠的看法,除了市場將是較晚爆發且高度關注交易之外。我認為,它的遲到突破的本質將改變銷售和銷售之間的關係。所以我認為重新計劃將在假期後期進行。如果假期表現比我們謹慎的預期更好,這可能會成為第一季的順風車。
Arpine Kocharyan - Director and Analyst
Arpine Kocharyan - Director and Analyst
Okay. Chris. And then a quick follow-up in terms of operating profit structure for 2024, you're exiting, obviously, a very low margin business with entertainment at the same time base just came down quite a bit for 2023, and you have long-term target that's far above that 13%. Could you talk through maybe 2024 margin puts and takes as we think over the next 12 months, really?
好的。克里斯。然後就 2024 年的營業利潤結構進行快速跟進,顯然,您將退出利潤率非常低的娛樂業務,同時基數在 2023 年將大幅下降,並且您將擁有長期利潤遠高於 13% 的目標。您能否談談我們對未來 12 個月的看法,也許是 2024 年的保證金賣出和保證金收取,真的嗎?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Yes. I'll give you a quick 20-second overview and then turn it over to Gina for the details. We see a pretty near-term snapback for our margins, given some of the short-term investments we're making in the holiday to drive share and keep momentum going and some very solid benefits both our operational excellence program in terms of our cost structure and simplification of exiting the majority of entertainment. So I think we maintain bullishness on our ability to achieve our long-term margin targets.
是的。我將向您提供 20 秒的快速概述,然後將其交給吉娜以了解詳細資訊。考慮到我們在假期期間進行的一些短期投資以提高份額並保持發展勢頭,以及我們的卓越營運計劃在成本結構方面的一些非常堅實的好處,我們看到我們的利潤率在短期內會出現相當大的反彈以及退出大多數娛樂活動的簡化。因此,我認為我們對實現長期利潤目標的能力保持樂觀。
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Gina Goetter - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, the additional color I'd add to -- I keep coming back to the $50 million number. That's a couple of margin points that come back to us next year. We also have the D&D impairment that if you remember, we took that in Q2 of last year, that was a material onetime item that comes back to us. So there's just some kind of -- I would put that in the camp of accounting good guys or is that bad guys this year that become good guys for us next year that help us on the margin front? And then as we think about toy and being laser focused on improving the profitability on toy, the kind of all the work on complexity, all of the work on the cost structure on overhead, et cetera, will kind of accelerate our efforts on the margin front through the first part of next year.
是的,我要添加的額外色彩——我不斷地回到 5000 萬美元這個數字。這是明年我們會回到的幾個利潤點。我們還有 D&D 減值,如果你還記得的話,我們在去年第二季就採取了減值,那是一個重要的一次性項目,回到了我們身邊。所以,我會把它歸入會計好人陣營,還是今年的壞人明年會成為我們的好人,在利潤方面幫助我們?然後,當我們考慮玩具並專注於提高玩具的盈利能力時,所有關於複雜性的工作,所有關於管理費用成本結構的工作等等,都會加速我們在利潤方面的努力明年上半年。
Operator
Operator
Our final question is from the line of Andrew Uerkwitz with Jefferies.
我們的最後一個問題來自 Andrew Uerkwitz 和 Jefferies。
Andrew Paul Uerkwitz - Equity Analyst
Andrew Paul Uerkwitz - Equity Analyst
Chris, I guess this question is probably for you because I think you were here when the game started. Licensing games from toys and movies isn't really anything new, but it feels like we're seeing bigger and better successes today. Just curious why you think that is? And like what is Hasbro doing to enabling that?
克里斯,我想這個問題可能是問你的,因為我認為比賽開始時你就在這裡。玩具和電影遊戲的授權並不是什麼新鮮事,但今天我們似乎看到了更大更好的成功。只是好奇為什麼這麼認為?孩之寶正在採取哪些措施來實現這一目標?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Yes. No worries Andrew. Yes. Baldur's Gate 3 was my first deal at Wizards of the Coast. I think I went out to get -- had dinner with [Swen at Larians] like in the fall of 2016, and we inked a deal in 2017. So I'm pretty proud about how everything kind of turned out. That's nice to see when you make a long-term bet. I think what you saw this year with video games and mobile games and movies whether on the video game side, it's a MONOPOLY GO!, which is the #1 mobile game release of 2023, Baldur's Gate 3, which I think is sitting at a 96 Metacritic score on PC and console or in movies, whether it's the ongoing success of TRANSFORMERS, the Barbie movie, Mario, is that there's a high demand for play-based brands and play-based brands are really becoming the dominant brands about how people engage and what people love. I was a shocking stack that I should have known better because it just mimics my lifestyle. Circana came up with a report that showed the biggest demographic of video gamers today isn't sub 22-year-old. It's people 45 years and older. And it's also the fastest-growing demographic of gamers in the world. So I'm pretty bullish on the industry of play on the strength of brand portfolios that are based on play. And I think Hasbro has a deck of cards in terms of our brands and our capabilities that I wouldn't trade with anyone. I think that's a long-term bull case for the company and for the industry as a whole.
是的。不用擔心安德魯。是的。 《博德之門 3》是我在威世智的第一筆交易。我想我出去——就像 2016 年秋天那樣,與 [Swen at Larians] 共進晚餐,我們在 2017 年簽署了協議。所以我對一切的結果感到非常自豪。當您進行長期賭注時,很高興看到這一點。我認為今年您在電玩遊戲、手機遊戲和電影方面看到的情況,無論是在電玩遊戲方面,都是《MONOPOLY GO!》,這是2023 年排名第一的手機遊戲,《博德之門3 》,我認為它正處於領先地位。 Metacritic 在PC、遊戲機或電影上的得分為 96,無論是《變形金剛》、《芭比娃娃》電影、《馬裡奧》的持續成功,都表明人們對基於遊戲的品牌有很高的需求,而基於遊戲的品牌正在真正成為人們如何看待遊戲的主導品牌。參與和人們喜歡什麼。我是一個令人震驚的堆棧,我應該更了解它,因為它只是模仿我的生活方式。 Circana 發布的一份報告顯示,當今電子遊戲玩家的最大群體並不是 22 歲以下的年輕人。這是45歲及以上的人。它也是世界上遊戲玩家成長最快的地區。因此,我非常看好遊戲產業,因為基於遊戲的品牌組合的實力。我認為孩之寶在我們的品牌和能力方面擁有一副牌,我不會與任何人交易。我認為這對公司和整個行業來說是一個長期的牛市。
Andrew Paul Uerkwitz - Equity Analyst
Andrew Paul Uerkwitz - Equity Analyst
And then just as a follow-up, and I appreciate that answer. How do you -- how will you balance or try to balance the -- your well versing games, these things aren't necessarily like the toy cycle where it takes a lot longer and time and money. How do you kind of balance that with the traditional nature of Hasbro, which is trying to get everything ready for a particular holiday season?
然後作為後續行動,我很欣賞這個答案。你如何——你將如何平衡或嘗試平衡——你熟悉的遊戲,這些東西不一定像玩具週期那樣需要更長的時間、時間和金錢。您如何平衡這一點與孩之寶的傳統性質,即努力為特定假期做好一切準備?
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Christian Cocks - CEO & Director
Well, I mean, we have 2 separate business units that have 2 very different go-to-markets. But when combined together under one roof creates a very well-diversified portfolio. That can help us weather ups and downs in any given category or any given set of market conditions. So I think especially with something like this holiday, where the market remains rather unpredictable. It's great to have diversification, and it's a real strength of the company. We're fortunate in that Wizards of the Coast is a very margin-rich business that's highly cash generative effectively based on Wizards of the Coast and our digital licensing revenue, we can self-fund a fairly significant set of long-term capital investments and we've diversified that risk pretty effectively between licensing, Games as a Services, our tabletop business and our own internal publishing build-out. And that business gives us a nice cushion to help us with restructuring and turning around of the toy business, which we remain long-term bolt-on.
嗯,我的意思是,我們有 2 個獨立的業務部門,它們有 2 個截然不同的市場定位。但當在一個屋簷下組合在一起時,就會創造出一個非常多元化的投資組合。這可以幫助我們應對任何特定類別或任何特定市場條件的起伏。所以我認為尤其是在像這個假期這樣的情況下,市場仍然相當難以預測。多元化是件好事,這是公司的真正優勢。我們很幸運,威世智是一家利潤率非常高的企業,基於威世智和我們的數位授權收入,它能夠有效地產生大量現金,我們可以自籌資金進行相當大的長期資本投資,並且我們在授權、遊戲即服務、桌面業務和我們自己的內部出版業務之間非常有效地分散了風險。這項業務為我們提供了很好的緩衝,幫助我們重組和扭轉玩具業務,我們仍然長期依賴玩具業務。
We think that IP portfolio is fantastic and we really like the team that we've set up there. So our Q4 numbers weren't what we wanted, but we're taking -- we're looking at the market, we're being realistic about it. we're investing so that we can create a runway for that team to be successful in 2024 and beyond.
我們認為知識產權組合非常棒,我們非常喜歡我們在那裡建立的團隊。因此,我們的第四季度數據不是我們想要的,但我們正在考慮市場,我們對此持現實態度。我們正在投資,以便為該團隊在 2024 年及以後取得成功創造一條跑道。
Andrew Paul Uerkwitz - Equity Analyst
Andrew Paul Uerkwitz - Equity Analyst
And congrats on that Baldur's Gate 3 game. That's great.
恭喜博德之門 3 遊戲。那太棒了。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Debbie Hancock for closing remarks.
謝謝。此時,我們的問答環節已經結束了。我現在將把電話轉給黛比·漢考克做總結發言。
Debbie Hancock - SVP of IR
Debbie Hancock - SVP of IR
Thank you, Rob, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. The replay will be available on our website in approximately 2 hours, and management's prepared remarks will also be posted on the Investor Relations portion of our website following this call. Thank you.
謝謝羅布,也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。重播將在大約 2 小時後在我們的網站上發布,管理層準備好的評論也將在本次電話會議後發佈在我們網站的投資者關係部分。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。