Hafnia Ltd (HAFN) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Hafnia's fourth quarter 2025 financial results presentation. We will begin shortly. You'll be brought through today's presentation by Hafner CEO Mikael Skov, CFO Perry Van Echtelt, Soren Winther, VP Commercial, and Thomas Andersen, EVP, Head of investor relations. They will be pleased to address any questions after the presentation.

(Operator Instructions)

During this conference call, some statements may be considered forward-looking, reflecting management's current expectations. These statements involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are beyond Hafnia's control, that could cause actual results, performance, or plans to differ significantly from those expressed or implied.

Additionally, this conference call does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Hafnia's CEO Mikael Skov.

Thank you, and hello, everyone.

Thanks for joining. Hafnia's fourth quarter earnings call.

I'm Mikael Skov, the CEO of Hafnia.

With me today, our CFO Perry Van Echtelt, our VP of commercial, Soren Winther and our Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen.

We released our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results earlier today, and you can find them on our website.

On today's call, we'll walk you through our Q4 highlights, the latest market developments, and our outlook, and then give an update on our financial position. We'll also tighten our sustainability initiatives before opening for questions.

Let's move to the next slide.

Before we proceed, I would like to go through our safe harbor statement. The information discussed on this call is based on the information we have today, which may include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from these statements. Nothing presented on this call should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities.

Thank you for your attention. With that, let's begin with a review of our results for the quarter.

Next slide, please.

So we announced slide number 4.

The product tanker market started 2025 on a softer note, but strengthened through the second half and remained seasonally firm in the fourth quarter.

This helped us close the year on a strong footing.

In Q4, we delivered our strongest quarter of 2025 with a net profit of $109.7 million. For the full year, that brings us to a net profit of $339.7 million another year of solid performance.

As part of our fleet renewal strategy. We continued divesting older vessels at attractive prices. So far in Q1, we've sold two MR vessels and committed to sell two more MRs, four LR1s, and four Handys.

During the quarter, we also took delivery of the Ecomar Gironde, the fourth and final dual fuel IMO 2 in our Ecomar joint venture.

In December we acquired 13.97% of Tom's shares from Oaktree. Since then, we've engaged with Tom's stakeholders, including his board, to explore the merits of a potential combination.

We see a strong strategic rationale with commercial, operational, and financial benefits for shareholders, as well as enhanced market presence and trading liquidity.

In our view, a combined platform would create a clear market leader in scale and performance within the shipping industry.

Let's move to the next slide.

Next, I'd like to highlight Hafnia's key investment attributes.

We are a global leader in the product and chemical tanker space. Operating one of the largest and most diversified fleets in the industry. At the end of Q4, we owned or chartered in 123 vessels with an average age of 9.7 years. Well below the industry average of 14.1 years.

As we continue to sell older tonnage, our fleet will become even younger, more efficient, and better positioned for stronger earnings, as well as significant savings on global carbon taxes in the future, which are aimed at penalizing older vessels with large fuel oil consumption.

Quarter end, our net asset value was about $3.5 billion which translates to $7.04 per share, or NOK70.79.

Beyond our own fleet, we also operate around 65 third-party vessels across eight pools. These contributed roughly $30 million in earnings for the full year of 2025.

Let's move to the next slide.

Another key investment attribute for Hafnia is our transparent dividend policy. We've now paid dividends for 16 consecutive quarters. And our goal is to keep them sustainable and predictable through the cycle. At the end of the fourth quarter, our net LTV stood at 24.9%. And in line with our policy, this means we are declaring an 80% payout ratio for Q4. That results in a total cash dividend of $87.7 million or $17.62 per share.

For shareholders receiving dividends in NOK, the exchange rate will be based on the value date 2 business days before payment.

For the full year 2025, that brings total dividends to $271.7 million or $55.57 per share. Representing a yield at about 10%.

When we include the share buybacks completed in 2025, we returned 88.1% of our net profit to shareholders.

We're now on slide number 7.

Our strong performance is further demonstrated. Across different time periods, our total shareholder return shows that we have consistently delivered superior returns. At the same time, when we benchmark our cost base against our closest peers, we are pleased with our positioning, which allows us to operate at highly competitive levels while supporting sustainable value creation. And also, one of the main reasons why we see substantial value in consolidation in our sector.

Next slide, please.

Soren Winther, our VP of commercial, will now share the industry review and market outlook.

Thank you, Mikael.

Let me start with a quick review of the product tanker market in Q4 2025. And then I will walk through our outlook for the months ahead.

Overall, 2025 was supported by continued growth in refined oil exports and higher crude oil exports. This drove a significant shift of coded LRI vessels into dirty trading. Tightenings apply within the clean segment. The product angle market stayed seasonally firm through the 4th quarter into 2026.

We have seen a surge in both dirty and clean product volumes on the water. Dirty volumes have largely been driven by sanctioned barrels awaiting buyers, while clean volumes reflect strong export flows out of the US Gulf, the Middle East, and China. These flows have benefited from reduced demand for Russian refined products, which has increased demand for non-sanctioned supply and supported ton miles.

Here we can see the relationship between products anchor on days and earnings. Historically, clean petroleum product volumes on the water have shown a strong correlation with ton days. And on days in turn correlate well with earnings.

That said, the earnings recovery for the 4th quarter was more moderate.

The main reason is the large number of new build deliveries in 2025, combined with very limited scrapping to offset the fleet growth. Together these factors have cap the upside in freight rates. Even so, area-specific tightness has remained an important market driver. In particular, the US Gulf continues to see sustained historically high earnings in the clean product segment.

This slide shows the improvement in demand fundamentals. If we look at year on year to mild development for clean products, we can see a clear growth trend going back to 2020. This trend is also reflected in cargo volumes, which are now at their highest levels in 9 years. This reinforces the resilience in global oil demand and shows how ongoing geopolitical disruptions continue to reshape trade flows.

On the dirty side, cargo volumes have been relatively stable, but dirty petroleum product ton miles have rebounded sharply, up by around 2 billion ton miles in 2026. This reflects the impact of trade route dislocations linked to sanctioned vessels and fuels which have lengthened voice distances and pushed 10 miles higher.

Moving on to the supply side, and even though we saw a large number of new build deliveries in 2025, The overall net fleet growth for product tankers has stayed limited.

A major reason for this is the continued impact of crude tanker sanctions. Which had pushed a significant share of LR2 vessels into Aframax dirty trading.

In fact, in 2025, around 80% of coded LR2 new build capacity, or the equivalent thereof, moved into the dirty market. And now more than half of the coded LA2 FMX fleet is operating in dirty petroleum products trade.

Specific to the clean LR2 segment, it is worth noting that the competing fleet count is at its lowest in 3 years.

Beyond the LR2 migration we just discussed, sanctioned vessels also play a major role in tightening fleet supply.

In 2025, the UK, UN, and OFAC collectively sanctioned more than 500 tankers. Most of them crewed vessels. The EU's 20th sanctions package is expected to add another 43 vessels to the count. The class and names of these vessels are yet to be identified.

Further sanctioning of the shadow fleet throughout 2026 can be anticipated. This is supportive for both crude and product tankers, as sanctioning effectively reduces available fleet supply and limited crude to clean cannibalization, keeping overall supply versus demand balanced.

Importantly, there's a broad consensus amongst insurers, major flag states, and government advisory bodies that sanctions on it is unlikely to return to the mainstream trade, even if sanctions are eventually lifted.

Despite the already large number of sanctioned vessels, data from Lloyd's list shows that around 1,000 additional non-sanctioned shadow fleet vessels are still trading within sanctioned regions. Flag hopping remains a common practice within the Shadow Fleet, as evidenced by the high share of fraudulent or rapidly changing flags.

A significant proportion of both the sanctioned fleet and the broader shadow fleet is more than 20 years old. That points to our highest grabbing potential.

Beyond the factors we have already discussed, the continued aging of the fleet and the potential for scrapping further support the supply outlook, between 2026 and 2028, we expect about 43 million deadweight tons of new build deliveries across the handy to LR2 Aframax segments.

Over the same period, potential scrapping could reach roughly 38 million deadweight tons based on tubercles scrabbing ages of 25 years.

Looking a bit further ahead, another 29 million deadweight tons could leave the fleet between 2029 and 2030.

Another important point is that 65% of the new build program consists of coded LR2s. If we apply the historical crude migration factor of about 72.5% to these future LR2 deliveries, a large part of the apparent supply will be absorbed into the dirty market.

The right-hand graph illustrates the current new build program is more than manageable, provided the scrapping of scrap age non-sanctioned vessels and sanctioned tonnage above 20 years of age.

Slide number fifteen.

Bringing together the impacts of LR2 migration and vessel sanctions, we can see that overall clean petroleum products capacity growth in 2025 was limited. For the full year, around 12 million coded deadweight tons have been delivered.

He had only about 1.4 million dead weights. Have effectively entered clean trading. This translates to approximately 0.6% net growth in clean product tanker supply for the year.

We noticed a trend of broker reports increasingly using a 20-year age cutoff when assessing the competitive fleet. Our models instead apply a 25 plus year threshold, reflecting the rising scrap ages. This shift is largely driven by recent political unrest. Since 2022, transportation demand across the Handy to VLCC segments has increased by 4 million barrels per day.

Over the same period, tankers aged twenty to twenty-four years have seen a demand rise by 4 million barrels, while vessels over 2025 years have seen a 1-million-barrel increase.

These trends demonstrate that all the tonnage remains commercially relevant and should be considered when evaluating the effective supply-demand balance. Inventory levels remain an important indicator for the product tanker market.

In Europe, diesel inventories drew down sharply through most of 2025 before rising again in the fourth quarter to meet seasonal winter demand.

Refinery margins have softened since Q4 2025, especially in Europe, while US refiners have benefited from access to newly discounted Venezuelans sour crude.

The forward curve is trending upward, largely driven by crude back gradation which supports near-term fundamentals. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic for Q2 2026.

Moving on to the next slide.

Where Perry, our CFO will now bring you through our financial developments.

Thanks for that, sir, and if we move to the next slide, please.

We delivered our strongest quarterly results of 2025, supported by the seasonally firm market conditions in Q4, driven by growth in oil production and export volumes. For the fourth quarter, we reported an adjusted EBITDA of $149.7 million and a net profit of $109.7 million which includes $9.5 million from gains on vessel sales. Our fee-based businesses contributed $6.9 million in fee income. So for the full year 2025, we recorded a net profit of $339.7 million with a return on equity of 14.8% and a return on invested capital of 11.2%. If we then move to the next page to the balance sheet.

Our net LTV ratio increased from 20.5% at the end of the third quarter to 24.9% at the end of Q4. This increase was primarily due to our investment in TORM, which raised the debt level and was included at market value in the calculation. This was partially offset by higher vessel valuations and a strong operational cash flow generation.

We continue to maintain a strong liquidity profile with $104 million in cash on hand and an additional $324 million in undrawn capacity for a total of around $430 million of availability.

We move to the next page onto the operating summary.

We continue to generate strong operating cash flows, and TCE rates have improved for the 4th consecutive quarter since Q4 2024, with a strong momentum continuing into the 1st quarter of 2026.

For Q4, TCE income stood at $259 million with an average TCE of $27,346 per day.

As in the previous quarters throughout 2025, our Q4 results were impacted by scheduled dry dockings, which accounted for approximately 550 off-hire days. This was around 120 days higher than expected due to unscheduled repairs for 3 vessels. We expect dry docking activity to continue into 2026, but the number of off-hire days will decline significantly compared to 2025.

Across 25, we dry docked around 40 vessels and expect to complete around another 20 vessels in 2026. So, with most of the dry dockings behind us and freight markets recovering, we're well positioned for improved utilization and stronger earnings momentum throughout 2026.

Then let's move on to the next slide.

The recovery in freight market is further evident here. As of the February 11, we have secured 76% of our Q1 earning days at an average rate of $29,979 per day, well above our operational cash flow breakeven for 26 or below $13,000 per day, highlighting the strong earnings leverage in the current market.

For the entire year of 2026, we already have 33% of earning days covered at an average rate of $27,972 per day, as most of our LR2s have secured long-term time charter contracts.

So based on Q1 and full year covered rates, as well as looking at analysts' consensus, 2026 points towards another year of strong earnings.

Then Mikael, over to you for the next few slides.

Thank you.

We're on slide twenty-five.

Let me now turn on Hafnia's sustainability strategy and goals.

As a global leader in the product tanker segment, we take our role in shaping the maritime ecosystem seriously. We maintain the highest operational and environmental standards and are committed to making a positive impact. Across the supply chain, we work closely with strategic partners, regulators, and international bodies to co-develop solutions to the industry's challenges.

Moving on to the next slide.

Here we showcase some of the strategic initiatives we've been working on to strengthen our competitive edge. For example, we are advancing our technological capabilities through our strategic investment in Complexio. Complexio acts as an enterprise intelligence layer that automatically understands how an organization operates by mapping human behavior across its system. Enabling proactive decision support and intelligent automation across the enterprise.

Next slide.

Looking ahead, we remain encouraged by the fundamentals of the product angle market. Although 2026 will see a significant number of new deliveries, The impact of sanctioned vessels and the ongoing LR2 transition will help ease effective market supply. I'm confident in the strength of the underlying demand fundamentals and proud that we have continued to deliver solid results while maintaining our 80% dividend payout ratio. Recording a total shelter return of 33% over the past year.

We will continue to exercise discipline, financial management, and pursue strategic opportunities that enhance our competitive position.

With that, our presentation concludes.

I'd now like to open the call for questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Okay, great. So, let's get started. Frode, can I ask you to unmute yourself, please?

Yes.

Thank you.

I wanted to first discuss the LR2 slash Crude Aframax, spread we're seeing today.

Are you surprised that, given the switching we have seen that, there's still, 25,000 per day premium to accrue Aframax, and does that mean that, you, we should expect even more LR2s to move into dirty trades?

Well, it is really happening as we speak in any case. So, the spread between the LR2s and the Aframax and the larger segment in reality already now causes, more ships to enter into Aframax trade for sure. From a spot market perspective, it's more or less to the tune of, an old map from the Middle East at the moment with the Middle islet coming over. You hardly see any of the ships coming back from the Western Hemisphere, where once they get to the other side, they actually enter into the Aframax trade.

So, the transition is still going on, and, as some of the earlier slides showed, we, we're actually having the lowest count of clean trading LR2s for a number of years, which makes the market for the immediate months ahead super tight in the Middle East.

Yeah, right, so I wanted to, I'm curious about your view on the seasonality here because, Q1 and Q4 is traditionally viewed as like the highest points, but given what's happening in the crude market, super strong crude rates, Aframax is very strong, and as you said, LR2 is still moving into dirty trades. Do you, could we see? Like shifts in the seasonality that maybe Q2 would be better than normal or etc.

I think there's a lot of, political or geopolitical unrest, that is linked to this, and nonetheless, the crisis ongoing in, Iran versus the US. So I think there is a risk premium, that relates to some of the hype that you're seeing at the moment. Having said that, I mean, we are in the quarter where most delays are appearing, bad weather, and really reflected on the earnings for sure.

On a fundamental basis, I think the Aframax is, if you, if we just focus on those, Venezuela coming into play, which is a Swiss Aframax place, it gives an innovation to the market and more turn mile really on the Aframaxs.

You have the Trans Mountain pipeline from Vancouver over to the Eastern Hemisphere. That has been another addition that really happened last year, but it still has its effect. And then you have the export out of South America coming into P3 also related to the Aframax. So, on a general note, I think there's a lot of good things, including sanctioning, speaking for the Aframax and yes, on the basis of geopolitics, you could have a second quarter that just looks stronger than normal historical averages would say, yeah.

Yeah, interesting.

On the MRs, are we seeing any effects from this EU regulations that came in January 1, I guess, on this. You know that the refineries can't use Russian crude, so maybe the Turkish refined products are shifting away from Europe. Are you seeing that impacting the MRs?

Yeah, I think it's more a, it's more a global perspective, on a general note where you are, you're seeing more legit barrels having to travel on the mainstream fleet on a general note, looking at the, Europe and Mediterranean for the air mass, that's probably the weakest. The weakest area and it has been for a long time, one, because of the lag in volume coming out of Russia that we used to have years back, and second of all, because of the export flows, maybe out of Turkey as well. I don't think it means that much in the, in the space, but lacking in Europe, then again, massive, supply out of the US Gulf that is really driving the entire Western Hemisphere.

Right. Fair enough. Okay, I'll turn it over.

Thank you. Do we have any more questions via the raise hand function?

I'm not actually seeing anything there, so I will then move on to check the chat.

So, we have a question from Tony. So, any sign currently of increased scrapping of sanctioned vessels? Perhaps Soren and you could take that one.

Yeah, I can do that.

I think we have seen a couple of ships that, has been actually, allowed to be scrapped in India, but, to my knowledge, it's only a couple so far. I think the important bit here is that, the Indians seems to, have, made it clear that, they will be able to accept scrapping of, sanctioned tonnage.

And that's the first step rather than having, taking bombs, sitting idle in bases around the world. So, I don't think we can say that there's a lot of ongoing scrapping yet, but at least the potential to happen has been opened.

Okay, thank you, Soren. Do we have any more questions coming through in either the chat or the Q&A function?

Thank you, Tony, for your comment. We have another question coming through on any reason why Hafnia isn't moving more LR2 into the Aframax trade.

Perhaps, Soren and maybe back to you.

Yeah, there, there's one funda fundamental reason for that. We have decided to charter out on a long-term charter or LR2s rather than moving into the spot trade, which is really a part of our, housekeeping, hedge strategy for Hafnia's as a general, and the value really lies on the bigger ships. So that's why we have done that rather than going into dirty trade.

Okay, great.

Thank you, Soren.

I am actually, I'll give it a few more seconds to see if there's anything coming through in either the chat or the Q&A. Actually, we have another question coming through from Paul on the raise hand function. Can you please unmute unmute yourself?

Yeah, I just, I guess you have the same dynamics on the LR1s, right? So, there's a large portion of the LR1s that trade dirty as well. Isn't that correct?

Yeah. It, the Panamax market has been, moving from literally $20,000 to $600,000 maybe even $70,000 levels, with very strong earnings. So, we are benefiting from that with our pool, together with Mercuria in the US Gulf. And it's only an 85 shift market. It's not really a big market. So, When you have stuff like Venezuela coming into play with Diller and NTA going into getting the crude out, and you take 10% of the fleet and dedicated for that, you see a market that moves quite rapidly. So, yeah, it has been a very good move.

Yeah, so that's important. I mean, the Q1 guidance or bookings, I guess. It's quite strong on LR1s and there's no reason why the same. Let's say screwing, if that's the right word, is not benefiting you, right? The other ones will also benefit and by Sequence, when LR1s go up, then that impacts on MRs, right? Isn't that the dynamic?

Yeah, and that's what we are seeing at the moment. The lack of LR2s in the Middle East is going to spill down to the LR1s, and actually the effect is already happening on the air mass as well. So, for sure, it, when you draw everything short, market is bound to pop, right.

Yeah, exactly.

Thank you.

Guys.

Thank you both. We have another question coming through. I'm moving on to the Q&A section. So, we have one, can you please comment on your commercial performance versus peers like Tom and Emma's during Q425 and Q1 2026.

Soren Is that one for you.

I don't know if it's for me or Michael.

I think it's for me. I had a quick review of the two numbers coming out today, and comparably, if you try and make apples to apples fleet and so on. I see that as a as a close run up.

We are performed on one or two segments and very close on all the others. So, I think it's a tie, to be honest.

Okay, thank you, Soren. We have another question, which I think is Michael. Can you elaborate on the status of Tom's shareholding? What can we expect?

Yeah, so I mean, I think we try to say as much as we can basically in the material we send out already, well, first of all, you can say that the shareholding on an isolated basis, of course now has turned out to be, a good investment. So at least when we look at the share price today versus what we paid and invested, it's obviously, it looks great on paper. I think when it comes to any other issues, all I can say is that when we look at consolidation in general, what we're looking at is really trying to make one plus one becoming three. So, in other words, the reason why we've been advocating consolidation actually for years is that when we look at valuations and multiple expansions on companies, it's pretty clear that when you're a $5 billion or $6 billion shipping company versus 2 to 3 isolated, there is a, there's a significant difference through the cycles. On the value of your net asset value versus pricing and also on a multiple basis.

So, we think there's immediate lift that way, but there's also a lot of synergies around to be harvested and, our view hasn't really changed that when you look into the future and you look into an energy complex that will change and for companies that are purely tankers alone. There's also a new element in terms of how do you position yourself both in terms of investments in dual fuel engines, but also in terms of potentially running different types of ships that are burning different types of potentially oil or carrying different types of cargos, and for that you need scale, and I think you need both scale and you also need a capital market track record that is good.

So, I think for all these purposes, we see a lot of synergies on the cost side, we see a lot of synergies on revenue side for sure, but we also, as I said, see a lot on immediately value uptick on valuations in general, which again would increase dividend capacity for shareholders.

Okay, thank you, Michael. And I believe you've also covered a similar question in the chat, on our tom investment and future M&A strategy. So, I'll give it a few more seconds to see if anything else comes through in either the Q&A or the chat.

And there's nothing in the raised hand function either.

Okay, so then we have come to the end of today's presentation.

Thank you for attending Hafnia's fourth quarter 2025 financial results conference call. You can find more information available on our website www.hafnia.com.

Thank you everyone for coming.