GXO Logistics Inc (GXO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the GXO Q4 and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before the call begins, let me read a brief statement on behalf of the company regarding forward-looking statements, the use of non-GAAP financial measures and company guidance. During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meanings of applicable securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings. The forward-looking statements in the company's earnings release are made on this call are made only as of today, and the company has no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements, except to the extent required by law.

歡迎來到 GXO 第 4 季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。我叫凱文，我將擔任您今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在錄製此會議。在電話會議開始之前，讓我代表公司宣讀一份關於前瞻性陳述、非 GAAP 財務措施的使用和公司指導的簡短聲明。在此電話會議期間，公司將在適用證券法的含義內作出某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述就其性質而言涉及許多風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與電話會議中預測的結果大不相同。前瞻性陳述。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含對可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的討論。公司在本次電話會議上發布的收益報告中的前瞻性陳述僅截至今天，公司沒有義務更新任何這些前瞻性陳述，法律要求的範圍除外。

The company also may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under applicable SEC rules during this call. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are contained in the company's earnings release and the related financial tables are on its website. Unless otherwise stated, all results reported on this call are reported in United States dollars.

在本次電話會議期間，公司還可能參考適用的 SEC 規則定義的某些非 GAAP 財務措施。此類非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對賬包含在公司的收益發布中，相關財務表格位於其網站上。除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議報告的所有結果均以美元為單位。

The company will also remind you that its guidance incorporates business trends to date and what it believes today to be appropriate assumptions. The company's results are inherently unpredictable and may be materially affected by many factors, including fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, changes in global economic conditions and consumer demand and spending, labor market and global supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures and the various factors detailed in the filings with the SEC.

該公司還將提醒您，其指導意見結合了迄今為止的商業趨勢以及它目前認為合適的假設。公司的業績本質上是不可預測的，可能會受到許多因素的重大影響，包括匯率波動、全球經濟狀況和消費者需求和支出的變化、勞動力市場和全球供應鏈限制、通脹壓力以及本報告中詳述的各種因素向 SEC 提交的文件。

It is not possible for the company to actually predict demand for its services, and therefore, actual results could differ materially from guidance. You can find a copy of the company's earnings release, which contains additional important information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in the Investors section of the company's website.

公司不可能實際預測對其服務的需求，因此，實際結果可能與指導意見存在重大差異。您可以在公司網站的投資者部分找到公司收益發布的副本，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 財務措施的其他重要信息。

I'll now turn the call over to GXO's Chief Executive Officer, Malcolm Wilson. Mr. Wilson, you may begin.

我現在將電話轉給 GXO 的首席執行官馬爾科姆威爾遜。威爾遜先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today for our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. With me in Greenwich are Barish Oran, our Chief Financial Officer; Bill Fraine, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Mark Manduca, our Chief Investment Officer.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財報電話會議。和我一起在格林威治的是我們的首席財務官 Barish Oran；我們的首席商務官 Bill Fraine；和我們的首席投資官 Mark Manduca。

It was a pleasure to dedicate some time a few weeks ago at our Investor Day to share a deeper dive into our business, the value we add and our strategy for the coming years. As a reminder, during our Investor Day presentation, we announced our financial targets for 2027, which are as follows: we will more than double our top line from the end of 2021 to $17 billion and deliver compounded annual organic growth of between 8% and 12%. We'll nearly triple our adjusted EBITDA over the same period to about $1.6 billion. We'll generate more than $2 billion of free cash flow by 2027 and will deliver operating return on invested capital of above 30%.

很高興幾週前在我們的投資者日花一些時間分享對我們業務的更深入了解、我們增加的價值以及我們未來幾年的戰略。提醒一下，在我們的投資者日演講中，我們宣布了 2027 年的財務目標，具體如下：從 2021 年底開始，我們的收入將增加一倍以上，達到 170 億美元，並實現 8% 至 8% 的複合年有機增長12%。我們將在同一時期將調整後的 EBITDA 增加近兩倍，達到約 16 億美元。到 2027 年，我們將產生超過 20 億美元的自由現金流，並將實現超過 30% 的投資資本運營回報率。

And just to reiterate, these long-term targets do reflect our expectations of a softer macroeconomic environment in the near term, which we anticipate will be the case through the majority of 2023. For the benefit of everyone, we posted the transcripts and video on our investor site. But today, we are here to focus on our 2022 full year earnings, our performance in the fourth quarter and our 2023 outlook. So let's turn to that.

重申一下，這些長期目標確實反映了我們對近期宏觀經濟環境疲軟的預期，我們預計 2023 年的大部分時間都會如此。為了大家的利益，我們將成績單和視頻發佈在我們的投資者網站。但今天，我們在這里關注我們的 2022 年全年收益、我們在第四季度的表現和我們的 2023 年展望。那麼讓我們轉向那個。

For the fourth quarter, we delivered excellent financial and operational performance. We generated revenue of $2.5 billion, reflecting organic growth of 7.5% and adjusted EBITDA of $205 million. These results reflected robust new business growth, strong year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth and sustained margin expansion through the second half of the year. For the full year, we delivered revenue of $9 billion, organic growth of 15.4% and adjusted EBITDA of $728 million at the top end of the range we provided at our Investor Day.

第四季度，我們提供了出色的財務和運營業績。我們創造了 25 億美元的收入，反映了 7.5% 的有機增長和 2.05 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。這些結果反映了強勁的新業務增長、強勁的同比調整後 EBITDA 增長以及整個下半年利潤率的持續增長。全年，我們實現了 90 億美元的收入，有機增長 15.4%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.28 億美元，處於我們在投資者日提供的範圍的上限。

In addition to our strong operational performance during this year's peak season, we also increased our overall warehouse tech by about 40% year-over-year with pilots, ramp-ups and rollouts of several different types of operational technology across all of our geographies. Additionally, to enable customers to quickly scale capacity up and down, specifically during peak, we trialed a new approach where we deployed several hundred pieces of tech to support volume spikes. For the customers who participated in this pilot who were experiencing volume surges of up to 200% vis-a-vis a non-peak day, this was an incredible enabler of success during this year's holiday season.

除了我們在今年旺季的強勁運營表現外，我們還通過在我們所有地區試點、推廣和推出幾種不同類型的運營技術，將我們的整體倉庫技術同比提高了約 40%。此外，為了使客戶能夠快速擴展和縮減容量，特別是在高峰期，我們嘗試了一種新方法，我們部署了數百項技術來支持容量峰值。對於參與該試點的客戶來說，他們在非高峰日經歷了高達 200% 的流量激增，這是今年假期取得成功的不可思議的推動因素。

The fourth quarter was also a busy time for us internally as we kicked off the smooth integration of the Clipper business. We've already made huge progress on realizing our cost synergies and now expect the bulk of the over $40 million to come within the first 2 years. Importantly, we also signed the first of what we expect will be several significant customer contracts, combining Clipper customer relationships and GXO capability. These revenue synergies will be substantial in the coming years. They will also be above and beyond the $40 million of cost synergies.

第四季度對我們內部來說也是一個忙碌的時期，因為我們開始了 Clipper 業務的順利整合。我們已經在實現成本協同效應方面取得了巨大進展，現在預計超過 4000 萬美元中的大部分將在頭兩年內實現。重要的是，我們還簽署了我們預期的第一份重要客戶合同，結合了 Clipper 客戶關係和 GXO 能力。這些收入協同效應在未來幾年將是巨大的。它們還將超出 4000 萬美元的成本協同效應。

In the fourth quarter, GXO achieved a stellar level of new business wins, closing nearly $200 million of new contracts, including partnerships with Barilla, Boeing, Farfetch, Kingfisher Beer, Nike and SharkNinja.

在第四季度，GXO 取得了出色的新業務勝利，完成了近 2 億美元的新合同，包括與百味來、波音、Farfetch、翠鳥啤酒、耐克和 SharkNinja 的合作。

I also want to take a moment to say a thank you to all of our GXO colleagues who delivered a strong peak season and full year and who strive every day to make our organization a great place to work. I'm proud that just last week, we were named one of the top 50 companies in the U.S. for diversity.

我還想花點時間感謝我們所有的 GXO 同事，他們在旺季和全年都表現出色，每天都在努力使我們的組織成為一個理想的工作場所。我感到自豪的是，就在上週，我們被評為美國 50 強多元化公司之一。

Now turning to 2023. We're pleased to reaffirm our guidance of 6% to 8% organic revenue growth and $700 million to $730 million of adjusted EBITDA. Given the business we've already closed through the fourth quarter of 2022, combined with our strong sales pipeline, we're starting the year with a high degree of visibility to our growth. So in closing, it's been a great fourth quarter, and we're proud to have delivered another stellar year in 2022. Looking ahead, in 2023, with laser-focused on delivering our guidance and executing on our long-term business plan, and we're looking forward to continuing to create value for our customers, our employees, and our shareholders.

現在轉向 2023 年。我們很高興重申我們對 6% 至 8% 的有機收入增長和 7 億至 7.3 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 的指導。鑑於我們已經關閉到 2022 年第四季度的業務，再加上我們強大的銷售渠道，我們在今年開始時對我們的增長具有高度的可見性。因此，最後，這是一個偉大的第四季度，我們很自豪能夠在 2022 年取得又一個輝煌的一年。展望未來，在 2023 年，我們將專注於提供我們的指導並執行我們的長期業務計劃，並且我們期待繼續為我們的客戶、員工和股東創造價值。

With that, I'll hand you over to Bill to add more color on our commercial landscape. Bill, over to you.

有了這個，我會把你交給比爾，為我們的商業景觀增添更多色彩。比爾，交給你了。

Thanks, Malcolm, and good morning, everyone. During our Investor Day, we talked about the GXO difference. Our unique combination of technology, scale and expertise, which drives our partnerships with amazing brands and grows our market share. Our new business wins from the fourth quarter of 2022 contributed nearly $200 million to future revenue growth. Therefore, for 2023, all of our wins to date have accumulated to around $661 million of gross in-year revenue.

謝謝，馬爾科姆，大家早上好。在我們的投資者日，我們談到了 GXO 的不同之處。我們獨特地結合了技術、規模和專業知識，這推動了我們與優秀品牌的合作並擴大了我們的市場份額。我們從 2022 年第四季度開始贏得的新業務為未來的收入增長貢獻了近 2 億美元。因此，到 2023 年，我們迄今為止的所有勝利已累計達到約 6.61 億美元的年內總收入。

Looking beyond the fourth quarter, our sales momentum is strong. We've continued to win great contracts early in the first quarter of 2023, one of which, as Malcolm mentioned, is Farfetch to support Reebok brand launch and omnichannel logistics throughout Europe. This was a customer previously served by Clipper and is our first major cross-sell with, coming shortly after completing the transaction. This customer needed the breadth, flexibility, global scale and expertise of GXO in a networked multi-site operation across Europe. They also needed this solution to go live within a few weeks of the contract being signed and a partner that could then deploy automation to drive efficiency and higher volumes in the future.

展望第四季度之後，我們的銷售勢頭強勁。我們在 2023 年第一季度初繼續贏得了重要合同，其中一個合同，正如 Malcolm 提到的，是 Farfetch 來支持 Reebok 品牌在整個歐洲的發布和全渠道物流。這是 Clipper 之前服務過的客戶，也是我們在完成交易後不久進行的第一個主要交叉銷售。該客戶需要 GXO 在整個歐洲的聯網多站點運營中的廣度、靈活性、全球規模和專業知識。他們還需要該解決方案在合同簽署後的幾週內上線，並需要一個合作夥伴可以部署自動化以在未來提高效率和更高的產量。

Now turning to our pipeline. At $2.1 billion, we're up versus the third quarter, reflecting a growing number of customers coming to GXO in this environment and underscoring our confidence in future market share gains. Importantly, the pipeline is turning over rapidly. We have lots of exciting growth opportunities in all of our verticals and geographies, including a number of sizable outsourcing projects and expansions with existing customers.

現在轉向我們的管道。我們的收入為 21 億美元，高於第三季度，反映出在這種環境下越來越多的客戶來到 GXO，並強調了我們對未來市場份額增長的信心。重要的是，管道正在迅速周轉。我們在所有垂直行業和地區都有許多令人興奮的增長機會，包括一些規模龐大的外包項目和與現有客戶的擴展。

Now I'd like to take a moment to comment on what we're seeing on the ground and how this positively impacts our growth. In 2022, as the world came out of the pandemic, there was a clear realization of the importance of reassessing and rebuilding supply chains in order to emerge stronger. The conversations we're having with our customers reflect that they need an optimized supply chain solution today, while at the same time, they're looking to strategically reposition their end-to-end supply chains for the future. As the partner of choice, GXO is leveraging our best-in-class technology to drive optimal accuracy, speed and efficiency for our global blue-chip customers.

現在我想花點時間評論一下我們在實地看到的情況以及這對我們的發展有何積極影響。 2022 年，隨著世界走出大流行，人們清楚地認識到重新評估和重建供應鏈以變得更強大的重要性。我們與客戶的對話反映出他們現在需要一個優化的供應鏈解決方案，與此同時，他們希望在戰略上重新定位他們未來的端到端供應鏈。作為首選合作夥伴，GXO 正在利用我們一流的技術為我們的全球藍籌客戶提供最佳的準確性、速度和效率。

Let me give you 2 examples. First, the world's most advanced technology companies are turning to GXO for solutions. In the fourth quarter, we expanded our partnership with 1 large U.S. tech customer by leveraging our transformational work over the past 12 months. Last year, we took over one of their operations within 72 hours of signing the contract. And within 30 days, we were meeting or exceeding all KPIs. Over the past year, we've transformed their operations and delivered a 10% improvement in accuracy, a 10% reduction in stock outs and a 17% reduction in staff turnover.

讓我舉兩個例子。首先，世界上最先進的技術公司正在轉向 GXO 尋求解決方案。在第四季度，我們利用過去 12 個月的轉型工作，擴大了與 1 個美國大型科技客戶的合作夥伴關係。去年，我們在簽訂合同後的 72 小時內接管了他們的一項業務。在 30 天內，我們達到或超過了所有 KPI。在過去的一年裡，我們改變了他們的運營方式，將準確性提高了 10%，缺貨率降低了 10%，員工流失率降低了 17%。

And second, the trend towards nearshoring is gathering pace. Over the coming years, roughly $3.5 trillion worth of global trade is forecast to come back onshore. For the warehousing industry, this represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity, and we're already seeing this in our pipeline with many of our conversations related in some form to inventory management. For example, just in case versus just in time, or diversification of their global warehouse footprint. One area we're seeing this theme emerging strongly is in the semiconductor sector. And we are perfectly positioned to benefit given that GXO is a critical partner to a number of the industry leaders in this space.

其次，近岸外包的趨勢正在加快。未來幾年，預計價值約 3.5 萬億美元的全球貿易將回到岸上。對於倉儲行業來說，這代表著一個價值數十億美元的機會，我們已經在我們的管道中看到了這一點，我們的許多對話都以某種形式與庫存管理相關。例如，以防萬一與及時，或全球倉庫足蹟的多樣化。我們看到這一主題強烈出現的一個領域是半導體行業。鑑於 GXO 是該領域許多行業領導者的重要合作夥伴，我們完全有能力從中受益。

Overall, it's becoming clear to many of the world's leading brands that business as usual is no longer an option. The current environment is leading more and more companies to look to outsourcing as a solution. And they're turning to experts like GXO. We stand ready to support customers all over the world as they look to us to help redesign their supply chains, taking advantage of our technology, scale and expertise. This GXO difference is why we are gaining market share.

總體而言，許多世界領先品牌越來越清楚，一切照舊不再是一種選擇。當前的環境導致越來越多的公司將外包作為一種解決方案。他們正在求助於像 GXO 這樣的專家。我們隨時準備為世界各地的客戶提供支持，因為他們希望我們利用我們的技術、規模和專業知識幫助他們重新設計供應鏈。這種 GXO 差異是我們獲得市場份額的原因。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Barish.

有了這個，我會把它交給巴里什。

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As Malcolm mentioned, for the full year, we generated revenue of [$9 billion], adjusted EBITDA of $728 million and net income of $197 million. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share for the full year 2022 is $2.85, up 36% from $2.09 in the prior year, driven by our EBITDA growth and aided by the addition of Clipper, which was EPS accretive in 2022 and will be more so in 2023. We finished the year at the top of our guidance range with 15.4% organic revenue growth. We undertook a sizable bolt-on acquisition in the form of Clipper Logistics, which is well underway in terms of integration and also performing extremely well. As always, impressively, while executing this high level of growth, we maintained our resilient contract mix, drove high levels of customer retention at the mid- to high 90s and increased the revenue drive from highly automated operations.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早上好。正如 Malcolm 提到的那樣，全年我們創造了 [90 億美元] 的收入，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.28 億美元，淨收入為 1.97 億美元。我們調整後的 2022 年全年攤薄每股收益為 2.85 美元，比上一年的 2.09 美元增長 36%，這得益於我們的 EBITDA 增長和 Clipper 的加入，後者在 2022 年增加了每股收益，2023 年更是如此. 我們以 15.4% 的有機收入增長在我們的指導範圍內結束了這一年。我們以 Clipper Logistics 的形式進行了大規模的補強收購，該收購在整合方面進展順利，而且表現非常出色。與往常一樣，令人印象深刻的是，在實現這種高水平增長的同時，我們保持了彈性合同組合，在 90 年代中後期推動了高水平的客戶保留，並增加了高度自動化運營帶來的收入驅動。

Moreover, our operating return on invested capital increased to 40% from 35% in the prior year, driven by the surge of our EBITDA. Additionally, our free cash flow conversion at 33% was above our 30% guidance. This is a business that is producing growth, returns free cash flow while integrating a sizable acquisition. Our strong cash conversion has enabled us to pay down $50 million of debt ahead of schedule and to rapidly reduce our leverage levels to 1.8x, trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, down from 2.1x at the end of the third quarter.

此外，在我們的 EBITDA 激增的推動下，我們的投資資本運營回報率從上一年的 35% 增加到 40%。此外，我們 33% 的自由現金流轉換率高於我們 30% 的指導值。這是一家在整合大規模收購的同時產生增長、回報自由現金流的企業。我們強勁的現金轉換使我們能夠提前償還 5000 萬美元的債務，並將我們的槓桿水平迅速降低至 1.8 倍，即過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA，低於第三季度末的 2.1 倍。

In the fourth quarter of 2022, we generated revenue of $2.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $205 million and net income of $46 million. Our organic revenue growth rate was 7.5% in the quarter, despite tougher comps, reflecting the contractual nature of our pricing in our business. And in the context of this strong revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA grew by 23% year-over-year this quarter, 3x our revenue growth.

2022 年第四季度，我們實現了 25 億美元的收入，調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.05 億美元，淨收入為 4600 萬美元。儘管比較艱難，但我們本季度的有機收入增長率為 7.5%，反映了我們業務定價的合同性質。在收入強勁增長的背景下，本季度調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 23%，是我們收入增長的 3 倍。

Now turning to 2023. We are reiterating our guidance of organic revenue growth of 6% to 8%, which reflects a softer macroeconomic environment this year. We are also reiterating our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $700 million to $730 million, and that's including an assumption of approximately $70 million of headwind coming from foreign exchange and reduced pension income, exactly as we mentioned on our Investor Day 4 weeks ago. Excluding these nonoperational factors, our 2023 EBITDA would be growing at high single digits. To further emphasize the stability that this business enjoys, we have well above 90% top line visibility for this year. In terms of phasing, we expect the percentage seasonality of our revenue and adjusted EBITDA by quarter to be very similar to what we have seen since the spin.

現在轉向 2023 年。我們重申我們對有機收入增長 6% 至 8% 的指導，這反映了今年宏觀經濟環境疲軟。我們還重申我們調整後的 EBITDA 指引為 7 億美元至 7.3 億美元，其中包括假設約 7000 萬美元的逆風來自外彙和減少的養老金收入，正如我們在 4 週前的投資者日上提到的那樣。排除這些非運營因素，我們 2023 年的 EBITDA 將以高個位數增長。為了進一步強調該業務享有的穩定性，我們今年的收入可見度遠高於 90%。在分階段方面，我們預計我們收入的季節性百分比和按季度調整的 EBITDA 將與我們自分拆以來所看到的非常相似。

In addition, we have updated you during our Investor Day presentation on a number of initiatives that will drive our EBITDA growth over the planning period to 2027. These included gains from our core growth, automation and value-added services, adaptive tech and artificial intelligence, productivity initiatives and Clipper synergies.

此外，我們在投資者日的演講中向您介紹了一系列計劃，這些計劃將推動我們的 EBITDA 在規劃期間到 2027 年的增長。這些包括我們的核心增長、自動化和增值服務、自適應技術和人工智能帶來的收益、生產力舉措和 Clipper 協同效應。

In the fourth quarter, with shareholder value in mind, we launched the efficiencies project we discussed in the Investor Day, which will contribute through 2023. We booked the first $18 million in restructuring costs. These actions will have a less than 2-year cash-on-cash payback.

在第四季度，考慮到股東價值，我們啟動了我們在投資者日討論過的效率項目，該項目將持續到 2023 年。我們記下了第一筆 1800 萬美元的重組成本。這些行動的現金回報期不到 2 年。

Turning to our balance sheet. We expect that our leverage will be around 1.5x by the end of the year, and that's driven by our strong ongoing cash conversion of roughly 30%. After 6 quarters as a publicly traded company, our predictable results, and our guidance reflects our secular growth, contractual infrastructure like trades. This is a business with high degree of resiliency and long-term visibility, which gives us great confidence entering into 2023.

轉向我們的資產負債表。我們預計到今年年底我們的槓桿率將達到 1.5 倍左右，這是由我們持續強勁的約 30% 的現金轉換率推動的。作為一家上市公司 6 個季度後，我們可預測的結果和我們的指導反映了我們的長期增長、交易等合同基礎設施。這是一項具有高度彈性和長期可見性的業務，這讓我們對進入 2023 年充滿信心。

And now I'll pass you over to Mark.

現在我會把你交給馬克。

Thanks, Barish. GXO has delivered another strong quarter, taking share through tech leadership and through the tremendous value that we deliver to our customers. This business combines predictability and growth at its bedrock. Firstly, on predictability. Unlike a transactional business model, where pricing is driven by short-term supply and demand. Our pricing is driven by long-term contracts with inflation protection embedded within them. Combine that, with a large and diversified pipeline that we continue to converse upon, and it should come as no surprise to hear Barish say that we have well over 90% revenue visibility for this year.

謝謝，巴里什。 GXO 又創造了一個強勁的季度，通過技術領先地位和我們為客戶提供的巨大價值贏得市場份額。該業務在其基石上結合了可預測性和增長性。首先，關於可預測性。與交易型商業模式不同，定價由短期供需驅動。我們的定價是由長期合同驅動的，其中包含通脹保護。結合我們繼續討論的龐大而多元化的管道，聽到 Barish 說我們今年的收入可見度超過 90% 也就不足為奇了。

Secondly, on growth, we've won contracts worth $661 million of gross revenue for 2023. That equates to 7% gross revenue wins versus 2022's revenues of $9 billion. And if our pipeline is anything to go by, there will inevitably be further wins in both Q1 and Q2 of this year that will likely contribute even further to 2023's growth. Combine these gross wins, with a low attrition rate in an inflationary environment, and you can see why we are so confident about our 6% to 8% organic revenue growth for this year. We've done 6 quarters without missing a beat. We successfully undertaken a significant acquisition that is already delivering accretion. And in January, we were pleased to share our 5-year strategic plan. This management team delivers on its promises.

其次，在增長方面，我們贏得了價值 6.61 億美元的 2023 年總收入合同。這相當於 7% 的總收入，而 2022 年的收入為 90 億美元。如果我們的管道有什麼可藉鑑的，那麼今年第一季度和第二季度將不可避免地取得進一步的勝利，這可能會進一步促進 2023 年的增長。將這些總勝利與通貨膨脹環境中的低流失率相結合，您就會明白為什麼我們對今年 6% 至 8% 的有機收入增長如此有信心。我們已經完成了 6 個季度，沒有錯過任何一個節拍。我們成功地進行了一項已經實現增長的重大收購。在 1 月份，我們很高興地分享了我們的 5 年戰略計劃。這個管理團隊兌現了諾言。

With that, we'll open the call up to Q&A.

有了這個，我們將打開問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。

I think first off, I think it might be helpful if you could just give us a little bit of color of what you're seeing in the macro landscape, particularly between the U.S. and Europe? And then just beyond that, what macro assumptions have you kind of baked into your guidance specifically for this year?

我想首先，我認為如果你能給我們一些關於你在宏觀環境中看到的東西的顏色，特別是美國和歐洲之間的情況，我認為這可能會有所幫助？然後除此之外，您今年專門將哪些宏觀假設融入了您的指導方針中？

Thanks Stephanie. Let me take that. It's Malcolm. What we're seeing on the ground is growth across all of our regions in North America, Continental Europe, the U.K. we've got particular pockets of really good strength. But at the same time, we've also got softness in certain of the markets. It's a real mixed bag. The environment in North America is our strongest condition. While when we look at U.K., Continental Europe, these markets have been a little bit more affected by the softer macro, higher energy, higher mortgage costs is impacting on the consumers' disposable incomes. Interestingly, when we look at the different verticals that we work in across all of our regions, we can see differences. So typically, our industrials, or in our space, our technology verticals, they've been particularly strong.

謝謝斯蒂芬妮。讓我拿那個。是馬爾科姆。我們在實地看到的是我們在北美、歐洲大陸、英國的所有地區都在增長。我們擁有非常強大的實力。但與此同時，某些市場也出現疲軟。這是一個真正的混合包。北美的環境是我們最強的條件。而當我們看看英國和歐洲大陸時，這些市場受到宏觀經濟疲軟、能源價格上漲、抵押貸款成本上升影響消費者可支配收入的影響更大一些。有趣的是，當我們審視我們在所有地區開展工作的不同垂直領域時，我們會發現差異。因此，通常情況下，我們的工業，或者在我們的領域，我們的技術垂直領域，它們特別強大。

Overall, all of our warehouses are in a good state of utilization. We don't have any empty space. And importantly, our customers are very happy with what we're doing for them. In terms of inflation, I think we're through the worst of it. And I can point to our last quarter where traditionally, we have to pay wage supplements to attract the levels of team members into our business to cope with the holiday season. This last peak season, we've not been required to do that. So I think we're definitely through the worst of inflation.

總體而言，我們所有的倉庫都處於良好的利用率狀態。我們沒有任何空位。重要的是，我們的客戶對我們為他們所做的一切感到非常滿意。就通貨膨脹而言，我認為我們已經度過了最糟糕的時期。我可以指出我們的最後一個季度，傳統上，我們必須支付工資補貼，以吸引團隊成員的水平進入我們的業務，以應對假期。在上一個旺季，我們沒有被要求這樣做。所以我認為我們肯定已經度過了最糟糕的通脹時期。

I really want to call out, though, when I think about '23, the level of new business that we're seeing in our pipeline has remained very, very strong. And of course, we've just signed $200 million of new customer contracts. That's really very, very good for the end of the year. When I put all of these things together, that's really given us a strong confidence on our 6% to 8% organic growth for the year ahead.

不過，我真的很想說，當我想到 23 年時，我們在管道中看到的新業務水平仍然非常非常強勁。當然，我們剛剛簽署了 2 億美元的新客戶合同。這對年底來說真的非常非常好。當我把所有這些事情放在一起時，這真的讓我們對未來一年 6% 到 8% 的有機增長充滿信心。

And I'll ask Mark just to give a build-out of that number. But I'll just finish by saying, we're already through January. January has given us a good start. Business is absolutely in alignment with our expectations. I think as a management team, we can say, we're prudent about 2023, but also we're cautiously optimistic for the year ahead.

我會請 Mark 給出這個數字的補充。但我只想說，我們已經過了一月份。一月給了我們一個良好的開端。業務完全符合我們的預期。我認為作為一個管理團隊，我們可以說，我們對 2023 年持謹慎態度，但我們對來年持謹慎樂觀態度。

Mark, maybe you could just a bit more detail.

馬克，也許你可以再詳細一點。

Yes. Thanks, Malcolm. It's Mark here. Happy Wednesday. So let's just hit a couple of points. I'm just going to reiterate exactly what Malcolm said in terms of our confidence. Barish made a great point. We have over 90% revenue visibility for 2023. And that's what we mean when we say that this business is infrastructure like contractual based as a business model. So we're not a retailer, and we're certainly not a transactional business. So I love it when you ask the macro question because we're a different [read] of asset.

是的。謝謝，馬爾科姆。我是馬克。週三快樂。因此，讓我們談談幾點。我只想重申 Malcolm 在我們的信心方面所說的話。巴里什提出了一個很好的觀點。到 2023 年，我們有超過 90% 的收入可見性。這就是我們說這項業務是基礎設施，如基於合同的業務模型時的意思。所以我們不是零售商，當然也不是交易型企業。所以當你問宏觀問題時我喜歡它，因為我們是不同的 [read] 資產。

So in terms of the 6% to 8% organic revenue growth for 2023, the walk is a relatively easy one. There are 2 buckets to consider: net new business wins in the first bucket and existing customer growth. So our net new business wins, we've got $661 million worth of wins already for 2023 in the bag. That is a gross number, which when you compare it with the $9 billion of revenue from last year in 2022 gives you 7.3% gross growth.

因此，就 2023 年 6% 至 8% 的有機收入增長而言，這一步相對容易。有 2 個桶要考慮：第一個桶中的新業務淨贏和現有客戶增長。因此，我們的淨新業務獲勝，到 2023 年，我們已經獲得了價值 6.61 億美元的勝利。這是一個總數，當你將它與 2022 年去年的 90 億美元收入進行比較時，你會得到 7.3% 的毛增長率。

Now in terms of the calculation to this number, you should take off, obviously, attrition, let's call it, roughly low single digits from what we said about penetration rates. And then equally, you need to add on something, as Malcolm said, in terms of being able to achieve new wins in both Q1 and Q2 of this year, and that will allow you to essentially take those numbers and get within touching distance of the 6% to 8% already even before you've considered the base existing operations growth.

現在就這個數字的計算而言，你應該從我們所說的滲透率中脫穎而出，顯然，我們稱之為減員，大致是低個位數。然後同樣，正如 Malcolm 所說，就能夠在今年第一季度和第二季度取得新的勝利而言，你需要增加一些東西，這將使你能夠從本質上獲得這些數字，並在觸手可及的距離內6% 到 8% 甚至在您考慮現有運營基礎增長之前就已經如此。

So if you turn to the second side of it, we've done net new business wins. Turning to the base business, you've got 2 things, price and volume. If you combine the 2, I think a good gauge for 2023 is roughly low single digits, and that's in line with our recent run rates as well. So you can see Net new business wins, existing customer growth gets you comfortably as Malcolm said, to 6% to 8%, and Malcolm use the word prudent. This is a prudent and sensible forecast from a prudent and sensible team. And it's also worth noting in terms of this idea of duration in this business and visibility, we also have $177 million already signed for 2024. So you've got growth, you've got your resiliency and you've got your predictability Steph.

因此，如果你轉向它的第二方面，我們已經完成了新業務的淨贏。轉向基礎業務，您有兩件事，價格和數量。如果將兩者結合起來，我認為 2023 年的良好指標大致是低個位數，這也符合我們最近的運行率。所以你可以看到淨新業務獲勝，現有客戶增長讓你如馬爾科姆所說的那樣輕鬆，達到 6% 到 8%，馬爾科姆使用謹慎這個詞。這是一個謹慎而明智的團隊做出的謹慎而明智的預測。就這項業務的持續時間和知名度而言，還值得注意的是，我們還已經簽署了 2024 年的 1.77 億美元。所以你有增長，你有彈性，你有你的可預測性，斯蒂芬。

No. Got it. That's helpful. And just a quick follow-up here. As you look at those puts and takes, where do you -- and I think it sounds like new business wins as well as maybe outperformance on the existing customer side, where it stands today? Where do you -- of the 2, which one do you think has the greatest opportunity for upside?

不，知道了。這很有幫助。在這裡快速跟進。當您查看這些投入和投入時，您在哪裡 - 我認為這聽起來像是新業務的勝利以及現有客戶方面的表現可能優於今天的情況？在這兩個中，您認為哪一個最有上行機會？

Stephanie, this is Bill. I would tell you some of the new business wins, and I'll talk about this, I think, probably more than once today, but let me break it down to 3 points we see happening. Number 1 is existing customers that are with us today that have seen the benefits of automation doing -- growing with us and doing more automation. They've already seen -- it's already been a proven point to them. and they're growing. So I'm talking to a company in March that has business with us in Europe, and they want to move to the U.S. and to Canada, and they're looking at sites, and they wanted to have automated sites. So that's one, and that's happening the same way from North America back to Europe and in the region that's happening. So that's one part of growth as people have gotten into the automated bugs and they understand they have to change their supply chains for the future.

斯蒂芬妮，這是比爾。我會告訴你一些新的業務勝利，我想今天可能不止一次談論這個，但讓我把它分解為我們看到的 3 點。排名第一的是今天與我們在一起的現有客戶，他們已經看到了自動化帶來的好處——與我們一起成長並實現更多自動化。他們已經看到了——這對他們來說已經是一個被證明的觀點。他們正在成長。所以我在三月份與一家與我們在歐洲有業務往來的公司交談，他們想搬到美國和加拿大，他們正在尋找網站，他們希望擁有自動化網站。這就是一個，從北美到歐洲以及正在發生的地區，這種情況正在以同樣的方式發生。所以這是增長的一部分，因為人們已經陷入了自動化的錯誤，他們明白他們必須為未來改變他們的供應鏈。

Number two, are the people that have not outsourced yet. And that's becoming a growing part of our pipeline. Almost 1/3 of our (inaudible) the pre-pipeline, new business coming to us is brand new logos. And these are companies that have not outsourced, but what they're seeing is they're behind the times. They see the change in supply chain. They realize that their existing team doesn't have the wherewithal to do that. It doesn't mean they're not good teams. They just don't have the ability and they haven't done the automation levels we've done around the world. So they're coming to us and asking us to look at their sites and do what we call takeover in place.

第二，是尚未外包的人員。這正在成為我們管道中越來越重要的一部分。我們的（聽不清）幾乎 1/3 的預管道，來到我們這裡的新業務是全新的標誌。這些公司還沒有外包，但他們看到的是他們落後於時代。他們看到了供應鏈的變化。他們意識到他們現有的團隊沒有足夠的資金來做到這一點。這並不意味著他們不是好球隊。他們只是沒有能力，也沒有達到我們在世界各地所做的自動化水平。所以他們來找我們，要求我們查看他們的網站，並進行我們所說的就地接管。

Two of the big closes in December were that way and the ones we already have in January of that, where we're taking over an existing site, we're going to run the site for a period of time. We're going to get a value and reduce cost. But then we're going to transform it and automate it. So -- and that's where our automation will grow. And again, they want an expert partner like us that knows how to do that.

12 月的兩個大關閉就是這樣，而我們在 1 月份已經關閉了那些，我們將接管現有站點，我們將運行該站點一段時間。我們將獲得價值並降低成本。但隨後我們將對其進行改造並使其自動化。所以 - 這就是我們的自動化將增長的地方。再一次，他們想要像我們這樣知道如何做到這一點的專業合作夥伴。

And then finally, what I would say is those that are with us and those that are already outsourced, but haven't automated yet, all want to automate. Again, they've seen the value of automation. They read about it in the press. They've seen what other companies working with us has been able to do, and as we mentioned on the Markets Day, we have proof points. We can now take them to sites where they're seeing 10 times improvement for customers who are automating, they're seeing all the benefit of what it needs to labor to help them make the labor more efficient and more sticky where your turnover rates go down. So all those things are happening. So we're very, very excited about the opportunity in new business, and that will continue with us as we go forward.

最後，我要說的是那些與我們在一起的人以及那些已經外包但尚未自動化的人都希望實現自動化。他們再次看到了自動化的價值。他們在報刊上讀到了這件事。他們已經看到與我們合作的其他公司能夠做的事情，正如我們在市場日提到的那樣，我們有證據。我們現在可以帶他們去現場，在那裡他們看到自動化客戶的效率提高了 10 倍，他們看到了勞動所需的所有好處，以幫助他們提高勞動力的效率和流動率的粘性向下。所以所有這些事情都在發生。因此，我們對新業務的機會感到非常非常興奮，並且在我們前進的過程中將繼續如此。

Next question is coming from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Scott Schneeberger。

Congratulations on your first year as a stand-alone entity. The -- I guess for my first question, kind of a follow-up from in Investor Day. But curious, could you please bridge for us from 2022 EBITDA to 2023 EBITDA, the major puts and takes there. And then, Barish, I think I heard you say that we should be modeling cadence for revenue consistent with -- in '23, consistent with 2022, would you say similar for EBITDA? Just curious on that.

祝賀您作為獨立實體的第一年。我想我的第一個問題是投資者日的後續問題。但好奇的是，你能否為我們從 2022 年的 EBITDA 過渡到 2023 年的 EBITDA，這是主要的投入和投入。然後，巴里什，我想我聽到你說我們應該為收入建模節奏——在 23 年，與 2022 年一致，你會說 EBITDA 類似嗎？只是好奇。

Scott, our EBITDA results for the year will be driven by, as I mentioned, the headwinds, which are nonoperational in nature, roughly $70 million coming from FX and pension income. And those were compensated by the tailwinds from our organic growth, incremental revenues from legacy Clippers, synergies from the legacy Clipper integration and our central efficiencies project that we highlighted and we started.

斯科特，正如我提到的，我們今年的 EBITDA 結果將受到非經營性逆風的推動，大約 7000 萬美元來自外彙和養老金收入。這些都得到了我們有機增長的順風、遺留 Clipper 的增量收入、遺留 Clipper 整合的協同效應以及我們強調並開始的中央效率項目的補償。

On the impact of FX, there has slightly improved for our 2023 guidance, but the pension income is slightly worse. So the net effect is still $70 million. If it was not for these nonoperational headwinds, our EBITDA would have increased by about high single digits year-over-year. And looking into the phasing of this year, our phasing of EBITDA, last year was about 21% in the first quarter, 24% in second quarter, 26% in third quarter and 28% in fourth quarter, and we're going to be roughly about the same. This is a fulfillment business, and this reflects our seasonality.

就外匯影響而言，我們的 2023 年指引略有改善，但養老金收入略差。所以淨效應仍然是 7000 萬美元。如果不是因為這些非運營不利因素，我們的 EBITDA 同比增長大約是個位數。看看今年的階段，我們的 EBITDA 階段，去年第一季度約為 21%，第二季度為 24%，第三季度為 26%，第四季度為 28%，我們將大致相同。這是一項履行業務，這反映了我們的季節性。

Great. I appreciate that color. And then for a follow-up, just curious on capital allocation priorities in 2023. And maybe if you could provide a little perspective on the M&A pipeline.

偉大的。我很欣賞那種顏色。然後是後續行動，只是對 2023 年的資本分配優先事項感到好奇。也許你可以提供一些關於併購管道的觀點。

Of course. As always, our priority is on shareholder value creation. We are a growth enterprise and we have a strong pipeline that Bill has mentioned, and we have operating return -- in excess of 30%, that's 3-year cash-on-cash payback for a 5-year project. So our short-term priority is to generate free cash flow, maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet which is very important for our customers. They -- because we are such an integral part of their business, they want us to be financially strong. We expect to return leverage levels to about 1.5x by the end of 2023.

當然。一如既往，我們的首要任務是為股東創造價值。我們是一家成長型企業，我們擁有比爾提到的強大管道，我們的運營回報率超過 30%，這是一個 5 年項目的 3 年現金現金回報。因此，我們的短期優先事項是產生自由現金流，保持強大的投資級資產負債表，這對我們的客戶非常重要。他們——因為我們是他們業務中不可或缺的一部分，他們希望我們的財務狀況良好。我們預計到 2023 年底，槓桿水平將恢復到 1.5 倍左右。

At the end of the year of 2022, we stand around 1.8x, down from 2.1x at the end of third quarter. Beyond this, in the long term, we will continue to evaluate all the opportunities to create value for our shareholders, specifically through accretive bolt-on M&A, which we will evaluate alongside the potential of returning capital back to shareholders through a buyback. We do have a sizable pipeline of potential M&A targets, both in North America and Europe, but we are weighing them against other opportunities investing in our stock through a buyback. But in the short term, our priority is paying down debt to create room for further capital allocation.

到 2022 年底，我們約為 1.8 倍，低於第三季度末的 2.1 倍。除此之外，從長遠來看，我們將繼續評估所有為股東創造價值的機會，特別是通過增值補強併購，我們將評估通過回購將資本返還給股東的潛力。我們在北美和歐洲確實有大量潛在的併購目標，但我們正在權衡它們與通過回購投資我們股票的其他機會。但在短期內，我們的首要任務是償還債務，為進一步的資本配置創造空間。

Our next question is coming from Chris Wetherbee from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe picking up a little bit longer term and thinking about the 2027 targets that you guys outlined at Investor Day. So understand the headwinds that you're seeing in 2023 and how that may impact or mute EBITDA relative to 2022. The 2027 targets imply a pretty meaningful sort of reacceleration of the business in '24, '25 and beyond. So can you give us a sense. And I don't know if this is a question for Bill or Barish in terms of like the visibility you have, particularly to 2024, as you're building out your book. I know you're adding business to the 2024 pipeline now, but just sort of how do we think about that reacceleration? And what's driving it?

也許選擇更長遠的目標，並考慮你們在投資者日概述的 2027 年目標。因此，請了解您在 2023 年看到的逆風，以及相對於 2022 年這可能會如何影響或抑制 EBITDA。2027 年的目標意味著 24 年、25 年及以後的業務將出現非常有意義的重新加速。那麼你能給我們一個感覺嗎？而且我不知道這是否是 Bill 或 Barish 的問題，就像您在撰寫本書時所具有的可見性，特別是到 2024 年。我知道你現在正在為 2024 年的管道增加業務，但我們如何看待這種重新加速？是什麼在推動它？

Yes. As you will recall, our EBITDA bridge in the Capital Markets Day, a very sizable component of that was coming from our core growth and then followed by our mix changes, including automation and value-added services. That was making roughly about 85% of the EBITDA bridge going from around $600 million to $1.6 [billion] at the end of 2027. And the remainder was basically adaptive technologies, central efficiencies and Clipper synergies. That was making up the most of that. And growth is such an important part of that bridge. And when you think about our pipeline, we are on our way in line with our plan to execute on that.

是的。你會記得，我們在資本市場日的 EBITDA 橋樑，其中很大一部分來自我們的核心增長，然後是我們的組合變化，包括自動化和增值服務。這使得大約 85% 的 EBITDA 橋樑從 6 億美元左右增加到 2027 年底的 16 億美元。剩下的基本上是自適應技術、中央效率和 Clipper 協同效應。那是其中的大部分。增長是這座橋樑的重要組成部分。當你想到我們的管道時，我們正在按照我們的計劃執行。

Bill, would you like to give further comments on how our pipeline is building up and how we progress to 2027?

比爾，你想就我們的管道建設情況以及我們如何進展到 2027 年發表進一步評論嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Barish. So a few things that are happening is, one, with the automation that's in place today, meaning just across the market. But the expertise that we've developed around that means that we're much more sticky with our customers to start. So the customers we have are looking to expand with us, and they're also looking to renew with us. All our large customers looking to renew because they don't have to go anywhere else to get the automation that's already here.

是的。謝謝你，巴里什。因此，正在發生的一些事情是，其中之一，隨著今天的自動化，這意味著整個市場。但我們圍繞這一點開發的專業知識意味著我們在開始時對客戶的粘性要大得多。因此，我們擁有的客戶希望與我們一起擴展，他們也希望與我們續約。我們所有的大客戶都希望續訂，因為他們不必去其他任何地方就可以獲得已經存在的自動化。

At the same time, the complicated thing to do in our industry is break somebody away from a competitor because there's a cost of move. But the fact that we have the automation drives them this way. People are making decisions. Two of the last big closes we talked about in December. As I mentioned, we're taking over places, but they were -- one was a takeover place in term and one was from a competitor. And the reason they came was because they didn't see the same value where they were after a 10-year experience with the other -- the competitor. That's not about the competitor. It's about our automation prowess.

同時，在我們的行業中，最複雜的事情是將某人從競爭對手中分離出來，因為這會產生轉移成本。但我們擁有自動化的事實驅使他們這樣做。人們正在做決定。我們在 12 月談到的最後兩次大收盤。正如我提到的，我們正在接管一些地方，但它們是——一個是術語中的接管地方，一個是來自競爭對手的地方。他們來的原因是因為他們沒有看到與其他人（競爭對手）10 年經驗後的相同價值。這與競爭對手無關。這與我們的自動化實力有關。

And then finally, our churn rate and meaning our ability to turn up our pipeline, but also to grow our percentage close one. Both of those things are happening again because of automation because of solutioning. We're able to show tremendous value to our customers. So those things will grow the pipeline. They will also accelerate the pipeline and they're bringing more people into the pipeline. So all those things together give me great confidence in 2027 that we can get there.

最後，我們的客戶流失率意味著我們有能力增加我們的渠道，同時也增加我們的百分比。由於解決方案的自動化，這兩件事再次發生。我們能夠向我們的客戶展示巨大的價值。所以這些東西會增加管道。他們還將加快管道建設，並將更多的人帶入管道。因此，所有這些加在一起讓我對 2027 年充滿信心，相信我們可以實現目標。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe on a little bit near term. You mentioned, I think Clipper synergies were expected to happen post peak season because it's difficult to do things materially before that. So -- and I think you sound a little bit more optimistic about getting things done on the earlier and maybe even upside to the numbers. Can you talk a little bit about the cadence of what we should expect from Clipper synergies in 2023? When will those be realized how quickly?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後可能在短期內。你提到過，我認為快船的協同效應預計會在旺季後發生，因為在那之前很難做實質性的事情。所以 - 我認為你對儘早完成事情甚至可能比數字更樂觀一些。你能談談我們對 2023 年 Clipper 協同效應的預期節奏嗎？什麼時候會多快實現這些？

Sure. Let me take on the cost side and Bill, you come in on the revenue side, what we're seeing from our wins and pipeline perspective. We already kicked off the project and the EBITDA impact for this year is going to be about $10 million, but the run rate will be higher. We are well on our way to meet the expectations we set out, and we have an opportunity to beat that expectation. As you would recall, the EBITDA uplift from Clipper cost synergies was about (inaudible) will be realized in our EBITDA this year. Bill?

當然。讓我談談成本方面，比爾，你在收入方面，我們從我們的勝利和管道的角度來看。我們已經啟動了該項目，今年的 EBITDA 影響約為 1000 萬美元，但運行率會更高。我們正在努力滿足我們設定的期望，並且我們有機會超越這一期望。正如您所記得的那樣，Clipper 成本協同效應帶來的 EBITDA 提升大約（聽不清）將在我們今年的 EBITDA 中實現。賬單？

Yes. Thank you. And what we saw my first visit to a legacy Clipper site was Farfetch in Netherlands back when we first made the transaction. They have a great relationship with Farfetch. When we got there, we showed Farfetch the capabilities of GXO, and that's why we've just gained a new opportunity. And I was talking to the team in Germany yesterday. And they're seeing the same thing that the opportunities in Germany are expanding and growing because of the relationship.

是的。謝謝。當我們第一次進行交易時，我第一次訪問舊版 Clipper 網站時看到的是荷蘭的 Farfetch。他們與 Farfetch 關係密切。當我們到達那裡時，我們向 Farfetch 展示了 GXO 的功能，這就是我們剛剛獲得新機會的原因。我昨天在德國與團隊交談。他們看到了同樣的事情，即由於這種關係，德國的機會正在擴大和增長。

And then finally, what we have -- where we have the service repair technology that we're doing that Clipper was already doing, we're now bringing it to all of our customers across Europe and using it as a way to kind of catapult a platform that's out to them. And this is a product that people can use, if you're a retailer and you have any electronics coming back to you in a return process, we're the ones that can come in and repair that for you. and that's a huge benefit for the market, both in ESG and in revenue growth. So all those things are tremendous for us from the legacy GXO company.

最後，我們擁有的——我們擁有 Clipper 已經在做的服務維修技術，我們現在將它帶給我們在歐洲的所有客戶，並將其用作一種彈射器的方式一個適合他們的平台。這是人們可以使用的產品，如果您是零售商並且在退貨過程中有任何電子產品返回給您，我們就是可以為您維修的產品。這對市場來說是一個巨大的好處，無論是在 ESG 方面還是在收入增長方面。所以所有這些對我們來自傳統的 GXO 公司來說都是巨大的。

Next question is coming from Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I appreciate the opportunity to ask question. I wanted to piggyback on Chris' question earlier on the ramp in EBITDA from [23%] to [27%]. Basically, you're forecasting a more than doubling of EBITDA from 23% to 27% , which is like over 20% compounded annual growth number, just given that there's not a lot of operating leverage in the business, I would assume that that's kind of the revenue trajectory that you're also forecasting. So -- can you -- is that fairly linear in your mind? Like should we expect kind of a 20% plus step-up in revenue and EBITDA in '24 to sort of start you on that path to the '27 target? If you can just give a little bit more color because it's a huge step up, and I guess it would just be a little bit easier to understand the slope of that trajectory.

我很高興有機會提問。我想在 EBITDA 從 [23%] 到 [27%] 的斜坡上搭載 Chris 的問題。基本上，你預測 EBITDA 將從 23% 增加一倍以上到 27%，這相當於超過 20% 的複合年增長率，只是考慮到業務中沒有太多的經營槓桿，我認為這是一種您還預測的收入軌跡。那麼——你能——在你的腦海中是相當線性的嗎？就像我們是否應該期望 24 年的收入和 EBITDA 增加 20% 以上，從而讓您走上通往 27 年目標的道路？如果你能多給一點顏色，因為這是一個巨大的進步，我想這會更容易理解那個軌蹟的斜率。

Sure. Let me kick it off here, Amit. When you think about our trajectory, it's reflecting in 2023, 6% to 8% organic revenue growth. And it's based on a softer macro environment, and it is a prudent approach for this year. And in January, we are trading it in those lines of 6% to 8% organic growth so far. As the global economy start accelerating, we will see an expansion in our growth in 2024 and onwards and that's going to get us to the -- our 2027 target. That's all part of the plan that we have built. It's a bottom-up plan. It's not a top-down plan, and it is based on our customers' forecast.

當然。讓我在這裡開始吧，阿米特。當你考慮我們的軌跡時，它反映了 2023 年 6% 到 8% 的有機收入增長。而且是基於較軟的宏觀環境，是今年比較穩健的做法。而在 1 月份，我們目前的有機增長率為 6% 至 8%。隨著全球經濟開始加速，我們將在 2024 年及以後看到我們的增長擴張，這將使我們實現 2027 年的目標。這就是我們制定的計劃的全部內容。這是一個自下而上的計劃。這不是一個自上而下的計劃，而是基於我們客戶的預測。

As Bill mentioned, they are still investing in a lot of direct consumer but also automation to take a lot of the cost out. There's a lot of discussions happening at the outsourcing, and that's going to accelerate our growth. Bill?

正如 Bill 提到的，他們仍在大量投資於直接消費者，同時也在自動化方面進行投資，以節省大量成本。在外包方面進行了很多討論，這將加速我們的發展。賬單？

Yes. Amit, what I'd add to that is, is that when we talk about the structural change that customers are going through, in the past, a company might come to us and want to open 1 site, maybe 2 sites. This is an entire change of their supply chain. That's really what people are seeing is the supply chain they had in place isn't operational for the future, and they have to change it. So we're talking about companies that may have 10 sites across the U.S. may have another 5 or 6 across Europe. They need to reset those sites, whether they do it in the existing location or whether they close those and outsource and do something else but they need to change. So that's where the growth really starts to accelerate because it's not just we close one. The customers we closed in the fourth quarter and this quarter, the plan is not just to do that 1 site. The plan is to do the other 10 sites that these customers have. as we go and do the first one. So the first one is that we'll build it. And after that, it will accelerate and we'll go do the other one. So that's another big part of where the growth comes from.

是的。 Amit，我要補充的是，當我們談論客戶正在經歷的結構變化時，在過去，一家公司可能會來找我們並希望開設 1 個站點，也許是 2 個站點。這是他們供應鏈的整個變化。人們真正看到的是，他們現有的供應鏈在未來無法運作，他們必須改變它。所以我們談論的是可能在美國擁有 10 個站點的公司可能在歐洲擁有另外 5 或 6 個站點。他們需要重置這些站點，無論是在現有位置進行，還是關閉這些站點並外包並做其他事情，但他們需要進行更改。所以這就是增長真正開始加速的地方，因為不僅僅是我們關閉了一個。我們在第四季度和本季度關閉的客戶，計劃不僅僅是做那個 1 個站點。計劃是處理這些客戶擁有的其他 10 個站點。當我們去做第一個時。所以第一個是我們將構建它。在那之後，它會加速，我們會去做另一個。所以這是增長來源的另一個重要部分。

Got it. So just Barish, if I just want a clarification. So you're basically saying the growth kind of gets back to maybe low double-digit trends and then what bridges you to the 20% plus EBITDA is the cost savings and efficiency. Is that the right interpretation of what you just said Barish.

知道了。如果我只是想澄清一下，請巴里什發言。所以你基本上是說增長可能會回到兩位數的低趨勢，然後讓你達到 20% 以上 EBITDA 的是成本節約和效率。這是對你剛才所說巴里什的話的正確解釋嗎？

Exactly right. Exactly. That's the trajectory that we're forecasting right now.

非常正確。確切地。這就是我們現在預測的軌跡。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, if I could. I wanted to also piggyback on the M&A question from Scott, I think. So I think historically, you guys have been underrepresented in like Canada and Germany, and particularly like the pharma or health care vertical? And Malcolm, I wanted to ask you directly because I know you've been in this business for a few decades now. And I know you knew the Clipper asset and knew it well, and that was a real great opportunity for you. Do you see any opportunities like that? I know it's a fragmented market, but do you see any opportunities like in verticals or geographies where you don't have a lot of overlap today, where there's clipper like assets in those verticals and geographies that may not be available today, but something on your watch list. If you could just talk about that.

好的。然後作為後續行動，如果可以的話。我想我也想藉用斯科特提出的併購問題。所以我認為，從歷史上看，你們在加拿大和德國的代表性不足，尤其是在製藥或醫療保健垂直領域？馬爾科姆，我想直接問你，因為我知道你從事這個行業已經幾十年了。而且我知道你了解 Clipper 資產並且非常了解它，這對你來說是一個真正的好機會。你看到這樣的機會了嗎？我知道這是一個分散的市場，但你是否看到任何機會，比如在今天沒有太多重疊的垂直或地區，在那些今天可能不可用的垂直和地區有類似資產的機會，但有些東西你的觀察名單。如果你能談談那個。

Yes. Amit, thanks for the question. Absolutely. When we look across our business, as Barish mentioned, I mean, right now, our focus is on deleveraging our investment grade. But there will be a time when we're in a better shape, and we are able to do M&A or buyback, whichever is the better logic for our shareholders. When we look at M&A, we're always focused on bringing something new into GXO. Clipper was a great example. We brought tech renovation, tech innovation, we got into Germany. We brought new verticals like health care. So that's a really good example of how GXO looks at M&A.

是的。阿米特，謝謝你的提問。絕對地。當我們審視我們的業務時，正如 Barish 提到的，我的意思是，現在，我們的重點是去槓桿化我們的投資等級。但總有一天我們會處於更好的狀態，我們能夠進行併購或回購，無論哪個對我們的股東來說都是更好的邏輯。當我們審視併購時，我們總是專注於為 GXO 帶來新的東西。 Clipper 就是一個很好的例子。我們帶來了技術革新、技術創新，我們進入了德國。我們帶來了醫療保健等新的垂直領域。所以這是 GXO 如何看待併購的一個很好的例子。

We're not interested in buying volume. With the largest pure play -- contract logistics company in the world, we don't need volume. What we're interested in is bringing something new that we don't currently do right now. If I look across the landscape and probably right now, when we think about the economic environment, North America is super interesting for us. There are a ton of hidden gems on our radar. And between Barish and myself, the rest of the team it's about cultivating business relationships with these companies. You don't want these win the wide arena, it's about building a relationship with the businesses far in advance. And for sure, right now, we talk about things that maybe could be of interest in '24 or a little sooner. But that's typically how we approach it. It's the right approach for us, and I think it sets us up for success for the longer term.

我們對購買量不感興趣。擁有世界上最大的純業務——合同物流公司，我們不需要數量。我們感興趣的是帶來一些我們目前沒有做的新東西。如果我縱觀整個景觀，可能現在，當我們考慮經濟環境時，北美對我們來說非常有趣。我們的雷達上有大量隱藏的寶石。在 Barish 和我自己以及團隊的其他成員之間，就是要與這些公司建立業務關係。你不希望這些贏得廣泛的舞台，這是關於提前與企業建立關係。可以肯定的是，現在，我們談論的是 24 世紀或更早的時候可能會感興趣的事情。但這通常是我們處理它的方式。這對我們來說是正確的方法，我認為它為我們的長期成功奠定了基礎。

Would you be surprised if GXO did not do another deal before the middle of 2024. Would that be surprising to you? Or would that be kind of in line with your deleveraging focus?

如果 GXO 在 2024 年年中之前不進行另一筆交易，您會感到驚訝嗎？這會讓您感到驚訝嗎？或者這是否符合您的去槓桿化重點？

Well, it all depends on what the set of opportunities we have in our hands. We'll take a look at where the opportunities to reinvest in our stock is and what the opportunity to invest in an accretive M&A is. When you look at the M&A opportunity, can we scale them up faster? Can we give them additional capabilities? Can we make them more profitable is going to be weighed against the share buyback. So that's what we're going to have. But by the end of 2023, we will have room.

好吧，這完全取決於我們手上有哪些機會。我們將看看再投資我們股票的機會在哪裡，以及投資增值併購的機會是什麼。當您審視併購機會時，我們能否更快地擴大規模？我們可以給他們額外的能力嗎？我們能否讓他們獲得更多利潤將與股票回購權衡。這就是我們要擁有的。但到 2023 年底，我們將有空間。

Next question is coming from Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just to go back to Clipper and the synergies. You've quantified the cost ones obviously. It sounds like those are tracking a little bit faster than expected. But when do you think you'll be able to put more of a number around the revenue side? It sounds like Farfetch was the first one out the gate. It might be a reasonable size now or maybe in the future, but maybe you can put some context around that and how we should be thinking about those synergies now that there seems to be some momentum behind that.

回到 Clipper 和協同效應。您顯然已經量化了成本。聽起來它們的追踪速度比預期的要快一點。但是你認為你什麼時候可以在收入方面增加更多的數字？聽起來 Farfetch 是第一個走出大門的人。它現在或將來可能是一個合理的規模，但也許你可以圍繞它提出一些背景，以及我們應該如何考慮這些協同效應，因為它背後似乎有一些動力。

Yes, Brian, it's Malcolm. Let me cover that question. So obviously, right from the get-go, we were focused on the cost synergies because those are easy for us to get to. And we have to remember that up to October of last year, we were still under the whole separate order. So we were really kind of prohibited from getting into too much detail with the Clipper customer base.

是的，布萊恩，是馬爾科姆。讓我來回答這個問題。很明顯，從一開始，我們就專注於成本協同效應，因為這些對我們來說很容易實現。我們必須記住，直到去年 10 月，我們仍然處於整個單獨的訂單之下。所以我們真的有點被禁止與 Clipper 客戶群進行過多的細節接觸。

Since that point, though, we've merged all of the sales organization. And you're quite right, the Farfetch deal that Bill referred to in the Netherlands is just a classical example of, they had a great relationship with a strong blue chip luxury brand, but really difficult for them to expand that outside of the U.K. in the Netherlands. With GXO, of course, it's a no-brainer. And we're delighted, absolutely delighted to assign that new arrangement.

不過，從那時起，我們合併了所有的銷售組織。你說得很對，Bill 在荷蘭提到的 Farfetch 交易只是一個典型的例子，他們與一個強大的藍籌奢侈品牌有很好的關係，但他們真的很難將這種關係擴展到英國以外的地方。荷蘭人。當然，有了 GXO，這是顯而易見的。我們很高興，非常高興分配新的安排。

Our sales teams are working together now very diligently, we're focused on a number of different verticals. Pipeline is good. Pipeline is strong. Customers are readily accepting GXO. I mean they're really welcoming the new capabilities, the scale of our combined business. So we don't have the precise details yet. It's not an exact science, but if I had to make a view on it. I think it's going to be a number of hundreds of millions of dollars of incremental synergy-type sales that we're going to see over the next couple of years or the coming through, it's really the icing on the cake of what has already been a super piece of M&A.

我們的銷售團隊現在非常勤奮地合作，我們專注於許多不同的垂直領域。管道很好。流水線強。客戶很樂意接受 GXO。我的意思是他們真的很歡迎新功能，我們合併後的業務規模。所以我們還沒有確切的細節。這不是一門精確的科學，但如果我不得不對它發表看法的話。我認為這將是數億美元的增量協同型銷售，我們將在未來幾年或即將到來的時候看到，這真的是錦上添花超級併購。

And if I can add to that. The thing I'd add to that, Brian, is that the GXO-Direct network that we have really developed well in North America. We're bringing that expertise to the European market. And we're starting in the U.K., where they're going to use the legacy Clipper multisite locations to begin it in. So that will be another big add for us. A lot of good customers there, a lot of opportunities, and it will be the ability to showcase and grow that in the market.

如果我可以補充一點。布賴恩，我要補充的是，我們在北美確實發展良好的 GXO-Direct 網絡。我們正在將這種專業知識帶到歐洲市場。我們從英國開始，在那裡他們將使用遺留的 Clipper 多站點位置開始。所以這對我們來說將是另一個重要的補充。那裡有很多好客戶，有很多機會，這將是在市場上展示和發展的能力。

And Brian, to Bill's point, we've got the pedigree on GXO Direct, as he says, I mean, we did very well on that last year, did about $300 million or so of revenue, that was up 32% year-over-year, and the margins on that business are very strong, roughly at 10.8%. So there's lots of growth ahead as both Bill and Malcolm said.

Brian，就 Bill 而言，我們有 GXO Direct 的血統書，正如他所說，我的意思是，我們去年在這方面做得很好，收入約為 3 億美元，同比增長 32%年，該業務的利潤率非常高，大約為 10.8%。因此，正如比爾和馬爾科姆所說，未來會有很多增長。

Okay. Follow-up for Barish, can you give us the seasonality of EBITDA, which is helpful for modeling. But just from a bigger picture margin perspective, you got maturing contracts, you got some mix within there, you've got clipper and the productivity on top of just more automation. So is this a year where you feel like you're going to get some of those bigger benefits you've kind of baked into 2027? Is it going to be more of a run rate as you get through the year? Like how should we be thinking about that broader theme of that uplift on the margin line, which still seems to be a big part of the guidance going in '27?

好的。 Barish的後續，能給我們EBITDA的季節性嗎，對建模有幫助。但從更大的利潤率角度來看，你有成熟的合同，你有一些混合，你有更自動化的剪輯和生產力。那麼，這一年您是否覺得自己將獲得一些您已經融入 2027 年的更大好處？當你度過這一年時，它會更像是一個運行率嗎？比如我們應該如何考慮邊緣線提升的更廣泛主題，這似乎仍然是 27 年指導方針的重要組成部分？

Yes. The maturing of the contract happened in Q4, you clearly see that as we communicated earlier, the second half of 2022, our margins were up and the implementation drag is pretty much over at the end of the fourth quarter. And when you think about the productivity gains and copper synergies, they are part of the guidance we provided. They will be providing around $10 million each contribution to 2023 EBITDA. Of course, the run rate is going to be higher. We are implementing those and the payback is about 2 years. So we will accelerate these efforts in 2023, and the benefit is going to be more prevalent into 2024 and onwards. And that's how we're going to get to a higher margin by 2027 as we highlighted.

是的。合同到期發生在第四季度，你可以清楚地看到，正如我們之前溝通的那樣，2022 年下半年，我們的利潤率上升了，實施拖累在第四季度末基本結束。當您考慮生產力提高和銅協同效應時，它們是我們提供的指導的一部分。他們將為 2023 年的 EBITDA 貢獻約 1000 萬美元。當然，運行率會更高。我們正在實施這些，投資回收期約為 2 年。因此，我們將在 2023 年加快這些努力，到 2024 年及以後，收益將更加普遍。正如我們強調的那樣，這就是我們將如何在 2027 年之前獲得更高的利潤率。

Next question is coming from Ari Rosa from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

So typically, I know in your business, there's a post-holiday drawdown in terms of labor and resources. I'm just wondering, given the kind of more muted peak season perhaps that we saw this year, how that's progressing and to what extent that's kind of causing a shift in the business from fourth quarter to first quarter?

因此，我知道在您的業務中，節後通常會出現勞動力和資源方面的縮減。我只是想知道，考慮到我們今年可能看到的那種更加溫和的旺季，這是如何進展的，以及在多大程度上導致業務從第四季度轉移到第一季度？

Ari. We had a drawdown as we would after any peak. We had to take out of sight after the volume came off from peak, and we did a very good job of that around the world. So very, very specific, very clean and very well planned by the teams. So that went very well. The volumes coming into this month are within the plan, and obviously, the new sales we see, we're very excited about. So all those things together have gone well.

阿里。我們有一個縮編，就像我們在任何高峰之後一樣。在音量從峰值下降後，我們不得不離開視線，我們在世界範圍內做得很好。團隊非常非常具體、非常乾淨且計劃周密。所以一切順利。本月的銷量在計劃之內，顯然，我們看到的新銷量讓我們非常興奮。所以所有這些事情都進展順利。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful to hear. And then in terms of the outlook for $700 million to $730 million of EBITDA for this year, I was hoping you guys could just speak to what are the biggest factors that would cause you to underperform that target or outperform that target. It sounds like there's some moving pieces kind of on the below-the-line items, whether it's pension or FX. Is that really what we should be concerned about in terms of downside risk to that target and potentially upside as well if some of those swing favorably given the high level of revenue visibility? Or are there other things that we should be looking out for that could kind of cause variance from that target?

知道了。好的。聽了很有幫助然後就今年 7 億至 7.3 億美元的 EBITDA 前景而言，我希望你們能談談導致你們低於或超過該目標的最大因素是什麼。聽起來線下項目有一些變化，無論是養老金還是外匯。就該目標的下行風險和潛在的上行風險而言，這真的是我們應該擔心的嗎？或者是否有其他我們應該注意的事情可能會導致與該目標的差異？

We have a lot of revenue visibility. So I wouldn't expect too much variability on the revenue side. On the EBITDA side, it's also very visible from us. But if you take couple of millions here and there, Pension is pretty much fixed for the entire year. It's coming from the actuaries. FX, I mean, if every percent move is closing about $2 million, plus or minus. So it's not that material, quite frankly.

我們有很多收入可見性。所以我不希望收入方面有太多變化。在 EBITDA 方面，我們也很明顯。但如果你到處拿幾百萬，那麼全年的養老金幾乎都是固定的。它來自精算師。外匯，我的意思是，如果每一個百分比的變動收盤價都在 200 萬美元左右，上下浮動。所以坦率地說，這不是那麼重要。

And then beyond that is productivity projects we are highlighting and pushing out some of those are taking place in Europe, which is a different environment for taking cost out compared to U.S. and it's not an exact science. So it may go faster or slower, and then will determine the cadence of our EBITDA growth within 2023. But we are pretty confident in the range.

除此之外，我們正在強調並推動其中一些正在歐洲進行的生產力項目，與美國相比，這是一個不同的成本削減環境，而且這不是一門精確的科學。所以它可能會更快或更慢，然後將決定我們 2023 年 EBITDA 增長的節奏。但我們對這個範圍非常有信心。

Your next question is coming from Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

James on for Allison. Just kind of wanted to touch back on margin expansion and sort of the cost-driven side has been address, but kind of wanted to understand sort of the operating leverage on new business accounts and sort of understand what sort of the outlook for sort of operating driven margin expansion might be is like 6% to 8% still the realm where you get a drag from new accounts? Or is in '23, are you getting some additional headwinds for mix or ongoing investment? Just kind of wanted to understand sort of what range of organic growth should we expect some of the operating driven margin expansion to come through?

詹姆斯換下艾莉森。只是有點想回到利潤率擴張和成本驅動方面的問題已經得到解決，但有點想了解新業務賬戶的運營槓桿以及運營前景驅動的利潤率擴張可能是 6% 到 8% 仍然是新客戶拖累的領域？或者在 23 年，您是否在組合或持續投資方面遇到了一些額外的阻力？只是有點想了解我們應該期望一些運營驅動的利潤率擴張能夠實現什麼樣的有機增長范圍？

The drag from our start-ups is pretty much done in Q4, and we are expecting solid margin as Bill highlighted from these new outsourcing contracts. Of course, in any new outsourcing contract will have a scaling up process, but we are getting even better at that. We are getting margins much faster than last couple of years. So that should be helpful. And this business has mild operating leverage. The -- as we highlighted in the Capital Markets Day, our EBITDA uptick is going to come from mainly from growth and we see -- demanded.

我們初創企業的拖累在第四季度幾乎已經完成，正如比爾從這些新的外包合同中強調的那樣，我們預計利潤率會很高。當然，在任何新的外包合同中都會有一個擴展過程，但我們在這方面做得更好。我們獲得利潤的速度比過去幾年快得多。所以這應該是有幫助的。而且這項業務具有溫和的經營槓桿。正如我們在資本市場日強調的那樣，我們的 EBITDA 增長將主要來自增長，我們看到 - 需求。

And the thing I'd add to that is if you recall, we've had a lot of conversations around the kind of contracts and how we manage contracts. And in 2022, you've got to see one of the things we've been telling you for quite a while and that is that our contracts are solid. And in a high inflationary area, we have the ability to go in and capture those cost backs, which we've done. And that's why you've seen '22 come out so strong.

我要補充的是，如果你還記得的話，我們就合同類型以及我們如何管理合同進行了很多對話。在 2022 年，你必須看到我們已經告訴你很長一段時間的一件事，那就是我們的合同是可靠的。在高通脹地區，我們有能力進入並獲得這些成本回報，我們已經做到了。這就是為什麼你看到 22 年表現如此強勁。

And my point for saying that is, so that ability is here as we go forward into '23, also, though, we are making sure that all of our new contracts hit all the numbers that we put in, all the ROIC we put in. So we feel very strong that we'll be having a very strong hit on target. And then technology, as you know, increases our margins and drives our cost for customers, and that's why that's such a big accelerator.

我要說的是，當我們進入 23 年時，這種能力就在這裡，不過，我們正在確保我們所有的新合同都達到我們投入的所有數字，我們投入的所有 ROIC . 所以我們感到非常強烈，我們將有一個非常強大的命中目標。然後技術，如你所知，增加了我們的利潤並增加了我們為客戶支付的成本，這就是為什麼它是一個如此大的加速器。

Next question is coming from Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

You've talked over and over about how consistent your high 90% or mid- to high 90% retention rate has been with your customers I believe that is through the fourth quarter. Can you talk a little bit about contracts that may be coming up midyear? Have you received any notices that those customers may be exiting or go with another provider? Just understanding how much conviction you have that, that stays mid- to high 90% as we get through the latter part of this year? And maybe tack on to that, how far would you like to go into this year or early next before you think we've kind of cyclically dodged the dip in that rate?

你一遍又一遍地談論你的高 90% 或中高 90% 的保留率與你的客戶的一致性，我相信這將持續到第四季度。你能談談年中可能出現的合同嗎？您是否收到過這些客戶可能退出或轉向其他提供商的通知？只是了解您有多少信念，在我們度過今年下半年時保持 90% 的中高水平？也許還要繼續說，在您認為我們已經週期性地避免了該利率下降之前，您希望今年或明年初走多遠？

Yes, Bascome, it's Malcolm here. I mean no, we have no visibility of any customer not being very happy and wanting to work with GXO. When we look at the retention, it's a very important number for us. It reflects highly in terms of the kind of service, the initiatives that we're bringing into the business relationship with our customers. So we're -- it's something we've worked at throughout '21 and '22. And I think we're about the right level now. I don't see any reason whatsoever why we'll see any change on those percentages.

是的，巴斯科姆，我是馬爾科姆。我的意思是不，我們看不到有任何客戶不高興並希望與 GXO 合作。當我們查看保留率時，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的數字。它高度反映了我們在與客戶的業務關係中引入的服務類型和舉措。所以我們 - 這是我們在整個 21 年和 22 年所做的工作。我認為我們現在處於正確的水平。我看不出有任何理由我們會看到這些百分比有任何變化。

And when we think about the look forward, clearly, our business is a long-term, long length contracted business. So typically, our sales organizations, Bill and all of the teams, they're talking to customers now about project strategy, even into '24, '25 in some instances, we've got projects on the drawing board with big blue chips that will only activate in '25. This is really a very long runway of visibility on our business. I think we're feeling relatively confident even against what we -- what I think we can all agree is a slightly softer macro outlook for the rest of 2023. I think we're all feeling, as I mentioned earlier, cautiously confident about the year ahead.

當我們考慮未來時，很明顯，我們的業務是一項長期、長期的合同業務。因此，通常情況下，我們的銷售組織、Bill 和所有團隊，他們現在正在與客戶討論項目戰略，甚至在某些情況下進入 24 世紀、25 年，我們已經在繪圖板上有了一些大藍籌項目只會在 25 年激活。這對我們的業務來說真的是一條很長的可見度跑道。我認為，即使面對我們——我認為我們都同意的是 2023 年剩餘時間的宏觀前景略微疲軟，我們也感到相對有信心。正如我之前提到的，我認為我們都對提前一年。

Next question today is coming from Jason Seidl from Cowen.

今天的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

Wanted to go back to the comments you made about nearshoring. Obviously, it's a trend we're all seeing over here, and I think you said over time, $3.5 trillion will come back onshore. Do you see that sort of changing your geographic exposure over time and sort of piggybacking on the 2 questions on acquisitions. Do you think that really tap into that acquisitions are going to be necessary over the next, let's call it, 3 to 5 years?

想回到你對近岸外包的評論。顯然，這是我們在這裡都看到的趨勢，我想你說過隨著時間的推移，3.5 萬億美元將回到境內。您是否看到這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改變您的地理風險，並在關於收購的 2 個問題上有所作為。您是否認為在接下來的 3 到 5 年內真的有必要進行收購？

Yes. This is Bill. What I would tell you is that I think it won't change the geographical makeup much and mainly because very simple. Most of where the customers and consumers are going to be in North America and Europe and U.K. So when they onshore, they're going to onshore to those areas or near buyers. You'll obviously see -- and we're seeing this some work in Mexico. But it's going to be coming into the markets. And the trend in that is goes back to what we've been talking about. That trend is accelerating the need for disperse leverage of people supply chains.

是的。這是比爾。我要告訴你的是，我認為它不會改變地理構成，主要是因為非常簡單。大多數客戶和消費者將在北美、歐洲和英國。因此，當他們在岸上時，他們將在岸上前往這些地區或靠近買家。你顯然會看到——我們在墨西哥看到了一些工作。但它將進入市場。而這方面的趨勢可以追溯到我們一直在談論的內容。這種趨勢正在加速對人員供應鏈的分散槓桿的需求。

I mean you've heard in the news, what Intel has talked about in terms of what they're going to do in the marketplace. That causes support for companies like that around the North American market to be able to get all the suppliers they're going to need to manage those sites. So that's the kind of process we believe is going to happen and we see happening. And that's why there's such a great opportunity in that for the 3 (inaudible).

我的意思是你已經在新聞中聽說過，英特爾談到了他們將在市場上做什麼。這導致了對北美市場等公司的支持，以便能夠獲得他們管理這些站點所需的所有供應商。所以這就是我們相信將會發生並且我們看到正在發生的那種過程。這就是為什麼 3（聽不清）有如此大的機會。

And as Bill said, look, $3.5 trillion worth of goods coming back onshore. That's about a seventh of global trade. If you imagine the typical warehousing costs are around 3% to 6% of a typical customer, you can see that, that is a multibillion dollar opportunity within a $500 billion TAM don't get lost in those numbers, $500 billion TAM in the context of a business that's just done $9 billion of revenue, if there is going to be a gravitation towards scale in this industry as we think, that is clearly a long road ahead in terms of growth for this business.

正如比爾所說，看，價值 3.5 萬億美元的商品回到了岸上。這大約是全球貿易的七分之一。如果您想像典型的倉儲成本大約是典型客戶的 3% 到 6%，您可以看到，在 5000 億美元的 TAM 中，這是一個數十億美元的機會，不要迷失在這些數字中，5000 億美元的 TAM 在上下文中對於剛剛實現 90 億美元收入的企業而言，如果像我們認為的那樣在這個行業中出現規模化趨勢，那麼就該業務的增長而言，這顯然還有很長的路要走。

That's great color. And my follow-up actually is going to go to the reverse logistics. You called it out how importance of a piece is it? Can you put some meat on the bone for us in terms of the growth rate in your reverse logistics business, compared to your base business?

那是很棒的顏色。而我的後續實際上是去逆向物流。你說出一件作品有多重要？與您的基礎業務相比，您能否就逆向物流業務的增長率為我們詳細介紹一下？

What I can tell you is that all of the networks and all the supply chains we're working on all have a huge focus on a more optimized return process. The example we've used and some of the customers we're working with has been we've been able to generate 10x the benefit of what they had before by taking a analytical approach to their returns to knowing what the best returns are to manage the best time. So all companies are looking at. All companies know that they have to improve their return process to improve their bottom line.

我可以告訴你的是，我們正在處理的所有網絡和所有供應鏈都非常關注更優化的退貨流程。我們使用過的例子以及我們正在與之合作的一些客戶已經能夠通過對他們的回報採取分析方法來了解什麼是最好的回報來管理，從而產生他們以前擁有的利益的 10 倍最好的時間。所以所有的公司都在看。所有公司都知道他們必須改進退貨流程以提高利潤。

So is it safe to say that reverse logistics is outperforming your base business without putting numbers?

那麼，在不給出數字的情況下，可以肯定地說逆向物流的表現優於您的基礎業務嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question is coming from Bruce Chan from Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

Bill, maybe one for you. You talked about the multi-tenant model over Clipper, and I'm just wondering if there are any meaningful margin differences between those 2 setups, single versus multi-tenant. And then when you think about your 2027 targets, does that incorporate any changes in what the mix looks like in those 2 setups relative to how your business is today?

比爾，也許一個給你。您談到了 Clipper 上的多租戶模型，我只是想知道這兩種設置（單租戶與多租戶）之間是否存在任何有意義的利潤差異。然後，當您考慮您的 2027 年目標時，這是否包含了與您今天的業務相關的這 2 個設置中的組合外觀的任何變化？

Yes. I'll address the margin part -- I'm sorry, I'll address the multiuse point. So what customers like about that is they get the ability to streamline their processes as they would in any GXO site, but they get to do it across a site where they're sharing the cost. So it's a big benefit, very flexible, a big opportunity. And as Mark mentioned, we have great margins and great growth on that. And I'll let Barish talk about the benefit of that to us.

是的。我將解決邊距部分——對不起，我將解決多用途問題。因此，客戶喜歡的是他們能夠像在任何 GXO 站點一樣簡化流程，但他們可以在他們分擔成本的站點上進行。所以這是一個很大的好處，非常靈活，一個很大的機會。正如馬克所提到的，我們在這方面有很大的利潤和巨大的增長。我會讓 Barish 談談這對我們的好處。

Sure, Bill. When you would recall the bridge we have given in the Capital Market Day, $600 million to $1.6 billion. You would recall that second largest component was automation and value-added services of $140 million of incremental EBITDA into 2027. Within that bucket, within the value-added services, we have this shared warehouse model, which Bill has highlighted at launch of GXO Direct in U.K. and the rest of the geographies we operate in. In the U.S., we do have higher margin from GXO Direct, and we're striving to get higher margin in U.K. and elsewhere from GXO Direct as well.

當然，比爾。當你回想起我們在資本市場日提供的橋樑時，6 億至 16 億美元。你會記得第二大組成部分是自動化和增值服務，到 2027 年 EBITDA 增加 1.4 億美元。在這個桶中，在增值服務中，我們有這種共享倉庫模型，Bill 在 GXO Direct 發佈時強調了這一點在英國和我們經營的其他地區。在美國，我們確實從 GXO Direct 獲得了更高的利潤，我們正在努力在英國和其他地方從 GXO Direct 獲得更高的利潤。

Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions today. I'd like to hand the call back to management for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，這就是我們今天所有的提問時間。我想將電話轉回管理層以徵求任何結束語。

Thanks, Kevin. And listen, thanks for hosting our call today. I appreciate that. So today, it marks our sixth earnings call as a publicly traded company, and it's been another great quarter, and I have to say 2022 has been a good full year for us. Before we close, I just want to thank everyone for the support that you're giving to GXO both today and during our recent Investor Day event. It was really good. We are very pleased that as a management team, I think we were able to do a deeper dive really to showcase the differentiated value proposition and the longer-term strategic thinking and the financial targets that will take us through to 2027. We're really looking forward to executing on this plan and creating more value for our customers, our employees and, of course, our shareholders. So with that, many thanks. I wish everybody a great rest of the day. Thanks for your attendance.

謝謝，凱文。聽著，感謝您今天主持我們的電話會議。我很感激。所以今天，這是我們作為一家上市公司的第六次財報電話會議，這是又一個很棒的季度，我不得不說 2022 年對我們來說是一個美好的一年。在我們結束之前，我只想感謝大家在今天和我們最近的投資者日活動中對 GXO 的支持。真的很好。我們感到非常高興，作為一個管理團隊，我認為我們能夠真正進行更深入的研究，以展示差異化的價值主張和長期戰略思維以及將我們帶到 2027 年的財務目標。我們真的期待執行這一計劃，為我們的客戶、員工，當然還有我們的股東創造更多價值。所以，非常感謝。祝大家今天休息愉快。感謝您的出席。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以在此時斷開您的線路，並度過美好的一天。