Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thanks Marvi, good morning everyone and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2024 Conference Call.

謝謝 Marvi，大家早安，謝謝您參加 Ferroglobe 的 2024 年第三季電話會議。

I want to apologize for the delay.

我想為延遲道歉。

Our operator had technical issues with their phone line, so we apologize.

我們的接線生的電話線路出現技術問題，因此我們深表歉意。

Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天加入我的是我們的執行長 Marco Levi；以及我們的財務長 Beatriz Garcia-Cos。

Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement.

在我們開始準備一些發言之前，我將閱讀一份簡短的聲明。

Please turn to slide 2 at this time.

此時請翻到投影片2。

Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations.

管理階層在本次電話會議上發表的前瞻性聲明是基於目前的預期。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and exhibits to those filings, which are available on our website at ferroglobe.com.

可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異的因素可以在 Ferroglobe 最新的 SEC 文件和這些文件的附件中找到，這些文件可以在我們的網站 Ferroglobe.com 上找到。

In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt, and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures.

此外，本討論還提到了 EBITDA、調整後 EBITDA、調整後總債務、調整後淨債務和調整後稀釋每股收益以及其他非 IFRS 指標。

Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings.

非 IFRS 措施的調節可以在我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。

Marco?

馬可？

Thank you, Alex.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。

Thanks for joining us on the call today.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

We appreciate your interest in Ferroglobe.

我們感謝您對 Ferroglobe 的興趣。

Q3 was another solid quarter.

第三季又是穩健的季度。

We reported adjusted EBITDA of $60 million, up from $58 million in the prior quarter, driven by higher realized pricing, improved spreads in manganese alloys, and lower energy costs.

我們公佈的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,000 萬美元，高於上一季的 5,800 萬美元，這是由於定價提高、錳合金價差改善以及能源成本降低所推動的。

On contracted volumes, prices usually lag indexes by two or three months, depending on the product.

就合約量而言，價格通常落後於指數兩到三個月，具體取決於產品。

However, end market demand remain muted and pricing continues to soften, which as discussed last quarter, will put pressure on our fourth quarter results.

然而，終端市場需求仍然低迷，定價持續疲軟，正如上季所討論的，這將對我們第四季的業績帶來壓力。

Given our results today and current outlook, we are reaffirming 2024 guidance of $150 million to $170 million.

鑑於我們今天的業績和當前的前景，我們重申 2024 年 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元的指引。

We expect to benefit from improved ferrosilicon volumes and prices in the US as a result of the ferrosilicon trade cases we initiated earlier this year.

由於我們今年稍早發起的矽鐵貿易案件，我們預計將受益於美國矽鐵產量和價格的改善。

This favorable decision by the US Department of Commerce resulted in duties on all ferrosilicon imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Brazil.

美國商務部的這項有利決定導致對從俄羅斯、哈薩克、馬來西亞和巴西進口的所有矽鐵徵收關稅。

More specifically, in June, the US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing of duties of 283% and 748% respectively on all ferrosilicon imports from Russia.

具體來說，6月份，美國對俄羅斯進口的所有矽鐵分別徵收283%和748%的反傾銷稅和反補貼稅。

For Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia, preliminary anti-dumping duty is up to 22% 69% respectively were announced on November 1.

11月1日，巴西、哈薩克和馬來西亞宣布初步反傾銷稅分別高達22%和69%。

These actions will greatly reduce the imports of artificially low-priced ferrosilicon and level the playing field, benefiting local producers such as Ferroglobe.

這些行動將大大減少人為低價矽鐵的進口，創造公平的競爭環境，使 Ferroglobe 等當地生產商受益。

As a result of these new policies, we expect to see an improvement in the US FeSi market in early 2025, as inventory in the channel is cleared and new orders are placed.

由於這些新政策的實施，我們預計美國矽鐵市場將在 2025 年初出現改善，渠道中的庫存將被清理，新訂單將被下達。

Our flexible footprint provides resilience, enabling us to manage the short-term environment effectively and adjust production to match current demand.

我們靈活的足跡提供了彈性，使我們能夠有效管理短期環境並調整生產以滿足當前需求。

Part of this adjustment includes curtailing production in France approximately one month early to maximize the rebate from our French energy agreement.

這項調整的一部分包括提前約一個月減少法國的產量，以最大限度地從我們的法國能源協議中獲得回扣。

As part of our continued effort to improve the company's performance, we recently started implementing a new S&OP process, so-called sales and operation planning process, which focuses on demand planning, optimizing raw material purchases, production, logistics, and sales.

作為我們持續努力提高公司績效的一部分，我們最近開始實施新的 S&OP 流程，即所謂的銷售和營運規劃流程，重點關注需求規劃、優化原材料採購、生產、物流和銷售。

This will allow us to operate Ferroglobe in a more integrated way with lower cost and lower working capital, enhancing our financial performance and cash flow.

這將使我們能夠以更一體化的方式、更低的成本和更低的營運資本來運作 Ferroglobe，從而提高我們的財務表現和現金流。

We continue to move forward with our long-term brownfield expansion plans to increase our silicon metal capacity in the US, to capture the higher demand that we expect to materialize from solar and B batteries in the coming years.

我們繼續推動長期棕地擴張計劃，以增加我們在美國的金屬矽產能，以滿足我們預計未來幾年太陽能和 B 電池將實現的更高需求。

This demand is forecasted by CRU to growth by nearly 140,000 tons to 365,000 tons by 2029.

CRU預計這項需求到2029年將成長近14萬噸，達到36.5萬噸。

In addition to increased capacity, the state-of-the-art furnace is expected to be the most efficient and cost-competitive in North America.

除了增加產能外，最先進的熔爐預計將成為北美最高效、最具成本競爭力的熔爐。

The furnace will incorporate Ferroglobe's technological know-how and expertise accumulated over the decades as the leading silicon metal producer in the west.

該熔爐將融合 Ferroglobe 作為西方領先的金屬矽生產商數十年來積累的技術知識和專業知識。

We are currently on track to file a permit application in the next few months.

目前，我們正準備在未來幾個月內提交許可證申請。

As a reminder, the approval process takes approximately 18 months, with construction taking an additional 24 months.

需要提醒的是，審批過程大約需要 18 個月，施工還需要 24 個月。

We anticipated markets improving in the second half of 2025, except the US FeSi market, which is expected to improve starting in the first half as a result of the mentioned trade case.

我們預計市場將在 2025 年下半年有所改善，但美國矽鐵市場除外，由於上述貿易案例，預計美國矽鐵市場將在上半年開始改善。

According to the World Steel Organization, the global steel demand in 2025 is forecast to rebound by more than 3%, excluding China.

根據世界鋼鐵組織預測，2025年全球鋼鐵需求預計將反彈3%以上，不包括中國。

The aluminum market is also expected to see better conditions in the second half as interstate rates continue to decline and outer and construction industries should begin to grow.

隨著州際運費持續下降，外部和建築業應開始成長，預計下半年鋁市場狀況將有所改善。

A Bloomberg analyst forecast a 3.3% increase in the global aluminum demand in 2025.

彭博分析師預測，2025 年全球鋁需求將成長 3.3%。

We're also excited to report that we agreed to supply silicon metal to a new large customer in the Middle East for their renewable energy initiative, highlighting our strong market position and success in expanding our solar supply chain presence.

我們也很高興地報告，我們同意向中東的一家新大客戶供應金屬矽，以支持他們的可再生能源計劃，這突顯了我們強大的市場地位以及在擴大太陽能供應鏈方面取得的成功。

This is a significant opportunity for us to accelerate growth going forward.

這對我們來說是一個加速未來成長的重要機會。

In September, we paid our quarterly dividend of $0.013 per share in the third quarter, and we also executed a small portion of our stock buyback program and established a 10b5 five share prepurchase plan.

9月份，我們支付了第三季每股0.013美元的季度股息，我們還執行了一小部分股票回購計劃，並製定了10b5五股預購計劃。

Our soon-to-be-issued third ES&G report highlights our commitment and progress on multiple fronts.

我們即將發布的第三份 ES&G 報告強調了我們在多個方面的承諾和進展。

We commit to a decarbonization plan to reduce our combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon emissions by at least 26% by 2030 compared with the 2020 baseline.

我們承諾實施脫碳計劃，到 2030 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 的碳排放量與 2020 年基準相比減少至少 26%。

Also, we have shifted to clean cost-effective biocarbon at our Sabon plant to help achieve those carbon reduction goals.

此外，我們已在 Sabon 工廠轉向清潔且具有成本效益的生物碳，以幫助實現這些碳減排目標。

The new biocarbon production plant is expected to be operational by 2026 and founded with substantial assistance from the Spanish government.

新的生物碳生產工廠預計將於 2026 年投入運營，並得到了西班牙政府的大力支持。

In addition, we have made significant progress in silicon metal traceability, encompassing the entire value chain from raw material to final products.

此外，我們在金屬矽可追溯性方面取得了重大進展，涵蓋了從原材料到最終產品的整個價值鏈。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Our third quarter revenue came in slightly lower than the second quarter due to lower volumes in all three segments.

由於所有三個細分市場的銷售量下降，我們第三季的營收略低於第二季。

Despite the soft demand, we performed well, improving our adjusted EBITDA to $60 million.

儘管需求疲軟，我們仍表現良好，將調整後的 EBITDA 提高至 6,000 萬美元。

Operating cash flow in the third quarter was $11 million, an improvement of $9 million over the period.

第三季營運現金流為 1,100 萬美元，較同期增加 900 萬美元。

Free cash flow was negative $10 million, an improvement of $10 million over the period.

自由現金流為負 1000 萬美元，較同期改善了 1000 萬美元。

My CFO, Beatriz Cos, will come back to these numbers more in details later.

我的財務長 Beatriz Cos 稍後將詳細討論這些數字。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Talking about silicon metal, revenue declined 5% in Q3 to $196 million, down from $204 million in the second quarter.

談到金屬矽，第三季營收下降 5%，至 1.96 億美元，低於第二季的 2.04 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 17%, driven by a 5% improvement in realized pricing over the prior quarter.

調整後 EBITDA 成長 17%，主要得益於實現定價較上一季提高 5%。

Our average price for silicon metal increased by 3% in Europe and 7% in the Americas compared to the second quarter.

與第二季相比，我們的金屬矽平均價格在歐洲上漲了 3%，在美洲上漲了 7%。

During the third quarter, index prices decreased approximately 15% in the US, while remaining flat in Europe.

第三季度，美國指數價格下跌約 15%，而歐洲指數價格則持平。

The difference between the index and the realized price was the result of the three-month lag in price realization for contracted volumes.

該指數與實際價格之間的差異是由於合約成交量的價格實現存在三個月的滯後所造成的。

Overall ship volumes were down 9%, with all regions showing lower shipments.

整體船運量下降 9%，所有地區的出貨量均下降。

European and US shipments were declined by 6% and 9% respectively.

歐洲和美國的出貨量分別下降了6%和9%。

The silicon metal outlook is mixed.

矽金屬前景好壞參半。

Chemical and electronics markets are stable and the aluminum sector remains weak in both Europe and in the US in the short term.

短期內，歐洲和美國的化學和電子市場穩定，鋁業仍然疲軟。

We believe the broad stimulus in the US and China, combined with interest rate cuts, should begin to drive improved demand in the second half of 2025.

我們認為，美國和中國的廣泛刺激措施，加上降息，應該會在 2025 年下半年開始推動需求改善。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Let's move to silicon-based alloys.

讓我們轉向矽基合金。

This segment had an adjusted EBITDA of $2 million in Q3, down from $10 million in the second quarter.

該部門第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 200 萬美元，低於第二季的 1,000 萬美元。

The decline was primarily due to lower fixed cost absorption.

下降主要是由於固定成本吸收減少。

Average realized prices were flat compared to the prior quarter in Europe and North America.

歐洲和北美的平均實現價格與上一季持平。

European FeSi ferrosilicon standard index is currently at a four-year low, reflecting lackluster demand and increased imports mainly from Central Asia.

歐洲矽鐵標準指數目前處於四年來的低點，反映出需求低迷以及主要來自中亞的進口增加。

These products have gained market share due to predatory pricing.

這些產品由於掠奪性定價而獲得了市場份額。

To preserve a level playing field, we continue to work on potential trade measures within EU.

為了維持公平的競爭環境，我們繼續在歐盟內部研究潛在的貿易措施。

Both US and European shipments volumes were down 1% in the third quarter as industrial activity remains mute.

由於工業活動依然低迷，美國和歐洲第三季出貨量均下降 1%。

In its latest World Steel Association report, EU steel production grew 0.2%, with the US posting a 1.2% growth in September.

世界鋼鐵協會最新報告顯示，9 月歐盟鋼鐵產量增加 0.2%，美國成長 1.2%。

We expect the European market to be stable in the near term, while the US market is expected to benefit from FeSi trade case and a more robust economic outlook in 2025.

我們預計歐洲市場近期將保持穩定，而美國市場預計將受益於矽鐵貿易案例和 2025 年更強勁的經濟前景。

Within the silicon alloy segment, the foundry continues to outperform.

在矽合金領域，鑄造廠繼續表現出色。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

And let's move to manganese alloys.

讓我們轉向錳合金。

Revenue decreased 9% to $90 million in Q3, driven by a 24% decrease in European shipments due to soft demand.

由於需求疲軟，歐洲出貨量下降 24%，導致第三季營收下降 9% 至 9,000 萬美元。

This was partially offset by a substantial 16% price increase in the third quarter, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $28 million, up 100% over the previous quarter.

第三季價格大幅上漲 16%，部分抵銷了這一影響，調整後 EBITDA 為 2,800 萬美元，比上一季成長 100%。

After a significant run-up following the shutdown of South32 GEMCO mine in late March, manganese ore prices have since dropped by approximately 60%.

3 月下旬 South32 GEMCO 礦場關閉後，錳礦石價格大幅上漲，此後已下跌約 60%。

We continue to benefit in the third quarter as we sold our lower cost inventory at higher realized manganese alloy prices.

我們在第三季繼續受益，因為我們以更高的錳合金實現價格出售了成本較低的庫存。

The underlying demand is still weak and is expected to continue for the fourth quarter and the first half of 2025.

潛在需求依然疲弱，預計第四季和2025年上半年將持續。

However, we still anticipate spread to remain positive.

然而，我們仍然預期利差將保持正面。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer, to review the financial results in more detail.

現在我想將電話轉給我們的財務長 Beatriz Garcia-Cos，以更詳細地審查財務業績。

Beatriz?

比阿特麗斯？

Thank you, Marco.

謝謝你，馬可。

Before I go through our third quarter results, I will provide an update on the share repurchase program.

在公佈第三季業績之前，我將提供有關股票回購計劃的最新資訊。

During the quarter, we purchased approximately 117,000 shares at an average price of $4.22. The modest approach with our buyback program is a result of the current uncertainty in our end markets.

本季度，我們以 4.22 美元的平均價格購買了約 117,000 股股票。我們採取溫和的回購計劃是當前終端市場不確定性的結果。

As we begin to see signs of improvement and better visibility, we plan to become more proactive.

當我們開始看到改善的跡象和更好的可見性時，我們計劃變得更加積極主動。

Our first priority is ensuring that we maintain a strong balance sheet to make sure that Ferroglobe is well positioned to withstand the downcycle that we are currently experiencing and also have the ability to invest in growth markets such as solar and electric vehicles as these opportunities materialize.

我們的首要任務是確保保持強勁的資產負債表，以確保 Ferroglobe 能夠處於有利地位，能夠承受我們目前正在經歷的下行週期，並且在這些機會實現時有能力投資於太陽能和電動汽車等增長市場。

In addition to our discretionary buyback program, we set up a 10b5 program, allowing purchases during a closed window if certain criteria are met.

除了我們的酌情回購計劃外，我們還制定了 10b5 計劃，如果滿足某些條件，則允許在關閉窗口期間進行購買。

As a reminder, we need $120 million to $150 million of cash to operate our day-to-day business.

提醒一下，我們需要 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元的現金來經營日常業務。

In 2025, our EUR35 million SEPI loan in Spain is due in two payments with the first half due in Q1 and the remainder in Q2.

2025 年，我們在西班牙的 3,500 萬歐元 SEPI 貸款將分兩次到期，其中一半在第一季到期，其餘部分在第二季到期。

Please turn now to slide 10 for a review of the income statement.

現在請翻到投影片 10，查看損益表。

Sales decreased 4% in the third quarter to $434 million.

第三季銷售額下降 4%，至 4.34 億美元。

During Q3, we saw lower volumes across all three segments with stronger silicon metal and manganese alloys prices, partially offsetting weak demand.

第三季度，我們看到所有三個細分市場的銷售量均下降，矽金屬和錳合金價格走強，部分抵銷了疲軟的需求。

Raw materials and energy consumption for production remained flat with a Q2 at 59% of sales, primarily driven by higher energy compensation in France.

生產中的原材料和能源消耗與第二季持平，佔銷售額的 59%，這主要是由於法國能源補償的增加。

Staff costs increased $5 million in the third quarter to $72 million, primarily due to profit-sharing arrangements in Europe.

第三季員工成本增加了 500 萬美元，達到 7,200 萬美元，這主要是由於歐洲的利潤分享安排。

Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $60 million versus $58 million in the prior quarter.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 6,000 萬美元，上一季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,800 萬美元。

During the quarter, we earned approximately $20 million from our 2024 French energy agreement, which increased our EBITDA by the same amount.

本季度，我們從 2024 年法國能源協議中賺取了約 2000 萬美元，這使我們的 EBITDA 增加了相同金額。

Due to early idling of our French operations, we now expect to benefit from the energy agreement by approximately $60 million for the year compared to our prior estimate of approximately $40 million.

由於我們法國業務提前閒置，我們現在預計今年將從能源協議中受益約 6000 萬美元，而我們先前的估計約為 4000 萬美元。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Our adjusted EBITDA was $60 million in the third quarter, up 5% from Q2, driven primarily by stronger realized prices.

第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 6,000 萬美元，比第二季成長 5%，這主要是由於實現價格走強所致。

Silicon metal prices increased 5% from the prior quarter and manganese alloys were up 16%, while silicon alloys were flat.

金屬矽合金價格較上月上漲 5%，錳合金價格上漲 16%，矽合金價格持平。

Stronger third quarter sales prices benefit from higher index prices in the second quarter due to a two- to three-month lag between indexes and realized prices.

由於指數與實際價格之間存在兩到三個月的滯後，第二季指數價格上漲，第三季銷售價格走強。

Volume negatively impacted our adjusted EBITDA by $8 million, driven by soft demand across our three segments, with volumes decline of 10%, 3% and 21% in silicon metal, silicon-based alloys and manganese alloys respectively.

由於三個細分市場的需求疲軟，銷量對我們調整後的 EBITDA 產生了 800 萬美元的負面影響，其中矽金屬、矽基合金和錳合金的銷量分別下降了 10%、3% 和 21%。

Head office and non-core business negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA by $5 million as a result of lower volumes at our mining operations.

由於我們採礦業務的產量下降，總部和非核心業務對調整後 EBITDA 產生了 500 萬美元的負面影響。

Slide 12, please.

請投影片 12。

During the third quarter, our free cash flow was negative $10 million, impacted by use of cash by working capital of $21 million.

第三季度，由於營運資金使用現金 2,100 萬美元，我們的自由現金流為負 1,000 萬美元。

This was partially offset by $11 million partial collection of the French energy rebate.

這被法國能源退稅的 1,100 萬美元部分抵消。

We expect to collect another $20 million in the fourth quarter and the remaining $30 million in early 2025.

我們預計在第四季再籌集 2,000 萬美元，並在 2025 年初籌集剩餘的 3,000 萬美元。

CapEx outflows in the third quarter were $21 million versus $22 million in the prior quarter.

第三季資本支出流出為 2,100 萬美元，上一季為 2,200 萬美元。

We paid $2.4 million or a $0.013 per share dividend on September 27, and are scheduled to pay our fourth quarter dividend of $0.013 per share on December 27.

我們於 9 月 27 日支付了 240 萬美元，即每股 0.013 美元的股息，並計劃於 12 月 27 日支付每股 0.013 美元的第四季度股息。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

We ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $121 million, down from $145 million at the end of the second quarter.

第三季末我們的現金餘額為 1.21 億美元，低於第二季末的 1.45 億美元。

Our positive net cash position declined from $64 million to $32 million in the third quarter, while our adjusted gross debt remained moderate, ending at $89 million as of September 30.

第三季度，我們的正淨現金部位從 6,400 萬美元下降到 3,200 萬美元，而調整後的總債務保持適度，截至 9 月 30 日為 8,900 萬美元。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

And at this time, I'll turn the call back over to Marco.

此時，我會將電話轉回給 Marco。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Beatriz.

謝謝你，比阿特麗斯。

Moving to the key takeaways on slide 15.

前往投影片 15 上的關鍵要點。

We had another strong quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of $60 million as our realized manganese alloy and silicon metal prices improved over the second quarter.

由於我們的錳合金和矽金屬價格較第二季度有所改善，我們迎來了一個強勁的季度，調整後的 EBITDA 為 6000 萬美元。

The favorable US ferrosilicon anti-dumping decision is final regarding Russia and preliminary for Brazil, Kazakhstan and Malaysia.

美國有利的矽鐵反傾銷決定對俄羅斯是最終決定，對巴西、哈薩克和馬來西亞是初步決定。

We expect the successful trade action to provide Ferroglobe with a strong tailwind in the US in 2025 and beyond.

我們預計成功的貿易行動將為 Ferroglobe 在 2025 年及以後的美國市場帶來強勁的推動力。

We are managing our production to match the current demand and are proactively controlling expenditures.

我們正在管理生產以滿足當前需求，並積極控制支出。

As a result of lower interest rates and positive forecasts for steel and aluminum, we anticipate better market conditions in the second half of 2025.

由於利率較低以及對鋼鐵和鋁的積極預測，我們預計 2025 年下半年市場狀況會更好。

We continue executing our capital return policy for ongoing dividends and share repurchases.

我們繼續執行持續股利和股票回購的資本回報政策。

Operator, thank you.

接線員，謝謝。

We are ready for questions.

我們已準備好接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley.

（操作員說明）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley。

Marco, my first question is on the US expansion that you had mentioned in the prepared remarks.

馬可，我的第一個問題是關於你在準備好的發言中提到的美國擴張問題。

Could you provide a bit more color as to the cost, the capacity?

您能否提供更多有關成本和容量的資訊？

I think you mentioned time line in regards to permitting, but if you could reiterate some of those comments, that would be helpful.

我認為您提到了有關許可的時間線，但如果您可以重申其中一些評論，那將會有所幫助。

Yes, Lucas, thanks for the question.

是的，盧卡斯，謝謝你的提問。

We confirm that our expansion will take place brownfield as we firmly believe that the expansion brownfield is going to be definitely very, very competitive.

我們確認我們的擴張將在棕地進行，因為我們堅信擴張棕地肯定會非常非常有競爭力。

Our estimate is that the CapEx required is between 30% and 50% lower than a greenfield.

我們估計所需的資本支出比新建項目低 30% 到 50%。

We are excited about it because we have technology available that allows us to believe that we -- our investment is going to be extremely cost competitive due to the size of the furnace or the furnaces that we're going to put at our location.

我們對此感到興奮，因為我們擁有可用的技術，使我們相信，由於我們要在我們所在地放置的熔爐的尺寸，我們的投資將極具成本競爭力。

We have not decided yet about the location.

我們還沒決定地點。

But we are -- as we apply, we are applying for permits at least at two of our locations in US and we are in the middle of the work to apply for the permit.

但我們在申請時，至少在美國的兩個地點申請許可證，我們正在申請許可證的工作中。

All this work on average lasts about 18 months.

所有這些工作平均持續約 18 個月。

And then it takes us about two years to build the brownfield capacity based on our requirements.

然後我們花了大約兩年的時間根據我們的要求建造棕地產能。

We have not decided yet either about the location or the capacity addition that we are going to put in place.

我們尚未決定我們將要增加的位置或容量。

But the expectation is that we are going to start up new capacity latest at the beginning of 2028.

但預計我們最晚將在 2028 年初啟動新產能。

And Marco, just to go back on the capacity figure for this.

Marco，我想回顧一下容量數據。

Any ballpark that you could point to as kind of out for one from -- would be helpful to get a bit better understanding.

你可以指出的任何一個大概，都有助於更好地理解。

Yes.

是的。

I mean what we have in mind is minimum 60,000 tons, but it could be bigger depending on the technology that we choose.

我的意思是，我們的想法是至少 60,000 噸，但根據我們選擇的技術，它可能會更大。

And in terms of the capital cost per ton of capacity, is there a rule of thumb to think of for this specific development?

就每噸產能的資本成本而言，對於這個特定的開發是否有一個經驗法則可以考慮？

I can give you a market indication, $200 million.

我可以給你一個市場預測，2億美元。

Turning a little bit more to the near-term outlook.

更多轉向近期前景。

Some movement on working capital expected in Q4, if I heard it right.

如果我沒聽錯的話，預計第四季營運資金會出現一些變化。

But I wondered if you could maybe just put everything together for Q4 between kind of market conditions, pricing, working capital, where would you expect to end the year from a free cash flow perspective?

但我想知道您是否可以將第四季度的所有內容放在一起，包括市場狀況、定價、營運資金，從自由現金流的角度來看，您預計今年年底會怎樣？

Yes.

是的。

Beatriz will answer this question.

貝阿特麗斯將回答這個問題。

Lucas, thank you for the question.

盧卡斯，謝謝你的提問。

I think on Q2, we already announced a release of working capital.

我認為在第二季度，我們已經宣布釋放營運資金。

We confirm the release of the working capital in Q4.

我們確認第四季將釋放營運資金。

The size of this release could be, I'm talking overall working capital, around $15 million, 1-5.

我說的是整體營運資金，本次發行的規模可能約為 1500 萬美元，1-5。

This is what we expect at the moment.

這就是我們目前所期望的。

And the operational market outlook for Q4, how would that factor into expectations?

第四季的營運市場前景如何影響預期？

Yes.

是的。

So as you know, we are idling our plants in France for Q4, right?

如您所知，我們在第四季度的法國工廠將處於閒置狀態，對嗎？

So we have been building in working capital in Q2 and in Q3, right -- sorry, in Q3.

因此，我們一直在第二季和第三季建立營運資金，對吧——抱歉，在第三季。

And we're going to be releasing it in Q4 2024 as we need to sell from our inventories, right?

我們將在 2024 年第四季度發布它，因為我們需要出售庫存，對吧？

And of course, this has the -- the benefit of that is the benefit on the energy where we were expecting initially to get $40 million.

當然，這樣做的好處是能源方面的好處，我們最初預計能獲得 4000 萬美元。

You remember at the beginning of the year, this is what we said.

你記得年初的時候，我們就是這麼說的。

Now we are seeing that as a result of this early idling of our plants in France, we're going to be going up to $60 million for the year.

現在我們看到，由於法國工廠提前閒置，我們今年的收入將達到 6,000 萬美元。

Martin Englert, Seaport Research.

馬丁恩格勒特，海港研究中心。

Within the silicon-based alloy segment, there was slight movement in volumes, so they were essentially flat quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year, but the fixed cost absorption was cited as an issue.

在矽基合金領域，銷量略有變化，因此季度環比、同比基本持平，但固定成本吸收被認為是一個問題。

Margins were fairly compressed.

利潤率相當壓縮。

Can you provide more detail on that?

能提供更多細節嗎？

Is there some dynamic with differing volumes and fixed cost trends across your regional footprint that prompted this?

您的區域足跡中是否存在不同數量和固定成本趨勢的動態導致了這種情況？

Or was there something else behind it?

還是背後另有隱情？

I can start addressing this question and then Beatriz, feel free to add comments.

我可以開始解決這個問題，然後 Beatriz，請隨意添加評論。

The market in Europe for the bulk of ferrosilicon, which goes to steel -- I'm excluding considerations on foundry now -- is defined by, like I said, the very flat demand at low level.

歐洲大部分矽鐵市場（用於鋼鐵）——我現在不考慮鑄造廠——的定義是，正如我所說，低水平的需求非常平穩。

And in Europe, the price -- further price erosion is driven by increased -- continuously increased imports, not only from Kazakhstan that I always mentioned, but also from Egypt, for example, or Iran.

在歐洲，價格——進一步的價格侵蝕是由不斷增加的進口推動的——不僅來自我一直提到的哈薩克斯坦，而且來自埃及或伊朗。

So there is -- there are massive imports of ferrosilicon standards in Europe that combined with a weak demand drive price erosion.

因此，歐洲大量進口矽鐵標準，加上需求疲軟，導致價格下跌。

And indeed, in my speech, I mentioned that the price level in this quarter has already reached the lowest level that we have seen in the last four years.

事實上，我在演講中提到，本季的物價水準已經達到了過去四年來的最低水準。

So definitely, margin compression.

所以肯定是利潤率壓縮。

In US, there is a different dynamic.

在美國，情況則不同。

I would say that the market is rather -- steel market is rather flat in US.

我想說的是，美國鋼鐵市場相當平淡。

And the -- but there are still inventories, like we mentioned in the last quarter of important materials, including Russia, that prevent the price to recover and our sales to develop.

但仍然存在庫存，就像我們在上個季度提到的重要材料（包括俄羅斯）一樣，這阻礙了價格的回升和我們的銷售的發展。

So being in these two situations in US and Europe, we have reduced our production.

所以針對美國和歐洲的這兩種情況，我們減少了產量。

And from there, our cost of absorption has gone up.

從那時起，我們的吸收成本就上升了。

I don't know, Beatriz, if there is anything else that you can add?

不知道 Beatriz 您還有什麼可以補充的嗎？

No, you're saying all the -- maybe the only comment to add, Martin, is as I was mentioning to Lucas, the year-end benefit has been benefiting silicon and manganese business, right?

不，你說的是，馬丁，也許唯一要補充的評論是，正如我向盧卡斯提到的那樣，年終福利一直有利於矽和錳業務，對吧？

But not so much the silicon-based alloys business because we have only a small plant in France, Pierrefitte, that produce the ferrosilicon products, and partly Laudun.

但矽基合金業務的影響不大，因為我們在法國祇有一家小型工廠 Pierrefitte，生產矽鐵產品，並生產部分 Laudun 矽鐵產品。

So the positive benefit of the energy has not been impacting the cost as on the other two business.

因此，能源的正面效益並沒有像其他兩項業務那樣影響成本。

And therefore, this impact on the fixed cost -- lack of fixed cost absorption.

因此，這對固定成本產生了影響——固定成本吸收不足。

And margin compression, like you're saying.

正如你所說，還有利潤壓縮。

Plus the margin compression, yes.

加上邊際壓縮，是的。

Are you able to provide a little bit more color on -- the volumes were largely flattish.

你能提供更多一點的顏色嗎——體積基本上是平的。

It seems -- correct me if I'm wrong, but the activity in both the EU and US from a demand perspective is largely flattish, but you noted production is lower.

看來——如果我錯了，請糾正我，但從需求角度來看，歐盟和美國的活動基本上持平，但你注意到產量較低。

For ferrosilicon, are you able to share what the change in production was quarter-on-quarter within the US or North American footprint versus the Europe footprint?

對於矽鐵，您能否分享美國或北美地區與歐洲地區的產量較上月變化？

For these details, Martin, we need to go back to our numbers and give you the right production rate.

對於這些細節，馬丁，我們需要返回我們的數字並為您提供正確的生產率。

I don't have them with me now.

我現在沒有帶它們。

Okay.

好的。

That's fine.

沒關係。

We can circle back on it.

我們可以繞回來。

I do appreciate the color.

我很欣賞這種顏色。

Pivoting to the US ferrosilicon import tariffs that we have seen, do you feel that the tariff levels are sufficient to properly protect the US market?

就我們看到的美國矽鐵進口關稅而言，您認為關稅水準是否足以妥善保護美國市場？

And are they kind of aligned with where you expected they might shake out?

它們是否與您預期的結果一致？

And then in addition to that, if you can just play out your expectations for how this is going to impact the market from a price volume perspective if we look forward into first half '25?

除此之外，如果我們展望 25 年上半年，您能否從價格量的角度來闡述您對這將如何影響市場的預期？

Well, we need to separate the topic here because if we talk about imports from Russia, everything has been already decided and the total fees are far beyond our expectations, right?

好吧，我們需要在這裡分開這個話題，因為如果我們談論從俄羅斯進口的話，一切都已經決定了，總費用遠遠超出了我們的預期，對吧？

So a 1,000% fee was totally unexpected, but this is real.

所以 1000% 的費用完全出乎意料，但這是真的。

And if you look at the volumes in 2023 sold by Russia to the US are about, looking at imports, 70,000 tons, so about 30%, 35% of the consumption of the steel industry in US.

如果你看看2023年俄羅斯向美國銷售的數量約為7萬噸，那麼約占美國鋼鐵業消費量的30%、35%。

So this is a fact is there and these volumes will have to be supplied by somebody else, local producers and other producers.

因此，這是一個事實，這些數量必須由其他人、當地生產商和其他生產商提供。

When we talk about Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Brazil, there are some predetermined conclusions, but they are not final.

當我們談論哈薩克、馬來西亞和巴西時，有一些預定的結論，但它們不是最終的。

So I am not like the famous blogger in US who pretends to know the decisions of the authorities.

所以我不像美國著名的部落客那樣假裝知道當局的決定。

I wait for the authorities to tell us what are the final decisions about the injuries of Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Brazil.

我等待當局告訴我們關於哈薩克、馬來西亞和巴西傷病的最終決定是什麼。

What I can tell you is that these three countries in 2023 accounted for another 70,000 tons of ferrosilicon supplied to the US.

我可以告訴你的是，2023年這三個國家又佔了美國矽鐵供應量的7萬噸。

And for sure, there will be measures taken towards these three countries.

可以肯定的是，將會對這三個國家採取措施。

We have to understand the size and still understand the impact.

我們必須了解其規模，並了解其影響。

Another information, I can confirm that we have acquired two new contracts on ferrosilicon standard in US for 2025, contracts which are significant.

另外一個訊息，我可以確認的是，我們已經在美國獲得了兩份2025年矽鐵標準的新合同，這些合約意義重大。

But I assume that also the purchasers are waiting for the confirmation of the duties on these three countries to make their decisions on 2025.

但我認為購買者也在等待這三個國家關稅的確認，以便在 2025 年做出決定。

For the two new contracts maybe combined, is there a range of volume that you would anticipate annually gaining from these?

對於可能合併的兩份新合同，您預計每年會從中獲得一定的交易量範圍嗎？

Well, like I said, I don't want to refer to specific contracts.

嗯，就像我說的，我不想提及具體的合約。

Like I said, there are significant volumes.

就像我說的，數量很大。

We are talking about thousands of tons.

我們正在談論數千噸。

But lacking the final decision of the authorities, which is due in November, the customers are waiting for finalizing the negotiations for 2025.

但由於當局將於 11 月做出最終決定，因此客戶正在等待 2025 年的最終談判。

So I don't have a defined growth number for our sales of ferrosilicon in 2025 yet.

所以我還沒有 2025 年矽鐵銷量的明確成長數字。

Given your comment just a few seconds ago about not wanting to provide the detail, which I understand on the contracts, but can you provide anything else you noted with a Middle Eastern new silicon contract?

鑑於您幾秒鐘前關於不想提供細節的評論，我對合約的了解，但是您能否提供您在中東新矽合約中註意到的其他任何內容？

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

This is related to silicon metal and the startup of silicon -- one silicon production, large silicon -- polysilicon production unit in the Middle East.

這與金屬矽和中東矽——一種矽生產、大型矽——多晶矽生產裝置的啟動有關。

We are being invited to the table, and we have got part of the business.

我們被邀請參加談判，我們也得到了一部分業務。

And this goes to the fact that our volumes of silicon metal are completely traceable, and this has been given us the opportunity to win some additional new business in the Middle East totally related to solar.

事實上，我們的金屬矽數量是完全可追溯的，這使我們有機會在中東贏得一些與太陽能完全相關的額外新業務。

For the Middle Eastern project, can you remind me of the polysilicon capacity at that plant?

對於中東項目，您能否提醒我該工廠的多晶矽產能？

100,000 tons as far as I know, which will ramp up during 2025.

據我所知是10萬噸，2025年還會增加。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I will now turn the conference back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

現在我將把會議轉回給馬可·萊維（Marco Levi）致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Marvi, and thank you for pronouncing my last name correctly.

謝謝你，馬維，也謝謝你正確地發音了我的姓氏。

Appreciated.

讚賞。

Combined with the benefit of FeSi import duties into US, we expect better overall market conditions to materialize in the second half of 2025 as the full effect of interest rate cuts and destocking begin stimulating demand next year.

結合美國矽鐵進口關稅的好處，隨著降息和去庫存的全面影響明年開始刺激需求，我們預計 2025 年下半年將出現更好的整體市場狀況。

Thank you again for your participation.

再次感謝您的參與。

We look forward to hearing from you on the next call.

我們期待在下次通話中收到您的來信。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for joining.

感謝大家的加入。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。