葛蘭素史克 (GSK) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Welcome to our half year and Q2 2023 conference call and webcast for investors and analysts. The presentation was sent to our distribution list by e-mail, and you can also find it on gsk.com.

大家好。歡迎參加我們為投資者和分析師舉辦的半年和 2023 年第二季度電話會議和網絡廣播。該演示文稿已通過電子郵件發送到我們的分發列表，您也可以在 gsk.com 上找到它。

Please turn to Slide 2. This is the usual safe harbor statement. We'll comment on our performance using constant exchange rates, or CER, unless stated otherwise. As a reminder, following the Consumer Healthcare demerger in 2022 to form Haleon, we're presenting performance and growth from the continuing operations for GSK.

請翻到幻燈片 2。這是通常的安全港聲明。除非另有說明，我們將使用固定匯率 (CER) 來評價我們的業績。謹此提醒，繼 2022 年消費者保健業務分拆成立 Haleon 後，我們將展示 GSK 持續運營的業績和增長。

Please turn to Slide 3. Today's call will last approximately 1 hour and management presentation will take between 30 to 35 minutes with the remaining time for your questions. (Operator Instructions) Our speakers today are Emma Walmsley, Tony Wood, Luke Miels, Deborah Waterhouse and Julie Brown, with David Redfern joining the rest of the team for the Q&A portion of the call.

請翻到幻燈片 3。今天的電話會議將持續大約 1 小時，管理層的演示將持續 30 到 35 分鐘，剩下的時間是提問。 （操作員說明）今天的演講者包括艾瑪·沃姆斯利 (Emma Walmsley)、托尼·伍德 (Tony Wood)、盧克·米爾斯 (Luke Miels)、黛博拉·沃特豪斯 (Deborah Waterhouse) 和朱莉·布朗 (Julie Brown)，大衛·雷德芬 (David Redfern) 與團隊其他成員一起參與電話問答部分。

Turning to Slide 4. I will now hand the call over to Emma.

轉向幻燈片 4。我現在將把電話轉給艾瑪。

Thanks, Nick, and a very warm welcome to everyone joining us today. I'm delighted to be presenting to you all another set of excellent results for GSK. Please turn to the next slide.

謝謝尼克，並熱烈歡迎今天加入我們的所有人。我很高興向您展示葛蘭素史克又一組出色的成果。請翻到下一張幻燈片。

Sales and profits grew at double-digit levels for the quarter, our sixth consecutive quarter of strong growth. Sales were GBP 7.2 billion, up 11%, excluding pandemic solutions. Adjusted operating profit was up 12% to GBP 2.2 billion. And adjusted EPS were up 17% to GBP 38.8p. This is further evidence of a sustained step change in GSK's performance, and this momentum supports our decision to upgrade our guidance for the year.

本季度銷售額和利潤以兩位數水平增長，這是我們連續第六個季度強勁增長。銷售額為 72 億英鎊，增長 11%（不包括流行病解決方案）。調整後營業利潤增長 12%，達到 22 億英鎊。調整後每股收益增長 17%，達到 38.8 便士。這進一步證明葛蘭素史克業績持續發生變化，這種勢頭支持我們上調今年業績指引的決定。

Our performance also demonstrated delivery of the strategic choices we've made to develop the portfolio and the R&D pipeline. New products, notably in vaccines and HIV, all made healthy contributions to growth and reflect the investments we've made to prioritize these parts of our business. 62% of sales are now coming from Vaccines and Specialty Medicines, which we expect to provide durable and profitable growth through the decade. And new products launched since 2017 have contributed to sales of GBP 4.6 billion so far this year, adding nearly GBP 1 billion of distributional turnover compared to 2022. Equally, our General Medicines business continues to perform alongside the other parts of our portfolio. Next slide, please.

我們的業績還證明了我們為開發產品組合和研發渠道而做出的戰略選擇的交付。新產品，特別是疫苗和艾滋病毒領域的新產品，都對增長做出了健康的貢獻，並反映了我們為優先考慮這些業務部分而進行的投資。目前 62% 的銷售額來自疫苗和特種藥物，我們預計這將在十年內實現持久且盈利的增長。 2017 年以來推出的新產品今年迄今已貢獻 46 億英鎊的銷售額，與 2022 年相比增加了近 10 億英鎊的分銷營業額。同樣，我們的普通藥品業務繼續與我們產品組合的其他部分一起表現良好。請下一張幻燈片。

We are deploying capital in a financially disciplined way to invest in growth and deliver stronger returns to shareholders. We are delivering on our commitments. And as you can see from the slide, we are on track to hit all the targets we set out in 2021. As you all know, our very first priority to capital remains to invest in continued pipeline progress. And we know this is the key question to shareholders. At the core of our work is an aggressive pursuit for organic pipeline delivery and targeted business development. We are making good progress on both, and there is more to come.

我們正在以財務嚴謹的方式部署資本，投資於增長並為股東帶來更豐厚的回報。我們正在兌現我們的承諾。正如您從幻燈片中看到的，我們有望實現 2021 年設定的所有目標。眾所周知，我們資本的首要任務仍然是投資於持續的管道進展。我們知道這是股東的關鍵問題。我們工作的核心是積極追求有機管道交付和有針對性的業務發展。我們在這兩方面都取得了良好進展，並且還會取得更多進展。

The approval of Arexvy this quarter is, we believe, transformational and set to bring enormous benefit to people aged over 60, who are annual exposure of RSV. Arexvy is spearheading the next wave of vaccine innovation at GSK. This quarter, we presented positive pivotal data for our pentavalent meningitis vaccine, secured regulatory approval for Shingrix in Japan in at-risk populations, and achieved U.S. FDA Fast Track designation for our candidate vaccine to prevent gonorrhea, a bacterium that is considered a high-priority pathogen by the WHO.

我們相信，本季度 Arexvy 的批准具有變革意義，將為每年接觸 RSV 的 60 歲以上人群帶來巨大利益。 Arexvy 正在引領葛蘭素史克下一波疫苗創新浪潮。本季度，我們公佈了五價腦膜炎疫苗的積極關鍵數據，獲得了日本監管部門對 Shingrix 用於高危人群的批准，並為我們的候選疫苗獲得了美國 FDA 快速通道指定，用於預防淋病，淋病是一種被認為是高危細菌的細菌。世界衛生組織優先病原體。

And as you could have seen at our recent Meet the Management event, we have substantial innovation to come with potential new vaccines to prevent influenza, pneumococcal disease and herpes simplex virus. This all sits alongside other innovation in infectious diseases like bepirovirsen for hep B and a new portfolio of much-needed anti-infectives.

正如您在我們最近的“與管理層會面”活動中所看到的，我們有大量創新成果，可用於預防流感、肺炎球菌疾病和單純皰疹病毒的潛在新疫苗。這一切都與傳染病方面的其他創新一起出現，例如治療乙型肝炎的貝匹羅韋森和急需的新抗感染藥物組合。

We're also very pleased with the progress we're making in our HIV portfolio. A key aspect here is, of course, to develop the portfolio to replace the loss of exclusivity to dolutegravir, which, as a reminder, is not expected to start until 2028 in the U.S. and 2029 in Europe. We are well on track to do this. We expect sales from our new long-acting regimens of around GBP 2 billion by 2026.

我們對艾滋病毒產品組合所取得的進展也感到非常滿意。當然，這裡的一個關鍵方面是開發產品組合，以取代多替拉韋失去的排他性，提醒一下，預計要到 2028 年在美國和 2029 年才會在歐洲開始。我們正在順利實現這一目標。我們預計到 2026 年，我們新的長效療法的銷售額將達到約 20 億英鎊。

And to add to this, clinical development plans are advancing very well to support new ultra long-acting options launching from 2026. And with these innovations, we aim to replace the majority of revenues from dolutegravir and support profitable growth for GSK well into the next decade. And we're looking forward to talking to you more about this at our HIV Meet the Management Event in late September.

除此之外，臨床開發計劃正在順利推進，以支持從 2026 年起推出的新的超長效選擇。通過這些創新，我們的目標是取代多替拉韋的大部分收入，並支持葛蘭素史克在下一個階段的盈利增長。十年。我們期待在 9 月下旬舉行的 HIV 管理會議活動中與您更多地討論這一問題。

Equally, we continue to make good progress in our business development. Here, we're targeting acquisitions and partnerships to strengthen and complement our core therapy areas to help deliver above and beyond our current long-term outlook. So you should expect to see us keep up probably the same levels and pace of BD as we have in the last 18 months. This quarter, we completed the acquisition of BELLUS Health. They're adding upon our respiratory expertise with the addition of the camlipixant, a Phase III potential best-in-class treatment for refractory chronic cough. Our pipeline in broader respiratory is developing well, too, across all 3 product areas, and we're increasingly confident it will be a major source of new long-term growth. Next slide, please.

同樣，我們的業務發展也繼續取得良好進展。在這裡，我們的目標是收購和合作夥伴關係，以加強和補充我們的核心治療領域，以幫助實現超越我們當前的長期前景。因此，您應該會看到我們在 BD 方面保持與過去 18 個月相同的水平和速度。本季度，我們完成了對 BELLUS Health 的收購。他們通過添加 camlipixant 來增強我們的呼吸專業知識，這是一種治療難治性慢性咳嗽的 III 期潛在最佳治療藥物。我們在更廣泛的呼吸系統領域的產品線在所有 3 個產品領域也都發展良好，我們越來越有信心它將成為新的長期增長的主要來源。請下一張幻燈片。

Our focus is to deliver competitive performance and improved shareholder value in the short, medium and long term. With our current momentum and further successful execution of our priorities, we are very confident in our ability to deliver profitable sales growth in all 3 of these time frames. For 2023, we now expect to deliver sales growth of 8% to 10% and adjusted operating profit growth of 11% to 13%. For 2026, we expect to deliver sales of more than 5% and adjusted operations profit of more than 10% on a CAGR basis. And by 2031, we're confident we will have effectively absorbed any impact from the loss of exclusivity across the portfolio to deliver our stated ambition of more than GBP 33 billion in sales.

我們的重點是在短期、中期和長期內提供有競爭力的業績並提高股東價值。憑藉我們目前的勢頭以及對優先事項的進一步成功執行，我們對在所有這三個時間範圍內實現盈利銷售增長的能力非常有信心。對於 2023 年，我們目前預計銷售額增長 8% 至 10%，調整後營業利潤增長 11% 至 13%。到 2026 年，我們預計銷售額複合年增長率將超過 5%，調整後運營利潤將超過 10%。我們相信，到 2031 年，我們將有效吸收因整個產品組合失去獨家經營權而產生的任何影響，以實現我們所宣稱的超過 330 億英鎊銷售額的目標。

We know this ambition is significantly higher than current market expectations. And over the next year, we'll continue to bring you more clarity and specificity on our building blocks that deliver profitable results through a series of Meet the Management events, data readouts and a more comprehensive update against our 2021 long-term plan.

我們知道這一雄心遠高於當前市場預期。在接下來的一年裡，我們將繼續通過一系列與管理層會面活動、數據讀出和針對我們 2021 年長期計劃的更全面更新，為您提供更加清晰和具體的構建模塊，以實現盈利結果。

Let me now hand over to Tony, who will talk you through his latest thoughts on R&D priorities and performance.

現在讓我把時間交給托尼，他將向您介紹他對研發優先事項和績效的最新想法。

Thank you, Emma, and hello, everyone. It's great to be with you today. Please turn to Slide 9.

謝謝你，艾瑪，大家好。今天很高興和你在一起。請翻到幻燈片 9。

I'm pleased to report that we're making good progress in strengthening the pipeline and we know there's more to come. Our absolute focus is to develop a robust pipeline that can drive a sustainable, profitable growth. I see this being achieved through a combination of organic delivery and disciplined business development overlaid with continuous improvement in R&D productivity. This is reflected in my 3 priorities for R&D shown on this slide and in the delivery of our strategy, which is focused across 4 therapeutic areas, and aims to leverage our deep understanding of the immune system and use of advanced technologies. Next slide, please.

我很高興地報告，我們在加強渠道方面取得了良好進展，而且我們知道還會有更多進展。我們的絕對重點是開發強大的產品線，以推動可持續的盈利增長。我認為這是通過有機交付和嚴格的業務開發與研發生產力的持續提高相結合來實現的。這反映在我在這張幻燈片上顯示的 3 個研發優先事項以及我們戰略的實施中，該戰略重點關注 4 個治療領域，旨在利用我們對免疫系統的深刻理解和先進技術的使用。請下一張幻燈片。

It's important that we allocate our capital and resources effectively. I think about this in two perspectives. First, from a therapeutic area standpoint, our priority is to build on our strengths in leadership in infectious diseases, HIV, respiratory immunology and our emerging capabilities in oncology. This is by investing in both organic and targeted business development to deliver first or best-in-class innovation, balancing probabilities of success and sales potential. And we apply the same discipline and returns criteria for both approaches. In addition, we also see platform and data technology-enabled opportunities.

有效配置資本和資源非常重要。我從兩個角度思考這個問題。首先，從治療領域的角度來看，我們的首要任務是鞏固我們在傳染病、艾滋病毒、呼吸道免疫學方面的領導優勢以及我們在腫瘤學方面的新興能力。這是通過投資有機和有針對性的業務發展來提供一流或一流的創新，平衡成功的可能性和銷售潛力。我們對這兩種方法採用相同的紀律和回報標準。此外，我們還看到了平台和數據技術支持的機會。

Second, from the time perspective, I want to develop partner or acquire vaccines, specialty medicines and technologies with significant commercial potential that can meaningfully contribute to sales and profit growth in the latter part of this decade and beyond. Ultimately, I want a portfolio of R&D innovation that offers a good balance of risk and return and which can drive growth for GSK above and beyond the ambitious -- the ambition, sorry, Emma just talked about. Slide 11, please (sic) [Slide 12, please].

其次，從時間角度來看，我希望發展合作夥伴或收購具有巨大商業潛力的疫苗、特種藥物和技術，這些藥物和技術可以在本十年後半段及以後對銷售和利潤增長做出有意義的貢獻。最終，我想要一個能夠在風險和回報之間取得良好平衡的研發創新組合，並且能夠推動葛蘭素史克的增長，超越雄心勃勃的目標——對不起，艾瑪剛才談到的雄心壯志。請幻燈片 11（原文如此）[請幻燈片 12]。

Our pipeline today comprise of 68 assets in clinical development. Two-thirds of the assets within our development portfolio are focused on infectious diseases and HIV. In infectious diseases, we're focused on seasonal respiratory viruses, bacterial, fungal and chronic viral infections. Vaccines are front and center of this effort. Emma has already mentioned Arexvy and some of the innovation that is coming behind it.

目前，我們的產品線包括 68 項臨床開發資產。我們的開發組合中三分之二的資產專注於傳染病和艾滋病毒。在傳染病方面，我們專注於季節性呼吸道病毒、細菌、真菌和慢性病毒感染。疫苗是這項工作的前沿和核心。艾瑪已經提到了 Arexvy 及其背後的一些創新。

Our pentavalent meningococcal vaccine candidate recently met all primary endpoints in the Phase III trial and demonstrated immunological effectiveness against a 110 diverse MenB strains. These account for 95% of circulating strains in the U.S. Five serogroups are responsible for most meningococcal infections and no single approved vaccine can yet protect against all 5. If approved, MenABCWY would do so, offering a simplifying immunization change up and supporting increased vaccine uptake. This is important when you consider that only 30% of adults currently receive full protection from all 5 meningococcal serogroups. We're on track to submit the vaccine to regulators in 2024.

我們的五價腦膜炎球菌候選疫苗最近在 III 期試驗中達到了所有主要終點，並證明了針對 110 種不同 MenB 菌株的免疫學有效性。這些病毒占美國流行菌株的 95%。五种血清群導致大多數腦膜炎球菌感染，目前還沒有任何一種已批准的疫苗能夠預防所有 5 種病毒。如果獲得批准，MenABCWY 將這樣做，提供簡化的免疫接種變更並支持增加疫苗接種。當您考慮到目前只有 30% 的成年人獲得所有 5 種腦膜炎球菌血清群的全面保護時，這一點很重要。我們有望在 2024 年向監管機構提交疫苗。

Our novel 24-valent pneumococcal vaccine candidate acquired through the Affinivax transaction has also shown very positive immune response across serotypes. We continue to examine potential acceleration options for the 24- and 30-valent programs in infants and adults.

我們通過 Affinivax 交易獲得的新型 24 價肺炎球菌候選疫苗也顯示出跨血清型的非常積極的免疫反應。我們繼續研究針對嬰兒和成人的 24 價和 30 價計劃的潛在加速方案。

With CureVac, we're looking to disrupt the influenza market and deliver new multivalent combination vaccines using next-generation mRNA technology. Multivalent Phase I and II Zejula and Nucala trials are underway, and we expect data from these towards the end of this year and the start of 2024.

我們希望通過 CureVac 顛覆流感市場，並利用下一代 mRNA 技術提供新型多價組合疫苗。多價 I 期和 II 期 Zejula 和 Nucala 試驗正在進行中，我們預計將在今年年底和 2024 年初獲得這些數據。

In chronic viral infections, in addition to geographic expansion, we're looking at new growth opportunities, Shingrix. These include expanding the population who might benefit from protection to a young adult such as the recent Japanese approval to include adults aged 18 to 49. And we continue to review the potential need for a booster.

在慢性病毒感染方面，除了地域擴張之外，我們還在尋找新的增長機會，Shingrix。其中包括將可能從保護中受益的人群擴大到年輕人，例如日本最近批准將 18 歲至 49 歲的成年人包括在內。我們將繼續審查加強疫苗的潛在需求。

Additionally, a growing body of evidence suggests that shingles vaccination may reduce the risk of dementia. And we're leveraging our expertise in herpes varicella zoster virus to develop a promising injectable treatment for the control of herpes simplex virus reactivation. Our plan is to initiate proof-of-concept studies later this year.

此外，越來越多的證據表明，帶狀皰疹疫苗接種可以降低患癡呆症的風險。我們正在利用我們在水痘帶狀皰疹病毒方面的專業知識來開發一種有前景的注射療法，用於控制單純皰疹病毒的重新激活。我們的計劃是在今年晚些時候啟動概念驗證研究。

In anti-infectives, we've now assembled a promising portfolio of new medicines. Gepotidacin, which is stopped early for efficacy and is anticipated to launch next year, has the potential to be the first oral antibiotic to treat uncomplicated urinary tract infections in more than 20 years. Complementing this is tebipenem from Spero Therapeutics, which, if approved, will provide us with access to a late-stage antibiotic with the potential to treat complicated urinary tract infections.

在抗感染藥物方面，我們現在已經開發出了一系列有前景的新藥。 Gepotidacin 因療效而提前停用，預計明年上市，有潛力成為 20 多年來第一種治療單純性尿路感染的口服抗生素。 Spero Therapeutics 的替比培南是對此的補充，如果獲得批准，它將為我們提供一種後期抗生素，有可能治療複雜的尿路感染。

Brexafemme, a novel first-in-class medicine to treat fungal infection, acquired through an exclusive license agreement with SCYNEXIS completes this trio. Bepirovirsen is another potentially transformative treatment, which can help patients achieve a functional cure for chronic hepatitis B. We look forward to presenting data from our Phase IIb trial together later this year. This trial is designed to answer whether interferon is needed to improve the durability functional cure following the hep B treatment.

Brexafemme 是一種治療真菌感染的新型一流藥物，通過與 SCYNEXIS 簽訂獨家許可協議獲得，使這三重奏更加完整。 Bepirovirsen 是另一種潛在的變革性治療方法，可以幫助患者實現慢性乙型肝炎的功能性治愈。我們期待在今年晚些時候共同公佈 IIb 期試驗的數據。該試驗旨在回答乙型肝炎治療後是否需要干擾素來提高持久功能性治愈。

In HIV, we're entering an important period in our clinical development plans for potential ultra long-acting treatment and prevention options. These spearhead the transition we expect to deliver in the HIV portfolio over the next 5 years. We'll be setting out more detail on this in our third quarter investor event. In respiratory and immunology (inaudible) in late-stage development of our IL-5 medicine, depemokimab.

在艾滋病毒方面，我們正在進入潛在超長效治療和預防方案臨床開發計劃的重要時期。這些引領了我們預計在未來 5 年內在艾滋病毒產品組合中實現的轉變。我們將在第三季度的投資者活動中詳細介紹這一點。在呼吸和免疫學領域（聽不清），我們的 IL-5 藥物 depemokimab 處於後期開發階段。

The addition of camlipixant, a highly selective P2X3 antagonist, in the treatment of refractory cough also provides us with another asset in Phase III development. Luke and I expect to be sharing more with you on our plans and opportunities in respiratory before the year-end.

Camlipixant（一種高選擇性 P2X3 拮抗劑）在難治性咳嗽治療中的添加也為我們在 III 期開發中提供了另一項優勢。盧克和我希望在年底前與您分享更多關於我們在呼吸領域的計劃和機會。

In oncology, we are progressing the regulatory submission for momelotinib following U.S. FDA's recently extended review date to September. We're confident this new medicine will help tackle the significant and debilitating medical needs of myelofibrosis patients with anemia. Given the makeup of our current portfolio and capabilities, our approach in oncology is to prioritize the development of novel medicines to treat blood and women's cancers and to explore other potential breakthroughs in immuno-oncology. Jemperli, our highly effective PD-1 inhibitor, is central to this approach and exploration as a backbone treatment for using combination with other proven or promising therapies is in development. Next slide, please.

在腫瘤學方面，繼美國 FDA 最近將審查日期延長至 9 月之後，我們正在推進 momelotinib 的監管提交。我們相信這種新藥將有助於解決患有貧血的骨髓纖維化患者的重大且令人衰弱的醫療需求。考慮到我們目前的產品組合和能力的構成，我們在腫瘤學方面的方法是優先開發治療血液癌症和女性癌症的新藥，並探索免疫腫瘤學方面的其他潛在突破。 Jemperli 是我們的高效 PD-1 抑製劑，是這種方法和探索的核心，作為與其他已證實或有前景的療法聯合使用的骨幹療法正在開發中。請下一張幻燈片。

You'll see how many of the elements I've just touched on are expected to play out over the next 12 to 18 months. I believe these, together with targeted business development and a series of important Phase I, Phase II investment decisions, will lead to a significant progression in this pipeline in the short term.

您將看到我剛才談到的許多元素預計將在未來 12 到 18 個月內發揮作用。我相信這些，加上有針對性的業務發展和一系列重要的一期、二期投資決策，將在短期內導致該管道取得重大進展。

Slide 13, please. Alongside allocating resources to prioritize and accelerate clinical development, I want us to continue to improve overall R&D productivity. We've made progress. Success rates and cycle times are improving, but more needs to be done. For me, this really means 2 things. First, doubling down on leveraging our scientific capabilities with the use of new platform and data technologies. And second, developing our partnering and external sourcing capabilities.

請幻燈片 13。除了分配資源優先考慮和加速臨床開發之外，我希望我們繼續提高整體研發生產力。我們已經取得了進展。成功率和周期時間正在改善，但還需要做更多的工作。對我來說，這確實意味著兩件事。首先，通過使用新平台和數據技術，加倍利用我們的科學能力。其次，發展我們的合作和外部採購能力。

With AI and machine learning applications now rapidly maturing, access to proprietary data to feed models and generate novel insights is a key strategic differentiator. For example, we recently presented data results for bepirovirsen from the B-Clear Phase IIb trial. This deep, multimodal analysis helped us to develop a clear heterogeneity mapping for hepatitis B, stratifying individuals treated with bepirovirsen into 3 subtypes: a highly enriched response, a mixed response and a nonresponse subtype. Each defined by distinct clinical, urological and molecular trajectories and associated with a number of markers. These predictive models provide greater precision in existing markers and suggest potential enrichment strategies.

隨著人工智能和機器學習應用程序的迅速成熟，獲取專有數據來提供模型並生成新穎的見解是一個關鍵的戰略差異化因素。例如，我們最近公佈了 B-Clear IIb 期試驗中貝匹羅韋森的數據結果。這種深入的多模式分析幫助我們制定了清晰的乙型肝炎異質性圖譜，將接受貝匹羅韋森治療的個體分為 3 種亞型：高度豐富的反應、混合反應和無反應亞型。每個都由不同的臨床、泌尿學和分子軌跡定義，並與許多標記相關。這些預測模型為現有標記提供了更高的精確度，並提出了潛在的富集策略。

We're competitively placed in platform technologies and have laid strong foundations in data technologies. I want us to vigorously scale and build on these foundations to better derisk targets and rapidly test and progress high-quality first-in-class candidates, all with the aim of accelerating and improving success rates of our development programs.

我們在平台技術方面具有競爭力，並在數據技術方面奠定了堅實的基礎。我希望我們在這些基礎上大力擴展和發展，以更好地降低目標風險，并快速測試和培養高質量的一流候選人，所有這些都是為了加速和提高我們的發展計劃的成功率。

In summary, let me close by saying I'm pleased with the progress we've made so far this year and that we have clear plans in place to move forward at pace to deliver on our key objectives for R&D and support the overall growth ambitions at GSK.

總之，最後我要說的是，我對今年迄今為止所取得的進展感到滿意，並且我們制定了明確的計劃，將快速推進，以實現我們的研發關鍵目標並支持整體增長目標在葛蘭素史克。

I'll now hand it over to Luke on Slide 14.

我現在將幻燈片 14 上的內容交給 Luke。

Thanks, Tony. Please turn to the next slide. Pleased to say that quarter 2 was another quarter of continued strong commercial execution with growth across the business. All three of our product groups, Vaccines, Specialty and General Medicines, were up in the quarter with growing contributions across all three regions.

謝謝，托尼。請翻到下一張幻燈片。很高興地說，第二季度是又一個持續強勁的商業執行力和整個業務增長的季度。我們的所有三個產品組（疫苗、專科藥品和普通藥品）在本季度均有所增長，三個地區的貢獻都在增長。

Please turn to Slide 16. In quarter 2, we delivered GBP 7.1 billion of sales, up 11% versus last year, excluding pandemic solutions. In Vaccines, strong growth of 15%, excluding pandemic solutions, was supported by Shingrix, which was up 20%, and Bexsero, which was up 18%. Shingrix delivered another record quarter of sales, and it's the sixth consecutive quarter of growth.

請參閱幻燈片 16。第二季度，我們實現了 71 億英鎊的銷售額，比去年增長 11%（不包括流行病解決方案）。在疫苗領域，不包括大流行解決方案，Shingrix 增長了 20%，Bexsero 增長了 18%，實現了 15% 的強勁增長。 Shingrix 的季度銷售額再次創下歷史新高，這也是連續第六個季度實現增長。

In the U.S., we've now reached the most motivated consumers with about 32% penetration of eligible people receiving at least 1 dose. Moving forward in the U.S., we're resourcing for success by raising awareness about the importance of shingles prevention, especially among [teens] who are less motivated to get vaccines. We remain confident in the U.S. opportunity and believe we can reach flu-like penetration of around 60% to 60% -- 65% over time.

在美國，我們現在已經覆蓋了最積極的消費者，符合資格的人群中約 32% 的人接受了至少 1 劑疫苗。在美國，我們將通過提高人們對預防帶狀皰疹重要性的認識（尤其是那些不太願意接種疫苗的青少年）來獲取成功資源。我們對美國的機會仍然充滿信心，並相信隨著時間的推移，我們可以達到類似流感的滲透率達到 60% 至 60% 甚至 65% 左右。

Ex U.S. remains an important growth driver for Shingrix and represented 46% of the revenue in the quarter. Shingrix is now available in 33 countries with most -- with less than 3% penetration, indicating the potential for further expansion in these populations. We've got unconstrained supply of strong global demand, and we continue to retain high value with U.S. like pricing as we launch in [private pay settings] globally.

美國以外地區仍然是 Shingrix 的重要增長動力，佔本季度收入的 46%。 Shingrix 目前已在 33 個國家/地區上市，但普及率不到 3%，這表明這些人群有進一步擴大的潛力。我們擁有強勁的全球需求，不受限制的供應，並且當我們在全球範圍內推出[私人支付設置]時，我們將繼續保持與美國類似的定價的高價值。

In Specialty Medicines, including HIV, which Deborah will speak about shortly, we increased sales by 12%, excluding Xevudy, to GBP 2.5 billion. Our market-leading blockbuster specialty medicine, Benlysta and Nucala, continued to deliver double-digit growth.

在包括 HIV（Deborah 將很快談到的）在內的特種藥物方面，我們的銷售額（不包括 Xevudy）增長了 12%，達到 25 億英鎊。我們市場領先的重磅專科藥物 Benlysta 和 Nucala 繼續實現兩位數增長。

Benlysta was up 19% in the quarter with sustained growth across all major markets with further opportunity to drive increased penetration in both SLE and lupus nephritis with about 25% by penetration in the U.S. and other key markets. We're focused on life cycle management opportunities for Benlysta as we explore further indications including systemic sclerosis associated with interstitial lung disease, which will be important for patients as well as having a continued halo effect across the entire product.

Benlysta 本季度增長 19%，在所有主要市場持續增長，並有進一步機會推動 SLE 和狼瘡腎炎的滲透率提高，在美國和其他主要市場的滲透率約為 25%。我們專注於 Benlysta 的生命週期管理機會，因為我們探索了進一步的適應症，包括與間質性肺病相關的系統性硬化症，這對患者非常重要，並且在整個產品中具有持續的光環效應。

Nucala was up 15% in the quarter and remains the first and only biologic approved in 4 eosinophilic diseases with new indications driving growth and differentiation. The severe asthma continues to grow in the U.S. with opportunity for Nucala to drive buyer penetration with our clearly differentiated profile in EOS patients. And we look forward to having COPD data in 2024.

Nucala 在本季度上漲了 15%，仍然是第一個也是唯一一個在 4 種嗜酸性粒細胞疾病中獲得批准的生物製劑，其新適應症推動了增長和分化。嚴重哮喘在美國持續增長，Nucala 有機會通過我們在 EOS 患者中的明顯差異化概況來推動買家滲透。我們期待 2024 年獲得 COPD 數據。

In oncology, sales were down 3%, in line with expectations. However, Jemperli continues to be a growth contributor and we're excited about the potential for our PD-1 as the development program investigates the opportunity to help all patients with endometrial, ovarian and potentially other indications.

在腫瘤學領域，銷售額下降 3%，符合預期。然而，Jemperli 仍然是一個增長貢獻者，我們對 PD-1 的潛力感到興奮，因為開發計劃正在研究幫助所有患有子宮內膜、卵巢和潛在其他適應症的患者的機會。

Our General Medicines portfolio grew 8%, driven primarily by Trelegy, which is up 30% in the quarter. Trelegy continues to have a best-in-class profile across -- access versus competitors, and there's a leading share of voice with key specialty HCPs like pulmonologists and allergists.

我們的普通藥品組合增長了 8%，主要是由 Trelegy 推動，該季度增長了 30%。 Trelegy 與競爭對手相比，在訪問方面繼續擁有一流的形象，並且在肺科醫生和過敏科醫生等關鍵專業 HCP 中擁有領先的話語權。

Considering this strong Q2 and H1 performance, we now expect Specialty Medicines to grow high single digit and high General Medicines to grow at low single digit in the full year. We still expect Vaccines to grow around same.

考慮到第二季度和上半年的強勁表現，我們現在預計全年專科藥品將實現高個位數增長，普通藥品將實現低個位數增長。我們仍然預計疫苗的增長將大致相同。

Please turn to Slide 17. We're very excited about the upcoming launch of Arexvy. We believe Arexvy's profile and recommendation to support our market leadership and position with multibillion annual sales potential. Additionally, the CDC has now adopted last month's ACIP recommendation and is being communicated broadly to health care providers, an important step that sets clinical guidance and establishes the trigger for paid coverage. Launch is now underway as we speak, and we have a clear understanding of what is required for successful commercial execution.

請參閱幻燈片 17。我們對即將推出的 Arexvy 感到非常興奮。我們相信 Arexvy 的簡介和推薦將支持我們的市場領導地位和具有數十億年銷售潛力的地位。此外，疾病預防控制中心現已採納上個月的 ACIP 建議，並正在向醫療保健提供者廣泛傳達，這是製定臨床指導並確定付費保險觸發因素的重要一步。就在我們發言時，啟動工作正在進行中，我們清楚地了解成功商業執行所需的條件。

We're also building on our relationship with retailers, given our expertise in the older adult population for Shingrix, and we're playing to our strength using our deep respiratory expertise and our experience (inaudible). We've now shipped doses to distribution centers, and we look forward to the impact that the support and medicine will help prevent the severe consequences of RSV in the U.S. and globally as we also prepare to launch this season across Europe.

鑑於我們在 Shingrix 老年人口方面的專業知識，我們還在建立與零售商的關係，並且我們正在利用我們的深呼吸專業知識和經驗（聽不清）發揮我們的優勢。我們現在已將劑量運送到配送中心，我們期待支持和藥品將有助於防止 RSV 在美國和全球造成的嚴重後果，同時我們還準備在整個歐洲推出本季節。

With that, now let me hand over to Deborah on Slide 18.

現在，我將幻燈片 18 的內容移交給 Deborah。

Thanks, Luke. Our HIV business delivered sales of GBP 1.6 billion in the second quarter of 2023, growing 12%. This growth was primarily driven by demand, which contributed 8 percentage points of growth and U.S. pricing favorability, which contributed a further 2 percentage points of growth. Our performance benefited from strong patient demand for our oral 2-drug regimens and long-acting injectable medicines, which now constitute more than 40 -- more than 50% of our total portfolio. This demand helped grow our global market share by 2 percentage points versus last year. The inventory build that we saw in the U.S. at the end of last year have now materially burned, and we don't anticipate any further significant burn this year.

謝謝，盧克。我們的 HIV 業務在 2023 年第二季度實現銷售額 16 億英鎊，增長 12%。這一增長主要是由需求推動的，需求貢獻了 8 個百分點的增長，而美國的定價優惠則進一步貢獻了 2 個百分點的增長。我們的業績得益於患者對我們的口服 2 種藥物治療方案和長效注射藥物的強勁需求，這些藥物目前占我們總產品組合的 40 多種（50% 以上）。這一需求幫助我們的全球市場份額比去年增長了 2 個百分點。我們去年年底在美國看到的庫存增加現已大幅消耗，我們預計今年不會出現進一步的大幅消耗。

Dovato delivered GBP 430 million in the quarter. Market performance reflects HCP belief in Dovato, which is now our #1 selling HIV medicine. We were also pleased that dolutegravir received U.S. FDA pediatric exclusivity in the quarter, which extends the dolutegravir loss of exclusivity in the U.S. by a further 6 months to April 2029. And as a reminder, Europe is -- to April 2028. And as a reminder, Europe is 2029. We aim to further consolidate our leadership in pediatric HIV by following a similar approach with our foundational medicine, cabotegravir.

Dovato 本季度交付了 4.3 億英鎊。市場表現反映了 HCP 對 Dovato 的信心，Dovato 目前是我們銷量排名第一的艾滋病藥物。我們還很高興多替拉韋在本季度獲得了美國 FDA 兒科獨占權，這將多替拉韋在美國的獨占權喪失時間再延長 6 個月至 2029 年 4 月。提醒一下，歐洲將延長至 2028 年 4 月。提醒一下，歐洲是 2029 年。我們的目標是通過對我們的基礎藥物 cabotegravir 採取類似的方法，進一步鞏固我們在兒科艾滋病毒領域的領導地位。

Turning to Cabenuva. Sales for the quarter were GBP 176 million, reflecting strong HCP demand with high levels of market access and reimbursements across the U.S. and Europe. Growth is being driven by positive sentiment towards the SOLAR data presented at CROI earlier in the year and strong commercial execution. It is particularly pleasing to see that more than 70% of Cabenuva sales are originating from competitor regimens.

轉向卡本努瓦。該季度銷售額為 1.76 億英鎊，反映出美國和歐洲市場准入和報銷水平較高的 HCP 需求強勁。今年早些時候在 CROI 上發布的 SOLAR 數據的積極情緒以及強勁的商業執行力推動了增長。特別令人高興的是，超過 70% 的 Cabenuva 銷售額來自競爭對手的療法。

Moving on to prevention. Sales of Apretude, the world's first long-acting injectable for the prevention of HIV, delivered GBP 36 million in the quarter. And we're pleased by the growing momentum across the U.S. We were delighted that early this week, the European Medicines Agency granted positive opinion for this medicine. With more than 100,000 new infections every year across the continent, we very much look forward to the approval of Apretude, which has the potential to significantly reduce the transmission of HIV in Europe.

繼續預防。全球首個用於預防艾滋病毒的長效注射劑 Apretude 本季度銷售額達 3600 萬英鎊。我們對美國各地不斷增長的勢頭感到高興。我們很高興本周初歐洲藥品管理局對該藥物給予了積極的評價。整個歐洲大陸每年新增感染病例超過10萬例，我們非常期待Apretude獲得批准，它有可能顯著減少歐洲艾滋病毒的傳播。

We're encouraged by the progress of our pipeline, which is focused on innovative long-acting regimens. We have 3 clear target medicine profiles to provide the world's first self-administered long-acting regimen for treatment and to provide ultra long-acting regimens with treatment and prevention with dosing intervals of 3 months or longer. I'm pleased to confirm that next month, we shall begin our Phase IIb study of cabotegravir in combination with our broadly neutralizing antibody, N6LS, which offers the potential for ultra long-acting dosing. We are very excited about the potential of these medicine profiles, but we'll be ready to (inaudible) in 2024.

我們對我們的產品線取得的進展感到鼓舞，該產品線專注於創新的長效治療方案。我們有3個明確的靶點藥物概況，提供世界上第一個自行給藥的長效治療方案，並提供治療和預防相結合的超長效方案，給藥間隔為3個月或更長。我很高興地確認，下個月，我們將開始對 cabotegravir 與我們的廣泛中和抗體 N6LS 相結合進行 IIb 期研究，N6LS 提供超長效給藥的潛力。我們對這些藥物概況的潛力感到非常興奮，但我們將在 2024 年做好準備（聽不清）。

We remain very confident in our ambition to achieve a 5-year mid single-digit sales CAGR to 2026. And our strong Q2 performance means we are in a position to raise our outlook for 2023 from mid-single digit to a high single-digit growth rate.

我們對到 2026 年實現 5 年中個位數銷售複合年增長率的雄心仍然充滿信心。第二季度的強勁表現意味著我們有能力將 2023 年的前景從中個位數提高到高個位數增長率。

And with that, I will hand to Julie on Slide 19.

接下來，我將把幻燈片 19 上的內容交給 Julie。

Good afternoon, everyone. I am delighted to be here at my first set of results as the CFO of GSK. The biopharma industry is incredibly special to me. It's where I spent most of my career, and it is a sector that can create enormous value for patients and shareholders. GSK is a company that I've long admired and it has a clear purpose to positively impact the health of billions over the next decade. And I'm really pleased to be part of the team that is going to deliver this.

大家下午好。我很高興來到這裡，見證我作為葛蘭素史克首席財務官的第一組業績。生物製藥行業對我來說非常特別。這是我職業生涯大部分時間度過的地方，也是一個可以為患者和股東創造巨大價值的部門。葛蘭素史克是一家我長期以來一直欽佩的公司，它有一個明確的目標，即在未來十年對數十億人的健康產生積極影響。我真的很高興成為實現這一目標的團隊的一員。

As this is the first time speaking to you and before we cover the financials, I wanted to take the opportunity to highlight 3 areas of focus that are going to be important to me as CFO. So first disciplined capital allocation with 2 clear priorities: to invest for growth and to deliver improved returns to shareholders. Second, partnering with Tony to enhance returns on investment and improve R&D productivity with a strong focus on resource optimization and efficient funding. And third, identifying sources of business efficiency to fund investments and deliver a competitive P&L.

由於這是第一次與您交談，在我們討論財務數據之前，我想藉此機會強調 3 個重點領域，這對我作為首席財務官來說非常重要。因此，首先要嚴格控制資本配置，有兩個明確的優先事項：投資促進增長和提高股東回報。其次，與托尼合作，重點關注資源優化和高效融資，提高投資回報並提高研發生產力。第三，確定業務效率的來源，為投資提供資金並提供有競爭力的損益。

So first, turning to the next slide in capital allocation. Our first priority is investment in the business, driven towards development of the pipeline through both organic and targeted business development. We will also invest to support new product launches. My intention here is to be laser-focused on prioritizing and accelerating investments in those assets and technologies which will help us to deliver growth.

首先，轉向下一張資本配置幻燈片。我們的首要任務是對業務進行投資，通過有機和有針對性的業務發展來推動管道的發展。我們還將投資支持新產品的發布。我的目的是集中精力優先考慮並加速對這些資產和技術的投資，這將有助於我們實現增長。

I intend to achieve this through an increased focus on ROI for organic and BD-related investments. And this will include an assessment of the market opportunity, first-in-class potential and best-in-class potential (inaudible) sales, probability of success and expected financial returns. Through returns to shareholders, our primary mechanisms of cash distributions will remain through the delivery of aggressive dividend.

我打算通過更加關注有機投資和業務拓展相關投資的投資回報率來實現這一目標。這將包括對市場機會、一流潛力和一流潛力（​​聽不清）銷售、成功概率和預期財務回報的評估。通過向股東回報，我們的主要現金分配機制將繼續通過提供激進的股息。

And last year, the payout ratio of 40% to 60% over the cycle was established. And we expect to maintain dividends within this range as earnings increase over time. For completeness, in the event of a surplus, excess cash would be returned to shareholders using the most efficient mechanism available. However, we do not expect excess cash in the medium term, given our priority is to invest in growth.

去年，整個週期的派息率為40%至60%。隨著收益隨著時間的推移而增加，我們預計股息將維持在這個範圍內。為了完整起見，如果出現盈餘，多餘的現金將使用最有效的機制返還給股東。然而，鑑於我們的首要任務是投資於增長，因此我們預計中期不會有多餘的現金。

And finally, and very importantly, we remain committed to maintaining a balance sheet with a strong investment-grade credit rating. Taken together, I believe this represents a sensible capital allocation framework for GSK consistent with our strategic priorities and supportive of our commitments to deliver profitable growth through this decade.

最後，也是非常重要的一點，我們仍然致力於維持具有強大投資級信用評級的資產負債表。總而言之，我相信這代表了葛蘭素史克的一個明智的資本配置框架，符合我們的戰略重點，並支持我們在這十年實現盈利增長的承諾。

Turning now to the quarter. As I cover the financials, references to growth are at constant exchange rates, unless otherwise stated. And I will focus my comments on adjusted results. So starting with the income statement. Sales increased 11%, excluding COVID solutions, and were up 4% overall, reflecting the strong delivery that Luke and Deborah have covered. Operating leverage, primarily in COGS, drove adjusted operating profit growth of 11% with the margin increasing to 30.2%. Excluding COVID solutions, adjusted operating profit grew 12%.

現在轉向本季度。在我介紹財務數據時，除非另有說明，否則所提到的增長都是按固定匯率計算的。我的評論將集中在調整後的結果上。那麼從損益表開始。銷售額增長了 11%（不包括新冠肺炎解決方案），總體增長了 4%，反映出 Luke 和 Deborah 的強勁交付。運營槓桿（主要是銷貨成本）推動調整後運營利潤增長 11%，利潤率增至 30.2%。不包括新冠疫情解決方案，調整後營業利潤增長 12%。

Turning to the reported results. The growth in total profit was driven by strong operating performance and favorable contingent consideration liability remeasurements.

轉向報告的結果。總利潤的增長得益於強勁的經營業績和有利的或有對價負債重新計量。

Please turn to Slide 22, and turning to margin dynamics. As mentioned, the adjusted operating margin was 30.2%, a 200 basis point increase versus the prior year at constant rates. Excluding the impact of COVID solutions, the margin increased 20 basis points. Cost of goods sold decreased, primarily reflecting reduced sales of low-margin Xevudy in Q2, which resulted in a gross profit increase of 11%. Excluding COVID solutions, COGS increased in line with sales, with a neutral gross margin impact, with favorable mix and efficiencies offset by higher freight and energy costs.

請轉到幻燈片 22，然後轉到利潤動態。如前所述，調整後營業利潤率為 30.2%，按固定利率計算，與上一年相比增加了 200 個基點。排除新冠疫情解決方案的影響，利潤率增加了 20 個基點。銷售成本下降，主要是由於第二季度低利潤的 Xevudy 銷量減少，導致毛利潤增長 11%。不包括新冠疫情解決方案，銷貨成本與銷售額同步增長，毛利率影響中性，有利的組合和效率被較高的貨運和能源成本所抵消。

SG&A reflects investment behind product launches such as Shingrix, geographic expansion, HIV and preparations for Arexvy's imminent launch. We expect the SG&A growth to reduce in the fourth quarter as investment levels stabilize and to be broadly in line with sales growth for the full year.

SG&A 反映了 Shingrix 等產品發布背後的投資、地域擴張、HIV 以及為 Arexvy 即將推出的準備工作。我們預計，隨著投資水平穩定，第四季度銷售管理費用增長將減少，並與全年銷售增長基本一致。

In R&D, there was increased investment across a range of early and late-stage programs, including a number that Deborah and Tony discussed earlier. Our royalties benefited from Gardasil, Biktarvy and Kesimpta. And there was a 70 basis point adverse move from foreign exchange. And next slide, please.

在研發方面，一系列早期和後期項目的投資有所增加，其中包括黛博拉和托尼之前討論過的一些項目。我們的特許權使用費受益於 Gardasil、Biktarvy 和 Kesimpta。外匯匯率出現了 70 個基點的不利走勢。請下一張幻燈片。

So earnings per share benefited from lower net finance expense and noncontrolling interests and now turning to the adjusted compared with our total results. Next slide, please.

因此，每股收益受益於較低的淨財務費用和非控股權益，現在轉向與我們的總業績相比調整後的收益。請下一張幻燈片。

So overall, total and adjusted operating profit were similar in the second quarter at GBP 2.1 billion and GBP 2.2 billion, respectively. In addition to CCL remeasurements, the main other adjusting items of note were within divestments, significant legal and other. And this reflected dividend and distribution income received, including Haleon dividends and the fair value movements of Haleon shares, which was partly offset by significant legal charges. Legal fees primarily reflected increased charges to Zantac, of which the vast majority relate to prospective legal costs for the defense. Next slide, please.

因此，總體而言，第二季度的總營業利潤和調整後營業利潤相似，分別為 21 億英鎊和 22 億英鎊。除了 CCL 重新計量外，其他主要調整項目還包括撤資、重大法律及其他事項。這反映了收到的股息和分配收入，包括 Haleon 股息和 Haleon 股票的公允價值變動，但部分被巨額法律費用所抵消。法律費用主要反映了 Zantac 費用的增加，其中絕大多數與辯護的預期法律費用有關。請下一張幻燈片。

Cash generated from operations was GBP 1.9 billion in the first half, GBP 2 billion lower than the prior year. And the key drivers are similar to those covered at Q1 and relate to the Gilead settlement and timing of Xevudy collections received last year together with pension payments and increased working capital this year. There was no change to our expectation that 2023 cash generated from operations will be slightly lower than 2022. And we remain committed to our 2026 projection of more than GBP 10 billion.

上半年經營產生的現金為19億英鎊，比上年減少20億英鎊。主要驅動因素與第一季度所涵蓋的類似，與吉利德和解和去年收到的 Xevudy 收款時間以及今年的養老金支付和增加的營運資金有關。我們的預期沒有變化，即 2023 年運營產生的現金將略低於 2022 年。我們仍然致力於 2026 年超過 100 億英鎊的預測。

Net debt increased to GBP 18.2 billion, reflecting the free cash outflow and net acquisition cost of BELLUS Healthcare, partly offset by disposal of investments, including the monetization of part of our equity holding in Haleon.

淨債務增加至 182 億英鎊，反映了 BELLUS Healthcare 的自由現金流出和淨收購成本，部分被投資處置（包括我們持有的 Haleon 部分股權貨幣化）所抵消。

And turning now to guidance on Slide 26. We have delivered a very strong first half. And as Emma mentioned, we are upgrading our guidance for the year. As a reminder, all of this guidance excludes the impact of COVID-19 solutions. We now expect sales to increase between 8% and 10%, up 2 percentage points. We expect adjusted operating profit to increase between 11% and 13%, and adjusted earnings per share to increase between 14% and 17%.

現在轉向幻燈片 26 的指導。我們的上半場表現非常出色。正如艾瑪提到的，我們正在升級今年的指導。提醒一下，所有這些指南均排除了 COVID-19 解決方案的影響。我們現在預計銷售額將增長 8% 至 10%，即提高 2 個百分點。我們預計調整後營業利潤將增長 11% 至 13%，調整後每股收益將增長 14% 至 17%。

Within sales, we are maintaining our full year Vaccines expectation of a mid-teens percentage growth and are upgrading our expectations for Specialty and Gen Med. We now have anticipated Specialty Medicines and HIV within it to grow a high single-digit percent and for Gen Med to grow a low single-digit percent.

在銷售方面，我們維持全年疫苗增長百分之十左右的預期，並上調對特種疫苗和通用藥物的預期。我們現在預計其中的特種藥物和艾滋病毒將實現高個位數百分比增長，而 Gen Med 將實現低個位數百分比增長。

And turning to phasing, and firstly, on sales. We expect that the second half growth will be below the first half [in full] by the comparatives. We would also expect sales growth to be slightly higher in Q3 relative to Q4. And secondly, on operating profit, we expect that the second half growth will be stronger than the first with a broadly similar growth rate in each quarter, primarily reflecting SG&A growth expectations as mentioned earlier. Next slide, please.

轉向分階段，首先是銷售。我們預計下半年的增長將低於上半年的比較。我們還預計第三季度的銷售增長將略高於第四季度。其次，就營業利潤而言，我們預計下半年的增長將強於上半年，每個季度的增長率大致相似，這主要反映了前面提到的 SG&A 增長預期。請下一張幻燈片。

In summary, our business is performing well and with strong momentum. I look forward to connecting with you and updating you on our progress and continued delivery towards our '26 and '31 goals in the quarters to come. With that in mind, Slide 27, shares how we plan to keep you informed in four key areas: execution, portfolio, capital allocation and investor events.

綜上所述，我們的業務表現良好，勢頭強勁。我期待與您聯繫，並向您介紹我們在未來幾個季度的進展以及繼續實現我們的 '26 和 '31 目標的情況。考慮到這一點，幻燈片 27 分享了我們計劃如何讓您了解四個關鍵領域的情況：執行、投資組合、資本配置和投資者活動。

Execution shares our major earnings reviews. The portfolio component builds on the R&D catalysts shared in Tony's presentation. Capital allocation has been clarified further today. And the Investor Relations program shows how we plan to provide you with the building blocks underpinning our pipeline and the opportunity to meet the management to two more events this year. The first will focus on HIV in September, followed by respiratory and immunology in the fourth quarter. We will also continue to run a comprehensive program of meetings, participation in investor conferences and updates from key medical events.

執行部分分享了我們的主要盈利回顧。該投資組合部分建立在托尼演講中分享的研發催化劑的基礎上。今天，資本配置得到了進一步明確。投資者關係計劃展示了我們計劃如何為您提供支撐我們管道的基礎，以及今年另外兩場活動與管理層會面的機會。第一個將在 9 月份重點關注艾滋病毒，其次是第四季度的呼吸和免疫學。我們還將繼續開展全面的會議計劃、參加投資者會議以及發布重要醫療活動的最新信息。

And thank you. And with that, I will hand back to Emma.

謝謝你。說到這裡，我將把事情交還給艾瑪。

Thanks, Julie. It's so great to have you with us. Turning to Slide 29, please. We continue to build trust by delivering in the 6 key areas we prioritized for ESG performance. This quarter, we made progress on several fronts, but I want to highlight one in particular. Although more than 2.5 billion people will reach this decade, the majority will be through our infectious disease portfolio of vaccines, antibiotics, antivirals and global health for us. And so we were delighted to see new third-party fund announced with regard to M72, a tuberculosis vaccine candidate, discovered and developed by GSK into Phase III development.

謝謝，朱莉。很高興有你和我們在一起。請轉到幻燈片 29。我們通過在 ESG 績效優先考慮的 6 個關鍵領域提供服務來繼續建立信任。本季度，我們在幾個方面取得了進展，但我想特別強調一個。儘管超過 25 億人將在這個十年內度過難關，但大多數人將通過我們的疫苗、抗生素、抗病毒藥物和全球健康等傳染病產品組合來應對。因此，我們很高興看到新的第三方基金宣布與葛蘭素史克發現並開發進入 III 期開發的 M72（一種結核病候選疫苗）相關。

This could potentially (inaudible) the first new vaccine to help prevent pulmonary TB in more than 100 years. It is a true testament to GSK's vaccine scientists and our ability to partner with others to develop innovative global health assets in an economically viable and sustainable way, with more than 10 million people falling ill and more than 1.5 million people dying from TB every year and increasing evidence of drug resistance. Successful development of this vaccine could have a profound impact on (inaudible). Final slide, please.

這可能是（聽不清）一百多年來第一種有助於預防肺結核的新疫苗。它真實地證明了葛蘭素史克的疫苗科學家以及我們與他人合作以經濟上可行和可持續的方式開發創新的全球衛生資產的能力，每年有超過 1000 萬人患病，超過 150 萬人死於結核病，越來越多的證據表明耐藥性。這種疫苗的成功開發可能會產生深遠的影響（聽不清）。最後一張幻燈片，請。

So in summary, we are seeing strong momentum in our performance with continued delivery of competitive sales and profit growth. We remain very focused on continuing to progress our pipeline through organic development and targeted complementary business development. And our progress is providing us with high confidence to deliver our outlooks and ambitions to shareholders through the decade.

總而言之，我們看到了業績的強勁勢頭，持續提供有競爭力的銷售和利潤增長。我們仍然非常專注於通過有機發展和有針對性的互補業務發展來繼續推進我們的產品線。我們的進步使我們充滿信心地在十年內向股東傳達我們的前景和抱負。

And with that, let's move to the Q&A with the team.

接下來，讓我們開始與團隊進行問答。

Thanks, Emma. (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from James Gordon at JPMorgan.

謝謝，艾瑪。 （操作員說明）我們將回答摩根大通的詹姆斯·戈登提出的第一個問題。

James Gordon, JPMorgan. I'll keep to one. My question is about Shingrix in the U.S. So I think the sales declined 10% this quarter, although maybe so flattish when we adjust for stocking. But I saw you've refined the Shingrix global guidance, so it's now high teens this year. I think it was double digit before. And Luke made some comments about having reached the most motivated patients in the U.S. and further penetration increases, but that sounds like maybe that's going to be tougher in the less motivated patients.

詹姆斯·戈登，摩根大通。我會保留一個。我的問題是關於美國的 Shingrix。所以我認為本季度的銷售額下降了 10%，儘管當我們調整庫存時可能會很平淡。但我看到你們已經完善了 Shingrix 全球指導方針，所以今年的指導方針現在已經達到了十幾歲。我認為之前是兩位數。盧克對已經接觸到美國最積極的患者並進一步提高滲透率發表了一些評論，但這聽起來可能對於積極性較低的患者來說會更加困難。

So the question is, where are we on Shingrix and U.S. growth specifically? Could we now be running out of road for the U.S. growth and it's going to be more ex U.S. growth, but the U.S. is maybe sort of flat this year and then could even decline? Or is Q2 a bit of a blip in the stocking and other one-off factors and there's still plenty of U.S. growth to come?

所以問題是，Shingrix 和美國的增長具體處於什麼位置？我們現在是否已經對美國經濟增長無路可走，而且美國經濟增長將更多，但美國今年可能會持平，然後甚至可能下降？或者說第二季度的庫存和其他一次性因素只是暫時的，而美國仍有大量增長？

Obviously, we're still very ambitious. The scale and reach of Shingrix, Luke, do you want to (inaudible)?

顯然，我們仍然雄心勃勃。 Shingrix 的規模和影響範圍，盧克，您想要嗎（聽不清）？

Sure, James. I suspect he's probably not the only person with that question, so I'll take a little bit longer to cover all those points.

當然，詹姆斯。我懷疑他可能不是唯一有這個問題的人，所以我會花更長的時間來討論所有這些要點。

So the short answer is not yet. I mean we've covered in past calls, there will be a point which we're entering now, but will need to work harder as we've got this -- what's essentially a long arithmetic growth curve. But yes, I'll just -- I'll take it a little bit to outline the dynamics because it's very much a non-retail effect right now and, as you said, with some stock movements.

所以簡短的回答是還沒有。我的意思是，我們在過去的電話會議中已經介紹過，現在我們將進入一個點，但需要更加努力，因為我們已經得到了這個——本質上是一條很長的算術增長曲線。但是，是的，我會稍微概述一下動態，因為它現在很大程度上是一種非零售效應，而且正如你所說，還有一些股票走勢。

So for retail first, we actually saw an 8% growth or up 8% versus last year, and that was pretty much driven by 65-year-old individuals coming in following the removal of co-pay linked to the IRA. And it's interesting, in Q4 and Q1, we added about 2% to the total vaccination around each time. So we now have a penetration of around 32% on the latest data we have (inaudible). If you then sort of subtract that, that's about 80 million more people to go, if we were to get to 100%. And we add around 4 million people who turn 50 each year.

因此，首先就零售業而言，我們實際上看到了 8% 的增長，即與去年相比增長了 8%，這很大程度上是由於取消與 IRA 相關的共付額後 65 歲的個人進入的。有趣的是，在第四季度和第一季度，我們每次都將疫苗接種總量增加了大約 2%。因此，根據我們掌握的最新數據，我們現在的滲透率約為 32%（聽不清）。如果你減去這個數字，如果我們要達到 100%，那麼大約還會有 8000 萬人離開。每年 50 歲以上的人口數量會增加約 400 萬人。

The other important element on stocking is we actually changed the rules in terms of how much stock wholesalers could hold. So we have two categories: Category A, Category B. Historically, Shingrix has been classified in Category B, which just gave wholesalers more room and more flexibility in terms of the volumes that they hold. We've now tightened that up. We are trying to remove some of this volatility.

關於庫存的另一個重要因素是我們實際上改變了批發商可以持有多少庫存的規則。所以我們有兩個類別：A 類、B 類。從歷史上看，Shingrix 一直被歸類為 B 類，這只是為批發商在持有的數量方面提供了更多的空間和更大的靈活性。我們現在已經加強了這一點。我們正在努力消除一些波動性。

You remember last year, we had stock movements which were 1.3 and 1.8 and down to 0.9. So far this year, we're pretty tight in the range of 0.6 to 0.7. Expect it will go up a little bit at the end of Q3 in the flu season, but we're trying to keep a tighter call on that. So that hasn't affected well.

你還記得去年，我們的股票波動分別為 1.3 和 1.8，最後降至 0.9。今年到目前為止，我們的範圍非常狹窄，在 0.6 到 0.7 之間。預計流感季節第三季度末該數字會略有上升，但我們正在努力對此保持更嚴格的控制。所以這並沒有產生很好的影響。

Now if we go to the non-retail, which is the important component in the U.S., and this is the key shift. So historically, non-retail has been around 45%, 50% of the business. But in Q1, that went down to 34%. And in Q2, it's around 31%. And it's very specific. We have a very small number of key customers who are now approaching 60% of the target population and their vaccination. Now we have about 197 other key customers that we can work for. So I guess the glass half full look at this is that we can get to the types of penetration that we're targeting in these centers, and that's an opportunity with the other one.

現在，如果我們轉向非零售業，這是美國的重要組成部分，這是關鍵的轉變。從歷史上看，非零售業務約佔業務的 45%、50%。但在第一季度，這一比例下降至 34%。而在第二季度，這一比例約為 31%。而且非常具體。我們有極少數的關鍵客戶，他們現在已經接近目標人群的 60% 以及他們的疫苗接種率。現在我們還有大約 197 個其他重要客戶可供我們服務。因此，我想我們可以對這些中心的目標滲透類型進行半全面的審視，這對另一個中心來說是一個機會。

So you're right, we do need to work harder to get to those less motivated patients, but we've always known that's coming and we've got plans to do that. If we look outside of the U.S., just to conclude, we try to explain historically that we (inaudible) U.S., which is sort of down on that curve. We're now starting in Europe. And we're very early days in markets like Canada -- China. And as we said, we were about 3% penetration if you exclude the U.S. and Germany, which are ahead of the curve within the penetration. So we're in good shape overall. And I think we look forward to updating you on Q3.

所以你是對的，我們確實需要更加努力地幫助那些缺乏積極性的患者，但我們一直都知道這種情況即將到來，並且我們已經制定了計劃來做到這一點。如果我們看看美國以外的地區，只是為了得出結論，我們試圖從歷史上解釋我們（聽不清）美國，它在這條曲線上處於較低的位置。我們現在從歐洲開始。我們在加拿大和中國等市場還處於早期階段。正如我們所說，如果排除美國和德國，我們的滲透率約為 3%，這兩個國家的滲透率處於領先地位。所以我們總體狀況良好。我想我們期待為您提供第三季度的最新情況。

Thanks, Luke. And the other point to emphasize is, as Luke referred to, the cost of reaching deeper into the U.S. obviously goes up. And actually, in the other markets we're in because we don't have advertising and because price has been successfully globalized and that it remains a very appealing business in other lines of immunizations, which, of course, we're now adding to the RSV (inaudible).

謝謝，盧克。另一點需要強調的是，正如盧克所說，深入美國的成本顯然會上升。事實上，在我們所處的其他市場，因為我們沒有廣告，而且價格已經成功全球化，而且它在其他免疫領域仍然是一個非常有吸引力的業務，當然，我們現在正在增加RSV（聽不清）。

Next question is from Jo Walton at Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的喬·沃爾頓。

Yes. I would like to ask a question about IRA and two aspects of that. I wonder if you have a view about increased volume in anything other than vaccines given the change in patient co-pay going down? And also if you could talk about penny pricing and how we should think about that. You have some old products, which will have accumulated very large rebates, which, in theory, would become a problem next year. We've seen the (inaudible) companies talk about it. How are you going to handle that in respiratory?

是的。我想問一個關於 IRA 及其兩個方面的問題。我想知道，鑑於患者自付額的變化，您是否對疫苗以外的其他產品的銷量增加有何看法？另外，您是否可以談談便士定價以及我們應該如何考慮這一點。你有一些老產品，它們會積累非常大的回扣，理論上這會成為明年的問題。我們已經看到（聽不清）公司談論這個問題。您將如何處理呼吸道疾病？

Well, I'll come to later on that, but you're absolutely right. There are some really good things about the IRA that we're very supportive of the co-pays and [moving] in vaccines is important for our portfolio. There are some other things alongside others in the sector we're concerned about in terms of unintended consequences. And two parts of our portfolio, HIV will be more like in '25. And then in Gen Meds from next year there is some impact, four of which is explicitly absorbed in our guidance and in our outlooks. So you'll see some volatility there. But Luke, I don't know whether you'd like to comment more on the specifics in established respiratory.

好吧，我稍後會談到這一點，但你是絕對正確的。 IRA 有一些非常好的方面，我們非常支持共同支付，並且疫苗的發展對我們的投資組合很重要。在該行業中，我們還擔心其他一些事情會帶來意想不到的後果。我們的投資組合中的兩個部分，艾滋病毒將更像是 25 年的情況。從明年開始，Gen Meds 會產生一些影響，其中四個影響被明確納入我們的指導和展望中。所以你會看到一些波動。但是盧克，我不知道你是否願意對已建立的呼吸系統的具體細節發表更多評論。

Sure. I mean, Joe, you may mind in terms of some effects in terms of compliance, I mean we see patients drop out of products like Trelegy in terms of that historical coverage gap. So that should help with volume. As Emma said, there's other aspects to the program that we're less than adult and we need to see how that affects. In terms of MCAP, we've got a very clear listed products exactly, as you said, that had pretty intensive discounting and historical price increases, which have been ahead of inflation, and there has been (inaudible) effect. I mean the total exposure, this is just total revenue, not impact when we really stressed this, about USD 700 million. So that's [flowed on] HFA, flowed on DISKUS, ADVAIR HFA, ADVAIR DISKUS, SEREVENT, and LAMICTAL and the biggest of those is LAMICTAL

當然。我的意思是，喬，您可能會介意依從性方面的一些影響，我的意思是，我們看到患者因歷史覆蓋範圍差距而放棄像 Trelegy 這樣的產品。所以這應該有助於增加音量。正如艾瑪所說，該計劃還有其他方面我們還不夠成熟，我們需要看看這會產生什麼影響。就 MCAP 而言，我們有一個非常明確的上市產品，正如您所說，它們有相當密集的折扣和歷史價格上漲，這些產品已經領先於通貨膨脹，並且已經產生了（聽不清）效果。我的意思是總風險，這只是總收入，而不是我們真正強調這一點時的影響，大約 7 億美元。這就是[流向] HFA，流向 DISKUS、ADVAIR HFA、ADVAIR DISKUS、SEREVENT 和 LAMICTAL，其中最大的是 LAMICTAL

Now we've had a lot of warning, this is coming, and we're working in the U.S. has done a great job in terms of developing authorized generics, partnerships. We have options to divest selected products and where we can't bring an authorized generic or we are unable to divest of course, we can (inaudible) to adjust that. So that's a collection of the process that we're doing to protect the bulk of that business.

現在我們已經收到很多警告，這即將到來，我們在美國的工作在開發授權仿製藥、合作夥伴關係方面做得很好。我們可以選擇剝離選定的產品，如果我們無法提供授權仿製藥或我們無法剝離，當然，我們可以（聽不清）進行調整。這是我們為保護大部分業務而採取的流程的集合。

So the next question is from James Quigley at Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·奎格利。

So maybe a question for Julie (inaudible) one of her comments. So you mentioned sort of building a competitive P&L. So what is your definition of a competitive P&L? And what sort of focus -- what will be the focus areas to generate that competitiveness in terms of margin ranges or growth potential? And then the -- are there any sort of early areas that could drive efficiencies or levers that you can use to get you into these competitive ranges?

所以也許有一個問題要問朱莉（聽不清）她的評論之一。所以你提到了建立有競爭力的損益表。那麼您對競爭性損益的定義是什麼？什麼樣的關注點——在利潤範圍或增長潛力方面產生競爭力的重點領域是什麼？然後，是否有任何類型的早期領域可以提高效率或可以用來讓您進入這些競爭範圍的槓桿？

Straight to you, Julie.

直接告訴你，朱莉。

So in terms of -- I see a competitive P&L as one that's operating to full capacity and making optimal use of the resources in the business and capital allocation in the business. And I think progress, the progress has been made in GSK already following the separation with the future ready program. I mean, clearly, at the moment, we're in the launch cycle with a number of important medicines and vaccines being brought to the market, as Luke and Deborah both mentioned. As we move beyond this, of course, we will continue to look for efficiencies, and we do anticipate once we're through that launch cycle that SG&A will grow (inaudible) in sales, thereby improving that particular margin.

因此，就我而言，我認為具有競爭力的損益表是指充分利用業務資源和業務資本配置的損益表。我認為，在與未來就緒計劃分離之後，葛蘭素史克已經取得了進步。我的意思是，顯然，目前我們正處於推出週期，許多重要的藥物和疫苗被推向市場，正如盧克和黛博拉都提到的那樣。當然，當我們超越這個目標時，我們將繼續尋求效率，並且我們確實預計，一旦我們完成該發布週期，SG&A 的銷售額將會增長（聽不清），從而提高特定的利潤率。

And working with Tony closely because, obviously, I've been in the pharma industry for a long time and worked with R&D for a long time. Clearly, investment and productivity and resource allocation in R&D is critical to a pharmaceutical business. So as you can imagine, I will spend some time looking for continuous improvement and opportunities to fuel business efficiencies to fuel further growth.

與托尼密切合作是因為，顯然，我在製藥行業工作了很長時間，並且在研發領域工作了很長時間。顯然，研發投資、生產力以及資源分配對於製藥企業至關重要。因此，正如您可以想像的那樣，我將花一些時間尋找持續改進和機會來提高業務效率，從而推動進一步增長。

So next question comes from Emily Field from Barclays. Okay, can I propose to take the next question then from Peter Welford .

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的艾米麗·菲爾德。好的，我可以建議回答 Peter Welford 提出的下一個問題嗎？

Oh, no, can you hear me? Sorry, I didn't get the pop up. I didn't get the pop up, I apologize. Sorry. So I wanted to ask a question on flow vaccine. I know that you had previously guided for a down year, but that's supposed to be down 20%. If you could give any color on what the driver is for that. And then I believe on the pipeline slide, you indicated that we could get an update on the go-forward plans for the mRNA seasonal flu vaccine? And if you could just give any sort of high-level thoughts on what we could expect from that decision in the back half of this year?

哦，不，你能聽到我說話嗎？抱歉，我沒有看到彈出窗口。我沒有看到彈出窗口，抱歉。對不起。所以我想問一個關於流疫苗的問題。我知道您之前曾預測今年會下跌，但實際應該是下跌 20%。如果您能給出有關驅動程序的用途的任何顏色。然後我相信在管道幻燈片上，您表示我們可以獲得 mRNA 季節性流感疫苗的進展計劃的最新信息？您是否可以對今年下半年我們對這一決定的期望提出任何高層想法？

Okay. Thanks, Emily. I think you said on flu. So I'll come to -- I mean, as you know current flu business is in, let's call it, not almost modern technology platform, and we are expecting a decline in (inaudible) on why? You see that, but once again, to reiterate our overall outlook back overall remains very strong for the year. And then perhaps then you could update, I know we're excited about potential doublet. Luke if you go out with mRNA.

好的。謝謝，艾米麗。我想你說的是流感。所以我會談到——我的意思是，正如你所知，目前的流感業務處於，讓我們稱之為，幾乎不是現代技術平台，我們預計（聽不清）會下降，為什麼？你看到了這一點，但再次重申我們今年的整體前景仍然非常強勁。然後也許你可以更新，我知道我們對潛在的雙峰感到興奮。盧克，如果你帶著 mRNA 出去的話。

So basically, you've got a comparative issue as the demand around the time of COVID, of course, was very high. And so that's -- there's pressure there. And the fact is there's a lot of doses around there, but people are very motivated to discount topline, so we're seeing pricing pressure. In terms of volumes, we expect around 43 million doses this year versus around $51 million that we sold in 2022. So our goal remains to evolve this technology, and I'll hand over to Tony.

所以基本上，你遇到了一個比較問題，因為新冠疫情期間的需求當然非常高。所以這就是——那裡有壓力。事實上，那裡有很多劑量，但人們非常願意打折，所以我們看到了定價壓力。就銷量而言，我們預計今年的銷量約為 4300 萬劑，而 2022 年的銷量約為 5100 萬美元。因此，我們的目標仍然是發展這項技術，我將把工作交給托尼。

Yes. So first of all, I mean, as I said, we're now moving with the mRNA partnership and into -- and COVID into evaluation of multivalent options. We continue to be encouraged by the data that we see there and that move into Phase I and Phase II studies, we expect in the case of both instances, and we'll see be dashed on those towards the end of the year and at the beginning of next year. Probably the only other thing I would add is that I'm sure you followed this well. The field continues to encounter difficulties in [times] with regards to coverage, particularly in these strains. And what I'd say at this point is our studies are designed to account for on the stream coverage. I'm looking at a broader range of antigens. So all of that will come together when we have an opportunity to update you in more detail at the beginning of next year. We're very pleased with the progress on the platform.

是的。首先，我的意思是，正如我所說，我們現在正在與 mRNA 合作夥伴關係進行合作，並進入對新冠病毒的多價選項的評估。我們繼續對我們在那裡看到的數據以及進入第一階段和第二階段研究的數據感到鼓舞，我們預計在這兩種情況下，我們將在年底和年底看到這些數據的破滅明年初。也許我要補充的唯一一件事是我確信您遵循得很好。該領域在覆蓋範圍方面繼續遇到困難，特別是在這些菌株方面。我現在要說的是，我們的研究旨在考慮流媒體覆蓋範圍。我正在研究更廣泛的抗原。因此，當我們有機會在明年初向您提供更詳細的最新消息時，所有這些都將匯集在一起。我們對該平台的進展感到非常滿意。

So our next question is from Peter Welford at Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Peter Welford。

I want to come back and apologize to it, but be just U.S. Shingrix for a minute, just to try and understand the cadence here that we're talking about. I mean presumably, the retail segment is typically the segment that we would anticipate to increase towards the end of the year. So just trying to understand, in that segment, you're saying demand is still robust. But presumably, we will see the usual sort of detailing that you do together with blue? Or is there any sort of issue, I guess, with (inaudible) perhaps taking over a priority there going into the flu season for the retail channel this year. And for the nonretail, just trying to understand. So the issue is that there's a large, the majority of the non-retail segment has yet to reach that 60% to 65%, but it's becoming -- could you talk about what is the challenge perhaps to [debt] doctors there? Is it coverage? Or is it as insurance coverage? Or is it just getting these people back in to see the position? What is exactly the sort of the ceiling there with the doctors, please? .

我想回來向它道歉，但暫時只是美國 Shingrix，只是為了嘗試理解我們正在談論的節奏。我的意思是，零售部門通常是我們預計在年底增加的部門。因此，只是想了解一下，在該領域，您說需求仍然強勁。但想必，我們會看到您與藍色一起製作的常見細節？或者我猜是否存在任何問題，（聽不清）可能會在今年進入流感季節時成為零售渠道的優先事項。對於非零售業，只是想了解一下。所以問題是，很大一部分非零售領域尚未達到 60% 到 65%，但它正在成為——您能談談那裡的[債務]醫生面臨的挑戰是什麼嗎？是覆蓋範圍嗎？還是作為保險範圍？或者只是讓這些人回來看看這個職位？請問醫生的上限到底是多少？ 。

Sure. So Peter, I'll start with non-retail first. So we've had a couple of very, very large players that we intensively worked with, its natural when you've got momentum, you try and go with that. And we really wanted to see how high the penetration can get. We still expect those large centers to keep vaccinating and our end is to go beyond 60%. But the curve does tend to flatten out at 60%. Now if we think long term, this is why I'm personally fascinated with the relationship that we've seen in the well study around vaccination and Shingrix and a potential relationship with Dimension, we're going to be very busy with life cycle work on that one, both prospectively and retrospective analysis. There are another 197 key customers that we have that are in the 30s or a range from sort of 30s to 60s that we are now putting more work behind it. We also pulled back on the primary care promotion on Shingrix in these centers and concentrating on Trelegy to give that (inaudible) as an experiment to see if PCPs will fall.

當然。彼得，我將首先從非零售領域開始。因此，我們有一些非常非常大的球員，我們與他們密切合作，當你有動力時，你很自然地會嘗試並繼續下去。我們真的很想看看滲透率能達到多高。我們仍然期望那些大型中心繼續接種疫苗，我們的目標是超過 60%。但曲線在 60% 時確實趨於平坦。現在，如果我們從長遠來看，這就是為什麼我個人對我們在疫苗接種和 Shingrix 的良好研究中看到的關係以及與 Dimension 的潛在關係著迷，我們將非常忙於生命週期工作對此，進行前瞻性和回顧性分析。我們還有另外 197 名 30 多歲或 30 多歲到 60 多歲的關鍵客戶，我們現在正在為此投入更多工作。我們還取消了這些中心對 Shingrix 的初級保健推廣，並將重點放在 Trelegy 上，以（聽不清）作為實驗，看看 PCP 是否會下降。

We're now switching that team back to Shingrix. So that's all pointing in the right direction. It's more a case prioritization and just moving that up, these larger centers put a flag in a system, and we saw (inaudible) really moving. So we just need to do the hard work to pick up the other ones now, and I feel very confident we can do that. In terms of retail, you're right, there is -- there's still a seasonal relationship, and we expect that to continue. It's not as extreme as it was in the first couple of years of Shingrix, but it's still exists. The unknowns, there's no push on PERLA booster this year, but we don't know what affect that is, that has been a drag historically. But as you correctly point out, we're going to be very busy with Arexvy targeting the high-risk individual, which is a subset of the Shingrix target universe. Let's say we get some more color. I fortunately don't have a crystal ball, but I remain very confident about the demand of this product in the U.S. in '23.

我們現在將該團隊切換回 Shingrix。所以這一切都指向正確的方向。這更多的是一個案例優先級，只是將其向上移動，這些較大的中心在系統中放置了一個標誌，我們看到（聽不清）真正的移動。所以我們現在只需要努力去接其他的，我非常有信心我們可以做到這一點。就零售而言，你是對的，仍然存在季節性關係，我們預計這種關係將持續下去。雖然不像 Shingrix 最初幾年那樣極端，但它仍然存在。未知數，今年 PERLA 助推器沒有推動，但我們不知道這是什麼影響，這在歷史上一直是一個拖累。但正如您正確指出的那樣，我們將非常忙於以 Arexvy 為目標的高風險個體，這是 Shingrix 目標宇宙的一個子集。假設我們得到了更多顏色。幸運的是我沒有水晶球，但我對23年美國對該產品的需求仍然非常有信心。

And just to remind everyone, again, ex U.S. and German we're less than 3% penetration. So there is no mention (inaudible) for this asset, and it's an asset that we (inaudible).

再次提醒大家，除美國和德國外，我們的滲透率還不到 3%。因此，沒有提及（聽不清）該資產，而它是我們（聽不清）的資產。

So our next question comes from Eric Le Berrigaud of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Eric Le Berrigaud。

Just a question to get more clarity in terms of cash flow development. We're now getting in terms of earning growth into the double digits, and you're raising the guidance here, but still guiding in terms of cash flow declining this year. Could you maybe give us a little bit more details about the push and pulls to make the difference between earnings growth and cash flow decline even though we go beyond the Gilead settlement and the COVID impact and whether getting into '24 and beyond, we might see cash flow development more in line with earnings.

只是一個為了更清楚地了解現金流發展的問題。我們現在的盈利增長達到了兩位數，你們在這裡提高了指導，但仍然對今年現金流下降進行了指導。您能否給我們提供更多關於影響盈利增長和現金流下降之間差異的推力和拉力的詳細信息，即使我們超出了吉利德和解協議和新冠疫情的影響，以及是否進入 24 世紀及以後，我們可能會看到現金流的發展與盈利更加一致。

Well, over to you, Julie. And remember, we're reiterating our '26 outlook for operating cash flow.

好吧，交給你了，朱莉。請記住，我們重申了 26 年運營現金流的展望。

So this year, clearly, we've had an influence of a number of factors with the cash flow. A couple of things happened last year that have obviously inflected the comparator. So last year, with the cash flow, we had the Gilead settlement that occurred at the beginning of the year. And then we've also had Xevudy receivables coming in last year. This year, the cash flow has been depressed somewhat partly by movements in working capital and also which we expect to resolve by the end of the year. And also, we've had an additional pension payment that's been made this year, which was reasonably sizable over GBP 350 million. So there are some one-offs you may call them relating to the cash flow. This is why you see the GBP 2 billion swing in the first half. But we are maintaining the guidance for the full year for cash flow, which is basically to be slightly lower than last year. The major reason you do see this difference usually are cash flow rating is very much towards the second half. We normally have around 70% to 75% of the cash coming into the second half of the year. Last year it was very unusual. It was 50-50 because of the things I mentioned.

因此，今年，顯然，我們的現金流受到了許多因素的影響。去年發生的幾件事顯然影響了比較器。所以去年，憑藉現金流，我們在年初與吉利德達成了和解。去年我們也收到了 Xevudy 應收賬款。今年，現金流量有所下降，部分原因是營運資金的變動，我們預計這一問題將在年底得到解決。此外，我們今年還支付了一筆額外的養老金，金額相當大，超過 3.5 億英鎊。因此，有一些一次性的事情你可以稱之為與現金流有關的事情。這就是為什麼你會看到上半年 20 億英鎊的波動。但我們維持全年現金流指引，基本上是略低於去年。您確實看到這種差異的主要原因通常是現金流評級非常接近下半年。我們通常有大約 70% 到 75% 的現金進入下半年。去年這是很不尋常的。由於我提到的事情，結果是 50-50。

So that's why you're seeing the difference. In terms of 2024, obviously, we'll guide when we come to that at the end of the year. But you can be sure that we will care for cash. We'll be very focused on cash conversion and the translation of profit into cash. You can see us paying a lot of attention to those as we go forward.

這就是您看到差異的原因。就 2024 年而言，顯然，我們將在年底時提供指導。但你可以確信我們會關心現金。我們將非常關注現金轉換以及將利潤轉化為現金。您可以看到我們在前進過程中非常關注這些問題。

We have the next question from Michael Leuchten at UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Michael Leuchten 提出了下一個問題。

Question RSV and Luke's comment on prioritization, please. So I guess the ACIP recommendation could have been a little bit stronger than it was. Just wondering how you reacted to that? Will you throw more commercial resources at Direct fee? Or is the plan executed as it was?

請對 RSV 和 Luke 對優先順序的評論提出質疑。所以我認為 ACIP 的建議可能比現在更強烈一些。只是想知道你對此有何反應？您會以直接費用投入更多的商業資源嗎？還是計劃照原樣執行？

Thanks. I know it's (inaudible) bit of color to that.

謝謝。我知道這有點（聽不清）色彩。

Sure. Look, I think on my Christmas wish list, it would have been for a similar label. That's the label we've got -- but I think to put it in perspective, our strategy has always been to focus on this progress individuals to naturally would engage in that type of discussion with the health care provider, our regular visitors to the pharmacy because they're polypharmacy. And we have market research that clearly says that. And if you look at our label, that secondary claims, the 94% efficacy, et cetera, really plays to our strength. So I think at the end of the day, it doesn't have an enormous impact in the first couple of years.

當然。看，我想在我的聖誕願望清單上，也會有類似的標籤。這就是我們的標籤——但我認為，從長遠來看，我們的策略始終是關注這一進展，個人自然會與醫療保健提供者、我們藥房的常客進行此類討論因為他們是複方藥物。我們的市場研究清楚地表明了這一點。如果你看一下我們的標籤，那些次要聲明、94% 的功效等等，確實發揮了我們的優勢。所以我認為歸根結底，它在最初幾年並沒有產生巨大的影響。

We are now actively with (inaudible) generating the data that the ACIP would want to see, and we're confident that we can bring that. So I think if we look in the medium to long term, we'll see this a fully supported similar access process for these vaccines. Our discussions with insurance are very, very encouraging. There's also been some really good work published by our friends in New York that looked at rates of RSV greater in hospital setting, particularly to use (inaudible) in those tests, and they're looking at. It's really an under-diagnosed by a factor or to. So the demand is there, the willingness to recommend is there. So we remained encouraged and the pricing of imports is higher. I think we have to see the full effect in terms of the multi-season label.

我們現在正在積極（聽不清）生成 ACIP 希望看到的數據，並且我們有信心能夠實現這些數據。因此，我認為，如果我們從中長期來看，我們將看到這些疫苗的完全支持的類似獲取流程。我們與保險公司的討論非常非常令人鼓舞。我們在紐約的朋友也發表了一些非常好的工作，研究了醫院環境中 RSV 的發生率，特別是在這些測試中使用（聽不清），他們正在研究。這確實是由於某種因素而導致診斷不足。所以需求有了，推薦的意願就有了。因此，我們仍然受到鼓舞，進口定價更高。我認為我們必須看到多季節標籤的全部效果。

But again, for these high-risk patients, I think this is more of a reassurance and also, arguably, let's just move this out of the seasonal color that we would normally typically have with flu because you've got that longer time frame in terms of courage. So net-net, I think we remain very excited as Emma said. We are very much looking forward to a scientific battle with Pfizer, and it's something that we relish. And in the end, it's going to be mean that physicians and pharmacists are better informed if patients are going to get a better vaccine.

但同樣，對於這些高風險患者來說，我認為這更像是一種安慰，而且可以說，讓我們將其從流感通常具有的季節性顏色中移出，因為你有更長的時間範圍勇氣方面。因此，正如艾瑪所說，我認為我們仍然非常興奮。我們非常期待與輝瑞進行一場科學大戰，這是我們所津津樂道的。最終，如果患者想要獲得更好的疫苗，這將意味著醫生和藥劑師能夠更好地了解情況。

Next question from Graham Parry of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的格雷厄姆·帕里。

So actually, I just wanted to follow up on, I think a couple of people asked effectively if you can grow Shingrix in the U.S. I'll just throw that to Alex. I don't think it's been answered and then actually ask my question, which is on Zantac. So with the Gilead settlement, you showed a willingness or even a desired settle cases in California, but is that still the attitude that you have towards the upcoming case in November. And now the same lead plaintiff attorney is representing the plaintiff both in California and the Delaware cases with any settlement of the entirety of the (inaudible) litigation now need to include a Delaware settlement as well?

所以實際上，我只是想跟進，我想有幾個人有效地詢問了是否可以在美國種植 Shingrix。我會把這個問題交給 Alex。我認為這個問題還沒有得到解答，然後才真正提出我的問題，這是在 Zantac 上的。因此，通過吉利德和解，你們表現出了在加利福尼亞州解決案件的意願甚至是期望，但這仍然是你們對 11 月份即將到來的案件的態度嗎？現在，同一位首席原告律師在加利福尼亞州和特拉華州案件中代表原告，整個（聽不清）訴訟的和解現在也需要包括特拉華州和解嗎？

Well. We'll come to Luke see whether he wants to add anything more to he's already used (inaudible) on the U.S. But in terms of Zantac we remain very confident in our position. We continue to be guided by the science the evidence sustained in place. We've got a dedicated team managing this. We'll continue to defend ourselves vigorously. We obviously won't comment on our specific legal strategy ahead of its execution. Happy to be where we are and we'll keep everybody updated as we progress through. Obviously, knowing that we've got Delaware coming in the new year. So nothing more to add than that. He is shaking his head with nothing new to add on Shingrix. So back to you Nick.

出色地。我們會去找盧克，看看他是否想在他已經在美國使用的（聽不清）的基礎上添加更多東西。但就 Zantac 而言，我們對我們的立場仍然非常有信心。我們繼續以科學證據為指導。我們有一個專門的團隊來管理這個問題。我們將繼續積極捍衛自己。我們顯然不會在執行之前就我們的具體法律策略發表評論。很高興能到達現在的位置，隨著我們的進展，我們將向大家通報最新情況。顯然，我們知道特拉華州將在新的一年到來。所以沒有什麼可以補充的了。他搖著頭，表示 Shingrix 沒有什麼新內容可以補充。回到你尼克。

We take the next question from Rajesh Kumar at HSBC, please.

我們回答匯豐銀行 Rajesh Kumar 提出的下一個問題。

Just on the capital allocation piece. You suggested that you're going to focus on deals as well as investing organically in R&D. So could you run us through some criteria you look at when you deploy capital when you pick between R&D versus external investment, how do you compare the 2? What are the internal metrics you look at? And if the management below the top management incentivized similarly for doing deals versus organic investment?

只是在資本配置方面。您建議您將重點關注交易以及對研發的有機投資。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您在部署資本時在研發與外部投資之間進行選擇時所考慮的一些標準，您如何比較這兩者？您關注哪些內部指標？高層管理人員以下的管理層是否對交易和有機投資採取類似的激勵措施？

Yes. So I'll comment on that and then see if Luke wants to add on further. But -- it should be really clear in our capital allocation framework that our #1 priority is the (inaudible). And as you saw both reduced and from Tony's slides, that's about the pipeline and our launches. And within the pipeline, it is organic and inorganic. I mean we all know this across the entire sector. I think about half the pipeline is posted outside. That number is probably going up across the sector. And we've been really pleased with the reset of our balance sheet to create the capacity to do that and have had a very focused track record of executing against deals reasonably swift pace, particularly over the last 18 months, so you should expect to see it will be the same. I think the most important point is because it's part of the way we do R&D, our BD team reports into Tony, there is -- we've been very thoughtful about the incentive system and the goals that we set in terms of pipeline progression to keep it neutral regardless of whether it's sourced internally or externally because you're absolutely right. .

是的。所以我會對此發表評論，然後看看盧克是否想進一步補充。但是，在我們的資本配置框架中應該非常清楚，我們的第一要務是（聽不清）。正如您在托尼的幻燈片中看到的那樣，這與管道和我們的發布有關。而在管道內，它是有機的和無機的。我的意思是我們整個行業都知道這一點。我認為大約一半的管道都張貼在外面。這個數字可能在整個行業中不斷上升。我們對資產負債表的重置感到非常高興，以創造做到這一點的能力，並且在以相當快的速度執行交易方面有著非常集中的記錄，特別是在過去 18 個月裡，所以你應該期望看到一切都會一樣。我認為最重要的一點是，因為這是我們研發方式的一部分，我們的 BD 團隊向托尼匯報，我們對激勵制度以及我們在管道進展方面設定的目標進行了非常深思熟慮。無論它是來自內部還是外部，都保持中立，因為你是絕對正確的。 。

And then there was a slightly perverse incentives around that, which aren't helpful. And our criteria are unchanged, and I think we laid out explicitly on Tony's opening slide. We like to look for assets to the best of all persons. We look at ROIs, NPVs. We look at contribution to sales growth, particularly in the latter half of decade and beyond. We went across the balanced portfolio of risk across all therapeutic areas. We're obviously focused more on investing in our specialty and vaccines pipeline, but also in technology platforms that will allow us to continue to improve productivity. So that's why we like to see the tech enablement of what we bring through. The really important point is that we're got this whether internal or external regardless of TA, we use the same set of criteria. So I don't know if (inaudible) Julie Brown.

然後還有一些稍微不正當的激勵措施，這並沒有什麼幫助。我們的標準沒有改變，我認為我們在托尼的開場幻燈片上明確列出了。我們喜歡為所有人尋找最優秀的資產。我們關注投資回報率、淨現值。我們著眼於對銷售增長的貢獻，特別是在後五年及以後。我們研究了所有治療領域的平衡風險組合。顯然，我們更注重投資於我們的專業產品和疫苗管道，同時也注重投資於能夠讓我們繼續提高生產力的技術平台。這就是為什麼我們希望看到我們所帶來的技術支持。真正重要的一點是，無論是內部還是外部，無論助教如何，我們都使用同一組標準。所以我不知道（聽不清）朱莉·布朗是否。

Just an extra point. I think I mean we have got also a very rigorous governance process that runs through both BD assets, we get together regularly looking at the BD pipeline as well as the organic pipeline. And as Emma mentioned, one of our jobs we see as being very important is also to accelerate the key assets. So we identified the key assets. We look to accelerate them. We looked to ensure that they've got the right resources to do that and that we remove any blocker that could be there in the organization. And finally, we also review assets, whether it be BD or organic for success. So we do post deal reviews also. So there's a very rigorous process around this.

只是一個額外的點。我想我的意思是，我們還有一個非常嚴格的治理流程，貫穿兩個 BD 資產，我們定期聚在一起查看 BD 管道以及有機管道。正如艾瑪提到的，我們認為非常重要的工作之一也是加速關鍵資產的開發。因此我們確定了關鍵資產。我們希望加速他們的進程。我們希望確保他們擁有正確的資源來做到這一點，並消除組織中可能存在的任何障礙。最後，我們還會審查資產，無論是業務拓展還是有機資產，以確保成功。所以我們也會發布交易評論。因此，有一個非常嚴格的流程。

Next question from Rich Parkes at BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Rich Parkes 提出了下一個問題。

So I just wanted to push you a little bit more to talk about your expectation for the RSV launch based on the initial outreach. I think with the need for places looking uncertain, and I think the market's skeptical on your previous Shingrix-like target, but given higher pricing, clearly, it could be a more meaningful opportunity midterm if you can drive rapid uptake. Looking at consensus, I think we got GBP 180 million of sales this year and growing to 570 next year. I just wondered if you could give us your thoughts on whether you see potential to exceed those numbers? Or is the weaker ACIP recommendation and maybe lower vaccine that take your factoring into flu vaccine going to be a headwind to that. I know you've not upgraded the vaccines guidance despite that higher pricing. So does that moderate your expectations in terms of volume.

因此，我只是想進一步推動您根據最初的宣傳談談您對 RSV 發布的期望。我認為，由於地方的需求看起來不確定，而且我認為市場對你們之前類似 Shingrix 的目標持懷疑態度，但考慮到更高的定價，顯然，如果你們能夠推動快速採用，那麼中期可能是一個更有意義的機會。從共識來看，我認為今年我們的銷售額為 1.8 億英鎊，明年將增長到 570 英鎊。我只是想知道您是否可以告訴我們您是否認為有可能超過這些數字？或者，較弱的 ACIP 建議和可能較低的疫苗（將您納入流感疫苗的因素）將成為這一目標的阻力。我知道儘管價格更高，但你們還沒有升級疫苗指南。這是否會降低您對數量的期望。

Thanks. Well, I mean, first of all, I'll start and then I'll come to Luke on any additional comments. But there is absolutely no change to our outlook, which was reemphasized again or meet the management update on infectious diseases that we see the potential of this to be around GBP 3 billion of sales. So in that sense, it's a multibillion asset. I think we've been clear right from the beginning that we didn't expect the start. We're at the same rate as Shingrix just for the simple fact or awareness to see what that competitiveness for an on-space in there. But also, as you know, we had a very specific recommendations from ACIP (inaudible) as well as the (inaudible) initial sort of supply, we are a long way from dealing with here. We're also taking a different pace of launching in most of the countries across the world. We don't guide for individual quarters of sales, but we will likely comments on some more details around the price as well.

謝謝。嗯，我的意思是，首先，我會開始，然後我會向盧克提出任何其他意見。但我們的前景絕對沒有改變，我們再次強調了這一點，或者符合管理層對傳染病的最新情況，我們認為銷售額的潛力約為 30 億英鎊。所以從這個意義上說，它是一筆數十億美元的資產。我認為我們從一開始就很清楚我們沒有預料到會發生。我們與 Shingrix 的速度相同，只是為了簡單的事實或意識，看看那裡的空間競爭力如何。而且，正如您所知，我們從 ACIP（聽不清）以及（聽不清）初始供應中得到了非常具體的建議，我們距離處理這裡還有很長的路要走。我們還在世界上大多數國家採取了不同的推出速度。我們不會對各個季度的銷售進行指導，但我們可能也會對有關價格的更多細節發表評論。

I think there was no solution for RSV historically. So it didn't really make a lot of sense systems to focus on. And then as you saw covered with PCR testing, ultimate was in the company test and better understanding the character and prevalence of RFC emerged. So I think we're in a very different place than we were a couple of years ago. And we -- as we start to promote it and educate the others and pharmacists, and pharmacists can be very enthusiastic about this product. I think that's a very favorable kind of ambition. There's a heavy overlap with, if you look (inaudible). And of course, the Shingrix population and the (inaudible) population. I've said in the past, and I think it will be a steady build that the people will be very strong. And this is outstanding data for something that's very impactful the health care systems and individuals. So I think we'll get there. And the dot we've generated so far is (inaudible). Pricing wise, again, we went in ACIP with the [call] of 270 to 295, and we've been able to keep within that 280. So I think our credibility with ACIP is in house through that process and the reception we've received so far for payers and pharmacy change has been very encouraging. So that's probably all I can say at this point, I very much look forward to updating everyone at Q3.

我認為歷史上沒有針對 RSV 的解決方案。所以它並沒有真正讓很多有意義的系統值得關注。然後，正如您所看到的 PCR 測試，最終是在公司測試中，並且更好地了解 RFC 的特徵和流行程度。所以我認為我們現在的處境與幾年前非常不同。當我們開始推廣它並教育其他人和藥劑師時，藥劑師可能會對這種產品非常熱情。我認為這是一種非常有利的野心。如果你看的話，有很多重疊（聽不清）。當然，還有 Shingrix 人口和（聽不清）人口。我過去說過，我認為這將是一個穩定的建設，人民將非常強大。這是對醫療保健系統和個人非常有影響力的傑出數據。所以我想我們會到達那裡。到目前為止我們生成的點是（聽不清）。定價方面，我們再次以 270 到 295 的[呼叫]加入 ACIP，並且我們能夠將其保持在 280 以內。因此，我認為我們對 ACIP 的信譽是通過這個過程和我們的接待建立在內部的。迄今為止，付款人和藥房所收到的變化非常令人鼓舞。這可能就是我現在能說的全部內容，我非常期待在第三季度向大家通報最新情況。

Next question is from Andrew Baum from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安德魯·鮑姆 (Andrew Baum)。

In relation to Trelegy, we're expecting it to be included in the IRA price negotiation list being enacted in 2027. I'm curious as to how Luke is thinking about the ability of GSK to claw back the rebate in order to mitigate the impact of the list price reduction. My understanding is that PBMs cannot exclude a drug once it's been selected for price negotiations. Do you think you can take away the rebate? Or do you think that the PBMs will make you pay by creating hurdles to other products in your portfolio? And then just following up on an earlier question in relation to the impact of the out-of-pocket cap in driving increased volumes. To what extent do you think -- because still the patients are going to have to pay $2,000 out of their own pocket, how meaningful do you think that really is in getting patients off your patient assistance program on to pay drugs? Or do you actually think $2,000 is still a real barrier for many patients and therefore, the volume impact isn't going to be that meaningful?

至於 Trelegy，我們預計它將被納入 2027 年制定的 IRA 價格談判清單中。我很好奇 Luke 是如何看待 GSK 收回回扣以減輕影響的能力的標價下調。我的理解是，藥物一旦被選中進行價格談判，藥物福利管理就不能將其排除在外。你覺得你能拿走回扣嗎？或者您是否認為 PBM 會通過為您投資組合中的其他產品設置障礙來讓您付出代價？然後繼續跟進之前的一個問題，即自付費用上限對推動交易量增加的影響。您認為在多大程度上——因為患者仍然需要自掏腰包支付 2,000 美元，您認為讓患者從您的患者援助計劃中支付藥物費用到底有多大意義？或者您是否真的認為 2,000 美元對許多患者來說仍然是一個真正的障礙，因此，數量影響不會那麼有意義？

Yes. Andrew, I think $2,000 is still a large amount of money for many people, particularly older individuals. But it's an improvement. It's more predictable for those patients. So I don't see a massive adjustment in some of our systems program, particularly in oncology and areas like that. In terms of Trelegy, I mean, Q4 this year, we'll have a better idea in terms of how CMS is defining those first [poppy] drugs and how it's going to be managed. But we have, as you said, a very high IRA rates of Trelegy already. I think PBMs probably did more your second scenario is more likely to be a reality. And I think we'd be -- we're very rational to make that assumption. But we're obviously starting to think about rational (inaudible) and initiating discussions with them. I think the other fact with Trelegy is where you'll see a generic emerge at some point because the technical challenges that we can see in closing in how medicines are validating that for a relative part is not simple as we've seen with that bet. So I think that's also another factor which we're starting to look at.

是的。安德魯，我認為 2,000 美元對於很多人來說仍然是一大筆錢，尤其是老年人。但這是一個進步。對於這些患者來說，這更具可預測性。因此，我認為我們的某些系統計劃不會發生大規模調整，特別是在腫瘤學和類似領域。就 Trelegy 而言，我的意思是，今年第四季度，我們將更好地了解 CMS 如何定義第一批[罌粟]藥物以及如何管理它。但正如您所說，我們的 Trelegy 的 IRA 比率已經非常高了。我認為 PBM 可能做得更多，你的第二種情況更有可能成為現實。我認為我們做出這樣的假設是非常理性的。但我們顯然開始考慮理性（聽不清）並開始與他們進行討論。我認為 Trelegy 的另一個事實是，你會在某個時候看到仿製藥的出現，因為我們在藥物如何驗證相關部分方面所面臨的技術挑戰並不像我們在該賭注中看到的那麼簡單。所以我認為這也是我們開始考慮的另一個因素。

Next question from (inaudible)

下一個問題來自（聽不清）

Question to Deborah on (inaudible) HIV. Can any (inaudible) performance in Q2. Just whether you can talk to that? Was that growth in the third quarter will reflective of underlying demand? Or are there anyone off to be aware of in modeling sales in the second half of this year and beyond. You also highlighted that together two drug regimens, long-acting represent, I think you said around 50% of total. So interested in to see whether that run rate at this point is what you would have expected and the long-acting also lean particularly, you behind in line or ahead of those internal expectations at this point in the year. I squeeze in the quick one just to remind us of the time lines for your 3 monthly dosing formulation.

向黛博拉提出關於（聽不清）艾滋病毒的問題。第二季度可以有任何（聽不清）表現嗎？只是你能談談嗎？第三季度的增長是否反映了潛在需求？或者在今年下半年及以後的模特銷售中是否有任何人需要注意。您還強調了兩種藥物治療方案，長效藥物合計佔總數的 50% 左右。因此很想知道此時的運行率是否符合您的預期，並且長效也特別傾斜，您在今年的這個時候落後於或領先於內部預期。我擠進快速的只是為了提醒我們你們 3 個月劑量配方的時間線。

Well, obviously, we're extremely pleased with the performance of [Biktarvy] this year and be able to upgrade our outlook on it and not least because of the innovation that we pioneered on coming through so strongly. So Deborah if you want to add.

嗯，顯然，我們對 [Biktarvy] 今年的表現非常滿意，並且能夠提升我們對它的看法，尤其是因為我們率先實現的創新如此強勁。如果你想補充的話，黛博拉。

For me to say we're really pleased with the performance of our HIV business in the quarter really strong underlying growth for both our loyalty drug regimens and our (inaudible) injectables, and that is absolutely being driven by demand. So let's go into Cabenuva it's for demand. We have seen really positive demand for our products for people who are living with HIV and we noticed this is set to continue because we know that many doctors' offices have got people on waiting list particularly in the U.S. to be started on the drug. So it's a really strong underlying demand for people with. We expect that to continue -- and this, in turn, gives us confidence that we can build this market, and we can deliver greater and greater share of this market through our long-acting (inaudible).

我想說的是，我們對本季度艾滋病毒業務的表現感到非常滿意，我們的忠誠藥物治療方案和（聽不清）注射劑的潛在增長非常強勁，這絕對是由需求驅動的。那麼讓我們進入 Cabenuva 來滿足需求。我們看到艾滋病毒感染者對我們的產品有非常積極的需求，我們注意到這種情況將會持續下去，因為我們知道許多醫生辦公室已經將人們列入等候名單，特別是在美國，等待開始使用該藥物。因此，對於患有這種疾病的人來說，這是一個非常強大的潛在需求。我們預計這種情況將繼續下去，這反過來又讓我們有信心能夠建立這個市場，並且我們可以通過我們的長效（聽不清）在這個市場上獲得越來越大的份額。

In terms of expectations, it's ahead of where we expected. If I'm completely honest to be 51% of our overall portfolio in, our overall 2 [veterans] and long acting is ahead of expectation. We're really delighted by the underlying demand and particularly the long-acting injectable uptake from Cabenuva. It takes a long time to build the market and you win this market on your own. So you always wonder how much will it take, how you unlock each stage of the journey, each side you face. And actually, the answer is yes, we can. We're really optimistic, really optimistic about this opportunity. In terms of the pipeline, I mean, we'll talk more about this at the media management session in September, but what we've said is that we're looking to target an automating version of (inaudible) so ultra-long-acting average treatment plus from 2027 onwards. We're making really good progress with our reformulation of cabotegravir because that's going to be the backbone to the first wave of our innovation trend treatment. And so what you've probably seen on some of the slides that Tony presented was starting to move forward the company partners is being maturation inhibitor, be it (inaudible) or be (inaudible). And so we're kind of moving those assets forward so that we can make a choice in 2024 of the regimen that we will take forward. And so the date that we've given in our previous investor update and, but we hope to be able to give you a little more specificity when we do the [meet] management in September. But very optimistic position to be in both from a pipeline and a forward perspective in the HIV space.

就預期而言，它超出了我們的預期。如果我完全誠實地說，我們整體投資組合的 51% 是在，我們的整體 2 [退伍軍人] 和長期行動是超出預期的。我們對潛在的需求，特別是 Cabenuva 長效注射劑的吸收感到非常高興。市場的建立需要很長時間，而這個市場是你自己贏得的。所以你總是想知道這需要多少時間，你如何解鎖旅程的每個階段，你面臨的每一面。事實上，答案是肯定的，我們可以。我們對這個機會非常樂觀，非常樂觀。就管道而言，我的意思是，我們將在 9 月份的媒體管理會議上更多地討論這一點，但我們所說的是，我們正在尋求針對（聽不清）如此超長的自動化版本從 2027 年起，採取平均治療加法。我們在卡博特韋的重新配方方面取得了非常好的進展，因為這將成為我們第一波創新趨勢治療的支柱。因此，您可能在托尼演示的一些幻燈片中看到，公司合作夥伴開始向前邁進，無論是（聽不清）還是（聽不清），都成為成熟抑製劑。因此，我們正在推動這些資產的發展，以便我們能夠在 2024 年對我們將採取的方案做出選擇。因此，我們在之前的投資者更新中給出了日期，但我們希望在 9 月份進行[會議]管理層時能夠為您提供更多具體信息。但從艾滋病毒領域的管道和前瞻性角度來看，我們處於非常樂觀的位置。

Great. Thanks, Deborah. Well, I guess there are still a few handful more questions, so we'll keep going and try and give us (inaudible) myself.

偉大的。謝謝，黛博拉。好吧，我想還有一些問題，所以我們將繼續努力並嘗試給我們（聽不清）我自己。

Just one correction or one clarification. The patent expiry or LOE controlling is 2027, but where IRA infact is 2028. Just want to make sure (inaudible).

只需一項更正或一項澄清。專利到期或 LOE 控制是 2027 年，但 IRA 實際上是 2028 年。只是想確定一下（聽不清）。

Yeah. Simon Baker from Redburn.

是的。來自雷德本的西蒙·貝克。

Going back, turning to Slide 13 on R&D. Two related questions, so one really. Firstly, on the reduced cycle times, could you give us some idea of how much of that is down to therapeutic mix? And how much is underlying reduction in non-vaccine R&D times? And also on the probability trend, you show a nice trend improvement in Phase 2, 3 and beyond probabilities of success. Normally, that is matched by a reduction in success rates in Phase 1, i.e., you are killing projects earlier. I wonder if you could give us an idea how that trend has evolved over time?

返回到幻燈片 13，了解研發。兩個相關的問題，所以真的是一個。首先，關於縮短的周期時間，您能否告訴我們其中有多少是由於治療組合所致？非疫苗研發時間潛在減少了多少？在概率趨勢上，您在第 2 階段、第 3 階段及之後的成功概率方面顯示出良好的趨勢改善。通常，這會伴隨著第一階段成功率的下降，也就是說，你會更早地終止項目。我想知道您能否告訴我們這種趨勢是如何隨著時間的推移而演變的？

(inaudible)

（聽不清）

(inaudible) In terms of your first question with regards to a cycle times, obviously, there's a component of vaccines in that. However, we are seeing cycle times coming down, particularly across our late-stage portfolio. So a contribution from both. And then in terms of success rates in Phase II, of course, all we want to do throughout the portfolio is beginning to take attrition earlier and earlier. And one of the things that we're driving coming from our focus in human genetics and functional genomics and of course, the benefits that we get in focusing in infectious diseases is to be able to take attrition on an efficacy terms much earlier than the first time in human. So I'm expecting -- or rather what we see for the future is the preservation of Phase II success rates and is being accounted for by earlier attrition than that necessarily in first time in human. We're very much more focused on the quality of agents driving survival in that stage.

（聽不清）就你關於週期時間的第一個問題而言，顯然，其中有疫苗的成分。然而，我們看到週期時間正在縮短，特別是在我們的後期投資組合中。所以雙方都有貢獻。當然，就第二階段的成功率而言，我們在整個投資組合中要做的就是開始越來越早地進行消耗。我們正在推動的事情之一來自於我們對人類遺傳學和功能基因組學的關注，當然，我們關注傳染病的好處是能夠比第一個更早地按照功效術語進行消耗人類的時間。所以我期待——或者更確切地說，我們對未來看到的是第二階段成功率的保持，並且是通過比人類第一次必然發生的更早的消耗來解釋的。我們更加關注在這個階段推動生存的代理人的質量。

Next question from Emmanuel Papadakis from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Papadakis 提出了下一個問題。

Perhaps just a quick follow-up. I think, Luke, you said the -- in response to the earlier question around rebates offsetting price negotiation, you said the second scenario. Could you just clarify what you meant by that? Do you mean you think you will be able to reduce rebating to offset that price reduction? And then the question I wanted to ask is just a moment on the delay in the PDUFA. To what extent do you think any BELLUS will now be diminished in demand by the delay given the emerging data we've seen on anemia benefit with [Momelotinib]? And to what extent indeed then is Momelotinib quarterly run rate of GBP 20 million or so, actually a better guide to how we should be thinking about the launch?

也許只是快速跟進。我想，盧克，你提到了——在回答之前有關回扣抵消價格談判的問題時，你提到了第二種情況。您能澄清一下您的意思嗎？您的意思是您認為您將能夠減少回扣以抵消降價嗎？然後我想問的問題是關於 PDUFA 延遲的問題。考慮到我們看到的關於 [Momelotinib] 貧血益處的新數據，您認為現在 BELLUS 的需求會在多大程度上因延遲而減少？那麼，莫莫洛替尼季度運行率達到 2000 萬英鎊左右，在多大程度上實際上可以更好地指導我們如何考慮推出這款產品？

Sure, Emmanuel, I just think we're going to have pressure and it's getting difficult to evade those structures, which I think is my understanding of vendors two options. So I would expect a high pain scenario versus the low plan scenario with Trelegy (inaudible) and into other products in the portfolio. But Again, we're looking at options to offset that, and I think that we're making good progress there. In terms of [Momelotinib] I think the BELLUS will still be there. It's really interesting. Some of the recent market research we've got, it's quite current some of the numbers just for interest. I mean (inaudible) and fulfills an unmet need. .

當然，伊曼紐爾，我只是認為我們將面臨壓力，並且很難逃避這些結構，我認為這是我對供應商兩種選擇的理解。因此，我預計 Trelegy（聽不清）和產品組合中的其他產品會出現高痛苦場景，而不是低計劃場景。但我們再次強調，我們正在尋找抵消這一影響的方案，而且我認為我們正在這方面取得良好進展。就 [Momelotinib] 而言，我認為 BELLUS 仍然會存在。這真的很有趣。我們最近進行的一些市場研究，其中一些數據是相當最新的，只是為了引起興趣。我的意思是（聽不清）並且滿足了未滿足的需求。 。

This was quite interesting around 60% of patients present with anemia within 1 year of diagnosis and about 46 needed transfusion. And the other interesting statistics, which fits our strategy is about 2/3 of them are on that 10 to 5-milligram dose of Momelotinib . But in terms of (inaudible) I don't think it's an accurate analog because really, their label is within that platelet subgroup versus the broader anemia group. There has been some, obviously, some credit posters, et cetera, presented that the NCCN guidelines, if you look at the minute they declined to review that broader recommendation.

這非常有趣，大約 60% 的患者在診斷後 1 年內出現貧血，大約 46 人需要輸血。其他有趣的統計數據符合我們的策略，其中大約 2/3 的患者服用 10 至 5 毫克劑量的 Momelotinib。但就（聽不清）而言，我認為這不是一個準確的類比，因為實際上，他們的標籤屬於血小板亞組而不是更廣泛的貧血組。顯然，有一些信用海報等提出了 NCCN 指南，如果你看看他們拒絕審查更廣泛的建議的那一刻。

So that product is very much anchored in a low -- below 50 platelet group, whereas we have a much broader opportunity, we believe, with (inaudible). We'll wait and see what the FDA or excited to turn to the label. We've built the business case for the deal on a second-line label -- second line in India. Hope that helps.

因此，該產品在很大程度上錨定在低 - 低於 50 的血小板組中，而我們相信，（聽不清）我們有更廣泛的機會。我們將拭目以待 FDA 或興奮地轉向標籤。我們已經為二線品牌（印度的二線）交易建立了商業案例。希望有幫助。

Last question. So over to Steve Scala at Cowen.

最後一個問題。接下來請聽 Cowen 的 Steve Scala。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

We can.

我們可以。

In adult RSV, how has your success in contracting thus far compared to your expectations and versus what you think Pfizer has accomplished to date? Is your potentially superior data given the edge versus Pfizer? And if not, then why do you think that's the case?

在成人 RSV 方面，與您的預期以及您認為輝瑞迄今為止所取得的成就相比，您迄今為止在簽約方面取得的成功如何？與輝瑞相比，您的潛在數據是否具有優勢？如果不是，那麼您認為為什麼會出現這種情況？

And so in recognition that we are in a competitive commercial situation, I'll let Luke answer the final question.

因此，認識到我們正處於競爭激烈的商業形勢中，我將讓盧克回答最後一個問題。

Steve, we are encouraged, but it's happening right now. So literally, as we speak. So we'll have more news to you in Q3 of this one. Sorry, I can't tell you anything more.

史蒂夫，我們很受鼓舞，但現在就發生了。正如我們所說，字面意思是這樣。因此，我們將在本季度的第三季度向您提供更多消息。抱歉，我不能告訴你更多了。

Thanks, Luke. Well, once again, thanks, everyone, for joining us. We've been very pleased to report another excellent quarter of performance on strong sales and earnings growth, driven by new product sales, and it's been HIV and vaccines, ongoing progress in our pipeline. The approval of the world's RSV vaccine, (inaudible) and of course, upgrading guidance and with this momentum behind us, a lot of confidence in delivering our short, medium and long-term targets, and we really look forward to keeping you informed over the quarters ahead. Thanks all. Bye.

謝謝，盧克。好吧，再次感謝大家加入我們。我們非常高興地報告又一個出色的季度業績，在新產品銷售的推動下，銷售和盈利增長強勁，其中包括艾滋病毒和疫苗，以及我們管道的持續進展。世界 RSV 疫苗獲得批准（聽不清），當然還有升級指導意見，在這種勢頭的推動下，我們對實現短期、中期和長期目標充滿信心，我們非常期待隨時向您通報情況未來幾個季度。謝謝大家。再見。