純正零件 (GPC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收 62 億美元,年增 3.4%;調整後 EPS $2.10,年減 14%,符合公司預期
    • 2025 年度調整後 EPS 指引下修至 $7.50-$8(原為 $7.75-$8.25),營收成長預估下修至 1%-3%
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 持續推動定價與採購策略,帶動毛利率年增 110 個基點
      • 數位投資成效顯著,Motion 事業群電商銷售佔比達 40%,年初以來成長逾 10%
      • 積極併購(如 MPEC、Walker)與門市整合,強化美國汽車業務佈局
      • 亞太區汽車業務持續雙位數成長,零售表現優於當地同業
    • 風險:
      • 美國新關稅政策與貿易不確定性,對下半年營運帶來壓力
      • 工業與汽車市場需求疲弱,特別是大宗商品相關產業
      • SG&A 成本(薪資、租金、運費)通膨壓力持續,影響獲利能力
      • 歐洲市場持續低迷,地緣政治與通膨壓力未見明顯改善
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 全球工業事業群 Q2 銷售 23 億美元,年增約 1%,為近 12 個月首度正成長
    • Motion(工業)電商銷售佔比 40%,較 2024 年初成長逾 10%
    • 工業事業群 EBITDA 2.88 億美元,佔銷售 12.8%,年增 10 個基點
    • 全球汽車事業群 Q2 銷售年增 5%,可比銷售年增 0.5%,EBITDA 3.38 億美元,佔銷售 8.6%,年減 110 個基點
    • 美國汽車 Q2 銷售年增 4%,公司自營門市可比銷售年增約 2%,獨立門市採購年減低個位數
    • 加拿大汽車 Q2 銷售(本幣)年增約 5%,可比銷售年增約 4%
    • 歐洲汽車 Q2 銷售持平,可比銷售年減約 1%
    • 亞太汽車 Q2 銷售(本幣)年增約 13%,可比銷售年增約 5%,零售年增高個位數
  4. 財務預測
    • 2025 年營收成長預估 1%-3%
    • 2025 年毛利率預期持續擴張,但下半年增幅將低於上半年
    • 2025 年資本支出約 2.5 億美元(上半年已投入),全年營運現金流預估 11-13 億美元,自由現金流 7-9 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 獨立 NAPA 門市的庫存與銷售狀況?是否有去庫存現象?
      A: 獨立門市庫存狀況明顯改善,採購與銷售間的關聯度提升,與自營門市銷售趨勢一致,顯示營運正向發展。
    • Q: 關稅帶來的成本能否順利轉嫁?毛利率有無受益?
      A: 目前成本上升與價格轉嫁大致平衡,毛利率未見明顯淨利得,但團隊具備高度應變能力,能有效管理複雜的 SKU 與供應鏈。
    • Q: 美國汽車業務同店價格通膨與彈性假設?汽車事業 EBITDA margin 是否已重設?
      A: 下半年通膨假設較上半年略高,關稅影響以 NAPA 業務為主。汽車事業獲利短期受 SG&A 通膨壓力影響,團隊正積極推動成本結構優化,預期下半年獲利能力將改善。
    • Q: Motion 工業事業下半年成長動能與關稅不確定性影響?
      A: 工業事業自助改善動能強勁,數位投資與銷售效能提升,雖然關稅環境仍不明朗,但團隊已納入預測並持續觀察,預期下半年成長動能將逐季加速。
    • Q: 歐洲汽車業務各國表現與 NAPA 品牌推進成效?
      A: 歐洲各國表現雖有差異,但多數地區 Q2 呈現逐季改善,NAPA 品牌滲透率提升,有效協助抵禦市場疲弱。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Genuine Parts Company second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Tuesday, July 22, 2025.

    女士們、先生們,大家好。歡迎參加 Genuine Parts Company 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)此通話於 2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二錄製。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Tim Walsh, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Tim Walsh。請繼續。

  • Timothy Walsh - Senior Director of Investor Relations

    Timothy Walsh - Senior Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Genuine Parts Company's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. With me on the call today are Will Stengel, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Burt Napier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,早安。歡迎參加 Genuine Parts Company 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長威爾‧斯滕格爾 (Will Stengel) 和執行副總裁兼財務長伯特‧納皮爾 (Burt Napier)。

  • In addition to this morning's press release, a supplemental slide presentation can be found on the Investors page of the Genuine Parts Company website. Today's call is being webcast, and a replay will also be made available on the company's website after the call.

    除了今天早上的新聞稿外,您還可以在 Genuine Parts Company 網站的投資者頁面上找到補充幻燈片簡報。今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播,會議結束後,公司網站上也將提供重播。

  • Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions, the responses to which will reflect management's views as of today, July 22, 2025. If we're unable to get your questions, please contact our Investor Relations department.

    在我們準備好發言之後,電話會議將開放提問,答案將反映截至今天(2025 年 7 月 22 日)的管理觀點。如果我們無法解答您的疑問,請聯絡我們的投資者關係部門。

  • Please be advised this call may include certain non-GAAP financial measures to which may be referred to during today's discussion of our results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of these measures is provided in the earnings press release.

    請注意,本次電話會議可能包括某些非公認會計準則財務指標,在今天討論我們根據公認會計原則報告的績效時可能會提及這些指標。收益新聞稿中提供了這些措施的對帳。

  • Today's call may also involve forward-looking statements regarding the company and its businesses as defined in the Private Security Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest SEC filings, including this morning's press release. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.

    今天的電話會議也可能涉及 1995 年《私人安全訴訟改革法案》所定義的有關公司及其業務的前瞻性陳述。由於公司最新的美國證券交易委員會文件(包括今天上午的新聞稿)中描述的幾個重要因素,公司的實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Will.

    說完這些,我就把麥克風交給威爾。

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Tim. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our second-quarter 2025 earnings call. As always, I want to start by thanking our over 63,000 global GPC teammates. Our teammates are at the heart of everything we do and our team's relentless dedication and commitment to serving our customers is the core of our success.

    謝謝你,提姆。大家早安,感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。像往常一樣,我首先要感謝我們全球 63,000 多名 GPC 隊友。我們的隊友是我們所做一切的核心,我們團隊不懈的奉獻和對服務客戶的承諾是我們成功的核心。

  • Turning to our results for the second quarter. A few highlights include total GPC sales of $6.2 billion, up 3.4% versus the same period in the prior year. Gross margin expansion of 110 basis points versus the same period last year, reflecting our strategic pricing and sourcing initiatives and the ongoing benefits from acquisitions. And continued progress with our global cost initiatives, which are helping to manage our SG&A profile in an inflationary environment.

    談談我們第二季的業績。一些亮點包括 GPC 總銷售額為 62 億美元,比去年同期成長 3.4%。毛利率較去年同期擴大 110 個基點,反映了我們的策略定價和採購措施以及收購帶來的持續收益。我們的全球成本計畫不斷取得進展,這有助於在通膨環境下管理我們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 狀況。

  • Are results for the quarter reflect execution of our strategic initiatives and cost actions, partially offset by ongoing weakness in market conditions and persistent cost inflation. We're operating in an environment that is presented several challenges, including enacted tariffs in the US and ongoing trade uncertainty, along with high interest rates and a cautious end consumer.

    本季的業績是否反映了我們戰略舉措和成本行動的執行情況,但被持續疲軟的市場狀況和持續的成本通膨部分抵消。我們的經營環境面臨許多挑戰,包括美國實施的關稅和持續的貿易不確定性,以及高利率和謹慎的終端消費者。

  • Despite this, we faced the challenges head on, made prudent changes and acted with purpose, while continuing to progress our strategic priorities to enhance the business. Our diverse geographic mix, ongoing productivity and cost initiatives, along with disciplined investments we're making across the business, allowed us to close out the first half of 2025 with performance in line with our expectations.

    儘管如此,我們仍然直面挑戰,做出審慎的改變並有目的地採取行動,同時繼續推進我們的策略重點以增強業務。我們多元化的地理分佈、持續的生產力和成本舉措,以及我們在整個業務範圍內進行的嚴謹投資,使我們在 2025 年上半年的業績符合預期。

  • A key theme in 2025 has been the tariffs announced by the US administration. Tariffs did not have a significant impact in our financial results through the end of the second quarter, but we expect to see an impact in the back half of the year if current tariffs remain in place. Bert will share more details about the scenarios we considered as we work to provide our latest forward outlook.

    2025 年的一個關鍵主題是美國政府宣布的關稅。截至第二季末,關稅對我們的財務業績沒有重大影響,但如果現行關稅繼續實施,我們預計今年下半年將會看到影響。當我們努力提供最新的前瞻性展望時,伯特將分享有關我們所考慮情景的更多細節。

  • There's a significant amount of ongoing internal activity associated with managing through the tariffs. I'm proud of the way in which the global teams have rallied together to leverage our global relationships and our One GPC Team approach navigate the environment. We have a global cross-functional command center set up that meets multiple times a week to analyze and manage the changing data.

    目前正在進行的與關稅管理相關的內部活動有很多。我為全球團隊齊心協力、利用我們的全球關係和我們的「一個 GPC 團隊」方法來應對環境的方式感到自豪。我們設立了一個全球跨職能指揮中心,每週開會多次,以分析和管理不斷變化的數據。

  • Importantly, our focus in these times is to help support our customers. For example, I recently spent time in the field with Motion customers. We were with a customer showcasing a proprietary digital tariff calculator built by our technology teams that helps our customers understand their specific exposure to tariffs, and the solutions we can offer to help them problem solve.

    重要的是,我們現在的重點是幫助支持我們的客戶。例如,我最近花了一些時間與 Motion 客戶一起在現場工作。我們向一位客戶展示了由我們的技術團隊建立的專有數位關稅計算器,該計算器可幫助我們的客戶了解他們的特定關稅風險,以及我們可以提供的幫助他們解決問題的解決方案。

  • This level of transparency and support has been very well received. Our capabilities at scale, access to global resources and relationships with our strategic suppliers makes a difference for our customers in moments such as these.

    這種程度的透明度和支持受到了熱烈歡迎。我們的規模能力、全球資源獲取管道以及與策略供應商的關係在這樣的時刻為我們的客戶帶來了改變。

  • As we discussed during the April call when we offered various guidance scenarios, we'll update you today with our latest perspectives, including how tariffs might impact us through the balance of the year. Our industry demand remains driven by Break Fix customer needs, which results in an ability to pass through prices and the competitive activity in our industries remains rational.

    正如我們在 4 月電話會議上討論提供的各種指導情境一樣,今天我們將向您更新我們的最新觀點,包括關稅可能如何影響我們在今年的餘額。我們的行業需求仍然受到 Break Fix 客戶需求的驅動,從而能夠轉嫁價格,並且我們行業的競爭活動仍然保持理性。

  • The magnitude of where tariffs will ultimately land and how demand will be impacted remains fluid. That said, we remain cautiously optimistic on market improvement in the back half relative to last year but likely with a slower pacing versus when we first gave our outlook back in February, which requires us to update the outlook.

    關稅最終將達到何種程度以及需求將受到何種影響仍不確定。儘管如此,我們對下半年市場相對於去年的改善仍持謹慎樂觀的態度,但與我們 2 月首次提出展望時相比,改善速度可能會有所放緩,這需要我們更新展望。

  • Despite that, the tone of recent customer discussions has been generally positive, as many customers want to cautiously push forward despite the fluid environment. Customers are looking for value from their partners in this environment, and we're well positioned to help with leading product assortment and service solutions.

    儘管如此,最近與客戶的討論基調總體上是積極的,因為許多客戶希望在動蕩的環境中謹慎地推進。在這種環境下,客戶希望從合作夥伴那裡獲得價值,而我們有能力透過領先的產品組合和服務解決方案提供協助。

  • As we continue to operate in this dynamic environment, we'll stay focused on controlling what we can control; staying agile to serve our customers while focusing on the basics, investing with discipline and executing initiatives at pace to enhance our operations and drive long-term value for our stakeholders.

    隨著我們繼續在這種動態環境中運營,我們將繼續專注於控制我們能夠控制的事情;保持敏捷地為客戶服務,同時專注於基本業務,嚴格投資并快速執行計劃,以增強我們的運營並為我們的利益相關者創造長期價值。

  • Turning to our results by business segment. During the second quarter, total sales for global industrial were $2.3 billion, in approximately 1% increase versus the same period in the prior year with comparable sales essentially flat. The second quarter represented the first quarter of sales growth for the industrial segment in the last 12 months.

    按業務部門劃分我們的業績。第二季度,全球工業總銷售額為 23 億美元,比去年同期成長約 1%,可比銷售額基本持平。第二季度是過去 12 個月內工業部門銷售額首次成長的季度。

  • Looking at the performance across our end markets, we saw growth in 5 of our 14 and markets, which is up from 3 in the first quarter, and with strength and pulp and paper, aggregate and cement and food products. This growth was offset by softer demand in markets with heavy exposure to global commodities like iron and steel, automotive, and oil and gas.

    從我們終端市場的表現來看,我們的 14 個市場中有 5 個實現了成長,高於第一季的 3 個,包括強度和紙漿和造紙、骨材和水泥以及食品產品。但這一成長被鋼鐵、汽車、石油和天然氣等全球大宗商品市場需求疲軟所抵消。

  • Our core MRO and maintenance business, which accounts for approximately 80% of motion sales was up low single digits during the quarter with continued strength with our national account customers. The remaining 20% of Motion sales, which originates from more capital-intensive projects, including our value-added service offerings like fluid power and automation, was down low-single digits during the quarter as customers continue to selectively defer orders.

    我們的核心 MRO 和維護業務約佔運動銷售額的 80%,在本季度實現了低個位數成長,並且我們的全國客戶繼續保持強勁成長。Motion 剩餘 20% 的銷售額來自資本密集型項目,包括流體動力和自動化等增值服務產品,由於客戶繼續有選擇地推遲訂單,本季度銷售額下降了個位數。

  • However, our current value-added solutions backlog has improved versus last year and has been showing positive momentum year to date. As it relates to other general market data, we were encouraged at the start of the year as industrial activity metrics like industrial production and PMI were trending in the right direction. Unfortunately, it's the trade and tariff uncertainty picked up in March through the second quarter, we saw the PMI sentiment metric revert below 50 and stay there for the last four months.

    然而,我們目前的增值解決方案積壓訂單與去年相比有所改善,並且今年迄今一直呈現積極勢頭。與其他一般市場數據相關,我們在年初受到鼓舞,因為工業生產和 PMI 等工業活動指標正朝著正確的方向發展。不幸的是,由於 3 月至第二季貿易和關稅的不確定性加劇,我們看到 PMI 景氣指數回落至 50 以下,並在過去四個月保持在該水準。

  • As we've shared before, we remain bullish on the outlook for motion once the industrial economy returns as history shows that the industrial economy experiences sustained periods of growth following a contraction cycle. Despite the sluggish market, new industrial opportunities continue to arise as trade policies evolve, including, for example, data centers, semiconductors, power generation and mining.

    正如我們之前所分享的,我們仍然看好工業經濟復甦後的前景,因為歷史表明,工業經濟在收縮週期之後會經歷持續的增長期。儘管市場低迷,但隨著貿易政策的發展,新的產業機會不斷湧現,例如資料中心、半導體、發電和採礦業。

  • We're also pleased to see continued progress with returns from our digital investments as we work to create a seamless, embedded and personalized digital experience for our diverse customer base. E-commerce, which mostly represents our customer digital integrations as well as motion.com continues to deliver outsized growth driven by specific data and product enhancements that leveraged GenAI. Today, e-commerce sales at Motion are 40% of sales, up over 10% versus the start of 2024.

    我們也很高興看到我們的數位投資回報不斷取得進展,我們致力於為多樣化的客戶群創造無縫、嵌入式和個人化的數位體驗。電子商務主要代表我們的客戶數位整合以及 motion.com,在利用 GenAI 的特定數據和產品增強的推動下,繼續實現超額成長。如今,Motion 的電子商務銷售額佔銷售額的 40%,比 2024 年初成長了 10% 以上。

  • Switching to Industrial profit. During the second quarter, segment EBITDA was approximately $288 million and 12.8% of sales, representing a 10-basis point increase from the same period last year. The Motion team continues to execute pricing and sourcing initiatives, as well as proactively managing costs with impressive discipline in this low growth environment.

    轉向工業利潤。第二季度,分部 EBITDA 約為 2.88 億美元,佔銷售額的 12.8%,比去年同期增加了 10 個基點。Motion 團隊繼續執行定價和採購計劃,並在這種低成長環境下以令人印象深刻的紀律主動管理成本。

  • Turning the Global Automotive segment. Sales in the second quarter increased 5.0% with comparable sales growth of approximately 0.5%. Global Automotive segment EBITDA on the second quarter was $338 million, which was 8.6% of sales representing a 110-basis point decrease from the same period last year. Our second quarter results for the Global Automotive segment reflect inflationary pressures from higher costs in salaries and wages, rent and freight in each of our geographies.

    轉變全球汽車領域。第二季銷售額成長 5.0%,可比銷售額成長約 0.5%。全球汽車部門第二季的 EBITDA 為 3.38 億美元,佔銷售額的 8.6%,比去年同期下降 110 個基點。我們全球汽車部門第二季的業績反映了我們各地區的薪資、租金和運費成本上漲所帶來的通膨壓力。

  • Before we turn to our results by geography and our Automotive business, we wanted to touch on an important leadership transition we announced during the quarter in our North America Automotive business. On behalf of the entire GPC team, we'd like to congratulate Randy Breaux on his well-deserved planned retirement. Randy has been a key leader at GPC for 14 years and played a vital role in growing and improving our industrial business before coming over to lead our US Automotive business in June of 2023 as part of an expanded role.

    在我們討論按地區和汽車業務劃分的業績之前,我們想談談本季我們在北美汽車業務中宣布的一項重要領導層變動。我們代表整個 GPC 團隊祝賀 Randy Breaux 順利按計劃退休。蘭迪 (Randy) 擔任 GPC 關鍵領導已有 14 年,在發展和改善我們的工業業務方面發揮了至關重要的作用,之後於 2023 年 6 月作為擴展職責的一部分來領導我們的美國汽車業務。

  • We sincerely thank Randy for his outstanding contributions and leadership during his tenure at GPC. With Randy's retirement, we also want to congratulate Alain Masse on his promotion from President of our Canadian Automotive business to the newly created role of President, North America Automotive, effective August 1.

    我們真誠感謝 Randy 在 GPC 任職期間的傑出貢獻和領導能力。隨著蘭迪的退休,我們也要祝賀阿蘭馬斯從我們加拿大汽車業務總裁晉升為新設立的北美汽車業務總裁,該職位將於 8 月 1 日生效。

  • Alain brings over 14 years of progressive leadership experience within GPC and a deep understanding of the automotive aftermarket and NAPA operating model. His proven leadership and success in driving performance, combined with this relevant industry experience and established relationships will help build on the momentum in our North America Automotive business.

    Alain 在 GPC 擁有超過 14 年的領導經驗,對汽車售後市場和 NAPA 營運模式有著深刻的理解。他已證明的領導能力和在推動業績方面的成功,加上相關的行業經驗和建立的關係,將有助於鞏固我們北美汽車業務的發展勢頭。

  • Now, let's turn to our Automotive business performance by geography. Starting in the US, total sales for the second quarter were up 4% with comparable sales essentially flat. Comparable sales for our company's owned stores were up approximately 2% while independent purchases were down low-single digits. Sentiment with independent owners is showing signs of improvement but still reflects ongoing pressure many small businesses are feeling from high interest rates and an uncertain macroenvironment.

    現在,讓我們來看看按地區劃分的汽車業務表現。從美國開始,第二季的總銷售額成長了 4%,而可比銷售額基本上持平。我們公司自有商店的可比銷售額成長了約 2%,而獨立購買量則下降了個位數。獨立業主的情緒正在顯示出改善的跡象,但仍反映出許多小型企業因高利率和不確定的宏觀環境而感受到的持續壓力。

  • [Sales out] at both company-owned and independently owned stores improved sequentially versus the first quarter. By customer type, total sales to our commercial customers were up low single digits while sales to our retail customers decrease mid-single digits. Within commercial, all four of our customer segments were positive, with notable strength and sequential improvement in Auto Care and Major Accounts.

    與第一季相比,公司自營店和獨立店的[銷售額]均有所提升。以客戶類型劃分,我們對商業客戶的總銷售額成長了低個位數,而對零售客戶的銷售額則下降了中位數個位數。在商業領域,我們的四個客戶群均表現積極,其中汽車保養和大客戶表現強勁且連續改善。

  • Looking at our product categories at a high level, we've generally seen consistent performance over the last four quarters with non-discretionary repair categories being the strongest and upload them into single digits. Maintenance and service categories, flat to slightly up in the second quarter. This quarter, discretionary categories were flat, improved from last quarter, driven by specific category initiatives in our tool and equipment offering.

    從高層次來看我們的產品類別,我們總體上看到過去四個季度表現穩定,其中非自由裁量維修類別表現最強勁,並將其上傳至個位數。維護和服務類別在第二季度持平或略有上升。本季度,可自由支配類別持平,較上一季度有所改善,這得益於我們工具和設備產品中特定類別舉措的推動。

  • The US Automotive team is actively managing tariffs. Our total purchases exposure to China is approximately 20% at US Automotive, which we believe is in line with or slightly below our competitors of scale. Our proactive efforts to strategically diversify our supply chain following the pandemic has served us well. Today, we continue to have active engagement with suppliers, but the number of inbound conversations to discuss tariffs has reduced versus April and May levels, and the magnitude of the cost increases has also moderated.

    美國汽車團隊正在積極管理關稅。我們在美國汽車產業的總採購量中,對中國的佔比約為 20%,我們認為這一比例與我們的競爭對手持平或略低。疫情爆發後,我們積極努力實現供應鏈策略多元化,並且取得了良好的效果。今天,我們繼續與供應商積極接觸,但討論關稅的來電對話數量與 4 月和 5 月的水平相比有所減少,成本上漲的幅度也有所緩和。

  • Our scale and analytics positions us well versus smaller competitors to react to and negotiate with a global manufacturing base. In fact, we recently hosted a supplier conference in China with all GPC Automotive businesses to showcase the diversity and strength of our footprint.

    我們的規模和分析能力使我們比規模較小的競爭對手更有能力對全球製造基地做出反應並進行談判。事實上,我們最近在中國與所有 GPC 汽車業務部門聯合舉辦了一場供應商會議,以展示我們業務的多樣性和實力。

  • Additionally, during the second quarter, we acquired 32 stores from independent owners and competitors in the US. These stores along with the 44 stores acquired in the first quarter, strengthen our footprint and strategic priority markets. We continue to make great progress with the integration of the stores we acquired last year, including the acquisitions of MPEC and Walker.

    此外,第二季度,我們從美國的獨立業主和競爭對手手中收購了 32 家商店。這些門市加上第一季收購的 44 家門市,增強了我們的業務範圍和策略重點市場。我們在整合去年收購的商店方面繼續取得重大進展,包括對 MPEC 和 Walker 的收購。

  • In May, we hit the one-year anniversary of the MPEC acquisition, and our integration and synergy capture are on track. We've now onboarded 100% of the stores to our systems and are focused on driving growth and operational improvements. MPEC is fully rolled into our comparable sales figure beginning in May and Walker will fully roll into the comparable sales figure in August. Our progress with Walker is also on track operationally and financially.

    今年 5 月,我們迎來了收購 MPEC 一週年,我們的整合和協同效應正在步入正軌。我們現在已經將所有商店納入我們的系統,並專注於推動成長和營運改善。從 5 月開始,MPEC 將全面納入我們的可比較銷售額數據,而 Walker 將於 8 月全面納入可比較銷售額數據。我們與 Walker 的合作在營運和財務方面也進展順利。

  • Turning to Canada. Total sales increased approximately 5% in local currency versus the same period last year, with comparable sales increasing approximately 4%. Both our automotive and heavy-duty businesses are performing well with heavy-duty outperforming in the quarter.

    轉向加拿大。以當地貨幣計算,總銷售額與去年同期相比增長了約 5%,可比銷售額增長了約 4%。我們的汽車業務和重型業務均表現良好,其中重型業務在本季表現出色。

  • In addition, several of our investments in Canada, including the new distribution center in Mississauga, and the micro market prioritization initiative are driving results ahead of our expectations. We've seen differentiated growth in the local market as a result of these targeted investments. Our Canada team is continuing to outperform the market despite an ongoing soft macro environment.

    此外,我們在加拿大的幾項投資,包括密西沙加的新配送中心和微型市場優先計劃,正在推動業績超出我們的預期。由於這些有針對性的投資,我們看到了當地市場的差異化成長。儘管宏觀環境持續疲軟,但我們的加拿大團隊的表現仍優於市場。

  • In Europe, total sales were flat in local currency with comparable sales down approximately 1%. The team in Europe is working aggressively to navigate a muted market, payroll and rent inflationary pressures and a fluid geopolitical backdrop. Despite this, the expansion of the NAPA brand and wins with key accounts continues to perform well and deliver performance in line or better than market.

    在歐洲,以當地貨幣計算的總銷售額持平,可比銷售額下降約 1%。歐洲團隊正在積極應對低迷的市場、工資和租金通膨壓力以及不穩定的地緣政治背景。儘管如此,NAPA 品牌的擴張和大客戶的贏得仍然表現良好,業績與市場持平或優於市場。

  • Priority areas of focus in Europe continue to be profitable growth, pricing and sourcing initiatives, cost reduction programs and the delivery of strategic projects. Rounding out Automotive, our team in Asia Pac continues to take market share and delivered another quarter of double-digit growth in local currency, driven by both organic initiatives and contributions from recent acquisitions.

    歐洲的重點關注領域仍然是獲利成長、定價和採購舉措、成本削減計劃以及戰略項目的交付。在汽車領域,我們的亞太團隊繼續佔領市場份額,並在有機舉措和近期收購的推動下,以當地貨幣計算又實現了兩位數的季度增長。

  • Total sales increased approximately 13% with comparable sales growth of approximately 5%. Both our trade and retail businesses put up strong numbers during the quarter, with retail continuing a strong run of standout performance. Retail sales were again up high single digits in the quarter and showing strength relative to the competition in all other local retail segments. Our in-flight initiatives are working well, and the local team is energized to build on the strong momentum.

    總銷售額成長約 13%,可比銷售額成長約 5%。本季度,我們的貿易和零售業務均取得了強勁的業績,其中零售業繼續保持強勁的出色表現。本季零售額再次實現高個位數成長,相對於所有其他本地零售領域的競爭,顯示出強勁勢頭。我們的飛行計劃進展順利,當地團隊充滿活力,並繼續保持強勁勢頭。

  • In summary, our first half results were in line with our expectations despite a dynamic environment. As we start the second half of the year, we're focused on controlling what we can control while proactively navigating the external environment. We're cautiously hopeful given multiple green shoots of encouraging data points but are appropriately updating our near-term outlook given the uncertainty.

    總而言之,儘管環境充滿動態,但我們上半年的業績符合預期。進入下半年,我們將專注於控制我們能夠控制的事情,同時積極應對外部環境。鑑於多個令人鼓舞的數據點,我們持謹慎樂觀的態度,但考慮到不確定性,我們正在適當地更新我們的近期展望。

  • If we take a step back for a moment, we operate in two highly fragmented markets, attractive industries that are Break Fix in nature. Our diversified geographic presence and balanced business portfolio provide meaningful differentiation. Our scale and strong global partnerships continue to offer advantages relative to many smaller competitors as we can offer customers differentiated solutions.

    如果我們退一步來看,我們在兩個高度分散的市場中運營,這兩個市場本質上都是具有吸引力且具有突破性的行業。我們多元化的地理分佈和均衡的業務組合提供了有意義的差異化。我們的規模和強大的全球合作夥伴關係繼續為我們提供相對於許多較小競爭對手的優勢,因為我們可以為客戶提供差異化的解決方案。

  • The near and long-term fundamentals of our markets are attractive, and we remain intensely focused on executing our global strategic priorities to create shareholder value. In closing, I want to thank our shareholders, customers and business partners for their trust and ongoing support. And importantly, I extend my appreciation again to our GPC teammates for your hard work and dedication to our customers.

    我們市場的近期和長期基本面都很有吸引力,我們將繼續專注於執行我們的全球策略重點,以創造股東價值。最後,我要感謝我們的股東、客戶和業務夥伴的信任和持續支持。重要的是,我再次向我們的 GPC 隊友表示感謝,感謝你們的辛勤工作和對客戶的奉獻。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Bert.

    我現在將電話轉給伯特。

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Will, and thanks to everyone for joining the call. Our second quarter performance was in line with our expectations as we offset continued weakness in market conditions and tariff uncertainty with execution of our strategic initiatives and cost actions. Our discussion of our second quarter performance and outlook will focus primarily on adjusted results which exclude the non-recurring costs related to our global restructuring program and costs related to the acquisition of MPEC and Walker.

    謝謝,威爾,也謝謝大家參加電話會議。我們第二季的業績符合預期,因為我們透過執行策略性措施和成本行動抵消了持續疲軟的市場狀況和關稅不確定性。我們對第二季業績和展望的討論將主要集中於調整後的結果,其中不包括與我們的全球重組計劃相關的非經常性成本以及與收購 MPEC 和 Walker 相關的成本。

  • During the second quarter, these costs totaled $46 million of pretax adjustments, or $37 million after tax. As expected, earnings were down in the second quarter as our profitability was negatively impacted by lower pension income and higher depreciation and interest expense which cumulatively totaled a $0.29 negative EPS impact.

    第二季度,這些成本總計為稅前調整 4,600 萬美元,稅後調整 3,700 萬美元。正如預期的那樣,第二季度收益下降,因為我們的盈利能力受到退休金收入減少以及折舊和利息支出增加的負面影響,累計對每股收益產生 0.29 美元的負面影響。

  • As we shared in April, we expected these factors to drive second quarter earnings down by 15% to 20% and we finished the quarter with an adjusted EPS of $2.10, down 14% to prior year. Our results for the quarter include an immaterial benefit from the impacts of the newly enacted tariffs. I'll provide some additional comments around tariffs in connection with our outlook.

    正如我們在 4 月所分享的,我們預計這些因素將導致第二季度收益下降 15% 至 20%,而本季末我們的調整後每股收益為 2.10 美元,較上年同期下降 14%。我們本季的業績包括新頒布關稅的影響所帶來的非物質利益。我將結合我們的展望,就關稅問題提供一些補充評論。

  • Now let's turn to the details of the quarter, starting with sales. Total GPC sales increased 3.4% in the second quarter, which included a benefit from acquisitions of 260 basis points, a 20-basis point improvement in comparable sales and a foreign currency tailwind of 40 basis points.

    現在讓我們來看看本季的細節,從銷售額開始。第二季度,GPC 總銷售額成長了 3.4%,其中包括收購帶來的 260 個基點的成長、可比較銷售額的 20 個基點的成長以及外匯帶來的 40 個基點的順風。

  • Inflation and pricing was a little more than 1%, including the impact from tariffs. Notably, while PMI remained in contractionary territory throughout the quarter, Industrial segment sales increased approximately 1% year-over-year. Our gross margin was 37.7% in the second quarter, an increase of 110 basis points from last year.

    通貨膨脹和定價略高於 1%,其中包括關稅的影響。值得注意的是,儘管 PMI 整個季度仍處於收縮區間,但工業部門銷售額年增約 1%。我們第二季的毛利率為37.7%,比去年同期增加了110個基點。

  • The improvement in our gross margin was driven by the ongoing execution of our sourcing and pricing initiatives, along with the continued benefit of acquisitions. Our one-year anniversary of the MPEC acquisition occurred on May 1 and we will hit the one-year anniversary of the Walker acquisition on August 1. As a result, we would expect the rate of gross margin expansion in the second half of 2025 to be below what we reported in the first half.

    我們的毛利率提高得益於我們持續執行的採購和定價計劃,以及收購的持續效益。5 月 1 日是我們收購 MPEC 的一周年紀念日,8 月 1 日將是收購 Walker 的一周年紀念日。因此,我們預計 2025 年下半年的毛利率擴張率將低於上半年報告的水平。

  • Our adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales for the second quarter was 28.7%, up 150 basis points year-over-year with the rate of deleverage continuing to improve sequentially. On an adjusted basis, SG&A grew in absolute dollars by approximately $145 million, including nearly $85 million in impacts from acquisitions and foreign currency.

    我們第二季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比為 28.7%,較去年同期成長 150 個基點,去槓桿率持續較上季改善。經調整後,銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A)絕對金額成長約 1.45 億美元,其中包括收購和外幣影響的近 8,500 萬美元。

  • The SG&A impact of our M&A activity will diminish over time as we anniversary the remaining acquisitions and continue to realize the anticipated synergies from the integration of these businesses. Our core SG&A grew $60 million in the quarter or approximately 3.5% as we continue to manage the rate of growth in our core expenses.

    隨著我們完成剩餘收購並持續實現這些業務整合預期的綜效,我們的併購活動對銷售、一般及行政費用的影響將隨著時間的推移而減少。由於我們持續管理核心支出的成長率,我們的核心銷售、一般及行政費用在本季成長了 6,000 萬美元,增幅約為 3.5%。

  • Within our core SG&A, the increase was primarily driven by salaries and wages associated with our annual merit adjustments for our teams, which generally occur on April 1 as well as higher year-over-year incentive compensation costs as our programs are reinstated to target levels. In addition, increases to rent expense as renewals occur in higher rate environments and higher freight expenses as we improve service to our customers, drove core SG&A increases in the quarter.

    在我們的核心銷售、一般及行政費用中,成長主要是由於與我們的團隊年度績效調整相關的工資和薪金(通常在 4 月 1 日進行),以及隨著我們的計劃恢復到目標水平而導致的同比激勵薪酬成本上升。此外,由於在較高費率環境下續約導致租金費用增加,以及我們改善客戶服務導致運費增加,推動了本季核心銷售、一般及行政費用增加。

  • We continue to work to improve our long-term cost structure, aligning to market realities and ultimately getting to our expectation for leverage in SG&A. Our results for the quarter include the benefit of the actions we are taking associated with our restructuring activities. During the quarter, we incurred restructuring costs of $45 million and realized approximately $33 million of cost savings or a benefit of $0.18 per share. Our global restructuring and cost actions are progressing well, and we remain on track to deliver our 2025 targets.

    我們將繼續努力改善我們的長期成本結構,以適應市場現實,並最終實現我們對銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿的預期。我們本季的業績反映了我們採取的與重組活動相關的行動所帶來的好處。本季度,我們發生了 4,500 萬美元的重組成本,並實現了約 3,300 萬美元的成本節約或每股 0.18 美元的收益。我們的全球重組和成本行動進展順利,我們仍有望實現 2025 年的目標。

  • For the quarter, total adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.9%, down 60 basis points year-over-year. While gross margin improved in the quarter, profitability declined due to headwinds from inflation-driven cost increases in salaries and wages, rent and freight expenses as our inflation in SG&A continues to outpace the benefit of inflation in our sales by approximately 100 basis points.

    本季度,調整後 EBITDA 總利潤率為 8.9%,年減 60 個基點。雖然本季毛利率有所提高,但由於通貨膨脹導致工資、租金和運費等成本增加,盈利能力下降,因為我們的銷售、一般和行政費用的通貨膨脹率繼續超過銷售額通貨膨脹帶來的收益約 100 個基點。

  • Turning to our cash flows. For the first six months of 2025, we generated approximately $170 million in cash from operations. The reduction in our operating cash flows year over year is partially driven by lower earnings in the first half of 2025 and accelerated tax payments versus 2024. The remaining decrease is driven by a tough comparison to the first half of 2024 in connection with the inventory investments we were making at NAPA a year ago, including the associated build of accounts payable. These did not repeat in 2025 as we return to more normal replenishment levels.

    轉向我們的現金流。2025 年前六個月,我們從營運中產生了約 1.7 億美元的現金。我們的經營現金流年減的部分原因是 2025 年上半年收益下降以及與 2024 年相比納稅增加。剩餘的下降是由於與 2024 年上半年相比,我們一年前在 NAPA 進行的庫存投資(包括相關的應付帳款建構)有所下降。隨著我們恢復到更正常的補貨水平,這種情況在 2025 年不會重演。

  • As you recall, in 2024, we were investing in inventory at NAPA following the termination of two key suppliers in late 2023, and an overall program to improve inventory availability. In 2025, we have invested approximately $250 million back into the business in the form of capital expenditures as we continue to invest in our supply chain and IT systems.

    您還記得,在 2023 年底與兩家主要供應商終止合作後,我們在 2024 年對 NAPA 的庫存進行了投資,並製定了一項總體計劃來提高庫存可用性。2025 年,我們將繼續投資供應鏈和 IT 系統,並以資本支出的形式向業務重新投資約 2.5 億美元。

  • In addition, we have invested $112 million year-to-date in the form of strategic acquisitions. We continue to make good progress on our long-term strategic investments to profitably grow our business with discipline and a strong focus on returns from these investments. And finally, through the first six months of 2025, we have returned $277 million to our shareholders through our dividend.

    此外,今年迄今為止,我們已以策略性收購的形式投資了 1.12 億美元。我們在長期策略投資方面持續取得良好進展,以紀律嚴明的方式實現業務獲利性成長,並高度重視這些投資的回報。最後,到 2025 年上半年,我們已透過股利向股東返還了 2.77 億美元。

  • Now turning to our outlook. As we detailed in our press release this morning, we are revising our 2025 outlook to include the impact of tariffs in place as well as our updated view on market conditions for the second half of the year. For the full year, we expect diluted earnings per share, which includes the expenses related to our restructuring efforts to be in the range of $6.55 to $7.05 compared to our previous outlook of $6.95 to $7.45. We expect adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in a range of $7.50 to $8 compared to the previous outlook range of $7.75 to $8.25.

    現在轉向我們的展望。正如我們在今天早上的新聞稿中詳細說明的那樣,我們正在修改 2025 年的展望,以包括現行關稅的影響以及我們對下半年市場狀況的最新看法。我們預計全年稀釋每股收益(包含重組相關費用)將在 6.55 美元至 7.05 美元之間,而此前預期為 6.95 美元至 7.45 美元。我們預計調整後稀釋每股收益將在 7.50 美元至 8 美元之間,而此前預期為 7.75 美元至 8.25 美元。

  • In April, we shared views on potential downsides to our 2025 outlook with respect to the tariff environment, including our view around the timing of the resolution of the 90-day pause announced by the US administration.

    今年 4 月,我們分享了對 2025 年關稅環境前景的潛在負面影響的看法,包括我們對美國政府宣布的 90 天暫停期解決時間的看法。

  • As a reminder, with respect to the pause, our downside view was anchored on the premise that if the tariff situation was not resolved during the pause, market and customer demand in the quarter would be impacted and the momentum we needed to drive our expectations for a more robust second half would be negatively impacted. Unfortunately, that downside scenario played out as we outlined, and is the principal driver of our revised expectations for 2025.

    提醒一下,關於暫停,我們的下行觀點是基於這樣的前提:如果在暫停期間關稅問題沒有得到解決,本季度的市場和客戶需求將受到影響,而我們推動下半年更強勁預期所需的動力將受到負面影響。不幸的是,這種不利情境正如我們所概述的那樣發生了,也是我們修改 2025 年預期的主要原因。

  • Our revised guidance for 2025 reflects moderated growth expectations for our auto and industrial businesses for the second half, lowering our growth rates in each business by approximately 100 basis points for the year. Our revised view on growth is further supported by current PMI readings, which began 2025 above 50 and now remain in contractionary territory below 50 as we begin the third quarter.

    我們對 2025 年的修訂指引反映了我們對下半年汽車和工業業務成長預期的放緩,導致全年每項業務的成長率下調約 100 個基點。目前 PMI 數據進一步支持了我們對成長的修正觀點,2025 年初 PMI 數據高於 50,而到第三季初,仍處於 50 以下的收縮區域。

  • In addition to moderating growth expectations, we've updated our guidance to include our estimate of the impacts of the current tariff environment. For the remainder of 2025, our revenue growth includes a low single-digit pricing benefit, and our cost of goods sold includes a low single-digit cost increase. In total, our assumptions related to tariffs produced a slight benefit to our expected results for the second half. However, did not offset the revisions we made to our market condition assumptions I just outlined.

    除了調整成長預期外,我們還更新了指導方針,將對當前關稅環境影響的估計納入其中。在 2025 年剩餘時間內,我們的營收成長包括低個位數的定價收益,我們的銷售成本包括低個位數的成本成長。總體而言,我們與關稅相關的假設對我們預期的下半年業績產生了輕微的好處。然而,並沒有抵消我們對我剛才概述的市場狀況假設所做的修改。

  • As we evaluated the numerous implications of the tariffs on our business, we consider the following factors; impact to our revenue, including the pace and timing of potential same SKU price adjustments as well as overall market conditions and fluctuations in underlying demand for parts and services; increases in product costs as we continue to engage with our supplier partners; adjustments to our supply chains, including operational impacts with inventory availability and suitable substitutes; as well as higher freight costs associated with movement of goods; inflationary cost increases in SG&A as the tariffs have the potential to drive higher salaries, wages and rent; and interest in foreign currency rates.

    在評估關稅對我們業務的諸多影響時,我們考慮了以下因素:對我們收入的影響,包括潛在相同 SKU 價格調整的速度和時間,以及整體市場條件和零件和服務潛在需求的波動;隨著我們繼續與供應商合作夥伴合作,產品成本增加;對我們供應鏈的調整,包括庫存可用性和合適替代品對營運成本的影響以及與貨物運輸費用相關的工資和工資和成本(SG&A) 的通膨成本增加;以及對外幣匯率的興趣。

  • As we await greater clarity on the tariff and trade environment, let me share with you three things that we'll be watching closely as we consider our expectations for the remainder of 2025. First, the breadth and magnitude of tariffs. As evidenced from the new cycle in July, this is still a very fluid environment. We have factored in the tariffs that are currently in place, but any significant changes to the breadth or magnitude could have a further impact on our outlook.

    在我們等待關稅和貿易環境更加明朗之際,讓我與大家分享三件我們將密切關注的事情,因為我們將考慮對 2025 年剩餘時間的預期。第一,關稅的廣度和幅度。從七月的新周期可以看出,這仍然是一個非常不穩定的環境。我們已經將目前實施的關稅考慮在內,但關稅範圍或幅度的任何重大變化都可能對我們的前景產生進一步影響。

  • Second, any evidence of demand destruction. While we have not seen significant signs of demand destruction at this point, as tariffs continue to auger into the broader economy, we will be watching closely for any change in customer behavior.

    第二,任何需求被破壞的證據。雖然我們目前還沒有看到需求破壞的明顯跡象,但隨著關稅繼續對更廣泛的經濟產生影響,我們將密切關注客戶行為的任何變化。

  • And finally, inflation and costs. Through the second quarter, we have not seen a material change in the levels of expected cost inflation. But as tariffs continue to impact the economy more broadly, we will continue to watch inflation in our costs. I'd like to make a few additional comments regarding our outlook, starting with the year-over-year headwinds.

    最後是通貨膨脹和成本。截至第二季度,我們尚未看到預期成本通膨水準發生實質變化。但隨著關稅持續對經濟產生更廣泛的影響,我們將繼續關注成本通膨。我想就我們的前景發表一些補充評論,首先是同比逆風。

  • On slide 11 of our earnings presentation, we've included an illustration of some key drivers impacting our 2025 outlook. Recall that our outlook includes an expected headwind from a loss of pension income as well as higher depreciation and interest expense. Collectively, these headwinds produce approximately $1 of EPS headwind in 2025 when compared to 2024.

    在我們的收益報告的第 11 張幻燈片中,我們說明了影響我們 2025 年展望的一些關鍵驅動因素。回想一下,我們的前景包括退休金收入損失以及更高的折舊和利息支出所帶來的預期阻力。總體而言,與 2024 年相比,這些不利因素將在 2025 年產生約 1 美元的每股盈餘不利影響。

  • Our outlook assumes foreign currency rates at current levels. Our outlook excludes the previously announced one-time, non-cash charge we expect to record when our US pension plan termination settles expected for late 2025 or early 2026. And finally, I would like to provide some color regarding our expectations for the third quarter.

    我們的展望假設外匯匯率維持在目前水準。我們的展望不包括先前宣布的一次性非現金費用,預計將於 2025 年底或 2026 年初在美國退休金計畫終止結算時記錄。最後,我想就我們對第三季的預期提供一些資訊。

  • July sales trends are off to a solid start and we have not seen any notable changes in demand to begin the quarter. However, the cumulative effect of broad-based tariffs on demand remains a risk. For the third quarter, we expect adjusted earnings to be up in a range of 5% to 10% relative to prior year. With that, our revised guidance assumes total GPC sales growth in the range of 1% to 3% for 2025. Our outlook assumes that the market growth will be roughly flat and that the benefit from inflation will be approximately 2%.

    七月份的銷售趨勢開局良好,我們在本季初沒有看到需求有任何顯著變化。然而,大範圍關稅對需求的累積效應仍存在風險。對於第三季度,我們預計調整後的收益將比去年同期成長 5% 至 10%。據此,我們修訂後的指引假設 2025 年 GPC 總銷售額成長率將在 1% 至 3% 之間。我們的展望是假設市場成長將大致持平,通膨帶來的好處約為 2%。

  • It also assumes the benefit of M&A carryover and about 1% point of growth from our strategic initiatives. These benefits are partially offset by the one less day in the first quarter of 2025. Our assumptions for gross margin expansion and SG&A deleverage remain unchanged from our previous guidance.

    它還假設併購結轉帶來的好處以及我們策略性舉措帶來的約 1% 的成長點。這些好處被 2025 年第一季減少的一天部分抵消。我們對毛利率擴張和銷售、一般及行政費用去槓桿的假設與先前的指導保持不變。

  • For 2025, we expect to incur restructuring expenses in the range of $180 million to $210 million, up $30 million from the midpoint of our previous outlook as we expand these activities in light of continued market weakness. The additional actions provide a slight improvement to the expected benefits in 2025, up $10 million from the midpoint of our previous expectations and are included in our revised outlook.

    到 2025 年,我們預計重組費用將在 1.8 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間,比我們先前預測的中位數高出 3,000 萬美元,因為我們在市場持續疲軟的情況下擴大了這些活動。這些額外行動略微提高了 2025 年的預期收益,比我們先前預期的中位數高出 1,000 萬美元,並已納入我們修訂後的展望中。

  • When fully annualized in 2026, we expect our 2024 and 2025 restructuring efforts and cost actions, including the new actions implemented for the second half of 2025 and to deliver over $200 million of cost savings. By business segment, we are guiding to the following: 1.5% to 3.5% total sales growth for the Automotive segment, with comparable sales growth flat to slightly positive. We expect the Automotive segment EBITDA margin to be flat to slightly down from last year.

    當 2026 年完全年化時,我們預計 2024 年和 2025 年的重組工作和成本行動(包括 2025 年下半年實施的新行動)將節省超過 2 億美元的成本。按業務部門劃分,我們預期:汽車部門總銷售額成長 1.5% 至 3.5%,可比銷售額成長持平或略有成長。我們預計汽車部門的 EBITDA 利潤率將與去年持平或略有下降。

  • And for the Industrial segment, we expect total sales growth of 1% to 3% with comparable sales growth in the flat to 2% range. We expect Global Industrial segment EBITDA margin to expand by approximately 20 to 40 basis points year-over-year.

    對於工業部門,我們預計總銷售額將成長 1% 至 3%,而可比銷售額成長率將在持平至 2% 之間。我們預計全球工業部門 EBITDA 利潤率將年增約 20 至 40 個基點。

  • Finally, we now expect to generate cash from operations in a range of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion and free cash flow of $700 million to $900 million, down from our previous outlook. The reduction in our cash flow forecast for 2025 is a result of our revised earnings guidance for the year as well as the increase in onetime costs associated with our restructuring program which drives a further benefit in 2025 and 2026.

    最後,我們現在預計營運現金流將在 11 億美元至 13 億美元之間,自由現金流將在 7 億至 9 億美元之間,低於我們先前的預期。我們對 2025 年現金流預測的下調是由於我們修改了當年的獲利預測,以及與重組計畫相關的一次性成本的增加,這將在 2025 年和 2026 年帶來進一步的收益。

  • In closing, the external environment remains complex with the tariff landscape driving heightened uncertainty across many prisms. Our teams are doing a remarkable job working with our vendors and customers to navigate the tariff environment. We are confident our teams have the capabilities and resources they need to manage the business through these changes.

    最後,外部環境仍然複雜,關稅格局在許多方面加劇了不確定性。我們的團隊正在與供應商和客戶合作,共同應對關稅環境,做得非常出色。我們相信,我們的團隊擁有在這些變化中管理業務所需的能力和資源。

  • As we look ahead to the remainder of the year, we remain confident in the underlying fundamentals of our businesses and the strategic investments we are making to improve our position for the long term. Our near-term focus remains on operating with agility and discipline while we continue to serve our customers around the world.

    展望今年剩餘時間,我們仍然對我們業務的基本面以及為長期改善地位而進行的策略投資充滿信心。我們近期的重點仍然是靈活、規範地運營,同時繼續為全球客戶提供服務。

  • Thank you, and we will now turn it back to the operator for your questions.

    謝謝,現在我們將把問題轉回給接線生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Bret Jordan, Jefferies.

    布雷特·喬丹,傑富瑞。

  • Bret Jordan - Analyst

    Bret Jordan - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys. Could you talk about sort of what you're seeing on fill rates in the independent NAPA stores? I think you said selling was down low single digits. But is that sort of in line with what they're seeing from sellout and their inventory levels are generally stable? Or are they destocking to some extent?

    嘿,大家早安。您能否談談您對獨立 NAPA 商店的填充率的看法?我認為您說的是銷售額下降了個位數。但這是否與他們所看到的銷售情況一致,而且他們的庫存水準總體穩定?或者他們正在某種程度上減少庫存?

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • No, we've seen a really nice improvement actually in the independent owner inventory positions as we've been working with them closely over the last 12 months-plus to make sure that they were in great positions. That correlation between kind of purchases and sales out is as tight as it's been in the last couple of years, which is a good indicator.

    不,實際上,我們看到獨立業主庫存狀況有了非常好的改善,因為在過去 12 個多月裡,我們一直與他們密切合作,以確保他們處於良好的地位。購買量和銷售量之間的相關性與過去幾年一樣緊密,這是一個很好的指標。

  • What's also a positive indicator is that the sales out from independent owners line up nicely with what we're seeing in our company-owned stores, which is up low single digits. So as we think about the sequential improvement through the first half and where we are today relative to 12 months ago, we're positive.

    另一個正面的指標是,獨立店主的銷售額與我們公司自營商店的銷售額一致,成長了個位數。因此,當我們考慮到上半年的連續改善以及相對於 12 個月前的現狀時,我們感到很樂觀。

  • Bret Jordan - Analyst

    Bret Jordan - Analyst

  • And I guess a follow-up question. On pricing around the tariff increases and what you might see in the second half. Are you seeing that you're being able to attach full margin to the inflation? Like you said earlier, the pricing in the market is rational. Are you getting sort of the good pass-through on that cost increase?

    我想這是一個後續問題。關於關稅上調後的定價以及下半年可能出現的情況。您是否認為可以將全部利潤與通貨膨脹掛鉤?正如您之前所說,市場定價是合理的。您是否獲得了成本增加的良好轉嫁?

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Bret, this is Bert. I'd say yes. I don't know that it's a net benefit at this point to gross margin. But I would say that at this point, we're pretty balanced between the cost increase that we're feeling from the supplier side and then what we're able to move into the market from a pricing dynamic.

    是的,布雷特,我是伯特。我認為是的。我不知道這是否是目前毛利率的淨收益。但我想說,目前,我們在供應商方面感受到的成本增加和我們能夠從定價動態中進入市場的成本增加之間取得了相當平衡。

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • I would just add that the complexity, I mean, that's a simple statement, but the complexity to arrive at that result is pretty high. So I just want to take the moment to acknowledge the teams. I mean we talked about the command center in both of our big businesses. You've got anywhere from 8 to 10 different categories of tariffs. You've got millions of SKU combinations, multiple vendors.

    我只想補充一點複雜性,我的意思是,這是一個簡單的陳述,但得出這個結果的複雜性相當高。所以我只想藉此機會感謝一下這些團隊。我的意思是我們討論了兩家大公司的指揮中心。關稅有 8 到 10 個不同類別。您有數百萬種 SKU 組合和多個供應商。

  • So it's a SKU by SKU, day-by-day game. And that's why I think we make the comments about the resources and the tools that you need and the expertise and talent you need to navigate this situation is high, and we feel really good about the work that's being done at the company.

    所以這是一個逐一 SKU、日復一日的遊戲。這就是為什麼我認為我們對您所需的資源和工具以及應對這種情況所需的專業知識和人才的評論很高,我們對公司正在進行的工作感到非常滿意。

  • Bret Jordan - Analyst

    Bret Jordan - Analyst

  • And I guess, still pretty fluid, but how do you see the cadence of those price tailwinds into the second half? It sounds like we might see a few points of price, but is it really built into the fourth quarter?

    我想,情況仍然相當不穩定,但您如何看待下半年價格順風的節奏?聽起來我們可能會看到幾個價格點,但它真的會在第四季顯現嗎?

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • No, Bret, I mean I think the cadence accelerates from here. We talked about having an immaterial benefit both in the first quarter and the second quarter. So I think the cadence really builds from here as we look to the rest of the year. If I had to [weight] it, it probably has a little bit more impact here in the third quarter as we start to see some of those come through and I think levels out to more normalized kind of experiences there in the fourth quarter.

    不,布雷特,我的意思是我認為節奏從這裡開始加快。我們談到了第一季和第二季都獲得的非物質利益。因此,我認為,當我們展望今年剩餘時間時,節奏確實從現在開始建立。如果我必須權衡的話,它可能會在第三季度產生更大的影響,因為我們開始看到其中一些影響逐漸顯現,而且我認為在第四季度,這種影響會趨於更加正常化。

  • Bret Jordan - Analyst

    Bret Jordan - Analyst

  • Great. I really appreciate it. Thank you.

    偉大的。我真的很感激。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scot Ciccarelli, Truist.

    斯科特·西卡雷利(Scot Ciccarelli),Truist。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - Equity Analyst

    Scot Ciccarelli - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. I guess a little bit of a follow-up and then a primary. Can you guys just provide a bit more color on your expectations for same SKU inflation in the US business? And it looks like you're assuming a little bit of [negative] elasticity. So if you can provide more color around that, that would be helpful.

    大家早安。我想先進行一些後續工作,然後再進行初選。你們能否更詳細地說明一下對美國業務中相同 SKU 通膨的預期?看起來你假設了一點[負]彈性。因此,如果您可以提供更多相關內容,那將會很有幫助。

  • And then second, on the margin front, Global Auto margins are down over 100 basis points from kind of where you were a year ago or two years ago and would have been a pretty steady rate for many years. Just given the puts and takes you've identified, should we assume kind of the rebasing that we've seen is the likely go-forward rate on Auto margins? Thanks.

    其次,在利潤率方面,全球汽車利潤率比一兩年前下降了 100 多個基點,而多年來一直保持相當穩定的水平。僅根據您所確定的看跌期權和看漲期權,我們是否應該假設我們所看到的重新調整是汽車利潤率的可能前進率?謝謝。

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Scot. So on the first part of your question, I would say that our US assumptions -- maybe I'll pull it up just a little bit. Our assumptions around inflation in the second half aren't materially different between the two segments, and they're not materially different between the geographies. And so when we think about how we've factored in a little higher assumption around the inflation rate, that obviously had a lot to do with the tariff environment.

    是的,斯科特。因此,關於你問題的第一部分,我想說,我們的美國假設——也許我會稍微提一下。我們對下半年通膨的假設在兩個部門之間沒有實質差異,在各地區之間也沒有實質差異。因此,當我們考慮如何將通膨率的稍高一些的假設考慮進去時,這顯然與關稅環境有很大關係。

  • If I had to weight it, I'd weight it a little bit more to the NAPA business versus the industrial business, and I'd weight it more US than I would the other geographies. But we are impacted when we think about the tariffs, most predominantly between NAPA and the Motion business, although Canada will feel some of the impact there as well. So that's kind of how we're thinking about the inflation part of the rest of the year.

    如果必須加權的話,我會更多地考慮納帕業務而不是工業業務,而且我會更多地考慮美國而不是其他地區。但當我們考慮關稅時,我們受到了影響,主要是 NAPA 和 Motion 業務之間的影響,儘管加拿大也會感受到一些影響。這就是我們對今年剩餘時間通膨部分的看法。

  • I think on the second part of your question, the key headwind right now for profitability in the Automotive business is -- or the Global Automotive segment is the inflation that we're feeling across the world. So we're got a little bit upside down correlation between the cost that we're feeling from an inflation perspective in SG&A and the benefit that we're getting in the top line. And this is true for each geography. So when we think about the US, we feel that different -- inflation is probably running in the 3%, 3.5%. It's a little higher actually in Europe and Asia Pac.

    我認為關於你問題的第二部分,目前汽車業務盈利能力面臨的主要阻力是——或者說全球汽車領域面臨的阻力是我們在世界各地感受到的通貨膨脹。因此,從通貨膨脹的角度來看,我們所感受到的銷售、一般和行政費用的成本與我們在營業收入中獲得的收益之間存在一點顛倒的相關性。對於每個地區都是如此。因此,當我們考慮美國時,我們感覺到不同——通貨膨脹率可能在 3% 或 3.5% 之間。實際上,歐洲和亞太地區的數字略高一些。

  • And in every case, we see a delta that, as I said in my prepared remarks, is about 100 basis points between the top line and the SG&A cost impact. So that's really why we've been thinking about all the work we're doing on the cost front, the restructuring actions we're taking to try to bend the curve. I think we've made a lot of progress on bending the curve. As you heard me talk in my prepared remarks about sequentially improving the deleverage.

    正如我在準備好的演講中所說,在每種情況下,我們都會看到營業收入和銷售、一般及行政費用影響之間的差異約為 100 個基點。所以這就是為什麼我們一直在考慮我們在成本方面所做的所有工作,以及我們正在採取的重組行動,以試圖扭轉局面。我認為我們在扭轉趨勢方面已經取得了很大進展。正如你們在我準備好的發言中聽到的,關於逐步改善去槓桿的發言。

  • To the latter part of your point about is this the new baseline for the Global Automotive business. I mean that's not our objective is to keep it with declining profitability. We're doing all this work, and we're taking all these actions to improve the profitability over the long term. In the near term, we've got some very, I think, specific challenges with respect to this higher cost inflation. And as we look into the second half of the year, I think you're going to see, as I also said in my prepared remarks, an improvement in the profitability of the business, and we can't get there without an improving Global Automotive segment.

    關於您提到的後半部分,這是全球汽車業務的新基準嗎?我的意思是,我們的目標不是維持獲利能力的下降。我們正在進行所有這些工作,並採取所有這些行動來提高長期獲利能力。我認為,短期內,我們在成本上漲方面將面臨一些非常具體的挑戰。當我們展望下半年時,我想你會看到,正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,業務盈利能力有所提高,而如果沒有全球汽車部門的改善,我們就無法實現這一目標。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - Equity Analyst

    Scot Ciccarelli - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks a lot. Very helpful.

    知道了。多謝。非常有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的克里斯多福霍弗斯。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, guys. So first, a question on the Motion business, the top line. Can you talk about how do you think about maybe the cadence of that? Is there an assumption that sort of the tariff uncertainty dies down and that the organic growth rate accelerates as you proceed through the year? And qualitatively, is some of the improvements at the margin that you're seeing in the business. Is that fueling your view? Or does that just sort of provide hope that it might happen in the fourth quarter?

    謝謝。大家早安。首先,我想問一下有關 Motion 業務的問題。可以談談你如何看待它的節奏嗎?是否有這樣的假設:隨著時間的推移,關稅的不確定性會逐漸消失,有機成長率也會加快?從品質上看,這是您在業務中看到的一些邊際改進。這是否印證了你的觀點?或者這只是給人一種它可能在第四季度發生的希望?

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • I'll take the second piece first, qualitatively. I mean the improvements in the business are real and something that we're really proud about. We're doing a lot of work out in the field, making sure that we're covering our customers with selling resources the right way. So we've done some restructuring around making sure we're bringing our best industry technical experts to all of our customers in a different way.

    我先定性地談談第二部分。我的意思是,業務的改善是真實的,我們對此感到非常自豪。我們在該領域做了大量工作,確保以正確的方式向客戶提供銷售資源。因此,我們進行了一些重組,以確保以不同的方式為所有客戶提供最佳的行業技術專家。

  • The intensity around making sure that we're calling on not just corporate accounts, but medium and small-sized customers. I made reference to the digital investments that we're making, which is an important way in which we connect with our customers electronically, that's seen amazing growth.

    我們努力確保我們不僅能聯繫到企業客戶,還能聯繫中小型客戶。我提到了我們正在進行的數位投資,這是我們透過電子方式與客戶聯繫的重要方式,並且取得了驚人的成長。

  • So the sales effectiveness, in quote, strategies and initiatives that we're running are building really, really nice momentum on top of all of the really thoughtful pricing and sourcing initiatives and then cost discipline. So we are just desperate like everybody else for the end market to cooperate with us. And when it does, we're looking forward to much, much brighter days ahead, but we're doing a lot of self-help right now to make the best of a challenging market.

    因此,我們所實施的銷售效率、策略和措施正在所有真正周到的定價和採購舉措以及成本紀律的基礎上建立起真正良好的勢頭。因此,我們和其他人一樣,迫切希望終端市場與我們合作。當這一切發生時,我們期待未來會更加光明,但我們現在正在做很多自助工作,以便在充滿挑戰的市場中取得最佳成績。

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And Chris, I'd just add, your point there about are we seeing more or less uncertainty with respect to tariffs. I think we find ourselves at a moment, which is why we added the tariffs into our guidance with more clarity, but not full clarity. And I think that's allowed us to factor in what we see as of the environment over the last 90 days; we have a body of work to be able to manage and work with and understand. As Will has outlined, our teams are working diligently each day to understand that and factor that into the business. And I think that gave us some confidence to put some of our initial expectations into the outlook.

    克里斯,我想補充一點,你的觀點是,我們在關稅方面是否看到了更多或更少的不確定性。我認為我們正處於一個關鍵時刻,這就是為什麼我們將關稅更清晰地添加到我們的指導中,但不是完全清晰。我認為這使我們能夠考慮到過去 90 天所見的環境;我們有大量的工作需要管理、處理和理解。正如威爾所概述的,我們的團隊每天都在努力了解這一點並將其納入業務中。我認為這給了我們一些信心,讓我們能夠將最初的一些預期融入前景中。

  • But look, I think as we look ahead, there's more to come. I mean, we're in another pause here until August 1 in many respects. I think the current pause for China is August 10. And I think as we think about the longer view, tariff clarity, I think, would be a positive unlock in many respects. And I think it would give our customers some confidence about how they think about the go forward.

    但我認為,當我們展望未來時,還會有更多的事情發生。我的意思是,從很多方面來說,我們將再次暫停,直到 8 月 1 日。我認為中國目前的暫停時間是8月10日。我認為,從長遠來看,關稅清晰化在許多方面都會帶來積極的促進作用。我認為這會讓我們的客戶對未來發展充滿信心。

  • Now having said that, the rest of the year for Motion, we do start the quarter in an expansionary territory. The outlined downside scenario that we gave you all back in April has played out. And that's why we moderated our expectations for Motion for the rest of the year. But moderated doesn't mean that we're not still seeing some positive things, as Will commented on, and it gives us the confidence to, while lower it, still feel good about the growth for Motion in the second half.

    話雖如此,對於 Motion 來說,在今年剩餘的時間裡,我們確實在擴張領域開始了本季。我們在四月向大家概述的不利情景已經發生。這就是為什麼我們降低了對今年剩餘時間 Motion 的預期。但正如威爾所評論的那樣,放緩並不意味著我們沒有看到一些積極的事情,它給了我們信心,雖然降低了它,但仍然對下半年 Motion 的增長感到滿意。

  • Some context for that is we do have easy comparisons as we get into the rest of the year. If you recall a year ago, the reported results in the Industrial segment were negative in both the third and the fourth quarters. And so as we look ahead, particularly as we exit the second quarter with positive growth at Motion despite this continued sluggish PMI backdrop and built on the commentary that Will shared about customers looking to move forward despite some of these headwinds, we feel good about the guide. It does accelerate Q3 and then it accelerates again in Q4. But on that two-year stack, I think what we're expecting is fairly reasonable.

    一些背景是,當我們進入今年剩餘時間時,我們確實可以輕鬆進行比較。如果您回想一下一年前,工業部門報告的第三季和第四季業績均為負值。因此,當我們展望未來時,特別是在第二季度結束時,儘管 PMI 持續低迷,但 Motion 仍實現了正增長,並且基於威爾分享的關於客戶希望在面臨一些不利因素的情況下繼續前進的評論,我們對該指南感到滿意。它確實加速了 Q3,然後在 Q4 再次加速。但對於這兩年的發展,我認為我們的預期是相當合理的。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • And just to clarify, the positive organic Motion to start the third quarter?

    需要澄清的是,第三季開始時有積極的有機動議嗎?

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I think so. Look, I mean, we -- like I said, we had a negative growth territory in Q3 and in Q4 last year. And so we're continuing to see positive trends in the Motion business, albeit at a little bit moderated pace from when we started the year.

    是的。我認為是的。看,我的意思是,就像我說的,我們去年第三季和第四季出現了負成長。因此,我們繼續看到運動業務的積極趨勢,儘管與年初相比速度略有放緩。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Got it. And then a follow-up question on the US NAPA business. As you think about the independents being down, the core stores being up, I think some people out there believe that maybe this gross margin expansion is you're taking too much price and that's causing some share shift dynamic, share headwind dynamic. It doesn't look like that in the company-operated stores. So I guess what is different about the independents going back to Bret's question just to kick off the Q&A.

    知道了。然後是關於美國 NAPA 業務的後續問題。當你想到獨立商店的銷量下降,核心商店的銷量上升時,我想有些人會認為,也許這種毛利率擴張是因為你定價過高,從而導致市場份額轉移和逆風。在公司經營的商店裡情況並非如此。所以我想,獨立人士回到布雷特的問題來開始問答環節有什麼不同嗎?

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Look, I think we feel really good about how we're positioned from a price perspective in the market. There's a lot of science to it. We've got good visibility into where the market is. And as we've talked about before, it's SKU by SKU, but we study that and feel good about it and have a thoughtful strategy there.

    是的。看,我認為我們對於我們在市場價格方面的定位感到非常滿意。這裡面有很多科學道理。我們對市場現狀有很好的了解。正如我們之前所討論的,它是逐個 SKU 進行的,但我們對此進行了研究,對此感覺良好,並製定了深思熟慮的策略。

  • I think as it relates to kind of what's different between the independent owner performance in company-owned stores is really just the kind of the pace at which they get comfortable with the uncertain world that we live in. And as a big corporate organization, we work and navigate it centrally here and pull levers and move at pace. And we have to work with those independent owners, of which there's roughly 2,000 to understand what's going on in the market, help them realize what inventory they need to put in and then partner with them to make sure that it makes sense, and that just takes time.

    我認為這與公司自營商店的獨立業主表現之間的差異實際上在於他們適應我們所居住的不確定世界的速度。作為一個大型企業組織,我們在這裡集中開展工作和導航,推動各項工作並快速行動。我們必須與這些獨立業主合作,其中大約有 2,000 名,以了解市場狀況,幫助他們了解需要投入哪些庫存,然後與他們合作以確保這是合理的,而這需要時間。

  • But the most important takeaway is the work that we're doing in the business, whether it's company-owned stores, or the way in which we're working with independent owners is sequentially improving as designed, and we're going to stay after it and continue to work through them, but that's the value prop that we bring to these really important stakeholders, which is the independent owners.

    但最重要的收穫是我們在業務中所做的工作,無論是公司自營商店,還是我們與獨立業主合作的方式,都在按照設計逐步改進,我們將繼續堅持下去,繼續努力,但這是我們為這些真正重要的利益相關者,也就是獨立業主帶來的價值主張。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks very much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greg Melich, Evercore.

    格雷格·梅利奇(Greg Melich),Evercore。

  • Greg Melich - Analyst

    Greg Melich - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks. I had a follow-up on inflation margins and then on the cost side. So first on inflation, I want to make sure I got it right that, it's 200 bps for the year for the company. So that's implying the back half is 300 bps after 100 bps in the first half?

    你好。謝謝。我對通貨膨脹率以及成本方面進行了追蹤。因此,首先關於通貨膨脹,我想確保我理解的正確,即該公司今年的通貨膨脹率為 200 個基點。那麼,這是否意味著前半部是 100 個基點,後半部是 300 個基點?

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • That's a fair ZIP Code to live in, Greg.

    格雷格,這是一個適合居住的郵遞區號。

  • Greg Melich - Analyst

    Greg Melich - Analyst

  • Got it. And so I guess, is that the main reason why the guidance has margins up in the back half after having fallen in the first half? Or is there other things --

    知道了。所以我猜,這是導致指導利潤率在上半年下降之後,下半年上升的主要原因嗎?或者還有其他事情--

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • No, Greg, I would say, look, I mean, our expectation for the year has always been to have an improving second half. I think part of that is driven by the expectations around a better top line, although we've moderated that to some degree. But the other thing I would point out is that we really have been working very diligently on our cost structure.

    不,格雷格,我想說,看,我的意思是,我們對今年的期望一直是下半年有所改善。我認為部分原因是人們對更好的營收預期,儘管我們已經在某種程度上緩和了這種預期。但我想指出的另一件事是,我們確實一直在非常努力地改進我們的成本結構。

  • And when you combine accelerating benefits from cost actions, the full year impact of last year's restructuring work, the additional actions we've just implemented here at the end of the quarter, gaining on the synergies around many of the acquisitions we executed in 2024, the totality of that body of work helps to drive a better bottom line as we look into the second half of the year. And we've just come off of a quarter in which a sluggish top line wasn't enough to offset some of these headwinds that we had, and we've communicated to everyone.

    而且,當你將成本行動帶來的加速收益、去年重組工作對全年的影響、我們在本季度末剛實施的額外行動以及我們在 2024 年執行的許多收購所產生的協同效應結合起來時,所有這些工作有助於在我們展望下半年時實現更好的盈利。我們剛剛度過了一個季度,低迷的營收不足以抵消我們面臨的一些不利因素,我們已經與所有人進行了溝通。

  • But as we look into the third quarter, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're looking for earnings to be up somewhere between 5% and 10%. And that means the combination of everything within the business, the top line, the cost actions, the continued improvement in gross margin, all of those things in total I think give us a better outlook for the second half of the year in terms of how we're performing from an earnings perspective.

    但展望第三季度,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們預計收益將成長 5% 至 10% 之間。這意味著,業務內的所有因素、營業收入、成本行動、毛利率的持續改善等綜合起來,我認為從獲利角度來看,所有這些因素將為我們對下半年的業績表現帶來更好的展望。

  • Greg Melich - Analyst

    Greg Melich - Analyst

  • And what was the incremental $30 million of restructuring expense. What was that spent on? And that $200 million of savings, has that already started to flow in? Or does that come next year?

    增量的 3000 萬美元重組費用是多少?這些錢花在哪裡了?那 2 億美元的儲蓄已經開始流入了嗎?還是明年才會發生?

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, no, I mean we've already got the combination of actions we took last year, along with the actions we've implemented in 2025 are already benefiting the current year. As we shared for the quarter, we had an $0.18 benefit in the full year. The $200 million is what we're looking at as an annualized benefit getting into 2026. Obviously, we'll give you a sharper view on that as we give you a 2026 guide.

    嗯,不,我的意思是我們已經將去年採取的行動與 2025 年實施的行動結合起來,並且已經使今年受益。正如我們本季所分享的,我們全年的收益為 0.18 美元。我們認為 2 億美元是 2026 年的年度收益。顯然,我們將為您提供 2026 年指南,讓您對此有更清晰的了解。

  • But we think the way we're tracking at this point allows us to be confident that, that will be an over $200 million annualized benefit as we look ahead. In terms of the additional actions we've taken at the end of the quarter, I would just say and keep it kind of simple, we're just continuing to lean in to simplifying our operations and streamlining our back office.

    但我們認為,我們目前的追蹤方式讓我們有信心,展望未來,這將是超過 2 億美元的年化收益。關於我們在本季末採取的額外行動,我只想說,保持簡單,我們只是繼續傾向於簡化我們的營運並精簡我們的後台辦公室。

  • We've got great opportunities to do that across IT, looking at global efficiencies and really being sure that we can be smart. Obviously, some of our weakness has been in Europe. And so we're looking to be smarter in terms of how we streamline things there as well and gain efficiencies. So we think the investment we made at the end of the quarter here to do a few more actions is the right one. It's what you do when you continue to face a sluggish outlook and a weaker outlook and not turning as fast as you expected and it's what you would expect us to do.

    我們擁有在整個 IT 領域實現這一目標的絕佳機會,著眼於全球效率,並真正確保我們能夠變得智慧。顯然,我們的一些弱點在歐洲。因此,我們希望以更聰明的方式簡化流程並提高效率。因此,我們認為我們在本季末採取的更多行動的投資是正確的。當你繼續面臨低迷的前景和較弱的前景,並且轉變速度沒有像你預期的那樣快時,你就會這樣做,這也是你所期望我們做的事情。

  • So we'll get a little bit more benefit for that in 2025. We've included that in our outlook. And that's the reason we also had a little bit of a tweak in our cash flow outlook as well.

    因此,到 2025 年我們將獲得更多利益。我們已將其納入我們的展望中。這就是我們對現金流前景進行一些調整的原因。

  • Greg Melich - Analyst

    Greg Melich - Analyst

  • Thanks, and good luck.

    謝謝,祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lasser, UBS Securities.

    瑞銀證券的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. Thank you very much. [Continuing] to the part of a large and complex organization. In the past, the company has taken actions to streamline the portfolio. At this juncture, would you be able to accelerate the deployment of your strategies and the successful execution of those initiatives if you were to have more of a streamlined organization and how does that fit into your thinking today?

    早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。非常感謝。 [繼續]對於一個龐大而複雜的組織。過去,該公司已採取行動精簡投資組合。在這個關鍵時刻,如果您擁有一個更精簡的組織,您是否能夠加快部署您的策略並成功執行這些計劃?這與您今天的想法有何關聯?

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Michael, I'll take that one. Listen, we love both of these businesses. They're great businesses. They're large markets, attractive markets. They're similar in many ways in the sense that the initiatives that we're doing at the business are additive to both and we've leveraged that over the last two or three years to accelerate our execution to make both businesses better.

    邁克爾,我要這個。聽著,我們喜歡這兩家公司。他們都是很棒的企業。它們是龐大的市場,而且極具吸引力。它們在許多方面都很相似,因為我們在業務上採取的舉措對兩者都有補充作用,並且我們在過去兩三年中利用這一點來加快執行速度,從而使這兩項業務都變得更好。

  • So I would say the benefit that we get from having these two businesses together as we push forward in the near term, to execute on specific initiatives, whether it's sales effectiveness, tech initiatives, supply chain, they're all relevant. And we feel good about making both sides of our business better at pace and being separate, certainly, at this moment, probably doesn't give us a pace benefit because of the way in which we're all working together. So we feel good about how we're positioned today and constantly thinking about how to make the business better in each of our verticals, but also in the aggregate.

    因此我想說,將這兩項業務合併在一起,我們將在短期內推動具體舉措的實施,無論是銷售效率、技術舉措還是供應鏈,它們都是相關的。我們很高興能夠加快我們業務雙方的步伐,當然,就目前而言,由於我們大家的合作方式,分開可能不會為我們帶來速度上的優勢。因此,我們對目前的定位感到滿意,並不斷思考如何在每個垂直領域以及整體上改善業務。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • Okay. My follow-up question is on the Auto business. It's performed consistent with what you expected in the first half of the year. You have now taken into account all of the tariffs. You're going to get a couple of hundred, maybe a few hundred basis points of like-for-like pricing in the back half of the year. So A, is that what you expect the industry to see from a like-for-like pricing benefit? And B, why are you lowering your top line outlook for this segment in light of those first two factors?

    好的。我的後續問題是關於汽車業務的。它的表現與你對上半年的期望一致。現在您已經考慮了所有的關稅。您將在今年下半年獲得幾百個,甚至幾百個基點的同類定價。那麼 A,這就是您期望行業從同類定價優勢中看到的嗎?B,考慮到前兩個因素,您為什麼要降低該部門的營收預期?

  • Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Maybe I'll take the first -- the second part of your question first, Michael, and just give you some color on the way we thought about kind of the elements of the top line. And we gave those comments at the segment level, so I'll try to break it down a little bit, and there's a lot of moving pieces here. We certainly saw the inflation benefit that we gave you move up. That's predominantly on the back of what we see as more tariff and the pricing benefit from tariff being in the low single-digit range that I shared in my prepared remarks.

    邁克爾,也許我會先回答你問題的第一部分——第二部分,然後告訴你我們對頂線元素的看法。我們在片段層面給出了這些評論,所以我將嘗試對其進行一些分解,這裡有很多活動的部分。我們確實看到我們給予您的通膨利益有所上升。這主要是因為我們看到了更多的關稅,以及關稅帶來的定價優勢處於低個位數範圍內,我在準備好的發言中已經分享過這一點。

  • The question is a good one. Why not keep the revenue outlook flat? Why do you change it? And I think that really gets into unpacking the different elements. They don't impact us in a linear fashion. So maybe we'll start with Europe as an example.

    這個問題問得好。為什麼不保持收入前景穩定?為什麼要改變它?我認為這確實涉及解開不同的元素。它們不會以線性方式影響我們。因此我們不妨以歐洲為例。

  • Europe market conditions, while they haven't gotten any worse, they certainly didn't get any better in the second quarter, and we don't expect them to get much better towards the rest of the year. And so when you think about Europe business in which we've moderated expectations, we've done that on the top line base revenue assumption, but there was no tariff benefit to offset any of that and so you have a pure negative there.

    歐洲市場狀況雖然沒有變得更糟,但第二季也沒有任何好轉,我們預計今年剩餘時間內也不會有太大改善。因此,當您考慮我們調整了對歐洲業務的預期時,我們是根據最高基礎收入假設來做的,但沒有關稅優惠來抵消任何影響,因此那裡的預期是純粹的負面。

  • When you move back to the US and you look at the Automotive business, we did moderate some of the base assumptions there, but we do have an offset there. And so that impact is a little bit more balanced, I would say, still leaning towards a net headwind when we think about that.

    當你回到美國並觀察汽車業務時,我們確實調整了一些基本假設,但我們確實在那裡得到了抵消。因此,我認為這種影響會更加平衡一些,當我們考慮到這一點時,仍然傾向於淨逆風。

  • And then you move into the rest of the Automotive segment, you think about Canada, again, moderated top line but with a little bit of tariff consideration. APAC, another one like Europe, taking down the revenue with no tariff offset. So I think when you take the totality of that, and let's remember, we're giving you guys ranges. They're meant to be guideposts, and we can land the plane and varying degrees of those guideposts. And so I don't want to be overly precise about something that's pretty imprecise given the backdrop.

    然後你進入汽車領域的其他部分,你會想到加拿大,同樣,收入有所緩和,但有一點關稅考慮。亞太地區與歐洲類似,由於沒有關稅抵消,其收入有所下降。所以我認為,當你把這些都考慮進去時,請記住,我們給你們提供了範圍。它們就像路標,我們可以按照不同程度的路標降落飛機。因此,我不想對某些在特定背景下不太精確的事情過於精確。

  • But I would just say that, hopefully, that gives you some color about how we thought about the individual pieces. It is complex. We do have some tariff offsets in certain regards, but in other places we didn't, and the net totality of that was to bring the revenue outlook down for the year.

    但我只想說,希望這能讓您了解我們如何看待各個部分。它很複雜。在某些方面我們確實有一些關稅抵消,但在其他地方卻沒有,而這一切的淨總額將導致今年的收入前景下降。

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Hey, Michael. I might just also add as it relates to is our same SKU inflation outlook relevant for everybody else? I don't know. All of our businesses are different. All of our country-of-origin nuances are different. Our exposure to steel is different. We had some industrial competitors out that had a different view of their inflation outlook.

    嘿,麥可。我可能還會補充一點,我們相同的 SKU 通膨前景是否與其他人相關?我不知道。我們所有的業務都是不同的。我們所有原產國的細微差別都是不同的。我們對鋼鐵的了解有所不同。我們的一些工業競爭對手對通膨前景有不同的看法。

  • So I know that's not what the investment community wants to hear because we want to extrapolate our information to others, but I think I would offer up some caution on doing this. We've done the work that we think is most appropriate and thoughtful for our business and how that relates to others, I'll leave it to the experts to figure out.

    所以我知道這不是投資界想聽到的,因為我們想將我們的訊息推廣給其他人,但我認為我應該對這樣做提出一些警告。我們已經完成了我們認為對我們的業務最合適、最周到的工作,至於這與其他業務有何關係,我將留給專家去弄清楚。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • Thank you, so much and good luck.

    非常感謝,祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kate McShane, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的凱特·麥克沙恩。

  • Kate McShane - Analyst

    Kate McShane - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. We just wanted to drill down a little bit more on the performance in the European segment by country. And just wondering how much of your initiatives like the NAPA brand expansion are helping offset some of maybe those broader macro headwinds?

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。我們只是想更深入地了解歐洲各國的表現。我只是想知道,你們的舉措(例如 NAPA 品牌擴張)在多大程度上有助於抵消一些更廣泛的宏觀不利因素?

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks, Kate. We had kind of mixed performance throughout Europe. The key takeaway is that while it was mixed, it sequentially improved in most geographies, most countries as we went into the second quarter. So as we closed second quarter, we saw improvement in the majority of our geographies.

    是的。謝謝,凱特。我們在整個歐洲的表現好壞參半。關鍵的一點是,儘管情況好壞參半,但進入第二季後,大多數地區、大多數國家的情況都出現了連續改善。因此,當我們結束第二季度時,我們看到大多數地區的情況都有改善。

  • The NAPA branded product is a real differentiator for us in the market. And what we're seeing, and we've made some public comments about this. I mean, in these markets, your customers are looking for value and that's at the core of the NAPA offering in Europe, and it's first of its kind in many ways.

    NAPA 品牌產品是我們在市場上真正的差異化優勢。我們看到了一些情況,並對此發表了一些公開評論。我的意思是,在這些市場中,您的客戶正在尋求價值,而這正是 NAPA 在歐洲提供的產品的核心,而且它在許多方面都是首創的。

  • And so we've got good penetration in all of our geographies from a NAPA branded product standpoint and it's absolutely helping us offset a sluggish market over there. So I'd say mixed, not one market kind of an outlier, but all kind of mostly sequentially improving as we went through the second quarter.

    因此,從 NAPA 品牌產品的角度來看,我們在所有地區都具有良好的滲透率,這絕對有助於我們抵消那裡的市場低迷。所以我想說情況好壞參半,不是一個市場出現異常,而是隨著我們進入第二季度,所有市場都出現了持續改善。

  • Kate McShane - Analyst

    Kate McShane - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have now reached the end of our allotted time. I will now turn the call to Will for closing remarks.

    我們現在已經到了規定時間的結束。現在請威爾致閉幕詞。

  • William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    William Stengel - President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Thanks again, everybody, for your interest in Genuine Parts Company. We look forward to giving everybody an update on our call in October. Have a great day, and thanks so much.

    再次感謝大家對 Genuine Parts Company 的關注。我們期待在十月的電話會議上向大家通報最新進展。祝您有愉快的一天,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。