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Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Genuine Parts Company fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
女士們、先生們,早安。歡迎參加 Genuine Parts Company 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)此通話於 2025 年 2 月 18 日星期二錄製。
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Tim, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Tim。先生,請繼續。
Timothy Walsh - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Timothy Walsh - Senior Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Genuine Parts Company's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining us on the call today are Will Stengel, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝大家,早安。歡迎參加 Genuine Parts Company 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Will Stengel;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Bert Nappier。
In addition to this morning's press release, a supplemental slide presentation can be found on the Investors page of the Genuine Parts Company website. Today's call is being webcast, and a replay will also be made available on the company's website after the call.
除了今天早上的新聞稿外,還可以在 Genuine Parts Company 網站的投資者頁面上找到補充幻燈片簡報。今天的電話會議將進行網路直播,會議結束後,公司網站上也將提供重播。
Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions, the responses to which will reflect management's views as of today, February 18, 2025. If we're unable to get to your questions, please contact our Investor Relations department.
在我們準備好發言之後,電話會議將開放提問,答案將反映截至 2025 年 2 月 18 日管理層的觀點。如果我們無法回答您的問題,請聯絡我們的投資者關係部門。
Please be advised, this call may include certain non-GAAP financial measures, which may be referred to during today's discussion of our results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of these measures is provided in the earnings press release.
請注意,本次電話會議可能涉及某些非公認會計準則財務指標,在今天討論我們根據公認會計原則報告的績效時可能會提及這些指標。收益新聞稿中提供了這些措施的對帳。
Today's call may also involve forward-looking statements regarding the company and its businesses as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors described in the company's latest SEC filings, including this morning's press release. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call.
今天的電話會議也可能涉及 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案所定義的有關公司及其業務的前瞻性陳述。由於該公司最新的美國證券交易委員會文件(包括今天上午的新聞稿)中描述的幾個重要因素,該公司的實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。本公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述的義務。
Now, I'll turn the call over to Will.
現在,我將電話轉給威爾。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Tim, and good morning. Welcome to our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call. Before we get into the details of our results, I want to take a moment to express my gratitude to our over 63,000 GPC teammates around the world. Your hard work, dedication, and unwavering commitment to serving our customers are the foundation of our success.
謝謝你,提姆,早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。在我們詳細了解結果之前,我想花點時間向我們遍布全球的 63,000 多名 GPC 隊友表示感謝。您的辛勤工作、奉獻精神以及對服務客戶的堅定承諾是我們成功的基礎。
Our people are at the heart of everything we do. And we have a culture of service, performance, integrity, and teamwork. In 2024, we made meaningful strides in strengthening our teams by making focused investments in talent across the globe at all levels.
我們的員工是我們一切工作的核心。我們的文化是服務、績效、誠信和團隊合作。2024 年,我們透過對全球各個層級的人才進行重點投資,在加強團隊建立方面取得了重大進展。
These people investments are helping build a stronger organization. As evidence of the strength of our culture, we're proud to share that in our most recent global engagement survey, a record 81% of our teammates reported being highly engaged with our company, up three points from the survey a couple years ago.
這些人力投資正在幫助建立一個更強大的組織。作為我們文化力量的證據,我們很自豪地告訴大家,在我們最近的全球參與度調查中,創紀錄的 81% 的隊友表示對公司高度投入,比幾年前的調查結果上升了三個百分點。
Reflecting on 2024, our end markets did not perform at the levels we planned at the start of the year. But I'm proud the team stayed focused on what we could control, as we advanced our strategic initiatives to improve the business and effectively manage our operations against the backdrop of challenging macroeconomic conditions.
回顧 2024 年,我們的終端市場表現並未達到我們年初計畫的水準。但我很自豪團隊始終專注於我們能夠控制的事情,因為我們在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟條件下推進了戰略舉措,以改善業務並有效地管理我們的營運。
Our strategic investments continue to enhance the customer experience, improve productivity, and drive profitable growth as we leverage our global scale and teamwork to prioritize opportunities that make GPC smarter, faster, and better. Technology and data underpin our investment priorities with an emphasis on talent, sales, and supply chain. We're confident that our investments and actions continue to strengthen the business and create long-term value.
我們的策略投資持續增強客戶體驗、提高生產力並推動獲利成長,同時我們利用我們的全球規模和團隊合作來優先考慮使 GPC 更聰明、更快、更好的機會。技術和數據是我們投資重點的基礎,重點是人才、銷售和供應鏈。我們相信,我們的投資和行動將繼續加強業務並創造長期價值。
We complement our core investments with disciplined bolt-on acquisitions. In 2024, we acquired over 100 companies that added talent, geographic coverage, new capabilities, and value to GPC. I'd like to take a few moments to highlight some of our key accomplishments from 2024. And Bert will share more details on the fourth quarter and our 2025 outlook in a few moments.
我們透過嚴謹的附加收購來補充我們的核心投資。2024 年,我們收購了 100 多家公司,為 GPC 增加了人才、地理覆蓋範圍、新功能和價值。我想花點時間來重點介紹我們在 2024 年取得的一些主要成就。稍後,伯特將分享有關第四季度和 2025 年展望的更多詳細資訊。
A few financial highlights for 2024 include total GPC sales were $23.5 billion, an increase of approximately $400 million or 1.7% compared to 2023. Included in our sales growth was a benefit of 260 basis points from strategic acquisitions, which offset weak market conditions, particularly in our industrial segment. Adjusted gross margin increased 70 basis points, driven by acquisitions and our strategic pricing and sourcing initiatives.
2024 年的一些財務亮點包括 GPC 總銷售額為 235 億美元,與 2023 年相比增加約 4 億美元或 1.7%。我們的銷售成長包括來自策略性收購的 260 個基點的成長,這抵消了疲軟的市場環境,尤其是工業領域的市場環境。調整後的毛利率增加了 70 個基點,這得益於收購以及我們的策略定價和採購措施。
We generated strong cash flows with $1.3 billion of operating cash flow. And we executed a global restructuring to proactively offset softer market conditions, which led to $45 million in cost savings in 2024, with more to be realized in 2025.
我們產生了強勁的現金流,營運現金流達 13 億美元。我們實施了全球重組,積極抵消疲軟的市場環境,在 2024 年節省了 4,500 萬美元的成本,並將在 2025 年實現更多節省。
In addition to our investment in the business, we returned over $700 million or nearly 60% of our operating cashflow to our shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. As a sign of confidence in the long-term outlook for GPC, this morning, our Board approved a 3% increase to our dividend, marking the 69th consecutive year we've increased the GPC dividend.
除了對業務的投資外,我們還以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了超過 7 億美元或近 60% 的營運現金流。作為對 GPC 長期前景的信心的表現,今天上午,我們的董事會批准將股息提高 3%,這標誌著我們連續第 69 年增加 GPC 股息。
Turning to our results by business segment, in 2024, total sales for global industrial were $8.7 billion, a decrease of 1.4% compared to last year, with comparable sales down 2%, as weak market conditions resulted in reduced customer demand for the full year.
以業務部門劃分的業績來看,2024 年,全球工業總銷售額為 87 億美元,較去年下降 1.4%,可比銷售額下降 2%,原因是市場條件疲軟導致全年客戶需求減少。
Within Motion's business, in 2024, our core MRO and maintenance business, which accounts for approximately 80% of Motion sales, was essentially flat with the prior year. Our corporate account customers, which account for approximately 45% of Motion sales, saw a low single-digit growth.
在 Motion 的業務中,到 2024 年,我們的核心 MRO 和維修業務(約佔 Motion 銷售額的 80%)與前一年基本持平。我們的企業帳戶客戶約佔 Motion 銷售額的 45%,實現了個位數的低成長。
Looking at our diverse collection of industries served, we saw growth across four of our 14 end markets, with strength in pulp and paper, mining, and DC and logistics. This growth was offset by softer demand in markets like equipment and machinery, automotive, and metals.
縱觀我們服務的多元化產業,我們發現在 14 個終端市場中,有 4 個實現了成長,其中紙漿和造紙、採礦以及配送和物流領域實力雄厚。但設備機械、汽車、金屬等市場的需求疲軟抵消了這一成長。
The remaining 20% of Motion's sales originates from more capital-intensive projects, including our value-added service offering. This business was down mid-to-high single digits for the year. While we've seen customers delay certain capital-intensive projects given the environment, we remain bullish on the long-term opportunities in this portion of the business as customer spending rebounds.
Motion 剩餘 20% 的銷售額來自資本密集項目,包括我們提供的增值服務。該業務全年下滑了中高個位數。儘管我們看到客戶鑑於當前情況推遲了某些資本密集型項目,但隨著客戶支出反彈,我們仍然看好該業務領域的長期機會。
For the full year, global industrial segment EBITDA was $1.1 billion, which was 12.6% of sales, a decrease of 20 basis points versus the prior year. While profitability continues to be impacted by sales deleverage and inflationary cost pressures, we're confident that our strategic initiatives and cost actions will drive margin expansion as market conditions improve.
全年全球工業部門 EBITDA 為 11 億美元,佔銷售額的 12.6%,較上年下降 20 個基點。儘管獲利能力持續受到銷售去槓桿和通膨成本壓力的影響,但我們相信,隨著市場條件的改善,我們的策略舉措和成本行動將推動利潤率擴大。
Despite the tough market in 2024, Motion North America improved gross margin and delivered EBITDA margin of approximately 13%, down only approximately 10 basis points versus prior year. Over the last five years, Motion has expanded its profit margin by over 300 basis points.
儘管 2024 年市場情況嚴峻,但 Motion North America 的毛利率仍有所提高,EBITDA 利潤率達到約 13%,較前一年僅下降約 10 個基點。在過去五年中,Motion 的利潤率提高了 300 多個基點。
While the industry faces temporary headwinds, we're energized about how Motion is positioned in the market and the opportunities available to us. We operate in a large and highly fragmented market. And despite being the number one player in the industry, we still hold less than 10% market share, which reinforces the significant runway we have for continued profitable growth.
儘管該行業面臨暫時的逆風,但我們對 Motion 在市場中的定位以及我們可獲得的機會充滿信心。我們在一個龐大且高度分散的市場中運作。儘管我們是該行業第一大企業,但我們的市場份額仍然不到 10%,這進一步證明我們擁有繼續實現盈利增長的巨大潛力。
During 2024, we executed a disciplined succession plan at Motion by promoting James Howe as President. James has a 35-year track record in the industry and started in the business as a Motion field sales rep. The Motion senior leadership team has 200 years of experience at Motion and 270 cumulative years of experience in the industry.
2024 年,我們透過提拔詹姆斯·豪 (James Howe) 為總裁,在 Motion 實施了嚴格的繼任計劃。詹姆斯在該行業擁有 35 年的經驗,最初是以運動控制現場銷售代表的身份進入該行業的。Motion 高階領導團隊在 Motion 擁有 200 年的經驗,並且在該行業擁有累計 270 年的經驗。
Most importantly, we go to market with an unmatched team of local, highly technical accountant product specialists that know our customers' operations and the equipment they utilize as they create tailored solutions to keep their businesses running smoothly. Recall, in many instances, our Motion associates are physically located in customers' facilities.
最重要的是,我們擁有一支無與倫比的當地高技術會計產品專家團隊,他們了解客戶的營運和他們所使用的設備,因此可以創建量身定制的解決方案,確保客戶的業務順利運作。回想一下,在許多情況下,我們的 Motion 員工實際上位於客戶的設施內。
Motion leads the industry with its scaled technical capabilities, value-added solutions, and local support offering. Complemented by our national network of both branches and distribution centers, as well as unparalleled investment in inventory, we believe Motion offers the best value proposition regardless of customer size, type, or location.
Motion 憑藉其規模化的技術能力、增值解決方案和本地支援服務引領業界。憑藉我們遍布全國的分支機構和配送中心網絡以及無與倫比的庫存投資,我們相信,無論客戶規模、類型或位置如何,Motion 都能提供最佳的價值主張。
In 2024, we further expanded our depth of inventory by over 60,000 SKUs while simultaneously improving inventory efficiency. Our network enables the right inventory strategically located in the right markets to ensure we're at our customers' facility promptly to get them back up and running.
2024年,我們進一步擴大了庫存深度超過60,000個SKU,同時提高了庫存效率。我們的網路能夠將合適的庫存策略性地放置在合適的市場,從而確保我們能夠及時到達客戶的工廠,使它們恢復正常運作。
In addition to the traditional MRO and maintenance solutions, Motion also serves its customers with a robust value-add service offering, where we help our customers improve their operations, drive productivity, and create value. This includes designing and delivering solutions such as fluid power systems, electrical and automation systems, and conveyor systems to solve specific customer applications.
除了傳統的 MRO 和維護解決方案外,Motion 還為客戶提供強大的增值服務,幫助客戶改善營運、提高生產力並創造價值。這包括設計和提供流體動力系統、電氣和自動化系統以及輸送系統等解決方案,以解決特定的客戶應用。
Additionally, Motion offers its customers predictive and preventative maintenance solutions to help minimize the risk of an unexpected part failure. We've installed thousands of sensors into our customers' facilities that give them critical insights into the cycle times and the health of their operations. These solutions are designed to improve throughput and productivity, helping our customers optimize their operations.
此外,Motion 還為客戶提供預測性和預防性維護解決方案,以幫助最大限度地降低意外零件故障的風險。我們在客戶的設施中安裝了數千個感測器,為他們提供有關週期時間和營運健康狀況的重要見解。這些解決方案旨在提高產量和生產力,幫助我們的客戶優化他們的營運。
Motion extends its competitive advantage with its repair and service offering, including our new state-of-the-art facility in Houston. This team works hand-in-hand with customers to diagnose the root cause of machinery problems, perform repairs, and train their teams on proper installation and maintenance of equipment. Key end markets where we provide these services include mining, steel, cement, and paper mills.
Motion 透過提供維修和服務擴大了其競爭優勢,包括我們位於休士頓的新的最先進的設施。團隊與客戶攜手合作,診斷機械問題的根本原因,進行維修,並培訓他們的團隊正確安裝和維護設備。我們提供這些服務的主要終端市場包括採礦、鋼鐵、水泥和造紙廠。
In 2024, we realigned our value-add solutions team with our core distribution leadership to ensure a seamless and coordinated customer experience. This differentiated approach improves our ability to deliver our full Motion offering to each customer. While industrial market conditions remain challenged, we're confident in Motion's ability to navigate the near-term headwinds and continue to drive value for our customers.
2024 年,我們重新調整了增值解決方案團隊與核心分銷領導層,以確保無縫、協調的客戶體驗。這種差異化的方法提高了我們向每位客戶提供全套動態產品的能力。儘管工業市場狀況仍然充滿挑戰,但我們相信 Motion 有能力應對短期阻力並繼續為客戶創造價值。
Our leadership position, unmatched technical expertise, and broad portfolio of scaled solutions position us well to capitalize on growth opportunities as industrial activity recovers. This, coupled with opportunities with advancing trends around nearshoring, have us excited about what's ahead for Motion.
我們的領導地位、無與倫比的技術專長以及廣泛的規模解決方案組合使我們能夠在工業活動復甦時充分利用成長機會。這一切,加上近岸外包發展趨勢帶來的機遇,讓我們對 Motion 的前景充滿期待。
We're cautiously optimistic to see three months of sequential improvement in PMI with January at 50.9. However, we believe it's prudent to be cautious with our enthusiasm until additional evidence of a sustained market recovery is clear.
我們謹慎樂觀地認為 PMI 將連續三個月改善,1 月將達到 50.9。然而,我們認為,在市場持續復甦的更多證據出現之前,謹慎對待我們的熱情是明智之舉。
Turning to the global automotive segment. Total sales in 2024 were $14.8 billion, an increase of approximately 4% compared to last year. Automotive sales growth was comprised of a benefit of 370 basis points from acquisitions, largely in the US and flat comparable sales growth.
轉向全球汽車領域。2024年總銷售額為148億美元,比去年增長約4%。汽車銷售成長包括來自收購的 370 個基點的收益(主要在美國)以及持平的可比銷售額成長。
The moderation in the sales benefit from inflation continued to be a factor in our year-over-year comparisons. As expected, global automotive sales inflation remained below 1% throughout 2024. For the full year, global automotive segment EBITDA was $1.3 billion, which was 8.7% of sales, a decrease of 70 basis points versus 2023. Our results for global automotive reflect ongoing pressures from a soft market environment and cost pressures, particularly in Europe and the US.
通貨膨脹帶來的銷售收益減緩仍是我們進行年比比較的因素。如預期,2024 年全球汽車銷售通膨率將維持在 1% 以下。全年全球汽車部門 EBITDA 為 13 億美元,佔銷售額的 8.7%,較 2023 年下降 70 個基點。我們的全球汽車表現反映了疲軟的市場環境和成本壓力的持續壓力,尤其是在歐洲和美國。
Now let's turn to our automotive business performance by geography. Starting in the US, total sales were up approximately 3% in 2024 with roughly flat comparable sales growth. During the year, sales out to our commercial customers were flat, while sales out to do-it-yourself customers were down low single digits. Within commercial, we saw low single-digit growth in our NAPA AutoCare and other wholesale customer segments, while fleet and government was flat.
現在讓我們來看看按地區劃分的汽車業務表現。從美國開始,2024 年總銷售額成長約 3%,可比銷售額成長大致持平。本年度,我們對商業客戶的銷售額持平,而 DIY 客戶的銷售額則下降了個位數。在商業領域,我們看到 NAPA AutoCare 和其他批發客戶群呈現低個位數成長,而車隊和政府則持平。
Major account sales were down low single digits, but showed sequential improvement through the back half of the year. Looking at our comparable store sales, both sales out from company-owned stores and comparable sales into independent stores performed relatively in line with each other, approximately flat for the year.
主要帳戶銷售額下降了個位數,但下半年呈現連續改善趨勢。從我們的可比店銷售來看,公司自有店的銷售額和獨立店的可比銷售額表現相對一致,全年基本持平。
Turning to our product category performance for the year, we continue to see relative strength from our nondiscretionary repair categories, which accounts for approximately 50% of NAPA's business, up low single digits in 2024. General maintenance and service categories like braking, filters, and chemicals, which represents approximately 35% of our business, were also up low single digits versus the prior year.
談到我們今年的產品類別表現,我們繼續看到非必需維修類別的相對強勢,這佔 NAPA 業務的約 50%,到 2024 年將成長個位數。煞車、過濾器和化學品等一般維護和服務類別約占我們業務的 35%,與前一年相比也成長了個位數。
And lastly, we continue to see softer demand in discretionary categories, which represent approximately 15% of the business, down mid-single digits from last year. While 2024 market growth proved to be softer than expected, we were encouraged by the progress we've made to improve NAPA's capabilities, service, and position in the market. Our back-to-basics mindset has driven material improvement in our internal metrics around inventory stocking levels, customer service, and on-time delivery.
最後,我們繼續看到非必需品類別的需求疲軟,這些類別約佔業務的 15%,比去年下降了中位數個位數。雖然 2024 年的市場成長被證明比預期弱,但我們在改善 NAPA 的能力、服務和市場地位方面取得的進展令我們感到鼓舞。我們回歸本源的思維方式推動了我們在庫存備貨水準、客戶服務和準時交貨等內部指標方面的實質改善。
As an example, we're making notable progress improving the operations inside our current DCs. Our internal metric for service levels from our DCs to stores improved almost 800 basis points in 2024. And our safety metrics improved by approximately 20%. And we did all of this while investing in inventory and flowing more product through our facilities to ensure we have the right part in the right place at the right time.
舉例來說,我們在改善目前 DC 內部的營運方面取得了顯著進展。2024年,從配送中心到商店的服務水準內部指標提高了近 800 個基點。我們的安全指標提高了約20%。我們在進行所有這些工作的同時,也投資了庫存,並透過我們的設施輸送更多的產品,以確保我們在正確的時間在正確的地點擁有正確的零件。
While much of the focus at NAPA in 2024 was ensuring we are executing the key aspects of the customer experience at a high level, we continue to make investments in the business to position us for long-term success. We're investing in the supply chain at NAPA and completed the expansion of our Indianapolis distribution center, increasing capacity to support growing customer demand and improve delivery speed across key markets.
雖然 NAPA 在 2024 年的主要重點是確保我們以高水準執行客戶體驗的關鍵方面,但我們仍將繼續對業務進行投資,以取得長期成功。我們正在投資 NAPA 的供應鏈,並完成了印第安納波利斯配送中心的擴建,以提高支援不斷增長的客戶需求的能力並提高主要市場的交付速度。
This facility includes a significant technology and automation upgrade, which will drive cost efficiencies and inventory productivity. In addition, in 2025, we're leveraging our global scale to launch a professional hand-in-service tool and equipment offering that will allow us to further capitalize on a large and growing industry opportunity.
該設施包括重大的技術和自動化升級,這將提高成本效率和庫存生產率。此外,2025 年,我們將利用我們的全球規模推出專業的手動服務工具和設備產品,這將使我們能夠進一步利用巨大且不斷增長的行業機會。
Our acquisition of MPEC and Walker are on track relative to operational plans and financial targets. In total, we've integrated approximately 55% of the stores into NAPA technology platforms, which enables consistent control of local operations. In 2024, the transactions delivered sales, gross margin, and operating profit margin benefit as expected. We've been pleased with the progress to date, and we'll continue to execute our post-close integration strategies.
我們對 MPEC 和 Walker 的收購正在按照營運計劃和財務目標順利進行。總體而言,我們已將大約 55% 的商店整合到 NAPA 技術平台中,從而實現對本地營運的一致控制。2024年,交易帶來了預期的銷售額、毛利率和營業利潤率收益。我們對迄今為止的進展感到滿意,並將繼續執行我們的收盤後整合策略。
While the broader consumer continues to feel pressure from macro headwinds like high interest rates and persistent cost inflation, the automotive aftermarket industry fundamentals remain supportive of long-term growth, including increasing miles driven and aging car park, and high new and used vehicle pricing. In addition, we view commercial customers as the growth engine of the industry as the complexity of vehicles continues to increase.
雖然廣大消費者繼續感受到高利率和持續的成本通膨等宏觀不利因素的壓力,但汽車售後市場行業基本面仍然支持長期增長,包括行駛里程的增加和停車場的老化,以及新車和二手車的高價格。此外,隨著車輛複雜性不斷增加,我們將商業客戶視為產業成長引擎。
With this backdrop, NAPA operates from a position of strength with 80% of our business concentrated in commercial, supported by our network of more than 6,000 store locations and approaching 20,000 auto care centers. In 2025, NAPA will celebrate 100 years of history, a truly remarkable accomplishment. We're thrilled to celebrate this milestone, but we're even more excited for what the next 100 years is going to bring.
在此背景下,NAPA 擁有強大的營運實力,80% 的業務集中在商業領域,並由我們的 6,000 多家店鋪和近 20,000 個汽車護理中心網路提供支援。2025 年,NAPA 將慶祝成立 100 週年,這是一項真正了不起的成就。我們很高興慶祝這一里程碑,但我們更為期待未來 100 年會發生什麼。
As we look at our results outside the US, in Europe, throughout 2024, we navigated a weak economic backdrop, which resulted in a lack of market growth for the aftermarket. In 2024, total sales were up 6% in local currency, with flat comparable sales growth.
當我們回顧 2024 年美國以外、歐洲的表現時,我們發現整個 2024 年的經濟背景都很疲軟,導致售後市場缺乏成長。2024 年,以當地貨幣計算的總銷售額成長 6%,可比銷售額成長持平。
These results reflect ongoing execution of our initiatives, including key account wins, expanding the NAPA brand, and strategic bolt-on acquisitions. In 2024, we grew NAPA branded sales 16% versus 2023 to EUR500 million, a remarkable accomplishment since its launch five years ago and a testament to the power of the NAPA brand.
這些結果反映了我們計劃的持續執行,包括贏得大客戶、擴大 NAPA 品牌以及策略性附加收購。2024 年,NAPA 品牌銷售額較 2023 年成長 16%,達到 5 億歐元,這是五年前推出以來的非凡成就,也是 NAPA 品牌實力的證明。
The rollout of NAPA across Europe has been a competitive differentiator, especially in a challenging market and has far exceeded our expectations. NAPA branded sales now represent approximately 15% of our sales in Europe. And we can see a path of this penetration climbing to over 20% over the next four to five years.
NAPA 在整個歐洲的推出已經成為一種競爭優勢,尤其是在充滿挑戰的市場中,並且遠遠超出了我們的預期。NAPA 品牌銷售額目前約占我們歐洲銷售額的 15%。我們可以看到,未來四到五年,這項滲透率將攀升至20%以上。
In our other international geographies, Asia-Pacific and Canada, we continue to enjoy leading market positions despite challenging market conditions. In Asia-Pacific, sales in 2024 increased 6% in local currency with comparable sales growth up approximately 4%.
在我們的其他國際地區,亞太地區和加拿大,儘管市場條件充滿挑戰,我們仍然保持領先的市場地位。在亞太地區,2024 年的銷售額以當地貨幣計算成長 6%,可比銷售額成長約 4%。
Our Asia-Pacific team continues to execute at a high level, delivering their fifth consecutive year of double-digit profit growth. Their ability to drive market share gains, deliver strong operating leverage, and strategically and consistently invest for the future has been instrumental in their success.
我們的亞太團隊繼續保持高水準運作,連續第五年實現兩位數的利潤成長。他們推動市場佔有率成長、提供強大的營運槓桿、以及為未來進行策略性和持續性投資的能力對他們的成功至關重要。
In Canada, total sales in 2024 increased approximately 1% in local currency, with comparable sales growth down approximately 2%. Our Canadian team continues to execute well despite a softer macroeconomic backdrop and a more cautious consumer. As I mentioned, our accomplishments and results around the world are bolstered by investment in technology and complemented by strategic acquisitions.
在加拿大,2024 年的總銷售額以當地貨幣計算成長約 1%,可比銷售額成長下降約 2%。儘管宏觀經濟背景較弱且消費者更加謹慎,但我們的加拿大團隊仍然表現良好。正如我所提到的,我們在全球所取得的成就和績效得益於技術投資以及策略性收購。
Acquisitions have been a hallmark of GPC, and 2024 was no different. During the year, we made progress on our initiative to own more of our NAPA stores here in the US, completing the acquisition of more than 500 stores, mostly from our independent owners. Our store footprint in the US is now approximately 35% company-owned with the balance being our independently owned stores.
收購一直是 GPC 的標誌,2024 年也不例外。今年,我們在美國擁有更多 NAPA 商店的計劃取得了進展,完成了對 500 多家商店的收購,其中大部分來自我們的獨立所有者。目前,我們在美國擁有的門市約有 35% 為公司自有門市,其餘為獨立擁有的門市。
Over time, we see a path to bring our network closer to a 50/50 mix, with our independent owners always continuing to play a critical role in our network, particularly in smaller and more rural markets. In addition, Motion acquired four bolt-on acquisitions in 2024 to build upon its technical and value-added solutions capabilities. And we've remained active to start 2025.
隨著時間的推移,我們看到了一條讓我們的網路更接近 50/50 組合的道路,我們的獨立所有者始終在我們的網路中發揮關鍵作用,特別是在較小和較偏遠的市場。此外,Motion 於 2024 年進行了四次附加收購,以增強其技術和增值解決方案能力。到 2025 年,我們仍將保持活躍。
Going forward, we believe M&A will continue to play an important part of our growth profile in both our automotive and industrial business. We play in two large and fragmented markets and enjoy the flexibility of a strong balance sheet.
展望未來,我們相信併購將繼續在我們的汽車和工業業務的成長中發揮重要作用。我們在兩個龐大且分散的市場中開展業務,並享有強大資產負債表帶來的彈性。
Beyond M&A, our global investments in technology are advancing well. This year, we're focused on improving catalog and search capabilities using Google Cloud, enabling us to deliver a more seamless experience, particularly for our commercial customers.
除了併購之外,我們在全球技術方面的投資也進展順利。今年,我們專注於使用 Google Cloud 改進目錄和搜尋功能,以便我們提供更無縫的體驗,尤其是為我們的商業客戶提供體驗。
As examples, within our automotive catalog, we've made material enhancements that help our commercial customers find what they need, leading to lower order cancellations and returns. And we're now leveraging machine learning and automation to help our catalog continuously improve itself without the need for manual data entry.
舉例來說,在我們的汽車目錄中,我們進行了材料改進,幫助我們的商業客戶找到他們需要的東西,從而減少訂單取消和退貨。我們現在利用機器學習和自動化來幫助我們的目錄不斷改進,而無需手動輸入資料。
Within search, we used Google Cloud to build an automotive specific search experience, focused on our commercial customers. Our search results are now four times faster, two times more accurate all at half the cost. There are numerous other examples of progress within recent technology investments where we've leveraged our global scale to make us smarter, faster, better.
在搜尋領域,我們使用 Google Cloud 建立了針對汽車的特定搜尋體驗,專注於我們的商業客戶。我們的搜尋結果現在速度提高了四倍,準確度提高了兩倍,而成本卻降低了一半。在最近的技術投資中,還有許多其他取得進展的例子,我們利用我們的全球規模使我們變得更聰明、更快、更好。
For example, the recent completion of our global HR rollout with Workday to create a standardized company-wide platform that simplified 40 disparate HR platforms to one. In addition, we've ramped up our capabilities at our Poland tech center, now comprised of nearly 300 engineers that lead global technology initiatives across pricing, inventory, catalog, search, and cybersecurity.
例如,我們最近與Workday合作完成了全球人力資源推廣,創建了一個標準化的全公司平台,將40個不同的人力資源平台簡化為一個。此外,我們還增強了波蘭技術中心的能力,目前該中心擁有近 300 名工程師,領導定價、庫存、目錄、搜尋和網路安全方面的全球技術計畫。
Not only has the tech center added capabilities and speed, but also resulted in material cost savings. Less visible, but critically important, we've made material progress to simplify our core tech infrastructure as we've improved stability, performance, and scalability.
該技術中心不僅增強了能力和速度,而且還節省了材料成本。雖然不太顯眼,但至關重要的是,隨著穩定性、效能和可擴展性的提高,我們在簡化核心技術基礎設施方面取得了實質進展。
Looking ahead into 2025, we have opportunities to build on our momentum and drive organic growth by enhancing our customer value proposition, expanding market share, and improving profitability through cost discipline. While we expect soft market conditions to persist into the first half of 2025, we anticipate gradual improvement as the year progresses.
展望 2025 年,我們有機會透過增強客戶價值主張、擴大市場份額以及透過成本控制提高盈利能力來鞏固我們的發展勢頭並推動有機增長。雖然我們預計疲軟的市場狀況將持續到 2025 年上半年,但我們預計隨著時間的推移市場狀況將逐步改善。
A key aspect of our outlook is the improvement in market conditions for both industrial and a rebound in the European landscape. Bert will walk you through the details of our assumptions in a few minutes. Our continued investments in strategic initiatives reflect our commitment to driving growth and improving efficiency.
我們展望的一個關鍵面向是工業市場狀況的改善和歐洲情勢的反彈。幾分鐘後,伯特將向您詳細講解我們的假設。我們對策略性舉措的持續投資反映了我們推動成長和提高效率的承諾。
We're confident these actions will support sustainable growth and long-term value creation. While committed to our long-term strategic investments, we're also balancing the current environment with prudent and urgent cost actions. Our global restructuring efforts announced last year have progressed ahead of plan, delivering cost savings at the high end of expectations.
我們相信這些行動將支持永續成長和長期價值創造。在致力於長期策略投資的同時,我們也正在透過審慎和緊急的成本行動來平衡當前環境。我們去年宣布的全球重組措施已經提前完成計劃,成本節約效果超乎預期。
Today, we announced that we're targeting an additional $100 million to $125 million of savings in 2025. These efforts continue our focus to simplify our operations and improve productivity. Collectively, our actions across 2024 and 2025 will position us for approximately $200 million in annualized cost savings beginning in 2026.
今天,我們宣布,我們的目標是到 2025 年再省 1 億至 1.25 億美元。這些努力延續了我們簡化營運和提高生產力的重點。總的來說,我們在 2024 年和 2025 年採取的行動將使我們從 2026 年開始節省約 2 億美元的年度成本。
In summary, while our full-year financial results were impacted by challenging market conditions, we're encouraged by the operational progress we've made across our business. GPC's legacy of operational excellence, exceptional customer service, and financial discipline continue to guide us.
總而言之,雖然我們的全年財務表現受到了嚴峻的市場條件的影響,但我們對整個業務所取得的營運進展感到鼓舞。GPC 的卓越營運、優質客戶服務和財務紀律傳統將繼續指導我們。
Our market-leading automotive and industrial businesses are well positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities, driven by supportive long-term industry fundamentals while leveraging our size, global scale, and expertise as a competitive advantage. We remain focused on creating value through a balanced capital allocation strategy, including reinvesting in our business, pursuing disciplined and accretive M&A, and returning capital to shareholders through our long-standing dividend.
我們市場領先的汽車和工業業務能夠充分利用成長機會,在長期產業基本面的推動下,同時利用我們的規模、全球規模和專業知識作為競爭優勢。我們仍然專注於透過平衡的資本配置策略創造價值,包括對我們的業務進行再投資、進行有紀律的增值性併購、以及透過長期股息向股東返還資本。
In closing, I want to thank our GPC teammates for their continued hard work and dedication to serving our customers and to our shareholders for their continued trust and support. We look forward to building on our momentum in 2025 and well beyond.
最後,我要感謝我們的 GPC 隊友們一直以來的努力和為客戶服務的奉獻精神,也感謝我們股東們一直以來的信任和支持。我們期待在 2025 年及以後繼續保持良好勢頭。
And now I'll turn the call over to Bert.
現在我將電話轉給伯特。
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Will, and thanks to everyone for joining the call. My remarks this morning will focus on two key areas: our fourth-quarter performance, which was at the high end of our expectations; and our outlook for 2025.
謝謝,威爾,也謝謝大家參加電話會議。我今天早上的演講將集中在兩個關鍵領域:我們第四季度的業績達到我們預期的高位;以及我們對 2025 年的展望。
Our fourth-quarter results reflect revenue growth from the benefits of acquired businesses, which more than offset the negative impact of weak market conditions. As expected, despite the revenue growth and gross margin expansion we realized, earnings were down in the fourth quarter due to headwinds from planned investments in the business and cost inflation, although further cost actions and better results from our global restructuring allowed us to finish 2024 modestly ahead of our expectations when we began the quarter.
我們的第四季業績反映了收購業務帶來的營收成長,足以抵消疲軟市場條件帶來的負面影響。正如預期的那樣,儘管我們實現了收入增長和毛利率擴大,但由於業務計劃投資和成本上漲帶來的阻力,第四季度盈利有所下降,儘管進一步的成本行動和全球重組帶來的更好結果使我們在 2024 年結束時略微超出了我們本季初的預期。
Our discussion will focus primarily on adjusted results, which exclude the nonrecurring costs related to our global restructuring program, costs related to the acquisition of MPEC and Walker, and a charge to write down inventory related to a global rebranding and relaunch of a key product category. During the fourth quarter, these costs totaled $125 million of pretax adjustments or $91 million after tax, with $62 million attributable to the inventory write-down.
我們的討論將主要集中在調整後的結果上,其中不包括與我們的全球重組計劃相關的非經常性成本、與收購 MPEC 和 Walker 相關的成本以及與全球品牌重塑和重新推出關鍵產品類別相關的庫存減記費用。第四季度,這些成本總計 1.25 億美元(稅前調整後)或 9,100 萬美元(稅後),其中 6,200 萬美元歸因於庫存減記。
Starting with sales, total GPC sales increased 3.3% in the fourth quarter, including a benefit from acquisitions of 320 basis points and the benefit of an additional selling day in the US totaling 110 basis points. These items were partially offset by slightly negative comparable sales growth, as weak market conditions and lower customer demand, particularly in industrial and Europe, impacted our sales performance.
從銷售額開始,第四季度 GPC 總銷售額成長了 3.3%,其中包括收購帶來的 320 個基點的收益以及美國額外銷售日帶來的總計 110 個基點的收益。這些項目的部分影響被略微為負的可比銷售額成長所抵消,因為疲軟的市場條件和較低的客戶需求(特別是在工業和歐洲)影響了我們的銷售業績。
Looking at the quarterly sales by business unit. Starting with our global industrial segment, sales in the fourth quarter decreased approximately 1% compared to prior year, with comparable sales down 2%. During the quarter, we had one extra selling day compared to the fourth quarter of last year, which positively impacted sales growth by approximately 150 basis points.
查看按業務部門劃分的季度銷售額。從我們的全球工業部門開始,第四季的銷售額較上年同期下降約 1%,可比銷售額下降 2%。本季度,與去年第四季相比,我們增加了一天銷售日,這對銷售成長產生了約 150 個基點的正面影響。
Average daily sales were down low single digits in October and November and down mid-single digits in December. As expected, our December results were impacted by the timing of the holiday and extended customer idling during the last two weeks of the year, given the weaker demand environment.
10月和11月的平均日銷售額下降了低個位數,12月的平均日銷售額下降了中個位數。正如預期的那樣,由於需求環境較弱,我們 12 月的業績受到假期時間和今年最後兩週客戶閒置時間延長的影響。
As we look at global automotive, total sales in the fourth quarter increased approximately 6% compared to the prior year with comparable sales up slightly. In addition to the benefits from acquired businesses, during the fourth quarter, we had one extra selling day in the US, which positively impacted global automotive sales growth by approximately 90 basis points.
綜觀全球汽車市場,第四季總銷量較上年同期成長約6%,可比銷量略有成長。除了收購業務帶來的好處外,第四季度我們在美國增加了一個銷售日,這對全球汽車銷售成長產生了約 90 個基點的正面影響。
By geography, starting in the US, total sales were up approximately 7% in the fourth quarter, aided by acquisitions with comparable sales flat. The extra day versus prior year positively impacted sales growth by approximately 170 basis points. Our average daily sales cadence through the quarter was positive in all three months.
從地理來看,從美國開始,第四季總銷售額成長了約 7%,這得益於收購,而可比銷售額持平。與去年相比,額外一天對銷售額成長產生了約 170 個基點的正面影響。我們整個季度的三個月平均每日銷售節奏都是正值。
And within our DIY and DIFM customer segments, the trends in the fourth quarter were generally consistent with the full-year commentary that Will shared. In our international markets, sales in Europe during the fourth quarter increased 3% in local currency with comparable sales down 1% as a result of weak macroeconomic conditions.
在我們的 DIY 和 DIFM 客戶群中,第四季度的趨勢與 Will 分享的全年評論基本一致。在我們的國際市場,由於宏觀經濟條件疲軟,第四季度歐洲銷售額以當地貨幣計算成長了 3%,而可比銷售額下降了 1%。
In Asia-Pacific, sales in the fourth quarter increased 14% in local currency, with comparable sales up approximately 6%. Both commercial and retail segments delivered solid growth with notable strength in retail. And finally, in Canada, total sales in the fourth quarter increased 1% in local currency, with comparable sales down approximately 1%, driven by challenging economic conditions.
在亞太地區,第四季銷售額以當地貨幣計算成長了 14%,可比銷售額成長了約 6%。商業和零售領域均實現穩健成長,零售業表現尤為突出。最後,在加拿大,受嚴峻的經濟情勢影響,第四季總銷售額以當地貨幣計算成長了 1%,而可比銷售額下降了約 1%。
As we turn back to our consolidated results with respect to gross margin, after adjusting for the $62 million charge to write down inventory related to our global product rebranding, our adjusted gross margin was 36.9% in the fourth quarter, an increase of 50 basis points from last year.
回顧我們的毛利率綜合業績,在調整與全球產品品牌重塑相關的 6,200 萬美元庫存減記費用後,我們第四季度的調整後毛利率為 36.9%,比去年同期增加了 50 個基點。
As expected, the improvement in gross margin was driven by acquisitions, primarily at US automotive. Our adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales for the fourth quarter was 29.4%, up 210 basis points year over year and in line with our expectations. This deleverage can be attributed to the following factors: first, approximately 80 basis points from cost inflation, primarily in salaries and wages as well as rent and freight expense; second, approximately 60 basis points from acquired businesses, which represents the isolated impact of the SG&A of these acquisitions.
如預期,毛利率的增加主要得益於收購,尤其是針對美國汽車產業的收購。我們在第四季調整後的銷售、一般及行政支出佔銷售額的百分比為 29.4%,較去年同期成長 210 個基點,符合我們的預期。去槓桿主要有以下幾個因素:首先,約80個基點的成本通膨,主要體現在薪資、租金和運費等方面;第二,來自收購業務的約 60 個基點,代表了這些收購的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的單獨影響。
When taken together with the improved gross margin, the net operating profit benefit from acquisitions to GPC is positive. Further, as we capture the synergies we expect from these acquisitions, the SG&A impact will abate over time. Third, we experienced approximately 60 basis points of deleverage related to a reserve adjustment for product liability claims.
與毛利率的提高相結合,收購給 GPC 帶來的淨營業利潤收益是正數。此外,隨著我們從這些收購中獲得預期的協同效應,銷售、一般及行政費用的影響將隨著時間的推移而減弱。第三,我們經歷了與產品責任索賠準備金調整相關的約 60 個基點的去槓桿。
This deleverage was partially offset by approximately 35 basis points related to our global restructuring efforts. Notably, the 60-basis-point impact from the adjustment to our product liability reserve masked the sequential improvement in the deleverage in SG&A, as our cost actions and discipline in spending are having the intended effect of curbing the rate of increase.
這一去槓桿率被我們全球重組努力帶來的約 35 個基點所部分抵消。值得注意的是,產品責任準備金調整產生的 60 個基點的影響掩蓋了銷售、一般和行政費用去槓桿的連續改善,因為我們的成本行動和支出紀律正在產生抑制增長率的預期效果。
For the quarter, total adjusted EBITDA margin was 7.5%, down 180 basis points year over year. The decrease was primarily driven by the continued lower sales growth environment and higher cost inflation in wages, rent, and freight, partially offset by margin expansion driven by our acquisitions and a benefit from our restructuring efforts.
本季度,調整後總 EBITDA 利潤率為 7.5%,年減 180 個基點。下降的主要原因是銷售成長環境持續走低,以及薪資、租金和運費等成本通膨上升,但收購帶來的利潤率擴大和重組努力帶來的好處部分抵消了下降。
Total adjusted EBITDA margin for 2024 was 8.5%, down 80 basis points from 2023. Our fourth-quarter adjusted net income, which excludes nonrecurring expenses of $91 million after tax or $0.65 per diluted share, was $224 million or $1.61 per diluted share. Our full-year adjusted net income was $1.1 billion or $8.16 per diluted share.
2024 年總調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 8.5%,較 2023 年下降 80 個基點。我們第四季的調整後淨收入(不含稅後 9,100 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 0.65 美元的非經常性支出)為 2.24 億美元或每股攤薄收益 1.61 美元。我們全年調整後的淨收入為 11 億美元,即每股攤薄收入 8.16 美元。
In 2024, we took actions to better align our costs with the current environment and made significant progress on our global restructuring. We incurred restructuring costs of $220 million. And through our team's hard work, we realized approximately $45 million of cost savings in 2024 or a benefit of $0.24 per share.
2024年,我們採取行動,使成本更能與當前環境保持一致,並在全球重組方面取得了重大進展。我們發生了2.2億美元的重組成本。透過我們團隊的辛勤工作,我們在 2024 年實現了約 4500 萬美元的成本節約,或每股 0.24 美元的收益。
Turning to our cash flows, for the year, we generated $1.3 billion in cash from operations and $684 million in free cash flow. In 2024, we invested approximately $570 million back into the business in the form of capital expenditures as we continued investment in our supply chain and IT systems. In addition, we invested $1.1 billion in the form of strategic acquisitions, including the acquisition of our two largest NAPA independent owners, MPEC and Walker.
談到我們的現金流,今年,我們從營運活動中產生了 13 億美元的現金和 6.84 億美元的自由現金流。2024 年,我們繼續對供應鏈和 IT 系統進行投資,以資本支出的形式向業務重新投資了約 5.7 億美元。此外,我們還以策略性收購的形式投資了 11 億美元,包括收購我們最大的兩家 NAPA 獨立所有者 MPEC 和 Walker。
Now let's turn to our outlook for 2025. We expect diluted earnings per share, which includes the expenses related to our restructuring efforts, to be in the range of $6.95 to $7.45; and our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.75 to $8.25. Our 2025 outlook does not assume any changes in tariffs from the new administration and assumes current FX rates.
現在讓我們展望一下2025年。我們預計每股攤薄收益(其中包括與重組工作相關的費用)將在 6.95 美元至 7.45 美元之間;調整後每股攤薄收益在 7.75 美元至 8.25 美元之間。我們對 2025 年的展望並不假設新政府的關稅有任何變化,並假設當前的外匯匯率。
Our outlook for 2025 has been developed based on current weak market conditions and lower customer demand levels, as well as our expectations around the pace and timing of an improvement in market conditions. While the industries where we compete continue to enjoy supportive fundamentals, the near-term market conditions remain muted as our customers navigate cost inflation, high interest rates, a dynamic foreign currency market, and the emerging potential for impacts from tariffs.
我們對 2025 年的展望是基於當前疲軟的市場狀況和較低的客戶需求水平,以及我們對市場狀況改善的速度和時間的預期而製定的。雖然我們所競爭的產業持續享有支撐性基本面,但由於我們的客戶面臨成本通膨、高利率、動態外匯市場以及關稅影響的潛在影響,短期市場狀況仍然低迷。
In addition, as further detailed in our earnings release, our 2025 outlook excludes the previously announced one-time noncash charge we expect to record when our US pension plan termination settles expected for late 2025 or early 2026, which we intend to treat as a non-GAAP adjustment.
此外,正如我們在收益報告中進一步詳細說明的那樣,我們的 2025 年展望不包括先前宣布的一次性非現金費用,我們預計將在我們的美國退休金計劃終止結算時記錄在 2025 年底或 2026 年初,我們打算將其視為非 GAAP 調整。
We've excluded the impact of this charge from our 2025 guidance given the uncertainty of when the planned termination will settle, which is dependent upon several regulatory steps and approvals. We will provide additional updates regarding the expected timing of completing the pension plan termination as we move through 2025.
由於計劃終止何時解決存在不確定性,這取決於多項監管步驟和批准,因此我們將這項費用的影響排除在我們的 2025 年指引之外。我們將在 2025 年左右提供更多有關預計完成退休金計畫終止時間的更新。
On slide 12 of our earnings presentation, we've included an illustration of the key business drivers impacting our 2025 outlook. Let me take a moment and walk through the details of these components, which collectively produce approximately $1 of EPS headwind in 2025 when compared to 2024.
在我們的收益報告的第 12 張投影片中,我們說明了影響我們 2025 年展望的關鍵業務驅動因素。讓我花點時間來詳細了解這些組成部分的細節,與 2024 年相比,它們在 2025 年總共將產生約 1 美元的每股收益阻力。
First, as I just mentioned, we have begun the process to transition our US pension plan to a third-party insurance company, which we expect to complete in late 2025 or early 2026. In 2024, we recognized approximately $67 million of income from our US pension plan. In connection with the transition, the plan's assets have been reallocated. And as such, our pension income in 2025 will be significantly lower with an impact of an estimated $0.28 per share when compared to 2024.
首先,正如我剛才提到的,我們已經開始將我們的美國退休金計劃過渡到第三方保險公司的過程,我們預計將在 2025 年底或 2026 年初完成。2024 年,我們從美國退休金計畫中確認了約 6,700 萬美元的收入。隨著過渡,該計劃的資產已被重新分配。因此,與 2024 年相比,我們 2025 年的退休金收入將大幅下降,預計每股影響 0.28 美元。
Second, through the fourth quarter, we have seen notable moves in the foreign currency markets, which have put downward pressure on the euro, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar. The strengthening of the US dollar on a relative basis against these currencies is expected to have a negative impact of $0.15 per share year over year.
第二,第四季外匯市場出現明顯波動,對歐元、加幣、澳元等貨幣造成下行壓力。美元對這些貨幣相對走強預計將對每股產生 0.15 美元的負面影響。
Finally, our planned investments in the business will result in higher depreciation and interest expense. On a year-over-year basis, we expect these two items will negatively impact 2025 earnings per share by approximately $0.60. While we do not provide quarterly guidance, I do want to share our views on the earnings cadence for 2025 and our expectations for the first half.
最後,我們對該業務的計劃投資將導致更高的折舊和利息支出。與去年同期相比,我們預計這兩項將對 2025 年每股收益產生約 0.60 美元的負面影響。雖然我們不提供季度指導,但我確實想分享我們對 2025 年獲利節奏的看法以及對上半年的預期。
Our sales outlook for 2025 is predicated on a steady improvement through the course of the year, with weak market growth continuing into the first half of 2025 before improving in the second half. The pace and timing of the recovery of activity in both segments is a key element of our outlook.
我們對 2025 年的銷售前景預測為全年穩定改善,市場成長疲軟將持續到 2025 年上半年,然後在下半年有所改善。兩個領域活動復甦的速度和時機是我們展望的關鍵因素。
Given our views on the sales backdrop for 2025, within the EPS guidance range we provided for the year, we expect earnings to be down in the first and second quarters, rebounding with earnings growth in the third and fourth quarters, with results improving sequentially across each quarter. Based on our current expectations, we would expect first-half earnings to be down 15% to 20% and second-half earnings to be up 15% to 20%.
鑑於我們對 2025 年銷售背景的看法,在我們為今年提供的每股收益指導範圍內,我們預計第一季度和第二季度的收益將下降,第三季度和第四季度的收益將反彈並增長,並且每個季度的業績都會連續改善。根據我們目前的預期,我們預計上半年獲利將下降 15% 至 20%,下半年獲利將成長 15% 至 20%。
For the first quarter, we expect earnings to be down in the range of 20% to 30% from prior year, driven by several factors: one less selling day, lower pension income, higher depreciation and interest expense, the negative impact of a stronger US dollar, and a weaker industrial market when compared to the first quarter of 2024.
對於第一季度,我們預計收益將比去年同期下降 20% 至 30%,主要原因如下:銷售日減少一天、退休金收入減少、折舊和利息支出增加、美元走強的負面影響以及與 2024 年第一季相比工業市場走弱。
For the second quarter, we expect earnings to be down and pressured by the negative impact of depreciation, foreign currency, and interest as well as lower pension income. As we look to the specific elements of our outlook, we expect total sales growth to be in the range of 2% to 4%.
對於第二季度,我們預計獲利將下降,並受到貶值、外幣和利息以及退休金收入減少的負面影響的壓力。當我們展望未來的具體因素時,我們預計總銷售額成長率將在 2% 至 4% 之間。
Our outlook assumes that market growth will be roughly flat and that the benefit from inflation will be approximately 1%. It also assumes the benefit from M&A carryover and about 1 point of growth from our strategic initiatives. These benefits are partially offset by the one less day in the first quarter and about 1 point of headwind from foreign exchange.
我們的展望假設市場成長將大致持平,通膨收益將達到約 1%。它還假設來自併購結轉的收益和來自我們策略舉措的約 1 個百分點的增長。這些好處被第一季少一天的時間和大約 1 個百分點的外匯逆風部分抵消。
For gross margin, we expect 40 to 60 basis points of full-year gross margin expansion, driven by our continuous focus on our strategic sourcing and pricing initiatives, as well as a benefit from the independent store acquisitions in US automotive. Our outlook assumes that SG&A will deleverage between 20 and 40 basis points.
就毛利率而言,我們預計全年毛利率將成長 40 至 60 個基點,這得益於我們持續專注於策略採購和定價舉措,以及受益於美國汽車產業獨立門市收購。我們的展望假設銷售、一般及行政開支將去槓桿 20 至 40 個基點。
Our SG&A outlook is driven by continued cost inflation pressures and the impact of incremental SG&A from acquisitions in the US automotive business. These impacts are partially offset by the expected benefits from our global restructuring activities. For 2025, we are expanding upon our restructuring initiatives and taking further cost actions.
我們對銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 前景的驅動因素是持續的成本通膨壓力,以及美國汽車業務收購帶來的增量銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的影響。這些影響被我們全球重組活動預期帶來的收益部分抵銷。展望2025年,我們將擴大重組措施並採取進一步的成本行動。
We expect to incur additional restructuring expenses in 2025 in the range of $150 million to $180 million associated with these activities, with an expected benefit of $100 million to $125 million. When fully annualized in 2026, we expect our 2024 and 2025 restructuring efforts and cost actions to deliver approximately $200 million in cost savings.
我們預計,2025 年與這些活動相關的額外重組費用將在 1.5 億至 1.8 億美元之間,預期收益為 1 億至 1.25 億美元。當 2026 年完全年化時,我們預計 2024 年和 2025 年的重組工作和成本行動將帶來約 2 億美元的成本節省。
By business segment, we are guiding to the following: 2% to 4% total sales growth for the automotive segment with comparable sales growth in the flat to up 2% range. The expectation for automotive segment EBITDA margin is to be flat to up 10 basis points from last year.
按業務部門劃分,我們預期:汽車部門總銷售額成長 2% 至 4%,可比銷售額成長率在持平至上漲 2% 之間。預計汽車部門 EBITDA 利潤率將與去年持平或上漲 10 個基點。
For the industrial segment, we expect total sales growth of 2% to 4% with comparable sales growth in the 1% to 3% range. We expect global industrial segment EBITDA margin to expand by approximately 20 to 40 basis points year over year.
對於工業部門,我們預計總銷售額將成長 2% 至 4%,可比銷售額將成長 1% 至 3% 之間。我們預計全球工業部門 EBITDA 利潤率將年增約 20 至 40 個基點。
Turning to a few other items of interest, we expect to generate cash flow from operations in a range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion and free cash flow of $800 million to $1 billion. For CapEx, we expect approximately $400 million to $450 million or approximately 2% of revenue in 2025 at the high end of the range, moderated from 2024 as we drive further rigor and prioritization into capital allocation in light of the market conditions.
談到其他一些感興趣的項目,我們預計營運現金流將在 12 億至 14 億美元之間,自由現金流將在 8 億至 10 億美元之間。對於資本支出,我們預計 2025 年的最高水準約為 4 億至 4.5 億美元,或約佔收入的 2%,從 2024 年開始有所緩和,因為我們將根據市場情況進一步嚴格和優先考慮資本配置。
As we look at M&A, our global pipeline remains robust. And we will continue to remain disciplined in pursuing opportunities that create value. We expect our M&A capital deployment to moderate as well in 2025 to a range of $300 million to $350 million, as our investment in US automotive returns to a more normalized level of activity.
從併購角度來看,我們的全球通路依然強勁。我們將繼續嚴守紀律,尋求創造價值的機會。我們預計,隨著我們對美國汽車的投資恢復到更正常的水平,我們的併購資本配置也將在 2025 年降至 3 億至 3.5 億美元的範圍內。
As we start 2025, we continue to operate in challenging market conditions and are taking actions including advancing our global restructuring activities to improve the profitability of the business. We believe the backdrop of lower sales growth is market driven not specific to our business. And we stand well positioned once the cycle turns more favorable. We remain confident in the underlying fundamentals of our business, and we'll continue to invest in the business with a long-term focus.
進入2025年,我們將繼續在充滿挑戰的市場條件下運營,並採取行動,包括推進全球重組活動,以提高業務的獲利能力。我們認為,銷售成長放緩的背景是市場驅動,而非我們業務本身的問題。一旦經濟週期變得更加有利,我們就會處於有利地位。我們對我們業務的基本面仍然充滿信心,我們將繼續著眼於長期業務進行投資。
Thank you, and we will now turn it back to the operator for your questions.
謝謝您,現在我們將把您的問題轉回給接線生。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Scot Ciccarelli, Truist.
(操作員指令)Scot Ciccarelli,Truist。
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Hey, guys. Thanks. You guys have made a lot of investments, managing changes on the auto side. But North American comp growth has slowed further, and it is lagging a bunch of the other industry leaders.
嘿,大家好。謝謝。你們在管理汽車方面的變化方面做了很多投資。但北美同店銷售成長進一步放緩,並落後於其他產業領導者。
Can you help us reconcile operational improvements for some of this underperformance? And when would you expect to see your operational improvements start to show through on relative sales or market share?
您能幫助我們協調營運改善以解決部分績效不佳的問題嗎?您預計何時能看到營運改善在相對銷售額或市場佔有率上反映出來?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
(inaudible) Some of these are quick wins. Some of these are longer efforts. And so in the aggregate, I think we feel good about the body of work. And as you know, we're working with our independent owners more actively to make sure that they're energized and motivated to compete and sell in the market with us; making really good progress on our company-owned stores and feel really good about the team that we've got on the field.
(聽不清楚)其中一些是快速取勝的。其中一些是較長的努力。所以從總體上來說,我認為我們對我們的工作成果感到滿意。如您所知,我們正在與獨立業主更積極地合作,以確保他們充滿活力和動力與我們一起在市場上競爭和銷售;我們公司自有商店的經營取得了良好的進展,我們對我們在該領域的團隊感到非常滿意。
So a long-winded way of saying we're proud of the work that we're doing. Pleased with the progress but not satisfied, and look forward to continuing to progress as we move forward.
所以我可以用一種冗長的方式表達我們為自己所從事的工作感到自豪。對進展感到高興但並不滿足,並期待在前進的過程中繼續取得進步。
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Okay. I'm sorry, I might have missed the very beginning of that. Can you just help reconcile kind of the underperformance versus some of the others? So obviously, you've made a lot of improvements internally. I think the operator might have lost us for a second.
好的。抱歉,我可能錯過了最開始的內容。您能否幫助調解表現不佳的情況與其他一些情況?所以很明顯,你們在內部已經取得了許多進步。我想操作員可能一時之間就失去了我們。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, Scot, I think what I described is we're proud of the progress that we're making. We're putting the right work into the business. We're seeing strength in parts of our commercial business as a result of our targeted work.
是的,斯科特,我認為我所描述的是我們對所取得的進展感到自豪。我們正在為這項事業做出正確的努力。由於我們開展了有針對性的工作,我們的部分商業業務表現出了強勁實力。
And as we described, we're realizing some of the softness in some of the discretionary business, but pleased with the nondiscretionary and doing the right work to advance us moving forward. So each and every month, we're getting better. And we're excited about the progress as we look forward.
正如我們所描述的,我們意識到一些可自由支配的業務存在一些疲軟現象,但對非可自由支配的業務感到滿意,並採取了正確的措施推動我們向前發展。因此,我們每個月都會變得更好。我們對未來的進展感到興奮。
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Got it. I'll take the rest offline. Thanks, guys.
知道了。我將把其餘部分移至離線。謝謝大家。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Scot.
謝謝,斯科特。
Operator
Operator
Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的克里斯多福‧霍弗斯 (Christopher Horvers)。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, guys. My first question is, can you give us some guidance on how you think about the progression of the comps over the year? You gave good discussion around the earnings forecast.
謝謝。大家早安。我的第一個問題是,您能否給我們一些指導,告訴我們您對全年業績的進展有何看法?您對獲利預測進行了很好的討論。
But how are you expecting the ramp in comps in Motion in the US, NAPA business, in particular? And related to that and Scot's question, the US business didn't really get any benefit from what turned out to be a pretty good winter in the month of December. So can you talk about what happened there as well?
但是,您對美國 Motion 的同店銷售額、尤其是 NAPA 業務的成長有何預期?與此和斯科特的問題相關的是,美國企業實際上並沒有從 12 月相當好的冬季中獲得任何好處。那麼你能談談那裡發生了什麼事嗎?
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Chris. It's Bert. I'll give you a little bit more color on the cadence of 2025. I think at the highest level, just think about our sales outlook in terms of -- we exited the year with pretty weak conditions across the board. And as I think we've talked about, really one of the first times in GPC history, where all five of our business units are feeling the downward cycle in the same way.
你好,克里斯。是伯特。我將為您詳細介紹 2025 年的節奏。我認為,從最高層面來看,只要考慮一下我們的銷售前景——今年年底我們的整體狀況相當疲軟。我想我們已經討論過了,這確實是 GPC 歷史上第一次,我們的五個業務部門都以同樣的方式感受到了下行週期。
We're going to start the year in that position. So we have expectations that this week, environment will persist through the first half. We don't really get into giving individual sales guidance by business unit. But I will say that we're looking for the second half to be better, to improve. And we're looking for sequential improvement across the year, as I kind of outlined in my prepared remarks with the cadence of earnings.
我們將以這樣的姿態開始新的一年。因此,我們預計本週的環境將持續到上半年。我們實際上並未針對每個業務部門提供單獨的銷售指導。但我想說的是,我們希望下半場能更好、更進一步。我們期待全年業績能持續改善,正如我在準備好的發言中概述的獲利節奏一樣。
And with that backdrop, obviously, we would have the expectation that sales and comp sales would progress through the course of the year to support that improvement in earnings. So I think we'll be looking at the second half.
在這樣的背景下,我們顯然預期銷售額和可比較銷售額將在全年成長,以支持獲利的提高。因此我認為我們會專注於下半部分。
There are a lot of moving pieces out there right now and which I think the market is reacting to some pretty muted conditions, whether it's high interest rates, inflation, foreign currency, the emerging potential for tariff impacts, which we obviously did not include in our guide. There's something to be very optimistic about, but cautiously optimistic and being prudent about sequential improvement in PMI and IP, which we've seen over the last three months.
目前有很多變動的因素,我認為市場正在對一些相當溫和的條件做出反應,無論是高利率、通貨膨脹、外幣,還是新出現的關稅影響的可能性,這些顯然沒有包括在我們的指南中。有些事情值得樂觀,但對於過去三個月PMI和IP的持續改善,我們仍需保持謹慎樂觀和審慎。
So that would be a benefit for Motion. That has a lag to it, about a two- to three-month lag. And so if those things continue, then that would put us right in the middle of the year in which we might see some improvement. And that would come alongside, hopefully, some improvement in the customer [side of the house] on the automotive business. But look, there's still things to watch. We're watching that industrial business, and we're watching Europe to a certain degree as well.
這對 Motion 來說是一個好處。這有一定的滯後,大約兩到三個月的延遲。所以,如果這些情況持續下去,那麼我們在今年年中可能會看到一些改善。希望這能為汽車業務的客戶帶來一些改善。但是,還是有很多值得關注的事情。我們正在關注工業業務,並且在一定程度上也在關注歐洲。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Thanks. I guess, on the two questions, one follow-up on the weather benefit in US NAPA, were you surprised not to see any improvement there? And second, on the Motion side of the business, obviously, the elections behind us.
謝謝。我想,關於這兩個問題,一個是關於美國 NAPA 的天氣效益的後續問題,您是否對那裡沒有看到任何改善感到驚訝?其次,就議案方面而言,顯然選舉已經結束。
You saw the PMI pick up. But tariffs have gotten full front and center in the news. What are you hearing from your customers? Do you think the tariff is something that could remain an overhang until it fully goes away such that that pushes out that Motion recovery in the PMI recovery?
您看到 PMI 有所回升。但關稅已成為新聞焦點。您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼?您是否認為,在關稅完全取消之前,它會一直是懸而未決的問題,從而推遲 PMI 復甦中的動議復甦?
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Chris, I'll take the weather point and just say, look, don't forget the fourth quarter started with some pretty significant disruption from the hurricanes. So as we started October, we were still feeling the impact in both segments of the hurricane that persisted really through the month of October and perhaps, into the first week of November, where we got back on our feet.
嘿,克里斯,我來談談天氣問題,我想說,看,別忘了第四季度開始時颶風造成了相當大的破壞。因此,當我們進入十月時,我們仍然能感受到颶風兩個部分的影響,這種影響實際上持續了整個十月份,也許持續到了十一月的第一周,我們才重新站起來。
You top and tail that with some better weather in December from an automotive perspective in terms of winter weather and driving sales. And I would say that weather, which is why we really didn't call it out for the quarter, was a push when you take those two factors together. And I'll let Will give you some color on the tariff question around industrial.
從汽車產業的角度來看,12 月的冬季天氣和銷售成長情況會更好。我想說的是,天氣是推動因素,這也是我們本季沒有公佈結果的原因。我將讓威爾向您介紹一些有關工業關稅的問題。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. Look, I think it's a wait and see, Chris, honestly. I would say that the tone of the discussions are biased, more positive as we've started the year. But I think everybody is cautious and staying agile. Obviously, as we think about the implications for Motion associated with the stronger North American manufacturing base, that's a huge tailwind.
是的。瞧,說實話,克里斯,我認為這只是等待觀望而已。我想說,討論的基調是有偏見的,隨著新年的開始,討論的基調更加積極。但我認為每個人都很謹慎並且保持敏捷。顯然,當我們考慮到更強大的北美製造業基礎對 Motion 的影響時,這是一個巨大的順風。
If you think about our tariff exposure at Genuine Parts Company, I would tell you that it's definitely a fluid situation. But we've been prepared for this moment. Our merchandising teams around the world have done really good work to make sure that we've got a diversified global supply chain. And in fact, even in the course of the fourth quarter, we analyzed the country of origin across 800,000 SKUs to make sure that we were exceptionally precise about how to manage the business.
如果你考慮一下 Genuine Parts Company 的關稅風險,我會告訴你,這肯定是一個不穩定的情況。但我們已經為這一刻做好了準備。我們遍佈全球的行銷團隊做出了卓越的工作,確保我們擁有多元化的全球供應鏈。事實上,即使在第四季度,我們也分析了 80 萬個 SKU 的原產國,以確保我們對如何管理業務非常精確。
And if you look at the key takeaways from that analysis, for GPC overall as a global company, our tariff exposure as a percent of purchases is about 7% in China and less than 5% in Mexico and Canada. Motion has almost 90% to 95% of its exposure in the US. The area of the business that has exposure to China, Mexico, Canada, as a percentage of total GPC is NAPA, where roughly 20% of purchases are China, 15% are Mexico, and less than 5% in Canada.
如果你看一下該分析的關鍵要點,對於 GPC 作為一家全球性公司而言,我們的採購關稅風險佔中國採購額的百分比約為 7%,而墨西哥和加拿大的採購關稅風險佔比不到 5%。Motion 在美國的曝光率幾乎達到 90% 至 95%。該業務與中國、墨西哥、加拿大有業務往來的地區佔 GPC 總額的百分比為 NAPA,其中約 20% 的採購來自中國,15% 來自墨西哥,不到 5% 來自加拿大。
So we've got a good handle on the facts. The discussions with the vendors right now I would describe similarly to the way that I describe customers, which is, everybody is trying to make sense of which way the wind is blowing. And the good news is the team is prepared to react accordingly as we did a couple of years ago where we operate in rational markets that are structured, where we have the ability to deliver service to the customer but also pass through price.
因此,我們對於事實有了充分的了解。我現在與供應商的討論的描述方式與我描述客戶的方式類似,即每個人都在試圖弄清楚風向是什麼。好消息是,團隊已準備好做出相應的反應,就像我們幾年前所做的那樣,我們在結構化的理性市場中運營,我們有能力為客戶提供服務,同時也能轉嫁價格。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Greg Melich, Evercore ISI.
Greg Melich,Evercore ISI。
Greg Melich - Analyst
Greg Melich - Analyst
Hi, thanks. I wanted to double click on two things. One is that sales progression you talked about. Obviously, we exited last year week. It sounds like we started this year below the sales growth range that you're expecting for the year. Is that fair to say that it's below -- maybe perhaps positive but below the 2% to 4% range?
嗨,謝謝。我想雙擊兩樣東西。一是您談到的銷售進度。顯然,我們去年一周就退出了。聽起來我們今年的銷售成長幅度低於您預期的範圍。這樣說是否公平——也許為正數,但低於 2% 到 4% 的範圍?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, Greg, that's fair. I mean, we're looking at 2% to 4% for the full year with some back half weighting to that, as I described in my prepared remarks, particularly when you think about the shape of the earnings. So we would start in a little lower position and in a little higher position. And that will get you to the map of the 2% to 4%.
是的,格雷格,這很公平。我的意思是,正如我在準備好的發言中所描述的那樣,我們預計全年增長率為 2% 到 4%,後半年的權重會有所增加,特別是當你考慮盈利狀況時。因此,我們會從稍微低一點的位置和稍微高一點的位置開始。這樣你就能看到 2% 到 4% 的地圖了。
Greg Melich - Analyst
Greg Melich - Analyst
Got it. And then maybe, Will, just a double-click on tariffs. Remind us your business proposition around tariffs and if you look to protect gross margin dollars or protect gross margin rate, depending on how tariffs play out by country and product line?
知道了。然後也許,威爾,只需雙擊關稅。請提醒我們您有關關稅的商業主張,以及您是否希望保護毛利率或保護毛利率,這取決於關稅在各國和產品線上的實施?
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Greg, I would say it depends, honestly. We talk a lot about category management and managing the assortment in the category at a pretty granular level. So there might be situations where you're thinking about gross margin dollars or profit dollars.
是的,格雷格,老實說,我認為這要視情況而定。我們討論了很多有關品類管理以及如何在相當精細的層面上管理品類中的商品組合。因此,在某些情況下,您可能會考慮毛利率或利潤。
And there might be situations where you're talking gross profit rate. So it's a balancing act, obviously. Gross margin rate is important to the financial expression of our business. And so all else equal, that's something that we consider.
在某些情況下,您可能會談論毛利率。因此,這顯然是一種平衡行為。毛利率對於我們業務的財務表現很重要。在其他條件相同的情況下,這是我們會考慮的事情。
Greg Melich - Analyst
Greg Melich - Analyst
Got it. And if I could -- I just want to make sure on interest expense, a housekeeping item. It still $150 million this year. Does that include basically the lack of the pension income since that's been --?
知道了。如果可以的話——我只想確保利息支出是一項日常開支。今年仍為1.5億美元。這是否包括基本退休金收入的缺失,因為--?
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
No, Greg, not in the interest expense number we gave you. Pension income is a headwind, as I described in our prepared remarks. It's down from the year-over-year $0.28 estimated headwind for the year. But that's not a part of the interest expense, book that in the --
不,格雷格,我們給你的利息支出數字裡沒有這個數字。正如我在準備好的發言中所描述的那樣,退休金收入是一個阻力。該數字低於去年同期預計的 0.28 美元的全年逆風值。但這不是利息費用的一部分,記入--
Greg Melich - Analyst
Greg Melich - Analyst
That's totally separate from that. And that will show up as soon as it's actually divested or before that?
這與那完全不同。而且這會在實際剝離後立即顯現出來,還是在那之前?
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, it's actually before that. We had to reallocate and rebalance the portfolio of assets in connection with the transfer, which is why we have the headwind. The actual settlement is subject to numerous regulatory and approval steps, which is why the timing we expect to be in the fourth quarter could slip into the first quarter of next year.
是的,實際上是在那之前。我們必須在轉移過程中重新分配和重新平衡資產組合,這就是我們面臨阻力的原因。實際的解決方案需要經過許多監管和批准步驟,因此我們預計的第四季度解決時間可能會推遲到明年第一季。
We wanted to be clear about when that timing might occur because we go through that regulatory process. But to prepare the planned assets for the transition, we rebalanced the portfolio, much less equity weighted. And so in that respect, the income will be down significantly year over year. And you can think about that $0.20 -- $0.28, sorry, pretty ratably across the year.
我們希望明確這個時間何時會發生,因為我們要經歷監管過程。但為了做好過渡所需的計畫資產準備,我們重新平衡了投資組合,減少了股票加權。從這個方面來看,收入將比去年同期大幅下降。你可以想想,這 0.20 美元到 0.28 美元,對不起,全年的比例相當大。
Greg Melich - Analyst
Greg Melich - Analyst
Perfect. Thank you, and good luck.
完美的。謝謝你,祝你好運。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yup. Thanks, Greg.
是的。謝謝,格雷格。
Operator
Operator
Michael Lasser, UBS.
瑞銀的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. One of the key debates on the Genuine Parts investment case is this idea of market share and why has the company's North American business, not only in the automotive business, but also seeing on the industrial side, been losing market share.
早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。關於原廠配件投資案例的關鍵爭論之一是市場份額的概念,以及為什麼該公司的北美業務(不僅在汽車業務,而且在工業方面)一直在失去市場份額。
Is it service? Is it availability or some other factors? So, A, could you give us some more detail on how the investments are going to close some of these factors that may be driving underperformance? And, B, is the expectation that you will see a progression over the course of the year predicated on an acceleration in market share or the industry accelerating? Thank you very much, and I will follow up.
是服務嗎?是可用性還是其他因素?那麼,A,您能否向我們詳細介紹一下投資將如何消除導致績效不佳的一些因素?並且,B,您是否預期今年的進展將基於市場份額的加速成長或產業加速成長?非常感謝,我會跟進。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Michael, let me take that one and make a few points. First of all, you referenced North America automotive. And for us, our Canadian operations continue to perform very well and in line with the market. So that's a great business up there. It's got a leadership position and continues to extend its lead.
邁克爾,讓我就此問題談幾點。首先,您提到了北美汽車。對於我們來說,我們的加拿大業務繼續表現良好並與市場保持一致。所以這是一筆很棒的生意。它已佔據領導地位並繼續擴大領先地位。
I would respectfully disagree with your observation about Motion North America not competing effectively or losing market share. Our closest competitor has a slightly different mix of business. Regardless of that, I think if you look at our performance relative to anybody in the market is as good or better. And we're excited to continue to prove that quarter after quarter throughout '25 and well beyond.
我不敢苟同您關於 Motion North America 無法有效競爭或失去市場份額的看法。我們最接近的競爭對手的業務組合略有不同。不管怎樣,我認為如果你看看我們的表現,相對於市場上任何一家公司來說,我們的表現都一樣好,甚至更好。我們很高興能夠在整個25年以及更長遠的未來繼續證明這一點。
On the US automotive side of our business, I think we've been pretty clear about the areas where we're investing to take care of our customers and win market share. It starts with inventory. It starts with supply chain. It starts with talent. It starts with sales intensity running great stores.
就我們業務的美國汽車方面而言,我認為我們已經非常清楚我們投資的領域,以照顧我們的客戶並贏得市場份額。首先從庫存開始。一切從供應鏈開始。一切都從天賦開始。首先要從銷售強度開始,經營優秀的商店。
As you know, we have a different operating model. So 35% of our stores are company owned, which is up 10 percentage points versus not that long ago. So we're evolving our mix. We can control those operations and compete effectively in the market. We partner on the balance of our stores with our independent owners.
如您所知,我們有不同的營運模式。因此,我們的 35% 的商店都是公司自營的,與不久前相比上升了 10 個百分點。因此我們正在改進我們的組合。我們可以控制這些操作並在市場上有效競爭。我們與獨立店主就商店的平衡展開合作。
And as everybody knows, it's been a challenging couple of years in a higher interest rate environment. And we partner with those independent owners as small businesses to make sure they've got the right inventory, make sure they have the right resources, and make sure that they're attacking the market effectively.
眾所周知,在高利率環境下過去的幾年是充滿挑戰的幾年。我們與這些獨立小企業主合作,確保他們擁有合適的庫存,確保他們擁有合適的資源,確保他們能夠有效地進入市場。
And so whether you look at our MPEC and Walker acquisition to change the mix, whether you look at some of the investments we're putting in supply chain technology, we're doing all the right work. And there's no team more motivated than our NAPA US team to compete effectively and win market share.
因此,無論您看我們透過收購 MPEC 和 Walker 來改變產品組合,還是看我們在供應鏈技術方面進行的一些投資,我們都在做正確的工作。沒有哪個團隊比我們的 NAPA 美國團隊更有動力有效競爭並贏得市場份額。
Overlay with what we hope will be an improving fundamental market backdrop as we move through 2025. So to answer the last part of your question, it's both earning our fair share by taking care of our customers and then enjoying the fundamentals that we hope improve as we move forward through 2025.
我們希望,隨著 2025 年的到來,基本市場背景將會持續改善。所以,要回答你問題的最後一部分,我們既要透過照顧我們的客戶來獲得應有的份額,又要享受我們希望在 2025 年前進時得到改善的基本面。
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Thank you very much for that. My follow-up question is if the industry doesn't accelerate to the degree that you're expecting or some of the market share trends become more challenging, how should we model or think about the sensitivity of the earnings for GPC to the top line? Are there other elements of the P&L that you could manage in the event that sales falls short through the course of the year? Thank you.
非常感謝。我的後續問題是,如果產業發展的步伐沒有達到您預期的程度,或者某些市場份額趨勢變得更具挑戰性,我們應該如何建模或考慮 GPC 收益對營業收入的敏感度?如果全年銷售額下降,您是否可以管理損益表的其他要素?謝謝。
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Michael. Look, I mean, I think one of the things that we've been very thoughtful about is the expansion of our cost actions and restructuring in light of what we see as soft conditions starting the year. We've given a good estimate of what we think we'll do this year on the expansion of restructuring and additional cost actions.
謝謝,麥可。我的意思是,我認為我們經過深思熟慮的事情之一是,根據我們看到的今年年初的疲軟條件,擴大我們的成本行動和重組。我們對今年在擴大重組和額外成本行動方面將採取的措施給出了很好的估計。
And we're doing that because we believe it's prudent to balance the long term and the short term right now. We do have an ability to lean further into those should we need to. Some of the things we're being very mindful of right now as we think about restructuring and cost actions is continuing to protect customer-facing roles, protect customer service, and protect the customer experience.
我們這樣做是因為我們認為現在平衡長期和短期利益是明智之舉。如果需要的話,我們確實有能力進一步依賴這些。當我們考慮重組和成本行動時,我們現在非常注意的一些事情是繼續保護面向客戶的角色、保護客戶服務和保護客戶體驗。
And so we've got an ability to lean in a little bit further if we want, particularly if we see things not changing. One of our key learnings from 2024 has been around this sense of urgency and moving faster. And so we're going to be much tighter on watching how things develop, being transparent with all of you on how we see things developing. And if we need to accelerate more restructuring, we will.
因此,如果我們願意的話,我們有能力進一步傾斜,特別是當我們看到事情沒有改變的時候。我們從 2024 年學到的一個重要經驗就是這種緊迫感和更快的行動力。因此,我們將更密切地關注事態的發展,並向大家透明地公開我們對事態發展的看法。如果我們需要加快進一步重組,我們就會這麼做。
We do feel like we've found a sweet spot for 2025 as we bring in the rollover of 2024 actions, which give us a little bit more incremental benefit in '25. And then the new actions really spilt between things you would expect us to do on restructuring, a little heavier lift now, though, some more facility actions and leaning into streamlining our back office.
我們確實覺得我們已經找到了 2025 年的最佳點,因為我們引入了 2024 年行動的延續,這將為我們在 25 年帶來更多的增量收益。然後,新的行動實際上分為您期望我們在重組方面做的事情,現在壓力稍微大一些,更多的是設施行動,並傾向於精簡我們的後台辦公室。
We're also doing that with some cost actions where we're simplifying our operations and giving us the ability to be a little bit more nimble. So it's all about smarter, better, faster. And to the extent we need to, we can expand those activities and react to the market accordingly.
我們也採取了一些成本措施,簡化了我們的營運並使我們的能力更加靈活。所以一切都是為了更聰明、更好、更快。在所需的範圍內,我們可以擴大這些活動並對市場做出相應的反應。
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Thank you very much, and good luck.
非常感謝,祝你好運。
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Michael.
謝謝,麥可。
Operator
Operator
Kate McShane, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的凱特‧麥克沙恩 (Kate McShane)。
Kate McShane - Analyst
Kate McShane - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Just with regards to the automotive comments about same-store sales, what is driving EBITDA margins flat to up? Is it the cost savings?
嗨,早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。僅就同店銷售額的汽車評論而言,是什麼推動 EBITDA 利潤率從持平到上升?是為了節省成本嗎?
And our second question is, is there a target in cadence of buying back independents in 2025? And what kind of lift have you seen in same-store sales comp as you've taken those businesses over?
我們的第二個問題是,是否有 2025 年回購獨立汽車的節奏目標?當您接手這些業務後,同店銷售額有何提升?
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Herbert Nappier - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Kate, I'll take the margin question, and then I'll let Will give you some color on the independent owners. But when we think about flat to up 10 bps on automotive for the guide for the year, we kind of think about that through the prism of several things.
嘿,凱特,我來回答利潤率的問題,然後我會讓威爾給你介紹獨立業主的情況。但是,當我們考慮將汽車行業的年度指導價格維持在平穩或上漲 10 個基點時,我們會從幾個方面來考慮這個問題。
One, we are going to see continued expansion in gross margin. So that will be a lift, for sure. I think it sales backdrop will be a bit better, giving us a little bit better ability to navigate the entirety of the P&L and make some better choices with that respect.
一是我們將看到毛利率持續擴大。所以這肯定會是一個提升。我認為銷售背景會更好一些,讓我們能夠更好地駕馭整個損益表,並在這方面做出更好的選擇。
And then also these cost actions and restructuring, we'll see those benefit both segments. So it's not just unique to automotive. Both sides of the house are being disciplined and tightening the belt. And so when we take all that collectively, a better sales environment, gross margin expansion, a normalized level of inflation in SG&A, we think we're returning to in 2025 and the cost actions.
此外,我們也將看到這些成本行動和重組對兩個部門都有好處。所以它不僅僅是汽車獨有的。眾議院兩黨都在嚴明紀律,勒緊褲帶。因此,當我們將所有這些因素綜合起來考慮時,包括更好的銷售環境、毛利率擴大、銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 通膨水準正常化,我們認為我們將在 2025 年恢復成本行動。
We believe that's the right backdrop to expand margin on the automotive side. And I'll let Will give you a little bit of color on the independent owner and cadence there.
我們相信這是擴大汽車利潤的正確背景。我會讓威爾向您介紹那裡的獨立所有者和節奏。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, Kate, it's a good question. So just as a reminder, the MTEC and Walker, those two transactions in 2024 were, at the time, our largest two independent owner groups. If you look at the Pareto of our independent owners at this moment in time, of which there's roughly 2,000, our largest owner is somewhere in the 50- to 60-store range. We have a handful of folks in the 30 to 40 range. And then the vast majority of our owners operate five or fewer stores.
是的,凱特,這是個好問題。因此,需要提醒的是,MTEC 和 Walker 於 2024 年進行的兩筆交易當時是我們最大的兩個獨立所有者集團。如果你看我們目前獨立業主的帕累托圖,其中大約有 2,000 個,我們最大的業主擁有 50 到 60 家商店。我們有一些年齡在 30 到 40 歲之間的人。我們絕大多數的業主經營的商店都不超過五家。
And so as we look forward from an M&A standpoint in US automotive, there will be less of a material impact to our financial statements associated with that activity. What we've seen in the performance post close is what we would have expected to see, which is it gives us an opportunity to influence sales in the local market.
因此,從美國汽車業的併購角度來看,該活動對我們的財務報表產生的重大影響將較小。我們在交易結束後看到的表現正是我們預期看到的,這為我們提供了影響當地市場銷售的機會。
It gives us the opportunity to harmonize and optimize cost and everything in between. So it's the right operational strategy. It's the right financial strategy. It's hard work. It takes time. You noticed in my comments, where 55% of stores are integrated. You have to put the systems into the independent owner stores so that we can operate them effectively. And those activities are not technically in our comp sales growth yet given the recent nature of the acquisitions.
它使我們有機會協調和優化成本以及介於兩者之間的一切。所以這是正確的營運策略。這是正確的財務策略。這是艱苦的工作。這需要時間。您在我的評論中註意到,55% 的商店是整合的。您必須將系統放入獨立業主商店,以便我們能夠有效地運作它們。鑑於近期收購的性質,從技術上講,這些活動尚未計入我們的同店銷售額成長。
Kate McShane - Analyst
Kate McShane - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Seth Basham, Wedbush Securities.
韋德布希證券公司的塞思·巴沙姆(Seth Basham)。
Seth Basham - Analyst
Seth Basham - Analyst
Thanks a lot, and good morning. Will, in response to Michael Lasser's question, you noted the challenges for independent NAPA customers. But in your prepared remarks, you noted that the company-owned stores and independent stores aren't relatively in line.
非常感謝,早安。威爾,在回答邁克爾拉瑟的問題時,您提到了獨立 NAPA 客戶面臨的挑戰。但在您準備好的發言中,您指出公司自營商店和獨立商店並相對不一致。
Can you just give us a little bit more color on whether or not you think that the company-owned stores are facing any additional challenges that might be leading to less strong performance than peers?
您能否向我們稍微說明一下,您是否認為公司自營商店面臨著任何額外的挑戰,從而導致其業績不及同行?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
No, Seth, I don't think there's anything uniquely different about our company-owned stores that disadvantage us relative the market. Again, as I said, we've been very focused on executing the basics and working with our independent owners to that regard, meaning having the right inventory, having the right talent in the stores, having the right operational processes.
不,塞斯,我不認為我們的公司自營商店有什麼特別之處,導致我們相對於市場處於劣勢。再次,正如我所說,我們一直非常注重執行基本任務,並在這方面與我們的獨立所有者進行合作,這意味著擁有合適的庫存、在商店中擁有合適的人才、擁有正確的營運流程。
And if you look at our company-owned stores, we're highly energized because we've got a great number of stores that operate very effectively. And the opportunity set available to us is to quartile up the performance of the bottom quartile of our stores. So it's a very tangible body of work. There's nothing wrong with our company-owned stores.
如果你看看我們公司自營的商店,你會發現我們精力充沛,因為我們擁有大量經營高效的商店。我們可以利用的機會是將我們商店底部四分位數的業績提高四分位數。所以這是一項非常切實的工作。我們公司自營的商店沒有任何問題。
We've got some independent owners that have excellent stores, in many instances, better stores than us. And so we're constantly learning from each other, and we can see the opportunities in front of us. And each and every day, we've got to go to work and make sure that we're running great field operations and taking care of our customers. And that's what we're focused on.
我們有一些獨立業主,他們擁有優秀的商店,在許多情況下,甚至比我們的商店更好。因此,我們不斷地相互學習,並且我們能夠看到擺在我們面前的機會。每天,我們都必須上班,確保我們能夠順利完成現場作業並照顧好我們的客戶。這正是我們關注的重點。
Seth Basham - Analyst
Seth Basham - Analyst
Got it. And then my follow-up question is, with one large competitor exiting the West Coast, do you see any opportunity to gain market share out there?
知道了。然後我的後續問題是,隨著一個大型競爭對手退出西海岸,您是否看到在那裡獲得市場份額的機會?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
We do, Seth. Anytime I think you have changes in the competitive landscape, it presents opportunities. The thing that we can focus on, as I've said a few times today, is making sure that we're running a good business to capture those opportunities. So the fundamental execution is really important to seize the moments.
是的,塞斯。我認為,每當競爭格局改變時,就意味著機會。正如我今天多次說過的,我們可以關注的事情是確保我們經營良好的業務以抓住這些機會。所以,抓住時機,根本的執行確實非常重要。
We do have a big national account business. We are a national scaled partner. And so that presents opportunities to us. We obviously have a dedicated network of auto care facilities and repair shops, which creates opportunities for us.
我們確實擁有龐大的全國帳戶業務。我們是一家全國性規模的合作夥伴。這對我們來說是機會。我們顯然擁有專門的汽車保養設施和維修店網絡,這為我們創造了機會。
And we also have independent owners. And so if you look at all the opportunities that are available when we execute well locally in the markets, we're excited about what it could be.
我們也有獨立業主。因此,如果您看一下我們在本地市場表現良好時可以獲得的所有機會,我們對它可能發生的事情感到非常興奮。
Seth Basham - Analyst
Seth Basham - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Bret Jordan, Jefferies.
布雷特·喬丹,傑富瑞。
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Hi, good morning, guys. In the prepared remarks, you talked about internal metrics that you were working on the DCs, that had picked up 800 basis points. Could you talk about what were those and on what basis were you having fill rate issues that you were dealing with? Or I guess, sort of what's happening at the DC level?
大家早安。在準備好的發言中,您談到了您正在研究的 DC 的內部指標,該指標已經上升了 800 個基點。您能談談這些是什麼嗎?以及您在處理填充率問題時遇到的根本原因是什麼?或者我猜,在 DC 層面發生了什麼事情?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, the DCs are performing as well as they ever have been. As we've talked about over the last couple of years, we've made changes to the way in which we've organized our operations teams and made it more of a centralized function that's enabled us to put more consistent processes into the network.
是的,DC 的表現一如既往地出色。正如我們在過去幾年中所討論的那樣,我們改變了組織營運團隊的方式,使其更加集中化,使我們能夠在網路中加入更一致的流程。
And I think what you're seeing in the recent quarters is the result of basically really, really good, disciplined hard work from our supply chain and operations teams around the country. We've got a great leader in that part of our business, and we have opportunities to continue to get better. So we're excited.
我認為您在最近幾季所看到的結果基本上是我們遍布全國的供應鏈和營運團隊的非常非常好的、有紀律的努力的結果。我們的業務領域有一位出色的領導者,我們有機會繼續變得進步。所以我們很興奮。
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Bret Jordan - Analyst
That 800-basis-point increase is not off of a low base. It sort of seems like a dramatic step-up, and it was in the prepared remarks. So I was wondering if there was something that needed fixing?
800 個基點的增幅並非源自於低基數。這看起來就像是一種戲劇性的進步,而且這是在準備好的演講中提到的。所以我想知道是否有什麼東西需要修復?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
There really wasn't, Bret. I think, quite frankly, some of these metrics that we put into in a more standardized way are new to the buildings. Not every building was using the same metrics. And so one of the nice things about having consistent processes is you can level up everybody across the network. So nothing really to read into the improvement.
確實沒有,布雷特。我認為,坦白說,我們以更標準化的方式納入的一些指標對於建築物來說是新的。並非每棟建築都使用相同的指標。因此,擁有一致流程的好處之一就是你可以提升整個網路中每個人的水平。因此,沒有什麼可以真正理解改進之處。
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then I think also in the prepared remarks, you talked about a tool offering. Is there any more color we could get on that? Is that a new category for '25?
好的。偉大的。然後我認為,在準備好的發言中,您也談到了工具的提供。我們還能對此獲得更多詳細資訊嗎?這是 '25 的新類別嗎?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
It's not a new category. It's a super important category. So if you look at the tools and equipment industry, we estimate it to be $10 billion-plus market opportunity. We played in that market space forever. And as we looked at and listen to the feedback from our customers, we took that input to reimagine a more effective assortment strategy.
這不是一個新類別。這是一個非常重要的類別。所以如果你看看工具和設備產業,我們估計這個市場機會超過 100 億美元。我們一直在那個市場空間裡活動。當我們觀察並聽取客戶的回饋時,我們採納了這些意見,重新構想了更有效的分類策略。
And so we've got a brand today. We're making it better. It's targeting particularly the professional repair shop. So as the commercial leader, it's important to have this offering. It's about 8% category T&E for us as part of our NAPA business. And this specific offering is a much smaller portion of that. But we think it's critically important to take care of that professional repair technician.
所以今天我們就有了一個品牌。我們正在讓它變得更好。它尤其針對專業修理店。因此,作為商業領袖,提供這樣的服務非常重要。作為我們 NAPA 業務的一部分,這約占我們 8% 的差旅與費用 (T&E) 類別。而這項特定服務僅佔其中很小的一部分。但我們認為照顧專業維修技術人員至關重要。
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Bret Jordan - Analyst
You're not adding SKUs. You're just emphasizing more of what you already have?
您沒有新增 SKU。你只是在強調你已經擁有的東西嗎?
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
We're simplifying and streamlining the assortment from, think of it, as a good, better, best to a more focused two-tier brand strategy.
我們正在簡化和精簡產品分類,從好的、更好的、最好的,到更有針對性的兩級品牌策略。
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Bret Jordan - Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
William Stengel - President, Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Bret.
謝謝,布雷特。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。