Golden Ocean Group Ltd (GOGL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to this conference call, where we'll be presenting Golden Ocean's Q4 results. Thank you very much for listening in.

女士們先生們，下午好，歡迎參加本次電話會議，我們將在會上介紹 Golden Ocean 的第四季度業績。非常感謝您收聽。

In today's call, we follow our usual procedure. Peder Simonsen, Golden Ocean's CFO, will talk us through the financial highlights. And hereafter, I will be discussing the market and the outlook for the company. At the end of the presentation, I will provide more details on our recent acquisition of 6 modern Newcastlemaxes.

在今天的電話會議中，我們遵循我們通常的程序。 Golden Ocean 的首席財務官 Peder Simonsen 將向我們介紹財務亮點。此後，我將討論公司的市場和前景。在演示結束時，我將提供有關我們最近收購 6 艘現代 Newcastlemax 的更多詳細信息。

So in the next 20 minutes, we will show you that despite macroeconomic factors presenting a challenging backdrop, Golden Ocean generated solid results in the fourth quarter; that we continue divesting older tonnage and recycle the proceeds into equity for modern tonnage; and that despite an expected slow first half of the year, the long-term drive bulk fundamentals remain strong. With that, let's take a look at the main highlights for the quarter.

那麼在接下來的20分鐘裡，我們將向大家展示，儘管宏觀經濟因素呈現出充滿挑戰的背景，但Golden Ocean在第四季度取得了可觀的業績；我們繼續剝離舊噸位，並將收益回收到現代噸位的股權中；並且儘管預計上半年會放緩，但長期驅動大宗商品的基本面依然強勁。有了這個，讓我們來看看本季度的主要亮點。

In Q4, we recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $112 million, which resulted in net income of $68 million or $0.34 per share. We achieved average time charter equivalent rates of $21,000 per day for our Capesizes and $19,000 per day for the Panamaxes. Like the other 3 quarters in 2022, these earnings are well above the benchmark indices. For the Capes, it is $7,000 per day per vessel; and for the Panamaxes, $5,000 per day per vessel. The premiums are driven by our modern fuel-efficient fleet, fixed paying contracts and scrubber premiums.

在第四季度，我們錄得調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.12 億美元，淨收入為 6800 萬美元或每股 0.34 美元。我們的好望角型船的平均定期租船費率達到每天 21,000 美元，巴拿馬型船的平均定期租船費率達到每天 19,000 美元。與 2022 年的其他 3 個季度一樣，這些收益遠高於基準指數。對於好望角，每艘船每天 7,000 美元；對於巴拿馬型，每艘船每天 5,000 美元。保費由我們現代化的節能車隊、固定支付合同和洗滌器保費驅動。

Rate guidance, and looking at this quarter, Q1, we have so far secured $13,000 per day for 63% of our Cape days and $15,000 per day for 73% of our Panamax days. Looking ahead into Q2, we have secured $21,000 per day for 19% of our Cape days and $18,000 per day for 14% of our Panamax days.

費率指導，看看本季度第一季度，到目前為止，我們已經為 63% 的開普敦天數確保了每天 13,000 美元，為 73% 的巴拿馬型船天數確保了每天 15,000 美元。展望第二季度，我們為 19% 的好望角天數確保了每天 21,000 美元，為 14% 的巴拿馬型船天數確保了每天 18,000 美元。

During the quarter, we entered into a $250 million facility, refinancing 20 vessels. We also completed the sale of 2 older Panamax vessels, while entering into an agreement to acquire 6 modern Newcastlemax vessels for a total price of $291 million. I will discuss this transaction later in the presentation.

本季度，我們簽訂了一項價值 2.5 億美元的融資協議，為 20 艘船舶再融資。我們還完成了 2 艘舊巴拿馬型船舶的出售，同時簽訂了一項協議，以 2.91 億美元的總價收購 6 艘現代化的 Newcastlemax 型船舶。我將在演示文稿的稍後部分討論此交易。

Finally, we repurchased 460,000 shares and announced our eighth consecutive quarterly dividend. We would pay out $0.20 per share for Q4. Dividends remain a central element of our capital allocation and we are pleased to be able to expand the fleet while delivering on our commitment to return cash to our shareholders.

最後，我們回購了 460,000 股股票，並宣布了連續第八個季度的股息。我們將為第四季度支付每股 0.20 美元。股息仍然是我們資本配置的核心要素，我們很高興能夠擴大機隊，同時履行我們向股東返還現金的承諾。

Now I pass the word to Peder, who will dive into some of the numbers and financial details of the quarter.

現在我將消息轉告 Peder，他將深入研究本季度的一些數字和財務細節。

Thank you, Ulrik. If we move to our profit and loss, we, as Ulrik mentioned, achieved a Cape rates of $21,400 for the quarter, which compares to $22,700 in Q3. Our Panamax and Ultramax combined achieved $19,000 for the quarter. Our total fleet-wide TCE rate was $20,400, which was down from $23,000 in Q3, and our full year TCE was $24,300.

謝謝你，烏爾里克。如果我們轉向損益，正如 Ulrik 提到的那樣，我們本季度的好望角利率為 21,400 美元，而第三季度為 22,700 美元。本季度，我們的巴拿馬型和超靈便型船舶總計達到 19,000 美元。我們整個車隊的總 TCE 費率為 20,400 美元，低於第三季度的 23,000 美元，全年 TCE 為 24,300 美元。

We had 2 ships dry-docked in Q4 versus 6 ships dry-docked in Q3, which resulted in off-hire days of approximately 120 days in Q4 versus 272 days in the previous quarter. We have 5 ships expected to dry dock during Q1 2023. This resulted in TCE revenues of $180.2 million, which compares to $195 million in Q3.

我們在第四季度有 2 艘船停靠在幹塢，而在第三季度有 6 艘船停靠在幹塢，這導致第四季度的停租天數約為 120 天，而上一季度為 272 天。我們有 5 艘船預計在 2023 年第一季度停靠碼頭。這導致 TCE 收入為 1.802 億美元，而第三季度為 1.95 億美元。

Looking at our operating expenses, we recorded $58.1 million in operating expenses versus $59.3 million in Q3. As mentioned, we had fewer dry-dockings this quarter, which we expensed, but we had higher expense investments in energy saving advices -- devices and sensors, which totaled $2.8 million in Q4, which is $2 million in Q3.

從我們的運營費用來看，我們的運營費用為 5810 萬美元，而第三季度為 5930 萬美元。如前所述，本季度我們的干船塢數量較少，我們將其計入費用，但我們在節能建議——設備和傳感器方面的費用投資更高，第四季度總計 280 萬美元，第三季度為 200 萬美元。

On the running expenses, we see that although the COVID-19-related costs have disappeared, we are starting to see higher inflation effects in our OpEx figures. Our OpEx, ex dry dock, was $6,300 per day, $100 per day above the previous quarter, and dry dock constituted $440 per day versus $790 per day in Q3. On our general and administrative expenses, they ended up at $5 million, up from $4.8 million in Q3. And the daily G&A came in at $537 per day, net of recharge of costs to affiliated companies.

在運營費用方面，我們看到儘管與 COVID-19 相關的成本已經消失，但我們開始在運營支出數據中看到更高的通貨膨脹效應。我們的運營支出（不包括幹船塢）為每天 6,300 美元，比上一季度每天高出 100 美元，幹船塢為每天 440 美元，而第三季度為每天 790 美元。我們的一般和行政費用最終為 500 萬美元，高於第三季度的 480 萬美元。每日 G&A 的收入為每天 537 美元，扣除關聯公司的再收費費用。

Our charter hire expenses came down from $19.2 million, which was mainly due to a decrease in chartered-in rates, while we have an increase in chartered-in ships for the quarter. This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA of $112.4 million versus $118.2 million in Q3. On our net financial expenses, we recorded $17.6 million, which was up from $14.4 million in Q3, which is attributable to higher LIBOR and SOFR reference rates on our floating rate loans.

我們的包租費用從 1920 萬美元下降，這主要是由於包租費率下降，而本季度包租船舶數量增加。這導致調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.124 億美元，而第三季度為 1.182 億美元。在我們的淨財務費用中，我們記錄了 1760 萬美元，高於第三季度的 1440 萬美元，這歸因於我們浮動利率貸款的 LIBOR 和 SOFR 參考利率較高。

On our derivatives and other financial income, we recorded a gain of $11 million, which compared to a gain of $17.3 million in Q3. Most notable was a derivative gain of $2.7 million, which relates mainly to interest rate swaps, which was down from $11.4 million in Q3. On the results from investments in associates, we recorded a gain of $7.4 million, which was up from $5.9 million in Q3, and this relates to investments in SwissMarine, TFG and UFC.

在我們的衍生品和其他金融收入方面，我們錄得 1100 萬美元的收益，而第三季度為 1730 萬美元。最值得注意的是 270 萬美元的衍生收益，主要與利率掉期有關，低於第三季度的 1140 萬美元。根據對聯營公司的投資結果，我們錄得 740 萬美元的收益，高於第三季度的 590 萬美元，這與對 SwissMarine、TFG 和 UFC 的投資有關。

Our net profit came in at $68.2 million or $0.34 per share. And as Ulrik mentioned, a dividend was declared of $0.20 per share. For 2022, we recorded a full year net profit of $462 million or $2.30 per share, and dividends relating to 2022 of $1.65 per share.

我們的淨利潤為 6820 萬美元或每股 0.34 美元。正如 Ulrik 提到的那樣，宣布的股息為每股 0.20 美元。 2022 年全年淨利潤為 4.62 億美元或每股 2.30 美元，與 2022 年相關的股息為每股 1.65 美元。

Moving to our cash flow. We saw a net increase in cash of $5.8 million. We saw strong cash flow from operations of $125.6 million, which compares to the $98.7 million in Q3. We saw that falling inventories with falling bunker prices had a positive effect of $28 million on working capital versus a negative $26 million in the third quarter. We also saw cash flow from operations include dividends from associated companies of $2.2 million.

轉向我們的現金流。我們看到現金淨增加 580 萬美元。我們看到來自運營的強勁現金流為 1.256 億美元，而第三季度為 9870 萬美元。我們看到，隨著燃油價格的下降，庫存下降對營運資金產生了 2800 萬美元的積極影響，而第三季度為負的 2600 萬美元。我們還看到來自運營的現金流包括來自聯營公司的 220 萬美元股息。

On our cash flow used in financing, this netted at $114.3 million. This was the result of the dividend payment recorded relating to Q3 of $70.3 million; debt and lease repayments of 14 -- $40.7 million, including $11.4 million in debt repayments relating to the sale of Golden Ice and Golden Strength. Cash flow used in investments came in at $5.5 million, mainly relating to the sales proceeds of Golden Ice and -- recorded in the quarter and payment of newbuilding installments of $16.8 million.

根據我們用於融資的現金流，淨額為 1.143 億美元。這是與第三季度相關的 7030 萬美元股息支付的結果； 14 - 4070 萬美元的債務和租賃償還，包括與出售 Golden Ice 和 Golden Strength 相關的 1140 萬美元債務償還。用於投資的現金流量為 550 萬美元，主要與 Golden Ice 的銷售收益有關，並且——記錄在本季度和支付新造船分期付款 1680 萬美元。

Moving to the balance sheet. We recorded a cash of $138.1 million, which includes $3.3 million of restricted cash. In addition, we had the $100 million of undrawn available credit facilities at quarter end. Debt and finance lease liabilities totaled $1.2 billion at the end of Q4, and the average fleet-wide loan-to-value under its debt facilities came in at 44.5%, following an average valuation drop on our fleet of around 9% quarter-on-quarter. Our book equity was recorded at $1.9 billion, and a ratio of equity to total assets of approximately 59%.

轉到資產負債表。我們記錄了 1.381 億美元的現金，其中包括 330 萬美元的受限現金。此外，我們在季度末還有 1 億美元的未提取可用信貸額度。截至第四季度末，債務和融資租賃負債總計 12 億美元，其債務融資下的平均貸款價值比為 44.5%，此前我們的機隊平均估值環比下降了約 9% -四分之一。我們的賬面資產為 19 億美元，資產佔總資產的比例約為 59%。

Having a look at our cash breakeven and the new financings announced this quarter, we -- in addition to the Newcastlemax transaction and associated financings, we have put in place a new $250 million credit facility, which is secured by 20 Panamax and Capesize ships with a group of top-tier shipping banks. The facility has a 5-year tenure, a 20-year repayment profile and a credit margin of 185 basis points above the SOFR rate, which constitutes a 50 basis points reduction of the 3 facilities that we are refinancing.

看看我們的現金收支平衡和本季度宣布的新融資，我們 - 除了 Newcastlemax 交易和相關融資外，我們還提供了一項新的 2.5 億美元信貸額度，由 20 艘巴拿馬型和好望角型船舶提供擔保一批頂級航運銀行。該貸款的期限為 5 年，還款期為 20 年，信貸利潤率比 SOFR 利率高 185 個基點，這比我們正在再融資的 3 個貸款減少了 50 個基點。

This contributes positively to our cash breakeven reduction. We are obviously exposed to floating interest rates and inflation on our OpEx and G&A, but we are continuously trying to push down costs where we can. And on our credit margins, we are successfully doing so.

這對我們的現金盈虧平衡減少有積極貢獻。我們的 OpEx 和 G&A 顯然面臨浮動利率和通貨膨脹的影響，但我們一直在努力盡可能地降低成本。在我們的信貸保證金方面，我們正在成功地做到這一點。

If you look at our cash breakeven for the coming year, we estimate the cash breakeven on our Capesize and Newcastlemax fleet of $14,300, and $10,500 for our Kamsarmax and Panamax fleets. We do see that the increase in SOFR and LIBOR rates have started to come off. And if you look at the forward curves, we do expect those to start to come down again if the forward rates are a proxy for where the market is moving.

如果您查看我們來年的現金收支平衡，我們估計好望角型和紐卡斯爾型船隊的現金收支平衡為 14,300 美元，我們的 Kamsarmax 和巴拿馬型船隊的現金收支平衡為 10,500 美元。我們確實看到 SOFR 和 LIBOR 利率的增長已經開始下降。如果你看一下遠期曲線，如果遠期利率代表市場走勢，我們確實預計這些曲線將再次開始下降。

We are also, as mentioned, seeing some impact of inflation on our OpEx and G&A. But we do expect that the refinancings going forward will mitigate the majority of these increases from where we stand today. And we do also see the effect of a short-term increase in cash breakeven due to the new customer acquisitions financing, which will come down once we refinance the ships.

如前所述，我們還看到通貨膨脹對我們的運營支出和一般與行政費用產生了一些影響。但我們確實預計，未來的再融資將減輕我們今天所處位置的大部分增長。我們也確實看到了由於新客戶收購融資而導致現金收支平衡的短期增加的影響，一旦我們為船舶再融資，現金收支平衡將會下降。

Regardless of that, we maintained the absolute best-in-class cash breakeven levels in the industry. And as you can see, together with the superior fuel economics of our fleet, puts us in an optimal position for the expected market recovery.

無論如何，我們保持了業內絕對一流的現金收支平衡水平。正如您所看到的，加上我們機隊卓越的燃油經濟性，使我們處於預期市場復甦的最佳位置。

And with that, I'll give the word back to Ulrik.

有了這個，我會把話還給烏爾里克。

Thank you, Peder. We'll start with a quick review of the market developments in Q4 last year.

謝謝你，佩德。我們將從快速回顧去年第四季度的市場發展開始。

The Cape market followed an unusual pattern last year, it was stronger in the first half than in the second, something we rarely see. The economic slowdown in the global economy was one factor weighing on demand, but also, and perhaps more crucial, lower Chinese steel demand and the unwinding of congestion impeded the Cape rates from rising. Demand from bauxite and coal was strong, but not enough to make up for the lost iron ore tonne mile.

去年開普敦市場呈現出一種不同尋常的模式，上半年比下半年表現強勁，這是我們很少見到的情況。全球經濟放緩是影響需求的一個因素，但也許更重要的是，中國鋼鐵需求下降和擁堵緩解阻礙了好望角利率的上漲。鋁土礦和煤炭的需求強勁，但不足以彌補鐵礦石噸英里損失。

The Cape market averaged $15,000 per day during the quarter. The Panamax market saw better fortunes, but without excelling. U.S. Gulf logistical issues and general muted grain exports put a damper on the market. On a positive note, the inefficiencies in mineral flows created by Russia's war in Ukraine did subside, while coal continued to be in demand. The Panamax market averaged $16,000 per day during the quarter.

本季度開普敦市場平均每天 15,000 美元。巴拿馬型市場的運勢較好，但並不出色。美國海灣地區的物流問題和普遍低迷的穀物出口抑制了市場。從積極的方面來看，俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭造成的礦產流動效率低下確實有所消退，而煤炭的需求仍然存在。本季度巴拿馬型市場平均每天 16,000 美元。

The soft start to 2023 should come as no surprise to those following the dry bulk market. Q1 typically brings seasonal headwinds as cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere hampers construction activity. And certainly, this year has been no different. However, optimism is slowly returning after 3 significant events, signaling that China is prioritizing growth once again.

對於那些關注幹散貨市場的人來說，到 2023 年的疲軟開局應該不足為奇。第一季度通常會帶來季節性逆風，因為北半球的寒冷天氣阻礙了建築活動。當然，今年也不例外。然而，樂觀情緒在 3 件重大事件後慢慢回歸，表明中國再次將增長放在首位。

Firstly, the discontinuation of the Zero-COVID policy end of last year; secondly, the easing of the three red line policy in the real estate sector; and finally, the easing of the Australian coal import ban. Naturally, a growing Chinese economy will increase the demand for dry bulk commodities, most notably iron ore.

首先，去年年底取消了零新冠政策；二是放寬房地產行業三條紅線政策。最後，放寬澳大利亞煤炭進口禁令。自然地，中國經濟的增長將增加對乾散貨商品的需求，尤其是鐵礦石。

We are not out of the woods yet, and it will take time before the Chinese efforts to revive the economy translates into increasing demand. We must also keep an eye on developments in the Chinese real estate sector, but we are starting to see signs of recovery of the dry markets in the second half of the year is realistic.

我們還沒有走出困境，中國振興經濟的努力轉化為需求增長還需要時間。我們還必須密切關注中國房地產行業的發展，但我們開始看到下半年干貨市場復甦的跡像是現實的。

Another indicator that things are turning around is the GDP growth forecast. The demand for dry bulk commodities is highly correlated with GDP growth. And looking at the IMF forecasts, which were recently revised upwards, by the way, global GDP is set to grow by around 3% in 2023 and 2024. Zooming in on the important emerging Asian economies, growth above 5% is expected both this year and the next. And finally, India's GDP is forecast to grow by more than 6% in 2023 and 2024.

另一個表明情況正在好轉的指標是 GDP 增長預測。幹散貨商品的需求與 GDP 增長高度相關。順便說一句，看看最近上調的國際貨幣基金組織的預測，全球 GDP 將在 2023 年和 2024 年增長 3% 左右。著眼於重要的亞洲新興經濟體，預計今年都將增長 5% 以上和下一個。最後，印度的 GDP 預計在 2023 年和 2024 年將增長 6% 以上。

The forecast remain healthy by historical standards at approximately the 20-year average and should support dry bulk commodity demand. As mentioned, things will take time. but we remain confident that the historically low order book, which I'll talk about on the next slide, combined with the comeback of the Chinese economy, means that the freight market will lift itself back into profitable territory later this year.

以歷史標準衡量，該預測保持在大約 20 年平均水平的健康水平，應該會支持幹散貨商品需求。如前所述，事情需要時間。但我們仍然相信，我將在下一張幻燈片中討論的歷史低位訂單，加上中國經濟的複蘇，意味著貨運市場將在今年晚些時候重新回到盈利領域。

Demand for dry bulk commodities has grown consistently over the past 30 years on average, 30% more than global GDP. In other words, historically, it was not a lack of demand causing dry bulk shipping markets to suffer, it was the shipowners sealing their own faith by contracting too much. This is not the situation today. The highly positive supply situation persists, with growth rates in the coming years at 30-year lows.

過去 30 年來，對乾散貨商品的需求平均持續增長，比全球 GDP 高出 30%。換句話說，從歷史上看，並不是需求不足導致幹散貨航運市場受到影響，而是船東通過簽訂過多合同來鞏固自己的信心。這不是今天的情況。高度積極的供應形勢持續存在，未來幾年的增長率將處於 30 年低點。

Particularly, the Capesize segment looks favorable with the lowest order book of all dry bulk classes. In the Capesize segment, Golden Ocean is, by a margin, the largest owner in the world, a position we cemented this week acquiring 6 Newcastlemax vessels. Another reason for supply side optimism is the commencement of the IMO 2023 regulations, which will reduce the efficiency of the fleet as the majority of the global dry bulk fleet will be forced to slow down to comply.

特別是，好望角型細分市場看起來很受歡迎，在所有乾散貨類別中訂單最少。在好望角型市場，Golden Ocean 以微弱優勢成為世界上最大的船東，本週我們通過收購 6 艘 Newcastlemax 型船舶鞏固了這一地位。供應方樂觀的另一個原因是 IMO 2023 法規的開始實施，這將降低船隊的效率，因為全球大多數幹散貨船隊將被迫放慢速度以遵守規定。

The exact effect of CII and EEXI is hard to quantify. But all other things equal, it will require more vessels to move the same amount of cargo if the global fleet on average is slowing down. The impact of the IMO regulations will grow over time as the threshold for compliance increases. We expect limited impact this year, but from next year and onwards, we expect a meaningful effect.

CII 和 EEXI 的確切影響很難量化。但在所有其他條件相同的情況下，如果全球船隊平均速度放緩，將需要更多的船隻來運送相同數量的貨物。隨著合規門檻的提高，IMO 法規的影響將隨著時間的推移而增加。我們預計今年的影響有限，但從明年及以後，我們預計會產生有意義的影響。

Naturally, with such an attractive supply side, the market does not need spectacular growth. Normalized demand growth will be enough to outpace the supply and create very strong supply-demand fundamentals. So putting supply and demand together, we expect an extended period of sustainable, healthy earnings.

自然地，在如此有吸引力的供應方面，市場不需要驚人的增長。正常化的需求增長將足以超過供應並創造非常強勁的供需基本面。因此，將供需放在一起，我們預計會有一段較長的可持續、健康的收益期。

The world may be facing headwinds in terms of inflation and slowing economies, which means we are having a soft start to 2023. However, it is not enough to offset the long-term outlook for dry bulk with China, as discussed earlier, once again focusing on growth. While we acknowledge macroeconomic factors, we are encouraged by the lifting of the Zero-COVID policy which will boost demand for dry bulk commodities, primarily iron ore.

世界可能面臨通貨膨脹和經濟放緩方面的不利因素，這意味著我們到 2023 年的開局不利。但是，如前所述，這不足以再次抵消中國干散貨的長期前景專注於增長。雖然我們承認宏觀經濟因素，但我們對零 COVID 政策的取消感到鼓舞，這將提振對乾散貨商品（主要是鐵礦石）的需求。

At the same time, we are looking at a historically positive vessel supply situation, and there's nothing that can change that before 2026 given the lack shipyard capacity. The positive supply dynamics combined with Chinese growth, increasing coal demand -- increasing and very tonne mile-heavy bauxite export from West Africa and the impact of IMO 2023 regulations means that it's hard not to be upbeat.

與此同時，我們看到歷史上積極的船舶供應形勢，鑑於造船廠產能不足，在 2026 年之前沒有什麼可以改變的。積極的供應動態加上中國的增長、煤炭需求的增加——西非不斷增加的重達一英里的鋁土礦出口以及 IMO 2023 法規的影響意味著很難不樂觀。

As we usually explain in our calls, we always seek to secure fixed-paying contracts when levels are attractive. And we do that in whatever segment, be it Cape or Panamaxes, that offers the best value. We do not want to be fully spot exposed at any time. For Q1, we have 66% of our vessel days fixed. At an average of around $14,000 per day, this is well above the quarter-to-date market and, of course, the current spot market.

正如我們通常在電話中解釋的那樣，當水平有吸引力時，我們總是尋求獲得固定支付合同。我們在提供最佳價值的任何細分市場都這樣做，無論是好望角型還是巴拿馬型。我們不想在任何時候都完全曝光。對於第一季度，我們有 66% 的船舶天數是固定的。平均每天約 14,000 美元，這遠高於季度至今的市場，當然也高於當前的現貨市場。

Since the turn of the year, we have secured fixed-paying contract coverage for Q2. And combined with our acquisition of 6 Newcastlemax vessels, all with TCs attached, we have raised our coverage to 19% on the Capes, well above cash breakeven levels. For the Panamaxes, we have 14% of the Q2 vessel days covered at $18,000 per day. In other words, we have built a bridge through Q2 into the expected stronger second half of the year.

自今年年初以來，我們已經獲得了第二季度的固定支付合同保障。再加上我們收購了 6 艘 Newcastlemax 型船舶（全部附有 TC），我們已將好望角的覆蓋率提高到 19%，遠高於現金收支平衡水平。對於巴拿馬型，我們有 14% 的第二季度船舶天數以每天 18,000 美元的價格覆蓋。換句話說，我們已經搭建了一座橋樑，通過第二季度進入預期更強勁的下半年。

Before looking at our recent acquisition of 6 Newcastlemaxes, let's talk about cash flow generation. Golden Ocean has the industry's lowest cash breakeven and the largest and most modern fleet. It means we have substantial cash flow potential. For instance, looking at the time charter equivalent rates we have achieved last year, despite a challenging macro background may I add, would on an annualized basis generate $360 million in free cash. This is a direct yield of 19% on today's share price.

在查看我們最近對 6 艘 Newcastlemax 的收購之前，讓我們先談談現金流的產生。 Golden Ocean 擁有業內最低的現金收支平衡和最大、最現代化的船隊。這意味著我們擁有巨大的現金流潛力。例如，看看我們去年取得的期租等效費率，儘管我可以補充一個具有挑戰性的宏觀背景，但按年化計算，將產生 3.6 億美元的自由現金。這是今天股價的 19% 的直接收益率。

It's a bold decision what we do with future earnings, but we have, for the past 8 quarters, paid dividends even when acquiring new vessels. So it is a fair assumption that dividend continues to be a top priority when it comes to our capital allocation.

我們對未來收益所做的決定是一個大膽的決定，但在過去的 8 個季度中，即使在收購新船時，我們也支付了股息。因此，在我們的資本配置方面，股息仍然是重中之重是一個合理的假設。

Earlier in the week, we announced the acquisition of 6 modern Newcastlemax vessels. On my last slide today, I will explain the rationale behind the transaction and how it ties in with our strategy. In the past 3 years, Golden Ocean has acquired or contracted 34 modern and fuel-efficient vessels, while we have been selling 11 older and less-efficient vessels.

本週早些時候，我們宣布收購 6 艘現代 Newcastlemax 型船舶。在我今天的最後一張幻燈片中，我將解釋交易背後的理由以及它如何與我們的戰略聯繫起來。在過去的 3 年裡，Golden Ocean 已經收購或承包了 34 艘現代化且節能的船舶，而我們一直在出售 11 艘老舊且效率較低的船舶。

We have been on a mission to be new and become highly competitive, and ensure we have a future-proof fleet that can comply with environmental regulations and charter requirements. We have financed this fleet renewal through divestments. The 11 vessels we have sold have released $124 million net proceeds, which we have recycled into the equity for the 34 acquisitions. It means we've been able to grow the fleet by 36%, while having paid $840 million in dividend.

我們一直肩負著創新和具有高度競爭力的使命，並確保我們擁有一支能夠滿足環境法規和憲章要求的面向未來的機隊。我們通過撤資為這次機隊更新提供資金。我們出售的 11 艘船舶釋放了 1.24 億美元的淨收益，我們已將其回收到 34 艘收購的股權中。這意味著我們已經能夠將機隊增加 36%，同時支付了 8.4 億美元的股息。

The latest transaction is a continuation of that strategy, and a transaction which we believe is well timed and well structured. To begin with, we have been able to acquire these modern vessels at an attractive price well below the market level, taking advantage of what we believe is a temporary weakness in asset prices. Further, the acquisition is structured in a way where we get instant cash flow supporting our dividend capacity and protecting us against near-term uncertainties.

最新的交易是該戰略的延續，我們認為交易的時機和結構都很好。首先，我們能夠以遠低於市場水平的有吸引力的價格收購這些現代船舶，利用我們認為資產價格暫時疲軟的優勢。此外，此次收購的結構使我們能夠獲得即時現金流來支持我們的股息能力並保護我們免受近期不確定性的影響。

However, in the medium run, the vessels will be charter free end of 2025, at a time when influx of vessels will have been historically low for years and where the requirements for CII regulations have become much tighter than today. The vessels are super efficient and will have no CII compliance issues. Also, they command a premium to a standard [Baltic] vessel of up to 139%, and on top of that comes the premium from the scrubbers.

然而，從中期來看，這些船隻將在 2025 年底實現免費租用，屆時船隻的湧入量多年來一直處於歷史低位，而且 CII 法規的要求比現在更加嚴格。這些船隻效率極高，不會有 CII 合規性問題。此外，與標準 [波羅的海] 船隻相比，它們的溢價高達 139%，最重要的是來自洗滌器的溢價。

Acquiring these vessels will, therefore, not only improve our cash flow generation potential, but also contribute 2.5 percentage points towards our ambition of reaching a 30% reduction in emissions before 2030.

因此，收購這些船隻不僅會提高我們產生現金流的潛力，還會為我們在 2030 年之前實現減排 30% 的目標貢獻 2.5 個百分點。

Before opening up for questions, I'd like to shortly wrap up 3 main points from today's release. Golden Ocean outperformed the market again in Q4, beating the indices by an average of $7,500 per day across our entire fleet. Despite a soft start to 2023, we see signs that the market could rebound soon, driven mainly by the reopening of China.

在開始提問之前，我想簡要總結一下今天發布的 3 個要點。 Golden Ocean 在第四季度再次跑贏市場，整個船隊平均每天超過指數 7,500 美元。儘管 2023 年開局疲軟，但我們看到市場可能很快反彈的跡象，這主要是受中國重新開放的推動。

Golden Ocean continues to focus on returning capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, but we do so while prudently investing for the future as proven by our acquisition of 6 modern vessels this week.

Golden Ocean 繼續專注於通過股息和股票回購向我們的股東返還資本，但我們在這樣做的同時謹慎地為未來投資，本週我們收購了 6 艘現代船舶就證明了這一點。

Before I hand the word over to the operator, please remember, you can follow Golden Ocean and myself on LinkedIn for news and updates on Golden Ocean. Operator, over to you.

在我把話交給接線員之前，請記住，您可以在 LinkedIn 上關注 Golden Ocean 和我本人，以獲取有關 Golden Ocean 的新聞和更新。接線員，交給你了。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Omar Nokta from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta。

I did want to ask just a bit about the market and how we're seeing things develop here recently. And just from your perspective -- and you touched on this during the presentation, but in general, what do you think has changed in the dry bulk market that caused the seasonal low that we're in now to be a bit more pronounced and lead to such a big drop in earnings? Has it been iron ore specific? Is it coal? Is it just across the board? What would you say, just kind of broadly speaking, has caused rates to come off so aggressively this year versus last year?

我確實想問一些關於市場的問題，以及我們最近是如何看待這裡的事情發展的。從你的角度來看——你在演講中提到了這一點，但總的來說，你認為乾散貨市場發生了什麼變化，導致我們現在所處的季節性低點變得更加明顯並領先收入下降如此之大？它是特定於鐵礦石的嗎？是煤嗎？它只是一刀切嗎？從廣義上講，您會說什麼導致今年的利率與去年相比如此大幅下降？

Ulrik here, thank you for the question. You are right, it has been an exceptionally weak start to the year. I mean Q1 is seasonally the weakest quarter, so that as such is not a surprise. But clearly, rates are now very, very low and also lower than I think most have expected, certainly ourselves. The reason why we are where we are is primarily due to a lack of iron ore exports out of Brazil. They are really pumping at low levels also compared to last year, and we are simply not seeing a lot of activity.

Ulrik 在這裡，謝謝你的提問。你是對的，今年開局異常疲軟。我的意思是第一季度是季節性最弱的季度，因此這並不令人意外。但很明顯，利率現在非常非常低，也低於我認為大多數人的預期，當然也低於我們自己的預期。我們處於現狀的原因主要是由於巴西缺乏鐵礦石出口。與去年相比，它們的產量確實也很低，我們根本看不到很多活動。

So this would be the main, you can say, culprit. Clearly, there's no help from congestion or anything else either. So we are faced with a very inactive market, and that is, of course, causing the pressure. From a positive perspective, you can say we don't see bauxite or coal volumes being hit as hard, but we cannot expect the markets to be good without iron ore. It is that simple. And right now, there is no iron ore flowing as we speak.

所以這將是主要的，你可以說，罪魁禍首。顯然，擁堵或其他任何因素都無濟於事。因此，我們面臨著一個非常不活躍的市場，這當然會造成壓力。從積極的角度來看，您可以說我們沒有看到鋁土礦或煤炭產量受到如此嚴重的打擊，但我們不能指望沒有鐵礦石的市場會很好。就這麼簡單。現在，就在我們說話的時候，沒有鐵礦石在流動。

Okay. That's helpful. I guess because we have seen obviously stronger steel prices and higher iron ore, and I guess it's -- but it's not yet translating into the freight market. And I guess no indications just yet of higher demand. Obviously, the backdrop is there or the fundamental story is there. But as of right now, still charters on the sidelines waiting for things to pick up.

好的。這很有幫助。我猜是因為我們已經看到明顯走強的鋼鐵價格和更高的鐵礦石價格，我想是——但它還沒有轉化為貨運市場。我想目前還沒有跡象表明需求會增加。顯然，背景在那里或基本故事在那裡。但截至目前，仍在場邊包機等待情況好轉。

Yes, that's right. I mean we have to eat through, can you say, a little backlog of vessels before this turns around. And we see the same indicators. We didn't mention it here on the call. But clearly, the iron ore prices is another factor. And when we start lining up the various factors, we have a good idea and a good indication that things will turn.

恩，那就對了。我的意思是，在這一切好轉之前，我們必須吃完一些積壓的船隻。我們看到了相同的指標。我們沒有在電話中提到它。但顯然，鐵礦石價格是另一個因素。當我們開始排列各種因素時，我們就有了一個好主意和一個很好的跡象表明事情會發生轉變。

I think we have been -- when I look at the analysts out there, there are some that are very poor and then there are some that are [bullish]. And I think we are a little cautious and have also been trying to, can you say, coordinate our strategy, our chartering strategy according to that. We have a fair amount of coal for Q2. So we have essentially set ourselves up to wait for that, can you say, effect of China primarily reaching the freight markets.

我認為我們一直是——當我觀察那裡的分析師時，有一些非常糟糕，還有一些 [看漲]。而且我認為我們有點謹慎，並且也一直在努力，你能說，根據那個來協調我們的戰略，我們的特許戰略。第二季度我們有相當數量的煤炭。因此，我們基本上已經準備好等待中國主要進入貨運市場的影響。

We don't have a crystal ball here, and we don't know if it happens in Q2 or Q3 or Q4. Our strategy is, as I say, set ourselves up to wait. And then eventually, we believe that we will see, can you say, the effects of what is going on in, yes, primarily China, filter down to the freight rates. But if we look outside, iron ore, there are also some other things. But we are, can you say, positive about the ever-increasing demand for coal. China has opened up now for Australian coal. That is good news for the larger-sized vessels.

我們這裡沒有水晶球，我們不知道它會發生在第二季度、第三季度還是第四季度。正如我所說，我們的策略是讓自己等待。然後最終，我們相信我們會看到，你能說，是的，主要是中國正在發生的事情的影響，會滲透到運費率上。但是如果我們從外面看，鐵礦石，還有一些其他的東西。但是，您能說，我們對不斷增長的煤炭需求持樂觀態度嗎？中國現在已經對澳大利亞煤炭開放。這對大型船舶來說是個好消息。

We have, of course, bauxite, which is really starting to become a factor. It is a long-haul tonnes. It's actually more tonne-mile heavy than from Brazil, and we think that will provide a [kick] as well. All we need now is a little help from China, and then we get that flash in the pan and hopefully start -- that rates will start taking off. But I'm not going to sit here today and say that's going to happen on the 25th of March or 25th of April, but we see the signals and we are positioning for that upside. And I think that's the message, if you yourself want to position as a shareholder or an investor, then we are a good bet.

當然，我們有鋁土礦，它確實開始成為一個因素。這是一個長途運輸噸。它實際上比來自巴西的噸英里重，我們認為這也會提供 [踢球]。我們現在所需要的只是來自中國的一點幫助，然後我們就會曇花一現，並希望開始——利率將開始上升。但我今天不會坐在這裡說這將在 3 月 25 日或 4 月 25 日發生，但我們看到了信號，我們正在為這種上漲做準備。我認為這就是信息，如果你自己想定位為股東或投資者，那麼我們是一個不錯的選擇。

Good. The ingredients are there. I appreciate that color. And maybe just following up on coal. As you mentioned, China has reopened up the coal imports from Australia. One of the big things driving coal over the past maybe year or 2 has been just a high price of natural gas, and we have seen LNG prices coming down here. Do you see any potential headwind to the coal story of switching from coal back to gas? Is that having an impact yet? Or do you see that having a bigger risk?

好的。成分在那裡。我很欣賞那種顏色。也許只是跟進煤炭。正如你所說，中國已經重新開放了從澳大利亞進口煤炭。在過去的一兩年裡推動煤炭發展的一大因素就是天然氣價格高企，我們已經看到液化天然氣價格在下降。您是否看到從煤炭轉向天然氣的煤炭故事有任何潛在的不利因素？那有影響嗎？或者你認為這有更大的風險？

We don't see that at all. On the contrary, I think -- we think that the world got a bit of a shock really with what happened after the invasion of Ukraine and suddenly security of supply. Energy supply is right up there on the top of the agenda. I think, particularly India, is interesting here, but also China, of course.

我們根本看不到這一點。相反，我認為 - 我們認為世界對烏克蘭入侵和突然供應安全後發生的事情感到震驚。能源供應就在議程的首位。我認為，尤其是印度，這裡很有趣，當然還有中國。

We -- our analysis, our take, and you can then be -- tell me what you think. But our take is that because China -- the reason why China is opening up for Australian coal is because they are going into a bit of a growth phase, and that the increase in the domestic production last year is not sustainable over time. It's low quality and they've had a lot of accidents. And so we see that as a signal that China will import more as well.

我們 - 我們的分析，我們的看法，然後你可以 - 告訴我你的想法。但我們的看法是，因為中國——中國對澳大利亞煤炭開放的原因是因為它們正進入一個增長階段，而且隨著時間的推移，去年國內產量的增長是不可持續的。這是低質量的，他們發生了很多事故。所以我們認為這是一個信號，表明中國也將進口更多。

So generally, actually, no, on the demand side, we are very positive. We think the largest constraint is probably the supply side. Will there be enough coal to actually -- to pump out, is probably the question. Everything that gets pumped out will get shipped as we are relatively confident about.

所以總的來說，實際上，不，在需求方面，我們非常積極。我們認為最大的製約因素可能是供應方。是否有足夠的煤炭實際開采出來，這可能是個問題。正如我們相對自信的那樣，抽出的所有東西都會被運出。

And the question comes from the line of Sherif Elmaghrabi from BTIG.

問題來自 BTIG 的 Sherif Elmaghrabi。

Just one from me. You mentioned emissions regulations are going to have a bigger impact on the fleet over the next few years, really starting next year. So have you given any thought to what you might need to do with some of the oldest vessels in your fleet? Could we see retrofit? Do you expect them to be in compliance for some time? Or is the strategy continued monetization?

就我一個。你提到排放法規將在未來幾年對車隊產生更大的影響，真正從明年開始。那麼，您是否考慮過您可能需要如何處理船隊中一些最古老的船隻？我們能看到改造嗎？您希望他們在一段時間內遵守規定嗎？還是該策略繼續貨幣化？

Thank you for the question and a very relevant and good question. Maybe I can just very quickly elaborate on the point with the CII. The reason why we don't think CII will be -- that impact for this year is a combination of, of course, the threshold is still relatively low for compliance. And secondly, the markets are very weak at the moment, and it means that there's no need for full steaming. The vessels are already slow steaming as it is. So that cap that many people have put on the -- on their vessels will not really have any impact.

感謝您提出這個問題，這是一個非常相關且很好的問題。也許我可以很快地詳細說明 CII 的觀點。我們認為 CII 不會的原因是——今年的影響當然是合規的門檻仍然相對較低。其次，目前市場非常疲軟，這意味著沒有必要全力以赴。船隻已經在緩慢航行。因此，許多人在他們的船隻上設置的上限不會真正產生任何影響。

So the point is that, as we go forward, every year this threshold will increase by 2%, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it is actually a lot when you see over 2, 3 years. So you will have an aging fleet, you will have a tighter threshold, and ultimately, you will see more vessels getting into a territory where it would become more difficult to retain full commercial flexibility.

所以重點是，隨著我們的前進，每年這個門檻都會增加 2%，這聽起來並不多，但當你看到超過 2、3 年時，它實際上很多。因此，您將擁有一支老化的船隊，您將擁有更嚴格的門檻，最終，您將看到更多的船隻進入一個更難保持完全商業靈活性的區域。

For Golden Ocean's point of view, we are -- this is not something that we have woken up and realized, can you say, today or yesterday, it's something we have been working with over the past couple of years, right? I mean we have been, as I said on the call, divesting 11 vessels and invested in 34 modern vessels in anticipation of this regulation, but of course, also, other environmental regulations that we anticipate will impact the market.

對於 Golden Ocean 的觀點，我們 - 這不是我們已經醒來並意識到的事情，你能說今天或昨天，這是我們過去幾年一直在努力的事情，對嗎？我的意思是，正如我在電話會議上所說，我們已經剝離了 11 艘船舶並投資了 34 艘現代船舶，以應對這一規定，當然，我們預計其他環境法規也會影響市場。

So we have -- we'll continue divesting our oldest tonnage. And the tonnage in the middle group, you can say, we will upgrade and we have been upgrading with low-friction paint, sensors, Mewis Ducts, [propulsion] systems and so on and so forth. And then finally, we have the newbuilds or the most modern ones, which we don't need to do anything with per se. But of course, if there is an upgrade that has a short payback time, we will install that as well. So it's a combination of several things.

所以我們 - 我們將繼續剝離我們最老的噸位。而中間組的噸位，你可以說，我們將升級，我們一直在升級低摩擦油漆、傳感器、Mewis Ducts、[推進] 系統等等。最後，我們有新的或最現代的，我們本身不需要做任何事情。但是，當然，如果有一個回報時間短的升級，我們也會安裝它。所以它是幾件事的結合。

And then clearly, in the longer run, we will need to look towards different propulsion systems, and we are monitoring that space as well. But as long as there's no clear, genuine, future-proof technology out there, we believe that the best position you can have is to have the most modern fleet, the most upgraded fleet, because then you -- there are 2,000 Capes out there or more, so there would be an extremely long tail of vessels that will have problems before you do. And it's not realistic to picture a situation where all Capes become obsolete overnight. So that is kind of, in broad pencil strokes, how we look at CII and, for that matter, other regulations of -- environmental regulations.

然後很明顯，從長遠來看，我們將需要關注不同的推進系統，我們也在監控這個空間。但只要那裡沒有明確、真正、面向未來的技術，我們相信你能擁有的最佳位置就是擁有最現代化的艦隊，最升級的艦隊，因為那時你——那裡有 2000 艘 Capes或更多，所以會有一個非常長的船尾，在你做之前就會有問題。想像所有斗篷在一夜之間都過時的情況是不現實的。因此，這就是我們如何看待 CII 以及其他環境法規的方式。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. And I would like now to hand the conference over to our speaker, Ulrik Andersen, for closing remarks.

（操作員說明）目前沒有其他問題。現在我想將會議交給我們的發言人 Ulrik Andersen 作閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for dialing in and listening, and we will be hearing and seeing you again soon. Thank you very much.

謝謝你，運營商。謝謝大家撥入和收聽，我們很快就會再次聽到和見到你。非常感謝。