Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Grocery Outlet fiscal third-quarter 2024 earnings results conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    歡迎來到雜貨店 2024 年第三季財報會議。(操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Christine Chen, VP of Investor Relations. You may begin.

    現在我很高興向您介紹主持人,投資者關係副總裁 Christine Chen。你可以開始了。

  • Christine Chen - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Christine Chen - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Grocery Outlet's call to discuss financial results for the third quarter for the period ending September 28, 2024.

    下午好,歡迎接到 Grocery Outlet 的電話,討論截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日的第三季財務業績。

  • Speaking from management on today's call will be Eric Lindberg, Chairman of the Board and Interim President and Chief Executive Officer; and Lindsay Gray, Interim Chief Financial Officer and SVP of Accounting. Following prepared remarks from Eric and Lindsay, we will open the call for questions.

    董事會主席兼臨時總裁兼執行長 Eric Lindberg 將在今天的電話會議上發表管理層講話; Lindsay Gray,臨時財務長兼會計資深副總裁。在埃里克和林賽準備好的發言之後,我們將開始提問。

  • Please note that this conference call is being webcast live and a recording will be available via telephone playback on the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

    請注意,本次電話會議正在進行網路直播,錄音將在公司網站的投資者關係部分透過電話播放提供。

  • Participants on this call may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements that address future operating, financial or business performance or the company's strategies or expectations or forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. A description of these factors can be found in this afternoon's press release as well as the company's periodic reports filed with the SEC, all of which may be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website or on sec.gov.

    本次電話會議的參與者可能會做出聯邦證券法意義內的前瞻性聲明。所有涉及未來營運、財務或業務績效或公司策略或預期的聲明或前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異。這些因素的描述可以在今天下午的新聞稿以及公司向 SEC 提交的定期報告中找到,所有這些都可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分或 sec.gov 上找到。

  • And now I will turn it over to Eric.

    現在我將把它交給艾瑞克。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

    大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。

  • Before we get into the review of the third quarter, let me just acknowledge that we are reporting our results in a transitional moment. Last week, we announced that RJ Sheedy agreed to step down from the President and CEO positions and from the company's Board of Directors. I want to thank RJ for all of his contributions over the last 12 years. RJ has played a critical role in scaling and evolving our business, helping to set our foundation for the future.

    在我們回顧第三季度之前,請允許我承認我們正在過渡時期報告我們的結果。上週,我們宣布 RJ Sheedy 同意辭去總裁兼執行長職務以及公司董事會職務。我要感謝 RJ 在過去 12 年中所做的所有貢獻。RJ 在擴展和發展我們的業務方面發揮了關鍵作用,幫助我們為未來奠定了基礎。

  • I have returned to Grocery Outlet full time, serving as Interim President and CEO. This is my first week in the role, and I can honestly say that I'm really excited to be back. I'm working closely with the Grocery Outlet team and our independent operators again. The Board has retained a leading global executive search firm to begin the process of hiring a permanent President and CEO. Until then, I'll be fully engaged in the business plan made significant progress on the priorities, which we'll share more details on during this call.

    我已全職返回 Grocery Outlet,擔任臨時總裁兼執行長。這是我擔任該職位的第一周,老實說我很高興能回來。我再次與雜貨店團隊和我們的獨立運營商密切合作。董事會已聘請一家全球領先的獵人頭公司來開始聘用常任總裁兼執行長的流程。在那之前,我將全力參與業務計劃,並在優先事項上取得重大進展,我們將在本次電話會議中分享更多細節。

  • As I told our team and our operators last week, and I'll reiterate to you today, we have made a leadership change, but we are not changing our underlying strategy or commitment to what has differentiated us for almost 80 years. Grocery Outlet delivers unbeatable value, a unique treasure hunt shopping experience, and amazing customer service through our best-in-class opportunistic buying model and independently operated neighborhood grocery stores.

    正如我上週告訴我們的團隊和運營商的那樣,今天我將向你們重申,我們已經進行了領導層變更,但我們並沒有改變我們的基本戰略或對近 80 年來使我們脫穎而出的承諾。Grocery Outlet 透過我們一流的機會主義購買模式和獨立經營的社區雜貨店提供無與倫比的價值、獨特的尋寶購物體驗和出色的客戶服務。

  • We have proven over many years that when we execute, our value proposition resonates across demographics, geographies and almost any macroeconomic environment. This transition is about refocusing on strong execution and doubling down on that differentiated value proposition. I'd like to share my perspectives on four areas: where we are today, our Q3 highlights, where we'll be focused in the near term, and implications on our guidance.

    多年來我們已經證明,當我們執行時,我們的價值主張會在人口統計、地理和幾乎任何宏觀經濟環境中產生共鳴。這項轉變是為了重新關注強而有力的執行力,並加倍努力實現差異化的價值主張。我想分享我對四個領域的看法:我們今天的處境、第三季的亮點、我們近期的重點以及對我們指導的影響。

  • Let me start with where we are today. First, on systems. In August of 2023, we transitioned to SAP from our legacy systems and experienced significant issues, including poor data visibility, slow system speeds, and a loss of tools and functionality. These issues hurt our buyers' ability to write purchase orders efficiently, our inventory planning and supply chain team's ability to accurately manage inventory and our operators' ability to see real-time inventory in their order guide to bring product into their stores. The impact on the business has been significant, and we have made substantial progress over the last year, including ending operator commission support.

    讓我從我們今天的處境開始。首先,在製度上。2023 年 8 月,我們從舊系統過渡到 SAP,並遇到了重大問題,包括資料可見性差、系統速度慢以及工具和功能遺失。這些問題損害了我們的買家有效編寫採購訂單的能力、我們的庫存計劃和供應鏈團隊準確管理庫存的能力以及我們的操作員在訂單指南中查看實時庫存以將產品帶入商店的能力。這對業務的影響是巨大的,我們在去年取得了實質進展,包括終止營運商佣金支援。

  • While the new system is fully functional, work remains to improve visibility into additional operating data to increase speed and to refine the tools that we and our operators use to manage the business. This work is critical to executing our dynamic business effectively.

    雖然新系統功能齊全,但仍需要提高對其他營運數據的可見性,以提高速度並完善我們和營運商用於管理業務的工具。這項工作對於有效執行我們充滿活力的業務至關重要。

  • Next, on execution. The disruptions from our systems transition strained our organization and resources, making execution of the core business more challenging. Furthermore, we have a list of great growth initiatives that we've covered with you on previous calls. But upon reflection, we probably have tried to do too much at once, further impacting our everyday execution. We are going to stop pursuing any of these exciting initiatives we have, but we need to be measured in the pace of the rollout as we prioritize our execution.

    接下來,關於執行。系統轉型造成的中斷使我們的組織和資源緊張,使核心業務的執行更具挑戰性。此外,我們在先前的電話會議中向您介紹了一系列出色的成長計劃。但仔細想想,我們可能試圖一次做太多事情,進一步影響了我們的日常執行。我們將停止推行任何這些令人興奮的舉措,但在確定執行優先事項時,我們需要衡量推出的速度。

  • And finally, on value. As discussed on the call in Q2, we missed the mark on value earlier this year due to a combination of pricing actions we took to reestablish healthy margins that coincided with competitive pricing that picked up. For years, we have measured our value to deliver customers through a series of metrics.

    最後,關於價值。正如第二季電話會議中所討論的那樣,由於我們為重建健康的利潤率而採取的一系列定價行動,與競爭性定價的回升相一致,我們今年早些時候未能實現價值目標。多年來,我們透過一系列指標來衡量我們為客戶提供的價值。

  • First, the total percentage savings we deliver customers on their basket. We target approximately 40% savings versus conventional grocers and approximately 20% savings versus discounters. Second, we target price parity with deep discounters on a list of key commodity items, for example, milk and eggs.

    首先,我們為客戶提供的購物籃所節省的總百分比。我們的目標是與傳統雜貨店相比節省約 40%,與折扣店相比節省約 20%。其次,我們的目標是與一系列關鍵商品(例如牛奶和雞蛋)上的深度折扣商保持價格平價。

  • And third, we measure the share of sales we generate from items with more than 60% savings versus conventional retailers. This captures the extreme value the treasure hunt experience in our stores and represents the deals that our customers tell their friends and family members about. As we look at these metrics, we are feeling confident about where our overall basket savings level and commodity pricing are sitting right now, but still have some work to do on delivering the extreme 60% value items on a consistent basis to our customers.

    第三,我們衡量了與傳統零售商相比折扣超過 60% 的商品所產生的銷售份額。這體現了我們商店中尋寶體驗的極端價值,並代表了我們的客戶告訴他們的朋友和家人的優惠。當我們查看這些指標時,我們對目前的整體購物籃儲蓄水平和商品定價充滿信心,但仍需要做一些工作才能向客戶提供一致的 60% 超值商品。

  • We made strong progress on restoring value through Q3, and our relative value has improved. Our value is strong, and we are on the right path to where we want to be. We just need to execute better in this area.

    第三季我們在價值恢復方面取得了巨大進展,我們的相對價值也有所提升。我們的價值是強大的,我們正走在通往我們想要的目標的正確道路上。我們只需要在這個領域做得更好。

  • Let me share a bit about third-quarter results. While we are disappointed with our weaker comp store sales of 1.2 given the execution issues I mentioned above, we delivered strong double-digit top-line growth. Our two-year stack comp was a healthy 7.6% ahead of our long-term algorithm.

    讓我分享一些有關第三季業績的資訊。儘管考慮到我上面提到的執行問題,我們對 1.2 的比較店銷售額疲軟感到失望,但我們實現了強勁的兩位數營收成長。我們的兩年堆疊比較比我們的長期演算法高出 7.6%。

  • Our comp transaction count was up 2% in Q3 and 10.6% on a two-year basis, showing that despite execution challenges, our model continues to resonate. We opened five net new stores, increasing our store count to 529 locations at quarter end. Our new store growth algorithm is back on track.

    我們的比較交易數量在第三季度增長了 2%,比兩年增長了 10.6%,這表明儘管執行方面存在挑戰,但我們的模型繼續引起共鳴。我們淨開了 5 家新店,季度末門市數量增至 529 家。我們新的商店成長演算法已重回正軌。

  • Our gross profit margin was on plan, and this flowed through to a beat on adjusted EBITDA. Lindsay will share some more of those Q3 results in just a moment. This is a great business, and when we execute, we deliver industry-leading value through a unique shopping experience that can't be beat. My near-term priorities are to refocus on the core tenets of this model. Number one, it all starts with value.

    我們的毛利率符合計劃,調整後的 EBITDA 也實現了成長。Lindsay 稍後將分享更多第三季的結果。這是一項偉大的業務,當我們執行時,我們透過無與倫比的獨特購物體驗提供業界領先的價值。我的近期優先事項是重新關注該模型的核心原則。第一,一切都始於價值。

  • As mentioned, we must consistently deliver across our key value metrics to create an exciting treasure hunt shop every time the customer steps foot in one of our stores. The closeout buying environment remains very healthy. Deal flow is very strong, and we believe that we are still the best partner in the industry. Consumers continue to prioritize value, and we are well positioned to capture growth in this environment.

    如前所述,我們必須始終如一地提供關鍵價值指標,以便在顧客每次踏入我們的商店時創建一個令人興奮的尋寶店。清倉購買環境仍然非常健康。交易流量非常強勁,我們相信我們仍然是業界中最好的合作夥伴。消費者繼續優先考慮價值,我們處於有利地位,可以在這種環境下實現成長。

  • Number two, supporting our independent operators. The systems disruptions have made the last year, incredibly challenging for operators, and the inefficiencies have pulled them away from doing what they love, serving their communities.

    第二,支援我們的獨立營運商。去年,系統中斷為營運商帶來了極大的挑戰,效率低也讓他們無法做自己喜歡的事情,為社區服務。

  • Being an independent operator is not easy, and the resolve or IOs have shown this past year is just incredible. We are focusing on giving our operators the tools and the support that they need to execute their business efficiently and to amaze our customers. I really look forward to reconnecting with the operator community in person over the coming weeks.

    成為獨立經營者並不容易,過去一年 IO 所表現出的決心令人難以置信。我們致力於為營運商提供高效執行業務所需的工具和支持,並讓我們的客戶驚嘆不已。我真的很期待在未來幾週內與營運商社群重新建立聯繫。

  • Number three, completing our systems transition work. We need the tools to operate at speed and efficiency that enable our internal teams to execute this business at its full potential. Full functionality of these tools is a critical piece of that model. In addition to getting operators all the tools they need, improving systems functionality for our internal teams is critical to improving efficiency to increasing automation and to reducing process workarounds that we've been forced to implement over the past year and simply taking our teams too long to do the basics.

    第三,完成我們的系統過渡工作。我們需要能夠快速且有效率地運作的工具,使我們的內部團隊能夠充分發揮這項業務的潛力。這些工具的完整功能是這個模型的關鍵部分。除了為操作員提供他們需要的所有工具之外,改進我們內部團隊的系統功能對於提高效率、提高自動化程度以及減少我們在過去一年中被迫實施的流程變通辦法至關重要,這些變通辦法只是讓我們的團隊花了太長時間做基礎工作。

  • And lastly, I'll be working on simplifying our priorities to enable our teams to focus on execution of the core business. If I've learned one thing in my 30-plus years here at Grocery Outlet is that we are at our best when we're focused on executing the basics and a small set of strategic priorities.

    最後,我將致力於簡化我們的優先事項,使我們的團隊能夠專注於核心業務的執行。如果說我在 Grocery Outlet 工作的 30 多年裡學到了一件事,那就是,當我們專注於執行基本任務和一小部分策略優先事項時,我們就會處於最佳狀態。

  • One weekend, I'm still getting my arms around the detailed operating plans of the business. I'll take the time in the coming weeks working with the leadership team to take a step back and ensure that we are hyper focused on the right set of priorities that will enable us to be successful.

    一個週末,我仍在研究公司的詳細營運計劃。在接下來的幾週內,我將花時間與領導團隊合作,確保我們高度專注於正確的優先事項,從而使我們成功。

  • At the core, this business is about delivering unbeatable value on a relevant assortment with great customer service every day. We have to execute the basics. I look forward to sharing more with you on the next call.

    該業務的核心是每天透過優質的客戶服務為相關品種提供無與倫比的價值。我們必須執行基礎工作。我期待在下次通話中與您分享更多資訊。

  • So having covered our current state, Q3 performance and our near-term focus areas, let me provide some insight into the resetting of our guidance for the balance of the year. At the core, our business fundamentals are solid. We have a strong value proposition in the market, we are growing top line sales in the double digits, and we have a long runway for growth. Our recent execution challenges we described are making this business harder to forecast than usual, harder than any time in my 30-year career with the company.

    因此,在介紹了我們當前的狀況、第三季的業績和我們近期的重點領域之後,讓我為今年剩餘時間指導的重置提供一些見解。從本質上講,我們的業務基礎是堅實的。我們在市場上擁有強大的價值主張,我們的營收以兩位數的速度成長,而且我們還有很長的成長道路。我們所描述的最近的執行挑戰使這項業務比平常更難預測,比我在公司 30 年職業生涯中的任何時候都更難。

  • In light of this, we took a hard look at our Q4 forecast and landed where we feel is appropriate given our recent track record of forecasting and missing guidance. While we made strong progress on our relative value proposition, in Q3, we recognize that we are not fully where we need to be. Restoring our value proposition has taken longer than expected due to the systems inefficiencies discussed in the competitive environment. We do not see the competitive environment as a fundamental impediment to getting back to where we want to be on value.

    有鑑於此,我們仔細審視了第四季度的預測,考慮到我們最近的預測記錄和缺失的指導,我們得出了我們認為合適的預測。儘管我們在第三季的相對價值主張方面取得了巨大進展,但我們認識到我們還沒有完全達到我們需要達到的目標。由於競爭環境中討論的系統效率低下,恢復我們的價值主張花費的時間比預期的要長。我們不認為競爭環境是回到我們想要的價值目標的根本障礙。

  • We have a strong history of navigating changing competitive environments, and we will continue to balance value and margin with our opportunistic buying model. There are some higher expenses that we did not anticipate earlier in the year that impacted adjusted EBITDA in Q3 and will continue to flow through the fourth quarter. While the new system is fully functional, we are still investing in enhancements and adding extra internal and external resources, resulting in higher costs, which should be largely temporary.

    我們在應對不斷變化的競爭環境方面擁有悠久的歷史,我們將繼續透過機會主義購買模式來平衡價值和利潤。今年早些時候我們沒有預料到一些較高的費用,這些費用影響了第三季調整後的 EBITDA,並將繼續影響到第四季度。雖然新系統功能齊全,但我們仍在投資增強功能並添加額外的內部和外部資源,導致成本增加,這在很大程度上應該是暫時的。

  • In addition, our Q4 SG&A estimate was a bit too low, and our updated guidance reflects a number more consistent with Q3 levels. The net result is an approximately $16 million reduction in anticipated full-year adjusted EBITDA from the midpoint. We recognize this as a significant downward revision. We've stared at this a lot.

    此外,我們對第四季度 SG&A 的估計有點太低,而我們更新後的指引反映了與第三季水準更一致的數字。最終結果是預期全年調整後 EBITDA 較中位數減少約 1,600 萬美元。我們認為這是一次重大的向下修正。我們對此已經關注了很多次。

  • But given where Q3 came out on my recent return to the seat, we think this is a prudent estimate. I'd like to now pass the call over to Lindsay to share more about our financial results. Thanks.

    但考慮到我最近重返席位後第三季的表現,我們認為這是一個謹慎的估計。我現在想將電話轉接給 Lindsay,分享更多有關我們財務表現的資訊。謝謝。

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Welcome back, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Net sales increased 10.4% to $1.11 billion during the third quarter due to new store sales and a 1.2% increase in comparable store sales, which represents 7.6% comp growth on a two-year basis. Comp transaction growth of 2% was partially offset by a 0.7% decline in our average basket. Comps during the summer months were challenging but accelerated in September to 3.8%.

    歡迎回來,埃里克,大家下午好。由於新店銷售和可比店面銷售額成長 1.2%,第三季淨銷售額成長 10.4%,達到 11.1 億美元,相當於兩年複合成長率 7.6%。2% 的比較交易成長被我們的平均籃子 0.7% 的下降部分抵消。夏季月份的比較充滿挑戰,但 9 月加速至 3.8%。

  • Our third-quarter gross profit increased 9.2% to $344.9 million. Gross margin rate of 31.1% was 10 basis points ahead of our expectations and a 20-basis-point sequential improvement from the second quarter. SG&A expense increased 9.5% to $304.6 million compared to the third quarter of 2023. Net interest expense increased 52.4% to $6.4 million, driven by higher average principal debt to enable share repurchases and other cash outlays to support the continued growth of the business after the acquisition of United Grocery Outlet earlier this year.

    我們第三季的毛利成長 9.2%,達到 3.449 億美元。毛利率為 31.1%,比我們預期高出 10 個基點,比第二季較上季提高 20 個基點。與 2023 年第三季相比,SG&A 費用成長 9.5%,達到 3.046 億美元。淨利息支出增加 52.4%,達到 640 萬美元,原因是今年稍早收購 United Grocery Outlet 後,平均本金債務增加,以便進行股票回購和其他現金支出,以支持業務的持續成長。

  • Our effective GAAP tax rate during the quarter was 28.6%, an increase over the effective tax rate in the third quarter of 2023 of 18.6%. The primarily driven by lower excess tax benefits related to the exercise of stock options, non-deductible acquisition and integration costs related to the acquisition of UGO and lower pretax book income.

    本季我們的有效 GAAP 稅率為 28.6%,比 2023 年第三季的有效稅率 18.6% 增加。主要是由於與行使股票選擇權相關的超額稅收優惠減少、與收購 UGO 相關的不可扣除的收購和整合成本以及稅前帳面收入減少。

  • GAAP net income for the third quarter was $24.2 million, or $0.24 per fully diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6% to $72.3 million for the quarter, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 6.5% of net sales, 10 basis points ahead of our expectations and a 50-basis-point sequential improvement from the second quarter. Adjusted net income was $27.9 million for the quarter or $0.28 per fully diluted share.

    第三季 GAAP 淨利潤為 2,420 萬美元,即完全稀釋每股收益 0.24 美元。本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 6%,達到 7,230 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為淨銷售額的 6.5%,比我們的預期高出 10 個基點,比第二季度環比提高 50 個基點。該季度調整後淨利潤為 2,790 萬美元,即完全稀釋後每股收益 0.28 美元。

  • Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $68.7 million of cash. Inventory at the end of the quarter totaled $396.9 million. Total debt was $429.3 million at the end of the third quarter with net leverage of about 1.5x.

    轉向我們的資產負債表。本季結束時,我們的現金為 6870 萬美元。該季度末的庫存總額為 3.969 億美元。截至第三季末,總負債為 4.293 億美元,淨槓桿約 1.5 倍。

  • During the third quarter, we repurchased about 1.2 million shares of stock, totaling $25 million at an average price of $21.50. Subsequent to quarter end, we repurchased an additional 1.5 million shares of common stock totaling $25 million at an average price of $16.62 per share.

    第三季度,我們回購了約 120 萬股股票,總額為 2,500 萬美元,平均價格為 21.50 美元。季度末後,我們以每股 16.62 美元的平均價格額外回購了 150 萬股普通股,總價值為 2,500 萬美元。

  • During the fourth quarter, our Board approved a new share repurchase authorization for up to $100 million. This program replaces our previous share repurchase program under which $9.4 million remained available for repurchases. The new share repurchase program is affected immediately and does not have an expiration date. Eric spoke earlier to the thinking that went into our updated guidance.

    第四季度,我們的董事會批准了高達 1 億美元的新股回購授權。該計劃取代了我們先前的股票回購計劃,根據該計劃,仍有 940 萬美元可用於回購。新股回購計畫立即生效,且沒有到期日。埃里克早些時候談到了我們更新的指南中的想法。

  • Now let me run you through the numbers. For the full year, we now expect comp store sales growth of approximately 2.4%. We expect comp store sales growth in the fourth quarter to be approximately 2.0%. While October trends were similar to September, our guidance reflects more difficult comparisons in the remaining months of 2024 and our continuing work to sharpen our value proposition.

    現在讓我向您介紹一下這些數字。目前,我們預計全年零售店銷售額將成長約 2.4%。我們預計第四季度比較店銷售成長約為 2.0%。雖然 10 月的趨勢與 9 月相似,但我們的指導反映了 2024 年剩餘幾個月的比較困難以及我們為強化價值主張而持續開展的工作。

  • We now expect to add a total of 66 net new stores this year, up from our previous range of 62 to 64. This includes the 40 acquired United Grocery Outlet stores and 26 net new organic store openings. In total, we now expect fiscal 2024 net sales of slightly above $4.35 billion.

    我們現在預計今年將淨增 66 家新店,高於先前的 62 至 64 家。其中包括收購的 40 家 United Grocery Outlet 商店和 26 家淨新開的有機商店。總的來說,我們現在預計 2024 財年淨銷售額略高於 43.5 億美元。

  • We now expect gross margin of approximately 30.4% for fiscal 2024. We expect gross margin for the fourth quarter of approximately 30.2% and reflecting typical Q3 to Q4 seasonality and investments in increasing our value proposition and our opportunistic assortment to drive sales.

    我們目前預計 2024 財年的毛利率約為 30.4%。我們預計第四季度的毛利率約為 30.2%,反映了第三季至第四季的典型季節性以及在增加我們的價值主張和機會主義品種以推動銷售方面的投資。

  • For the full year, we now expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $237 million to $242 million, which implies fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $57 million to $62 million. Our lowered forecast for adjusted EBITDA reflects the impact of lower comps and gross margins as well as higher SG&A than previously anticipated. For the year, we continue to expect D&A to grow in the mid-20s on a percentage basis, reflecting investments in our systems as well as accelerated new store growth during the year.

    對於全年,我們目前預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 2.37 億美元至 2.42 億美元之間,這意味著第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 5,700 萬美元至 6,200 萬美元。我們下調調整後 EBITDA 的預測反映了比較和毛利率下降以及 SG&A 高於先前預期的影響。今年,我們繼續預計 D&A 將按百分比計算在 20 多歲左右增長,反映了我們對系統的投資以及年內新店成長的加速。

  • We now expect share-based compensation of approximately $22 million. Net interest expense is now anticipated to be approximately $23 million. We continue to expect a normalized tax rate of about 32%.

    我們現在預計股權激勵約為 2200 萬美元。目前預計淨利息支出約 2,300 萬美元。我們繼續預期正常化稅率約為 32%。

  • We now expect average fully diluted shares outstanding for the year of approximately $100.3 million, down from $100.5 million due primarily to lower share count from share repurchases. We continue to expect CapEx, net of tenant allowances of approximately $200 million. We now expect full-year adjusted EPS of $0.77 to $0.80 per fully diluted share.

    我們目前預計今年完全攤薄後的平均已發行股票約為 1.003 億美元,低於 1.005 億美元,主要是由於股票回購帶來的股票數量減少。我們繼續預期扣除租戶津貼後的資本支出約為 2 億美元。我們目前預計全年調整後每股完全稀釋每股收益為 0.77 美元至 0.80 美元。

  • Finally, let me make a few comments about 2025. We will lay out our formalized guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call as we have typically done in years past. Broadly speaking, at this point, we believe the full year of fiscal 2025 should be framed around a return to our long-term growth and algorithm targets, which, as a reminder, are comparable store sales growth of 1% to 3%; gross margin of approximately 30.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 6%, building to this full-year number as the year progresses.

    最後,讓我對2025年發表一些評論。我們將像過去幾年的慣例一樣,在第四季的財報電話會議上製定正式的指導方針。從廣義上講,目前,我們認為 2025 財年全年應圍繞我們的長期增長和演算法目標的回歸來製定,提醒一下,這些目標是可比商店銷售額增長 1% 至 3%;毛利率約為 30.5%,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 6%,隨著時間的推移,這一全年數字將不斷增加。

  • For fiscal 2025, we will have increased capital expenditures due to a higher number of organic new store openings and supply chain investments, and as a result, higher depreciation and amortization.

    2025 財年,由於有機新店開張和供應鏈投資數量增加,我們將增加資本支出,導致折舊和攤提增加。

  • We look forward to updating you in more detail regarding 2025 on our year-end earnings call in February. And now I'll pass it back to Eric for closing.

    我們期待在 2 月的年終收益電話會議上向您提供有關 2025 年的更多詳細資訊。現在我將把它傳回給埃里克以結束。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Let me close with this. I'm very confident in our business fundamentals and our ability to realize our long-term growth potential. We are unique specialty discount retailer for a long history of consistent growth. We need some time to get back to basics, focus on execution and a small center prioritize growth initiatives while enabling our passionate, independent operators to serve their communities.

    讓我結束這一點。我對我們的業務基礎和實現長期成長潛力的能力非常有信心。我們是獨特的專業折扣零售商,有著長期持續成長的歷史。我們需要一些時間回歸基礎,專注於執行和一個小中心優先考慮成長計劃,同時使我們充滿熱情的獨立營運商能夠為他們的社區服務。

  • We'd like to now open up the call for your question. Operator?

    我們現在想打開電話詢問您的問題。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Krisztina Katai, Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員指示)Krisztina Katai,德意志銀行。

  • Krisztina Katai - Analyst

    Krisztina Katai - Analyst

  • Welcome back, Eric. I wanted to start with sales. You take your comp was largely in line, September was solid, but you took your 4Q outlook down like some of that is conservatism considering the October commentary.

    歡迎回來,埃里克。我想從銷售開始。你認為你的業績基本上符合預期,9 月表現穩定,但考慮到 10 月的評論,你降低了第 4 季的前景,其中有些是保守主義。

  • But Eric, you talked about the need to execute better. So what are some of your first priorities to get execution on new control pressure are you still seeing from the system integration issues at this point? And how should we think about a realistic timeline for that to be fully behind us?

    但是埃里克,你談到了需要更好地執行。那麼,您目前從系統整合問題中仍然看到的新控制壓力的首要任務是什麼?我們應該如何考慮一個現實的時間表來完全支持我們?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • It's a heck of a question, Krisztina. Let me take the first part of that, and then Lindsay can jump in.

    這是一個很大的問題,克里斯蒂娜。讓我先講第一部分,然後 Lindsay 可以介入。

  • So I said doubling down on value, when the customer needs us most, we need to be there for them. So we made a ton of progress, but we're not quite done. So we're going to continue to pull the lever on price, particularly with opportunistic to make sure the WOW! is there.

    所以我說要加倍重視價值,當客戶最需要我們的時候,我們需要為他們服務。我們取得了很大進展,但還沒有完全完成。因此,我們將繼續拉動價格槓桿,特別是透過機會主義來確保哇!有沒有。

  • We are going to support and make sure that the relationship with our IOs is intact. We just need to provide them with tools so they can run their business a little bit more efficiently. I want to put the systems transition work in the rearview mirror.

    我們將提供支援並確保與我們的國際組織的關係完好無損。我們只需要為他們提供工具,以便他們能夠更有效地開展業務。我想把系統過渡工作放在後視鏡中。

  • Frankly, I don't want to talk about this next year. I want to hear about all the great things it's doing for us, not all the things that we can't do because of the system. So that's on the list.

    坦白說,我明年不想談論這個。我想聽聽它為我們所做的所有偉大的事情,而不是所有因為該系統而我們無法做的事情。這就是清單上的內容。

  • And then I'd say really looking closely at all the priorities that we have on our list and making sure that we narrow that down. I know we win when we're focused on a short list of things that matter the most. And so that's what we're going to do over the coming weeks to make sure that list is right on.

    然後我想說的是,要仔細研究我們清單上的所有優先事項,並確保縮小範圍。我知道,當我們專注於一小部分最重要的事情時,我們就會獲勝。這就是我們在未來幾週內要做的事情,以確保該清單正確無誤。

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Krisztina, this is one thing I can follow up a bit. So yes, so our Q4 guide, so we feel good about the trends we saw in September and October. October trends were similar to September, but they did reflect a slight slowdown on a two-year basis. So also, at the same time, we're facing difficult comparisons as we progress through the fourth quarter.

    克里斯蒂娜,這是我可以跟進的一件事。是的,我們的第四季度指南,所以我們對 9 月和 10 月看到的趨勢感到滿意。10 月的趨勢與 9 月相似,但確實反映出兩年來略有放緩。同時,隨著第四季的進展,我們也面臨著艱難的比較。

  • So with all that said, we took a step back and we just really felt it was prudent to be a bit more cautious in our outlook for the full year in the fourth quarter, and we revised our guidance accordingly. So we're still working to get our value prop where we want it. And as we expect price competition, coupled with the holidays and whatnot, that's everything that went into the Q4 guide for comp.

    話雖如此,我們後退了一步,我們真的覺得對第四季度全年的前景更加謹慎是謹慎的做法,因此我們相應地修改了我們的指導。因此,我們仍在努力實現我們想要的價值支撐。正如我們預期的價格競爭,再加上假期等,這就是第四季度比較指南中的所有內容。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robbie Ohmes, Bank of America.

    羅比·歐姆斯,美國銀行。

  • Robert Ohmes - Analyst

    Robert Ohmes - Analyst

  • Eric, nice to talk to you again. My question is, I was hoping we could just get more color on RJ's departure and also what type of CEO you're looking to replace them with? And maybe related to that, just to clarify, the systems, where is the systems disruption right now? Is it behind you? Or is there still risk to the first half of next year related to that?

    艾瑞克,很高興再次與你交談。我的問題是,我希望我們能夠對 RJ 的離職有更多了解,以及您希望用什麼類型的執行長來取代他們?也許與此相關,只是為了澄清系統,系統現在中斷在哪裡?是在你身後嗎?或者明年上半年仍然存在與此相關的風險?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Hey, Robbie, good to talk to you again. So let me start first with the CEO transition. You all know this last year has been really difficult. It's been an operational challenge year from the systems transition.

    是的。嘿,羅比,很高興再次與你交談。讓我先從執行長的過渡開始。大家都知道去年真的很難。今年是系統轉型以來面臨營運挑戰的一年。

  • We have not executed like we want, like our expectations or like our history. And that's been super challenging. I'd say because of the relationship that we've all enjoyed working with RJ for many, many years, we were patient. We felt like that was the right thing to do, to be patient. But I can tell you the same way that you all might have been feeling about our performance, we were feeling that internally as well.

    我們沒有按照我們想要的、我們的期望或我們的歷史來執行。這非常具有挑戰性。我想說,由於多年來我們都很享受與 RJ 的合作,所以我們很有耐心。我們覺得這是正確的做法,要有耐心。但我可以告訴你們,就像你們所有人對我們的表現可能有的感覺一樣,我們內部也有這種感覺。

  • So we finally got to a point after the last board meeting where we sat down, we had a frank conversation, and we had an agreement to move forward. So I really want to make sure everyone knows that we didn't have any major disagreement. There's no new finding that you guys will learn about later. There's no other shooter drop.

    因此,在上次董事會會議結束後,我們終於達成了共識,我們坐下來進行了坦誠的交談,並達成了繼續前進的協議。所以我真的想確保每個人都知道我們沒有任何重大分歧。沒有什麼新發現你們以後會了解。沒有其他射手掉落。

  • This was just a little bit of inconvenient timing and sort of a function of how things played out, nothing more. The question on systems, yes, kind of where are we today? I'll repeat a little bit of what I've said. I'm still digging into it, still getting up to speed. Let me say that the system is fully functional.

    這只是時間上有點不方便,也是事情發展的函數,僅此而已。關於系統的問題,是的,我們今天在哪裡?我將重複我說過的話。我仍在深入研究,仍在加快步伐。我想說的是,該系統功能齊全。

  • We're still working on enhancements. We're still working on efficiency, which our words I'd just say it's not quite working to the speed that we expect. I would say full stabilization has been a bigger undertaking than we originally anticipated. Internally, that just translates -- it's been more resources. It's taken more time.

    我們仍在努力增強功能。我們仍在提高效率,但我想說的是,它並沒有完全達到我們預期的速度。我想說,全面穩定是一項比我們最初預期的更大的任務。在內部,這只是翻譯——更多的資源。花了更多的時間。

  • But I would say that we're making a lot of progress. I'll give you a couple of examples of things that I'm looking for that may address sort of your timing. The biggest thing to me is for the operators is having their real-time order guide and their new arrival or to guide back. Those sound like very tactical things. But as a merchant being able to order off of our system and be able to look at a live inventory, be able to tap into the system and pick what you want your store that's kind of nirvana in an opportunistic model.

    但我想說我們正在取得很大進展。我將為您提供幾個我正在尋找的範例,這些範例可能會解決您的時間安排問題。對我來說最重要的是,對於運營商來說,他們擁有即時訂單指南以及新貨到達或返回的指南。這些聽起來像是非常戰術性的事情。但作為一個能夠從我們的系統下訂單並能夠查看即時庫存的商家,能夠利用系統並在商店中挑選你想要的東西,這在機會主義模式中是一種涅槃。

  • And so we have not had that tool. It's not back yet, and we get that back. I think we've sort of rounded towards home and the system will be finished. It's working. The tool is working, but it's not doing for us what we needed to do completely.

    所以我們還沒有這個工具。它還沒有回來,我們把它拿回來。我認為我們已經回到家了,系統將會完成。它正在發揮作用。該工具正在工作,但它並沒有完全為我們做我們需要做的事情。

  • So really look forward to getting it, again, as I said, sort of in the rearview mirror.

    因此,正如我所說,我真的很期待再次看到它,有點像在後視鏡中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Bonadio, Wells Fargo.

    安東尼·博納迪奧,富國銀行。

  • Anthony Bonadio - Analyst

    Anthony Bonadio - Analyst

  • So just wanted to dig in a little bit on margins. Taking a step back and thinking about your EBITDA margin, we've now seen some pretty sizable swing since the pandemic began. That was obviously exacerbated even more recently with the systems issues and now some more uncertainty as you rework guidance again.

    所以只是想在利潤上挖掘一點。退後一步,想想您的 EBITDA 利潤率,自大流行開始以來,我們現在看到了一些相當大的波動。最近由於系統問題,這種情況明顯加劇,現在當您再次修改指南時,不確定性更大。

  • So I guess, maybe just at a high level, can you talk about how we should think about the appropriate margin profile for the business over a longer timeframe? And then just as a follow-up, you mentioned pulling back from some strategic priorities to focus on less. Can you just talk about specifically what items you're referring to there?

    所以我想,也許只是在較高的層面上,您能否談談我們應該如何考慮較長時間內業務的適當利潤狀況?然後,作為後續行動,您提到從一些戰略優先事項中撤出,以減少關注。能具體談談您指的是哪些項目嗎?

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. Anthony, this is Lindsay. I can take the first part of our margin. So our long-term algorithm for margin since we started talking with you all has been 30.5%. And we still believe that's a great place for us to be.

    是的。安東尼,這是林賽。我可以拿走我們保證金的第一部分。因此,自從我們開始與大家交談以來,我們的長期保證金演算法一直是 30.5%。我們仍然相信這對我們來說是一個偉大的地方。

  • We love reinvesting the dollars that we have back in the business, and that continues to be a priority. So that is our long-term algo that we still have. That's why we wanted to -- I wanted to emphasize it in the call as well just because that's what we want to orient everyone to. Margins definitely fluctuate here at GO based on assortment and a variety of our matters. Definitely admit, it's been rocky few quarters with things going up and down.

    我們喜歡將我們所擁有的資金重新投資到業務中,這仍然是我們的首要任務。這就是我們仍然擁有的長期演算法。這就是為什麼我們想要——我也想在電話中強調這一點,因為這就是我們想要引導每個人的方向。GO 的利潤肯定會根據產品種類和我們的各種事務而波動。絕對要承認,這幾季的情況很不穩定,事情有起有落。

  • Just a reminder, last year, we saw really high margin. assortment was great at that time. We are delivering great value as well to a customer. So it really just changes quarter-to-quarter. So just long term, 30.5% is what we want to orient you into. And for 2025 is where you can think of that, and then I'll hand it over to Eric.

    只是提醒一下,去年我們看到了非常高的利潤率。那時的品種很棒。我們也為客戶提供巨大的價值。所以它實際上只是每個季度都在變化。因此,從長遠來看,我們希望您的目標是 30.5%。2025 年你可以想到這一點,然後我會交給 Eric。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Hey, Anthony. Yeah, day five, not quite ready to tell you what we're taking off the list or adding to the list or putting higher on the list. We'll be doing that work in the coming weeks. It's really clear to me being back a short time that we're trying to do too much, and we're not doing it all while.

    是的。嘿,安東尼。是的,第五天,還沒準備好告訴你我們要從清單中刪除什麼、加入清單或將清單上的內容放在更高的位置。我們將在未來幾週內完成這項工作。回來不久,我很清楚我們試圖做的事情太多了,而且我們並沒有一直這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Heinbockel, Guggenheim Partners.

    約翰·海因博克爾,古根漢合夥人。

  • John Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Heinbockel - Analyst

  • Two quick things. One, I know you're talking about a 6% EBITDA margin next year because you want to reinvest back into price and value. I mean, Eric, do you think that are you being conservative with a low single-digit comp, particularly in this macro right?

    兩件快事。第一,我知道您正在談論明年 6% 的 EBITDA 利潤率,因為您想重新投資於價格和價值。我的意思是,埃里克,你認為你對低個位數的比較持保守態度嗎,尤其是在這個宏觀方面,對吧?

  • And then secondly, what are you looking for in a new CEO characteristic-wise because you've got a very unique culture and business model. And I assume that you are not a candidate for the job permanently.

    其次,您在新任執行長身上尋找什麼特質,因為您擁有非常獨特的文化和商業模式。我認為你不是該職位的永久候選人。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Let me take the first part of that. John, good to catch up with you. Yeah, I've been pretty clear we are going to search for a not in a hurry. I'm here and I'm prepared to say as long as it takes.

    是的。讓我來談談第一部分。約翰,很高興見到你。是的,我已經很清楚我們要尋找一個不急的人。我在這裡,只要需要,我就準備好說出來。

  • This is a unique place. You've known it for a long, long time. We've got a really good search firm.

    這是一個獨特的地方。你已經知道它很久很久了。我們有一家非常好的獵人頭公司。

  • She has been very successful in other placements. She helped out President and CEO over at Sprouts, and she did some work with Gap and Athleta and some others. So we feel very confident in the caliber that we're working with.

    她在其他職位上也取得了非常成功的成績。她幫助 Sprouts 的總裁兼首席執行官,並與 Gap 和 Athleta 以及其他一些公司合作。所以我們對我們正在使用的能力非常有信心。

  • Our goal is to land a terrific new leader, full stop. If I had to go down my list of things I'm looking for some public company experience, obviously, important proven track record, someone who's scaled our retail model, which is certainly what we're doing and what is in front of us, some retail, some fresh -- and then someone that's really excited about this model.

    我們的目標是找到一位出色的新領導者,句點。如果我必須列出我的清單,我正在尋找一些上市公司的經驗,顯然,重要的經過驗證的記錄,擴展我們零售模式的人,這肯定是我們正在做的事情,也是我們面前的事情,一些是零售的,有些是新鮮的——然後是對這種模式真正感興趣的人。

  • This is not for everyone. It's not conventional retail. It's very unique. It's very differentiated.

    這並不適合所有人。這不是傳統的零售。這是非常獨特的。這是非常有差異化的。

  • So we need to find someone that looks at it and says, I get it, and I see it and share that vision. So a lot of that is around culture that you mentioned. A lot of that is about we do things a little bit differently. But those are sort of the top 4 or 5 qualities that we're looking for.

    因此,我們需要找到一個人,他會看著它並說,我明白了,我看到了它並分享了這個願景。所以很多事情都圍繞著你提到的文化。這很大程度是因為我們做事的方式有點不同。但這些是我們正在尋找的前 4 或 5 種品質。

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • This is Lindsay. So I'll just chat with you a little about your question on guidance. And so yes, so the 1% to 3% comp percentage is what we're targeting, and what we continue to target. I think what your question was, was just the adjusted EBITDA margins of 6%.

    這是林賽。所以我就跟你聊聊你關於指導的問題。是的,1% 到 3% 的補償百分比是我們的目標,也是我們繼續的目標。我想你的問題只是調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 6%。

  • So if you look at our historical levels, the approximate 6% is really where we've landed on average over the last five years or so. Of course, down quarter to quarter a bit. But we really feel like that's a good place for us to be.

    因此,如果你看看我們的歷史水平,你會發現大約 6% 確實是我們在過去五年左右的平均水平。當然,逐季下降一點。但我們真的覺得那對我們來說是一個好地方。

  • And what we continue to shoot for definitely still have some systems cost to work through, though, as Eric mentioned, and taking a little longer to stabilize, and we want to get it right, and we want to get the tool working as well as possible. It's fully functional and everything. We're just doing a lot of finessing and enhancements and whatnot. But that said, as you think about 2025, that long-term algorithm of the 6% is what we shoot for, but kind of building towards that, if you will, throughout the year.

    不過,正如艾瑞克所提到的,我們繼續努力的目標肯定仍然有一些系統成本需要解決,並且需要更長的時間才能穩定下來,我們希望把它做好,我們希望讓該工具正常工作可能的。它功能齊全,一切應有盡有。我們只是做了很多改進和增強等等。但話雖如此,當你想到 2025 年時,6% 的長期演算法是我們的目標,但如果你願意的話,我們會在全年朝著這個目標努力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Carden, UBS.

    馬克卡登,瑞銀集團。

  • Mark Carden - Analyst

    Mark Carden - Analyst

  • Welcome back, Eric. So on the UTL acquisition, how is it going relative to your expectations? How much has it been impacted by some of your recent execution challenges? And then with the leadership changes, are you thinking any differently about timing for moving these stores over to independent operators?

    歡迎回來,埃里克。那麼關於UTL的收購,相對於您的預期進展如何?您最近的一些執行挑戰對它的影響有多大?隨著領導階層的變動,您對於將這些商店移交給獨立經營者的時機是否有不同的看法?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Mark, nice to hear your voice. Yes, it's going -- UGO is pretty new. It's going right as we thought. We did not have a very aggressive transition schedule. In fact, we did not plan to convert those stores until much later, actually after 2025.

    是的。馬克,很高興聽到你的聲音。是的,它正在發生——UGO 是相當新的。事情正如我們所想的那樣進行。我們沒有非常積極的過渡時間表。事實上,我們直到很晚之後才計劃改造這些商店,實際上是在 2025 年之後。

  • And initially, the biggest opportunity we see is to get them into the fold of reporting. Second is to make sure that the products that we have that they don't have, they can have. They have quite a few items, less items scanning to their stores than we do. So we see some immediate sales opportunities to infuse them with some of the products we have.

    最初,我們看到的最大機會是讓他們參與報道。其次是確保我們擁有而他們沒有的產品他們也能擁有。他們有相當多的商品,但掃描到他們商店的商品比我們少。因此,我們看到了一些直接的銷售機會,可以將它們與我們擁有的一些產品結合起來。

  • We have tried a few one or two refreshes of their stores. So coming in with some of the things we've learned from data that helps sell product better inside the store from a merchandising standpoint, very good read back on those initials. So we'll do some of that next year, call it, 5, 6, 7, 10 stores.

    我們嘗試過對他們的商店進行一兩次更新。因此,從銷售的角度來看,我們從數據中學到了一些有助於在商店內更好地銷售產品的知識,非常好的回顧這些縮寫。所以我們明年會做一些,稱之為 5、6、7、10 家商店。

  • And then ultimately, conversion to IO and conversion over to GO brand will come later, not in a hurry to do it. We want to make sure that we hit some of those other initiatives first, and then we can transition them over. We've done that before.

    最終,向 IO 的轉換和向 GO 品牌的轉換將在稍後進行,而不是急於進行。我們希望確保首先實現其中一些其他舉措,然後我們可以將它們過渡。我們以前就這麼做過。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Corey Tarlowe, Jefferies.

    科里·塔洛,杰弗里斯。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Analyst

  • I was wondering about unit growth. How do you think about the complexion of unit growth going forward, whether it's via acquisition or organic growth? And what's the right rate for the business? I believe you previously targeted 10% in the past. But just curious, Eric, if there's any change in thinking there.

    我想知道單位成長的情況。您如何看待未來單位成長的情況,無論是透過收購還是有機成長?對企業來說,合適的利率是多少?我相信您過去的目標是 10%。但只是好奇,艾瑞克,想法是否有任何改變。

  • And then just on the investments that you've made in the value proposition, and I think that you're planning to continue to make, is there any way to put into context the magnitude of the investments that you're making now versus in the past and what the impact could be.

    然後,就您在價值主張中所做的投資,以及我認為您計劃繼續進行的投資而言,是否有任何方法可以將您現在所做的投資規模與過去的投資規模結合起來?的影響。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Corey, let me take the second question first. I'd say the value prop we are making investments. I would not say they are from my estimation, any different than what we've had to do two, three, four times, I can recall and recount we get slightly off every once in a while, and we're getting back. So we told you how we measure and let me just walk through those measurements again, the 40% and the 20% basket.

    是的。科里,我先回答第二個問題。我想說的是我們正在投資的價值支柱。我不會說它們是我的估計,與我們必須做的兩次,三次,四次有任何不同,我可以回憶並回顧我們每隔一段時間就會稍微偏離,然後我們就會回來。我們已經告訴您我們如何衡量,讓我再次回顧這些衡量結果,即 40% 和 20% 的籃子。

  • So 40% savings over conventional check savings over discount check, take a basket of 100 commodities. These are the frequently bought items. They need to be priced at parity versus discount check. The last one that's not quite a check, that we're working on is the excitement drivers, right?

    因此,購買一籃 100 種商品,比傳統支票節省 40%,比折扣支票節省 40%。這些都是經常購買的物品。它們需要以平價與折扣支票定價。我們正在研究的最後一個不完全是檢查的項目是興奮驅動因素,對嗎?

  • Our operators will say, yes, the order guide looks great, but there's not enough excitement driver. So we need to inflect on that. I would not say that the margin we have to put into that is extreme, but we don't know we haven't done that work yet. So we want to make sure we have plenty to invest if we need to and make sure that when we get there, we know we're there and we've got it to keep.

    我們的操作員會說,是的,訂單指南看起來很棒,但沒有足夠的興奮點。所以我們需要對此進行調整。我不會說我們必須投入的利潤是極端的,但我們不知道我們還沒有完成這項工作。因此,我們希望確保在需要時有足夠的投資,並確保當我們到達那裡時,我們知道我們在那裡並且我們有能力保留它。

  • So second is on unit growth. Yeah, it's a good question. I would say that traditionally, our acquisition ideas have been very opportunistic where we find someone kind of fits into the culture and the geography, we might jump into that. I wouldn't say look for a whole bunch of that in the future.

    其次是單位成長。是的,這是一個好問題。我想說,傳統上,我們的收購想法非常機會主義,當我們發現某人適合文化和地理時,我們可能會跳進去。我不會說將來要找一大堆這樣的東西。

  • I would say from a new store perspective, the 10% is not at risk. We have the stores. We have the capacity to do the stores. Think back two, three years ago post COVID, a lot of delays, it created havoc with supply chain, all that's behind us. The deal makers have done and the construction team has done an amazing job in the last year or so, setting up 2025 really well.

    我想說,從新店的角度來看,這 10% 沒有風險。我們有商店。我們有能力做專賣店。回想一下兩三年前的新冠疫情之後,出現了許多延誤,對供應鏈造成了嚴重破壞,所有這些都已成為過去。在過去一年左右的時間裡,交易制定者和施工團隊都完成了出色的工作,為 2025 年做好了準備。

  • So I think we mentioned 50 stores or so that are signed ready for 2025. We're actually working on 2026. So no concerns or issues there. And I wouldn't say that we wouldn't do an acquisition, but I wouldn't say we're going to go look for another acquisition.

    所以我認為我們提到了大約 50 家商店已簽約準備在 2025 年開業。我們實際上正在努力爭取 2026 年。所以沒有任何擔憂或問題。我不會說我們不會進行收購,但我不會說我們會去尋找另一次收購。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Oliver Chen, TD Cowen.

    奧利佛·陳,TD·考恩。

  • Oliver Chen - Analyst

    Oliver Chen - Analyst

  • Eric and Lindsay, as you think about the challenges and opportunities ahead, how would you rank them, Eric? What are the key priorities in terms of the bigger challenges that you see? Also, any context on thinking nearer term versus medium term in terms of some of the issues and interrelated, you have great relationships with independent operators. Just wondering your thoughts on what it will take to continue to foster those as well.

    埃里克和林賽,當您思考未來的挑戰和機會時,您會如何排列它們,埃里克?就您所看到的更大挑戰而言,首要任務是什麼?此外,在考慮某些問題和相關問題的近期與中期的任何背景下,您都與獨立運營商建立了良好的關係。只是想知道您對繼續培育這些需要採取什麼措施的想法。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Oliver, thanks for the questions. Look, I'd say, first on my list and in my mind, and I'd say on the minds of everyone here is let's make sure that we go deep enough on value, and we get that momentum back. A bit like a flywheel once you start rolling it's really easy to keep rolling.

    奧利佛,謝謝你的提問。聽著,我想說,首先在我的清單上,在我的腦海裡,我想說的是,在座的每個人的腦海裡,讓我們確保我們在價值方面走得足夠深入,然後我們就能恢復這種勢頭。有點像飛輪,一旦開始滾動,就很容易繼續滾動。

  • I think we did ourselves some damage, frankly, Q1 through early Q3 and pricing for margin versus pricing for value, and we're paying the price of that right now. We are getting it back, and we're feeling good about it.

    坦白說,我認為我們對自己造成了一些損害,從第一季到第三季初,以及利潤定價與價值定價,我們現在正在為此付出代價。我們正在收回它,我們對此感覺良好。

  • There's a lot of energy, and there's a lot of momentum. I think we've got one of the best offerings for Thanksgiving meal, and our product offering in an opportunistic world can sometimes be challenging, but we are really well set up for that. So I feel good about it, and we're going to focus on that. And then as we're successful, we're going to start to lay out some of the other initiatives.

    有很大的能量,有很大的動力。我認為我們已經為感恩節大餐提供了最好的產品之一,而我們在機會主義世界中提供的產品有時可能具有挑戰性,但我們確實為此做好了準備。所以我對此感覺很好,我們將重點關注這一點。當我們取得成功時,我們將開始製定一些其他措施。

  • Relative to IOs, look, these guys have had a tough, tough year. It has been flying a little bit blind. Things not working, things coming back online, not being fast or quick redundant efforts and activities in stores, inefficiencies, frustration. We heard it all. We were with the operators in Dallas at our annual meeting for four or five days -- three or four days in September. And I would say, read the mood as very positive.

    相對於 IO,你看,這些人度過了非常非常艱難的一年。它飛得有點盲目了。事情不起作用,事情重新上線,商店裡的多餘努力和活動不快或不快,效率低下,令人沮喪。我們都聽到了。我們在達拉斯與營運商一起參加年會四、五天——九月的三、四天。我想說的是,這種情緒非常正面。

  • They are a graceful group of people. They give us a lot of room to try things and sometimes make mistakes, and this has been one of our biggest. And so they're supportive. As long as we communicate with them and as long as we tell them the truth and share with them what the timing is and what the fix is, which is what we're doing.

    他們是一群優雅的人。他們給了我們很大的空間去嘗試,有時也會犯錯,這是我們最大的空間之一。所以他們很支持。只要我們與他們溝通,只要我們告訴他們真相並與他們分享時機和解決方案,這就是我們正在做的事情。

  • So I'll leave Thursday. We'll go Thursday, Friday, Saturday. We'll see about 70 operators. We'll do it again next Thursday, Friday, Saturday, we'll see another 70 or so. And then Drew and I will take a trip out to the east and see some more operators around Thanksgiving time.

    所以我周四就要離開。我們週四、週五、週六去。我們將看到大約 70 名操作員。下週四、週五、週六我們會再做一次,我們會看到另外 70 個左右。然後德魯和我將在感恩節前後去東部旅行,拜訪更多的運營商。

  • So they need to know that we care. They need to know that we're listening. They need to know that we're working hard and address their issues. And they are patient and they're forgiving. And we're super lucky to have that relationship.

    所以他們需要知道我們關心他們。他們需要知道我們正在傾聽。他們需要知道我們正在努力工作並解決他們的問題。他們很有耐心,而且很寬容。我們非常幸運能夠擁有這段關係。

  • But you can tell by the timing of probably my seventh or eighth day back, I'll be out with a bunch of operators taking questions like this and sharing with them kind of what we're doing. So super important to us, and we take that incredibly seriously.

    但你可以從我回來的第七天或第八天的時間看出,我將和一群操作員一起回答這樣的問題,並與他們分享我們正在做的事情。對我們來說非常重要,我們非常重視這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group.

    喬·費爾德曼,特爾西諮詢小組。

  • Joseph Feldman - Analyst

    Joseph Feldman - Analyst

  • Eric, I wanted to just ask you, when you -- you've talked about execution, and I apologize if I missed it, but what are some of the things that you'd like to execute better? And like where are the maybe a project or two that you think could get a little delayed? If you could share any color on that initially.

    艾瑞克,我想問你,當你談到執行時,如果我錯過了,我很抱歉,但是你希望更好地執行哪些事情?就像您認為可能會有點延遲的一兩個項目在哪裡?如果您最初可以分享任何顏色。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Look, let me just talk about all the things that we're trying to do, make an acquisition wrestled the project we call SAP, launch private label, run an app and some new marketing tools, manage workforce that's not always here all the time. Just the challenges of this business when tools are not working for you, has been a little bit more difficult than we ever thought and would ever want.

    是的。聽著,讓我談談我們正在嘗試做的所有事情,收購我們稱之為 SAP 的項目,推出自有品牌,運行應用程式和一些新的行銷工具,管理並不總是在這裡的員工隊伍。當工具無法為您工作時,這項業務所面臨的挑戰比我們想像和想要的要困難一些。

  • So again, early on, we're going to lay up all of the initiatives with the team and decide what stays, what delays, what goes. And I wouldn't say any of the things that I've mentioned are off the list, but my example of UGO, we don't need to go do a whole bunch of work on UGO right now because they're running, they're operating.

    因此,在早期,我們將與團隊一起制定所有計劃,並決定哪些保留、哪些延遲、哪些取消。我不會說我提到的任何事情都不在列表中,但以我的 UGO 為例,我們現在不需要在 UGO 上做一大堆工作,因為它們正在運行,它們正在運行。

  • We get them some product. They're going to be fine. We do a little bit of reinvestment back in the store, they're going to be fine.

    我們給他們一些產品。他們會沒事的。我們對商店進行了一些再投資,他們會沒事的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

    利亞·喬丹,高盛。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • So I understand your system visibility isn't fully back to where you want it, but it has improved over the last year. So I'm just curious why your 4Q guide suggests we aren't really getting any gross margin lift from lapping that initial disruption last year. Just curious where that all went.

    因此,我了解您的系統可見度並未完全回到您想要的位置,但它比去年有所改善。所以我只是好奇為什麼你們的第四季指南表明我們並沒有從去年最初的中斷中真正獲得任何毛利率提升。只是好奇這一切都去了哪裡。

  • Is it all competitive pressures? And I guess I'm also curious why you aren't getting the benefit from some closeout competitors going away as well?

    都是競爭壓力嗎?我想我也很好奇為什麼你沒有從一些清倉競爭對手的消失中獲益?

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Leah, this is Lindsay. I can speak to that. So yeah, so just address just a couple of pieces, comp and margin as well. So we're still facing some issues with the system, as we talked about, data visibility, you're right, we brought it back in a great way earlier in the year.

    利亞,這是林賽。我可以談談。是的,所以只需解決幾個問題,即補償和利潤。因此,我們仍然面臨系統的一些問題,正如我們所討論的,數據可見性,你是對的,我們在今年早些時候以一種很好的方式將其帶回來。

  • What Eric mentioned though as well is that while we've made a lot of progress and the system is functional and operating, it's taking the teams and the operators a lot longer to do some of the tasks they did before. And frankly, it's just very inefficient. And so as you think about how nimble we are, and how we love to be, we've been really hampered by these tools that we're trying to improve.

    艾瑞克也提到,雖然我們已經取得了很大進展,而且系統已經正常運行,但團隊和操作員需要花費更長的時間才能完成他們之前完成的一些任務。坦白說,這是非常低效的。因此,當你想到我們是多麼靈活,以及我們多麼喜歡成為這樣的人時,我們確實受到了我們試圖改進的這些工具的阻礙。

  • So we're continuing to do that. So giving you that flavor kind of leads into comp. And so there's a couple of reasons on comp. So even though we saw recent trends, we're facing some difficult comparisons for Q4 we want to be prudent as well.

    所以我們將繼續這樣做。所以給你那種味道會導致你進入比較。因此,關於比較有幾個原因。因此,儘管我們看到了最近的趨勢,但我們仍面臨著與第四季的一些困難比較,我們也希望保持謹慎。

  • We really hope our guide is conservative. It proves to be conservative. But just given all the reasons we've laid out, we really wanted to make sure that we were laying out the comp that we feel is achievable. And then with gross margin, same thing there as well.

    我們真的希望我們的指南是保守的。事實證明這是保守的。但考慮到我們列出的所有原因,我們確實想確保我們所製定的補償是我們認為可以實現的。毛利率也是如此。

  • So stubbed our toe a bit with earlier in the year was trying to get some margin dollars, and we lost some value. And that really just plays into coming out of that in Q3, feeling like we still have a bit of a drag with some of the system inefficiencies, nothing material in Q3 or Q4, but there's just kind a little bit everywhere that just are a drag on margin.

    因此,今年早些時候,我們試圖獲得一些保證金,但結果卻讓我們損失了一些價值。這確實會影響到第三季的情況,感覺我們仍然受到一些系統效率低下的拖累,第三季或第四季沒有任何實質內容,但到處都有一點拖累在保證金上。

  • And so what I would say is we're not seeing anything like we saw back in the early days with the adverse material impacts that we've walked you all through from Q3 of last year through Q2 of this year. But we just still have some value to work through for our customers and some margin improvement.

    因此,我想說的是,我們沒有看到像早期那樣的不利物質影響,我們從去年第三季到今年第二季已經向您介紹了這一點。但我們仍然可以為客戶提供一些價值,並提高利潤率。

  • So getting back to your question, did we get it all back or not? I think that we're in a much better position than last year, but we're not fully back. So again, thinking about all that and then also layering into conservatism is really where we're laying out our guidance. And like I said, we hope it's really conservative, but that's where we're at right now.

    回到你的問題,我們是否全部恢復了?我認為我們的處境比去年好得多,但我們還沒有完全恢復。再說一遍,考慮所有這些,然後再分層到保守主義,這確實是我們制定指導方針的地方。就像我說的,我們希望它真的很保守,但這就是我們現在的處境。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Leah, I'll jump on the second part of your question. We are getting a pretty good benefit from the 99 and big announcements that's been flowing through sort of since last year and through this year. I'd say our op buying is really strong right now, definitely picking up. And both from what we're buying penetration of what we're shipping to the stores, the increase in margin. So that's all, I would say, in the good column.

    利亞,我將直接回答你問題的第二部分。我們從 99 年和今年以來不斷發布的重大公告中獲得了相當大的好處。我想說我們的操作購買現在非常強勁,而且肯定會增加。從我們購買的商品到我們運送到商店的商品的滲透率來看,利潤率的增加。我想說,這就是好專欄的全部。

  • We need to make sure that the value, and we measure value in lots of different ways, we've just discussed a few with you, we need to make sure that people are really taking notice of those best deals out in the store. So that's where it heads down on.

    我們需要確保價值,我們用很多不同的方式衡量價值,我們剛剛與您討論了一些,我們需要確保人們真正注意到商店裡的那些最優惠的價格。這就是它的發展方向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Baker, D.A. Davidson.

    麥可貝克,D.A.戴維森。

  • Michael Baker - Analyst

    Michael Baker - Analyst

  • Okay. My one question will be on the buying environment, if I could. So relative to the peak in 2023, which I think margins peaked at about 31.3%. Now you're targeting 30.5%, which is your long-term plan. Is it that you're reinvesting more back?

    好的。如果可以的話,我的一個問題是關於購買環境。因此,相對於 2023 年的峰值,我認為利潤率峰值約為 31.3%。現在您的目標是 30.5%,這是您的長期計劃。是不是你要再投資更多?

  • Or is it that, that buying environment post COVID, when there's so much supply chain disruption was just so strong. That it's unlikely to repeat again. I get that there's always closeouts and you never run out of products, but it was just probably -- is it fair to say it was just as good as it's going to get post-COVID because of all that supply chain disruption?

    或者說,新冠疫情後的購買環境,供應鏈中斷如此嚴重。這種情況不太可能再次重演。我知道總是有停貨的情況,而且你永遠不會用完產品,但這只是可能——可以公平地說,由於供應鏈中斷,它和新冠疫情後的情況一樣好嗎?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah, Michael. Let me just walk you back a little bit on history and talk a little bit about buying margin. So through, call it, 20, 25 years of paying attention here, we've operated within a very narrow band. Some can't believe how narrow sort of, call it, 30% to 31% and delivered a 5% comp on average and positive comps for 20 of the last 21 years. That's been delivered while we've introduced massive changes in the business.

    是的,邁克爾。讓我帶您回顧一下歷史並談談購買保證金。因此,經過 20 年、25 年的關注,我們一直在一個非常狹窄的範圍內運作。有些人不敢相信這種狹窄的範圍,可以稱之為 30% 到 31%,並且在過去 21 年中有 20 年提供了平均 5% 的補償和積極的補償。這是在我們對業務進行巨大變革的同時實現的。

  • Those changes are things like MTO or more low-margin fresh product or the acceleration of produce or meat introduction of new categories. And I'd say, while we've taken lots of lots of intrusion from market competitors. So this model, for those of you who can't quite get your heads around it or appreciate it, it's very, very different.

    這些變化包括 MTO 或更低利潤的新鮮產品或加速農產品或肉類新類別的推出。我想說的是,雖然我們已經受到了市場競爭對手的大量入侵。所以這個模型,對於那些不太理解它或欣賞它的人來說,它是非常非常不同的。

  • We have the ability to price something this week that we'll sell next week, and that's half of our assortment. So we can pay attention and watch really closely. And so I would never say that we'll never see these margins again. I would say the contrary, we roll between the band of sort of 30% and 31%, maybe call it 30% and 31.5% and have gotten very, very comfortable being in that band. And that's with anything that's happened to this market.

    我們有能力在本週對下週將出售的商品進行定價,這佔了我們品種的一半。所以我們可以非常密切地關注和觀察。所以我永遠不會說我們再也看不到這些利潤了。我想說的是,相反,我們在 30% 和 31% 的區間之間滾動,也許可以稱之為 30% 和 31.5%,並且在這個區間中感到非常非常舒適。這個市場發生的任何事情都是如此。

  • Right now, product is healthy. When you see more and more opportunistic coming in, you should think margins are going to be better unless we choose to invest those, which is what we're doing right now to make sure that we've got the customers. So that's a little bit of how it works, and how it has worked for a long time.

    目前,產品是健康的。當你看到越來越多的機會主義者進來時,你應該認為利潤率會更好,除非我們選擇投資這些,這就是我們現在正在做的事情,以確保我們擁有客戶。這就是它的一些運作方式,以及它長期以來的運作方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

    西蒙古特曼,摩根士丹利。

  • Simeon Gutman - Analyst

    Simeon Gutman - Analyst

  • Eric, this is definitely beating that horse, I wanted to ask again about the systems issues creating a weaker value proposition. So I get you may not have had visibility on the buy, and that could have affected what you were selling prices were on the shelves. The IOs know where relative value, I would think, sits and certain goods sell at certain prices.

    艾瑞克,這絕對是打敗那匹馬,我想再次詢問有關係統問題的問題,從而創造了較弱的價值主張。所以我知道你可能對購買沒有了解,這可能會影響你在貨架上的售價。我認為,國際組織知道相對價值在哪裡,並且某些商品以特定價格出售。

  • So if you think about that logic, the safeguards not being in place to know that. Like can you talk us through that, how these things weren't caught? And then frankly, how systems issues led to that value just not being there for a certain period of time?

    因此,如果你考慮這個邏輯,你會發現沒有適當的保障措施來了解這一點。你能告訴我們這些事情是如何沒有被抓到的嗎?坦白說,系統問題如何導致該價值在一段時間內不存在?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. No, you got it. We did this to ourselves. I'm going to take ownership for that. We price for margin.

    是的。不,你明白了。我們對自己做了這樣的事。我將為此承擔責任。我們按保證金定價。

  • We did not price for value consistently. Upon reflection and looking back at it, it's pretty easy to call that, right, armchair quarterbacks. However is, there were really good reasons why we did that. We had a pretty scarring first quarter. We thought margin was well within our control.

    我們並沒有始終如一地以價值定價。經過反思和回顧,很容易將其稱為“扶手椅四分衛”。然而,我們這樣做確實有充分的理由。我們的第一季經歷了相當痛苦的時期。我們認為利潤率完全在我們的控制範圍內。

  • And at the same time, people were taking prices down, we took prices up, okay? So we are where we are. You're right about the operators. They have the ability to price things up and down, but they allow us to price call it, 99% of the time. We ask operators to be right on micro market adjustments that they need on a few items.

    同時,人們降低了價格,我們提高了價格,好嗎?所以我們就在現在的位置。你對營運商的看法是對的。他們有能力上下定價,但他們允許我們在 99% 的情況下自行定價。我們要求營運商對一些產品進行正確的微觀市場調整。

  • We don't ask them to be us and try and price. We have a much better ability to see the broader lens of competitiveness and to set the price right. And you got to keep in mind, we share gross profit margins. So operators are focused on margin sometimes to a fault like we are. So that's a bit of the explanation.

    我們不會要求他們成為我們並嘗試定價。我們有更好的能力看到更廣闊的競爭力並制定正確的價格。你必須記住,我們共享毛利率。因此,營運商有時會像我們一樣過度關注利潤。這就是一些解釋。

  • Did systems cause it. It's really the visibility that occurred with the lack of proper systems that caused it. And then our reaction, easy again to weigh in on now, I think, was probably improper.

    是系統造成的嗎?這實際上是由於缺乏適當的系統而導致的可見性。然後我們的反應,現在又很容易權衡,我認為,可能是不恰當的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jacob Aiken-Phillips, Melius Research.

    雅各布·艾肯·菲利普斯,Melius 研究中心。

  • Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Analyst

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Analyst

  • So I'm wondering you said that part of it is the system transition was not being able to like have the visibility or inventory. And then part of it was like some competitive pressures when you took pricing. So can you help us contextualize like what that means for comping over that in 4Q and in 2025? Because I don't know, I would have expected a better 4Q giving you lapping like 200 bps from last year.

    所以我想知道你說部分原因是系統過渡無法獲得可見性或庫存。其中一部分就像是定價時的一些競爭壓力。那麼您能否幫助我們了解這對第四季和 2025 年的比較意味著什麼?因為我不知道,所以我預期第四季會有更好的表現,比去年快 200 個基點。

  • And then separately, you don't seem to be planning to reduce unit growth at all. So how do we think about new store productivity like in the coming years?

    另外,您似乎根本不打算減少單位增長。那我們該如何看待未來幾年新店的生產力呢?

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Hey, Jacob, I can take the first part of the question. So yeah, definitely a tough comp guide, I get it. The Q4 that's tough. And again, after seeing the positive trends in September and October. But if you look at a two-year basis, is showing a slight slowdown.

    嘿,雅各布,我可以回答問題的第一部分。所以,是的,這絕對是一個艱難的比賽指南,我明白了。Q4 太難了。再次看到九月和十月的正面趨勢之後。但如果以兩年為基礎來看,則顯示出略有放緩。

  • And again, we're progressing through the fourth quarter where we still had some difficult comparison last year, even given the systems impact. So again, we really wanted to be prudent and a little more cautious on our outlook for the full year and the fourth quarter in the comps, and that's why we guided -- adjusted our guidance down.

    再說一次,我們正在進入第四季度,即使考慮到系統的影響,我們仍然與去年進行了一些困難的比較。因此,我們真的希望對全年和第四季度的比較前景保持謹慎和更加謹慎的態度,這就是我們下調指導的原因。

  • And everything that Eric's talked about too as well. We really are trying to rebalance our value proposition and get that back to the customers. And we look at it all together, the whole package and its comp and its margin and hitting all of those out of the ballpark, so to speak, where we can.

    以及埃里克所談論的一切。我們確實正在努力重新平衡我們的價值主張並將其回饋給客戶。我們會綜合考慮所有因素,包括整個方案及其補償和利潤,並在我們力所能及的範圍內將所有這些都排除在外。

  • But with comp, it's just it's really being prudent. There's a lot going on right now, and we've got holidays, and we've got a few things going on. And frankly, we just really wanted to make sure that we were reading the competitive pressures, right, for comp and the guide.

    但對於比較而言,這只是非常謹慎的做法。現在發生了很多事情,我們有假期,我們還有一些事情要做。坦白說,我們只是想確保我們正在閱讀競爭壓力,對,對於補償和指南。

  • And then for '25, again, not commenting formally on guidance, but just reiterating our long-term algorithm definitely stands, one to three comp is what we think is a very strong performance for this business, along with GM at 30.5% and EBITDA at 6%, as I mentioned. So again, that's really what we're trying to orient folks to for '25.

    然後,對於 25 年,再次,不正式評論指導,但只是重申我們的長期演算法絕對有效,一到三個比較是我們認為該業務非常強勁的表現,以及 30.5% 的 GM 和 EBITDA正如我所提到的,為6%。再說一次,這確實是我們在 25 世紀試圖引導人們的方向。

  • As Eric said, we really don't want to be talking about these systems next year. We hope we're not. And so we really just want to make sure that everyone's oriented to those long-term algos algorithm as we head into '25.

    正如艾瑞克所說,我們真的不想明年談論這些系統。我們希望我們不是。因此,當我們進入 25 年時,我們真的只是想確保每個人都以這些長期演算法為導向。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Jacob, yeah, I think you asked about new store growth. I don't see any problem with the ability to open the 50-plus stores next year, we've got leases signed. Team has done a really nice job of setting those up. So I'd say that number feels good.

    雅各布,是的,我想你問過新店成長的問題。我認為明年開設 50 多家商店沒有任何問題,我們已經簽署了租約。團隊在設置這些方面做得非常好。所以我想說這個數字感覺很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jeremy Hamblin, Craig Hallum.

    (操作員說明)Jeremy Hamblin、Craig Hallum。

  • Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst

    Jeremy Hamblin - Analyst

  • Eric, welcome back. I wanted to just ask about some of the systems costs that are involved here that you noted. You noted some internal as well as external costs, presumably some consultants. But can you quantify what the magnitude of that is on a quarterly run rate? And then what portion of that is likely to be ongoing as we move through these issues in '25 versus more temporary cost here over the next quarter or two?

    埃里克,歡迎回來。我想問一下您提到的這裡涉及的一些系統成本。您注意到一些內部和外部成本,大概是一些顧問。但你能量化季度運行率的大小嗎?那麼,當我們在 25 年解決這些問題時,其中哪一部分可能會持續下去,而不是在接下來的一兩個季度產生更多的臨時成本?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Jeremy, I don't think we're going to quantify that. It is going to be somewhat ongoing in Q1. Maybe, Lindsay, you can -- we're not going to quantify.

    是的。傑里米,我認為我們不會量化這一點。這將在第一季持續進行。也許,林賽,你可以──我們不會量化。

  • Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Lindsay Gray - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • No. Yeah, Jerry, we haven't quantified that, but let me just give you a little context around that because it sounds general, just kind of systems cost. And so as we think about everywhere we're spending some higher levels of SG&A than we had previously forecasted. A lot goes into maintaining and improving systems infrastructure.

    不。是的,傑裡,我們還沒有量化這一點,但讓我給你一些相關背景信息,因為這聽起來很籠統,只是一種系統成本。因此,當我們考慮到所有地方時,我們的銷售、管理及行政費用水準都高於我們先前的預測。維護和改進系統基礎設施需要投入大量精力。

  • So system infrastructure, first of all, super sophisticated system with SAP and a lot of other ancillary systems we put into place as well when we went live. Just the the infrastructure that we need, the cloud, the GPP and whatnot, all higher run rate than what we expected and grew more than we thought.

    所以系統基礎設施,首先是超級複雜的 SAP 系統,以及我們在上線時安裝的許多其他輔助系統。只是我們需要的基礎設施、雲端、GPP 等等,運作速度都比我們預期的要高,成長速度也比我們想像的還要快。

  • Second, resources, you're totally right. So during this transition period where we're trying to continue to further stabilize the system and do enhancements got internal resources, you've got external resource. You have some overlap as you're transitioning those resources internally.

    第二,資源,你說得完全正確。因此,在這個過渡時期,我們試圖繼續進一步穩定係統並進行增強,獲得了內部資源,也獲得了外部資源。當您在內部轉移這些資源時,會有一些重疊。

  • We've made some great hires internally with SAP knowledge, which is fantastic, but then you have the overlap where you're rolling consultants off. And we really want to make sure we get this right and we remediate things correctly. So resources is a large part of this as well. And again, definitely a transition time and temporary.

    我們在內部聘用了一些擁有 SAP 知識的優秀人才,這非常棒,但隨後您會遇到重疊的情況,需要解僱顧問。我們確實希望確保我們做對了,並正確地糾正了問題。所以資源也是其中很大一部分。再說一次,這絕對是一個過渡時間,而且是暫時的。

  • And so Jeremy, as you're thinking of 25%. What I mentioned is where we want to see is EBITDA of around 6% in '25, but really building to that for the full year as we go through the year just because we only have seven weeks left. And we really -- we're going to be working on this as we have been as hard as we can, but we expect some of these transitionary costs to continue into 2025.

    Jeremy,如你所想的 25%。我提到的是,我們希望看到 25 年的 EBITDA 約為 6%,但隨著我們度過這一年,我們實際上會在全年實現這一目標,因為我們只剩下七週了。我們確實將盡最大努力解決這個問題,但我們預計其中一些過渡成本將持續到 2025 年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Kirk, Roth Capital Partners.

    比爾‧柯克,羅斯資本合夥人。

  • William Kirk - Analyst

    William Kirk - Analyst

  • Thank you for sneaking me in. So in the industry, the availability of like e-commerce options keeps increasing, whether it's the broader assortment or wider delivery radius or even maybe more manageable fees. So I guess the question is, what are your IOs seeing in terms of new competition that might not have existed before that they now have to go up against as the availability of e-commerce options has increased?

    謝謝你偷偷帶我進來。因此,在行業中,類似電子商務選項的可用性不斷增加,無論是更廣泛的品種還是更廣泛的送貨半徑,甚至可能是更易於管理的費用。所以我想問題是,隨著電子商務選項的可用性增加,您的資訊長在以前可能不存在的新競爭中看到了什麼?

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Bill, I would say not a lot at the value end. All of those delivery options come with a cost, which is a higher price. So for now, people are reverting to value, it's super convenient to order things and have them delivered. But we're getting a lot of engagement from customers on the prices.

    比爾,我想說在價值方面並沒有太多。所有這些交付選項都是有成本的,即更高的價格。所以現在,人們正在回歸價值,訂購商品並送貨上門非常方便。但我們在價格方面得到了很多客戶的參與。

  • And I'd say the treasure hunt in-store is still really strong. It's well worth the trip. We hear that in feedback and surveys all the time.

    我想說,店內的尋寶活動仍然非常強勁。這趟旅行非常值得。我們一直在反饋和調查中聽到這一點。

  • People are finding that that treasure on is a little bit more difficult online. We mean to cast any sort of shade at those that are perpetuating that model. But for us, it's a minor part what we do and the major part of what we do is the treasure hunt.

    人們發現網路上的寶藏有點困難。我們的意思是對那些延續這種模式的人施加任何形式的陰影。但對我們來說,這只是我們所做的一小部分,而我們所做的主要部分是尋寶。

  • And look, we're continuing -- we've got all of our platforms up and we're continuing to explore e-com, but it's not a major part of our strategy today.

    看,我們正在繼續——我們已經建立了所有平台,我們正在繼續探索電子商務,但這並不是我們今天策略的主要部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Eric Lindberg for closing comments.

    問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給埃里克·林德伯格(Eric Lindberg)以供結束評論。

  • Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

    Eric Lindberg - Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah. Thank you guys. It's good to be back. I'm excited to be back with the people the operators and the team really bullish on the business. And so I appreciate you all giving us some time and having a lot of interest in our business.

    是的。謝謝你們。回來真好。我很高興能回到那些真正看好這項業務的營運商和團隊中。因此,我感謝大家給我們一些時間並對我們的業務表現出濃厚的興趣。

  • So thanks for the time today, and we'll talk to you in a few minutes. Look forward to it. Thank you.

    感謝您今天抽出時間,我們將在幾分鐘後與您交談。敬請期待。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。