Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Grocery Outlet Full Year 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    您好,歡迎參加雜貨店 2023 年全年獲利結果電話會議。 (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Christine Chen, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

    現在我想將會議交給主持人投資者關係主管 Christine Chen。請繼續,女士。

  • Christine Chen

    Christine Chen

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Grocery Outlet call to discuss financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year for the period ending December 30, 2023. Speaking from management on today's call will be RJ Sheedy, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Charles Bracher, Chief Financial Officer. Following prepared remarks from RJ and Charles, we will open the call for questions.

    下午好,歡迎參加 Grocery Outlet 電話會議,討論截至 2023 年 12 月 30 日的第四季度和財年的財務業績。管理層在今天的電話會議上發言的將是總裁兼首席執行官 RJ Sheedy;和財務長查爾斯·布拉徹(Charles Bracher)。在 RJ 和 Charles 準備好發言後,我們將開始提問。

  • Please note that this conference call is being webcast live, and a recording will be available via telephone playback on the Investor Relations section of the company's website. Participants on this call may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements that address future operating, financial or business performance or the company's strategies or expectations or forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. A description of these factors can be found in this afternoon's press release as well as the company's periodic reports filed with the SEC, all of which may be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website or on sec.gov.

    請注意,本次電話會議正在進行網路直播,錄音將在公司網站的投資者關係部分透過電話播放提供。本次電話會議的參與者可能會做出聯邦證券法意義內的前瞻性聲明。所有涉及未來營運、財務或業務績效或公司策略或預期的陳述或前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異。這些因素的描述可以在今天下午的新聞稿以及公司向 SEC 提交的定期報告中找到,所有這些都可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分或 sec.gov 上找到。

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We are happy to be speaking to you today about our business results acquisition of United Grocery Outlet and outlook for 2024. Let me start by providing some commentary on business performance and notable growth initiatives over the next few years.

    大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。我們很高興今天與您談論我們收購 United Grocery Outlet 的業務成果以及 2024 年的展望。首先讓我對未來幾年的業務績效和顯著增長計劃進行一些評論。

  • First, our fourth quarter results were slightly ahead of our expectations and traffic and customer acquisition remains strong. We continue to deliver unbeatable value with an exciting treasure hunt experience, and our underlying business fundamentals remain healthy.

    首先,我們第四季的業績略高於我們的預期,流量和客戶獲取仍然強勁。我們繼續透過令人興奮的尋寶體驗提供無與倫比的價值,並且我們的基本業務基本面保持健康。

  • Second, we are excited to be acquiring United Grocery Outlet, which adds 40 stores to our network. This is an ideal strategic fit given our similar business models, customer value propositions and shared mission of serving and helping others. This acquisition provides Grocery Outlet with scale in a new geography as well as a platform for future expansion in the Southeast. We are thrilled to welcome the United Grocery Outlet team into the Grocery Outlet family, and we look forward to working together on the many growth opportunities ahead.

    其次,我們很高興收購 United Grocery Outlet,這為我們的網路增加了 40 家商店。鑑於我們相似的業務模式、客戶價值主張以及服務和幫助他人的共同使命,這是一個理想的策略契合。此次收購為 Grocery Outlet 在新的地理區域提供了規模,並為未來在東南部的擴張提供了平台。我們很高興歡迎 United Grocery Outlet 團隊加入 Grocery Outlet 大家庭,我們期待在未來的眾多成長機會中共同努力。

  • Third, we are making good progress on a number of strategic initiatives that we believe will strengthen our value proposition and contribute to future growth. Our personalization app is now rolling out to all stores, and we will soon begin to invest in marketing to drive downloads and adoption. We are also looking forward to the launch of our new private label program later this year.

    第三,我們在一些策略性舉措上取得了良好進展,我們相信這些舉措將加強我們的價值主張並為未來的成長做出貢獻。我們的個人化應用程式現已向所有商店推出,我們很快將開始投資行銷以推動下載和採用。我們也期待今年稍後推出新的自有品牌計劃。

  • Finally, we are excited to welcome Ramesh Chikkala to Grocery Outlet in the new role of Chief Operations Officer. I have known Ramesh for a number of years, and he is familiar with our business through previous consulting work. Ramesh is leading our business technology and supply chain teams to help us scale and improve our capabilities to support growth.

    最後,我們很高興歡迎 Ramesh Chikkala 加入 Grocery Outlet,擔任營運長這項新職位。我認識拉梅什很多年了,他透過先前的顧問工作熟悉了我們的業務。 Ramesh 領導我們的業務技術和供應鏈團隊,幫助我們擴展和提高支援成長的能力。

  • Let me now expand on each of these with more details. Fourth quarter sales increased 6.3%, driven by a 2.7% increase in comparable store sales, which was ahead of our expectations. Transaction count remains strong at 7.5%, increasing throughout the quarter. While food inflation has been moderating, consumers still face higher food prices and other financial burdens. Our compelling savings and ever-changing assortment of high-quality WOW! items continue to drive healthy traffic increases and market share gains.

    現在讓我詳細闡述其中每一個。第四季銷售額成長 6.3%,主要得益於可比門市銷售額成長 2.7%,超出了我們的預期。交易數量仍然強勁,達到 7.5%,整個季度都在增加。儘管食品通膨一直在放緩,但消費者仍然面臨更高的食品價格和其他財務負擔。我們令人信服的節省和不斷變化的高品質WOW!商品繼續推動流量的健康成長和市場份額的成長。

  • Fourth quarter gross margin was also ahead of our expectations at 30.2%. The closeout market remains strong and our growing size and scale provide increasing access to products with strong customer value and healthy margin. We opened 13 new stores in the fourth quarter, including our first store in Ohio, ending the year with 468 locations. Recent vintages continue to ramp well and we are pleased with new store performance.

    第四季毛利率也高於我們的預期,為 30.2%。清倉市場仍然強勁,我們不斷擴大的規模和規模為我們提供了更多獲得具有強大客戶價值和可觀利潤率的產品的機會。我們在第四季開設了 13 家新店,其中包括在俄亥俄州的第一家店,年底門市數量達到 468 家。最近的年份繼續保持良好勢頭,我們對新店的表現感到滿意。

  • We have made steady progress with our systems implementation work, though data integration efforts are taking longer than expected and are still impacting our business results. The largest remaining issues are related to warehouse product expiry data and store level reporting for IOs. We expect these to be resolved soon, after which the P&L impact will be behind us. Charles will provide more details in his comments.

    儘管資料整合工作花費的時間比預期要長,並且仍然影響我們的業務成果,但我們的系統實施工作取得了穩步進展。剩下的最大問題與倉庫產品過期資料和 IO 的商店級報告有關。我們預計這些問題很快就會解決,之後損益影響將被拋在腦後。查爾斯將在他的評論中提供更多細節。

  • Despite the system's disruption, business fundamentals are healthy and our new applications are supporting daily operations well. We are proud to have delivered strong results during 2023, growing sales by 11% to a record $4 billion. This was driven by comp store sales growth of 7.5% and a customer count increase of 8.3%. We also leveraged gross profit by 76 basis points and grew adjusted EBITDA by 18%.

    儘管系統中斷,但業務基本面仍然健康,我們的新應用程式很好地支援日常營運。我們很自豪在 2023 年取得了強勁的業績,銷售額成長了 11%,達到創紀錄的 40 億美元。這是由同店銷售額增長 7.5% 和顧客數量增長 8.3% 推動的。我們也將毛利提高了 76 個基點,調整後 EBITDA 成長了 18%。

  • Now let's turn to the acquisition. United Grocery Outlet is a healthy, profitable and growing business. Their opportunistic buying model, similar company values and adjacent geographic footprint make it an ideal strategic fit. Founded 50 years ago, United Grocery Outlet offers customers tremendous savings within a treasure hunt shopping environment. Strong partnerships with national and regional brands enable it to provide quality food at unbeatable prices to its loyal customer base.

    現在讓我們轉向收購。 United Grocery Outlet 是一家健康、有獲利且不斷成長的企業。他們的機會主義購買模式、相似的公司價值觀和鄰近的地理足跡使其成為理想的策略契合點。 United Grocery Outlet 成立於 50 年前,在尋寶購物環境中為顧客提供巨額優惠。與國家和地區品牌的牢固合作夥伴關係使其能夠以無與倫比的價格為其忠實的客戶群提供優質食品。

  • United Grocery Outlet also operates as a local business with a mission of giving back and making a positive impact on their community. Their stores averaged 17,000 square feet and have seen healthy same-store sales growth in recent years, driven by both transaction count and ring. This acquisition provides Grocery Outlet a great entry point into the Southeast region with 40 stores across the 6 states of Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky and Virginia. United Grocery Outlet also operates a distribution center, which can support additional new store growth in the broader Southeast region. This is an exciting addition as we pursue our white space opportunity of over 4,000 stores across the U.S.

    United Grocery Outlet 也是一家當地企業,其使命是回饋社區並對其社區產生積極影響。他們的商店平均面積為 17,000 平方英尺,近年來在交易數量和營業額的推動下,同店銷售實現了健康成長。此次收購為 Grocery Outlet 進入東南地區提供了一個絕佳的切入點,在田納西州、北卡羅來納州、喬治亞州、阿拉巴馬州、肯塔基州和維吉尼亞州 6 個州擁有 40 家門市。 United Grocery Outlet 還經營一個配送中心,可以支援更廣泛的東南地區新店的成長。這是一個令人興奮的補充,因為我們正在美國各地尋求 4,000 多家商店的空白空間機會。

  • Distribution center infrastructure in this region also provides us with better access to opportunistic product that can benefit all Grocery Outlet stores. We have many levers to accelerate sales growth in partnership with the United Grocery Outlet team. Some of these opportunities include assortment expansion, additional store fixtures and improvements and technology and marketing investments. We also see our independent operator model as another lever for growth. It is an important differentiator for us, and we believe that it can have a positive impact in this region as well. We look forward to updating you on the integration progress as we go.

    該地區的配送中心基礎設施也為我們提供了更好的機會獲得機會產品,使所有雜貨直銷店受益。我們與 United Grocery Outlet 團隊合作,擁有多種手段來加速銷售成長。其中一些機會包括品種擴展、額外的商店固定裝置和改進以及技術和行銷投資。我們也將獨立運營商模式視為成長的另一個槓桿。這對我們來說是一個重要的差異化因素,我們相信它也可以對該地區產生積極的影響。我們期待隨時向您通報整合進度。

  • In addition to the United Grocery Outlet stores, we plan to open 15 to 20 stores for a total of 55 to 60 net new stores this year. Our real estate pipeline is healthy with approved sites for 2025 in good position to deliver our 10% annual growth goal. Given this, most of our recent real estate efforts have been focused on building the 2026 pipeline. This will add to what is currently over 100 approved sites for 2025 and 2026 combined.

    除了United Grocery Outlet店外,我們今年還計劃開設15至20家門市,淨新店總數為55至60家。我們的房地產開發管道狀況良好,2025 年已批准的土地能夠很好地實現我們 10% 的年度成長目標。有鑑於此,我們最近的大部分房地產工作都集中在建造 2026 年管道上。這將使目前批准的 2025 年和 2026 年場地總數超過 100 個。

  • We continue to pursue organic growth combined with additional real estate opportunities that align with our long-term geographic expansion and store growth strategies. We are expanding strategic relationships with large property owners, evaluating opportunistic real estate lists and exploring additional strategic regional acquisitions. The combination of these activities will help us deliver on our tremendous long-term store growth and geographic expansion opportunities.

    我們繼續追求有機成長,並結合額外的房地產機會,以符合我們的長期地域擴張和商店成長策略。我們正在擴大與大型業主的策略關係,評估機會性房地產清單並探索其他策略性區域收購。這些活動的結合將幫助我們實現巨大的長期商店成長和地理擴張機會。

  • Let's turn now to other strategic initiatives. Our personalization app is on track to be active in all stores by the end of the first quarter. This app will allow us to communicate our weekly deals to customers and customize their treasure hunt experience. This will increase customer engagement with Grocery Outlet and help drive trip frequency and share of wallet.

    現在讓我們轉向其他策略舉措。我們的個人化應用程式預計在第一季末在所有商店中上線。這個應用程式將使我們能夠向客戶傳達我們的每週優惠並客製化他們的尋寶體驗。這將增加客戶與雜貨店的互動,並有助於提高旅行頻率和錢包份額。

  • We are also looking forward to launching our first new private label products later in the second half of the year with a goal of 100 SKUs by year-end. Our assortment will initially focus on everyday value commodity categories that deliver better value and margin and complete the full shop. These items will help us capture larger baskets and create a stickier customer relationship. Our private label strategy will also include NOSH categories and unique items that will serve as another differentiator, enhancing the customer shopping experience.

    我們也期待在今年下半年稍後推出第一批新的自有品牌產品,目標是在年底推出 100 個 SKU。我們的品種最初將專注於日常價值商品類別,這些商品類別可提供更好的價值和利潤並完善整個商店。這些商品將幫助我們贏得更大的購物籃並建立更牢固的客戶關係。我們的自有品牌策略還將包括 NOSH 類別和獨特的商品,這些商品將成為另一個差異化因素,增強客戶的購物體驗。

  • Next, for a people update, we welcomed Ramesh Chikkala last month in the new role of Chief Operations Officer. Ramesh's experience in retail and operations organizations includes 14 years at Walmart, whereas SVP, he led its global supply chain and food manufacturing operations as well as its global technology organization. Most recently, Ramesh has been a senior adviser to Kearney in their operation supply chain technology and consumer industry and retail practices. I look forward to working with him to further optimize our supply chain and technology infrastructure to support our long-term growth.

    接下來,關於人員更新,我們上個月迎來了拉梅什·齊卡拉 (Ramesh Chikkala) 擔任首席營運長這一新職位。 Ramesh 在零售和營運組織方面擁有豐富的經驗,其中包括在沃爾瑪工作了 14 年,同時擔任高級副總裁,領導其全球供應鏈和食品製造業務以及全球技術組織。最近,Ramesh 擔任科爾尼公司營運供應鏈技術以及消費產業和零售實踐的高級顧問。我期待與他合作,進一步優化我們的供應鏈和技術基礎設施,以支持我們的長期成長。

  • We are in process with our search for a new CFO, and I'm happy to have Lindsay Gray, our SVP of Accounting and Principal Accounting Officer stepping into the role of interim CFO effective March 1. Lindsay has been with Grocery Outlet for the last 8 years leading our accounting team. She is an experienced financial executive with deep knowledge of Grocery Outlet business and over 14 years of leadership in finance. She also is well connected throughout the business and a strong supporter of the IO model.

    我們正在尋找新的 CFO,我很高興我們的會計高級副總裁兼首席會計官 Lindsay Gray 於 3 月 1 日起擔任臨時 CFO。Lindsay 已經在 Grocery Outlet 工作了很長時間。領導我們的會計團隊8 年。她是一位經驗豐富的財務主管,對雜貨店業務有深入的了解,並在財務領域擁有超過 14 年的領導經驗。她還在整個業務領域擁有良好的人脈關係,並且是 IO 模型的堅定支持者。

  • In closing, I would like to thank the Grocery Outlet team and our IOs for their dedication and many contributions. The entrepreneurial spirit of our IOs, combined with the buying power of our team creates a powerfully unique customer experience, which positions us well to continue to grow our market share.

    最後,我要感謝 Grocery Outlet 團隊和我們的 IO 的奉獻精神和做出的許多貢獻。我們的 IO 的創業精神與我們團隊的購買力相結合,創造了強大而獨特的客戶體驗,這使我們能夠繼續擴大市場份額。

  • I also want to thank Charles for his invaluable contributions to Grocery Outlet. Thank you, Charles, for all that you've done over the past 12 years. You'll be greatly missed by everyone and we wish you the best of luck in the next chapter of your career.

    我還要感謝查爾斯對 Grocery Outlet 的寶貴貢獻。謝謝你,查爾斯,過去 12 年所做的一切。每個人都會非常想念您,我們祝福您在職涯的下一個篇章中一切順利。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Charles.

    有了這個,我會把它交給查爾斯。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, RJ, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fourth quarter results slightly exceeded our expectations, reflecting continued strength in transaction growth which improved throughout the quarter.

    謝謝,RJ,大家下午好。我們第四季的業績略微超出了我們的預期,反映出交易成長持續強勁,整個季度有所改善。

  • For fiscal 2023 in total, we delivered strong top line growth with comp sales increasing 7.5%, yielding $4 billion in total sales. We also drove healthy bottom line growth with adjusted EBITDA of 17.7% and adjusted net income increasing 15.2%. For the quarter, net sales increased 6.3% to $989.8 million due to a 2.7% increase in comparable store sales and the impact of new stores opened over the past 12 months. Comp transaction growth of 7.5% was partially offset by a 4.5% decline in our average basket.

    2023 財年,我們實現了強勁的營收成長,公司銷售額成長了 7.5%,總銷售額達 40 億美元。我們也推動了健康的利潤成長,調整後的 EBITDA 為 17.7%,調整後的淨利潤成長了 15.2%。由於可比商店銷售額增長 2.7% 以及過去 12 個月新開商店的影響,本季淨銷售額增長 6.3% 至 9.898 億美元。 7.5% 的比較交易成長被我們的平均籃子 4.5% 的下降部分抵消。

  • We estimate the system transition impacted comp sales by approximately 200 basis points for the quarter. We opened 13 new stores during the quarter, including 7 in the East and 1 in Southern California, ending the year with 468 locations. We remain pleased with the performance of our new stores, which are ramping in line with our expectations.

    我們估計系統轉型對該季度的公司銷售影響約 200 個基點。本季我們新開了 13 家門市,其中 7 家位於東加州,1 家位於南加州,截至年底,門市數量達到 468 家。我們對新店的業績仍然感到滿意,這些店的成長符合我們的預期。

  • Gross profit increased 6.3% to $298.9 million, representing a 30.2% gross margin rate, slightly better than our expectations. We continue to experience healthy deal flow, which helped offset the margin impact of our system integration which we estimate was approximately 130 basis points in the quarter.

    毛利成長 6.3% 至 2.989 億美元,毛利率為 30.2%,略優於我們的預期。我們繼續保持健康的交易流,這有助於抵消系統整合對利潤率的影響,我們估計本季約為 130 個基點。

  • Turning to expenses. Fourth quarter SG&A increased 8.8% to $279.9 million. As a percentage of sales, SG&A increased 65 basis points. The increase was driven by higher commission payments to IOs, store occupancy due to new unit growth and D&A expense. This was partially offset by lower incentive and stock-based compensation accruals.

    轉向開支。第四季銷售、管理及行政費用 (SG&A) 成長 8.8%,達到 2.799 億美元。 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比增加了 65 個基點。這一成長的推動因素包括向 IO 支付的佣金增加、新單位成長帶來的商店佔用率以及 D&A 費用。這被較低的激勵和基於股票的應計薪酬部分抵消。

  • The higher commission expense reflects gross profit growth along with additional commission support we elected to provide our IOs in connection with our system transition. Net interest expense decreased 74.2% to $1.5 million in the quarter. This reflects a reduction in net borrowing versus the prior year, partially offset by higher average rates. In addition, we recorded a reduction of approximately $2 million in the quarter to reflect full year capitalized interest costs related to store construction and other capital projects.

    較高的佣金費用反映了毛利的成長以及我們選擇為與系統轉型相關的 IO 提供的額外佣金支援。本季淨利息支出下降 74.2% 至 150 萬美元。這反映出淨借款較上年減少,但部分被平均利率上升所抵銷。此外,本季我們減少了約 200 萬美元,以反映與商店建設和其他資本項目相關的全年資本化利息成本。

  • Our effective GAAP tax rate during the quarter was 19.3%. For non-GAAP purposes, our normalized tax rate was approximately 31% in the quarter, which reflects a 30% rate for the full fiscal year. As a result of these factors, GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $14.1 million or $0.14 per diluted share. For the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $50.9 million or 5.1% of sales, slightly better than expected. Adjusted net income was $18.2 million for the quarter or $0.18 per diluted share.

    本季我們的有效 GAAP 稅率為 19.3%。就非 GAAP 目的而言,我們本季的標準化稅率約為 31%,這反映了整個財政年度的 30% 稅率。由於這些因素,第四季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 1,410 萬美元,即稀釋後每股收益 0.14 美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 5,090 萬美元,佔銷售額的 5.1%,略優於預期。該季度調整後淨利潤為 1,820 萬美元,或攤薄後每股收益 0.18 美元。

  • Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $115 million of cash. Our inventory position improved throughout the quarter, ending at $350 million. Total debt was $292.7 million at the end of the fourth quarter with net leverage less than 1x adjusted EBITDA. For fiscal 2023, we generated $303.5 million of operating cash flow and we invested $175.6 million in CapEx, net of tenant improvement allowances. This was higher than initially planned due to the timing of payments for new stores and costs related to our systems implementation.

    轉向我們的資產負債表。本季結束時,我們擁有 1.15 億美元現金。我們的庫存狀況在整個季度有所改善,最終達到 3.5 億美元。截至第四季末,總負債為 2.927 億美元,淨槓桿比率低於調整後 EBITDA 的 1 倍。 2023 財年,我們產生了 3.035 億美元的營運現金流,並在資本支出上投資了 1.756 億美元(扣除租戶改善津貼)。由於新店的付款時間以及與我們的系統實施相關的成本,這一數字高於最初計劃。

  • Now let me provide you with some commentary on our fiscal 2024 guidance, which includes the impact of the United Grocery Outlet acquisition and the system transition. We expect the acquisition to close at the beginning of the second quarter. Our first quarter guidance assumes no financial impact from the acquisition and our full year guidance assumes 9 months of financial results from United Grocery Outlet. As a result, our fiscal 2024 guidance assumes incremental sales of approximately $125 million, adjusted EBITDA of $7 million and a modest benefit to adjusted EPS. With respect to our system transition, while we have made progress, the data integration efforts have taken longer than anticipated. Because of this, we expect we'll continue to experience P&L impacts during the first quarter.

    現在,讓我為您提供 2024 財年指引的一些評論,其中包括收購 United Grocery Outlet 和系統轉型的影響。我們預計收購將在第二季初完成。我們的第一季指引假設收購不會產生任何財務影響,而我們的全年指引則假設 United Grocery Outlet 會公佈 9 個月的財務表現。因此,我們的 2024 財年指引假設增量銷售額約為 1.25 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 700 萬美元,調整後每股盈餘適度受益。關於我們的系統過渡,雖然我們取得了進展,但資料整合工作花費的時間比預期要長。因此,我們預計第一季將繼續受到損益影響。

  • With that as background, let me provide you with our expectations for fiscal 2024. For the full year, we are projecting comp sales growth in the range of 3% to 4%. We expect comp growth in the first quarter to be approximately 2%, which includes an estimated 50-basis-point impact from the system transition. We expect to add a total of 55 to 60 net new stores this year. This includes the 40 newly acquired United Grocery Outlet stores as well as 15 to 20 new stores in our existing markets, evenly split by quarter.

    以此為背景,讓我向您提供我們對 2024 財年的預期。對於全年,我們預計公司銷售額將成長在 3% 至 4% 範圍內。我們預計第一季的複合成長率約為 2%,其中包括系統轉型帶來的預期 50 個基點的影響。我們預計今年將淨增加 55 至 60 家新店。這包括新收購的 40 家 United Grocery Outlet 商店以及我們現有市場中的 15 至 20 家新商店,按季度平均分配。

  • In total, we project fiscal 2024 net sales of $4.3 billion to $4.35 billion. For the full fiscal year, we project gross margin of approximately 31.3%. We expect gross margin for the first quarter of approximately 30.4%, which includes an estimated 100-basis-point impact from the system transition. We expect sequential improvement in gross margins into the back half of the year.

    總的來說,我們預計 2024 財年淨銷售額為 43 億美元至 43.5 億美元。我們預計整個財年的毛利率約為 31.3%。我們預計第一季的毛利率約為 30.4%,其中包括系統轉型帶來的預計 100 個基點的影響。我們預計下半年毛利率將持續改善。

  • For the full fiscal year, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $275 million to $283 million. We expect first quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 5%, reflecting lower gross margin and higher IO commission support. For the year, we expect D&A to grow in the mid-teens on a percentage basis, reflecting the impact of store growth, the United Grocery Outlet acquisition and infrastructure reinvestments. We expect stock-based compensation of approximately $32 million for the year. Net interest expense is anticipated to be approximately $17 million. We forecast a normalized tax rate of 30%, and average diluted shares outstanding of approximately 102 million.

    對於整個財年,我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.75 億美元至 2.83 億美元之間。我們預計第一季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 5%,反映出較低的毛利率和較高的 IO 佣金支持。今年,我們預計 D&A 將按百分比計算成長 15%左右,反映了商店成長、聯合雜貨店收購和基礎設施再投資的影響。我們預計今年的股票薪酬約為 3,200 萬美元。淨利息支出預計約 1700 萬美元。我們預計標準化稅率為 30%,平均稀釋後流通股數約為 1.02 億股。

  • We expect CapEx, net of tenant improvement allowances of approximately $170 million, reflecting new store growth, upgrades to our existing fleet including approximately $15 million of anticipated United Grocery Outlet store capital improvements as well as ongoing investments in technology, supply chain and infrastructure. We expect resulting full year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.14 to $1.20 per diluted share.

    我們預計,扣除租戶改善津貼後的資本支出約為1.7 億美元,反映了新店的成長、現有車隊的升級,包括預計聯合雜貨直銷店資本改善的約1500 萬美元,以及對技術、供應鏈和基礎設施的持續投資。我們預計全年調整後每股攤薄每股收益將在 1.14 美元至 1.20 美元之間。

  • In closing, I want to thank the Grocery Outlet team and operator community for an incredible past 12 years. Grocery Outlet is truly a unique company, and I will miss being part of this organization. I'm incredibly proud of all that we have accomplished, and I want to thank RJ, the Board and the leadership team for their fantastic partnership along the way.

    最後,我要感謝 Grocery Outlet 團隊和營運商社群在過去 12 年的出色表現。 Grocery Outlet 確實是一家獨特的公司,我會懷念成為這個組織的一員。我對我們所取得的一切成就感到無比自豪,我要感謝 RJ、董事會和領導團隊一路以來的出色合作。

  • We will now open the call up to your questions. Operator?

    我們現在將開始電話會議,回答您的問題。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question that we have today is from Oliver Chen from TD Cowen.

    (操作員說明) 今天我們收到的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Oliver Chen。

  • Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Charles, congratulations. The United Grocery Outlet deal sounds quite synergistic. I would love your thoughts on what the characteristics were most attractive how might the integration phases go? And then what should we know about the ramp to maturity of these stores and why you like the Southeast? A housekeeping item too. You mentioned that the deal will modestly benefit adjusted EPS. Are there any details on how this will be financed and anything else we should know and looking at the EPS accretion dilution?

    查爾斯,恭喜你。與 United Grocery Outlet 的交易聽起來頗具綜效。我很想聽聽您對哪些特徵最有吸引力的想法,整合階段將如何進行?那麼我們應該了解這些商店的成熟度以及您為什麼喜歡東南部呢?也是家務用品。您提到該交易將適度有利於調整後的每股盈餘。是否有關於如何融資的詳細資訊以及我們應該了解的其他資訊以及考慮每股收益增加稀釋?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • It's RJ. I'll take the first part of that and then kick it over to Charles for the second part of your question.

    是RJ。我將回答第一部分,然後交給查爾斯回答你問題的第二部分。

  • Yes, we're really excited about this acquisition. A lot of things that we like about it. First, I'd say is companies are a great match. We have a shared mission of touching lives and serving customers. We have similar business models, store size, shared customer value propositions around unbeatable value and the treasure hunt experience, all that's supported by opportunistic sourcing and localized assortment. So just a lot of similarities between the two businesses.

    是的,我們對這次收購感到非常興奮。有很多我們喜歡的事。首先,我想說的是,公司是絕配。我們的共同使命是感動生活、服務客戶。我們擁有相似的商業模式、商店規模、圍繞無與倫比的價值和尋寶體驗的共同客戶價值主張,所有這些都得到了機會主義採購和在地化分類的支持。這兩家公司之間有許多相似之處。

  • This is a growth acquisition and a lot of benefits there related to growth. United Grocery Outlet already is a healthy growing business across the 6 states in the Southeast where they operate. We -- in addition to just continued growth of that business, we believe that we have several levers by which we can accelerate growth in the United Grocery Outlet stores. Just a few examples here. One, expanding the assortment, we think a nice opportunity there. Two would be to enhance the store experience through investments in fixtures and signage and technology. Also looking to make additional investments in marketing to continue to drive traffic and growth in that region.

    這是一次成長型收購,有許多與成長相關的好處。 United Grocery Outlet 已在其經營的東南部 6 個州健康發展。除了該業務的持續成長之外,我們相信我們還有多種手段可以加速聯合雜貨直銷店的成長。這裡僅舉幾個例子。第一,擴大品種,我們認為這是一個很好的機會。二是透過對固定裝置、標牌和技術的投資來增強商店體驗。也希望在行銷方面進行額外投資,以繼續推動該地區的流量和成長。

  • And I mentioned in my comments, we also believe that there are benefits to introducing the operator model to this region as well. So a lot there to be (technical difficulty) we think, can help the Grocery Outlet business. They have a bigger fresh meat assortment, so something for us to learn from. They, of course, have relationships with regional suppliers and we think we can take advantage of. And then some other unique operating practices that we look forward to learning from.

    我在評論中提到,我們也相信將運營商模式引入該地區也有好處。因此,我們認為有很多(技術難度)可以幫助雜貨店業務。他們有更多的新鮮肉類品種,所以值得我們學習。當然,他們與區域供應商有關係,我們認為我們可以利用。還有一些其他獨特的營運實踐值得我們學習。

  • Another benefit that I mentioned here is the infrastructure that comes with the deal. It provides us infrastructure in an adjacent region to our current East footprint. It's a great entry point for us into the Southeast. It's great infrastructure to support future growth as we continue to pursue this tremendous white space opportunity that we have. And when you think about the infrastructure that comes with this deal together with the platform that we already have up in the Mid-Atlantic region, we now have a lot of the Eastern U.S. covered in terms of infrastructure for supporting future growth.

    我在這裡提到的另一個好處是交易帶來的基礎設施。它為我們提供了與我們目前東部足跡相鄰的地區的基礎設施。這是我們進入東南部的一個很好的切入點。當我們繼續追求我們所擁有的巨大空白機會時,這是支持未來成長的良好基礎設施。當你考慮到這筆交易帶來的基礎設施以及我們在大西洋中部地區已經建立的平台時,我們現在在支持未來成長的基礎設施方面涵蓋了美國東部的許多地區。

  • And then Lastly, I'd say from an infrastructure standpoint, a nice benefit here expected as far as opportunistic buying goes and giving us better access to product that's in this region, an advantage there for having local presence to land product locally. And Charles, do you want to touch on...

    最後,我想說,從基礎設施的角度來看,就機會主義購買而言,這裡預計會有一個很好的好處,並使我們能夠更好地獲得該地區的產品,這對於在當地擁有本地存在以在當地銷售產品而言是一個優勢。查爾斯,你想談談...

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes. Oliver, it's Charles. Just quickly on how we're approaching the financing and sort of EPS impact of the acquisition with respect to 2024. So we do anticipate using cash on hand upon closing to finance the deal. And so in our guidance, we talked to the EBITDA impact from the deal, which we estimate to be roughly $7 million prorated for 2024. And so think of that as really steady-state performance of the business as it currently stands.

    是的。是的。奧利佛,這是查爾斯。請快速介紹我們如何處理融資以及收購對 2024 年每股收益的影響。因此,我們確實預計在交易結束時使用手頭現金為交易提供資金。因此,在我們的指導中,我們討論了該交易對 EBITDA 的影響,我們估計 2024 年按比例分配的 EBITDA 約為 700 萬美元。因此,可以將其視為該業務目前的真正穩定表現。

  • And then further down the P&L because of the financing with cash, we have factored into our interest expense, the impact of really lost interest income into our guidance there. And likewise, in D&A, our mid-teens guidance reflects the impact of depreciation and amortization related to United Grocery Outlets. All of that comes together to deliver modest EPS accretion in 2024.

    然後,由於現金融資,損益表進一步下降,我們已將利息支出、實際利息收入損失的影響納入我們的指導中。同樣,在 D&A 中,我們的中位數指引反映了與聯合雜貨店相關的折舊和攤銷的影響。所有這些加在一起,將在 2024 年帶來適度的每股盈餘成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question we have comes from Krisztina Katai of Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Krisztina Katai。

  • Krisztina Katai - Research Analyst

    Krisztina Katai - Research Analyst

  • I just had a question about the Southern states and how you're thinking about the store expansion potential there now that you will have 40 stores in the region. So one, is there a profitability differential? Like so how do you view the profitability potential in the region and how it compares relative to the rest of the GO network? Are these included in your 2025 and 2026 store plans? Just anything that you can share in terms of if you started to look for IOs in the region? And just lastly, you acquired DC, you've talked about that it can support further growth. Just wondering how many stores it can fully support.

    我剛剛有一個關於南部各州的問題,以及您如何考慮那裡的商店擴張潛力,因為您將在該地區擁有 40 家商店。那麼第一,獲利能力是否有差異?那麼,您如何看待該地區的獲利潛力以及它與 GO 網路其他地區相比如何?這些是否包含在您 2025 年和 2026 年的商店計劃中?如果您開始在該地區尋找 IO,您有什麼可以分享的嗎?最後,您收購了 DC,您談到它可以支援進一步的成長。只是想知道它可以完全支援多少家商店。

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Krisztina, thanks for the question. I'll take the first part, and then Charles can touch on part of your question as well.

    克里斯蒂娜,謝謝你的提問。我將回答第一部分,然後查爾斯也可以談談你的部分問題。

  • Yes, as I mentioned, we are excited about the infrastructure here. United Grocery Outlet operates a multi-temperature DC. And -- so that we think will serve us well, both, of course, supporting growth in existing stores and then also to your question, as we think about future new store growth. We -- our immediate focus right now is on integration. So we don't have immediate plans to accelerate sort of growth beyond what the United Grocery Outlet team already had planned. So we'll do the work together with the UGO team to proceed on that integration plan.

    是的,正如我所提到的,我們對這裡的基礎設施感到興奮。 United Grocery Outlet 經營多溫 DC。而且,我們認為這對我們有好處,當然,既支持現有商店的成長,也解決你的問題,因為我們考慮未來新商店的成長。我們現在的當務之急是整合。因此,我們沒有立即計劃來加速超越 United Grocery Outlet 團隊已經計劃的成長。因此,我們將與 UGO 團隊合作,繼續實施此整合計劃。

  • And then as we look forward, the Southeast region, a lot of potential for growth there. The existing DC can support growth for the next, call it, several years from a new growth -- store growth standpoint. And then similar to how we manage across the entire network and across all of our points of distribution center and infrastructure, we'll make the necessary investments in that to support future store growth. But again, love the volume that it provides us, love the scale that it provides us and love the entry point into this region of the country, which will support a lot of future stores.

    展望未來,東南地區存在很大的成長潛力。從新的成長-商店成長的角度來看,現有的配送中心可以支持未來幾年的成長。然後,與我們管理整個網路以及所有配送中心和基礎設施的方式類似,我們將對此進行必要的投資,以支持未來商店的成長。但同樣,喜歡它為我們提供的數量,喜歡它為我們提供的規模,喜歡它進入該國這個地區的入口點,這將支持許多未來的商店。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Krisztina, it's Charles, just a bit more color on the store productivity and comparisons versus our GO stores. So we're excited about the potential here, as RJ said. Looking at store productivity, the average sales volumes for the UGO store is about half of our current stores, the basket really similar, traffic is really the opportunity for us. So we think there is a big opportunity to drive that higher through a combination of expanding the assortment, driving trips there, investments we can make into store CapEx and technology as well as on the marketing side.

    Krisztina,我是 Charles,只是對商店生產力以及與我們的 GO 商店的比較進行了更多的描述。因此,正如 RJ 所說,我們對這裡的潛力感到興奮。從門市生產力來看,UGO門市的平均銷售量大約是我們現有門市的一半,購物籃確實相似,流量對我們來說確實是機會。因此,我們認為,透過擴大商品種類、推動前往那裡的旅行、我們可以對商店資本支出和技術以及行銷方面進行的投資,有很大的機會來推動這一成長。

  • In terms of the margin profile, I'd say no real structural margin challenges as we look at the business. Gross margins a little bit higher than our own stores, really because of mix differences and then more limited everyday assortment that they have. Store expenses, a little bit higher than IOs currently operate. But all of that nets down to a very similar EBITDA profile. And so again, looking ahead, we're excited about what we can do here as we grow these stores to look more like Grocery Outlet stores in the future.

    就利潤率而言,我認為在我們審視業務時,不存在真正的結構性利潤率挑戰。毛利率比我們自己的商店高一點,實際上是因為混合差異以及他們擁有的日常品種更加有限。儲存費用,比 IO 目前營運的費用高一點。但這一切都歸結為非常相似的 EBITDA 概況。因此,展望未來,我們對在這裡能做的事情感到興奮,因為我們將這些商店發展得更像雜貨直銷店。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is coming from the line of Robby Ohmes with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅比·歐姆斯 (Robby Ohmes)。

  • Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

    Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

  • One, just a clarification. The -- sorry, the UGO stores that you're acquiring, are they currently in the IO model?

    一,只是澄清一下。抱歉,您正在收購的 UGO 商店目前處於 IO 模式嗎?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • They are not, no...

    他們不是,不…

  • Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

    Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

  • Are you planning to convert them to the IO model?

    您打算將它們轉換為 IO 模型嗎?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • We do. Yes. We do think, of course, the IO model is super important to our business, an important part of our value proposition. We think those benefits will all applied to the Southeast region as well. We are still getting to know the business, the individual stores. We're putting integration plans in place as we speak. We just announced the deal right a little over a week ago. So we're now working together with the United Grocery Outlet team on those plans. But yes, we do think about introducing the operator model in these stores as well.

    我們的確是。是的。當然,我們確實認為 IO 模型對我們的業務非常重要,是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。我們認為這些好處也將適用於東南地區。我們仍在了解業務和各個商店。正如我們所說,我們正在製定整合計劃。我們一周多前剛宣布了這筆交易。因此,我們現在正在與 United Grocery Outlet 團隊合作制定這些計劃。但是,我們確實考慮在這些商店中引入營運商模式。

  • Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

    Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

  • And then RJ, just to -- again, to kind of clarify. So the -- I think you're going to do 55 stores you're saying for '24, and 15 to 20 of them would sort of be organic, not part of the acquisition. But I think you guys were targeting 10% growth organically before you announced the acquisition, which would be more like 47 organic stores. So did you push stores into the future? Or were you tracking to kind of miss opening the 47 organic stores, but then you made this acquisition? Like maybe help me understand just the organic outlook.

    然後 RJ,再澄清一下。因此,我認為您將在 24 年開設 55 家商店,其中 15 到 20 家將是有機的,而不是收購的一部分。但我認為,在宣布收購之前,你們的目標是有機成長 10%,這更像是 47 家有機商店。那麼您是否將商店推向了未來?或者您是否曾錯過開設 47 家有機商店的機會,但後來您進行了這次收購?也許可以幫助我理解有機的前景。

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Yes. We've been focused on delivering the 10% annual store growth this year. We've talked about that throughout. And on the past few calls, we've also talked about pursuing this growth across several fronts, right? Organic growth, of course, but also consideration of opportunistic real estate. We have some new exciting strategic relationships we've built, and then these regional acquisition opportunities that we've been considering as well. And all of these activities combined would represent the 10%.

    當然。是的。今年我們一直致力於實現 10% 的年度商店成長。我們一直在討論這個問題。在過去的幾次電話會議中,我們還討論了在多個方面追求這種成長,對嗎?當然,有機成長也要考慮機會主義的房地產。我們已經建立了一些令人興奮的新策略關係,然後我們也一直在考慮這些區域收購機會。所有這些活動加起來就佔 10%。

  • As we started to see progress on the United Grocery Outlet acquisition, we were able to manage and moderate some of the other activities with this 10% goal in mind. And keep in mind that real estate is just one part of successfully opening new stores, right? We were super mindful of infrastructure needed to support them. Of course, there's operator recruiting readiness, there's marketing and there are a lot of other things that go into opening stores successfully. And so we were able to make those modifications and we love where we're at. We've got 55 to 60 new stores planned this year. But -- okay, it's a little bit ahead of the 10% growth. But for the work that we've done and the plans that are in place, we're excited about the integration work with the 40 as well as the 15 to 20 that we will open organically.

    當我們開始看到聯合雜貨店收購取得進展時,我們能夠以 10% 的目標來管理和調整其他一些活動。請記住,房地產只是成功開設新店的一部分,對嗎?我們非常關注支持他們所需的基礎設施。當然,成功開店也需要做好業者招募準備、行銷工作以及許多其他因素。因此我們能夠進行這些修改,我們喜歡我們現在的處境。今年我們計劃開設 55 至 60 家新店。但是——好吧,這比 10% 的增長有點超前。但對於我們已經完成的工作和已經制定的計劃,我們對與 40 家以及我們將有機開放的 15 到 20 家的整合工作感到興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question we have comes from Joe Feldman of Telsey Advisory Group.

    我們的下一個問題來自特爾西諮詢集團的喬·費爾德曼。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to go back on the private label, if you could share a little more color there. I know it's not coming until the second half. But just curious what if you could dive in a little more in categories. You mentioned NOSH, but are there other, I guess, everyday categories that you're looking to fill with these products? And how might that impact the relationship with any of the vendors or suppliers that you have?

    我想回到自有品牌,如果你能在那裡分享更多的顏色的話。我知道要到下半場才會到來。但只是好奇如果你能更深入地了解一下類別會怎麼樣。您提到了 NOSH,但我猜您還希望用這些產品來填補其他日常類別嗎?這會如何影響您與任何供應商或供應商的關係?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, we're excited to be getting to the point here where we will be introducing these new items and brands later this year. And as you know, we've been spending a lot of time building capabilities and setting the strategy and the foundation this past year. So exciting for us to be at the point here soon, where we'll have these new items being introduced to the store. These items will be an enhancement to where everyday assortment, provide better value for customers, better shopping experience, better baskets and then also better margin for the business. So a lot of things to be excited for there.

    是的,我們很高興能在今年稍後推出這些新產品和品牌。如您所知,去年我們花了大量時間來建立能力、制定策略和基礎。我們很高興很快就能到達這裡,我們將在商店中推出這些新商品。這些商品將增強日常分類,為顧客提供更好的價值、更好的購物體驗、更好的購物籃,進而為企業帶來更好的利潤。那裡有很多令人興奮的事情。

  • As I mentioned in my comments, second half of the year is when we'll start introducing these items to the store, and we have this goal of 100 new items by the end of the year. The initial focus will be in more commodity categories where -- and we have a nice opportunity to offer better value and again, margin and some of the items that we're currently carrying. And I'll just give you a few examples for where you start to see some of these initial items, water will be one of the first ones. We've got some nice opportunities in items lined up within the baking category, pasta category and cheese as well. So those are just a few. We've got others, of course, on the list, that will be part of the 100 items.

    正如我在評論中提到的,下半年我們將開始向商店推出這些商品,我們的目標是在年底前推出 100 種新商品。最初的重點將是更多的商品類別,我們有一個很好的機會提供更好的價值,同樣,利潤和我們目前攜帶的一些商品。我只會給你舉幾個例子,讓你開始看到一些最初的物品,水會是第一個。我們在烘焙類、麵食類和起司類的產品中也有一些很好的機會。這些只是其中的一小部分。當然,我們還有其他的項目也在名單上,它們將成為 100 項項目的一部分。

  • And then in addition to some of these commodity categories, also planning to introduce, I'll call them more differentiated items and where NOSH is a great opportunity here, items that can just further strengthen the treasure hunt experience can further differentiate us and also serve as another point of well, differentiation and destination for customers that are shopping our stores. So a lot there for us to like, still just the beginning. This is going to be a longer journey, but at least excited to be taking this first big step in getting this initial wave of products out to the stores and to our customers.

    然後除了這些商品類別之外,還計劃推出,我將它們稱為更具差異化的商品,其中NOSH在這裡是一個很好的機會,能夠進一步增強尋寶體驗的商品可以進一步使我們與眾不同,也可以服務我們。作為在我們商店購物的顧客的另一個優勢、差異化和目的地。有很多值得我們喜歡的地方,但這只是個開始。這將是一個漫長的旅程,但至少很高興能夠邁出第一步,將第一波產品推向商店和我們的客戶。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. And good luck, Charles with everything.

    偉大的。祝查爾斯一切順利。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question now comes from Mark Carden from UBS.

    (操作員說明)下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的馬克卡登。

  • Mark David Carden - Associate Director and Associate Analyst

    Mark David Carden - Associate Director and Associate Analyst

  • So for the year ahead, you're expecting a gross margin that's north of 31% for the second straight year, even with the systems headwind, noticeably above your historical rate, sounds like trends are expected to improve in 2H as well. Just what are the biggest factors driving this change?

    因此,對於未來一年,您預計毛利率將連續第二年超過 31%,即使存在系統逆風,也明顯高於歷史水平,聽起來預計下半年趨勢也會有所改善。推動這項變化的最大因素是什麼?

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Mark, it's Charles. I would say for us, we're just really pleased with the purchasing backdrop that we continue to experience. Yes, the technology implementation has had an impact, but the deal flow we're seeing, the backdrop from a buying perspective feels very good. Beyond that, continuing to see inflation moderate very much as we expected in promotional activity looks to still remain very, very rational. So I feel great about the setup for the year. To your point, it's above our sort of historical margin performance looking back over time, but again, just think some of those tailwinds will play to our strengths this year.

    是的,馬克,是查爾斯。我想說,對我們來說,我們對我們繼續經歷的購買背景感到非常滿意。是的,技術的實施產生了影響,但我們看到的交易流程,從購買角度來看的背景感覺非常好。除此之外,正如我們在促銷活動中所預期的那樣,通貨膨脹繼續溫和,看起來仍然非常非常理性。所以我對今年的安排感覺很好。就你的觀點而言,隨著時間的推移,它高於我們的歷史利潤率表現,但同樣,想想這些順風車今年將發揮我們的優勢。

  • Mark David Carden - Associate Director and Associate Analyst

    Mark David Carden - Associate Director and Associate Analyst

  • Great. And then how is the overall product pipeline shaping up for 2024? Are you guys expecting to see much change in the pace of CPG innovation?

    偉大的。那麼 2024 年整體產品線的情況如何?你們是否期望看到快速消費品創新步伐發生重大變化?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • It's good. Yes, we continue to be encouraged by the pipeline of opportunistic product. It continues to be broad-based across categories. There was a lot of positive momentum throughout all of last year through to the end of the year and that's all carried forward through the first quarter so far, and we think carries forward through this year.

    很好。是的,我們繼續受到機會主義產品管道的鼓舞。它仍然具有廣泛的跨類別基礎。從去年全年到今年年底,都有很多積極的勢頭,這些勢頭都延續到了第一季至今,我們認為今年也會延續下去。

  • And as far as just some of the trends we've talked about in the past, forecasting continues to be hard. So that contributes to opportunistic supply. Yes, product innovation continues to be healthy and increase in -- as suppliers introduce new items and they extend brands and there's branded label changes and packaging changes, those are all beneficial from the surplus inventory standpoint.

    就我們過去討論過的一些趨勢而言,預測仍然很困難。因此,這有助於機會主義供給。是的,產品創新持續健康發展,並且隨著供應商推出新產品、擴展品牌、品牌標籤變化和包裝變化,從過剩庫存的角度來看,這些都是有益的。

  • And then just generally, changes in assortment and products are favorable. And so there continues to be a lot of dynamic factors to the supply environment. So all those have us feeling pretty good about what we're seeing currently and what's in front of us here through the rest of the year.

    一般來說,品種和產品的變化是有利的。因此,供應環境仍存在許多動態因素。因此,所有這些都讓我們對當前所看到的以及今年剩餘時間我們面前的情況感覺非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question we have comes from Corey Tarlowe of Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的科里·塔洛 (Corey Tarlowe)。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • Great. So I wanted to ask about the UGO acquisition. And as you think about this acquisition versus the one you made about a decade ago in Amelia's, what's -- when does the IO model make sense? Because I think RJ or Charles, you had mentioned that the productivity or the sales volumes are about half of the fleet currently. So when does it make sense to introduce the IO model? Is it a multi-quarter or multiyear phasing? And then how do you think about some of the similarities and differences between when you bought Amelia's and how that integrated into the enterprise versus buying UGO today?

    偉大的。所以我想問一下UGO收購的事。當您考慮這次收購與大約十年前在 Amelia 進行的收購時,IO 模型何時有意義?因為我認為 RJ 或 Charles,您曾提到生產力或銷售目前約為機隊的一半。那麼什麼時候引入IO模型才有意義呢?是多季還是多年階段?那麼,您如何看待購買 Amelia's 時以及如何將其融入企業與今天購買 UGO 之間的一些異同?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Corey. let me -- I'm going to start with your second question, and then I'll -- let me come back to the first part of your question. The Amelia's acquisition was a long time ago. Many things have changed in our business since then. I will note some similarities between that acquisition and this one, similar business model, value propositions, shared values for how we operate in both cases. So that's certainly similar. Both are providing us with infrastructure to support growth in a new region. In the case of Amelia's, it was really an entry point to the East Coast and here now a new region in the East Coast, but both coming with stores and distribution centers, local team, that we'll continue operating the business those are all very helpful for entry into a new geography.

    是的。謝謝,科里。讓我——我將從你的第二個問題開始,然後我——讓我回到你問題的第一部分。 Amelia 的收購是很久以前的事了。從那時起,我們的業務發生了許多變化。我會指出這次收購與這次收購之間的一些相似之處,相似的商業模式、價值主張以及我們在這兩種情況下運作方式的共同價值。所以這肯定是相似的。兩者都為我們提供基礎設施以支持新地區的成長。就阿米莉亞來說,它確實是東海岸的一個切入點,現在是東海岸的一個新地區,但都設有商店和配送中心、當地團隊,我們將繼續經營業務,這些都是對於進入新的地理環境非常有幫助。

  • And then this point about providing better access to opportunistic supply. We saw that play out in a really positive way with Amelia's and we expect that to be the same for product that is local within that region in the case of United Grocery Outlet. So a lot of similarities there. In terms of -- a lot of differences as well, just in terms of store count and other parts of operation, but probably more similarities than not.

    然後是關於提供更好的機會供應機會。我們看到阿米莉亞的這種情況以非常積極的方式發揮作用,我們預計聯合雜貨店的情況對於該地區的本地產品也是如此。所以有很多相似之處。就商店數量和其他營運部分而言,也有很多差異,但相似之處可能更多。

  • In terms of timing and integration, Again, we are really just starting to work through integration planning together with the United Grocery Outlet team as it hasn't been that long since the deal has been announced. First, I'd say it's a healthy growing business. So our top priority is to maintain current business momentum and be smart about how we begin to integrate it and how we think about prioritizing and sequencing and timing for some of these growth opportunities.

    在時間安排和整合方面,我們實際上才剛開始與 United Grocery Outlet 團隊一起制定整合規劃,因為距離宣布交易還沒有多久。首先,我想說這是一項健康成長的業務。因此,我們的首要任務是保持當前的業務勢頭,並明智地考慮如何開始整合它,以及如何考慮其中一些成長機會的優先順序、排序和時機。

  • And that -- getting to your question around the operator model, but it would also apply to rebranding and other things that we might do, we want to make sure that we've got a well-integrated plan, and we're doing and making these changes in the right cadence, not the right pace relative to the ongoing business and making sure we're striking a healthy balance there.

    那 - 關於運營商模型的問題,但這也適用於品牌重塑和我們可能做的其他事情,我們希望確保我們有一個完善的綜合計劃,並且我們正在做和以正確的節奏進行這些改變,而不是相對於正在進行的業務的正確步伐,並確保我們在那裡取得健康的平衡。

  • Think about the activation a lot of these accelerated growth opportunities have taking place over the next couple of years. There are things that we would want to get in place prior to any rebranding or conversion. Some of the near-term opportunities would be around expanding the assortment, some of the investments that we want to make into the stores, and you get some of those things in place. And then following that, we would think about sequencing the rebranding and then also some of the opportunities which will need to be store-specific, need to be thoughtful about how we do this as far as introducing the operator model.

    想想未來幾年將發生的許多加速成長機會的活化。在任何品牌重塑或轉換之前,我們希望先做好一些事情。一些近期的機會是擴大品種,我們想要對商店進行一些投資,並且你可以將其中一些事情落實到位。接下來,我們會考慮對品牌重塑進行排序,然後還有一些需要針對特定商店的機會,需要考慮我們如何做到這一點,直到引入運營商模型。

  • But that wouldn't happen, at least as far as the operator -- opportunities go wouldn't happen in this first year. Think of that as starting really in the second year and then following a period of time similar to Amelia's where we would look to introduce that over time and on a store-specific basis.

    但這種情況不會發生,至少對營運商來說——第一年就不會出現機會。可以將其視為真正從第二年開始,然後在類似於阿米莉亞的一段時間內,我們希望隨著時間的推移並在特定於商店的基礎上引入這一點。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. What was ring up in 2023? And then within your guide, what's the expectation for ticket or ring increase in '24?

    知道了。然後進行快速跟進。 2023年發生了什麼事?然後在您的指南中,對 24 年門票或戒指增加的預期是什麼?

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So let me start with the latter there. So as we think about the -- for our business, the components of comp for the balance of the year, we think that 2024 will continue to see comps driven by traffic. And that's going to be offset in part by lower basket. So on the traffic side, yes, food inflation moderating, but in absolute terms remains high. The consumer is feeling pressure from that along with high interest rates and consumer credit. So we think all of that will be a tailwind for us from a traffic standpoint as we've seen recently.

    是的。讓我從後者開始。因此,當我們考慮我們的業務、今年剩餘時間的補償組成時,我們認為 2024 年補償將繼續由流量驅動。這將被較低的籃子部分抵消。因此,在交通方面,是的,食品通膨有所放緩,但絕對值仍然很高。消費者正感受到高利率和消費信貸帶來的壓力。因此,我們認為從流量的角度來看,所有這些都將成為我們的順風車,正如我們最近所看到的。

  • From a basket standpoint, it will be lower due to, number one, the increased trip frequency and the impact that has on baskets and more trips, lower baskets as well as moderated inflation. Within the basket itself, again, the components for our business, a little less comparable due to the changing nature of the assortment.

    從籃子的角度來看,它會較低,因為,第一,旅行頻率的增加以及對籃子和更多旅行、籃子的減少以及溫和的通貨膨脹的影響。同樣,在籃子本身內,由於品種性質的變化,我們業務的組成部分的可比性稍差。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question we have comes from John Heinbockel of Guggenheim Securities.

    (操作員指令)我們的下一個問題來自古根漢證券公司的約翰·海因博克爾。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to start with when do you think, is it really the end of the first quarter when there's a complete normalization and how the IOs are using the systems and financial impact. Is that fair? And then how do you think about when you try to forecast the recovery in the back half of the year, right? Because you lost over 200 basis points of comp and over 100 basis points of gross. I mean, it looks like there is some recovery, but certainly nowhere near a complete recovery.

    我只想從您認為什麼時候開始,第一季末是否真的會完全正常化,以及 IO 如何使用系統和財務影響。這樣公平嗎?那麼當你試著預測下半年的復甦時,你是怎麼想的,對吧?因為您損失了超過 200 個基點的比較和超過 100 個基點的總價值。我的意思是,看起來有所恢復,但肯定遠未完全恢復。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, John, it's Charles. Let me give you a little bit of context on the impact of technology and probably helpful to just provide you with the impact on Q4 and then how we're thinking about the first quarter as well. So in total, think about the EBITDA impact from the technology transition and interruptions is impacting EBITDA by $20 million in the fourth quarter. About half of that comes from the elective IO commission support that we provided to operators. The balance coming from a combination of the impact of the top line and gross margin rate as we've disclosed.

    是的,約翰,是查爾斯。讓我向您介紹一些有關技術影響的背景信息,這可能有助於向您提供對第四季度的影響以及我們對第一季度的看法。因此,總的來說,考慮一下技術轉型和中斷對 EBITDA 的影響,第四季度 EBITDA 的影響為 2000 萬美元。其中大約一半來自我們向營運商提供的選擇性 IO 委員會支持。正如我們所揭露的,平衡來自於營收和毛利率的綜合影響。

  • In the first quarter, those impacts continued, but to a lesser degree. So that what had been a $20 million EBITDA impact in Q4, down to what we estimate and is implied in our guidance of roughly $14 million impact to the first quarter. Again, half of that coming from elective IO commission and the balance from sales and margin impact. So continue to provide that support during the impacted period, but the monthly impact as we're tracking it continues to decline, which feels good to us. Our current guidance assumes that we resolve the remaining issues in front of us and are back to steady-state operations and conclude the elective commission support by the end of the first quarter.

    在第一季度,這些影響仍在繼續,但程度較輕。因此,第四季度 EBITDA 的影響為 2000 萬美元,低於我們的估計值,我們的指導中隱含了對第一季約 1400 萬美元的影響。同樣,其中一半來自選擇性 IO 佣金,其餘則來自銷售和利潤影響。因此,在受影響期間繼續提供支持,但我們追蹤的每月影響繼續下降,這對我們來說感覺很好。我們目前的指導假設我們解決了擺在我們面前的剩餘問題,並恢復到穩態運營,並在第一季末完成選擇性委員會支持。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • All right. One quick follow-up then. The food business is a little bit different, but have you seen any impact from the bad weather and rain in California? Is that -- that would be separate from the 50 basis points, if any, but have you seen anything?

    好的。然後進行快速跟進。食品業有點不同,但您是否看到了加州惡劣天氣和降雨的影響?是不是——這與 50 個基點(如果有的話)是分開的,但你看到了什麼嗎?

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, not significant. Nothing to call out for us.

    是的,並不重要。沒有什麼值得我們稱讚的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question we have comes from Leah Jordan of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Leah Jordan。

  • Leah Dianne Jordan - Research Analyst

    Leah Dianne Jordan - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to touch on the 4Q comp a little bit. It looks like the headwind from the systems change came in about 100 basis points better than you initially guided, but less than that flowed through to the total comp. So I guess what surprised you versus your internal expectations for the core business? And can you talk about just the dynamics in ticket overall and how volumes trended as the ERP rollout improved.

    我只是想稍微談談 4Q 的比較。看起來系統變化帶來的阻力比您最初指導的要好大約 100 個基點,但小於影響到總薪酬的阻力。那麼我想與您對核心業務的內部期望相比,什麼讓您感到驚訝?您能否談談整體工單的動態以及隨著 ERP 部署的改進,工單數量的趨勢如何。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So let me start first in terms of overall comp for -- again 2.7% for us in the quarter, a bit better than we guided. It was a combination of slightly higher basket. So think about that as being the inventory recovery coming out -- working through the system implementation was a bit faster than we thought so that helped basket. And supplementing that traffic was a little bit better. In terms of cadence throughout the quarter, we saw comps improve modestly as we progressed. More importantly, we're tracking very closely the prior year comparisons get a little bit noisy now. We're looking at average weekly sales into some nice improvement through the fourth quarter, that has continued into the first quarter. So I feel like the underlying trends in the business are healthy and improving as we again work our way through the system transition.

    是的。因此,讓我先從整體薪酬方面開始——本季度我們的整體薪酬再次達到 2.7%,比我們指導的要好一些。這是一個略高的籃子的組合。因此,可以將其視為庫存恢復的結果 - 系統實施的速度比我們想像的要快一些,因此有助於購物。補充流量會好一點。就整個季度的節奏而言,我們看到隨著我們的進步,公司業績略有改善。更重要的是,我們正在非常密切地追蹤前一年的比較,現在變得有點吵雜。我們預計第四季度的平均每週銷售額會出現一些不錯的改善,這種情況一直持續到第一季。因此,我覺得隨著我們再次努力完成系統轉型,業務的基本趨勢是健康的並且正在改善。

  • Leah Dianne Jordan - Research Analyst

    Leah Dianne Jordan - Research Analyst

  • Great. And then for my follow-up, I just wanted to go back to the gross margin discussion. Just curious if you've assumed any benefit from the private label rollout and any magnitude of that impact? And also on close out, I guess, what have you assumed within guidance? Is it relatively stable throughout the year? Or any impact on a year-over-year basis there? And then longer term, should we still think that margins stay relatively flat or has anything structurally changed in the business?

    偉大的。然後對於我的後續行動,我只想回到毛利率討論。只是好奇您是否認為自有品牌的推出會帶來任何好處以及影響的大小?我想,在結束時,您在指導範圍內做了什麼假設?全年相對穩定嗎?或對同比有什麼影響嗎?從長遠來看,我們是否仍然認為利潤率保持相對平穩,或者業務發生了結構性變化?

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So no impact from private label, a small number of items, rolling them out later in the year. So not meaningful to margin. From an opportunistic standpoint, I'd say, stable, which is favorable. Those nice trends that I talked about as they contributed in 2023, we expect to contribute similarly to gross margin in 2024.

    是的。因此,自有品牌不會產生影響,少量商品將在今年稍後推出。所以對保證金沒有意義。從機會主義的角度來看,我會說,穩定,這是有利的。我談到的這些良好趨勢在 2023 年做出了貢獻,我們預計在 2024 年也會對毛利率做出類似的貢獻。

  • And then longer term, continue to operate this business for stable margins, always looking to reinvest back into value and driving customer trips, both acquisition and retention and frequency. And we continue to see some really nice trends there. So we like this balance that we have between the value that we're delivering and of course, the margin that is being delivered to the P&L. So that continues to be the approach.

    從長遠來看,繼續經營這項業務以獲得穩定的利潤,始終尋求再投資回價值並推動客戶出行,包括獲取、保留和頻率。我們繼續看到一些非常好的趨勢。因此,我們喜歡我們所提供的價值與提供給損益表的利潤之間的這種平衡。所以這仍然是我們的做法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question we have comes from Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson.

    我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Michael Baker。戴維森。

  • Michael Allen Baker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Allen Baker - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. So the acquired companies EBITDA margins are about 5.5%, right? Pretty close to what you guys do, maybe a little bit below the 6.4% that you did this year, but on half the sales volumes. So if you can get those sales volumes even close to your core stores, what does that mean about the margins from United Grocery Outlet? Do they go that much higher? Or do you reinvest that to keep them at about that mid-6% range. It's just -- it seems interesting that their margins are not that far from you on somewhat to our sales.

    好的。那麼被收購公司的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 5.5%,對嗎?與你們所做的非常接近,可能比你們今年的 6.4% 低一點,但銷量只有一半。因此,如果您的銷量甚至可以接近您的核心商店,那麼 United Grocery Outlet 的利潤意味著什麼?他們會走得那麼高嗎?或者你是否將其再投資以將其保持在 6% 左右的範圍內。只是 - 有趣的是,他們的利潤率在我們的銷售額上與您相去不遠。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Mike, it's Charles. Probably, I'd say it is premature at this point given, again, we haven't closed the transaction. The business, again, last year, roughly $160 million in top line, EBITDA about $10 million. So really similar EBITDA margin profile to our business. As RJ said, really excited about the long-term growth potential for this business, but we do want to be really measured in our approach. And so it's -- it would just be premature for us to put a number to it.

    是的,麥克,我是查爾斯。我認為現在可能還為時過早,因為我們還沒有完成交易。去年,該業務的營收約為 1.6 億美元,EBITDA 約為 1,000 萬美元。 EBITDA 利潤率狀況與我們的業務非常相似。正如 RJ 所說,我們對這項業務的長期成長潛力感到非常興奮,但我們確實希望在我們的方法中得到真正的衡量。所以,我們現在給一個數字還為時過早。

  • But the -- again, the path we're taking is integrate the business, make sure we protect what they have, combine the best of UGO and GO with the goal of continuing to operate the business really in steady state this year. We'll start to invest. Again, lots of ways we think we can drive growth. We're going to learn a lot that will inform what exactly the P&L looks like in the future. But we do think there's a big opportunity for growth and again, taking the best of what we do and what UGO does. We're excited about it.

    但我們再次強調,我們正在採取的道路是整合業務,確保我們保護他們所擁有的東西,將 UGO 和 GO 的優點結合起來,目標是今年繼續以真正穩定的狀態經營業務。我們將開始投資。同樣,我們認為可以透過多種方式推動成長。我們將學到很多東西,這些知識將告訴我們未來的損益表到底是什麼樣子。但我們確實認為,充分利用我們和 UGO 所做的事情,有很大的成長機會。我們對此感到興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question we have comes from Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Jeremy Hamblin。

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong results. I wanted to come back to the new unit development here and just understand in terms of where you are now in opening these stores, your -- kind of your capital outlay in doing that versus where it might have been a couple of years ago? And then just thinking about that in context of the investments you're making here in UGO deal? And then the -- it looks like you -- I think you had indicated there is an additional $15 million of capital improvements that you're looking to make into the UGO locations. Can you just talk about in terms of returns on capital, are you getting more from kind of your base legacy business? And how does that compare to the United deal?

    祝賀取得強勁的成果。我想回到這裡的新單位開發,並了解您現在開設這些商店的情況,與幾年前相比,您這樣做的資本支出是多少?然後考慮一下您在 UGO 交易中進行的投資?然後——看起來像你——我想你已經表示你希望對 UGO 地點進行額外 1500 萬美元的資本改善。您能否談談資本報酬率,您是否從基礎遺留業務中獲得了更多收益?這與曼聯的交易相比如何?

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Jeremy, it's Charles. Let me provide you a little bit of context to how we really thought about the returns for the acquisition. We do think this will generate healthy returns for us. over time. And we really looked at it through a few different lenses. The first was just what's the base business that we're buying. So we think we're paying a fair multiple for the 40 stores that exist today plus the distribution center just based on the last 12 months' performance of the business. As we said, we think it will be modestly accretive to 2024 earnings. So that feels good.

    是的。傑里米,這是查爾斯。讓我向您提供一些背景信息,讓您了解我們如何真正考慮收購的回報。我們確實認為這將為我們帶來健康的回報。隨著時間的推移。我們確實透過幾個不同的視角來看待它。第一個是我們要購買的基礎業務是什麼。因此,我們認為,僅根據過去 12 個月的業務表現,我們為現有 40 家商店加上配送中心支付了相當多的費用。正如我們所說,我們認為這將適度增加 2024 年的收益。所以感覺很好。

  • Beyond that, really the next lens was thinking about the opportunity we have to drive growth within the existing store base. So as we said, it will take time. But as we integrate, as we invest in these stores, we think there's meaningful upside just within the 40 stores today to drive accelerated growth, higher productivity, better bottom line that fuels the return.

    除此之外,真正的下一個鏡頭是考慮我們必須推動現有商店基礎成長的機會。正如我們所說,這需要時間。但隨著我們的整合,隨著我們對這些商店的投資,我們認為僅在今天的 40 家商店中就有有意義的上升空間,可以推動加速成長、提高生產力、改善利潤,從而推動回報。

  • And then lastly, again, it's the platform that this gives us to accelerate growth into a new region. And RJ talked about not only the real estate opportunity in total that gives us, but also the impact it can have for us from a buying perspective. So those would all be additive to the way we thought about the return. So we think this is going to be a great use of capital for us. And we love the way that it really supplements and complements what we do from an organic growth perspective.

    最後,這也是我們加速向新地區發展的平台。 RJ 不僅談到了房地產為我們帶來的整體機遇,還談到了它從購買角度對我們產生的影響。因此,這些都將成為我們對回報的思考方式的補充。所以我們認為這對我們來說將是一個很好的資本利用。我們喜歡它從有機成長的角度真正補充和補充我們所做的事情的方式。

  • Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

    Jeremy Scott Hamblin - Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then just a follow-up there. In terms of your existing stores, Grocery Outlet stores. Where does your kind of initial cash investment lie at this point in time? I think a few years ago, it was in the $2 million and change for the store build-out inventory preopening expense. We believe that's a little bit higher now. Just wanted to sense here that as you're looking at FY '25 and '26 of 100 total locations, what's kind of the expected outlook related to...

    知道了。然後就是後續行動。就您現有的商店而言,雜貨直銷店。目前您的初始現金投資在哪裡?我想幾年前,它是 200 萬美元,用於商店擴建庫存預開業費用。我們認為現在這個數字要高一些。只是想在這裡感覺到,當您查看 25 財年和 26 財年 100 個地點中的情況時,與...相關的預期前景是怎樣的?

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, you're exactly right. We are seeing higher CapEx costs today than we were really the $2 million number ties back to when we brought the business public in 2019. And so clearly, it's a different inflationary environment today versus then. So, yes, everything labor materials, equipment has had an impact. Probably in total, we're seeing new store costs about 25% higher than where we were at the time of IPO.

    是的,你說得完全正確。我們今天看到的資本支出成本比我們在 2019 年將企業上市時的 200 萬美元實際數字要高。很明顯,今天的通膨環境與當時不同。所以,是的,一切勞動力材料、設備都產生了影響。總的來說,我們發現新店的成本比 IPO 時高出約 25%。

  • That said, we've got a number of levers that we're actively working on to reduce costs, everything from value engineering. The build-out to strategic sourcing and both purchasing of equipment. I will say that when you look at the store model and the returns, it's store volume and product profitability that have a much bigger impact on returns relative to CapEx. And so continue to be pleased with the volumes and the profitability we're driving from new stores.

    也就是說,我們正在積極研究多種手段來降低成本,一切都來自價值工​​程。策略採購和設備採購的擴展。我想說的是,當你觀察商店模式和回報時,你會發現,相對於資本支出,商店數量和產品盈利能力對回報的影響要大得多。因此,我們繼續對新店帶來的銷售和盈利能力感到滿意。

  • And so while the recent vintages are seeing as higher construction costs, it is not weighing down our returns in a meaningful way. You can think about it as really having about a 5-point impact on sort of mature year for ROIC. So that's come down from 35%, but still really a healthy, roughly 30% based on current construction cost.

    因此,雖然最近年份的建築成本較高,但它並沒有以有意義的方式影響我們的回報。您可以將其視為對ROIC 成熟年份產生大約5 個點的影響。因此,雖然比 35% 有所下降,但仍然是一個健康的水平,根據當前的建築成本約為 30%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The final question we have comes from Simeon Gutman of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • I want to go back to the ticket size. I know it's a bit of an enigma to look at same SKU inflation for your business. Is there a best guess on what that may be doing to the basket size versus we're putting fewer items in the basket or if there's some trade down happening? And then I'll just put the follow-up in here, given the interest of time. Charles gave us some numbers on the fourth quarter and the first quarter, commission sharing. I think you've disclosed the second and third or they're in the filings, but if you can just give us that one more time because there's going to be a pretty meaningful inflection in the composition of the P&L during the year.

    我想回到票的大小。我知道為您的企業查看相同的 SKU 通膨有點令人費解。與我們在購物籃中放入較少的商品相比,這可能會對購物籃的大小產生什麼影響,或者是否會發生一些交易下降,是否有最好的猜測?考慮到時間的關係,我會把後續內容放在這裡。查爾斯給了我們一些第四季和第一季的佣金分配資料。我認為你已經披露了第二個和第三個,或者它們在文件中,但如果你能再給我們一次時間,因為這一年損益表的構成將會出現相當有意義的變化。

  • Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

    Charles C. Bracher - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Let me just start with Simeon, the basket. And so you can think about within the basket, again, not directly comparable for us. We always talk about our model mutes the impact of the inflation on the way up and deflation on the way down, but we are -- we continue to see slightly higher average unit retails. That's being offset by fewer items in the basket. Again, as trip frequency has increased as well as had a bit of an impact from the system transition. Just to reiterate the numbers I provided with respect to the system EBITDA impact for Q4 and Q1. I'll give you both numbers. So you have them again.

    是的。讓我從西蒙,籃下開始。所以你可以再考慮一下籃子內的情況,這對我們來說不能直接比較。我們總是談論我們的模型消除了通膨上升和通縮下降的影響,但我們仍然看到平均零售量略有上升。這被購物籃中較少的商品所抵消。同樣,由於跳閘頻率增加,並且系統轉型產生了一些影響。只是重申我提供的第四季度和第一季系統 EBITDA 影響的數字。我會給你兩個號碼。所以你又擁有它們了。

  • For the fourth quarter, total EBITDA impact roughly $20 million, about half of which is IO commission support. So as you look in the Qs and the Ks, you can -- you'll see that number as it relates to kind of the anomaly and commission trend. And the balance, again, the combination of sales impact and gross margin impact. For the first quarter, we're seeing the monthly trend come down in terms of the impact. We expect the full first quarter EBITDA headwind to be roughly $14 million. Again, half of that being IO commission and sales and margin being the balance.

    第四季的 EBITDA 總額約為 2,000 萬美元,其中約一半來自 IO 佣金支持。因此,當您查看 Q 和 K 時,您會看到該數字,因為它與異常和佣金趨勢有關。再一次,平衡是銷售影響和毛利率影響的結合。對於第一季度,我們看到月度趨勢在影響方面有所下降。我們預計第一季 EBITDA 的整體逆風約為 1,400 萬美元。同樣,其中一半是 IO 佣金,銷售額和利潤是餘額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And I would like to turn the call back to RJ Sheedy for closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

    女士們先生們,我們的問答環節已經結束了。我想將電話轉回給 RJ Sheedy,讓其致閉幕詞。請繼續,先生。

  • Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

    Robert Joseph Sheedy - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, everyone, for your time today, and we look forward to talking with you again on future calls. Appreciate it. Take care.

    謝謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間,我們期待在以後的通話中再次與您交談。欣賞它。小心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。現在您可以斷開線路。