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Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2021 Generac Holdings Incorporated Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)
美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎來到 2021 年第三季度 Generac Holdings Incorporated 收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。 (操作員說明)
With that, I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael Harris, VP Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Thank you, and please go ahead.
有了這個,我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者,邁克爾哈里斯,企業發展和投資者關係副總裁。謝謝,請繼續。
Michael W. Harris - VP of Corporate Development & IR
Michael W. Harris - VP of Corporate Development & IR
Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2021 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer.
早上好,歡迎來到我們的 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Aaron Jagdfeld;和首席財務官 York Ragen。
We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements. Certain statements made during this presentation as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements. Please see our earnings release or SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors.
我們今天將通過評論前瞻性陳述開始我們的電話會議。本演示文稿中的某些陳述以及 Generac 或其員工不時提供的其他信息可能包含前瞻性陳述,並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。請參閱我們的收益發布或 SEC 文件,以獲取識別此類陳述和相關風險因素的詞語或表達方式列表。
In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable U.S. GAAP measures, is available in our earnings release or SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Aaron.
此外,我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計原則的措施。有關這些措施的更多信息,包括與可比較的美國公認會計原則措施的對賬,請參閱我們的收益發布或 SEC 文件。我現在將把電話轉給 Aaron。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We experienced another quarter of exceptional demand as interest in our home standby generators, clean energy systems and C&I products remained incredibly strong. Production levels were also the highest we have ever experienced in the quarter, with shipments of home standby generators increasing at a substantial rate over the prior year as we continue to ramp output at our new facility in Trenton, South Carolina. This led to record revenue growth of 34% in spite of significant operational obstacles faced across the supply chain environment that deteriorated further during the third quarter.
謝謝,邁克。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們。由於對我們的家用備用發電機、清潔能源系統和 C&I 產品的興趣仍然非常強勁,我們又經歷了四分之一的特殊需求。生產水平也是我們在本季度經歷的最高水平,隨著我們在南卡羅來納州特倫頓的新工廠繼續提高產量,家用備用發電機的出貨量比上一年大幅增長。儘管整個供應鏈環境面臨著嚴重的運營障礙,但在第三季度進一步惡化,這導致了創紀錄的 34% 的收入增長。
Even with the higher output levels, demand remained very strong and broad-based leading to higher backlog levels, particularly for home standby generators, providing us with good visibility into significant revenue growth for 2022. Additionally, we recently announced several strategic acquisitions that will accelerate our new Powering a Smarter World strategy and provide additional avenues for growth as we continue our evolution into an energy technology solutions company.
即使產量水平較高,需求仍然非常強勁且基礎廣泛,導致積壓水平較高,特別是對於家用備用發電機,這使我們對 2022 年的顯著收入增長有很好的了解。此外,我們最近宣布了幾項戰略收購,這將加速我們新的 Powering a Smarter World 戰略,並在我們繼續向能源技術解決方案公司發展的過程中提供更多的增長途徑。
Year-over-year, overall net sales increased 34% to $943 million, an all-time record and also increased sequentially relative to the second quarter, which was the previous all-time record. The growth in the quarter was driven by strength in both residential and C&I products as compared to the prior year.
與去年同期相比,整體淨銷售額增長 34% 至 9.43 億美元,創下歷史新高,並且與第二季度相比也環比增長,後者是之前的歷史最高紀錄。本季度的增長是由住宅和工商業產品與上一年相比的強勁推動的。
Residential product growth was led by a 50% increase in shipments of home standby generators as production levels continue to increase significantly relative to prior year levels as well as tremendous year-over-year growth in shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems, which also grew double digits on a sequential basis.
住宅產品的增長是由家用備用發電機的出貨量增長 50% 帶動的,因為生產水平相對於去年水平繼續顯著增長,以及 PWRcell 儲能係統的出貨量同比大幅增長,也增長了一倍數字按順序排列。
Shipments of C&I products were also up dramatically in the quarter with revenue of these products now growing materially above 2019 levels due to strength across a number of end markets and geographies. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 22.2% were lower as compared to the prior year as they were unfavorably impacted by higher logistics and commodity costs.
C&I 產品的出貨量在本季度也大幅增長,由於多個終端市場和地區的實力,這些產品的收入現在大幅增長高於 2019 年的水平。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.2%,低於上一年,因為受到物流和商品成本上漲的不利影響。
In response to the escalating costs we are experiencing, we have undertaken a number of additional pricing actions and cost reduction initiatives to mitigate the longer-term impact to margins.
為了應對我們正在經歷的不斷上升的成本,我們採取了一些額外的定價行動和降低成本的舉措,以減輕對利潤率的長期影響。
Now discussing our third quarter results in more detail. The megatrends driving consumer interest in backup power continued in the third quarter. Most notably, the Home as a Sanctuary trend, combined with more extreme weather, which again resulted in elevated power outage activity. Overall, baseline outage activity for the trailing 4 quarters grew on a year-over-year basis in the quarter despite a very strong prior year comparison and remains well above the long-term baseline average.
現在更詳細地討論我們的第三季度業績。第三季度繼續推動消費者對備用電源產生興趣的大趨勢。最值得注意的是,家庭作為避難所的趨勢,再加上更極端的天氣,再次導致停電活動增加。總體而言,儘管與去年同期相比非常強勁,但該季度過去 4 個季度的基準中斷活動仍同比增長,並且仍遠高於長期基準平均水平。
In fact, since we began tracking the impact of outage activity more than a decade ago, 4 of the top 10 power outage severity quarters have occurred since the second half of last year. The convergence of the heightened power outage activity broader electrification trends and people spending more time at home has driven unprecedented demand for home standby generators.
事實上,自從十多年前我們開始跟踪停電活動的影響以來,前 10 個最嚴重的停電季度中有 4 個發生在去年下半年以來。停電活動加劇和更廣泛的電氣化趨勢以及人們在家里花費更多時間的融合推動了對家用備用發電機的空前需求。
As a result, home consultations or sales leads, increased again at a strong double-digit rate in the third quarter over the robust prior year comparison, and broad-based growth continues to be experienced as almost all U.S. regions grew on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter. It's also relevant to note that home consultations in the third quarter increased over 3x the comparable 2019 levels, and on a year-to-date basis more than 4x 2019 levels.
因此,與去年同期相比,家庭諮詢或銷售線索在第三季度再次以兩位數的強勁增長,並且隨著幾乎所有美國地區的同比增長,基礎廣泛的增長繼續出現- 以第三季度為基礎。還需要注意的是,第三季度的家庭諮詢增加了 2019 年可比水平的 3 倍以上,並且在今年迄今為止的基礎上超過 2019 年的 4 倍。
Activations of home standby generators, which are a proxy for installations, also grew at a double-digit rate compared to the prior year. We continue to experience a strong expansion of our distribution footprint as we ended the third quarter with approximately 8,100 residential dealers, an increase of 1,100 dealers over the last 12 months. California and Texas alone continue to account for nearly 1/3 of the year-over-year increase.
與上一年相比,家庭備用發電機的激活量也以兩位數的速度增長。隨著我們在第三季度結束時擁有約 8,100 家住宅經銷商,我們的分銷足跡繼續強勁擴張,在過去 12 個月中增加了 1,100 家經銷商。僅加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州就繼續占同比增長的近 1/3。
Early in the third quarter, we achieved a significant milestone by starting production of home standby generators at our new facility in Trenton, South Carolina. We continue to make encouraging progress increasing production levels for home standby generators across our operating footprint with daily build rates much higher compared to prior year levels.
在第三季度初,我們在位於南卡羅來納州特倫頓的新工廠開始生產家用備用發電機,實現了一個重要的里程碑。我們繼續取得令人鼓舞的進展,在我們的運營範圍內提高家用備用發電機的生產水平,與去年的水平相比,每日建造率要高得多。
Despite the higher output, demand for home standby generators continues to outpace our ability to produce them, which has caused lead times to further grow to approximately 30 weeks. These significant lead times provide excellent visibility as we head into 2022, with our home standby backlog projected to be well over $1 billion entering the next year.
儘管產量更高,但對家用備用發電機的需求繼續超過我們的生產能力,這導致交貨時間進一步增長到大約 30 週。這些重要的交貨時間為我們進入 2022 年提供了極好的可見性,我們的家庭備用積壓預計將超過 10 億美元進入明年。
As we consider the longer-term capacity requirements for home standby production, we have made a number of strategic decisions to further expand our footprint. Yesterday, we announced plans to expand warehousing and distribution capacity at our Trenton facility by adding 200,000 square feet, which will increase the current size of the building by nearly 50%.
當我們考慮家庭備用生產的長期產能需求時,我們已經做出了一些戰略決策來進一步擴大我們的足跡。昨天,我們宣布計劃通過增加 200,000 平方英尺來擴大我們特倫頓工廠的倉儲和配送能力,這將使建築物的當前規模增加近 50%。
In addition, we recently made commitments to purchase additional long lead time automated manufacturing equipment that would be available to come online in 2023, further increasing our capacity for several key components to provide for needed search production as the category continues to grow. In addition to these capacity expansion actions, last week, we introduced the industry's largest air-cooled home standby generator, our new 26-kilowatt unit.
此外,我們最近承諾購買額外的長交貨期自動化製造設備,這些設備將於 2023 年上線,隨著該類別的持續增長,進一步提高我們的幾個關鍵組件的能力,以提供所需的搜索生產。除了這些產能擴張行動之外,我們上週還推出了業界最大的風冷家用備用發電機,即我們新的 26 千瓦機組。
Building upon the success of the launch of our 24-kilowatt unit last year, the new 26-kilowatt unit will allow homeowners to access the kind of power only previously available in larger sized, liquid cool generators at a significantly lower cost. As the trend to decarbonize accelerates, the electrification of everything in the home, including heating, cooking, cleaning and ultimately, transportation will lead to much greater residential electricity consumption.
在我們去年成功推出 24 千瓦機組的基礎上,新的 26 千瓦機組將使房主能夠以顯著降低的成本獲得以前只能在更大尺寸的液冷發電機中獲得的那種電力。隨著脫碳趨勢的加速,家庭中一切事物的電氣化,包括供暖、烹飪、清潔以及最終的交通,將導致住宅用電量大得多。
The new 26-kilowatt home standby unit will be capable of providing the kind of resiliency needed with these larger electrical loads and will provide an ability to future proof of home as these electrification trends intensify in the years ahead. With the strong outage environment and mega trends like Home as a Sanctuary underpinning tremendous demand for home standby generators, those same factors, along with the increasing penetration of solar installations are also driving rapid growth for our clean energy product offering. As previously mentioned, shipments of our power cell energy storage systems grew significantly as compared to the prior year and also grew at a double-digit rate sequentially.
新的 26 千瓦家用備用裝置將能夠提供這些較大電力負載所需的彈性,並且隨著這些電氣化趨勢在未來幾年的加劇,將提供未來家庭驗證的能力。隨著強大的停電環境和像“家庭庇護所”這樣的大趨勢支撐了對家庭備用發電機的巨大需求,這些相同的因素以及太陽能裝置的日益普及也推動了我們的清潔能源產品供應的快速增長。如前所述,我們的動力電池儲能係統的出貨量與去年相比增長顯著,並且環比也以兩位數的速度增長。
Despite numerous supply chain challenges also impacting clean energy products, we continue to experience growth well above the broader U.S. residential solar market, driven by ongoing increases in storage attachment rates and continued market share gains. In addition to strong revenue growth, key performance indicators for clean energy products continue to show favorable trends. Home consultations expanded as compared to the prior year and accelerated throughout the quarter.
儘管許多供應鏈挑戰也影響到清潔能源產品,但在存儲附件率持續增長和市場份額持續增長的推動下,我們繼續經歷遠高於更廣泛的美國住宅太陽能市場的增長。除了強勁的收入增長外,清潔能源產品的關鍵績效指標繼續呈現良好趨勢。與上一年相比,家庭諮詢有所增加,並在整個季度加速。
System activations, which are a proxy for installations and commissioning, more than doubled in the third quarter as compared to the prior year and also increased sequentially. In addition, we further built out our installer network as we entered the third quarter with approximately 2,300 trained and certified dealers with nearly 1,000 of those dealers registered on our PowerPlay CE sales platform.
代表安裝和調試的系統激活在第三季度比去年同期增長了一倍多,並且環比增長。此外,隨著我們進入第三季度,我們進一步建立了我們的安裝網絡,擁有大約 2,300 名經過培訓和認證的經銷商,其中近 1,000 名經銷商在我們的 PowerPlay CE 銷售平台上註冊。
Despite the industry-wide supply chain and logistics challenges, we expect clean energy revenues to approximately double for full year 2021 on a year-over-year basis. In addition, we continue to drive profitable growth within the product category as we scale volumes and optimize the supply chain.
儘管整個行業的供應鍊和物流都面臨挑戰,但我們預計 2021 年全年清潔能源收入將同比增長約一倍。此外,隨著我們擴大產量和優化供應鏈,我們將繼續推動產品類別的盈利增長。
Building on the early success we've experienced with our clean energy product offering, we formally announced several exciting new clean energy-related products during the third quarter that we believe will further grow our competitive advantage in this exciting new market. We introduced the industry's first purpose-built dedicated battery charging generator during the quarter, the power generator, which is a one-of-a-kind power product, enabling a homeowner to create a solar plus storage system that is completely grid-independent.
基於我們在清潔能源產品供應方面取得的早期成功,我們在第三季度正式宣布了幾款令人興奮的新清潔能源相關產品,我們相信這些產品將進一步增強我們在這個令人興奮的新市場中的競爭優勢。我們在本季度推出了業界首款專用電池充電發電機,這是一種獨一無二的電力產品,使房主能夠創建一個完全獨立於電網的太陽能+存儲系統。
We also introduced our new PWRmanager load control system that maximizes battery performance and offers homeowners the ability to control specific electric loads from a mobile device via our existing PWRview energy monitoring platform. And building off the early integration success with the recent Chilicon acquisition, we introduced the PWRmicro, a Generac-branded microinverter that allows us to fully participate in the residential solar only market, a meaningful expansion beyond the solar plus storage space we previously addressed.
我們還推出了新的 PWRmanager 負載控制系統,該系統可最大限度地提高電池性能,並使房主能夠通過我們現有的 PWRview 能源監控平台從移動設備控制特定的電力負載。在最近收購 Chilicon 的早期整合成功的基礎上,我們推出了 PWRmicro,這是一種 Generac 品牌的微型逆變器,使我們能夠充分參與住宅太陽能市場,這是我們之前提到的太陽能加存儲空間之外的有意義的擴展。
In another example of our focus on continued innovation, we announced the acquisition of Apricity, an advanced engineering and product design company focused on developing energy technology solutions. The team at Apricity brings expertise in designing and prototyping energy-related products to increase reliability, add functionality and improve performance.
在我們專注於持續創新的另一個例子中,我們宣布收購 Apricity,這是一家專注於開發能源技術解決方案的先進工程和產品設計公司。 Apricity 的團隊帶來了設計和原型設計能源相關產品的專業知識,以提高可靠性、增加功能和提高性能。
The company has also developed a unique smart water heater controller that is used as a grid edge device by utilities and demand response and other energy conservation programs. Bringing this talented group on board will accelerate our efforts in expanding our clean energy offerings and increase our speed to market for key clean energy and grid services products and solutions.
該公司還開發了一種獨特的智能熱水器控制器,用作公用事業和需求響應以及其他節能計劃的電網邊緣設備。讓這個才華橫溢的團隊加入將加快我們在擴大清潔能源產品方面的努力,並加快我們將關鍵清潔能源和電網服務產品和解決方案推向市場的速度。
To further build upon Generac's evolution into an energy technology solutions company, yesterday, we announced an exciting agreement to acquire ecobee, which accelerates our capability to provide a home energy ecosystem with a dual-value proposition for both homeowners and grid operators, ecobee is a pioneer in the smart thermostat market, and offers a full line of intelligent thermostats and home monitoring products that deliver significant energy savings, security and peace of mind and enable the monitoring and control of a significant portion of the home's electrical loads. Residential HVAC systems represent the single largest energy-consuming device in the home today, and ecobee has created an intelligent system using smart thermostats and sensors to effectively balance comfort and conservation.
為了進一步鞏固 Generac 向能源技術解決方案公司的發展,昨天,我們宣布了一項令人興奮的收購 ecobee 的協議,這加快了我們為房主和電網運營商提供具有雙重價值主張的家庭能源生態系統的能力,ecobee 是智能恆溫器市場的先驅,並提供全系列的智能恆溫器和家庭監控產品,可顯著節省能源、提高安全性並讓您高枕無憂,並能夠監控和控制大部分家庭用電負載。住宅 HVAC 系統是當今家庭中最大的單一能耗設備,ecobee 使用智能恆溫器和傳感器創建了一個智能係統,以有效平衡舒適度和節能性。
With over 5 million connected devices in more than 2 million homes, ecobee customers in North America have saved more than 20 terawatts of energy, which is the equivalent of saving enough energy to take all the homes in Los Angeles off the grid for an entire year.
在超過 200 萬戶家庭中擁有超過 500 萬台聯網設備,北美的 ecobee 客戶節省了超過 20 太瓦的能源,這相當於節省的能源足以讓洛杉磯的所有家庭停電一整年.
Importantly, ecobee adds to Generac's growing suite of residential power generation, energy storage and energy management solutions that we believe will play a pivotal role in helping to solve the challenges of the growing supply and demand imbalances of today's electrical grid.
重要的是,ecobee 增加了 Generac 不斷增長的住宅發電、儲能和能源管理解決方案套件,我們相信這些解決方案將在幫助解決當今電網日益嚴重的供需失衡挑戰方面發揮關鍵作用。
Smart thermostat controls represent one of the largest opportunities within the grid services' addressable market, involving the connection of grid edge devices to a grid services platform like our Concerto software platform, thereby enabling participation in grid services programs.
智能恆溫器控制代表了電網服務潛在市場中最大的機會之一,涉及將電網邊緣設備連接到像我們的 Concerto 軟件平台這樣的電網服務平台,從而能夠參與電網服務計劃。
Adding ecobee's devices to our product portfolio considerably expands our served market opportunity and increases our capabilities to provide end-to-end solutions for turnkey virtual power plant projects. Adding ecobee's innovative team of over 500 employees gives us the ability to further advance the development of an intelligent and intuitive user interface platform that would integrate and synchronize our generation and storage equipment and our existing Grid Edge devices providing seamless access and control for homeowners through a smartphone, tablet or PC.
將 ecobee 的設備添加到我們的產品組合中,極大地擴展了我們所服務的市場機會,並提高了我們為交鑰匙虛擬電廠項目提供端到端解決方案的能力。增加 ecobee 的 500 多名員工的創新團隊使我們能夠進一步推進智能和直觀用戶界面平台的開發,該平台將集成和同步我們的發電和存儲設備以及我們現有的 Grid Edge 設備,通過智能手機、平板電腦或個人電腦。
We believe this approach will create one of the broadest home energy ecosystems available on the market today and allow for easy connection to our Concerto platform empowering homeowners to make smarter energy production, storage and consumption decisions while providing grid operators more efficient access to the home in aggregate or at the device level for grid support programs.
我們相信這種方法將創建當今市場上最廣泛的家庭能源生態系統之一,並允許輕鬆連接到我們的 Concerto 平台,使房主能夠做出更智能的能源生產、存儲和消費決策,同時為電網運營商提供更有效的家庭接入聚合或在網格支持程序的設備級別。
I'd also like to provide a brief update on Generac Grid Services, a new group within Generac that was formed in the third quarter that builds upon our October 2020 acquisition of Enbala Power Networks. Generic Grid Services was established to directly engage and serve utilities, energy retailers and grid operators to provide an array of solutions and enable entirely new value streams that leverage a range of products from our portfolio.
我還想提供有關 Generac Grid Services 的簡要更新,這是 Generac 內的一個新集團,它是在我們 2020 年 10 月收購 Enbala Power Networks 的基礎上於第三季度成立的。 Generic Grid Services 的成立旨在直接與公用事業、能源零售商和電網運營商合作並為其提供服務,以提供一系列解決方案,並利用我們產品組合中的一系列產品實現全新的價值流。
We took another major step toward unlocking significant value in the grid services space in the third quarter with the formal announcement of smart grid ready capabilities across our home standby generators, our C&I natural gas generators and our PWRcell energy storage systems.
我們在第三季度向釋放電網服務領域的重要價值邁出了重要一步,正式宣布了我們的家用備用發電機、工商業天然氣發電機和 PWRcell 儲能係統的智能電網就緒能力。
In addition to the peace of mind that they're receiving from Generac products, customers now have the opportunity to also obtain additional return on investment by leveraging their products to support grid reliability, resiliency and sustainability. Within the expanding grid services marketplace, we believe Generac Grid Services is a unique and differentiated market leader due to our comprehensive set of hardware plus software plus services offerings, including through our smart grid ready capabilities for legacy products, our recent acquisition of Apricity smart water heater controllers and our pending acquisition of ecobee and its home energy management solutions.
除了從 Generac 產品中獲得的安心之外,客戶現在還有機會通過利用其產品支持電網可靠性、彈性和可持續性來獲得額外的投資回報。在不斷擴大的電網服務市場中,我們相信 Generac Grid Services 是一個獨特和差異化的市場領導者,因為我們提供了一套全面的硬件、軟件和服務產品,包括通過我們為傳統產品提供智能電網的能力,我們最近收購了 Apricity 智能水加熱器控制器和我們即將收購的 ecobee 及其家庭能源管理解決方案。
Our increasing integration of hardware with grid software and services is leading to a number of contract wins, along with a significant increase in proposal requests and an overall expanding sales pipeline. These include several examples of the new revenue streams within our grid services model as we layer on higher-value turnkey virtual power plant programs utilizing Generac hardware and performance contracts on top of the Concerto software as a Service platform.
我們日益增加的硬件與網格軟件和服務的集成導致了許多合同的贏得,同時提案請求的顯著增加和整體擴展的銷售渠道。其中包括我們的電網服務模型中新收入流的幾個示例,因為我們在 Concerto 軟件即服務平台之上利用 Generac 硬件和性能合同對更高價值的交鑰匙虛擬電廠計劃進行分層。
We are in the very early innings of the evolution of the power grid. But as consumer awareness grows and demand from utilities and grid operators materializes, we remain incredibly excited about the potential long-term growth trajectory of Generac Grid Services. The excitement around our expanding energy technology solution capabilities extends into the C&I product range as well.
我們正處於電網發展的早期階段。但隨著消費者意識的提高以及公用事業和電網運營商的需求實現,我們仍然對 Generac Grid Services 的潛在長期增長軌跡感到非常興奮。圍繞我們不斷擴大的能源技術解決方案能力的興奮也延伸到了 C&I 產品範圍。
We're offerings such as energy-as-a-service, microgrid solutions and mobile energy storage systems are helping drive the long-term growth trajectory and an increasing mix of energy technology revenues.
我們提供的能源即服務、微電網解決方案和移動儲能係統等產品正在幫助推動長期增長軌跡和不斷增加的能源技術收入組合。
Our core C&I business experienced strong momentum in the third quarter as a number of end markets and geographies continue to recover strongly off the COVID weakened prior year quarter. Specifically, C&I product sales grew 47% as compared to the prior year, and 31% on a core basis. We also have a considerable backlog that is growing for C&I products that provides good visibility for meaningful growth heading into 2022.
我們的核心 C&I 業務在第三季度經歷了強勁的增長勢頭,因為許多終端市場和地區繼續在 COVID 減弱的上一季度強勁復甦。具體而言,工商業產品銷售額同比增長 47%,核心增長 31%。我們還有大量積壓的 C&I 產品正在增長,這些產品為進入 2022 年的有意義的增長提供了良好的可見性。
In addition to strong quoting and order activity in our North American distributor channel, shipments to telecom national account customers increased dramatically again during the quarter as compared to the prior year as capital spending by several of our larger telecom customers continued at elevated levels and have led to further increase in project shipments during the current year.
除了我們北美分銷商渠道的強勁報價和訂單活動外,本季度向電信國民賬戶客戶的出貨量與去年相比再次大幅增加,因為我們的幾個大型電信客戶的資本支出繼續保持較高水平並引領進一步增加本年度的項目出貨量。
The catalyst for the additional spending on backup power in this important vertical continues to be driven by an elevated power outage environment over the last several years, the power security mandate in California requiring a minimum of 72 hours of backup power at all tower locations and the build-out of wireless carriers' 5G networks.
在這個重要的垂直領域增加備用電源支出的催化劑繼續受到過去幾年停電環境升高的推動,加利福尼亞的電力安全要求要求所有塔位置至少有 72 小時的備用電源,以及建設無線運營商的 5G 網絡。
The long-term demand outlook for telecom backup power remains very compelling driven by the increasingly critical nature of wireless communications. We also experienced very strong growth within our national account -- national rental account customers as shipments of mobile products continue to recover at a significant rate of the COVID-driven lows of 2020.
在無線通信日益關鍵的性質的推動下,電信備用電源的長期需求前景仍然非常引人注目。我們的國民賬戶也經歷了非常強勁的增長——國民租賃賬戶客戶,因為移動產品的出貨量繼續以 COVID 驅動的 2020 年低點的顯著速度恢復。
We still expect shipments of mobile products to improve dramatically for the full year 2021 as the prior year -- as national rental account customers invest heavily in fleet equipment with utilization and rental rates continuing to improve. We remain optimistic about the long-term demand outlook for mobile products given the important mega trend around the critical need for infrastructure improvements, which could benefit from the potential economic stimulus plans being pursued through the federal infrastructure spending bill.
我們仍然預計 2021 年全年移動產品的出貨量將與上一年一樣顯著提高——因為國家租賃賬戶客戶大量投資於車隊設備,利用率和租金率繼續提高。鑑於圍繞改善基礎設施的迫切需求的重要大趨勢,我們仍然對移動產品的長期需求前景持樂觀態度,這可能受益於通過聯邦基礎設施支出法案實施的潛在經濟刺激計劃。
Additionally, we continue to build great momentum with our C&I beyond standby initiatives. We are experiencing ongoing strength in project quoting for our natural gas generators using applications beyond traditional emergency standby power generation, such as their use in energy-as-a-service, microgrid solutions and other distributed generation applications.
此外,我們繼續通過我們的 C&I 超越待機計劃來建立良好的勢頭。我們的天然氣發電機在項目報價方面的實力不斷增強,這些發電機使用傳統應急備用發電以外的應用,例如在能源即服務、微電網解決方案和其他分佈式發電應用中的使用。
During the third quarter, we announced a 5-year agreement with Enchanted Rock to build and supply the advanced natural gas generators and control systems that are used in ultra-low emission, dual-purpose microgrids that Enchanted Rock designs and operates. These solutions provide commercial, industrial and governmental customers with affordable and reliable backup power and supply electric grid operators with critical grid stability services that accelerate the adoption of wind and solar without sacrificing overall grid reliability.
在第三季度,我們宣布與 Enchanted Rock 簽訂一項為期 5 年的協議,以建造和供應先進的天然氣發電機和控制系統,這些發電機和控制系統用於 Enchanted Rock 設計和運營的超低排放、兩用微電網。這些解決方案為商業、工業和政府客戶提供負擔得起且可靠的備用電源,並為電網運營商提供關鍵的電網穩定性服務,從而在不犧牲整體電網可靠性的情況下加速風能和太陽能的採用。
The microgrid solutions are based on Generac's rich-burn gaseous engine technology and our newly acquired Deep Sea Electronics' control systems, which provides quick start, utility-grade backup power in a much cleaner format when compared to traditional diesel generator solutions.
微電網解決方案基於 Generac 的富燃燃氣發動機技術和我們新收購的 Deep Sea Electronics 控制系統,與傳統柴油發電機解決方案相比,它以更清潔的形式提供快速啟動的公用事業級備用電源。
We remain very optimistic regarding customer and grid operator interest in beyond standby applications, of our C&I natural gas generators. It's being driven by the need for enhanced grid stability and resiliency that these large blocks of power can offer as well as the tangible and meaningful return on the investment opportunity for asset owners.
對於客戶和電網運營商對我們的工商業天然氣發電機的備用應用的興趣,我們仍然非常樂觀。這些大型電力塊可以提供的增強電網穩定性和彈性的需求以及為資產所有者的投資機會帶來有形和有意義的回報的需求推動了它的發展。
Our international business continues to see strong momentum as well with net sales growth of 61% on a year-over-year basis during the third quarter and 32% core net sales growth when excluding the benefit of the Deep Sea and Off Grid Energy acquisitions, and the impact of favorable foreign currency. The core sales growth was driven by strength across all major regions that continue to experience a sharp increase in demand off the prior year COVID lows and have also recovered well above 2019 levels.
我們的國際業務繼續保持強勁勢頭,第三季度淨銷售額同比增長 61%,扣除深海和離網能源收購的好處後,核心淨銷售額增長 32%,以及有利外幣的影響。核心銷售增長是由所有主要地區的強勁推動的,這些地區的需求繼續從去年的 COVID 低點急劇增加,並且也恢復到遠高於 2019 年的水平。
Larger project quoting and overall order activity continued to recover at a strong pace in key international markets, which drove growth in our international backlog during the third quarter with the order strength continuing thus far in the fourth quarter.
在主要國際市場,較大的項目報價和整體訂單活動繼續以強勁的速度恢復,這推動了我們第三季度國際積壓訂單的增長,而第四季度迄今為止的訂單強勁。
In addition, the segment's third quarter EBITDA margin expanded to 14.1% from 7.9% in the year ago period due to the higher margin profile impact from the Deep Sea and Off Grid Energy acquisitions and improved operating leverage in the base business on higher sales volumes.
此外,由於深海和離網能源收購對利潤率的影響以及基礎業務因銷量增加而提高的經營槓桿,該部門第三季度的 EBITDA 利潤率從去年同期的 7.9% 擴大至 14.1%。
With regards to Off Grid Energy, this acquisition closed on September 1 and brings a diverse range of energy storage solutions that provide cleaner and more flexible energy for industrial and mobile applications. Off Grid provides us an entry point into the rapidly growing market for industrial grade energy storage systems and accelerates our hybrid generator and C&I energy storage product road map.
關於離網能源,此次收購於 9 月 1 日結束,並帶來了多樣化的儲能解決方案,為工業和移動應用提供更清潔、更靈活的能源。 Off Grid 為我們提供了進入快速增長的工業級儲能係統市場的切入點,並加速了我們的混合發電機和工商業儲能產品路線圖。
Off Grid continues to see robust demand for its products in its core European markets, and we're working to bring these solutions to the rest of our geographic footprint given our strong global relationships with rental equipment customers. Our integration efforts are off to a strong start with some legacy customers across Europe having already placed orders for Off Grid products, highlighting early momentum in the sales synergies that we expect to realize.
Off Grid 在其核心歐洲市場繼續看到對其產品的強勁需求,鑑於我們與租賃設備客戶的牢固全球關係,我們正在努力將這些解決方案帶到我們的其他地理足跡。我們的整合工作有了一個良好的開端,歐洲的一些老客戶已經訂購了離網產品,突顯了我們期望實現的銷售協同效應的早期勢頭。
In closing today, we have tremendous momentum in our business as we close out the current year and head into 2022 with incredible home standby demand and expanding energy technology solutions portfolio, a growing grid services sales pipeline and strong global demand for our C&I products. This provides support for yet another year of significant revenue growth with recent pricing and cost initiatives driving an improving margin profile.
在今天結束時,我們的業務發展勢頭強勁,因為我們在今年結束並進入 2022 年,令人難以置信的家庭備用需求和不斷擴大的能源技術解決方案組合、不斷增長的電網服務銷售渠道以及對我們 C&I 產品的強勁全球需求。這為又一年的顯著收入增長提供了支持,最近的定價和成本舉措推動了利潤率的改善。
Day-to-day execution and navigation of the supply chain challenges clearly remains a near-term priority for our teams. But we're also keeping a clear focus on our new long-term Powering a Smarter World strategy with our ultimate purpose to lead the evolution to a more resilient, efficient and sustainable energy solutions. Through the combination of aggressive organic investment and a series of strategic acquisitions over the past 3 years, Generac is uniquely positioned with our products, our services, our distribution, our brand and importantly, our expertise to deliver the solutions necessary to facilitate the transition to the next-generation electrical grid.
供應鏈挑戰的日常執行和導航顯然仍然是我們團隊近期的優先事項。但我們也明確關注我們新的長期推動智慧世界戰略,我們的最終目標是引領向更具彈性、高效和可持續的能源解決方案的演變。通過在過去 3 年中積極的有機投資和一系列戰略收購,Generac 在我們的產品、服務、分銷、品牌以及重要的是,我們的專業知識具有獨特的定位,可以提供必要的解決方案以促進向下一代電網。
Importantly, we retain significant financial flexibility to further invest and expand our capabilities and continue to advance our evolution into an energy technology solutions company.
重要的是,我們保留了顯著的財務靈活性,以進一步投資和擴展我們的能力,並繼續推進我們向能源技術解決方案公司的發展。
I'd now like to turn the call over to York to provide further details on third quarter results and our updated outlook. York?
我現在想將電話轉給約克,以提供有關第三季度業績和我們最新展望的更多詳細信息。約克?
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
Thanks, Aaron. Looking at third quarter 2021 results in more detail. Net sales increased 34% to $942.7 million during the third quarter of 2021, an all-time record, as compared to $701.4 million in the prior year third quarter. The combination of contributions from the Mean Green, Enbala, Deep Sea, Chilicon and Off Grid acquisitions and the favorable impact from foreign currency had an approximate 4% impact on revenue growth during the quarter.
謝謝,亞倫。更詳細地查看 2021 年第三季度的結果。與去年第三季度的 7.014 億美元相比,2021 年第三季度的淨銷售額增長 34% 至 9.427 億美元,創歷史新高。 Mean Green、Enbala、Deep Sea、Chilicon 和 Off Grid 收購的貢獻以及外彙的有利影響對本季度的收入增長產生了約 4% 的影響。
Briefly looking at consolidated net sales for the third quarter by product class, residential product sales grew to $608.8 million as compared to $458.9 million in the prior year, representing a 33% increase despite a strong prior year comparable.
簡而言之,按產品類別劃分的第三季度綜合淨銷售額增長至 6.088 億美元,而去年同期為 4.589 億美元,儘管去年可比強勁,但仍增長 33%。
As Aaron already discussed in detail, home standby generator sales continue to experience robust year-over-year growth advancing by 50% during the third quarter as we made further progress increasing production levels for these products despite challenging supply chain headwinds. Shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems grew at a significant rate as compared to the prior year as storage attachment rates and market share gains continue to drive growth of Generac's clean energy solutions. This growth was partially offset by a decline in shipments of portable generators, which faced a strong prior year comparison from a record level of shipments to the Hurricane Isaias the prior year.
正如 Aaron 已經詳細討論的那樣,儘管供應鏈面臨挑戰,但由於我們在提高這些產品的生產水平方面取得了進一步進展,第三季度家用備用發電機的銷售額繼續保持強勁的同比增長 50%。與上一年相比,PWRcell 儲能係統的出貨量大幅增長,因為存儲附件率和市場份額增長繼續推動 Generac 清潔能源解決方案的增長。這一增長被便攜式發電機出貨量的下降部分抵消,與前一年伊薩亞斯颶風的創紀錄出貨量相比,便攜式發電機的出貨量與前一年相比強勁。
Commercial and industrial product net sales for the third quarter of 2021 increased 47% to $258.3 million as compared to $176.2 million in the prior year quarter. There was an approximate 15% benefit to net sales during the quarter from the impact of the Deep Sea and Off Grid acquisitions along with the favorable foreign currency. The very strong core revenue growth was in part aided by the soft prior year comparison due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
與去年同期的 1.762 億美元相比,2021 年第三季度的工商業產品淨銷售額增長 47% 至 2.583 億美元。受深海和離網收購的影響以及有利的外匯影響,本季度的淨銷售額約為 15%。由於 COVID-19 大流行,去年同期比較疲軟,部分有助於核心收入增長非常強勁。
However, C&I revenue also grew approximately 7% on a core basis as compared to 2019 levels. The strength in core sales was driven by growth across a number of end markets and geographies as demand is recovering at a strong rate, both domestically and internationally in the following areas.
然而,與 2019 年的水平相比,C&I 收入在核心基礎上也增長了約 7%。核心銷售的強勁是由多個終端市場和地區的增長推動的,因為以下領域的國內和國際需求正在以強勁的速度復甦。
Domestically, the growth was driven by a substantial increase in shipments to telecom national account customers due to much higher capital spending levels from these customers as they continue to harden their wireless networks and prepare for 5G rollouts.
在國內,增長是由電信國民賬戶客戶的出貨量大幅增加推動的,因為這些客戶的資本支出水平要高得多,因為他們繼續加強無線網絡並為 5G 推出做準備。
Also contributing to the increase was strong growth from mobile products to our rental channel customers as they are investing heavily in their fleets due to higher utilization and rental rates. We also experienced higher shipments of natural gas generators used in beyond standby applications. Internationally, the increase in C&I products was broad-based from a geographic standpoint, most notably in Europe and Latin America as these markets continue to experience a sharp increase in demand of the prior year COVID lows and have recovered well above 2019 levels.
移動產品對我們的租賃渠道客戶的強勁增長也促成了這一增長,因為他們由於更高的利用率和租金率而大量投資於他們的車隊。我們還經歷了用於超待機應用的天然氣發電機的更高出貨量。在國際上,從地理角度來看,C&I 產品的增長是廣泛的,尤其是在歐洲和拉丁美洲,因為這些市場的需求繼續經歷前一年 COVID 低點的急劇增長,並已恢復至遠高於 2019 年的水平。
Net sales for the other products and services category, primarily made up of aftermarket service parts, product accessories, extended warranty revenue, remote monitoring and grid services subscription revenue and other service offerings, increased 14% to $75.6 million as compared to $66.3 million in the third quarter of 2020. There was an approximate 4% benefit to net sales during the quarter from the impact of acquisitions and favorable foreign currency.
其他產品和服務類別的淨銷售額(主要由售後服務零件、產品配件、延長保修收入、遠程監控和電網服務訂閱收入以及其他服務產品組成)增長 14% 至 7560 萬美元,而去年同期為 6630 萬美元。 2020 年第三季度。由於收購和有利的外匯影響,該季度的淨銷售額增加了約 4%。
Heightened power outage activity over the past several quarters continues to drive strong growth in aftermarket service parts. A larger and growing installed base of our products and higher levels of extended warranty revenue also contributed to the increase versus prior year. Gross profit margin was 35.6% compared to 39.4% in the prior year third quarter as higher input costs had a significant unfavorable impact during the quarter.
過去幾個季度停電活動的加劇繼續推動售後服務零件的強勁增長。我們產品的更大且不斷增長的安裝基礎以及更高水平的延長保修收入也促成了與去年相比的增長。毛利率為 35.6%,而去年第三季度為 39.4%,因為較高的投入成本在本季度產生了重大不利影響。
Specifically, rising commodity prices, labor rates and logistics costs, along with the Trenton plant start-up, all pressured margins in the current year quarter. The early impact of pricing actions partially offset these margin pressures, with the full impact expected to be realized throughout 2022 as these price increases work through our backlog.
具體而言,商品價格、勞動力和物流成本的上漲,以及特倫頓工廠的啟動,都對本季度的利潤率造成了壓力。定價行動的早期影響部分抵消了這些利潤壓力,隨著這些價格上漲通過我們的積壓工作,預計將在整個 2022 年實現全部影響。
Operating expenses increased $41.9 million or 34.8% as compared to the third quarter of 2020 but declined 13 basis points as a percentage of revenue, excluding intangible amortization due to the substantially higher sales volumes on the current year quarter.
與 2020 年第三季度相比,運營費用增加了 4190 萬美元或 34.8%,但佔收入的百分比下降了 13 個基點,不包括由於本年度季度銷量大幅增加而導致的無形攤銷。
The increase in OpEx dollars was primarily driven by additional variable expenses from a significant increase in sales volume, higher employee costs and marketing spend and the impact of acquisitions. Specifically, recurring OpEx from the Mean Green, Enbala, Deep Sea, Chilicon, Apricity and Off Grid acquisitions, related higher amortization expense and incremental transaction cost during the current year quarter.
OpEx 美元的增長主要是由於銷量顯著增加、員工成本和營銷支出增加以及收購的影響帶來的額外可變費用。具體來說,來自 Mean Green、Enbala、Deep Sea、Chilicon、Apricity 和 Off Grid 收購的經常性運營支出、相關較高的攤銷費用和本年度季度的增量交易成本。
As a result, adjusted EBITDA before deducting for noncontrolling interest, as defined in our earnings release, was $209.2 million or 22.2% of net sales as compared to $178.8 million or 25.5% of net sales in the prior year. This EBITDA margin decrease was largely driven by the aforementioned decline in gross margin.
因此,在扣除非控制性權益之前,調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.092 億美元,占淨銷售額的 22.2%,而上一年為 1.788 億美元,占淨銷售額的 25.5%。 EBITDA 利潤率下降主要是由於上述毛利率下降所致。
I will now briefly discuss financial results for our 2 reportable segments. Domestic segment sales increased 30% to $791 million as compared to $607 million in the prior year quarter, with the impact of acquisitions contributing approximately 1% of the revenue growth for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $187.7 million, representing a 23.7% margin as compared to $171.4 million in the prior year or 28.2% of net sales.
我現在將簡要討論我們 2 個可報告分部的財務結果。與去年同期的 6.07 億美元相比,國內部門銷售額增長 30% 至 7.91 億美元,收購的影響約佔該季度收入增長的 1%。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.877 億美元,利潤率為 23.7%,而去年同期為 1.714 億美元,占淨銷售額的 28.2%。
International segment sales increased 61% to $152 million as compared to $94 million in the prior year quarter. Core sales, which excludes the favorable impact of acquisitions and currency, increased approximately 32% compared to the prior year.
與去年同期的 9400 萬美元相比,國際部門銷售額增長 61% 至 1.52 億美元。不包括收購和貨幣的有利影響的核心銷售額與去年相比增長了約 32%。
Adjusted EBITDA for the segment before deducting for noncontrolling interest was $21.5 million or 14.1% of net sales as compared to $7.4 million or 7.9% of net sales in the prior year. The strong growth in international EBITDA margins was primarily due to the favorable impact of the Deep Sea and Off Grid Energy acquisitions, and incremental operating leverage on the higher sales volumes.
在扣除非控制性權益之前,該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 2150 萬美元或淨銷售額的 14.1%,而上一年為 740 萬美元或淨銷售額的 7.9%。國際 EBITDA 利潤率的強勁增長主要是由於深海和離網能源收購的有利影響,以及對較高銷量的增量經營槓桿。
Now switching back to our financial performance for the third quarter of 2021 on a consolidated basis. As disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income attributable to the company in the quarter was $131.6 million as compared to $115 million for the third quarter of 2020.
現在切換回我們在合併基礎上的 2021 年第三季度財務業績。正如我們在財報中披露的那樣,本季度歸屬於公司的 GAAP 淨收入為 1.316 億美元,而 2020 年第三季度為 1.15 億美元。
GAAP income taxes during the current year third quarter were $32.6 million or an effective tax rate of 19.7% as compared to $32.1 million or an effective tax rate of 21.8% for the prior year. The decline in effective tax rate was primarily due to a discrete tax item resulting from a higher stock compensation deduction during the current year. Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $1.93 for the third quarter of 2021 compared to $1.82 for the prior year.
本年度第三季度的 GAAP 所得稅為 3260 萬美元,有效稅率為 19.7%,而上一年為 3210 萬美元,有效稅率為 21.8%。有效稅率下降主要是由於本年度較高的股票補償扣除導致的離散稅項。 2021 年第三季度,公司按公認會計原則計算的每股攤薄淨收益為 1.93 美元,而去年同期為 1.82 美元。
Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $151.1 million in the current year quarter or $2.35 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $132.9 million in the prior year or $2.08 per share.
根據我們的收益發布中的定義,公司調整後的淨收入在本年度季度為 1.511 億美元或每股 2.35 美元。相比之下,上一年調整後的淨收入為 1.329 億美元或每股 2.08 美元。
Cash income taxes for the third quarter of 2021 were $31.3 million as compared to $23.6 million in the prior year quarter. The current year now reflects an expected cash income tax rate of approximately 20% to 20.5% for the full year 2021 compared to our previous expectation of approximately 21% to 21.5%.
2021 年第三季度的現金所得稅為 3130 萬美元,而去年同期為 2360 萬美元。本年度現在反映了 2021 年全年的預期現金所得稅率約為 20% 至 20.5%,而我們之前的預期約為 21% 至 21.5%。
The decrease is primarily driven by a higher-than-expected level of stock compensation deduction. This expected full year cash tax rate compared to the prior year rate of 16% that was anticipated after the third quarter of the prior year. The increase in the current year cash tax rate versus prior year is primarily due to a significant increase in domestic pretax income, which is taxed at a higher statutory rate.
下降的主要原因是股票薪酬扣除額高於預期。與去年第三季度之後預計的 16% 的上一年稅率相比,這一預期的全年現金稅率。本年度現金稅率較上年增加的主要原因是國內稅前收入顯著增加,該收入按更高的法定稅率徵稅。
Cash flow from operations was $74 million as compared to $155 million in the prior year third quarter. And free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was $42 million as compared to $148 million in the same quarter last year. The decline in free cash flow was primarily due to a higher working capital investment in the current year quarter and higher capital expenditures, partially offset by an increase in operating earnings versus prior year.
運營現金流為 7400 萬美元,而去年第三季度為 1.55 億美元。根據我們的收益發布定義,自由現金流為 4200 萬美元,而去年同期為 1.48 億美元。自由現金流的下降主要是由於本季度營運資本投資增加和資本支出增加,部分被營業收入與上年相比的增加所抵消。
The higher working capital investment was driven by elevated inventory at the end of the current year quarter resulting from extended logistics in transit timing, continued supply chain constraints, ramping production rates and the start-up of our new Trenton, South Carolina facility.
由於運輸時間延長、供應鏈持續受限、生產率提高以及我們在南卡羅來納州特倫頓新工廠的啟動,本季度末庫存增加導致營運資金投資增加。
Updating our liquidity position as of September 30, 2021, we had $873 million of liquidity comprised of $424 million of cash on hand and $449 million of availability on our ABL revolving credit facility. Also, total debt outstanding at the end of the third quarter was $910 million, net of unamortized original issue discount and deferred financing costs. Our gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the third quarter was only 1.1x on an as-reported basis.
截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日更新我們的流動性狀況,我們擁有 8.73 億美元的流動性,其中包括 4.24 億美元的手頭現金和 4.49 億美元的 ABL 循環信貸額度可用。此外,第三季度末未償債務總額為 9.1 億美元,扣除未攤銷的原始發行折扣和遞延融資成本。我們在第三季度末的總債務槓桿率僅為報告的 1.1 倍。
Further enhancing this attractive capital structure is our strong cash flow profile with free cash flow over the last 12 months at $455 million. I would now like to provide some additional details on our outlook for full year 2021.
進一步增強這種有吸引力的資本結構是我們強勁的現金流狀況,過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 4.55 億美元。我現在想提供一些關於我們對 2021 年全年展望的更多細節。
As mentioned in our press release earlier this morning, we are maintaining our full year 2021 net sales growth guidance range of approximately 47% to 50% compared to the prior year, which includes approximately 5% of favorable impact from acquisitions and foreign currency. The expected benefit from acquisitions is moderately higher than previously anticipated due to the impact of the Off Grid Energy, Tank Utility and ecobee acquisitions not included in our previous guidance.
正如我們今天上午早些時候在新聞稿中提到的,我們將 2021 年全年淨銷售額增長指導範圍維持在與上一年相比約 47% 至 50% 的範圍內,其中包括來自收購和外彙的約 5% 的有利影響。由於我們之前的指導中未包括離網能源、坦克公用事業和生態蜂收購的影響,收購的預期收益略高於之前的預期。
Updating our margin outlook for the full year 2021. As we've discussed, we are continuing to experience significant supply chain challenges, logistics delays and rising commodity prices, which are resulting in higher input costs relative to our previous guidance. As a result of these factors, we now expect gross margin for the full year '21 to decline approximately 150 basis points as compared to the prior year, which compares to the previous expectation of approximately flat versus the prior year.
更新我們對 2021 年全年的利潤率展望。正如我們所討論的,我們將繼續面臨重大的供應鏈挑戰、物流延誤和商品價格上漲,這導致投入成本相對於我們之前的指導更高。由於這些因素,我們現在預計 21 年全年的毛利率將比上年下降約 150 個基點,而之前的預期與上年相比大致持平。
Due to the reduced gross margin outlook, adjusted EBITDA margins before deducting for noncontrolling interests are now expected to be approximately 23.5%, which compares to the previous guidance of 24.5% to 25%. As a result, we expect to maintain EBITDA margins compared to the prior year despite the significant margin headwinds and acquisitions executed during the current year.
由於毛利率前景下降,在扣除非控股權益之前調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率現在預計約為 23.5%,而之前的指引為 24.5% 至 25%。因此,儘管在本年度執行了重大的利潤逆風和收購,但我們預計與上一年相比保持 EBITDA 利潤率。
Providing some quick comments regarding our initial thoughts looking into 2022, the company's consolidated backlog has increased considerably since reporting our second quarter results, most notably for home standby generators, but also across a broad range of other residential and C&I product categories.
就我們對 2022 年的初步想法提供一些快速評論後,該公司的綜合積壓訂單自報告第二季度業績以來已大幅增加,最顯著的是家用備用發電機,以及廣泛的其他住宅和 C&I 產品類別。
For example, and as Aaron mentioned, our home standby backlog alone is projected to be well over $1 billion entering the new year. The substantial overall backlog expected at the end of this year provides support for another year of projected significant revenue growth in 2022 with an improving margin profile as we begin to realize the full impact of various pricing actions and cost reduction initiatives.
例如,正如 Aaron 提到的,進入新的一年,僅我們的家庭待命積壓就預計將超過 10 億美元。隨著我們開始意識到各種定價行動和降低成本舉措的全面影響,預計今年年底將出現大量積壓,為預計 2022 年又一年的收入顯著增長提供支持,同時提高利潤率。
Throughout 2021, we have implemented multiple rounds of price increases across all product categories with different realization lags depending on lead times. We expect increasing realization of all 2021 pricing actions throughout the first half of 2022, with the full benefit realized by the second half of 2022. We also are pursuing certain cost reduction initiatives to combat the significant increased input costs, including important projects focused on profitability enhancement and continuous improvement activities.
在整個 2021 年,我們對所有產品類別實施了多輪漲價,具體實現滯後取決於交貨時間。我們預計 2022 年上半年所有 2021 年定價行動的實現將越來越多,到 2022 年下半年將實現全部收益。我們還正在採取某些降低成本的舉措,以應對投入成本的顯著增加,包括專注於盈利能力的重要項目增強和持續改進活動。
We will now provide additional guidance details to assist with modeling adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow for 2021. As mentioned previously, our cash income tax rate is now expected to be between 20% to 20.5%, which compares to prior guidance of 21% to 21.5%. GAAP intangible amortization expense for 2021 is now forecasted to be approximately $45 million to $47 million as compared to the previous guidance of approximately $49 million, with the decrease primarily due to updated purchase accounting adjustments related to recent acquisitions.
我們現在將提供額外的指導細節,以幫助對 2021 年調整後的每股收益和自由現金流進行建模。如前所述,我們的現金所得稅率現在預計在 20% 至 20.5% 之間,而之前的指導為 21 % 至 21.5%。現在預計 2021 年的 GAAP 無形攤銷費用約為 4500 萬美元至 4700 萬美元,而之前的指引約為 4900 萬美元,減少的主要原因是與近期收購相關的更新採購會計調整。
Stock compensation expense is now expected to be approximately $26 million to $27 million as compared to previous guidance of $24 million, primarily due to the impact of additional acquisitions since our second quarter update. Our GAAP effective tax rate is now expected to be between 22% to 22.5% for the full year compared to the previous guidance range of 22.5% to 23.5%. The decline is primarily due to a higher level of stock compensation deduction during the current year.
股票補償費用現在預計約為 2600 萬美元至 2700 萬美元,而之前的指導為 2400 萬美元,這主要是由於我們第二季度更新以來額外收購的影響。我們的 GAAP 有效稅率現在預計全年在 22% 至 22.5% 之間,而之前的指導範圍為 22.5% 至 23.5%。下降的主要原因是本年度的股票補償扣除額較高。
Our fourth quarter weighted average diluted share count is now expected to be approximately 64.5 million shares, assuming a December 1 closing of the ecobee transaction. This concludes our prepared remarks at this time. We'd like to open up the call for questions.
假設 Ecobee 交易於 12 月 1 日結束,我們第四季度的加權平均稀釋後股票數量現在預計約為 6450 萬股。到此,我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們想打開提問的電話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We have our first question comes from the line of Tommy Moll from Stephens.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自斯蒂芬斯的 Tommy Moll。
Thomas Allen Moll - MD & Analyst
Thomas Allen Moll - MD & Analyst
Aaron, I wanted to start on ecobee, specifically on the go-to-market there. How do they go to market? Or how have they gone to market historically? How does that change when you tuck it as -- into your portfolio? And when you think about the edge that Generac will bring as the owner of this business going forward, where there's some fairly stiff competition, how would you frame that for us?
Aaron,我想從 ecobee 開始,特別是在那裡的上市。他們如何進入市場?或者它們在歷史上是如何進入市場的?當你把它塞進你的投資組合時,情況會如何變化?當您考慮 Generac 作為該業務的所有者將帶來的優勢時,在競爭相當激烈的情況下,您將如何為我們構建它?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. Thanks for the question on that, Tommy, ecobee is going to be -- I think we'll look back a couple of years from now, and that's going to be a really critical turning point for us as we continue on this journey, the evolution we talk about any way of becoming an energy technology company. Specific to your question on distribution, what we really like about them is that they refer to their go-to-market or their distribution strategy as omnichannel, which is exactly how we would refer to our own.
是的。謝謝你提出這個問題,Tommy,ecobee 將會是——我想我們會在幾年後回顧過去,這對我們來說將是一個非常關鍵的轉折點,因為我們將繼續這一旅程,進化我們談論成為能源技術公司的任何方式。具體到您關於分銷的問題,我們真正喜歡他們的是他們將他們的進入市場或他們的分銷策略稱為全渠道,這正是我們所指的我們自己的。
They sell through retailers, big-box retailers, they sell online on those platforms. They sell through dealers. They have over 40,000 HVAC contractors that represent them in the marketplace. So really a pretty wide net in terms of just the way they go to market. They sell to distributors, HVAC distributors. So it's really truly omnichannel.
他們通過零售商、大型零售商銷售,他們在這些平台上在線銷售。他們通過經銷商銷售。他們有超過 40,000 家 HVAC 承包商在市場上代表他們。因此,就他們進入市場的方式而言,這確實是一個相當廣泛的網絡。他們賣給經銷商,暖通空調經銷商。所以它真的是全渠道的。
So we like that, it fits well. We think there's going to be a lot of interesting synergies there. Our electrical channel can certainly install a thermostat and conversely, their trades can install some of our other products as well. So we think there's a really good fit there.
所以我們喜歡這樣,它很合適。我們認為那裡會有很多有趣的協同作用。我們的電氣渠道當然可以安裝恆溫器,相反,他們的行業也可以安裝我們的一些其他產品。所以我們認為那裡非常適合。
The thermostat market, if you just look at thermostats, the definition, you're right, it's a pretty big market. This is truly, I would say, beyond that, though. This is about the intelligent thermostat platform and the smart thermostat platform. And there really are only a handful of true competitors to what ecobee does. ecobee created this category. Basically, Stuart Lombard, great -- the person who runs that business up there, a great entrepreneur began that business in 2007.
恆溫器市場,如果你只看恆溫器的定義,你是對的,這是一個相當大的市場。不過,我會說,這確實超出了這一點。這是關於智能恆溫器平台和智能恆溫器平台的。實際上,ecobee 的真正競爭對手屈指可數。 ecobee 創建了這個類別。基本上,斯圖爾特·隆巴德(Stuart Lombard),太棒了——在那裡經營該業務的人,一位偉大的企業家於 2007 年開始了這項業務。
And by 2009, they had introduced the market's first true smart thermostat. And others have joined, you're right. But I think what -- when we think about our differentiation going forward, the combination of the smart thermostat as just one of the elements of -- as what we keep referring to as a home energy ecosystem, right? This is more than just a thermostat. It's more than just a water heater controller. It's more than just a single storage device or solar on the rooftop or a generator right, or a load management device. This is about the integration of all of those things. And what we really like about ecobee is it gives us a platform and it gives us a team of over 500 people up in Toronto that are steeped in user interfaces and user experience that is what we need to bring all of these assets together to combine them in a single pane of glass for view and control by the consumer.
到 2009 年,他們推出了市場上第一個真正的智能恆溫器。其他人也加入了,你是對的。但我認為——當我們考慮未來的差異化時,智能恆溫器的組合只是其中的一個元素——我們一直稱之為家庭能源生態系統,對吧?這不僅僅是一個恆溫器。它不僅僅是一個熱水器控制器。它不僅僅是一個單一的存儲設備或屋頂上的太陽能或發電機,或負載管理設備。這是關於所有這些東西的整合。我們真正喜歡 ecobee 的地方在於它為我們提供了一個平台,它為我們提供了一個在多倫多擁有超過 500 人的團隊,他們沉浸在用戶界面和用戶體驗中,這正是我們需要將所有這些資產組合在一起以將它們結合起來在一個單一的玻璃窗格中供消費者查看和控制。
And then for easy attachment to grid programs through our Concerto platform. So we think that this is kind of the middle layer that is -- it's much more than just a thermostat. It's the middle layer that we need going forward to bring all of this stuff to bear as the grid continues to change and as the home energy ecosystem continues to develop.
然後通過我們的 Concerto 平台輕鬆連接到網格程序。所以我們認為這是一種中間層——它不僅僅是一個恆溫器。隨著電網的不斷變化和家庭能源生態系統的不斷發展,這是我們需要向前推進所有這些東西的中間層。
So we're -- I'm just really excited about this. It is a cool product. If you've ever look at the product itself and just the quality of it, the premium look, fit and finish of the product itself and the platform, if you ever use the ecobee platform, it's definitely, I think, going to be a really cool platform to put all of our devices into.
所以我們 - 我對此感到非常興奮。這是一個很酷的產品。如果您曾經看過產品本身以及它的質量、產品本身和平台的優質外觀、合身性和完成度,如果您曾經使用過 ecobee 平台,我認為它肯定會成為非常酷的平台,可將我們所有的設備放入其中。
Thomas Allen Moll - MD & Analyst
Thomas Allen Moll - MD & Analyst
That's very helpful. As a follow-up, I wanted to talk to your HSB business, where recently at the Investor Day, you gave some directional insight on really favorable cost per lead trends. So you're still supply constrained there, notwithstanding some major efforts to alleviate that bottleneck. But if you weren't supply constrained in this environment, Aaron, how many more sales and marketing dollars could you deploy efficiently into that customer acquisition funnel? Are we talking 25% more dollars, 50%?
這很有幫助。作為後續行動,我想與您的 HSB 業務進行交談,最近在投資者日,您對每個潛在客戶的真正有利成本趨勢提供了一些方向性的見解。因此,儘管為緩解這一瓶頸做出了一些重大努力,但那裡的供應仍然受到限制。但是,如果您在這種環境下沒有受到供應限制,Aaron,您還能將多少銷售和營銷資金有效地部署到客戶獲取渠道中?我們是在談論多 25% 還是 50% 的美元?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
I think what's interesting, Tom, is we really haven't backed off on deploying the dollars even though we're supply constrained, and this is maybe why the lead times continue to grow, which is not what we want to see for our customers. But I think we've got our arms around some really good longer-term plans here to continue to expand capacity.
我認為有趣的是,湯姆,即使我們的供應受到限制,我們也確實沒有放棄部署資金,這也許就是交貨時間繼續增長的原因,這不是我們希望為客戶看到的.但我認為我們已經掌握了一些非常好的長期計劃,以繼續擴大產能。
All the things that we have been working on that will come online next year. And then we've made some pretty big commitments here in the third quarter, very recently, around not only the expansion of the Trenton facility, which I think is an important commitment, but commitments towards additional automated manufacturing equipment to help us scale even further there. But your question is a good one.
我們一直在做的所有事情都將在明年上線。然後我們在第三季度做出了一些相當大的承諾,最近,不僅圍繞特倫頓工廠的擴建,我認為這是一項重要的承諾,而且承諾增加自動化製造設備以幫助我們進一步擴大規模那裡。但是你的問題很好。
I would tell you that our marketing team watches the statistics very closely.
我會告訴你,我們的營銷團隊非常密切地關注統計數據。
And if they were to see the cost per lead starting to change, right, around where we're spending and where we're deploying dollars, they would throttle back the spending. And so far, that really hasn't been the case. So I think what people sometimes don't realize is this -- a home standby generator project was already kind of a long term -- it was a longer, I would say, project time line for most people because there's permitting involved, there's contractors involved.
如果他們看到每個潛在客戶的成本開始發生變化,正確的,圍繞我們在哪裡支出以及我們在哪裡部署美元,他們會限制支出。到目前為止,事實並非如此。所以我認為人們有時沒有意識到這一點 - 家庭備用發電機項目已經是一個長期的項目 - 我想說,對於大多數人來說,項目時間線更長,因為涉及許可,有承包商涉及。
You have the work itself, you have inspectors. Clearly, it wasn't 7 months before. But it generally was 2, 3 months. And I think people realize in today's environment that we are supply constrained on a lot of things, not just home standby generators, appliances, vehicles, you name it, and it's tough to find things today.
你有工作本身,你有檢查員。顯然,這不是 7 個月前。但一般是2、3個月。而且我認為人們在今天的環境中意識到,我們在很多東西上都受到供應限制,而不僅僅是家用備用發電機、電器、車輛等等,而且今天很難找到這些東西。
So I think there's, call it, an acceptance level, I don't know what it is, but I think people are somewhat accepting of the fact that they have to wait. And I think it also speaks to just how in tune people are with the importance of having backup power. The outages have been increasing, they've been lasting longer. I think people are spending a ton more time in their homes, and they realize just how vulnerable they are.
所以我認為有,稱之為接受水平,我不知道它是什麼,但我認為人們在某種程度上接受了他們必須等待的事實。而且我認為這也說明了人們對擁有備用電源的重要性的看法。停電一直在增加,它們持續的時間更長。我認為人們在家中花費的時間越來越多,他們意識到自己是多麼脆弱。
And what that means to the ability to work from home, their kids ability to learn from home, all the things that we need to do from home only happen with a continuous source of power. So I think a generator is just going to be -- it's going to be an appliance that we all have here going forward. We're going to need that as the grid continues to change. And that's why we're committed to expanding our capacity. We've got a lot of confidence in where this is going longer term. And I think that as it relates to marketing dollars, we're going to continue to spend there, too, as long as it makes sense financially.
這對在家工作的能力、他們的孩子在家學習的能力意味著什麼,我們需要在家做的所有事情只有在持續的電力來源的情況下才會發生。所以我認為發電機將成為——它將成為我們所有人都在這裡擁有的設備。隨著網格的不斷變化,我們將需要它。這就是為什麼我們致力於擴大我們的能力。我們對長期的發展方向充滿信心。而且我認為,由於它與營銷資金有關,只要在財務上有意義,我們也將繼續在那裡支出。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi from Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ross Gilardi。
Ross Paul Gilardi - Director
Ross Paul Gilardi - Director
I just had some questions just on the York's preliminary comments on the '22 revenue growth. Just want to see if I'm thinking about it right. But it would seem if you deliver the backlog alone, and I think the critical planning assumption that you had at the Investor Day was to work that backlog down to essentially 0 by the end of 2022. I mean $1 billion-plus backlog, that alone is close to 30% revenue growth next year. Am I thinking about that correctly?
我只是對約克對 22 年收入增長的初步評論有一些疑問。只是想看看我是否考慮對了。但是,如果您單獨交付積壓,我認為您在投資者日所做的關鍵計劃假設是到 2022 年底將積壓降至基本為 0。我的意思是 10 億美元以上的積壓,僅此一項明年的收入增長接近 30%。我是否正確地考慮了這一點?
And from an installer and distribution perspective, are you confident that you've got not distributors, installers on the ground right now to get those all installed or do they just end up sitting in limbo for a period of time?
從安裝人員和分銷的角度來看,您是否確信您現在沒有分銷商、安裝人員來完成所有安裝,或者他們最終會陷入困境一段時間?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. Ross, this is Aaron. I'll take some of those questions. I'll kick it to York here too if he wants to jump in. Maybe just on the backlog, I think directionally, you're thinking about it right. I mean we've got -- clearly, we're going to have a bigger backlog coming into '22 than we originally thought because demand has just been stronger, I mean it's outstripping supply. We're hitting record output levels on HSB.
是的。羅斯,這是亞倫。我會回答其中的一些問題。如果他想加入,我也會把它踢到約克這裡。也許只是積壓,我認為方向性,你想得對。我的意思是我們已經 - 顯然,我們將有比我們最初想像的更大的積壓進入 22 年,因為需求剛剛強勁,我的意思是它超過了供應。我們在 HSB 上達到了創紀錄的輸出水平。
We could go higher if not for some of the -- and a lot of our constraints here are pure logistics related. I mean just the nuttiness of getting components from point A to point B right now, just the amount of dwell time that's going on with components in the ports and trying to find trucks, everything else you've heard about from every single company in America, we're no different.
如果不是因為某些原因,我們可以走得更高——而且我們這裡的很多限制都是純粹的物流相關的。我的意思是現在將組件從 A 點運送到 B 點的瘋狂,只是在港口和試圖尋找卡車的過程中所花費的停留時間,以及你從美國每一家公司那裡聽到的所有其他信息,我們也不例外。
And that is -- that's kind of holding us back a bit. But we think that's temporary, that will resolve. We're confident that we'll get our feet under us as a country here around getting our supply chains repaired. But directionally, you're right. I think that the real question is, we talked about this double-double in terms of our capacity. That's theoretical capacity. If the supply chain constraints persist into the first half of next year, that could obviously create some headwinds, right, to what we originally thought of in terms of ultimate theoretical capacity.
那就是 - 這有點讓我們退縮。但我們認為這是暫時的,這將解決。作為一個國家,我們有信心在修復我們的供應鏈方面站穩腳跟。但在方向上,你是對的。我認為真正的問題是,我們在能力方面談到了這個雙雙。這就是理論能力。如果供應鏈限制持續到明年上半年,那顯然可能會對我們最初認為的最終理論能力產生一些不利影響。
So that's something we've got to watch. Longer term, again, we feel like we've got a good plan to go even higher, to go even further with home standby capacity. We've got the confidence to do that. I think you may have hit on something that that's really important here is in the distribution network in terms of installation. We have 8,100 dealers today. We're growing that number, we've grown 1,100 dealers over the last 12 months, the most in any last 12-month period we've ever grown, and we're going to need to grow a lot more.
所以這是我們必須注意的事情。從長遠來看,再次,我們覺得我們有一個很好的計劃,可以走得更高,在家庭備用容量方面走得更遠。我們有信心做到這一點。我認為您可能已經找到了在安裝方面非常重要的事情,那就是在分銷網絡中。我們今天有 8,100 家經銷商。我們正在增加這個數字,在過去的 12 個月中,我們已經增加了 1,100 家經銷商,這是我們在過去 12 個月中增長最多的一次,而且我們需要進一步增長。
The reality of it is we're going to have to pick up the pace of installations so that we can keep pace as we deliver more products going into next year. Now remember that dealers aren't the only people who do installations. Installations are also done generally by contractors. There's over 70,000 electrical contractors out there, and there's over 100,000 HVAC contractors. And both of those trades do HSB installations. So it's beyond just our dealers. They do the lion's share, but it's also other trades that are involved who may not be dealers for us.
現實情況是,我們將不得不加快安裝步伐,以便在明年交付更多產品時跟上步伐。現在請記住,經銷商並不是唯一進行安裝的人。安裝通常也由承包商完成。那裡有超過 70,000 名電氣承包商,並且有超過 100,000 名 HVAC 承包商。這兩個行業都進行 HSB 安裝。所以它不僅僅是我們的經銷商。他們承擔了最大的份額,但涉及的其他行業也可能不是我們的經銷商。
So we have a pretty wide availability of contractors, but we really need to do a lot more training. We need to find more dealers. And we've got a, I would say, an outsized effort and outsized focus on that for next year. I don't know, York, if there's any additional comments you want to make I think you hit on.
所以我們有相當廣泛的承包商,但我們確實需要做更多的培訓。我們需要尋找更多的經銷商。我會說,我們已經在明年做出了巨大的努力和巨大的關注。我不知道,York,如果你想發表任何其他意見,我想你說得對。
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
I think you hit the -- what is the supply chain environment next year and will we catch backlog next year? I think it's all a function of what does the supply chain look like and what does the outage environment look like. So I think that would be my only remarks.
我想你打到了——明年的供應鏈環境是什麼,明年我們會積壓嗎?我認為這完全取決於供應鍊是什麼樣的,以及停電環境是什麼樣的。所以我想這將是我唯一的評論。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
It's setting up to be a monster year just based on the backlog we've got alone.
僅根據我們單獨獲得的積壓工作,這將是一個巨大的一年。
Ross Paul Gilardi - Director
Ross Paul Gilardi - Director
Okay. Great. Can I ask a follow-up question?
好的。偉大的。我可以問一個後續問題嗎?
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
Yes.
是的。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes.
是的。
Ross Paul Gilardi - Director
Ross Paul Gilardi - Director
The original plan, I think, well, I'd say original, at least last quarter, was to get EBITDA margin back to Q1 '21 levels in the fourth quarter. And obviously, that's changed as you reflected in your guidance. But do you get back there in the first half of '22? And can you give us a sense of the run rate pricing contribution to revenue growth entering next year?
最初的計劃,我認為,至少在上個季度,我會說最初的計劃是在第四季度將 EBITDA 利潤率恢復到 21 年第一季度的水平。顯然,隨著您在指導中的反映,這種情況發生了變化。但是你會在 22 年上半年回到那裡嗎?您能否讓我們了解運行率定價對明年收入增長的貢獻?
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
Yes. No, I think as I mentioned, we've had multiple rounds of pricing across -- really across all categories. I mean with home standby, there was roughly 4 of that went in place, 1 earlier in the year, like, call it, December, January, another in call it, May, June, another one in September, another one we're contemplating recently. So when you think about how all those are going to pace into next year, the May increase, we'll start seeing that probably the beginning of 2022. The September increase, we'll actually see because that was on shipments, we'll see that here in Q4. That was a smaller one.
是的。不,我認為正如我所提到的,我們已經進行了多輪定價——實際上是所有類別的定價。我的意思是,在家待命時,大約有 4 個已經到位,今年早些時候有 1 個,比如,叫它,12 月,1 月,另一個在叫它,5 月,6 月,另一個在 9 月,另一個我們是最近在考慮。因此,當您考慮所有這些將如何步入明年,即 5 月的增長時,我們可能會在 2022 年初開始看到。9 月的增長,我們實際上會看到,因為那是出貨量,我們會在第四季度看到這裡。那是一個較小的。
The one coming up here, that probably won't realize till, let's say, July, given our lead times. So I think -- and then you look at other products, we're also -- we've rolled out pricing as well. So I think I would say by the end of the first half of 2022, we'll get full realization of all of our pricing. That should get us to gross margins that were at least look more similar to where they were in the beginning of the year. We're putting our budgets together as we speak. So not giving clear guidance as to what that looks like, but...
考慮到我們的交貨時間,到這裡來的人可能要到七月才能意識到。所以我認為 - 然後你看看其他產品,我們也是 - 我們也推出了定價。所以我想我會說到 2022 年上半年末,我們將完全實現我們所有的定價。這應該使我們的毛利率至少看起來與年初的情況更相似。我們正在把我們的預算放在一起。所以沒有給出關於它是什麼樣子的明確指導,但是......
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
It's definitely going improve.
它肯定會有所改善。
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
It will definitely improve.
它肯定會有所改善。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
And we'll do that sequentially throughout next year. I would say, Ross, it's interesting, kind of as we unpack this, what -- the way that the costs rose so rapidly, in particular, around logistics. I mean that was a big deal. And steel, certain commodity costs that are heavy in our products.
我們將在整個明年按順序執行此操作。我想說,羅斯,這很有趣,當我們打開這個包裝時,什麼 - 成本如此迅速上漲的方式,特別是在物流方面。我的意思是那是一件大事。還有鋼鐵,我們產品中的某些商品成本很高。
Two things happened. One, we've got -- we had this -- we've just got long lead times on the product. So getting pricing to realize, we're somewhat constrained there just because of the outsized demand for HSB in particular. But then also, I would say, our cost lags, if you will, have shortened because we're burning through material so much quicker. The pace of production is increasing at such a volatile pace where I think lags of increases in the past with commodities and other things might have taken us a while longer to get through and start to show and read through in the EBITDA margins or even the gross margins, they're reading through quicker right now. So temporary, we got a good plan to get ahead of it and feel really good about where we're going to be next year.
發生了兩件事。一,我們有——我們有這個——我們剛剛在產品上有很長的交貨時間。因此,要實現定價,我們在某種程度上受到了限制,因為特別是對 HSB 的巨大需求。但是,我還要說,如果您願意的話,我們的成本滯後已經縮短,因為我們燃燒材料的速度要快得多。生產速度正在以如此不穩定的速度增長,我認為過去商品和其他事物的增長滯後可能需要我們更長的時間才能完成並開始顯示和閱讀 EBITDA 利潤率甚至毛利率邊距,他們現在閱讀速度更快。所以暫時的,我們有一個很好的計劃來超越它,並且對我們明年的目標感覺非常好。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen from ROTH Capital.
我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital 的 Philip Shen。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
The first one is around capacity. You announced that expansion in Trenton yesterday. I just wanted to check to see if that was a part of the double by 2022 -- Q2 '22. And then you mentioned, Aaron, that you've secured equipment for 2023. So I was wondering if you could expand on whether or not you've made the decision on capacity expansion beyond the Q2 '22 double.
第一個是關於容量的。你昨天宣布了在特倫頓的擴張。我只是想看看這是否是到 2022 年的兩倍——22 年第二季度。然後你提到,Aaron,你已經獲得了 2023 年的設備。所以我想知道你是否可以擴展你是否已經決定在 22 年第二季度雙倍之後擴大產能。
So have you guys locked in supply chain agreements, which I believe are critical? And have you made any, yes, commitments there? And then finally, the Jefferson facility, I think you guys have converted that to being permanent. Is that key for reaching that Q2 '22 double as well?
那麼你們是否鎖定了供應鏈協議,我認為這很關鍵?你有沒有在那裡做出任何承諾?最後,杰斐遜設施,我認為你們已經將其轉變為永久性設施。這也是達到 Q2 '22 雙倍的關鍵嗎?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Got it. Thanks, Phil. Yes, capacity at HSB, let's just kind of run through a couple of things in your question. So the expansion of Trenton, first. So that expansion add 200,000 square feet to that facility, that is really about warehousing and distribution. So I wouldn't say it would impact our double-double at all.
知道了。謝謝,菲爾。是的,HSB 的容量,讓我們簡單介紹一下您問題中的幾件事。所以首先是特倫頓的擴張。因此,該擴建為該設施增加了 200,000 平方英尺,這實際上是關於倉儲和配送。所以我不會說這會影響我們的兩雙。
What it is representative of is our confidence that we're going to be able to run at an elevated rate down there for an extended period of time. We would have had to do the warehousing and distribution end of that with [3PLs]. By bringing in-house, we just we get a nice payback on that project pretty quickly. So that just made a lot of sense and I think is indicative of kind of the longer-term feelings that we have about not only Trenton, we like the facility, we like the labor pool but also just the category, home standby in general.
它代表的是我們相信我們將能夠在那里以較高的速度運行很長一段時間。我們將不得不使用 [3PLs] 來完成倉儲和配送。通過引入內部,我們很快就在該項目上獲得了不錯的回報。所以這很有意義,我認為這表明了我們對特倫頓的長期感受,我們喜歡設施,我們喜歡勞動力池,而且只是類別,一般來說是家庭待命。
Now on the additional capacity that we talked about on our prepared remarks, with the long lead time automated manufacturing equipment, really, what's going on there is, as we've talked, Phil, we have some internal components we manufacture that -- of which the tooling to make that equipment has just gotten crazy long.
現在,關於我們在準備好的評論中談到的額外產能,以及較長的交貨時間自動化製造設備,真的,正如我們所說的那樣,發生了什麼,菲爾,我們有一些我們製造的內部組件 -製造該設備的工具已經瘋狂了很久。
I mean we're talking 60 to 70 weeks long in terms of ordering the equipment and getting it delivered and starting to run it off. So what we're doing there is we're basically saying, look, we have confidence in the category. We have confidence in the demand we're seeing. Let's get our tooling on order.
我的意思是,在訂購設備、交付設備並開始運行方面,我們要花 60 到 70 週的時間。所以我們在那裡所做的基本上是在說,看,我們對這個類別有信心。我們對我們看到的需求充滿信心。讓我們訂購我們的工具。
We don't even know where we're going to put the tooling, right? We're not exactly sure if it's going to go in maybe another expansion of Trenton or maybe the -- maybe we squeeze it into Whitewater or maybe we put it into Jefferson and I'll address that here in a second or maybe it's a whole other facility. We don't really know yet.
我們甚至不知道我們要把工具放在哪裡,對吧?我們不確定它是否會進入特倫頓的另一個擴展區,或者——也許我們把它擠進白水,或者我們把它放進杰斐遜,我會在一秒鐘內在這裡解決這個問題,或者它可能是一個整體其他設施。我們還真的不知道。
What we do know is it will allow us to go further than the double-double that we talked about, right? So it gets us set up to do that. So now we start the rest of the ground game that has to get done there around supply chain, around all the other elements that have to fall into place.
我們所知道的是,它會讓我們比我們談到的兩雙走得更遠,對吧?所以它讓我們做好了準備。所以現在我們開始剩下的地面遊戲,必須圍繞供應鏈完成,圍繞所有其他必須到位的元素。
And we'll be able to provide more color on that as we get closer to it, but we just -- we felt like we had to take the first step here, given the lead times on that equipment, we just wanted to get -- make sure that we got ahead of it, and we didn't want to get in a situation where we couldn't react. So we're kind of putting our markers down for the future there.
隨著我們越來越接近它,我們將能夠為其提供更多顏色,但我們只是 - 我們覺得我們必須在這裡邁出第一步,考慮到該設備的交貨時間,我們只是想得到 - - 確保我們領先於它,並且我們不想陷入無法做出反應的情況。因此,我們正在為那裡的未來打下標記。
And then on Jefferson, you're right, we kind of took a facility where we're making portable generators, power washers, core products. And we've added capacity for HSP. We added another production line there here recently in the third quarter. So we're producing more out of Jefferson and we anticipate producing more as we end the year here.
然後在杰斐遜,你是對的,我們在某種程度上建立了一個生產便攜式發電機、電動洗衣機和核心產品的設施。我們還增加了 HSP 的容量。我們最近在第三季度在這裡增加了另一條生產線。因此,我們正在從杰斐遜那裡生產更多產品,並且我們預計到今年年底時會生產更多產品。
If you recall, we mentioned that we're going to the outside for some key components that we normally manufacture. So we spooled up some components on the outside. Those are going to start to be delivered here in the back half of the fourth quarter, and they're going to go to Jefferson where they're going to help us increase capacity there.
如果您還記得,我們提到我們將在外部採購我們通常製造的一些關鍵組件。所以我們在外面收集了一些組件。這些將在第四季度後半段開始在這裡交付,他們將前往杰斐遜,在那裡他們將幫助我們增加那裡的產能。
Whether or not we continue to do that long term, I think we're going to continue to do it for the foreseeable future, for certain the next 12 months. I think all of '22 will be producing HSB in Jefferson and likely into 2023, depending on kind of what kind of backlog, if we're able to knock the backlog out next year, which is looking less and less likely, just given where the demand is.
無論我們是否繼續長期這樣做,我認為我們將在可預見的未來繼續這樣做,在接下來的 12 個月內肯定會這樣做。我認為 22 年的所有時間都將在 Jefferson 生產 HSB,並且可能到 2023 年,這取決於什麼樣的積壓,如果我們能夠在明年消除積壓,這看起來越來越不可能,只是在哪裡需求是。
I mean it just keeps coming every day. It's amazing. And so where that demand ends up, where we may end up for the year of 2022 will kind of dictate how we feel about '23. And then some of that will be about where we put that new tooling as well. So more to come on that, but definitely taking the next steps that we think we need to be able to go far beyond that existing double-double that we've talked about for capacity on HSB.
我的意思是它每天都在不斷出現。太奇妙了。因此,這種需求在哪裡結束,我們在 2022 年可能會在哪裡結束,這將決定我們對 23 年的感受。然後其中一些將是關於我們放置新工具的位置。所以還有更多的事情要做,但肯定會採取我們認為我們需要能夠遠遠超出我們已經討論過的 HSB 容量的現有雙雙的下一步。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Great. As it relates to ecobee, based on our industry checks last night or guesstimating that the revenue run rate is, call it, $30 million to $50 million and the company is probably running at breakeven. Are we in the right ballpark here? And if so, what kind of year-over-year growth could you see for you ecobee in 2022?
偉大的。由於它與 ecobee 相關,根據我們昨晚的行業調查或猜測收入運行率為 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元,該公司可能處於盈虧平衡狀態。我們在正確的球場嗎?如果是這樣,您認為 2022 年的 ecobee 會出現什麼樣的同比增長?
And finally, how are they managing through the chip shortage? I'm guessing they're having some issues there as well. Perhaps that's a near-term challenge, but something that they work through over time.
最後,他們是如何應對芯片短缺的?我猜他們那裡也有一些問題。也許這是一個短期的挑戰,但他們會隨著時間的推移而努力。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. No, good question, Phil. And again, we're really excited about this one. Now ecobee's quite a bit bigger than that. So they're about probably closer to $125 million in revs and that's supply chain constrained, to your point on chips, they could be going higher than that, but they do have, as you would imagine, some supply chain constraints there. They're working through those like we all are.
是的。不,好問題,菲爾。再一次,我們對此感到非常興奮。現在,ecobee 比這要大得多。因此,它們的轉速可能接近 1.25 億美元,而且供應鏈受到限制,就芯片而言,它們可能會更高,但正如您想像的那樣,它們確實存在一些供應鏈限制。他們正在像我們所有人一樣努力解決這些問題。
And we're adding additional chip capacity across that product line. Stuart and his team are doing a nice job of navigating that. Their growth rate is going to be about 3x the Generac growth rate as we laid it out in the LRP model for the Investor Day. So they've got a lot of aggressive growth on the table. That's not only devices, but it's also services. So pretty exciting. That's a lot of growth coming out of the services piece going forward.
我們正在為該產品線增加額外的芯片容量。 Stuart 和他的團隊在導航方面做得很好。正如我們在投資者日的 LRP 模型中所述,它們的增長率將是 Generac 增長率的 3 倍左右。所以他們有很多積極的增長。這不僅是設備,也是服務。太令人興奮了。這是未來服務領域的巨大增長。
But no, it's actually -- I kind of call it a start-up that's kind of getting to scale. They've been around 14 years, and they spent a lot of time getting to this point and they've really started to see an inflection here in the last couple of years. They are still in investment mode, so they're generating operating losses today, and will continue to do so. We're going to continue that investment cycle over the next couple of years. It's probably going to be a couple of years before they're breakeven.
但不,它實際上是——我有點稱它為一個正在擴大規模的初創公司。他們已經有 14 年左右的時間了,他們花了很多時間才達到這一點,在過去的幾年裡,他們真的開始看到這裡的轉折點。他們仍處於投資模式,因此他們今天正在產生運營虧損,並將繼續這樣做。在接下來的幾年裡,我們將繼續這個投資週期。他們可能需要幾年的時間才能達到收支平衡。
So -- but that doesn't worry us. We think it's an important investment to continue to make, not only around their existing platforms around the home energy monitoring, but also, again, around integration and synchronization of all of our assets that are part of our home energy ecosystem going forward.
所以——但這並不讓我們擔心。我們認為這是一項需要繼續進行的重要投資,不僅圍繞他們現有的圍繞家庭能源監控的平台,而且再次圍繞我們所有資產的整合和同步,這些資產是我們未來家庭能源生態系統的一部分。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Drab from William Blair.
我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Brian Drab。
Brian Paul Drab - Partner & Analyst
Brian Paul Drab - Partner & Analyst
First, can you just talk about the supply chain issues that you might be facing or could face as you try to ramp capacity additionally setting up a new distribution warehouse, any of the equipment that you need? We're talking a lot about supply chain issues, whether as it relates to building generators, but just getting the equipment that you need into these facilities. How is that going?
首先,您能否談談您在嘗試增加產能並建立新的配送倉庫時可能面臨或可能面臨的供應鏈問題,以及您需要的任何設備?我們談論了很多關於供應鏈問題,無論是與建造發電機有關,但只是將您需要的設備放入這些設施中。情況如何?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes, Brian, it's a great question. We're actually pacing pretty well with the existing equipment that's been on order. The new equipment that we've ordered here recently and committed to part of the reason why that equipment is out longer on lead times is due to some component shortages. There's -- these are automated systems. So there's a lot of logic in them, a lot of chips, and they're struggling with that.
是的,布賴恩,這是一個很好的問題。實際上,我們在訂購現有設備的情況下進展順利。我們最近在這裡訂購的新設備並承諾導致該設備交貨時間更長的部分原因是由於某些組件短缺。有 - 這些是自動化系統。所以他們有很多邏輯,很多芯片,他們正在努力解決這個問題。
But the existing systems that we're bringing on here in Q1 and Q2 of next year are still holding in there in terms of the time line. So we feel good about that. No material delays there. The rest of the supply chain challenges whether it be building out the Trenton facility or some of the other things that we're trying to do here, I think we've effectively kind of -- we've built that into our assumptions around the timing of when those things will become meaningful to us or when they'll come online.
但是我們在明年第一季度和第二季度推出的現有系統在時間線方面仍然存在。所以我們對此感覺很好。那裡沒有材料延誤。供應鏈的其餘部分都面臨挑戰,無論是建造特倫頓設施還是我們在這裡嘗試做的其他一些事情,我認為我們已經有效地——我們已經將這一點納入了我們圍繞這些事情何時對我們變得有意義或何時上線。
It's really the near-term true component supply chain that's been just that really deteriorated in the third quarter. When we sat there even when we talked to everybody at our Investor Day, I mean, just what it did from the end of kind of the middle to the end of September to the end of October was disappointing, right? Just the amount of ships that anchor on the West Coast, just the trucking challenges, the rail challenges, the port challenges, the amount of additional time it's taking to get things here.
真正在第三季度真正惡化的是近期真正的組件供應鏈。當我們坐在那裡,即使我們在投資者日與每個人交談時,我的意思是,從 9 月底到 9 月底到 10 月底,它所做的事情令人失望,對吧?只是停泊在西海岸的船隻數量,卡車運輸挑戰,鐵路挑戰,港口挑戰,以及將東西運到這裡所需的額外時間。
Forget about the cost to get it here, which is mind numbing as well, but the time. It's really the time factor to get it here. I'm really hopeful that, that's going to start to turn around here over the next 60 days I'm hoping are going to be better. We're hearing indications that perhaps things have bottomed on that side in terms of just where they've been. And hopefully, that will improve on a go-forward basis. But every day, it seems to be something different that we're fighting a fire on.
忘記到這裡的成本,這也令人麻木,但時間。把它帶到這裡真的是時間因素。我真的很有希望,在接下來的 60 天裡,情況會開始好轉,我希望會變得更好。我們聽到的跡象表明,就其所處的位置而言,事情可能已經觸底。希望這將在前進的基礎上有所改善。但每一天,我們都在努力解決一些不同的問題。
Brian Paul Drab - Partner & Analyst
Brian Paul Drab - Partner & Analyst
And then as a follow-up, the mind numbing costs, can you -- maybe this is for York, but can you quantify what you expect the excess transportation costs to be in 2021? And if we move into a world in 2022 where that starts to subside, I'm just trying to get a sense for how helpful that could be to the -- your financial model for next year.
然後作為後續行動,令人麻木的成本,你能不能——也許這是給約克的,但你能量化你對 2021 年超額運輸成本的預期嗎?如果我們在 2022 年進入一個開始消退的世界,我只是想了解這對你明年的財務模型有多大幫助。
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
Yes. I mean just looking at the gross margin reduction here in Q3, gross margins reduced over 3%. That was predominantly all price cost as a headwind. And then just looking forward into Q4, that's another something similar, almost 4% price cost there impacting us in Q4 year-over-year. So if that moderates, coupled with the pricing actions on top of it, that could have a pretty quick snapback in terms of profitability.
是的。我的意思是只看第三季度的毛利率下降,毛利率下降了 3% 以上。這主要是所有價格成本作為逆風。然後只是展望第四季度,這是另一個類似的情況,幾乎 4% 的價格成本在第四季度對我們產生了同比影響。因此,如果這種情況有所緩和,再加上其之上的定價行動,那麼就盈利能力而言,這可能會出現相當快的反彈。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha from Guggenheim Partners.
我們的下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Joseph Osha。
Joseph Amil Osha - Former MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Joseph Amil Osha - Former MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
But we haven't talked about Chilicon much today. I'm wondering as you think about that launch and all of the things we've been talking about here in terms of availability of components and price. How that's looking right now?
但是我們今天並沒有過多地談論 Chilicon。我想知道當您考慮該發布以及我們在這裡討論的組件可用性和價格方面的所有事情時。現在看起來怎麼樣?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. It's a great point, Joe. I'm glad you asked the question because we haven't talked a lot about Chilicon. And probably out of all the acquisitions we've done and ecobee represents a pretty nice size TAM as well. But the TAM available to us through Chilicon through those microinverters is big. And the team is making really good progress on the launch of those products in Q2 of next year.
是的。這是一個很好的觀點,喬。我很高興你問了這個問題,因為我們還沒有談過太多關於 Chilicon 的事情。可能在我們完成的所有收購中,ecobee 也代表了一個相當不錯的 TAM。但是通過 Chilicon 通過這些微型逆變器提供給我們的 TAM 是很大的。該團隊在明年第二季度推出這些產品方面取得了非常好的進展。
So still hanging in there with our commitment to do that. We're watching, obviously, availability of components. We're working to scale the contract manufacturer that Chilicon was using, and then we're adding other contract manufacturing resources. We're going to broaden that supply chain out so that we believe we've got enough supply to get going on that next year. But as we're starting to take a look at our plan for next year, we're kind of sitting there stepping back and saying, look, there's a lot of people that have interest in these products. And we are setting up to have a pretty healthy position on supply.
所以仍然堅持我們的承諾。顯然,我們正在關注組件的可用性。我們正在努力擴大 Chilicon 使用的合同製造商,然後我們正在添加其他合同製造資源。我們將擴大供應鏈,以便我們相信我們有足夠的供應來繼續明年的工作。但是當我們開始考慮明年的計劃時,我們有點坐在那裡退後一步說,看,有很多人對這些產品感興趣。我們正在建立一個相當健康的供應位置。
So we got to put all that together when we put our 2022 guidance together formally. But I would say the initial receptivity continues to be strong. Our project remains online and on target. And the internal excitement here around what we can do with that product line is -- if you talked to Russ Minick and his team, I mean, he's incredibly bullish on what we're going to be able to do with that longer term.
因此,當我們正式將 2022 年指導意見放在一起時,我們必須將所有這些放在一起。但我會說最初的接受度仍然很強。我們的項目保持在線並達到目標。圍繞我們可以用該產品線做些什麼的內部興奮是 - 如果你與 Russ Minick 和他的團隊交談,我的意思是,他非常看好我們將能夠用這個長期做些什麼。
Joseph Amil Osha - Former MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Joseph Amil Osha - Former MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Excellent. And then a follow-up on the ecobee. As you point out, there's a lot of people trying to -- been terribly successful in that market. One of the things that people talk a lot about is full integrated home load management, right, which you guys are coming to potentially from a different spot, especially as you ramp storage and inverters. So I'm wondering when you have Chilicon and you have storage and you can offer that as part of a complete package, might you also go to customers and saying, hey, we can put in with this technology a complete home load management suite. Is that going to be part of what you're trying to do?
優秀。然後是對生態蜂的跟進。正如你所指出的,有很多人試圖——在那個市場上取得了巨大的成功。人們經常談論的一件事是完全集成的家庭負載管理,對,你們可能來自不同的地方,尤其是當你增加存儲和逆變器時。所以我想知道當您擁有 Chilicon 並且您擁有存儲空間時,您可以將其作為完整軟件包的一部分提供,您是否也可以去找客戶說,嘿,我們可以使用這項技術安裝一個完整的家庭負載管理套件。這會成為你想要做的事情的一部分嗎?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Absolutely. I mean we -- it is interesting. I think people just -- you hear that Generac acquired ecobee somebody says, why get into the thermostat business. I think that's a pretty, frankly, myopic view of what we're getting into. What we're getting into is the home energy ecosystem. And it's -- look, HVAC represents the largest energy load in the home today. That may change in the future with electrification of our transportation.
絕對地。我的意思是我們——這很有趣。我認為人們只是 - 你聽說 Generac 收購了 ecobee 有人說,為什麼要進入恆溫器業務。我認為這是對我們正在進入的事物的一種漂亮的、坦率的、短視的看法。我們正在進入的是家庭能源生態系統。它是——看,HVAC 代表了當今家庭中最大的能源負荷。未來,隨著我們交通的電氣化,這種情況可能會發生變化。
But today, it's the largest electrical load and the largest energy load in the home. You combine that with our generation capabilities, whether it be PV generation or whether it's using a natural gas generator, with storage, with our load management, with thermostatic control, water heater control, right, water heater is another massive load in the home.
但今天,它是家庭中最大的電力負荷和最大的能源負荷。您將其與我們的發電能力相結合,無論是光伏發電還是使用天然氣發電機、存儲、負載管理、恆溫控制、熱水器控制,對,熱水器是家庭中的另一個巨大負載。
You start looking across that spectrum you could see very quickly, Joe, where it makes a ton of sense for us to include ecobee thermostats or other grid edge devices with somebody who might be looking at a storage system or solar plus storage.
喬,您開始查看您可以很快看到的範圍,將ecobee恆溫器或其他電網邊緣設備與可能正在尋找存儲系統或太陽能加存儲的人包括在內對我們來說非常有意義。
Because when you think about it in the context of the total amount of money they're going to spend on that system, frankly, the grid edge devices being thermostats and water heater controllers and load management controls, they're relatively small, but they add a tremendous amount of value in rounding out the value proposition not only for the homeowner but also, again, for the grid operator.
因為當您考慮到他們將在該系統上花費的總金額時,坦率地說,電網邊緣設備是恆溫器、熱水器控制器和負載管理控制,它們相對較小,但它們不僅為房主而且為電網運營商完善價值主張,增加了巨大的價值。
I think that's where it gets really interesting is what we can do with that through our Concerto platform. So anyway, we're taking a really long view at this, but it's an exciting view of the world kind of in the future grid 2.0 context that I think you've got to step back and you've got to kind of see where the puck is going here, and that's kind of what we're doing with this acquisition.
我認為這才是真正有趣的地方,那就是我們可以通過我們的 Concerto 平台來做些什麼。所以無論如何,我們對此有一個非常長遠的看法,但在未來的網格 2.0 環境中,這是一個令人興奮的世界觀,我認為你必須退後一步,你必須看看在哪裡冰球正在這裡,這就是我們對這次收購所做的事情。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Mark Strouse from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mark Strouse。
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Aaron, I wanted to go back to a comment you made at the Analyst Day where you thought that you'd be able to get backlog back to a "normalized level" by the end of 2022. And even back then, you said there's a lot of factors that go into that. But just curious, over the past month, since you've made that statement, are you more optimistic, less optimistic on that ability?
Aaron,我想回到你在分析師日發表的評論,你認為到 2022 年底你可以將積壓工作恢復到“標準化水平”。甚至在那時,你說有一個很多因素都會影響到這一點。但只是好奇,在過去的一個月裡,自從你發表了那個聲明後,你對這種能力是更樂觀,更不樂觀嗎?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. I mean it's a great question, Mark, and one that we're talking about here as we put together our kind of formal guidance for 2022. I would say, informally, though, what our comment -- just answering your question directly about how I feel about it today versus maybe how I felt about it 4 or 6 weeks ago, when we put together the IR materials, the IR Day materials, I would say I'm less optimistic that we're going to be able to catch the full backlog next year as we exit the year.
是的。我的意思是這是一個很好的問題,馬克,我們在這裡討論的一個問題是我們將 2022 年的正式指南放在一起。不過,我會非正式地說,我們的評論是什麼——只是直接回答你關於如何我今天的感受與 4 或 6 週前的感受相比,當我們將 IR 材料、IR 日材料放在一起時,我會說我不太樂觀地認為我們能夠趕上明年我們退出時會完全積壓。
The demand has outstripped here over the last in the more recent period here as we ended Q3 and as we have come into Q4, it's just -- it's odd to me -- I mean -- and we really have had -- October for the most part, was a pretty quiet month on outages, but the demand has been continuing just to be off the charts.
在我們結束第三季度和進入第四季度的最近一段時間裡,需求已經超過了這裡的需求,這對我來說很奇怪——我的意思是——我們真的有在大多數情況下,這是一個非常安靜的停電月份,但需求一直在繼續,只是為了打破圖表。
I mean there's really no two ways to say it. I mean everything from our leading indicators like ICs to our lagging indicators like activations and then obviously, the incoming orders that are outstripping our kind of record production levels here. It just -- the setup there is -- and it's clear to us. As we continue to kind of peel back the onion on why that is, that the Home as a Sanctuary trend, the electrification of everything, the concern about just power security, power reliability, these things are real.
我的意思是真的沒有兩種說法。我的意思是從我們的領先指標(如 IC)到我們的滯後指標(如激活),然後很明顯,傳入的訂單超過了我們這裡創紀錄的生產水平。它只是 - 那裡的設置 - 我們很清楚。當我們繼續討論為什麼會這樣時,將家庭作為避難所的趨勢、一切電氣化、對電力安全、電力可靠性的關注,這些都是真實的。
These things are driving people to solutions like home standby generators and clean energy storage devices. And we're coming to a point of realization, I think that -- and it's why we made the comments about our commitments to the longer-term home standby capacity increases because we just feel like this is -- we're maybe at a tipping point here with this category, where we're just shy of what 6% penetration, I think, today and the acceleration on that is phenomenal. We could be entering a period here where this is something that we think about as -- that every home has to have. And there's a lot in between 6% and saying something that every home has to have. Remember, every 1% is $2.5 billion. So every 1% of penetration is $2.5 billion of market, and we're over 75% share in the space.
這些事情正在推動人們尋求家庭備用發電機和清潔能源存儲設備等解決方案。我們正在實現一個點,我認為——這就是為什麼我們對我們對長期家庭備用容量增加的承諾發表評論,因為我們只是覺得這是——我們可能正處於一個這個類別的臨界點在這裡,我認為我們今天的滲透率還不到 6%,而這方面的加速是驚人的。我們可能會進入一個時期,這是我們認為的——每個家庭都必須擁有的東西。在 6% 和每個家庭必須擁有的東西之間有很多東西。請記住,每 1% 就是 25 億美元。因此,每 1% 的滲透率就是 25 億美元的市場,我們在該領域的份額超過 75%。
So it's good math, right? I mean it's just -- it's a great setup, but we've got to be prepared for it. everything from the ability to produce these products to the ability to install and service the product. So there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus there has been tremendous amount of focus so far but there needs to be a lot more focus by us going forward on all those areas. So that we're ready for this so that we can enable this because the secular things that we're seeing out here causing it, we don't see changing anytime soon. So we've just got to be ready for it.
所以這是很好的數學,對吧?我的意思是——這是一個很棒的設置,但我們必須為此做好準備。從生產這些產品的能力到安裝和維修產品的能力。因此,將會有大量的關注點,到目前為止已經有大量的關注點,但我們需要更多地關注所有這些領域。所以我們為此做好了準備,以便我們可以啟用它,因為我們在這裡看到的世俗事物會導致它,我們不會很快看到改變。所以我們只需要為此做好準備。
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Okay. And then just a follow-up question on Phil's question, just about ecobee. I appreciate it's kind of the near-term outlook. What do you think the longer-term margin contribution is from that business? And then 2 b is what do you think the -- I guess, what are the clean power margins, generally speaking, today?
好的。然後是關於 Phil 問題的後續問題,關於 ecobee。我很欣賞它的近期前景。您認為該業務的長期利潤率貢獻是什麼?然後 2 b 是你認為的——我猜,今天一般來說,清潔功率邊際是多少?
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
Yes. So I guess when you think about ecobee and you look at -- as we ramp that up and they grow, their margin profile in the out years looks very similar to our clean energy business. We've talked about how that will probably be in the mid- to high teens EBITDA margins from a gross margin standpoint, closer to that mid-30% range.
是的。因此,我想當您考慮 ecobee 並且您會看到 - 隨著我們的增長和他們的增長,他們在未來幾年的利潤率狀況看起來與我們的清潔能源業務非常相似。我們已經討論過,從毛利率的角度來看,這可能會處於中高水平的 EBITDA 利潤率,接近 30% 的中間範圍。
So we would expect ecobee, again, in the out years to look similar to that overall clean energy business in the out years. Today, clean energy, just thinking storage, that is a profitable business today. We haven't quoted exactly what margin profile is. It's profitable today. But over time, over the next call it, few years, that will also grow into that mid- to high teens EBITDA margins as well. So we've got a road map and a path to get there.
因此,我們再次預計,在未來幾年內,ecobee 將與未來幾年的整體清潔能源業務相似。今天,清潔能源,僅考慮存儲,今天是一項有利可圖的業務。我們沒有準確引用保證金概況。今天是有利可圖的。但隨著時間的推移,在接下來的幾年裡,這也將增長到中高 EBITDA 利潤率。所以我們有一個路線圖和一條到達那裡的路徑。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord Genuity.
我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Jed Dorsheimer。
Jonathan Edward Dorsheimer - MD & Analyst
Jonathan Edward Dorsheimer - MD & Analyst
Congrats with ecobee. I've had the pleasure working with Stuart and I think he will definitely be a great fit to the Generac family there.
恭喜生態蜂。我很高興與 Stuart 一起工作,我認為他肯定會非常適合那裡的 Generac 家族。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
We're excited about it, Jed. Thanks.
我們很興奮,傑德。謝謝。
Jonathan Edward Dorsheimer - MD & Analyst
Jonathan Edward Dorsheimer - MD & Analyst
So I just -- Aaron, I guess first question, grid services. You were a bit more vocal than I've heard you in terms of some of the value proposition or unlocking the value proposition, I guess, with the installed base. And so I was wondering if you might be able to unpack that a little bit more. And so if I look out at installed capacity that's underutilized out in the field of generators, it looks like well over 20 gigawatts of generating capacity.
所以我只是-- Aaron,我想第一個問題是網格服務。在一些價值主張或解鎖價值主張方面,你比我聽到的更直言不諱,我猜,與安裝基礎。所以我想知道你是否可以再打開一點。因此,如果我查看在發電機領域未充分利用的裝機容量,它的發電容量看起來遠遠超過 20 吉瓦。
So now that you're going to be adding in this intelligence with ecobee, how do you get me if I have a 24-kilowatt generator to sign up for being able to access my generator when I don't need that through the Concerto, for example? And where are you in that process with utilities? Does that have to go through a rate case? Or how do you -- how does that kind of evolve to unlocking that 20-plus gigawatts?
所以現在你要通過 ecobee 添加這種智能,如果我有一個 24 千瓦的發電機來註冊,以便在我不需要時通過協奏曲訪問我的發電機,你如何獲得我,例如?你在這個過程中的實用程序在哪裡?這必須通過費率案例嗎?或者你是如何——這種方式如何演變為解鎖 20 多吉瓦的?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jed. I mean grid services, you're right. We were a little bit more vocal on that at this time because we continue to gain confidence based on, honestly, just the sheer number of proposals in our pipeline. It's changed dramatically in the 1 year that we've owned Enbala. The Concerto platform, they just did their latest release of the platform that adds additional functionality that adds, again, the smart grid ready capability to our products. We've added here initially the home standby generators, C&I gas generators, our PWRcell systems, even our PWRmanager, the load management device, we're making all of those smart grid ready.
是的。謝謝你的問題,傑德。我的意思是網格服務,你是對的。我們此時對此更加直言不諱,因為老實說,僅基於我們管道中的大量提案,我們繼續獲得信心。在我們擁有 Enbala 的 1 年裡,情況發生了巨大變化。 Concerto 平台,他們剛剛發布了最新版本的平台,增加了額外的功能,再次為我們的產品增加了智能電網就緒能力。我們最初在這裡添加了家用備用發電機、工商業燃氣發電機、我們的 PWRcell 系統,甚至我們的 PWRmanager、負載管理設備,我們正在為所有這些智能電網做好準備。
And as we see more proposals coming in, it gets us more and more excited about the opportunity to connect those assets through Concerto to these grid operators to be able to participate in these programs. I will tell you that there is still this -- I don't want to say it's a missing link, but there's the connection process of the marketing process, right, of going out to a utilities rate payers and saying, okay, we can walk in today. We've got this.
隨著我們看到越來越多的提案出現,我們越來越興奮有機會通過 Concerto 將這些資產連接到這些電網運營商,以便能夠參與這些計劃。我會告訴你,還有這個——我不想說它是一個缺失的環節,但是有一個營銷過程的連接過程,對,走出去向公用事業費率支付者說,好吧,我們可以今天走進去。我們有這個。
We demonstrated here at the Investor Day. You guys may have remembered back in our labs here, we showed our map, if you will, of the U.S. and where we can zoom in on all of the assets we have on the ground, these distributed energy resources, be they generators or be they storage systems or load management devices. And now going forward be they ecobee products like thermostats and sensors, we're going to put all of that into the map.
我們在投資者日進行了演示。你們可能還記得在我們的實驗室裡,我們展示了我們的地圖,如果你們願意的話,美國的地圖,我們可以放大我們在地面上擁有的所有資產,這些分佈式能源,無論是發電機還是它們是存儲系統或負載管理設備。現在,如果他們是恆溫器和傳感器等生態蜂產品,我們將把所有這些都放入地圖中。
But we can go to a local utility, and we can have a conversation with them that's much more than just, hey, tell us about your needs. We can go in there and we can say, hey, did you know that you have this many hundreds of megawatts available to you in your market that could be connected. It's on the ground today. These assets are there.
但是我們可以去當地的公用事業公司,我們可以與他們進行對話,而不僅僅是,嘿,告訴我們您的需求。我們可以進去,我們可以說,嘿,你知道你的市場上有數百兆瓦可供你使用,可以連接。今天在地上。這些資產在那裡。
And so -- and that's just -- it's stunning. The amount of information that provides to these utilities, they have no idea. They have no idea that this exists today. It's not something you have to do in the future. it's something they have today.
所以——這就是——這太棒了。提供給這些實用程序的信息量,他們不知道。他們不知道今天存在這種情況。這不是你將來必須做的事情。這是他們今天擁有的東西。
The next question is, okay, how do we connect it? How do we reach those consumers that own those assets and enroll them into the platform and then get them on these programs? So each utility is a little different, as you know. Some utilities move a little faster than others.
下一個問題是,好吧,我們如何連接它?我們如何接觸擁有這些資產的消費者並將他們註冊到平台,然後讓他們參與這些計劃?因此,如您所知,每個實用程序都有些不同。一些公用事業的移動速度比其他公用事業快一點。
Today, we're in pilot on a number of programs with some utilities around taking existing generator owners or existing PWRcell owners or new PWRcell owners and marketing to them the opportunity to enroll that asset. If they've already got it installed, great. If they don't, they can buy one, get it installed and get it enrolled.
今天,我們正在與一些公用事業公司合作開展多項計劃的試點,圍繞現有發電機所有者或現有 PWRcell 所有者或新 PWRcell 所有者向他們推銷註冊該資產的機會。如果他們已經安裝了它,那就太好了。如果他們不這樣做,他們可以購買一台,安裝並註冊。
We're going through pilot on a number of these programs, and we're already exercising control. We're giving the utilities control over these pilot programs. And they're very excited about what they think they can do and what they think it means to the way they operate their grids in the future.
我們正在對其中的一些項目進行試點,並且我們已經在進行控制。我們正在讓公用事業公司控制這些試點項目。他們對他們認為自己能做什麼以及他們認為這對他們未來運營電網的方式意味著什麼感到非常興奮。
Look, they have their backs against the wall, right? They are being mandated to -- and we all want to do this. We want to decarbonize our energy use. And that decarbonization is going to come from putting more renewables on the supply side. But with that comes more instability, right? So you talk about the change in the grid. There's the 3Ds, right, decarbonization, digitization and decentralization. That's what the new grid is going to look like.
看,他們背對著牆,對吧?他們被授權——我們都想這樣做。我們希望使我們的能源使用脫碳。脫碳將來自於將更多的可再生能源置於供應端。但隨之而來的是更多的不穩定,對吧?所以你談到了網格的變化。有3D,對,脫碳,數字化和權力下放。這就是新網格的樣子。
The pace that we're going to get there, though, creates a fourth D, create some destabilization potentially, right? So some instability around these renewables that are online that maybe are not as predictable for baseload usage. So what we have to do is we've got to give new tools to grid operators to solve for this challenge. A grid operator's entire day is consumed by figuring out how to keep supply and demand in balance.
但是,我們要達到的速度會產生第四個 D,可能會造成一些不穩定,對嗎?因此,這些在線可再生能源的一些不穩定性可能無法預測基本負荷的使用。所以我們要做的是我們必須為電網運營商提供新的工具來解決這一挑戰。電網運營商的一整天都花在弄清楚如何保持供需平衡上。
And that's exactly what the Concerto platform does. That's why we continue to add more grid assets like ecobee into our mix because we think that the more assets we can deliver to these grid operators and utilities the more value as a partner we're going to bring. And certainly, more value we're going to bring to the homeowner in terms of them being able to control and optimize their energy consumption. So really exciting future around that, but it's really all about grid services down the line. And that's why we talk more about it today.
而這正是 Concerto 平台所做的。這就是為什麼我們繼續在我們的組合中添加更多像 ecobee 這樣的電網資產,因為我們認為我們可以向這些電網運營商和公用事業公司提供的資產越多,我們作為合作夥伴的價值就越大。當然,我們將為房主帶來更多價值,讓他們能夠控制和優化能源消耗。圍繞它的未來真的很令人興奮,但它實際上都是關於網格服務的。這就是為什麼我們今天更多地談論它。
Jonathan Edward Dorsheimer - MD & Analyst
Jonathan Edward Dorsheimer - MD & Analyst
That's great. And great explanation. Just as my follow-up, I want to shift gears a little bit, Aaron, just ask you about Europe. It's rare that you see a setup that seems this obvious. So as you kind of look at the many of the misguided policies that Europe's pursuing and how that sets up for an opportunity to capture the lack of resilience that going into this winter, how are you thinking about positioning the business?
那太棒了。和很好的解釋。就像我的後續行動一樣,我想稍微改變一下,亞倫,問你關於歐洲的事。您很少看到如此明顯的設置。因此,當您看到歐洲所奉行的許多誤導性政策,以及這些政策如何為抓住進入今年冬天缺乏彈性的機會創造了機會時,您如何考慮定位業務?
I mean I know you're your supply constrained right now and you're trying to do what you can in Trenton, but it seems like demand could just explode out of Europe. And I'm wondering how you're thinking about that in terms of being able to capture that value.
我的意思是我知道你現在的供應受到限制,你正在特倫頓盡你所能,但似乎需求可能會從歐洲爆發出來。我想知道你是如何看待這個價值的。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. It's an area of the world that, as you said, it's kind of an obvious one in terms of just the challenges and the challenging set up here going into the winter months for the Europeans in the way that they're -- in some cases, their dangerous energy situation there. And our products can help, I mean, the interest level in particular, on home standby which picked up.
是的。正如你所說,這是世界上的一個地區,就歐洲人進入冬季的挑戰和挑戰而言,這是一個顯而易見的地區——在某些情況下,他們危險的能量狀況在那裡。我的意思是,我們的產品可以幫助提高家庭待機的興趣水平。
We saw that very broadly as well with Home as a Sanctuary last year. We saw interest outside the U.S. pick up far beyond anything we had seen previously for the category. And so -- but you're right, we're supply constrained. That's the unfortunate side of things. But we're still getting product over there. We're up dramatically in what we're delivering to Europe. It's still very small as a base, but it's growing very quickly.
去年,我們在 Home as a Sanctuary 中也廣泛地看到了這一點。我們看到美國以外的人對該類別的興趣遠遠超過我們之前看到的任何東西。所以 - 但你是對的,我們供應有限。這就是事情不幸的一面。但我們仍然在那裡得到產品。我們向歐洲提供的產品大幅增加。作為一個基礎,它仍然非常小,但它的增長速度非常快。
Storage is another area. We think that we have an opportunity there. It's probably a little bit further out as we deliver on some modifications to our existing PWRcell system. We'll have a new system coming out in 2023, and that system is probably going to be a little bit better fit for some of the European applications. But we are looking at how we might go after that market more aggressively here because it's going to take it's going to take some time to get our distribution and our go-to-market approach under us there.
存儲是另一個領域。我們認為我們在那裡有機會。當我們對現有的 PWRcell 系統進行一些修改時,它可能會更進一步。我們將在 2023 年推出一個新系統,該系統可能會更適合一些歐洲應用程序。但是我們正在研究如何在這裡更積極地追逐這個市場,因為這需要一些時間才能讓我們的分銷和進入市場的方法在那裡得到控制。
So working on that. I will point out the Off Grid acquisition that we did is all about what's going on in Europe, right, with storage in general on the C&I side, we're seeing a lot of opportunities there -- certainly in the rental markets to provide storage for the different applications there, whether it be entertainment applications or construction applications or things like that, where clearly, the high cost of diesel fuel and even the availability in some cases, the fuel in general, is causing challenges.
所以正在努力。我要指出的是,我們所做的離網收購完全是關於歐洲正在發生的事情,對,在 C&I 方面的一般存儲,我們在那裡看到了很多機會——當然是在租賃市場提供存儲對於那裡的不同應用,無論是娛樂應用還是建築應用或類似的東西,很明顯,柴油燃料的高成本,甚至在某些情況下,燃料的可用性,都帶來了挑戰。
So we're seeing storage systems like the Off Grid systems become a lot more popular. That asset is in the short period of time we've owned it, just the order book there has been really fun to kind of watch that grow as those products get introduced. We introduced them to our legacy channel partners there. But yes, Europe represents a huge market opportunity. We're going to stay focused on it, but I'd love to say that we're going to be able to do something more there next year, but we got a tiger by the tail here in North America as well.
所以我們看到像離網系統這樣的存儲系統變得越來越流行。該資產是在我們擁有它的短時間內,只是那裡的訂單簿對於隨著這些產品的推出而增長的手錶來說真的很有趣。我們將它們介紹給了我們在那裡的傳統渠道合作夥伴。但是,是的,歐洲代表著巨大的市場機會。我們將繼續專注於它,但我想說的是,明年我們將能夠在那裡做更多的事情,但我們在北美也有一隻老虎的尾巴。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question will be from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。
David Edmund Tarantino - Research Analyst
David Edmund Tarantino - Research Analyst
This is David Tarantino on for Jeff. So just kind of attacking the supply chain headwinds from a different angle. Could you just provide some color on how the extended lead times to 30 weeks balances out between supply shortages and then just the underlying demand strength?
這是傑夫的大衛塔倫蒂諾。所以只是從不同的角度攻擊供應鏈的逆風。您能否就延長至 30 週的交貨期如何在供應短缺和潛在需求強度之間取得平衡提供一些顏色?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes. It's really more of the -- I would say, the underlying demand strength because we're just -- the order book has continued to be very, very strong. There's certainly some component, as I said, our ability to ramp to the theoretical capacity numbers we talked about for next year, midyear next year, may be somewhat constrained by supply chain in the short term. We still think that's probably maybe a first half '22 story and then should abate.
是的。這實際上更多的是——我會說,潛在的需求強度,因為我們只是——訂單繼續非常非常強勁。正如我所說,肯定有一些因素,我們提高到明年,明年年中討論的理論產能數字的能力,可能在短期內受到供應鏈的限制。我們仍然認為這可能是 22 年上半年的故事,然後應該會減弱。
But I would say we're more constrained right now just based on the inability to just go beyond what -- as we get the up the learning curve here in Trenton and as we put a second line on in Jefferson and then as we go into next year with the new tooling that's going to get delivered there, that's just kind of the pacing of getting to those levels that we've talked about.
但我想說的是,我們現在受到的限制更大,因為我們無法超越什麼——當我們在特倫頓的學習曲線上升時,當我們在杰斐遜設置第二條線路時,然後當我們進入明年隨著將在那裡交付的新工具,這只是達到我們討論過的那些水平的節奏。
And certainly, some supply chain constraints today causing that. But I would say it's more just demand outstripping. Even if we were able to produce at max capacity today, I fear that demand would be outstripping that given where we're at. So it's more -- I think it's more of that than it is supply chain constraints.
當然,今天的一些供應鏈限制導致了這種情況。但我會說這更多的是需求超過了需求。即使我們今天能夠以最大產能生產,我擔心需求會超過我們所處的位置。所以更多——我認為這不僅僅是供應鏈限制。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Pearce Hammond from Piper Sandler.
我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Pearce Hammond。
Pearce Wheless Hammond - Research Analyst
Pearce Wheless Hammond - Research Analyst
Specifically related to acquisitions, you made a number of acquisitions here recently. Just curious if you're going to pause to try to digest some of these and integrate. And then if you are looking for future acquisitions, what white space is still available within this energy technology solutions kind of mandate?
具體與收購有關,您最近在這裡進行了一些收購。只是好奇你是否要停下來嘗試消化其中的一些並整合。然後,如果您正在尋找未來的收購,那麼在這種能源技術解決方案的授權範圍內還有哪些空白空間?
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
That's a great question, Pearce. We have done a lot of acquisitions this year. We've done 6 of them with the ecobee acquisition was #6 this year. That's a lot for us. And I don't think we started the year, we didn't set out the year to do 6. Acquisition timing, what we've learned over the years of doing -- I think we've done something like 23 or 24 deals now. That -- the timing of those deals, we generally don't dictate that. It's generally dictated by sellers or dictated by market processes, things like that.
這是一個很好的問題,皮爾斯。今年我們進行了很多收購。我們已經完成了其中的 6 次,今年收購的 ecobee 排名第 6。這對我們來說很多。而且我不認為我們從今年開始,我們沒有設定這一年做 6. 收購時機,我們多年來所做的事情 - 我認為我們已經完成了 23 或 24 筆交易現在。那 - 這些交易的時間安排,我們通常不會規定。它通常由賣家決定或由市場流程決定,諸如此類。
So it just happened that this year, we got 6 that came to us. We have a really strong team here. And thankfully, the acquisitions have actually been spread out nicely across our C&I business, across our residential business, across our clean energy businesses. So the teams have been able to absorb them.
所以碰巧今年,我們收到了 6 個。我們在這裡有一支非常強大的團隊。值得慶幸的是,這些收購實際上已經很好地分佈在我們的 C&I 業務、住宅業務和清潔能源業務中。所以團隊已經能夠吸收他們。
I think they haven't all been in 1 particular part of our business, which I think is good. In fact, some of them were international, right, like the Off Grid acquisition.
我認為他們並沒有參與我們業務的某一特定部分,我認為這很好。事實上,其中一些是國際性的,對,比如收購離網。
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
And Deep Sea.
和深海。
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
And Deep Sea, those acquisitions are being handled by the international teams. So I don't think that we'll sit here and say, okay, let's stop and not do any more acquisitions because we need to absorb these. I think what we'll say is, how do we go find the resources to do the integration needed so that we can continue to accelerate our strategy, right? That's what -- we use acquisitions to accelerate strategy.
而深海,這些收購正在由國際團隊處理。所以我不認為我們會坐在這裡說,好吧,讓我們停下來,不再進行任何收購,因為我們需要吸收這些。我想我們要說的是,我們如何找到資源來進行所需的整合,以便我們能夠繼續加速我們的戰略,對吧?就是這樣——我們使用收購來加速戰略。
Some people have this narrative out there that acquisitions are there, we're buying revenue, we're trying to obfuscate certain things. I have no idea if that's about looking at our strategy, look at the acquisitions we've done this year, and it's a spot on fit for everything we're doing with strategy. So wherever we think we can accelerate strategy, we're going to use acquisitions.
有些人有這樣的說法,即收購存在,我們正在購買收入,我們試圖混淆某些事情。我不知道這是否是關於我們的戰略,看看我們今年完成的收購,這是適合我們在戰略上所做的一切的地方。因此,只要我們認為可以加速戰略,我們就會使用收購。
As far as white space is concerned, there are still some areas out there that when you look at the residential space, continue to look at like heavy amperage loads in the home, I think there's some spaces there where whether it's -- it could be in EV charging, it could be in other types of appliances that might have -- where control of those things might be important.
就白色空間而言,仍然有一些區域,當您查看住宅空間時,繼續看家中的大電流負載,我認為那裡的一些空間是否 - 它可能是在電動汽車充電中,它可能存在於其他類型的設備中——這些設備的控制可能很重要。
Although I will say we've taken a big step forward with ecobee. But on the C&I side, we still have some other areas. The Off Grid acquisition, while giving us a nice head start on energy storage for C&I is still -- it was really more aimed at the mobile applications or rental applications. So I think there are some things there that we'd like to round out. But we've made some significant progress towards this effort of building the home energy ecosystem this year and also getting going on our C&I storage.
雖然我會說我們在 ecobee 方面邁出了一大步。但在工商業方面,我們還有其他一些領域。收購離網,雖然讓我們在 C&I 的能源存儲方面取得了良好的開端,但它實際上更多地針對移動應用程序或租賃應用程序。所以我認為我們想要完善一些事情。但是,我們今年在構建家庭能源生態系統的努力方面取得了一些重大進展,並且還開始了我們的 C&I 存儲。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
This is Ashok Sivamohan on for Jerry Revich. In terms of the cost headwinds in the fourth quarter, can you describe how much is expected to be transient versus permanent?
這是 Jerry Revich 的 Ashok Sivamohan。就第四季度的成本逆風而言,您能否描述一下預期是暫時的還是永久性的?
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
I guess, I mean, if you look at the impacts of commodities...
我想,我的意思是,如果你看看商品的影響......
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Aaron P. Jagdfeld - President, CEO & Chairman
Yes, it's going to depend on your commodity cost.
是的,這將取決於您的商品成本。
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
When we say logistics, too, there's like expediting costs because when there's supply chain constraints, you're expediting more. So it's not just the cost of a container, you're doing some things maybe artificially to get it here faster. So I guess, what is your view on steel, copper and aluminum, I guess, that's one answer to your question.
當我們說物流時,也有加快成本,因為當存在供應鏈限制時,你會加快速度。所以這不僅僅是一個容器的成本,你正在做一些人為的事情來更快地把它送到這裡。所以我想,你對鋼、銅和鋁的看法是什麼,我想,這是你問題的一個答案。
Logistics, as long as things are busy and demand is strong, there's going to be supply chain constraints for a while, at least it's well documented that way. But at some point, things will normalize here with the supply chain and logistics and then things -- costs should normalize at that point. So I guess all of this is transient, if you have a little bit longer-term view.
物流,只要事情很忙,需求旺盛,一段時間內就會出現供應鏈限制,至少這樣有據可查。但在某些時候,供應鍊和物流會正常化,然後成本應該會正常化。所以我想這一切都是暫時的,如果你有一點長遠的看法。
But what I will say is the impact of the costs -- higher input costs is going to be transient as we roll in our pricing actions and other cost reduction initiatives. So the impact of them will be transient.
但我要說的是成本的影響——隨著我們推出定價行動和其他降低成本的舉措,更高的投入成本將是暫時的。因此,它們的影響將是暫時的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi from Credit Suisse.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Just a quick one on the working capital as we kind of look into the next 2 quarters. Should we expect similar working capital increase for Q4 and Q1 because of the inventory challenge this year?
在我們展望接下來的兩個季度時,只需快速了解一下營運資金。由於今年的庫存挑戰,我們是否應該期望第四季度和第一季度出現類似的營運資金增加?
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
York A. Ragen - CFO & CAO
Yes. No. I mean, I think I highlighted 4 things that are causing elevated inventory, just it's taking longer for things to get here. So the transit times are extended. The supply chain constraints are caused when certain components don't arrive to the line and everything else does, you get a little bit of backup in inventory. We are ramping production.
是的。不。我的意思是,我認為我強調了導致庫存增加的 4 件事,只是事情需要更長的時間才能到達這裡。所以運輸時間延長了。當某些組件沒有到達生產線而其他所有組件都到達生產線時,就會導致供應鏈限制,您會在庫存中獲得一點備份。我們正在增加產量。
So to the extent we're wrapping production, that should continue. And we're basically -- and once we get Trenton up and running, too, that's going to be increasing as well as we go into Q1 next year. So I'd probably say relative to the ramping part of the discussion, that will continue into Q1. But I think with regards to the longer in-transit times and just the supply chain constraints, I think that probably has worked its way through and hopefully should level off here into next year.
因此,就我們包裝生產而言,這應該會繼續下去。而且我們基本上 - 一旦我們讓特倫頓啟動並運行,這將隨著我們明年進入第一季度而增加。所以我可能會說相對於討論的激烈部分,這將持續到第一季度。但我認為,就較長的運輸時間和供應鏈限製而言,我認為這可能已經解決了,希望到明年應該會趨於平穩。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. Michael, please continue.
目前沒有其他問題。邁克爾,請繼續。
Michael W. Harris - VP of Corporate Development & IR
Michael W. Harris - VP of Corporate Development & IR
We want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter 2021 earnings results with you in mid-February. Thank you again, and goodbye.
我們要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 2 月中旬與您討論我們 2021 年第四季度的收益結果。再次感謝,再見。
Operator
Operator
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
這確實結束了我們今天的會議。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。