Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (GNK) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Genco Shipping & Trading Limited Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Presentation. Before we begin, please note that there will be a slide presentation accompanying today's conference call. That presentation can be obtained from Genco's website at www.gencoshipping.com. To inform everyone, today's conference is being recorded and is now being webcast at the company's website, www.gencoshipping.com. (Operator Instructions)

A replay of the conference will be accessible any time during the next 2 weeks by dialing (888) 203-1112 or (719) 457-0820 and entering the passcode of 8667167.

At this time, I will turn the conference over to the company. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Before we begin our presentation, I note that in this conference call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements use words such as anticipate, budget, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe and other words in terms of similar meaning in connection with the discussion of potential future events, circumstances or future operating or financial performance. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and observations. For a discussion of factors that could cause results to differ, please see the company's press release that was issued yesterday, the materials relating to this call posted on the company's website and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, and the company's reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K subsequently filed with the SEC.

At this time, I would like to introduce John Wobensmith, Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited.

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Genco's third quarter 2021 conference call. I will begin today's call by reviewing our year-to-date highlights, providing an update on the company's comprehensive value strategy, financial results for the quarter and the industry's current fundamentals before opening the call up for questions. For additional information, please also refer to our earnings presentation posted on our website.

Since announcing our comprehensive value strategy in April, we have worked diligently to implement this strategy to drive shareholder value. Our approach centers around growth, financial deleveraging and positioning Genco to distribute compelling dividends. During the third quarter, we continued to execute on key initiatives covering all components of our strategy and are on schedule to declare our first dividend under our new policy.

In terms of opportunistic growth, during the quarter, we grew our core minor bulk fleet to 27 vessels on a pro forma basis, which effectively complements our major bulk fleet of 17 Capesize vessels. By taking delivery of 4 Ultramaxes in August and September, we now have more than doubled the number of Ultramaxes we owned at this time last year, strengthening our position to benefit from the favorable fundamentals in this sector. Additionally, we expect delivery of 2 additional Ultramaxes in January of next year to further augment our earnings power.

We also made significant progress proactively deleveraging, repaying $144.2 million of debt or 32% of the beginning of the year debt balance through September. Given the strong market in the year-to-date and the important role deleveraging plays in our value strategy, we accelerated our debt repayments to further fortify our balance sheet as we position the company to distribute sizable dividends in diverse rate environments. Importantly, both our debt paydowns as well as vessel acquisitions were funded without the need to raise equity capital in the public markets, highlighting not only the significant operating cash flows of the company in the year-to-date, but also the strong financial foundation that we have built over the last several years.

Additionally, we closed on a $450 million credit facility, which includes a $300 million revolver. This facility has improved key terms and helped to lower our cash flow breakeven rates, which Apostolos will discuss in further detail later on the call.

Regarding returning capital to shareholders and our current quarterly dividend for the third quarter, we increased our payout to $0.15 per share, our third consecutive quarterly increase. We have now declared a total of $1.055 per share in dividends over the last 9 quarters. We expect to continue on this upward dividend trajectory with the first dividend under our value strategy to be paid based on Q4 2021 results during Q1 2022.

As outlined in our presentation, our quarterly dividend calculation to be applied next quarter is based on operating cash flow, less debt repayments, drydocking CapEx and a reserve. We plan to repay $59 million of debt in Q4 2021, reducing our debt balance to $246 million by year-end, representing what would be a 45% decrease from the start of 2021. We estimate that our December 31, 2021, debt balance will be approximately 60% of the current scrap value of our fleet, highlighting our strong financial standing. We believe this low financial leverage position, together with a compelling and consistent dividend, will provide an attractive risk/reward balance that has been absent in drybulk shipping historically.

Furthermore, our reserve for the fourth quarter is expected to be $10.75 million, which is based on $8.75 million of voluntary debt repayments planned to be made in the first quarter of 2022 as well as estimated cash interest expense on our debt. Continuing to pay down debt despite having no mandatory debt repayments required is consistent with our medium-term goal to reduce our net debt position to 0 and our longer-term goal of 0 debt. We are focused on rewarding shareholders in the near term through compelling dividends while continuing to delever to be in a position to reward shareholders over the longer term and support sustainable dividends.

We view this as prudent to further improve our financial standing over time to put Genco in an even stronger position to take advantage of attractive growth opportunities as markets develop. The reserve will be assessed on a quarterly basis by management and the Board of Directors and will be communicated in advance. Our quarterly reserve as well as optionality for the uses of the reserve are important factors of the corporate strategy as it enables Genco to be flexible, depending on market conditions and provide a more tailored approach to Genco's overall business model.

In addition to the measures taken to execute our value strategy from an earnings perspective, the third quarter was our strongest in over a decade, led by net income of $57 million and our time charter equivalent rate of $29,287 per day.

Additionally, our third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $79.8 million, which to put in perspective is higher than adjusted EBITDA for all of 2020. Looking ahead into the fourth quarter, our estimates point to continued strong results with a TCE of approximately $37,000 per day based on fixtures to date across the fleet for 71% of our owned available days.

Consistent with our portfolio approach to fixture activity, which consists of mostly spot trading and opportunistic period time charters and forward cargo coverage, we have fixed 7 vessels on period time charters for 1 to 2 years at rates ranging from $23,375 to $32,000 per day. To best illustrate this, in our earnings release, we have broken out our fourth quarter TCE estimates, highlighting our spot TCE in the quarter to date, which on our Capesize and Ultra Supramax fleet is approximately $51,000 and $37,600, respectively.

Importantly, in line with our portfolio approach, we also have approximately 20% of our Capesize days for the first quarter of 2022 fixed at $28,500 per day. While we expect traditional freight rate seasonality to materialize in the coming months, we believe we are in a cyclical drybulk market upturn. There remains solid visibility, particularly on the supply side, given the historically low newbuilding order book that will be supportive for the market over the coming years.

At this point, I will now turn the call over to Apostolos Zafolias, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you, John. For the third quarter of 2021, the company recorded net income of $57.1 million or $1.36 basic and $1.34 diluted earnings per share. Adjusted for the loss on debt extinguishment related to our financing and loss on sale of vessels, adjusted earnings per share were $1.47 basic and $1.44 diluted, respectively.

During the quarter, we continued to further strengthen our balance sheet through operating cash flows by taking advantage of fair market conditions. Our cash position as of September 30, 2021, was $80.5 million, following $144.2 million of debt repayments through the first 9 months, together with $108.7 million paid to acquire vessels over that same period. Following substantial deleveraging, our debt outstanding is $305 million at the end of the quarter, which after considering our cash position, results in a net debt figure of $225 million.

In August, we closed our new credit facility. The new facility consists of a 5-year term loan together with a significant revolver that can be used for growth. This new debt structure will provide improved capital allocation flexibility and significantly reduce our cash flow breakeven rate, which combined with the strength of our balance sheet provides a solid foundation for our value strategy and our focus on distributing sizable dividends to shareholders in diverse rate environments.

As we continue to implement our comprehensive value strategy, we plan to pay down $59 million of debt during the fourth quarter to reach a target year-end balance of $246 million, further strengthening our balance sheet. Based on our year-end target debt balance, we would have no mandatory debt amortization payments until December 2025. Regardless of this favorable mandatory amortization schedule, we plan to continue to voluntarily pay down debt with a medium-term objective of reducing our net debt to 0.

This new facility will also lead to a reduced cash flow breakeven rate for the company. Our fourth quarter 2021 estimated breakeven rate, excluding any voluntary debt prepayments, is $8,190 per vessel per day. Our total ownership days for the fourth quarter are estimated to be 3,896, and we anticipate 3 minor bulk vessels to enter drydock, resulting in approximately $2.9 million of costs and 60 days of estimated off-hire time during the quarter.

Lastly, during the third quarter, we completed the sale of the Genco Lorraine, and we have now also delivered the Genco Provence to her new owners in November, receiving gross proceeds of $13.25 million.

I will now turn the call over to Peter Allen, our SVP of Strategy, to discuss the industry fundamentals.

Thank you, Apostolos. During the third quarter of this year, freight rates continued to increase to decade-plus highs, driven by augmented demand for raw materials, an improving coal trade and seasonally strong iron ore volumes from Brazil as well as a continued reduction in fleet-wide productivity.

[Spot] freight rates remained on the uptrend in early October with Capesize rates exceeding $85,000 per day and Supramax earnings approaching $40,000 per day. Capesize and Supramax rates have pulled back from these decade-plus highs to approximately $27,000 and $30,000 respectively. This has been driven by easing of port congestion in recent weeks, declining steel production in China and the beginning of the seasonal slowdown in iron ore shipments towards year-end.

Despite this recent downward volatility, there are still positive factors currently at play in the market, including increased demand for seaborne coal due to low inventory levels among several countries who had a peak winter demand season as well as historically low newbuilding orderbook. Furthermore, while China's government has been tightening policies throughout 2021, there is the expectation that in the coming months, the government may become more accommodative into 2022 with more emphasis on achieving economic growth targets.

Heading into 2021, our view was for a substantial recovery in demand for drybulk commodities in ex-China markets. China had led the drybulk recovery from COVID-related lows in 2020, while the rest of the world gradually began to recover towards year-end. However, in 2021, we have seen a meaningful uplift in economic activity and drybulk demand ex-China, highlighted by steel production increasing by 16% year-over-year. This has been a welcome strength as China's output has slowed from record highs seen since May.

While China steel production historically peaks in the second quarter, seaborne iron ore shipments, the largest driver of drybulk trade, historically peak during the second half of the year. To that end, we have seen less of a correlation between China's steel output and iron ore imports this year and over the last decade. This is highlighted by freight rates reaching such strong levels in September and October despite lower levels of Chinese steel production.

Going forward, we anticipate the usual seasonal drybulk trends to materialize in the coming months, highlighted by the onset of wet weather conditions in Brazil and Australia, which will likely limit cargo availability in those regions; the timing of newbuilding deliveries at the beginning of the year; winter steel output restrictions in China; as well as the timing of the Lunar New Year, which coincides with the Beijing Olympics in February. Despite near-term volatility, we believe we are in a cyclical uptrending market that came into balance in 2017 but was interrupted along the way by unique events, including the Vale dam incident and COVID-19.

Our positive go-forward thesis for the drybulk market is underpinned by the historically low orderbook. The orderbook as a percentage of the fleet is 6.8%, which compares to 7% of the fleet that is greater than or equal to 20 years old, implying fleet renewal more than material net fleet growth in the coming years. Encouragingly, newbuilding vessel ordering has been relatively low this year despite the strong market conditions. Net fleet growth in the year-to-date is approximately 3%, which combined with increased port congestion throughout the year has led to a reduction in global fleet-wide productivity. Overall, we believe these positive supply-side dynamics provide a solid foundation for the drybulk market and lead to a low threshold for demand growth (inaudible) exceed in order to improve fleet-wide utilization and in turn freight rates.

This concludes our presentation, and we would now be happy to take your questions.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Randy Giveans with Jefferies.

So yes, congrats, obviously, on the best quarter since 2008. I'm sure I'll say it again next quarter. But let's talk about the spot market, right? Capesize rates, very profitable levels still. However, they have fallen, right, from over $80,000, $85,000 a day a little over a month ago to under $30,000 a day currently. So I guess, in your view, what's driving this recent Capesize volatility? And what's your outlook for the coming weeks and months as we head into kind of the seasonally soft first quarter?

As Pete mentioned, Randy, I mean I think there are a few things going on here. We're clearly seeing unwinding of congestion in ports, which is no surprise because that's also on the back of lower iron ore imports, which is mostly a seasonal factor. But also we have seen obviously low steel production utilization numbers in China, which I think we're all aware is related mostly to power concerns in China and really putting their people in front of industry, which is obviously the right move by the Chinese government.

I also think there's a tremendous amount of volatility in the FFA market, and it can and does have short-term effects on the physical market. I think there's been a lot more financial players that have come into the FFA market over the last 12 months. And as soon as you have some downward volatility, you can have some -- if stop losses kick in, you can have some wild, violent swings, which is what I think we've seen. And when that calms down, which it seems to be calming down, usually you then have a more stable physical market.

So going to outlook, I actually believe that we could have another push up from where we are before the end of the year. But I do think we're entering a more seasonal soft period as we get into -- in the first quarter. As -- I'm going to be optimistic and hope that the power issues and the coal stockpiles in China are sorted out mid-first quarter, and I believe steel production, once we get past the Olympics and Chinese New Year will recover.

I mean you have to keep -- I mean if you put this into perspective, we're at, I don't know, somewhere around 78%, 80% utilization in the Chinese steel market today. And even if steel production remains flat for 2022 over 2021, we actually think there's going to be a couple of points of growth. But let's just say it remains flat, that still shows a normal and probably fairly large seasonal recovery in steel production in the second quarter.

And I'm probably going on a little too long here, but let's not just focus on China, let's focus on the rest of the world, too. We're seeing steel production recover across the globe. We're seeing, anyway, another 4% to 5% in projected GDP growth for next year. All that bodes well for drybulk shipping, particularly when you're talking about a supply orderbook maybe deliveries of around 2% next year. You just don't need that much demand growth to continue building off of what we've seen this year. So hopefully -- that was a long answer, but hopefully, I covered your question.

It does. Yes. And I think we're on the same page. And the coal trade should be continuing to be elevated here in the coming weeks and months. And -- so all fair. I guess more Genco specific. You mentioned your total debt will be under $250 million by year-end. With that, you won't have any amort due next year, but obviously, you want to continue to reduce your debt levels. So just curious how was the $8.75 million of quarterly debt determined for 1Q '22 and what will cause this trend to go higher or lower as the year progresses? Basically, just trying to get a sense for that expected reserve amount throughout 2022.

So look, it's a great question. And I would say, in general, we will be looking at this as, on a quarter-by-quarter basis, giving advanced guidance on a quarterly basis. But if you take the reserve that we put in place for the fourth quarter and you do put a run rate on that, you'll get to $35 million of debt amort for 2022. What that $35 million does is that, obviously, we continue to pay down debt, though we're not -- we're at a level now where we're at 60% of scrap value of the fleet. But as Apostolos said, we do want to continue to delever.

And 1 more year of $30 million, $35 million of debt amort, then there is no amortization whatsoever on this credit facility until the term expires towards the end of 2026. So what we've effectively done is turned a bank credit facility into a nonamortizing bond with all the flexibility that you get from a bank facility to be able to borrow and repay with the revolver that you don't necessarily get in the bond market. And by the way, priced very well at LIBOR plus 2.15.

So that was some of the thoughts around what we're targeting. But as I said, we can tailor it on a quarter-by-quarter basis. But if you do the numbers, you get to the run rate of $35 million. And I think the biggest -- we've said this many times, we actually really want to make sure that we can put our hand on our heart and say we have a sustainable dividend model throughout any cycle, and the only way to do that is to continue to delever.

And I do think we're in a -- we're in just a fantastic spot right now. It's -- we're in a better spot than the company ever has been, and I think we've got the brightest long-term future that the company ever has -- ever had. So -- and it's -- we obviously want to reward shareholders in the short term, but we also want to reward the shareholders that are going to be in the company 5 to 10 years from now as well. So that's the purpose of the model, and I think it's a great risk/reward balance.

Yes. We agree. And yes, looking forward to the bigger dividends going forward.

Our next question comes from Omar Nokta with Clarksons Securities.

I wanted to follow up on Randy's question just kind of about the market and how you're perceiving things. And then clearly, there -- and I know Peter had mentioned this in his remarks as well about the separation for a while there on the steel production and what was going on in China and then Cape rates still being very firm. Recently, obviously, things have come off, but you could make the case that the outlook remains very constructive. How does this -- with your view, how does it affect your trades business? Did you see an opportunity in this sort of air pocket that we're experiencing to bolster that charter in fleet?

So you mean a charter in or charter out, Omar?

The charter in, to take advantage of lower rates here to near term?

Yes. No, look, fair enough. Keep in mind, we do not have a business model where we charter in on a naked basis, if you will. So what the chartering group has been doing is -- like it normally does is continues to take forward cargoes and then create arbitrage opportunities by chartering in. So booking, obviously, a higher rate on the cargo and then chartering it at a cheaper rate. I think those opportunities are coming to be more and more apparent. So the answer is yes, but you will not see us go into the long-term charter market and charter in ships blindly, if you will, without having some sort of cargo that at least derisks the front end or the initial backhaul voyage.

Okay. Got it.

But I do see more arbitrage opportunities as we go into the first quarter right now.

Got it. And then wanted to ask on the sale and purchase front, it's been 6 or 7 months since you established the plan to transition to a capital allocation policy. And along the way, as you delevered, you've acquired ships. You have 2 more deliveries coming next -- or in January. What are your thoughts at the moment on the acquisition front? Are you -- do you take a step back and focus now on just taking these deliveries, paying down in debt and preparing the dividend policy? Or do you still see a chance to go out and acquire ships?

I think there's -- I would say there's a little bit of a pause right now. Values certainly have moved up nicely, which we're obviously happy about from a fleet standpoint and an NAV standpoint. The transactions that we did over the last 5 or 6 months, we could buy vessels and put them away on 2-year charters to derisk the purchase and pay off 50% on a unlevered return on capital basis, EBITDA 50% over the 2 years of that charter. That's just extremely compelling, and we've been able to do that. Those opportunities are not there right now. But I would also caution, a lot of it just has to do with all the volatility in the FFA market, which I do believe is going to calm down, and I do think opportunities will present themselves again. So a little bit of a pause, I would say, going into year-end. Paying down the debt, that's the top priority is to pay down the $246 million, and then we'll assess what the next move is.

Makes sense. And then just finally, just to confirm, those final 2 Ultras coming in January, those are going to be funded fully with cash?

Correct.

Our next question comes from Magnus Fyhr with H.C. Wainwright.

Just a couple of questions here. Following up on the dividend strategy, you mentioned the sustainability of the strategy going forward. You fixed 7 vessels on time charters, that's about 85% of the fleet. Do you have any targeted level going forward? I know rates have been all over the place here. But just curious to see your thoughts there to improve the visibility of earnings going forward with time charters.

Yes. So we don't have a target percentage at this point, Magnus, but I do see us taking, as the market allows, more of the Capesize exposure off the table to derisk. I don't see us doing the entire fleet. And I also -- we're pretty happy with the 2-year charters that we've done so far that have been above $30,000. It's much more of an opportunistic approach to it when we see something that makes sense. When we're able to do those charters, those were done a few thousand dollars above where the -- what the FFA curve would have shown for that period of charter. So we looked at that as a very good trade. So there's quite a few things we look at. I think in general, we do want to provide more visibility, but we also want to make sure we're doing the right transaction.

And with the volatility in the market, have you seen -- what's the appetite from your clients to go along? I'm sure they want to go along at a lower rate, [but spot] rates have come down. So I was just curious to see if it's easier to do time charters when spot rates are lower than when you have this recent spike in spot rates?

I think it has more to do with the FFA market, and there's -- again, there's been so much volatility in that right now, we haven't seen much done over the last week. But again, as that calms down, which I think we're -- I believe we're seeing the beginnings of that, you'll see more 1-, 2-year deals being done.

To answer your question, yes, I am sure that cargo owners are looking at the same demand and supply fundamentals as we are going into the -- going into next year. And if they can take advantage of an attractive opportunity on their side, an owner that wants to fix in this kind of market, they will. There's no doubt, which I think is really important, there's so much more liquidity in the time charter market, the period market this year as opposed to what we were seeing in 2020. So I look at that as very positive in general, and I think that will continue into next year.

All right. And just one last question maybe for Pete here. Everybody is focused on the iron ore market, but the coal market has been surprisingly strong. I guess the big focus here is China going to step up production domestically or they're going to import. Do you see any signs there that actually imports are increasing over the last few months and then going forward?

Magnus, thank you for your question. Yes, we actually have seen quite an uptick recently in Chinese coal imports. Typically, when you look at the last 3 years, we see quite a drop off this time of year on the coal import side. In China, there's a lot of talk about restrictions normally this time of year importing basis last year's level. This year, it's actually been the opposite. We've seen quite an uplift in coal imports into China. There's been low stockpiles, increased demand for electricity and also just shortages within the domestic market in terms of production. We've had a difficult time getting coal from Mongolia due to COVID restrictions. And then obviously, the Australia to China coal dispute, where there's been more of a diversion of cargoes. So some of it is self-imposed by China. Some of it is market related. But we're certainly seeing an uplift of coal shipments to China over the last few months.

Our next question comes from Liam Burke with B. Riley.

John, on the reserve, when you're looking a quarter forward, presuming that buybacks and vessel acquisitions are in that reserve mix, how much flexibility do you have when you're looking a quarter forward?

So keep in mind, the reserve is really set off of how much debt we want to repay the following quarter. So the real toggle is the debt repayment and then that translates into the reserve. In terms of how those proceeds are used, there's a lot of flexibility. That's cash that will sit on the balance sheet that, as you pointed out, could be used for acquisitions. It could be used for certainly stock buyback somewhere down the road if we felt that was the right move. And it could also be used to smooth out dividends if we have a lower quarter due to volatility. But we still believe in the fundamentals going forward, we can smooth that quarter out with the reserve. So a lot of flexibility. There's nothing written in stone in terms of how those monies can be used by the company.

Great. And I think this is a question for Peter. But we were talking about presuming that China steel production remains flat or slightly up, rest of the world production is up mid-single digits, which is almost half the world steel production, how does that translate into ton miles in terms of rest of the world carrying the production increase?

Yes. No, it's a good question, and that's why -- one of the reasons why we try to highlight that in our prepared remarks is that there's so much focus on China, which deservedly so, it's a huge driver of drybulk trade no doubt. But ex-China on the steel side has been -- there's been a huge recovery this year, up 16% for the first 9 months of this year. When we talk about ton miles, just look at the other larger steel producers, Japan, India, Europe, the U.S., South Korea. So when we talk about Asian producers of steel, the ton miles don't change too much because it's still going Brazil to Japan possibly or Australia to Japan instead of to China. But the overall sense is that let's say there is a little bit of a hiccup on the steel side in China that we've seen, although year-over-year, we're essentially flat in terms of overall production, it's more timing, we're still seeing import flows into the other larger steel producers. So that's one thing to really keep in mind.

Another important part is that Chinese steel production historically peaks in the second quarter of the year during spring construction season. Typically, we do see a drop off in steel production in Q3 and Q4, but not necessarily to this extent. There's other factors at play right now within China. But iron ore exports from Brazil and Australia peak during this time of year, really the sweet spot of September and October, and that really correlates with what we've seen on the Capesize side. So it's just important to understand the difference really between steel production and iron ore imports because the correlation hasn't really been there in recent years.

Our next question comes from Greg Lewis with BTIG.

John, I think you've kind of touched on how you're thinking about a buyback on -- with Liam's -- with some comments to Liam's question. But just kind of curious, clearly, asset prices have gone higher and you're generating good cash flow. I mean this is something that we've thought and talked about. The stocks never really went up with that spike in rates, but it seems like they're pulling back with the recent -- more so with the pullback in rates. As we look to kind of that softness in the market, whether it's the next couple of weeks or maybe a little bit longer, if that continues to weigh on the stock, does a buyback potentially make sense? Or right now, let's get the debt where we can really push the dividend going forward?

Yes. I would say that the number 1 goal right now, Greg, is to get that debt to $246 million and then use cash to take delivery of the 2 Ultramaxes in the beginning part of January, which I might add are very much in the money from a valuation standpoint. I definitely agree with you on the equities. They did not move up when Cape rates moved up into the 80s, and they seem to be in a little bit of a downward motion with rates overall. I think I'm not sure if it's entirely rates or if it's uncertainty around Evergrande or uncertainty around the power issues in China.

But again, we haven't seen asset values come off. If anything, they probably strengthened a little bit over the last week. And I don't see them coming off to any extent because the newbuilding price is pretty firm. And there is a correlation between those 2. So I think there's a floor that's set of the newbuilding price. And as we all know, there's -- even if you wanted to order, you're talking about 2024. So there's demand for newbuildings. You've got the price of steel that's remaining firm. So to me, it's a good opportunity for people right now in terms of the discount to the steel value. But I'm also hopeful as we get into next year, it will become more comfortable or as comfortable as we are with the supply and demand dynamics. Our value strategy, while it will take some -- a few quarters to season hopefully, that will be also very helpful to the valuation and the equity.

Okay. Great. And then just -- I mean, clearly, everybody is picking over the -- how you're thinking about the formula for the dividend. As I think -- or as we think about drydock and realizing it's not a big number, but is that something that is going to be -- is that going to be more on an annual -- how should we think about as we try to forecast that expense? Is that something that we should be thinking about on like a quarterly, annual basis or any guidance there?

Yes. Greg, this is Apostolos. We will be giving guidance on a quarterly basis. For Q4, we're talking about $2.9 million. And then for all of 2022, we're talking about $27 million, but that includes the upgrade on fuel efficiency side that we're doing, which is really an investment. In any case, we will be giving it to you on a quarter-by-quarter basis. So at the same time that we announce the debt paydown and the reserve and the rest of the costs, that's going to be part of it.

Our next question comes from Poe Fratt with NOBLE Capital Markets.

Can you just clarify that last comment, Apostolos. So if you're looking at $27 million with upgrades, will the upgrades also be included in the dividend calculation?

Yes, they will. So that $27 million is all inclusive, again, including $8.6 million of upgrades for 2022.

So $8.6 million is upgrades. And then can you clarify whether the $41 million of cash that you're going to use to complete the acquisitions, is that going to be taken out of the dividend in the first quarter. Will that be part of the dividend calculation in the first quarter?

It doesn't get affected. It's completely separate in the sense that it's not operating cash flow. But as you did say, we will be using it -- we will be using cash from the balance sheet to pay for that.

But again, it's not...

And obviously, that...

Sorry.

Go ahead, Poe.

No. But again, it's not going to be excluded from the operating cash flow when you look at calculating the net cash that's available for the dividend.

No, it will not go into the dividend calculation. So we're paying down the debt to $246 million. And then we'll be using cash off the balance sheet in the very early part of January to take delivery of those 2 ships, but that cash off the balance sheet is not going into the dividend formula. And the dividend formula on Page 8 is -- the only number that really needs to be filled in here on Page 8 of the presentation is the net revenue number. We've given 70% of the fixture. So the question mark is the 30%, which will be market-based.

And then can you just clarify the reserve, John, does include corporate purposes and acquisitions? Can you just talk about how future acquisitions might be handled in the context of the dividend calculation and the reserve?

Acquisitions will not go into the calculation of the dividend. Again, as you're looking on Page 8, these are the buckets, if you will, starting at the top with the operating cash flow and then debt repayments for the quarter, the drydocking, the reserve for the quarter. And again, the reserve is really a factor of the debt repayments, and then that will give you the dividend per share. And I can't stress enough the idea is to give this at least 1 quarter in advance.

Great. And then when you talk about debt repayments of -- the run rate is $35 million a year, that means that in 7 years, you're going to be debt free. Does that meet your intermediate-term goal of being debt free? Or is -- would you think that, that intermediate would be a little bit shorter time frame?

If you use a $35 million targeted run rate, and I'm using that term specifically because we will look at this on a quarter-by-quarter basis. But again, if you use the reserve, you can see getting into 2022, it's $35 million of debt repayment. If you do 2 years at $35 million, I think you're pretty close to net debt 0 with the reserve buildup and the debt amortization. So by the end of 2023, we would actually be at a net debt 0. And then obviously, the longer-term goal is to get to 0 overall.

Okay. And then can you just talk about your time charter strategy on the Capes. I guess in previous conversations, you've always viewed the -- or it seems like you view the Capes as adding upside volatility and upside potential. And I think that you're saying that maybe you're going to lock in time charters to reduce the Cape volatility. Can you just help me understand sort of your strategy on the Cape side?

Yes. Again, it's opportunistic, Poe. I mean the Capes, as you pointed out, are volatile. But if you can put into place a good 2-year fixture or 3-year fixture, for that matter, basis return on capital, we'll take advantage of those opportunities. But it's not just as simple as waking up in the morning and saying, "Oh, well, the market is at $30,000 a day, let's fix." We look at what the FFA curve is indicating and can we create better value over that. We have hurdle rates in terms of what we think the rates should be on a time charter basis. And we also look at the valuation of our fleet and sort of what cash-on-cash returns we're able to put in place. So it's a combination of factors.

I think derisking some of the Capesize suite from time to time makes a lot of sense because of the volatility. And quite frankly, going into the first quarter, we've got 20% of the Capesize fleet fixed at $28,500. So obviously, that's a very good number as we look at the paper market right now. So it's a combination of factors. Overall, we do want to take opportunities as they present themselves to lock away some of the Capesize tonnage. We may do it in the minor bulks, but I would say less on the minor bulk side, more on the Capes because of the inherent volatility.

This concludes the Genco Shipping & Trading Limited conference call. Thank you for your participation, and have a nice day.