Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (GNK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Genco Shipping & Trading Limited's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call and presentation.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Genco Shipping & Trading Limited 的 2023 年第四季度收益電話會議和演示會。

Before we begin, please note that there will be a slide presentation accompanying today's conference call. That presentation can be obtained from Genco's website at www.gencoshipping.com. To inform everyone, today's conference is being recorded and is now being webcast at the company's website at www.gencoshipping.com. (Operator Instructions) A replay of the conference will be accessible at any time during the next two weeks by dialing in 1-877-674-7070 and entering the passcode 373966.

在開始之前，請注意，今天的電話會議將附有幻燈片演示。此簡報可從 Genco 網站 www.gencoshipping.com 取得。特此通知大家，今天的會議正在錄製中，並正在公司網站 www.gencoshipping.com 上進行網路直播。 （操作員說明）在接下來的兩週內，您可以隨時撥打 1-877-674-7070 並輸入密碼 373966 觀看會議重播。

At this time, I will now turn the conference over to the company. Please go ahead.

這時候，我現在就把會議轉交給公司。請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Before we begin our presentation, I note that in this conference call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements use words such as anticipate, budget, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe, and other words in terms of similar meaning in connection with the discussion of potential future events, circumstances or future operating or financial performance. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and observations.

在我們開始演講之前，我注意到，在本次電話會議中，我們將根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出某些前瞻性聲明。此類前瞻性陳述在討論潛在的未來事件、情況或未來營運或財務業績時使用了預期、預算、估計、期望、項目、打算、計劃、相信等類似含義的詞語。 。這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和觀察。

For a discussion of factors that could cause results to differ, please see the company's press release that was issued yesterday, materials relating to this call posted on the company's website, and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and the company's reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K subsequently filed with the SEC.

有關可能導致結果不同的因素的討論，請參閱該公司昨天發布的新聞稿、該公司網站上發布的與本次電話會議相關的材料以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括但不限於：本公司截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格年度報告，以及隨後向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格和 8-K 表格報告。

At this time, I would like to introduce John Wobensmith, Chief Executive Officer of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited.

這次我想介紹Genco Shipping & Trading Limited 的執行長John Wobensmith。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Genco's fourth-quarter 2023 conference call. In addition to reviewing our Q4 2023 and year-to-date highlights, we want to use this opportunity to provide an update on the progress we are making three years into our comprehensive value strategy, as well as on the industry's current fundamentals. We will then open up the call for questions. For additional information, please also refer to our earnings presentation posted on our website.

大家，早安。歡迎參加 Genco 2023 年第四季電話會議。除了回顧 2023 年第四季和年初至今的亮點之外，我們還希望利用這個機會提供有關我們三年來全面價值策略所取得的進展以及行業當前基本面的最新資訊。然後我們將開放提問。欲了解更多信息，另請參閱我們網站上發布的收益報告。

Starting on page 5, 2023 marked another strong year for Genco. We took concrete steps to drive sustainable long-term value, while achieving the top corporate governance rating across 64 public shipping companies for the third consecutive year. We also made progress enhancing the company's ability to thrive through all industry cycles as we executed across the three pillars of our comprehensive value strategy focused on dividends, deleveraging, and growth.

從第 5 頁開始，2023 年標誌著 Genco 又一個強勁的一年。我們採取具體措施推動永續的長期價值，同時連續第三年在 64 家上市航運公司中獲得最高的公司治理評級。透過執行以股息、去槓桿化和成長為重點的綜合價值策略的三大支柱，我們也取得了進展，增強了公司在所有產業週期中蓬勃發展的能力。

We ended 2023 with our strongest quarter of the year as outlined on slide 6. For the fourth quarter, we achieved adjusted net income of $0.43 per share and declared a $0.41 per share dividend representing a 173% quarter over quarter increase to the dividend.

如幻燈片 6 所示，我們以全年最強勁的季度結束了 2023 年。第四季度，我們實現了每股 0.43 美元的調整後淨利潤，並宣布每股股息 0.41 美元，相當於股息環比增長 173%。

Complementing the sizable returns, we provided shareholders during the quarter. We also continued to de-lever, while executing several key strategic growth initiatives. This included increasing our earnings capacity by implementing the next phase of our fleet renewal program. Additionally, we closed out a $500 million revolving credit facility that meaningfully increased our borrowing capacity, reduced margin, extended maturities, and enhanced our ability to take advantage of opportunistic growth.

除了可觀的回報之外，我們還在本季為股東提供了回報。我們也繼續去槓桿化，同時執行幾項關鍵的策略成長措施。這包括透過實施下一階段的機隊更新計劃來提高我們的獲利能力。此外，我們還完成了 5 億美元的循環信貸安排，這顯著提高了我們的借貸能力，降低了保證金，延長了期限，並增強了我們利用機會性增長的能力。

Turning to the fleet, performance was strong in the fourth quarter and underscores the meaningful operating leverage of Genco's asset base and the importance of our barbell approach to fleet composition. During the quarter, our operating leverage was evident as capesize rates spiked to multiyear highs in December, enabling us to increase Q4 TCE by 44% and achieve our highest TCE of the year at over $17,000 per day.

就機隊而言，第四季度的表現強勁，突顯了 Genco 資產基礎的有意義的營運槓桿以及我們對機隊構成採用槓鈴方法的重要性。在本季度，隨著海岬型船運價在12 月飆升至多年來的高點，我們的營運槓桿作用顯而易見，使我們能夠將第四季度的TCE 提高44%，並實現全年最高的TCE，超過每天17,000 美元。

We also generated our lowest cash flow break-even rate for the year, resulting in significant margin expansion and an increased Q4 dividend, which I mentioned a moment ago.

我們也創造了今年最低的現金流損益平衡率，導致利潤率大幅擴張，第四季股利增加，正如我剛才提到的。

Notably, in the fourth quarter, we once again achieved the time charter equivalent benchmark outperformance and are pleased to have seeded our internal benchmarks for the year at $1,300 per day, while generating adjusted EBITDA of over $100 million.

值得注意的是，在第四季度，我們再次實現了期租同等基準的優異表現，並很高興將今年的內部基準定為每天 1,300 美元，同時產生超過 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Looking ahead, we expect the positive momentum and our strong performance to continue in the first quarter. For Q1, 81% of our available days are fixed at over $18,700 per day, an increase of 34% versus Q4 levels. This strong performance is notable, especially considering that Q1 has historically been the seasonal low point in the dry bulk freight market.

展望未來，我們預計第一季將繼續保持積極的勢頭和強勁的業績。第一季度，我們 81% 的可用天數固定在每天 18,700 美元以上，與第四季度的水準相比增加了 34%。這一強勁表現引人注目，特別是考慮到第一季一直是乾散貨貨運市場的季節性低點。

On page 7, we look back on the development of our comprehensive value strategy based on our ongoing progress in 2023. In April 2021, management and the Board laid out a clear path and related objectives to transport Genco into a low leverage, high dividend yielding company with significant financial flexibility to provide shareholders with returns and opportunistically grow through the dry bulk shipping cycles.

在第 7 頁，我們基於 2023 年的持續進展回顧了我們全面價值策略的發展。2021 年4 月，管理階層和董事會制定了明確的道路和相關目標，將Genco 打造成一家低槓桿、高股息收益率的公司，具有顯著的財務靈活性，為股東提供回報，並在幹散貨運輸週期中實現機會性成長。

Since that time, we have made significant progress towards these goals and importantly have balanced our capital allocation priorities. having paid $170 million in dividends, acquired $236 million of vessels, and paid out $249 million in debt.

從那時起，我們在實現這些目標方面取得了重大進展，重要的是平衡了我們的資本配置優先事項。支付了 1.7 億美元的股息，購買了 2.36 億美元的船隻，並償還了 2.49 億美元的債務。

Moving to slide 8, we have declared compelling dividends over the last 4.5 years including [nine] since the announcement of our value strategy. Over these 18 quarter-period cumulative dividends to shareholders amounted to $5.155 or 29% of the current share price. Further supporting our ability to pay sustainable dividends is our recent success executing the next steps of our fleet renewable strategy as displayed on slide 9.

轉到幻燈片 8，我們在過去 4.5 年中宣布了引人注目的股息，其中包括自宣布我們的價值策略以來的 [9] 年股息。在這 18 個季度中，向股東累積派發的股利達 5.155 美元，佔目前股價的 29%。我們最近成功執行了我們船隊再生能源策略的後續步驟，這進一步支持了我們支付可持續股息的能力，如幻燈片 9 所示。

In November 2023, we purchased two 2016-built scrubber-fitted capesize vessels for $86 million, while divesting three 2009 and 2010 capesize vessels. This trade further modernized our capesize fleet and reduced the risk profile, while also increasing 2024 earnings in cash flow capacity. Following the sales of the three older capes, we expect 2024 dry dock savings of approximately $10 million as we avoided the expensive third special surveys for these ships.

2023 年 11 月，我們以 8,600 萬美元購買了兩艘 2016 年建造的配備洗滌器的好望角型船舶，同時剝離了三艘 2009 年和 2010 年建造的好望角型船舶。這項交易進一步實現了我們的海岬型船隊現代化並降低了風險狀況，同時也增加了 2024 年現金流能力收益。在出售三艘較舊的 Cape 後，我們預計 2024 年乾船塢將節省約 1000 萬美元，因為我們避免了對這些船舶進行昂貴的第三次特別調查。

In line with our barbell approach to fleet composition noted on slide 10, we'll continue to evaluate further opportunities in the sale and purchase market to renew our fleet.

根據幻燈片 10 中提到的我們對機隊構成的槓鈴方法，我們將繼續評估銷售和購買市場上的進一步機會來更新我們的機隊。

Turning to slide 11, we believe Genco is in a highly advantageous position going forward. Specifically, based on our success lowering our debt outstanding by 55% over the last three years, we have an industry-low net loan to value, an industry-low cash flow breakeven rate, and nearly $300 million in undrawn revolver availability. This provides significant financial flexibility and optionality for the company going forward in a cyclical and capital-intensive business.

轉向幻燈片 11，我們相信 Genco 未來處於非常有利的位置。具體來說，基於過去三年我們成功地將未償債務降低了55%，我們的淨貸款價值比處於行業最低水平，現金流盈虧平衡率處於行業最低水平，並且未提取的左輪手槍可用性接近3 億美元。這為公司在週期性和資本密集型業務中的發展提供了顯著的財務靈活性和選擇性。

As such, we believe that Genco is well positioned to operate in both up and down markets as shown on slide 12. With approximately [$1 billion] fleet value and taking into consideration our scale and operating leverage, we expect Genco's fleet to significantly benefit from a rising market.

因此，我們認為 Genco 處於有利地位，可以在上漲和下跌市場中運營，如幻燈片 12 所示。考慮到我們的規模和營運槓桿，Genco 的機隊價值約為 [10 億美元]，我們預計 Genco 的機隊將從不斷增長的市場中顯著受益。

With that said, and given our access to capital, we are also able to take advantage of counter cyclical opportunities to buy vessels to increase our earnings power, much like we did prior to the recent capesize rally in early Q4.

話雖如此，鑑於我們獲得資本的機會，我們還能夠利用反週期機會購買船舶來提高我們的盈利能力，就像我們在第四季度初海岬型船反彈之前所做的那樣。

Going forward, a key priority for Genco is continuing to be good stewards of capital for shareholders and continuously evaluating capital allocation priorities.

展望未來，Genco 的首要任務是繼續為股東做好資本管家，並持續評估資本配置優先事項。

On slide 13, we summarize the key tenants of our approach to capital allocation. First, maintain low financial leverage to lower casual breakeven levels based on the significant operating leverage inherent in the business. The second, pay compelling quarterly dividend consistently to shareholders. The third, opportunistically grow the asset base going forward to employ a barbell approach to fleet composition by maintaining a fleet of capesize vessels for upside potential, while owning Ultramax and Supermax vessels with a more stable earnings stream.

在投影片 13 中，我們總結了我們資本配置方法的關鍵要素。首先，基於業務固有的巨大營運槓桿，維持較低的財務槓桿，以降低臨時損益平衡水準。第二，持續向股東支付引人注目的季度股利。第三，透過維持海岬型船船隊以獲得上升潛力，同時擁有具有更穩定收入來源的Ultramax和Supermax船舶，機會主義地擴大未來的資產基礎，並採用槓鈴法來調整船隊組成。

We believe our low leverage, high dividend payout model executed in scale is industry leading in the dry bulk shipping public markets. Given the volatility and the cyclicality of dry bulk shipping, we also believe it creates the optimal risk-reward balance to provide sizable returns to shareholders, opportunistically grow the fleet, and enhance our earnings power through the cycles.

我們相信，我們規模化執行的低槓桿、高股息支付模式在乾散貨航運公開市場上處於行業領先地位。考慮到乾散貨運輸的波動性和週期性，我們也相信它創造了最佳的風險回報平衡，為股東提供可觀的回報，機會主義地發展船隊，並增強我們在周期中的盈利能力。

I will now turn the call over to Peter Allen, our Chief Financial Officer.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的財務長彼得艾倫。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

On slides 15 through 17, we highlight key financial metrics of the company, specifically for Q4 2023 Genco recorded net income of $4.9 million or $0.12 and $0.11 basic and diluted earnings per share respectively, which includes a non-cash special impairment charge of $13.6 million relating to the agreed upon sale of three older, less fuel efficient capsize vessels. Excluding this non-cash charge, adjusted net income was $18.6 million or $0.43 basic and diluted earnings per share. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 totaled $37.1 million, bringing the full-year 2023 total to $101.5 million.

在投影片15 至17 中，我們重點介紹了公司的關鍵財務指標，特別是2023 年第四季Genco 錄得的淨利潤為490 萬美元，基本每股收益和稀釋每股收益分別為0.12 美元和0.11 美元，其中包括1,360 萬美元的非現金特殊減損費用涉及商定出售三艘較舊、燃油效率較低的傾覆船。排除此非現金費用，調整後淨利潤為 1860 萬美元，即基本每股收益和稀釋每股收益 0.43 美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 總額為 3,710 萬美元，使 2023 年全年總額達到 1.015 億美元。

During Q4, our net revenues increased by 50%, as compared to Q3, while a recurring cost structure remained approximately flat over the period, illustrating the high degree of operating leverage inherent in the business. This operating leverage is best displayed by our capesize vessels, specifically those on index length contracts.

第四季度，我們的淨收入與第三季相比成長了 50%，而在此期間經常性成本結構基本上持平，這說明了該業務固有的高度營運槓桿。我們的海岬型船舶，特別是指數長度合約的船舶，最能反映這種經營槓桿。

These ships achieve an average TCE of over $33,000 per day in Q4, 91% higher than in Q3, directly benefiting from the rapid rise in the capesize market at year-end. With such operating leverage, there is less of a need for financial leverage to achieve strong returns.

這些船在第四季度的平均 TCE 超過 33,000 美元/天，比第三季增長 91%，直接受益於年底海岬型船市場的快速上漲。有了這樣的經營槓桿，就不需要財務槓桿來實現豐厚的回報。

On slide 18, we highlight the trajectory of our debt outstanding over the last three years and our continued voluntary debt repayments. Through the end of 2023, we have paid down nearly $250 million of debt meaningfully reducing our leverage. Given our 100% revolving credit facility, we will continue to actively manage our debt balance to save on interest expense, while opportunistically drawing down for vessel purchases given our nearly $300 million of undrawn capacity.

在投影片 18 中，我們重點介紹了過去三年的未償債務軌跡以及我們持續自願償還債務的情況。到 2023 年底，我們已償還近 2.5 億美元的債務，顯著降低了我們的槓桿率。鑑於我們的 100% 循環信貸額度，我們將繼續積極管理我們的債務餘額，以節省利息支出，同時鑑於我們的未動用能力近 3 億美元，我們將適時提取船舶採購費用。

During the fourth quarter, we close on a $500 million revolving credit facility, which is a key step in the continued development of our capital allocation approach. This facility increased our borrowing capacity by over $150 million, lowered pricing on margin by 30 to 60 basis points from the previous facility and extended maturity to the end of 2028.

第四季度，我們完成了 5 億美元的循環信貸安排，這是我們持續發展資本配置方法的關鍵一步。這項融資使我們的借貸能力增加了超過 1.5 億美元，將保證金定價比先前的融資降低了 30 至 60 個基點，並將期限延長至 2028 年底。

This 100% revolving credit facility structure provides further flexibility and aligns well with our value strategy as the RCF structures enables Genco to continue to voluntary pay down debt in line with our medium-term goal of zero net debt without losing the capacity to draw down to fund growth.

這種 100% 循環信貸融資結構提供了進一步的靈活性，並且與我們的價值策略高度契合，因為 RCF 結構使 Genco 能夠根據我們零淨債務的中期目標繼續自願償還債務，同時又不喪失提款能力基金增長。

To this point, we took advantage of the company's meaningful liquidity position to opportunistically acquire two modern high specification capesize vessels. We'll continue to assess additional sale and purchase transactions in the market in line with our fleet renewal strategy.

到目前為止，我們利用該公司有意義的流動性狀況，機會主義地收購了兩艘現代高規格海岬型船舶。我們將根據我們的機隊更新策略繼續評估市場上的額外銷售和購買交易。

As of December 31, 2023, our cash position was about $47 million and our debt outstanding was $200 million, bringing our net debt level to $153 million and net loan-to-value ratio to 15%. With $295 million of undrawn revolver availability, our total liquidity position at the end of the year was $342 million. Following the completion of the agreed upon vessel sales in the first quarter, we anticipate our net loan to value ratio to reduce to 10%.

截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們的現金部位約為 4,700 萬美元，未償債務為 2 億美元，使我們的淨負債水準達到 1.53 億美元，淨貸款價值比率達到 15%。憑藉 2.95 億美元的未提取左輪手槍可用量，我們年底的總流動性部位為 3.42 億美元。在第一季完成商定的船舶銷售後，我們預計淨貸款與價值比率將降至 10%。

Moving to slide 19, we highlight our transparent dividend policy, which targets a distribution based on 100% of excess quarterly cash flow excluding maintenance and withholding for future investment. The nature of our variable quarterly rate of approximately 4.7%.

轉到投影片 19，我們強調了我們透明的股利政策，其目標是根據 100% 的超額季度現金流進行分配，不包括維持和預扣未來投資。我們的可變季利率約為 4.7%。

Looking ahead to Q1 2024 on slide 20, we anticipate our cash flow breakeven rate excluding extraordinary annual meeting related expenses to be $9,752 per vessel per day, well below our Q1 TCE estimates to-date of $18,724 per day for 81% fixed, pointing to another strong quarter.

展望幻燈片20 上的2024 年第一季度，我們預計不包括特別年會相關費用的現金流盈虧平衡率為每艘船每天9,752 美元，遠低於我們迄今為止對81% 固定的第一季度TCE估計每天18,724 美元，指出另一個強勁的季度。

I will now turn the call over to Michael Orr, our Dry Bulk Market Analyst, to discuss industry fundamentals.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的乾散貨市場分析師邁克爾·奧爾（Michael Orr），討論行業基本面。

Thank you, Peter. As depicted on Slide 22. After an atypically soft third quarter, the dry bulk market increased meaningfully in the fourth quarter with capesize vessels, reaching multiyear highs or $50,000 per day in December. These strong rates continued into the historically softer period, leading up to Lunar New Year in February.

謝謝你，彼得。如投影片 22 所示。在經歷了異常疲軟的第三季度之後，乾散貨市場在第四季度因海岬型船舶大幅增長，在 12 月達到多年高點或每天 50,000 美元。這些強勁的利率持續到歷史上的疲軟時期，直到二月的農曆新年。

Capesize rates reached a 15-year high for this time of year, driven by continued tightness in the Atlantic basin. Currently, capesize and Supermax rates remain at firm levels of approximately $23,000 and $13,000 per day, respectively.

在大西洋盆地持續緊張的推動下，海岬型船運價達到了每年這個時候 15 年來的最高水準。目前，海岬型船和超靈便型船的運價分別維持在每天約 23,000 美元和 13,000 美元的穩定水平。

Slides 23 and 24 highlight the aforementioned seasonality of the dry bulk freight market, which has historically seen a reduction of cargo availability, particularly from Brazil, due to poor weather conditions and scheduled maintenance coupled with the timing of new building deliveries and the later New Year. However, various geopolitical events continue to impact the dry bulk freight market as highlighted on slides 25 and 26.

幻燈片23 和24 強調了上述乾散貨貨運市場的季節性，歷史上，由於惡劣的天氣條件和定期維護以及新建築交付時間和較晚的新年，貨物供應量減少，特別是來自巴西的貨物供應量減少。然而，正如幻燈片 25 和 26 所強調的，各種地緣政治事件繼續影響乾散貨貨運市場。

In October, low water levels in the Panama Canal impacted the number of ships that could transit resulting in heavy delays and rerouting of vessels. One of these options was to divert vessels through the Suez Canal.

十月份，巴拿馬運河的低水位影響了可過境的船舶數量，導致船舶嚴重延誤和改道。其中一個選擇是讓船隻改道通過蘇伊士運河。

However, in December, attacks on commercial vessels in the region led many shipping companies to no longer transit the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden area, further disrupting the efficiency of the global dry bulk fleet. Approximately 7% of dry bulk trade transits through the Suez Canal. Larger scale tonnage routing over an extended period of time could increase ton-mile demand for dry bulk shipping, all else equal.

然而，去年12月，該地區商船遭受襲擊，導致許多航運公司不再過境南紅海和亞丁灣地區，進一步擾亂了全球乾散貨船隊的效率。大約7%的乾散貨貿易是經由蘇伊士運河過境。在其他條件相同的情況下，長時間內更大規模的噸位運輸可能會增加乾散貨運輸的噸英里需求。

Regarding the Chinese steel complex on slides 27 and 28, China's iron ore port inventories have been building over the last several months from very low levels, but still remain well off of 2022 highs. China's iron ore imports rose by 7% in 2023 year over year, supporting iron ore prices, which remain firm at approximately $120 per ton. China's steel production was flat year over year in 2023. However, India grew substantially at 12%, while ex-China output increased on a year over year basis for the last six months.

關於幻燈片 27 和 28 上的中國鋼鐵聯合體，過去幾個月中國的鐵礦石港口庫存一直在從非常低的水平開始增加，但仍遠低於 2022 年的高點。2023年中國鐵礦石進口量年增7%，支撐鐵礦石價格堅挺每噸120美元左右。2023年中國鋼鐵產量較去年同期持平。然而，印度的產量大幅增加 12%，而過去 6 個月，中國以外的產量則是年增。

Looking ahead to 2024, the World Steel Association forecasts China's production to remain at 2023 levels, while the rest of the world is expected to see growth of 4%, potentially signaling an increase in demand from developed countries and support from the secondary trade routes outside of Asia.

展望2024年，世界鋼鐵協會預測中國產量將保持在2023年的水平，而世界其他地區預計將增長4%，這可能預示著發達國家需求的增加以及國外二級貿易路線的支持亞洲的。

In terms of the grain trade, the end of Q1 represents the start of the South American grain season, which typically sees an increase in Brazilian soybean exports, which is supportive to minor bulk rates. As shown on slide 29, the USDA is forecasting another strong crop out of Brazil.

就糧食貿易而言，第一季末代表南美糧食季節的開始，巴西大豆出口通常會增加，這對小批量價格構成支撐。如投影片 29 所示，美國農業部預測巴西將迎來另一次豐收。

Regarding the supply side outlined on slides 30 to 32, net fleet growth in 2023 was 3%. The historically low order book as a percentage of the fleet, as well as near-term and longer-term environmental regulations are expected to keep net fleet growth low in the coming years. While we expect volatility in the freight market, the foundation of a low supply growth picture provides a solid basis for our constructive view of the dry bulk market going forward.

關於投影片 30 至 32 中概述的供應方面，2023 年機隊淨增長率為 3%。訂單量佔船隊比例處於歷史低位，以及近期和長期環境法規預計將使未來幾年船隊淨增長保持在較低水平。雖然我們預期貨運市場會出現波動，但供應成長低迷的基礎為我們對乾散貨市場未來的建設性看法提供了堅實的基礎。

I will now turn the call back over to John for closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給約翰，讓他發表結束語。

Thank you, Michael. Before we turn to Q&A, there are a few key points that I'd like to highlight.

謝謝你，麥可。在我們進行問答之前，我想強調幾個關鍵點。

First, we are executing a clear plan and doing so with a commitment to strong corporate governance. We've made demonstrable progress executing across the three pillars of our comprehensive value strategy.

首先，我們正在執行明確的計劃，並致力於加強公司治理。我們在執行全面價值策略的三大支柱方面取得了明顯進展。

Second, our strong operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year demonstrate the strength of our industry-leading commercial platform and our significant operating leverage. We are pleased to outperform benchmarks and increase the TCE by 44% from third quarter levels.

其次，我們第四季和全年強勁的營運和財務表現證明了我們行業領先的商業平台的實力和顯著的營運槓桿。我們很高興能夠跑贏基準，TCE 較第三季水準提高 44%。

Finally, we believe the key steps we are taking are positioning us to create value both today and for the long-term.

最後，我們相信我們正在採取的關鍵步驟使我們能夠創造當前和長期的價值。

This concludes our presentation, and we would now be happy to take your questions.

我們的演講到此結束，現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Omar Nokta，Jefferies。

Thank you. Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for the update and thanks for outlining obviously the strategy as you've been ongoing now for three plus years or so. I wanted to ask just about the dry bulk market overall. Clearly things have been, as you were touching on just now in the presentation, things have been much healthier than expected. Definitely going into 4Q, though we're not, expectations for rates to jump as they did. And so far here in the first quarter, things have been much healthier as well.

謝謝。嘿夥計們，早安。感謝您的更新，並感謝您清楚地概述了該策略，因為您已經持續了三年多的時間。我想詢問整個乾散貨市場的情況。顯然，正如您剛才在演講中談到的那樣，事情比預期的要健康得多。肯定會進入第四季度，儘管我們沒有，但預計利率會像他們那樣跳升。第一季到目前為止，情況也變得更加健康。

I just wanted to dive just a bit deeper, just kind of maybe from your perspective. If you could just give us a sense of what do you think is really behind this market? Is it demand? Is demand really the driver here? You obviously talked about the Red Sea, the Panama Canal. Is that also having an issue on the margin? Or how would you characterize this market, say, today versus last year at this time when things were looking fairly soft?

我只是想更深入地探討一下，也許只是從你的角度來看。您能否讓我們了解一下您認為這個市場背後的真正原因是什麼？是需求嗎？需求真的是這裡的驅動力嗎？你顯然談到了紅海、巴拿馬運河。這是否也存在邊緣問題？或者說，與去年情況看起來相當疲軟的情況相比，您如何描述今天的市場？

So obviously, great question, Omar. I think you have to start with the supply side, which is, again, continues to be very low in terms of percentage of the fleet on order. We're going to have even lower deliveries this year versus last. And then as we get into 2025, deliveries slow down even further. And again, they're from very low levels to begin with. So we have a very good supply-demand balance.

顯然，這是個好問題，奧馬爾。我認為你必須從供應方面開始，就訂單機隊的百分比而言，供應方面仍然非常低。今年我們的交付量將比去年更低。然後，當我們進入 2025 年時，交付速度會進一步放緩。再說一次，他們的水平一開始就很低。所以我們有一個非常好的供需平衡。

This first quarter though, and we really started to see it towards the middle of the fourth quarter, we've seen actual increased volumes on iron ore, bauxite, coal, I think certainly the El Niño effect that has created dry weather in the iron ore areas in Brazil have enabled [valley] to increase production from what would normally be a seasonal low because it would typically be the rainy season when in fact it's been pretty dry.

不過，今年第一季度，我們確實在第四季度中期開始看到這一情況，我們看到鐵礦石、鋁土礦、煤炭的數量實際增加，我認為肯定是厄爾尼諾效應造成了乾旱天氣。巴西的鐵礦區使[山谷]的產量從通常的季節性低點開始增加，因為通常是雨季，而實際上非常乾燥。

So we've seen increased iron ore. We've seen increased bauxite out of West Africa. Coal shipments have been strong. We are about to come into peak grain season for the Southern hemisphere. Things look very good there in both Brazil and Argentina. Argentinian corn had a pretty bad year last year, this year looks like it's going to be close to a record on the corn side. So that all looks positive.

所以我們看到鐵礦石增加。我們已經看到西非的鋁土礦增加。煤炭運輸一直強勁。南半球即將進入糧食旺季。巴西和阿根廷的情況看起來都非常好。阿根廷玉米去年的表現相當糟糕，今年看起來將接近玉米的歷史最高紀錄。所以一切看起來都是正面的。

But then you talk about some of the inefficiencies. I think the Panama Canal is probably causing greater inefficiencies than the Red Sea, though certainly the vessels avoiding the Red Sea are part of the story as well. But when I look at it, fundamentally I believe the market is being driven by low supply, demand has been up, volumes have been up, and then we do have some inefficiencies that have been created around the Panama Canal and the Red Sea area -- Southern Red Sea area.

但隨後你談到了一些低效率的問題。我認為巴拿馬運河可能比紅海造成更大的效率低下，儘管避開紅海的船隻當然也是原因之一。但當我審視它時，我認為從根本上說，市場是由供應不足推動的，需求上升，成交量上升，然後我們確實在巴拿馬運河和紅海地區造成了一些效率低下的情況 - - 紅海南部地區。

Thanks, John. That's helpful context kind of broadly on the market. And then then just maybe as a follow up, I wanted to ask you on your fleet renewal strategy. You sold the three older capes to acquire the two newer ones. Obviously, we've seen asset values fairly firm, it looks like, and they continue to push higher.

謝謝，約翰。這是市場上廣泛的有用的背景。然後，也許作為後續行動，我想問一下你們的機隊更新策略。您賣掉了三件舊斗篷，購買了兩件新斗篷。顯然，我們已經看到資產價值相當堅挺，而且它們還在繼續推高。

Just wanted to ask if you can maybe touch a bit on what we're seeing or what you're seeing in the sale and purchase market and also is that influencing in any way how you're looking at fleet renewal today versus, say, two months ago?

只是想問您是否可以談談我們所看到的或您在銷售和購買市場上看到的情況，這是否會以任何方式影響您今天對機隊更新的看法，例如，兩個月前？

I would tell you there is a flurry of activity, particularly in the capesize sector, but the smaller mid-sized vessels are moving off the shelf, so to speak, as well.

我想告訴你的是，有一系列的活動，特別是在海岬型船領域，但可以說，較小的中型船也正在下架。

But what's happening in capes is I would call it a little bit of a frenzy to be quite honest with you, in the S&P market. The two ships that we bought, those 2016s which we paid $43 million, they're probably easily worth $50 million today, and that's a very short period of time. That's up [16%, 70%] in a month and a half. And it's very difficult to find eco vessels as well. And we've also seen a lot of Newcastlemaxes being sold.

但老實說，在標準普爾市場中，我認為海角市場正在發生的事情有點瘋狂。我們購買的兩艘船，也就是我們花費 4300 萬美元購買的 2016 年船，它們今天可能很容易價值 5000 萬美元，而且這是一個非常短的時間。一個半月內成長了 [16%, 70%]。找到生態船也非常困難。我們也看到很多紐卡斯爾型船被出售。

I think it's on the shipbuilding side, we all appreciate it. I'm not so sure if it's filtered on down to the rest of the world yet in terms of what values are being paid on ships, but it's definitely moved up significantly over the last 30 to 60 days.

我認為這是造船方面的，我們都很欣賞。我不太確定它是否會滲透到世界其他地方，但就船舶支付的價值而言，但在過去 30 到 60 天內，它肯定顯著上升。

I would also tell you just in general the sentiment in the -- in particular the capesize markets moved up, those -- again going back to the two ships that, that we just bought you know we were able to fix those vessels on index-linked deals at 128% of the BCI. So very firm percentage numbers over and above the benchmark index and then plus scrubber economics obviously on top of that. There's a lot of positivity right now.

我還要告訴你，一般來說，特別是海岬型船市場的情緒上漲，那些——再次回到我們剛剛購買的兩艘船，你知道我們能夠在指數上修復這些船——關聯交易佔BCI的128%。因此，高於基準指數的百分比數字非常穩定，再加上洗滌器經濟性顯然是最重要的。現在有很多積極性。

On the fleet renewal side, as long as we can trade out of older ships for similar relative values as newer ships will continue to do that. So I would tell you, again, particularly in the capesize sector, it's very difficult to find highly eco-high fuel fission vessels, which is what we're focused on.

在船隊更新方面，只要我們能夠以與新船類似的相對價值換取舊船，我們就會繼續這樣做。所以我想再告訴你們，特別是在海岬型船領域，很難找到高度生態、高燃料的裂變船舶，而這正是我們關注的重點。

Liam Burke, B. Riley.

利亞姆·伯克，B.萊利。

John, the index only charters for the five capes have worked out pretty well for you. They run about a year. How are you looking? Do you see opportunities to add more capes to those fixtures or do you just prefer to keep the rest of the cape fleet in the spot market?

約翰，五海角的僅指數包機對您來說效果很好。他們運行了大約一年。你看起來怎麼樣？您是否看到了在這些固定裝置中添加更多海角的機會，或者您只是更願意將其餘海角船隊保留在現貨市場上？

Yes, so look, the index deals are effectively in the spot market, right? Because they're earning a daily rate basis to BCI. We do have three vessels, the Endeavor, the Resolute, and the Defender rolling off somewhere around April, maybe a little bit later from their index deal.

是的，所以看，指數交易實際上是在現貨市場上進行的，對嗎？因為他們以 BCI 的每日費率賺取收入。我們確實有三艘船，奮進號、堅決號和捍衛者號在四月左右下水，也許比他們的指數交易晚一點。

So I think we'll look to do probably renew a couple of those. In general, we like being direct with our customers, but we also believe in a portfolio approach, particularly in the capesize sector. And when you can earn 128% of the BCI plus scrubber that is -- those are very firm numbers. So yeah, I think we'll do a little renewal. I don't see us expanding much beyond what we've done today.

所以我認為我們可能會考慮更新其中的一些。總的來說，我們喜歡直接與客戶溝通，但我們也相信投資組合方法，特別是在海岬型船領域。當你可以賺取 128% 的 BCI 加洗滌器時——這些都是非常確定的數字。所以是的，我想我們會做一些更新。我認為我們的擴張不會超出今天的範圍。

Okay. Now, this is more of a macro question, but in the presentation, you discussed the replenishment of inventories on the iron ore side in China. With production being flat, the rest of the world picking up the slack in terms of iron ore demand. Are you seeing that this early in the year or are you just seeing your iron ore trade replenishing Chinese inventories?

好的。現在，這更多是一個宏觀問題，但在演講中，您討論了中國鐵礦石的庫存補充。由於產量持平，世界其他地區彌補了鐵礦石需求的疲軟。您是在今年年初就看到了這一點，還是只是看到您的鐵礦石貿易補充了中國庫存？

I would say for the most part it's replenishing Chinese inventories. But we do expect that as we have a recovery, ex-China on the steel side, we'll see more iron ore flow. You're correct that production levels are projected to be flat this year. You'll start to see production growth again next year. So I think that's positive, but don't lose sight of the fact, particularly for the Capes, the odd, the growth that's coming this year in the bauxite trade and most likely a continued strong coal market.

我想說，這很大程度上是在補充中國的庫存。但我們確實預計，隨著鋼鐵業的復甦（中國除外），我們將看到更多的鐵礦石流量。您說得對，今年的生產水準預計將持平。明年您將開始再次看到產量成長。因此，我認為這是積極的，但不要忽視這一事實，特別是對於好望角來說，今年鋁土礦貿易的奇怪增長以及很可能持續強勁的煤炭市場。

Ben Nolan, Stifel

班諾蘭、史提菲爾

Circling back to asset values and whatnot. And John, you're talking about a frenzy market. It seems like usually when you have a market to frenzy, it's better to be a seller than a buyer, although you did say the appetite is especially true for the more modern eco-ships, which are harder to find. Do you think -- I mean, is this the kind of environment where you can look at some of your maybe older assets and maybe not even match them up yet with a new asset to pair against, but you know take advantage of just strong appetite or is the appetite maybe not quite as strong for some of the 15-year-old type assets?

回到資產價值之類的話題。約翰，你談論的是一個瘋狂的市場。看起來通常當你有一個瘋狂的市場時，做賣家比做買家更好，儘管你確實說過，人們對更現代的生態船尤其感興趣，因為它們更難找到。你是否認為——我的意思是，在這種環境中，你可以查看一些可能較舊的資產，甚至可能還沒有將它們與新資產進行配對，但你知道利用強烈的胃口還是對某些15年歷史的資產的興趣可能不那麼強烈？

No, I feel like I think the appetite is strong across the board. I just think it's a lot more challenging to find the newer ships. And yeah, that would be something that we would look at, though I would tell you we don't have an interest per se in shrinking the fleet from these numbers. We're very constructive on not just asset values, but the overall markets because of the low supply situation. For the next few years in terms of what we can see, we like being in dry bulk shipping.

不，我覺得大家的胃口都很強烈。我只是認為找到更新的船隻更具挑戰性。是的，這將是我們會考慮的事情，儘管我會告訴你，我們本身並沒有興趣從這些數字中縮減機隊規模。由於供應量較低，我們不僅對資產價值而且對整個市場都非常有建設性。就我們所看到的未來​​幾年而言，我們喜歡乾散貨運輸。

So in terms of shrinking the fleet as a rule, I don't see us doing that. But of course, we're going to take advantage of opportunities even if it may mean short-term selling some older ships and then medium, longer term replacing them.

因此，就縮減機隊規模而言，我認為我們通常不會這樣做。但當然，我們將利用機會，即使這可能意味著短期出售一些舊船，然後中長期更換它們。

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And then from a macro perspective, I'm curious, especially given all of the grain coming out of Brazil, which tends to be a very long-haul grain voyage. Anyway, with the issues in Panama Canal, with issues in the Red Sea, are we starting to see any shift in sort of the appetite of ship type? Is there a growing preference maybe to move some of that grain on, I don't know on a Kamsarmax as opposed to Supermax? Or are you seeing anything on along that front just to take advantage of the scale for the longer distances?

知道了。好的，這很有幫助。然後從宏觀角度來看，我很好奇，特別是考慮到所有穀物都來自巴西，這往往是一次非常長途的穀物航行。不管怎樣，隨著巴拿馬運河的問題和紅海的問題，我們是否開始看到對船舶類型的興趣發生任何變化？是否越來越傾向於將一些穀物轉移到 Kamsarmax 上而不是 Supermax 上，我不知道？或者您是否在該前沿看到了任何東西，只是為了利用規模來進行更長的距離？

I wouldn't say there's a shift, but you know, Panamaxes and Kamsarmaxes have traditionally carried grain out of that area, but I wouldn't say there's actually a shift. I mean, I think you know the Kams this time of year in that area the Kamsarmax and the Ultramax market, Supermax market are fairly well linked. They're using all types of vessels to move that grain.

我不會說有轉變，但你知道，巴拿馬型船和卡姆薩爾型船傳統上將穀物運出該地區，但我不會說實際上有轉變。我的意思是，我想你知道 Kams 每年這個時候在該地區 Kamsarmax 和 Ultramax 市場、Supermax 市場都有很好的聯繫。他們使用各種類型的船隻來運輸穀物。

Again, in terms of Brazil, you're talking about another record crop off of last year projected on soybeans. Corn is down, but very slightly and then again, the Argentinian corn is going to move up. I mean, I think we only maybe about 27 million tons last year, but it's going to be 45 million, 46 million tons this year.

同樣，就巴西而言，您談論的是去年大豆產量預計將再創新高。玉米價格下跌，但幅度很小，然後阿根廷玉米價格將會上漲。我的意思是，我認為去年我們的產量可能只有 2700 萬噸左右，但今年將達到 4500 萬噸、4600 萬噸。

So again, that's going to be a record crop. I was actually down there last week, I saw it for myself. It is -- there's a lot of corn coming out of Argentina over the next few months.

再說一次，這將是創紀錄的產量。實際上我上週就在那裡，我親眼看到了它。未來幾個月，阿根廷將生產大量玉米。

Sherif Elmaghrabi, BTIG.

謝里夫·埃爾馬格拉比，BTIG。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question morning. First, regarding the leverage on the Ranger and the Reliance, is it thought to pay that down over time? I realize you have some cash from vessel sales coming in Q1, or could we see those ships secured under a new facility?

嗨，早安。感謝您早上提出我的問題。首先，關於 Ranger 和 Reliance 的槓桿，是否認為會隨著時間的推移而償還？我知道你們在第一季從船舶銷售中獲得了一些現金，或者我們可以看到這些船舶受到新設施的保護嗎？

Hi, Sherif. Thanks for your question. Yes, so like John mentioned earlier, we paid $86 million for those two ships in aggregate. We tapped the revolver and drew down $65 million. So in a bucket that was 75% loan to value. But obviously the leverage position of the company is very significantly lower than that pro forma of 10%.

嗨，謝里夫。謝謝你的提問。是的，就像約翰之前提到的那樣，我們總共為這兩艘船支付了 8600 萬美元。我們動用了左輪手槍，提取了 6500 萬美元。因此，貸款成數為 75%。但顯然該公司的槓桿狀況明顯低於預期的 10%。

As we're getting the sale proceeds from those three ships, we're going to actively manage our debt position to reduce interest expense and flow through the bottom line. The great thing about our new revolver is that there's no term loan component to it. So we can pay down debt, not lose borrowing capacity, and then if we do see an opportunity like the company saw in Q4, we can then tap the revolver to draw down. So I think to your point, there will be some active management of our debt from the current level of $200 million as those proceeds come in.

當我們從這三艘船獲得銷售收益時，我們將積極管理我們的債務狀況，以減少利息支出並增加利潤。我們的新左輪手槍的偉大之處在於它沒有定期貸款成分。因此，我們可以償還債務，而不是失去借貸能力，然後如果我們確實看到了公司在第四季度看到的機會，我們就可以動用左輪手槍來提款。因此，我認為就你的觀點而言，隨著這些收益的到來，我們將在目前 2 億美元的水平上對我們的債務進行一些積極的管理。

Thanks, Peter. That's helpful. And then you highlighted a handful of demand drivers for the recent market strength, and I think Omar's question touched on this. But a chunk of it seems to be the impact of canal [deblaze] on fleet supply. So do you think a full year of canal disruptions or maybe the better part of a year has been priced into vessel values? Sounds like the positive impact of El Niño in Brazil could also be a drag in the Panama Canal for example?

謝謝，彼得。這很有幫助。然後您強調了近期市場走強的一些需求驅動因素，我認為奧馬爾的問題觸及了這一點。但其中很大一部分似乎是運河[失火]對船隊供應的影響。那麼您認為一整年的運河中斷或一年中的大部分時間是否已計入船舶價值？聽起來厄爾尼諾現象對巴西的正面影響也可能對巴拿馬運河造成拖累？

Again, the Panama Canal is real in terms of creating fleet inefficiencies. It's hard to put a percentage of the fleet that's necessarily being taken out, but as I said, it's real. But again, I go back to the cargo flows, I mean, we've seen iron ore and bauxite up 10% over last year's levels. So those are real meaningful numbers, particularly when you have such a low order book and such a low delivery schedule. It creates a tremendous amount of leverage by just moving up incrementally on the demand side.

巴拿馬運河確實造成了船隊效率低落。很難確定一定會被消滅的艦隊的百分比，但正如我所說，這是真實的。但我再次回到貨運流量，我的意思是，我們看到鐵礦石和鋁土礦比去年的水平上漲了 10%。因此，這些都是真正有意義的數字，特別是當您的訂單量如此之低且交貨時間表如此之低時。透過逐步提升需求面，它就創造了巨大的槓桿作用。

[Ben, Clarksons Securities].

[本，克拉克森證券]。

Thank you. I just wanted to touch upon the capesize as well, I guess building on the questions of some of the other guys. You talk about the lower-than-normal seasonal factors and the trends in the second-hand market? How do you view potentially locking in some of your capes with current FFA values at around $27,000 for the remainder of the year?

謝謝。我只是想談談海岬型船，我想是基於其他一些人的問題。您談談低於正常水平的季節性因素和二手市場的趨勢嗎？您如何看待在今年剩餘時間內鎖定部分斗篷的可能性，目前 FFA 價值約為 27,000 美元？

So in the past we have definitely locked ships away for one to two years, even three years at a time, particularly as you're brought up in the capesize sector. We think that is a good way to manage risk. We're still relatively -- we're still bullish on the capesize market, so I would say it's a little too early to lock in, but it is certainly something that we're looking at. And as I said, we've done it in the past. And from time to time we think, we think it's the right move to take some risk off the table in the capes.

因此，在過去，我們肯定會將船隻鎖起來一到兩年，甚至一次三年，特別是當你在海岬型船領域長大時。我們認為這是管理風險的好方法。我們仍然相對看好海岬型船市場，所以我想說現在鎖定還為時過早，但這肯定是我們正在關注的事情。正如我所說，我們過去已經做到了。有時我們會想，我們認為這是在海角上消除一些風險的正確舉措。

The other thing I would point out is the index deals that we've recently done, as well as the past index deals have options for us to fix periods of time within those transactions. And we've done that -- we actually did that a little bit for the month of February in the first quarter, but obviously that was very short term and it was just to sort of get through the month of February. But we have that option to lock longer term.

我要指出的另一件事是我們最近完成的指數交易以及過去的指數交易可以讓我們選擇在這些交易中固定時間段。我們已經做到了——我們實際上在第一季的二月做了一點，但顯然這是非常短期的，只是為了度過二月。但我們可以選擇鎖定更長期的期限。

That's great color. And also if I could just touch upon the fleet renewal as well. You've been quite active on the cape side, but when should we expect to see some of the same for Supermaxes or if at all?

那顏色真棒。如果我也能談談機隊更新的話。你們在海角方面非常活躍，但是我們什麼時候應該看到 Supermax 方面的一些相同的情況，或者是否有呢？

You will. We're focused on some of the 58s. It's hard to put a definitive time frame on it, except that I would say I expect it to happen this year. Keep in mind that we have bought 11 ultras since 2018, So this has been an ongoing process. But now with where vessel values are, they seem to be firming. The momentum from the capes are moving down into the mid-sized vessels. So it's starting to make sense on the valuation front for some of our older 58. So it's definitely on the table. Just a little hard to give you the exact timing, but I certainly believe this year.

你會。我們重點關注其中的一些 58。很難給它設定一個明確的時間框架，但我會說我預計它會在今年發生。請記住，自 2018 年以來我們已經購買了 11 台 Ultra，因此這是一個持續的過程。但現在，隨著船舶價值的成長，它們似乎正在走穩。來自海岬的動力正在向下移動到中型船隻。因此，對於我們一些較老的 58 歲老人來說，它的估值開始變得有意義了。所以它肯定是擺在桌面上的。只是有點難以給你確切的時間，但我當然相信今年。

As there are no further questions at this time, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

由於目前沒有其他問題，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。

Thank you.

謝謝。