通用汽車 (GM) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the General Motors Company Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加通用汽車公司 2019 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded Tuesday, October 29, 2019.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議於 2019 年 10 月 29 日星期二錄製。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Rocky Gupta, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁洛基·古普塔 (Rocky Gupta)。

Thanks, Dorothy.

謝謝，多蘿西。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the third quarter of 2019.

早安，感謝您與我們一起回顧通用汽車 2019 年第三季的財務表現。

Our press release was issued this morning, and the conference call materials are available on the GM Investor Relations website.

我們的新聞稿於今天上午發布，電話會議資料可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上取得。

We are also broadcasting this call via webcast.

我們也透過網路廣播來廣播這次電話會議。

I'm joined today by Mary Barra, GM's Chairman and CEO; Dhivya Suryadevara, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; and a number of other executives.

今天，通用汽車公司董事長兼執行長瑪麗巴拉 (Mary Barra) 也加入了我的行列。 Dhivya Suryadevara，通用汽車執行副總裁兼財務長；以及其他一些高階主管。

Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set.

在我們開始之前，我想請您注意圖表組第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。

The contents of our call will be governed by this language.

我們通話的內容將受此語言管轄。

I will now turn the call over to Mary Barra.

我現在將把電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉。

Thanks, Rocky, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining.

謝謝洛基，大家早安，謝謝你們的加入。

As you know, we have a ratified labor agreement, and I am very glad that our highly skilled employees are back to work building winning cars, trucks, crossovers and components.

如你所知，我們有一份已批准的勞工協議，我很高興我們的高技能員工重返工作崗位，製造獲勝的汽車、卡車、跨界車和零件。

From the outset, our goal was to reach an agreement that works for our shareholders, our employees and our company, as we confront the realities of a rapidly transforming industry.

從一開始，我們的目標就是在面對快速轉型的產業現實時，達成對我們的股東、員工和公司都有利的協議。

Our contract does the right thing for our employees without compromising competitiveness or flexibility.

我們的合約在不影響競爭力或靈活性的情況下為我們的員工做了正確的事情。

It includes an improved path forward for our in-progression and temporary workers that will create more engagement and a motivated team.

它包括為我們的在職員工和臨時員工提供一條改進的前進道路，這將創造更多的參與度和積極主動的團隊。

This is foundational for improving job satisfaction, health and safety, quality and productivity, all of which will strengthen the future of this company and create shareholder value.

這是提高工作滿意度、健康與安全、品質和生產力的基礎，所有這些都將增強公司的未來並創造股東價值。

The contract also affirms our commitment to a strong U.S. manufacturing base with planned investments totaling $7.7 billion.

該合約還確認了我們對強大的美國製造基地的承諾，計劃投資總額達 77 億美元。

We'll secure the future of our Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant with an all-new electric pickup truck that builds on our established truck leadership.

我們將在我們既定的卡車領導地位的基礎上推出全新電動皮卡車，以確保底特律-哈姆特拉克裝配廠的未來。

We're also moving forward on an opportunity to bring battery cell production to the Mahoning Valley in Ohio, which would create 1,000 manufacturing jobs.

我們也致力於將電池生產帶到俄亥俄州馬哈寧谷，這將創造 1,000 個製造業就業機會。

Before I continue, I want to thank our dedicated suppliers.

在繼續之前，我要感謝我們熱心的供應商。

They were in constant contact with us throughout the work stoppage and ensuring us they will be ready for a prompt, safe restart once the new contract was ratified.

在整個停工期間，他們一直與我們保持聯繫，並確保我們在新合約獲得批准後，他們將做好迅速、安全重啟的準備。

And I'd also like to thank our dealers who helped us sustain our momentum in the marketplace, and they worked very hard to minimize the inconvenience to our customers caused by our limited ability to ship service and repair parts.

我還要感謝我們的經銷商，他們幫助我們維持了市場的發展勢頭，他們非常努力地工作，以最大程度地減少由於我們運送服務和維修零件的能力有限而給客戶帶來的不便。

To speed up recovery and get parts flowing to dealerships, comprehensive plans are in place to allow the network to recover as quickly as possible.

為了加速恢復並使零件流向經銷商，我們制定了全面的計劃，以使網路盡快恢復。

So now we are moving forward as one team.

所以現在我們作為一個團隊向前邁進。

However, we have a lot of work to do in many areas as the lost profits from the work stoppage were significant.

然而，由於停工造成的利潤損失巨大，我們在許多方面還有很多工作要做。

In a few minutes, Dhivya will talk about the financial impact of the strike and our full year outlook.

幾分鐘後，迪維亞將談論罷工的財務影響和我們的全年展望。

Overall, in the third quarter, we delivered net revenue of $35.5 billion, EBIT adjusted of $3 billion, EBIT-adjusted margin of 8.4%, EPS-diluted-adjusted of $1.72, automotive-adjusted free cash flow of $3.8 billion and a ROIC adjusted of 21.9% on a trailing 4-quarter basis.

整體而言，第三季度，我們實現了淨收入355 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤為30 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤率為8.4%，調整後攤薄每股收益為1.72 美元，調整後汽車業調整後自由現金流為38 億美元，調整後投資資本報酬率較過去 4 季成長 21.9%。

Looking at North America, we delivered strong business performance in the quarter, which was unfavorably impacted by the strike in the United States and increased warranty and retail costs related to our previous-generation full-size pickup trucks and full-size SUVs.

就北美地區而言，我們本季的業務表現強勁，受到美國罷工以及上一代全尺寸皮卡車和全尺寸 SUV 相關保固和零售成本增加的不利影響。

Overall, retail deliveries rose 6% year-over-year, led by double-digit gains in light-duty Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickups and strong demand for our all-new heavy-duty pickup trucks.

總體而言，零售交貨量年增 6%，其中輕型雪佛蘭索羅德 (Chevrolet Silverado) 和 GMC Sierra 皮卡實現兩位數增長，以及對我們全新重型皮卡的強勁需求。

Cadillac continues to capitalize on its expanding crossover portfolio in the United States and China.

凱迪拉克繼續利用其在美國和中國不斷擴大的跨界車產品組合。

In the U.S., Cadillac crossover deliveries increased by 67% in the quarter, led by the segment-leading XT4 and the all-new XT6, which is gaining momentum in the market.

在美國，凱迪拉克跨界車本季交付量成長了 67%，其中細分市場領先的 XT4 和全新 XT6 引領市場勢頭強勁。

In China, the XT4 and the new XT5 helped drive deliveries up 11% amidst lower industry sales.

在中國，在行業銷量下降的情況下，XT4 和新款 XT5 幫助推動交付量成長了 11%。

With the XT6 joining the lineup, we expect Cadillac will further strengthen its position in China's growing luxury SUV segment.

隨著XT6的加入，我們預計凱迪拉克將進一步鞏固其在中國不斷增長的豪華SUV市場中的地位。

Our luxury sedan portfolio updates continue with the launch of the all-new CT5 midsize luxury sedan in China this quarter, followed early next year by the U.S.-built CT5 and CT4 in North America.

我們的豪華轎車產品組合持續更新，本季在中國推出了全新 CT5 中型豪華轎車，明年初將在北美推出美國製造的 CT5 和 CT4。

Finally, as we look at meeting customer demand, our U.S. dealerships finished the third quarter with a healthy level of inventory.

最後，當我們著眼於滿足客戶需求時，我們的美國經銷商在第三季結束時擁有健康的庫存水準。

As the strike continued, our teams worked tirelessly to ensure we could ship as many vehicles as possible to our dealers.

隨著罷工的繼續，我們的團隊不知疲倦地工作，以確保我們能夠向經銷商運送盡可能多的車輛。

However, with no additional vehicles in the pipeline for many weeks, our dealer inventories will be temporarily leaner than we'd like.

然而，由於幾週內沒有更多車輛投入使用，我們的經銷商庫存將暫時低於我們的預期。

The team is doing everything in its power to restore our supply of vehicles back to normal levels.

團隊正在盡一切努力將我們的車輛供應恢復到正常水平。

Regarding our international operations, in China, the business environment remains challenging and volatile.

就我們的國際業務而言，中國的商業環境仍然充滿挑戰和波動。

Year-over-year industry vehicle sales declined nearly 11% in the quarter.

本季產業汽車銷量較去年同期下降近 11%。

We underperformed relative to the industry, mostly because of segment shifts and lower demand for outgoing models, partially offset by growth in Cadillac delivery.

相對於行業而言，我們的表現不佳，主要是因為細分市場的變化和對即將推出的車型的需求下降，但部分被凱迪拉克交付量的增長所抵消。

In addition to taking appropriate cost actions, we are improving our product mix.

除了採取適當的成本行動外，我們還在改進我們的產品組合。

We launched 7 new models in third quarter with plans to launch 5 new and refreshed models in the fourth quarter.

我們在第三季推出了 7 款新車型，並計劃在第四季推出 5 款新車型和改款車型。

In addition, the team continues to focus on accelerating cost-reduction initiatives to improve performance given the business environment.

此外，該團隊繼續專注於加速成本削減計劃，以在特定的業務環境下提高績效。

In South America, we continue to take steps to improve the business and protect our strong franchise while navigating FX and other macro challenges.

在南美洲，我們繼續採取措施改善業務並保護我們強大的特許經營權，同時應對外匯和其他宏觀挑戰。

In September, we launched the all-new 2020 Chevrolet Onix Plus in Brazil.

9月，我們在巴西推出了全新2,020年式雪佛蘭Onix Plus。

It is the first model in South America from our new global family of vehicles and carries a 5-star safety rating.

它是我們新的全球汽車系列中在南美洲的首款車型，並具有 5 星級安全評級。

During its initial month on sale, customer demand greatly outpaced available supply, and we are doubling our production this month.

在銷售的第一個月，客戶的需求大大超過了可用的供應，我們本月的產量翻了一番。

The Onix hatchback follows next month.

Onix 掀背車將於下個月推出。

And together, we believe these new vehicles will further strengthen our Chevy brand leadership and Onix position as the region's best-selling vehicle.

我們相信這些新車將進一步鞏固我們的雪佛蘭品牌領導地位以及 Onix 作為該地區最暢銷汽車的地位。

As we execute our turnaround plan for international operations, we continue to take decisive steps to achieve sustainable profitability in every market we participate and cease operations that are not.

在執行國際業務週轉計劃時，我們將繼續採取果斷措施，在我們參與的每個市場實現可持續盈利，並停止不參與的業務。

Earlier this week, we announced our intent to cease selling Chevrolet vehicles in Indonesia over the coming quarters.

本週早些時候，我們宣布打算在未來幾季停止在印尼銷售雪佛蘭汽車。

Turning to our EV progress.

轉向我們的電動車進展。

Chevrolet is launching the 2020 Bolt EV with battery improvements that enable an EPA estimated 259 miles of all-electric range on a full charge at the same price.

雪佛蘭正在推出 2020 年 Bolt EV，其電池經過改進，據 EPA 估計，在相同價格下充滿電後可行駛 259 英里的全電動續航里程。

The more powerful battery pack is the same size and weight as previous year's models, but its greater energy density delivers 21 additional miles of range, and that's more value to our customers.

更強大的電池組的尺寸和重量與去年的型號相同，但其更高的能量密度可額外增加 21 英里的續航里程，這對我們的客戶來說更有價值。

It builds on our industry leadership in improving battery range and reducing battery cell cost per kilowatt hour, and we expect this progress to continue.

它建立在我們在提高電池續航里程和降低每千瓦時電池成本方面的行業領先地位之上，我們預計這一進展將繼續下去。

The 2020 Bolt also retains what our customers love about this vehicle: instant torque, excellent ride and handling and a 0 to 60 time of just 6.5 seconds.

2020 年 Bolt 還保留了客戶對這款車輛的喜愛：即時扭矩、出色的行駛和操控性以及 0 至 60 英里加速僅需 6.5 秒。

And on the AV front, Cruise increased its testing and validation miles during the quarter and increased its community engagement and relationship building.

在自動駕駛方面，Cruise 在本季度增加了測試和驗證里程，並增加了社區參與和關係建立。

In addition to Cruise, GM and Honda continued their joint development of a new purpose-built shared autonomous vehicle.

除了 Cruise 之外，通用汽車和本田還繼續共同開發一款新型專用共享自動駕駛汽車。

So to recap, our strong operating performance in the quarter was supported by our robust sales of trucks and crossovers in the United States.

回顧一下，我們本季強勁的經營業績得益於我們在美國的卡車和跨界車的強勁銷售。

We've also made significant progress on our transformational cost initiatives.

我們在成本轉型計劃方面也取得了重大進展。

GM has achieved $2.4 billion in transformation cost savings since 2018 and is on track to realize our 2019 target.

自 2018 年以來，通用汽車已節省了 24 億美元的轉型成本，並有望實現 2019 年的目標。

Because of additional planned investments in U.S. manufacturing, we will revise our year-end 2020 cost-savings target to a range between $4 billion and $4.5 billion.

由於計劃對美國製造業進行額外投資，我們將把 2020 年底成本節約目標修改為 40 億至 45 億美元。

We will take all of the necessary steps to achieve as much as possible to our original savings target.

我們將採取一切必要措施，盡可能實現我們最初的儲蓄目標。

The strike did have a big impact on our Q3 EBIT-adjusted results and will also significantly impact our Q4 results.

這次罷工確實對我們第三季息稅前調整後的業績產生了重大影響，也將顯著影響我們第四季的業績。

Most of our 2019 strike-related production losses will not be recovered in 2019 because of capacity constraints.

由於產能限制，我們 2019 年罷工造成的大部分生產損失將無法在 2019 年恢復。

Therefore, we are revising our 2019 EPS-diluted-adjusted and automotive -- adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance.

因此，我們正在修訂 2019 年每股攤薄調整後和汽車調整後汽車自由現金流指引。

Our full year updated EPS-diluted-adjusted outlook is now in the range of $4.50 to $4.80, and our new adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance is 0 to $1 billion.

我們的全年更新後攤薄調整後每股收益前景目前在 4.50 美元至 4.80 美元之間，我們新調整後的汽車自由現金流指引為 0 至 10 億美元。

I have asked the GM team to find every offset now that production has resumed, and I am confident they will find many opportunities.

我已經要求通用汽車團隊在生產恢復後找到每一個補償，我相信他們會找到很多機會。

So with that, I will turn it over to Dhivya.

因此，我將把它交給 Dhivya。

Thanks, Mary, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝瑪麗，大家早安。

Today, I want to disclose our performance for the quarter, the impact of the strike, the labor agreement, and finally, our outlook for the year.

今天，我想揭露我們本季的業績、罷工的影響、勞工協議，最後是我們對今年的展望。

In the third quarter, we generated $35.5 billion in net revenues, $3 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 8.4% margin, $1.72 in EPS-diluted-adjusted and $3.8 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow.

第三季度，我們的淨收入為 355 億美元，調整後息稅前利潤為 30 億美元，利潤率為 8.4%，稀釋後每股收益為 1.72 美元，調整後汽車自由現金流為 38 億美元。

The EBIT-adjusted impact of the strike in the third quarter was $1.3 billion on a gross basis.

第三季罷工調整後的息稅前利潤影響總額為 13 億美元。

This reflects lost production of a richer product mix as we launched our high-content, high-margin, heavy-duty crew cabs as well as the impact of lost aftermarket sales.

這反映了我們推出高含量、高利潤、重型雙排座駕駛室時更豐富的產品組合的生產損失，以及售後市場銷售損失的影響。

This impact was partially offset by approximately $300 million in strike-related favorable timing items.

這一影響被約 3 億美元的罷工相關有利時機項目部分抵消。

Net of these timing items, the EPS during the quarter was lower by approximately $0.52 and the adjusted automotive free cash flow was lower by approximately $400 million due to the strike.

扣除這些時間項目後，由於罷工，本季每股收益減少了約 0.52 美元，調整後的汽車自由現金流減少了約 4 億美元。

Adjusting for the impact of the strike, EPS would have been $2.24, an all-time quarterly record.

考慮到罷工的影響，每股收益將為 2.24 美元，創歷史季度記錄。

The $1.72 EPS-diluted-adjusted also includes a $0.15 loss from Lyft and PSA revaluations.

1.72 美元的稀釋調整後每股收益還包括 Lyft 和 PSA 重估帶來的 0.15 美元損失。

Now let's take a closer look at North America.

現在讓我們仔細看看北美。

North America delivered EBIT adjusted of $3 billion, up $200 million year-over-year, and 10.8% margin driven by our heavy-duty truck performance, our crossover performance and the benefits from our cost actions.

北美地區的調整後息稅前利潤為 30 億美元，年增 2 億美元，利潤率為 10.8%，這得益於我們的重型卡車性能、跨界車性能以及成本行動帶來的收益。

This was partially offset by the impact of the strike, warranty costs and lower pension income.

這部分被罷工、保固成本和退休金收入下降的影響所抵銷。

Our newly launched heavy-duty trucks contributed favorably to volume, mix and price during the quarter.

我們新推出的重型卡車為本季的銷售、產品結構和價格做出了積極貢獻。

Market share for our large pickup trucks continues to improve, up 5 percentage points in Q3 year-over-year.

大型皮卡市佔率持續提升，第三季較去年同期提升5個百分點。

We started deliveries of our heavy-duties in Q2, and we have gained 6 percentage points in market share since the launch.

我們在第二季度開始交付重型車輛，自推出以來我們的市佔率增加了 6 個百分點。

Our light-duty pickup trucks improved 6.8% at retail in Q3 year-over-year to over 40% as we rolled out diesel and other cab variants.

隨著我們推出柴油和其他駕駛室變型，我們的輕型皮卡零售量在第三季度同比增長 6.8%，達到 40% 以上。

We will have the same launch cadence strategy for the heavy-duty as we did for the light-duty with the rollout of double cabs next followed by regular cabs.

我們將為重型車採用與輕型車相同的推出節奏策略，首先推出雙駕駛室，然後是普通駕駛室。

Switching to crossovers.

切換到交叉。

U.S. deliveries grew 29% year-over-year with the Chevrolet Blazer and Cadillac XT6 providing strong contributions to our results.

美國的交付量年增 29%，其中雪佛蘭 Blazer 和凱迪拉克 XT6 為我們的業績做出了強勁貢獻。

Let's move to GM International.

讓我們轉向通用汽車國際公司。

For the third quarter, EBIT adjusted in GMI was down $200 million year-over-year driven by lower equity income in China.

第三季度，由於中國股權收入下降，GMI 調整後息稅前利潤較去年同期下降 2 億美元。

Continued industry weakness and pricing pressure resulted in Q3 equity income down $200 million year-over-year from record Q3 2018 levels.

持續的產業疲軟和定價壓力導致第三季股權收入較 2018 年第三季創紀錄水準年減 2 億美元。

We did see slight benefits from improved mix, partially due to our recently launched vehicles.

我們確實看到了改進組合帶來的輕微好處，部分原因是我們最近推出的車輛。

A few comments on GM Financial, Cruise and our core segment.

關於通用汽車金融、郵輪和我們的核心部門的一些評論。

GM Financial posted record quarterly revenue of $3.7 billion in the third quarter and record EBT-adjusted of $700 million, primarily as a result of portfolio growth.

通用汽車金融公司第三季的季度收入創紀錄地達到了 37 億美元，經稅前利潤調整後的收入達到創紀錄的 7 億美元，這主要是由於投資組合的增長。

Cruise costs were $300 million for the quarter, on track with approximately $1 billion communicated previously for the full year as we increase our head count.

本季的郵輪成本為 3 億美元，隨著我們增加員工數量，先前通報的全年郵輪成本約為 10 億美元。

Core segment costs of third year -- sorry, third quarter were $500 million, unfavorable $400 million year-over-year, primarily due to net loss of $280 million from Lyft and PSA investments in the third quarter of this year, compared to $170 million gain from our PSA investment in the third quarter of last year.

第三年核心部門成本——抱歉，第三季為 5 億美元，年比不利 4 億美元，主要是由於今年第三季 Lyft 和 PSA 投資淨虧損 2.8 億美元，而去年同期為 1.7 億美元我們去年第三季的PSA 投資獲得了收益。

We have made significant progress on our transformational cost-savings initiatives with $2.4 billion achieved since 2018.

自 2018 年以來，我們在轉型成本節約計畫方面取得了重大進展，已實現 24 億美元的目標。

We're on track with our 2019 target of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, achieving $1.9 billion year-to-date and $800 million in the third quarter.

我們正朝著 2019 年 20 億至 25 億美元的目標邁進，今年迄今實現 19 億美元，第三季實現 8 億美元。

Let me update you on our outlook for the calendar year.

讓我向您介紹我們對本日曆年的最新展望。

The recent strike has obviously had a negative impact on our financial performance in Q3 and more so in Q4.

最近的罷工顯然對我們第三季的財務表現產生了負面影響，尤其是第四季。

We estimate the calendar year EPS-diluted-adjusted impact to be approximately $2 per share and adjusted automotive free cash flow impact to be approximately $5.5 billion, including the impact of working capital unwind.

我們估計歷年每股攤薄調整後 EPS 的影響約為每股 2 美元，調整後的汽車自由現金流影響約為 55 億美元，其中包括營運資本縮減的影響。

The $2 in EPS reflects lost production of a richer mix, lost aftermarket sales, start-up and ramp costs and is net of a higher U.S. tax rate on lost earnings.

每股收益 2 美元反映了更豐富的產品組合的生產損失、售後市場銷售損失、啟動和提升成本，並且扣除了美國因收入損失而徵收的較高稅率。

While we continue to work on strike recovery efforts, we anticipate that only a small portion of the losses sustained during the strike can be recovered this year due to capacity constraints.

雖然我們繼續致力於罷工恢復工作，但由於產能限制，我們預計今年只能恢復罷工期間遭受的一小部分損失。

Factoring in all of this, our updated 2019 EPS-diluted-adjusted outlook is in the range of $4.50 to $4.80.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們更新後的 2019 年稀釋調整後每股收益展望在 4.50 美元至 4.80 美元之間。

Touching on CapEx.

談到資本支出。

We expect 2019 CapEx of approximately $7.5 billion this year due to timing and early achievement of commitments.

由於時機和承諾的提前實現，我們預計今年 2019 年的資本支出約為 75 億美元。

Updating for this and the impact of the strike, we expect adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance in the range of 0 to $1 billion.

根據這種情況以及罷工的影響，我們預計調整後的汽車自由現金流指引將在 0 至 10 億美元之間。

I would like to provide some additional perspective around this guidance.

我想圍繞本指南提供一些額外的觀點。

The underlying EPS and free cash flow guidance is consistent with the range given in January.

基本每股盈餘和自由現金流指引與 1 月給出的範圍一致。

We have experienced a highly unusual situation with the shutdown of our North American operations for 6 weeks.

我們經歷了一個非常不尋常的情況，我們的北美業務已關閉六週。

We are restarting our operations very close to year-end and the speed of production ramp and timing factors are very difficult to predict at this point.

我們將在接近年底的時候重新開始運營，目前很難預測產量成長的速度和時間因素。

We have provided the best estimated outlook given the information that we have to date.

根據我們迄今為止所掌握的信息，我們提供了最佳的前景預測。

Next, I want to briefly talk about the impact of our new labor agreement.

接下來我想簡單講一下我們新的勞資協議的影響。

The new agreement preserves our competitiveness, manufacturing flexibility and balance sheet strength without compromising earnings power.

新協議保留了我們的競爭力、製造彈性和資產負債表實力，同時又不影響獲利能力。

We have maintained the mix of our North American manufacturing footprint, maintained the ability to adjust our workforce in response to changing industry levels, protected the balance sheet with no increase to defined benefit pension obligations and no payments or increased obligations to retirees.

我們保持了北美製造業足跡的混合，保持了根據不斷變化的行業水平調整勞動力的能力，保護了資產負債表，沒有增加固定福利退休金義務，也沒有向退休人員支付或增加義務。

We maintained breakeven levels in the 10 million to 11 million unit range in the U.S. and therefore preserved our ability to navigate through a downturn.

我們在美國的銷量保持在 1000 萬至 1100 萬輛之間，因此保持了度過經濟低迷時期的能力。

It is important to note that while this labor agreement is inflationary, we expect to offset incremental economics over the contract period with productivity initiatives.

值得注意的是，雖然這份勞工協議會導致通貨膨脹，但我們預期將透過生產力措施來抵銷合約期間的增量經濟效益。

Finally, I want to briefly touch on 2020.

最後，我想簡單談談2020年。

While we will provide full guidance in February, let me help frame the year by outlining a number of puts and takes.

雖然我們將在二月提供全面的指導，但讓我透過概述一些看法來幫助制定這一年的計劃。

Headwind for 2020 include likely lower industry volumes, downtime and ramp-up for the launch of our full-size SUVs, higher depreciation and continued volatility in China and in South America.

2020 年的不利因素包括行業銷量可能下降、我們全尺寸 SUV 推出的停工和加速、折舊上升以及中國和南美的持續波動。

Opportunities in 2020 include full year of heavy-duty truck production, transformational cost savings and product launches, including the Corvette, Encore GX, Trailblazer and our global family of vehicles.

2020 年的機會包括全年重型卡車生產、轉型成本節約和產品發布，包括 Corvette、Encore GX、Trailblazer 和我們的全球汽車系列。

The ability to recover lost production during the strike in 2020 will depend on industry performance and our capacity availability as we already run our full-size truck plants at maximum 3-shift capacity.

恢復 2020 年罷工期間生產損失的能力將取決於行業表現和我們的產能可用性，因為我們已經以最大 3 班制產能運行全尺寸卡車工廠。

Lastly, as a result of our decision to invest in our Detroit-Hamtramck plant, we will incur operating costs that were outside the scope of our original transformation plan.

最後，由於我們決定投資底特律-哈姆特拉克工廠，我們將產生超出我們最初轉型計畫範圍的營運成本。

While this slightly revises our year-end cost-savings target to $4 billion to $4.5 billion, we will work to find every opportunity to maximize the cost-savings potential.

雖然這將我們的年終成本節約目標略微修改為 40 億至 45 億美元，但我們將努力尋找一切機會，最大限度地發揮成本節約潛力。

We are committed to our capital plan of approximately $7 billion annually and our long-term financial trajectory, including 10% core EBIT-adjusted margins and improving our free cash flow conversion.

我們致力於每年約 70 億美元的資本計畫和長期財務軌跡，包括 10% 的核心 EBIT 調整利潤率和改善我們的自由現金流轉換。

In summary, the underlying business remained strong and our guidance is consistent with the range given in January, excluding the impact of the strike.

總之，基礎業務依然強勁，我們的指導與 1 月給出的範圍一致，排除了罷工的影響。

We have a labor agreement that preserves our competitiveness and flexibility, and we expect to offset economics over the contract period with productivity.

我們有一份勞工協議，可以保留我們的競爭力和靈活性，我們希望用生產力來抵消合約期間的經濟影響。

The environment is more challenging than just a few months ago, but the entire team is focused on our execution, both over the short and the long term.

現在的環境比幾個月前更具挑戰性，但整個團隊都專注於我們的執行，無論是短期還是長期。

This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的開場評論到此結束，現在我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Just to start on maybe some of the cash flow dynamics you mentioned, the CapEx lowered this year and that seems a part on timing and early achievement.

首先從您提到的一些現金流動態開始，今年資本支出降低了，這似乎是時機和早期成就的一部分。

Can you -- can we get some color on each factor?

我們可以對每個因素做一些說明嗎？

I guess I want to gauge how much of the timing could impact 2020 on free cash flow.

我想我想衡量一下時機會對 2020 年自由現金流產生多大影響。

I know you said, on average, $7 billion per year, but it seems like maybe 2020 might be a little bit higher than that.

我知道你說過，平均每年 70 億美元，但 2020 年似乎可能會比這個數字高一點。

And then also related to free cash, with the working capital unwind in the fourth quarter, how much should we expect to recover into 2020?

然後也與自由現金有關，隨著第四季營運資金的減少，我們預計到 2020 年可以恢復多少？

Yes.

是的。

Joe, I would say from a CapEx standpoint, the early achievement of the CapEx commitments in 2019 does not impact our commitment to achieve $7 billion in 2020, so that commitment remains intact.

Joe，我想說，從資本支出的角度來看，2019 年資本支出承諾的提前實現不會影響我們在 2020 年實現 70 億美元的承諾，因此這項承諾保持不變。

From a timing perspective, even though we'll pull forward in 2019, we still think we can achieve that.

從時機的角度來看，儘管我們會在 2019 年提前，但我們仍然認為我們可以實現這一目標。

To your question on free cash flow impact, obviously, there's a flow-through from the profit impact into free cash flow.

對於你關於自由現金流影響的問題，顯然，利潤影響會流向自由現金流。

In addition to that, we see working capital and sales allowance and policy and warranty and so on, timing items are driving the remaining amount there.

除此之外，我們還看到營運資金、銷售補貼、保單和保固等，計時計畫正在推動剩餘金額的成長。

So the $5.5 billion comprises of the lost profit and the working capital unwind.

因此，55 億美元包括利潤損失和營運資金減少。

CapEx remains intact, and that's the map to get to the $5.5 billion.

資本支出保持不變，這就是達到 55 億美元的目標。

Okay.

好的。

And I know, Dhivya, you said recovery of volume next year is dependent on the market.

我知道，Dhivya，您說過明年銷售的恢復取決於市場。

And as you noted, you're running all out on the trucks.

正如你所指出的，你的卡車已經用完了。

But if we assume an environment in 2020 similar to '19, like just back of the envelope, I was sort of just looking at the calendar and counting days and make some assumptions.

但如果我們假設 2020 年的環境與 19 年類似，就像信封後面一樣，我只是查看日曆併計算天數並做出一些假設。

It seems like you might be able to get back 50% to 60% of it.

看起來你也許能拿回50%到60%。

Is that reasonable?

這樣合理嗎？

I think it's really hard to call that now, Joe, partially because you also need to figure out what the truck industry is going to be like, i.e., the segment share within the industry.

我認為現在很難這麼稱呼，喬，部分原因是你還需要弄清楚卡車行業將會是什麼樣子，即行業內的細分市場份額。

And to your point, we are running those all out.

就您而言，我們正在耗盡所有這些。

It's difficult to add overtime on top of overtime.

加班之外再加上加班是很困難的。

So we will recover every unit that we possibly can.

因此，我們將盡可能恢復所有單位。

It's just difficult to predict now at this point what that would look like.

現在很難預測那會是什麼樣子。

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

A couple questions.

有幾個問題。

First, looks like the adjusted free cash flow with the adjustments you're making would have put this year's free cash flow at $5.5 billion to $6 billion, if it wasn't for the strike.

首先，如果沒有罷工，調整後的自由現金流和您所做的調整將使今年的自由現金流達到 55 億至 60 億美元。

And it appears that you've got another $1 billion to $1.5 billion of savings for next year.

看來您明年還可以節省 10 億至 15 億美元。

The original number was closer to $2 billion, and it sounds like the variance there was Hamtramck.

最初的數字接近 20 億美元，聽起來像是 Hamtramck 的差異。

So what's evolved in your thinking on Hamtramck since earlier in the year?

那麼自今年稍早以來，您對 Hamtramck 的看法發生了哪些變化？

So when we made the transformation announcement last year, although we had a battery electric truck in our plan, as we continue to evolve that and look at the full range of what we can do there to really maintain our truck leadership position and grow that into battery electric trucks, we looked at Detroit-Hamtramck as a great opportunity and counting on getting an appropriate labor agreement there.

因此，當我們去年宣布轉型時，儘管我們的計劃中有一輛電池電動卡車，但隨著我們不斷發展它並考慮我們可以做的全方位工作，以真正保持我們的卡車領導地位並將其發展為電池電動卡車，我們將底特律-哈姆特拉克視為一個很好的機會，並指望在那裡獲得適當的勞工協議。

And so we think this is a good investment, positions us well to lead in battery electric trucks as well as internal combustion trucks.

因此，我們認為這是一項很好的投資，使我們能夠在電池電動卡車和內燃機卡車領域處於領先地位。

And so that's -- as that portfolio as we further planned it, it became clear that we could be more efficient doing that work there.

因此，隨著我們進一步規劃該投資組合，很明顯，我們可以更有效地在那裡進行這項工作。

Okay.

好的。

On North America and GM Financial, looked like they were very strong this quarter.

在北美和通用汽車金融方面，看起來他們本季非常強勁。

Obviously, there's unusual items that affect both of those right now.

顯然，現在有一些不尋常的事情影響著這兩者。

Could you just talk a little bit about those aside from just the things like launch?

除了發布之類的事情之外，您能談談其他一些事情嗎？

But did you make any adjustments to pre-existing warranties in North America?

但是你們對北美現有的保固做了任何調整嗎？

And how should we be thinking about the cadence for GM Financial going forward and what that may mean for releasing cash from that business?

我們應該如何考慮通用汽車金融公司未來的節奏以及這對於從該業務中釋放現金意味著什麼？

Sure.

當然。

From a North American standpoint, yes, it was a very strong quarter.

從北美的角度來看，是的，這是一個非常強勁的季度。

The cadence of our heavy-duty launch helped a lot from a mix standpoint since we're rolling out crew cabs for the most part, and that will normalize as we roll out the other variants as well.

從混合的角度來看，我們重型發布的節奏有很大幫助，因為我們大部分都推出了雙排座駕駛室，並且隨著我們推出其他變體，這也將正常化。

To your question on warranty, we had a $700 million year-over-year unfavorable and that was primarily driven by the K2 warranty cost that Mary mentioned in her remarks as well as there was a onetime favorable item in 2018 of last year which does not repeat in 2019.

對於你關於保固的問題，我們有 7 億美元的同比不利，這主要是由於瑪麗在她的演講中提到的 K2 保固成本以及去年 2018 年有一個曾經有利的項目，但它並沒有2019 年重複。

So from a year-over-year delta perspective, that impacts as well.

因此，從逐年增量的角度來看，這也會產生影響。

And in Q3, I'd say, rather, we go through a normal true-up process from a warranty perspective, and there were some top-ups relative to that as well, but that was on the smaller side of things, that should capture that.

在第三季度，我想說，從保固的角度來看，我們經歷了一個正常的調整過程，並且也有一些與之相關的充值，但這是事情的較小方面，這應該抓住那個。

From an GM Financial perspective, the biggest item I'd point to is the fact that residual values have been coming in stronger than what we had previously accounted for.

從通用汽車金融公司的角度來看，我要指出的最重要的一點是，剩餘價值的成長比我們之前所考慮的要強。

So as you go forward there, you may want to think about some kind of a normalization there.

因此，當您繼續前進時，您可能需要考慮某種標準化。

The offset to that would be the continued growth in the size of the book as they move closer towards full captive.

隨著他們接近完全俘虜，書籍的大小將持續增長，從而抵消這種影響。

Those are the normalizing items from a GM Financial perspective.

這些是從通用汽車財務角度來看的正常化項目。

Okay.

好的。

And just to clarify, in North America, I was asking about the incentive accruals.

為了澄清一下，在北美，我問的是應計獎勵。

You had over 700,000 units of inventory and I would have presumed that you'd make some adjustments just given the prospects for declining inventory.

你們有超過 70 萬單位的庫存，考慮到庫存下降的前景，我認為你們會做出一些調整。

But was there anything unusual there?

但那裡有什麼不尋常的地方嗎？

And can you tell us what your expectation is for Q4 production at this point?

您能告訴我們您對第四季產量的預期嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say nothing specifically on the incentive side.

在激勵方面我不想多說什麼。

It will obviously be -- it'll be vehicle by vehicle and will be driven by market dynamics and nothing specifically to point out there from a true-up or whatever perspective.

顯然，這將是一個接一個的車輛，並將由市場動態驅動，沒有什麼可以從真實或任何角​​度特別指出。

From a Q4 production, we are now back up and running and all of our plants are running all out.

從第四季度的生產開始，我們現在已恢復正常運行，所有工廠都在全力運作。

And like we said, we're going to take the opportunity to get any extra units that we can and that's all we can comment on at this time.

正如我們所說，我們將藉此機會盡可能獲得任何額外的單位，這就是我們目前能發表的全部評論。

And since we're still in ramp-up and we're trying to maximize the number of units, we'll have more to share about that when we report Q4.

由於我們仍處於加速階段，並且正在努力最大限度地增加單位數量，因此當我們報告第四季度時，我們將分享更多相關內容。

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

A first question, just around the labor agreement and the special attrition buyout program.

第一個問題，圍繞著勞工協議和特殊減員買斷計畫。

It looks like it's only targeting about 2,000 workers.

看起來它只針對大約 2,000 名工人。

But based on sort of what I've been able to dig up, it seems like half of your workers are senior, meaning they're getting defined benefit pensions and natural attrition on an annual basis is about 2,000 workers.

但根據我所了解到的情況，你們的員工中似乎有一半是高階員工，這意味著他們領取固定福利退休金，而每年的自然減員約為 2,000 名員工。

So just curious why the special attrition program and that buyout might not target more workers.

所以只是好奇為什麼特殊的減員計劃和買斷可能不會針對更多的工人。

And then over time, in the next 3 years, before the next contract, would that impact sort of natural attrition?

然後隨著時間的推移，在接下來的三年裡，在下一份合約之前，這會影響自然流失嗎？

Meaning, would we still expect to see 2,000 per year?

也就是說，我們還會期望每年看到 2,000 個嗎？

So first, just why isn't it a larger program?

首先，為什麼它不是一個更大的程式？

And second, what kind of impact would it have on natural attrition over time?

其次，隨著時間的推移，它會對自然損耗產生什麼樣的影響？

I think a couple of things you have to think about is, first of all, one big component of the special attrition program was to give people choices.

我認為你必須考慮的幾件事是，首先，特別減員計畫的一個重要組成部分是為人們提供選擇。

Although we have jobs for everybody that was impacted by the unallocation of the 3 plants, we wanted to give them options and so there's a target there from that perspective.

儘管我們為所有因未分配這三個工廠而受到影響的人提供了工作，但我們希望為他們提供選擇，因此從這個角度來看，我們有一個目標。

And the other thing is you can -- we think that, again, people wait and look to see if there's going to be a special attrition program, but then we also do see the natural attrition over the course of the agreement.

另一件事是你可以——我們再次認為，人們會等待並看看是否會有一個特殊的減員計劃，但我們也確實看到了協議過程中的自然減員。

So I would expect that to continue.

所以我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

And that's how we size what we thought the SAP should be.

這就是我們認為 SAP 應該有的規模。

Okay.

好的。

And Mary, when we think about the -- those attritions, whether it be special or sort of natural over the next few years, what is your plan as far as backfilling for those workers?

瑪麗，當我們想到這些人員流失時，無論是未來幾年的特殊情況還是自然情況，您在補充這些工人方面有何計劃？

I mean would they be replaced one for one with in-progression workers or entry-level workers?

我的意思是，他們會被在職工人或入門級工人一對一取代嗎？

Or could they be folks that get hired out in California to work on crew?

或者他們可能是在加州受僱為船員工作的人？

Just trying to understand sort of the thought process of what -- how to size the labor force going forward.

只是想了解如何調整未來勞動力規模的思考過程。

Well, I think there's many different components of the labor force.

嗯，我認為勞動力有許多不同的組成部分。

There's a Cruise labor force.

克魯斯有一支勞動力隊伍。

There's our salary workforce and then there's our representative workforce.

有我們的工資勞動力，還有我們的代表性勞動力。

And I think your question is directed at the representative workforce.

我認為你的問題是針對代表性的勞動力的。

We're going to continue to work on productivity, and we have opportunity there.

我們將繼續致力於提高生產力，我們在那裡有機會。

We also have a lot of opportunity to continue to improve our manufacturing processes.

我們還有很多機會繼續改進我們的製造流程。

We've done a lot of work this year on complexity optimization, and we're driving that in from a design for manufacturability perspective into how we design vehicles.

今年我們在複雜性優化方面做了很多工作，我們正在將其從可製造性設計的角度引入我們如何設計車輛。

We've also been able to find more and more opportunities for reuse without impacting a customer's view of the vehicle as being all-new, especially when you look at some of the architectural components.

我們也能夠找到越來越多的重複利用機會，而不會影響客戶對車輛的全新看法，特別是當您查看某些架構組件時。

We also have a program we've been working on for many years called built-in quality level 4. And by the end of the year, virtually all of our plants will have achieved built-in quality 4 -- built-in quality level 4, which leads to, first, better health and safety and better quality as measured by 2 months' and 12 months' warranty performance.

我們還有一個多年來一直致力於的計劃，稱為內置質量級別 4。的保固表現衡量，可以帶來更好的健康和安全以及更好的品質。

So we see, I'll say, traditional productivity improvements.

所以我想說的是，我們看到了傳統生產力的提升。

We see efficiencies on how we design vehicles and components from a DFMEA perspective, and then we see the results coming from our built-in quality level 4. All of those things are going to help us make sure we optimize the workforce and optimize our manufacturing costs.

我們從 DFMEA 的角度看到了設計車輛和零件的效率，然後我們看到了我們內建品質等級 4 的結果。

As we need to hire additional workers, we'll utilize both temps, and I'm very proud of the fact that we provided an appropriate path to permanent employment for our temporary workforce and then also maintain the in-progression flow.

由於我們需要雇用更多工人，因此我們將利用這兩種臨時工，我感到非常自豪的是，我們為臨時勞動力提供了一條適當的永久就業途徑，然後也維持了正在進行的流程。

So we'll utilize both of those depending on the plan and the situation at that plant.

因此，我們將根據計劃和該工廠的情況來利用這兩種方法。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then just on the SUV launch, is there any change in timing for next year on the SUV launch given what's happened with the strike?

那麼關於 SUV 的發布，考慮到罷工的情況，明年 SUV 的發佈時間是否有任何變化？

We haven't specifically said when those launches, they will occur, and we'll roll out all 3 versions next year.

我們還沒有具體說明這些版本何時發布，但我們將在明年推出所有 3 個版本。

And of course, the team is working to do everything possible to make sure we have successful high-quality launches with minimizing the impact of the acceleration curve.

當然，團隊正在盡一切可能確保我們成功進行高品質發射，同時最大限度地減少加速曲線的影響。

So those -- we still will get all those done next year, and I'm not going to give any more specifics on timing.

所以，我們明年仍然會完成所有這些工作，我不會提供更多關於時間的細節。

Okay.

好的。

And then just lastly, there's been a lot of negative comments on pricing, and some came from one of your crosstown rivals, but also sort of in the press.

最後，關於定價有很多負面評論，其中一些來自同城競爭對手之一，但也來自媒體。

Yet the quarter, on your majors, you put up a $400 million positive, but more importantly, you put up a $200 million positive on your carryovers.

然而，本季度，您在專業上投入了 4 億美元的正值，但更重要的是，您在結轉資金上投入了 2 億美元的正值。

I mean what are you seeing in the pricing, sort of the competitive landscape for pricing?

我的意思是，您在定價中看到了什麼，定價的競爭格局是什麼？

I mean in that -- and is that $200 million positive from carryovers, was that benefited by some shortages during the strike?

我的意思是——這 2 億美元是來自結轉的正數，是因為罷工期間的一些短缺而受益嗎？

Or are you actually seeing some real net positive price on carryovers?

或者您實際上看到了結轉的一些真正的淨正價格嗎？

Yes.

是的。

From a majors perspective, I'd say it's mainly driven by our heavy-duty and the variance of the light-duties that we have recently launched.

從專業角度來看，我想說這主要是由我們的重型和我們最近推出的輕型的差異所推動的。

So those were strong, and that's really the truck franchise that's driving that.

所以這些都很強大，而這確實是卡車特許經營權的推動力。

On the carryover side, the outgoing model from a car perspective, we reduced our incentives on that quite a bit.

在結轉方面，從汽車的角度來看，即將推出的車型，我們大大減少了這方面的誘因。

From a crossover standpoint, we were disciplined as well.

從跨界的角度來看，我們也遵守紀律。

So overall, I would say positive carryover in net price.

總的來說，我想說淨價的結轉為正。

That's going to be quarter-to-quarter, John.

這將是按季度進行的，約翰。

It's going to vary based on seasonality and so on and so forth, but it's our intent to stay disciplined.

它會根據季節性等因素而有所不同，但我們的目的是保持紀律。

And as you can see in the quarter, with the net majors that I just talked about, we have grown share for both light-duties as well as heavy-duties.

正如您在本季度所看到的，透過我剛才談到的網路專業，我們在輕型和重型方面的份額都有所增長。

We plan on continuing on that path of being disciplined.

我們計劃繼續走這條受到紀律約束的道路。

And Dhivya, in the competitive environment, have you seen any deterioration there?

Dhivya，在競爭環境中，你看到那裡有任何惡化嗎？

I mean I understand you guys are pretty disciplined, but I mean are you seeing sort of any kind of warning signs out there?

我的意思是，我知道你們非常自律，但我的意思是，你們是否看到了任何類型的警訊？

I think there's definitely months where you see some competitive activity and then it normalizes and so on, but we're launching.

我認為肯定有幾個月你會看到一些競爭活動，然後它就會正常化等等，但我們正在啟動。

We're going with our cadence, and we're -- the strength of the product that we've put out is driving our market share gains this time.

我們正在按照我們的步調前進，我們推出的產品的優勢正在推動我們這次市場份額的成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli。

Just a first question with inventory now being leaner, can you talk about opportunities you might have in Q4 and beyond to optimize for mix and pricing?

第一個問題是，現在庫存變得更加精簡，您能談談在第四季度及以後可能有的優化組合和定價的機會嗎？

Should we expect trim mix to get richer over the next several months as you try to kind of manage your inventory situation?

當您嘗試管理庫存狀況時，我們是否應該期望裝飾組合在接下來的幾個月內變得更加豐富？

We're going to try and build everything that we can get, Itay.

我們將嘗試建立我們能得到的一切，Itay。

From a mix perspective, we will continue down the path of rolling out the richer mix from an HD standpoint.

從混音的角度來看，我們將繼續從高清的角度推出更豐富的混音。

LD as well, we will try and maximize the trim mixes that are most profitable as we go forward.

LD 同樣，我們將在前進的過程中嘗試最大化最有利可圖的裝飾組合。

So we're going to be opportunistic as we go along.

因此，我們在前進的過程中將保持機會主義。

And the other aspect is, obviously, from a country mix standpoint, there's places where we -- that are more profitable and there's places that are less profitable, and we're going to direct the amount of inventory that we have towards the more profitable places as well.

另一方面，顯然，從國家組合的角度來看，有些地方利潤更高，有些地方利潤較低，我們將把我們擁有的庫存量轉向利潤更高的地方。

So we will be opportunistic.

所以我們會投機取巧。

It's hard to obviously size that at this time and we will provide more detail in Q4.

目前很難明確確定其規模，我們將在第四季提供更多細節。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then -- and just secondly, Dhivya, on the 2020 puts and takes, I think you mentioned lower industry volume as a headwind.

然後 - 其次，Dhivya，關於 2020 年的看跌期權和看跌期權，我認為您提到行業成交量下降是一種逆風。

Can you give a little more detail about what you're thinking of regionally and globally?

您能否更詳細地介紹一下您在區域和全球範圍內的想法？

Does that include the truck franchise because pickup truck industry sales has still been obviously strong throughout 2019?

這是否包括卡車特許經營權，因為皮卡車行業的銷售在整個 2019 年仍然明顯強勁？

Any additional color will be helpful there.

任何額外的顏色都會有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

I think we still have another couple of months here to go to see what happens here.

我想我們還有幾個月的時間來看看這裡發生了什麼事。

But in 2020, we do think that China will remain volatile.

但到2020年，我們確實認為中國將繼續動盪。

South America will remain volatile.

南美洲將繼續動盪。

And here in the United States, with the economic growth moderating here in the recent past and the next year or so, we're anticipating, we're still planning for a lower industry, still healthy industry, but a lower industry in 2020.

在美國，隨著最近和未來一年左右的經濟成長放緩，我們預計，我們仍在規劃一個較低的行業，仍然是健康的行業，但在 2020 年將是一個較低的行業。

And we're going to have to -- as we move forward here in the next few months before we give guidance, we'll put more specificity around that.

當我們在接下來的幾個月向前邁進時，在提供指導之前，我們將不得不更加具體地說明這一點。

But any more than that, it's too early to tell.

但除此之外，現在下結論還為時過早。

Great.

偉大的。

Then just lastly on Cruise, I think back in July, Cruise mentioned that they would accelerate testing and validation in the balance of 2019.

最後關於 Cruise，我記得在 7 月份，Cruise 就提到他們將在 2019 年剩餘時間加速測試和驗證。

Any update there that you can share in terms of miles driven or the overall activity that Cruise is undergoing in the second half?

您可以分享一下下半年 Cruise 的行駛里程或整體活動方面的最新情況嗎？

I would say -- I'm not going to give you a specific mileage, but they are doing exactly what they indicated they would do in the summer time frame.

我想說——我不會給你一個具體的里程，但他們正在做他們表示在夏季時間範圍內會做的事情。

I would say it's going really well as they meet their milestones and as they continue to develop the autonomous technology.

我想說，隨著他們達到里程碑並繼續開發自主技術，進展非常順利。

So very much on track.

所以一切都步入正軌了。

And not only on the technology, but also the work that they're doing in San Francisco in the community to make sure that the consumer is ready, understands the technology and trusts the technology.

不僅是技術，還有他們在舊金山社區所做的工作，以確保消費者做好準備、了解技術並信任技術。

So both of those plans are perfectly on track.

所以這兩個計劃都完全步入正軌。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Mary, over the next 5 years, will GM spend more R&D and CapEx dollars on EVs or internal combustion vehicles?

瑪麗，未來 5 年，通用汽車會在電動車還是內燃機汽車上投入更多研發和資本支出嗎？

I believe it will be EVs.

我相信這將是電動車。

And do you think that -- do EVs require less labor than internal combustion vehicles, all else equal?

您是否認為，在其他條件相同的情況下，電動車比內燃機汽車需要更少的勞動力？

I mean I think you have to look at the entire vehicle.

我的意思是我認為你必須看看整輛車。

Clearly, from an electrification perspective, it's simpler, from a component perspective, than it is from an internal combustion engine.

顯然，從電氣化的角度來看，從組件的角度來看，它比內燃機更簡單。

But one of the key things that we've done is worked on light-weighting because light-weighting is so important across every component.

但我們所做的關鍵事情之一是輕量化，因為輕量化對於每個組件都非常重要。

And from a body structures perspective, that light-weighting generally requires a little bit more labor.

從身體結構的角度來看，輕量化通常需要更多的勞動力。

So overall, I think it's somewhat less, but I think you've got to look at the whole vehicle, not just the propulsion system.

所以總的來說，我認為它有點少，但我認為你必須看看整個車輛，而不僅僅是推進系統。

And just I wanted to have a couple of questions on Corvette.

我只是想問幾個關於克爾維特的問題。

And I know Mark's not on the call here so maybe we can follow up with him.

我知道馬克不在這裡，所以也許我們可以和他聯絡。

But Mary, what do you think of a Corvette SUV?

但瑪麗，你覺得柯爾維特 SUV 怎麼樣？

Well, I appreciate that you think our Corvette franchise is very strong.

嗯，我很高興您認為我們的克爾維特特許經營權非常強大。

I'm not going to talk about future.

我不會談論未來。

I can't wait for the world to be able to drive the C8 because it's an outstanding vehicle and the value -- the performance is, I think, just sets a new bar.

我迫不及待地想讓全世界都能夠駕駛 C8，因為它是一款出色的車輛，而且它的價值——我認為，它的性能樹立了一個新的標準。

And then the affordability, I think, is something we're really proud of and is very true to the Chevrolet brand.

我認為，價格實惠是我們真正引以為傲的，也是雪佛蘭品牌的特色。

So I will just share with you, we look at a variety of things as we move forward but we recognize the strength of the Corvette brand.

因此，我將與您分享，我們在前進的過程中會考慮各種各樣的事情，但我們認識到克爾維特品牌的實力。

Right now, we're focused on getting the C8 out and then the other variants, including the convertible.

目前，我們的重點是推出 C8，然後是其他車型，包括敞篷車。

So very excited about that product and what it will do for the company.

我對該產品及其為公司帶來的影響感到非常興奮。

Okay, Mary.

好吧，瑪麗。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

But I won't ask about electric Corvette either right now.

但我現在也不會問電動克爾維特。

We can save that for later.

我們可以把它留到以後再做。

Finally then, just you mentioned on China, I think when you were talking about 2020, you expected China to be a headwind.

最後，剛才你提到中國，我想當你在談論2020年時，你預期中國會會變成逆風。

Can you elaborate a little bit more there on what was the market, what was the volume assumption or mix or price assumption within that?

您能否詳細說明市場是什麼，其中的數量假設或組合或價格假設是什麼？

Any other color on the China headwind comment, if I got that correctly, for 2020 versus 2019?

如果我沒猜錯的話，2020 年與 2019 年的中國逆風評論還有其他顏色嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Adam, I think it's a little early to call it.

亞當，我認為現在說這個還為時過早。

I mean there's so much going on right now as you look at the volatility in China.

我的意思是，當你看看中國的波動時，現在發生了很多事情。

Look at where -- we're still in the middle of really trying to understand where the trade talks are going to land and how that's going to impact the overall economy.

看看哪裡——我們仍然在真正嘗試了解貿易談判將在哪裡進行以及這將如何影響整體經濟。

So we are seeing a very volatile environment and we're also seeing a lot of pricing pressures.

因此，我們看到了一個非常不穩定的環境，我們也看到了很大的定價壓力。

And then as we look forward as we roll out more EVs, initially, we're going to see some margin headwind there.

然後，當我們展望推出更多電動車時，最初，我們將看到一些利潤逆風。

So I think when you look at all those things in '20, we'll have more color for that as we do the February earnings call for Q4, but those are the things that we're seeing right now that we think will carry into 2020.

因此，我認為，當你看到20 年的所有這些事情時，我們會在2 月份第四季的財報電話會議上看到更多的色彩，但這些是我們現在看到的，我們認為這些事情將會延續到20 年。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Could you provide an update in terms of the impact of the new labor accord on your downturn resiliency in North America?

您能否提供有關新勞工協議對北美經濟衰退彈性的影響的最新資訊？

Can you remind us of your latest estimate of North America breakeven expressed in terms of U.S. light-vehicle SAAR and whether the contract changes that breakeven level?

您能否提醒我們以美國輕型汽車 SAAR 表示的對北美盈虧平衡點的最新估計以及該合約是否會改變該盈虧平衡水平？

Yes.

是的。

Ryan, what we had previously talked about is the breakeven level of 10 million to 11 million units for the U.S. This contract will not change that.

Ryan，我們之前談到的是美國1000萬到1100萬台的盈虧平衡水平，這份合約不會改變這一點。

And how -- why that is, is basically the comment that Mary made about productivity and other efficiencies offsetting the economics of the contract will certainly play into that.

瑪麗關於生產力和其他效率抵消合約經濟性的評論基本上會發揮作用。

And in addition to that, from a flexibility standpoint, what we have modeled in our downturn assumptions is the ability to adjust the level of workforce based on what's happening in the industry and certain levels of supplemental unemployment benefits that go with that.

除此之外，從靈活性的角度來看，我們在經濟低迷假設中建模的是根據行業情況以及隨之而來的一定水平的補充失業救濟金來調整勞動力水平的能力。

And that does not change based on this contract, which is primarily the driver of maintaining the downturn assumptions the way they are.

這不會因為這份合約而改變，這主要是維持經濟低迷假設的驅動力。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And I was encouraged in the release that you attributed the softer than industry sales in China to demand -- to lower demand for your outgoing products.

令我感到鼓舞的是，你們將中國的銷售低於行業的原因歸因於需求——對你們即將推出的產品的需求下降。

Could you please provide us an update on the incoming product in China?

您能否向我們提供有關中國即將推出的產品的最新資訊？

Earlier in the year, you were relatively optimistic about the sales and profit potential from new launches, including the first of, I think, the so-called GEM architecture.

今年早些時候，您對新產品的銷售和利潤潛力相對樂觀，我認為包括第一個所謂的創業板架構。

Can you talk about how the sales and cost of the launch vehicles has trended relative to your expectation in China?

您能否談談運載火箭的銷售和成本相對於您在中國的預期的趨勢如何？

And then finally, it would be great, too, if you could update us with regards to the extent to which you have or have not detected any perceived bias against U.S.-based brands in the aftermath of trade or other tensions in that market.

最後，如果您能向我們介紹您在貿易或市場其他緊張局勢之後是否發現對美國品牌有任何明顯偏見的最新情況，那就太好了。

Sure, sure.

當然，當然。

And Ryan, first off, we haven't really seen -- and we monitor on a weekly basis, we really haven't seen any negative sentiment, so we think that's very positive.

瑞安，首先，我們還沒有真正看到 - 我們每週進行監控，我們確實沒有看到任何負面情緒，所以我們認為這是非常積極的。

And we are in the middle of the launches for the year.

我們正處於今年的發布中期。

We had 11 majors, including the Buick VELITE, which is a battery electric vehicle; the Buick Encore; Buick Encore GX; the Chevrolet Onix; the Chevrolet Trailblazer and Tracker; and then the Cadillac XT6 and then some Baojun products as well.

我們有11個主要產品，包括別克VELITE，這是一款純電動車；別克昂科拉；別克昂科拉GX；雪佛蘭奧尼克斯；雪佛蘭開拓者和追蹤者；然後是凱迪拉克XT6，然後還有一些寶駿產品。

And then there were several very important MCMs with -- across Buick for the LaCrosse and the Verano as well as the Chevrolet Monza and the Cadillac XT5.

然後還有幾個非常重要的 MCM，包括別克君越和 Verano，以及雪佛蘭 Monza 和凱迪拉克 XT5。

So I think as you look at all of those vehicles into a market with the uncertainty and the economic issues or the macro issues in China, I would say they're all on track.

因此，我認為，當您考慮進入充滿不確定性和中國經濟問題或宏觀問題的市場的所有這些工具時，我會說它們都已步入正​​軌。

You were correct to note that we did have our first of the Chevrolet Onix, which is the global family.

您正確地指出，我們確實擁有了第一輛雪佛蘭 Onix，它是全球家族。

It's one of many launches in China and it is on track.

這是在中國推出的眾多產品之一，而且正在按計劃進行。

However, we did mention in my remarks that it is doing exceptionally well in South America because it's at the heart of the market in the biggest segment.

然而，我們在發言中確實提到，它在南美洲的表現非常好，因為它位於最大細分市場的核心。

So I think we need to see these vehicles get into the marketplace, and I think a lot we'll see as we get into next year as well, but the launches are on track.

因此，我認為我們需要看到這些車輛進入市場，而且我認為明年我們也會看到很多，但發布已步入正軌。

I do think, though, as some of them as we -- we did see a more significant dropoff than we thought we would with the outgoing vehicle.

不過，我確實認為，正如我們中的一些人一樣，我們確實看到了比我們想像的即將淘汰的車輛更顯著的下降。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

This is Stephen Hunt on for Brian Johnson.

我是史蒂芬·亨特，替補布萊恩·約翰遜。

Just wanted to drill back down on the potential to recoup some of the lost production, particularly on the T1 pickup truck side into 2020.

只是想深入研究彌補部分生產損失的潛力，特別是到 2020 年 T1 皮卡車。

I guess assuming kind of an overall stable large pickup market into 2020, is it fair to say that GM is already running at max capacity and that from a production schedule standpoint tentatively as we think about 2020, there's really no potential to make up that lost production, especially if we get upside to the large pickup market?

我想，假設大型皮卡市場在 2020 年總體穩定，那麼可以公平地說，通用汽車已經在以最大產能運行，並且從我們考慮 2020 年的生產計劃的角度來看，確實沒有潛力彌補損失。特別是如果我們能夠進入大型皮卡市場？

Or is there any kind of scope for some weekend work as we think through 4Q and into 2020?

或者，我們認為從第四季到 2020 年，週末工作是否有任何範圍？

Yes.

是的。

I would say that your assumption is correct in an industry level and a truck penetration level that's similar to what we have today where we already have scheduled weekend time and a lot of other overtime on a regular basis.

我想說，您的假設在行業層面和卡車滲透水平方面是正確的，這與我們今天的情況相似，我們已經安排了周末時間和定期的許多其他加班。

We have these plants working max overtime.

我們讓這些工廠加班最多。

So the ability to add additional days is limited.

因此，增加額外天數的能力是有限的。

We will obviously try and find any voluntary opportunities to do overtime beyond that, but it's not something I would call my baseline at this point.

顯然，我們會嘗試尋找任何自願加班的機會，但這不是我目前所說的基線。

Understood.

明白了。

And then in terms of the revised UAW contract impact, we outside have got to about $150 million gross labor inflationary impact in 2020, ramping up to about $350 million in 2023.

然後，就修訂後的 UAW 合約影響而言，我們預計 2020 年勞動力通膨總影響約為 1.5 億美元，到 2023 年將增至約 3.5 億美元。

Just wondering if that's kind of ballpark correct.

只是想知道這是否正確。

And then also can you quantify the buckets of the dollar savings offsets from attrition buyouts, absenteeism and other productivity initiatives?

然後，您還可以量化因自然減員收購、缺勤和其他生產力措施而節省的美元成本嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

I think if we -- given I said more broadly is that we really believe the inflationary elements of the contract or the economics that we can offset with productivity and there's plans well established.

我認為，如果我們——考慮到我更廣泛地說，我們真的相信合約或經濟中的通貨膨脹因素，我們可以用生產力來抵消，並且已經制定了完善的計劃。

We don't know yet exactly how the special attrition program is going to play out.

我們還不知道特別減員計畫將如何實施。

People have till the end of the year to sign up for that.

人們必須在今年年底前註冊。

So I think what you hear from us, though, is a team that is committed to finding the right offsets to go for and maintain and improve our competitiveness.

因此，我認為您從我們這裡聽到的是一個致力於尋找正確的補償來追求、保持和提高我們的競爭力的團隊。

Okay.

好的。

Just in terms of the gross inflationary labor cost impact, was that -- is that ballpark directionally correct in terms of $100 million in 2020 ramping up to $350 million in 2023?

就通貨膨脹勞動成本總影響而言，從 2020 年的 1 億美元到 2023 年的 3.5 億美元，這個大致方向是否正確？

Well, I mean, I think if you look at -- there's some parts of the contract that are easy to do the math on and -- but I think there's others that -- we'll look to see how it plays out.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為如果你看一下——合約的某些部分很容易計算——但我認為還有其他部分——我們會看看它是如何發揮作用的。

And some of it depends on the workforce, depends on how many people take the special attrition program, depends on the industry as we go forward.

其中一些取決於勞動力，取決於有多少人參加特殊減員計劃，取決於我們前進的行業。

So I'm not going to put projections that far out.

所以我不會做出那麼遙遠的預測。

Okay.

好的。

And then just last clarifying question.

然後是最後一個澄清問題。

In terms of the revised transformational restructuring savings of $4 billion to $4.5 billion, does that include the productivity initiatives you outlined?

就修訂後的 40 億至 45 億美元轉型重組節省而言，這是否包括您概述的生產力舉措？

Or would that potentially provide some upside to get back to the original target of $4.5 billion?

或者這可能為回到 45 億美元的最初目標提供一些好處？

I think, first, we're going to work to offset and then we're going to keep going.

我認為，首先，我們將努力抵消，然後我們將繼續前進。

We won't stop when we get there.

當我們到達那裡時我們不會停下來。

So I think over time there's upside, especially on the broader elements we've talk about, how we continue to improve, how we design vehicles that affects the manufacturing costs and our ability to continue to build quality and station and improve our quality systems.

因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，這是有好處的，特別是在我們討論的更廣泛的元素上，我們如何繼續改進，我們如何設計影響製造成本的車輛，以及我們繼續建立品質、建立和改進品質體系的能力。

So all of those things are going to contribute.

所以所有這些事情都會有所貢獻。

And although we revised it based on the decision we made largely related to Detroit-Hamtramck, we're going to continue to push the organization to continue to find cost opportunities.

儘管我們根據與底特律-哈姆特拉克有關的決定對其進行了修改，但我們將繼續推動該組織繼續尋找成本機會。

And I would say that's the goal we set for the end of 2020.

我想說這就是我們為 2020 年底設定的目標。

It's not like after that we stop.

在那之後我們並沒有停下來。

At that point, we'll evaluate the business and look for the next round of cost savings that we can drive into the business and commit to from an improving shareholder value perspective.

屆時，我們將評估業務並尋找下一輪可以推動業務的成本節約，並從提高股東價值的角度致力於實現這一目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Dan Levy。

Just wanted to follow up on the question on the productivity gains.

只是想跟進有關生產力提高的問題。

Could you just give us some color on what initiatives you might be able to pursue or timing?

您能否告訴我們您可以採取哪些措施或時間安排？

And more specifically, you've obviously been pretty successful with cost saves in the past.

更具體地說，您過去在節省成本方面顯然非常成功。

I think that's probably one of the reasons why your earnings level has been rather elevated.

我認為這可能是你的收入水平相當高的原因之一。

Just wondering how much the low-hanging fruit may already be exhausted and you're just going to have to dig in a little harder and it's not going to be as easy to find some of these gains.

只是想知道有多少唾手可得的成果可能已經用盡了，你只需要更加努力地挖掘，並且找到其中一些收益並不那麼容易。

Well, I think when we look at our comparison that Harbour, or I guess, if Oliver Wyman now does from productivity, we still have opportunities to improve.

好吧，我認為，當我們看一下與 Harbour 的比較時，或者我猜，如果奧緯諮詢現在從生產力角度來看，我們仍然有機會改進。

And it's not just on minutes per hour of -- and the way we design a job, it's much broader than that.

這不僅僅是每小時的分鐘數——以及我們設計工作的方式，它的範圍比這要廣泛得多。

And I think we have a lot of opportunities to still tap into as we really optimize our complexity and we leverage reuse.

我認為，當我們真正優化複雜性並利用重複使用​​時，我們仍然有很多機會可以利用。

And so those are things that I'm very pleased that the organization has taken to a new level this year, and that will play out over multiple years because a lot of it is if you design the vehicle for design, for manufacturability, doing that now will play out in years when we actually launch the vehicles, be it 2, 3, 4 years from now.

因此，我很高興該組織今年達到了一個新的水平，這將在多年內發揮作用，因為很多事情都是為了設計、為了可製造性而設計車輛，這樣做現在，當我們真正推出車輛時，無論是2 年、3 年還是4 年之後，這一點都會發揮作用。

And don't underestimate the work that we've been doing on built-in quality level 4 because for the plants that are already there, we definitely see -- just the fact that more vehicles are built in station means they spend no time in repair and that's savings as well.

並且不要低估我們在內建品質等級 4 方面所做的工作，因為對於已經存在的工廠，我們肯定會看到 - 事實上，更多的車輛是在車站建造的，這意味著它們不會花時間在維修，這也是節省的。

So I believe, although I'm very proud of the manufacturing team of what they've already accomplished and working across with the engineering organization, I think there's still much more to tap into and that's what we do.

因此，我相信，儘管我對製造團隊已經取得的成就以及與工程組織的合作感到非常自豪，但我認為還有很多東西可以利用，這就是我們所做的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just as a second question, one that's more existential and sort of touching on one of the prior questions.

然後，作為第二個問題，一個更存在主義的問題，有點觸及之前的問題之一。

Obviously, one of your publicly stated goals is a 0 emissions future and that probably requires a smaller footprint than what you have in place today.

顯然，您公開聲明的目標之一是實現零排放的未來，這可能需要比您今天擁有的更小的足跡。

So first of all, does -- a, does this current agreement have any limitations on -- specifying limitations on what you can build for EVs?

首先，目前的協議是否有任何限制，具體說明您可以為電動車建造什麼？

And then just more broadly, with your 0 emissions future goal, how aligned is your labor partner with you on this goal?

更廣泛地說，對於您未來的零排放目標，您的勞動夥伴與您在這目標上的一致性如何？

Would they ever serve as partners with you along this transition, sort of similar to what we see in Europe and Germany, to addressing the future?

在這個過渡過程中，他們會成為你的合作夥伴嗎？

Or is the answer simply, look, this is a 4-year agreement.

或者答案很簡單，看，這是一個為期四年的協議。

And once it expires, then we'll deal with the future as it comes?

一旦它到期，我們就可以應對未來的到來嗎？

Well, I think in this 4-year agreement, we are dealing with the future.

嗯，我認為在這份為期四年的協議中，我們正在應對未來。

If you look at from an EV perspective, we already built the Chevrolet Bolt EV in our Orion plant in Michigan.

如果從電動車的角度來看，我們已經在密西根州的 Orion 工廠生產了雪佛蘭 Bolt EV。

Very significant discussions that we had as it relates to the battery electric truck with our -- the UAW as it relates to what we're going to do with Detroit-Hamtramck.

我們與 UAW 進行了非常重要的討論，因為它涉及電池電動卡車，因為它涉及我們將在底特律-哈姆特拉克 (Detroit-Hamtramck) 所做的事情。

So I think what we're trying to do is -- and first of all, there is no limitations.

所以我認為我們正在努力做的是——首先，沒有限制。

I want to make that very, very clear.

我想非常非常清楚地說明這一點。

But we are committed to the United States and committed to manufacture in the United States.

但我們致力於美國，致力於在美國製造。

We see a huge opportunity in electrification, and that's why we're investing and I think among the leaders in the EV space, I think we -- our technology road maps that we have for cell development are going to well position us and with the commitments we've made for the better -- our next-generation or architecture, which we call the BEV3.

我們看到了電氣化領域的巨大機遇，這就是我們投資的原因，我認為在電動車領域的領導者中，我認為我們的電池開發技術路線圖將為我們做好定位，並與我們為變得更好而做出的承諾－我們的下一代或架構，我們稱之為BEV3。

So this was all part of the discussions and I think it signifies what we're doing in Orion and what we'll be doing in Detroit-Hamtramck.

所以這都是討論的一部分，我認為這代表了我們在 Orion 所做的事情以及我們將在 Detroit-Hamtramck 做的事情。

I guess more specifically, you have other engine and transmission plants out there that presumably in an EV world are deemed unnecessary.

更具體地說，我想還有其他引擎和變速箱工廠，在電動車世界中可能被認為是不必要的。

Have there been any sort of discussions with the union in the future on how to deal with these plants that could potentially be unnecessary?

未來是否與工會就如何處理這些可能不必要的工廠進行過任何形式的討論？

Yes.

是的。

I think that's over a very long horizon.

我認為這是一個很長的時期。

We still see -- even when you look at the multitude of projections by 2030, is it 15%, is it 30% all EV, that means the balance of the vehicles being sold in the country are internal combustion engine vehicles.

我們仍然看到，即使你看一下到 2030 年的眾多預測，電動車的比例是 15% 還是 30%，這意味著該國銷售的車輛的其餘部分是內燃機汽車。

We're well positioned because we've renewed all those architectures and we've invested in very efficient internal combustion engine technology that will continue to improve.

我們處於有利位置，因為我們更新了所有這些架構，並且投資了非常高效的內燃機技術，並將繼續改進。

So I think this is going to play out over a number of years.

所以我認為這將持續數年。

And there are components in the drive units from an EV perspective that need to be built somewhere.

從電動車的角度來看，驅動單元中的某些組件需要在某個地方建造。

So I think we're looking to do the right thing from a company perspective to drive shareholder value to lead in EVs and do the right thing for our manufacturing footprint and for our employees.

因此，我認為我們希望從公司的角度做正確的事情，以推動股東價值，從而在電動車領域處於領先地位，並為我們的製造足跡和我們的員工做正確的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner)。

I was hoping you can provide a little bit more color on your underlying performance this year, excluding the strike to the extent that's possible.

我希望你能對今年的基本表現提供更多的信息，盡可能排除罷工。

Your -- the revised guidance and then you add back sort of the strike impact seems to be $6.50 to $6.80, maybe the lower end of sort of like original guidance.

修訂後的指導，然後加上罷工影響，似乎是 6.50 美元到 6.80 美元，可能是原始指導的下限。

Is there anything -- are there any like specific factors that you see that are playing out maybe on the softer end of what you would have expected before?

您認為有什麼類似的具體因素正在發揮作用，這些因素可能會比您之前預期的更溫和嗎？

I mean again, excluding strike, is it at the international level?

我再說一遍，不包括罷工，是國際層面的嗎？

Is it in China?

是在中國嗎？

Is there anything you're seeing in the U.S. that would account for that?

你在美國看到的有什麼可以解釋這一點嗎？

And as part of that question, also just trying to understand better the tax rate impact.

作為這個問題的一部分，我也只是想更了解稅率的影響。

The new guidance is at the lower tax rate.

新的指導方針是降低稅率。

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So a number of questions there, so let me address them one by one.

那麼問題有很多，讓我一一解答。

The new guidance, $4.50 to $4.80, you're correct, we subtracted the $2 and arrived at -- so it's the original guidance we gave in January less $2.

新的指導意見是 4.50 美元到 4.80 美元，你是對的，我們減去了 2 美元，得出了——所以這是我們 1 月份給出的原始指導意見，減去了 2 美元。

On the upper end, we clipped it by $0.20.

在上限方面，我們將其削減了 0.20 美元。

As you've seen, we've -- it's been quite a volatile environment in China as well as the macroeconomic volatility we're seeing in South America as well the FX environment that we saw earlier in the year when we gave our guidance is very different from the FX picture that we have today, which is offsetting some of that as well.

正如您所看到的，中國的環境相當不穩定，南美的宏觀經濟也出現波動，今年早些時候我們給出指導時看到的外匯環境也是如此與我們今天看到的外匯形勢非常不同，這也抵消了其中的一些影響。

So I would say that the weakness is predominantly more in the international front, the volatility that we're seeing.

所以我想說，疲軟主要體現在國際方面，也就是我們所看到的波動。

And from a North America perspective, as you've seen the performance quarter after quarter, it continues to be strong.

從北美的角度來看，正如您所看到的一個又一個季度的表現一樣，它仍然保持強勁。

From a -- just from a tax rate perspective, the revised tax rate is primarily because the strike impact is you've got to apply the U.S. tax rate to that strike impact, which is about 25% effective tax rate that we're applying there.

從稅率的角度來看，修訂後的稅率主要是因為罷工影響是你必須將美國稅率應用於罷工影響，也就是我們正在應用的約 25% 的有效稅率那裡。

So if you take our original tax guidance, subtract out the higher tax rate that's applicable on our strike impact, you get to your new and revised tax guidance.

因此，如果您採用我們原來的稅務指導，減去適用於我們的罷工影響的較高稅率，您就會得到新的和修訂後的稅務指導。

So it's consistent.

所以它是一致的。

It's just that you're applying a different tax rate than the weighted average tax rate on the strike impact.

只是您對罷工影響所應用的稅率與加權平均稅率不同。

Okay.

好的。

That's great color.

那顏色真棒。

And then just was hoping you can give a little bit more color on the puts and takes for 2020 and in particular a few discrete items.

然後只是希望你能為 2020 年的看跌期權和看跌期權提供更多的色彩，特別是一些離散的項目。

You're talking about downtime and ramp-up for the full-size SUV.

您談論的是全尺寸 SUV 的停機時間和加速時間。

Anything you're able to quantify in terms of specifically downtime there?

您可以根據具體的停機時間來量化嗎？

And then you did not mention raw materials as a potential tailwind.

然後你沒有提到原料作為潛在的推動因素。

I was curious if you can give an update on what is represent this year and then how to think about it for next year?

我很好奇您能否介紹一下今年的最新情況，然後如何考慮明年的情況？

And then the third discrete item would be warranty.

第三個獨立項目是保固。

Obviously, a fairly big charge, which you explained for the quarter.

顯然，這是一筆相當大的費用，您在本季對此進行了解釋。

How -- does that have a carryover impact as we move into next year?

當我們進入明年時，這會產生什麼樣的延續影響？

So on the 2020 side, the puts and takes that I gave, predominantly, a lot of industry uncertainty around the globe, that's what I would characterize as a primary headwind.

因此，就 2020 年而言，我給出的看跌期權主要是全球範圍內的許多行業不確定性，這就是我所說的主要阻力。

From a downturn -- downtime standpoint, this is a complicated SUV -- full-sized SUV launch.

從經濟低迷——停機時間的角度來看，這是一款複雜的SUV——全尺寸SUV的發布。

There's a significant amount of change that's happening from the current generation to the next generation.

從當前一代到下一代正在發生巨大的變化。

So from a downtime perspective as well as more importantly, the line rate ramp-up post to downtime, we're anticipating an additional headwind year-over-year for full-size SUVs.

因此，從停機時間的角度來看，更重要的是，從停機時間後生產線速度的上升來看，我們預計全尺寸 SUV 將逐年面臨額外的阻力。

I don't want to quantify that now since we're still working on how we can optimize the number of units that we're going to be able to put out in 2020.

我現在不想量化這一點，因為我們仍在研究如何優化我們將在 2020 年推出的單位數量。

So I will quantify that further in February.

所以我將在二月進一步量化這一點。

But it is safe to assume that there will be a year-over-year headwind from a full-size SUV perspective.

但可以肯定的是，從全尺寸 SUV 的角度來看，全年將面臨逆風。

There will also be higher depreciation.

折舊率也會更高。

That's something I've been consistent with in the past several quarters as our depreciation catches up to our CapEx levels.

這是我在過去幾季中一直堅持的做法，因為我們的折舊趕上了我們的資本支出水準。

We've been seeing a secular increase every single year, and that's going to continue into 2020 as well.

我們每年都看到長期成長，這種情況也將持續到 2020 年。

And obviously, that's noncash as you all know.

顯然，眾所周知，這不是現金。

From a raw material and tariffs perspective, to your point, I've said this before in prior quarters, there's puts and takes.

從原料和關稅的角度來看，我在前幾個季度已經說過，有看跌期權和索取期權。

It's hard to look at just one number and paint it all with the same brush.

只看一個數字並用同一把畫筆繪製所有數字是很困難的。

But steel and aluminum, we've seen tailwinds offset by precious metals, tariffs as well as fuel costs, which impacts our logistics spend.

但在鋼鐵和鋁方面，我們看到貴金屬、關稅和燃料成本抵消了有利因素，這影響了我們的物流支出。

So net-net, we are still at $500 million year-over-year headwind from a 2019 standpoint.

因此，從 2019 年的角度來看，我們仍面臨 5 億美元的年比逆風。

We don't see that moderating necessarily into 2020 since the headwinds that I mentioned are likely to continue into 2020.

我們認為 2020 年這種情況不一定會放緩，因為我提到的不利因素可能會持續到 2020 年。

And it's obviously hard to predict the tariff environment that we're going to be in.

顯然很難預測我們將面臨的關稅環境。

So that's generally the headwind side.

所以通常是逆風的一面。

Tailwinds, the remaining cost savings so far, we've achieved close to $2.4 billion of cost savings, and the remaining cost savings are going to be realized over a period of time, according to our revised guidance.

Tailwinds，到目前為止剩餘的成本節約，我們已經實現了近 24 億美元的成本節約，並且根據我們修訂後的指導，剩餘的成本節約將在一段時間內實現。

You're going to have a full year of heavy-duty trucks and the product launches that I talked about.

一整年都會有重型卡車和我談到的產品發布。

Hopefully, that gives you some color.

希望這能給你一些色彩。

And finally, on the warranty question that you had, we do see that as specific to Q3 of this year.

最後，關於您提出的保固問題，我們確實認為這是今年第三季的具體問題。

I don't see a tail event into 2020 on that.

我認為 2020 年不會出現尾部事件。

Our last question comes from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

I just wanted to jump in on maybe the impact from a working capital standpoint on the change in the cash flow guide.

我只是想從營運資金的角度來談談現金流量指南變化的影響。

So just really quick, of the $5.5 billion, it looks like $2.8 billion was worse than just the operations.

很快，在 55 億美元中，看起來 28 億美元比營運本身更糟。

You back out the CapEx, it looks like it's something like a $3.5 billion or $4 billion drain on working capital.

如果取消資本支出，營運資金就會消耗 35 億美元或 40 億美元。

Can you just confirm that it was all working capital and there's not any other sort of onetime drivers for the cash outflow?

您能否確認這全部都是營運資金，並且沒有任何其他類型的一次性驅動因素導致現金流出？

Because we're trying to think about the reversal next year.

因為我們正在嘗試考慮明年的逆轉。

Yes.

是的。

I would say that your EBIT impact seems to be on the low end.

我想說的是，你們的息稅前利潤影響似乎處於低端。

Maybe you're talking about the net income impact.

也許您正在談論淨利潤的影響。

So from an EBIT perspective, that's all set up for -- yes, you've got to talk about a growth number there.

因此，從息稅前利潤的角度來看，這一切都是為了——是的，你必須談論那裡的成長數字。

That, plus the working capital unwind, constitutes most of the $5.5 billion.

這加上營運資金解約，構成了 55 億美元的大部分。

There's no other like onetime item or whatever else that's out there, but the profit impact that you talked about, that sounds a little understated but it's potentially because of tax rate.

沒有其他像一次性物品或其他任何東西一樣，但你談到的利潤影響，這聽起來有點輕描淡寫，但這可能是因為稅率。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then if we could talk about the -- without giving numbers, like when we think about the reversal, that's sometime in the first half, I know you don't want to give guidance, but could you just sort of walk through the timing of how that would play out from an inventory standpoint?

然後，如果我們可以在不給出數字的情況下討論，就像我們考慮逆轉時一樣，那是在上半場的某個時候，我知道你不想提供指導，但你能簡單介紹一下時間嗎從庫存的角度來看，這將如何發揮作用？

Are you talking about the reversal of working capital or the recovery of profit or both?

您是在談論營運資金的逆轉還是利潤的恢復或兩者兼而有之？

The reversal of working capital.

營運資金逆轉。

So reversal of working capital, we think that the low point is probably going to be sometime in November as we cycle through the rest of the unwind, and then payables and receivables will start back up 15 days after we start shipping.

因此，營運資金的逆轉，我們認為低點可能會在11 月的某個時候出現，因為我們會循環執行剩餘的平倉，然後應付帳款和應收帳款將在我們開始發貨15 天後開始回升。

That cadence will continue.

這種節奏將繼續下去。

So we do anticipate that you'll see part of the recovery in the second half of November and into December.

因此，我們確實預計您將在 11 月下半月和 12 月看到部分復甦。

And Q1, as you know, it tends to be a negative cash quarter because of our shutdown and the reversal after that.

如你所知，第一季往往是一個負現金季度，因為我們的關閉和此後的逆轉。

But what you would see from a cash balance standpoint is the recovery starting in the second quarter of next year into the rest of 2020.

但從現金餘額的角度來看，你會看到從明年第二季開始到 2020 年剩餘時間的復甦。

Okay.

好的。

That's perfect on the timing.

這在時機上是完美的。

And then, Dhivya, this is more like from a communications standpoint.

然後，Dhivya，這更像是從溝通的角度來看。

I mean 2020 was already supposed to be sort of a better free cash flow year.

我的意思是，2020 年本來應該是自由現金流更好的一年。

I think we've asked that question a couple of different times on the call.

我想我們在電話會議上已經問過這個問題了。

But you're already getting the improvement of CapEx, the reduction of pension from cash flow, the income statement and then the FinCo dividend.

但你已經得到了資本支出的改善、現金流退休金的減少、損益表以及金融公司股利。

If we get this working capital benefit in 2020, is it the type of thing that you will actually be able to call out so that we can start to understand what is the true?

如果我們在 2020 年獲得這種營運資本收益，您是否真的可以大聲疾呼，以便我們開始了解真相？

Because working capital wasn't one of the benefits that we were expecting in 2020 and 2021, which likely will now be sort of in core operations.

因為營運資本並不是我們預期在 2020 年和 2021 年帶來的好處之一，而現在這可能會出現在核心營運中。

So is that something that you could back out for the Street as we go into 2020 and 2021?

那麼，當我們進入 2020 年和 2021 年時，您是否可以支持華爾街的做法？

We will be very clear about how much of our 2020 free cash flow guidance comes from the working capital rewind.

我們將非常清楚 2020 年自由現金流指引中有多少來自營運資本回溯。

And we will also be clear about how much is the cash-based earnings, i.e., the operating cash flow, if you will, and what that is year-over-year.

我們也將清楚基於現金的收益是多少，即經營現金流（如果你願意的話），以及與去年同期相比是多少。

So from a communications standpoint, we'll certainly be clear about that.

因此，從溝通的角度來看，我們肯定會清楚這一點。

And beyond that, you're right, we don't want to talk much more about magnitude of that until February.

除此之外，你是對的，我們不想在二月之前過多談論其嚴重程度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉（Mary Barra），請她發表結束語。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And thanks, everybody, for participating this morning.

感謝大家今天早上的參與。

If you look for several years, the team at General Motors has been making tough decisions to make our business more resilient and more agile.

如果你觀察幾年，通用汽車的團隊一直在做出艱難的決定，以使我們的業務更具彈性和敏捷性。

This discipline will help us overcome the impact of the strike as we continue launching our heavy-duty trucks, the new Cadillac sedan, and as we move forward the upcoming launches such as the mid-engine Corvette and the next generation of full-size SUVs.

這項紀律將幫助我們克服罷工的影響，繼續推出重型卡車、新款凱迪拉克轎車，並推進即將推出的中置引擎克爾維特和下一代全尺寸 SUV 。

This leadership team has a proven track record of successfully navigating complex business issues, confronting headwinds and capitalizing on opportunities.

該領導團隊在成功解決複雜的業務問題、應對逆風和利用機會方面有著良好的記錄。

And I believe we have the best employees in the industry across the board.

我相信我們擁有業內最優秀的員工。

They want to work and they come to work every day to do their best, and they want General Motors to succeed and they want to be part of that successful future.

他們想要工作，他們每天都在工作中竭盡全力，他們希望通用汽車取得成功，他們希望成為這個成功未來的一部分。

So as we move forward together, we're going to continue to build on the strong foundation we've laid and share -- and allow them to share in the future success of the company.

因此，當我們共同前進時，我們將繼續在我們已經奠定和分享的堅實基礎上繼續發展，並讓他們分享公司未來的成功。

But let me be clear, we're also working hard to lead in both the core and the EV and AV world and create significant shareholder value.

但我要明確的是，我們也努力在核心以及電動車和自動駕駛領域保持領先地位，並創造顯著的股東價值。

And before I close, I want to let you know that we will host our Capital Markets Day in New York on February 5, 2020.

在結束之前，我想告訴大家，我們將於 2020 年 2 月 5 日在紐約舉辦資本市場日。

This year, in addition to providing our 2020 outlook, it will include our Q4 and our full year 2019 earnings results.

今年，除了提供 2020 年展望外，還將包括第四季度和 2019 年全年盈利結果。

And we'll share additional details about that Capital Markets Day in the near future.

我們將在不久的將來分享更多有關資本市場日的詳細資訊。

So thanks, everybody, very much.

非常感謝大家。

I appreciate your time.

我很感激你的時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。