通用汽車 (GM) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the General Motors Company Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加通用汽車 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, Wednesday, February 6, 2019.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議將於 2019 年 2 月 6 日星期三進行錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Rocky Gupta, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁洛基·古普塔 (Rocky Gupta)。

Thanks, Dorothy.

謝謝，多蘿西。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year 2018.

早安，感謝您加入我們，我們將回顧通用汽車 2018 年第四季和全年的財務表現。

Our press release was issued this morning, and the conference call materials are available on the GM Investor Relations website.

我們的新聞稿於今天上午發布，電話會議資料可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上取得。

We're also broadcasting this call via webcast.

我們也透過網路廣播來廣播這次電話會議。

I'm joined today by Mary Barra, GM's Chairman and CEO; Dhivya Suryadevara, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; and a number of other executives.

今天，通用汽車公司董事長兼執行長瑪麗巴拉 (Mary Barra) 也加入了我的行列。 Dhivya Suryadevara，通用汽車執行副總裁兼財務長；以及其他一些高階主管。

Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set.

在我們開始之前，我想請您注意圖表組第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。

The content of our call will be governed by this language.

我們通話的內容將受此語言管轄。

I will now turn the call over to Mary Barra.

我現在將把電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉。

Thanks, Rocky, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝洛基，大家早安。

Thanks for joining.

感謝您的加入。

We delivered very strong results in 2018 despite significant macro headwinds and in a year in which we transitioned to our light-duty pickup trucks.

儘管存在巨大的宏觀阻力，但我們在 2018 年仍取得了非常強勁的業績，並且在這一年我們轉向了輕型皮卡車。

Our North American performance was very strong as we launched all-new pickup trucks and crossovers; China results were strong despite our market environment; and GMF delivered record results.

我們在北美的表現非常強勁，推出了全新的皮卡和跨界車；儘管市場環境不佳，但中國業績仍強勁； GMF 取得了創紀錄的業績。

Let's get the full year 2018 numbers: Net revenue was $147 billion; EBIT-adjusted was $11.8 billion; EBIT-adjusted margin was 8%; our EPS diluted adjusted was $6.54; our automotive-adjusted free cash flow was $4.4 billion, and this excludes the $600 million in pension prefunding payments; and ROIC-adjusted was 24.9% on a trailing 4-quarter basis.

讓我們來看看 2018 年全年數據：淨收入為 1,470 億美元；調整後息稅前利潤為 118 億美元；息稅前利潤調整後利潤率為 8%；調整後稀釋後每股收益為 6.54 美元；我們的汽車調整後自由現金流為 44 億美元，其中不包括 6 億美元的退休金預付款；過去 4 季的投資報酬率調整後為 24.9%。

As we shared in January, we expect to improve 2019 earnings and cash flow as we move into the next phase of our transformation: leaner, more agile and better positioned to win.

正如我們在 1 月分享的那樣，隨著我們進入轉型的下一階段：更精簡、更敏捷、更有能力獲勝，我們預計將改善 2019 年的盈利和現金流。

Our favorable outlook is based on a continued robust mix of new products around the globe, continued cost efficiencies and our business transformation initiatives.

我們的良好前景是基於全球持續強勁的新產品組合、持續的成本效率和我們的業務轉型措施。

We believe there will continue to be macro uncertainties, but we expect to manage through them, based on current market conditions.

我們認為，宏觀不確定性仍將存在，但我們預期根據當前的市場狀況，能夠克服這些不確定性。

Let's look at our performance in North America, where we achieved a strong year, including record fourth quarter earnings.

讓我們看看我們在北美的表現，我們在北美取得了強勁的一年，包括創紀錄的第四季度收益。

In the U.S., we led the industry in pickup sales for the fifth straight year and delivered more than 1 million crossovers.

在美國，我們的皮卡銷量連續第五年領先產業，交付了超過 100 萬輛跨界車。

We will benefit from a full year of sales of our all-new light-duty pickups, and the cadence will continue with all-new heavy-duty models.

我們將受益於全新輕型皮卡的全年銷售，而全新重型皮卡的銷售節奏也將持續。

We revealed the Chevrolet Silverado heavy-duty yesterday in Flint, and it will go on sale later this year, along with the GMC Sierra heavy-duty.

我們昨天在弗林特發布了雪佛蘭 Silverado 重型車，該車將於今年稍後與 GMC Sierra 重型車一起上市。

We are encouraged by the early success of the newly launched Cadillac XT4 SUV, which already leads in its segment, and we'll also see a full year of sales of the new Chevrolet Blazer.

我們對新推出的凱迪拉克 XT4 SUV 的早期成功感到鼓舞，該車已經在其細分市場中處於領先地位，而且我們還將看到新款雪佛蘭 Blazer 的全年銷量。

I'd like to take a minute to update you on the business transformation actions we announced in November.

我想花一點時間向您介紹我們在 11 月宣布的業務轉型行動的最新情況。

We said we would align our product portfolio and capacity in North America with changing consumer preferences and transform the workforce to position the company for long-term success.

我們表示，我們將根據不斷變化的消費者偏好調整我們在北美的產品組合和產能，並對員工進行改造，以使公司長期成功。

To date, nearly 950 U.S. hourly employees have been placed in U.S. plants with products in key growth segments.

迄今為止，已有近 950 名美國小時工被安置在美國工廠，其產品屬於關鍵成長領域。

At GM Canada, we are supporting affected employees by working with local colleges on retraining as well as with dealers and more than 20 local employers who have expressed interest in hiring these experienced employees.

在通用汽車加拿大公司，我們與當地大學合作進行再培訓，並與經銷商和 20 多家表示有興趣僱用這些經驗豐富的員工的當地雇主合作，為受影響的員工提供支援。

And we will also provide outplacement services to the impacted salaried employees.

我們也將為受影響的受薪員工提供再就業服務。

Because of the strong business results we delivered last year, eligible hourly employees will share in this success through profit-sharing payments later this month.

由於我們去年取得了強勁的業績，符合條件的小時工將在本月晚些時候透過利潤分享付款來分享這一成功。

Moving to our international operations.

轉向我們的國際業務。

The actions we announced earlier last year have placed GM Korea on a path to enterprise-level profitability.

我們去年稍早宣布的行動使通用汽車韓國走上了企業級獲利之路。

However, despite improved share in Brazil, the South America business remains a concern because of continued macroeconomic pressures.

然而，儘管巴西的份額有所提高，但由於持續的宏觀經濟壓力，南美業務仍然令人擔憂。

We are having productive discussions with key stakeholders to generate acceptable returns in the market.

我們正在與主要利害關係人進行富有成效的討論，以在市場上產生可接受的回報。

In China, we earned $2 billion in equity income last year in an increasingly challenging business environment.

在中國，我們去年在日益充滿挑戰的商業環境中賺取了 20 億美元的股權收入。

While we expect macro issues and flat industry performance will impact our results this year, we remain confident in the long-term position in China.

雖然我們預期宏觀問題和產業表現不佳將影響我們今年的業績，但我們對中國的長期地位仍然充滿信心。

We expect China industry sales to be roughly in line with 2018 levels, based on expected GDP growth and our current assessment of market conditions.

根據預期 GDP 成長和我們目前對市場狀況的評估，我們預期中國工業銷售將大致與 2018 年水準一致。

Last week, the government announced actions to stimulate the economy and the industry, and we look forward to learning more about the details of these incentives.

上週，政府宣布了刺激經濟和產業的行動，我們期待更多地了解這些激勵措施的細節。

However, generally, such support has had a positive impact on the auto sector.

但總體而言，此類支持對汽車產業產生了積極影響。

Our aggressive product cadence continues this year in China with more than 20 new and refreshed models from our Buick, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Baojun and Wuling brands.

今年，我們在中國繼續保持積極的產品節奏，推出了別克、雪佛蘭、凱迪拉克、寶駿和五菱品牌的 20 多款全新和改款車型。

This includes 7 SUVs and the first of our all-new global family of vehicles.

其中包括 7 款 SUV 和我們全新全球汽車系列的第一款。

I also want to mention the momentum at Cadillac.

我還想提一下凱迪拉克的勢頭。

Last month, we announced that it will be GM's lead electric brand when we introduce our next-generation EV technology.

上個月，我們宣佈在推出下一代電動車技術時，它將成為通用汽車的領先電動品牌。

Through technology innovation and beautiful design, we are fully committed to restoring Cadillac to the luxury leader it should be.

透過技術創新和精美設計，我們完全致力於將凱迪拉克恢復到應有的豪華領導者地位。

Last year, Cadillac posted another record year of global sales, and we expect continued growth as we introduce a new model roughly every 6 months through 2021, including the XT6 SUV we unveiled last month.

去年，凱迪拉克的全球銷量再創歷史新高，我們預計將持續成長，直到 2021 年，我們大約每 6 個月推出一款新車型，其中包括我們上個月推出的 XT6 SUV。

Turning to our future mobility initiatives.

轉向我們未來的出行計劃。

We made real progress last year toward expanding our leadership in both autonomous and electric vehicles since first announcing our vision of a world with 0 crashes, 0 emissions and 0 congestion nearly 18 months ago.

自從近 18 個月前首次宣布零事故、零排放和零擁堵的世界願景以來，我們去年在擴大自動駕駛和電動車領域的領導地位方面取得了真正的進展。

GM Cruise is deeply resourced to succeed with more than 1,100 employees and $5 billion raised in external capital from SoftBank and Honda in 2018.

通用汽車 Cruise 擁有雄厚的資源，擁有 1,100 多名員工，並於 2018 年從軟銀和本田籌集了 50 億美元的外部資本。

We have demonstrated our willingness to work with partners with common values and where a partnership can improve efficiency, capital spend and speed of development.

我們已經表現出與具有共同價值觀的合作夥伴合作的意願，並且合作夥伴關係可以提高效率、資本支出和發展速度。

For example, our AV collaboration with Honda builds on our existing EV battery and fuel cell work.

例如，我們與本田的自動駕駛汽車合作建立在我們現有的電動車電池和燃料電池工作的基礎上。

On the EV front, to encourage greater consumer acceptance of battery electric vehicles, last month, we announced a collaboration with 3 partners to establish the largest collective EV charging network in the United States.

在電動車方面，為了鼓勵消費者更接受純電動車，上個月，我們宣布與 3 個合作夥伴合作，建立美國最大的集體電動車充電網路。

In addition, Cruise continues to focus on the entirety of the autonomous vehicle ecosystem, signing a partnership with DoorDash last month.

此外，Cruise 繼續專注於整個自動駕駛汽車生態系統，並在上個月與 DoorDash 簽署了合作夥伴關係。

So to recap, we had another year of strong earnings in a volatile environment.

回顧一下，我們在動盪的環境中又取得了強勁的獲利一年。

We offset macro headwinds with fresh products in the right segments by staying intensely focused on cost and by making the right business decisions throughout the year.

透過高度關注成本並全年做出正確的業務決策，我們在正確的細分市場中使用新產品來抵消宏觀阻力。

So now I'll turn the call over to Dhivya.

現在我將把電話轉給 Dhivya。

Thanks, Mary, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝瑪麗，大家早安。

We exceeded our expected 2018 results from both an EPS and adjusted automotive free cash flow perspective.

從每股盈餘和調整後的汽車自由現金流角度來看，我們的 2018 年業績超出了預期。

Our performance was driven by strong execution across all of our operating segments, including record fourth quarter results in North America and GM Financial.

我們的業績得益於所有營運部門的強勁執行力，包括北美和通用汽車金融部門創紀錄的第四季業績。

We were also able to accelerate the execution of our transformational cost savings and started to see early benefits of these actions in the fourth quarter.

我們也能夠加速執行轉型成本節約，並在第四季開始看到這些行動的早期效益。

With that, let's review the results in more detail.

接下來，讓我們更詳細地查看結果。

As Mary mentioned, we generated calendar year results of $147 billion in net revenue; $11.8 billion in EBIT-adjusted; 8% margins; $6.54 in EPS-diluted-adjusted; and $4.4 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow, excluding the impact of pension contribution.

正如 Mary 所提到的，我們的歷年淨收入為 1,470 億美元；調整後息稅前利潤為 118 億美元； 8% 的利潤率；稀釋調整後每股收益為 6.54 美元；調整後的汽車自由現金流為 44 億美元，不包括退休金繳款的影響。

In the fourth quarter, we generated $38.4 billion in net revenue; $2.8 billion in EBIT-adjusted; 7.4% EBIT-adjusted margins; $1.43 in EPS-diluted-adjusted; and $4.2 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow.

第四季度，我們實現了 384 億美元的淨收入；調整後息稅前利潤為 28 億美元；息稅前利潤調整後利潤率為 7.4%；稀釋調整後每股收益 1.43 美元；調整後的汽車自由現金流為 42 億美元。

Let's turn to North America.

讓我們把目光轉向北美。

In the calendar year, North America generated 9.5% EBIT-adjusted margins despite over $1 billion of commodity headwinds and downtime taken for full-size truck changeover.

儘管商品貿易面臨超過 10 億美元的不利因素以及全尺寸卡車更換造成的停機時間，北美地區的 EBIT 調整後利潤率在過去一年仍實現了 9.5%。

In Q4, North America delivered record EBIT-adjusted results of $3.0 billion and 10.2% margins, up 20 basis points year-over-year.

第四季度，北美地區的 EBIT 調整後業績達到創紀錄的 30 億美元，利潤率為 10.2%，年增 20 個基點。

Performance of our all-new light-duty pickup and strong material cost performance in the quarter more than offset commodity headwinds and the volume impact from downtime.

本季我們全新輕量皮卡的表現和強勁的材料成本效益足以抵銷大宗商品的不利因素和停工對銷售的影響。

The full-size pickup truck launch has been very strong.

全尺寸皮卡車的推出非常強勁。

We have experienced a smooth ramp-up of the new models as well as sell-down of the old models.

我們經歷了新車型的平穩上市以及舊車型的銷售下降。

We produced over 75,000 all-new trucks in Q4, consisting primarily of highly profitable crew cabs.

第四季度，我們生產了超過 75,000 輛全新卡車，其中主要是利潤豐厚的雙排座駕駛室。

This contributed favorably to volume, mix and price during the quarter.

這對本季的銷售、產品組合和價格做出了有利的貢獻。

Let's move to GM International.

讓我們轉向通用汽車國際公司。

Full year EBIT-adjusted in GMI was down $900 million year-over-year, primarily driven by FX headwinds in South America.

GMI 全年經調整後的息稅前利潤年減 9 億美元，這主要是受到南美洲外匯不利因素的推動。

For the fourth quarter, EBIT-adjusted in GMI was down $500 million year-over-year due to South American headwinds as well as lower equity income in China.

第四季度，由於南美洲逆風以及中國股權收入下降，GMI 經調整後的息稅前利潤較去年同期下降 5 億美元。

We still delivered a strong full year equity income of $2 billion in China, driven by our market position, cost performance and a richer mix of Cadillac.

在我們的市場地位、成本效益和更豐富的凱迪拉克產品組合的推動下，我們在中國全年仍實現了 20 億美元的強勁股本收入。

Equity income for the quarter was $300 million, down year-over-year as a result of the industry slowdown, continued pricing pressure and partially offset by cost efficiencies and Cadillac growth.

由於行業放緩、持續的定價壓力，本季的股權收入為 3 億美元，年減，但部分被成本效率和凱迪拉克成長所抵消。

Important to note that there were some factors specific to Q4, including lower production levels and elevated launch costs that impacted the results for the quarter by $100 million.

值得注意的是，第四季度存在一些特定因素，包括生產水準下降和發射成本上升，這些因素對該季度的業績造成了 1 億美元的影響。

A few comments on GM Financial, Cruise and our Corp segment.

關於通用汽車金融、郵輪和我們的公司部門的一些評論。

GM Financial posted all-time record revenue of $14 billion for the year, an all-time record EBT-adjusted of $1.9 billion.

通用汽車金融公司 (GM Financial) 公佈的全年營收達到創紀錄的 140 億美元，其中經稅前利潤調整後的營收達到創紀錄的 19 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, GM Financial generated revenue of $3.6 billion, an EBT-adjusted of $400 million, both records for the fourth quarter.

通用汽車金融公司第四季營收為 36 億美元，扣除稅前利潤 (EBT) 調整後為 4 億美元，均創第四季新高。

In October, GM Financial paid a dividend of $375 million.

10月份，通用汽車金融公司支付了3.75億美元的股息。

As I mentioned last month, continued dividends from GM Financial provides an opportunity to strengthen our long-term cash generation capability and narrow the gap between earnings and free cash flow.

正如我上個月提到的，通用汽車金融公司的持續股息提供了增強我們長期現金產生能力並縮小獲利與自由現金流之間差距的機會。

Cruise costs were $700 million for the year and $200 million for Q4.

全年郵輪成本為 7 億美元，第四季為 2 億美元。

We expect to spend approximately $1 billion in the GM Cruise segment in 2019.

我們預計 2019 年將在通用汽車郵輪業務上花費約 10 億美元。

Corp segment costs for the full year were $600 million, including approximately $250 million combined favorable impact from PSA warrants and revaluation of our Lyft investment.

全年公司部門成本為 6 億美元，其中包括 PSA 認股權證和 Lyft 投資重估帶來的約 2.5 億美元的綜合有利影響。

We expect the spend in the Corp segment to be about $1 billion in 2019.

我們預計 2019 年企業部門的支出約為 10 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, Corp sector costs were impacted by unfavorable performance in PSA warrants and were $400 million negative for the quarter.

第四季度，企業部門成本受到 PSA 認股權證表現不佳的影響，該季度出現 4 億美元的負值。

Before I close, I wanted to reiterate our outlook for the calendar year.

在結束之前，我想重申我們對今年的展望。

As I mentioned last month, we expect strong EPS-diluted-adjusted in the range of $6.50 to $7, and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the range of $4.5 billion to $6 billion.

正如我上個月提到的，我們預計稀釋後調整後每股收益將在 6.50 美元至 7 美元之間，調整後的汽車自由現金流將在 45 億美元至 60 億美元之間。

Touching on the headwinds, we will take downtime to the tune of 25,000 units as we prepare for the launch of our all-new full-size SUVs.

談到逆風，我們將停產 25,000 輛汽車，準備推出全新全尺寸 SUV。

We expect China equity income to be down moderately year-over-year.

我們預計中國股票收入將年比小幅下降。

We expect to see headwinds year-over-year from commodities and tariffs to the tune of $1 billion.

我們預計大宗商品和關稅帶來的逆風將逐年達到 10 億美元。

Finally, headwinds from depreciation and pension income are expected to be approximately $1 billion.

最後，折舊和退休金收入帶來的阻力預計約為 10 億美元。

And as a reminder, since these are noncash items, they will compress the gap between earnings and free cash flow.

提醒一下，由於這些是非現金項目，它們將縮小收益和自由現金流之間的差距。

Offsetting these are a number of tailwinds specific to GM.

通用汽車特有的一些有利因素抵消了這些影響。

The full year benefit of our truck launch will provide tailwinds in volume, mix and price in 2019.

我們卡車推出的全年效益將為 2019 年的銷售、產品組合和價格帶來推動力。

We expect a meaningful benefit from a full year of XT4 and Blazer, the launch of Cadillac XT6, as Mary mentioned, and the roll-out of our global family of vehicles.

正如瑪麗所提到的，我們預計 XT4 和 Blazer 的全年銷售、凱迪拉克 XT6 的推出以及我們全球汽車系列的推出將帶來有意義的收益。

We also expect year-over-year growth in high-margin adjacencies, like aftersales and OnStar.

我們也預計售後和安吉星等高利潤週邊業務將實現年增。

When you layer on top of that the transformational cost savings of $2 billion to $2.5 billion through 2019, we expect these tailwinds to more than offset the headwinds, assuming a similar macro environment.

除此之外，假設宏觀環境相似，到 2019 年，轉型成本將節省 20 億至 25 億美元，我們預期這些順風因素將足以抵銷逆風因素。

It is also important to understand this year's quarterly cadence.

了解今年的季度節奏也很重要。

We expect the first quarter to be the weakest since most of our SUV downtime will be taken in the first quarter.

我們預計第一季將是最疲軟的，因為我們的 SUV 大部分停工將發生在第一季。

In addition, we will have lower volumes in China, given continued industry pressure, while staying disciplined by reducing our inventory levels.

此外，鑑於持續的行業壓力，我們在中國的銷售將減少，同時透過降低庫存水準來保持紀律。

As we progress through the year, we expect to see improvements in China equity income following these inventory actions and with a strong product launch cadence later in the year.

隨著今年的進展，我們預計，在這些庫存行動以及今年稍後產品推出的強勁節奏之後，中國股票收入將有所改善。

As a reminder, Q1 is typically our weakest cash flow quarter due to working capital seasonality.

提醒一下，由於營運資金季節性，第一季通常是我們現金流最弱的季度。

In addition, this year, given the SUV downtime that I just mentioned, Q1 cash flow is expected to be meaningfully below our historical averages.

此外，考慮到我剛才提到的SUV停工，今年第一季的現金流預計將大大低於我們的歷史平均值。

For the full year, however, we expect cash flow to improve after Q1, and our full year free cash flow, as I mentioned earlier, will be in the range of $4.5 billion to $6 billion.

然而，就全年而言，我們預計第一季後現金流將有所改善，正如我之前提到的，我們全年的自由現金流將在 45 億至 60 億美元之間。

In summary, we had a solid finish to 2018, and we will continue to stay focused on execution in 2019.

總而言之，我們為2018年畫下了圓滿的句號，2019年我們將繼續聚焦執行力。

As I mentioned in January, we had 3 key financial priorities, including: improving our free cash flow and cash conversion; a best-in-class cost structure; and efficient capital deployment.

正如我在一月份提到的，我們有 3 個關鍵的財務優先事項，包括：改善我們的自由現金流和現金轉換；一流的成本結構；以及高效率的資本配置。

That concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的開場評論到此結束，現在我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Just a sort of a follow-up question to sort of your finish there, Dhivya.

Dhivya，這只是一個後續問題，以幫助您完成此任務。

I'm just curious if you could go through sort of the cadence of the truck launches.

我只是好奇你能否體驗一下卡車發射的節奏。

I mean, it sounds like you've got 75,000 of the light-duties in the fourth quarter, but obviously, that's much lower than the run rate that you would expect on the new truck, when the HDs will actually start really contributing post their ramp of their launch and then when the SUVs will layer in.

我的意思是，聽起來您在第四季度已經獲得了 75,000 輛輕型卡車，但顯然，這遠低於您對新卡車的預期運行率，屆時 HD 將真正開始真正做出貢獻。以及SUV 的推出時間。

So if we could just kind of think about when those -- the SOP is for those and when the real full-throated benefit comes for each of the 3 sort of tranches of trucks.

因此，我們是否可以考慮一下，SOP 何時適用於這些，以及何時真正為這 3 類卡車中的每一種帶來全面的好處。

Sure, John.

當然，約翰。

So if you look at Fort Wayne, we're already up and running in full volume, and that transition is over.

因此，如果你看看韋恩堡，我們已經全面啟動並運行，並且過渡已經結束。

So if you switch over to Silao, which is where we had taken our downtime in fourth quarter, we are now up to full line rate production for our light-duty pickups.

因此，如果你切換到錫勞（我們在第四季度停工的地方），我們現在可以實現輕型皮卡的全線生產。

So after January, we're up to our full level of production.

因此，一月之後，我們就達到了全部生產水準。

So light-duties, I would say, we're pretty much done with our transition.

所以，我想說的是，我們的過渡基本上已經完成了。

If you switch over to heavy-duty, most of the changeover, we had been working on it in 2018.

如果你轉向重型，大部分的轉變，我們在 2018 年就一直在努力。

And through to second quarter of 2019, we will see a transition.

到 2019 年第二季度，我們將看到一個轉變。

And after that, starting in Q3 of 2019 is when you'll see the full production ramping up for heavy-duties.

此後，從 2019 年第三季開始，您將看到重型汽車的全面生產。

For SUVs, we're going to take the 25,000 downtime for the year.

對於 SUV，我們今年將停工 25,000 次。

That will be mostly in Q1 of 2019, and the SORP for that will be in 2020.

這主要是在 2019 年第一季度，而 SORP 將在 2020 年進行。

And we'll have more to talk about that later.

稍後我們會詳細討論這個問題。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then, just a second question.

然後，還有第二個問題。

If you could sort of update us on what's going on with Cruise.

您能否向我們介紹一下 Cruise 的最新動態？

I mean, obviously, there was some talk about getting launched with a fleet, a commercial fleet this year or something like that.

我的意思是，顯然，有人談論今年推出一支艦隊、一支商業艦隊或類似的東西。

It might be a little bit delayed.

可能會有點延遲。

And also, maybe, Mary, if you could talk about sort of what's going on with the DOT petition on the fourth-gen Cruise and if there's any word on that whatsoever.

瑪麗，也許你能談談交通部關於第四代 Cruise 的請願書的進展情況，以及是否有任何相關消息。

So there is really no word on the petition for our level 4 -- or our track 4 vehicle.

因此，請願書上確實沒有提及我們的 4 級車輛或我們的 4 級賽道車輛。

But we also are very capable of launching with the track 3 model, so I think we're in good position there.

但我們也非常有能力推出 Track 3 車型，所以我認為我們在這方面處於有利位置。

We -- as we've been consistently communicating, safety is going to be the gating metric for Cruise.

正如我們一直在溝通的那樣，安全將成為 Cruise 的門控指標。

We have hired -- we're at 1,100 people, so we've got the right team and the right focus, and obviously, moving out there has been, I think -- just shows our commitment to what we're doing there and being able to work on the whole ecosystem as well as the technology.

我們已經僱用了 1,100 名員工，因此我們擁有合適的團隊和正確的重點，顯然，我認為，搬到那裡只是表明了我們對在那裡所做的事情的承諾，能夠在整個生態系統和技術上開展工作。

We continue to make rapid progress with the technology.

我們繼續在技術上取得快速進步。

I think that's -- as evidenced by the video we released just last month that shows that our vehicle can handle maneuvers that others are struggling with.

我認為，正如我們上個月發布的影片所證明的那樣，該影片表明我們的車輛可以處理其他車輛難以處理的操作。

So I think we're in a very strong position, if not a leading position.

所以我認為我們即使不是領先，也處於非常有利的位置。

So we're continuing to make the rapid progress.

因此，我們正在繼續取得快速進展。

We're going to make sure we meet all the appropriate safety thresholds that we've defined for ourselves as well as the regulatory requirements.

我們將確保滿足我們為自己定義的所有適當的安全閾值以及監管要求。

And this is going to be a really important and critical year, and we're going to continue to update you as we progress.

這將是非常重要且關鍵的一年，隨著我們的進展，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。

But I would say everything is moving forward in a very positive fashion.

但我想說，一切都在以非常積極的方式向前發展。

And then just lastly, just one sort of housekeeping.

最後，只是一種家事服務。

When we think about the GMF dividends, I think it was $434 million in '18, sort of what is the progression as the balance sheet and the earnings grow at GMF?

當我們考慮 GMF 股息時，我認為 18 年為 4.34 億美元，隨著 GMF 資產負債表和盈利的增長，其進展如何？

And how should we think about sort of the addition to cash flow in '19 and '20 and beyond?

我們該如何考慮 19 年、20 年及以後現金流的增加？

So John, you're absolutely right.

所以約翰，你是完全正確的。

The dividend in GMF is now at a level which is lower than what would be our steady-state potential.

GMF 的股利目前處於低於我們穩態潛力的水平。

If you look at our long-term earnings before tax expectation for GMF, that's in the range of about $2 billion.

如果你看看我們對 GMF 的長期稅前收益預期，你會發現約 20 億美元。

And we expect that once we reach full captive, and that's going to be likely in the early 2020s, we would be able to dividend the entire earnings before -- well, after taxes, net income, I would say, to the parent.

我們預計，一旦我們實現完全自保，這可能會在 2020 年代初實現，我們將能夠將稅前淨收入（我想說的是稅後淨收入）之前的全部收益分紅給母公司。

The curve between there and now would be determined by our leverage ratio along the way, and we have our managerial targets of 10x leverage ratio for GMF.

從那時到現在之間的曲線將由我們一路上的槓桿率決定，我們的管理目標是 GMF 10 倍的槓桿率。

And if we see potential for dividends, we will take that.

如果我們看到股息的潛力，我們就會接受。

But we will ultimately be governed by maintaining an appropriate leverage ratio and our communications to the rating agencies and how much dividends we take out of the FinCo.

但我們最終將透過維持適當的槓桿率、我們與評級機構的溝通以及我們從 FinCo 中獲得多少股息來進行管理。

What we have assumed in our outlook for 2019 is at a level that's comparable to 2018 from a dividend perspective, and if we see anything above that, that would be upside.

從股利角度來看，我們在 2019 年展望中假設的水平與 2018 年相當，如果我們看到任何高於該水平的水平，那將是上行的。

But we'll post you guys on that as we move forward with how the leverage ratio develops.

但隨著槓桿率的發展，我們會向大家通報這一點。

But simply, it's fair to say $1.5 billion potential upside run rate to free cash flow as GMF normalizes into its size that you want to get it to.

但簡單地說，隨著 GMF 正常化到您想要的規模，自由現金流的潛在上行率為 15 億美元，這是公平的。

Is that a correct statement?

這是正確的說法嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

A couple questions.

有幾個問題。

One is, this fourth quarter margin in North America obviously was really strong.

一是，北美第四季的利潤率顯然非常強勁。

It was up year-over-year despite the higher D&A, the commodity inflation, all those headwinds.

儘管 D&A 較高、大宗商品通膨以及所有這些不利因素，但它仍同比增長。

And obviously, you're still kind of early days in the truck launch.

顯然，卡車的推出仍處於早期階段。

I was hoping you may be able to just address one aspect of how we should be thinking about the trough positive from where we are right now into 2019.

我希望您能夠從一個方面談談我們應該如何看待從現在到 2019 年的積極低谷。

At one point you talked about, I think, it was a $2 billion revenue opportunity for you as you converge your average transaction prices between where you were on the old trucks and where you expect to be.

我認為，您曾經談過，當您將舊卡車上的平均交易價格與您期望的價格進行融合時，這對您來說是一個 20 億美元的收入機會。

What's your updated view on that?

您對此有何最新看法？

Are you tracking towards that?

你正在朝這個方向努力嗎？

Is that something we should see in 2019?

這是我們 2019 年應該看到的事情嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Rod, before we even get into the numbers, I would say, from a truck launch perspective, we're really excited about the new generation of trucks, and we're -- we have been in the leadership position that -- for many years, and we expect to continue that with these brand-new launches that we have.

羅德，在我們進入數字之前，我想說，從卡車推出的角度來看，我們對新一代卡車感到非常興奮，而且我們 - 我們一直處於領導地位 - 對於許多人來說多年來，我們希望通過我們推出的這些全新產品繼續這一點。

And within that, Rod, we -- if you remember, we had talked about releasing a number of constraints that we've historically had with our previous truck platforms, including crew cab capacity, which we have -- we have fixed that, I would say, with the current generation versus the prior generation.

羅德，如果你還記得的話，我們曾討論過要釋放我們以前的卡車平台歷來存在的一些限制，包括我們擁有的雙排座駕駛室容量，我們已經解決了這個問題，我可以說，當前一代與上一代。

And also a wider and broader offering of vehicles including high content, high value.

車輛的供應範圍也越來越廣泛，包括高含量、高價值。

We were really participating in the middle of the curve, and now we've sort of expanded that to the edges as well.

我們確實參與了曲線的中間部分，現在我們也將其擴展到了邊緣。

So put all that together, Q4, you're starting to see -- you're already starting to see the impact of pricing as well as mix in our new trucks.

因此，將所有這些放在一起，第四季度，您開始看到 - 您已經開始看到定價以及我們新卡車的組合的影響。

And what you're going to see in 2019 is you could easily run rate that off of Q4, and we're also not going to have the volume headwind that we saw in 2018 for light-duties since we were transitioning them.

你將在 2019 年看到的是，你可以輕鬆地從第四季度開始計算這一點，而且我們也不會遇到 2018 年輕汽車銷售逆風，因為我們正在過渡輕型汽車。

So light-duties, I would say, volume, up; mix, favorable; and pricing continues to be supportive as well.

所以我想說的是，輕量級的，音量，調高；混合，有利；價格也繼續提供支持。

Heavy-duties, you're going to see the similar dynamic in second half of the year.

對於重型設備，您將在今年下半年看到類似的動態。

So you'll see half-year benefit of that.

所以你會看到半年的好處。

And SUV continues to be a transition year.

SUV 仍然是一個過渡年。

So a simple way of looking at it for you would be to take the Q4 results for light-duties and run rate that into 2019.

因此，一種簡單的檢視方法是採用第四季度輕型車的結果以及 2019 年的運行率。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

I was also hoping that you can address the non-China part of GMI.

我還希望您能談談 GMI 的非中國部分。

It looks like it was about a $1.6 billion drag last year.

看起來去年的拖累約 16 億美元。

What are your high-level expectations for this going forward?

您對此有何高度期望？

Obviously, there's the Korea improvement.

顯然，韓國隊有所進步。

And is the rest of it contingent on macro in South America, or are there some other things that you would expect to be big drivers?

其餘的因素是否取決於南美的宏觀經濟，或者您認為還有其他一些因素會成為重要的推動因素嗎？

Yes, if you look at our South American business over the last several years, we've taken a number of actions to rightsize the cost structure and set the business up for future profitability.

是的，如果你看看我們過去幾年的南美業務，我們已經採取了一系列行動來調整成本結構，並為未來的盈利能力做好準備。

And in fact, in Q4 of 2017, the business did breakeven and turned a profit.

事實上，2017 年第四季度，該業務確實實現了盈虧平衡並扭虧為盈。

What happened in 2018 was, as you well know, the FX story there with the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso.

眾所周知，2018 年發生的事情是巴西雷亞爾和阿根廷比索的外匯故事。

What we've done since then is to start working with a number of our stakeholders, as you know, in South America, and we'll have more to say as we make more progress there.

從那時起，我們所做的就是開始與南美洲的一些利益相關者合作，如您所知，隨著我們在那裡取得更多進展，我們將有更多話要說。

But it's important to know a couple of factors specific to 2019.

但了解 2019 年的幾個具體因素非常重要。

One is we are going to have a full year impact of pricing in South America because price tends to lag FX there.

一是我們將對南美洲的定價產生全年影響，因為那裡的價格往往落後於外匯。

So last year, as we were experiencing headwinds in FX, we were pricing for them but on a lagged basis.

因此，去年，當我們遇到外匯逆風時，我們就對其進行了定價，但價格是滯後的。

So you're going to see a full year impact of that in 2019.

因此，您將在 2019 年看到此事件對全年的影響。

And the second aspect is towards the end of the year, we're going to start to see the impact of our global family of vehicles, and this is the portfolio that we shared more in detail about on -- last month at our Capital Markets Day.

第二個方面是到今年年底，我們將開始看到我們的全球汽車系列的影響，這是我們上個月在資本市場上更詳細地分享的投資組合天。

That portfolio is a new architecture that replaces a number of legacy architectures.

該產品組合是一個新的架構，取代了許多遺留架構。

So the cost profile and the margin profile of the portfolio is different as well as the footprint for the portfolio, where we are more hedged from an FX perspective.

因此，投資組合的成本狀況和保證金狀況以及投資組合的足跡都是不同的，從外匯角度來看，我們更多的是對沖。

So you're going to start to see the impact of that.

所以你將開始看到它的影響。

So year-over-year, in 2019, based on everything in South America and the actions we've taken in Korea as well, we expect to see improvement from a profitability perspective in GMI.

因此，與去年同期相比，2019 年，基於南美的一切以及我們在韓國採取的行動，我們預計 GMI 的獲利能力將有所改善。

Great.

偉大的。

And just one last question.

還有最後一個問題。

You talked about $4.5 billion to $6 billion of free cash flow but $6 billion to $6.5 billion excluding the timing differences, which were, I think, largely related to supplier payment days.

您談到了 45 億至 60 億美元的自由現金流，但不包括時間差異的 60 億至 65 億美元，我認為這在很大程度上與供應商付款天數有關。

If we were to think about the underlying free cash flow of the business in 2019 to kind of use as -- for bridging purposes, to understand where your -- the free cash flow generative power is of the company, is it really closer to the $6.5 billion just on a go-forward basis?

如果我們考慮 2019 年企業的基本自由現金流，以作為橋樑目的，了解公司的自由現金流產生能力在哪裡，它是否真的更接近65 億美元只是在未來的基礎上？

Yes.

是的。

I think timing -- you have it right, Rod.

我認為時機——你說得對，羅德。

It was basically related to supplier payments as well as production timing and our changeover.

這基本上與供應商付款以及生產時間和我們的轉換有關。

And as we look beyond 2019, excluding the impact of timing, you're going to see the remaining cost savings flow through.

當我們展望 2019 年後，排除時間的影響，您將看到剩餘的成本節省。

We said $4.5 billion in total.

我們說總共 45 億美元。

2019 we'll get about half of it, and the 2020 results will have the remaining benefits of the cost savings as well.

2019 年我們將獲得約一半的收益，2020 年的結果也將獲得成本節省的剩餘收益。

And couple of that with our CapEx savings, we talked about how our $8.5 billion run rate will get to a -- $8.5 billion current level will get to a $7 billion run rate by 2020.

加上我們的資本支出節省，我們討論了我們 85 億美元的運行率將如何達到目前的 85 億美元水平，到 2020 年將達到 70 億美元的運行率。

You're going to see the impact of that in 2020 as well.

您也將在 2020 年看到其影響。

But obviously, all of that is in the context of the current macro environment, and what I'm giving you is puts and takes assuming nothing else changes, but you have these tailwinds working for us in 2020.

但顯然，所有這些都是在當前宏觀環境的背景下進行的，我給你的是假設沒有其他變化的看跌期權和看跌期權，但這些順風車在 2020 年對我們來說是有利的。

Our next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Itay Michaeli。

Just a first question on China.

這是關於中國的第一個問題。

Given the recent challenges in the last few quarters, how are you now thinking about kind of normalized China margins for GM, say, over the next couple of years?

考慮到過去幾季面臨的挑戰，您現在如何考慮未來幾年通用汽車在中國的正常化利潤率？

Well, I think if you look at -- there's kind of puts and takes there.

嗯，我想如果你看一下——那裡有某種看跌期權和索取期權。

From a Cadillac perspective and launching more crossovers, we think there's an opportunity to continue to grow and improve the margins.

從凱迪拉克的角度來看，並推出更多跨界車，我們認為有機會繼續成長並提高利潤率。

Clearly, as we transition to more electrified vehicles, as we gain scale, that will be lower and then move higher.

顯然，隨著我們轉向更電動化的汽車，隨著我們規模的擴大，這一比例將會降低，然後會上升。

So we're still focused on having strong margins in China.

因此，我們仍然專注於在中國保持強勁的利潤率。

We'll go through a bit of a transition with the EVs, but we think that especially the growth of Cadillac and some of our larger SUVs will help offset that.

我們將在電動車方面經歷一些過渡，但我們認為，尤其是凱迪拉克和我們一些大型 SUV 的成長將有助於抵消這種影響。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then I think you mentioned $1 billion still assumed for commodities and tariffs.

然後我想你提到了 10 億美元仍用於商品和關稅。

Love to get your thoughts on the tariff component in terms of what you're assuming and just some -- what are some of the scenarios we should be thinking about with Section 232 and some of the other items that are still outstanding out there.

希望了解您對關稅部分的看法，包括您的假設和一些想法——我們應該考慮第 232 條的一些場景以及其他一些仍然懸而未決的項目。

Yes.

是的。

Itay, it's a pretty volatile environment, so I don't want to put specific numbers on individual components here.

Itay，這是一個非常不穩定的環境，所以我不想在這裡給出各個組件的具體數字。

You've seen some pullback in steel and aluminum.

您已經看到鋼鐵和鋁材價格回落。

Palladium has gone up.

鈀金已經上漲。

And it changes day to day.

而且它每天都在變化。

So I wouldn't really break that down into individual components.

所以我不會真正將其分解為單獨的組件。

We do have the 301 tariff factored into our outlook for the year.

我們確實將 301 關稅納入了今年的展望。

That's embedded in our $1 billion number.

這已包含在我們 10 億美元的數字中。

And as we said last year, the amount -- since our sourcing for steel and aluminum is largely local, we don't anticipate any tariff component there.

正如我們去年所說，由於我們的鋼鐵和鋁採購主要是在當地進行，因此我們預計不會有任何關稅成分。

That's more of where the spot prices are moving, and that tends to be lagged by a couple of months.

這更多的是現貨價格的變動，而且往往會落後幾個月。

So take that as a broader $1 billion number.

因此，可以將其視為更廣泛的 10 億美元數字。

And we've shown during 2018 that we're going to work to offset that with mature cost efficiencies and other efficiencies that we can find, and that's no different in 2019.

我們在 2018 年已經表明，我們將努力透過成熟的成本效率和我們能找到的其他效率來抵消這一影響，2019 年也不例外。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

Just one quick question, and I think Rod alluded to this.

只是一個簡單的問題，我認為羅德提到了這一點。

The higher D&A in North America, it looks like -- I think some of that was accelerated depreciation related to some of the actions you took in North America.

北美的 D&A 較高，我認為其中一些是與您在北美採取的一些行動相關的加速折舊。

Was that actually backed out then, the accelerated part, from the adjusted results?

那麼，加速部分實際上是否從調整後的結果中取消了？

That's right.

這是正確的。

The accelerated depreciation is a part of the overall charge for transformation, which is treated as special for EBIT-adjusted.

加速折舊是轉型總費用的一部分，對於調整後的息稅前利潤被視為特殊費用。

The one that Rod was talking about in the form of additional D&A, that is our normal cadence of our D&A normalizing to our capital levels.

羅德所說的額外 D&A 形式，就是我們 D&A 正常化到我們資本水準的正常節奏。

And we saw a proportion of that flow through in the fixed component of our EBIT walk.

我們在息稅前利潤分析的固定部分中看到了其中的一部分。

For the fourth quarter as well as the calendar year, it impacted results.

對於第四季和日曆年來說，它影響了業績。

And as I said, in 2019, that will continue to impact results as well.

正如我所說，2019 年，這也將繼續影響結果。

That's the normal D&A, Joe.

這就是正常的 D&A，喬。

The accelerated one is not counted in that.

加速的不算在裡面。

Okay.

好的。

So of the $1.5 billion roughly in North America, that includes the accelerated portion.

因此，在北美約 15 億美元中，其中包括加速部分。

So it was up -- so on an apples-to-apples basis, it was up a couple of hundred million dollars year-over-year?

所以它上漲了——所以在同類的基礎上，它比去年上漲了數億美元？

The -- are you talking about the accelerated portion or the normal one?

- 你說的是加速部分還是正常部分？

No.

不。

Just like -- on an adjusted basis, like, how much higher was D&A year-over-year?

就像－在調整後的基礎上，D&A 年比增長了多少？

I'd say from a transformation perspective, we took a charge of about $1.3 billion for the year.

我想說，從轉型的角度來看，我們今年的費用約為 13 億美元。

That included D&A of about $300 million or so within the $1.3 billion charge, so that's the transformation portion.

其中包括 13 億美元費用中約 3 億美元的 D&A，所以這是轉型部分。

And on a normalized basis, if you look at our calendar year EBIT walk, the fixed component had a year-over-year increase.

在標準化的基礎上，如果你看看我們歷年的息稅前利潤走勢，你會發現固定部分年增。

A vast majority of that, if not all of it, I would say, would be attributed to D&A.

我想說，其中絕大多數（如果不是全部）都歸功於 D&A。

Okay.

好的。

And then, so the real, I guess, point in going down this path is as we think -- you shared the free cash flow walks on Slide 13.

然後，我想，沿著這條道路走下去的真正意義在於我們所認為的——您在幻燈片 13 上分享了自由現金流的變化。

As we think about that CapEx less depreciation for '19, does that gap further narrow, relative to your $8 billion to $9 billion CapEx guidance for the year?

當我們考慮 19 年的資本支出減少折舊時，相對於您今年 80 億至 90 億美元的資本支出指導，這一差距是否進一步縮小？

Yes.

是的。

The way I would think about that bridge is, in 2019, you're going to have $1 billion of additional depreciation and pension income, which are noncash.

我對這座橋樑的看法是，到 2019 年，你將有 10 億美元的額外折舊和退休金收入，這些都是非現金的。

So you'll see the compression in the first 2 bars coming from that.

所以你會看到前兩個小節的壓縮來自於此。

And in 2020, you're going to see additional depreciation and pension and a decline in $1 billion of capital, so that should be on top of the pension and depreciation number that I would think about.

到 2020 年，您將看到額外的折舊和退休金以及 10 億美元資本的減少，因此這應該是我考慮的退休金和折舊數字之上的。

And as John asked earlier about GMF, that's the other component of -- when that dividend starts to come in, that will be on top of these first 2 components.

正如約翰早些時候詢問的關於基因改造食品的問題，這是另一個組成部分——當股息開始出現時，它將位於前兩個組成部分之上。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Colin Langan。

There's obviously a lot of pushback on the plans to close some plants.

關閉一些工廠的計劃顯然遭到了許多阻力。

I mean, how much of that $4.5 billion is at risk if the unions don't allow those concessions for closing?

我的意思是，如果工會不允許關閉這些讓步，這 45 億美元中有多少會面臨風險？

And do you see that as a risk?

您認為這是一種風險嗎？

I think, obviously, it's important.

我認為，顯然，這很重要。

We announced that the plants are unallocated.

我們宣布這些工廠尚未分配。

And as part of our UAW negotiations this year, we need to finalize the status.

作為今年 UAW 談判的一部分，我們需要最終確定這一地位。

But I think when you look at the fact that of the 2,800 workers that are impacted, 1,200 of them are retirement-eligible and we have about 2,700 jobs available.

但我認為，在 2,800 名受到影響的工人中，其中 1,200 人符合退休資格，我們還有大約 2,700 個工作機會。

As I mentioned, already 950 people have been placed.

正如我所提到的，已經安置了 950 人。

I think as we work through and address the concerns from a workforce perspective, that will go a long way to allowing us to make this transition.

我認為，當我們從勞動力的角度解決並解決這些問題時，這將對我們實現這一轉變大有幫助。

And so I'm -- yes, obviously, we have work to do, but when we look at what we need to do from a market perspective, we can't run at a 70% utilization.

所以我——是的，顯然，我們還有工作要做，但當我們從市場角度來看我們需要做什麼時，我們無法以 70% 的利用率運作。

We had to improve that.

我們必須改進這一點。

And that, we'll work to accomplish.

我們將努力實現這一目標。

So that's the way I look at it.

這就是我的看法。

And I don't see risks from -- especially with the ability that we have to move the people to places where we're hiring.

我沒有看到任何風險——尤其是我們有能力將人員轉移到我們正在招募的地方。

I mean, we just announced yesterday that we have 1,000 jobs available in Flint.

我的意思是，我們昨天剛剛宣布，弗林特有 1,000 個職位空缺。

So I think it's the transition we have to go through.

所以我認為這是我們必須經歷的轉變。

It's work we have to do and problem solve with UAW.

這是我們必須與 UAW 一起解決問題的工作。

Got it.

知道了。

And when we look at your '19 guidance, I mean, what is the assumption on pickups?

當我們查看您 19 年的指導時，我的意思是，對皮卡的假設是什麼？

I mean, do you expect to -- and is it more about the new product mix or pricing?

我的意思是，您是否期望——更多的是關於新產品組合或定價？

Some of the recent data showed some market share shift, if you follow it month-to-month.

如果你逐月追蹤的話，最近的一些數據顯示市場佔有率發生了一些變化。

But, I mean, are you optimistic that you're going to gain share with new truck?

但是，我的意思是，您對透過新卡車獲得市場份額感到樂觀嗎？

Or is it more about pricing?

或更多的是關於定價？

I would say it's volume, mix, price, all of the above.

我想說的是數量、組合、價格，所有這些。

We expect the truck penetration to hover around the ranges that it has in the recent past, which is in the low 20s.

我們預計卡車滲透率將徘徊在最近的範圍內，即 20 左右。

We expect that to continue going forward.

我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

The crew cab mix is an important component of all of this.

雙排座駕駛室組合是這一切的重要組成部分。

As I mentioned earlier, in the second half of the year, when we released the constraint on crew cabs with Fort Wayne, we saw the tailwind associated with that.

正如我之前提到的，今年下半年，當我們解除了韋恩堡雙排座駕駛室的限制時，我們看到了與之相關的順風車。

We're going to see in the full year or calendar year a full impact of both Fort Wayne and Silao running at full crew cab capacity.

我們將在全年或歷年看到韋恩堡和錫勞在滿員駕駛室運行時所產生的全面影響。

Got it.

知道了。

So the recent market share changes that are showing up, they're not concerning to you, I guess, it's (inaudible)?

因此，最近出現的市場份額變化與您無關，我想，這是（聽不清楚）？

Yes, I wouldn't extrapolate from one data point, Colin.

是的，我不會從一個數據點推斷，科林。

Got it.

知道了。

And just lastly, any color on where your inventory in China is?

最後，請問你們在中國的庫存在哪裡？

There's a lot of concern that there's still high inventories, I guess, across industry.

我猜，整個行業的庫存仍然很高，這引起了許多人的擔憂。

Yes.

是的。

I would say we've taken actions in Q4 to rightsize our overall production levels.

我想說，我們已在第四季採取行動，調整我們的整體生產水準。

We took out about 250,000 units of production in China in Q4.

第四季我們在中國的產量約為25萬輛。

If you look at the overall inventory picture, we target to be typically around 40 to 45 days of inventory.

如果您查看整體庫存情況，我們的目標通常是 40 至 45 天左右的庫存。

SGM, which operates more in the Tier 1 to 2 cities is a touch above that, and we're working on that further in Q1 of 2019.

SGM 在 1 至 2 線城市開展業務，其業務量略高於此，我們將在 2019 年第一季進一步開展這方面的工作。

SGMW is at a level that is higher than we would like.

SGMW 的水平高於我們的預期。

And again, that's an action that we have to continue to take in Q1 as well.

同樣，這也是我們在第一季必須繼續採取的行動。

So when I talked about cadence in my remarks, and I alluded to Q1 being the seasonal low in China as well, it factors the inventory rightsizing actions within that.

因此，當我在演講中談到節奏時，我提到第一季也是中國的季節性低點，它考慮了其中的庫存調整行動。

Our next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛‧坦貝裡諾 (David Tamberrino)。

Great.

偉大的。

Let's stay in China for the moment.

我們暫時留在中國吧。

I'm trying to read the tea leaves on your comments.

我正在嘗試閱讀您的評論。

Does it sound like your JV income should take a step down from the $300 million run rate in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter as you take some of these inventory actions in shutdown production and in wholesales.

聽起來您的合資企業收入是否應該從第四季度和第一季的 3 億美元運行率下降，因為您在停產和批發中採取了一些庫存行動。

But then, you're expecting it to improve sequentially throughout the year and outside -- getting to normalized wholesale shipments.

但是，您預計它會在全年和外部連續改善 - 達到標準化的批發出貨量。

I'm just wondering what's the main driver there.

我只是想知道那裡的主要驅動力是什麼。

Yes.

是的。

Firstly, I would not assume that it would take a step down from Q4.

首先，我不會認為它會比第四季下降。

I would say, similar to Q4, we're taking inventory actions.

我想說，與第四季類似，我們正在採取庫存行動。

We took them in Q4 from a production perspective, and we're going to continue to take them in Q1 as well.

我們在第四季從生產角度考慮了它們，我們也將繼續在第一季考慮它們。

And I think it's important to note, the 20 new launches that we talked about earlier, they are in Q2, Q3 and Q4.

我認為值得注意的是，我們之前談到的 20 個新產品發布，分別是在第二季、第三季和第四季。

So actions that are specific to us, I would say, really start to take effect in the latter half of the year.

因此，我想說，我們特有的行動將在今年下半年真正開始生效。

So from a cadence perspective in China, I would say, Q1, expect similar-ish levels to Q4 and then a pickup after that, but obviously, with an eye overall on the macro environment as well as the sales picture over there.

因此，從中國的節奏角度來看，我想說，第一季預計與第四季度水平相似，然後會有所回升，但顯然，要關注整體宏觀環境以及那裡的銷售情況。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful, Dhivya.

這很有幫助，迪維亞。

And then from a Cruise perspective, the spend, well below your $1 billion target for the year.

然後從郵輪的角度來看，支出遠低於今年 10 億美元的目標。

Is there anything to read into that?

有什麼值得解讀的嗎？

Are you signaling anything here?

你在這裡發出什麼訊號嗎？

I kind of want to understand if there was a tone shift earlier.

我有點想了解之前是否有語氣轉變。

Another analyst asked a question, it wasn't necessarily answered or not, if we should expect a later deployment in 2019.

另一位分析師提出了一個問題，但我們是否應該預期在 2019 年稍後進行部署，這個問題不一定有答案。

It seemed a little bit more squishy, if I can use that term.

如果我可以使用這個詞的話，它看起來有點更軟。

But on the back of that one tone shift question, too, should that spend in 2019 ramp towards that $1 billion that you're looking for?

但在這個基調轉變問題的背後，2019 年的支出是否應該達到您想要的 10 億美元？

And then what type of increased spend are you really contemplating at deployment for your operations as well as customer acquisition costs with getting people into an AV ride-hailing network?

那麼，您真正考慮在營運部署方面增加什麼類型的支出，以及讓人們進入 AV 叫車網路的客戶獲取成本？

Well, David, we're not squishy at all on our plan for AV, for Cruise.

好吧，大衛，我們對 AV 和 Cruise 的計劃一點也不猶豫。

I would say one of the reasons the spend is lower -- turned out to be lower in 2018 is Kyle Vogt is an excellent leader and manager, and he spends every dollar like it's his own.

我想說，2018 年支出較低的原因之一是凱爾·沃格特 (Kyle Vogt) 是一位出色的領導者和經理，他花每一美元都像自己的錢一樣。

So there's incredibly good cost controls in Cruise -- in GM Cruise, so that's -- and you saw what we expect to spend this year.

因此，通用汽車 Cruise 的成本控制非常好，您也看到了我們今年的預期支出。

So I think that's just good cost discipline.

所以我認為這是很好的成本紀律。

As I said that this is one of the biggest technical challenges of our time, but I think we're really well positioned.

正如我所說，這是我們這個時代最大的技術挑戰之一，但我認為我們確實處於有利位置。

We're committed.

我們承諾。

We have every resource we need.

我們擁有我們所需的一切資源。

And if they come forward and say they need additional resources, we stand ready to provide those.

如果他們站出來表示需要額外資源，我們隨時準備提供。

So I think it's in a strong position from funding.

所以我認為它在資金方面處於有利地位。

I think it's in a strong position as we continue to do the development.

我認為隨著我們繼續開發，它處於有利地位。

And so we're going to keep you posted throughout the year, but we're on track from the performance that we've talked about.

因此，我們將全年向您通報最新情況，但從我們所討論的表現來看，我們正步入正軌。

And I think, again, reference the video, that -- what the vehicle is now able to do.

我認為，再次參考視頻，車輛現在能夠做什麼。

We're going to continue to work on the regulatory front as well, and we will hold ourselves to the safety standards that we've set.

我們也將繼續在監管方面開展工作，並且我們將嚴格遵守我們制定的安全標準。

But we're committed, and we're moving at a very aggressive pace.

但我們很堅定，並且正在以非常積極的步伐前進。

Okay.

好的。

And just within that -- maybe I'm missing it.

就在其中——也許我錯過了它。

You did about $700 million of spend this year.

今年您的支出約為 7 億美元。

Your target was $1 billion for 2018.

您 2018 年的目標是 10 億美元。

You came in $300 million below that.

你的收入比這個少了 3 億美元。

I understand some cost saves.

我了解可以節省一些成本。

Are you expecting a similar level, $700 million, in your 2019 guidance or so, Dhivya?

Dhivya，您在 2019 年左右的指導中是否預計會出現類似的水平（7 億美元）？

Our guidance for 2019 for GM Cruise is approximately $1 billion.

我們對 GM Cruise 2019 年的指引約為 10 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自亞當‧喬納斯與摩根士丹利的對話。

Two quick questions.

兩個簡單的問題。

First, when do you think GM can sell EVs for a positive EBIT margin, roughly?

首先，您認為通用汽車大約什麼時候可以以正息稅前利潤率出售電動車？

So Adam, we've talked to you about the fact that with our next generation of development, that we want to make sure we have obtainable, profitable, desirable and with the appropriate range, and so that is the work that we're doing.

亞當，我們已經與您討論了這樣一個事實，即透過我們的下一代開發，我們希望確保我們擁有可用的、有利可圖的、理想的且具有適當範圍的產品，這就是我們正在做的工作。

We benefit from the fact that we have a strong position in China.

我們受益於我們在中國擁有強大地位的事實。

And as you know, regulatory -- the regulatory situation will drive there.

如你所知，監管——監管情況將推動這一點。

Also, I think, important to note that we have the partnership with Honda to leverage the technology as well.

另外，我認為，值得注意的是，我們也與本田建立了合作夥伴關係，以利用該技術。

So I think we're in a good position in driving our cell costs down, also, from a quality perspective.

因此，我認為從品質角度來看，我們在降低電池成本方面也處於有利地位。

And that is our stated goal when we launch that next family of vehicles.

這就是我們推出下一代車輛時的既定目標。

Okay.

好的。

So I'm interpreting that as kind of post-2020, maybe 2021, correct me if I'm wrong.

所以我將其解釋為 2020 年後，也許是 2021 年，如果我錯了，請糾正我。

Second question for either Mary, you or for Mark if he's on.

第二個問題問瑪麗、你或馬克（如果他在的話）。

What do you think of an all-electric pickup truck, and when will GM sell an e-Silverado?

您對全電動皮卡車有何看法？

So I think -- just -- you said correct you if you're wrong.

所以我認為——只是——你說過如果你錯了就糾正你。

I would say early next decade, but I wouldn't put any more specificity on EV profitability than that.

我會說下個十年初期，但我不會對電動車的獲利能力做出更多具體說明。

And all I'll say in your second question is we believe in an all-EV future, so you'll have to stay tuned.

在你的第二個問題中我要說的是我們相信全電動汽車的未來，所以你必須保持關注。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

One thought to ask on GM International restructuring progress, outside of China, that is.

一種想法是詢問通用汽車國際公司在中國以外的重組進展。

So could you provide us with an update on the Korea restructuring announced on the 1Q call last year, and how you would rate your progress there since that time?

那麼，您能否向我們提供去年第一季電話會議上宣布的韓國重組的最新情況，以及您如何評價自那時以來在該方面取得的進展？

Also, I think there were 2 international plants included in the restructuring announcement back in November.

另外，我認為 11 月的重整公告中包括了 2 家國際工廠。

These were unnamed but slated to close sometime in 2019, presumably they're outside Korea, perhaps South America.

這些工廠未具名，但預計將於 2019 年某個時候關閉，推測它們位於韓國境外，也許是南美洲。

Any update you can provide on how investors should think about the cadence of those savings as 2019 progresses?

隨著 2019 年的進展，投資者應如何考慮這些儲蓄的節奏，您能否提供任何最新資訊？

I mean, I would step back and look more broadly at GMI, not including China, and Dhivya has already addressed South America.

我的意思是，我會退後一步，更廣泛地審視 GMI，不包括中國，而 Dhivya 已經談到了南美洲。

I would say the Korea restructuring is on track, and we're also seeing a pickup in our share there.

我想說，韓國的重組正在步入正軌，我們在那裡的份額也有所上升。

Obviously, it was a difficult period of time.

顯然，這是一段艱難的時期。

So we continue to implement all of the actions that we announced last year.

因此，我們將繼續實施去年宣布的所有行動。

I would say there's still work that we're doing around that region to rightsize the business, have a solid plan to profitability, and that work is underway.

我想說的是，我們仍在該地區開展工作，以調整業務規模，制定可靠的盈利計劃，而且這項工作正在進行中。

So I don't have anything more specific to add.

所以我沒有更具體的內容可以補充。

But we're -- what we announced with the 2 plants is definitely on track.

但我們宣布的兩家工廠的計劃肯定已步入正軌。

And I don't know, Dhivya, if you have any additional color you want to add there.

我不知道，Dhivya，您是否想在其中添加任何其他顏色。

I would just say that the cost savings that we have outlined for 2019 contemplate the right cadence for these plants as well.

我只想說，我們概述的 2019 年成本節約也考慮了這些工廠的正確節奏。

So it's all baked in.

所以全部都烤好了。

Great.

偉大的。

And then lastly but sticking with GMI.

最後，還是堅持使用 GMI。

It looks like currency continues to be a fairly large headwind, $300 million in the third quarter.

看起來貨幣仍然是一個相當大的阻力，第三季為 3 億美元。

Seemingly, the Argentine peso and the real, biggest drivers there.

看起來，阿根廷比索才是真正的、最大的驅動因素。

Based on the prevailing spot prices, any hedges that you might have?

根據現行現貨價格，您可能有任何對沖嗎？

And then your localization plans with regard to the GEM platform, how should we think about this trend as 2019 progresses?

那麼創業板平台的在地化計劃，隨著2019年的進展，我們該如何看待這個趨勢？

Yes.

是的。

I would say, there's been some stabilization post the elections in Brazil from a Brazilian real perspective.

我想說，從巴西真實的角度來看，巴西選舉後出現了一些穩定性。

But obviously, it remains elevated relative to historical averages.

但顯然，相對於歷史平均仍然較高。

I think the way to think about Brazil and Argentina is we're able to price in line with inflation in Brazil.

我認為考慮巴西和阿根廷的方式是我們能夠根據巴西的通貨膨脹來定價。

And we typically pass through the FX headwinds in Argentina.

在阿根廷，我們通常會經歷外匯逆風。

There might be a lag run, but I wouldn't think of Argentina anything other than you take last few months of FX headwinds and kind of factor that into your future pricing ability.

可能會出現滯後，但我不會想到阿根廷會經歷過去幾個月的外匯逆風，並將其納入未來的定價能力。

So I wouldn't think of it as hedges, and we don't use forwards necessarily in these areas.

所以我不認為它是對沖，而且我們不一定在這些領域使用遠期合約。

I would look at pricing and localization as the 2 primary levers we have from an FX management perspective.

從外匯管理的角度來看，我將定價和在地化視為我們擁有的兩個主要槓桿。

And on localization, the next generation of vehicles that I mentioned earlier will be more localized.

而在國產化方面，我之前提到的下一代車輛將會更加國產化。

But with all the actions we're taking, it is our objective to be able to breakeven and turn a profit at even more extreme levels of FX, so we're continuing to work on it.

但透過我們正在採取的所有行動，我們的目標是能夠在更極端的外匯層面上實現收支平衡並獲利，因此我們將繼續努力實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

Yes, I want to ask you a few questions around GM Financial.

是的，我想問你一些關於通用汽車金融的問題。

First, if I look at full year '18 over '17, ROA seemed to expand from 140 bps to 195 bps.

首先，如果我看看 18 年全年與 17 年相比，ROA 似乎從 140 個基點擴大到 195 個基點。

Could you maybe dimension how much of that was due to lease residual performance versus credit performance versus other factors like net interest margin or cost saves?

您能否衡量其中有多少是由於租賃剩餘績效、信用績效以及淨利差或成本節省等其他因素造成的？

Yes.

是的。

I would say, if you look at overall year-over-year GMF EBT bridge, if you will, half of it from increase in volumes as they continue to grow to full captive levels, so just their penetration getting higher and their overall volumes getting higher; and the other half coming from the fact that residual values were flat in 2018 versus 2017.

我想說的是，如果你看一下總體同比GMF EBT 橋，如果你願意的話，其中一半來自數量的增加，因為它們繼續增長到完全自保水平，所以它們的滲透率越來越高，總數量也越來越多更高;另一半則來自 2018 年殘值與 2017 年持平。

So take the delta, Brian, and divide that by 2.

布萊恩，用 Delta 值除以 2。

Okay.

好的。

So the main factor of the ROA increase would have been the residuals, which gets to the second question.

因此，ROA 增加的主要因素是殘差，這涉及第二個問題。

You've talked about a mature run rate of about $2 billion EBIT.

您談到了約 20 億美元的息稅前利潤的成熟運行率。

Full year '19 was $1.9 billion and the fourth quarter would kind of be right in line with that.

19 年全年營收為 19 億美元，第四季的營收與此相符。

Are you implying that it's sort of going to be flattish as perhaps residual gains come down given your used car pricing forecast or even down next year?

您是否暗示，由於您的二手車定價預測，剩餘收益可能會下降，甚至明年會下降，因此它會變得持平？

I'd say 2019 flat to 2018.

我想說2019年跟2018年持平。

We're expecting a 4% to 6% decline in residual values, which we expect will be offset by the growth in volume that I mentioned and our continued penetration.

我們預計殘值將下降 4% 至 6%，我們預計這將被我提到的銷售成長和我們的持續滲透所抵消。

And the other aspect, longer term as well, Brian, is as the business matures, you're able to spread the OpEx over a larger asset base.

另一方面，從長遠來看，布萊恩，隨著業務的成熟，您可以將營運支出分散到更大的資產基礎上。

So we should see OpEx efficiencies as well as we move forward.

因此，我們應該在前進的同時看到營運支出的效率。

Okay.

好的。

And the need to grow the asset base is why you're not committing to upping the payout ratio to the full 100% just yet?

擴大資產基礎的需要是您尚未承諾將派息率提高至 100% 的原因嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

So our current asset base is around north of $95 billion.

因此，我們目前的資產基礎約為 950 億美元。

We would see in the next several years that, that would tail off probably in the $120 billion range.

我們會看到，在接下來的幾年裡，這一數字可能會減少到 1200 億美元左右。

So the amount of equity that we're holding in the FinCo now is to support that remaining growth.

因此，我們現在在 FinCo 中持有的股權數量是為了支持剩餘的成長。

And final question is really around your GM Financial JV in China.

最後一個問題其實是關於你們在中國的通用汽車金融合資企業的。

At least the 3Q is up to 44% retail penetration, which seems impressive.

至少第三季零售滲透率高達44%，看起來令人印象深刻。

A few just more strategic questions.

一些更具策略性的問題。

Is -- to what extent is there further room to use that to offset some of the headwinds in the Chinese market?

在多大程度上有進一步的空間可以利用它來抵消中國市場的一些不利因素？

And then second, as you kind of think about the mix -- vehicle mix in China, are you better able to penetrate the upper Cadillac, Buick end of the market with that support versus the lower end, given the credit profile of the buyers?

其次，當你考慮中國的汽車結構時，考慮到買家的信用狀況，在這種支持下，你是否能夠更好地滲透到凱迪拉克、別克高端市場，而不是低端市場？

I'd say to your first question, there's certainly room from a growth perspective for SAIC GMAC joint venture.

對於你的第一個問題，我想說的是，從上汽通用汽車金融合資公司的角度來看，肯定有成長的空間。

We are still in the early stages of, I would say, penetration over there on financing and also the leasing portfolio, which is in its infancy.

我想說，我們仍處於融資和租賃組合滲透的早期階段，而租賃組合仍處於起步階段。

So more growth to be had longer term.

因此，從長遠來看，會有更多的成長。

And across the board, I would say, in China, adjacencies are at its early stages of development across the board, whether it's the aftersales, GMF and others.

我想說的是，在中國，無論是售後、GMF 或其他方面，週邊業務都處於發展的早期階段。

So we'll continue growing those.

所以我們將繼續發展這些。

And from a vehicle mix perspective, perhaps more tilted towards the Tier 1 to 2 markets than the Tier 3 to 4 market, but I wouldn't specifically draw trends on Cadillac versus other brands.

從車輛組合的角度來看，可能比 3 至 4 級市場更傾向於 1 至 2 級市場，但我不會專門繪製凱迪拉克與其他品牌的趨勢。

Our next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner)。

I wanted to ask you about the expected cadence of some of the benefits from your restructuring actions.

我想問您重組行動帶來的一些好處的預期節奏。

I assume that as part of your comments around the cadence for the earnings this year, some of it is also when some of these benefits hit and maybe beyond the first quarter.

我認為，作為您對今年收益節奏的評論的一部分，其中一些也是在其中一些收益出現時發生的，甚至可能超出第一季。

So can you maybe talk to us about that $2 billion to $2.5 billion benefit expected for this year?

那麼您能否與我們談談今年預計帶來的 20 億至 25 億美元的收益？

How should we think about it in terms of progression throughout the year?

我們該如何看待全年的進展？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say we're off to a pretty good start.

我想說我們有了一個很好的開始。

As I mentioned in my comments, Q4, we already started to see early signs of these savings starting to flow through.

正如我在第四季的評論中提到的，我們已經開始看到這些節省開始流動的早期跡象。

And if you look at calendar year 2019, the savings will be tilted more towards the earlier part of the year, so we'll be off to a pretty good start here after Q1.

如果你看看 2019 年，你會發現節省的資金將更多地集中在今年早些時候，因此我們在第一季之後將有一個良好的開端。

So I'd say Q1 is when we implement it.

所以我想說第一季是我們實施它的時候。

Q2 onwards, you'll start to see the benefits.

從第二季度開始，您將開始看到好處。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

And I guess, second question.

我想，第二個問題。

There's -- I don't think there was a big focus on the Capital Markets Day, but I was curious about your results around the opportunity to do some -- or the priority around doing some buybacks this year.

我認為資本市場日並沒有受到很大的關注，但我很好奇你們關於做一些事情的機會的結果，或者今年進行一些回購的優先事項。

It feels like if you achieve your $4.5 billion to $6 billion guidance, even after financing, restructuring and the common dividends, it feels like there could be some room, depending on where you shake out, for some buyback.

感覺就像，如果你實現了 45 億至 60 億美元的指導，即使在融資、重組和普通股息之後，感覺也可能有一些回購的空間，這取決於你在哪裡擺脫困境。

Is that a priority?

這是優先事項嗎？

Or is the 2019 view that it's more a transition year and then it would come in future years?

或者說 2019 年更像是過渡年，然後在未來幾年到來？

E

乙

Yes.

是的。

We're going to stay very committed to our capital allocation framework of looking at opportunities to continue to invest in the business to generate a greater-than-20% return as well as maintaining a investment-grade balance sheet.

我們將繼續堅定地致力於我們的資本配置框架，尋找繼續投資業務的機會，以產生超過 20% 的回報，並維持投資等級資產負債表。

And then as -- if as we get to that point, there's opportunity, that will be returned to shareholders.

然後，如果我們達到這一點，我們就有機會回報股東。

So don't have anything specific to say other than we're going to follow our process.

因此，除了我們將遵循我們的流程之外，沒有什麼具體可說的。

Okay.

好的。

And I guess, finally, just curious what you're seeing in terms of latest data and trends in China.

我想，最後，我只是好奇你在中國的最新數據和趨勢上看到了什麼。

Obviously, you're assuming a fairly flat market for the year, which I think when the guidance was given may have been perhaps seen as optimistic.

顯然，您假設今年的市場相當平坦，我認為在給出指導時可能被認為是樂觀的。

Now the most recent data point throughout January seemed to suggest maybe a little bit of stabilization.

現在一月份的最新數據似乎表明可能有一點穩定。

Are you seeing any of that, or is it sort of like too early to say in terms of the Chinese market?

您是否看到了這些情況，或者就中國市場而言現在說還為時過早？

No, I think we're seeing improvements from Q4.

不，我認為我們看到了第四季的進步。

I mean it's early days, but we're optimistic, not only from what we've seen in the month of January but also what the government has announced because we've seen that have a positive impact.

我的意思是，現在還為時過早，但我們很樂觀，不僅從我們一月份看到的情況來看，而且從政府宣布的內容來看，因為我們看到這產生了積極的影響。

And then again, the team there is very focused on cost and improving mix, et cetera.

話又說回來，那裡的團隊非常專注於成本和改進組合等等。

So with the new launches, we see a lot of -- we see opportunity from an industry perspective with the signs we saw in January, and we also have a lot of, I'll say, GM-specific opportunity.

因此，隨著新產品的推出，我們看到了很多——從行業角度來看，我們從一月份看到的跡像中看到了機會，而且我想說，我們也有很多特定於通用汽車的機會。

And so -- and just very finally, I guess, still on China.

所以——我想，最後還是在中國。

So how should we think about your guidance for a modest decline in equity income?

那麼我們該如何看待您對股本收入適度下降的指導呢？

I mean, it seems like you're speaking about Q1 not necessarily any worse than Q4.

我的意思是，你所說的第一季似乎不一定比第四季差。

Then I would assume, beyond that, you sort of have the benefit from some of the new products and then potentially some stabilization in the market.

然後我會假設，除此之外，您還可以從一些新產品中受益，然後市場可能會趨於穩定。

So is it really just -- mathematically, you're lapping some very strong quarters last year?

那麼，從數學上來說，去年你們確實取得了一些非常強勁的季度業績嗎？

Or is there anything else that's sort of like a headwind to expect throughout the year?

或者全年還會有什麼類似逆風的事情發生嗎？

I wouldn't say there's headwinds to expect beyond what we shared at Capital Markets Day.

我不會說除了我們在資本市場日分享的內容之外還會有其他阻力。

I think it's important to note that when we say moderately lower equity income, we're factoring all these in.

我認為值得注意的是，當我們說股本收入適度降低時，我們將所有這些因素都考慮在內。

And it's our intent -- there will be puts and takes in different regions and between North America, China and so on.

這就是我們的意圖——在不同地區以及北美、中國等之間將會有不同的安排。

It's still our intent to post a strong calendar year results from a company perspective.

從公司的角度來看，我們仍然打算發布強勁的日曆年業績。

So I wouldn't overtrain on one versus the other.

所以我不會在其中一種與另一種上過度訓練。

We do expect that, as Mary mentioned, there's company-specific factors that's going to help us.

正如瑪麗所提到的，我們確實希望公司特定的因素能幫助我們。

It is a volatile market at the end of the day.

歸根結底，這是一個動蕩的市場。

I wouldn't get any more specific on that.

我不會對此進行更具體的說明。

Our last question comes from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

Maybe I can attack this cadence on the North American EBIT just in a slightly different way.

也許我可以用稍微不同的方式來攻擊北美息稅前利潤的這種節奏。

I think you guys have been clear that Q1 is the low.

我想你們已經清楚第一季是最低點。

We have production shutdown, the cadence of the cost saves across the year.

我們已經停產，全年都在節省成本。

I think some of the questions investors may have are around in the second half.

我認為投資者可能會遇到的一些問題是在下半年出現的。

Is there any extraordinary cost that we should think about, given the launch of the heavy-duty and the SUVs?

鑑於重型車和 SUV 的推出，我們是否應該考慮任何額外的成本？

Because if not, you would think that sort of cadence leads to sort of Q4 as another peak.

因為如果沒有，你會認為這種節奏會導致第四季成為另一個高峰。

So is there any sort of offsets to the benefits that you've laid out that should get better across the year?

那麼，您所製定的福利是否有任何形式的抵銷措施，而這些福利在今年會變得更好？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think there's any specific launch-related costs or anything we haven't already talked about that's going to weigh on North American results.

我認為沒有任何與發射相關的具體成本或我們尚未討論過的任何事情會影響北美業績。

We had talked about depreciation and pension income going down and commodity headwinds that does impact North America, but that should be even through the whole year, depending on how commodities behave in the next several quarters here.

我們曾討論過折舊和退休金收入下降以及大宗商品逆風確實影響北美，但這種情況應該會持續一整年，具體取決於大宗商品在未來幾季的表現。

But I'd just say, beyond what you talked about on Q1, with the downtime and all the factors that I mentioned that should positively impact the second half of the year, there's nothing that we haven't already discussed.

但我只想說，除了您在第一季談到的內容之外，由於停機時間和我提到的所有因素應該會對下半年產生積極影響，我們沒有什麼還沒有討論過。

Great.

偉大的。

And just one follow-up on, actually, the timing of commodities and tariffs.

實際上，這只是關於大宗商品和關稅的時間表的一項後續行動。

I mean, obviously, the $1 billion, we're still annualizing some of the costs from last year so it would make sense that those hits are greatest in the first half.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們仍在將去年的部分成本按年計算 10 億美元，因此上半年的影響最大是有道理的。

It sort of surprised me a little bit when you talked about some of the spot prices of the quarter being a lag of quarters, and sometimes with hedges, it could be anywhere from 4 to 6 quarters.

當您談到本季的某些現貨價格存在季度滯後時，我有點感到驚訝，有時透過對沖，它可能會滯後 4 到 6 個季度。

Is it possible that if we see these spot levels continue over the first 6 months, that there actually could be some benefit by, let's call it, the end of the year?

如果我們看到這些現貨水準在前 6 個月持續下去，是否有可能在年底（我們稱之為）之前實際上帶來一些好處？

As, obviously, you've had to project out for the full year.

顯然，你必須對全年進行規劃。

Yes.

是的。

The lag that I talked about is in our index commodities.

我談到的滯後是我們的指數商品。

We typically experience a 3-month lag in -- when the actual impact shows up on our income statements versus when the spot prices go up or down.

我們通常會經歷 3 個月的延遲——當實際影響體現在我們的損益表上時，與現貨價格上漲或下跌時相比。

And I would say, it's really difficult to call the specific cadence of it.

我想說的是，很難說出它的具體節奏。

As you well know, this moves up and down every quarter.

眾所周知，這個數字每季都會上下波動。

I'd say, evenly distributed through the entire year.

我想說，在全年均勻分佈。

We're obviously watching the 301 tariffs very closely because that will have an impact.

顯然，我們正在非常密切地關注 301 關稅，因為這會產生影響。

And in the -- within the current market environment, I'd say, you also need to look at the mix of which commodities are going up and down as well.

我想說，在當前的市場環境中，您還需要考慮哪些商品正在上漲和下跌。

So it's difficult to provide any more specificity on a topic that is inherently pretty volatile.

因此，很難對一個本質上非常不穩定的主題提供更多具體資訊。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉給瑪麗·巴拉（Mary Barra），請她發表結束語。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, thanks, everybody, for participating today.

好的，謝謝大家今天的參與。

As we begin the next phase of our transformation, I want you to know that we are committed to continuing to strengthen the core business as well as continue to accelerate our work to lead in the future of personal mobility.

當我們開始下一階段的轉型時，我想讓您知道，我們致力於繼續加強核心業務，並繼續加快我們的工作，引領個人出行的未來。

We are really repositioning this company from one that was trying to be all things to all people in all markets to a very strategic, agile and profitable company.

我們確實正在將這家公司從一家試圖為所有市場的所有人提供一切服務的公司重新定位為一家非常具有戰略意義、敏捷且盈利的公司。

And we believe we're in a very differentiated position than many of the competitors in this industry.

我們相信，與該行業的許多競爭對手相比，我們處於非常獨特的地位。

We are intent on reinventing personal transportation, capitalizing on a trillion-dollar opportunity while making the world safer, better and more sustainable.

我們致力於重塑個人交通，充分利用數兆美元的機遇，同時讓世界更安全、更美好、更永續。

In 2019, we'll continue to deliver on our commitments that we've made to you, our owners, by capitalizing on our strong global vehicle portfolio, our adjacent businesses, and we will stay focused on driving profitable growth across the business to create value in the short term and long term for our shareholders.

2019年，我們將利用我們強大的全球汽車產品組合和相關業務，繼續兌現我們對您（我們的車主）所做的承諾，我們將繼續專注於推動整個業務的盈利增長，創造為我們的股東帶來短期和長期的價值。

This transformation will be very dynamic, and -- but you have our commitment that we'll continue to act with speed, with discipline and with integrity to drive the business performance that we need to win, not only today but in the future.

這種轉變將是非常動態的，而且——但我們承諾，我們將繼續以速度、紀律和誠信的方式採取行動，以推動我們贏得所需的業務績效，不僅是在今天，而且在未來。

So thanks again for your time.

再次感謝您抽出時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。