康寧 (GLW) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Corning Incorporated Quarter 3 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) It is my pleasure to introduce to you Ann Nicholson, Vice President of Investor Relations.

歡迎參加康寧公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明） 我很高興向您介紹投資者關係副總裁 Ann Nicholson。

Thank you, and good morning. and welcome to Corning's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Wendell Weeks, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Ed Schlesinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jeff Evenson, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer.

謝謝你，早安。歡迎參加康寧 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有董事長兼執行長 Wendell Weeks； Ed Schlesinger，執行副總裁兼財務長；執行副總裁兼首席策略長 Jeff Evenson。

I'd like to remind you that today's remarks contain forward-looking statements that fall within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. These factors are detailed in the company's financial reports. You should also note that we'll be discussing our consolidated results using core performance measures, unless we specifically indicate our comments related to GAAP data.

我想提醒您，今天的言論包含符合 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果存在重大差異的因素。這些因素在公司的財務報告中有詳細說明。您還應該注意，除非我們特別指出與 GAAP 數據相關的評論，否則我們將使用核心績效指標來討論我們的綜合結果。

Our core performance measures are non-GAAP measures used by management to analyze the business. Third quarter GAAP EPS reflected restructuring and asset write-off charges, realized gains and unrealized noncash mark-to-market losses on currency hedging contracts and noncash mark-to-market adjustments associated with the company's Japanese yen-denominated debt.

我們的核心績效衡量標準是管理階層用來分析業務的非公認會計原則衡量標準。第三季公認會計準則每股收益反映了重組和資產沖銷費用、貨幣對沖合約的已實現收益和未實現非現金按市值計價損失以及與公司日元計價債務相關的非現金按市值計價調整。

As a reminder, mark-to-market accounting has no impact on our cash flow. A reconciliation of core results to the comparable GAAP value can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at corning.com. You may also access core results on our website with downloadable financials in the Interactive Analyst Center.

提醒一下，以市值計價的會計對我們的現金流量沒有影響。您可以在我們網站 corning.com 的投資者關係部分找到核心績效與可比較 GAAP 值的調節表。您也可以在我們的網站上存取核心結果，並在互動式分析師中心下載財務資料。

Supporting slides are being shown live on our webcast. We encourage you to follow along. They're also available on our website for downloading. And now, I'll turn the call over to Wendell.

支援幻燈片正在我們的網路廣播中直播。我們鼓勵您繼續關注。它們也可以在我們的網站上下載。現在，我將把電話轉給溫德爾。

Thank you, Ann. Good morning, everyone. Today, we reported our third quarter results. As expected, sales were $3.5 billion and EPS was $0.45. Gross margin expanded sequentially to 37%, and free cash flow improved to $466 million. Our results demonstrate solid progress on the programs that we've put in place to increase price and improve productivity while lowering inventory.

謝謝你，安。大家，早安。今天，我們報告了第三季業績。如預期，銷售額為 35 億美元，每股收益為 0.45 美元。毛利率季增至 37%，自由現金流改善至 4.66 億美元。我們的結果表明，我們在降低庫存的同時提高價格和提高生產力的計劃取得了紮實的進展。

These initiatives led to improved gross margin and cash flow in the quarter despite volume coming in at the low end of our expectations in Optical Communications as carriers continue to draw down inventory and in Display Technologies as panel makers lowered utilization at the end of the quarter.

儘管光通訊領域的銷量因運營商繼續減少庫存而處於我們預期的低端，而顯示技術領域的銷量因面板製造商在本季度末降低了利用率，但這些舉措導致了本季度毛利率和現金流的改善。

Now let me share a couple of highlights for the quarter. I'll start with gross margin. We drove an 80 basis point sequential expansion to 37% on consistent sales, driven primarily by our pricing actions in Display.

現在讓我分享本季的一些亮點。我將從毛利率開始。我們在持續銷售的基礎上實現了 80 個基點的環比擴張，達到 37%，這主要是由我們在展示廣告領域的定價行動推動的。

Additionally, if you compare the third quarter of this year to the fourth quarter of last year, when we launched our comprehensive plan, sales are down almost $200 million, yet we've expanded gross margin percent by 340 basis points. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect gross margin to be similar, even with sales down sequentially.

此外，如果將今年第三季與去年第四季進行比較，當我們推出全面計畫時，銷售額下降了近 2 億美元，但我們的毛利率卻提高了 340 個基點。展望第四季度，我們預計即使銷售額環比下降，毛利率也將相似。

Moving to cash generation, free cash flow of $466 million grew sequentially by $156 million and grew year-over-year by $211 million, up 83% on lower sales.

在現金產生方面，自由現金流為 4.66 億美元，環比增長 1.56 億美元，年增 2.11 億美元，由於銷售額下降，增長了 83%。

Our gross margin improvements and our ability to run with lower inventory levels as well as lower CapEx levels are driving these results. Now this all [leads] to significantly improved free cash flow conversion, and we expect to convert profit to cash at a strong rate, going forward.

我們的毛利率提高以及我們以較低的庫存水平和較低的資本支出水平運行的能力正在推動這些結果。現在，這一切[導致]自由現金流轉換顯著改善，我們預計未來將以強勁的速度將利潤轉換為現金。

Overall, our results in the quarter illustrate that we continue to make solid progress to reset our price and cost levels to enable an even stronger profit and cash flow cycle as our market volumes revert to [mean].

總體而言，我們本季的業績表明，我們在重置價格和成本水平方面繼續取得紮實進展，以便隨著我們的市場量恢復到[平均值]，實現更強勁的利潤和現金流週期。

We also continue to demonstrate progress on our more Corning technology efforts. We extended our market leadership by collaborating with Apple to deliver durable glass with infused color, a first for any smartphone, for the back of the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus devices. These devices also feature Ceramic Shield, which we collaborated on with Apple to deliver a cover material, with unparalleled smartphone performance.

我們也繼續展示我們在更多康寧技術方面的進展。我們與 Apple 合作，為 iPhone 15 和 iPhone 15 Plus 設備的背面提供帶有色彩的耐用玻璃，這在智慧型手機中尚屬首次，從而擴大了我們的市場領導地位。這些設備還採用陶瓷屏蔽，這是我們與 Apple 合作提供的覆蓋材料，具有無與倫比的智慧型手機性能。

We also recently announced Corning Viridian Vials. This new technology can improve filling line efficiency by up to 50% while reducing vial manufacturing carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by up to 30%. And just yesterday, we announced an expanded collaboration with long-time customer AUO to accelerate the production of their industry-leading large-format curved automotive display modules using our patented ColdForm technology.

我們最近也推出了 Corning Viridian Vials。這項新技術可將灌裝線效率提高高達 50%，同時將小瓶製造二氧化碳當量排放量減少高達 30%。就在昨天，我們宣布與長期客戶友達光電擴大合作，利用我們的 ColdForm 專利技術加速其業界領先的大幅面曲面汽車顯示模組的生產。

Stepping back, we're on the right track, enhancing profits, improving cash generation and delivering new products that capture more Corning content opportunities, all while maintaining our leading market positions.

退一步來說，我們正走在正確的軌道上，提高利潤，改善現金生成，並提供新產品來捕捉更多康寧內容機會，同時保持我們領先的市場地位。

The area that continues to be problematic is our customer demand, especially the weaker carrier sales in Optical. So although we've hit our guidance to you for 11 consecutive quarters, weak customer demand has put us consistently at the lower end of our sales expectations over the last year, even as we're outperforming on price and productivity plans.

仍然存在問題的領域是我們的客戶需求，尤其是光學營運商銷售疲軟。因此，儘管我們連續 11 個季度達到了給您的指導，但疲軟的客戶需求使我們去年的銷售預期始終處於較低水平，儘管我們在價格和生產力計劃方面表現出色。

More importantly, we are well below the trend line for our operations profile. We have the capacity and the capability to deliver $3 billion-plus in additional sales with minimal additional cash investments. As a result, this revenue will have powerful incrementals as it returns, as long as we keep our capacity and our capabilities vibrant and ready to go.

更重要的是，我們的營運狀況遠低於趨勢線。我們有能力以最少的額外現金投資實現 30 億美元以上的額外銷售額。因此，只要我們保持我們的產能和能力充滿活力並做好準備，這種收入在回歸時就會有強大的增量。

So as we [sat] our operations profile, we ask ourselves two broad questions, will our revenue return? And when? The first question is relatively straightforward to address. We simply ask ourselves, what are the long-term trends in our markets? And where are we now versus those long-term trends? And then, of course, we need to feel confident that we will win in those markets.

因此，當我們[坐在]我們的營運概況時，我們問自己兩個廣泛的問題，我們的收入會回來嗎？什麼時候？第一個問題相對容易解決。我們只需問自己，我們市場的長期趨勢是什麼？與這些長期趨勢相比，我們現在處於什麼位置？當然，我們需要對我們將在這些市場獲勝充滿信心。

Are we the clear market leaders with superior technology offerings, lowest-cost platforms? And are we advancing more Corning opportunities to increase our value capture for the same volume? So first, let's look at the trends in our markets. We build our capacity and capabilities around long-term trends. We then modulate our operations and staffing around current volume run rates. So we must understand where our volume run rates are versus trend at all times. We do this for each of our businesses.

我們是擁有卓越技術產品和最低成本平台的明顯市場領導者嗎？我們是否正在推進更多康寧機會，以增加相同產量的價值捕獲？首先，讓我們看看我們市場的趨勢。我們圍繞長期趨勢建立我們的能力和能力。然後，我們圍繞當前的產量運行率調整我們的營運和人員配置。因此，我們必須始終了解我們的成交量運行率與趨勢的關係。我們為每項業務都這樣做。

Let me give you just one example, optical fiber as a good illustration. Here, you see industry shipments measured in fiber kilometers since the beginning of 2004. The trend line shows a 6.6% compound annual growth rate over the last decade. As you can see, the industry has been operating below trend line in the first half of 2023.

我舉一個例子，光纖就是一個很好的說明。在這裡，您可以看到自 2004 年初以來以光纖公里為單位衡量的行業出貨量。趨勢線顯示過去十年的複合年增長率為 6.6%。正如您所看到的，該行業在 2023 年上半年一直在趨勢線以下運行。

Because industry shipments are reported with at least a quarter or 2 delay, I'm going to switch to our own shipment data so that we can bring you up to real-time, what we saw over the last few quarters and what we're projecting for quarter 4. First thing to notice is the trend line for our shipments has a 7.3% CAGR over the same 10-year period.

由於行業出貨量報告至少有四分之一或兩個延遲，我將切換到我們自己的出貨量數據，以便我們可以為您提供實時的信息，我們在過去幾個季度看到了什麼以及我們正在做什麼預計第四季。首先要注意的是，我們的出貨量趨勢線在同一 10 年期間的複合年增長率為 7.3%。

We've been growing faster than the market. Now this just makes sense with everything we've shared with you about our more Corning strategy. Quarter 1 of 2023 was basically on [track], and our shipments started dropping away from the 7.3% CAGR line in quarter 2 and even more so in quarters 3 and 4. Currently, our shipment run rate is at least 30% below trend line.

我們的成長速度快於市場。現在，這對於我們與您分享的有關我們更多康寧策略的所有內容來說都是有意義的。 2023 年第一季基本上步入正軌，第二季我們的出貨量開始低於7.3% 的複合年增長率線，第三季和第四季更是如此。目前，我們的出貨量至少比趨勢線低30% 。

You can think about the 30% plus gap is carrying through all of our optical revenues. Remember that fiber accounts for only a portion of our sales, we have significant value to our fiber with our cabling and connectivity solutions. So this gap to trend ripples through our entire optical product portfolio. We feel the demand drop in our fiber sales, cable sales and equipment sales.

您可以想像一下，這 30% 以上的差距貫穿了我們所有的光學收入。請記住，光纖僅占我們銷售額的一部分，透過我們的佈線和連接解決方案，我們的光纖具有巨大的價值。因此，這種與趨勢的差距波及到我們整個光學產品組合。我們感受到光纖銷售、光纖銷售和設備銷售的需求下降。

We're confident that we will return to the long-term trend line. We believe that as customers deplete their inventories, the industry and our sales will resume growth. Just returning to trend adds more than 40% to our revenue run rate for Optical Communications.

我們有信心回到長期趨勢線。我們相信，隨著客戶耗盡庫存，產業和我們的銷售將恢復成長。只要回歸趨勢，我們的光通訊收入運行率就增加了 40% 以上。

So that's what we mean when we say we'll revert to mean. And fiber is just one example. We use a similar methodology for key product lines in each of our maps, automotive, display, mobile consumer electronics and life sciences, all of them are showing a gap versus long-term trend lines. Right now, because we're operating well below long-term trend lines, we see an enormous opportunity as our markets revert to mean.

這就是我們說我們會恢復原樣的意思。纖維只是一個例子。我們對每個地圖、汽車、顯示器、行動消費性電子產品和生命科學的關鍵產品線都使用類似的方法，所有這些產品線都顯示出與長期趨勢線的差距。目前，由於我們的營運遠低於長期趨勢線，因此隨著市場恢復正常，我們看到了巨大的機會。

Now as I noted a moment ago, because we anticipate this recovery across our markets, we need to know we'll win as they bounce back. Are we maintaining our leadership position in advancing opportunities to grow faster? In short, yes, we've built a more advantaged position for 80% plus of our revenues over the last few years. We are the technology leader as well as the lowest-cost producer.

現在，正如我剛才指出的那樣，因為我們預計整個市場都會復甦，所以我們需要知道，隨著市場反彈，我們將獲勝。我們是否在推動更快成長的機會方面保持了領先地位？簡而言之，是的，過去幾年我們 80% 以上的收入已經建立了更有利的地位。我們是技術領先者，也是成本最低的生產商。

And we have built more opportunities to capitalize on growth in our markets, increasing our value capture with our more Corning approach. Let's look at a few examples. In Optical Communications, fiber optics remains the ascendant technology, with growing applications in wireless, cloud computing including AI, and government efforts to connect the unconnected.

我們已經創造了更多的機會來利用市場的成長，透過我們更康寧的方法增加我們的價值獲取。讓我們來看幾個例子。在光通訊領域，光纖仍然是方興未艾的技術，在無線、包括人工智慧在內的雲端運算以及政府連接未連接事物方面的應用不斷增長。

Within each of these applications, we have new product innovations that will increase our revenue per installed fiber as those applications grow. We're building on our undisputed global cost and technology leadership position along with our market leadership in North America.

在這些應用中，我們都有新的產品創新，隨著這些應用的成長，每安裝光纖的收入將會增加。我們正在鞏固無可爭議的全球成本和技術領先地位以及北美市場的領先地位。

In automotive, new U.S. EPA regulations go into effect starting in 2027. These new regulations force adoption of gasoline particulate filters. And we are the inventor and clear market leader in GPFs. We expect to see sales as early as 2026. In terms of more Corning, this adds 2 to 3x the content opportunity for ICE vehicles in the U.S. This means significant growth in our environmental business even in the face of global BEV adoption.

在汽車領域，美國 EPA 的新法規將於 2027 年開始生效。這些新法規迫使採用汽油顆粒過濾器。我們是 GPF 的發明者和明顯的市場領導者。我們預計最早會在2026 年看到銷售。就更多康寧而言，這將使美國ICE 車輛的內容機會增加2 到3 倍。這意味著即使在全球採用純電動車的情況下，我們的環保業務也會顯著成長。

In fact, we'll still grow environmental sales up until [BEV adoption] reaches 40% of all vehicles globally. And that is not forecast to happen until the next decade. Keep in mind, we have also built new [revenue] platforms with the successful introduction of our auto glass for interiors, which is being widely adopted in [BEVs] and offers hundreds of millions of dollars of growth opportunity for us.

事實上，我們仍將增加環保銷量，直至 [BEV 採用] 達到全球所有車輛的 40%。預計這種情況要到下一個十年才會發生。請記住，透過成功推出汽車內裝玻璃，我們還建立了新的[收入]平台，正在[純電動車]中廣泛採用，並為我們提供了數億美元的成長機會。

In Display, we have been and continue to be the undisputed leader in technology, quality and cost. Our successful development and capability in Gen 10.5 technology aligns with the continued move to larger-size TVs with the lowest-cost platforms for large displays. We continue to improve productivity, which allows us to free up assets to serve Gorilla Glass, Glass Ceramics and our growing Automotive Glass business.

在顯示領域，我們一直並將繼續成為技術、品質和成本方面無可爭議的領導者。我們在 Gen 10.5 技術方面的成功開發和能力與持續向具有最低成本大型顯示器平台的更大尺寸電視的發展相一致。我們不斷提高生產力，這使我們能夠騰出資產來服務大猩猩玻璃、玻璃陶瓷和不斷增長的汽車玻璃業務。

Finally, we continue to build entirely new product platforms that allow us to enter new categories for growth, examples include pharmaceutical packaging, automotive exterior glass for high-autonomy systems and the rapidly growing opportunity to reassure U.S. solar capacity. In total, this amounts to a $3 billion-plus incremental sales opportunity with minimal cash investment. Taken together, that's why we believe our revenues will recover.

最後，我們繼續建造全新的產品平台，使我們能夠進入新的成長類別，例如藥品包裝、用於高自主系統的汽車外飾玻璃以及確保美國太陽能發電能力的快速增長的機會。總的來說，這相當於以最少的現金投資創造了超過 30 億美元的增量銷售機會。總而言之，這就是我們相信我們的收入將會恢復的原因。

The next question is, when? The answer to this question is less clear. Conventional wisdom is that customer demand in telecom display, semiconductor, smartphones, tablets and notebooks bounces back in the second half of 2024. That seems plausible to us. But rather than trying to predict the timing of the recovery, we'll continue to guide one quarter at a time based on our order entry models until visibility improves.

下一個問題是，什麼時候？這個問題的答案不太清楚。傳統觀點認為，電信顯示器、半導體、智慧型手機、平板電腦和筆記型電腦的客戶需求將在 2024 年下半年反彈。這對我們來說似乎是合理的。但我們不會試圖預測復甦的時間，而是將繼續根據訂單輸入模型一次指導一個季度，直到可見度改善。

We'll continue our programs to improve price, productivity and cost, so that we improve profitability and cash flow despite our muted sales outlook. This serves both the purpose of providing enhanced performance near term and more importantly, providing a better price and cost springboard for profitability as our volume reverts to trend.

儘管銷售前景黯淡，我們仍將繼續實施提高價格、生產力和成本的計劃，從而提高獲利能力和現金流。這不僅是為了在短期內提供增強的性能，更重要的是，隨著我們的銷售恢復趨勢，為盈利能力提供更好的價格和成本跳板。

Simply put, we have the ability to deliver another $3 billion-plus in sales with powerful incrementals and minimal cash investments. This represents such a significant opportunity for our shareholders that will maintain this powerful platform throughout this down cycle, all while we continue to improve our near-term profitability and cash flow. This is how we're steering our way through this period. And I look forward to updating you on our progress.

簡而言之，我們有能力透過強勁的增量和最少的現金投資再實現 30 億美元以上的銷售額。這對我們的股東來說是一個重要的機會，他們將在整個下行週期中維持這個強大的平台，同時我們繼續提高我們的短期獲利能力和現金流。這就是我們度過這段時期的方式。我期待著向您通報我們的最新進展。

Now I'll turn the call over to Ed, so we can get into the details of our results and outlook.

現在我將把電話轉給艾德，以便我們詳細了解我們的結果和前景。

Thank you, Wendell. Good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, our sales were $3.5 billion. Gross margin was 37%, EPS was $0.45, and free cash flow was $466 million. This was in line with our expectations. However, I want to point out that volume in both Optical Communications and Display Technologies was below our expectations, this was offset by strong sales in Specialty Materials.

謝謝你，溫德爾。大家，早安。第三季度，我們的銷售額為 35 億美元。毛利率為 37%，每股盈餘為 0.45 美元，自由現金流為 4.66 億美元。這符合我們的預期。然而，我想指出的是，光通訊和顯示技術的銷量均低於我們的預期，但這被特種材料的強勁銷售所抵消。

Our gross margin was up 80 basis points sequentially on consistent -- on sales consistent with the prior quarter and 340 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2022. Free cash flow was up $156 million sequentially and $211 million year-over-year. The increase in free cash flow was driven by improved profitability and inventory reductions. We also lowered capital expenditures in the quarter. Our improving profitability and cash, despite muted sales, demonstrates execution of our programmatic approach.

我們的毛利率較上季成長 80 個基點，銷售額與上一季一致，較 2022 年第四季成長 340 個基點。自由現金流較上季成長 1.56 億美元，年成長 2.11 億美元。自由現金流的增加是由獲利能力提高和庫存減少所推動的。我們也降低了本季的資本支出。儘管銷售疲軟，但我們的獲利能力和現金不斷提高，這證明了我們程序化方法的執行力。

Let me provide some details on our segment results. In Optical Communications, sales declined 14% sequentially to $918 million, reflecting lower order rates from carriers as they continue to draw down inventory. Net income was $91 million, down sequentially, reflecting lower volumes.

讓我提供有關我們部門業績的一些詳細資訊。在光通訊領域，銷售額環比下降 14% 至 9.18 億美元，反映出營運商繼續減少庫存而導致訂單率下降。淨利潤為 9,100 萬美元，環比下降，反映出銷量下降。

Looking ahead, we are not counting on improvements in our orders over the next 6 months. Longer term, we expect our growth to resume as customers complete the drawdown of their inventory. Additionally, we remain confident that the industry's underlying growth drivers are intact, specifically, broadband, 5G, cloud computing and advanced AI. There are also public infrastructure investments to help connect the unconnected and bring broadband to a much larger share of the U.S. population.

展望未來，我們預計未來 6 個月的訂單量不會有所改善。從長遠來看，我們預計隨著客戶完成庫存消耗，我們的成長將恢復。此外，我們仍然相信該行業的潛在成長動力完好無損，特別是寬頻、5G、雲端運算和先進人工智慧。還有公共基礎設施投資，以幫助連接未連接的人，並將寬頻帶給更多的美國人口。

In Display Technologies, third quarter sales were $972 million, and net income was $242 million. Volume in the quarter was lower than our expectation. Net income grew 16% sequentially, reflecting the progress on our previously announced price increases.

顯示科技部門第三季銷售額為 9.72 億美元，淨利為 2.42 億美元。本季的成交量低於我們的預期。淨利潤環比增長 16%，反映了我們先前宣布的價格上漲的進展。

Here's an update on what we are seeing in the business. In line with what we told you last quarter, we are on track to achieve double-digit price increases at our customers in the second half. The impact of these complicated agreements flow through our financials in both the third and fourth quarters.

以下是我們在業務中看到的最新情況。根據我們上季告訴您的情況，我們預計在下半年實現客戶價格兩位數的成長。這些複雜協議的影響貫穿我們第三季和第四季的財務狀況。

These pricing actions resulted in net income margin of 25% in the third quarter, up 3 percentage points from 22% in the second quarter. On average, our customers are experiencing double-digit price increases, with the majority of the impact in the third quarter. Year-over-year sales and net income were up 42% and 81%, respectively.

這些定價行動導致第三季淨利潤率為 25%，比第二季的 22% 上升了 3 個百分點。平均而言，我們的客戶正在經歷兩位數的價格上漲，其中大部分影響發生在第三季。銷售額和淨利潤分別年增 42% 和 81%。

Panel maker utilization declined as we exited the third quarter. And looking ahead to the fourth quarter, in line with industry reports, we expect panel makers to reduce utilization further from these levels, and we expect the glass market and our volume to be down sequentially as much as low teens.

隨著第三季的結束，面板製造商的利用率下降。展望第四季度，根據行業報告，我們預計面板製造商將進一步降低利用率，我們預計玻璃市場和我們的銷售量將連續下降至兩位數。

Display industry analysts attribute the panel maker utilization decline to a wrestling match between panel makers and set makers over the significant panel price increases during 2023. This dynamic is expected to maintain a healthy supply chain exiting 2023, setting the stage for panel maker utilization to recover in the first half of 2024.

顯示器產業分析師將面板製造商利用率下降歸因於面板製造商和整機製造商之間關於2023 年面板價格大幅上漲的角力。預計這種動態將在2023 年結束時維持健康的供應鏈，為面板製造商利用率的恢復奠定基礎2024年上半年。

However, despite lower sequential volume, we expect to maintain or improve our profitability levels in the fourth quarter as we continue to see the benefits of our pricing actions. For 2024, we expect the pricing environment to remain favorable as we expect glass supply to be balanced to demand as multiple display glass makers have announced capacity reductions earlier this year.

然而，儘管連續銷售量較低，但我們預計第四季度將維持或提高我們的獲利水平，因為我們繼續看到定價行動的好處。 2024 年，我們預計定價環境將保持有利，因為多家顯示器玻璃製造商今年稍早宣布削減產能，預計玻璃供應與需求將保持平衡。

In Specialty Materials, sales in the third quarter were $563 million, up 33% sequentially. The improvement was driven by higher Gorilla Glass sales resulting from customer product launches in the quarter, which helped offset overall end-market softness, and continued solid demand for semiconductor optics drove another strong quarter for Advanced Optics. Net income was $72 million, up sequentially, primarily driven by higher volume and the adoption of premium cover materials.

在特種材料領域，第三季銷售額為 5.63 億美元，比上一季成長 33%。這一改善是由於本季度客戶產品發布帶來的大猩猩玻璃銷量增加所推動的，這有助於抵消終端市場的整體疲軟，而對半導體光學器件的持續強勁需求推動了先進光學器件又一個強勁的季度。淨利潤為 7200 萬美元，環比增長，主要是由於產量增加和優質封面材料的採用。

Moving to Environmental Technologies. Sales in the third quarter were $449 million, up 6% year-over-year, driven by ongoing growth of gasoline particulate filter adoption in China, which offset expected softness in heavy-duty markets in North America. Productivity improvement actions helped net income grow faster than sales to reach $99 million, up 14% year-over-year.

轉向環境技術。第三季銷售額為 4.49 億美元，年增 6%，這得益於中國汽油顆粒過濾器採用率持續成長，抵消了北美重型市場預期的疲軟。生產力改善行動幫助淨利潤成長快於銷售額，達到 9,900 萬美元，較去年同期成長 14%。

In Life Sciences, sales in the third quarter were $230 million, consistent with the second quarter. Sales were down year-over-year, reflecting significantly lower demand for COVID-related products in China and the impact of customers drawing down inventory. Net income increased sequentially to $13 million, driven by productivity improvement actions.

在生命科學領域，第三季銷售額為 2.3 億美元，與第二季持平。銷售額較去年同期下降，反映出中國對新冠病毒相關產品的需求大幅下降以及客戶減少庫存的影響。在生產力提高行動的推動下，淨利潤連續成長至 1,300 萬美元。

Turning to Hemlock and Emerging Growth businesses. Sales in the third quarter were $327 million, down 13% sequentially and 20% year-over-year, reflecting a decline in solar-grade polysilicon prices and lower sales in Pharmaceutical Technologies as we completed the last of our volume commitments for COVID-related products in the second quarter.

轉向鐵杉和新興增長業務。第三季銷售額為 3.27 億美元，季減 13%，年減 20%，反映出太陽能級多晶矽價格下降以及製藥技術銷售額下降，因為我們完成了對新冠病毒相關產品的最後一份銷量承諾第第二季的產品。

We are seeing continued strong demand for our solar-grade polysilicon, which meets the need for a transparent, sustainable and traceable solar supply chain in the U.S. market. As a reminder, we have long-term take-or-pay contracts with our customers that have floor pricing mechanisms built in to help mitigate the impacts of spot market dynamics. Net income was a loss of $8 million, down sequentially, driven by lower sales.

我們看到對我們的太陽能級多晶矽的需求持續強勁，這滿足了美國市場對透明、可持續和可追溯的太陽能供應鏈的需求。提醒一下，我們與客戶簽訂了長期的照付不議合同，其中內置了底價機制，以幫助減輕現貨市場動態的影響。由於銷售額下降，淨利潤環比虧損 800 萬美元。

Now let's turn to our outlook. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales to be approximately $3.25 billion, driven by continued weak demand in Optical Communications, sequentially lower volume in our Display business, reflecting lower panel maker utilization; typical sales patterns in Specialty Materials following significant customer product launches in the third quarter and the possibility that the labor issues in the automotive industry could impact our Automotive business more in the fourth quarter than it did in the third quarter.

現在讓我們來談談我們的展望。我們預期第四季銷售額約 32.5 億美元，因為光通訊需求持續疲軟，顯示業務銷售連續下降，反映出面板製造商利用率較低；在第三季推出重要客戶產品後，特種材料的典型銷售模式以及汽車行業的勞動力問題可能會在第四季度對我們的汽車業務產生比第三季度更大的影響。

We remain focused on our actions to improve profitability and cash flow during this low-volume period. As a result of our continued execution, we expect to deliver another quarter of strong free cash flow and a gross margin percentage similar to the third quarter despite lower sequential sales. We expect EPS of $0.37 to $0.42.

在這個低產量時期，我們仍然專注於提高獲利能力和現金流的行動。由於我們持續執行，儘管連續銷售額較低，但我們預計將在另一個季度實現強勁的自由現金流和與第三季相似的毛利率。我們預計每股收益為 0.37 美元至 0.42 美元。

Before I wrap up, I'd like to reiterate our commitment to strong financial discipline. We're maintaining a strong and efficient balance sheet. For example, we have one of the longest debt tenors in the S&P 500. Our current average debt maturity is approximately 25 years, with only a little more than $1 billion in debt coming due in the next 5 years, and we have no significant debt coming due in any given year.

在結束之前，我想重申我們對嚴格財務紀律的承諾。我們正在維持強大而有效率的資產負債表。例如，我們是標準普爾 500 指數中債務期限最長的公司之一。我們目前的平均債務期限約為 25 年，未來 5 年內到期的債務僅略高於 10 億美元，而且我們沒有重大債務在任何給定年份到期。

Let me leave you with a few final thoughts. In the near term, we will continue our focus on improving profitability and cash flow, despite the muted sales outlook for the quarter. At the same time, we remain well positioned to capture significant additional sales with minimal cash investment. And longer term, we remain confident in our ability to outperform our markets as they recover and to grow beyond prior peak sales run rates with strong incremental leverage.

讓我留下一些最後的想法。短期內，儘管本季銷售前景黯淡，但我們將繼續專注於提高獲利能力和現金流。同時，我們仍然能夠以最少的現金投資獲得大量的額外銷售。從長遠來看，我們仍然相信，隨著市場的復甦，我們有能力超越市場，並透過強大的增量槓桿超越先前的峰值銷售運行率。

I look forward to updating you on our progress. Now, I'll turn things back over to Ann.

我期待向您通報我們的最新進展。現在，我會把事情轉回給安。

Thank you, Ed. Operator, we're ready for the first question.

謝謝你，艾德。接線員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Asiya Merchant with Citi.

（操作員說明） 我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的Asiya Merchant 線路。

If I could just dive a bit on Display, and I apologize to jump on the call later, I had another call at the same time. But if you can just talk to us a little bit about how you kind of see the Display environment improving in the -- as you guys look ahead, not just the fourth quarter, but due to 2024 as well, and how we should think about the margin trajectory there?

如果我能在 Display 上稍微深入一下，並且很抱歉稍後再接電話，那麼我同時又接到了另一個電話。但是，如果您能與我們談談您如何看待顯示環境的改善——你們展望未來，不僅是第四季度，而且是 2024 年，以及我們應該如何考慮邊際軌跡在那裡？

Yes, Asiya, so a couple of things. So first of all, as we talked about our price increases taking effect here in the back half of 2023, so that obviously improves our profitability in this space, and we expect the pricing environment to remain favorable as we go into 2024. We talked about some glass -- some glass makers taking capacity offline, which helps to keep supply and demand in balance.

是的，阿西婭，有幾件事。首先，正如我們所談到的，我們的價格上漲將於 2023 年下半年生效，這明顯提高了我們在這一領域的盈利能力，我們預計進入 2024 年時，定價環境將保持有利。我們談到一些玻璃—一些玻璃製造商關閉了產能，這有助於保持供需平衡。

What we're seeing in -- with respect to volume and panel maker utilization at the end of Q3 and in Q4, we view that as improving as we go into 2024. So we would say that the volume environment improves in 2024, the glass volume environment improves in 2024 as well. Does that answer your question?

我們所看到的- 就第三季度末和第四季度的銷量和麵板製造商利用率而言，我們認為隨著進入2024 年，情況會有所改善。因此，我們會說2024 年銷量環境會有所改善，玻璃2024 年銷售環境也會有所改善。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes. And if I may...

是的。如果可以的話...

Just on the fourth quarter, I know there's been some discussion on panel [maker] utilization coming lower, but I'm not -- I just wanted to reconcile that with your comments that the panel maker utilization will increase as you kind of look ahead.

就在第四季度，我知道有一些關於面板[製造商]利用率下降的討論，但我不是——我只是想將這一點與你的評論相一致，即隨著你對未來的展望，面板製造商的利用率將會增加。

Yes. We think that what's happening in the fourth quarter is a temporary situation as panel makers and set makers work through their pricing environment. As you know, panel prices have increased throughout 2023.

是的。我們認為，第四季度發生的情況只是暫時的情況，因為面板製造商和電視機製造商正在調整其定價環境。如您所知，2023 年面板價格一直在上漲。

That said, we think the inventory levels -- we exit the year with healthy inventory levels, and retail doesn't really have to improve for panel maker utilization to go up at some point in 2024, we think that's relatively early in the year.

也就是說，我們認為庫存水準 - 我們以健康的庫存水準結束今年，零售業並不需要真正改善才能在 2024 年某個時候提高面板製造商的利用率，我們認為這在今年相對較早。

Our next question comes from the line of Martin Yang with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自馬丁楊和奧本海默的對話。

On Display, do you feel that you have achieved what you set out to regarding pricing increase with your customers? And do you expect additional benefits in 4Q from the price -- pricing change relative to 3Q?

在展示廣告上，您是否認為您已經實現了與客戶一起提高價格的目標？您是否預期第四季的價格會帶來額外的好處—相對於第三季的價格變化？

Yes. So we are -- these are super complicated agreements, right? But fundamentally, we're going to exit -- we're going to have double-digit price increases as we flow through this back half. There will be further enhancement as we go into Q4.

是的。所以我們——這些是超級複雜的協議，對嗎？但從根本上講，我們將退出——當我們經歷後半段時，我們將出現兩位數的價格上漲。當我們進入第四季時，將會有進一步的增強。

And all of the dynamic that's going on in our guide is we're also expecting panel maker utilization, which started to lower as we exited quarter 3, we're expecting that to be pretty low through the quarter as sort of panel makers and set makers wrestle around pricing themselves. And so that's going to drive our volume down sequentially in quarter 4, but we feel very good about the reset of the price. And so we will continue to see those benefits in our profitability.

我們的指南中發生的所有動態是，我們也預期面板製造商的利用率，隨著我們退出第三季度，面板製造商的利用率開始下降，我們預計整個季度面板製造商的利用率將相當低，並且設定製造商們都在為自己定價而苦苦掙扎。因此，這將導致我們第四季的銷售連續下降，但我們對價格的重置感到非常滿意。因此，我們將繼續在我們的獲利能力中看到這些好處。

And I have another question relating to Display and Automotive. I think the agreement you have -- our new customers as AUO for ColdForm technology is an interesting one as AUO itself acquired a Tier 1 supplier recently in automotive.

我還有一個與顯示和汽車相關的問題。我認為你們達成的協議——我們作為冷成型技術的新客戶友達光電是一個有趣的協議，因為友達光電最近收購了汽車領域的一家一級供應商。

Maybe can you talk about the cause and effect there, is Corning having a bigger presence in automotive triggered the AUO to do the same or AUO's entry into automotive led to a deeper collaboration between Corning, AUO on Automotive Glass?

能否談談其中的因果關係，是康寧在汽車領域的佈局擴大引發了友達光電的跟進，還是友達進軍汽車領域導致了康寧與友達在汽車玻璃方面的更深層次合作？

Just because of the time cycles involved in materials development of our type of innovations, we start earlier, right? And then to have something novel like ColdForm just takes longer, right? What you're seeing is a lot of our long-term customers in Display are now looking to "How do I apply those technology platforms to new areas?"

僅僅因為我們的創新類型的材料開發涉及時間週期，我們就開始得更早，對吧？然後擁有像 ColdForm 這樣新穎的東西就需要更長的時間，對嗎？您看到的是，我們在顯示領域的許多長期客戶現在都在尋求“如何將這些技術平台應用到新領域？”

And what we've been able to do is help bridge them using our ColdForm technology and the strong access we have with automotive players, right, to be able to bridge those long-time customers to new market opportunities for them, all while they're sort of executing their move forward to add a lot more value to their display tech.

我們能夠做的就是利用我們的 ColdForm 技術以及我們與汽車製造商之間的強大聯繫來幫助他們建立橋樑，能夠為這些長期客戶建立新的市場機會，同時他們「他們正在採取行動，為他們的顯示技術增加更多價值。

I think it's a great example of AUO, (inaudible) is another, right, where some of these Taiwanese-based players as they face the growing competition from the new, big Gen 10.5 plants that we facilitated in China, they're finding good ways to use their capacity and their capabilities to enter the automotive stack.

我認為這是友達光電的一個很好的例子，（聽不清楚）是另一個例子，對吧，其中一些台灣廠商面臨著來自我們在中國推動的新型大型10.5 代工廠日益激烈的競爭，他們發現了良好的競爭優勢。利用他們的能力和能力進入汽車行業的方法。

Our next question comes from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自梅塔·馬歇爾與摩根士丹利的對話。

Maybe a question just on the Optical business, and just whether there's any different trends between kind of your service-provider customers and cloud customers because kind of the 30% cutback in Q4 would be even more extreme, given the offsets of kind of cloud customers staying consistent?

也許只是關於光學業務的問題，以及您的服務供應商客戶和雲端客戶之間是否存在任何不同的趨勢，因為考慮到雲端客戶類型的抵消，第四季度 30% 的削減將更加極端保持一致？

So I just want to get a sense of -- is that trend line even more severe if you were just to take the service providers versus cloud customers?

所以我只是想了解一下——如果你只是將服務提供者與雲端客戶進行對比，那麼趨勢線是否會更加嚴重？

The simplest way to answer that is yes.

回答這個問題最簡單的方法是肯定的。

And so maybe just any trends on the cloud customers would be helpful this quarter.

因此，也許雲端客戶的任何趨勢都會在本季有所幫助。

[30% gap] versus our long-term trend lines, that includes sort of what's going on (technical difficulty) in cloud and so does our run rate, right, and the other apps. So yes, that is giving you -- you have a good understanding that the [gap] in that one area is even more dramatic than the 30% gap we're showing you in total. Is that what you were asking?

[30% 差距] 與我們的長期趨勢線相比，其中包括雲端中正在發生的事情（技術難度），我們的運行率（右）和其他應用程式也是如此。所以，是的，這讓您 — — 您很清楚，該領域的 [差距] 比我們向您展示的 30% 的總差距還要巨大。這就是你問的嗎？

Yes. I mean that is kind of the point, but I guess I'm just trying to get a sense that cloud customers are not pulling back as severely as well. There's nothing we should be noting on the cloud customers as well.

是的。我的意思是，這就是重點，但我想我只是想了解雲端客戶並沒有那麼嚴重地退出。關於雲端客戶，我們也沒有什麼需要注意的。

Not that we're seeing -- now remember, cloud went through their own cycle sort of during the pandemic, right, and then adjusting to what they have to do with their value chains. And they're struggling now -- not struggling, but they are re-aiming, a lot of their CapEx is being aimed to do a large language model training. And that basically adds a second network on the back end, adds even more fiber optic connections.

不是我們所看到的——現在記住，雲端在疫情期間經歷了自己的週期，對吧，然後根據與價值鏈的關係進行調整。他們現在正在苦苦掙扎——不是苦苦掙扎，而是他們正在重新瞄準，他們的大量資本支出都旨在進行大型語言模型訓練。這基本上在後端增加了第二個網絡，增加了更多的光纖連接。

So we've yet to start experiencing the rapid growth that, that represents in our run rate, right? But cloud has been pretty stable.

所以我們還沒有開始經歷我們運行率所代表的快速成長，對吧？但雲一直相當穩定。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt Niknam。

Just one high-level one and then one follow-up on Optical. First, from a high level, I mean, obviously, it sounds like you've got significant conviction in the longer-term outlook. I mean, with that in mind, how do you think about the potential for accelerating share buybacks, given where valuation sits today?

只有一篇高級別文章，然後是一篇關於光學的後續文章。首先，從高層來看，我的意思是，顯然，聽起來您對長期前景抱持堅定的信念。我的意思是，考慮到這一點，考慮到目前的估值水平，您如何看待加速股票回購的潛力？

And then just to go back to Optical, I'm just wondering if you can talk to what sort of visibility you have into next year, particularly as we're sort of in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment? It would seem that although we've seen a 7% CAGR over the last decade, if we are, in fact, in a different rate dynamic, it may actually temper a lot of the enthusiasm relative to what we had seen a couple of years ago from some of your larger service providers. So just curious on any visibility into 2024 there.

然後回到光學，我只是想知道您是否可以談談您對明年的能見度，特別是當我們處於長期較高的利率環境中時？看起來，雖然我們在過去十年中看到了 7% 的複合年增長率，但如果我們實際上處於不同的利率動態中，相對於我們幾年來看到的情況，它實際上可能會削弱很多熱情之前來自一些較大的服務提供者。所以只是好奇 2024 年的狀況。

Matt, this is Ed. I'll take a first question. So first of all, the most important thing for us has been we're focused on improving our profitability and cash flow. Obviously, if we improve our profit, that also improves our cash flow. And I think we've done a nice job of that over the last several quarters. Our cash flow conversion was up nicely in Q2 and Q3, and we expect it to be up again here in Q4. So I think that's -- first things first.

馬特，這是艾德。我先回答第一個問題。因此，首先，對我們來說最重要的是我們專注於提高獲利能力和現金流。顯然，如果我們提高利潤，我們的現金流也會改善。我認為過去幾個季度我們在這方面做得很好。我們的現金流轉換在第二季和第三季取得了很好的成長，我們預計第四季將再次成長。所以我認為這是——首先要做的事情。

And then I think if you remember back earlier this year, we made the last payment to Samsung on the buyback we did back in 2021. So as we go forward, we will certainly have more firepower to do things like share buybacks. We haven't made any announcements, so we'll come back, and we'll talk a little bit more about our plans next year, but I think you should feel good about where we are from a balance sheet and a cash flow perspective.

然後我想，如果你還記得今年早些時候，我們在2021 年的回購中向三星支付了最後一筆款項。因此，隨著我們的前進，我們肯定會有更多的火力來進行股票回購購等事情。我們還沒有發布任何公告，所以我們會回來，我們會更多地談論我們明年的計劃，但我認為你應該從資產負債表和現金流的角度對我們的狀況感到滿意。

Part two, I just want to add a little bit to Ed's answer to Part 1. We get that $3 billion-plus revenue run rate back, our shareholders are going to have a lot of fun. The incrementals on that are going to be really, really stunning.

第二部分，我只想對 Ed 對第一部分的回答補充一點。我們恢復了超過 30 億美元的收入運行率，我們的股東將會享受到很多樂趣。這方面的增量將會非常非常驚人。

And because they don't take much additional cash investment, it's really minimal, right? And because of our operating leverage, we're going to like that, and we're going to have a ton of flexibility to do capital allocation that favors our shareholders. So does that make sense to you, Matt, before I jump to Opto visibility?

而且因為他們不需要太多額外的現金投資，所以這真的很小，對吧？由於我們的營運槓桿，我們會喜歡這一點，並且我們將擁有很大的靈活性來進行有利於股東的資本配置。那麼，在我開始討論光電可見性之前，馬特，這對你來說有意義嗎？

It does, it does.

確實如此，確實如此。

Okay. So Opto visibility, it's a great question. We're in the midst of our a detailed process with each and every one of our major carrier customers, just trying to figure out the answer to just that, right? What exactly are your deployments? What are your deployment plans? Let's roll that forward sort of quarter-by-quarter, detail by detail. Because of the privileged position that we have, they're willing to work with us at that level of detail.

好的。所以光電可見性，這是一個很好的問題。我們正在與每位主要營運商客戶進行詳細的溝通，只是想找出答案，對嗎？您的部署具體是什麼？您的部署計畫是什麼？讓我們逐季、逐一細節地推進這個過程。由於我們擁有的特權地位，他們願意與我們在細節層面上合作。

That is not complete yet. When it's complete, that will improve our visibility in that segment of our revenues. So more to come, I don't have the answer right now, but more to come. As you step back from that, which is really answering the question of when exactly does it return, right? Next year.

這還沒完成。完成後，這將提高我們在該收入領域的知名度。未來還會有更多，我現在還沒有答案，但還會有更多。當你退後一步時，這實際上回答了它何時返回的問題，對吧？明年。

Though will we return to trend? We're highly convicted. You saw what those trend lines are. We showed you over the last 10 years, I can go back 20 years, I can go back 30 years, right? We can keep going back, and you'll see that trend line, right, because basically, that's what you see when you have an ascendant technology.

但我們會回歸趨勢嗎？我們已經被定罪了。您看到了那些趨勢線是什麼。我們向你展示了過去10年，我可以回到20年，我可以回到30年，對吧？我們可以繼續回顧，你會看到趨勢線，對吧，因為基本上，當你擁有上升的技術時，你會看到這一點。

We just keep entering markets with [S-curves] as fiber optics becomes the more economical way, as photons become more economical than electrons, as bandwidth distance, economics change. And as more bandwidth goes up over shorter distances, basically more fiber goes in. And that's why you see those type of long-term technology trend line.

隨著光纖變得更經濟，隨著光子變得比電子更經濟，隨著頻寬距離和經濟性的變化，我們不斷以[S曲線]進入市場。隨著更多的頻寬在更短的距離上增加，基本上會有更多的光纖進入。這就是為什麼你會看到這些類型的長期技術趨勢線。

So will it return to trend? Absolutely. We're seeing optics actually enter strongly markets that hasn't been before, right? And we're [playing] in like wireless, and we're seeing new applications like generative AI, which you need more fiber optic connections, right, for a given sort of compute power. So we feel good about the long-term trends. When? We're still working on it, Matt.

那麼它會回歸趨勢嗎？絕對地。我們看到光學器件實際上正在強勢進入前所未有的市場，對吧？我們正在像無線一樣進行遊戲，我們看到了像生成人工智慧這樣的新應用，對於給定的運算能力，你需要更多的光纖連接，對吧。所以我們對長期趨勢感覺良好。什麼時候？我們仍在努力，馬特。

Our next question comes from the line of Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自瓦姆西·莫漢 (Wamsi Mohan) 與美國銀行的聯繫。

Wendell, appreciate the charts and your comments on long-term trends in Optical, but you're calling out inventory digestion right now across cloud. And so clearly, that implies there was an inventory buildup. So your trend lines through 1Q '23 embed some over shipment as well, and I understand that's true even in historical cycles.

Wendell，很欣賞這些圖表和您對光學行業長期趨勢的評論，但您現在正在呼籲通過雲來消化庫存。很明顯，這意味著庫存增加。因此，截至 23 年第一季的趨勢線也包含了一些超額發貨，我知道即使在歷史週期中也是如此。

But why do you think that the mean reversion wouldn't mean a lower steady-state level, for instance, I think in the PC market as an analogy? People thought $250 million was sustainably going to $300 million, to $350 million, and now we're back to $250 million and growing at low singles.

但為什麼你認為均值回歸並不意味著較低的穩態水平，例如，我認為以個人電腦市場為例？人們認為 2.5 億美元會持續上升到 3 億美元、3.5 億美元，而現在我們又回到了 2.5 億美元，並且以較低的單曲率成長。

So I'm just kind of curious as to whether you think that there is a reset that happens to a lower level, given perhaps overbuild over a longer period of time? And I have a follow-up.

所以我只是好奇你是否認為較低的水平會發生重置，因為可能會在較長時間內過度建設？我有一個後續行動。

Okay. So first, where we're seeing the inventory drawdown right now is primarily the carriers. I think you said cloud, but I think it's just misspoke. It's in carriers where we're seeing the drawdown occur, okay? Cloud is operating now more in [balance]. Does that make sense to you?

好的。首先，我們現在看到庫存減少的主要是承運商。我認為你說的是雲，但我認為這只是說錯了。我們看到的是運營商出現了縮編，好嗎？雲端現在更多地在[平衡]中運行。這對你來說有意義嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Good. So what drives those trend lines is you're right, you would see that through the industry, it dipped above the line in 2022, and then you're seeing that adjustment below the line now, right? And you'll see that throughout the entire time cycle, and you're just looking at the fit against that, that gives you the CAGR.

好的。好的。那麼驅動這些趨勢線的因素是，你是對的，你會看到整個產業在 2022 年跌至趨勢線上方，然後你現在看到調整低於趨勢線，對嗎？你會在整個時間週期中看到這一點，你只需考慮與之相對應的情況，這就會為你帶來複合年增長率。

And what actually makes up that will always be sort of slightly different pieces of the network, all will be being built out at one point in time or another. We don't see anything that is reducing the application space for fiber. Everything we're seeing is increasing the application space for fiber. And that's just because rates, right, so I think line rates, of how much bandwidth you need is going up.

實際上，網路的組成部分總是略有不同，所有這些都將在某個時間點或另一個時間點建置。我們沒有看到任何東西會減少光纖的應用空間。我們所看到的一切都在增加光纖的應用空間。這只是因為速率，對吧，所以我認為線路速率，即您需要多少頻寬正在上升。

And that's across even short distances in places like hyperscale cloud, right? And because of that, you're seeing, from a technology perspective, links which used to be copper or low fiber count, okay, become high fiber count all optical.

在超大規模雲等地方，這甚至可以跨越很短的距離，對吧？正因為如此，從技術角度來看，過去是銅纜或低光纖數的鏈路變成了高光纖數的全光纖鏈路。

And even going down to now our latest technology work, you see glass, packaging, right, to be able to get right from the [ASIC] to optics as fast as possible, mainly because that's the most economical way to handle that communications to get to photons as quick as possible. And we see this in market after market.

甚至到了現在我們最新的技術工作，你會看到玻璃、封裝，對吧，能夠盡快從 [ASIC] 到光學器件，主要是因為這是處理通信的最經濟的方式來獲得盡可能快地到達光子。我們在一個又一個的市場中都看到了這一點。

So I don't see a collapsing market opportunity, I see a growing market opportunity, and that's what drives those long-term CAGRs. So I would -- that's how we think about it.

因此，我沒有看到市場機會崩潰，而是看到了不斷增長的市場機會，這就是推動長期複合年增長率的原因。所以我會——這就是我們的想法。

To your notebooks and PCs, I mean that's an interesting analogy. We could have done that market here because we track that. Our CAGRs, right, would have had that surge up, but we would have integrated -- the decades of experience we have in notebooks would have taken our forward projection rather than the -- [what] it did, rather than the towards long term at 300 [base increase, 350].

對於筆記型電腦和個人電腦，我的意思是這是一個有趣的類比。我們本來可以在這裡做這個市場，因為我們跟踪它。我們的複合年增長率（CAGR），對，本來會大幅上升，但我們會整合——我們在筆記型電腦方面數十年的經驗將採取我們的前瞻性預測，而不是——它做了什麼，而非長期預測300 [基礎增加，350]。

We would have been -- because of the way these trend lines work, we would have been well below because you don't have enough cumulative time at that 300 level, the 350 level to offset all that time that you've had well below that. Does that make sense to you?

我們本來會——由於這些趨勢線的運作方式，我們會遠低於，因為你沒有足夠的累積時間在 300 水平、350 水平來抵消你在遠低於該水平的所有時間那。這對你來說有意義嗎？

Yes, yes, it does, Wendell. I appreciate the color. I guess as a follow-up in the spirit of looking at the long term here...

是的，是的，確實如此，溫德爾。我很欣賞它的顏色。我想作為本著著眼長遠的精神的後續行動......

Please do.

請這樣做。

On the yen, if you look beyond 2024, can you give us some sense of how much exposure is hedged and at what level, given that we're back at sort of the 150 level again? And just curious, if you could give out some color on sort of maybe just beyond '24, looking at '25, '26, what percent and at what level you might be hedged at?

關於日元，如果你展望 2024 年之後的情況，考慮到我們再次回到 150 的水平，你能否告訴我們有多少風險敞口被對沖以及在什麼水平？只是好奇，如果你能給出一些關於 24 年之後的顏色，看看 25 年、26 年，你可能會被對沖的百分比和水平是多少？

So right now -- and I think did last quarter or maybe the quarter before, we're hedged through the end of next year, right? And beyond that, right, we have -- we don't have a significant amount of hedge in that time period. Ed, would you like to add?

所以現在 - 我認為上個季度或前一個季度是這樣，我們在明年年底之前進行對沖，對吧？除此之外，我們在那個時期沒有大量的對沖。艾德，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes. Two other things, Wamsi, that I would add: One, we recently raised price in Display. That's one way for us to address the yen. We're going to certainly readdress that or rethink about that as we go into 2024. And then secondly, given the large differential in interest rates between Japan and the United States, there's a pretty steep forward curve on the yen. So if you go out a year, it's about JPY 6. So you go out another year, it's about JPY 12 and so on.

是的。 Wamsi，我要補充兩件事：第一，我們最近提高了 Display 的價格。這是我們解決日圓問題的一種方式。進入 2024 年，我們肯定會重新解決或重新考慮這個問題。其次，考慮到日本和美國之間的巨大利率差異，日圓的遠期曲線相當陡峭。所以如果你出去一年，大約是 6 日元。所以你再出去一年，大約是 12 日元，依此類推。

So just as you think about the rate that's out there, it's not the 150, it's really the forward rate that matters to us because we could actually hedge at that rate right now. So the average over the next 5 years is below 130 versus if you think about the rate yen in total being at 150, I just wanted to point that out.

因此，正如您考慮現有的利率一樣，對我們來說重要的不是 150，而是遠期利率，因為我們現在實際上可以以該利率進行對沖。因此，未來 5 年的平均匯率低於 130，而如果考慮日圓總匯率為 150，我只是想指出這一點。

So that gives you an idea of the sort of ceiling on our exposure is what would be the average rate sort of post '24 if we reestablish long-term hedging programs. And what we're trying to do is sort of balance to see -- we believe that there will be an opportunity because of the way in which the currency markets work to be able to put in place more long-term hedges at rates we like.

因此，這讓您了解如果我們重新建立長期對沖計劃，我們的風險敞口上限是 24 年後的平均利率。我們正在嘗試做的是一種平衡——我們相信，由於貨幣市場的運作方式，將有機會以我們喜歡的利率實施更多長期對沖。

If that doesn't happen, we will institute an industrial fix, meaning price increase, so that we maintain strong returns in this business for our shareholders. And that's the way we tend to think of it. It will either solve relatively easily in the currency markets in the time frame or will -- to an industrial solution, the first step of which you just saw this year.

如果這種情況沒有發生，我們將實施工業修復，這意味著價格上漲，以便我們為股東維持這項業務的強勁回報。這就是我們傾向於思考的方式。它要么會在一定時間內相對容易地在貨幣市場上解決，要么會成為工業解決方案，這是您今年剛剛看到的第一步。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fox with Fox Advisors.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Fox Advisors 的 Steven Fox。

Wendell, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about some of the comments you made around the new revenue platforms and also some of the cyclicality in the business from two aspects. One, it seems like thinking about your comments that as you've instituted more technology, more value added into some of your served markets, you've created more cyclicality as well. I wonder if you would agree with that?

Wendell，我想知道您是否可以從兩個方面多談談您對新收入平台的一些評論以及業務的一些週期性。第一，似乎考慮一下您的評論，隨著您在所服務的一些市場中引入更多技術和更多附加價值，您也創造了更多週期性。不知你同意嗎？

And then secondly, from my perspective, it seems like the $3 billion has somewhat disappointed over the last few years and -- especially as you think about how dynamics are changing maybe around demand for some of your COVID products, et cetera. Is it time to maybe look at that $3 billion? And even though it has a lot of leverage, maybe pair back some of those products or see if they're better off in other places or with other companies?

其次，從我的角度來看，這 30 億美元似乎在過去幾年中有些令人失望，尤其是當你考慮到一些新冠病毒產品的需求動態如何變化時，等等。是時候看看這 30 億美元了嗎？即使它有很大的影響力，也許可以將其中一些產品配對，或者看看它們在其他地方或與其他公司合作是否會更好？

Steve, I think that's a really good question. First, I want to make sure we're clear, and we'll follow up with you more. For us, the huge bulk of that $3 billion is not in new platforms, okay? That's just in like fiber optics and some of the new products in it, regaining 40% growth to trend line. It's just like Display getting back to trend line. It's Automotive getting back to trend line.

史蒂夫，我認為這是一個非常好的問題。首先，我想確保我們清楚，我們會進一步跟進您。對我們來說，這 30 億美元中的很大一部分不是在新平台上，好嗎？這就像光纖及其中的一些新產品一樣，恢復了 40% 的成長至趨勢線。就像 Display 回到趨勢線一樣。汽車產業正在回到趨勢線。

So it's the products you know and love, Steven, right, that you've been driving through your models for a long time, right? That is the stuff that is well below trend, and that is the lion's share of the $3 billion, right? So the new platforms, of which you speak, are a pretty small amount, right, of that gainer, right?

所以這是你了解和喜愛的產品，史蒂文，對吧，你已經在你的模型中駕駛了很長時間，對吧？這是遠低於趨勢的東西，也是 30 億美元中的最大份額，對吧？因此，您所說的新平台只是該贏家的一小部分，對吧？

And for those, I think what we do is, as we've learned different things, we change our profile. So whether it's a pharmaceutical packaging, where we pivoted everything to serve COVID because we thought that's what was good for the world, right?

對於這些，我認為我們所做的是，隨著我們學到了不同的東西，我們改變了我們的形象。那麼，無論是藥品包裝，我們都將一切轉向為新冠病毒服務，因為我們認為這對世界有利，對嗎？

Government funded a [free] plan for our shareholders, fine, right? Our customers signed up to long-term take-or-pays, which we just completed sort of that take-or-pay process in quarter 2 for some of those things we signed up for to help deliver those life-saving vaccines. And then we're saying, "Okay, so what do we pivot towards now?" And then we go to "What's an asset-light strategy there?"

政府為我們的股東提供[免費]計劃資助，很好，對吧？我們的客戶簽署了長期的「照付不議」協議，我們剛剛在第二季完成了「照付不議」流程，我們簽署了一些協議，以幫助提供拯救生命的疫苗。然後我們說：“好吧，那麼我們現在要轉向什麼？”然後我們討論“什麼是輕資產策略？”

And that's why we're opening up the technology stack and being able to enable other players in the industry, some of our competitors or some people like West, right, to sort of use our tech. And then we return to our shareholders through a variety of mechanisms, everything from sort of licensing to go-to-market models that end up with us still capturing.

這就是為什麼我們開放技術堆棧，並能夠讓行業中的其他參與者、我們的一些競爭對手或像韋斯特這樣的人使用我們的技術。然後我們透過各種機制回報股東，從許可到進入市場模式，最終我們仍然佔優勢。

So we'll do that in each of these. We're always adjusting to what we see as the opportunity. Without doubt, as we go through this down cycle on revenues, it's significantly increases the skepticism, which we bring to new opportunities, right?

所以我們將在每一個方面都這樣做。我們總是根據我們認為的機會進行調整。毫無疑問，當我們經歷這個收入下降週期時，人們的懷疑會大大增加，這為我們帶來了新的機會，對嗎？

So I think in that way, your concept is right, and we'll do that. But I think the thing where we're going to need to flush out for you more is it's not those areas, it's the $3 billion. It's just -- that's just getting back to run rate. We've demonstrated on products that people consume every day, okay? That makes sense to you, Steve?

所以我認為從這個角度來說，你的想法是對的，我們會這麼做。但我認為我們需要為你們提供更多資金的不是這些領域，而是 30 億美元。只是——這只是回到運行速度。我們已經在人們每天消費的產品上進行了演示，好嗎？這對你來說有意義嗎，史蒂夫？

Yes, it does. You answered everything except for the one question on just sort of the cyclicality of the business now.

是的，它確實。除了關於目前業務週期性的一個問題之外，您回答了所有問題。

I started to think about that the moment you said it. It's super interesting because like -- let's (inaudible). Given that we're adding so much more value now for fiber tip than we did, right, so therefore, when they go down, we -- when we lose a fiber tip now, it causes more revenue falloff than it used to when we were just a fiber maker. I think that's true.

你一說我就開始思考這個問題了。這非常有趣，因為就像——讓我們（聽不清楚）。鑑於我們現在為光纖尖端增加的價值比以前多得多，對吧，因此，當它們下降時，我們現在失去光纖尖端時，會導致比以前更多的收入下降我們只是一家纖維製造商。我認為這是真的。

At the same time, the baseline is bigger, right? So I don't know if it increases cyclicality. Let me think about that mathematically myself or Jeff, and you've got me curious. Let me do a little bit of quantitative work, and we'll get back to you, Steven.

同時，基線更大，對嗎？所以我不知道它是否會增加週期性。讓我自己或傑夫從數學角度思考這個問題，你讓我很好奇。讓我做一些定量工作，然後我們會回覆你，史蒂文。

And one other quick thing to add on this, Steven, because one -- as you know, what we've done to try to fix volatility of technology substitution curves is, we take and spread across multiple markets our 3 core technologies and our 4 manufacturing engineering platforms.

史蒂文，對此要補充的另一件事是，因為正如你所知，我們為解決技術替代曲線的波動性所做的努力是，我們將我們的3 項核心技術和4 項核心技術傳播到多個市場。製造工程平台。

In that way, it sort of any given point in time, markets that don't move together, right, think like people don't consume smartphones related to their COVID-19 vaccination rates, right, they don't move together or cell and gene therapy doesn't move with buying large-size televisions, right? So even though they use some of those same core technologies we have. And one of the things, so we get a balancing effect to offset some of that cyclicality and volatility.

這樣，在任何給定的時間點，市場不會一起移動，對吧，就像人們不消費與他們的 COVID-19 疫苗接種率相關的智慧型手機一樣，對吧，他們不會一起移動或移動基因療程不會隨著購買大尺寸電視而改變，對嗎？因此，儘管他們使用了我們擁有的一些相同的核心技術。其中之一是，我們得到了平衡效應來抵消一些週期性和波動性。

What happened during COVID -- so in general, if you were to look at over time what we've built is if you think about correlation as being like negative 1 be negatively correlated, 0 would be not correlated at all and 1 being highly correlated, you move the same direction, we've gotten our correlation to be down to like, I don't know, [1 7] or so. So really relatively uncorrelated, which helps with that volatility.

新冠疫情期間發生的事情——所以總的來說，如果你隨著時間的推移觀察我們所建立的結果，如果你認為相關性是負的，1 就是負相關，0 根本不相關，1 就是高度相關，你朝同一個方向移動，我們的相關性下降到，我不知道，[1 7]左右。所以確實相對不相關，這有助於緩解波動性。

Then what happened in the pandemic, as the pandemic sort of forced correlated a bunch of our markets that, for different reasons, it don't have a lot to do with each other and our correlation levels started to get to like 0.7, right, so highly correlated. And so that is -- so we're seeing our markets which should be diversification effects before it's correlated by the pandemic and what's happened after.

然後在大流行中發生了什麼，因為大流行迫使我們的一些市場相互關聯，由於不同的原因，它們之間沒有太大關係，我們的相關水平開始達到 0.7 左右，對吧，如此高度相關。所以，我們看到我們的市場在與疫情和之後發生的事情相關之前應該是多元化的。

The good news here is we're starting to see them get non-correlated again, so we're starting to see that go back to historical patterns. Now if you ask me which one I would choose, reverting to mean on the absolute level of revenues or reverting to mean on our level of diversification, I choose more revenue. But we're already seeing the progress on sort of what should be our long-term effects of dampening of volatility.

好消息是我們開始看到它們再次變得不相關，所以我們開始看到它們回到了歷史模式。現在，如果你問我會選擇哪一個，回歸到絕對收入水準的平均值或回歸到我們多元化水準的平均值，我會選擇更多的收入。但我們已經看到了抑制波動的長期影響方面的進展。

That was more than you wanted to know, isn't it?

這比你想知道的還要多，不是嗎？

No, that's really interesting. That gave me food for thought, too. I appreciate it.

不，這真的很有趣。這也給了我深思。我很感激。

Thanks, Steve. We'll take one more question.

謝謝，史蒂夫。我們再問一個問題。

Our last question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

So just as you think about your, I guess, pent-up revenue potential here, that $3 billion, depending on when that comes back, maybe it's 1 to 3 years, depending on kind of how strong or weak the macro is, how do you think about your capital investment in light of that you need to invest as much as you have over the last few years? Or is this a chance for you to step back on that and let markets tighten before you...

因此，正如您想到這裡被壓抑的收入潛力一樣，30 億美元，取決於何時回來，也許是 1 到 3 年，取決於宏觀經濟的強弱程度，如何您考慮您的資本投資是否需要與過去幾年一樣多的投資？或者這是你放棄這一點並讓市場在你面前收緊的機會...

Ed can go after me, right? That's why we use the term minimal cash investment, right? We've got in place the capabilities and the capacity we need to support that 3, right? So we do believe that you should see very muted CapEx and very high free cash flow conversion. But Ed, why don't you add?

艾德可以追我，對嗎？這就是我們使用“最低現金投資”一詞的原因，對吧？我們已經具備了支持這 3 個目標所需的能力和容量，對嗎？因此，我們確實相信您應該看到非常溫和的資本支出和非常高的自由現金流轉換。但是艾德，你為什麼不加上呢？

Yes, I would agree, and I would say you're starting to see our capital spending coming down right now, you'll continue to see that come down as we go through the fourth quarter and into next year as we finish up some of the things that we've been working on.

是的，我同意，我想說，你現在開始看到我們的資本支出下降，隨著我們完成第四季度和明年的一些工作，你將繼續看到資本支出下降。我們一直在努力的事情。

So I agree with Wendell that we can support that. And if there's something new that's not in that or something beyond that, we'll talk about it with you all with respect to capital. But I think you can think of our conversion as being better than it has been over the last period of time, a couple of years.

所以我同意溫德爾的觀點，我們可以支持這一點。如果有一些新的東西不在此列或超出此範圍，我們將與大家討論資本方面的問題。但我認為你可以認為我們的轉變比過去幾年更好。

And what we're -- you're looking at here is -- again, it's very unusual, which is sort of weird cycle with the pandemic and post-pandemic times, is I can't think of a time, right, where we had the opportunity to generate as much revenue with capability sets that we've got ready to go in such a fast time period.

我們——你在這裡看到的是——再次，這是非常不尋常的，這是大流行和大流行後時代的一種奇怪的循環，我想不出一個時間，對吧，在哪裡我們有機會利用我們已經準備好的能力集在如此短的時間內創造盡可能多的收入。

I mean it's -- so the incrementals here, they are a lot of set new records for us. That's what we're going to be seeking to do. And that's the balance we're seeking to strike as we adjust to the run rate of today. We want to maintain that opportunity because the power of that to create value for our shareholders is really, really powerful and interesting.

我的意思是，這裡的增量為我們創造了許多新記錄。這就是我們要尋求要做的事。這就是我們在調整當前運轉速度時尋求達到的平衡。我們希望保留這個機會，因為它為我們的股東創造價值的力量確實非常強大且有趣。

Thank you, Josh. I'll wrap up for today. Thank you for joining us. Before we close, I wanted to let everyone know that we'll be attending the UBS Technology Conference on November 28. Thank you, Josh.

謝謝你，喬許。我今天就總結一下吧。感謝您加入我們。在結束之前，我想讓大家知道我們將參加 11 月 28 日舉行的 UBS 技術會議。謝謝你，喬許。

Additionally, we'll host management visits to investor offices in select cities. And finally, a web replay of today's call will be available on our site starting later this morning. Once again, thank you all for joining us. Operator, that concludes our call. You can disconnect all lines.

此外，我們還將組織管理層對選定城市的投資者辦公室進行訪問。最後，今天上午晚些時候，我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的網路重播。再次感謝大家加入我們。接線員，我們的通話到此結束。您可以斷開所有線路。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。