Golar LNG Ltd (GLNG) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Brian Tienzo - CFO

  • Hello everyone, and welcome to Golar Energy's fourth-quarter results presentation.

  • My name is Brian Tienzo and I will be taking you through our financial results shortly.

  • Our CEO, Doug Arnell, will then take over and he will talk you through both the business update and our Company outlook.

  • Let's now turn to Page 4 to go through the Q4 highlights.

  • So Golar LNG reports Q4 2011 consolidated operating income of $33.8 million and net income of $17.2 million.

  • The operating income has obviously been helped by Gimi's fourth-quarter contribution in Q4 but hampered slightly by high operational costs during the quarter.

  • Our net income for the year and for the quarter is obviously much improved from 2010, because of the improved utilization in rates experienced during the year.

  • We are pleased to announce an increase in our cash dividend to $0.325 for the fourth-quarter results.

  • That should reflect the bullish outlook that the Board and the Company see as the potential within the markets.

  • We signed a three-year charter for Golar Arctic during the quarter with annualized EBITDA of about $45 million.

  • That charter will start in the second quarter and should improve the EBITDA number for Golar going forward.

  • Of course, we also signed a grant charter during the fourth quarter and similarly that should improve our EBITDA for the second quarter and onwards.

  • Furthermore, we signed two firm contracts for additional LNG carriers with Hyundai, both of which will be delivered in 2014.

  • Again, this supports our claim that we aim to be one of the largest independent ship owners in the world.

  • During the quarter in early January, we purchased the remaining 50% interest in Gandria and immediately proceeded to reactivate the vessel.

  • The price of the vessel at $19.5 million we found is very attractive, given the tight tonnage availability at the moment.

  • Furthermore, we've taken the decision to take Hilli out of lay-up and is now being reactivated.

  • Hilli will become available for revenue contribution from the second quarter onwards.

  • We saw continued tightening of LNG ships -- markets during the quarter.

  • Spot rates increased from $110,000 a day to [$125,000] a day promoting steam vessels and the Arctic's charter that we signed recently is a demonstration of this.

  • We see multiple proposals for conversion (inaudible) FSRU charters of which we continue to bid into those projects.

  • There are ongoing discussions for further term business for existing and new build carriers and those are progressing well.

  • If you now turn to Page 5, we'll go through the financial highlights.

  • So our net operating revenues in Q4 is an improvement from Q3 level of $77.4 million.

  • Of course, Gimi was contributing revenue throughout Q4 2011.

  • Further increases in rates going forward from the second quarter onwards is expected and therefore revenues will improve significantly.

  • EBITDA for the quarter is slightly lower than Q3.

  • It's been negatively impacted by slightly higher operating costs, mainly because of Gimi's reactivation costs, but Gimi's contribution during its charter should be sufficient to offset the costs incurred for its reactivation.

  • Of the operating costs, although Gimi was there to offset some of the savings, we further saw savings, as we mentioned, in the third quarter that we would demonstratably look at looking to lower our costs.

  • We saw savings in other areas of our operations.

  • Net financial expenses for the quarter is a very much improved number of $5.6 million compared to Q3 of $24.9 million.

  • This is because, during Q4, we saw an increase in LIBOR which although increased our net interest expense slightly, the increase in swap rates by the end of the quarter reversed the mark-to-market losses we saw in Q3.

  • This has resulted to a net income for the quarter of $17.2 million compared to $13.7 million in Q3.

  • Towards the bottom of the page, you'll see that our time charter equivalents for Q4 2011 has come down slightly to $86,521 per day from $91,614 per day simply because of Gimi's full contribution for the quarter, but again Gimi's full contribution during its charter will be sufficient to cover the reactivation costs incurred in the vessel.

  • The bottom line there, the utilization rate is obviously improved from Q3 to now 100%.

  • We expect similar levels of utilization going forward as our vessels go into medium charters.

  • Let's now turn to Page 6 to go through our EBITDA record.

  • So we see an ever-improving EBITDA from Q4 2010, and a slight blip in Q4 2011 as a result of high operating costs in respect of Gimi's reactivation.

  • There is also slight increase in G&A costs for the quarter.

  • Having said that, with the Arctic and Grand charters commencing in the second quarter at a very much better rate, as well as Gimi, Hilli and Gandria's and (inaudible) contribution going forward, we expect EBITDA and net income numbers to improve further.

  • Let's now go to Page 7 to quickly go through the balance sheet items.

  • On the asset side, there isn't really that much movement both in short-term and long-term assets.

  • The point to know there is cash and cash equivalents has come down from our third-quarter level of $115 million to now just above $66 million.

  • The main reason for that mainly is due to the Khannur conversion which is progressing well.

  • That is reflected towards the bottom half of the assets under vessels and equipment.

  • The main increase there also as a result of the conversion for Khannur.

  • Now turn to Page 8 to go through our main liabilities.

  • The item that's been highlighted there is our long-term liability.

  • Actually this should show that both long-term debt and long-term debt related (inaudible) are amalgamated or aggregated, so both of those will add to $707 million.

  • That is a very slight decrease from Q3 balance sheet.

  • I'd just like to spend a little bit of time going through our strategy for financing our new build program.

  • Of course, to date, we have 11 new buildings on order for deliveries in 2013 and 2014.

  • We achieve very good payment terms for our new buildings with the majority of the costs on delivery.

  • Regardless, by any stretch of imagination, the numbers are pretty compelling.

  • We had a total cost of approximately $2.3 million to cover, but we are confident that, given the current market situation and the record of achieving good returns for our vessels, that we will be able to finance those in due course.

  • So to date, the strategies we have seen and we will put into place as far as financing the immediately outstanding items on the new build program, we obviously went through a successful IPO last year in 2011.

  • As a result of that, that essentially covered the initial phases of installments as we're starting the initial number of new buildings.

  • We also expect to get $222 million from the Freeze dropdown that is currently owed to us by Golar LNG Partners, and that is due as and when the second dropdown or earlier is effective.

  • Going into 2012, we of course expect the Khannur dropdown to happen at some point potentially during second quarter, the second half of this year, at which point we will be able to monetize the funds required by LNG Ltd.

  • to cover the majority of the equity portion of the new building program.

  • Going forward, we have other sources of financing our vessels, of course making use of the very efficient capital structure that we now have.

  • We will look to do other dropdowns and given the feedstock that we have available at Golar LNG Ltd., that should become demonstratively so as we go into 2012.

  • Furthermore, given the debt level of Golar LNG Ltd.

  • and the current status of LNG shipping, the debt market is open to us with various banks very much interested in looking to get involved in LNG shipping.

  • Similarly, our stock performance has been very well received over the past year, and so the bond market is also open to Golar, which will allow us to achieve good coupon on those rates and potentially very good premiums as well.

  • Finally, of course and, again, given the very good (technical difficulty) of Golar, there is always the possibility of equity raising, but of course, as I said, that is one of the three options potentially we have in making sure that we meet our new build obligations.

  • I will now hand you over to Doug Arnell, our CEO, to go through our Group structure and the business highlights.

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • Thank you Brian.

  • Good afternoon and good morning to everybody.

  • I guess I'd first like to say that I think it's fair to say that Golar LNG has had another very good quarter.

  • We achieved 100% utilization on our vessels, which is excellent.

  • We've also taken several steps, multiple steps, with the portfolio of active vessels and adding to the portfolio in order to capitalize on what is still a very positive outlook for the LNG industry.

  • I'm going to start with Slide 10, which is a familiar slide to some, but it's central to our business strategy that we remind everybody about our Group structure and its importance.

  • There's two principle entities in our Group structure, Golar LNG Ltd.

  • and Golar LNG Partners.

  • Golar LNG Ltd.

  • is the project development and growth vehicle for the Group.

  • It's orientated towards spot and short-term markets, so assets that are contracted on a shorter basis.

  • It is also where how we house the business development for FSRUs and other midstream infrastructure, and of course it's where how we house our new build program.

  • Golar LNG Partners, of which Golar LNG owns 65%, is an entity that contains assets with longer-term contracts.

  • It's got a stable cash flow.

  • It's a yield oriented vehicle.

  • Currently as you see, it's $1.9 billion in firm revenues.

  • So the strength of this structure is obviously Golar LNG developing assets, getting them into long-term contracts, dropping them down, and creating cash flow to drive further growth for Golar LNG.

  • We have proven the benefits of this structure with the recent dropdown of Freeze, had a total valuation of Freeze dropdown of $330 million, which represents a very good conclusion to that development for that FSRU project.

  • I think the really key thing is to understand that, for this structure to work really effectively, it's very important for Golar LNG to have a large backlog of feedstock of potential long-term contracted assets that will eventually be dropped down into Golar LNG Partners.

  • As I've said, we've taken steps recently and steps in the past have created that situation where we have significant feedstock to feed this structure.

  • Turning to Page 11, just to look at our existing portfolio, Golar LNG Partners' above-the-line assets, there's five vessels in there.

  • I won't spend too much time on those.

  • There is a call obviously upcoming for Golar LNG Partners to talk about its quarter, but inside that entity are 3 FSRUs and 2 carriers, all with long-term contracts, all contracted to major players in the LNG and energy industry.

  • Dropping down below to Golar LNG Ltd.'s existing portfolio, you'll see a new name there, Nusantara Regas Satu, which is the new name for the Golar Khannur, which is the FSRU that is currently finishing off its conversion and will be delivered to Indonesia.

  • I'll be talking more about that later.

  • The next three vessels are the Gimi, Hilli and Gandria, which, while they remain a great potential for conversion projects in the future, all three are already or are in the process of being reactivated for carrier service and should be contributing to earnings growth in the future.

  • The four vessels following that are existing modern vessels, the Golar Viking Grand, Maria and Arctic.

  • All are on charters currently.

  • All are achieving 100% utilization.

  • We've made announcements on two of those vessels recently, the Golar Grand and Golar Arctic, both chartered out to, again, major players in the LNG industry at very good rates.

  • Those charters will kick in very early in the second quarter and start contributing to earnings growth at that time.

  • Turning to Page 12, the market outlook.

  • Obviously, there is a lot of fundamentals that point to a very healthy outlook for the LNG shipping sector.

  • Looking in the near-term, the increase in spot and shorter-term rates continues to climb into 2012.

  • I think that, of late, we've seen a dearth of activity in the chartering sector just because there are so few vessels available, so it's a little bit difficult to pinpoint a spot rate at the moment, but it's fair to say that the quoted figure of $135,000 a day is pretty fair for near-term, even medium-term charters.

  • The outlook on liquefaction, many visible projects albeit we accept and I believe the industry accepts that inevitably some of the large LNG production projects will have some delays.

  • We've tried to build our own view in those delays into our analysis to give a fair outlook on the shipping needs and it's all still very positive.

  • We expect liquefaction capacity to grow by more than 15% by 2015.

  • Looking at what's been happening of late in Asia, quite significant.

  • Japanese power companies and total imports increasing by 39%, in China total imports increasing by 30% respectively since 2010.

  • Underlying all of that is the ever-growing extreme regional disparity in natural gas prices, which is spurring on a drive towards putting infrastructure at play to take advantage of the spreads between the various natural gas markets.

  • A big contributor to that is the potential of new US LNG export projects, which we see as an upside case, depending on whether or not those projects successfully proceed.

  • Finally, we talked last quarter a lot about the extreme backwardation in the shipping charter rate curve.

  • We believe that backwardation is moderating somewhat.

  • It's still there, but the curve is starting to flatten, particularly for three-year-plus up to seven-year charter periods.

  • Turning to Page 13, talking about new builds, again, we've recently announced that we've made a firm commitment to two new build carriers.

  • Apologies for some formatting and typos on our slide there.

  • The two new build carriers are scheduled for delivery in the third and fourth quarters of 2014.

  • We have, we believe, achieved very good pricing and terms on those new builds, and that's really the foundation of what that order is all about.

  • We believe certainly our portfolio and the industry has significant room for further new builds to be deployed.

  • We feel it's very important to get those new builds delivered ahead of the significant rise in LNG production that is coming post 2014.

  • We believe at the moment we are able to extract pricing and terms from shipyards that are very beneficial.

  • All of those things pointed to us making a fairly easy decision to go ahead with some further new builds.

  • We are also, we can say, in final discussions at continuing on with even more of new builds to add to the portfolio.

  • We did receive two fixed-price options on those new build carriers, which have exercise terms coming up in the coming months.

  • So in total, our new build order book now stands at LNG carriers and of course the two FSRUs.

  • The new carriers that we've ordered are very similar to the existing Samsung vessels.

  • They are slightly larger at 162,000 cubic meters, but they, as with the Samsung vessels, have the best-in-class (inaudible) rates and fuel efficiency coming from the tri-fuel diesel engines.

  • The FSRUs, we've got two separate sizes in FSRUs; they both come from Samsung.

  • The first one coming out of the yard will be 170,000 cubic meters; the second one coming out is 160,000 cubic meters.

  • They both will throughput up to 5.8 million tons per year of LNG, which represents, I would say, a significant size of LNG projects able to open up significant market for LNG producers.

  • They have best-in-class fuel efficiency on the re-gas operation and they're also suitable for carrier service at the same service speed as our new build carriers.

  • Turning to Page 14, the positive outlook on new LNG production coming onto the market is what is behind our decision to create situations -- where we find this graph is our open positions (inaudible) into the market.

  • In total, we've got 13 modern vessels to put against the rising LNG production, and we've got several -- we've got three older vessels as well to do the same.

  • So you can see, starting in 2012 and running right through to the end of 2014, we've got multiple carriers to put into service and contribute to earnings growth.

  • Turning to Slide 15, talking a little bit about FSRUs, I think what we would like to say is that we aren't happy.

  • We are disappointed that, in a couple of recent FSRUs tenders, that we have been unsuccessful.

  • We've been unsuccessful because the rates that we have proposed for those projects have been, quite simply, above the rate of expectations that others have found acceptable.

  • However, I would say that, given what we know about where rates are heading and where rates have been for FSRUs and those projects, that the outlook for new FSRUs projects, where we tend to be competitive, the rates still look very attractive and will represent good investments for shareholders.

  • The deal flow across the piece is quite robust.

  • We are tracking, as always, many, many projects.

  • A smaller subset of those projects are heading towards commitment and getting more serious.

  • Of course, we got our hand in those and we are sort of an automatic participant in those tender processes, given our industry-leading position.

  • Increasingly, we see our own focus as we take signals from the market for new build proposals, the pricing that we've achieved on our new build on FSRUs, while they are more expensive than a conversion, the benefit of those new builds with the increased storage, the high rates of re-gas and just the fact that it's a new vessel make the new build FSRUs very attractive.

  • We are extremely well positioned we believe.

  • We've got the only uncommitted FSRU new build coming out of the yards for 2013, and we've got another one coming out in the first half of 2014.

  • As far as existing projects go, West Java is in its final stages.

  • The final conversion steps are being taken in the Jurong shipyard in Singapore.

  • We expect mechanical completion near the end of March, after which the vessel will be delivered to Indonesia for commissioning and testing, and we expect first commercial gas in the second quarter of this year.

  • Our other existing FSRUs in Brazil and Dubai continue to operate well, 100% uptime during the quarter.

  • I believe our clients are very, very happy with the way those vessels are performing.

  • Slide 16 is a summary of all of our FSRUs operating or committed, the Golar Spirit and Golar Winter in Brazil both operating very successfully.

  • You've seen some announcements around Golar winter which is of course an asset that resides in Golar LNG Partners, but I think we are also, in Golar LNG Ltd., very happy to see the time charter associated with Golar Winter extended for another five years.

  • It's a good signal from the market, from Petrobras, that that is a successful project and will contribute to Brazil's energy picture for some years to come.

  • Golar Freeze in Dubai operating very well and, again, 100% uptime.

  • The new Satara vessel has now been flagged as Indonesian, another step along the way to getting her positioned and operating in Indonesia.

  • We should see contribution from Khannur to Golar LNG's earnings during the second quarter of this year, and then of course it becomes an excellent candidate for dropdown into the MLP.

  • Slide 17, I talk a little bit about the FSRU market.

  • Again, it's a very robust market.

  • The opportunity the project developers, market participants, LNG producers are seeing to have FSRUs contribute to an accelerated and cost-effective solution for creating new LNG trades continues to gain momentum.

  • The advantages of FSRUs over land-based terminals are really hitting home, and I think that's why we are seeing over 30 projects or at least 30 ideas for projects being developed with double-digit -- 7 to 10 of those projects we would estimate are serious and reaching a point where you would say have a chance to move forward.

  • Industry-wide, there are six new builds on order from the shipyards today.

  • All of those FSRUs will be the largest and most efficient FSRUs in the industry.

  • Some of those new-build FSRUs have already been committed by other companies into Indonesia, Lithuania and Brazil.

  • But I think what we find is important is we have the only firm noncommitted new build FSRU available in 2013, which allows us to provide prompt delivery to new LNG projects that desire to get moving as quickly as possible.

  • 2014, there's only two new build FSRUs committed, one of which is ours and we fully expect to be successful with deploying both of those vessels.

  • So just wrapping up on Slide 18, once again we see a very robust outlook for the LNG industry as underpinned by fundamentals that are certainly now in plain view.

  • We believe Golar is very well-positioned with its number of open carriers, 13 modern carriers and two FSRUs available for new charters starting in the period 2012 to 2014, as well as our two older carriers that we are activating for service.

  • Once again, along with the two new building orders that we've just made, we are in final discussions for further new building commitments.

  • Our corporate structure through the Freeze transaction is proving out to bring us the intended benefits, and we certainly intend to keep leveraging that corporate structure to bring shareholder value.

  • Speaking of that, we have as our target and the Board is hopeful that we can repay a significant part of our current market capitalization by cash dividends over the next three to five years to shareholders.

  • We have several tools that are available in order to do that; this is what creates our optimism.

  • We have the financing of the existing new build program.

  • We have potential monetization of our holding in and the dividend receipts from Golar Partners, and of course we have Golar's cash flow from its normal operations.

  • Turning to this current quarter, Q1 2012, we would expect, given the state of our charters and our fleet, that earnings will be in line with our fourth-quarter 2011 results, but starting in the second quarter, driven by new charters on existing vessels and following on that, new charters on our new build program, we would expect to see significant earnings growth starting at that time.

  • So with that, that wraps up the presentation.

  • We'd like to turn it over for your questions.

  • Thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

  • Martin Korsvold, Pareto.

  • Martin Korsvold - Analyst

  • Good afternoon.

  • Just on the LNG spot market, could you give us some guidance how you see it playing out now in the near term going into the summer after things have been a bit of a lull at least in terms of the reported spot rates.

  • Secondly, for 2012 and 2013, given the profits that seems to be on the table, you're moving gas out, is there any reason that, with over 100% utilization, we can see LNG spot rates moving to $200,000 per day?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • Yes, I think the spot rates, there has been some subletting activity going on and some short-term single voyages out there, which have at least leveled off the spot rates.

  • Coming into the summer, if you actually -- this isn't always easy to do, but if you actually look at the number of vessels available for trade, I don't think that trend is going to continue.

  • Again, we aren't -- the vessels we are looking at now -- necessarily looking at or buying the very, very short-term spot rates relevant to our business.

  • But I would say that through the rest of the year rates across the piece will be strong.

  • Are we going hunting for $200,000 a day spot rates?

  • I don't think so, but I don't think take that number is way out of line, but we wouldn't make any kind of such prediction.

  • Martin Korsvold - Analyst

  • Secondly, when you placed the (technical difficulty) order, you also mentioned that you were looking at the infrastructure assets.

  • Obviously, FSRUs are sort of one part of that.

  • But could you say something, whether you're looking at other kind of LNG infrastructure projects, like storage or power plants?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • Yes, we still believe that there's other opportunities for Golar in floating storage, floating power, in a very specific way floating LNG, so there are discussions around those kind of opportunities.

  • I would say that still the core, very core of where we see the growth prospects for us, the very important discussions that we have going on are mostly related to carriers, and then secondarily would be FSRUs.

  • Brian Tienzo - CFO

  • Just adding on to that, of course it's something that we have always intended to be doing.

  • I think since 2009, we've always communicated to the market that we want to play (inaudible) of the LNG midstream.

  • And as such, the current situation (inaudible) shipping FSRUs is obviously very buoyant at the moment.

  • But I think we are looking to the future, and of course both floating power and liquefaction are within that chain that we would like to explore.

  • Martin Korsvold - Analyst

  • Thanks.

  • Lastly, just a technical question on the Gandria.

  • Could you give us a bit more color on the reactivation costs?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • We mentioned it's going to be significantly lower than Gimi and Hilli, so Gimi is around $20 million.

  • I think we also mentioned that Hilli is the same, so Gandria will be probably half that in around '10, '11.

  • Martin Korsvold - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • [Jacob Angee], Morgan Stanley.

  • Jacob Angee - Analyst

  • Hi everybody.

  • Just a quick question on my end.

  • You've got some recent contracts fixed for durations of around three years.

  • I'm just curious to know the contract durations that you may be considering for your uncontracted new builds as well as existing vessels as they become available.

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • Yes, I think, again, we take quite a pragmatic view on charter term, and that's influenced by a couple of things.

  • First off, obviously in order to leverage our group structure to its maximum, we'd like to look at longer-term charters.

  • The MLP has an option to purchase assets that have charters for five years or greater.

  • So, as we are executing new charters, we are certainly leaning on the market to see what can be done in that kind of space with those kind of terms.

  • However, if the market is showing us that priority is placed and more value can be created on less than five years or a three-year or two-year charter, then we will certainly consider that and as we've done in the past two vessels, take the decision to sign up charters for that duration.

  • I think take for the near-term, I would expect to see a portfolio of shorter and longer-term assets, shorter and longer-term contracts for our assets because we see that there's value in both of those.

  • Longer-term, again, we will always continue as long as our group structure is providing the benefit that we think we can, we will lean on trying to create longer-term contracted assets.

  • Jacob Angee - Analyst

  • Thanks for the color.

  • Operator

  • Erik Stavseth, Arctic Securities.

  • Erik Stavseth - Analyst

  • Hi guys.

  • Very quickly, you've been basically having a higher dividend for each quarter over the past quarters.

  • Do you have any further guidance?

  • Looking out, cash flow in 2012 and you suggested new build CapEx for that year, it seems that you could be able to up the dividends further.

  • Brian Tienzo - CFO

  • Sure.

  • Obviously it is something that the Board looks at every quarter.

  • It's not a fixed number.

  • As you've seen, we've been increasing it over the past couple of quarters.

  • We do have new build commitments this year.

  • Having said that, we are also quite bullish on what we can achieve on the carriers that are coming through during the middle part of this year as well as the reactivation of Hilli and Gandria.

  • I think the aim obviously is, as we've already said, to try and reflect the dividends to the outlook that we see, which is quite bullish.

  • Now, how quickly that is reflected is obviously very much dependent on how quickly we can efficiently put away some of our vessels.

  • Erik Stavseth - Analyst

  • All right.

  • Thanks for that.

  • And second question, you say that you're contemplating additional new build orders.

  • Firstly, would this be at the same yards that you've been using, or is it other yards?

  • If it's other yards, is that strictly Korean or are you looking at, say, Japanese yards as well?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • I think we'll defer on that one.

  • Everyone knows who the key LNG yards are.

  • We have discussions at one point or another with all of them.

  • So, we will of course, when we make further announcements, identify which yards we've chosen for the next new builds.

  • Erik Stavseth - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Thanks guys.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

  • [Ivan Barona], [D&D Markets].

  • Ivan Barona - Analyst

  • Hi guys.

  • Given that you have ordered two LNG carriers last week and you guide that the cycle will last longer given the reduced backwardation in the market, what rates are achievable for your modern deal fuel LNG carriers for a five to ten year contract, and how does this compare to your estimate six months ago?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • I think that for -- if you're talking five to ten, so in the category of longer-term duration charters for those vessels first of all, we think that the premium that those vessels should achieve over the current fleet of steam marine vessels should be somewhere between $10,000 and $20,000 a day depending on how the charter is going to use the vessel and how much -- how the benefits of the boil operate in the fuel efficiency play through.

  • I don't really think that the fundamental balance looking at the long-term has really changed dramatically.

  • Something that would change that is if the US LNG export projects gained momentum which you may run into a situation then that this ship -- new building ship capacity just could not keep up with the quantity of LNG coming into the market in the back half of the decade.

  • So that could change things.

  • But I think, right now, longer-term, I don't think our view has changed.

  • The longer-term rates will produce an attractive return to the shareholders.

  • We've yet to execute through new build charters for those new builds, so obviously it remains to be seen, but we are still really optimistic about rates.

  • But I wouldn't say it's changed in any way.

  • Ivan Barona - Analyst

  • When you say that there is reduced backwardation in the market, do you believe that rates will be higher than what we have seen for longer closure?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • Yes.

  • I think we believe that the three, four, five, maybe seven-year terms, that a bit of reality is setting in in the market in terms of those rates.

  • So what we see is still maybe flattening or leveling out spot rates in the sector, and an increase in the medium-term part of the curve, which is what we were really talking about when we see a flattening out of that curve.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

  • Marius Magelie, ABG.

  • Marius Magelie - Analyst

  • Do you know how many of the six non new builds on the cross section that are (inaudible) charter contracts?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • It's a bit opaque, because you don't have all fixtures being announced, so we wouldn't want to speculate on how many of the vessels exactly have been fixed out.

  • It's a substantial portion of them for sure, but to put an exact number on it is difficult.

  • Marius Magelie - Analyst

  • Can you just give us some rough numbers?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • I think we won't, sorry.

  • Marius Magelie - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Operator

  • [Jan Lauden], SpareBank 1 Markets.

  • Jan Lauden - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

  • I have a quick question in terms of Japan and Korea.

  • You touched on the issue in your reports in regards to inventory.

  • I was just wondering.

  • Could you put some more color as to how you regard the inventory situation in Japan and Korea at the moment?

  • Is it historically high or low or how do you look at it?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • Sorry, inventory of what?

  • Jan Lauden - Analyst

  • Of LNG.

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • You mean in the really near-term, like at this moment?

  • Jan Lauden - Analyst

  • Yes, how well are they covered going forward?

  • Doug Arnell - CEO

  • I think they're quite well covered at the moment.

  • In fact, one of the reasons that there has been maybe a little bit of softening on the sort of opportunistic charters that have happened is that, as far as we can see, the prompt demand for LNG in Japan is fairly well covered.

  • I think it it's a wait-and-see situation with Japan depending on, as we go through this year, we see how many nukes remain inoperable, or become inoperable.

  • Operator

  • It appears we have no further questions.

  • I'd like to turn the call back over to you, gentlemen, for any additional or closing remarks.

  • Thank you.

  • Brian Tienzo - CFO

  • Thank you, everyone, for contributing to fourth-quarter results call.

  • To that end, I'd now like to end our webcast.

  • Again, thank you, everyone, for contributing.