通用磨坊 (GIS) 2027 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季零售趨勢有明顯改善,部分品類市佔率下滑幅度收斂,但整體尚未回到成長,仍有待努力
    • 管理層重申全年通膨預期在4%~5%高檔,Q4通膨壓力將進一步上升至約6%;全年仍預期低個位數庫存去化對寵物事業帶來逆風
    • 公司未公布新財測或下修指引,市場反應與同業對比未於逐字稿中提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 創新與產品翻新步調加快,過去兩年新產品占營收比重由3%提升至5%,如蛋白質穀片、Totino's新口味、La Tiara等新品表現強勁
      • 價格組合(price mix)改善,聚焦高價值創新、包裝架構調整,帶動部分品類如Cheerios Protein、Love Made Fresh等成長
      • 寵物事業貓糧與零食業務恢復成長,Tiki Cat、Tastefuls等品牌表現亮眼
      • 數位與行銷現代化,媒體投放小幅提升,內容產製與影響力行銷加速,電商滲透率提升
    • 風險:
      • 通膨壓力持續,Q4將進一步升高,原物料如小麥、包裝、運輸等成本上揚
      • 寵物事業乾狗糧(特別是Wilderness品牌)持續下滑,需進行產品與行銷全面翻新
      • 果乾零食品類競爭加劇,新進品牌搶市,需加強創新與品牌力
      • 消費者壓力大,中低收入族群持續等促銷購買,價格敏感度高
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 北美零售(NAR)市佔率:多數品類市佔率改善,穀片Q1市佔率YoY -0.1(去年同期-0.9),湯品Q1市佔率YoY -0.1(去年同期-0.4)
    • Totino's:衰退幅度減半,但仍需持續改善
    • 果乾零食:品類Q1成長13%,但公司市佔受新進品牌侵蝕
    • 寵物事業:Love Made Fresh顯著成長,貓糧與零食恢復成長,乾狗糧(Wilderness)下滑加劇,Life Protection Formula持平於大盤
    • 濕狗糧:Q1下滑約4%,符合預期
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年通膨預期4%~5%,Q1約4%,Q4預計升至6%
    • 全年毛利率預期若排除53週會計因素,將大致持平
    • 全年預計實現7.5億美元成本節約,2030年前累計30億美元(20億HMM+10億轉型)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: NAR零售消費趨勢是否會持續改善?市佔率修復進度如何?
      A: 本季多數品類市佔率改善,穀片與湯品市佔率下滑幅度大幅收斂,但尚未回到成長,將持續聚焦價格組合、創新與行銷。Totino's與果乾零食為重點改善對象。
    • Q: 全年通膨與成本壓力展望?Q4為何會升高?
      A: Q1通膨約4%,全年預期4%~5%,Q4因部分原物料(如小麥、包裝)與對沖到期,通膨將升至約6%。全年HMM成本節約與轉型將抵銷部分壓力。
    • Q: 寵物事業乾狗糧下滑主因?Love Made Fresh成長是否能抵銷?
      A: Love Made Fresh成長顯著,貓糧與零食恢復成長,但乾狗糧(特別是Wilderness)下滑加劇,需全面檢討產品、包裝、行銷。Life Protection Formula有新產品與創新下半年推出。
    • Q: 創新與產品翻新帶來哪些具體成效?下半年還有什麼重點?
      A: 新產品占營收比重提升至5%,蛋白質穀片、Totino's新口味、La Tiara等表現佳。下半年將聚焦Life Protection Formula創新、零食類蛋白質新品、GHOST bars、EPIC等,並持續強化行銷。
    • Q: 消費者促銷敏感度是否改善?價格策略如何因應同業漲價?
      A: 消費者仍高度促銷敏感,行為與去年下半年相似,全年指引已納入此假設。公司將以創新、產品組合為主,視品類競爭動態調整價格與促銷策略。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to General Mills fiscal 2027 Q1 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    各位好。感謝各位加入我們,歡迎參加通用磨坊(General Mills)2027 會計年度第一季(Q1)財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I will now hand the conference over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance. Jeff, please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資人關係與企業財務副總裁 Jeff Siemon。Jeff,請開始。

  • Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Warren, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today for this live Q&A session on our first-quarter fiscal '27 results. I hope you all had time to review our press release, listen to the prepared remarks and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website.

    謝謝你,Warren,各位早安。感謝各位今天參加我們針對 2027 會計年度第一季業績的即時問答(Q&A)會議。希望各位都已抽空閱讀我們的新聞稿、收聽事先準備的發言並查看我們的簡報資料;這些資料今天早上已公布於我們的投資人關係網站。

  • Please note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. So please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which we may discuss on today's call.

    請注意,在本次問答環節中,我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述,這些陳述係基於管理層目前的觀點與假設。因此,請參閱今天早上的新聞稿,了解可能影響前瞻性陳述的因素,以及我們可能在今日電話會議中討論之非 GAAP 資訊的調節表。

  • I'm here this morning with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; Dana McNabb, our COO; and Kofi Bruce, our CFO. With that, we will go ahead and open it up for Q&A. So Warren, can you please get us started?

    今天早上與我一同出席的有:董事長兼執行長 Jeff Harmening、營運長 Dana McNabb,以及財務長 Kofi Bruce。接下來,我們將開放問答。那麼 Warren,能否請你先開始?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

    (接線員指示)Andrew Lazar,巴克萊。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Nice to see some sequential improvement starting to show through. I guess I'd like to get a sense of the sort of pace of improvement in NAR specifically going forward. I know this quarter, you saw retail trends improve sequentially.

    很高興看到一些逐季改善開始顯現。我想更了解未來 NAR 具體的改善速度大概會是如何。我知道本季你們看到零售趨勢逐季改善。

  • In 2Q, I guess, would you expect further sequential improvement from the minus 2% retail consumption that we saw this quarter? Or should we expect more of a stabilization at this point? Maybe talk about retail takeaway, which excludes all the timing issue and whatnot.

    那麼在第二季(2Q),你們是否預期零售消費量會在本季看到的 -2% 基礎上進一步逐季改善?還是說在這個時間點應該預期更偏向穩定?也許可以談談排除所有時點因素等影響後的零售帶出(retail takeaway)。

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Andrew, thanks for the question. Our focus is really on continuing to improve dollar share trends. I'm not going to get into quarterly Nielsen estimates. But we are pleased with the improvement we saw a 2-point improvement in dollar sales. We did improve our share performance in the majority of our categories.

    Andrew,謝謝你的問題。我們的重點其實是持續改善以金額計的市占趨勢。我不會深入討論每季的尼爾森(Nielsen)估計數。但我們對看到的改善感到滿意——以金額計的銷售提升了 2 個百分點。我們在多數品類的市占表現確實有所改善。

  • But as you probably noticed, we're not all the way to growth yet. So we still have work to do. Where we're focused is really the first thing you'll see is we expect an improvement in price mix. If you recall, in Q1, we hadn't lapped our base price investments yet.

    但如你可能也注意到的,我們還沒有完全回到成長。所以我們仍有工作要做。我們聚焦的方向是:你首先會看到我們預期價格/組合(price mix)將有所改善。如果你還記得,在第一季(Q1),我們尚未跨越(lapped)我們的基礎價格投資比較基期。

  • We will start to do that in Q2, and we like the plans we have against product mix, premium innovation and price pack architecture. We also will see accelerated innovation and renovation, and we really like how our marketing is performing right now. We'll continue to focus on that.

    我們將在第二季(Q2)開始跨越該基期;我們也看好在產品組合、高端創新以及價格與包裝架構(price pack architecture)方面的規劃。我們也將看到創新與產品翻新(renovation)加速推進,而我們非常喜歡目前行銷的表現。我們會持續聚焦在這些方面。

  • So again, we still have work to do. We had the Totino's business that was a problem for us all last year. We've cut those declines and half that's an area we'll continue to focus on, and we expect to see improved dollar performance throughout the year.

    所以再強調一次,我們仍有工作要做。Totino's 業務去年一整年都對我們造成困擾。我們已將那些下滑幅度減半;這也是我們會持續聚焦的領域,並且我們預期全年以金額計的表現將有所改善。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Great. And then, I guess, focusing on the share piece. In NAR a year ago, it seemed like General Mills was showing sort of negative volume and share, really across a pretty wide swath of categories. What does it look like today versus a year ago? And if it's far smaller number of categories today where the issues are, what's the sort of the planned fix for those?

    很好。接著我想聚焦在市占這一塊。在一年前的 NAR,看起來通用磨坊在相當廣泛的品類中都呈現銷量與市占下滑。相較於一年前,現在的情況如何?如果目前出問題的品類數量少很多,那對於那些品類的修正計畫是什麼?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Well, as you'd mentioned, we were in a tough spot last year. And this year, we have seen a pretty good improvement, and we're encouraged by the momentum. We saw improvement in the majority of our categories. And I'll give you a couple of examples.

    如你所提到的,我們去年處於相當艱難的狀況。而今年我們看到相當不錯的改善,也對這股動能感到鼓舞。我們在多數品類都看到改善。我舉幾個例子。

  • I look at cereal, where last year in Q1, our share was down 0.9. This year in Q1, we're only down 0.1. Soup, another big business, we were down 0.4 in share. This year, we're only down 0.1. So we really do like what we're seeing, and we're not to growth yet. We know we still have more work to do, and that's going to be an emphasis on price mix and innovation and renovation.

    以穀片(cereal)為例,去年第一季(Q1)我們的市占下滑 0.9;今年第一季我們只下滑 0.1。湯品(soup)是另一個大型業務,我們去年市占下滑 0.4;今年我們也只下滑 0.1。所以我們確實喜歡目前看到的狀況,但我們還沒有回到成長。我們知道仍有更多工作要做,而重點將放在價格/組合,以及創新與產品翻新。

  • The two spots that we're keeping our eye on where we need to see more improvement is Totino's, which I've already talked to. Pleased, again, that we cut those declines in half, but we have more work to do. We have really good product innovation, blasted roles, we have some better merchandising. We have strong innovation -- or sorry, strong renovation coming. So we feel good about that.

    我們持續關注、需要看到更多改善的兩個領域是 Totino's(我剛才已談到)以及——再次強調,我們很高興已將那些下滑減半,但仍有更多工作要做。我們有非常好的產品創新,例如 blasted rolls,也有更好的陳列促銷(merchandising)。我們也有強勁的創新——抱歉,是強勁的產品翻新即將推出。因此我們對此感到樂觀。

  • And then we have some challenges on fruit snacks. Now the category is growing remarkably fast. It's up about 13% in Q1. But we're really seeing some small insurgent brands enter and drive that with increased distribution. And so we need to up our game there. We're going to really leverage our Annie brand to bring some very strong new products to market.

    另外,我們在水果零食(fruit snacks)方面也面臨一些挑戰。目前該品類成長非常快。第一季約成長 13%。但我們確實看到一些規模較小的新興品牌進入市場,並透過增加通路鋪貨來推動成長。因此我們需要在這方面提升競爭力。我們將充分運用 Annie 品牌,把非常強的新產品推向市場。

  • We've just launched Nature Pals, which is a high fiber fruit stack, great taste. We have some great renovation coming on our core business. So Totino's and fruit is where we'll focus on, and then we expect to see continued improvement in the rest of our brands.

    我們剛推出 Nature Pals,這是一款高纖水果零食,口感很棒。我們的核心業務也將推出一些很好的產品翻新。因此 Totino's 與水果零食是我們將聚焦的領域;同時我們也預期其他品牌將持續改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

    Peter Galbo,美國銀行。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Kofi, I was hoping you could shed a little bit more light on the inflation guidance. Obviously, having moved kind of up towards the higher end of the 4% to 5% range. I think it might be helpful just to outline maybe where inflation came in, in Q1 and then just how you kind of see it pacing over the balance of the year and where that kind of exit rate on inflation might be as things currently stand today?

    Kofi,我希望你能再多說明一下通膨指引。顯然你們已把預期上調到 4% 到 5% 區間的較高端。我想如果能概述一下第一季(Q1)通膨實際落點,以及你們如何看待今年剩餘期間的走勢,並在目前情況下通膨的期末(exit rate)可能落在什麼水準,會很有幫助。

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Pete, thanks for the question. Just to give you some texture, we did see inflation roughly within the range, maybe a touch lower than we expected in Q1, but at the low end of our range, around 4%, which if I look forward and take into account sort of our hedge positions, I would expect Q1, Q2, Q3 to be roughly similar, and Q4 would be just a touch outside the range at around 6% based on everything in front of us right now.

    當然可以。Pete,謝謝你的問題。提供一些背景,我們在第一季確實看到通膨大致落在區間內,可能比我們原先預期略低一些,但仍在區間低端、約 4%。若我往前看並把我們的避險部位納入考量,我預期第一季、第二季與第三季大致相近;而第四季則會略微超出區間,約在 6%,這是基於我們目前所掌握的所有資訊。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And I wanted to dig in a little bit on Pet. I know there were a couple of maybe timing elements that happened in the quarter, the extra month of Whitebridge. But maybe the other thing that stood out was just the inventory -- the retailer inventory headwind wasn't maybe as dramatic as you all would have anticipated in Q1.

    了解。好的。這非常有幫助。我也想再深入聊一下寵物業務。我知道本季可能發生了幾個時點因素,例如 Whitebridge 多了一個月的貢獻。但另外一個比較突出的點是庫存——零售商庫存帶來的逆風,似乎沒有你們原本在第一季預期的那麼明顯。

  • And I'm just -- wanted to pressure test a little bit on the go forward. How much of that low single-digit headwind is maybe conservatism in Pet versus Q1 being a bit of an anomaly from a retailer headwind standpoint?

    我只是——想對未來走勢做一點壓力測試。那個低個位數的逆風,有多少是你們在寵物業務上偏保守的假設, versus 第一季在零售商逆風角度其實有點異常?

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Let me start with Whitebridge first. I think as is consistent with most of our past acquisitions of any size, we generally are on a one-month lag until we hit systems integration, and then we do a catch-up that almost always -- that has always flown through organic sales. So that was expected at some point, one month.

    當然。我先從 Whitebridge 談起。我想這與我們過去多數具一定規模的併購一致:一般在完成系統整合前,我們通常會有一個月的落後期,之後會做一次追認,而那幾乎總是——也一直都會——反映在有機銷售中。所以那在某個時間點發生、為期一個月,是預期之內的。

  • So -- and then the other point I would tell you is that worth about 1 point of growth on Pet, maybe 15 basis points for the company. So not frankly, all that large. On inventory, what I would tell you is, this is -- we've been doing this long enough and the challenge is just on Pet. There's a lot of volatility quarter to quarter.

    所以——另外一點我會告訴你的是,這大概相當於寵物業務成長約 1 個百分點,對公司大約 15 個基點。所以坦白說,規模並不算很大。至於庫存,我想說的是,這——我們做這件事夠久了,而挑戰就在寵物業務。季度之間的波動很大。

  • I do think based on the customer mix progression that we still expect a low single-digit headwind from inventory over the course of the year mainly is our mix skews more and more towards customers who carry lower inventory levels. Can't probably get too precise on a quarterly basis about how that's going to flow. So we would still stand by that forecast for the full year, however.

    我確實認為,基於客戶組合的演進,我們仍預期全年庫存會帶來低個位數的逆風,主要是因為我們的組合越來越偏向那些持有較低庫存水位的客戶。但要在季度層面精準說明它會如何反映,可能做不到。不過,我們仍會維持對全年這個預測。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moskow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • I was hoping to drill down on the high single-digit decline in dog food. Love Made Fresh, I believe, was entirely incremental in the quarter. So can you tell us how incremental it was because it wasn't in there a year ago? And what's driving the decline? Is it just wilderness or is there other factors?

    我希望更深入了解狗糧高個位數的下滑。我相信 Love Made Fresh 在本季是完全新增的貢獻。所以你們能否告訴我們它的新增貢獻有多少,因為去年同期並沒有納入?另外,下滑的驅動因素是什麼?只是 Wilderness 嗎,還是有其他因素?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Hi, Rob. Thanks for the question. You're right. When you look at our Pet business right now. We're really pleased with the growth that we're seeing on our cat business. Our treats business has inflected to growth, and we've seen significant improvement in Love Made Fresh.

    嗨,Rob。謝謝你的問題。你說得對。當你看我們目前的寵物業務。我們對貓業務看到的成長非常滿意。我們的零食業務已轉為成長,而且我們也看到 Love Made Fresh 有顯著改善。

  • But the area that we're having challenges in our dry dog resists. From a dry dog perspective, the category was down about mid-single digits, as you said, life protection formula pretty much hung in there with the category, and it was Wilderness where we saw declines accelerate.

    但我們面臨挑戰的領域是在乾狗糧。就乾狗糧而言,如你所說,該品類下滑約中個位數;Life Protection Formula 基本上與品類表現相當,而我們看到下滑加速的是 Wilderness。

  • And Wilderness is a place you will have heard on the prepared remarks, where we've actually applied our remarkable experience framework testing to that business to try and diagnose the challenges. And we see that we really have to relook at the entire proposition of the product, the packaging, the marketing, the communication, we have work to do.

    而 Wilderness 這一塊,你在事先準備的發言中也聽到,我們其實已把我們的「remarkable experience framework」測試應用到該業務上,試圖診斷問題。我們看到我們確實需要重新檢視整個產品主張:產品本身、包裝、行銷、溝通,我們還有很多工作要做。

  • And we had the same challenge on our cat taste pools business a few years ago, and it took us about 18 to 24 months to improve it, and that business is back to growth now. So the main challenge we see is on Wilderness.

    幾年前我們在貓用 Taste Purrs 業務上也遇到同樣的挑戰,花了大約 18 到 24 個月才改善,而那個業務現在已回到成長。所以我們看到的主要挑戰就在 Wilderness。

  • And on Life Protection Formula, we have some really good product news and renovation and new products coming in the back half that will really emphasize our ingredient superiority with benefits we know pet parents are looking for. And I really like the plans that are coming in the back half.

    至於 Life Protection Formula,我們在下半年會有一些很好的產品消息,包括改版與新品推出,將更強調我們在成分上的優勢,並帶來我們知道毛孩家長正在尋找的效益。我非常喜歡下半年即將推出的計畫。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Okay. Just a quick follow-up. Wet dog food, a small part of your business, but how is that doing? I heard that there might be some shelf changes at specialty retailers and wet.

    好的。再快速追問一下。濕狗糧在你們業務中占比不大,但表現如何?我聽說在專業零售通路那邊,濕食可能有一些貨架調整。

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Wet dog food is doing as we expected. It is down about 4%, but that is not worse than we had planned. And I'm actually not familiar with the challenges that you're talking to. As far as I know, our plans are on track.

    濕狗糧的表現符合我們的預期。大約下滑 4%,但並沒有比我們原先規劃的更差。而你提到的那些挑戰,我其實不太熟悉。就我所知,我們的計畫都在軌道上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

    Leah Jordan,高盛。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • It sounds like the step-up in innovation and renovation you've done this year has been working. Just seeing if you could provide more detail on what's tracking better than expected? And what is that telling you about the consumer?

    聽起來你們今年在創新與改版上的加碼是有效的。想請你們提供更多細節:有哪些表現優於預期?這對消費者行為透露了什麼訊息?

  • And then on the acceleration, Dana, that you noted that's still to come, what should we be looking for? I think you called out cereal specifically for later this year, but any detail there as well?

    另外,Dana,你提到後續還會有加速成長的動能,我們應該關注哪些重點?我想你特別點名了今年稍晚的穀物產品,但也請就此提供一些細節?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • So thanks for the question. From a new product perspective, we're really encouraged with what we're seeing. We've stepped up the amount of new products. We've increased by about 50% over the last two years have gone from 3% of net sales to 5% of net sales. And we really are focused on bringing new products with benefits we know the consumer values and will pay for.

    謝謝你的問題。從新品角度來看,我們對目前看到的情況非常振奮。我們提高了新品推出的數量。過去兩年我們大約增加了 50%,新品占淨銷售額的比重也從 3% 提升到 5%。我們的重點確實是推出具備我們知道消費者重視、也願意付費的效益的新產品。

  • So when you look at the new products that have launched in Q1, we've seen really strong performance behind our protein cereals, particularly Honey Nut Cheerios. Our Blasted Totino's Rolls that are bringing new bold flavors are doing really well. Our La Tiara launch is also working really well in the Mexican category. And of course, we've seen Love Made Fresh improve pretty significantly.

    所以當你看第一季推出的新品,我們看到蛋白質穀物產品表現非常強勁,尤其是 Honey Nut Cheerios。我們的 Blasted Totino's Rolls 帶來新的大膽口味,表現也很好。我們的 La Tiara 上市在墨西哥品類中也運作得非常好。當然,我們也看到 Love Made Fresh 有相當顯著的改善。

  • So again, we're still one quarter in, but we're encouraged by the trial and repeat that we're seeing on those new products. And as we look more to the back half of the year, I already mentioned that Life Protection Formula has some great innovation coming with benefits.

    所以再說一次,我們目前才過了一個季度,但我們對這些新品在試用與回購方面看到的表現感到鼓舞。而展望今年下半年,我剛才也提到 Life Protection Formula 會推出一些具有效益的重大創新。

  • We know the consumer values. We are leaning into significant new products in our snacks categories. So our bars categories we're going to lean into more protein innovation there on Nature Valley on LARABAR. We're scaling up our GHOST bars business, and we're even launching snack in our EPIC business, and we'll continue to bring really strong marketing behind all of that.

    這些是我們知道消費者重視的。我們也會在零食品類大力投入重要新品。因此在棒狀產品品類,我們會在 Nature Valley 與 LARABAR 上加碼更多蛋白質創新。我們正在擴大 GHOST 能量棒業務規模,甚至也會在 EPIC 業務中推出零食新品,並將持續以非常強力的行銷來支持這一切。

  • So I really think we understand what the consumer values and we are bringing them appropriately to the categories that we play in, and we'll continue to see improved momentum going forward.

    所以我確實認為我們了解消費者重視什麼,並且正以適切的方式把這些價值帶到我們所參與的品類中;展望未來,我們也將持續看到動能改善。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • And then for a follow-up to Kofi, just seeing if you could talk about gross margin and maybe puts and takes as we go through the year, just putting the input cost inflation commentary you highlighted, which accelerated in fourth quarter as you think about that balance sheet versus the productivity efforts you have on the com? And any flow-through we should keep in mind as that mix piece ramps?

    接著追問 Kofi,想請你談談毛利率,以及我們在今年推進過程中可能的利多與利空;把你提到的投入成本通膨評論放進來看——第四季通膨加速——當你思考資產負債表相對於你們在 com 上的生產力努力時,這之間的平衡如何?另外,隨著組合因素拉升,有哪些傳導效應是我們需要留意的?

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So in aggregate, it's sort of at the macro level, if you take our inflation guide and our guidance on HMM cost savings, so still roughly what we expect to offset over the full year, set aside any of the phasing commentary I gave you. I think the other important thing to call out are the mechanical factors around 53rd week, which will obviously have an impact on gross margins as we move through the back half of the year just solely on that comparison.

    是的。整體來看、偏宏觀層面,如果把我們對通膨的指引與對 HMM 成本節省的指引放在一起看,全年我們預期大致仍可相互抵銷——先不談我剛才提到的任何時點分布(phasing)評論。我認為另一個重要要點是第 53 週的機械性因素,這顯然會在今年下半年、僅就比較基期而言,對毛利率造成影響。

  • If you strip that out, actually, our growth -- we would expect our gross margins net to be roughly flat ex that mechanical factor. And then at operating margin, we would just add the incentive comp reset as an additional mechanical factor on top of that. But all things equal, those are kind of the big puts and takes I'd be watching.

    如果把那個因素剔除,其實我們的成長——我們預期在扣除該機械性因素後,毛利率(淨額)大致持平。至於營業利益率,我們會再加上獎酬(incentive comp)重設,作為額外的機械性因素。但在其他條件相同下,這些就是我會關注的主要利多與利空。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

    Chris Carey,Wells Fargo Securities。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Dana, you mentioned that pricing was -- you were constructive about pricing. I can't remember exactly how you framed it over the course of the year. Do you have a different expectation for pricing relative to where you started the year?

    Dana,你提到定價——你對定價持建設性看法。我不太記得你是如何描述全年走勢的。你對定價的預期,和年初時相比有不同嗎?

  • I'm just conscious that foodservice pricing came in better, pet pricing came in better, although I assume mix was partly a factor there. So I'm just wondering if your pricing plans are similar, namely in the context of the current inflation backdrop? And then I have a follow-up.

    我注意到餐飲服務(foodservice)定價表現更好、寵物品類定價也更好,雖然我猜其中一部分是組合因素的影響。所以我想了解,在目前通膨背景下,你們的定價計畫是否大致相同?另外我還有一個追問。

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Chris, thanks for the question. Well, as you know, we did a lot of work last year to adjust our everyday prices and that was really important to stabilize our base volume and to help us get back to household penetration growth. And so with that investment behind us, as we move to fiscal '27, we're really focused on driving positive price mix.

    Chris,謝謝你的問題。如你所知,我們去年做了很多工作來調整日常價格(everyday prices),這對穩定我們的基礎銷量非常重要,也幫助我們回到家戶滲透率(household penetration)成長的軌道。因此,在這項投資已到位的情況下,隨著我們邁向 2027 財年,我們會更聚焦於推動正向的價格/組合(price mix)。

  • And that's what's particularly strong contributions from product mix from premium innovation from price pack architecture, and we're seeing that work on things like Cheerios Protein, Love Made Fresh, Chex Mix Tubs, et cetera. So that is where we're focused. As Kofi did mention in his prepared remarks though, we expect input cost inflation in the higher end of what we previously communicated in the 4% to 5%.

    而這主要來自產品組合的強勁貢獻:高端創新、價格包裝架構(price pack architecture),我們也看到這些在 Cheerios Protein、Love Made Fresh、Chex Mix Tubs 等產品上奏效。所以這是我們的重點。不過,正如 Kofi 在事先準備的發言中提到的,我們預期投入成本通膨會落在先前所溝通 4% 到 5% 區間的較高端。

  • And as we always do, we're going to work on all levers to address higher costs, whether that's through cost savings or through price mix. So HMM is always our first defense against inflation, and we have some transformation, but we have a very strong strategic revenue management toolkit as well. And given this level of inflation, I would assume all levers in that toolkit are on the table, trade, mix, list pricing, et cetera.

    而且一如既往,我們會運用所有槓桿來因應較高成本,不論是透過成本節省或透過價格/組合。因此,HMM 一直是我們對抗通膨的第一道防線;我們也有一些轉型計畫,同時我們也具備非常強的策略性收益管理(SRM)工具組。在這樣的通膨水準下,我會假設工具組裡的所有槓桿都在考量範圍內:通路促銷(trade)、組合、牌價(list pricing)等等。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. The follow-up is the inflation outlook, Kofi, I think you had mentioned inflation would be somewhat similar in fiscal Q1, two and three, and then step up in fiscal Q4. Clearly, you have just nice hedging and good visibility over the course of the first few quarters of the year and then that step up. I mean, this is way too early, but it's going to be such a strong year for HMM this year.

    好的。追問是關於通膨展望:Kofi,我記得你提到 2027 財年第一、二、三季的通膨會大致相近,然後在第四季上升。顯然,你們在今年前幾季有不錯的避險與能見度,然後才出現那個上升。我的意思是,現在談還太早,但今年對 HMM 來說會是非常強勁的一年。

  • Can you get ahead of delivering this level of performance as we think more medium term, if this inflation is sticky going into out years? And just now that you've reset some price points and value in your portfolio, how do you view -- and it's a little bit of carrying through what Dana just said, but how would you view pricing as a lever if you need that over the next few years as you think about medium-term objectives after the work that you've done over the past 18 months?

    如果通膨具有黏著性、延續到未來年度,你們能否提前布局,以在中期更持續地交出這樣的表現?另外,既然你們已經重設了產品組合中的一些價格點與價值定位,你如何看待——這也有點延續 Dana 剛才所說——未來幾年若需要的話,定價作為一個槓桿的角色?也就是在你們過去 18 個月所做的工作之後,當你思考中期目標時,會如何看待定價?

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So look, obviously, I'm not going to get into guidance for next fiscal year given we're still in the first quarter of this one. I would tell you our construct over the long term is still built around HMM being the primary bullwork against inflationary pressures.

    是的。所以你看,顯然我不會在我們仍處於本財年第一季時,就去談下一財年的指引。我可以告訴你的是,長期來看,我們的架構仍是以 HMM 作為對抗通膨壓力的主要防波堤。

  • If I just take the last three to four years, we have run in HMM at the high end of the 4% to 5% range. I have every confidence that, that is the range that we would expect to carry with us as we go forward from here. Obviously, anything related to SRM and the combination of price and mix, we would expect to be in the mix of how we manage through the year and frankly, how we drive growth at the top line.

    如果回顧過去三到四年,我們的 HMM 一直運行在 4% 到 5% 區間的高端。我非常有信心,往後我們也會把這個區間延續下去。當然,任何與 SRM 以及價格與組合的搭配相關的作法,我們預期都會納入我們全年管理的方式之中;坦白說,也會是我們推動營收端成長的方法之一。

  • What I can't do is give you a sense of what '28 is going to look like from an SRM perspective other than to just acknowledge what Dana said, which is we will use all the tools in our toolkit. And the environment remains frankly, a little volatile with respect to costs. So it's probably a little early for us to get too deep into the discussion beyond that.

    我無法做的是,從 SRM 的角度告訴你 2028 年會是什麼樣子;我只能呼應 Dana 所說的:我們會運用工具組中的所有工具。而且成本環境坦白說仍有些波動。所以,除了這些之外,現在對我們來說可能還太早去深入討論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

    Alexia Howard,Bernstein。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Can I just start with the marketing spend question and the -- you said that the marketing spend was up significantly this quarter. How much of it up year on year how do you expect that to play out over the course of the year? Is it going to stay similarly up for the remaining quarters?

    我想先從行銷支出問題開始——你提到本季行銷支出大幅增加。年增幅度大概是多少?你預期全年會如何演變?接下來幾季也會維持類似的增幅嗎?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Alexia, thanks for the question. From a media standpoint, in Q1, we were up modestly in Q1, not significantly, and we are expecting our media spend to be up low single digits throughout the year. But what I'm most excited about when it comes to media is just how we're modernizing our approach to marketing and communications.

    Alexia,謝謝你的問題。就媒體投放而言,在第一季我們是小幅增加,不是大幅增加;而我們預期全年媒體支出會以低個位數成長。但我對媒體最感到興奮的是,我們正在如何讓行銷與溝通方式現代化。

  • We have stood up a content studio that's allowing us to make more content faster and that higher quality. We have stepped up our use of influencers to maximize reach and engagement, almost doubled that and that will get even more used over the course of the year.

    我們成立了一個內容工作室(content studio),讓我們能更快製作更多內容,而且品質更高。我們也加大了對網紅(influencers)的運用,以最大化觸及與互動,幾乎翻倍,而且在今年接下來的時間裡還會用得更多。

  • We've brought on new creative agencies and then we're also stepping up our readiness for agentic and really accelerating e-commerce. So while media spend is up modestly, I think what I'm more encouraged by is just the work that we've done in order to show up to consumers in a more relevant way in culture.

    我們也引進了新的創意代理商,同時也在提升我們對 agentic 的準備度,並真正加速電商。因此,雖然媒體支出只是小幅上升,但我更受鼓舞的是,我們所做的工作讓我們能以更貼近文化、也更相關的方式出現在消費者面前。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Perfect. Very helpful. And then as a follow-up, this is probably for Kofi. Where are we at with leverage at the moment? I know that your goal is to bring it down to 3 times net debt to EBITDA. But will it pick up just because the EBITDA is obviously down year on year? And how quickly do we expect that to come down towards that goal level?

    很好。非常有幫助。接著作為追問,這可能是問 Kofi 的。目前我們的槓桿水準到哪裡了?我知道你們的目標是把淨負債對 EBITDA 降到 3 倍。但會不會因為 EBITDA 顯然年對年下滑而使倍數上升?我們預期多久能往那個目標水準下降?

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Appreciate the question, Alexia. I would expect it will take us on pace with the combination of all the work we're doing on HMM and transformation savings, at least a couple of years to work ourselves back to our target of 3 times net debt to EBITDA, setting aside any impact from extraordinary items like, for example, divestitures, which we have in the course of the past couple of years used to help reduce leverage.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,Alexia。我預期,配合我們在 HMM 以及轉型節省方面所做的所有工作,至少需要幾年時間,才能把槓桿拉回到我們的目標——淨負債對 EBITDA 3 倍——先不考慮例如資產剝離等非常態項目的影響;過去幾年我們確實也透過這類作法來協助降低槓桿。

  • So all things equal, we expect to make sequential progress over the next couple of years. I can't give you an exact end date, but just know that in the back of our transformation goals through 2030 is our planned reduction back to target.

    因此在其他條件不變下,我們預期未來幾年會逐季取得進展。我無法給你一個確切的結束日期,但請知道,在我們到 2030 年的轉型目標背後,也包含了把槓桿降回目標水準的規劃。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • And where are you at the moment? Is it a little over 4?

    那你們目前大概在哪個水準?是略高於 4 倍嗎?

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, just a touch.

    是的,稍微高一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Marks, Jefferies.

    Scott Marks,Jefferies。

  • Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

    Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask first a little bit about the transformation initiatives. I think in the prepared remarks, you called out working with a partner to stand up a new packaging facility to help us some flexibility there. Wondering if you can just give us a little more detail around that as well as share any other plans that you're currently working through and how we should be thinking about the benefits flowing through over the next few years?

    我想先問一下轉型計畫。我記得在事先準備的發言中,你提到與合作夥伴一起建立一座新的包裝設施,以提升我們在這方面的彈性。想請你就此提供更多細節,也請分享你們目前正在推進的其他計畫,以及我們應該如何看待未來幾年效益的逐步體現?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Well, thanks for the question. I think, first, just stepping back, you'll remember in the prepared remarks that we committed to delivering $750 million of cost savings in this fiscal year and $3 billion in total by fiscal '30. And how that breaks out is $2 billion of HMM and $1 billion of transformation.

    好的,謝謝你的問題。我想先退一步回顧一下,你會記得在事先準備的發言中,我們承諾在本財年實現 7.5 億美元的成本節省,並在 30 財年之前累計達到 30 億美元。其中拆分為:HMM 20 億美元、轉型 10 億美元。

  • And the way we're thinking about transformation is not just about cutting costs. It's about how do we get our organization to a place that's fit for future growth? Part of that will be reimagining our supply chain, and that's looking at capacity utilization, our manufacturing network, logistics.

    而我們對「轉型」的思考不只是削減成本。而是要讓組織達到能支撐未來成長的狀態。其中一部分是重新想像我們的供應鏈,包括產能利用率、製造網路與物流。

  • And part of it is the example that you just called out in terms of what do we need to stand up in order to get at growth faster. And so our way of doing packaging innovation today is inefficient. We have just recently signed on a partner, an external partner in order to help us get it more packaging innovation more efficiently and effectively and at better pace.

    另一部分則是你剛剛提到的例子:為了更快取得成長,我們需要建立哪些能力。我們目前做包裝創新的方式效率不高。我們最近剛簽下了一家合作夥伴——外部合作夥伴——來協助我們以更高效率、更有效、且更快的節奏推動包裝創新。

  • And that will allow us to accelerate our growth in e-commerce, where we know the majority of the food growth is going. So we're still very early days. I don't have a lot more details to share with that, but I really like the approach the team is taking.

    這將使我們能加速電商的成長,而我們知道食品成長的大部分都將流向電商。所以我們仍在非常早期的階段。我沒有更多細節可以分享,但我很喜歡團隊正在採取的做法。

  • Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

    Scott Marks - Equity Analyst

  • Appreciate the thoughts there. Next, I just wanted to ask a little bit about some of the price pack architecture initiatives, specifically in the prepared remarks, you called out innovating cereal around lower entry price points as well as larger tubs and larger formats. Were there any other areas of the business where you've been that active with making those changes? And have you seen similar results as you have with the cereal portfolio in NAR?

    謝謝你的分享。接著我想問一下價格/包裝架構(price pack architecture)的一些計畫;特別是你在事先準備的發言中提到,穀片(cereal)會在較低入門價位點,以及更大的桶裝與更大規格上做創新。在其他業務領域,你們是否也同樣積極推動這些改變?你們是否也看到與北美零售(NAR)穀片組合相似的成果?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Well, first, thanks for calling out the progress that you've seen in cereal. We're encouraged by the 2-point improvement we saw in Q1. And the team has done a very good job with packaging innovation. We have the cups that allow us to have an opening price point for consumers.

    首先,謝謝你點出你在穀片上看到的進展。我們對第一季看到的 2 個百分點改善感到鼓舞。團隊在包裝創新方面做得非常好。我們有杯裝產品,讓消費者有一個入門價位點。

  • We have large sizes. We have bags. We are launching granola and tubs. And all of this innovation just allows us to deliver unique benefits the consumer is willing to pay for. And I would say we've taken that approach across every business.

    我們有大包裝。我們有袋裝。我們正在推出格蘭諾拉(granola)以及桶裝。所有這些創新都讓我們能提供消費者願意付費的獨特利益。我會說,我們已把這種做法推廣到每一個業務。

  • As part of our strategic revenue management plans, what we do is we have to have a minimum three-year pipeline of ideas, with price pack architecture. And so you will see that come in our salty snacks business where we put our snacks in tubs and that was highly incremental.

    作為我們策略性收益管理(strategic revenue management)計畫的一部分,我們要求在價格/包裝架構方面,至少要有三年的點子管線。因此你會在我們的鹹味零食業務看到這點:我們把零食放進桶裝,且帶來了高度的增量。

  • You will see it come in our Pillsbury business where we know single-family households that don't have a lot of kids are looking for portion sizes to be better, and we've launched unique innovation there. Old El Paso dinner for two, great innovation there.

    你也會在我們的 Pillsbury 業務看到:我們知道沒有很多孩子的單人或小家庭,會希望份量更合適,因此我們在那裡推出了獨特的創新。Old El Paso 的「兩人晚餐」就是很棒的創新。

  • And so really, I would say the team has applied this strategic principle across every category. It starts first with understanding what the consumer will value and then figuring out how to launch it in a way that maximizes total consumer benefit.

    所以我會說,團隊已把這項策略原則應用到每一個品類。第一步是理解消費者重視什麼,接著再思考如何以能最大化整體消費者利益的方式推出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

    Michael Lavery,Piper Sandler。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Just wanted to come back to some of the cost side and drilling that we specifically, obviously, we get your color on how it all rolls up into all the commodities. But how much are higher wheat costs impacting you? How covered are you in terms of maybe how to think about if costs keep going up, when that might become a pain point?

    我想回到成本面再深入問一下;很明顯,我們理解你對各項大宗商品整體彙總的說明。但小麥成本上升對你們的影響有多大?你們的避險/覆蓋程度如何?也就是說,如果成本持續上升,什麼時候可能會成為痛點?

  • And how conservative in your assumptions maybe? And I know in foodservice, there's pass-through pricing for the flour. So maybe how much of a lift from wheat next pricing is there as well?

    另外,你們的假設有多保守?我也知道在餐飲服務(foodservice)有麵粉的轉嫁定價。所以小麥帶動的下一輪定價,上調幅度大概會有多少?

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I appreciate the question. Wheat is a touch higher than our inflation expectations for the year, obviously, as part of the basket of things, along with freight and fuel and fats and oils and maybe packaging, where we're seeing that incremental pressure that puts us to the higher end of the range. I would say broadly, the -- on our foodservice business, this is a dollar margin neutral exercise where the wheat or the flower that we sell in the market effectively is index priced and changes on a pretty regular basis roughly weekly to market and was passed through straight just based on the commodity price.

    是的。謝謝你的問題。小麥價格略高於我們對今年通膨的預期;當然它只是整個籃子的一部分,還包括運輸、燃料、油脂與食用油,也許還有包材;我們看到這些額外壓力,使我們落在區間的較高端。整體而言,就我們的餐飲服務業務來說,這是一個對美元毛利中性(dollar margin neutral)的作法:我們在市場上銷售的小麥或麵粉基本上採指數定價,會相當頻繁地(大約每週)隨市場調整,並且會依商品價格直接轉嫁。

  • So that does have an inflationary impact. It's been about low single digit headwind in the past year. We'd expect that to be flip to a tailwind this year in a roughly similar range of low single digits. So that is probably still roughly unchanged, which was a touch higher, but we were expecting that coming into the year.

    因此這確實會帶來通膨影響。過去一年大約是低個位數的逆風。我們預期今年會在大致相近的低個位數區間轉為順風。所以這部分大概仍是大致不變;雖然略高一些,但我們在年初就已預期會如此。

  • I would expect, obviously, as we work our way through the year, we are mostly hedged on wheat. It's just similar to the rest of the commodity complex, we're about three-quarters hedged through the year and have visibility that far out. And obviously, beyond that, then the spot and future prices become a little bit more inflationary in the back end of our year.

    我想很明顯地,隨著我們一路走過今年,我們在小麥方面大多已做避險。這跟其他大宗商品組合很類似,我們大約有四分之三的部位已對今年做了避險,且對那麼遠的期間有可視性。而很顯然,超過那個範圍之後,現貨與期貨價格在我們年度後段就會變得更具通膨性。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. Just one on the consumer and just how to think about maybe an AI piece of it. There's things like Instacart, AI sort of shopping list creator and Kroger is doing similar things now. It's all quite new.

    好的。這很有幫助。再問一個關於消費者的問題,以及如何看待其中可能的 AI 成分。像 Instacart 這類、AI 的購物清單產生器,Kroger 現在也在做類似的事情。這些都還很新。

  • But in terms of just how consumers are making decisions and maybe not even getting to the physical shelf where point-of-sale activation is always important. How do you just think about making sure you don't miss opportunities there or you're kind of on the right side of getting picked by some of these AI-generated shopping list for example?

    但就消費者如何做決策而言,甚至可能還沒走到實體貨架、而銷售點(POS)的促購一直都很重要。你們如何思考,確保不會錯失那裡的機會,或是例如在這些 AI 生成的購物清單中被選中的那一方?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Well, thanks for the question. It is an important one. I think first, let's start with e-commerce and omnichannel. We know that whether it's human food or pet food, e-commerce is driving the majority of the growth. We see that over 20% of sales in human food and at 30% in pet food, and we expect that to accelerate.

    嗯,謝謝你的問題。這確實是個重要的問題。我想首先,先從電商與全通路談起。我們知道,不論是人類食品或寵物食品,電商正在推動大部分的成長。我們看到人類食品的銷售中超過 20% 來自電商,寵物食品則達到 30%,而且我們預期這會加速。

  • And we've really been focused on making sure that we have stood up the organization with the capabilities necessary to win there. And so far in Q1, we saw our e-commerce positions and are improved even faster than bricks and mortar.

    我們一直非常專注於確保已建立起具備在那裡取勝所需能力的組織。到目前為止在第一季,我們看到電商的表現提升,甚至比實體通路更快改善。

  • As it relates to agentic, we are really working hard to stay ahead on that. We know just in this last month alone that 40% of consumers use an AI tool to make a purchase in food. And right now, I mean, who knows? Our early estimates are that agentic commerce will be about 20% of food sales by 2030. And so it's really about making sure that we are staying ahead on the basics.

    至於代理式(agentic)方面,我們確實正努力保持領先。我們知道,光是過去這一個月,就有 40% 的消費者使用 AI 工具來進行食品購買。而現在,我是說,誰知道呢?我們初步估計,到 2030 年代理式商務將約占食品銷售的 20%。因此,關鍵在於確保我們把基本功走在前面。

  • And that's about making sure that our products are discoverable. It's making sure that the information is accurate and that they're easy to buy. And if we focus on those three areas first, we will stay ahead. But again, it is still very early in the agentic space, and we have lots to learn.

    也就是要確保我們的產品容易被發現。要確保資訊正確,而且容易購買。如果我們先把這三個面向做好,我們就能保持領先。但再說一次,代理式領域仍非常早期,我們還有很多要學。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

    Nik Modi,RBC 資本市場。

  • Nik Modi - Analyst

    Nik Modi - Analyst

  • Maybe I could just do a quick clarification on just the inflation basket. When you think about the ag complex, given all that's going on with fertilizer costs and the Super El Nino, I just would love your thoughts on kind of how we should be thinking about that or how you're thinking about that over the next kind of 12 to 18 months? I know you're not going to get into full-year guidance, but just wanted to get your thoughts on how you see the implications? And then I just have a bigger picture question on pet.

    也許我可以就通膨籃子做個快速釐清。當你看農業大宗商品(ag complex)時,考量到肥料成本以及超級聖嬰(Super El Nino)等各種因素,我很想聽聽你對未來大約 12 到 18 個月我們應該如何看待、或你們如何看待的想法。我知道你不會提供全年指引,但想聽聽你認為會有哪些影響。然後我還有一個關於寵物的更宏觀問題。

  • Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

    Kofi Bruce - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, it's a fair ask. Without getting too specific, what I would tell you is fertilizer costs, given where we are in the planting cycle more likely to be a headwind and affect crop planting decisions as you go into late spring next year, next calendar year.

    是的,這個問題很合理。在不講得太具體的前提下,我會告訴你的是:肥料成本,考量到我們目前所處的播種週期位置,更可能成為逆風,並在你進入明年、下一個曆年的晚春時,影響作物的種植決策。

  • So that would be the place where, as farmers are making trade-off decisions about their input costs, they might switch to lower fertilizer-reliant crops such as soybeans and swap out of greens, which obviously, that affects the supply of some of the grain complex which are more fertilizer reliant. So I would expect that's how it plays out and that would -- you'd start to see that pressure show up maybe with more clarity as we work our way through into the calendar year next year.

    因此,當農民在投入成本之間做取捨決策時,他們可能會轉向對肥料依賴較低的作物,例如大豆,並從綠色作物(greens)轉出;而這顯然會影響部分更依賴肥料的穀物大宗商品的供給。所以我預期會是這樣發展;而隨著我們進入明年曆年,你可能會更清楚地看到那股壓力開始浮現。

  • Nik Modi - Analyst

    Nik Modi - Analyst

  • Great. Super helpful. And then, Jeff, Dana, maybe on this pet. There's obviously some macro dynamics going on, people feeling some pressure and vet appointments are down year over year. But there's also, I think, some structural dynamics that I'd love to get your thoughts on, which is you have -- where a lot of the margins that big dogs, obviously, many of them are passing away, right?

    很好。非常有幫助。然後,Jeff、Dana,也許談談寵物這塊。顯然有一些總體動態在發生,人們感受到一些壓力,獸醫門診量也年減。但我想也有一些結構性動態,我很想聽聽你們的看法:也就是你們有——很多利潤所在的大型犬,顯然其中許多正在離世,對吧?

  • And the older consumers that own them are not replacing them and the younger consumer is taking on smaller pets like cats and smaller dogs. So just curious on your thoughts about that just general viewpoint and how you can like manage the business over time to kind of protect margins and capitalize on growth in the smaller segment?

    而飼養牠們的年長消費者並沒有再補養,年輕消費者則改養較小型的寵物,例如貓與小型犬。所以想請教你們對這個整體觀點的看法,以及你們如何在時間推移中管理業務,以保護毛利並把握小型寵物區隔的成長?

  • Jeffrey Harmening - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Harmening - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Nik, this is Jeff. Let me take that one. I think -- let me start off by saying that the biggest trend in pet food is the same one that it has been for the last couple of decades, which is humanization, which is why we're really thrilled with the development of Love Made Fresh and how that's worked. Why we bought Tiki Cat and that's grown double digits since we bought it.

    好的。Nik,我是 Jeff。我來回答這題。我想——先說,寵物食品最大的趨勢,跟過去幾十年一樣,就是「擬人化」(humanization)。這也是為什麼我們對 Love Made Fresh 的發展以及它的表現感到非常振奮。也解釋了為什麼我們收購了 Tiki Cat,而自收購以來它一直維持雙位數成長。

  • And again, it's growing strongly this year. We just gained distribution on that one. And so that's really taking off. And we even have our treat business back to growth, and we've got a good fall lineup of innovation on that. So I think the biggest trend as we think about what's going to drive our business forward is the humanization trend that Dana had mentioned briefly, some innovation we have on coming on light protection formula in the second half, and that will hit on that trend as well. So we feel great about that.

    而且今年同樣強勁成長。我們剛在那個品牌上取得更多通路鋪貨。所以那真的正在起飛。我們的零食業務也回到成長軌道,而且我們在秋季有一套很好的創新產品陣容。因此,當我們思考什麼會推動業務向前時,最大的趨勢就是 Dana 先前簡要提到的擬人化趨勢;另外,我們在下半年也會推出「輕度防護配方」(light protection formula)的創新,這也會切中該趨勢。所以我們對此感覺很好。

  • As you say, in the short term, there's a shift in dynamics and that there are fewer dogs being purchased than there were before, and there are smaller dogs rather than larger dogs. And we actually -- Blue Buffalo actually over-indexes to smaller dogs. And so we'll see how that plays out.

    如你所說,短期內確實出現動態轉變:購買狗的人比以前少,而且小型犬多於大型犬。而我們其實——Blue Buffalo 在小型犬上的占比(over-index)更高。所以我們會看看這會如何發展。

  • But there are more cats. And certainly, as people return back to the office and the economics of cat works out. And we have a strong cat business. As I mentioned, I mentioned Tiki Cat. Dana referenced Tastefuls earlier that one time was a headwind for us, but we've kind of redone all the pieces of the remarkability framework and got that going again.

    但貓的數量更多。而且當人們回到辦公室、加上養貓的經濟性更划算時,這點就更明顯。我們的貓品類業務很強。如我提到的,我提過 Tiki Cat。Dana 先前也提到 Tastefuls,過去一度是我們的逆風,但我們已把「remarkability framework」的各個環節重新打造,並讓它再次運轉起來。

  • And so as we think about our pet business, we're encouraged by the start to the year. There is work to do certainly on Wilderness, so we don't deny that. But we feel as if we've got good offerings and we see some momentum in places where pet humanization is taking place and we like our innovation for the second half of the year.

    因此,當我們思考我們的寵物業務時,我們對今年開局感到鼓舞。Wilderness 當然還有工作要做,我們不否認這一點。但我們覺得我們有不錯的產品組合,而且我們在寵物擬人化正在發生的領域看到了一些動能,並且我們也看好下半年推出的創新。

  • Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Maybe we have time for one more, Warren?

    也許我們還有時間再來一題,Warren?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt (sic - "Max) Gumport, BNP Paribas.

    Matt(原文誤記為「Max」)Gumport,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Last year, during the back half of the fiscal year, you observed consumers waiting to buy on promo, which brought along the higher cost to compete. I'm just curious for what the latest is on that front. And to what degree that could present an easy comparison for the second half of this fiscal year, you've seen some relief there?

    去年,在會計年度後半段,你們觀察到消費者會等到促銷時才購買,這也帶來了更高的競爭成本。我只是好奇這方面最新的情況如何。以及在多大程度上,這可能會讓本會計年度下半年形成較容易的比較基期;你們是否已看到一些緩解?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question. I think this all stems from the fact that we still see the consumer being very stressed especially the middle and lower-income consumer and how that translates into behaviors is, yes, they are still waiting to buy products on sale rather than waiting to buy them on everyday shelf price.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為這一切都源自於我們仍然看到消費者承受很大壓力,尤其是中低收入消費者;反映到行為上就是,是的,他們仍然會等到產品特價時才買,而不是以日常貨架價購買。

  • We haven't seen that accelerate. We'd say it's pretty similar to what we saw in the back half of last fiscal. And so when we set our guidance for this year, we assumed that that would continue throughout the fiscal year.

    我們沒有看到這種情況加速。我們會說,這與上一個會計年度後半段看到的情況相當類似。因此在我們制定今年的財測指引時,我們假設這種情況會在整個會計年度持續。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just to follow up on pricing. So clearly, last year, it was all about reducing base prices to get them in a better place. You've signaled this year that you'll less prices largely untouched. Obviously, you will leverage to some degree, innovation, renovation, pipe pack architecture and other strategic revenue initiatives to get some positive mix of the business.

    好的。很好。接著想追問一下定價。很明顯,去年重點在於下調基礎價格,使其回到更合理的位置。你們今年已表示將大致維持價格不變。顯然,你們會在某種程度上運用創新、產品翻新、產品組合/包裝架構(pack architecture)以及其他策略性營收措施,來帶動更正向的產品組合(mix)。

  • But plenty of your peers are discussing much price increases that we might see as soon as next month. To what degree are you factoring in potential market share gains that could come as the consumer shifts from businesses where there has been pricing taken to businesses like yours where there are stable list prices?

    但你們不少同業都在談論可能最快下個月就會看到更大幅度的漲價。你們在多大程度上把潛在的市占率提升納入考量——也就是當消費者從已經調漲價格的企業,轉向像你們這樣牌價相對穩定的企業時,可能帶來的市占率增長?

  • Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

    Dana McNabb - Chief Operating Officer, Group President - North America Retail and North America Pet, Director

  • Well, as you mentioned, we really focused on improving our base prices last year to bring more value to consumers, and we saw it worked. Our base stabilized. Our penetration grew. But as you rightly pointed out, the environment is more inflationary. And so we operate in 25 categories, and each one requires a specific set of actions.

    嗯,正如你提到的,我們去年確實專注於改善我們的基礎價格,為消費者帶來更多價值,而我們也看到這是有效的。我們的基礎面趨於穩定。我們的滲透率提升。但如你所正確指出的,環境更具通膨性。因此我們在 25 個品類中營運,而每一個品類都需要一套特定的行動。

  • So what we do is we use the remarkability framework. We'll assess the price value relative to the competition, and we'll continue to adapt as the environment adapts. And as far as I've talked to, our strategic revenue management toolkit is really important because we will lean in mix. That's the primary lever we want to use, but also, we'll continue to evaluate both trade and list pricing going forward.

    所以我們採用「remarkability」框架。我們會評估相對於競品的價格/價值,並且會隨著環境變化而持續調整。就我所談到的而言,我們的策略性營收管理工具組合非常重要,因為我們會更著力於產品組合(mix)。這是我們最想使用的主要槓桿,但同時,我們也會持續評估未來的通路促銷(trade)與牌價(list pricing)。

  • Jeffrey Harmening - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Harmening - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I would say just to add on to what Dana said. As we think about the momentum for the rest of the year, as you talked about our continuing momentum, the thing I'm most excited about really is that having got our prices in line is the rest of the elements of the remarkability framework, particularly our innovation, renovation on our core.

    我想補充 Dana 所說的。當我們思考今年剩餘時間的動能、以及你提到我們持續的動能時,我最興奮的一點其實是:在我們把價格調整到位之後,「remarkability」框架的其他要素,特別是我們的創新,以及對核心產品的翻新。

  • I mean our Pillsbury business, 70% of it is being renovated, and we've got really good innovation in the second quarter. We talked about Life Protection Formula, the good innovation we have coming on that as well as distribution increases on Tiki Cat. The marketing on Big G has been phenomenal.

    以我們的 Pillsbury 業務為例,其中 70% 正在進行翻新,而且我們在第二季有非常不錯的創新。我們談到 Life Protection Formula,以及我們在那方面即將推出的良好創新,還有 Tiki Cat 的通路鋪貨增加。Big G 的行銷表現非常出色。

  • I mean, Lucky Charms is back to growth, and Reese's Puffs is back to growth, and Cinnamon Toast Crunch back to growth and that has nothing to do with anything to do with price. It has to do with really good marketing and really good product news.

    我的意思是,Lucky Charms 恢復成長,Reese's Puffs 也恢復成長,Cinnamon Toast Crunch 也恢復成長,而這些都與價格無關。這是因為非常好的行銷,以及非常好的產品新訊。

  • And so as I look at the rest of the year, while I'm encouraged by the first quarter, I'm also encouraged by what we're doing on the rest of the elements of marketability framework that don't tie back to value, whether it's more proteins as you talked about, whether it's bold flavors or it's more fun on certain categories. So that's what got me excited about our ability to compete increasingly effectively as the year goes on.

    因此,當我看今年剩餘時間時,雖然我對第一季感到鼓舞,但我也對我們在「remarkability」框架其他要素上的作為感到鼓舞——那些不直接回到「價值」的部分;不論是你提到的更多蛋白質、更大膽的口味,或是在某些品類帶來更多趣味性。所以,這就是讓我對我們在今年進行中能夠愈來愈有效競爭的能力感到興奮的原因。

  • Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • All right. I think that's a good place to end it. Thanks, Max. And Warren, I think we can wrap it up here.

    好。我想這是個很好的結尾。謝謝你,Max。Warren,我想我們可以在這裡收尾了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Siemon for closing remarks.

    謝謝。我們已到達問答環節的結束。我現在把電話交回給 Jeff Siemon 作結語。

  • Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jeff Siemon - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • All right, Warren. Thank you. I appreciate everybody's good interest and discussion this morning. The IR team is available throughout the day for anyone that has follow-ups. We look forward to continuing to show good traction as we go through the rest of the year. Have a great day, everyone.

    好的,Warren。謝謝你。我很感謝大家今天早上的高度關注與討論。投資人關係(IR)團隊全天都會在,有任何後續問題都歡迎聯繫。我們期待在今年剩餘時間持續展現良好的進展。祝大家有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。