通用磨坊 (GIS) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to General Mills' third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加通用磨坊公司2026財年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係和企業財務副總裁傑夫·西蒙。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, Julianne, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for a live Q&A session on our third-quarter fiscal '26 results. I hope everyone had time to review our press release, listen to the prepared remarks and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，朱莉安娜，大家好。感謝您今天參加我們關於2026財年第三季業績的線上問答環節。我希望大家都有時間閱讀我們的新聞稿，聽取準備好的發言稿，並查看我們的簡報資料，這些資料我們今天上午已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。

It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call.

需要注意的是，在我們的問答環節中，我們可能會根據管理階層目前的觀點和假設做出一些前瞻性陳述。有關可能影響前瞻性聲明的因素以及非GAAP資訊的調節情況，請參閱今天早上的新聞稿，這些內容可能會在今天的電話會議上討論。

I'm here with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; Kofi Bruce, our CFO; and Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet. And before we get to Q&A, I'll turn it over to Jeff for some opening remarks.

我今天和我們的董事長兼執行長 Jeff Harmening、財務長 Kofi Bruce 以及北美零售和北美寵物業務集團總裁 Dana McNabb 一起在這裡。在進入問答環節之前，我先請傑夫做開場白。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everybody. We'll turn to Q&A here in a couple of minutes, but I thought I'd just take a minute or two to provide some context on what we've been through the first three quarters of this year. And then based on the progress we've been able to demonstrate, how we're positioned to deliver a significant step-up in financial performance, which will start in our fourth quarter, which is why we reaffirmed our guidance for fiscal '26.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早安。我們稍後會進入問答環節，但我想先花一兩分鐘時間，介紹一下今年前三個季度我們所經歷的情況。然後，根據我們已經取得的進展，以及我們有能力在財務業績方面取得重大進步（這將從第四季度開始），我們重申了對 2026 財年的業績預期。

As a reminder, as we entered this fiscal year, we made a proactive and strategic decision to reinvest to improve the remarkability of our brands with full awareness that this is way our near-term results as we sharpened our competitiveness. So now three quarters into that plan, we're seeing strength and momentum on critical building blocks for sustainable growth, namely household penetration, improved baseline volume, distribution and market shares.

提醒大家，在本財年伊始，我們做出了積極主動的策略決策，即對品牌進行再投資，以提高品牌的卓越性。我們充分意識到，這將影響我們近期的業績，因為我們提高了自身的競爭力。現在，該計劃已實施四分之三，我們看到可持續成長的關鍵組成部分，即家庭滲透率、改善的基準銷售、分銷和市場份額，都展現出了強勁的勢頭。

And this progress only reinforces our conviction that this strategy is the right one for General Mills. In North America Retail, our investments and remarkability are resonating with consumers. We're rebuilding household penetration and baseline growth, which are the key indicators of future growth. In Pet, we're adding households as well and fueling our fast-growing cat feeding portfolio and also taking steps to accelerate our growth through Love Made Fresh. And we're continuing to be competitive in North America foodservice and international.

這項進展更加堅定了我們對通用磨坊採取這項策略的信念。在北美零售業，我們的投資和卓越表現引起了消費者的共鳴。我們正在重建家庭滲透率和基線成長，這是未來成長的關鍵指標。在寵物領域，我們也不斷拓展家庭用戶，並為我們快速成長的貓糧產品組合提供動力，同時也透過 Love Made Fresh 採取措施加速我們的成長。我們在北美餐飲服務業和國際市場上持續保持競爭力。

We know there's still more work ahead. We know that. But with most of reinvestment phase behind us, we expect to deliver meaningful better top line and bottom line performance in Q4 and beyond. I also want to talk briefly about the other piece of news you may have seen yesterday, which was our agreement to sell our Brazil business. And this builds on a strong track record we have of portfolio shaping, both in acquisitions and divestitures, nearly a third of our portfolio once this is complete over the last number of years.

我們知道前面還有更多工作要做。我們知道這一點。但隨著大部分再投資階段的結束，我們預計在第四季及以後將實現營收和利潤的顯著改善。我還想簡單談談昨天你們可能看到的另一則新聞，那就是我們同意出售我們在巴西的業務。而且，這建立在我們強大的投資組合塑造記錄之上，無論是收購還是剝離，過去幾年中，一旦完成，我們的投資組合將減少近三分之一。

And Brazil includes our Yoki and Kitano brands. And while it's not on the scale of Pet or the yogurt transactions, it's the same disciplined approach we've consistently taken to reshape our portfolio. And namely, our desire to prioritize our resources and investments on brands and platforms where we have the strongest opportunity to generate profitable growth. This deal will enhance our margins and increases the International segments focus on our key global platforms, including super premium ice cream, Mexican foods, snack bars and pet food, where we have stronger margin and excellent growth prospects. So with this transaction, as I said, we've turned over nearly a third of our net sales in fiscal 2028.

巴西市場則包括我們的 Yoki 和 Kitano 品牌。雖然規模不如 Pet 或優格交易，但這與我們一直以來重塑投資組合所採取的嚴謹方法是一樣的。具體而言，我們希望優先將資源和投資投入最有希望實現獲利成長的品牌和平台。這項交易將提高我們的利潤率，並加強國際業務部門對我們關鍵全球平台的關注，包括超高端冰淇淋、墨西哥食品、零食棒和寵物食品，這些領域我們的利潤率更高，成長前景也更好。正如我所說，透過這筆交易，我們已經將 2028 財年淨銷售額的近三分之一轉移出去了。

As we look to fiscal '27 as well, as we said in our press release, our number one goal is going to be to continue to improve our organic sales results, while at the same time, maintaining our industry-leading HMM as well as the transformation initiatives we have to make sure we're maintaining efficiency. In 2026, we're really pleased with the pound share competitiveness we've had in NAR as well as dollar share in the other segments. As we look at fiscal '27, we'll aim to improve our dollar share performance in NAR really, as we've lapped a lot of these price investments and the rest of our Remarkability Framework elements take hold.

展望 2027 財年，正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們的首要目標是繼續提高有機銷售業績，同時保持我們行業領先的 HMM 以及我們為確保保持效率而採取的轉型舉措。2026年，我們對在北美地區取得的英鎊市場份額競爭力以及其他細分市場的美元市場份額都非常滿意。展望 2027 財年，我們將致力於提高我們在北美地區的美元份額表現，因為我們已經完成了許多價格投資，並且我們卓越框架的其他要素也開始發揮作用。

So with that, we're confident in the strategy we have and we know we're making progress. We will continue to do that in Q4 and into fiscal '27. And with that, let's open it up for Q&A.

因此，我們對現有的策略充滿信心，並且知道我們正在取得進展。我們將在第四季以及2027財年繼續這樣做。接下來，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作說明）安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Great. Thanks so much for the question. Good morning, everybody. Maybe Jeff, by the end of this fiscal year, General Mills will have the bulk of the pricing investments behind it, along with a lot of the remarkability work. You mentioned in your prepared remarks your expectation for more stable pricing next year as you lap the pricing. So I guess the key metric will be right on general return to some level of volume growth in fiscal '27 even in the context of category growth that remains for now, anyway, below the longer-term level. I was hoping really for whatever you can share on expectations along these lines at this point, knowing you're not obviously going to get into like specific '27 guidance yet.

偉大的。非常感謝你的提問。大家早安。傑夫，或許到本財年結束時，通用磨坊的大部分定價投資以及許多卓越性方面的工作都將完成。您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，隨著定價策略的逐步完善，您預計明年的價格會更加穩定。所以我認為，關鍵指標將是 2027 財年銷售成長能否整體恢復到一定水平，即使目前品類成長仍低於長期水準。我真心希望您能就這方面的預期分享一些信息，我知道您顯然不會在這個時候給出具體的 2027 年指導意見。

Yeah. I mean, Andrew, you're on the right track in terms of our thinking. What I would say is that we look at fiscal '27, our goal really is going to be to increase our competitiveness in NAR and dollar terms. And this year, we certainly did in pound terms as a result of all the pricing actions to be more competitive there. And then 27, we'll try to maintain the pound as well as we can. And at the same time, let our innovation and the renovation on our core and our improved marketing and ROIs on our marketing campaigns do the job of increasing our dollar sales results.

是的。我的意思是，安德魯，你的想法是對的。我想說的是，展望 2027 財年，我們的目標是提高我們在北美房地產市場和美元方面的競爭力。今年，由於我們採取了一系列定價措施以提高競爭力，以英鎊計價，我們的業績確實有所增長。然後到了27歲，我們會盡力維持英鎊匯率穩定。同時，讓我們透過創新、核心業務的革新、行銷策略的改進以及行銷活動的投資報酬率，來提高我們的銷售額。

And so what we feel good about is that we've got the building blocks in place. And look, we've taken a step up on new product innovation and renovation this year from where we were before. I would look for us to take another step forward as we look at next year, bolt-on innovation and renovation, particularly in NAR and in Pet. And so that will be our goal.

因此，我們感到欣慰的是，我們已經打好了基礎。你看，今年我們在新產品創新和改造方面比以前更進一步了。展望明年，我希望我們能更進一步，進行補充創新和改造，尤其是在北美房地產和寵物產業。所以，那將是我們的目標。

It's a very volatile world. So what exactly that yields, we'll talk about in June. We talked about at CAGNY, our category is growing about 1%. But as I said, it's volatile, we'll come back with a revised view of what we think our categories will grow. But I can tell you definitively that our goal will be to increase our dollar share competitiveness across NAR as we have done in the other three segments.

這是一個非常動盪的世界。那麼具體會帶來什麼結果，我們將在六月討論。我們在 CAGNY 會議上討論過，我們這個行業正在成長約 1%。但正如我所說，市場波動很大，我們會根據市場狀況調整對各類別成長的看法。但我可以明確地告訴你們，我們的目標是提高我們在北美房地產市場的美元份額競爭力，就像我們在其他三個細分市場所做的那樣。

Got it. Okay, thanks for that. And then price mix, obviously, in your categories, I think, has continued to be positive despite some of your price investments. I guess what are you seeing competitively in your key categories sort of along these lines following your own price investments? Thanks so much.

知道了。好的，謝謝。顯然，我認為，儘管你們在一些價格方面進行了投資，但你們各個品類的價格組合仍然保持積極態勢。我想問的是，根據您自身的價格投資，您在主要類別中看到了哪些競爭優勢？非常感謝。

Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for the question. What I would say from a price mix standpoint is we have seen price mix in our categories up a little bit. That is behind some small brand innovation. But predominantly, in terms of our price mix this year, as you know, in the front half, it was about investing to get our base shelf prices right. It was not about promotion activity, adding frequency or depth. It was about getting below key clips and gap to the competition getting that right, which is why our price mix is down.

早安，安德魯。謝謝你的提問。從價格組合的角度來看，我們看到我們各個品類的價格組合都略有上漲。這就是一些小品牌創新背後的原因。但就我們今年的價格組合而言，正如您所知，上半年我們主要致力於投資，以確保我們的基本貨架價格合理。這與推廣活動、增加頻率或深度無關。關鍵在於找到低於關鍵片段的價格，並與競爭對手拉開差距，做到這一點，這就是我們價格組合下降的原因。

As we start to lap that, we lap it a little bit in the back half of this fiscal year, but really the full lapping will occur in the beginning of next fiscal year. We're starting, and we expect to see that price gap close, starting first with our Pillsbury business, then cereal, and then we'll start to see some of our fruit snacks come along. And we do expect to get back to price mix growth in fiscal '27.

當我們開始逐步實現這一目標時，在本財政年度的後半段我們會稍微實現一下，但真正完全實現這一目標將在下一個財政年度的開始階段發生。我們已經開始行動了，我們預計價格差距會逐漸縮小，首先從我們的 Pillsbury 業務開始，然後是穀物，之後我們將開始看到一些水果零食也加入進來。我們預計在 2027 財年將恢復物價組合成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

莉亞喬丹，高盛集團。

Thank you. Good morning. Just kind of building on some of that. You called out the step-up in innovation this year. Just can you talk about how that's been resonating so far? How is the growth tracking for new products versus the 25% goal that you had stated previously? And as we look ahead, I know you called out strong seasonal events for 4Q, what should we be looking for? Any early commentary on '27 as well? Thank you.

謝謝。早安.只是在此基礎上進行一些拓展。你指出了今年創新方面的顯著進步。能談談目前為止，這種反響如何嗎？新產品的成長追蹤情況與您先前設定的 25% 的目標相比如何？展望未來，我知道您曾預測第四季會有強勁的季節性事件發生，我們該關注哪些方面？關於1927年的情況，還有什麼早期評論嗎？謝謝。

Overall, I would say we're really pleased with our innovation, and we're tracking at about 25%, maybe a little higher in North America Retail and between 20% and 25% for the portfolio in aggregate. And I'm really pleased with what we've seen out of NAR, so maybe I have Dana to kind of give a little bit of color on kind of what's resonating.

總的來說，我對我們的創新非常滿意，我們的創新率約為 25%，北美零售業的創新率可能略高一些，而整個投資組合的創新率在 20% 到 25% 之間。我對我們從 NAR 那裡看到的成果感到非常滿意，所以也許我可以請 Dana 來稍微介紹一下哪些方面引起了共鳴。

Yeah. From a NAR perspective, I think we'll land a little bit higher than the 25% growth from new products. We have really leaned into mainstream premium benefits such as protein and fiber, better tasting, news on some of our snacks items and that is resonating really well. I'll use Cheerios Protein as an example, the biggest [brand] getting a protein benefit. That's going to be $100 million by the end of this year, some of the taste renovation that we've done in our salty snacks and our fruit snacks that is resonating incredibly well.

是的。從 NAR 的角度來看，我認為新產品帶來的 25% 的成長會略高於預期。我們真正注重主流的高端產品優勢，例如蛋白質和纖維、更好的口味，以及一些零食產品的最新消息，這些都引起了很好的反響。我以 Cheerios Protein 為例，它是最大的蛋白質品牌。到今年年底，這將達到 1 億美元，這要歸功於我們在鹹味零食和水果零食中所做的一些口味改良，這些改良反應非常好。

And then, of course, big businesses like Pillsbury and grain where we've been able to bring great tasting, bigger news or protein news, it's resonating really well. So we're getting really good trial and repeat on our new products this year, which, of course, is encouraging for next year because it means year two on those items will be helpful to us next year. And then I think the plans next year are even better. We're going to see another step change in new products, again, better-for-you, functional nutrition.

當然，像 Pillsbury 這樣的大企業，以及穀物產業，我們能夠為他們帶來美味可口的食品、更勁爆的新聞或蛋白質方面的新聞，都引起了很好的反響。所以今年我們的新產品試用和重複測試的效果非常好，這當然對明年是個好消息，因為這意味著這些產品的第二年將對我們有所幫助。而且我認為明年的計劃會更好。我們將看到新產品迎來另一次變革，再次強調，是更有益於人體健康的功能性營養品。

We're bringing protein to the number one cereal, Honey Nut Cheerios. Our GHOST protein bars, which we've just started to launch, are turning very well. We're going to scale that nationally. We'd make fiber taste great. So we've got Annie's fruit snacks coming with fiber, Larabar protein and fiber, :ratio Granola and fiber and protein.

我們將蛋白質添加到排名第一的麥片中——蜂蜜堅果麥片。我們剛開始推出的 GHOST 蛋白棒銷售情況非常好。我們將把這項措施推廣到全國。我們會讓膳食纖維變得美味可口。所以我們有 Annie's 富含纖維的水果零食、Larabar 富含蛋白質和纖維的零食、:ratio Granola 富含纖維和蛋白質的零食。

And then as I look to some of the bold flavors we're launching, we are launching a new authentic Mexican brand called La Tiara. We've got Hot Honey coming on Pillsbury biscuits. We've got Tabasco, Old El Paso kits and protein shells and Chimichanga Kits. So you name it. We have got really good innovation coming that's starting to ship this quarter, and we will support that with double-digit media investment, seasonal events, and really good in-store and online execution.

然後，當我展望我們即將推出的一些大膽口味時，我們將推出一個名為 La Tiara 的全新正宗墨西哥品牌。皮爾斯伯里餅乾即將推出熱蜂蜜口味。我們有塔巴斯科辣椒醬、老埃爾帕索辣椒醬套裝、蛋白質餅皮和墨西哥玉米捲套裝。諸如此類。我們即將推出一些非常好的創新產品，這些產品將從本季度開始交付，我們將透過兩位數的媒體投入、季節性活動以及非常好的店內和線上執行來支援這些產品。

And I feel confident that now that we've got the shelf prices right and we've got pounds somewhat stabilized, when we lean into the rest of the remarkable experience framework, we'll be able to improve our performance next year.

我相信，既然我們已經把貨架價格定好了，英鎊也相對穩定下來，當我們進一步完善卓越體驗框架的其他部分時，我們明年就能提高業績。

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just a follow-up on Love Made Fresh. You called out an acceleration in recent weeks after some of the changes that you planned to make that you highlighted previously at CAGNY. Just any more color on the detail of the magnitude of that acceleration, how we should think about further distribution growth from here. And then also an update on how your on-shelf availability is tracking. I know that's been an area of focus for you guys.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後是《新鮮愛情》的後續報導。最近幾週，在你計劃進行一些你之前在CAGNY上重點提到的變革之後，你指出了一些進展加速的情況。再詳細說說這種加速的幅度，以及我們該如何看待從現在開始的進一步分佈成長。此外，也會回報您的貨架供應情況追蹤情況。我知道這一直是你們關注的重點領域。

Yeah. Thank you for the question. I think I'll just reiterate that we are pleased with where we see the Love Made Fresh launch so far. We've made really good progress in a lot of areas. We like our execution. We're above the 5,000 mark on coolers right now. We think our marketing execution has been strong, and we are getting great product reviews from retailers and from consumers.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我想再次重申，我們對 Love Made Fresh 目前為止的上市情況感到滿意。我們在很多領域都取得了非常好的進展。我們對我們的執行效果很滿意。目前我們的冷藏箱數量已經超過 5000 台了。我們認為我們的行銷執行非常出色，我們從零售商和消費者那裡都獲得了很好的產品評價。

As we pointed out, the place that we needed to focus was strengthening our turns at shelf. And so the number one place was you mentioned our on-shelf availability. And what we realized is we needed to have our store reps go to the stores every week actually to make sure that the coolers were full.

正如我們所指出的，我們需要重點關注的是加強貨架週轉率。所以，您提到的第一點就是我們貨架上的商品供應情況。我們意識到，我們需要安排門市代表每週去門市實地考察，確保冷藏櫃裝滿冷藏櫃。

And we've had that happen now for about three weeks. And we have seen a step-up in terms in those stores. But again, it's only three weeks. So I wouldn't want to lean into any specific number there, but we have seen a step up.

這種情況已經持續大約三週了。我們已經看到這些門市的條件有所改善。但話說回來，也只有三週。所以我不想給出具體的數字，但我們已經看到有所進步。

The other two items that I think are going to be really important to improving our turns are we didn't have a standup resealable pack. And that pouch format is 55% of fresh sales. That is launching now, and we have that coming into the marketplace. And that's two times the dollar ring of rolls. So that's going to really help us from a turns standpoint.

我認為另外兩項對改善我們的比賽表現至關重要的因素是：我們沒有可立式密封包裝。而袋裝產品佔新鮮食品銷售額的 55%。該產品現在正在上市，即將進入市場。那可是捲餅價格的兩倍啊。所以從轉彎的角度來看，這真的會對我們很有幫助。

And then from building awareness, we're really pleased with how we've built broad awareness, but we got to come down a little bit more in the marketing funnel and reach consumers and pet parents, tell them where we can find the product and do more to convert to trial.

在提升品牌知名度方面，我們非常滿意我們所取得的廣泛知名度，但我們還需要在行銷漏斗中進一步深入，接觸消費者和寵物主人，告訴他們哪裡可以找到產品，並採取更多措施促成試用。

So where we're at the next month is we are definitely going to be adding more coolers. We're going to make sure our shelf availability in those coolers is better with reps visiting the store once a week, and we're confident that we will see our turns improve.

所以下個月我們肯定會增加更多的冷藏設備。我們將確保冷藏櫃的貨架供應更加充足，代表們每週都會到店巡視一次，我們相信我們的周轉率將會提高。

Very helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

David Palmer，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. I wanted to ask you about just the results you're getting from not just the remarkability framework, but just the levels of spending, the kinds of spending that you're making and maybe juxtapose it to what you did pre-COVID. A lot of -- 5% of sales and innovation is the activity the rate that you had pre-COVID and you've kind of gotten back there. Promotion spending has been restored and our and you're leaning in on marketing as well.

謝謝。我想問您，不僅是卓越性框架，還有您的支出水平、支出類型，以及您從中獲得的結果，並可能將其與新冠疫情前的情況進行對比。很多——5%的銷售和創新活動是你們在新冠疫情前的速度，你們現在已經基本恢復到那個水準了。促銷支出已經恢復，我們和你們也在加大行銷力道。

So I'm just wondering in that immediate pre-COVID period, you'd stabilized your organic sales. I'm wondering what is different today versus then? Just in terms of the responses you're getting from each of these sort of growth spending activities? And I have a quick follow-up.

所以我想知道，在新冠疫情爆發前的那段時間裡，你們的自然銷售額是否已經穩定下來了。我想知道今天和過去有什麼不同？就您從每項此類成長支出活動中獲得的回饋而言？我還有一個後續問題。

I would say, David, what's been different in the last three quarters is that we've been investing a lot more in our base pricing, as Dana talked about, to maintain our competitiveness and improve our competitiveness. And you're right, the level of new product innovation we have is approaching pre-COVID levels, which we feel good about. Our marketing is approaching pre-COVID that feel good about. And now kind of our price gaps relative to competition will be approaching pre-COVID levels, which it hasn't been for the last couple of years, so which is why we made this change in pricing.

大衛，我想說，過去三個季度最大的不同之處在於，正如達娜所說，我們加大了對基礎定價的投入，以保持和提高我們的競爭力。你說得對，我們的新產品創新水平正在接近新冠疫情前的水平，我們對此感到欣慰。我們的行銷正在恢復到新冠疫情前的水平，這讓我們感到欣慰。現在，我們與競爭對手之間的價格差距將接近新冠疫情前的水平，這是過去幾年都沒有達到的水平，因此我們才做出了這項定價調整。

And so it's also why it gives us confidence as we look forward to Q4 and next year that our level of competitiveness in terms of dollars will improve because, as you said, we're getting back to the level of activity, whether it's on the marketing side and innovation and the media spending or whether it's our price competitiveness that we saw before.

所以，這也讓我們對第四季度和明年充滿信心，相信我們在美元方面的競爭力將會提高，因為正如你所說，我們正在恢復到以前的活躍水平，無論是在市場營銷、創新和媒體支出方面，還是在我們以前所擁有的價格競爭力方面。

I would actually say Dana and her team have done a great job or level of renovation on our core is actually probably better than it was pre-COVID. And so that's what gives us confidence that having gotten past the bulk of this pricing activity now on base price that the rest of the elements of our marketing framework will work a lot harder for us. So you've kind of hit on our thinking, which is that's what we see.

我個人認為，Dana 和她的團隊做得非常出色，我們核心區域的翻新程度實際上可能比新冠疫情之前還要好。因此，我們有信心，既然已經完成了大部分定價活動，現在基本價格方面，我們行銷框架的其他要素將為我們發揮更大的作用。所以你其實說出了我們的想法，那就是我們看到的。

The only other difference I would say externally is the consumer is a little bit more stressed than they were in 2019. And so that's why we see our level of promotion activity up a little bit higher. Even if the depth isn't higher, even if the frequency isn't higher, consumers are taking a little bit more -- are taking a little bit more away on promotion, which is why you see only a little bit of price mix in our categories. That's probably the one thing that hasn't bounced back all the way yet. But that's a structural thing. That is clearly cyclical. And as the economy improves, we would anticipate the consumers would improve with it.

我覺得從外部來看，唯一的不同之處在於，消費者比 2019 年更有壓力。所以，這就是為什麼我們看到我們的促銷活動力度略有提高的原因。即使深度沒有增加，頻率也沒有增加，消費者在促銷方面投入的精力也更多了，這就是為什麼你在我們的產品類別中只看到少量的價格組合。那可能是唯一還沒有完全恢復的事情。但那是結構性問題。這顯然是周期性的。隨著經濟的改善，我們預期消費者的消費能力也會隨之提高。

That's very helpful. Just one quick question, maybe this one is for Kofi. Just in terms of the gross margin, this quarter, it was relatively low, maybe lower than what we typically see in fiscal 3Q versus your overall fiscal year. And I'm just I'm wondering where you think -- if you can have a stable organic sales in fiscal '27, where do you think gross margins can live for this company? And I'm really wondering about maybe something in the low 30s versus the mid-30s. The Street's near 34% for fiscal '27. And then just wondering if you do have a stable organic sales, can you get back to mid-30s in terms of gross margins? Thank you.

那很有幫助。我還有一個問題，也許這個問題是問科菲的。就本季毛利率而言，相對較低，可能低於我們通常在第三財季看到的毛利率，也低於整個財年的毛利率。我只是想知道，如果您能在 2027 財年保持穩定的有機銷售額，您認為這家公司的毛利率能達到什麼水平？我真的很想知道，或許30歲出頭比30歲中段更適合。華爾街對2027財年的預期接近34%。那麼，我想知道，如果你們的自然銷售額穩定成長，毛利率能否恢復到 30% 左右？謝謝。

David, thanks for the question. I think you're starting with the kind of the right frame as we see it. We do see stable to growing volume as an enabler for returning and restoring our margins. We're not ready yet to maybe go on record on where we expect them to be for '27. But I think the path to improvement is certainly paved and aided by volume stability.

大衛，謝謝你的提問。我認為你目前的出發點是正確的。我們認為，銷售量維持穩定成長是恢復和重建利潤率的推動因素。我們目前還不方便公開預測他們 2027 年的成績。但我認為，銷量穩定無疑會為改進鋪平道路並提供幫助。

What we find is when we have that, leverage improves, obviously, across the enterprise. We get more leverage out of our HMM cost savings, which is always a significant contributor to stability and margin expansion in the middle of the P&L as well supporting reinvestment in the business.

我們發現，當我們擁有了這一點，企業的整體效益顯然會提升。我們從 HMM 成本節約中獲得了更大的槓桿作用，這始終是損益表中段穩定性和利潤率擴張的重要貢獻者，同時也支持對業務的再投資。

As a reminder, we are in the middle of a multiyear transformation initiative, which I would expect next year on top of this year will add meaningfully to productivity. And as Jeff referenced, we would expect to see improvement in price mix and be able to leverage more of the full suite of our SRM levers as we step into next year.

再次提醒大家，我們正處於一項多年轉型計畫之中，我預計明年加上今年的成果，將顯著提高生產力。正如 Jeff 所提到的，我們預計明年價格結構​​將有所改善，並且能夠更充分地利用我們的 SRM 全套槓桿。

So I think the combination of all those things will help us start moving back. In terms of where we'd like to be for '27, I'll go on record as we get out of Q4 and into the first quarter of next year.

所以我認為所有這些因素結合起來將有助於我們開始復甦。至於我們希望在 2027 年達到什麼目標，我會在第四季結束、明年第一季開始時正式表態。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you. Good morning. Just maybe following up on that and drilling in a little bit more to the inflation piece of it. You cited some inflation pressure this quarter already. Maybe for -- looking ahead, can you give a sense of what you see for fiscal '27, maybe both with and without potentially elevated oil or diesel or oil derivative costs and just an early sense of kind of how it's shaping up? And I know you've got the HMM savings, you've given some color on, but how hard does that have to work to offset some of the inflation you might be looking at?

謝謝。早安.或許可以就此展開，更深入探討通貨膨脹這方面的問題。您已經提到本季存在一些通膨壓力。展望未來，您能否談談您對 2027 財年的看法，包括考慮和不考慮石油、柴油或石油衍生品成本可能上漲的情況，並初步了解目前的情況？我知道您有 HMM 的存款，您也透露了一些情況，但是這些存款需要多大的作用才能抵消您可能面臨的一些通貨膨脹？

I appreciate the question, and obviously, I'm not prepared to give you sort of the full suite of our assumptions for '27 yet. But our best estimate right now on -- in range of inflation is roughly in line with this year, inclusive of maybe on margin at the far end of the range, some more modest pressure from -- for the macro basket.

感謝您的提問，顯然，我目前還無法向您提供我們對 2027 年的所有假設。但我們目前對通膨的最佳估計——大致與今年持平，包括在區間遠端可能略有波動，宏觀經濟籃子麵臨一些較為溫和的壓力。

Labor probably still remains one of the biggest inflationary components of our cost structure, just as we think about it, either embedded cost or whether it's in logistics or manufacturing or pass-through even in our transformed commodities. So I'd share that as a reminder. I think the other critical tent poles are we would expect another year of industry-leading HMM at least 4% and then as I referenced in my last answer, some significant contributions on top of this year's significant contributions from our transformation initiatives to help round out the picture.

勞動成本可能仍然是我們成本結構中最大的通膨因素之一，正如我們所想，無論是內嵌成本，還是物流、製造或轉嫁成本，甚至是加工商品中的成本。所以我想分享一下，以作提醒。我認為其他關鍵支柱是，我們預計 HMM 將再保持一年的行業領先地位，至少達到 4%，然後正如我在上一個回答中提到的，我們的轉型計劃將在今年的重大貢獻基礎上做出一些重大貢獻，以幫助完善整體情況。

I think it's important, before I leave this point on '27, just to make sure that I give you maybe some of the other sides of the ledger. There will be obviously lapping the 53rd week, which is a tailwind this year, we'll turn into a headwind next year. We've got one month of US yogurt results reflected in this year's results. And as a reminder, that closed at the end of June.

我認為，在我結束對「27」這個主題的討論之前，有必要向你們介紹事情的其他方面。顯然，第 53 週將會是順風，但明年就會變成逆風。今年的結果中已經反映了一個月的美國優格銷售結果。再次提醒大家，該項目已於六月底關閉。

And so we'll expect to see that as some headwind. And then incentive comp, we would expect to normalize next year. So those are kind of three things on the other side of the ledger as we look at the next year's tent pole assumptions.

因此，我們預計這將帶來一些不利影響。至於激勵薪酬，我們預計明年會恢復正常。所以，在展望來年的關鍵假設時，我們需要從另一個角度來看這三件事。

Okay. That's really helpful. And just as you look at finishing fiscal '26, early in the year, you had indicated you'd expect positive organic revenue growth in fiscal 4Q. Now the language is just improved trends. Could you maybe be specific if positive organic revenue growth is off the table? Or is that still something that you think is in region? And if so, would that be a total company for NAR, maybe both? Or what's the right way to think about how the rest of the year unfolds?

好的。這真的很有幫助。就在您展望 2026 財年即將結束之際，年初您曾表示，預計第四財季將實現正的內生性收入成長。現在這種語言只是在趨勢上有所改進。您能否具體說明一下，是否完全不可能實現有機收入正成長？或者你仍然認為那是該地區的事情？如果真是這樣，那對 NAR 來說會是完全獨立的公司嗎？或許兩者都會？或者，我們該如何正確看待今年剩下的時間會如何發展？

Sure. So if you kind of track from the midpoint of our guidance, implied in the annual guidance is probably about 75 basis points, 80 basis points at the midpoint of organic sales growth. While we're expecting continued competitiveness so pound share, NAR, dollar share in the rest of our business to hold, we're not banking in this guidance on a dramatic turn in market performance in Q4. Instead, we're expecting a lot of this come from some mechanical factors.

當然。因此，如果您從我們指引的中點開始追踪，那麼年度指引中隱含的有機銷售成長中點可能約為 75 個基點到 80 個基點。雖然我們預計競爭力將持續增強，因此英鎊份額、NAR份額以及我們其他業務的美元份額將保持不變，但我們並不指望這一預期能夠帶來第四季度市場表現的劇變。相反，我們預期這很大程度上是由一些機械因素造成的。

So we referenced in our remarks, significant retailer inventory headwind in Q3 that we would expect to flip to a tailwind in Q4. And that's, on its own, probably worth about 200 basis points of benefit to organic growth in Q4. And we'd expect the rest of the improvement to come from the reversal of trade expense timing, which was a headwind in Q3 and will become a pretty healthy tailwind as we lap last year's Q4.

因此，我們在發言中提到，第三季零售商庫存面臨重大不利因素，我們預期第四季將轉為有利因素。單憑這一點，就可能為第四季的有機成長帶來約 200 個基點的收益。我們預計其餘的改善將來自貿易費用時間的逆轉，這在第三季度是一個不利因素，但隨著我們超越去年第四季度，它將成為相當健康的順風。

Okay. Great. Thanks so much.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝。

Alexia Howard, AllianceBernstein.

Alexia Howard，AllianceBernstein。

Good morning, everyone. Can I ask about the foodservice weakness this time around? You mentioned bakery flour volumes. Is that something that's likely to persist? And what does it tell us about some of those category or channel dynamics in that segment?

各位早安。請問這次餐飲服務方面的不足是什麼？你提到了烘焙用麵粉的用量。這種情況可能會持續下去嗎？這又能告訴我們該細分市場中某些品類或通路的動態變化嗎？

Yeah. Alexia, for Foodservice overall, let me take a step back and then we'll get the flour here eventually. The -- as we think about Foodservice, the eating occasions at home are about 86%, and that's been pretty stable over the last few months or so. Commercial traffic is down about 0.5 point and noncommercial traffic is up about 1 point. As a reminder, we over-indexed in the noncommercial space.

是的。Alexia，就整個餐飲服務而言，讓我先退後一步，然後我們最終會把麵粉拿過來。當我們考慮餐飲服務時，在家用餐的比例約為 86%，而且在過去的幾個月裡一直相當穩定。商業交通量下降約 0.5 個百分點，非商業交通量上升約 1 個百分點。再次提醒，我們在非商業領域的投資比例過高。

And as we look at the third quarter, you see our volume decline a little bit and you see the profitability decline. I would remind you on the profit side, about half of the decline is the yogurt divestiture. So when you see that big number for that decline, know that about half of it is yogurt. And about another -- about 30%, 35% is flour. So those are the two biggest items.

當我們審視第三季時，你會發現我們的銷售量略有下降，獲利能力也有所下降。我想提醒您，在利潤方面，大約一半的下滑是由於優格業務的剝離造成的。所以，當你看到銷量大幅下降時，要知道其中大約一半是優格。還有大約 30% 到 35% 是麵粉。所以，以上就是兩項最重要的內容。

As I think about the fourth quarter, we're not thinking that our flour business will come back in the fourth quarter of this year. We'll see what happens because of the complex nature of distribution and food service, the movement is a little bit slower one way or the other.

展望第四季度，我認為我們的麵粉業務在今年第四季不會恢復。我們將拭目以待，由於分銷和餐飲服務的複雜性，這種趨勢無論朝哪個方向發展都會稍微緩慢一些。

I am really proud of our competitiveness in K-12 schools, the fact that we've changed to natural colors ahead of when we said we were going to do and we're competing quite effectively outside of flour. So outside of that one piece of our Foodservice business, pretty pleased with our performance and our level of competitiveness. And this forecast we have for the rest of this year wouldn't contemplate becoming more competitive on flour for the next three months.

我為我們在 K-12 學校的競爭力感到非常自豪，我們比原計劃提前轉向天然色素，而且我們在麵粉以外的領域也取得了相當不錯的競爭成績。所以除了餐飲服務業務這一項之外，我們對我們的業績和競爭力水平相當滿意。我們對今年剩餘時間的預測並未考慮在未來三個月內提高麵粉市場的競爭力。

Got it. And then can I follow up on Love Made Fresh? You obviously had the 5,000 cooler goal for the end of January, which I think you hit and probably a little bit above that now. Is there another milestone a few months down the road in terms of additional distribution that you can share? Or at the moment, is the focus on getting the terms up before you have another big move forward on the distribution side?

知道了。那麼，我可以繼續跟進《新鮮愛情》嗎？顯然，你們的目標是在一月底前完成 5000 個冷藏箱的銷售，我認為你們已經實現了這個目標，而且現在可能還略微超過了這個目標。幾個月後，在分銷方面是否會有其他里程碑式的進度可以分享？或者，目前重點是先敲定條款，然後再在分銷方面取得進一步的重大進展？

Yeah. Alexia, on the distribution side, I think there are the number of coolers and then there are kind of the distribution within those coolers. To the extent, we just launched a stand-up resealable pouch. That will add distribution, but it may not have the number of stores. It will just add the number of SKUs we have in the store we're currently in. And we think that's going to be the most productive. So our focus really is on enhancing the turns where we are.

是的。Alexia，就分銷方面而言，我認為首先是冷卻器的數量，然後是這些冷卻器內部的分銷情況。目前，我們剛推出了一款可自立的密封袋。這將增加分銷管道，但可能無法增加門市數量。它只會加上我們目前所在商店的 SKU 數量。我們認為這將是最有成效的。所以我們的重點其實是加強我們現有的優勢。

And to the extent we get a little more distribution, that's okay, too. But as Dana talked about, making sure that availability has increased significantly and that our marketing is taking place at the kind of the lower end of the funnel, closer to the point versus, that's going to be our focus.

如果分銷範圍能再擴大一些，那也挺好。但正如 Dana 所說，確保產品供應量大幅增加，並且我們的行銷活動發生在銷售漏斗的底部，更接近銷售點，這將是我們的重點。

We know we have a great product. And now we have good distribution. And so now the job to do is make sure we keep improving the turns where we are. As Dana said, three weeks in to having more people at the shelf more often, we're seeing positive benefits to that. And we'll look to see that continue as well as redoing our marketing mix so that we have more kind of at the point of attack, if you will.

我們知道我們的產品很棒。現在我們的通路很完善。所以現在我們要做的就是確保我們不斷改進我們現有的各項工作。正如達娜所說，在增加貨架旁人手、提高人手使用頻率的三週後，我們看到了積極的成效。我們將繼續保持這種勢頭，同時調整我們的行銷組合，以便在攻擊點上取得更大的優勢。

Great. Thank you very much. I'll pass it on.

偉大的。非常感謝。我會轉達的。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow，TD Cowen。

Hi, thanks for the question. Dana and Jeff, I was hoping to dive into the high single-digit decline in snacks. The salty snacks segment of the market has become much more competitive with price cuts and innovation. And I wanted to know if some of that's just adjacent to you, but do you think that's carving into your brands at all? And what gets us back to growth in that segment?

您好，感謝您的提問。Dana 和 Jeff，我原本希望深入研究零食價格的個位數高跌幅。隨著價格下降和產品創新，鹹味零食市場的競爭變得更加激烈。我想知道，其中一些因素是否與你無關，但你認為這些因素是否會對你的品牌造成任何傷害？那麼，什麼才能讓我們在該領域重回成長軌道呢？

Thank you for the question, Rob. Good morning. I think starting first with salty. We, in the categories we compete in, are not seeing the same trends as some of the other salty competitors. One of the things that we're seeing in salty actually is that this is a business where we've had three consecutive quarters of pound and dollar share growth.

謝謝你的提問，羅布。早安.我認為應該先從鹹味開始。在我們所處的競爭領域，我們並沒有看到與其他一些競爭對手相同的趨勢。我們在鹹味飲料行業看到的一個現像是，該行業已經連續三個季度實現了英鎊和美元份額的成長。

We're seeing consumers respond to our price investments. We've had really good price pack architecture. And then the product renovation that we did to just improve the flavor, that's resonating really well. So our salty business has performed incredibly well, and we think that will continue into next year.

我們看到消費者對我們在價格方面的投入做出了積極回應。我們擁有非常優秀的價格套餐架構。然後，我們對產品進行了改良，改善了口味，效果非常好。因此，我們的鹹味食品業務表現非常出色，我們認為這種勢頭將持續到明年。

The challenge that we have seen is really on our hot snacks business. That has what's driven the deceleration that you're seeing in snacks. And as I've talked about before, on hot snacks, one of the main drivers of that with Totino's is that we did a price pack architecture conversion. We changed a bag to a box. And in today's economic times, when the consumers are stressed, they just didn't see any value in that box, and we thought sales declined significantly.

我們面臨的挑戰主要體現在熱食小吃業務上。這就是導致零食市場成長放緩的原因。正如我之前談到的，關於熱零食，Totino's 的主要驅動因素之一是我們進行了價格包裝架構的轉換。我們把袋子換成了盒子。在如今經濟情勢下，消費者壓力很大，他們根本看不到那個盒子有任何價值，我們認為銷售量大幅下降。

And so we're in process of converting that back now. The retailers have been really supportive. We think we've got the price rate and we've really got to up the product quality and how we're talking about the product to consumers, which you'll see go into marketplace this year. And so that's our main focus for snacks going forward.

所以我們現在正在進行轉換過程。零售商們給予了我們很大的支持。我們認為價格已經合適了，現在真的需要提高產品質量，以及改進我們向消費者介紹產品的方式，這些改進產品將在今年推出市場。所以，這就是我們未來零食研發的主要方向。

On our grain snacks and our fruit snacks, it is about making sure we taste great and we have enough better-for-you innovation with protein and fiber, which we really do. And we're leaning into the Annie's business in our snacking categories, which we also think will work incredibly well for us.

我們的穀物零食和水果零食，關鍵在於確保它們味道鮮美，並且富含蛋白質和纖維，從而帶來更多有益健康的創新，而我們也確實做到了這一點。我們正在大力發展 Annie's 的零食業務，我們認為這將對我們非常有利。

So ex-Totino's, is snacks stable? Or can you tease it out for us?

所以，前托蒂諾零食公司現在的零食業務穩定嗎？或者你能給我們詳細解釋一下嗎？

Ex-Totino's, snacks overall for us would still be down slightly. That is driven by our grain business. Our Nature Valley business is performing pretty well. We've got -- our protein is doing really well. Our wafers business doing really well. And actually, Fiber One is on the comeback with GLP-1 users, but it's still down.

前 Totino's 的零食銷量對我們來說總體上還是會略有下降。這主要由我們的糧食業務所驅動。我們在Nature Valley的業務表現相當不錯。我們的蛋白質含​​量非常高。我們的晶圓業務發展得非常好。事實上，Fiber One 正在 GLP-1 用戶群中復甦，但目前仍處於宕機狀態。

So what we see in grain is that consumers are moving towards performance nutrition. And so that's why you've really seen us ramp up this GHOST Bar innovation that, again, is performing really well, high protein, low sugar. We're going to scale that nationally right now. We'll continue to lean into everything that's working well on Nature Valley, and we will double down with GLP-1 users on our Fiber One and Protein One business.

因此，我們在穀物領域看到的是，消費者正在轉向功能性營養。所以，這就是為什麼你們會看到我們大力推進 GHOST Bar 創新產品，該產品再次表現出色，高蛋白，低糖。我們現在就要在全國推廣這項措施。我們將繼續充分利用 Nature Valley 的所有成功經驗，並增加對 Fiber One 和 Protein One 業務中 GLP-1 用戶群的投入。

Yeah. As Dana said, the biggest challenge really is Totino's, a little bit in bars as well. Bars is about innovation. We think we have a good story there. Unlike what you might have heard from others on salty snacks, our salty snacks business was up double digits in the third quarter.

是的。正如達娜所說，最大的挑戰其實是托蒂諾餐廳，酒吧裡也存在著一些挑戰。Bars 的精髓在於創新。我們認為我們這裡有個不錯的故事。與你可能從其他人那裡聽到的關於鹹味零食的說法不同，我們的鹹味零食業務在第三季度實現了兩位數的增長。

And I'm really pleased with Dana and her team, what they've done in salty snacks, I mean, really good price pack architecture. Chex Mix is flying, and our fruit retail sales are flat. And so as you decomp the whole thing, we're really strong in salty snacks and holding our own fruit, and the job to do really is primarily on Totino's with a little bit of bars as well.

我對 Dana 和她的團隊在鹹味零食領域的成就感到非常滿意，我的意思是，他們打造了一個非常好的價格包裝架構。Chex Mix 零食賣得很好，而我們的水果零售額卻持平。因此，當你把整個產品分解開來時，你會發現我們在鹹味零食和自家水果方面實力很強，而我們真正要做的主要是 Totino's 薯片，還有少量能量棒。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

Scott Marks，傑富瑞集團。

Good morning, all. Thanks very much for taking our questions. First thing I wanted to ask about is some of the retailer inventory adjustments that you called out. Could you just help us understand a little bit what parts of the NAR and Pet business were impacted and then how we should be thinking about the reversal in each of those segments for fiscal Q4?

各位早安。非常感謝您回答我們的問題。首先我想問的是您提到的一些零售商庫存調整問題。您能否幫我們了解 NAR 和寵物業務的哪些部分受到了影響，以及我們應該如何看待這些業務板塊在第四財季的業績逆轉？

Yeah. Thank you for the question. We definitely have seen some quarter-to-quarter fluctuations as it relates to retailer inventories. I would say from a NAR perspective, we typically see our net sales and our retail sales track -- trends track relatively consistently. They were a little bit off in Q3, and we think that will revert back in Q4.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我們確實看到零售商庫存出現了一些季度間的波動。從 NAR 的角度來看，我們通常會看到淨銷售額和零售銷售額的走勢相對一致。第三季他們的表現略有下滑，我們認為第四季會恢復正常。

It's Pet where we see the more significant gap. That's about 3 points. And as we look to Q4, our current guidance does not really contemplate a headwind or a tailwind from Pet in Q4. Historically, it has been really important for us to predict shipment timing and retailer inventory impact. So we just think that the best planning assumption is to assume that it's going to be neutral in Q4.

在寵物領域，我們看到了更明顯的差距。那大概是3分。展望第四季度，我們目前的預期並沒有真正考慮到寵物產業在第四季度可能帶來的不利或有利因素。從歷史上看，預測出貨時間和零售商庫存影響對我們來說一直非常重要。所以我們認為，最好的規劃假設是假設第四季將保持中立。

Understood. And then I just wanted to ask a little bit about the guide. Obviously, holding the guide implies maybe a fairly wide range for Q4. So just wondering if you can help us understand maybe the swing factors that could push results towards one end or the other?

明白了。然後，我還想問關於導遊的一些問題。顯然，持有該指南意味著第四季的預測範圍可能相當廣泛。所以，我想請您幫我們了解一下，有哪些因素可能會導致結果偏向某一端或另一端？

Sure. And certainly, the guide on profit is maybe even appreciably wider than on the top line. But obviously, on the top line, as I referenced earlier, we're expecting sort of the mechanical factors of the retailer inventory reset, which we expect to be to improve our organic growth rate about 200 basis points over Q3, so about 50 basis points in the quarter, and then our trade expense timing to kind of carry the rest on the top line.

當然。當然，利潤指引的範圍可能比營收指引的範圍還要廣得多。但顯然，就營收而言，正如我之前提到的，我們預計零售商庫存重置的機械因素將使我們的有機成長率比第三季提高約 200 個基點，也就是本季提高約 50 個基點，然後我們的貿易費用時間安排將對營收產生其餘影響。

On the bottom line, as Dana just referenced in her remarks, we saw some additional pressure on top of some things that we had already anticipated going in. So specifically, going into the quarter in Q3, we would have expected remarkability investments, divestiture headwinds and trade expense timing comparisons to be a drag. Those kind of accounted for two-thirds of the decline in Q3.

總而言之，正如達娜剛才在演講中提到的那樣，我們看到了一些額外的壓力，而這些壓力是我們之前已經預料到的。具體來說，進入第三季時，我們預計卓越投資、資產剝離帶來的不利因素以及貿易費用時間比較將構成拖累。這些因素大致佔第三季下降幅度的三分之二。

And then the other remaining factor that was frankly still variable and wide as we came into CAGNY and reset guidance were around the shipment time, the weather-related factors that impacted shipment timing and supply chain disruptions for us, and those added additional pressure to the results and largely account for the width of the range on profit.

而另一個剩餘的因素，坦白說，當我們進入 CAGNY 並重新調整業績指引時，仍然變化不定且影響範圍很廣，那就是發貨時間、影響發貨時間和供應鏈中斷的天氣相關因素，這些因素給業績帶來了額外的壓力，並在很大程度上解釋了利潤範圍的寬廣。

So our ability to recover fully from some of the cost overhang from the supply chain disruptions, we are making progress. But maybe at the low end of our guidance, that would maybe not be able to fully recover. And then at the more positive end of our guidance or the more benign end of our guidance, we'd see a more full recovery in those costs as well as, obviously, the factors around trade, supply chain retailer inventory flipping to tailwinds in the quarter.

因此，我們正在逐步恢復，以應對供應鏈中斷造成的部分成本超支問題。但即便按照我們預測的最低值來看，也可能無法完全恢復。然後，在我們較為樂觀或較保守的預期下，我們將看到這些成本得到更全面的恢復，當然，貿易、供應鏈零售商庫存等因素也將在本季度轉為利好因素。

So the last thing I would just leave you with is a reminder that we do expect to see obviously a significant contribution from the 53rd week in Q4 and that's baked into our guidance as well as the mechanical factor. But really the variability around supply chain and retail inventory recovery would probably account for the width of the range on profit.

最後我想提醒大家的是，我們預計第四季第 53 週將會帶來顯著的貢獻，這一點以及機械因素都已納入我們的預期。但實際上，供應鏈和零售庫存恢復方面的波動性可能是利潤波動範圍如此之大的原因。

Understood. Thanks very much.

明白了。非常感謝。

You bet.

當然。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

Peter Galbo，美國銀行。

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Kofi, just back to the question around inflation for next year. I know it's probably still a little too early to know fully. But a couple of your peers have called out freight as a potential headwind, and I think freight even outside of what's happened in diesel. So maybe you can just comment on what you're seeing in terms of driver tightness or anything that might be a potential hiccup on that side?

嘿，夥計們。早安.謝謝您回答問題。科菲，我們再回到明年通貨膨脹的問題。我知道現在下結論可能還為時過早。但你的幾位同行指出貨運可能是潛在的不利因素，而且我認為即使不考慮柴油市場的情況，貨運也是一個不利因素。所以，您能否就您觀察到的驅動軸緊固情況或其他可能導致該方面出現問題的任何情況發表一下看法？

Yeah. I think broadly, I don't know that we would call out different factors. We're tracking those. Obviously, we're not done with our fiscal year. So we don't expect those to be material in this year, given we're largely hitting at our contracted rates. It is a variable that we're factoring into the range that I gave you earlier in the call on our expected inflation for next year, and we'll be prepared to give you a more full picture here in, call it, two more months as we close the quarter and the year.

是的。我認為總的來說，我們不應該特別指出不同的因素。我們正在追蹤這些情況。顯然，我們的財政年度還沒結束。鑑於我們基本上都達到了合約約定的費率，我們預計今年這些因素不會造成實質影響。這是我們在先前電話會議中給出的明年預期通膨範圍中考慮的一個變量，我們將在大約兩個月後，也就是本季度和本年度結束之際，向大家提供更全面的信息。

Okay. Fair enough. And Jeff, maybe just -- I didn't get a lot of airtime, but the decision on Brazil, I don't think it comes as a huge surprise. So maybe you can just provide a few more details into just the thinking to kind of exit the market and what drove the decision at this time. Thanks.

好的。很公平。傑夫，也許只是──我沒怎麼露面，但關於巴西的決定，我覺得這並不令人意外。所以，您能否再詳細解釋一下您決定退出市場的原因，以及是什麼促使您在這個時候做出這個決定？謝謝。

Yeah. It stems from our strategy to really focus on our core global brands outside the US. And there -- we have a great right to win with our core global brands. They are fast growing, and they're quite profitable. And as we looked at our Brazilian business, our Brazilian team has done a really nice job. But the challenge for us in Brazil is that not only we under scale, but also our portfolio there is not really our global brands. It's some good local brands. But the combination of having these local brands as well as not having the scale means that our Brazilian business has not been very profitable for quite some time.

是的。這源自於我們專注於美國以外核心全球品牌的策略。而且，我們完全有理由憑藉我們的核心全球品牌贏得勝利。它們成長迅速，而且利潤豐厚。當我們審視我們在巴西的業務時，我們發現我們的巴西團隊做得非常出色。但我們在巴西面臨的挑戰不僅是規模不足，而且我們在那裡的產品組合並非真正的全球品牌。都是一些不錯的本地品牌。但是，由於擁有這些本土品牌，加上規模不夠大，導致我們在巴西的業務在很長一段時間內盈利能力都不佳。

And so the idea to divest of our Brazilian business really is a factor of our focusing on our core global brands, which will enable us in our International segment to improve our margin profile, which we've done a really nice job of this year, but there's another step came to go and divesting this business will help us do that while maintaining our growth and increasing our margin profile. So in doing that, what we'll be able to do is shift our resources to place where we think we have a longer-term right to win is going to be more profitable for us.

因此，剝離巴西業務的想法實際上是我們專注於核心全球品牌的一個因素，這將使我們能夠在國際業務領域改善利潤率，我們今年在這方面做得非常好，但還有下一步要做，剝離這項業務將有助於我們做到這一點，同時保持成長並提高利潤率。因此，透過這樣做，我們可以將資源轉移到我們認為有長期獲勝權利的地方，這將為我們帶來更大的利潤。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Julianne, I think that's all the time we have this morning. So I think we should wrap there. Thanks, everyone, for the good questions and discussion, and we look forward to speaking with you over the course of the coming quarter.

朱莉安娜，我想我們今天早上的時間就到此為止了。所以我覺得我們應該到此為止了。感謝大家提出的好問題和參與討論，我們期待在接下來的一個季度與大家繼續交流。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。