Guild Holdings Co (GHLD) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Guild Holdings Company Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call will be recorded today.

下午好，女士們，先生們，歡迎來到公會控股公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天將記錄此通話。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Kim, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Michael.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Michael Kim。請繼續，邁克爾。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that comments on this conference call may contain certain forward-looking statements regarding the company's expected operating and financial performance for future periods and industry trends. These statements are based on the company's current expectations. Actual results for future periods may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to a number of risks or other factors that are described in greater detail under the section titled Risk Factors in Guild's Form 10-K and 10-Q and in other reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，關於本次電話會議的評論可能包含有關公司未來時期預期運營和財務業績以及行業趨勢的某些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於公司目前的預期。由於公會表格 10-K 和 10-Q 中標題為風險因素的部分中更詳細描述的一些風險或其他因素，未來期間的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異在提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他報告中。

Additionally, today's remarks will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release filed today with the SEC and are also available on Guild's Investor Relations website.

此外，今天的評論將涉及某些非公認會計原則的財務措施。非 GAAP 財務指標與相應 GAAP 指標的對賬可以在我們今天提交給 SEC 的收益報告中找到，也可以在 Guild 的投資者關係網站上找到。

Participating in the call today are Chief Executive Officer, Mary Ann McGarry; and President, Terry Schmidt. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Mary Ann McGarry. Mary Ann?

今天參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Mary Ann McGarry；和總裁特里施密特。現在我想把電話轉給 Mary Ann McGarry。瑪麗安？

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, I'm joined by our President, Terry Schmidt; and our Chief Operating Officer, David Neylan. Our Chief Financial Officer, Amber Kramer, is out on maternity leave, and I'm excited to announce the recently welcomed twins to her growing family.

謝謝你，邁克爾。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天，我們的總裁特里·施密特 (Terry Schmidt) 加入了我的行列。和我們的首席運營官大衛·內蘭。我們的首席財務官 Amber Kramer 正在休產假，我很高興地宣布，她的成長中的家庭最近迎來了一對雙胞胎。

Market dynamics across the industry remained challenging during the third quarter. Mortgage rates continued to trend higher and inventories remained limited. As a result, industry-wide origination volumes remained under pressure with ongoing overcapacity issues and shifting competitive dynamics weighing on profitability trends across the industry. However, Guild delivered strong financial performance for the quarter, which we believe reinforces the benefits of our differentiated and decentralized business model across cycles and shifting competitive backdrops.

第三季度整個行業的市場動態仍然充滿挑戰。抵押貸款利率繼續走高，庫存仍然有限。因此，由於持續存在的產能過剩問題和不斷變化的競爭動態對整個行業的盈利趨勢造成壓力，整個行業的原始數量仍然面臨壓力。然而，Guild 在本季度實現了強勁的財務業績，我們認為這加強了我們跨週期和不斷變化的競爭背景的差異化和去中心化業務模式的優勢。

We generated compelling sequential quarter growth in GAAP net income, adjusted net income and earnings per share for the third quarter while maintaining strong profitability despite quarter-over-quarter declines in originations and gain on sale margins, reflecting ongoing macro headwinds. On a GAAP basis, we grew both net income and earnings per share by 33% on a sequential quarter basis, while posting a return on equity north of 25% for the third quarter. Even after excluding fair value changes related to MSRs and contingent liabilities, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share came in at $24 million and $0.40 per share, respectively, for the third quarter of this year, both 74% higher compared to second quarter results.

我們在第三季度的 GAAP 淨收入、調整後的淨收入和每股收益方面實現了令人矚目的連續季度增長，同時保持了強勁的盈利能力，儘管起源和銷售利潤率環比下降，反映了持續的宏觀逆風。按公認會計原則計算，我們的淨收入和每股收益環比增長 33%，同時第三季度的股本回報率超過 25%。即使剔除與 MSR 和或有負債相關的公允價值變化，今年第三季度調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股收益分別為 2400 萬美元和 0.40 美元，與第二季度的業績相比均高出 74% .

We believe our tenured management team, strong culture, retail infrastructure in local markets across the country, long-term strategic focus and consistent execution enable us to drive sustainable profits through market downturns. Because of our long-term expertise and experience across cycles, we've been able to manage successfully through recent market shifts and delivered adjusted return on equity of nearly 8% for the third quarter of this year and during the trailing 12 months ended September 30, 2022.

我們相信，我們資深的管理團隊、強大的文化、全國當地市場的零售基礎設施、長期的戰略重點和一致的執行使我們能夠在市場低迷時期推動可持續的利潤。由於我們在跨週期的長期專業知識和經驗，我們能夠成功應對最近的市場變化，並在今年第三季度和截至 9 月 30 日的過去 12 個月中實現了近 8% 的調整後股本回報率, 2022 年。

Guild's business model is different. From a distribution perspective, our scale-enabled and nationwide retail platform leverages in-house loan officers who build and maintain strong relationships with customers and referral partners in local markets. Focusing on talent, our product mix, technology and servicing capability resonate with recruits. To that point, we remain well ahead of our goals as it relates to net new hirings of loan officers thus far this year.

公會的商業模式是不同的。從分銷的角度來看，我們的規模化和全國性零售平台利用內部信貸員與當地市場的客戶和推薦合作夥伴建立並保持牢固的關係。我們專注於人才，我們的產品組合、技術和服務能力與新員工產生共鳴。在這一點上，我們仍然遠遠領先於我們的目標，因為它與今年迄今為止新增信貸員的淨額有關。

Furthermore, Guild is a leader in the purchase market. In the third quarter, 91% of our originated loans were purchased mortgages, up from 84% in the prior quarter and meaningfully above 81% for the industry according to estimates from the Mortgage Bankers Association. We believe buyers are waiting on the sidelines because of current volatility and affordability challenges and are looking for a return to stable markets. As we manage through this dislocation in the market, we see opportunity and remain focused on serving first-time homebuyers and underserved markets.

此外，Guild 是採購市場的領導者。根據抵押貸款銀行家協會的估計，在第三季度，我們 91% 的發起貸款是購買抵押貸款，高於上一季度的 84%，明顯高於該行業的 81%。我們認為，由於當前的波動性和可負擔性挑戰，買家正在觀望，並正在尋求回歸穩定的市場。隨著我們在市場上的這種錯位進行管理，我們看到了機會並繼續專注於為首次購房者和服務不足的市場提供服務。

Turning to our balance sheet. We maintain healthy leverage ratios and ample liquidity to continue to fund our business and invest for growth either organically or by capitalizing on accretive M&A opportunities. We believe our long and successful acquisition track record is attractive to smaller firms dealing with ongoing revenue pressures, shifting competitive dynamics and diminishing profitability. Our differentiated business model and consistent profitability across cycles position us to be selective and financially disciplined when evaluating potential acquisition opportunities. In the meantime, we remain focused on returning excess capital to shareholders through ongoing share repurchases.

轉向我們的資產負債表。我們保持健康的槓桿率和充足的流動性，以繼續為我們的業務提供資金，並通過有機或利用增值併購機會來實現增長。我們相信，我們長期而成功的收購記錄對處理持續收入壓力、競爭動態變化和盈利能力下降的小型公司具有吸引力。我們差異化的商業模式和跨週期的持續盈利能力使我們在評估潛在收購機會時具有選擇性和財務紀律。與此同時，我們仍然專注於通過持續的股票回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。

In summary, I am very proud of the results we delivered in the third quarter in what has been a challenging environment for the industry. Looking ahead, I'm excited about our growth opportunity as we capitalize on the dislocation in the market given our balanced business model and strong and liquid balance sheet.

總之，我對我們在第三季度在行業充滿挑戰的環境中取得的成果感到非常自豪。展望未來，鑑於我們平衡的商業模式和強大且流動性強的資產負債表，我們利用市場錯位，我對我們的增長機會感到興奮。

So with that, I'd like to turn it over to our President, Terry Schmidt. Terry?

因此，我想把它交給我們的總統特里施密特。特里？

Thanks, Mary Ann. As is our standard practice, my comments on our financial results will focus on sequential quarter comparisons. For the third quarter of 2022, we generated $4.4 billion of total in-house loan originations, representing a 24% sequential decline from $5.7 billion in the second quarter. While disappointed with the quarterly dip in volumes on an absolute basis, our sequential drop was more constructive when viewed on a relative basis as industry volumes were down 29% quarter-over-quarter according to the latest estimates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

謝謝，瑪麗安。按照我們的標準做法，我對財務業績的評論將集中在連續季度比較上。 2022 年第三季度，我們產生了 44 億美元的內部貸款發放總額，比第二季度的 57 億美元環比下降 24%。根據抵押銀行家協會的最新估計，儘管對季度交易量的絕對下降感到失望，但從相對基礎上看，我們的連續下降更具建設性，因為行業交易量環比下降了 29%。

Net revenue totaled $261 million compared to $288 million in the prior quarter, while net income totaled $77 million or $1.26 per diluted share. Despite the sequential decline in originations and revenue, adjusted earnings and profitability meaningfully improved in the third quarter relative to the prior quarter. Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share totaled $24 million and $0.40 per share, respectively, while adjusted EBITDA totaled $33 million. In comparison, second quarter adjusted net income, adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA were $14 million, $0.23 per share and $22 million, respectively.

淨收入總計 2.61 億美元，而上一季度為 2.88 億美元，而淨收入總計 7700 萬美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.26 美元。儘管起源和收入連續下降，但與上一季度相比，第三季度調整後的收益和盈利能力顯著改善。調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股收益分別為 2400 萬美元和 0.40 美元，而調整後的 EBITDA 為 3300 萬美元。相比之下，第二季度調整後的淨收入、調整後的每股收益和調整後的 EBITDA 分別為 1400 萬美元、每股 0.23 美元和 2200 萬美元。

Our estimated effective tax rate was 6.8% for the third quarter compared to 25.3% in the prior quarter. The decrease in our tax rate for the most recent quarter was primarily due to the effect of a permanent tax benefits related to a previous acquisition. We expect our tax rate to remain close to the 22% year-to-date in the near term.

我們估計第三季度的有效稅率為 6.8%，而上一季度為 25.3%。最近一個季度我們的稅率下降主要是由於與先前收購相關的永久性稅收優惠的影響。我們預計短期內我們的稅率將保持在年初至今的 22% 附近。

Adjusted figures for the third quarter excluded a $61.4 million favorable change in fair value of MSRs compared to a $46.9 million markup in the prior quarter, with the variance largely a function of the interest rate backdrop. While these point-to-point adjustments in isolation are noncash in nature, higher rates typically result in slower prepayments and longer holding periods, which prolong related cash flows over time.

第三季度的調整後數據不包括 MSR 公允價值的 6140 萬美元有利變化，而上一季度為 4690 萬美元，差異主要是利率背景的函數。雖然這些單獨的點對點調整在本質上是非現金的，但較高的利率通常會導致預付款較慢和持有期較長，從而隨著時間的推移延長相關的現金流。

Focusing on our origination segment. Our gain on sale margin came in at 354 basis points on $4.4 billion of total funded originations for the third quarter compared to 363 basis points on $5.7 billion of funded originations in the second quarter. Our gain on sale margin on pull-through adjusted locked volume was 349 basis points versus 357 basis points in the prior quarter. Pull-through adjusted locked volume totaled $4.4 billion in the third quarter compared to $5.8 billion in the prior quarter, consistent with declining origination volumes across the industry.

專注於我們的原創部分。第三季度，我們的銷售利潤率增長 354 個基點，融資總額為 44 億美元，而第二季度融資總額為 57 億美元，增長了 363 個基點。我們通過調整後的鎖定交易量獲得的銷售利潤率為 349 個基點，而上一季度為 357 個基點。第三季度通過調整後的鎖定交易量總計 44 億美元，而上一季度為 58 億美元，這與整個行業的原始交易量下降一致。

For our servicing segment, we generated $97 million of net income in the third quarter, up from $64 million in the prior quarter with the increase primarily reflecting more favorable MSR valuation adjustments, higher servicing fees on continued growth in unpaid principal balances and lower operating expenses. In addition, we booked a $3.4 million reversal of the provision for foreclosure losses in the third quarter compared to a $1.8 million provision in the prior quarter. The reversal reflected our expectations for fewer loans moving from forbearance to foreclosure and lower-than-anticipated average losses.

對於我們的服務部門，我們在第三季度產生了 9700 萬美元的淨收入，高於上一季度的 6400 萬美元，增長主要反映了更有利的 MSR 估值調整、未付本金餘額持續增長導致的服務費增加以及運營費用降低.此外，我們在第三季度計入了 340 萬美元的止贖損失準備金，而上一季度為 180 萬美元。這一逆轉反映了我們對從暫緩到止贖的貸款減少以及低於預期的平均損失的預期。

The unpaid principal balance of our servicing portfolio, consisting primarily of MSRs sourced through our retail channel, was up 2.5% quarter-over-quarter to $77.7 billion, and we retained servicing rights for nearly 89% of total loans sold in the most recent quarter, boding well for ongoing growth in servicing fees while reinforcing the synergies with our originations business. Furthermore, we believe our focus on customer service and client engagement enhances client retention with our purchase recapture rate holding steady at 28% for the third quarter.

我們的服務組合的未付本金餘額（主要包括通過我們的零售渠道採購的 MSR）環比增長 2.5% 至 777 億美元，我們保留了最近一個季度售出貸款總額的近 89% 的服務權，這預示著服務費的持續增長，同時加強了與我們的原始業務的協同作用。此外，我們相信我們對客戶服務和客戶參與的關注提高了客戶保留率，第三季度我們的購買回收率穩定在 28%。

I want to spend a moment here discussing our differentiated servicing business. Our servicing model creates economies of scale, which have driven our cost to service lower. Our servicing portfolio growth supports loan originations, increases our ongoing cash flow and allows for MSR borrowing flexibility as origination growth opportunities arise. Due to our balanced business model and financial discipline, we remain in a strong cash position with low leverage, as I will discuss further.

我想在這里花一點時間討論我們的差異化服務業務。我們的服務模式創造了規模經濟，從而降低了我們的服務成本。我們的服務組合增長支持貸款發放，增加我們的持續現金流，並允許 MSR 在出現增長機會時靈活借款。由於我們平衡的商業模式和財務紀律，我們仍處於低杠桿的強勁現金狀況，我將進一步討論。

A key driver of our sequential quarter step-up in adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA was our ongoing efforts to flex our expense base as market conditions dictate. Through the third quarter, we have realized approximately $75 million of annualized expense savings primarily linked to staff reductions and related compensation. We continue to focus on optimizing profitability as macro headwinds persist with near-term expense levels somewhat dependent on volume trends.

我們在調整後的淨收入和調整後的 EBITDA 連續季度增加的一個關鍵驅動因素是我們不斷努力根據市場條件調整我們的費用基礎。到第三季度，我們實現了大約 7500 萬美元的年度開支節省，主要與裁員和相關補償有關。我們繼續專注於優化盈利能力，因為宏觀逆風持續存在，近期費用水平在一定程度上取決於數量趨勢。

Importantly, our boots-on-the-ground infrastructure provides insights into local market dynamics, which we factor in when rightsizing expense levels by region. That said, we remain cognizant of the need to further balance reductions with the risk of loan officer attrition should branch and sales support functions fall below key thresholds. We also continue to invest in the business even during down cycles to position ourselves for accelerating and sustainable growth over the long term.

重要的是，我們的實地基礎設施提供了對當地市場動態的洞察，我們在按地區調整費用水平時會考慮到這一點。話雖如此，如果分支機構和銷售支持職能低於關鍵閾值，我們仍然認識到需要進一步平衡削減與信貸員流失風險的關係。即使在經濟低迷時期，我們也會繼續對業務進行投資，以實現長期加速和可持續增長。

Next, our strong and liquid balance sheet remains a key differentiating factor, particularly during periods of market dislocation. As of September 30, cash and cash equivalents excluding funds to pay down our warehouse lines totaled $162.2 million, while warehouse lines of credit totaled $2.6 billion with unused capacity of $1.8 billion. Our leverage ratio, which we define as total debt including funding divided by tangible stockholders' equity, declined to 0.9x as of September 30, 2022 compared to 1.3x at June 30, 2022 and 2.9x as of September 30, 2021.

其次，我們強勁且流動性強的資產負債表仍然是一個關鍵的差異化因素，尤其是在市場錯位時期。截至 9 月 30 日，現金和現金等價物（不包括用於償還我們的倉庫線的資金）總計 1.622 億美元，而倉庫信貸額度總計 26 億美元，未使用容量為 18 億美元。我們的槓桿率（我們定義為包括資金在內的總債務除以有形股東權益）從 2022 年 6 月 30 日的 1.3 倍和 2021 年 9 月 30 日的 2.9 倍降至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 0.9 倍。

Stepping back, ongoing macro headwinds continue to drive a flight to quality with Guild well positioned to capitalize on an upturn in consolidation across the industry given the strength of our balance sheet. Moreover, we maintain a strong long-term track record of enhancing growth and shareholder value via accretive M&A transactions.

退一步說，持續的宏觀逆風繼續推動質量的飛躍，鑑於我們的資產負債表的實力，Guild 有能力利用整個行業的整合好轉。此外，我們在通過增值併購交易促進增長和股東價值方面保持著良好的長期業績記錄。

Beyond an expanding M&A opportunity set, we remain focused on creating shareholder value. We repurchased approximately 139,000 shares at an average stock price of $11.13 per share during the third quarter. We continue to believe buying back stock at levels meaningful below book value is an attractive use of capital. Book value per share ended the quarter at $20.81, while we grew tangible book value per share by 8% on a sequential basis to $17.38.

除了不斷擴大的併購機會外，我們仍然專注於創造股東價值。我們在第三季度以每股 11.13 美元的平均股價回購了大約 139,000 股股票。我們仍然認為，以低於賬面價值的水平回購股票是一種有吸引力的資本使用方式。本季度末每股賬面價值為 20.81 美元，而我們的每股有形賬面價值連續增長 8% 至 17.38 美元。

Turning to our quarter-to-date update. We generated $1.1 billion of loan originations and $1.1 billion of pull-through adjusted locked volume in October. From a gain on sale margin perspective, we anticipate further softness in the fourth quarter reflecting excess capacity, heightened competition and limited inventories. We continue to experience intense competition in the mortgage market, and we expect this competition will continue to put pressure on gain on sale margins and profitability.

轉向我們的季度更新。我們在 10 月份產生了 11 億美元的貸款發放和 11 億美元的拉動調整鎖定量。從銷售利潤率的角度來看，我們預計第四季度將進一步疲軟，反映出產能過剩、競爭加劇和庫存有限。我們繼續在抵押貸款市場上經歷激烈的競爭，我們預計這種競爭將繼續對銷售利潤率和盈利能力帶來壓力。

And with that, we'll open up the call for questions. Operator?

有了這個，我們將打開提問的電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Mary Ann, certainly good to see the profitability this quarter relative to what we're seeing around the sector. Can you talk a little bit about your sort of thoughts on the timing of acquisitions? Is that kind of a near-term or more of an intermediate term? And then also, how are you thinking about gain on sale margins as you look a little further out past Q4? I mean, do you think there's a -- you see a path towards higher margins as you get into next year?

Mary Ann，很高興看到本季度相對於我們在該行業看到的盈利能力。你能談談你對收購時機的看法嗎？那是近期還是更多的中期？然後，您如何看待第四季度之後的銷售利潤率增長？我的意思是，您是否認為進入明年有一條通往更高利潤率的道路？

Don, for acquisitions, yes, we think it's a great opportunity right now and think that it will even get stronger in the first quarter of 2024 -- 2023. And so we're very excited about our opportunity. And as far as gain on sale, we can't give forward-looking projections, but I feel -- the market continues to be very volatile, and we're just going to manage accordingly. And as the market stabilizes, and the MBA is predicting that, that will happen in the second half of next year, you might see a little bit more consistency, then we can all -- it'll be a lot better for borrowers sitting on the sideline waiting to see what's happening.

唐，對於收購，是的，我們認為這是一個很好的機會，並且認為它甚至會在 2024 年第一季度 - 2023 年變得更強大。所以我們對我們的機會感到非常興奮。就銷售收益而言，我們無法給出前瞻性預測，但我覺得 - 市場繼續非常不穩定，我們將相應地進行管理。隨著市場趨於穩定，而 MBA 預測，這將在明年下半年發生，你可能會看到更多的一致性，然後我們都可以——對於坐在那兒的借款人來說會好很多在場邊等著看發生了什麼。

Yes, this is Terry. I think on the gain on sale question, we track to the MBA. And every quarter, the volume has gone down as far as their projections. And so if the volume goes down, we likely would see some type of compression, historically what we've seen. But to Mary Ann's point, at some point, things should start normalizing.

是的，這是特里。我認為在銷售收益問題上，我們跟踪到 MBA。每個季度，交易量都會下降到他們的預期。因此，如果交易量下降，我們很可能會看到某種類型的壓縮，這在歷史上是我們所看到的。但在瑪麗安看來，在某個時候，事情應該開始正常化。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question here will come from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

I hope Amber's listening and congratulations. The question was asked about gain on sale, and obviously, I realize you're not in a position to provide absolute guidance. But I am curious, given that so much of the erosion of gain on sale is a function of competition and supply/demand reestablishing equilibrium. I'm curious if you think that purchase gain on sale is more stable because of the relationship-driven nature of that and the fact that the customer is probably a little bit less price sensitive?

我希望 Amber 的傾聽和祝賀。有人問了關於銷售收益的問題，顯然，我意識到您無法提供絕對的指導。但我很好奇，考慮到銷售收益的大部分侵蝕是競爭和供需重新建立平衡的函數。我很好奇您是否認為由於關係驅動的性質以及客戶可能對價格不那麼敏感的事實，銷售購買收益更穩定？

Yes, I would say traditionally that historically, that's been the case for our model, and that stickiness with the customer and your referral partners, they're more concerned about fulfillment and getting the transaction done then -- they're not quite as sensitive related to price.

是的，我傳統上會說，從歷史上看，我們的模型就是這種情況，與客戶和您的推薦合作夥伴的粘性，他們更關心履行和完成交易——他們並不那麼敏感與價格有關。

But Rick, there still remains pressure. And with overcapacity in the market, there's still a lot of pressure on the gain on sale and competition. I think we win alone more often, but we are experiencing that pressure and we have to be competitive.

但瑞克，壓力依然存在。而在市場產能過剩的情況下，銷售和競爭的收益仍然存在很大壓力。我認為我們更經常獨自獲勝，但我們正在承受壓力，我們必須保持競爭力。

Got it. Okay. And then Don had asked a little bit about acquisitions. And I'm curious, presumably, your currency and platform is more attractive in the current environment, and there probably are more opportunities for acquisition given how rapidly the market is shrinking. How do you approach that? Or is the -- is your willingness in pricing much more conservative today than theoretically what it was at the beginning of the year given the imbalances and the risks of expanding the platform now?

知道了。好的。然後唐問了一些關於收購的問題。而且我很好奇，大概你的貨幣和平台在當前環境下更具吸引力，考慮到市場萎縮的速度，可能會有更多的收購機會。你是怎麼處理的？或者考慮到現在的不平衡和擴大平台的風險，你今天的定價意願是否比年初的理論上保守得多？

Yes, I would say that's true. Just when we're looking at acquisitions and modeling out, we're looking at a discounted cash flow model, typically. And in today's environment, of course, the cash flows are going to be much thinner. And so I would say, yes, we're being a little bit more cautious on pricing.

是的，我會說這是真的。就在我們考慮收購和建模時，我們通常會考慮貼現現金流模型。當然，在今天的環境下，現金流會變得稀薄得多。所以我會說，是的，我們對定價更加謹慎。

Got it. And is the phone ringing a bit more?

知道了。電話響了一點嗎？

It is. It's been ringing quite a lot.

這是。它已經響了很多。

And our next question will come from Kyle Joseph with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Kyle Joseph 和 Jefferies。

You guys referenced that you guys were able to take share and that your originations declined less than the industry. How much -- how big of an opportunity is there to continue taking share as we continue to see capacity removed from the market as we look into '23?

你們提到你們能夠分享份額，並且你們的起源下降少於行業。在我們展望 23 年時，隨著我們繼續看到產能從市場上消失，有多大的機會繼續佔有份額？

Sure. This is David. I can answer that. So in regards to the sequential decline from Q2 to Q3, we saw a 24% decline versus the MBA average at closer to 29%. So we did pick up market share. On a go-forward basis, in a purchase environment, we're typically able to continue to pick up market share in this type of an environment given our focus on purchase business and our traditional history, in particular, focusing on first-time homebuyers, which we see as a large opportunity.

當然。這是大衛。我可以回答這個問題。因此，關於從第二季度到第三季度的連續下降，我們看到下降了 24%，而 MBA 平均水平接近 29%。所以我們確實獲得了市場份額。展望未來，在購買環境中，鑑於我們專注於購買業務和我們的傳統歷史，特別是專注於首次購房者，我們通常能夠在這種環境中繼續獲得市場份額，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。

We do believe, as Mary Ann and Terry have both alluded to, there is still a lot of capacity in the market that continues to need to be rightsized. And for us, we're going to make sure that as we move forward, that we are not making unfavorable short-term economic gains for the sake of market share but instead focused on long-term sustained purchase growth, where we can traditionally outperform the industry.

我們確實相信，正如 Mary Ann 和 Terry 都提到的那樣，市場上仍有大量容量需要繼續調整規模。對我們而言，我們將確保在前進的過程中，我們不會為了市場份額而獲得不利的短期經濟收益，而是專注於長期持續的採購增長，我們傳統上可以超越行業。

Got it. Very helpful. And then just a follow-up for me on the provision reversal. Obviously, that's a sign of a very healthy portfolio. But as you think about your servicing book and kind of the broader economy and a lot of macro uncertainty out there, what's kind of the outlook in terms of foreclosures going forward?

知道了。非常有幫助。然後只是對我的供應逆轉的後續行動。顯然，這是一個非常健康的投資組合的標誌。但是，當您考慮您的服務書籍和更廣泛的經濟類型以及許多宏觀不確定性時，未來止贖的前景如何？

Well, I think that -- well, the foreclosures and our performance has been -- we think it's reasonable, what we have in our reserve. And we aren't seeing any sign today of an increase in hardship. As a matter of fact, many of the reports in the economy are showing that the economy -- underlying economy is still strong. So that's just -- so that's good for our portfolio.

好吧，我認為——好吧，止贖和我們的表現一直是——我們認為這是合理的，我們有儲備。我們今天沒有看到任何困難增加的跡象。事實上，許多經濟報告都顯示經濟——基礎經濟仍然強勁。所以這只是 - 所以這對我們的投資組合有好處。

Yes, we actually took some reversal on our provision. We thought that we would -- with loans getting out of forbearance and going into foreclosure, we expected that number to be higher. And it just isn't coming to fruition. Just the homeowners that have had any issues, they're able to dispose of their property in other ways rather than foreclosure with the equity that -- selling their property, for example. And so we're just not seeing the issues that we thought that we would see. So the outlook on that side of the business looks pretty favorable.

是的，我們實際上對我們的規定進行了一些逆轉。我們認為我們會 - 隨著貸款擺脫寬容並進入止贖，我們預計這個數字會更高。它只是沒有實現。只是那些有任何問題的房主，他們能夠以其他方式處置他們的財產，而不是用喪失抵押品贖回權的資產——例如，出售他們的財產。所以我們只是沒有看到我們認為我們會看到的問題。因此，該業務的前景看起來非常有利。

And I would add that the loss mitigation efforts are so much better than they were 10 years ago. So many more opportunities, and it helps borrowers stay in their homes. And it really -- especially after this pandemic, it helped so many borrowers maintain homeownership.

我還要補充一點，減輕損失的努力比 10 年前要好得多。更多的機會，它可以幫助借款人留在家中。真的——尤其是在這場大流行之後，它幫助了這麼多藉款人維持了房屋所有權。

(Operator Instructions) There were no remaining questions. We will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mary Ann McGarry for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明）沒有剩餘問題。我們將結束我們的問答環節。我想把會議轉回給 Mary Ann McGarry 做任何閉幕詞。

Well, thank you for joining us today. Have a great evening, and we look forward to updating you on our next call. Thank you.

嗯，謝謝你今天加入我們。祝您度過一個愉快的夜晚，我們期待在下一次電話會議上更新您的信息。謝謝你。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。