Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia second-quarter 2026 earnings call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's website at gfgsa.com. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安。歡迎參加 Grupo Financiero Galicia 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。本次會議將被錄音，重播將於公司網站 gfgsa.com 提供。(接線員指示)

Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US federal securities laws and are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

本次電話會議中所作的部分陳述，可能構成美國聯邦證券法「安全港」條款所定義的前瞻性陳述，並受可能導致實際結果與所表達內容存在重大差異之風險與不確定性影響。

Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry, and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements.

投資人應注意，與總體經濟情勢、金融產業及其他因素相關的事件，可能導致結果與各項前瞻性陳述所表達者出現重大差異。

Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

現在，我將把會議交給投資人關係主管 Pablo Firvida 先生。您可以開始發言。

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining this conference call. Before reviewing our operating performance, I would like to briefly address the macroeconomic backdrop that shaped the performance of the financial system during the quarter and provide the context for our business trends.

謝謝。各位早安，感謝各位參加本次電話會議。在回顧我們的營運表現之前，我想先簡要說明本季影響金融體系表現的總體經濟背景，並為我們的業務趨勢提供脈絡。

According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, EMAE, the Argentine economy expanded 2.7% year over year in June and recovered 0.8% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite this month's improvement, activity remained 1.1% below December 2025 levels, mainly reflecting the declines recorded in April and May.

根據經濟活動月度指標 EMAE，阿根廷經濟於 6 月年增 2.7%，並在季節調整後月增 0.8%。儘管本月有所改善，經濟活動仍較 2025 年 12 月水準低 1.1%，主要反映 4 月與 5 月所記錄的下滑。

In the second quarter of 2026, the primary surplus stood at 0.4% of GDP, in line with the level recorded in the second quarter of 2025. On a year-to-date basis, the primary surplus reached 0.8% of GDP. During the first half of the year, total revenues declined 5.7% year over year in real terms, while primary spending decreased 2.8% in real terms.

2026 年第二季，初級盈餘為 GDP 的 0.4%，與 2025 年第二季所記錄的水準一致。以年初至今計，初級盈餘達 GDP 的 0.8%。上半年，總收入以實質計年減 5.7%，而初級支出以實質計下降 2.8%。

The National Consumer Price Index accumulated a 33.5% increase on a year-over-year basis and a 16% increase during the first months of 2026. During the quarter, monthly inflation decelerated from 3.4% in March to 1.9% in June.

全國消費者物價指數（CPI）年增累計上升 33.5%，並於 2026 年前幾個月累計上升 16%。本季月度通膨自 3 月的 3.4% 放緩至 6 月的 1.9%。

The monetary base expanded by ARS4.1 trillion during the second quarter and ARS8.5 trillion from the end of June 2025, representing a 23% year-over-year growth. In June 2026, the exchange rate averaged ARS1,450 per dollar, implying an 18.5% year-over-year depreciation. The average rate on 30-day peso-denominated private sector time deposits above ARS1 billion, TAMAR stood at 22.7%, 10.9 percentage points below the June 2025 average.

第二季貨幣基數增加 4.1 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），自 2025 年 6 月底以來累計增加 8.5 兆 ARS，年增 23%。2026 年 6 月，匯率平均為每美元 1,450 ARS，意味著年貶 18.5%。30 天期、金額超過 10 億 ARS 的披索計價民間部門定期存款平均利率（TAMAR）為 22.7%，較 2025 年 6 月平均值低 10.9 個百分點。

Turning now to the financial system. Private sector peso-denominated deposits averaged ARS117.4 trillion in June, increasing 8.4% during the quarter and 31.8% over the last 12 months.

接著談金融體系。6 月民間部門披索計價存款平均為 117.4 兆 ARS，季增 8.4%，過去 12 個月增加 31.8%。

Time deposits grew 8.2% during the quarter and 45.5% year over year while peso-denominated transactional deposits declined 8.4% during the quarter but increased 17.1% year over year. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $39.4 billion, increasing 1.9% during the quarter and 29.6% over the last 12 months.

定期存款本季成長 8.2%，年增 45.5%；披索計價活期（交易性）存款本季下降 8.4%，但年增 17.1%。民間部門美元計價存款為 394 億美元，本季增加 1.9%，過去 12 個月增加 29.6%。

Peso-denominated loans to private sector averaged ARS98.7 trillion in June increasing 6.8% quarter over quarter and 36.4% year over year. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $23.5 billion recording a 14.6% quarterly growth and a 48.8% annual increase. Overall, the second quarter was characterized by a more stable macroeconomic environment improving real activity indicators and continued expansion across key financial system aggregates.

6 月民間部門披索計價放款平均為 98.7 兆 ARS，季增 6.8%，年增 36.4%。民間部門美元計價放款為 235 億美元，季增 14.6%，年增 48.8%。整體而言，第二季的特徵是總體經濟環境更為穩定、實質活動指標改善，且金融體系主要總量指標持續擴張。

Moving on to Grupo Galicia. Net income for the second quarter amounted to ARS258 billion, 12% higher than in the previous year which represented a 2.1% return on average assets and an 11.3% return on average shareholders' equity. This result was mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS158 billion from Fondos FIMA for ARS38 billion from Naranja X for ARS36 billion from Galicia Seguros for ARS23 billion and from Galicia Securities for ARS8 billion.

接著談 Grupo Galicia。第二季淨利為 2,580 億 ARS，較去年同期高 12%，相當於平均資產報酬率（ROAA）2.1% 與平均股東權益報酬率（ROAE）11.3%。此結果主要來自 Banco Galicia 獲利 1,580 億 ARS、Fondos FIMA 380 億 ARS、Naranja X 360 億 ARS、Galicia Seguros 230 億 ARS，以及 Galicia Securities 80 億 ARS。

Banco Galicia net income improved by 211% sequentially and 21% compared to the second quarter of 2025, supported by lower funding costs due to the consolidation of lower interest rates, stronger performance from government securities and derivatives and a modest expansion in net interest margin. Credit quality trends also improved, reducing loan loss provisions while ongoing integration synergies from Galicia Más ex-HSBC, drove further efficiency gains.

Banco Galicia 淨利較前一季成長 211%，較 2025 年第二季成長 21%，主要受惠於利率走低帶動資金成本下降、政府證券與衍生性商品表現更強，以及淨利差小幅擴張。資產品質趨勢亦改善，使放款損失準備金下降；同時，Galicia Más（原 HSBC）整併所帶來的協同效益持續發酵，進一步提升效率。

Results additionally benefited from lower inflation driven monetary losses in a decelerating inflation environment. Average interest-earning assets reached ARS30 trillion, 6% higher than in the previous quarter primarily driven by a 27% higher volume government securities in pesos and a 37% higher volume of government securities in dollars, together with the 9% growth of dollar-denominated loans, while peso-denominated loans decreased 7%, in line with a more selective origination policy and lower demand.

此外，在通膨放緩的環境下，通膨所致的貨幣性損失下降，也對結果有所助益。平均生息資產達 30 兆 ARS，較前一季高 6%，主要由披索政府證券部位增加 27%、美元政府證券部位增加 37% 以及美元計價放款成長 9% 所帶動；同時，披索計價放款下降 7%，符合更為審慎的承作政策與較低的需求。

In the same period, its yield decreased 190 basis points reaching 21.1%, 34.8% in peso portfolio and 7.4% in the dollar portfolio due to lower yields on both local and foreign currency denominated loans. Interest-bearing liabilities decreased 3% from March 2026, amounting to ARS24 trillion, mainly due to a 10% lower volume of liabilities in dollars, partially offset by an 8% increase in peso-denominated time deposits. During this period, its cost decreased 159 basis points to 10.1%, reflecting the broad-based decline in interest rates that began towards the end of the first quarter of 2026.

同期間，其資產收益率下降 190 個基點至 21.1%；其中披索投資組合為 34.8%，美元投資組合為 7.4%，主因本幣與外幣計價放款收益率均下滑。自 2026 年 3 月起，計息負債下降 3% 至 24 兆 ARS，主要因美元負債部位減少 10%，部分被披索定期存款增加 8% 所抵銷。同期間，其負債成本下降 159 個基點至 10.1%，反映 2026 年第一季末開始的全面性利率下行。

Net interest income decreased 3% when compared to the prior quarter. Interest income declined 8%, mainly driven by a 17% lower interest income from loans and other financing due to lower volumes and the decline in interest rates during the quarter. This was partially offset by a 20% higher income from government securities, primarily driven by higher average portfolio and stronger returns from CPI-linked securities. Interest expenses were 16% lower, mainly related to deposits. Net fee income increased by 2% quarter on quarter, mainly due to a 14% decrease of fee expenses.

淨利息收入較前一季下降 3%。利息收入下降 8%，主要因放款及其他融資的利息收入下降 17%，反映部位減少以及本季利率下滑。此影響部分被政府證券收入增加 20% 所抵銷，主要由平均投資組合規模擴大及 CPI 連結證券報酬較佳所帶動。利息費用下降 16%，主要與存款相關。淨手續費收入季增 2%，主要因手續費支出下降 14%。

Net income from financial instruments was 275% higher than in the previous quarter, mainly due to lower losses from derivative financial instruments, which decreased 85% and 84% rise in results from the derecognition of assets driven by sales of government securities classified at fair value through OCI, higher gains from government securities measured at fair value and a recovery in the results from private sector securities.

金融工具淨收益較前一季大增 275%，主要因衍生性金融工具損失下降（減少 85%），以及因出售分類為透過其他綜合損益（OCI）按公允價值衡量之政府證券而產生的資產除列結果增加 84%；此外，按公允價值衡量之政府證券的收益提高，且民間部門證券的結果亦出現回升。

Results from quotation difference of foreign currency decreased 13% quarter on quarter. This performance was explained by a lower level of transaction activity given that the previous quarter had registered a higher volume of operations by retail customers.

外幣匯兌差額結果較前一季下降 13%。此表現主要因交易活動水準較低，因前一季零售客戶的操作量較高。

Provision for loan losses declined 8% quarter on quarter driven by a decrease in loans becoming Stage 3 and the associated deterioration of that portfolio, reflecting signs of improvement in the delinquency indicators observed during the quarter. Personnel expenses went up 12% sequentially due to an increase in the provisions for variable payments aligned with improvement in the financial performance, while administrative expenses were flat quarter on quarter.

放款損失準備金較前一季下降 8%，係因轉為第 3 階段（Stage 3）的放款減少及該投資組合相關惡化程度降低，反映本季觀察到的逾期指標出現改善跡象。人員費用較前一季上升 12%，主因與財務表現改善相一致的變動薪酬提列增加；行政費用則與前一季持平。

Other operating expenses declined 15% quarter on quarter driven by a 14% lower turnover tax, 13% lower other fee-related expenses and a 21% decrease in other financial results. The bank's financing to the private sector reached nearly ARS25 trillion at the end of the quarter, up 4% in the last quarter with peso financing decreasing 4% and dollar-denominated financing up 19%. Deposits reached ARS27 trillion, 7% higher than the quarter before due to a 7% growth of deposits in pesos and a 6% increase in dollar-denominated deposits. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 15.1%, 69 basis points higher than at the end of the previous quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 14.3%, 42 basis points higher than in the first quarter of 2026. The bank's liquid assets represented 93.1% of transactional deposits and 55.2% of total deposits compared to 95% and 56.6%, respectively, as of the previous quarter.

其他營業費用較上季下降15%，主要受營業稅下降14%、其他手續費相關費用下降13%以及其他金融結果下降21%所帶動。截至本季末，本行對民間部門的融資規模接近25兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較上季增加4%，其中披索融資下降4%，以美元計價的融資上升19%。存款達27兆阿根廷披索，較前一季高出7%，主要因披索存款成長7%及美元計價存款增加6%。本行對民間部門放款的估計市占率為15.1%，較前一季末提高69個基點；民間部門存款市占率為14.3%，較2026年第一季提高42個基點。本行流動資產占交易性存款的93.1%，占總存款的55.2%；相較前一季分別為95%與56.6%。

As regards asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loans to total financing ended the quarter at 8.3%, reporting a 60 basis points deterioration as compared to the 7.7% of the first quarter of 2026. The coverage with allowances reached 92.8%, up from 91.4% recorded in the prior quarter. As of the end of June, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 26%, while the Tier 1 ratio was 25.9%, both increasing 4 basis points from the end of the prior quarter. In summary, during the second quarter, profitability improved sequentially, supported by a stronger contribution from financial instruments, lower funding costs reduced loan loss provisions and continued efficiency gains from the integration. Business volumes remained resilient with growth in total financing and deposits, particularly in dollar-denominated loans while we continue to gain market share in both loans and deposits.

就資產品質而言，不良放款占總融資比率於本季末為8.3%，較2026年第一季的7.7%惡化60個基點。備抵呆帳覆蓋率達92.8%，高於前一季的91.4%。截至6月底，本行總監理資本適足率達26%，第一類資本（Tier 1）比率為25.9%，兩者均較前一季末增加4個基點。總結而言，第二季獲利能力較前一季改善，主要受金融工具貢獻提升、資金成本下降帶動放款損失提列減少，以及整合帶來的效率提升所支持。業務量維持韌性，總融資與存款均成長，尤其以美元計價放款成長突出；同時我們在放款與存款兩方面持續提升市占率。

At the same time, the nonperforming loan ratio increased during the quarter although coverage levels improved and provisions decline, reflecting early signs of stabilization. Overall, Grupo Galicia maintained strong liquidity and solvency metrics, and we remain focused on disciplined growth preserving capital strength and further improving asset quality and profitability over the coming quarters.

同時，本季不良放款比率上升，但覆蓋水準改善且提列下降，反映出初步的穩定跡象。整體而言，Grupo Galicia維持強勁的流動性與償付能力指標；我們仍專注於在維持資本實力的前提下，採取紀律性的成長，並在未來幾季進一步改善資產品質與獲利能力。

Now, Gonzalo Fernández Covaro will make some additional remarks.

接下來，Gonzalo Fernández Covaro將補充說明。

Thank you, Pablo. Talking about our financial performance, as Pablo said, we saw a better quarter as interest rates stabilize at lower levels with margins slightly increasing to and also better returns from our loan portfolio. Our cost of risk continue going down as we expected, and expenses under control enjoying the results of last year's restructuring.

謝謝你，Pablo。談到我們的財務表現，如Pablo所說，隨著利率在較低水準趨於穩定，我們本季表現更佳，利差也略有擴大，同時放款組合帶來更好的報酬。我們的風險成本如預期持續下降，費用也維持受控，並享受到去年重整的成果。

Talking about volume, loan growth continued to be slow due to a low demand in the commercial credit size in peso, better in dollars and strict origination policies on the consumer side. We expect some recovery in the lending volume in the second half.

談到量的部分，由於披索商業授信需求偏低、美元端較佳，以及消費端採取嚴格的授信政策，放款成長仍然偏慢。我們預期下半年放款量將有所回升。

Our projections for loan growth are now around 10% to 15% with more participation on dollar side of companies as it has been happening in the second quarter. We see deposits growing around 10% for the year. As we said in prior calls, cost of risk already had its peak in the fourth quarter, and we started to see credit loss charges to decrease in the first and the second quarter. stabilization and reduction of NPLs will check one more quarter than expected. We are seeing now the peak in the second quarter.

我們目前對放款成長的預估約為10%至15%，企業端美元業務的占比將提高，正如第二季所呈現的趨勢。我們預期全年存款成長約10%。如同先前電話會議所述，風險成本已於第四季見頂，而我們在第一季與第二季已開始看到信用損失費用下降。不良放款的穩定與下降將比原先預期多延後一季。我們目前看到高峰落在第二季。

So in June now, with a stabilization and reduction going forward. In the bank, we expect a slight decrease of NPL ratio in the third quarter and reaching around 6.3% at the end of this year on the NPL ratio. We see a cost of risk for the bank around 8.3% for the full year 2026. That's our expectation for the rest of the year. We are now at 9.3%.

因此到6月為止，接下來將呈現穩定並逐步下降。就銀行而言，我們預期第三季不良放款比率將小幅下降，並在今年底不良放款比率降至約6.3%。我們預期銀行2026年全年風險成本約為8.3%。這是我們對今年剩餘期間的預期。目前我們為9.3%。

So we expect that credit loss charges will continue going down in the second half as it has happened in the first 2 quarters. On the cost side, we are capturing the benefit of the restructure in May last year, as I said, after the HSBC acquisition and expect to end the year 11% lower cost than prior year. We already have the same amount of head count than the one we had before the acquisition of HSBC. And lastly, regarding returns, we see our ROE around 10% for the year. We trust that the lending volume will pick up to achieve this goal.

因此，我們預期信用損失費用將在下半年持續下降，正如前兩季所發生的情況。在成本方面，如我所說，我們正逐步反映去年5月重整（在收購HSBC之後）所帶來的效益，並預期年底成本將較前一年降低11%。我們目前的人員編制已回到收購HSBC之前的水準。最後，關於報酬率，我們預期全年股東權益報酬率（ROE）約為10%。我們相信放款量將回升，以達成此目標。

Of course, while the lending growth is low, we also invest in other earning assets like government bonds at good yields. The goal here is to grow earning assets to be able to continue to improve our NIMs and results.

當然，在放款成長偏低的同時，我們也投資於其他可產生收益的資產，例如具備良好殖利率的政府債券。此處的目標是擴大生息資產規模，以便持續改善我們的淨利差（NIM）與經營成果。

So with that, I think we are open for questions.

以上，我想我們現在開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Vaz, Safra.

(接線員指示) Daniel Vaz，Safra。

Gonzalo and Pablo, maybe my first question will be on your macro expectations for the year. I guess last quarter, you mentioned inflation between 28% and 29%, I would love to get your views on that at the margin as we are looking at August, it seems like inflation is a little bit better, but I'd love to hear your thoughts. And secondly, I'd like to touch base on your loan growth between 10% to 15%, as you mentioned, right now. And you're also appetites to government bond at good yields. Do you think your loan growth could be maybe picking up later as you have good government bonds at goodwill yields right now for you to capture?

Gonzalo和Pablo，我的第一個問題可能是關於你們對今年總體環境的預期。我記得上季你們提到通膨介於28%到29%；現在我們看到8月，通膨似乎稍微更好一些，我想聽聽你們最新的看法。第二，我想再確認你們提到目前放款成長10%到15%的目標。你們也提到對具備良好殖利率的政府債券有興趣。你們是否認為，因為目前有不錯的政府債殖利率可供你們掌握，放款成長可能會在之後才加速？

Or -- and maybe your asset quality isn't as good as you expect for the beginning of the year. So I guess my question is maybe 2027, we still have a not so great loan growth, but good yields improving from treasury results. Maybe that's the -- your P&L balance could be more inclined to that. Is it a good assumption?

或者——也許你們的資產品質沒有年初預期得那麼好。所以我的問題是，也許到2027年，我們仍會看到不算太好的放款成長，但因公債投資帶來的財資收益改善、殖利率不錯。也許你們的損益表（P&L）結構會更偏向這一塊。這樣的假設合理嗎？

Thank you for the question. Well, first, talking about economic projections for the year. We see inflation at 29%, around 29% for the year. GDP growth around 2.6%. So it's around the same numbers you were mentioning regarding inflation.

謝謝你的提問。首先，談到今年的經濟預測。我們預期全年通膨約為29%，大約29%。GDP成長約2.6%。因此通膨大致與你提到的數字相同。

Regarding our portfolio mix and our -- I would say that it's both. I mean we are concentrated in trying to grow loans because that's the business we want to grow because it's the one that is sustainable. So we are very close to our customers and many commercial customers to see opportunities. We have seen some dollar opportunities that we capture mainly in the oil and gas arena. And also, there have been some privatizations of state-owned companies that we have been supporting some of the groups leading for those that also already require some financing.

關於我們的投組配置以及我們——我會說兩者都有。也就是說，我們仍聚焦於努力成長放款，因為這是我們希望擴大的核心業務，也是可持續的成長來源。因此我們與客戶、以及許多商業客戶保持非常緊密的互動，以尋找機會。我們看到一些美元端的機會，主要在油氣領域，我們已加以掌握。此外，也有一些國營企業的民營化案，我們一直在支持領頭的部分集團，而這些案子也已需要一定的融資。

So we are active there. Of course, it's still slower than what we would like. And on the other hand, yes, we grew in government bonds. I would say that government bonds has a limit. I mean it's not something that in order to continue to improve results, we need to grow our balance sheet from the state we are now.

因此我們在那方面相當積極。當然，整體仍比我們希望的速度更慢。另一方面，是的，我們也增加了政府債券部位。我會說政府債券是有上限的。也就是說，若要持續改善成果，我們需要在目前的基礎上擴大資產負債表規模，而不會只靠政府債券。

So we can still grow some. We have room to grow more government bonds. But the point is that it is -- we have internal limits, of course, for prudency. So we need to grow lending also.

所以我們仍然可以再成長一些。我們還有空間增加政府債券部位。但重點是——當然，出於審慎考量，我們有內部上限。因此我們也需要擴大放款。

And also to clarify, in the bond portfolio, we have to think. We can have the bond portfolio to buy longer-term bonds to come and put them to accrue, we can classify them as the hold to collect and sell or hold to collect and leave them to accrue interest, but also we have the trading activity. As you know, that, that will continue to happen, that we see opportunities to buy bonds and then sell them and buy longer terms. So we will capture the difference. So it will be both.

另外也澄清一下，在債券投資組合方面，我們需要通盤思考。我們可以透過債券投資組合買入較長天期的債券並持有以累積收益；我們可以將其分類為「持有以收取及出售」或「持有以收取」並讓其持續累積利息，但同時我們也有交易活動。如各位所知，這些活動會持續進行；我們看到機會時會買入債券，之後賣出，再買入更長天期的債券。因此我們會掌握其中的價差。所以兩者都會做。

The trade activity, of course, are going to be very, very active as we have been in the second quarter to capture opportunities. As you know, we have some volatility between now and the elections because it's usual when elections come closer, so we'll try to get advantage on that. We will continue to see opportunities to capture new bonds that have good yields and just have them accruing interest. But at the same time, we'll need to grow our lending portfolio because, as I said, we have internal limits for [group] for keeping our bond portfolio. And so we need to do business with the private sector.

當然，交易活動會非常、非常活躍，就像我們在第二季為了把握機會所做的一樣。如各位所知，從現在到選舉期間可能會有一些波動，因為選舉越接近通常越如此，所以我們會嘗試從中獲利。我們也會持續尋找機會，承作殖利率良好的新債券，並讓其持續累積利息收益。但同時，我們也需要擴大放款組合，因為如我所說，我們在[集團]層面對持有債券投資組合有內部上限。因此我們需要與民間部門做生意。

And that's something that we will be focused on and we are very focused on and we'll continue to be focused on.

這是我們將會聚焦的事情，我們也非常聚焦，並且會持續聚焦。

The next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ernesto Gabilondo。

My first question is one that I made to the other banks, and it was on the political and macro outlook. So I think it was a couple of weeks ago or three weeks ago, we started to see some service or initial pulse ahead of the presidential election next year. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what did you see in terms of the business and demand, the consumer confidence, the family indebtedness, the financing of the RIGI projects. Is it something that Galicia can actually participate or it will be more the next years? So all of these things ahead of the election.

我的第一個問題是我也問過其他銀行的，關於政治與總體環境展望。我想大約兩到三週前，我們開始看到一些服務業或初步脈動，反映明年總統大選前的情況。所以我想聽聽你們的看法：在業務與需求、消費者信心、家庭負債，以及 RIGI 專案融資方面，你們觀察到什麼？這是否是 Galicia 實際可以參與的領域，還是會更多落在未來幾年？也就是選舉前的這些面向。

And my second question is on your ROE guidance. So you delivered 7% in the first half. You mentioned a number, I wasn't -- I didn't get it. So if you can also remind us what was the ROE now for the year? And how should we think about the evolution during the second half?

我的第二個問題是關於你們的 ROE 指引。你們上半年交出 7%。你提到了一個數字，我沒有——我沒聽清楚。所以如果可以的話，也請再提醒我們今年全年的 ROE 目前預期是多少？以及我們應該如何看待下半年的走勢？

And also, how do you see your medium-term ROE? What do you expect that recovering -- when do you see loan growth start recovering as you've said you have reduced the guidance of 10% to 15%. So just wondering how you're seeing the picture more for the next year.

另外，你們如何看待中期的 ROE？你們預期復甦——如你所說已將放款成長指引從 10% 到 15% 下修，那麼你們何時看到放款成長開始回升？所以想請教你們對明年整體情勢的看法。

Thank you, Ernesto. I mean, talking about, I mean, the future between now and the election, I mean we will see that Argentina always when there is election, we may have some volatility. We are not seeing it yet. We see that Central Bank has a good and a stronger set of reserves that can help face any volatility issue or any higher demand on dollars than, for example, what happened with last midterm selection. So we believe that, that will help that if there is any volatility that is something that is control, that is something that won't generate big disruptions.

謝謝你，Ernesto。我想談談從現在到選舉之間的未來；阿根廷一向在選舉期間可能會出現一些波動。我們目前還沒有看到。我們看到央行有一套更好、更強的外匯存底水位，可用來因應任何波動問題，或是美元需求高於例如上次期中選舉時的情況。因此我們相信，若出現波動，那也會是可控的，不至於造成重大干擾。

So I think that's good for what we are seeing. I mean, I think looking at [port] at this time is a bit too early. I mean, this can change every minute. So we are not really focusing on that. I mean, as you know, we are here in Argentina for the long term.

所以我認為就我們目前看到的情況而言是正面的。我的意思是，此時去看[port]還有點太早。因為這些情況可能每分鐘都在變。所以我們並沒有真的把重心放在那上面。如各位所知，我們在阿根廷是做長期經營。

So we want to do business regardless the situation, of course, with caution when we see that delinquency is going up, we will change our risk selection policies, and we adapt to each of the moments, but so far, I mean, things are doing fine. I mean GDP is growing. We are, as I said before, very close to our commercial customers mainly in the oil and gas arena, in trying to serve all the value chain and all the suppliers also of all the oil companies and something that we are doing. And we are, of course, participating. The RIGI financing is very, very big tickets.

因此我們希望不論情勢如何都能做生意；當然會保持謹慎——當我們看到逾期率上升時，我們會調整風險篩選政策，並因應每個時點做調整；但到目前為止，整體表現良好。GDP 正在成長。如我先前所說，我們與商業客戶保持非常緊密的合作，主要是在油氣領域，努力服務整個價值鏈以及所有油公司供應商，這也是我們正在做的事。而且我們當然也有參與。RIGI 的融資案金額非常、非常大。

So at some point, the local financial system we participate with in a very small portion. Some of those financings are already satisfied with international issuances, but of course, we are there for any local portion of the financing that is needed and also as I said before, to serve the value chain of the bigger companies. But as I said, I mean, so far, so good. I mean, we expect some volatility, as always, but nothing really big because we see that Central Bank is better capitalized and with better reserve or the ones that have the last elections. And we see talking about -- you also mentioned indebtedness of the families, we've seen that, that's improving, at least in our portfolio that's improving, and we are seeing our roll rates improving.

因此在某個程度上，本地金融體系只能以很小的比例參與。其中一些融資已透過國際發行取得滿足，但當然，若需要本地端的融資部分，我們也會在場；同時如我先前所說，我們也會服務大型公司的價值鏈。但如我所說，到目前為止一切都很好。我們一如既往預期會有一些波動，但不會太大，因為我們看到央行資本更充足、存底也更好，優於上次選舉時的水準。另外你也提到家庭負債，我們看到那正在改善，至少在我們的投資組合中正在改善，我們也看到我們的滾動率（roll rates）在改善。

So that's something that, of course, taking caution on where to land. I think at least for financial system, the worst is -- we are leaving behind the worst. Talking about returns, ROE, what we are seeing the ROE for the year is 10%, around 10%. I mean, I cannot measure that number, but around would say, around 10%. We are 7% and something cumulative.

所以這當然需要謹慎，特別是在資金投放到哪裡。我認為至少對金融體系而言，最糟的——我們正在把最糟的時期拋在身後。談到報酬、ROE，我們看到今年全年的 ROE 大約是 10%。我的意思是，我無法精確量化那個數字，但大概會說在 10% 左右。我們目前累計是 7% 多一點。

Yes, of course, we see that, that will continue improving, I would say, around 12%, try to end the year with something around 12%. That's the goal, and that's what we are expecting and that's what we are aiming to. For that, we need to continue growing our lending portfolio, of course, at a lower level than what we expected at the beginning of the year, but we are confident that mainly in the commercial side, we can get some traction from now on. Talking about medium-term ROE, of course, that's our -- when we talk about next year, I think we are aiming to be at 15%. I think it's too soon to give a guidance for next year, but that's our target and our aim for next year, and we will confirm the guidance in the third quarter call.

是的，當然，我們認為 ROE 會持續改善，我會說大約到 12%，力拚年底達到約 12%。這是目標，也是我們的預期與努力方向。為了達成這點，我們當然需要持續擴大放款組合，雖然成長幅度會低於年初的預期，但我們有信心，尤其在商業端，從現在開始可以取得一些動能。談到中期 ROE，當然——如果談明年，我想我們的目標是 15%。現在要給明年的指引還太早，但那是我們明年的目標與努力方向，我們會在第三季法說電話會議中確認指引。

That will be closer to year-end, but that's at least what we are aiming and when we do our projections and when we try to shape our balance sheet towards that, again, we confirm that later in the year. When you talk about medium term, well, medium term, it's always -- we're aiming to be above 15%. Where we say between 15% and 20%, we need to see when we are going to achieve that. As you know, we have talked in the past, we have the inflation accounting. That is something that is a burden for Argentine banks and as inflation continued to go down.

那會更接近年底，但至少這是我們的努力方向；我們在做預測、並試圖據此調整資產負債表時，也是朝這個方向前進；同樣地，我們會在今年稍晚再確認。你提到中期的話，中期一向——我們的目標是高於 15%。我們說在 15% 到 20% 之間，但需要再看何時能達成。如各位所知，我們過去談過，我們有通膨會計。這對阿根廷銀行而言是一項負擔，而隨著通膨持續下降。

I would say that in the last year that we have inflation accounting with the lower inflation, it will hurt us more than when we used to have high inflation because interest rate will continue to go down. And with a lower inflation, having that drug in your P&L will be harder and also we'll be more comparable with other countries and -- but we're still having the inflation accounting. So when we are going to reach that, well, it's hard to say, of course, that for sure, when inflation accounting is gone, we still need to see when that will happen. But our long-term ROE target is 15%, 20% talking about next year. we are aiming at 15%, we'll confirm later in the year, if that's something that we'll see first.

我會說，在過去一年我們在較低通膨下採用通膨會計，對我們的傷害會比以前高通膨時更大，因為利率將會持續下行。而在較低通膨下，把那個影響放在你的損益表（P&L）裡會更難，同時我們也會更能與其他國家相比——但我們仍然在採用通膨會計。所以我們何時會達到那個狀態，嗯，當然很難說；可以確定的是，通膨會計取消之後，我們仍需要觀察那會在何時發生。但我們的長期 ROE 目標是 15%～20%；談到明年，我們的目標是 15%，我們會在今年稍晚再確認是否能先看到這個水準。

Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.

Tito Labarta，高盛。

Just I guess my question is on the deposit side of things. You could see a pickup in deposits in the quarter even in peso deposits, although there was about a 22% jump on the savings deposits. Just to think about how are you thinking about deposit growth going forward, both in pesos and in foreign currency, particularly in terms of liquidity, if loan growth does improve into next year, you believe to fund that? And do you think pickup we saw in the peso deposits, in particular, is that sustainable? Was there anything particular in the quarter that jumped in the savings deposits?

我想我的問題是關於存款端。你們在本季看到存款回升，甚至比索存款也增加，儘管儲蓄存款大約跳升了 22%。想請教你們如何看待未來的存款成長，不論是比索或外幣，特別是就流動性而言：如果明年放款成長確實改善，你們認為要如何為其提供資金？另外，你們看到的比索存款回升，特別是這部分，你們認為可持續嗎？本季儲蓄存款跳升是否有任何特別因素？

And yes, I guess I can see that going forward.

是的，我想我可以看到未來會是那樣。

Thank you. I mean, yes, deposits have imposed in the second quarter. We expect this to continue. As I said, we expect for this year a total growth of 10%, both in deposits I mean we have been managing also the balance sheet. And when we see that the put that the lending is tracking, then we also go and raise deposits is something that we have been managing at some time, we are not growing deposits because we don't need them.

謝謝。我的意思是，是的，第二季存款確實增加了。我們預期這會持續。如我所說，我們預期今年存款總成長 10%；同時我們也一直在管理資產負債表。當我們看到放款的走勢（tracking）時，我們也會去提高存款；這是我們一直在做的管理方式——我們不會在不需要的情況下去成長存款。

So we prefer to do a more efficient balance sheet management. Of course, we continue to customers to increase transaction on deposits and side deposits, but in terms of time deposit that is the one that we have been lagging, but lagging May on purpose because as we don't see the loans tracking high, we prefer to manage better the balance sheet, but deposits are there, we have trade proved that when we go and look for them, we get those deposits. So it's something that will continue raising if the lending is higher as we expect it will happen. That was pesos. So in terms of dollars, we'll see some growth, but it will be, of course, lower than before.

所以我們更偏好更有效率的資產負債表管理。當然，我們持續推動客戶增加交易性存款與活期存款，但就定期存款而言，那是我們落後的部分——而且某種程度上是刻意的，因為我們沒有看到放款快速成長，所以我們更希望把資產負債表管理得更好；但存款資源是存在的，我們也已經證明，當我們去尋找存款時，我們能拿到那些存款。因此，如果放款如我們預期變得更高，存款也會持續增加。以上是比索部分。至於美元方面，我們會看到一些成長，但當然會比以前低。

We don't have now tax amnesty or there is something, but we don't see that it will be that explosive than the ones of years before. But as U.S. dollars lending continues, okay, we are going to also be active in the markets with issuances in the local market in dollars. We have been issuing commercial papers, and we'll continue that to fund also lending in dollars that is the one from the wholesale arena with the one that we see tracking better. So it's something that we are not that concerned because we think that we can bring those deposits if the lending is there.

我們現在沒有稅務赦免或類似措施，所以我們不認為會像前幾年那樣爆發式成長。但隨著美元放款持續進行，我們也會在市場上保持積極，透過在本地市場以美元發行來籌資。我們一直在發行商業本票（commercial papers），也會持續這麼做，以支應美元放款；美元放款主要來自批發（wholesale）領域，而那部分我們看到走勢更好。所以我們並不太擔心，因為我們認為只要放款需求在，我們就能帶來那些存款。

And maybe just one follow-up question. I get this one on capital. To see a bit of an increase in your capital ratios this quarter. But with ROE still below the cost of capital? How do you think about the capital ratio evolution from here?

另外再追問一題。這題是關於資本。你們本季資本比率有些上升。但在 ROE 仍低於資本成本的情況下，你們如何看待接下來資本比率的演變？

I mean capital ratio, I mean, as you know, is high. So it allows us to grow and to -- we think that we have enough capital for the next 3 years, I would say, this year and 3 more for the -- with healthy growth, not with the growth that we have been having, which is low. We expect that at some point in Argentina will start growing its loans as percent of GDP. So we -- for the year-end, we expect to be between 24% and 25%, I would say, capital -- the capital ratio. But then on top of that, we -- with our estimations and paying a reasonable amount of dividends, which is more or less what we have been paying in the past.

我的意思是，資本比率，如你所知，是很高的。所以它讓我們可以成長；我會說，我們有足夠的資本支撐未來 3 年——也就是今年再加上之後 3 年——在健康成長的情境下，而不是像我們目前這種偏低的成長。我們預期阿根廷在某個時間點會開始提高放款占 GDP 的比重。因此到年底，我們預期資本——資本比率——大約會在 24% 到 25% 之間。此外，依我們的估算，在支付合理股利（大致與過去支付水準相近）的情況下，

We expect to have capital for the next 3 years with a country that is growing in real terms, the lending and without needing to raise capital at least for 3 years, then of course, we'll see. But -- and we are okay with this we prefer it. I mean we think that the value of our franchise is the growth ahead rather than a higher dividend. So we will be combining dividends, but at boing that led us growth and capture the opportunity Argentina may bring, if everything continues within the stabilization path. So we think that we have the right level of capital for the growth that Argentina can bring in the next two, three years.

我們預期在國家實質成長、放款擴張的情境下，未來 3 年仍有足夠資本，至少 3 年內不需要增資；當然，之後再看。但——我們對此是可以接受的，而且我們也偏好如此。我的意思是，我們認為我們特許經營價值（franchise value）的重點在於未來的成長，而不是更高的股利。所以我們會在股利與成長之間做結合，同時推動成長並把握阿根廷可能帶來的機會，前提是整體仍沿著穩定化路徑前進。因此我們認為，就阿根廷未來兩到三年可能帶來的成長而言，我們目前的資本水準是合適的。

Brian Flores, Citi.

Brian Flores，花旗。

My question is on the net interest margin sustainability, this quarter benefited from funding costs, repricing faster than asset yields and from stronger results on CER linked securities. As rates continue to normalize, how should investors think about the balance between net interest margin pressure from lower loan yields and support from funding costs and treasury positioning?

我的問題是關於淨利差（net interest margin）的可持續性：本季受惠於資金成本重定價快於資產收益率，以及與 CER 連結證券帶來較強的成果。隨著利率持續正常化，投資人應如何看待：貸款收益率下降對淨利差的壓力，與資金成本及資金部位（treasury positioning）所提供的支撐之間的平衡？

I would say that, yes, of course, that margins will continue to have pressures on the downside as inflation goes down. For the year, talking about the bank, I think we see margins at 16% for the year, for the full year. We are a bit higher now, but we still see that the second half maybe have some pressure to the downside. So -- but full year and average of 16%, I think, is fair to say. But then, of course, next year and the forward onwards, that will have more pressure to the downside if inflation continues going down as we expect.

我會說，是的，當然，隨著通膨下降，利差會持續面臨下行壓力。以今年來說、就銀行本身而言，我想我們看到全年利差約 16%。我們目前略高一些，但我們仍認為下半年可能會有一些下行壓力。所以——但就全年與平均 16% 來看，我認為這樣說是合理的。不過，當然，明年以及更往後，如果通膨如我們預期持續下降，利差將會承受更大的下行壓力。

But that's fine. I mean we believe that also the inflation accounting will go down. And the -- that's we're working also in efficiency and expenses reduction in order to compensate that. Total margin is affected by the mix of pesos and dollars. I mean it's totally different.

但那沒問題。我的意思是，我們也相信通膨會計的影響會下降。而且——我們也在效率提升與費用削減上努力，以便加以抵銷。總利差會受到比索與美元組合（mix）的影響。我的意思是，兩者完全不同。

As you know, the mix, the margin between peso, which is above 20% and dollars, which is 3%, 4%. So as we have been growing the dollar lending our margin is also affected by that. It's not that we are deteriorating the peso margin, but the mix affects the numbers. So that will also be affected on the future depending on how the mix evolves going forward. But again, we are getting ready our structure, our cost reduction initiatives and everything for a bank that will have lower margins as will happen with Argentina with a lower inflation.

如你所知，組合上，比索的利差在 20% 以上，而美元大約是 3%～4%。因此，隨著我們增加美元放款，我們的利差也會受到影響。這並不是我們的比索利差在惡化，而是組合改變影響了數字。所以未來也會取決於組合如何演變而受到影響。但再說一次，我們正在為較低利差的銀行結構做準備：包括成本削減計畫與各項措施，因為在較低通膨的阿根廷，利差確實會下降。

On the other side, we will have lower accounting inflation impact, so that will also be compensating the effects.

另一方面，通膨會計帶來的影響會降低，因此也會在一定程度上抵銷這些效果。

Good. Now it's much clearer. Just one follow-up, please. Looking ahead, what do you see as the single largest driver for ROE expansion from current levels towards your through the cycle profitability ambitions, credit growth, lower credit costs, operating leverage or balance sheet optimization?

好的。現在清楚多了。請再追問一題。展望未來，從目前水準走向你們穿越景氣循環（through the cycle）的獲利目標時，你認為推動 ROE 擴張的單一最大驅動因素會是什麼：信貸成長、較低的信用成本、營運槓桿，或資產負債表最佳化？

I would say that credit growth. I mean we need to grow our top line, our credits. So that's the main one. Cost of risk reduction. I mean we are still at high levels of cost of risk.

我會說是信貸成長。我的意思是，我們需要讓營收端、也就是我們的放款規模成長。所以這是最主要的一點。其次是降低風險成本。我的意思是，我們目前的風險成本仍處於高位。

We know that. We need to continue reducing it, but something that is low. Of course, we are aiming at some point to get it to a 5%, 5.5% cost of risk, we ended with 9.3%. So we are still at higher levels. And so that will be reducing quarter-by-quarter, as I said before.

我們知道這一點。我們需要持續把它降下來，但目標是更低的水準。當然，我們的目標是在某個時間點把風險成本降到5%、5.5%，而我們目前收在9.3%。所以我們仍然處在較高水準。因此，如我先前所說，這會逐季下降。

I mean, for the year, we expect to be at 8.3%, and we are at 9.3% now. So that will also be helping this year and next year because next year, we expect to have another notch down on cost of risk. So that will be another big contributor to profitability. And we continue with our work in efficiency, even though we -- we made a big one after the [HVC] acquisition. We continue not with major initiative but with a regular business as usual plan of head count reduction, branches reduction or branches optimization.

我的意思是，就全年而言，我們預期會在8.3%，而現在是9.3%。所以這也會在今年與明年帶來幫助，因為明年我們預期風險成本還會再下調一個檔次。因此，這將是獲利能力的另一個重要貢獻來源。我們也持續推進效率提升的工作，儘管在[HVC]併購之後我們已經做了一次大的調整。我們會持續推動，但不是靠重大專案，而是以日常營運的方式，持續進行人力縮減、分行縮減或分行優化。

That will continue, so we can be more efficient, bring more automation, bring more AI to also have to contribute to the margin reduction. So the only point where it won't come is for margins increase if Argentina continues in this path, but it will be then a mix of balance sheet growth, lending growth, better cost of risk and better efficiency.

這會持續下去，讓我們更有效率、導入更多自動化、導入更多AI，也能對利差收斂有所貢獻。所以，唯一可能無法帶來的部分是利差提升——如果阿根廷持續走在這條路徑上；但屆時將會是資產負債表成長、放款成長、更好的風險成本以及更高效率的組合。

Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes，摩根大通。

Just a clarification regarding a few of your guidance, especially the cost of risk. I think you mentioned 8.3% for the full year. Just checking if this is the end of period or if this is the average for the year, and if this is Banco Galicia or if this is the entire holding because I guess your cost of risk for the first half for the group has been running around 11%, 11.5% and for the bank around 9.4%. So just checking 8.3%. This is the fourth Q '26?

我想就你們幾項指引做個釐清，特別是風險成本。我記得你提到全年8.3%。我想確認一下，這是期末值還是全年平均？另外，這是指Banco Galicia，還是整個控股公司？因為我理解你們集團上半年風險成本大約在11%、11.5%，而銀行大約在9.4%。所以想確認這個8.3%。這是2026年第四季的數字嗎？

Or is it the average of the year? So that's question number one. And the same about margins. You just mentioned means around 16%, but when I look to the NIMs of the group here, I see your NIMs for the first half closer to 18% like 17.9% 17.8%. So my question is, is the average or the end of period? Because if this is the average, this would imply a much lower NIM in the second half of the year? Thank you.

還是全年平均？這是第一個問題。利差也是一樣。你剛提到大約16%，但我看集團的NIM，上半年比較接近18%，像是17.9%、17.8%。所以我的問題是，這是平均值還是期末值？因為如果這是平均值，就代表下半年NIM會顯著更低？謝謝。

Yeah, sorry. Yeah, I was talking about the bank, maybe I didn't clarify that. So it's -- the 8.3% is just a bank, which is at 9.3% now going to 8.3% for the full year for the 12 months, let's say, I mean, it's 8.3%, we expect to be the cost of risk of the bank only for the full year.

對，不好意思。對，我談的是銀行端，可能我沒有講清楚。所以——8.3%只是銀行端，目前是9.3%，全年（以12個月來看）要降到8.3%；也就是說，我們預期銀行單體全年風險成本為8.3%。

When I was talking about margins, yes, I was talking also about the bank which is around 17% something. So we expect just to end the year at 16% by the bank and the full group will be more or less around the total group, I think it's almost 18%. I think we expect to end the year around 17% let's say, in the last quarter, 17% in group and 16% in the bank. And cost of risk was bank and in the full year in the 12 months.

我在談利差時，是的，我同樣是在談銀行端，大約17%上下。所以我們預期銀行端年底會落在16%，而整個集團大概會在——我想接近18%。我想我們預期年底（例如最後一季）集團大約17%，銀行16%。而風險成本是指銀行端，且是以全年12個月計。

No. Super clear. Thank you for the clarifications.

了解。非常清楚。謝謝你的釐清。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Eduardo Resende, UBS.

Eduardo Resende，瑞銀。

I have two of my slides. So first, a quick follow-up on the growth trends that you highlighted. You mentioned some opportunities in corporate dollar loans than expanding the private sector. I just would like to know if we -- what we could expect for the retail segment? I mean if this more restricted approach that we saw in recent quarters could continue.

我有兩個問題。首先，針對你提到的成長趨勢做個快速追問。你提到公司美元放款有一些機會，並且在擴大民間部門。我想了解零售端我們可以期待什麼？我的意思是，近幾季我們看到較為保守的做法，是否會延續？

So this is the first question. And the second one is regarding NPLs. So you mentioned about some stability trends in the end of the quarter, and we all saw that through the broader trends. So if you could provide a quick color on which segments are driving this more significant inflation. It will be very helpful.

這是第一個問題。第二個問題是關於不良貸款（NPL）。你提到在季末看到一些穩定的趨勢，我們也從整體趨勢中看到了。所以如果你能簡單補充一下，是哪些分項在推動這個較顯著的上升。這會很有幫助。

Okay. The first was the growth in retail. I mean no, we are working had trying to grow also the retail portfolio, I mean, mainly in the personal loans arena, working with risk in order to go to different segments. And we have been seeing our volume in personal loans picking up from the bottom that we had that it was the first quarter of this year. We have been growing, the volume still is moving, the total portfolio is being moved slowly.

好的。第一個是零售成長。我的意思是，不，我們也在努力推動零售放款組合成長，主要是在個人貸款領域，並與風險部門合作，以便切入不同客群。我們看到個人貸款的量已經從今年第一季的低點回升。我們一直在成長，但整體組合的變動仍然較為緩慢。

But we expect that for the second half that can increase again very carefully, going to the right segments. I mean, we have now better products with a lower rates for better segments than going after those that even though they have lower rates, they have also lower cost of risk, also profitability is the same. And so we expect -- I mean, my point is we don't expect the growth we used to have. Still this year, of course, at some point, we'll resume the growth. But for the second half, I would say that a portfolio of personal loans may grow 4% to 5%.

但我們預期下半年可以再度增加，不過會非常謹慎，鎖定正確的客群。我的意思是，我們現在有更好的產品，對較佳客群提供較低利率；我們會去做那些——即使利率較低，但風險成本也較低，因此獲利能力其實相同。所以我們預期——我的重點是，我們不預期回到過去那種成長速度。當然，今年某個時間點會恢復成長。但就下半年而言，我會說個人貸款組合可能成長4%到5%。

But that's better than what we have been seeing. But it's something that we are working and doing champion challengers all the time in order to find ways to grow in the retail segment with good credit quality. And it's something that -- so we expect to improve, not at the point of the commercial engine. But again, we'll be very -- we are being very close to that. So to see whether it's the moment to restart the growth in that arena.

但這已經比我們近期看到的情況更好。這也是我們正在做的事情：持續進行champion challengers（冠軍/挑戰者）測試，以找出在維持良好信用品質的前提下，讓零售端成長的方法。而這也是——所以我們預期會改善，但不會到商業端引擎那樣的程度。但再次強調，我們會非常——我們會非常密切地觀察。以判斷是否已到重新啟動該領域成長的時點。

And the second point was NPLs, no? I mean NPLs, yes, we have seen -- we're starting to see the turnaround of that. I mean this is mainly -- the main products we have is credit cards and personal loans. And in both, we are seeing that. Of course, that -- as we said before, we are targeting different segments now, and we are attacking also different segments, higher -- I would say, higher segments, and that's paying back.

第二點是NPL，對嗎？我的意思是，NPL方面，是的，我們已經看到——我們開始看到它的轉折。我的意思是，我們主要的產品是信用卡與個人貸款。在這兩者上，我們都看到了這個現象。當然——如我們先前所說，我們現在鎖定不同的客群，也在切入不同的客群、更高——我會說是較高端的客群，而這正在帶來回報。

And we -- and that's what we are seeing improvements. We still continue to do champion-challenger tests to lower segments and still is not the time to grow -- to go back to lower segments, but at some point, we would -- for the end of the year, we expect to be at 6.3% in the bank of NPLs. So that's a reduction from where we are now. We are at 8.3% -- so -- and in general, I mean, we are seeing the amount of customers going or rolling through Stage 2 and 3 improving. So it's something that we expect to continue to see, and we are monitoring that very, very closely.

而我們——這正是我們看到改善的地方。我們仍持續進行 champion-challenger 測試以涵蓋較低分層，目前仍不是回到較低分層、擴張的時機，但在某個時間點，我們會——到今年年底，我們預期本行的不良貸款（NPL）比率將達到 6.3%。因此，這會比我們目前的水準更低。我們現在是 8.3%——所以——整體而言，我們看到進入或滾動至第 2 階段與第 3 階段的客戶數量正在改善。因此，這是我們預期會持續看到的趨勢，我們也非常、非常密切地監控。

Carlos Gómez-Lopez, HSBC.

Carlos Gómez-Lopez，匯豐（HSBC）。

Congratulations on the results and especially in the cost reduction very spectacular. I had a question about the composition of the loan portfolio. A year ago, about a quarter was in dollars. Now it's about 1/3, which is in dollars. Do you have any type of internal limit?

恭喜本次業績，尤其是成本下降非常驚人。我有一個關於放款組合結構的問題。一年前，大約四分之一是以美元計價。現在大約三分之一是以美元計價。你們是否有任何內部上限？

Where do you see this portfolio going forward? And since we were asking about economic assumptions, where do you expect this is critical? Where do you expect the dollar to be at the end of this year and next year?

你們如何看待這個組合未來的走向？另外，既然我們在問經濟假設，你們認為這一點很關鍵：你們預期今年年底與明年年底美元匯率會在什麼水準？

Thank you, Carlos. I mean, we have internal limits. But in terms of liquidity, all our deposits growth, we can grow the portfolio. So we are very strict in liquidity and very strict limit in the guiding dollars because, as you know, Argentina has its history of problems with that. So we are around 40% more liquidity in dollars that we are always 40% to 50% liquidity, and that's we are achieving that, compliant with that.

謝謝你，Carlos。我的意思是，我們有內部上限。但就流動性而言，我們所有存款的成長讓我們可以擴大放款組合。因此，我們在流動性上非常嚴格，對美元部位的指引上限也非常嚴格，因為如你所知，阿根廷在這方面有其歷史問題。所以我們在美元流動性方面一直維持約 40% 的超額流動性，通常維持在 40% 到 50%，而我們也達成並遵循這個要求。

But our deposit or grew a lot. So that's why we were able to increase portfolio as a core portfolio in dollars, we have a high proportion of the portfolio in dollars, which is short term, is exporter financing, which is very easy to not renew if we -- if our deposits in dollars goes down. So but again, we see -- we still have some room to grow with the current portfolio, the current deposits, but we are also, as I said before, issuing the dollar and commercial paper. So that will give us more capacity to lending dollars. But the limit again is as a liquidity over total deposit that we want to maintain, and we are very compliant with that.

但我們的存款成長很多。所以這就是為什麼我們能夠增加以美元計價的核心放款組合；我們的美元放款占比很高，且多為短期、出口商融資，如果——如果我們的美元存款下降，這些很容易選擇不續作。不過再說一次，以目前的放款組合與存款水準來看，我們仍有一些成長空間；同時，如我先前所說，我們也在發行美元與商業本票。這將給我們更多以美元放款的能力。但上限仍然是我們希望維持的「流動性占總存款」水準，而我們在這方面一直非常符合要求。

The other question was --

另一個問題是--

The dollar.

美元。

Dollar, I mean, for the end of this year, I think we are expecting like 1,600 and like 2,000 -- around 2,000 for the end of next year.

美元的話，我的意思是，今年年底我們預期大概在 1,600；明年年底大概 2,000——約 2,000 左右。

Pedro, Latin Securities.

Pedro，Latin Securities。

I wanted to ask on Naranja X specifically. We saw provisions declining quite significantly despite the increase in NPLs, obviously, the loan book also went down. But to ask going forward, how is the new NPL formation evolving this month? And also on coverage, how should we think this? I think, coverage on Naranja X and 90 on Banco Galicia. It's more like a floor and would you expect going back to 100?

我想特別問一下 Naranja X。我們看到在不良貸款（NPL）上升的情況下，提存卻顯著下降，當然放款餘額也下滑了。但我想問往前看，本月新的 NPL 形成（new NPL formation）趨勢如何？另外關於覆蓋率（coverage），我們應該怎麼看？我想 Naranja X 的覆蓋率，以及 Banco Galicia 的 90。這比較像是底線（floor）嗎？你們會期待回到 100 嗎？

Pedro, we can take the advantage that we have, Hernán García, Naranja X CFO, to answer the specific question about Naranja X. And then we can discuss the bank's coverage ratio.

Pedro，我們可以利用我們的優勢，請 Naranja X 的財務長 Hernán García 來回答關於 Naranja X 的具體問題。然後我們再討論銀行的覆蓋率。

Pedro, as you mentioned, we are already seeing a reduction in the cost of risk during the second quarter and for the second half, we still see further reductions on that metric. So in terms of something else for the year-end, we are expecting to be around [2%] or 17% from almost 20% levels that we have during the second quarter.

Pedro，如你所提到的，我們在第二季已經看到風險成本（cost of risk）下降，而在下半年，我們仍預期該指標會進一步下降。因此，就年底而言，我們預期大約在 [2%] 或 17%，相較於我們在第二季接近 20% 的水準。

As I mentioned recently, it's important to stress the trends that we still see in the short term delinquency rates, three days or four months rate delinquency rates are still going down, and that's why we are expecting a reduction in NPLs and a recovery in terms of the coverage ratio to the range of 100%.

如我最近提到的，重要的是要強調我們在短期逾期率的趨勢：3 天或 4 個月的逾期率仍在下降，這也是為什麼我們預期 NPL 會下降，且覆蓋率將回升至 100% 的區間。

Perfect. Just to be clear, the number was 17% of NPLs for the year-end.

很好。只是確認一下，這個數字是年底 NPL 17%。

Yes. Thank you, Pedro. And in the case of the bank, we see a gradual improvement in coverage, perhaps in the next quarter getting to 95% and close to 100% at year-end.

是的。謝謝你，Pedro。至於銀行方面，我們看到覆蓋率會逐步改善，可能在下一季達到 95%，並在年底接近 100%。

Lisandro Lloveras, one618.

Lisandro Lloveras，one618。

I have a question regarding volumes in loans and -- if you can please do a double click in the 10% to 15% loan growth, if it's expected peso loans to have a real loan or real growth will come from dollar loans?

我有一個關於放款量的問題——如果可以的話，請你們再深入說明一下 10% 到 15% 的放款成長：你們預期比索放款會有實質（real）成長，還是實質成長主要會來自美元放款？

I mean peso alone will be small to grow. I mean we'll try to push it, but I would say that peso alone will be small, very small growth in real terms than most of the growth will come from the commercial from the dollar side, I would say.

我的意思是，比索放款本身的成長會很小。我們會努力推動，但我會說，比索放款本身以實質來看只會是小幅、非常小幅的成長；大部分成長我認為會來自商業放款、也就是美元那一端。

Ignacio Sniechowski, Grupo IEB.

Ignacio Sniechowski，Grupo IEB。

I have two questions, quick questions. Focusing on the bank. Given the 38.8% in the efficiency ratio that reported in the second quarter, I wanted to know where do you see this metric by the end of 2026. And also what is the long-term figure that you have in mind once the synergies with the Galicia has and the other initiatives that you are currently feeling that it's like head count and branch reduction are completed.

我有兩個問題，簡短的問題。聚焦在銀行。鑑於你們第二季公布的效率比率（efficiency ratio）為 38.8%，我想了解你們預期到 2026 年底這個指標會在哪裡。另外，當與 Galicia 的協同效益以及你們目前正在推進的其他措施（例如人力與分行縮減）完成後，你們心目中的長期水準是多少？

I would say that for 2026, something below 40% for the bank, I would say, try to keep this is like 39%, around 39%. I think that, that will give for the rest of the year. I mean, checking the long term, of course, each reduction will cost more every point because, yes, we'll continue to do efficiencies, but if Argentina continues in this path, margins will go down also. So I'd say that our -- if I can to say a longer-term target, I would like to be between 37% and 38%. But below -- anything below 40% for us is good.

我會說，2026 年銀行端大概會在 40% 以下，我會說，盡量維持在 39% 左右、約 39%。我認為這會是今年其餘時間的狀況。至於長期來看，當然，每降低一個百分點的成本會更難，因為是的，我們會持續做效率提升，但如果阿根廷持續走在這條路徑上，利差也會下降。所以我會說，我們——如果要講一個更長期的目標，我希望在 37% 到 38% 之間。但對我們而言，低於 40% 的任何水準都很好。

We will try to end 37%, 38%, but we need to see how fast the margins also go down. But for us, really, it's very important to continue pursuing cost reductions, and we have now a lot of work streams that implies AI in the [lower] customer arena in the call center and contact teams arena in order to continue reducing costs. But again, that will also go pari passu with the margin reductions in the future. So I would say that aiming around 37%. But if we can stay below 40% in the longer run, I think that for us is a good achievement.

我們會努力以 37%、38% 作為年底目標，但我們也需要看利差下降的速度有多快。但對我們來說，持續追求降本非常重要；我們現在有很多工作流，包含在客服領域導入 AI，在客服中心與聯絡團隊領域導入 AI，以便持續降低成本。但同樣地，未來這也會與利差下降同步（pari passu）。所以我會說，目標大約是 37%。但如果長期能維持在 40% 以下，我認為對我們而言就是很好的成果。

Okay. And the second question, just quickly, I know it's some very difficult to answer this, but do you anticipate any regulatory improvements? I am specifically regarding the tax component on lending rates or potential reduction in reserve requirements. I know this is something that is very difficult to answer because it implies going on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy, but I'm sure you have it in the agenda. And I wanted to know your view on this for the medium and long term.

好的。第二個問題，簡單問一下，我知道這很難回答，但您是否預期會有任何監管面的改善？我特別指的是放款利率中的稅負組成，或是法定準備金要求可能下調。我知道這很難回答，因為這牽涉到貨幣政策與財政政策，但我相信你們一定也在關注。我想了解您對中長期的看法。

I mean it's something that you are talking about regulatory reserves, for example, is something I believe this is not in the agenda now of the Central Bank. Of course, talking about longer term when Argentina continues to grow. It loans to GDP and start to grow significantly the lending. I think that is something that may come back as an agenda for Central Bank, don't see this in the longer medium term -- in the short, medium term. But of course, if Argentina goes to that growth, significant growth in lending, we are all expecting, well, that can come back because it may be needed.

我的意思是，你提到例如監管準備金這類議題，我認為目前並不在央行的議程上。當然，若從更長期來看，當阿根廷持續成長，貸款占GDP比重開始上升、放款顯著成長時，我認為這可能會重新回到央行的議程上；但我不認為在短中期——也就是短期、中期——會發生。不過，若阿根廷真的進入那樣的成長、放款大幅成長（這也是我們都期待的），那麼它可能會回來，因為可能會有需要。

I'm talking about tax, I think that, yes, I mean, I think that the agenda of the government is to reduce taxes. So I think that part of the reduction of the cost of credit for customers is taxes. As you know, for example, IT, I think there is one of the -- that won't affect us as a bank, but it will affect customers and maybe help to increase lending. I think the idea to consumers in the lending to consumers. We are one of the few countries in the world that charge VIT to interest, and it's something that is coming back in the discussion because of the high interest rates in the market, et cetera.

至於稅負，我認為是的。我想政府的議程是要減稅。因此，我認為降低客戶信貸成本的一部分來自稅負。如你所知，例如IT，我想那是其中之一——它不會影響我們作為銀行，但會影響客戶，並可能有助於增加放款。我認為這個想法是針對消費者、也就是對消費者放款。我們是全球少數對利息課徵VIT的國家之一，而由於市場利率偏高等因素，這件事又回到討論中。

So something that at some point may be addressed to reduce all the tax burden that the tax has that -- sorry, the lending has in order to reduce the cost for customers. So I see more of that reduction of cost for customers and a benefit to us.

所以，某個時點可能會處理這件事，以降低放款所承擔的整體稅負——抱歉，是放款所承擔的稅負——以降低客戶成本。因此，我更看好的是客戶成本下降，對我們也會是利多。

We still have, again, as you know, the set taxes and will turn over tax from cities and from provinces, which is a very high burden that we all have. And that's something that we are, as you know, among the banking negotiations talking to a central bank to everyone raising the concern because as margins continue to go down, those costs will need to go down. There is no way that we can continue affording those costs.

我們仍然有——如你所知——印花稅，以及城市與省級的營業額稅（turnover tax），這是我們大家都承擔的非常沉重的負擔。而這也是我們（如你所知）在銀行業協商中，與央行及各方溝通時持續提出的關切，因為當利差持續下滑，這些成本就必須下降。我們不可能繼續負擔這些成本。

It's part of what we call the Argentine cost. So that's something that with time, I think that then we will need to go down. I don't know when, but it's something that I think that if Argentina continues stabilizing those high taxes will -- should go down and will go down and it's something that we will be also working with the other banks to always raise that on the change. As you know, (inaudible) is talking about regulatory things. So whatever this morning, the government announced a new financing for mortgages, something very new.

這是我們所謂的「阿根廷成本」的一部分。所以我認為隨著時間推進，這些成本必須下降。我不知道會在何時，但我認為如果阿根廷持續穩定，這些高稅負將——應該會下降，也會下降；我們也會與其他銀行一起持續推動、在改革時一再提出。如你所知，（聽不清）正在談監管面的事情。所以今天早上政府宣布了一項新的房貸融資方案，是非常新的。

I mean, so we are still analyzing it. It's paying deposits from one to five years to banks in UVA, in inflation-linked time deposits to lend to mortgages. With specific matters, an interest rate cap for customers and a size should be for first housing only.

我們還在分析。它是以UVA向銀行提供1到5年的存款資金，也就是與通膨連動的定期存款，用於發放房貸。並且有一些特定條件，包括對客戶的利率上限，以及規模應僅限於首購自住房。

But I think that's a very, very good news that -- the government is very welcomed that the warming thinking means to help mortgages to grow and to help how to solve the problem that the Argentine does have a capital market, a developed capital market that can buy securitization of mortgages, et cetera, that's something we can -- we have discussed in part, of course, which is good for the financial site mainly for the country, as you know, mortgages have to develop economies, families, et cetera.

但我認為這是非常、非常好的消息——政府的這種思路非常受歡迎，意味著要協助房貸成長，也協助解決阿根廷缺乏資本市場、缺乏能夠購買房貸證券化產品等成熟資本市場的問題；這也是我們可以——我們在某種程度上當然也討論過——這對金融體系、主要是對國家而言都是好事。正如你所知，房貸有助於經濟發展、家庭等。

So again, I cannot talk about the specifics of the program because it was announced this morning, so we need to analyze it. But in general, these initiatives, of course, is a good news and a good sign that is well received by us.

所以我無法談這個方案的細節，因為它是今天早上才宣布的，我們需要分析。但總體而言，這類倡議當然是好消息，也是我們樂見並正面看待的訊號。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Federico Cabelli, AdCap.

Federico Cabelli，AdCap。

We've seen a strong growth in dollar loans. And you mentioned that you went for growth in the second half of the year. I wanted to ask you about the other announcement the other Caputos announcement which allows lending dollar deposits to companies without to revenues. I wanted to ask if you plan on growing in this segment also.

我們看到美元貸款強勁成長。你也提到你們在下半年會追求成長。我想問另一項宣布，也就是Caputo的另一項宣布：允許把美元存款貸給沒有美元收入的企業。我想問你們是否也計畫在這個區隔成長。

Yes. I mean, for us, it doesn't change much because we already had availability of commercial type per dollar commercial paper issued and we -- before this announcement, we could lend to non-dollar producers with those commercial papers. So -- and we had availability. So for us, it doesn't bring additional -- they bring [station] availability, but we already had it. So it doesn't change a lot.

是的。我的意思是，對我們來說變化不大，因為我們原本就可以取得以美元計價的商業票據（commercial paper）發行所帶來的商業類資金來源，而且——在這項宣布之前——我們就可以用那些商業票據把資金貸給非美元生產者。所以——而且我們本來就有額度。因此，對我們而言，它不會帶來額外的——它帶來的是[station]可用性，但我們本來就有。所以影響不大。

I mean we go very careful on that name by name. We have been doing that with a few big names but it's something that we think will continue to go very carefully because, again, that the lending in dollars in Argentina will be always -- it brings an additional risk of potential devaluation, et cetera.

我的意思是，我們在這方面會非常謹慎，逐一客戶（name by name）評估。我們已經對少數大型客戶這麼做了，但我認為我們會繼續非常謹慎，因為在阿根廷以美元放款一向——會帶來額外風險，例如潛在的貶值等。

So I mean, we continue, as we have been done in the past, analyzing name by name, but we don't expect a huge growth because of this because, again, is something that we go very carefully. Not just for a matter of prudency with our balance sheet.

所以，我的意思是，我們會像過去一樣，逐一分析客戶，但我們不預期因為這項措施而出現大幅成長，因為我們仍會非常謹慎。不只是出於審慎原則，也是為了我們資產負債表的穩健。

Very clear. Thank you.

非常清楚。謝謝。

The question-and-answer session is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Pablo Firvida for the company's final remarks.

問答環節結束。我們想把時間交還給Pablo Firvida，請他做公司最後的結語。

Well, thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.

好的，感謝各位參加本次電話會議。如果你們還有任何問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。早安。再見。

Good morning, bye.

早安，再見。

Grupo Financiero Galicia conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and we wish you a nice day.

Grupo Financiero Galicia 電話會議現在結束。感謝各位的參與，祝各位有美好的一天。