Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day everyone and welcome to the Grupo Financiero Galicia Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Release Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Pablo Firvida. Please go ahead, sir.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Thank you. Good morning and welcome to this conference call. I will make a short introduction and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Federal Securities laws and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. According to private estimates, the Argentine economy showed a 2.6% annual drop for the fourth quarter of 2016, which compares with a 4.8% annual drop in the previous quarter.

  • In 2016, the economy showed a 2.8% annual drop. In the fourth quarter, the primary deficit reached 1.7% of GDP and after the payment of interest and income from ANSES and from the Argentine Central Bank, the global deficit represented 2.3% of GDP. In 2016, the primary deficit reached 4.6% of GDP, over achieving the official target of 4.8% of GDP.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics, consumer prices expanded 5.3% during the three months ended on December 31, 2016. For private estimates, inflation expanded 7% during the fourth quarter and 37.7% during the year. On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded their monetary base by ARS139 billion in the quarter, accumulating a 31.7% growth during the last 12 months.

  • The monthly average of the foreign currency exchange rate depreciated 4.8% from ARS15.10 per dollar in September to ARS15.83 per dollar in December, while the annual depreciation reached 32.1%. In December, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days decreased to 20%, 310 basis points lower than the 23.1% of September 2016. Private sector deposits in pesos at the end of the quarter amounted to ARS1,154 billion growing 10.5% during the fourth quarter and 26.7% in the last 12 months.

  • Transactional deposits in pesos increased 24.1% during the fourth quarter and peso-denominated time deposits decreased 2.9%. At the end of December, loans to the private sector in pesos amounted to ARS914 billion, recording an 11.3% increase from September 2016 and a 18.2% annual increase.

  • Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. Net income for 2016 amounted to ARS6 billion, mainly due to profit from Banco Galicia for ARS5.1 billion, from Sudamericana Holding for ARS633 million and from Galicia Administradora de Fondos for ARS187 million. Net income for the quarter amounted to ARS1.77 billion, 42.4% higher year-over-year, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS1.55 billion, Sudamericana Holding for ARS98 million and in Galicia Administradora Fondos for ARS66 million. The Bank's net income increased 48% from the year-ago quarter, as a consequence of the 35% year-over-year growth of net operating income, offset by a 35% increase in administrative expenses and a 90% increase in provisions for loan losses. Net financial income grew 30%, mainly due to the increase in the portfolio of loans to private sector and of government securities, partially offset by a decrease in the spread while net income from services grew 43%, mainly due to fees related to national and regional credit cards to credit under deposit accounts. Average interest earning assets grew ARS41 billion year-over-year and its yield decreased 197 basis points explained by 526 basis points decrease in interest rates on the portfolio of government securities together with 143 basis points decrease on the portfolio of loans to private sector. Interest-bearing liabilities grew ARS35 billion during the same period and its cost decreased 384 basis points as a result of the lower average interest rate on all its components, mainly on time deposits and debt securities. Provision for loan losses for the quarter amounted to ARS1.31 billion, 90% higher than this year of ARS0.69 billion recorded in the same quarter of the prior year, mainly due to those related to an individual's loan portfolio and to an increase of regulatory provisions as a consequence of the increase in the loan portfolio. Administrative expenses were 35% higher year-over-year with personnel expenses growing 37%, mainly as a consequence of salary increase agreements with the unions, a provision related to certain compensations and to non-recurring human resources expenses. The remaining administrative expenses grew 32%, mainly due to increases in cash transportation, transportation and accommodation, rentals, electricity and communication expenses and taxes.

  • The Bank's credit exposure to private sector reached ARS157 billion at the end of the quarter, up 37% in the last 12 months and deposits reached ARS152 billion, up 52% in a year as a consequence of the 18% increase in peso-denominated deposits and of 255% increase of dollar denominated deposits.

  • The Bank's estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 10.12% and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 9.92%, increasing 53 basis points and 52 basis points in the last 12 months respectively. As regards asset quality, the consolidated NPL ratio considering the loan book of the Bank, the credit card subsidiaries and CFA ended the quarter at 3.3%, recording a slight deterioration as compared with the 3.1% of the fourth quarter of the prior year.

  • The consolidated coverage of NPLs with allowances reached 100%, down from 112% recorded a year ago. As of December 31, 2016, the Bank's consolidated computable capital exceeded by ARS7 billion the ARS15 billion minimum capital requirement or 44%. And the regulatory capital ratio reached 11.82% growing 164 basis points from December 2015.

  • The Bank's liquid assets at the end of the quarter represented 72% of the Bank's transactional deposits and 47% of its total deposits, compared to 92% and 43% ratios from a year before respectively. Although 2016 was a year of transition in which many adjustments were made in order to solve a number of macroeconomic imbalances, and which have a significant impact on economic activity and on inflation, Grupo Financiero Galicia subsidiaries had good operating results while Banco Galicia was able to gain market share to keep its asset quality and liquidity metrics at reasonable levels and improve its capital values.

  • We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Carlos Macedo, Goldman Sachs.

  • Carlos Macedo - Analyst

  • I have a couple. One, could you talk about the outlook for 2017 in a little more detail, I mean, in the past, you were talking about 10% real growth in loans. You kind of got there in the fourth quarter already. Is that still the target for 2017, do you expect to the loan growth to remain as robust as it has? And if it does, is it going to driven by consumer like it was in the fourth quarter or do you expect the corporate side of the business to pick up steam going forward? Second question, asset quality, the ratio improved a little bit in the fourth quarter but you did see a strong growth in NPLs, is that more so because of the growth in the portfolio or should we be concerned that there could be some pressure on asset quality coming in subsequent quarters because of difficulties in paying loans and things like that?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, first on loan growth, we maintain our guidance, meaning that we see this year inflation around 20%. Actually now we have slight lower target for inflation. In the past, we were closer to 22%, now we are speaking about 20% range and loans growing at around 35%. We don't see a sharp break - a change in the breakdown of loans. We saw, as you mentioned, a pickup in consumer lending or loans to individuals, personal loans and credit cards. But we are already seeing even in these first 2 months of 2017 a pickup in demand from the commercial side of the business. We think that there were many CapEx projects that were not considered in the past and now are being analyzed. Also, we have a large liquidity in dollars due to the tax amnesty program. So we are now lending in dollars to these corporate, to these mainly exporters or in the value change of exporters. In terms of asset quality, there are two, I would say, directions. One is the recovery in GDP. We are forecasting 3.5% growth and also industrial production going up and the loan book growing, means asset quality should be improving. Also, we are thinking in most of the unions gaining purchasing power in the union agreements, but on the other hand inflation going down affects negatively collection. So considering both, let's say, forces in different directions, we can think of, I would say, something flattish during the year, perhaps with some seasonality that we don't see not real big changes in the consolidated NPL ratio. Once CFA is not consolidated with the Bank, once the Central Bank approves the transaction, clearly that will be a one shot improvement, but the others are, I would say, the macro trends we see.

  • Carlos Macedo - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And is that the same what you say is the same thing for cost of risk, so provisions to average loans. I mean there was a change in regulation, but you think you kind of can keep the same level as you did in the fourth quarter.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, we think we should have it a little bit lower instead of a 4% range, getting back to the 3% level we had in the previous quarters.

  • Operator

  • Nicolas Riva, Citi.

  • Nicolas Riva - Analyst

  • So the first question on capital, we did see the capital ratios continuing to come down a bit and Tier 1 ratio 8.8% as of the end of the quarter. So I guess my question is what's the Bank's view on capital, do you feel that the current capital level is okay to face the expected acceleration in credit demand in Argentina?

  • And also you did reach an agreement to sell CFA, the low income consumer business, that's going to add about 60 basis points to capital. Any other action that you are considering in order to strengthen capital levels and would you consider doing an equity offering at these levels?

  • And the second question on Patagonia, according to some newspapers, the sale of the bank could be about to start. What can you say in terms of your interest on the bank, would it be a good complement to your franchise, anything you can say here? Thanks.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Okay. Hi, Nicolas. Well, the capital ratio, it clearly is being monitored closely. We are working on that and also on efficiency, these are I would say the two main Achilles' heels points we have. We already improved the capital ratio through the issuance of a subordinated bond. We are having a good organic net income growth, you mentioned the 50 basis points we could be increasing the capital ratio once the CFA transaction is approved by the Central Bank.

  • In 2018, we will be fully IFRS and we will have our fixed assets, let's say, mark to market that will increase also our capital ratio. But in general, I would say that we will think in tapping the markets, if we don't have other alternatives, the priority will be not to issue more shares, basically in order not to dilute the controlling shareholders, but I would say the capital will not be something that will prevent us for a follow or a go to get, or I would say, support the growth of our clients. Basically, we will support our clients if the loan demand is there, right. I don't know if I was completely clear on that.

  • Nicolas Riva - Analyst

  • No, yes, it was. Thanks, Pablo.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Okay. An in the case of Banco Patagonia, as far as we know, there is not a public process. So then I should make a general statement that typically is that being the largest financial group in Argentina, basically domestic financial group, any investment bank with a mandate come to us, we analyze everything and we could be submitting a price if it makes sense, then we have to see if we win. So this is a general statement, I cannot tell you specifically on Banco Patagonia, because we don't have the details in terms of synergies, cost savings. We don't know - basically the things we look at in order to think in cost savings, gain in economy of scale, gain in clients, we don't know what overlappings and so on.

  • Operator

  • Juan Vasquez, Puente Financial.

  • Juan Vasquez - Analyst

  • Yes, Pablo, I was wondering if you could give us some more color on the potential impact, if any, that you see in the consolidated net fee income due to the fact that when we have to assume the cost of life insurance products and mainly taking into consideration that those insurance policies are normally contracted with Galicia Seguros. And secondly, would like to know if you think current net interest margin levels will be maintained during 2017 or [is that] a compression?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, first on the insurance, the regulation says that life insurance related to a credit product cannot be charged to the clients beginning in October last year. So that will affect mainly our Galicia Seguros subsidiary, actually you can see already in the fourth quarter, a reduction in net income. That reduction was explained by many different factors I will tell you in a minute. I would say the loss of business due to this life insurance credit related fee is roughly ARS65 million. The rest is more claims, less financial income due to a reduction in assets under management, some investment that was done in order to have a new contact center in order to sell different products to different clients. Basically, in order to try to replace the revenues from this product that we cannot charge anymore.

  • In the case of the Bank, we can self-insure, I don't know if that is the correct word in English, but basically we can have no insurance on that and take our internal risk or contract an insurance, but we cannot pass through that to the client. So basically that will be, I would say, the immediate impact, of course, the insurance team is working to try to replace such revenue from other sources. It will not be immediate, it will be a gradual.

  • In the case of net interest margins, you mentioned, there, we saw a sequential improvement in the four quarters of 2016. In general, there should be some slight compression and, of course, the breakdown of loans and deposits in terms of type and also currency is very important. You can see that in the fourth quarter a better breakdown in terms of transactional deposits in comparison with term deposits, it helped the margin. But if we think in all 2017, we should see some, let's say, 50 basis point compression, taking into consideration all these [buyables]. Of course, this is or this comes with this real growth in volume that I mentioned before.

  • Operator

  • Alonso Garcia, Credit Suisse.

  • Alonso Garcia - Analyst

  • My first question is just a follow-up on the previous question on NIMs, this 50 basis points compression you mentioned is in comparison to the level posted in 4Q 2016 or 2016 as a whole?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • 2016 as a whole.

  • Alonso Garcia - Analyst

  • Okay, perfect, thank you. And my second question is in regards to the competitive landscape in Argentina. We saw one of your competitors undertaking a very aggressive campaign for acquiring new customers during the fourth quarter of last year. Are you seeing other competitors doing something similar, and also do you expect to launch a similar campaign at Galicia at some point this year? Thank you.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • We are always on campaign in order to get the affluent clients. Actually, we launched our segment Galicia Eminent many years ago. In some, I would say, particular opportunities appear when there are M&A transactions and some banks want to get clients from the bank that is on sale, but it is our permanent objective to get this more affluent clients.

  • We opened branches in during all 2016, but particularly in the fourth quarter. One of the objectives, of course, is to get, well, individuals SMEs, agriculture sector clients. So clearly, we are always thinking on that, but we don't see any specific jump in expenses due to that objective. Nothing I would say extraordinary.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Alessandro Arlant, Bank of America.

  • Alessandro Arlant - Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on a previous question, and maybe I didn't get the answer. Are there any other asset sales after CFA in the short to medium term as you try to reposition the business and focus more on the traditional commercial banking business moving away from the transactional nature of the Argentine banking system, right, of the past?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • No. If you look at our Companies, Grupo Financiero Galicia owns the Bank, the insurance company and the asset manager, Galicia Administradora de Fondos. Below the Bank, we have the credit card company Tarjeta Naranja and Tarjetas Cuyanas with its brand Nevada and CFA. So unless we have an IPO of some of these businesses, we don't think a divestiture of any of this related businesses.

  • Alessandro Arlant - Analyst

  • Thanks for clarifying that. And then my question would be in terms of also a question related to asset quality. We're seeing the loan coverage ratio come down, and obviously as you grow the loan portfolio, you'll see natural pressure in terms of asset quality. Is there any guidance or any financial policy at the Board level to keep loan loss coverage at 100% or can we see that coverage fall due to the nature of how you provision for [past due] loans in Argentina?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • They were, - let's say, a target is to have levels between 100% and 110%. That has been the number for the last, I don't know, five years, I guess, but actually in 2011, the coverage was a little bit higher because of unanticipated reserves we created but typically between 100% and 120% we feel comfortable with.

  • Alessandro Arlant - Analyst

  • And then my second question would be related to the dollar bonds that you have issued. I mean, it has been quite successful. The bonds are trading at a high premium and the international capital markets are quite open for the Argentine banks to continue issuing, do you have any intent to issue in 2017 as an ancillary source of funding as you grow the loan portfolio?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • You are mentioning the Tier 2 bond, the $250 million?

  • Alessandro Arlant - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Or the one we issued last Friday?

  • Alessandro Arlant - Analyst

  • It could be either a senior or subordinated bond just if you would take the opportunity to issue again in the international capital markets this year.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, the main objective of issuing the last year bond, the Tier 2 capital, was to replace a previous subordinated bond that - as it was getting to its maturity; in terms of capital, we could compute just 24% of the amount. So the issuance replaced the previous bond and added 100% in terms of capital ratio. Last Friday, we issued locally a peso-linked bond at Badlar, a three-year bond at Badlar, that's a spread of 269 basis points. The thing with issuing dollars is that we increase the risk, I would say the currency risk of our balance sheet and basically our lending is mainly pesos and thus we have lots of deposits in dollars. We already have that bucket, let's say, covered but many times they are windows of opportunity and our financials units decides to issue. So I cannot tell you precisely if we are going to do it or not, but these are I would say the general statements in terms of issuing dollars really is not the best tool or the currency for us.

  • Operator

  • Tunde Ojo, Harding Loevner

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • I just want to talk about asset quality, again, cost of risk is more higher in 2016 and it seems to me like beyond the regional credit card companies, Banco Galicia is also struggling with its consumer portfolio. So is this just a signal of recessionary environment in Argentina or is there any other specific impact on the consumer? Why do you think this would decline in 2017 as you guided earlier?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • No. Basically, the cost of risk increased because of certain deterioration in the individual portfolio both in the bank and in the credit card company, but also due to the growth of the loan book, so we have to have a provision on the new loans, the regulatory 1% provisioning. As I mentioned, we see NPL ratio flattish during the year due to the recovery we are already seeing in employment, in purchasing power, certain green shoots in different areas of the economy. Remember in 2016, we had a 2.8% GDP growth and we are forecasting a 3.5% growth in GDP for this year. So, when you speak with commercial people of the different segments, they tend to say that they see the worst already behind us. So again, we are seeing the cost of risk should decrease this year in terms of percentage of average loans.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Yes, okay. And the 1% regulatory provision is that a new regulation for 2016 or has it always been there?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • No, it's not new. It's always been there.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Okay, so the pick-up really in cost of risk is mostly due to [distressed] and the consumer and you think that should change in 2017, correct?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Exactly. Also from a seasonality standpoint, typically beginning in the second quarter, you see all the union agreements being settled and there you see a recovery in the purchasing power, and together with this slight improvement in employment and the recovering economy will imply a better collection going forward.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Okay. And you mentioned something earlier while answering a questions that I didn't quite follow. So I wanted to ask again. You said when inflation is declining, it kind of impacts your collection and asset quality. Can you help me understand why that is the case in Argentina or for you?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Yes. Well, many times when you have high inflation, and if you get salary increases that keep your purchasing power, certain debts become, I would say, are dilutive, if the rate is fixed. So many times inflation, I would say, helps the collection or helps certain payment of debts. Inflation going down perhaps will - but again the inflation compared with salary increases, what we must look at is the purchasing power recovery.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Yes, for sure. For your loans on the consumer side are fixed right for the most part in terms of the interest rate?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Yes.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Okay, I got it. The other question I have is, do you have any guidance for deposit growth and expense growth for 2017?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Deposits around - I would say, above 30% in order to - that's why we also have this guidance or expectation of loans growing around 35%. And what was the other item you asked around the growth?

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Expense growth, administrative expense.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Yes. Administrative expenses, well, we'll have to see what is the final percentage increase in salaries between the banks and the banking union. Right now, the banking union is, I would say, fighting or saying that banks have to close a 24% increase for the first, I guess, five or six months of the year and then to reopen the negotiations. The government is trying to set salary increases at around 18%, of course, that will have an important impact on our administrative expenses, we got 55% of the total administrative expenses are personnel expenses.

  • The rest of the administrative expenses in a certain way have a component of other unions [with agreement], but we also are in the process of expanding our branch network. We already opened like 24 branches last year, it's likely that we will open a similar level this year, because although we are investing a lot in digital and in all the Internet transaction capabilities, we still need to have more branches, as the number of branches per 100,000 inhabitants is one of the lowest in the region.

  • So that will put some additional pressure on expenses. So if inflation is 20%, the rest of expenses should grow, let's say, at 25%, 27%. We'll also have to look at the - well, as I mentioned, the union agreement and also to certain, I would say, particularities in terms of electricity, transportation of cash, these items are also relevant.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Got it.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • But definitely above inflation.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Okay, great, thanks. And the last one is can you give an update on the credit card deal that was looking to change the merchant discount rate on debit and credit card. Where are we on that process or that law and any update on that would be really helpful.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Yes. The lower chamber approved an alternative project in December last year that improved the original project approved by the Senators and now the Senators must analyze, approve or amend this project of the lower chamber. This alternative project is much better because it will reduce gradually the merchant discount rate on credit cards from 3% to 2%. The original one to get from 1.5% to 3% - from 3% to 1.5% in one shot. This means that it will take it to 2.6% in the first year, 2.3% in the second and 2% will be the final level. And it will affect the banking cards, not the regional credit cards transactions. In the case of the debit card, the original project was to reduce it from 1.5% to 0%, we always said that that was irrational. This alternative project is considering taking it to 1%, again gradually from 1.5% to 1.3% to 1.15% and in the third year to 1% and there it is settled. This will give us all the banks more time to adapt it, meaning less promotions or awards or discounts or installments with no interest. So basically this alternative project if it is approved is much better than the original one. But so far, we still have the 3% merchant discount rate.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • Yes, so the Senate needs to approve this before it goes through, right.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Exactly.

  • Tunde Ojo - Analyst

  • And the last one from me is just an accounting question is for Banco Galicia's financials, right, you have this line called net other income, which grew significantly. What is driving that, is it fee investment or minority interest or what exactly is a driver of that growth?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • In the fourth quarter, we had an extraordinary event that was the sale of one building we have here in the City of Buenos Aires, not the big headquarter we have or the one in front. It's another one, one that we purchased in 2001 and the [extraordinary] effect was roughly ARS167 million gain in the fourth quarter. The rest are the typical items we include in that line due to the regulations of the Central Bank.

  • Operator

  • Alejandra Ronda, ITAU.

  • Alejandra Aranda - Analyst

  • Good morning, Pablo, and congratulations on the results. I have two questions if I may. The first is on the deposit in US dollars. They increased quite a lot because you were super successful on gaining deposits after tax amnesty. What are you planning for them, would you rather just keep it as deposits in the future when people regain the ability of doing what they want or are you rather willing to shift that into, I don't know, asset management or funds. And then the second question would be, I know it's really recent, but due to the changes in pricing here, it's made transparent for consumers that the financial cost of promotions are quite expensive. And my first approach to retailers is that they are starting to see changes in consumer pattern. Do you have any color on what could we expect in terms of consumer credit card demand and personal loan demand. And are you watching the competition from the public banks, what's your view on that?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Okay. Well, first, hi, Alejandra. The growth in dollar denominated deposits, as you said, was very significant in the fourth quarter due to the Tax Amnesty plan. Of the total deposits in dollars, roughly one-third are due to this Tax Amnesty plan. They have time till the end of March, or they are frozen in those accounts till the end of March.

  • We are already lending to corporate an [exporters] part of those dollars and we are having the rest, I would say, in the Central Bank, as a liquidity requirement. We think that a big part of that, of those dollars due to the Tax Amnesty plan, will remain in the financial system and they will, of course, move perhaps purchasing a car and they will get back to the financial system, not necessarily being just in the deposit with no yields.

  • The second question was - sorry, which was the second question?

  • Alejandra Aranda - Analyst

  • What's your view on what's going on in terms of credit cards and consumer demands, yes.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, for us it's positive to have a better EBITDA view on pricing or between a cash or in installments. So really for us it's better, it's a good opportunity also to compare the financial cost with other banks. And the credit card usage, if you pay with no installments, it's similar to cash, the government is trying to give, I would say, incentives or to push the banks to grant personal loans directly to finance the consumer, and not the merchant. So for us these measures are a positive basically.

  • Alejandra Aranda - Analyst

  • Okay, so you don't foresee any change in credit card demand or shifting to personal loans?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • No. So far, no.

  • Alejandra Aranda - Analyst

  • Okay. And a quick question on the merchant discount rate. With everything that we discussed, do you think that this could be pushed forward, the debate at the Senate?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, this is an election year and I don't think it's a priority for our politician. So it's hard to say, the one that was pushing this was an SMEs association. So if I had to guess, I would say that there are some, I would say, 50% project, this project will be treated in the Senate. But I cannot say in which month. The basic idea is that if this alternative project is approved, the situation is much better for us.

  • Operator

  • Carlos Gomez, HSBC.

  • Carlos Gomez - Analyst

  • Two quick questions. You mentioned your expectation for a 50 basis point decline in margin, and the situation about fees and insurance. Do you expect a decline in the cost-income ratio for next year, or it's a stabilization. And second you also mentioned the regulatory change, which will start [uptick] in the value of your real estate, can you give us an estimate as to how much you think that will increase your book value at present. And can you confirm that it will be valid as of January of next year? Thank you.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Hi, Carlos. As I mentioned, we are focusing on improving efficiency and also the capital ratio. I would say that the most [acid] number would be to have a flattish cost to income ratio, but our objective is to improve it gradually, due to this growth in fees and in volume. But we are also investing in branches, as I mentioned. So if I have to give a guidance, I would say some slight improvement this year and further improvement in the coming years.

  • In terms of IFRS revaluation, although we will become fully IFRS in 2018, in the first quarter of 2017, in notes to the financial statements, we will have to tell what will be the impact of IFRS because it's fixed assets or real estate, but there are also other impacts in terms of provisioning, deferred income tax, intangible assets. We don't know yet the net impact, you will have to wait till May when we will announce the first quarter results.

  • Carlos Gomez - Analyst

  • Any, again, approximate idea just order of [funding] we are talking about 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% of your book value?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Some research analyst spoke about $200 million, $300 million. This is not our number, if I have to give, I would say, an educated guess, I will be tempted to be closer to the lowest level, because this number must be approved by [only those] Central Bank. So in my opinion, the number will be or the decision would be very prudent.

  • Operator

  • And we have no further questions in the queue at this time.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Okay, thank you for attending this call -

  • Operator

  • Excuse me, I apologize, we did just have someone pop in. Frederic De Maris, UBS.

  • Frederic De Mariz - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon, everyone, thank you for the opportunity. Pablo, just a follow-up. I missed the first question, so apologies if this is a repetition for you. Can you share with us your latest views on M&A and we were reading quite a bit about Patagonia, but also other banks. So just wanted to hear from you if an acquisition could be of interest if you would consider coming back to the markets for follow on or kind of your latest thoughts on what would make sense for the Group?

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, hi, Fred. I mentioned that we are open to analyze anything that is on sale basically being the largest domestic financial group in Argentina, any mandate will come to us. We will analyze it and if it makes sense, we will make a bid and then we have to see if we win that is what I said. In the case of Patagonia, we don't know of, I would say, a formal process. I know that some minority shareholders have [reports] against Bando Brasil, Banco Brasil being a state-owned bank, I guess must have lots of bureaucratic approvals in order to take these kind of decisions. So if the process becomes, I would say, a process, a formal process, we will be looking at it, as the same as any other bank that is on sale, we don't see of any other, but if it comes to us, we will analyze it definitely. And depending on the size, we could be considering increasing the capital that is basically what I discussed in a previous question.

  • Operator

  • And Mr. Firvida, we have no further questions.

  • Pablo Firvida - IR

  • Well, okay, thank you all for attending this call. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. And well, have a good morning or afternoon, the ones in Brazil and Buenos Aires. Bye-bye.

  • Operator

  • And that will conclude today's conference call. Thank you everyone for your participation, you may now disconnect.