GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good evening, everyone, and thank you for attending today's GFL fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Jasmine, and I will be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions)

各位晚上好，感謝各位參加今天GFL 2025年第四季財報電話會議。我叫茉莉，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。（操作說明）

At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Patrick Dovigi, Founder and CEO of GFL. You may now proceed.

現在，我想把電話交給 GFL 的創辦人兼執行長 Patrick Dovigi。您現在可以繼續了。

Thank you, and good afternoon. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call, and thank you for joining us. This afternoon, we will be reviewing our results for the fourth quarter and providing our guidance for 2026. I am joined this afternoon by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through our forward-looking disclaimer before we get into the details.

謝謝，下午好。歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議，感謝各位的參與。今天下午，我們將回顧第四季業績，並給予 2026 年的業績展望。今天下午，我們的財務長盧克·佩洛西將和我們一起，在深入細節之前，先帶我們了解一下我們的前瞻性免責聲明。

Thank you, Patrick. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website.

謝謝你，派崔克。大家下午好。感謝您的參與。我們已發布盈利新聞稿，其中包含重要資訊。新聞稿已發佈在我們的網站上。

During this call, we'll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators.

在本次電話會議中，我們將根據適用的加拿大和美國證券法做出一些前瞻性聲明，包括關於我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性。

Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise. This call will include a discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators.

任何前瞻性陳述均不構成對未來績效的保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些前瞻性聲明僅代表截至今日的觀點，我們不承擔任何更新這些聲明的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件和發展或其他原因。本次電話會議將討論一些非國際財務報告準則（IFRS）指標。有關這些非 IFRS 指標的調節表，請參閱我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件。

I'll now turn the call back over to Patrick.

現在我將把電話轉回給帕特里克。

Thank you, Luke. We started 2025 by presenting our strategy to drive best-in-class financial results and this year's results demonstrate we are doing exactly what we said we would. Our relentless focus on value creation through the optimization of our existing platform is yielding results that are consistently ahead of expectations, and our future has never been brighter.

謝謝你，盧克。2025 年伊始，我們提出了實現一流財務表現的策略，而今年的業績表明，我們正在按計劃行事。我們始終專注於透過優化現有平台來創造價值，並不斷取得超越預期的成果，而我們的未來從未如此光明。

In 2025, we reached a historical milestone of 30% adjusted EBITDA margin for the first time in our company's history. This result is attributable to the tireless efforts of our 15,000 employees and ongoing contributions from implementing the operational priorities we highlighted at last year's Investor Day. Ongoing price discovery, along with the operational efficiencies within our portfolio remain a core focus to drive appropriate returns for the high-quality services we provide.

2025年，我們公司首次實現了調整後EBITDA利潤率達到30%的歷史性里程碑。這項成果歸功於我們 15,000 名員工的不懈努力，以及我們去年投資者日上重點強調的各項營運優先事項的持續落實。持續的價格發現以及我們投資組合內的營運效率仍然是推動我們提供的高品質服務獲得適當回報的核心重點。

In 2025, we meaningfully outperformed our initial price expectations, furthered our realization of the incremental pricing opportunities we identified at Investor Day. The pricing environment remains constructive, and we are confident in our ability to continue to price at an appropriate spread above our internal cost of inflation.

2025 年，我們的業績顯著超過了最初的價格預期，進一步實現了我們在投資者日上確定的增量定價機會。定價環境依然良好，我們有信心繼續以高於內部通膨成本的適當價差進行定價。

Q4 volumes were ahead of plan, and we ended the year with 50 basis points of positive volume, a remarkable achievement considering the macro environment we're in. We see this differentiated outcome as yet another testament to the quality of our portfolio, underpinned by our overall market selection and the execution of our returns-focused capital deployment strategy.

第四季銷售超出預期，全年銷售成長 50 個基點，考慮到我們所處的宏觀環境，這是一個了不起的成就。我們認為這種差異化的結果再次證明了我們投資組合的質量，這得益於我們整體的市場選擇和以回報為導向的資本部署策略的執行。

Consistent with the third quarter, both operational and SG&A cost intensity continued to trend lower in the quarter and for the full year. The levers we outlined at Investor Day continue to contribute to this performance including enhanced operational efficiency, improving labor turnover, fleet optimization and procurement benefits as a result of our greater scale.

與第三季一致，本季及全年營運成本及銷售、一般及行政成本強度均持續呈下降趨勢。我們在投資者日上概述的各項措施繼續為此業績做出貢獻，包括提高營運效率、改善勞動力流動、優化車隊以及因規模擴大而帶來的採購優勢。

The combined impact of these initiatives are apparent in the 30% adjusted EBITDA margin we achieved for the year, an industry-leading 130 basis point increase over 2024. To achieve such results in the face of an ongoing macro headwind, reinforces our conviction in our stated goal of achieving low to mid-30s margins by 2028.

這些舉措的綜合影響在我們今年實現了 30% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，比 2024 年增長了 130 個基點，在行業中處於領先地位。在宏觀經濟持續逆風的情況下取得這樣的成果，更加堅定了我們對在 2028 年實現 30% 左右利潤率這一既定目標的信念。

2025 was also a transformative year in terms of our capital allocation strategy; the benefits, which include the sale of our ES segment, simplified our business into a pure-play solid waste leader. The evaluations achieved in both the ES transaction and recapitalization of GIP demonstrated the immense equity value we have created in both of these assets. Our retained investment in these businesses allows GFL to continue to participate in meaningful value creation.

2025 年也是我們資本配置策略的變革之年；其帶來的益處，包括出售我們的 ES 部門，使我們的業務簡化為純粹的固體廢棄物處理領導者。ES交易和GIP資本重組的評估結果表明，我們在這兩項資產中創造了巨大的股權價值。我們對這些企業的保留投資使 GFL 能夠繼續參與有意義的價值創造。

The proceeds received from the divestitures recapitalization allowed us to materially delever our balance sheet and buy back over 10% of our own stock. We deployed nearly $1 billion to accretive M&A, largely in the back half of the year, providing an incremental tailwind as we head into 2026.

透過資產剝離和資本重組獲得的收益使我們能夠大幅降低資產負債率，並回購超過 10% 的自身股票。我們投入了近 10 億美元用於增值併購，主要集中在下半年，這為我們邁向 2026 年提供了額外的順風。

Regarding the share buybacks, recall that we originally intended to deploy $2.25 billion of the ES proceeds into share repurchases, a level of investment that we completed early in the first half of the year. Due to the share price dislocation in the second half of the year, we saw additional share repurchases as a highly prudent use of capital to create shareholder value over the long term. As a result, we deployed an additional $750 million into incremental buybacks, inclusive of both the $1 billion of M&A spend and the incremental share repurchases, we exited 2025 with the lowest year-end net leverage in our history.

關於股票回購，請記住，我們最初計劃將 ES 收益中的 22.5 億美元用於股票回購，我們在今年上半年初完成了這項投資水準。由於下半年股價出現波動，我們認為額外回購股票是一種非常謹慎的資本運用方式，可以從長遠角度創造股東價值。因此，我們額外投入 7.5 億美元用於增量回購，其中包括 10 億美元的併購支出和增量股票回購，到 2025 年底，我們的淨槓桿率達到了公司歷史上的最低水準。

With the benefits of the implementation of the capital allocation strategy in place, we entered 2026 with ultimate balance sheet flexibility. This set up, together with natural deleveraging from organic growth will allow us to execute on a robust M&A pipeline while maintaining leverage in the low to mid-3s as a range to which we remain highly committed.

憑藉資本配置策略實施帶來的好處，我們以最大的資產負債表彈性進入了 2026 年。這種架構，加上有機成長帶來的自然去槓桿化，將使我們能夠執行穩健的併購計劃，同時將槓桿率維持在 3 倍左右的低點到中位，這是我們仍然高度致力於實現的目標。

As for the base business guidance, Luke will walk us through the details, but as exactly as we previously indicated. Recall that in 2024 and in 2025, we laid out an extremely detailed plan, raised the guide multiple times throughout the year and beat our expectations on all financial metrics. We see multiple avenues of upside to our current 2026 guide, and that gives us confidence in our ability to meet and potentially exceed the expectations for the year.

至於基礎業務指導，盧克會詳細地向我們介紹，但會完全按照我們之前所說的進行。回想一下，在 2024 年和 2025 年，我們制定了非常詳細的計劃，全年多次提高目標，並在所有財務指標上都超出了預期。我們看到 2026 年業績指引有多種上行空間，這讓我們有信心達到甚至超越當年的預期。

Lastly, in 2025, we also progressed on our previously stated intention to maximize index inclusion opportunities. Last month, we announced the relocation of our executive headquarters to the US. The relocation broadens our eligibility for participation in US equity indices while preserving our eligibility for inclusion in Canadian indices. We expect this strategy will help increase GFL's visibility with investors and ultimately drive a wider shareholder base.

最後，在 2025 年，我們也朝著先前提出的目標邁出了步伐，即最大限度地增加納入指數的機會。上個月，我們宣布將執行總部遷至美國。此次搬遷擴大了我們參與美國股票指數的資格範圍，同時保留了我們參與加拿大指數的資格。我們預計這項策略將有助於提高 GFL 在投資者中的知名度，並最終擴大股東基礎。

I'll now pass the call over to Luke to walk through the quarter and guidance in more depth and then share some closing comments before we open it up for Q&A.

現在我將把電話交給盧克，讓他更深入地講解本季業績和指導意見，然後在開放問答環節之前，我會發表一些總結性評論。

Thanks, Patrick. Q4 revenues grew 7.3% on account of better-than-expected contributions from pricing, volume and M&A, which more than offset the greater-than-anticipated headwinds from FX, pricing was 6.4% for the quarter and 6.1% for the year, 70 bps better than our original plan, largely on account of EPR transitional benefits and realization of the incremental pricing opportunities we articulated at Investor Day. The sequential quarterly acceleration of price throughout 2025 sets us up with a very high visibility into 2026 pricing.

謝謝你，派崔克。第四季營收成長 7.3%，這主要得益於定價、銷售和併購方面超出預期的貢獻，足以抵銷匯率波動帶來的超出預期的不利影響。定價方面，本季成長 6.4%，全年成長 6.1%，比我們最初的計畫高出 70 個基點，這主要歸功於 EPR 過渡期的收益以及我們在投資者日上闡述的增量定價機會的實現。2025 年全年價格逐季加速上漲，這使我們能夠非常清楚地了解 2026 年的價格走勢。

Q4 volumes were 70 basis points ahead of plan largely on account of unanticipated special waste activity in several of our markets. Lapping hurricane volume, the initial ramp of EPR and the commencement of a larger municipal contract in the prior year were the primary drivers of the negative volume print for the quarter. C&D related volume continued to be soft, but we remain well positioned for a broader economic recovery in this end of our business when it happens.

第四季銷售量比計畫高出 70 個基點，主要原因是我們在幾個市場中出現了意料之外的特殊廢棄物處理活動。上一季颶風帶來的降雨量增加、EPR 的初期增長以及一項更大的市政合約的開始，是導致該季度降雨量為負值的主要原因。建築與拆除相關業務量仍疲軟，但我們已做好充分準備，迎接該業務領域更廣泛的經濟復甦。

Adjusted EBITDA margin continues to expand, with Q4 margins reaching 30.2%, the highest Q4 margin in our history. Adjusted EBITDA margins were up 175 basis points in our Canadian segment and behind 10 basis points in the US although US margins were materially up when excluding the impact of prior year hurricane volumes and acquisitions and commodity prices. Commodities continued to be a drag on margins with market pricing decelerating another 10% from Q3. Excluding the impact of commodities and these other nonreflective items, Q4 underlying consolidated margins were up over 150 basis points from the prior year.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率持續擴大，第四季利潤率達到 30.2%，創歷史第四季最高利潤率。經過調整後，加拿大分部的 EBITDA 利潤率上升了 175 個基點，而美國分部則下降了 10 個基點。不過，如果排除上一年颶風數量、收購和商品價格的影響，美國分部的利潤率則大幅上升。大宗商品價格持續拖累利潤率，市場價格較第三季進一步放緩了 10%。剔除大宗商品和其他非反映性項目的影響，第四季度基礎合併利潤率比上年同期增長超過 150 個基點。

The outperformance in Q4 resulted in full year adjusted EBITDA of $1.985 billion, Note that using the same FX rate on which our original guidance was given, the full year amount would have been approximately $2 billion, over $50 million better than the high end of our original guide despite the commodity and C&D volume headwinds.

第四季的優異表現使全年調整後 EBITDA 達到 19.85 億美元。值得注意的是，如果使用我們最初給出的相同匯率，全年金額約為 20 億美元，儘管面臨大宗商品和 C&D 貨運量的不利因素，仍比我們最初指導的上限高出 5000 多萬美元。

Adjusted free cash flow was $425 million for Q4 and $756 million for 2025, ahead of plan on account of the EBITDA outperformance as the other inputs are largely in line with expectations. Adjusted free cash flow conversion improved to 38%, inclusive of the impacts of headwinds from M&A and FX.

經調整後的第四季自由現金流為 4.25 億美元，2025 年為 7.56 億美元，高於計劃，這主要得益於 EBITDA 的超預期表現，而其他投入基本上符合預期。經調整後的自由現金流轉換率提高至 38%，其中包括併購和外匯波動帶來的不利影響。

During the fourth quarter, we completed the incremental M&A that we had previewed in Q3, setting us up for meaningful revenue rollover into 2026, consistent with the initial framework we provided. We also bought back over $200 million of our own shares during the quarter, bringing annual share repurchases total to $3 billion, inclusive of the approximately $4 billion we deployed into M&A and share repurchases, we ended the year with net leverage of 3.4 times. As Patrick said, the lowest year-end net leverage in our history. Excluding the $750 million of incremental share buybacks, year-end net leverage would have been 3.1 times.

第四季度，我們完成了在第三季預告的增量併購，為我們實現到 2026 年的實質收入成長奠定了基礎，這與我們最初提供的框架一致。本季我們也回購了價值超過 2 億美元的公司股票，使年度股票回購總額達到 30 億美元。加上我們投入併購和股票回購的約 40 億美元，我們年底的淨槓桿率為 3.4 倍。正如帕特里克所說，這是我們歷史上最低的年末淨槓桿率。如果排除 7.5 億美元的額外股票回購，年末淨槓桿率為 3.1 倍。

The strong finish to 2025, combined with our positive forward outlook, allows for 2026 guidance better than the initial framework we provided in Q3. To level set on the guide, when we previously provided our 2026 framework, we did so assuming an FX rate of 1.40, which was the FX rate at the time and coincidentally, the average rate for all of 2025. Consistent with our past practice, we are providing our actual 2026 guidance using the current FX rate of 1.36. Any changes to the FX rate will cause translational impacts to our reported results. Recall that every 1 point change in FX impacts revenue by approximately $35 million and adjusted EBITDA by approximately $11 million.

2025 年的強勁收官，加上我們積極的展望，使得 2026 年的業績指引比我們在第三季度提供的初步框架要好。為了與指南保持一致，我們先前提供的 2026 年框架假設匯率為 1.40，這是當時的匯率，巧合的是，也是 2025 年全年的平均匯率。與我們以往的做法一致，我們使用當前匯率 1.36 提供 2026 年的實際業績指引。匯率的任何變動都會對我們公佈的業績產生相應的影響。請注意，匯率每變動 1 點，就會對收入造成約 3,500 萬美元的影響，對調整後的 EBITDA 造成約 1,100 萬美元的影響。

2026 revenue is expected to be approximately $7 billion or $7.14 billion on a constant currency basis, an 8% increase over 2025. Pricing is expected to be in the mid-5s, driven by our base pricing programs and incremental contributions from EPR. The pricing plan includes modest progression in our ancillary surcharge programs and implementation acceleration in this area will be a source of upside.

2026預計營收約 70 億美元，以固定匯率計算約為 71.4 億美元，比 2025 年成長 8%。預計定價將在 5 倍左右，主要受我們的基本定價方案和 EPR 的增量貢獻的影響。定價方案包括對我們輔助附加費計畫的適度推進，而該領域的實施加速將成為成長的來源。

Q4 commodity prices were down 33% year-over-year and today's prices are approximately 20% less than the average price in 2025. Based on these current price levels, commodity and fuel prices are expected to create a 50 basis point headwind to revenue growth in 2026. Any improvement to commodity prices throughout the year will be additive to our results.

第四季大宗商品價格年減 33%，目前的價格比 2025 年的平均價格低約 20%。根據目前的價格水平，預計 2026 年大宗商品和燃料價格將對收入成長造成 50 個基點的不利影響。年內大宗商品價格的任何上漲都將對我們的業績起到積極作用。

Volumes are expected to be positive 25 basis points to 50 basis points. There are a couple of more sizable impacts included in this number, namely around hurricane volumes in Q1, EPR transition and tangential residential contracts. Excluding these headwinds, underlying volumes are expected to grow closer to 100 basis points. M&A is expected to add 250 basis points of revenue growth and using an FX rate of 1.36 creates a 210 basis point headwind.

預計成交量將上漲 25 至 50 個基點。這個數字中包含了一些更重要的影響，即第一季的颶風數量、EPR 過渡和相關的住宅合約。排除這些不利因素，預計基本成交量將接近 100 個基點。預計併購將帶來 250 個基點的營收成長，而採用 1.36 的匯率將造成 210 個基點的不利影響。

Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is expected to be $2.14 billion or $2.185 billion on a constant currency basis, an increase of 10%. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to expand by an industry-leading 60 basis points, overcoming the headwinds from lower commodity prices and FX rates. The implied 30.6% margin for 2026 reflects an over 500 basis point expansion of margins over the 4-year period since 2022.

預計 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 為 21.4 億美元，以固定匯率計算為 21.85 億美元，成長 10%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計將成長 60 個基點，在業界處於領先地位，從而克服大宗商品價格和匯率走低帶來的不利影響。2026 年隱含的 30.6% 利潤率反映出自 2022 年以來的 4 年期間利潤率擴大了 500 多個基點。

Adjusted free cash flow increases to $835 million or $860 million on a constant currency basis, an increase of 14%. The 2026 guide includes cash taxes more than what was previously expected as the benefit of ITCs associated with RNG projects have shifted into 2027. If not for this change, adjusted free cash flow growth would have been closer to 20% on a constant currency basis.

經調整後的自由現金流增加至 8.35 億美元，以固定匯率計算為 8.6 億美元，成長 14%。2026 年的指導方針中包含的現金稅比之前預期的要多，因為與 RNG 項目相關的 ITC 的優惠已轉移到 2027 年。如果不是因為這項變化，以固定匯率計算，調整後的自由現金流成長率將接近 20%。

Included in the adjusted free cash flow guide is net CapEx of approximately $800 million, cash interest of $395 million and other items of $110 million. Excluded from adjusted free cash flow is approximately $175 million of incremental growth of CapEx, approximately 50% of the amount deployed in 2025, consistent with previous expectations. Adjusted free cash flow conversion as a percentage of adjusted EBITDA --

調整後的自由現金流指南中包含約 8 億美元的淨資本支出、3.95 億美元的現金利息和其他 1.1 億美元的項目。調整後的自由現金流不包括約 1.75 億美元的資本支出增量，約佔 2025 年投入金額的 50%，與先前的預期一致。調整後自由現金流轉換率佔調整後 EBITDA 的百分比--

One moment, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，請稍等。

One moment, ladies and gentlemen. I'll try to get our speakers reconnected.

女士們先生們，請稍等。我會嘗試重新連接我們的音箱。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

Pardon the interruption. We now have our speakers back on, and we will now begin the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions)

打擾一下，不好意思。現在我們的揚聲器已經重新連接，接下來我們將開始問答環節。（操作說明）

Patrick Brown, Raymond James.

Patrick Brown，Raymond James。

Patrick, I appreciate the guidance -- I appreciate the guidance of low 3s on the leverage. But one, does that assume -- does that assume no incremental M&A and buyback? Is that right? And then I think you mentioned last quarter that '26 could be an outsized M&A year. And I get that you're very active in the back half of '25, but is that still your base case as we sit here today?

派崔克，我感謝你的指導－我感謝你關於槓桿率低點3的指導。但是，這是否意味著——這是否意味著不會有增量併購和回購？是這樣嗎？然後，我想你上個季度也提到過，2026年可能是併購交易異常活躍的一年。我知道你在 2025 年下半年非常活躍，但就目前而言，這仍然是你的基本計劃嗎？

Yes. I think to be crystal clear on the leverage point, we are committed to leverage, as we said, in the low- to mid-3s. I think Luke made the point that absent any M&A, you end the year close to 3 turns, obviously, doing incremental M&A and buybacks would increase that number. But we are definitely committed to exiting 2026 at sort of low to mid-3s. Could there be a quarter where there's 25 basis points to 40 basis points of leverage move around in a quarter? Sure. But we end the year exiting low-3s to mid-3s.

是的。我認為，為了更清楚地說明槓桿點，我們承諾，正如我們所說，槓桿率將維持在 3 倍左右。我認為盧克的觀點是，如果沒有併購，一年下來你的股票週轉次數將接近 3 次；顯然，進行逐步的併購和股票回購將會增加這個數字。但我們絕對致力於在 2026 年底將利率維持在 3% 左右。是否有可能出現一個季度槓桿率波動幅度在 25 到 40 個基點之間的情況？當然。但我們最終以3分出頭到3分中段的水平結束了這一年。

Okay. Perfect. Exactly what I was looking for. Okay. And then, Luke, if I just try to do the EBITDA bridge, I feel like there are a few kind of key things to think about. So one, it seems like you have something like $30 million of M&A rollover benefit. Again, this is on EBITDA.

好的。完美的。正是我想要的。好的。然後，盧克，如果我嘗試做 EBITDA 橋樑分析，我覺得有一些關鍵的事情需要考慮。所以，第一，你似乎有大約 3000 萬美元的併購結轉收益。再次強調，這是基於 EBITDA 計算的。

Two, on my math, at least, you maybe have $40 million of EPR in RNG. Three, you have about a $45 million drag from FX. But if I took all of those, it feels like organic EBITDA is up maybe low to mid-single digits. And I realize that commodities and a few things are in there. But is that conceptually close because it feels doable.

第二，至少以我的計算，你可能在 RNG 中擁有價值 4000 萬美元的 EPR。第三，FX 拖累了你大約 4500 萬美元。但如果我把所有這些因素都考慮進去，感覺有機 EBITDA 的成長可能只有個位數低到中段。我意識到裡麵包含一些商品和其他一些東西。但這在概念上是否接近呢？因為它感覺可行。

Yes, Tyler, it's a great way of breaking it down, and thank you for doing my role for me. I think you're directionally right, but you seem to be taking just the good guys and not factoring in the bad guys, right? So a couple of things. Commodities going against you, right? And so, that is a pure sort of EBITDA hit that you will sort of have. In that margin bridge we have, recall, Q1 '25, we enjoyed storm volumes in the Southeast associated with the hurricane, very high margin contribution that you're not getting the benefit of that. So that's sort of distorting that bridge a little bit.

是的，泰勒，這是一個很好的分析方法，謝謝你幫我完成了我的工作。我認為你的方向是對的，但你似乎只考慮了好人，而沒有考慮壞人，對嗎？有兩件事。大宗商品價格對你不利，對吧？因此，這將對 EBITDA 造成直接影響。回想一下，在那個利潤橋樑中，2025 年第一季度，我們享受了與颶風相關的東南部風暴量，利潤貢獻非常高，但你卻沒有從中受益。所以這多少有點扭曲了那座橋。

And then on the EPR, while $40 million, I think, was the right way of thinking about it at the beginning of '25 with the outperformance that '25 had, I think that number comes in a little inside on the '26 year-over-year comp. So if you normalize those, then I think you should get to a base business underlying organic EBITDA at the sort of mid- to high-single digits. And as you said, we're feeling confident that, that's something that can be achieved.

至於EPR，雖然我認為在2025年初考慮到2025年的優異表現，4000萬美元是一個正確的想法，但我認為這個數字在2026年的同比比較中略有下降。所以，如果將這些因素標準化，我認為你應該能得到一個以有機 EBITDA 為基礎的業務基礎，達到個位數中高水準。正如你所說，我們有信心，這是可以實現的。

Sabahat Khan, RBC.

薩巴哈特·汗，RBC。

Just, I guess, just following up on the commentary around EPR. Can you just maybe give us a little bit more color on the incremental growth CapEx investments that you're sort of calling out here? How does that sort of flow in through the course of the year? And just, I guess, in terms of the RNG side and the EPR side, it sounds like the contribution is still there. But just maybe how does that ramp for '26 and maybe into '27?

我只是想就EPR相關的評論做一些補充說明。您能否再詳細解釋一下您在這裡提到的增量成長資本支出投資？這種趨勢是如何貫穿全年的呢？而且，就 RNG 和 EPR 而言，聽起來它們仍然發揮作用。但這種趨勢在 2026 年甚至 2027 年會如何發展呢？

Yes. Saba, great question. Luke speaking here. The $175 million is very front-end loaded. The expectation -- just so you know what's really coming on EPR this year is the collection side of the contracts and the majority of that is actually for the payment of said trucks. So I think we're expecting sort of about $100 million to $120 million of that in Q1 and then sort of trickles in through the balance of the year.

是的。薩巴，問得好。盧克在這裡說話。這1.75億美元的投資主要集中在前期。需要說明的是，今年EPR的真正重點是合約的收款部分，其中大部分實際上是用於支付上述卡車的款項。所以我認為我們預計第一季會有大約 1 億至 1.2 億美元的收入，然後剩下的收入會在今年剩餘的時間裡陸續到位。

As we had alluded, RNG incremental contribution this year is more muted as projects have shifted to '27. So the RNG contribution in the current plan is pretty flat in terms of dollars for '25. You have slightly higher levels of production at a slightly lower RIN price. And then the expectation is it's sort of into '27 and '28 when you get the ramp of the -- tail of the RNG projects coming online.

正如我們之前提到的，由於專案已轉移到 '27'，今年 RNG 的增量貢獻較為微弱。因此，就 2025 年的美元貢獻而言，目前計劃中的 RNG 貢獻相當平穩。您的產量略高，但 RIN 價格略低。然後預計到 2027 年和 2028 年，RNG 專案的尾部就會開始上線。

Growth spend in '27, the equivalent of that number, I think, steps down significantly again from where we are today as EPR will largely be completed and the RNG tail is relatively small. So we'll advise on '27 as we get closer to it, but the expectation today is it's again, a meaningful step down from this year.

我認為，2027 年的成長支出（相當於這個數字）將比我們今天的情況大幅下降，因為 EPR 將基本完成，而 RNG 的尾部相對較小。所以，隨著 2027 年的臨近，我們會給出具體建議，但目前的預期是，它又將比今年大幅下滑。

Okay. Great. And then just on the volume portion, it looks like you're guiding to modestly positive volumes. Can you maybe just break that out a little bit across some of the puts and takes? Any shedding left in that? And in addition, sort of what are you seeing across some of the more cyclical end markets? Is the situation may be somewhat better than '25? If you can just kind of break out the volume piece a little bit.

好的。偉大的。然後就成交量部分而言，看起來你們正在引導成交量略微向正增長。您能否稍微詳細地解釋一下一些買入和賣出的情況？還有掉毛嗎？此外，您在一些週期性較強的終端市場中觀察到了什麼情況？情況可能比 2025 年略好？如果你能稍微調整一下音量部分就好了。

Yes. I think we're giving the guide, Saba, based on today's macro conditions, which continues to be soft on the sort of C&D or industrial end. Now I think there are some green shoots out there that may suggest there's opportunity above that. And certainly, the benefit of that opportunity would be additive to the guide. If you think about the year for '25, Q1 started a little bit sort of stronger before some of the uncertainty was -- entered the macro environment.

是的。我認為我們給出的薩巴指南是基於今天的宏觀經濟形勢，而宏觀經濟形勢在建築和開發或工業領域仍然疲軟。現在我認為出現了一些積極的跡象，這可能表明上方存在機會。當然，獲得這樣的機會對指南來說也是一件好事。如果你回顧 2025 年，第一季開局稍微強勁一些，之後一些不確定因素才進入宏觀環境。

And therefore, I think, Q1 is a tougher comp. So we're expecting a negative volume number in Q1, and then that moderates as you start lapping the sort of tougher quarters that were sort of experienced in the back half of this year.

因此，我認為，Q1 的競爭更加激烈。因此，我們預計第一季銷售量將為負值，然後隨著今年下半年經歷的那些較為艱難的季度逐漸過去，銷量將會有所回落。

We do have the benefit of EPR coming in and contributing, and that is part of it. And then also, as Patrick alluded to, we still take a lot of pride in our market selection. And what I mean by that is a concentration of our revenues in the faster-growing South and Southeast markets where notwithstanding a perhaps more uncertain macro, you still do have volumetric growth by virtue of people moving and new business formation.

我們確實受益於EPR的引入和貢獻，這是其中的一部分。而且，正如帕特里克所暗示的那樣，我們仍然對我們的市場選擇感到非常自豪。我的意思是，我們的收入集中在成長較快的南部和東南部市場，儘管宏觀經濟狀況可能更加不確定，但由於人口流動和新企業的成立，這些市場仍然實現了銷售成長。

So we're feeling good with the setup. I think there's multiple avenues of upside above what we have in here, but we're very pleased to be able to sort of report a year of positive volume. I think the industry as a whole is probably slightly negative and to be able to reiterate that sort of positive outlook going into '26 as well.

我們對目前的配置感覺不錯。我認為除了我們目前所取得的成就之外，還有多種上漲空間，但我們很高興能夠報告今年的成交量為正。我認為整個產業可能略顯悲觀，但我們希望在進入 2026 年時也能維持這種正面的展望。

And just maybe just a quick one, if I can sneak it in there. Just on the capital allocation side, obviously, a very big year on buybacks in '25. It sounds like the M&A pipeline is reasonably good. How do you guys sort of balance the two in terms of what seems more attractive for your analysis or just how you view it?

如果可以的話，也許可以快速補充一下。顯然，就資本配置而言，2025 年是回購規模非常大的一年。聽起來併購交易管道相當暢通。你們是如何平衡這兩者，選擇哪種方式對你們的分析更有吸引力，或者只是你們自己的看法？

Yes. I mean, obviously, with the sell-off in the sector and sort of where we are. We continue to believe the stock is materially undervalued. That being said, we need to balance that. That could correct itself very quickly and our expectation is that it will in time.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，考慮到該行業的拋售以及我們目前的處境。我們仍然認為該股票被嚴重低估。話雖如此，我們還是需要權衡利弊。這種情況可能很快就會得到糾正，我們預計這種情況最終會得到糾正。

So we also have to plan for the future in some of these opportunities that are in front of us. And as we continue to work through the opportunities, we'll sort of outweigh and weigh against one another, but what we think the right thing to do is. But just know that my 30 million shares are working beside every one of yours. So I'm going to do what's right for what I believe sort of the long-term value creation for the business will be.

所以，我們也必須為擺在我們面前的一些機會做好未來的規劃。隨著我們繼續探討各種機會，我們會權衡利弊，但我們認為正確的做法是：但你要知道，我的3000萬股股票與你們的每一股股票都在共同發揮作用。所以，我會做我認為對公司長期價值創造最有利的事。

But last year, it was clearly obvious in the back half of the year that it was prudent to spend that incremental $750 million on share buybacks just given where the stock was trading. But that being said, we have a great pipeline as well with good opportunities in markets where we're already operating, and we'll continue looking at both and weighing them as the opportunities continue to present themselves.

但去年下半年，很明顯，鑑於股票的交易價格，將額外的 7.5 億美元用於股票回購是明智之舉。但話雖如此，我們也擁有良好的專案儲備，在我們已經經營的市場中也存在著不錯的機會，我們將繼續關注兩者，並在機會不斷出現時權衡利弊。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

Kevin Chiang，加拿大帝國商業銀行。

I apologize if I missed this. Luke, you mentioned you kind of saw a sequential improvement in pricing as you kind of got through 2025 here. Just wondering how we should think about the cadence of pricing in '26 as you kind of average out to the mid-5s that's in your guidance there?

如果我錯過了這則訊息，我深表歉意。盧克，你提到隨著時間推移，到 2025 年，你看到價格出現了逐步改善的趨勢。我想知道我們應該如何看待 2026 年的定價節奏，因為你們的指導價大致在 5 年左右？

Yes. Kevin, great question. With the sequential increase that you had coming to the back half of '25, you end up with a stronger start in absolute numbers in Q1 that then sort of tapers down. So where we're sitting is that Q1 is a sort of mid-6 or better number. And then that ratably kind of steps down to a kind of 5 type number by the end of the year.

是的。凱文，問得好。由於 2025 年下半年的連續成長，第一季的絕對數量出現了強勁的開局，然後逐漸下降。所以目前來看，第一季的業績大概在6%左右或更好。然後到年底，這個數字會逐漸下降到 5 左右。

So one of the benefits that we have in a year of accelerated pricing realized the year before is the degree of visibility you have into that pricing cadence. I mean, where we sit today, we probably already have 80% of 2026's pricing effectively already in hand just by virtue of how the sort of math plays out. So feeling really good on the price number, could be a source of upside as we go, but it really will be starting high in Q1 and then tapering down by Q4.

因此，在前一年實施加速定價的一年裡，我們獲得的一大好處是，您可以更清楚地了解定價節奏。我的意思是，就我們目前的情況來看，僅根據數學計算的結果，我們可能已經有效地掌握了 2026 年 80% 的價格。所以，我對價格數據感覺非常好，這可能是未來上漲的動力，但實際上第一季會高開低走，到第四季就會逐漸回落。

That's helpful. Maybe just turning to some of your, I guess, minority investments, GIP and Environmental Services. Just wondering how those performed in '25? And what was still kind of a soft, I'll call it, industrial economy, just -- did those businesses exhibit the type of resiliency you saw within your Solid Waste business? Did you kind of end out the year the way you anticipated 12 months ago? Just any color you can provide there would be helpful.

那很有幫助。或許可以考慮一下你們的一些少數股權投資，像是 GIP 和環境服務公司。想知道這些產品在 2025 年的表現如何？而當時的工業經濟仍然比較軟弱，我姑且稱之為工業經濟──這些企業是否​​展現了你在固體廢棄物處理業務中看到的那種韌性？你是否按照12個月前的預期結束了這一年？只要你能提供任何顏色資訊就行。

Yes. I think if you look at the ES business, I mean, you're forecasting sort of $525 million of EBITDA for '25 going into the year when there was a lot of optimism around a new President, et cetera. I think with the softness in the industrial economy, et cetera, that business largely just finished just north of $500-ish million. So I mean, it was modestly off from our plan, but not materially off from the plan. And we had pretty robust plans for that business from a sort of a growth perspective.

是的。我認為，如果你看看ES的業務，我的意思是，你預測2025年的EBITDA約為5.25億美元，而當時人們對新總裁等有很多樂觀情緒。我認為，由於工業經濟疲軟等等原因，這項業務的最終成交額僅略高於 5 億美元左右。我的意思是，雖然和我們的計劃略有偏差，但並沒有實質的偏差。從成長的角度來看，我們對這項業務制定了相當穩健的計劃。

And on the GIP side, again, it's an industrial business, yes, but by and large, 75% to 80% of that work is government contracts and largely based around transportation sector. So that hasn't gone away. So that business basically performed to plan. So exiting -- coming into this year, somewhere in the $300-ish million range of EBITDA like we had discussed, and that's sort of still well in hand.

至於 GIP 這方面，它雖然是一家工業企業，但總的來說，75% 到 80% 的工作都是政府合同，而且主要集中在交通運輸領域。所以這個問題依然存在。所以，這項業務基本上是按計劃進行。令人振奮的是——今年年初，EBITDA 預計在 3 億美元左右，正如我們之前討論的那樣，而且目前一切進展順利。

If you factor that in, even those two businesses at cost, right, there's -- from our perspective, at cost, there's $5 to $6 a share of value there. Why we think about opportunistic share buybacks because our numbers on 2026 puts GFL trading at sort of like in the 12.5 times range on 2026 numbers when you factor in the equity value that sits in those two businesses that aren't included in our numbers. And I think that's why we continue to think share buybacks are very attractive at these levels.

如果把這一點考慮進去，即使以成本計算，從我們的角度來看，以成本計算，每股價值也只有 5 到 6 美元。我們之所以考慮機會性股票回購，是因為根據我們對 2026 年的預測，如果將我們預測中未包含的兩家企業的股權價值考慮在內，GFL 的交易價格將達到 2026 年預測值的 12.5 倍左右。我認為這就是為什麼我們仍然認為在目前的價位上進行股票回購非常有吸引力的原因。

Bryan Burgmeier, Citi.

Bryan Burgmeier，花旗銀行。

Sorry if I missed this in the prepared remarks. Did GFL provide 1Q guidance, like I think you did on the 4Q call last year? Maybe I missed it or maybe we blame the cooperator or maybe you're shifting strategy a tiny bit.

如果我事先準備好的發言稿中遺漏了這一點，請見諒。GFL是否像你們去年在第四季財報電話會議上那樣，提供了第一季業績指引？也許是我錯過了什麼，也許我們應該責怪合作者，也許你們的策略稍微改變了一點。

Yes. Bryan, it's Luke. Thanks for the question. I think we had some technical difficulties when we were giving the very end of the call and maybe that sort of cut out. But either way, I'll just reiterate what the prepared remarks was.

是的。布萊恩，我是盧克。謝謝你的提問。我想我們在通話即將結束時遇到了一些技術問題，也許就是這個問題導致了通話中斷。但無論如何，我還是會重申準備好的發言稿。

And what I said was that looking specifically at Q1, we expect revenue of $1.6 billion to $1.625 billion at approximately 28.8% margin, which implies 150 basis points expansion over the prior year. Q1 adjusted free cash flow is expected to be negative $45 million, which is less than the prior year, but solely on account of the timing of working capital and CapEx payments.

我之前說過，具體來看第一季度，我們預計營收為 16 億美元至 16.25 億美元，利潤率約為 28.8%，這意味著比上年增長 150 個基點。第一季調整後自由現金流預計為負 4,500 萬美元，低於去年同期水平，但這僅是由於營運資金和資本支出支付的時間安排所致。

And then just one more question for me. Just maybe as RNG production, I know these projects have been pushed out, but just as we are gradually kind of ramping up production, are you finding that your costs are sort of roughly in line with what your initial expectations were from the Investor Day last year for ongoing production costs, start-up costs? Just any kind of broader comments there.

最後，我還有一個問題。也許就像 RNG 生產一樣，我知道這些項目已經被推遲了，但正如我們正在逐步提高產量一樣，您是否發現您的成本與您去年投資者日對持續生產成本和啟動成本的最初預期大致一致？任何更廣泛的評論都可以。

Yes. No material change in the actual costs. I think, obviously, we're taking a very careful look at building out the larger sites before we're building out some of the smaller ones. So I think what we've articulated in the Investor Day presentation, we said about $175 million of RNG coming on. Our perspective is just depending on where some of these regulations and volume requirements come in that we're going to sort of think about that number sort of being potentially sort of in the $125 million to $150 million range. That being said, EPR is outperforming. So those two numbers as a whole are going to be on plan to our Investor Day presentation.

是的。實際成本沒有實質變化。顯然，我們認為在建造一些較小的站點之前，我們會非常謹慎地考慮建造較大的站點。所以我認為我們在投資者日演講中闡述的內容，我們提到了大約 1.75 億美元的 RNG 計畫即將啟動。我們的看法是，這取決於一些法規和產量要求的具體情況，我們認為這個數字可能會在 1.25 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間。也就是說，EPR表現優異。所以這兩個數字整體上將符合我們投資者日演示的計劃。

And Bryan, just to add to what Patrick said, I think the operating costs once the plants are up and running are proving to be very much in line with the pro formas, which included an appropriate degree of conservatism to account for that. What we have noticed though is some of the start-up has slipped a little bit to the right. So your ramp to achieve that sort of full run rate profitability has arguably been a quarter or so longer than anticipated. But all the projects that we have up and running are performing, in fact, at or above what those sort of underwritten sort of cost profiles were.

布萊恩，我補充一下帕特里克所說的，我認為工廠投產後的營運成本與預測值非常吻合，預測值中已經包含了適當的保守程度來解釋這一點。不過我們注意到，有些新創企業的發展方向稍微向右偏移了。因此，要達到那種全面獲利水平，你的成長速度可能比預期慢了一個季度左右。但實際上，我們所有正在運行的項目都達到了或超過了當初承保的成本預期。

So I think it's more of the sort of timing issue of shifting to the right. And then Patrick said, just ensuring that the overall envelope that we originally identified remains the appropriate level. But net-net, we had presented EPR and RNG as a combined step in that bridge, and we think that combined step remains intact, just may be a reallocation between the two components therein.

所以我認為這更多的是一個向右移動的時機問題。然後帕特里克說，只是確保我們最初確定的整體範圍保持在適當的水平。但總而言之，我們把 EPR 和 RNG 作為該橋樑中的一個組合步驟提出，我們認為這個組合步驟仍然完好無損，只是其中的兩個組件之間可能進行了重新分配。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗·羅密歐，威廉·布萊爾。

First one I had was kind of a follow-up on EPR. I guess in terms of some of the provinces that maybe aren't as far along on EPR, how much at this point is still in that kind of future opportunity bucket? I guess, are you still seeing incremental contract awards as a potential upside driver for this year and beyond? And maybe you could talk about competition for any new contracts that are still out there if it's gotten tougher to win any of those deals?

我遇到的第一個問題算是 EPR 的後續研究。我想，對於一些在EPR方面進展較慢的省份來說，目前還有多少機會可以掌握？我想，您是否仍然認為新增合約數量是今年及未來潛在的成長動力？如果現在贏得新合約變得更加困難，或許你可以談談競爭情況？

Yes. I would say we're largely through. I think there are some collection contracts still to be let over the next couple of years, but that's -- we would put that in the normal course bucket with normal resi wins. But anything material is we are largely through that now. Alberta was the last province to basically get finalized, and we ended up splitting the processing for the province of Alberta with Waste Management.

是的。我認為我們基本上已經結束了。我認為未來幾年還會有一些房產交易合約要簽訂，但這——我們會把它歸類在正常交易的範疇，就像正常的房產交易一樣。但任何實質的事情，我們現在基本上都已經過去了。阿爾伯塔省是最後一個基本上完成處理的省份，最後我們與廢棄物管理公司共同承擔了阿爾伯塔省的處理工作。

So Waste Management ourselves have sort of half of the province each. And that was the large -- that was really the last one that will be let in Canada. So from an opportunity perspective, I think by the end of 2027, you'll have all EPR dollars flowing through the P&L.

所以，我們這些廢棄物管理公司各自佔據了全省大約一半的區域。那是加拿大最後一個大型計畫。因此，從機會的角度來看，我認為到 2027 年底，所有 EPR 資金都將流入損益表。

Okay. Thanks, Patrick. That's helpful. And then maybe just on your M&A pipeline and kind of, I guess, the pipeline plus what you bought maybe within the last quarter or so, if you could just provide maybe some color on regional or asset perspective, kind of where you saw attractive opportunities, what do you see in the near term in terms of your pipeline there?

好的。謝謝你，派崔克。那很有幫助。然後，關於您的併購計劃，以及您在最近一個季度左右收購的項目，您能否從區域或資產角度提供一些信息，說明您認為哪些地方有吸引力的機會？您認為近期在這些領域的併購計畫會如何發展？

Yes. I mean I think we said at the end of Q4, people were questioning whether or not we would actually deploy -- if we'd actually deploy the amount of capital that we had in our sort of initial guidance that we'd have been articulating through the year, just given the slow start to the year and the fact that we are focused on the divestiture and recapitalization of ES and GIP.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們在第四季度末說過，人們質疑我們是否真的會部署——是否真的會部署我們在年初指導意見中提到的那筆資金，鑑於今年開局緩慢，以及我們專注於ES和GIP的剝離和資本重組。

We basically deployed close to $1 billion that we said we would. I think when you look at 2026, as we said on Q4, pipeline is very healthy, a lot of good opportunities, obviously, still in diligence on a bunch. But again, focused on businesses in markets where we already have existing infrastructure, creating very good synergy opportunities, which will sort of yield higher returns on invested capital versus moving outside and acquiring businesses outside of the existing platform.

我們基本上兌現了先前承諾的近10億美元投入。我認為，展望 2026 年，正如我們在第四季度所說，專案儲備非常充足，有很多很好的機會，當然，我們仍在對許多專案進行盡職調查。但再次強調，我們專注於那些我們已經擁有現有基礎設施的市場中的企業，創造非常好的協同效應機會，這將比向外擴張並收購現有平台之外的企業帶來更高的投資回報率。

We're obviously extremely happy with the post-collection network we have throughout the 10 provinces in Canada and 25 states in the US. So we're going to continue just driving incremental opportunities on the backs of those facilities. And that's what we're going to be focused on for '26.

我們顯然對我們在加拿大 10 個省和美國 25 個州建立的後續回收網絡感到非常滿意。因此，我們將繼續利用這些設施，逐步創造更多機會。這就是我們2026年要重點關注的事情。

But again, it's going to be -- as we communicated in the $750 million to $1 billion. As we said in Q4, we think this year could be even higher than that. And assuming we continue to make our progress due diligence on some of these assets, I think we'll have a pretty good update for everybody when we report Q1.

但正如我們之前溝通的那樣，金額將會是 7.5 億美元到 10 億美元。正如我們在第四季所說，我們認為今年的數據可能會更高。假設我們繼續推進對其中一些資產的盡職調查工作，我認為當我們發布第一季業績報告時，我們會為大家帶來相當不錯的最新消息。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

科納克·古普塔，加拿大豐業銀行。

Just on the M&A follow-up. In terms of the asset quality that you're finding these days in the marketplace, I mean, a big chunk of the market has already been consolidated, right? And I mean, obviously, there's still a ton of opportunities for you guys, especially given you're smaller than the rest of the three. But any noticeable differences you're seeing in terms of quality of assets that are coming open to you?

僅就併購後續事宜進行報告。就目前市場上的資產品質而言，我的意思是，市場很大一部分已經被整合了，對吧？我的意思是，很顯然，你們仍然有很多機會，特別是考慮到你們的規模比其他三家都小。但是，就你所能看到的資產品質而言，你有沒有發現任何明顯的差異？

No. I mean I think it's obviously year-by-year, you can never predict when a specific asset is going to come to market. But what we know for certain is that the sellers of these businesses aren't getting any younger. And as people start thinking about succession and liquidity, that's creating opportunity.

不。我的意思是，這顯然要逐年來看，你永遠無法預測某個特定資產何時會進入市場。但我們確切知道的是，這些企業的賣家年紀都不小了。當人們開始考慮繼任和流動性問題時，這就創造了機會。

And I mean, if you think about the Canadian market, again, basically Waste Management, Waste Connections and ourselves represent, call it, 40-ish percent of the market. So 60% of the market continues to be white space and not consolidated. And you think about the US, about 50% of the market is consolidated by the majors, and that still creates a very good opportunity for all of us to continue acquiring businesses in the markets where we see opportunities for each of our respective businesses.

我的意思是，如果你想想加拿大市場，基本上 Waste Management、Waste Connections 和我們自己就佔據了約 40% 的市佔率。因此，60% 的市場仍然是空白領域，尚未被整合。再看看美國，大約 50% 的市場份額被幾家大型企業壟斷，但這仍然為我們所有人創造了非常好的機會，讓我們能夠在各自認為有發展機會的市場中繼續收購企業。

But the quality of the assets continues to be very high. The quality of the assets that we're looking at within the existing pipeline are very good. And again, we think there'll be great contributors to sort of overall book and will yield very good return on invested capital on the backs of our existing infrastructure. So we're feeling very good about where we sit today, and we're feeling very good about 2026 and beyond in that respect.

但資產品質依然非常高。我們正在考察的現有項目儲備中的資產品質非常好。我們再次認為，這將為整體書籍銷售做出巨大貢獻，並藉助我們現有的基礎設施，帶來非常好的投資回報。所以，我們對目前的處境感到非常滿意，而且從這個角度來看，我們對 2026 年及以後的發展也感到非常滿意。

And Konark, just to add to Patrick's commentary, you have to remember, I mean, the focus of us on tuck-in acquisitions into our existing platform, we can have a scenario whereby we have a great market and a great asset base. And there's a competitor that doesn't necessarily have a gold star asset. But in our hands, with cost takeout opportunities and other synergy, you can turn that into a very high-quality asset.

Konark，我還要補充 Patrick 的評論，你要記住，我的意思是，我們專注於將收購融入我們現有的平台，這樣我們就能擁有一個龐大的市場和龐大的資產基礎。還有一個競爭對手，它未必擁有明星資產。但在我們手中，透過降低成本和其他協同效應，你可以將其轉化為非常高品質的資產。

So what's nice about where we're at in our journey is the ability to densify and tuck in some of our best-in-class markets and thereby take what is perhaps a suboptimal little sort of tuck-in on its own, but turn that into something accretive in our hands. And that's really what we're focusing on what can this business or asset contribute in our hands.

所以，我們目前所處階段的優勢在於，我們能夠將一些一流的市場進行密集化和整合，從而將原本可能不太理想的整合，轉化為我們手中的增值力量。而這正是我們真正關注的重點：這項業務或資產在我們手中能夠做出什麼貢獻。

And if I can follow up, I think there's some news around the Toronto recycling contract changes that have happened. I think there's a change of supplier or your third-party partner there. Any sense in terms of what potential changes might be required on your side to deliver on the contract into --

如果我能跟進一下，我認為多倫多回收合約的變更方面有一些消息。我認為你們的供應商或第三方合作夥伴可能發生了變更。您認為為了履行合同，您這邊可能需要做出哪些潛在改變？--

Sorry, in terms of -- yes, in terms of EPR, I mean, we obviously are doing the exact same work we did before, albeit with different service providers, meaning our customer used to be the city of Toronto and now our customer is circular materials. That being said, there's been no real change. Yes, there's a little bit of political fallout in the city of Toronto. The fact that we ended up doing -- taking on two more districts than we had before, and there was a loss of some union jobs, I think that led to some media attention by a couple of, I would say, the more left leaning papers.

抱歉，就——是的，就EPR而言，我的意思是，我們顯然在做和以前完全相同的工作，儘管服務提供者不同，這意味著我們以前的客戶是多倫多市，而現在我們的客戶是循環材料公司。也就是說，實際上並沒有什麼改變。是的，多倫多市出現了一些政治餘波。我們最終接管了比以前多兩個選區的事實，以及一些工會成員的離職，我認為這引起了一些媒體的關注，尤其是一些比較左傾的報紙。

That being said, we started collection in Ontario for over 1 million homes and collection success was better than 99.3% in the first month of a very large startup. So overall, very successful. Province continues to be very happy. Ultimately, there was a change in collection days in some of the city of Toronto, which certain residents didn't like or enjoy, but I think we're largely through that and now into our second month, and I think the noise is largely subsided.

也就是說，我們在安大略省開始為超過 100 萬戶家庭進行催收，在如此大規模的啟動中，第一個月的催收成功率就超過了 99.3%。總體而言，非常成功。該省人民依然非常高興。最終，多倫多市部分地區的垃圾收集日發生了變化，一些居民對此並不喜歡或不滿意，但我認為我們已經基本度過了這段時期，現在已經進入第二個月，我認為噪音也基本上消失了。

William Grippin, Barclays.

威廉·格里平，巴克萊銀行。

Great. Most of my questions have already been answered, but just wanted to come back to the update you gave around the GIP and ES. I appreciate the color there on the performance. I guess just do you have any updated thoughts on maybe providing some incremental disclosure around those businesses going forward in the quarterly releases just to kind of help investors and analysts kind of track the performance of those businesses.

偉大的。我的大部分問題都已經得到了解答，但我還是想再問您之前關於 GIP 和 ES 的更新情況。我欣賞演出中展現出的色彩。我想問的是，您是否對在未來的季度財報中增加一些關於這些業務的資訊揭露，以幫助投資者和分析師追蹤這些業務的業績，有任何最新的想法？

Yes, Will, it's Luke. It's a great question and something I know we've talked about in person. In light of the fact that both of those recapitalization or carve-out just happened, we all have this very fresh mark. So the cost basis, as Patrick referenced, roughly close to $3 billion across the 2 assets today is pretty sort of fresh. So we didn't include something at this.

是的，威爾，我是路克。這是一個很好的問題，我知道我們之前也曾當面討論過這個問題。鑑於這兩項資本重組或分拆都剛剛發生，我們都留下了非常清晰的印記。因此，正如帕特里克所提到的，目前這兩項資產的成本基礎大致接近 30 億美元，而且相當新。所以，我們這次沒有包含某些內容。

But absolutely, as we go forward, we're going to come up with an appropriate level of disclosure such that you guys can have a handle on how those businesses are doing, what the sort of debt level of them are and what our sort of equity interest is. So you'll have an ability to calculate that $6 per share math that Patrick was doing.

但毫無疑問，隨著我們不斷推進，我們將制定適當的資訊揭露方案，以便大家能夠了解這些企業的經營狀況、債務水準以及我們的股權比例。這樣你就能算出派崔克之前算出的每股 6 美元的數目了。

So we will do that. But as of today, we're just thinking, hey, you had $1.7 billion cost base in ES, roughly $1 billion in the GIP asset. And then I think we valued the option on ES at a couple of hundred million bucks. So just under $3 billion of value at cost across those 2 businesses today.

所以我們會這麼做。但就目前而言，我們只是在想，嘿，你在 ES 的成本基礎為 17 億美元，GIP 資產約為 10 億美元。然後，我認為我們對 ES 期權的估值在幾億美元左右。因此，這兩家公司目前的市值（以成本計算）略低於 30 億美元。

Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.

傑瑞·雷維奇，富國銀行。

I wanted to -- as we think about the -- Patrick, I wanted to ask, as we think about the free call profile of the business. So now that you've got a cleaner portfolio. How should we be thinking about CapEx to sales beyond '26. So the core business looks like it's about 11.5% CapEx to sales you have the high returns. Growth CapEx on top of it as a starting point for '27 and beyond, how would you counsel us to think about both growth CapEx opportunities as well as just normalized CapEx to sales versus local guide for '26?

我想——當我們思考——派崔克，我想問，當我們思考這項業務的免費通話概況時。現在你的投資組合更清楚了。我們該如何看待2026年以後的資本支出與銷售額之間的關係？所以核心業務看起來資本支出佔銷售額的 11.5% 左右，回報率很高。以 2027 年及以後的成長資本支出為起點，您會建議我們如何考慮 2026 年的成長資本支出機會以及與銷售額相比的正常化資本支出與當地指導值之間的關係？

Yes. Thanks, Jerry. It's a great question, and I know one that the industry is a wide way of focuses on. I think today, normal course CapEx, if I was underwriting a model, it's an 11% to 11.5% number. I think probably 11.5% today as we sort of just get through some tariffs, et cetera, and maybe that gravitates back down to that normal sort of 11% spend.

是的。謝謝你，傑瑞。這是一個很好的問題，我知道業內人士正在廣泛關注這個問題。我認為，在目前正常的資本支出水準下，如果我要對模型進行承銷，這個數字應該是 11% 到 11.5%。我認為今天可能會是 11.5%，因為我們正在處理一些關稅等問題，然後也許會回落到正常的 11% 的支出水平。

I would characterize that as the normal course, which is inclusive of maintenance and normal course growth. Obviously, in years where we're going to be delivering outsized growth, whether it's EPR or similar type of investments, there could be opportunity for spend above and beyond that, and we'll call that out as we have.

我會將其描述為正常過程，其中包括維護和正常成長。顯然，在那些我們將實現超額成長的年份，無論是 EPR 還是類似類型的投資，都可能存在超出預期支出的機會，我們會像以前一樣指出這一點。

Where we sit today, as I articulated to the other question, I think next year's growth spend is currently contemplated to step meaningfully down from this year's as really EPR is behind us and you just have the sort of tail end of building out the sort of RNG facilities. So the truth is, as we've said since our 2023 capital allocation framework, we've looked at the growth CapEx similar to M&A. And if we could find more opportunities like RNG and EPR, we would be very inclined to invest in based on the sort of returns profile. Where we sit today, we don't see anything else on block that is going to warrant that same carve-out as we've done for EPR and RNG.

正如我在另一個問題中闡述的那樣，就我們目前的情況而言，我認為明年的增長支出目前正在考慮大幅減少，因為EPR項目實際上已經結束，現在只剩下RNG設施建設的尾聲部分。所以事實是，正如我們自 2023 年資本配置框架以來一直所說的那樣，我們已經將成長資本支出視為與併購類似的支出。如果我們能找到更多像 RNG 和 EPR 這樣的機會，我們會非常傾向於根據收益情況進行投資。就我們目前的情況來看，我們沒有看到任何其他技術能夠像 EPR 和 RNG 一樣獲得相同的特殊待遇。

So we expect these to play off and then roll off, and we'll just be back to a singular CapEx number. But certainly should, by regulation or otherwise, we see opportunities as attractive as these we're going to go after those and we'll talk about the appropriate stratification or bifurcation of our CapEx at that time.

因此我們預期這些因素會相互抵消，然後逐漸消失，最終我們會回到單一的資本支出數字。但當然，無論是透過監管還是其他方式，如果我們看到像這樣有吸引力的機會，我們一定會抓住這些機會，屆時我們會討論資本支出的適當分層或分攤。

And separately, Patrick, can I ask you, given the strong M&A activity over the course of '25? Normally, we see you folks deliver really good synergies in year 2 of integration. Can you just talk about for some of the larger deals and how those assets are performing and whether we could see a notable tailwind '26 versus '25 as you integrate those assets?

另外，派崔克，鑑於 2025 年強勁的併購活動，我可以問你一個問題嗎？通常情況下，我們看到你們在整合的第二年就能產生非常好的綜效。您能否談談一些較大的交易以及這些資產的業績表現，以及隨著您整合這些資產，我們是否會看到 2026 年與 2025 年相比出現明顯的利好？

Yes. I mean there was nothing overly large that sort of happened in '25. That being said, when we look -- when we embarked on the M&A pipeline for '25, we did just given that we were taking a year and shoving it into basically 6 months, we really focused on the ones that were most accretive that were going to give us the biggest bang for our buck quickest. And I think that's what gives us a lot of conviction around some of the comments we made in our prepared remarks around.

是的。我的意思是，1925年並沒有發生什麼特別大的事。也就是說，當我們回顧——當我們著手製定 2025 年的併購計劃時，考慮到我們要把一年的時間壓縮到基本上 6 個月內完成，我們真正關注的是那些最能帶來收益、能最快地為我們帶來最大回報的併購項目。我認為正是這一點讓我們對我們在準備好的發言稿中提出的一些觀點充滿信心。

I think if you look at the previous 20 quarters of the business, I think the previous 20 quarters, we really sort of met or exceeded expectations. And I think there's multiple levers and multiple avenues for us to continue to exceed expectations in 2026. And a big part of that is realizing synergies on some of these opportunities that we closed in late Q3 and early Q4.

我認為，如果你回顧公司過去 20 個季度的業績，你會發現，在過去的 20 個季度裡，我們基本上都達到了甚至超過了預期。我認為我們有多種手段和途徑，可以在 2026 年繼續超越預期。其中很大一部分原因是實現了我們在第三季末和第四季初達成的一些合作機會的協同效應。

So you're right. We will continue to deliver on those. And I think those will contribute to exceeding the expectation for 2026, coupled together with what we think is a very compelling pipeline for '26. And we looked at some great updates for you as we report Q1 and give some good updates for the balance of the year as we get through the beginning of the year.

你說得對。我們將繼續履行這些承諾。我認為這些因素將有助於我們超越 2026 年的預期，再加上我們認為 2026 年非常有吸引力的專案儲備。我們為您帶來了一些很棒的更新，在報告第一季業績的同時，我們也為大家帶來了一些關於今年剩餘時間的好消息，並展望了年初的進展。

And, Patrick, if I may, just to put a finer point on that. So typically, in year 1 you worked down by about a turn in terms of synergy relative to the acquisition multiples, what we typically see. So just applying that given the outsized M&A in '25, it does feel like that's a big chunk of the core EBITDA growth that you have baked into the numbers unless I'm missing something about the nature of the deals, which is normal?

派崔克，如果可以的話，我想再補充一點。因此，通常情況下，在第一年，相對於收購倍數而言，協同效應會下降約一個週期，這是我們通常看到的。鑑於 2025 年規模龐大的併購活動，除非我對交易的性質有所誤解（這很正常），否則這似乎佔據了您已計入數字中的核心 EBITDA 增長的很大一部分。

Jerry, it's Luke speaking. I think you're absolutely right. We've demonstrated the outsized margin expansion that we've delivered and enjoyed over the past 3 or 4 years, a large part of that is being driven by that synergy capture as you've articulated. So if you think about the 2026 guide, Tyler on the first question was trying to parse it out.

傑瑞，我是路克。我認為你的說法完全正確。我們已經證明了過去三、四年我們所實現和享受到的超大利潤成長，這很大程度上是像您所闡述的那樣，由協同效應的實現所驅動的。所以，如果你想想 2026 年的指南，泰勒在第一個問題上試著把它分析清楚。

But even when you peel it all back you're seeing margin expansion above and beyond what normal course price/cost spread should provide. And the component of that is exactly, as you said, that you're realizing the synergy benefit of all that M&A we did in '25 and also still the tail end of what you did in 2024.

但即使你把所有因素都考慮進去，你也會發現利潤率的擴張遠遠超出了正常課程價格/成本差應該帶來的範圍。正如你所說，其中的組成部分正是你正在實現我們在 2025 年進行的所有併購的協同效應，以及你在 2024 年所做事情的尾聲。

So you're absolutely right. Typically, if you're going to pay, I think, Investor Day, we said we pay sort of 8 times on the face of it and then over time, can take that cost of ownership multiple down through synergy capture. That is happening. You saw that in '25. You saw that in '24.

所以你的說法完全正確。通常情況下，如果你要支付，我認為，在投資者日上，我們說過，表面上我們支付的金額大約是原來的 8 倍，但隨著時間的推移，可以透過協同效應降低持有成本倍數。這事正在發生。你在 2025 年就看到了。你在《24》裡就看到了。

And certainly, for us to be able to have a 26% guide that shows 60 basis points of margin expansion, including, don't forget, like a 25 basis point plus headwind from commodities a few other puts and takes. You're actually at an underlying of closer to 100 basis points of margin expansion in '26, certainly contributing in there is the synergy capture from the acquisitions that you completed in '25 and previously.

當然，我們能夠給出 26% 的指導價，顯示利潤率擴張 60 個基點，其中還包括，別忘了，商品價格上漲帶來的 25 個基點的不利因素，以及其他一些利空因素。實際上，您在 2026 年的潛在利潤率擴張接近 100 個基點，這當然得益於您在 2025 年及之前完成的收購所帶來的協同效應。

Tobey Sommer, Truist.

Tobey Sommer，Truist。

I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit more on some of the green shoots that you said you might be seeing with respect to volume in '26 in both the core and perhaps even ES?

我希望您能更詳細地闡述您所說的在 2026 年核心產品甚至 ES 產品銷售方面可能出現的一些復甦跡象？

Yes. So Tobey, it's Luke speaking. I was speaking in relation to GFL, I want to sort of spoke to that. I think on the macro side, so might be even the indices, whether it's PMI or PPI are actually sort of starting to turn if it's positive or showing some sort of green shoots coming out of that. But it's also just in the sentiment in talking to some of our larger customers as to what their capital plans are for 2026.

是的。托比，我是路克。我當時是在談論《少女前線》，我想就此談談。我認為從宏觀層面來看，就連指數，無論是採購經理人指數（PMI）還是生產者物價指數（PPI），實際上都開始出現好轉跡象，或顯示出一些復甦的跡象。但當我們與一些大客戶談論他們 2026 年的資本計畫時，也能感受到這種情緒。

Very clearly in '25 people shelved a lot of capital plans, whether it was expansionary or the like as they were waiting out to see how the world was going to unfold. I think just having conversations with some of our large customers today, it seems clear that people are figuring out a way to navigate in this period of uncertainty and are going to invest in some of that sort of capital spend that can end up being volume on our side.

很明顯，在 2025 年，人們擱置了許多資本計劃，無論是擴張計劃還是其他類似計劃，因為他們都在觀望世界將如何發展。我認為，今天與一些大客戶的交流表明，人們正在想方設法應對這段不確定的時期，並且會進行一些資本支出，這最終可能會給我們帶來銷售成長。

We also saw on the special waste side, we alluded in the prepared remarks, Q4 some surprise special waste coming out of activity in some of our markets that wasn't otherwise contemplated. As you know, that's obviously a leading indicator for activity that then follows on the back of that. So while we would certainly like to see more green shoots before we get sort of too ahead of our skis, it's certainly positive to just see those indicative indicators suggesting that maybe there's some opportunity on the horizon.

在特殊廢棄物方面，我們也看到了一些意料之外的特殊廢棄物，正如我們在準備好的發言稿中提到的，第四季度，我們的一些市場活動中產生了一些意想不到的特殊廢棄物，而這些廢棄物原本並未被考慮在內。如你所知，這顯然是後續活動的先行指標。所以，雖然我們當然希望在過於樂觀之前看到更多積極的跡象，但看到這些指示性指標表明未來可能存在一些機會，這無疑是件好事。

That's helpful. With respect to the -- moving the headquarters to the US and inclusion in various indexes, could you maybe give us a little bit of color on time line? Any hurdles or decisions that you have to weigh in order to pursue various inclusions?

那很有幫助。關於將總部遷至美國以及納入各種指數的問題，您能否簡要介紹一下時間表？在推進各項納入計畫的過程中，您需要權衡哪些障礙或做出哪些決定？

Yes. So right out of the gate, by virtue of the changes that have already occurred, we become eligible for the Russell set of sort of indices. And the time line is to that how that typically works is mid-spring, I think, in April, they'll make an evaluation, and we believe that we'll check the boxes to be eligible for inclusion. And the actual inclusionary date would happen middle of the year. I think it's in June.

是的。因此，由於已經發生的變化，我們一開始就有資格納入羅素指數。時間安排通常是這樣的：在春季中期，我認為是四月份，他們會進行評估，我們相信我們會符合入選條件。實際納入日期將在年中。我想應該是六月。

And if you look just on the face of it, I mean, the Russell Index inclusion alone could yield somewhere in the mid-single digits of our float, right? So an incremental permanent demand that could come on. By virtue of the step that we've taken, the next step would become the eligibility for other US-based indices, the CRSP being one that is available to us, and we think we're eligible. And then obviously, the S&P sort of 400/500.

如果單從表面上看，僅僅是納入羅素指數就可能使我們的流通股增加個位數，對吧？因此，可能會出現一種持續的增量需求。憑藉我們已經採取的這一步驟，下一步將是獲得其他美國指數的資格，CRSP 是我們可以參與的指數之一，我們認為我們有資格參與。然後，很顯然，還有標普500指數的400/500指數。

Further steps would be required, most notably US GAAP and no longer being a foreign private issuer. Steps are underway for us to be eligible, both from a US GAAP conversion as well as to the filing on the domestic forms. And in doing so, you could then open up that incremental index demand. And if you look at what the index specialists say, there's upwards of another sort of 10% to 15% of volume of our sort of float that could be in demand from that. If you just look overall as to how much passive demand is in the GFL stock versus our peers, there's a meaningful gap.

還需要採取進一步措施，最值得注意的是要符合美國通用會計準則，並且不再是外國私人發行人。我們正在採取措施以獲得資格，包括美國通用會計準則的轉換以及國內表格的申報。這樣做，就可以打開增量指數需求。如果你看看指數專家怎麼說，你會發現我們這類流通股中還有高達 10% 到 15% 的交易量可能受到需求。如果從整體來看 GFL 股票與同業相比的被動需求量，就會發現有顯著差距。

And I think this headquarters announcement is a first step in starting to close this. So there's a significant degree of incremental demand that we think over the short and medium term should come into the name, and we're going to continue to actively pursue that.

我認為此次總部公告是開始解決此事的第一步。因此，我們認為短期和中期內，這個品牌會有相當大的增量需求，我們將繼續積極追求這項需求。

As Patrick alluded to in his opening remarks, one of the benefits of the current strategy, thanks to some of the sort of recent changes to the S&P definitions, is none of these changes preclude our eventual inclusion or eligibility therefore into the TSX 60, which, as many know, would drive even more incremental asset demand. So we think we have a very nice near and medium and longer-term tailwind that should drive a significant incremental permanent demand for a large component of our float.

正如帕特里克在開場白中所提到的，由於標普500指數定義最近的一些變化，當前策略的好處之一是，這些變化都不會妨礙我們最終被納入或有資格加入多倫多證券交易所60指數，而眾所周知，這將推動更多的新增資產需求。因此，我們認為我們擁有非常好的近期、中期和長期利好因素，這將推動對我們大部分浮存金的顯著增量永久性需求。

James Schumm, TD Cowen.

James Schumm，TD Cowen。

So Luke, just a clarification on the pricing. I think -- so pricing was 6.4% in the fourth quarter. I think you said Q1, your mid-4s or in the 6s. And I think you said you're largely 80% contracted through the year as of Q1 or something like that. So help me understand, I mean I know that pricing will bleed lower, just the math of it throughout the year. But like how do you get to mid-5s from 6.4% or solidly in the 6%?

盧克，關於價格方面，我需要澄清一下。我認為——所以第四季的價格漲幅為 6.4%。我想你說的是Q1，你的成績在4分中段或6分左右。我想你說過，截至第一季度，你今年的合約執行率大概有 80% 左右。所以請幫我理解一下，我的意思是，我知道價格會逐漸下降，只是需要計算一下全年的價格走勢。但是，如何才能從 6.4% 達到 5% 左右，或穩居 6% 以上呢？

Yes. Jim, thanks for the question. It's a good one. I know sometimes the pricing map can get a little confusing, but it's really a function of the quarter over the prior year quarter. And during a period of ramping pricing during the year, effectively, the pricing actions I did in H2 '25, I now have certainty of those rolling over into H1 of '26.

是的。吉姆，謝謝你的提問。這是個好主意。我知道價格走勢圖有時可能會讓人有點困惑，但這實際上是本季與去年同期相比的變化。在一年中逐步提高價格的時期，實際上，我在 2025 年下半年採取的價格措施，我現在可以確定這些措施將延續到 2026 年上半年。

And therefore, just gives me a high degree of certainty of the actual dollars of price that will be realized into these quarters. So if you think about a Q1 number being in the sort of mid-6s and if that then steps down and forgive me, I don't have the rest of the quarter cadence in front of me, but think of that then stepping down to the high-5s that then steps down to the low-5s that then steps down to 5, that's how you're going to blend to a number in the sort of mid-5s.

因此，這讓我對這些季度最終實現的實際價格（以美元計）有了高度的確定性。所以，如果你想像第一季的數字在 6 的中段，然後它逐漸下降，請原諒，我手頭沒有剩下的季度節奏，但想像一下它逐漸下降到高 5，然後下降到低 5，最後下降到 5，這就是你如何過渡到 5 的中段數字。

So that's the sort of rough cadence of it. That is absent any incremental pricing actions. That's what to get taken through the year. And as I said, we think, we hope that we're able to actually do sort of slightly better than that, right? The pricing you ultimately realize is a function of stick rate, and so you do pricing actions sometimes have roll backs that you need to do to establish the sort of firm-level pricing.

大致節奏就是這樣。前提是沒有任何增量定價措施。這就是一年中需要學習的內容。正如我所說，我們認為，我們希望我們能夠做得比這稍微好一些，對吧？最終實現的定價取決於持股比例，因此，定價行動有時會有回滾，你需要進行回滾才能建立公司層面的定價。

And obviously, the full extent of those aren't known to us today. We're taking estimate based on our past experience. But that is the basis on which the math would yield that sort of mid-5 number.

顯然，這些事件的全部影響範圍我們今天尚不清楚。我們是根據以往經驗進行估算的。但這就是數學計算得出5的中間值的基礎。

Okay. Great. And then my last one, you basically just touched on it, but in the prior question. But given that FX is moving your financials and your guidance around quite a bit, like I was going to ask, do you have plans to report in US dollars. It sounds like you said maybe you've got something in the works, but what would be the timing on that?

好的。偉大的。至於我的最後一個問題，你剛才其實已經提過了，但在上一個問題中已經牽涉到了。但鑑於外匯波動對你們的財務數據和業績指引造成了相當大的影響，就像我原本想問的那樣，你們是否有計劃以美元計價發布報告？聽起來你好像說過你正在籌備一些事情，但大概什麼時候能實現呢？

Yes, it's a great question and something that we think a lot about because today, FX moves against us is a benefit for our peers. So we're sort of moving in opposite directions, and I think it just adds incremental complexity to the comparability. So I think the eventual outcome is that we convert to being a US GAAP reporter again, eliminating diversion and reporting between us and our peers. And you could evaluate being a US dollar-denominated sort of reporter as well. I mean, more and more, our business has grown in the US.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，也是我們一直在思考的問題，因為如今外匯市場對我們不利的走勢對我們的同行來說是有利的。所以我們現在有點朝著相反的方向發展，我認為這只會增加可比較的複雜性。所以我認為最終結果是我們將再次成為美國通用會計準則報告者，從而消除我們與同行之間的資訊轉移和報告差異。你也可以評估一下做一個以美元計價的記者是什麼樣的體驗。我的意思是，我們的業務在美國發展得越來越好。

However, we still have a very sizable business in Canada and the sort of back-end infrastructure and shared services is all based there. So we'll continue to evaluate I think, though, if you were to make a change to be a US GAAP filer, it may make sense at that time that you also went to a US dollar currency, just to fully align comparability amongst the sort of peer group. The timing for that, Jim, I'd tell you is as of speaking about the Russell, we think there's a path where being a sort of Russell inclusion midway through this year.

然而，我們在加拿大仍然擁有非常龐大的業務，後端基礎設施和共享服務也都設在那裡。所以我們會繼續評估，不過我認為，如果您要改為採用美國通用會計準則 (US GAAP) 申報，那麼屆時採用美元貨幣可能也是合理的，這樣才能與同業群體完全保持一致的可比性。吉姆，關於時機，我想告訴你的是，就羅素而言，我們認為今年年中有可能成為羅素的某種組成部分。

The next big inclusions would require a US GAAP conversion. And I think we intend to be ready to do that as early as Jan 1, 2027. Now whether or not we actually sort of go forward at that date or you wait to the end of the year is still sort of TBD, but it's not going to happen in '26, but we're certainly taking the steps in preparation now to be ready to do that sometime in the future. I could see a potential outcome be do it at the end of 2027 in advance of 2028. But certainly, we're exploring all options.

接下來的重大納入將需要進行美國通用會計準則轉換。我認為我們計劃最早在 2027 年 1 月 1 日做好實現這一目標的準備。現在，我們是否真的會在那個日期推進，還是等到年底，目前還未確定，但肯定不會在 2026 年發生，但我們現在肯定正在採取措施進行準備，以便將來某個時候能夠做到這一點。我認為一個可能的結果是在 2027 年底完成，為 2028 年做好準備。當然，我們正在探索所有可能的方案。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

Stephanie Moore，傑富瑞集團。

Great. Luke, I just wanted to follow up on a question, maybe two or three questions ago, we were talking about the outsized margin expansion this year outside of price cost spread. I think Luke you did a really good job at the Analyst Day of outlining kind of all the self-help initiatives, ancillary pricing, automation and the like that you expected over the next couple of years.

偉大的。盧克，我只是想跟進一下之前的一個問題，大約兩三個問題之前，我們討論的是今年價格成本差之外的利潤率大幅擴張。盧克，我認為你在分析師日上做得非常好，你概述了未來幾年你預期的所有自助計劃、輔助定價、自動化等等。

Can you maybe give us an update on how those are trending? What we should be thinking about in 2026 that's really moving the needle? And I guess as a follow-up to that, if we do expect to see a more outsized M&A even this year or next year, do some of these investments help make those integrations and synergy captures that much more effective?

您能否為我們更新這些趨勢的進展？2026年我們應該思考哪些真正具有改變意義的事？我想接著問，如果我們預計今年或明年會出現規模更大的併購，那麼這些投資是否有助於使整合和協同效應的實現更加有效？

Yes. Thanks, Stephanie. It's a great question. Something that as we look back on the Investor Day presentation and our outperformance in 2025, gives us even further conviction in our ability to realize those financial benefits from the self-help levers that we had articulated based on how successful we were in '25.

是的。謝謝你，斯蒂芬妮。這是一個很好的問題。回顧投資者日演講以及我們在 2025 年的優異表現，這讓我們更加確信，我們有能力透過我們根據 2025 年的成功情況所闡述的自助槓桿來實現這些財務收益。

Look, if you think about the leverage starting with the pricing, I mean, obviously, we started '25 in an expectation of low to mid-5s pricing, ended the year at 6.1, nearly 70 bps of outperformance. A big part of that was the realization of those sort of ancillary surcharge program as we had sort of anticipated. I think we articulated a $40 million to $80 million prize there, taking that at this sort of midpoint roughly the $60 million amount that I mean, I think we're set up and on pace to recognize that ratably over the 4-year period, arguably a little front-end loaded as we've demonstrated in '25.

你看，如果你從定價的角度來考慮槓桿作用，我的意思是，很明顯，我們在 2025 年初預期定價在 5 到 5 的低位到中位，而年底定價為 6.1，超額收益近 70 個基點。其中很大一部分原因是我們之前預期的那種附加費計畫得以實現。我認為我們當時提出的獎金是 4000 萬到 8000 萬美元，取中間值大約 6000 萬美元，我的意思是，我認為我們已經做好準備，並且能夠按計劃在 4 年內逐步實現這一目標，正如我們在 2025 年所展示的那樣，前期投入可能會比較大。

As I said in the prepared remarks, pricing for 2026, estimated in the sort of mid-5s range. And any further accelerated implementation of the ancillary search charges could give upside to that number. So we're feeling really good on that aspect or that's what a self-help lever. When you start getting into the middle and the next one was employee turnover.

正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，2026 年的定價預計在 5 倍中段水準。而進一步加快實施輔助搜索費用可能會使這個數字上升。所以，我們在這方面感覺非常好，或者說，這就是自助的力量。當你開始進入中間階段時，下一個問題是員工流動率。

We said, as we reduce this employee turnover, we're going to realize the benefit of the efficiency, the cost of risk the onboarding and the productivity associated with that. And I think you're seeing that as well. I mean across the cost category lines this year from direct labor costs, R&M expense, to SG&A. You're seeing the operating leverage come and part of that is that improved labor turnover. We got to high teens in '25. We see more room for improvement in '26 and '27. And certainly, those benefits are accruing to the bottom line.

我們說過，隨著員工流動率的降低，我們將實現效率提升、降低入職風險成本以及提高生產力所帶來的好處。我想你也看到了這一點。我的意思是今年所有成本類別，從直接人力成本、維修保養費用到銷售、管理及行政費用。你會看到經營槓桿效應的出現，其中一部分原因是勞動力流動率的提升。1925年我們達到了十幾歲。我們認為 2026 年和 2027 年還有更大的進步空間。當然，這些好處最終都會反映在公司的獲利上。

The next -- the fleet conversion and CNG piece, I believe, was the next lever. I mean I think when we started this, we had a sort of mid- to high-teens percentage of our fleet being CNG. And we brought that up to mid-20s. And we're now on a path to sort of be close to 30% and certainly seeing the benefits of that coming through in the results as well. So we feel really good with the ratable realization of that benefit or that prize that was articulated on that side.

我認為，下一個關鍵點——車隊改造和 CNG 專案——是下一個槓桿。我的意思是，我覺得在我們剛開始的時候，我們的車隊中 CNG 車輛的比例大概在 15% 到 10% 之間。我們將這個數字提高到了20多歲。我們現在正朝著接近 30% 的目標邁進，也確實在結果中看到了這種做法帶來的好處。因此，我們對那一方所闡述的利益或獎勵的實現感到非常滿意。

And the last one was just the sort of general procurement and overall sort of efficiency in the middle. And I think you're seeing that as well. So you peel it all back, what gives us a great sense of optimism is we're not relying on any one of those levers to drive outsized performance. It's, in fact, the combination of each of them in small, little ways, but all adding up to this differentiated margin expansion that you're seeing in our business versus ours.

最後一項是關於一般採購和整體效率的討論。我想你也看到了這一點。所以，當你把所有因素都剝離開來，讓我們感到樂觀的是，我們並沒有依賴任何一個槓桿來推動超乎尋常的業績。事實上，正是這些因素在細微之處相互結合，最終造就了你們在我們公司與競爭對手公司之間看到的這種差異化的利潤增長。

So '26, we're excited to continue to deliver. As we said, we see avenues of upside on the guide and certainly continued outperformance in those levers will be sort of part of that. '25 was a great starting year, and we hope to be able to continue the trend.

所以，在2026年，我們很高興能夠繼續為大家帶來精彩內容。正如我們所說，我們看到了該指引的上漲空間，而這些槓桿的持續優異表現無疑是其中的重要因素。 2025年是一個好的開端，我們希望能夠延續這一趨勢。

Adam Bubes, Goldman Sachs.

Adam Bubes，高盛集團。

Patrick, you talked about potential for an outsized year of M&A. Just how far above the $1 billion annual target would you be comfortable going? I mean just back of the envelope math, I think, every $500 million of incremental M&A only adds 0.1 or 0.2 to leverage.

派崔克，你之前提到今年併購活動可能會異常活躍。您認為超出每年10億美元目標多少才算合適？我的意思是，簡單估算一下，我認為，每增加 5 億美元的併購，槓桿率只會增加 0.1 或 0.2。

Yes. I think -- we think where we sit today, you could even spend $1.5 billion to $2 billion. I think temporarily, leverage might be sort of in the $3.75 billion to $3.8 billion range intra-quarter, but then you still exit the year in the mid-3s. So I think that's where I think you sort of peak out before you would need some form of equity. And I think going back to -- I think we've telegraphed in Q4 and sort of late Q3 was that we think that this year could be.

是的。我認為——以我們目前的處境來看，甚至可以花費 15 億到 20 億美元。我認為短期內，槓桿率可能在季度內達到 37.5 億美元至 38 億美元之間，但到年底仍將保持在 30 億美元左右。所以我覺得，在你達到事業巔峰，之後你就不需要某種形式的股權了。我認為，回顧我們之前在第四季和第三季末的表現，我們認為今年可能會是這樣。

That being said, we're still in diligence on a lot of these opportunities and nothing is for certain. But yes, your math is right, obviously, depending on what the purchase price is for you're buying that sort of -- but in that range, you're correct. And I think that you would still end up in the low to mid-3s, even deploying that amount of capital.

話雖如此，我們仍在對許多投資機會進行盡職調查，一切都還未成定局。是的，你的計算是正確的，顯然，這取決於你購買的那種商品的價格——但在那個範圍內，你是對的。即使投入這麼多資金，我認為最終收益率只會達到 3% 左右。

And then, Luke, I think you said for 2026 margin guidance, there's 100 basis points of underlying margin expansion, 25 basis point headwind for commodities. What are some of the other puts and takes that get you to 60 basis points? And then can you just help us think through the cadence of going from 150 basis points year-over-year and I think, guidance obviously embeds decelerating margin expansion throughout the year?

然後，盧克，我想你說過，對於 2026 年的利潤率指引，基本利潤率將擴張 100 個基點，但大宗商品將面臨 25 個基點的不利因素。還有哪些的買賣作業可以讓你達到 60 個基點的收益？那麼，您能否幫我們釐清一下年比增速 150 個基點的節奏呢？我認為，業績指引顯然包含了全年利潤率成長放緩的預期。

Yes, Adam, great question. If you think about 60 basis points margin expansion on the headline number included therein, you got a 25 basis point headwind from commodities, you got 5 basis point headwind from the Q1 year-over-year comp on that hurricane volume that I alluded to. Again, we always hope there is no natural disasters. But in 2025, we enjoyed excess volume at a high margin. So back in that under bps. I think have a 10 basis point headwind from FX and some of the carbon credits that you realized in '25.

是的，亞當，問得好。如果你考慮到其中包含的總體數字的 60 個基點的利潤率擴張，你會受到大宗商品 25 個基點的不利影響，以及我提到的颶風交易量第一季同比 5 個基點的不利影響。我們當然希望不會發生天災。但到了 2025 年，我們獲得了過剩的銷售量和很高的利潤率。所以回到低於bps的情況。我認為外匯市場會帶來 10 個基點的不利影響，而且你在 2025 年獲得了一些碳排放權。

So when you think about the 60 basis point headline number, backing out those amounts, yields about 100 basis points sort of underlying piece overall. When you think about the cadence, Q1, as I said, the 150 basis point beat based on the guide year-over-year. Q2 of last year, you enjoyed an exceptional sort of margin performance. And so actually contemplating, I think, flat to a little backwards in Q2. And then Q3 and Q4, modestly ahead.

所以，當你考慮到 60 個基點的總體數字時，減去這些金額，就會得到大約 100 個基點的實際數字。當你考慮節奏時，正如我所說，Q1，根據同比指南，比預期高出 150 個基點。去年第二季度，你們的利潤率表現非常出色。所以實際上，我認為第二季度可能會持平甚至略有下滑。第三季和第四季略有領先。

I think what you're seeing is as the business matures and our geography expands in the South, you're seeing a bit of a flattening of that sort of seasonality, so as opposed to the peaks and valleys from Q1 to Q3 that we historically had. You're seeing a bit of a sort of flattening of that year-over-year. And we expect sort of more of the same.

我認為你現在看到的是，隨著業務的成熟和我們在南方地區的擴張，這種季節性波動正在逐漸趨於平緩，與我們過去從第一季到第三季度出現的峰值和低谷形成對比。你會看到這種年比趨勢有所趨於平緩。我們預計情況還會繼續類似。

But that's the basis for the expectation of the cadence throughout the year. You also have Adam recall, the commodity comp will bigger drag in the first half of the year and then that steps down as you go throughout the year. So the underlying will have less adjustments to achieve by the time you get to Q4, if commodity prices stay where they are today.

但這就是全年節奏預期的基礎。你也可以回想亞當的說法，大宗商品價格競爭在上半年會造成更大的拖累，然後隨著時間的推移，這種拖累會逐漸減弱。因此，如果大宗商品價格保持在目前的水平，那麼到第四季度，基礎資產需要進行的調整就會減少。

Aadit Shrestha, Stifel.

Aadit Shrestha，Stifel。

Just a quick one. In terms of the reported volume of 50 bps for 2025, how much of that was from EPR and RNG ramping up?

就簡單問一下。據報道，2025 年產量將達到 50 個基點，其中有多少來自 EPR 和 RNG 的增產？

RNG had a de minimis component to the overall thing because RNG is much less a revenue story for us than it is. There's a little bit in there from R&D ramping up, but that's not a sort of significant component of that. I think when you look at EPR and you look at our Canada-wide sort of volume, I think the numbers we would have reported was EPR was about $10 million in Q1, roughly $20 million of each of Q2 and Q3. And then as you had lapped the Q4, it was de minimis. I think it was like sort of $5 million or $7 million in Q4.

RNG 在整體中只佔很小一部分，因為 RNG 對我們來說遠沒有現在這麼重要，它帶來的收入遠低於預期。研發投入增加確實帶來了一些好處，但這並不是其中的重要組成部分。我認為，當你審視EPR以及我們在加拿大全國範圍內的業務量時，我認為我們原本會報告的數字是，EPR在第一季度約為1000萬美元，第二季度和第三季度各約為2000萬美元。然後，當你在 Q4 中跑完一圈後，這就微不足道了。我記得第四季大概是 500 萬到 700 萬美元。

So you certainly got some outsized contribution from that. Where we take comfort is even when you strip that out, when you think about some of that hurricane volume they're comping year-over-year, you're still, I think, at an industry-leading sort of volume print, again, just going back to some of our market selection where we enjoy volumetric growth is based on the macro that's happening in Central Florida, Georgia and some of our Texas markets to help sort of offset some of the C&D related exposure.

所以你肯定從中獲得了相當大的貢獻。我們感到欣慰的是，即使剔除這些因素，考慮到颶風帶來的業務量與往年同期相比的變化，我認為你們的業務量仍然處於行業領先地位。此外，我們選擇在佛羅裡達州中部、喬治亞州和德克薩斯州的一些市場進行業務量增長，是基於這些市場宏觀經濟形勢，這有助於抵消一些建築和拆除相關的風險。

And just in terms of your guide for volume for next year, what are you sort of kind of building into your guidance in terms of recovery seen because you mentioned some green shoots that you're seeing. So are you trying to -- are you thinking of building in some since volumes in there or anything like that? Or is it really what you're seeing right now?

至於您對明年銷售的預測，您考慮到復甦的跡象，在您的預測中加入了哪些內容？因為您提到了一些復甦的跡象。所以你是想——你是打算在裡面建造一些自旋軌道之類的東西嗎？或者，這真的是你現在看到的嗎？

No. Our guide is based on the environment that we see today. So we just assume sort of status quo. The green shoot sort of commentary was more, as I was alluding to some of these conversations and touch points we've had with our customers. Look, January is going to be a tough volume month right at the gate just because when you think about the amount of snow that's come and blanketed Wisconsin, Michigan, Toronto, these are markets that are used to snow, but this has been an exceptional level of snow. So I think you've got a pretty tough start to the year in January.

不。我們的指南是根據我們今天所看到的實際情況編寫的。所以我們只能假設現狀維持不變。我所說的「萌芽」之類的評論更多的是，我指的是我們與客戶進行的一些對話和接觸點。你看，一月份的銷售從一開始就會很低迷，因為想想威斯康辛州、密西根州、多倫多這些地方都下了雪，這些地方雖然經常下雪，但這次的雪量確實異常大。所以我覺得你一月的開局相當艱難。

But again, it's just sort of structurally of some of the contracts we've won, EPR coming online and the like that gives us sort of confidence or to print a slightly positive number. Certainly, any recovery as we think about our C&D volumes or just broader macroeconomic activity could provide a tailwind above and beyond, but that would all be additive. We're just assuming status quo with the current sort of macro environment.

但話說回來，正是我們贏得的一些合約的結構性因素，以及EPR上線等項目，給了我們一定的信心，讓我們能夠公佈一個略微積極的數字。當然，如果我們考慮建築和開發量或更廣泛的宏觀經濟活動，任何復甦都可能帶來額外的利好，但這都將是疊加效應。我們只是假設當前的宏觀環境維持現狀。

Thank you. At this time, I would now like to pass the conference back over to Patrick Dovigi for any closing remarks.

謝謝。現在，我謹將會議交還給派崔克‧多維吉，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining. Much appreciated. We look forward to catching up when we report Q1. Thank you.

謝謝大家的參與。非常感謝。我們期待在發布第一季財報時與大家見面。謝謝。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。