奇異 (GE) 2015 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the General Electric first-quarter 2015 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. My name is Jeannette and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder the conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好。歡迎參加通用電氣2015年第一季財報電話會議。此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。我叫珍妮特 (Jeannette)，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。（操作員指令）。提醒一下，會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Matt Cribbins, Vice President of Investor Communications. Please proceed.

現在，我想將節目交給今天會議的主持人、投資者通訊副總裁 Matt Cribbins。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning and welcome, everyone. We are pleased to host today's first-quarter 2015 earnings webcast. Regarding the materials for this webcast, we issued the press release, presentation and supplemental earlier this morning on our website at www.ge.com/investor.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎大家。我們很高興主持今天的 2015 年第一季財報網路廣播。關於本次網路廣播的資料，我們今天早上在我們的網站 www.ge.com/investor 上發布了新聞稿、簡報和補充資料。

As a reminder elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change as the world changes. Please interpret them in that light.

提醒一下，本次演示的元素是前瞻性的，並且基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。這些元素會隨著世界的變化而改變。請從這個角度來解釋它們。

For today's webcast we have our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt, and our Senior Vice President and CFO, Jeff Bornstein.

今天的網路直播嘉賓有我們的董事長兼執行長 Jeff Immelt 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Jeff Bornstein。

Now I would like to turn it over to our Chairman and CEO, Jeff Immelt.

現在我想把發言權交給我們的董事長兼執行長傑夫·伊梅爾特。

Thanks, Matt. GE had a good quarter in a slow growth and volatile environment, just to give you an economic read from the world of GE. We see the US getting a little bit better every day. Europe is slightly improving. Overall China remains good for GE. Resource rich markets are mixed. We expect to have positive revenue in places like the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Meanwhile Russia and Australia will be tough.

謝謝，馬特。通用電氣在緩慢增長和動蕩的環境中度過了一個良好的季度，只是為了讓您從通用電氣的世界中了解經濟狀況。我們看到美國每天都在進步一點點。歐洲略有改善。總體而言，中國市場對通用電氣仍然有利。資源豐富的市場表現不一。我們預計中東、拉丁美洲和非洲等地將實現正收入。同時，俄羅斯和澳洲將會表現強硬。

We are seeing the world that we planned for. Industrial EPS grew by 14% despite having $0.03 of uncovered restructuring. Operating EPS was $0.31 excluding the impact of the capital announcement. Organically orders were up 1% and revenue grew 3%. Industrial segment profit grew by 9% or 12% organically with margins up 120 basis points.

我們正在看到我們所計劃的世界。儘管有 0.03 美元的未覆蓋重組，工業每股收益仍成長了 14%。不計資本公告的影響，營業每股收益為 0.31 美元。有機訂單成長了 1%，收入成長了 3%。工業部門利潤有機成長 9% 至 12%，利潤率上升 120 個基點。

Oil and gas had a solid first quarter. Organically they were positive in orders with revenue flat. Profit was up 11% organically. The oil and gas market remains volatile with some segments under pressure. However, our diversified Oil and Gas platforms delivered in the first quarter. We are on track for our targets in 2015.

石油和天然氣第一季表現穩健。從有機角度來看，他們的訂單量呈正成長，收入持平。利潤有機成長11%。石油和天然氣市場依然動盪，部分領域面臨壓力。然而，我們的多元化石油和天然氣平台在第一季交付。我們正在順利實現 2015 年的目標。

We are running the Company well. We spent a bit of time last week discussing capital allocation. I would only reiterate that we were in full execution of our GE Capital plan. All of our CFOA targets and capital allocation goals are in line with our framework. We remain on track for industrial EPS of $1.10 to $1.20.

我們的公司經營得很好。上週我們花了一些時間討論資本配置。我只想重申，我們正在全面執行通用電氣資本計劃。我們所有的 CFOA 目標和資本配置目標都符合我們的框架。我們仍預期工業每股收益為 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元。

Orders were up 1% organically and we finished the quarter with $263 billion of backlog. Again, Oil and Gas orders were up 2% organically as they closed a few big subsidy deals. Orders pricing declined slightly.

訂單有機成長了 1%，本季末我們的積壓訂單總額為 2,630 億美元。再次，由於達成了幾筆大型補貼交易，石油和天然氣訂單有機增長了 2%。訂單定價略有下降。

Service orders were up 3% organically with broad-based strength. Aviation spares grew by 31% and remain robust. We remain on track for strong orders in predictivity in 2015. New install orders for Healthcare IT grew substantially in the first quarter. We launched asset performance management in the manufacturing space. Orders for Transportation, software and solutions are planned to be up 50% for the year and we expect consistent growth for wind power up and AGPs for the year.

服務訂單有機成長 3%，且呈現全面強勁勢頭。航空備件成長了31%，並且保持強勁成長。我們預計 2015 年訂單仍將保持強勁成長。第一季醫療保健 IT 的新安裝訂單大幅成長。我們在製造領域推出了資產績效管理。運輸、軟體和解決方案的訂單計畫今年將成長 50%，我們預計今年風力發電和 AGP 的訂單將持續成長。

We saw some encouraging signs in the quarter. Aviation remains very strong recording $800 million on LEAP orders. The LEAP has won 79% of all neo and MAX orders. LEAP engines for neo and C919 are flying and the LEAP for Boeing is in the test plane and flying soon. The engine is ahead of schedule. The LEAP engine has been one of our most successful product launches in history.

我們在本季看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。航空業依然表現強勁，LEAP 訂單達 8 億美元。LEAP 贏得了所有 neo 和 MAX 訂單的 79%。用於 neo 和 C919 的 LEAP 發動機正在飛行，用於波音的 LEAP 發動機正在試飛中，即將飛行。引擎提前運轉。LEAP 引擎是我們史上最成功的產品之一。

Healthcare equipment orders grew by 5% in the US, Transportation continued to record global wins and they received a $350 million order in Angola. Power conversion grew orders by 10% and we have solid orders performance in China of 54%. We expected Power to have tough comps in the first quarter. In addition they saw several orders slip into the second quarter but overall we see good demand for units in North America, Japan, Saudi, North Africa, Mexico and Brazil. And we anticipate a strong power orders recovery in the second quarter.

美國的醫療設備訂單成長了 5%，運輸業務繼續創下全球佳績，並在安哥拉獲得了 3.5 億美元的訂單。電力轉換訂單成長了 10%，我們在中國的訂單表現穩健，達到 54%。我們預計 Power 在第一季的業績將十分艱難。此外，他們還發現有幾份訂單推遲到了第二季度，但總體而言，我們看到北美、日本、沙烏地阿拉伯、北非、墨西哥和巴西對機組的需求良好。我們預計第二季電力訂單將強勁復甦。

Our orders support our organic growth target for the year.

我們的訂單支持我們今年的有機成長目標。

Our businesses executed well in the quarter. Organic revenue growth was up 3%, geographic growth was balanced, US was up 2% and growth markets were up 6%. We saw strength in China up 6%, Middle East up 19%, Africa up 11% and Latin America up 13%.

本季我們的業務表現良好。有機收入成長 3%，地理成長均衡，美國成長 2%，成長市場成長 6%。我們看到中國的成長勢頭強勁，成長了 6%，中東成長了 19%，非洲成長了 11%，拉丁美洲成長了 13%。

From a business standpoint, we had organic growth in six of seven segments and we have forecast organic growth of up 2% to 5% and remain on track for that.

從業務角度來看，我們在七個部門中的六個部門實現了有機成長，我們預測有機成長率將達到 2% 至 5%，並且仍將保持這一成長勢頭。

Margins continue to be a good story with growth of 120 basis points. We have targeted 50 basis points of gross margin expansion for the year and we hit 90 basis points in the first quarter. We had favorable mix, value gap and productivity in the quarter.

利潤率持續保持良好勢頭，成長了 120 個基點。我們今年的目標是毛利率成長 50 個基點，而第一季我們已實現了 90 個基點。本季我們的產品組合、價值差距和生產力都表現良好。

Meanwhile simplification continues to track good results and we're seeing more benefits ahead. One of the goals for 2015 is to expand margins in both equipment and service. We grew equipment margins by 120 basis points and service by 70 basis points in the quarter. We are making progress on margins as a Company.

同時，簡化繼續取得良好的效果，我們看到了未來更多的好處。2015年的目標之一是擴大設備和服務的利潤率。本季度，我們的設備利潤率提高了 120 個基點，服務利潤率提高了 70 個基點。作為一家公司，我們正在提高利潤率。

Industrial CFOA was $900 million. It was less than expected. Our shortfall was driven by some Aviation supply chain disruptions in Power and Water orders timing. We will recover this in the second quarter.

工業 CFOA 為 9 億美元。這比預期的要少。我們的短缺是由於部分航空供應鏈在電力和水訂單時間上出現中斷所造成的。我們將在第二季度恢復這一水平。

At the half we plan on CFOA to be significantly higher than a year ago and we are on track for our CFOA goals for the year.

我們計劃今年上半年的 CFOA 將比去年同期大幅提高，並且我們正在按計劃實現今年的 CFOA 目標。

Our balance sheet remains quite strong. In the future we will continue to look at ways to achieve a more efficient balance sheet.

我們的資產負債表依然相當強勁。未來我們將繼續尋找實現更有效率資產負債表的方法。

From a capital allocation standpoint, Alstom remains on track for a second half close. We always expected that this deal would get a second look in the US and Europe. Alstom is impacted by similar volatile market dynamics as GE but we continue to see this as a good strategic and financial fit for us. And we intend on completing a deal that is good for investors.

從資本配置的角度來看，阿爾斯通下半年的收盤仍有望順利完成。我們一直預計這筆交易將得到美國和歐洲的重新審視。阿爾斯通受到與通用電氣類似的市場波動的影響，但我們仍然認為這對我們來說具有良好的策略和財務契合度。我們打算完成一項對投資者有利的交易。

Now over to Jeff.

現在交給傑夫。

Thanks, Jeff. I will start with the first quarter summary. As we discussed last week, we took a significant day one charge related to the exit of the non-vertical assets of GE Capital. On this page I will start with the underlying financial performance of the Company excluding those charges and then on the next page I walk you back to our reported financials.

謝謝，傑夫。我先做第一季的總結。正如我們上週所討論的，我們在第一天就承擔了與退出通用電氣資本非垂直資產相關的重大費用。在本頁中，我將首先介紹公司不包括這些費用的基本財務業績，然後在下一頁，我將帶您回到我們報告的財務狀況。

We had revenues of $33.1 billion, which were down 3% in the quarter driven by GE Capital which was down 7%. Industrial sales of $23.8 billion were down 1%. Operating earnings of $3.1 billion were down 5% on lower GE Capital earnings.

我們的營收為 331 億美元，本季下降了 3%，主要是因為通用電氣資本 (GE Capital) 下降了 7%。工業銷售額為238億美元，下降1%。由於通用電氣資本公司獲利下降，其營業利潤為 31 億美元，下降了 5%。

Operating earnings per share of $0.31 were down 6% with Industrial EPS up 14% and GE Capital EPS down 21%. Continuing EPS of $0.27 includes the impact of non-operating pension and net EPS includes the impact of discontinued operations.

每股營業收益 0.31 美元，下降 6%，其中工業每股收益成長 14%，而 GE Capital 每股收益下降 21%。0.27 美元的持續每股盈餘包括非經營性退休金的影響，淨每股盈餘包括已終止經營業務的影響。

As Jeff said, CFOA for the quarter was $1.3 billion. We had industrial CFOA of $900 million and received $450 million of dividends from GE Capital. Industrial cash flow was lighter than our expectations driven by timing on progress collections particularly in Power and Water and the impact of an Aviation supply chain issue on inventory. These timing issues will reverse in the second and third quarter and our expectation is that the industrial cash flow will be stronger in 2Q and will be up substantially for the first half versus last year.

正如傑夫所說，本季的 CFOA 為 13 億美元。我們擁有 9 億美元的工業 CFOA，並從 GE Capital 獲得了 4.5 億美元的股息。工業現金流低於我們的預期，這是由於進度收集時間安排不當（尤其是電力和水務方面的進度收集）以及航空供應鏈問題對庫存的影響。這些時間問題將在第二季和第三季扭轉，我們預計第二季工業現金流將更加強勁，上半年將比去年大幅成長。

The GE Capital exit significantly impacts our tax rates for the quarter. As a result, we are providing both the reported tax provisions and tax rates on the bottom left side of the chart. The GE tax rate for the quarter was 23% in line with guidance we provided. The reported GE Capital tax rate is not meaningful as the charges to shrink the Company caused there to be a $6.2 billion tax expense while there is a significant pretax loss.

通用電氣資本的退出對我們本季的稅率產生了重大影響。因此，我們在圖表的左下方提供了報告的稅收規定和稅率。本季通用電氣的稅率為 23%，與我們提供的指引一致。報告的通用電氣資本稅率並不重要，因為縮減公司規模的費用導致公司產生了 62 億美元的稅費，同時也出現了巨額稅前虧損。

As we noted previously, GE Capital will have a higher tax rate going forward and we expect variability in the tax rate as we transition the business through the next few years.

正如我們之前提到的，通用電氣資本未來的稅率將會更高，並且我們預計在未來幾年業務轉型過程中稅率會有所變化。

On the right side you can see the segment results. Industrial segment revenues were down 1% reported and up 3% organically reflecting about 4 points of headwind from foreign exchange. Foreign exchange was approximately a $940 million drag on industrial segment revenue and about $120 million impact on op profit. Despite this headwind, industrial segment operating profit was up 9%.

在右側您可以看到細分結果。工業部門營收報告下降 1%，有機成長 3%，反映出外匯帶來的約 4 個百分點的逆風。外匯對工業部門收入造成約 9.4 億美元的拖累，對營業利潤造成約 1.2 億美元的損失。儘管面臨這種不利因素，工業部門的營業利潤仍增加了 9%。

GE Capital earnings were down 21% primarily driven by lower Synchrony earnings due to the minority interest and lower assets. I'll cover the dynamics of each of the segments in a couple of pages but first I want to walk these results to our reported financials.

GE Capital 收益下降 21%，主要原因是少數股權和資產減少導致 Synchrony 收益下降。我將在幾頁中介紹每個部分的動態，但首先我想將這些結果與我們報告的財務狀況連結起來。

Starting with the first column on the left and working down, as we said, industrial operating earnings were $1.6 billion, up 14% and GE Capital earnings were $1.5 billion for total operating earnings of $3.1 billion. Including non-operating pension, continuing earnings were $2.7 billion. We had an approximately $80 million benefit in discontinued operation associated with the sale of our consumer mortgage business in Australia to bring net earnings to $2.8 billion.

從左邊的第一列開始向下數，正如我們所說，工業營業收入為 16 億美元，成長 14%，通用電氣資本營業收入為 15 億美元，總營業收入為 31 億美元。包括非營業養老金在內，持續獲利為 27 億美元。我們在出售澳洲消費者抵押貸款業務的過程中獲得了約 8,000 萬美元的停止營運收益，使淨利潤達到 28 億美元。

The next column is the impact of the GE Capital exit announcement as we reviewed with you last week. As we discussed, we took a $14 billion charge associated with classifying businesses and assets as held for sale and a $6 billion tax charge. We also took a $2.3 billion disc-ops charge principally reflecting the Real Estate transaction.

下一欄是關於通用電氣資本退出公告的影響，正如我們上週與您一起回顧的那樣。正如我們所討論的，我們收取了 140 億美元的費用，用於將企業和資產歸類為持有待售，並收取了 60 億美元的稅費。我們也承擔了 23 億美元的磁碟操作費用，主要反映房地產交易。

After adjusting first-quarter operations for these items, the reported amounts are shown in the third column. So $2.8 billion of operations net earnings offset by $16.4 billion of GE Capital charges works to the reported $13.6 billion net earnings loss for the first quarter, or loss of $1.35 a share.

調整第一季營運中的這些項目後，報告的金額顯示在第三列。因此，28 億美元的營運淨收益抵銷了 164 億美元的 GE Capital 費用，導致第一季淨收益虧損 136 億美元，即每股虧損 1.35 美元。

As we move through the execution of the plan we shared with you last week, there will be adjustments and we will continue to keep you updated on progress and the impact of those actions.

隨著我們執行上週與您分享的計劃，將會進行一些調整，我們將繼續向您通報進度和這些行動的影響。

Next on other items, I will -- we don't have a long list this quarter. We had $0.03 related to ongoing industrial, restructuring and other items as we continue to take actions to improve the cost structure of the Company. This was $422 million on a pretax basis with about one-third of that related to restructuring Oil and Gas. As we discussed before, we are taking aggressive actions to reduce our cost footprint given the challenging environment and Lorenzo and the team are laser focused on execution.

接下來是其他事項，本季我們沒有很長的清單。隨著我們繼續採取行動改善公司的成本結構，我們有 0.03 美元與正在進行的工業、重組和其他項目有關。以稅前計算，這一數字為 4.22 億美元，其中約三分之一與石油和天然氣重組有關。正如我們之前討論過的，鑑於充滿挑戰的環境，我們正在採取積極行動來減少我們的成本足跡，而 Lorenzo 和團隊則專注於執行。

For the year, we will continue to execute on restructuring projects with urgency. As you are aware, we are expecting some gains this year from Appliances and Signaling transactions. In the profile on the bottom of the page we have assumed an Appliance gain in the second quarter and a Signaling gain in the second half but both are subject to regulatory approval.

今年，我們將繼續緊急實施重組計畫。如您所知，我們預計今年家電和訊號交易將帶來一些收益。在頁面底部的概況中，我們假設第二季家電業務將獲得收益，下半年訊號業務將獲得收益，但這兩項業務均需獲得監管部門的批准。

Although there will be quarterly variability in gains and restructuring time, we expect gains to equal restructuring for the year on an EPS basis.

儘管收益和重組時間會因季度而異，但我們預計收益將與全年重組的每股收益相等。

Next I'll give an update on Power and Water. Orders for the quarter were $4.5 billion, were down 21% driven by equipment orders down 29% and services down 15%. Orders were lighter than expected due to financing delays and timing of agreements but not competitive losses. For example, we signed a deal for two 7F gas turbines this week that we expected to sign in the first quarter. Our framework for Wind and Thermal orders has not changed for the year. We expect second-quarter orders to be up double digits.

接下來我將介紹電力和水的最新情況。本季訂單金額為 45 億美元，下降 21%，其中設備訂單下降 29%，服務訂單下降 15%。訂單量低於預期，原因在於融資延遲和協議時間安排，而非競爭損失。例如，我們本週簽署了兩台 7F 燃氣渦輪機的協議，預計將在第一季簽署。我們的風能和熱能訂單框架今年沒有改變。我們預計第二季的訂單將成長兩位數。

In the first quarter we booked 21 gas turbines versus 31 a year ago and 376 wind turbines versus 422 turbines in the first quarter of 2014.

今年第一季度，我們預訂了 21 台燃氣渦輪機，而去年同期預訂了 31 台；2014 年第一季度，我們預訂了 376 颱風力渦輪機，而去年同期預訂了 422 台。

In terms of H-technology, we booked another order for a 9HA in Latin America and this brings the backlog to 16 units. In addition, we've been technically selected on an additional 37 units and are bidding an incremental 50 units beyond that.

在 H 技術方面，我們在拉丁美洲又獲得了 9HA 的訂單，這使積壓訂單達到 16 台。此外，我們在技術上已中標另外 37 個單位，並且正在競標另外 50 個單位。

Distributed Power equipment orders were down 53% driven by nine fewer turbines. We expect Distributed Power turbines orders to be roughly flat for the year. Gas engine orders were lower by 39% in the quarter driven by softer demand in gas compression. Overall, DP will continue to be soft for the year.

分散式電力設備訂單因渦輪機減少 9 台而下降了 53%。我們預計今年分散式發電渦輪機訂單將基本持平。由於氣體壓縮需求疲軟，本季燃氣引擎訂單下降了 39%。整體而言，今年DP將持續保持疲軟態勢。

Service orders were down 15% with PTS down 20% driven by no repeat of a large upgrade in Japan a year ago and lower new unit installs. AGP orders were 16, down one year-over-year. No change in outlook for AGPs or services for the total year.

由於日本未能重複去年的大規模升級以及新設備安裝量下降，服務訂單下降了 15%，PTS 下降了 20%。AGP訂單為16份，較去年同期減少1份。全年 AGP 或服務的前景沒有改變。

Revenue of $5.7 billion was higher by 4% but was up 9% ex-foreign exchange. Equipment revenues were up 1% on very strong thermal volume. We shipped 39 gas turbines versus 17 a year ago. That was partially offset by Distributed Power down 37% and Renewables down 30% on lower unit shipments of 15 and 174 respectively.

營收為 57 億美元，成長 4%，但扣除外匯因素則成長 9%。由於火電銷量強勁，設備收入成長了 1%。我們運送了 39 台燃氣渦輪機，而一年前只有 17 台。但分散式能源和再生能源的出貨量分別下降 37% 和 30%，分別下降 15 台和 174 台，這部分抵消了分散式能源和再生能源的下降。

Service revenues were higher by 7% driven by higher upgrades including AGP upgrades, 21 versus 17 a year ago.

服務收入成長了 7%，這得益於包括 AGP 升級在內的升級數量增加，今年共計 21 架次，而去年同期為 17 架次。

Operating profit of $871 million was down 2%, that is flat ex-foreign exchange driven by higher volume offset by negative productivity in supply chain and engineering associated with the H ramp and negative product mix due to lower distributed power. Value gap in the quarter was a positive $12 million. Op profit margins were down 90 basis points in the quarter.

營業利潤為 8.71 億美元，下降 2%，扣除外匯因素後持平，原因是銷量增加，但與 H 坡道相關的供應鍊和工程生產效率下降以及分佈式電力減少導致的產品組合下降相抵觸。本季的價值差距為正 1200 萬美元。本季營業利潤率下降了 90 個基點。

We remain on track with the outlook we provided and we expect 100 to 105 gas turbine orders and shipments this year with a good pipeline of activity. We still expect Wind shipments of around 3000 to 3200 turbines and AGP upgrades remain on track and Distributed Power will remain pressured throughout the year.

我們仍然按照我們之前給出的展望進行，我們預計今年燃氣渦輪機訂單和出貨量將達到 100 至 105 個，並且活動開展情況良好。我們仍然預計風電出貨量約為 3000 至 3200 台渦輪機，AGP 升級仍將保持正常進行，而分散式電力全年仍將面臨壓力。

Next I'll cover Oil and Gas. Oil and Gas orders of $4.3 billion were down 6% reported but up 2% organically. Equipment orders of $2.2 billion were down 10%, flat organically. Service orders were down 27% on weak North American activity and TMS orders were down 23% with no repeat of two large LNG orders we took in the first quarter of last year.

接下來我將介紹石油和天然氣。石油和天然氣訂單為 43 億美元，報告下降 6%，但有機成長 2%。設備訂單價值 22 億美元，下降 10%，有機持平。由於北美活動疲軟，服務訂單下降了 27%，TMS 訂單下降了 23%，與去年第一季我們接到的兩份大型液化天然氣訂單的情況不同。

It was still a decent orders quarter for TMS, which booked more than $700 million of new orders in the quarter.

對於 TMS 來說，這仍然是一個不錯的訂單季度，該公司本季的新訂單超過 7 億美元。

Subsea and Drilling orders were up 74% on large deals we booked in Ghana and Brazil. Service orders of $2.1 billion were down 3% but up 4% organically. Surface was lower by 21% and TMS was down 8% largely due to foreign exchange. Subsea was strong, up 21%. M&C was down 1% organically.

我們在加納和巴西簽訂的大宗海底和鑽井訂單增加了 74%。服務訂單為 21 億美元，下降 3%，但有機成長 4%。由於外匯影響，地面運輸量下降了 21%，TMS 下降了 8%。海底業務表現強勁，上漲 21%。M&C 有機下滑 1%。

Revenues of just under $4 billion were flat year-over-year organically and down 8% reported. Reported negative V% includes 7 points of foreign exchange and 1 point of disposition. Equipment revenues were down 13% with TMS down 9% reported but up 22% ex-foreign exchange and Subsea down 8% reported but up 6% ex exchange. M&C was down 8% organically in the quarter and service revenues were down 2% reported but up 4% organic with Surface down 23% and M&C up 11% organically.

有機收入略低於 40 億美元，與去年同期持平，報告收入下降 8%。報告的負 V% 包括 7 個外匯點和 1 個處置點。設備收入下降 13%，其中 TMS 報告下降 9%，但扣除外匯因素後上漲 22%，Subsea 報告下降 8%，但扣除外匯因素後上漲 6%。本季度，M&C 有機下降 8%，服務收入報告下降 2%，但有機成長 4%，其中 Surface 下降 23%，M&C 有機成長 11%。

Operating profit was up 11% organically, down 3% reported driven by negative FX offset by strong productivity on both base costs and product and service costs. Price was a $5 million drag in the first quarter but the business delivered positive value gap.

營業利潤有機成長 11%，報告下降 3%，受負面外匯影響，但基本成本和產品與服務成本的強勁生產力抵消了這一影響。第一季價格拖累了 500 萬美元，但業務實現了正價值差距。

Margins improved 50 basis points reported and were 120 basis points better ex the impact of exchange on earnings. This will be a challenging year in Oil and Gas but the team has been aggressive on remaking the cost structure of the business and we believe that we remain within the scenarios that supported our total year industrial guidance of $1.10 to $1.20 a share.

利潤率提高了 50 個基點，扣除匯率對收益的影響後，利潤率提高了 120 個基點。今年將是石油和天然氣行業充滿挑戰的一年，但團隊一直在積極重塑業務成本結構，我們相信，我們仍處於支持全年行業指導（每股 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元）的情景範圍內。

Next I'll cover Aviation. Air travel continues to be very robust. Global passenger kilometers grew 5.3% through February 2015 versus the same period last year with the Middle East up 8.8%, Asia-Pacific up 7.3%. Through February, freight traffic grew 7.5% compared with a year ago with very strong double-digit growth in the Middle East and Asia Pacific.

接下來我將介紹航空。航空旅行持續強勁。截至 2015 年 2 月，全球客運公里數較去年同期成長 5.3%，其中中東地區成長 8.8%，亞太地區成長 7.3%。截至 2 月份，貨運量較去年同期成長 7.5%，其中中東和亞太地區的貨運量實現了強勁的兩位數成長。

Orders in the quarter of $7.5 billion were up 36%. Equipment orders of $3.9 billion were up 64% on higher commercial engine orders of $3.3 billion, up over 2 times versus prior year. This was driven by $1.2 billion of GE9V engine orders, up 10 times versus last year from Kuwait Airlines, Emirates and includes a GE9X order for Cathay. GEnx received $360 million in orders, up 3 times and we also recorded $800 million of orders from LEAP, up 3 times.

本季訂單金額達 75 億美元，成長 36%。設備訂單金額達 39 億美元，年增 64%，其中商用引擎訂單金額達 33 億美元，較前一年增長逾兩倍。這是由科威特航空、阿聯酋航空 12 億美元的 GE9V 引擎訂單推動的，比去年增長了 10 倍，其中包括國泰航空的 GE9X 訂單。GEnx 獲得 3.6 億美元訂單，成長 3 倍，我們也從 LEAP 獲得 8 億美元訂單，成長 3 倍。

Our total win rate for the LEAP since program launch for Next-Gen narrowbody aircraft is 79%. Commercial engine backlog was up 35% year-over-year.

自從下一代窄體飛機計畫啟動以來，我們的 LEAP 總成功率為 79%。商用引擎積壓訂單年增35%。

Military equipment orders were down 61% driven by no repeat of two large orders from Sikorsky and Qatar Air Force from the first quarter of last year as expected. Service orders were up 14% on strong commercial spare parts, which were up 31% at $38.9 million a day and military spares were down 11%.

軍事裝備訂單下降了 61%，原因是西科斯基和卡達空軍的兩筆大訂單未能如預期的那樣重複去年第一季的訂單。由於商用備件需求強勁，服務訂單成長了 14%，商用備件需求成長了 31%，達到每天 3,890 萬美元，而軍用備件需求下降了 11%。

Revenues of $5.7 billion were down 2%. Equipment revenues were down 8% with commercial equipment revenue down 1% on lower GEnx shipments. We shipped 19 fewer units than last year, 51 versus 70, and 29 less units than our plan as a result of a supply chain disruption.

營收 57 億美元，下降 2%。設備收入下降 8%，其中商用設備收入因 GEnx 出貨量下降而下降 1%。由於供應鏈中斷，我們的出貨量比去年少了 19 台（去年為 70 台，今年為 51 台），比我們的計畫少了 29 台。

Military equipment revenue was down 32% on lower shipments and service revenue was up 4% with commercial spare parts up 28% and military services up 3%. Op profit was up 18% on very strong value gap, variable cost productivity and favorable GEnx mix, partially offset by lower volume and higher R&D. Margins improved 390 basis points in the quarter. The impact of the lower GEnx shipments improved the margin rate by about 90 basis points. This is net of some costs to remediate the disruption. We are working the issue and we expect to ship most of the delayed units in 2Q and be back on plan for the full year of 275 to 300 GEnx units.

由於出貨量下降，軍事裝備收入下降了 32%，服務收入增加了 4%，其中商用備件增加了 28%，軍事服務增加了 3%。由於巨大的價值差距、變動成本生產力和有利的 GEnx 產品組合，營業利潤增長了 18%，但銷量下降和研發費用增加部分抵消了這一增長。本季利潤率提高了 390 個基點。GEnx 出貨量下降的影響使利潤率提高了約 90 個基點。這是扣除補救中斷的部分成本後的資料。我們正在努力解決這個問題，預計第二季將運送大部分延遲的設備，並恢復全年 275 至 300 台 GEnx 設備的計畫。

Aviation had another strong quarter growing equipment and service backlog by 23% and 9% respectively. The business continues to execute on new technology introductions, service offerings and cost out. Aviation could perform better than we outlined at the December outlook meeting.

航空業又迎來了一個強勁的季度，設備和服務積壓分別成長了 23% 和 9%。該企業繼續執行新技術的引進、服務的提供和成本的降低。航空業的表現可能比我們在 12 月展望會議上概述的要好。

Next Healthcare. Orders of $4.2 billion were down 1% but up 4% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. We saw continued growth in the US, up 5%. Europe was down 4% but up 11% ex-FX. Japan was down 18%, down 6% ex-FX. The Middle East was down 43% driven by Saudi and China was down 4%.

下一步醫療保健。訂單額為 42 億美元，下降 1%，但若不計入外匯影響則成長 4%。我們看到美國繼續成長，成長了5%。歐洲股市下跌 4%，但扣除外匯因素則上漲 11%。日本股市下跌 18%，扣除匯率因素下跌 6%。受沙烏地阿拉伯影響，中東地區下跌了 43%，中國下跌了 4%。

Healthcare system orders were down 5%, flat excluding the impact of foreign exchange. US Imaging and Ultrasound was up 7% with strong growth in MR, up 41% in the quarter partially driven by the new PET/MR release in December. This was offset by softer orders in Japan, Russia and the Middle East.

醫療保健系統訂單下降5%，除去外匯影響，持平。美國影像和超音波部門成長了 7%，其中 MR 成長強勁，本季成長了 41%，部分原因是 12 月新 PET/MR 的發布。但日本、俄羅斯和中東地區的訂單減少抵消了這種影響。

Life Science orders were up 10%, up 17% excluding foreign exchange driven by strong bioprocess orders. This was offset with Core Imaging down 3% and services. Revenues of $4.1 billion were down 3% but up 2% ex-foreign exchange. Healthcare system revenues were down 6%, flat organically and Life Science revenues were up 4%. Operating profit was up 3% with 80 basis points of margin expansion driven by strong cost execution partially offset by lower price.

生命科學訂單成長 10%，不包括外匯因素則成長 17%，這主要得益於強勁的生物工藝訂單。但核心影像和服務業務的下降 3% 抵消了這一影響。營收為 41 億美元，下降 3%，但扣除外匯因素則成長 2%。醫療保健系統收入下降 6%，有機持平，生命科學收入成長 4%。營業利潤成長 3%，利潤率擴大 80 個基點，這得益於強勁的成本執行，但被較低的價格部分抵銷。

Looking forward we expect similar market dynamics. We believe we are gaining share in key modalities in the US and we expect the market to continue to improve. While China has slowed, we expect orders growth for the remainder of the year in China. Life Science growth will persist and the business team continues to execute on its cost out programs.

展望未來，我們預期市場動態類似。我們相信，我們在美國主要市場的份額正在不斷擴大，我們預計市場將繼續改善。儘管中國經濟放緩，但我們預計今年剩餘時間內中國訂單仍將成長。生命科學的成長將持續下去，業務團隊將繼續執行其成本削減計劃。

In Transportation, North American carloads were up 1.8% with intermodal traffic up 2.1%, which was impacted by the West Coast port strike. Commodities have seen broad-based increases with agriculture up 4.6% and chemicals and petroleum products up 3.2%. Coal volumes were down 2.5% in the quarter.

在交通運輸方面，受西岸港口罷工的影響，北美貨車裝載量上漲 1.8%，聯運量上漲 2.1%。大宗商品價格普遍上漲，其中農產品價格上漲 4.6%，化學品和石油產品價格上漲 3.2%。本季煤炭產量下降了 2.5%。

Transportation orders were down 38% with equipment orders down 56% and services were higher by 13%. Equipment orders were lower driven by locomotives, primarily due to not repeating the large South Africa deal we had in the first quarter of last year.

運輸訂單下降 38%，設備訂單下降 56%，服務訂單增加 13%。受機車影響，設備訂單減少，主要是因為我們沒有重複去年第一季與南非達成的大型交易。

Revenues in the quarter were up 7% driven by strong equipment growth. We shipped 215 locos in the quarter versus 178 a year earlier. Overall Mining continues to be soft, down 23%.

受設備強勁成長的推動，本季營收成長了 7%。本季我們運送了 215 輛機車，去年同期為 178 輛。整體採礦業持續疲軟，下降了 23%。

Operating profit in the quarter was up 11% on higher locomotive volume, material deflation and cost productivity. Margins in the quarter expanded by 70 basis points. We now have 16 preproduction Tier 4 units out with our customers running on the rails. They are performing in actual operating conditions as part of our validation process. We had about 1200 Tier 4 locos in backlog at the end of the first quarter of 2015 and we expect to ship about half of those this year.

由於機車產量增加、材料通貨緊縮和成本生產率提高，本季營業利潤增加了 11%。本季利潤率擴大了 70 個基點。目前，我們已有 16 台預生產 Tier 4 裝置投入客戶使用。作為我們驗證過程的一部分，它們在實際操作條件下運作。截至 2015 年第一季末，我們積壓了約 1200 輛 Tier 4 機車，預計今年將運送其中的一半。

In Energy Management, orders of $2.1 billion were down 3% and up 2% organically. Power Conversion orders were up 10% in the quarter. Industrial Solutions was up 4% and Digital Energy was down 38% from no repeat of a large domestic meter order from last year. Power Conversion saw strong growth in renewables vertical up 2 times on solar inverters and the marine vertical was up 15% on a large Canadian propulsion dynamic positioning deal in Canada, offset partially by softer Oil and Gas orders. Backlog for our Energy Management business grew 3%.

在能源管理領域，訂單金額為 21 億美元，年減 3%，有機成長 2%。本季電力轉換訂單成長了 10%。工業解決方案上漲 4%，而數位能源因去年沒有再次獲得大型家用電錶訂單而下跌 38%。電力轉換部門在再生能源垂直領域的成長強勁，太陽能逆變器成長了 2 倍，船舶垂直領域的成長得益於加拿大一項大型推進動態定位交易，成長了 15%，但石油和天然氣訂單的疲軟部分抵消了這一成長。我們的能源管理業務積壓訂單成長了 3%。

Revenues were up 1% and up 8% organically driven by foreign exchange with Power Conversion up 6%; Digital Energy and Industrial Systems were both about flat. Op profit was $28 million, up from $5 million last year on a reported basis. The business continues to benefit from restructuring with strong base cost productivity driven by SG&A reductions and positive value gap offset by unfavorable foreign exchange. Margin rates in the quarter were up 140 basis points. We expect program execution and margin rate improvement to continue throughout 2015.

營收成長 1%，其中外匯推動有機成長 8%，電力轉換成長 6%；數位能源和工業系統均基本持平。營業利潤為 2800 萬美元，據報告，高於去年的 500 萬美元。業務持續受惠於重組，銷售、一般及行政費用的減少以及不利的外匯匯率抵銷的正價值差距推動了強勁的基礎成本生產力。本季的保證金率上升了 140 個基點。我們預計該計劃的實施和利潤率的提高將在 2015 年全年持續下去。

Finally, Appliances and Lighting. Revenue in the quarter was up 5%. Appliance revenues were up 8% driven by strong volume. Industry core units were flat with retail down 1% and contract up 4%. The industry volume was well below the first quarter expectation of plus 8% due to the harsh weather across the US. We believe GE increases our share by 2 points in the first quarter.

最後，電器和照明。本季度營收成長了5%。受銷售強勁推動，家電收入上漲 8%。產業核心單位持平，零售量下降 1%，合約上漲 4%。由於美國各地惡劣的天氣，該行業銷量遠低於第一季預期的 8%。我們相信通用電氣在第一季的份額將增加 2 個百分點。

Lighting revenues were down 3% on lower traditional product demand, which was down 18%. This was partially offset by continued strong LED performance, which grew 76% in the quarter. LED now makes up 30% plus of Lighting revenues and that is up from 17% of Lighting revenues in the first quarter of 2014. Op profit in the quarter was $103 million.

由於傳統產品需求下降（下降 18%），照明收入下降 3%。這一成長被 LED 持續強勁的表現（本季成長了 76%）部分抵消。LED 目前佔照明收入的 30% 以上，高於 2014 年第一季的 17%。本季營業利潤為 1.03 億美元。

Now on GE Capital, before we start with the GE Capital results, I would just like to take a moment and highlight the incredible work done by Keith and the GE Capital team. Keith led an enormous and complicated effort in a very challenging window of time to get the Company to this very important strategic pivot. This is a transformational change for our Company that will create real value for investors long term.

現在談談通用電氣資本，在我們開始介紹通用電氣資本的表現之前，我想花一點時間強調 Keith 和通用電氣資本團隊所做的出色工作。在極具挑戰性的時期內，Keith 領導了一項巨大而複雜的努力，使公司實現了這個非常重要的策略轉折點。這是我們公司的轉型變革，將為投資者長期創造真正的價值。

As I have covered, the impact of last week's announcement is reflected in GE Capital's first-quarter reported financials. On the page we have provided a walk starting with the earnings from our vertical businesses which generated $352 million for the quarter. Operating earnings from the remainder of our businesses and continuing operations amounted to $1.1 billion, which was more than offset by a $14 billion day one accounting adjustments related to last week's announcement. Earnings from continuing operations amounted to a net loss of $12.5 billion.

正如我所報導的，上周公告的影響反映在通用電氣資本公司第一季的財務報告中。在該頁面上，我們首先介紹了垂直業務的收益，本季該業務的收益為 3.52 億美元。我們其餘業務和持續經營業務的營業利潤為 11 億美元，但這一數字被上周公告相關的 140 億美元第一天會計調整所抵消。持續經營收益淨虧損125億美元。

Discontinued operations generated additional losses of $2.2 billion, which reflect the charges associated with our Commercial Real Estate business. Overall, GE Capital reported a $14.7 billion loss including $6 billion of tax expenses. We ended the quarter with $303 billion of ENI, excluding liquidity.

終止經營業務產生了 22 億美元的額外損失，這反映了與我們的商業房地產業務相關的費用。總體而言，通用電氣資本報告虧損 147 億美元，其中包括 60 億美元的稅金。本季末，我們的 ENI 為 3,030 億美元（不包括流動性）。

Our liquidity levels remain strong and we ended the quarter at $76 billion including $14 billion attributable to Synchrony. Our commercial paper program remained at $25 billion and we had $8 billion of long-term debt issuance for the quarter. As discussed last week, we do not anticipate additional issuances over the next five years.

我們的流動水準依然強勁，本季末我們的流動性水準為 760 億美元，其中 140 億美元歸屬於 Synchrony。我們的商業票據計畫仍維持在 250 億美元，本季我們發行了 80 億美元的長期債務。正如上週所討論的，我們預計未來五年內不會再發行額外債券。

We expect GE Capital CP balance to decrease to $5 billion by the end of the year. Starting this quarter we are transitioning the capital accuracy reporting from Basel I to Basel III in line with industry practice. Our Basel III Tier 1 common ratio was 10.6% inclusive of the day one charges. We expect this ratio to improve as we dispose of risk-weighted assets over the course of the year.

我們預計，到今年年底，GE Capital CP 餘額將減少至 50 億美元。從本季開始，我們將根據行業慣例將資本準確性報告從巴塞爾協議 I 過渡到巴塞爾協議 III。我們的巴塞爾協議 III 一級普通股比率為 10.6%，包括第一天的費用。我們預計，隨著我們在今年內處置風險加權資產，這一比率將會改善。

As I mentioned last Friday, we will operate through the transition in a safe and sound manner working with our regulators in determining the appropriate capital level.

正如我上週五提到的，我們將以安全且穩健的方式完成過渡，並與監管機構合作確定適當的資本水準。

Going forward the team will be very focused on executing the portfolio transformation. As we discussed last week, we have signed deals on close to 50% of the planned ENI reduction for the year and we are receiving very strong inbound interest on many of our portfolios since the discussion last week. We are prioritizing the transaction in a way that allows us to maximize franchise value, and as I said last week, we will be very transparent as we execute through this process.

展望未來，團隊將高度重視投資組合轉型的實施。正如我們上週所討論的，我們已經簽署了今年計劃的 ENI 削減額度的近 50% 的協議，並且自上週討論以來，我們的許多投資組合都收到了非常強烈的關注。我們正在優先考慮交易，以便最大化特許經營價值，正如我上週所說，我們在執行這一過程時將非常透明。

Overall, Keith and the GE Capital team delivered a strong operational quarter in line with our prior guidance and are now fully focused on delivering on the portfolio transformation that we shared with you last week.

總體而言，Keith 和 GE Capital 團隊按照我們先前的指導實現了強勁的營運季度，現在他們完全專注於實現我們上週與您分享的投資組合轉型。

With that I will turn it back to Jeff.

說完這些，我就把話題轉回給傑夫。

Thanks, Jeff. We remain on track for a 2015 operating framework but we will adjust our guidance milestones to reflect last week's announcement on Capital.

謝謝，傑夫。我們仍在按照計劃執行 2015 年的營運框架，但我們將調整指導里程碑，以反映上周有關資本的公告。

Industrial EPS is on track for $1.10 to $1.20 and we are running our businesses to the high end of that range. We are generating solid organic growth and margin expansion; corporate costs are being well-managed with gains equal to restructuring, and Oil and Gas is performing to our expectations.

工業每股收益預計將達到 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元，而我們的業務正朝著這一範圍的高端發展。我們正在實現穩健的有機成長和利潤率擴張；企業成本管理良好，收益與重組相當，石油和天然氣的表現符合我們的預期。

We continue to invest in industrial growth. Between research and development, investment and planned equipment and information technology and the potential for bolt-on industrial M&A, we will invest $10 billion to $15 billion each year in our industrial growth. We can do this and still return significant capital to investors.

我們繼續投資於工業成長。在研發、投資、計畫設備、資訊科技以及附加工業併購的潛力方面，我們每年將投資 100 億至 150 億美元用於工業成長。我們可以做到這一點，並且仍然向投資者返還大量資本。

The GE Capital verticals are tracking to $0.15 per share and, as Jeff said, we are focused on the verticals and we will keep them top of mind. We have set a target of $90 billion in asset sales and this is part of our guidance. We already have approximately 50% announced and have a robust pipeline to achieve this by year end. Again, we will update this at EPG.

GE Capital 垂直產業的股價目前為每股 0.15 美元，正如 Jeff 所說，我們專注於垂直產業，並將它們放在首位。我們設定了 900 億美元的資產出售目標，這是我們指導的一部分。我們已經宣布了大約 50% 的目標，並且擁有強大的管道以在年底前實現這一目標。再次，我們將在 EPG 上更新此內容。

Free cash flow remains on track to $12 billion to $15 billion. Dispositions in CFOA are on track and we expect GE Capital to dividend between $500 million and $7 billion in line with what we talked about last week and we will update this as we go through the year.

自由現金流仍有望達到 120 億美元至 150 億美元。CFOA 的處置工作正在按計劃進行，我們預計 GE Capital 的股息將在 5 億至 70 億美元之間，與我們上週討論的一致，我們將在今年內更新這一情況。

We will continue to drive investor friendly capital allocation. The dividend remains a top priority. We are still expecting the Synchrony split to return $20 billion to you in the form of a share exchange and as you saw last week, our Board has authorized a $50 billion buyback based on the proceeds from the GE Capital sale.

我們將繼續推動有利於投資者的資本配置。股息仍然是重中之重。我們仍然預計 Synchrony 拆分將以換股的形式返還給您 200 億美元，正如您上週所看到的，我們的董事會已批准根據 GE Capital 出售所得進行 500 億美元的回購。

So between Synchrony, the buyback and dividends we can return $90 billion to investors over the next few years.

因此，透過 Synchrony、回購和股息，我們可以在未來幾年內向投資者返還 900 億美元。

The Company is executing well operationally and strategically. Our compensation plans have aligned us with investors and we expect to have a solid second quarter and total year.

該公司的營運和策略執行情況良好。我們的薪酬計畫與投資者保持一致，我們預計第二季和全年業績都將穩健。

Matt, now back to you for some questions.

馬特，現在回到你面前回答一些問題。

Great. Thanks, Jeff. I will now turn it over to the operator to open it up for questions.

偉大的。謝謝，傑夫。現在我將把時間交給操作員來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions). Scott Davis, Barclays.

（操作員指令）。巴克萊銀行的史考特·戴維斯。

I was intrigued by a couple of comments that you made but Jeff Bornstein, the comment you made on incoming interest into the asset sales. Give us a sense of -- I think the question really is, give us a sense of your availability to sell those assets quicker than you laid out in your timetable, meaning are the books out, do you have -- if the sovereign showed up tomorrow could you hand them the keys and a few months later it is you can get the deal done? Or is there some gating factors that could limit the timing?

我對您發表的幾條評論很感興趣，但傑夫·伯恩斯坦，您對資產出售的興趣發表了評論。讓我們了解一下——我認為真正的問題是，讓我們了解一下您是否有能力比您在時間表中列出的更快地出售這些資產，這意味著賬簿是否齊全，您是否有——如果主權國家明天出現，您能否將鑰匙交給他們，幾個月後您能否完成交易？或者是否存在一些可能限制時間的限制因素？

I would say Scott, the amount of inbound interest has been incredible in both nonbanks and banks, both domestic and international interest. So I think that we are buoyed by the demand that we see so far. It really depends on the platform and the type of transaction we are talking about and we are organized to be able to do this as quickly as possible. Our goal is to monetize these assets, these platforms as fast as we can. There will be some gating challenges on getting ourselves in a position to -- as you described -- to get all the books together, etc., etc. But we are going to go after this as fast as humanly possible and I think the positive point here is the level of interest is really quite incredible.

我想說，史考特，無論是非銀行機構還是銀行，無論是國內還是國際，對內的興趣都令人難以置信。所以我認為，迄今為止所看到的需求令我們感到振奮。這實際上取決於我們所討論的平台和交易類型，並且我們已組織好以便能夠盡快完成此事。我們的目標是盡快將這些資產、這些平台貨幣化。正如您所描述的，在將所有書籍整合到一起等過程中，我們會面臨一些關鍵挑戰。但我們將以最快的速度推進這一進程，我認為這裡的積極一點是人們的興趣程度確實令人難以置信。

Okay. That's good. And then Jeff Immelt, you made a comment in your prepared remarks about wanting to get to an efficient balance sheet, or something in that regard. And I hadn't really heard you mention it in those terms before. How do you think of an efficient industrial balance sheet? Is there some sort of a range of leverage, or some way to measure that?

好的。那挺好的。然後是傑夫·伊梅爾特，您在準備好的發言中提到了想要獲得有效的資產負債表或類似的東西。我以前確實沒有聽過你這樣提過這件事。您如何看待高效率的工業資產負債表？是否存在某種槓桿範圍，或某種衡量方法？

I think, Scott, in the near term I think you have to think about us as safe and secure and marching through this process with GE Capital and things like that. Over the long-term I think our desire is to have an industrial looking balance sheet and how fast that goes again depends on Jeff's answer earlier on GE Capital assets and things like that. But our goal is to have over time to have investors look at GE as an industrial company and have a balance sheet that lines up more or less with our peers in that space.

史考特，我認為，在短期內，你必須認為我們是安全的，並且能夠與通用電氣資本等公司一起順利完成這項進程。從長遠來看，我認為我們的願望是擁有工業化的資產負債表，而這一進程的速度取決於傑夫先前對通用電氣資本資產等問題的答案。但我們的目標是隨著時間的推移讓投資者將通用電氣視為工業公司，並使其資產負債表與該領域的同行大致一致。

Okay. And then last just a cleanup item. What impact on margins was currency in the quarter. Did you have a benefit from hedges in the margin improvement?

好的。最後只是清理項目。本季的貨幣對利​​潤率有何影響？您是否從對沖中獲益，從而提高了利潤率？

No, actually. FX was a drag on margins in the quarter. As I talked about in the industrial segment margin we had about $120 million FX drag and hedges were a very small offset to the total impact. We actually had negative impacts all in.

事實上不是。外匯影響了本季的利潤率。正如我在工業部門利潤中談到的那樣，我們有大約 1.2 億美元的外匯拖累，而對沖對整體影響的抵消作用非常小。事實上，我們總體上受到了負面影響。

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks, guys.

好的。非常有幫助。謝謝大家。

Steven Winoker, Bernstein.

史蒂文‧維諾克，伯恩斯坦。

Thanks and good morning. Can we go to that $1.10 to $1 framework. I heard you say that you are running the businesses to the high end of that range. Maybe an idea of what does that mean and also how much -- can you just remind us, how much of that is Alstom?

謝謝，早安。我們能否採用 1.10 美元到 1 美元的框架？我聽您說過，您經營的業務處於該範圍的高端。也許您可以想一想這意味著什麼，以及有多少——您能否提醒我們，其中有多少是阿爾斯通的？

Again Steve, the way to think about that is we have an AEIP plan, a compensation plan and that lines up with how the internal business plans work. So I think we talked to you guys, Steve, at the year-end meeting and at EPG about the comp plan we have the team to. So when you look at the AEIP plan that frames compensation for the leadership team, that is what I referred to and it's really the same comment I made in January about how we are running the place.

史蒂夫，再次思考這個問題的方式是，我們有一個 AEIP 計劃、一個薪酬計劃，並且它與內部業務計劃的運作方式相一致。所以我認為我們在年終會議和 EPG 上與你們討論過我們團隊的補償計劃，史蒂夫。因此，當您查看為領導團隊制定薪酬框架的 AEIP 計劃時，這就是我所指的，這與我在一月份對我們如何管理這個地方所發表的評論實際上是相同的。

I think with Alston, Steve, we are counting on $0.01 for the year, so not really much impact in 2015 and more so in 2016.

我認為，對於阿爾斯通、史蒂夫來說，我們預計今年的利潤為 0.01 美元，因此 2015 年的影響不會太大，2016 年的影響會更大。

So maybe just sticking on that then and maybe this is to Jeff Bornstein on this one. If we just walked our way from again this $0.31 and given the trending of Oil and Gas, just maybe -- I think having just a little challenge given the weakness we are seeing in other companies bringing down guidance in Oil and Gas and related areas. What gives you guys the confidence of getting to that over the next three quarters and a more than sequential second-half ramp and things like that?

所以也許只是堅持這一點，也許這是傑夫伯恩斯坦 (Jeff Bornstein) 的觀點。如果我們再次從 0.31 美元開始，並考慮到石油和天然氣的趨勢，也許 - 考慮到我們看到其他公司在石油和天然氣及相關領域的指導方面的疲軟，我認為這只是一個小小的挑戰。是什麼讓你們有信心在接下來的三個季度內實現這一目標，並在下半年取得比上一季更好的成長？

Listen, I think that the scenarios we share with you at year end we updated again in the first quarter call -- I'm sorry, in the first quarter on the fourth quarter call. We evaluated a number of different scenarios around Oil and Gas. As we communicated to you, all of those scenarios we felt were within the range for $1.10 or $1.20. We've got the team -- Lorenzo and the team are executing like crazy on a substantial cost plan. They are right on track, actually slightly ahead of schedule. They're going to take out close to $600 million of costs this year both base cost and products and service costs.

聽著，我認為我們在年底與您分享的情景我們在第一季電話會議上再次更新了——抱歉，在第一季度的第四季度電話會議上。我們評估了石油和天然氣領域的許多不同情境。正如我們與您溝通的那樣，我們認為所有這些情況都在 1.10 美元或 1.20 美元的範圍內。我們有團隊——洛倫佐和團隊正在瘋狂地執行一項重大成本計劃。他們正朝著正確的方向前進，實際上還稍微提前了一點。他們今年將削減近 6 億美元的成本，包括基本成本以及產品和服務成本。

So when we take a look at where we ended here in the first quarter with Oil and Gas and how we think about the balance in the next three quarters, and very importantly with all the restructuring that we are doing, the benefits of that largely in the second half of the year, we feel like today based on everything we know that those scenarios and that guidance we gave you remains intact.

因此，當我們回顧第一季石油和天然氣業務的收尾情況，以及我們如何考慮未來三個季度的平衡時，更重要的是，我們正在進行的所有重組，其好處主要體現在下半年，根據我們今天所了解的一切，我們感覺這些情況和我們給您的指導仍然完好無損。

Let me add just a little bit to what Jeff said. I think he framed this year well. I think at the quarter the guys are actually probably a little bit better than what we had anticipated but you see all the volatility in the market and this is going to be something we have to continue to evaluate quarter by quarter.

讓我對傑夫所說的話做一點補充。我認為他對今年的規劃很好。我認為本季度這些傢伙的表現實際上可能比我們預期的要好一些，但你會看到市場中的所有波動，這將是我們必須逐季度繼續評估的事情。

But at the same time I think one of the advantages we have at GE is we can look at other businesses that have the potential to do better and over the context of the Company, we have got a framework that we are confident in even if other scenarios in Oil and Gas take place. So I think that is one of the strengths of GE. You have seen the way Aviation got out of the gate and some businesses get a chance to provide some upside maybe during the year.

但同時，我認為通用電氣的優勢之一是，我們可以看到其他有潛力做得更好的業務，並且在公司背景下，即使石油和天然氣行業出現其他情況，我們也有一個充滿信心的框架。所以我認為這是通用電氣的優點之一。您已經看到航空業起步的方式，一些企業可能在今年內獲得一些獲利機會。

Okay. And then just lastly on this topic, the 1.4% order pricing negative order pricing in Oil and Gas again, that is really -- how should we think about that in terms -- are these additional -- is there any additional renegotiation or existing backlog happening, or is this new and where are you seeing the weakness on that front?

好的。最後關於這個主題，石油和天然氣行業 1.4% 的訂單定價負訂單定價，這真的是 - 我們應該如何看待這個問題 - 這些是額外的 - 是否有任何額外的重新談判或現有的積壓，或者這是新的，你在哪裡看到這方面的弱點？

Yes, so when you look at order pricing, Steve, that 1.4% is almost entirely associated with the Ghana subsidy order we took. So it's not broadly across the portfolio. We have not renegotiated any prices from existing backlog. So that's where we are today.

是的，所以當你查看訂單定價時，史蒂夫，那 1.4% 幾乎完全與我們接受的加納補貼訂單有關。因此它並不廣泛地涵蓋整個投資組合。我們尚未就現有積壓的任何價格重新進行協商。這就是我們今天的狀況。

Okay. I will hand it on. Thanks a lot.

好的。我會把它傳承下去。多謝。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Maybe I will let others ask questions on Oil and Gas. Let's focus a little bit elsewhere. As I look into 2016 and what about Renewables? And I guess I will touch on Oil and Gas, what about Subsea because the industry timing on Subsea suggests that orders will be very strong this year. But what does it mean for 2016 in Power and Water and Oil and Gas given the specific regulatory dynamic and industry specific dynamic in these two sub segments?

也許我會讓其他人問有關石油和天然氣的問題。讓我們把注意力稍微轉移到其他地方。展望 2016 年，再生能源的情況如何？我想我會談談石油和天然氣，那麼海底怎麼樣，因為海底產業的時機表明今年的訂單將非常強勁。但是，考慮到這兩個細分領域的具體監管動態和行業特定動態，這對 2016 年電力和水務以及石油和天然氣行業意味著什麼？

So I think with Renewables, again what I would say, Andrew, is we always think about the US in the context of the PTC and there is nothing we see today that indicates that the PTC is not going to get rolled over in some capacity. So that kind of keeps the US at a kind of let's say steady-state. And then when you look around the world, you see growth. I think if you look at Brazil, if you look at places in Europe, if you look at even Africa and Middle East, we see pretty good growth -- China -- we see pretty good growth in wind globally. So --

因此，我認為，對於再生能源，安德魯，我想說的是，我們總是在 PTC 的背景下考慮美國，而我們今天看到的任何跡像都表明 PTC 不會在某種程度上延續。這樣一來，美國就處於一種所謂的穩定狀態。然後當你環顧世界時，你會看到成長。我認為，如果你看看巴西、看看歐洲、看看非洲和中東，我們會看到相當不錯的成長——中國——我們看到全球風能產業也出現了相當不錯的成長。所以 -

I think we are thinking we will do another 3000 turbines is our current estimate in 2016 as well. There is a shift. It's going to be more international than domestic as we move forward, no question about that.

我認為我們預計在 2016 年還會再生產 3000 台渦輪機。有一個轉變。隨著我們不斷前進，我們的國際化程度將超過國內化程度，這是毫無疑問的。

Yes.

是的。

But roughly the same kind of volume.

但體積大致相同。

I think the way to think about Subsea is on the incoming order standpoint, each project is going to get a ton of scrutiny whether it is the Ghana project that we signed or Bonga in Nigeria or projects in Australia or things like that. But once a project is going, it is unlikely that it will be stopped. In other words, you already have fixed costs and when it gets into the production mode it is unlikely that it is going to slow down. So we still think Subsea in 2015 and 2016 are going to be okay within that context.

我認為思考海底項目的方式是從即將到來的訂單的角度出發，每個項目都將受到嚴格的審查，無論是我們簽署的加納項目還是尼日利亞的 Bonga 項目，還是澳大利亞的項目或類似的項目。但一旦一個專案開始實施，就不太可能停止。換句話說，您已經有固定成本，並且當進入生產模式時，它不太可能放緩。因此，我們仍然認為，在這樣的背景下，2015 年和 2016 年的海底開採將會不錯。

And just to follow-up a little bit shorter term looking to the second quarter you highlighted some delays in Power and Water and Aviation. So if these two segments recover actually into the second quarter, what does it imply for organic industrial growth in the second quarter?

為了跟進第二季的短期情況，您強調了電力、水利和航空業的一些延誤。那麼，如果這兩個領域在第二​​季度真正復甦，這對第二季度的有機工業成長意味著什麼？

Well I think at the moment here we have given you guidance for the year here. We expect organic growth will be 2% to 5% for the year. We were at 3% here in the first quarter. I think that is generally the trend we expect to be on throughout the year.

嗯，我想目前我們已經為您提供了今年的指導。我們預計今年的有機成長率將達到 2% 至 5%。第一季我們的成長率為 3%。我認為這是我們預計全年的總體趨勢。

But directionally that would imply that ex-Oil and Gas there should be some room for acceleration in the rest of the business, right?

但從方向上看，這意味著除石油和天然氣之外，其他業務應該有一定的加速空間，對嗎？

Again, we see those segments getting better in the second quarter but again we don't want to do organic revenue guidance quarter by quarter, Andrew. (multiple speakers). We are comfortable in the range and we will leave the rest to you.

再次，我們看到這些部分在第二季度會好轉，但我們不想逐季度進行有機收入預測，安德魯。（多位發言者）我們對此範圍感到滿意，剩下的就交給您了。

I tried. Thank you very much.

我試過。非常感謝。

Shannon O'Callaghan, UBS.

瑞銀的香農·奧卡拉漢（Shannon O'Callaghan）。

So maybe just on the equipment margin improvement, 120 basis points -- pretty impressive. It looks like some benefit from mix in the quarter. As we go forward assuming you can't count on that mix every quarter, value gap, cost productivity and some of those things Jeff Bornstein and Dan Heintzelman are working on, does that ramp as quickly as 2Q, 3Q and maybe just a little expectation on how you see that equipment margin playing out through the year?

因此，也許僅從設備利潤率的提高來看，120 個基點就相當令人印象深刻。本季的混合看起來帶來了一些好處。假設您不能每個季度都依賴這種組合、價值差距、成本生產率以及 Jeff Bornstein 和 Dan Heintzelman 正在研究的一些事情，那麼這些組合是否會像第二季度、第三季度那樣快速增長，或者只是您對設備利潤率在全年如何表現有一點預期？

So we expect that the initiatives that the teams have going and that Dan and I are working with the businesses on will gain momentum as we move throughout the year. As you saw on Jeff's page when he walked through the margins, we had 60 basis points of mix. I think what we talked about at year end when we talked about the year was mix that probably wanted to be -- or hopefully would be something more neutral. So I would expect us to do -- to gain momentum on the cost line, in the product service cost line and we will see were mix plays out but I would assume for the year that mix will be roughly neutral.

因此，我們預計，隨著全年的發展，團隊正在實施的計劃以及丹和我與企業合作實施的計劃將會獲得發展動力。正如您在 Jeff 的頁面上看到的那樣，當他走過邊緣時，我們有 60 個基點的混合。我認為，當我們在年底談論這一年時，我們談論的是混合，可能希望是 - 或希望是更中性的東西。因此，我希望我們能夠在成本線上、產品服務成本線上獲得動力，我們將看到組合發揮作用，但我認為今年的組合將大致保持中性。

And any segments so far as you are attacking that cost structure, any segments that you are particularly encouraged by the opportunity you have seen?

就您攻擊的成本結構而言，有哪些部分讓您因看到的機會而特別受到鼓舞？

I think every single one of these businesses have enormous opportunity. When you look at the first quarter results, particularly around equipment margins, just about every business had improvement with the exception of Power and Water and Oil and Gas. So I think it is not unique to any one business. Every one of these businesses has an enormous opportunity to get product and service cost at another level.

我認為每個企業都蘊藏著巨大的機會。當你查看第一季的業績時，特別是設備利潤率，除了電力和水務以及石油和天然氣之外，幾乎所有業務都有所改善。所以我認為這並不是任何一個企業獨有的。所有這些企業都有巨大的機會將產品和服務成本提升到一個新的水平。

Okay. And then just maybe on Alstom, Jeff Immelt, you mentioned some of the difficult trends in the market that Alstom would be facing that you are also seeing, obviously. Can you still get to the plan there even if the markets are a little tougher? Any update in terms of the regulatory process and how some of the concerns of the European Commission around heavy-duty gas turbine concentration might be remedied?

好的。然後也許就阿爾斯通而言，傑夫·伊梅爾特，您提到了阿爾斯通將面臨的一些市場困難趨勢，顯然您也看到了這些趨勢。即使市場情勢稍微嚴峻，你還能繼續執行計畫嗎？監管流程有什麼最新進展嗎？歐盟委員會對重型燃氣渦輪機濃度的擔憂如何解決？

Yes, I would say -- let me answer the second piece first, Shannon. I would say there's nothing really that has been a big surprise as we go through this, so we always thought that there would be a second request or that process would take until this summer and so I would say so far nothing really is a surprise.

是的，我想說──讓我先回答第二部分，香農。我想說，在我們經歷這一切時，沒有什麼真正令人驚訝的事情，所以我們一直認為會有第二個請求，或者這個過程要到今年夏天才能完成，所以我想說到目前為止，沒有什麼真正令人驚訝的事情。

I think on the financials, we still look for high teens return and $0.16 accretion in 2016, so we still feel that is achievable and synergies are quite robust and we like that.

我認為從財務角度來看，我們仍然期待 2016 年實現高雙位數回報和 0.16 美元的成長，因此我們仍然認為這是可以實現的，而且協同效應相當強勁，我們對此感到滿意。

And the last thing I would say is look, at the end of the day just like every deal, we have always reserve as we do these transactions that we will only do deals that are investor friendly and that achieve good returns. And so I think we have established that in this case and I think we are optimistic about how Alstom fits with GE.

最後我想說的是，就像每一筆交易一樣，我們在進行這些交易時始終會保留意見，我們只會進行對投資者有利且能帶來良好回報的交易。因此，我認為我們已經在這種情況下建立了這種關係，我認為我們對阿爾斯通與通用電氣的契合度持樂觀態度。

Julian Mitchell, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的朱利安米切爾。

Just a question on Power and Water. The services orders were down a decent amount, sales though were up. So maybe give a little bit of color around what is going on in the Thermal Services business in particular by region because it does seem as if the orders are softer, AGP as well, and sales are still okay.

我只是想問一下關於電力和水的問題。服務訂單大幅下降，但銷售額卻上升。因此，也許可以稍微介紹一下熱力服務業務的現狀，特別是按地區劃分的現狀，因為看起來訂單確實比較疲軟，AGP 也是如此，但銷售額仍然還可以。

So Julian, I would start with orders were soft year-over-year largely because we had a very large upgrade in Japan last year that we just didn't repeat this year. Secondly, the number of new unit installs that the services business worked on in the quarter were fewer year-over-year. So that is most of what we saw in softness in Power Gen Services. AGP is about flat. We told you we think we would do about 100 for the year. We will do 100 for the year. I don't think we are changing any of the outlook there. So I don't think there is a broad theme here even geographically around Power Gen Services.

朱利安，首先我想說的是，訂單量同比下降主要是因為我們去年在日本進行了非常大的升級，但今年沒有重複。其次，本季服務業務的新安裝數量較去年同期減少。這就是我們在發電服務領域看到的大部分疲軟表現。AGP 基本持平。我們告訴過你我們認為我們今年會做大約 100 個。我們今年將完成 100 個。我認為我們不會改變那裡的任何觀點。因此，我認為即使從地理上講圍繞發電服務，這裡也沒有一個廣泛的主題。

Barbara Noverini, Morningstar.

芭芭拉‧諾韋里尼，晨星公司。

So is predictivity growth tracking your expectations since you spoke about your plans back in the fall? And can you talk about which of your operating segments are driving the most demand for predictive analytic solutions this year?

那麼，自從您在秋季談到您的計劃以來，預測成長是否符合您的預期？您能否談談今年哪些營運部門對預測分析解決方案的需求最大？

So we see again I would say 30% to 40% growth pretty consistently across the business in software and predictivity. I just had a review with all the businesses last week and so there is a variety of different initiatives. I would say clearly the power and power upgrade, things like power up on the wind turbine side, we've got 10 installs but really another 100 behind that that is quite exciting.

因此，我們再次看到，整個軟體和預測業務的成長率相當穩定，達到 30% 到 40%。我上週剛對所有企業進行了審查，因此有各種不同的舉措。我想明確地說，電力和電力升級，例如風力渦輪機方面的電力提升，我們已經安裝了 10 個，但實際上後面還有 100 個，這非常令人興奮。

As I mentioned, the rail business has got an expectation to grow orders about 50% for the year, so we're seeing both from a software and things like movement planner side growing.

正如我所提到的，鐵路業務預計今年的訂單將成長約 50%，因此我們看到軟體和交通規劃等方面都在成長。

The radiology IT piece is up 13% in terms of new bookings in the quarter, so some pretty good activity there. We've kind of launched what we call asset performance management, APM, in Oil and Gas, so we are seeing an original service funnel in that activity. So I would say macro kind of in the 30% to 40% range with strong double digits in each business as we look at software and predictivity for the year.

本季放射科 IT 部門的新訂單量增加了 13%，因此該部門的活動相當不錯。我們在石油和天然氣領域推出了所謂的資產績效管理 (APM)，因此我們在活動中看到了原始的服務管道。因此，當我們考慮今年的軟體和預測時，我認為宏觀經濟將在 30% 到 40% 的範圍內，每個業務都將實現強勁的兩位數成長。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 Deane Dray

A couple of questions on the Aviation side, that spares number being up 31% really jumps out. Do you see changes in airline behavior? Is this coming through because of lower fuel and how sustainable is this through 2015?

關於航空方面的幾個問題，備件數量上漲 31% 確實引人注目。您發現航空公司的行為改變了嗎？這是因為燃料價格低廉嗎？這種現像在 2015 年能持續多久？

Well, you heard the revenue -- the volume numbers are pretty good. Revenue passenger miles are very, very strong. There is no question that most of the forecasts are that the aviation industry globally -- probably having its most profitable year in history this year. I think IADA is estimating almost $25 billion of profit. And the airlines are no question stocking inventory. You will recall that in 2012 there was a really large destocking that went on and since that destocking in 2012, spares have improved each of the last couple of years.

嗯，您聽到了收入——數量數字相當不錯。乘客里程收入非常非常可觀。毫無疑問，大多數預測都認為，全球航空業今年可能迎來史上最賺錢的一年。我認為 IADA 估計利潤接近 250 億美元。航空公司毫無疑問正在儲備庫存。您會記得，2012 年曾出現過大規模的去庫存現象，自 2012 年去庫存以來，過去幾年備件狀況都有所改善。

So it may be that the airlines based on the profitability of operations are more aggressively replenishing some of that destocking that happened a few years ago. But very strong.

因此，航空公司可能會根據營運獲利能力，更積極地補充幾年前去庫存的部分。但非常強。

Now we don't expect that rate of 31% to persist for the year. I think we talked about double digits and we're probably talking about mid double digits, midteens maybe. But it's not going to be 31% for the year.

現在我們預計 31% 的成長率不會持續到今年。我想我們討論的是兩位數，我們可能正在討論中等兩位數，也許是十五六位數。但全年的成長率不會達到 31%。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague），垂直研究公司。

Just wanted to circle back around to Alstom. Given that there was kind of such an abrupt change in strategy around Capital and you are achieving kind of your business mix goal kind of through subtraction largely, how do you actually feel about Alstom here? Is that really the right asset? Is there a way to back out of that if the EU is a little too demanding?

我只是想回到阿爾斯通。鑑於資本策略發生如此突然的變化，而且您主要透過減法來實現業務組合目標，您對阿爾斯通有何看法？這真的是正確的資產嗎？如果歐盟的要求太高，有什麼辦法可以退出嗎？

I would take that in two pieces. I would say the premise for the deal, Jeff, is as relevant today as it has been in the past, which is very complementary products, opportunity to drive excellent synergies, good return on investments. And we feel at -- 4 times EBITDA post synergies is a pretty attractive entry point into an investment like that, so high double digits returns in a market we really know.

我會把它分成兩個部分。傑夫，我想說，這筆交易的前提在今天和過去一樣重要，即產品高度互補、有機會實現卓越的協同效應、獲得良好的投資回報。我們認為——協同效應後的 4 倍 EBITDA 對於此類投資來說是一個非常有吸引力的切入點，因此在我們真正了解的市場中可以獲得高兩位數的回報。

And then I think just like -- I would back up and say the Company has gotten probably 100 deals through Brussels in the past decade, something like that, so I think we know how to approach this and know how to get these things done. But just like every other deal we've ever done, if this one ever would become unattractive, we wouldn't do it. So that's no different than any other transaction we have ever done as a Company.

然後我想就像——我會回顧並說公司在過去十年中通過布魯塞爾達成了大約 100 筆交易，諸如此類，所以我認為我們知道如何處理這個問題並知道如何完成這些事情。但就像我們做過的其他交易一樣，如果這筆交易變得沒有吸引力，我們就不會這麼做。這與我們作為公司所做的任何其他交易沒有什麼不同。

Robert McCarthy, Stifel.

羅伯特·麥卡錫（Robert McCarthy），Stifel。

It looks like we've reached the lightning round of the call so I've got one question. I'll make it count. In any event, just in terms of the timing of the divestiture of a large part of these GE Capital assets, obviously the inbound [call] volumes are very encouraging but at the end of the day given the size, scope and nature of a lot of these businesses, you are going to be dealing probably with a lot of large, SIFI-like institutions. How do you reconcile the need for speed killing in terms of getting to these divestitures versus getting the right price? And how are you thinking about those decisions and do you think the timeline is practical?

看起來我們已經進入了電話會議的閃電環節，所以我有一個問題。我會讓它有意義。無論如何，僅從剝離大部分通用電氣資本資產的時機來看，顯然來電數量非常令人鼓舞，但最終考慮到這些業務的規模、範圍和性質，你可能會與許多大型、類似系統重要性金融機構的機構打交道。在實現這些資產剝離的過程中，您如何平衡快速剝離的需要和獲得合適的價格？您如何看待這些決定？您認為這個時間表是否切實可行？

Well, I think that the plan that Keith laid out with all of you last week -- we laid out a plan that spanned 2 1/2 years here roughly. But that we thought that the bulk of this work would be done by the end of 2016. Now we're going to try to outperform that, there is no question. I think that when we think about the risks associated with this, including price and value, speed is the single biggest mitigant. We have a market today that is incredibly receptive to these kinds of assets and so we need to be able to capitalize on that.

嗯，我認為 Keith 上週與大家一起制定的計劃——我們制定了一個大約兩年半的計劃。但我們認為大部分工作將在 2016 年底完成。現在我們將努力超越這一點，這是毫無疑問的。我認為，當我們考慮與此相關的風險（包括價格和價值）時，速度是最大的緩解因素。我們今天的市場對這類資產的接受度極高，因此我們需要能夠利用這一點。

There is no question we've got to balance from an execution standpoint the nature of the buyer and the size of the transaction to the extent that we are relying on maybe a back-end regulatory approval by the buyer with doing smaller transactions that maybe, maybe not, may be better from a price perspective than doing several large big bulk deals.

毫無疑問，從執行的角度來看，我們必須在買方的性質和交易規模之間取得平衡，因為我們可能依賴買方的後端監管批准，而進行較小的交易從價格角度來看可能比進行幾筆大型批量交易更好。

But I think my guess is that Keith and the team will run almost a parallel process there where we will evaluate on both tracks, platform by platform, portfolio by portfolio the level of interest there versus a couple, several maybe, much larger deals that try to sweep up many of those platforms simultaneously.

但我認為，我的猜測是，基斯和他的團隊將在那裡運行一個幾乎平行的過程，我們將在兩個軌道上逐個平台、逐個投資組合地評估那裡的興趣程度，而不是同時進行幾個甚至幾個更大的交易，試圖席捲許多平台。

So we are completely aware of exactly what you are asking and we have a process and we will make sure that we evaluate in those lights, but speed is the key.

因此，我們完全清楚您要求的是什麼，我們有一個流程，我們將確保從這些角度進行評估，但速度是關鍵。

Rob, I just want to say that the lifetime achievement award winner, JoAnna Morris, is working the phones this morning, so don't blame Jeff Bornstein or me for any of this activity. And I want to echo just what Jeff Bornstein said, which is you've got to think of each one of these assets having multiple options for what we do. So it's not like for any one of these there's only going to be one game plan. There is going to be multiple for every platform.

羅布，我只想說，終身成就獎得主喬安娜莫里斯今天早上正在打電話，所以不要因為這件事責怪傑夫伯恩斯坦或我。我想重複傑夫·伯恩斯坦 (Jeff Bornstein) 說過的話，那就是你必須考慮到，每一項資產都有多種可供我們選擇的方案。因此，對於其中任何一個，都不會只有一個遊戲計劃。每個平台都會有多個。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

So just to be clear, is the Oil and Gas guidance -- what is that now for the year? I'm not sure there was like an explicit comment on Oil and Gas. And then if you could just opine on the -- a little more clarity around what happened with the Aviation supply chain? There has definitely been a lot of noise from maybe sub suppliers and stuff like that around that supply chain, so just curious as to how you guys are fitting into that puzzle?

因此，需要明確的是，今年的石油和天然氣指引價格是多少？我不確定是否有關於石油和天然氣的明確評論。然後，如果您能就航空供應鏈方面發生的事情發表意見，請提供更清晰的解釋？圍繞著該供應鏈，可能存在來自次級供應商和類似機構的大量噪音，所以我很好奇你們是如何解決這一難題的？

We didn't change anything on our guidance on Oil and Gas, Steve. So I think what we said is down 0% to 5%, probably closer to 5%. We evaluated scenarios beyond 5%. All of those were considered in the guidance we gave you $1.10 to $1.20. We've got the team executing to a plan that supports the $1.10 to $1.20. As Jeff talked about, he has incented the team and our targets internally on the higher end of that range, not the lower end of that range. So no change to anything we've shared with you in the two calls previous to this.

史蒂夫，我們對石油和天然氣的指導沒有做出任何改變。所以我認為我們所說的下降幅度是 0% 到 5%，可能更接近 5%。我們對 5% 以上的情境進行了評估。我們給您的指導價為 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元，其中考慮了所有這些因素。我們的團隊正在執行一項支援 1.10 美元到 1.20 美元的計劃。正如傑夫所說，他激勵團隊和我們的內部目標處於該範圍的高端，而不是該範圍的低端。因此，我們在之前的兩次電話會議中與您分享的任何內容都沒有變化。

And then I would say, Steve, the production is ramping in 2Q and getting back on schedule and no real update other than what Jeff Bornstein said on the call.

然後我想說，史蒂夫，產量在第二季度正在增加，並恢復到計劃，除了傑夫伯恩斯坦在電話中所說的之外，沒有其他真正的更新。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

The first question -- I guess first and only question is really on the order of priority on the asset sales. Can you just discuss a little bit both on CLL and Consumer? And I guess specifically as it relates to US versus international, how you are thinking about the order of priority because I would imagine that given your goal to de-designate the non-bank SIFI I would imagine would be focused on the US assets. So any color there would be helpful.

第一個問題——我想第一個也是唯一的問題實際上是資產出售的優先順序。能否稍微討論一下 CLL 和消費者？我想，具體來說，當它與美國和國際相關時，您是如何考慮優先順序的，因為我認為，鑑於您取消非銀行 SIFI 指定的目標是，我認為重點將放在美國資產上。所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

So what Keith and the team are focused on first and foremost are those platforms where we might be more concerned about the franchise value itself where the people are a big component of the value creation process. So he has prioritized the focus based on that first.

因此，Keith 和團隊首先關注的是我們可能更關心特許經營價值本身的平台，其中人是價值創造過程的重要組成部分。因此，他首先將重點放在了這一點上。

You are correct, I would say the second order of priority would be we think in the US our ability to execute quickly and in scale is very favorable today and it is a big part of the discussion around the SIFI status. So having said that, it is not as though we are not going to do anything outside the US. We are going to be working the international platform in parallel here as well.

你說得對，我想說第二個優先事項是，我們認為在美國，我們今天快速、大規模執行的能力非常有利，這是圍繞 SIFI 地位討論的重要部分。話雖如此，但這並不意味著我們不會在美國以外採取任何行動。我們也將在這裡同時進行國際平台的工作。

Nigel Coe, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的奈傑爾·科伊。

So Jeff, I think you are going to win the prize for most bullish CEO this quarter. The $1.20, I just wanted to define what you mean by working towards the high end because right now the consensus is close to $1.10. So are you encouraged enough to raise our numbers and if so, do you see a path to 5% organic, or is it primarily midpoint to low point but offset by margin? So any comments there would be helpful.

所以傑夫，我認為你將贏得本季最樂觀的 CEO 獎。1.20 美元，我只是想定義一下你所說的努力達到高端是什麼意思，因為目前的共識是接近 1.10 美元。那麼，您是否有足夠的動力來提高我們的數字？如果是的話，您是否認為有達到 5% 有機成長的途徑，或者主要是中點到低點，但被利潤所抵消？因此任何評論都會有幫助。

Nigel, this is the exact same comment I made in January that just centers where the internal incentive plan sits. And the internal incentive plan sits towards the high end of the range and we were transparent about this at year end and we have been transparent about in January and I am transparent about it in April.

奈傑爾，這與我在一月份發表的評論完全相同，只是重點討論了內部激勵計劃的所在。內部激勵計劃處於高端，我們在年底對此是透明的，我們在一月份對此是透明的，我在四月份對此也是透明的。

Again, I think the value of a portfolio is that you've got a series of businesses that are doing well and you've got markets that are still volatile out there and we just want to see how that continues to evolve.

再說一次，我認為投資組合的價值在於你擁有一系列表現良好的企業，而你的市場仍然動盪，我們只是想看看這種情況如何繼續發展。

Like I said earlier, like Jeff said, we are pleased with where Oil and Gas finished in the first quarter but that market is extremely volatile right now and we just want to see how we continue to progress, what happens in the marketplace and let's see what happens.

就像我之前說的，就像傑夫說的，我們對石油和天然氣在第一季的表現感到滿意，但是現在市場極不穩定，我們只是想看看我們如何繼續進步，市場會發生什麼，讓我們看看會發生什麼。

There's plenty of chance to make other changes as the year goes through but let's see how we do quarter by quarter and beyond that look, I think we are -- we've got a good diversified set of businesses that are doing well in the industries they are in and we need to see how the world continues to evolve.

隨著時間的推移，我們有足夠的機會做出其他改變，但讓我們看看我們每季的表現如何，除此之外，我認為我們——我們擁有一系列多元化的業務，它們在各自的行業中表現良好，我們需要看看世界如何繼續發展。

Okay. A couple of announcements before we wrap up. Next Wednesday we will hold our annual shareholders' meeting in Oklahoma City. On May 20, Jeff will present at EPG and on June 16, we will hold our Paris Airshow Investor Meeting. As always we will be available later today to take your questions. Jeff?

好的。在我們結束之前有幾個公告。下週三我們將在俄克拉荷馬城舉行年度股東大會。5 月 20 日，Jeff 將在 EPG 發表演講，6 月 16 日，我們將舉行巴黎航展投資者會議。像往常一樣，我們將在今天晚些時候回答您的問題。傑夫？

Great, Matt. Thanks. Thanks, everybody. We announced a lot last week on really positioning the Company for the future. We are excited about that strategic change, that strategic pivot. The underlying performance of the Company both Industrial and GE Capital is per our expectations for the year. We continue to make progress. We are pleased by the execution of the team in the first quarter and we look forward to the rest of the year. Thanks, Matt.

太好了，馬特。謝謝。謝謝大家。我們上周宣布了很多關於公司未來定位的公告。我們對這項策略變化、策略支點感到興奮。公司工業和通用電氣資本今年的基本表現符合我們的預期。我們不斷取得進步。我們對團隊在第一季的表現感到滿意，並期待今年剩餘時間的表現。謝謝，馬特。

This concludes your conference call. Thank you for your participation today. You may now disconnect.

您的電話會議到此結束。感謝您今天的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。