Global Indemnity Group LLC (GBLI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kayla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Global indemnity Group 1st quarter 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, again, press the star in one. We will also be taking questions from the webcast. If you would like to submit a question, please use the Q&A button located at the bottom right of your webcast screen. I would now like to turn the call over to Evan Kasowitz, President of Belmont Holdings. You may begin.

Thank you, operator. Today's conference call is being recorded. GLI remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including without limitation, beliefs, expectations, or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved.

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10K and our other filings with the SEC for descriptions of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. Global indemnity Group LLC is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. J. Brown, chief executive of Global Indemnity.

Thank you, Evan. Good morning and thank you all for joining us for the GBLI first quarter update on our 2025 financial and operational results. Consistent with our past calls, I will first provide a few overview comments to put this quarter into context. Then our Chief Financial Officer Brian Riley. We'll expand on this quarter's financial figures for our insurance and investment operations. When I joined the company 2.5 years ago, we established a tactical plan to maximize long-term value for our shareholders. First, we assessed our product offerings and then spent a few months refocusing our insurance business around those core products that had consistently been underwritten profitably.

2023 was a realignment and transition year as we underwent the expense restructuring to match our slim down product offerings and designed a long-term competitive IT architecture. These efforts started to pay off in 2024 as we grew our core business consistent with our long-term goals. Hit our underwriting targets and deployed the first components of our proprietary underwriting and policy management software. Our insurance operations have been building momentum to consistently achieve both long-term growth and profitability metrics to create value for our shareholders. This momentum continued in the first quarter as our underlying core growth excluding terminated products was 16% and our underwriting results excluding the California wildfires slightly out passed last year at a combined ratio of 94.8.

I will come back to the wild wildfires in a few moments, which obviously depressed the first quarter completely having stabilized our operations to achieve appropriate growth in underwriting results for existing products, we completed our project manifest strategic restructuring at the end of 2024 to facilitate efficient and controlled rapid product expansion.

We anticipate that this expansion will occur over the next few years, fueled by a mixture of both organic growths incubated new teams and coupled with some focused purchases of existing distribution operations. As noted on our last call, we have begun to build out our agency and insurance services group with the hiring of Praveen Reddy, and he has now started to recruit a few key additional members to facilitate execution of this next stage of growth for GBLI.

Given the completion of the legal restructuring at the end of last year, this quarter marks the first time we will start to report on our numbers consistent with the new structure. As we have not yet added any new products or established new carrier relationships, the results in the short term will not show any meaningful benefits from our new structure. Brian will provide more detailed comments on both overall insurance operations and the first breakdown by the new segments. Turning to a couple of key performance indicators. Our rate increases and exposure growth continued to modestly exceed our estimates of social and price inflation trends. This will continue to be a key objective for 2025, given the ongoing uncertainty on the national price inflation front.

Also, our estimates for the prior year's lost results remain stable with virtually no difference between calendar and accident year numbers. Our reserve margins also remain solid, with no change in margin estimated at end from last year end. Our ongoing efforts to manage catastrophe exposures for our property segments experienced a bit of a disappointment with a $15 million catastrophic loss from the recent Los Angeles wildfires. Virtually all of our loss occurred in the Palisades fire with almost no loss in the Eaton fire. Given the industry impact of the LA fires, our result was modestly below our property share in California, albeit still very significant for a company of our size in a calendar quarter.

Although we expect an annual average of $17 million from all catastrophic losses given our current book of business in a calendar year, the sheer magnitude of this catastrophic loss in the Palisades fire exceeded the different models we have used for wildfires in the more moderate wildfire risk locations like the palisades and the LA Basin. Like most industry players, we are rethinking the validity of past severity model estimates for wildfire cat exposures and have already taken steps to further reduce our property exposures to wildfires. We continue to manage internal expenses a bit higher than our long-term targets in order to provide the best service for our customers.

As noted in the past quarters, we have maintained staff numbers just slightly below 2023 as we grow our business at double digit levels and keep expense growth at half of those growth rates. While the expense ratio for the existing business is trending in the right direction with a 2024 ratio of approximately 38%, corporate expenses associated with Project manifest and the build out of our agency and insurance services staff escalated that ratio by a couple of points in the first quarter. Although we expect to make additional investments in people over the next couple of years, we still have not lost sight of our long-term expense objective and will continue to work to get expense ratios down to 37% or lower.

In conclusion, our reported numbers clearly fell short of our targets, but the underlying trends remain strong and point to significant shareholder value growth going forward. I'm now turn the call over to Brian.

Thank you, Jay. The net loss of $4 million for the first quarter includes losses from California wildfires of $15.6 million pre-tax or $12.2 million after tax, excluding the California wildfire losses, net income would have been $8.2 million for the first quarter compared to $11.4 million in the same period last year including a $3.5 million of unrealized gains on the bond portfolio, comprehensive loss was $500,000 for the quarter.

Book value per share decreased from $49.98 at year end to $47.85 at March 301, driven by $500,000 of comprehensive loss, which equates to about $0.04, $5 million of dividends at $0.35 per share, with the remainder from stock compensation for the successful completion of Project Manifest. Let me add a little color on investments and underrun performance.

Starting with investments, investment income increased 2% to $14.8 million from a year ago. Cash flows and maturities of bonds totaling $685 million yielding 4.75% were reinvested in average yield of 4.86%. Current book yield on the fixed income portfolio is now 4.5%, with the duration of 1.3 years on March 31st, compared to 4.4% and a duration of 0.8 years on December 31, 2024. For further comparison, the book yield was 2.2% with a duration of 3.2 years on December 30, 2021, before the company took action in early 202 to sell longer dated securities and shortened duration. The average credit quality of the fixed portfolio remains at minus. As a result of that low duration, we have $700 million of investments maturing in the remainder of 2025. Overall, we are positioned, we are well positioned to take advantage of further opportunities to improve yield on the fixed income portfolio.

As for underwriting performance, in the first quarter of 25, we changed how we manage our segments. And we now have 3 segments 1, agency and insurance services, 2, Belmont Core, and 3, Belmont non-core. Our new segment, agency and Insurance Services consists of our three agencies that produce direct business, our technology company and our claim services company. The agency and insurance services segment generated income on affiliate agreements of $1.8 million before tax for the quarter.

Belmont Core previously referred to as Pener, and Belmont Noncore previously referred to as simply Noncore, makes up our insurance company operations. Since the Belmont non-core business is having a diminishing impact on overall results, I will comment on consolidated underwriting results. Currently a year loss was $10.3 million for the first quarter to the previously mentioned California wildfire losses of $15.6 million. Excluding California wildfires, underwriting income would have been in line with 24 at $5.3 million in 25. The consolidated a combined ratio was 111.5 and 25, excluding the wildfires. It was 94.8 compared to 94.9 and 24. The current next year expense ratio was 40 for 25 compared to 39.6% in 2024. Expenses remain elevated, as Jay mentioned here in the short run as we run off our non-core businesses and invest in our new agency operations.

Longer term, we expect improvement in the expense ratio targeting 37. As Jay mentioned, our calendar year results are virtually the same as our accident year results. Looking at prior year losses, book reserves remain solidly above current actuarial indications.

Turning to premiums, consolidated gross premiums increased 6% to $98.7 million in 25 compared to $93.5 million in 24. Excluding Terminated products, gross rate and premiums increased 16% to $98.4 million in 25 compared to $85 million in 2024. Let me add a little color at the divisional level, starting with wholesale commercial, which focuses on Main Street small business through 6% to $64.9 million compared to $61.1 million in 24. Excluding premium audit in these count your numbers, the underlying policy or premium trends are best indicator of growth was 14% and includes rate increases of 5%. Ensure tech, which consists of vacant express and collectibles, grew 20% to $15 million in 25 compared to $12.5 million in 24.

First, they can express through 23% and $10.9 million driven by organic growth from existing agents and agency appointments. Collectibles grew 12% to $4.1 million compared to $3.6 million and includes rate increases of 4%. Our assumed business gross written premiums grew to $10.9 million in 25 compared to $2.9 million in 24, resulting from eight new treaties added during 24 and one new treaty added here in 25. Specialty products, excluding terminated products was $7.6 million compared to $8.6 million in 24. We signed on 3 new products in 25 that are expected to contribute premiums starting in the second quarter of 25.

Despite the impacts of the California wildfires, our outlook for 2025 is very positive. We continue to expect premium growth of at least 10%. Our underwriting performance for the last three quarters of 25 is expected to improve compared to the same period in 24. Book reserves remain solidly above our actuarial indications. We believe premium pricing is continuing to track the loss inflation. Discretionary capital, which we consider the amount of consolidated equity in excess of that required to maintain the strongest levels with our rating agencies is $251 million on March 31st. And as they know it, this will support the efforts to invest in the growth of Panameric underwriters. Lastly, our investment portfolio is well positioned to invest in longer term, longer duration maturities and higher yields. Thank you. We will now take your questions.

At this time, I'd like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press start and the number one on your telephone keypad. You may also submit questions via the webcast. And our first question comes from the line of Ross Haberman with RLH Investments. Your line is open.

Morning, gentlemen, thanks for taking the call. Could you go back to the expense ratio you said? Do you think we can get down below 40 in the next 2 or 3 quarters or is that going to be a 2026 event.

Thank you. Let's see, I'd say longer, long term that 37 we targeted is into that 26, 27 range. I would expect this year to be in that 39 to 40 range this year.

And just 11 technical question. I saw the shares were up by roughly half a million shares, I guess you call it A2. Could you explain that? What, where did how did that come about and where were those issues?

Thank you.

Sure, there was 550,000 A2 shares issued to Fox Payne as a fee for their advice and console and implementation of Project Manifest at the end of last year. Those shares were issued in the first quarter, which is why they're preparing for the first time this quarter.

And the voting rights to that are similar to the more just give us why were they characterized as a 2 as opposed to just regular.

They have a different form in terms of their voting rights and dividend rights similar to A shares, but the difference is they only have value in the event there is a value creation greater than the existing book value at the time they were issued. And it's a little complicated, but essentially if the company were to be sold, you have to achieve, everybody else has to get paid the amount first and then A2 gets paid after that. So, it's a form of con it's kind of a kind of a combination of a restricted stock and an option and that you have to hit a certain target in order for the value to be created.

Thank you, wonderful. And our next question comes from the webcast from Joel Starka. Book value per share declined from $49.98 at December 31 to $47.85 at March 31st, primarily because you increased your common shares outstanding by 4.4% and one quarter by issuing stock compensation to the board Chairman's private equity firm. Can you explain why you're issuing stock to insiders rather than repurchasing stock when you're trading at roughly 60% of book value?

Sure, there's really, you're buried two different questions there. The decision to issue shares to Fox Payne was a result of a request under the contract that Fox Payne has with Global that a fee be paid for the creation and implementation of Project Manifest. Are Conflicts committee of the board evaluated that request and made a determination based with the assistance of outside legal and financial advice that that compensation for that advice would be paid in terms of the shares that are described in our 10K and in our 10Q, which are the A2 shares the 550,000.

In terms of the second part of the question, which is why aren't we buying back shares at 60% of book value, I think the reason for that, as we've said in the past, is our board currently feels that we can create more long-term value by investing in our operations, particularly in The new PA America underwriter operation, which is designed to create additional growth and profits for global indemnity, and that's a decision our board has made and has continued to reinforce at this point in time that that's where we're going to be investing funds going forward.

And a follow up for Joel's question, also, can you explain why you're retaining $251 million of excess capital when you're shrinking book value per share, earning an inadequate return on equity and trading at 60% of book value? By retaining that $251 million you're turning it into $151 million of market value. Wouldn't it be smarter to return that excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases or dividends, and wouldn't doing that improve your return on equity and your price to book value multiple? I assume that the board Chairman's private equity firm came up with a plan to deploy that access capital or that excess capital to generate a double digit return on equity.

And to think carefully about, I think I've answered most of that question in terms of how the board made its decision. I'm not going to argue with the alternatives of buying back shares at a huge discount to book value as potentially being a short term boost to shareholder value. But our board has made the decision that they are focused on long-term growth and not looking to pop the stock price in the short term. So they believe that that capital will be invested and will generate double digit returns over the long term.

And our next question is from Stefano Lattapai. Can we expect more or can we expect any more losses from the LA fire or have all been paid?

It hasn't all been paid, but the majority of it has been paid out, but our estimates are very solid at this point in time, so we don't expect any material changes in the numbers that we reported in the 1st quarter results.

And our next question is from Joey. Given the increased tariffs and a looming economic recession, how might these microeconomic factors impact claim volumes, underwriting profitability, and investment income for our portfolio, and what financial or operational strategy should we consider strengthening our resilience in the upcoming market?

I think there's two parts of the impact of the economics on our company. The first impact, which is really on the fluctuating. Interest rates that are dramatically fluctuating from day to day in some cases, but certainly from quarter to quarter, and it's the reason we have chosen as a company to remain extremely short duration in fixed income. We're definitely playing a defensive strategy waiting for the horizon to be clearer in terms of making long-term investments, and that's kind of on the investment side in terms of the short term impact on claims. The biggest thing that we worry about in economic depression or when economics turn down where the country is probably more watching carefully for fraud claims. And particularly any interruption in people making their premium payments that are due to us, but insurance is a long term gain, and the reality is it operates pretty much the same way over a long term, and we have to be able to handle the ups and downs of short term economic fluctuations.

And our next question comes from Michael O'Brien. What was the tangible book valued dilution for the 550,000 shares issued to Fox Payne on March 6th of 2025?

Yeah, the per share impact was 74.

And our next question is going to come from the line of Tom Kerr with Zach's research. Your line is open.

Good morning guys. Just a couple of quick financials. Most of my questions have been answered. On the SGNA, you said that was high because the project manifest. Does that maintain those levels throughout the year as you invest in that project?

No, the first time, the first quarter includes.

$2.7 million related to the A2 shares, that's not going to repeat, as related to those advisory fees, so no, I don't expect those to repeat at the same levels, but as Jay mentioned, we are, we will be investing, so there will be some elevated cost compared to last year.

The Investment in Project manifest happen in the other line items or is it based on the SGNA?

It's in that that's in the corporate expense line item.

Okay, for the expense ratio, right, okay.

Last question was, can you refresh your memory when the specialty products, Terminated business anniversaries and you have apples to apples comparison, when will that happen?

We had a very large program was terminated at year end and it was instantaneous and so essentially it'll be a full 12 month rollout and the apples and apples comparison will occur starting January next year.

Got it. I thought it was earlier than that. Sorry about that. I think that's all I have for today.

Now, you are correct. There were some earlier terminated programs that that go back a few years and then we're running off, but we did have the most significant one was one that got terminated at the end of last year.

Got it. That's what I was thinking of. Okay, thank you. That's all I have.

And your next question comes from the line of Chris A Koranda. If the shares issued to Fox Payne are some combination of restricted stock and the option in the event of a sale of the business, why is the book value calculated, including all of the A2 Fox Payne shares? Doesn't that understate the current book value?

That's a very good question, Brian. It's really an accounting question in terms of how it gets included in the book.

Value, Yeah, in the numerator the book value is only the dividend portion of the value, which is $2.6 million. The additional $8.3 million is the option value. So, that from an accounting perspective is not recognized as an expense. With the reciprocating increased equity until there's a change in control and as Jay mentioned, the only way that ultimately that the A2 is liquidated is upon a change of control event which is sell the company or a substantial part of the company.

And your next question comes from the line of Justin Sanders. Should we expect corporate expenses to trend back towards prior year levels post Q1 and the expense impact of Project manifest, or should we model it higher for the mention growth initiatives?

I think in terms of a run rate, it will trend back towards what we have spent historically, but to the extent we actually, which we expect we will make potentially purchasing some target operations, there will be expenses associated with those transactions and so they would be identified and separated out at the time of the transaction so we'd be able to. And essentially give you that number as it occurs, but as of right now there's nothing in our forecast that's planned for, so we will essentially trend back to our historical numbers for corporate expenses.

And there are no further questions at this time, Evan Kasowitz, I'll turn the call back over to you.

Thank you again. This concludes our 2025 1st quarter earnings call. We look forward to speaking with you again.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.