Global Indemnity Group LLC (GBLI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Global Indemnity Group 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。我叫凱特，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我謹歡迎大家參加 Global Indemnity Group 2024 年收益電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to Evan Kasowitz. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給 Evan Kasowitz。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Today's conference call is being recorded. GBLI's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expectations or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved.

謝謝您，接線生。今天的電話會議正在錄音。GBLI 的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。一些前瞻性陳述可以透過前瞻性詞語的使用來識別，包括但不限於信念、期望或估計。我們提醒您，此類前瞻性聲明不應被視為我們對我們所設想的未來計劃、估計或期望實際上將會實現的陳述。

Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for descriptions of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. Global Indemnity Group LLC is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

請參閱我們的 10-K 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，以了解我們經營的業務環境以及可能對我們的業績產生重大影響的重要因素。Global Indemnity Group LLC 不承擔任何義務，並明確否認有任何更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Jay Brown, Chief Executive of Global Indemnity.

現在我很高興將電話轉給全球賠償保險公司執行長傑伊布朗先生。

Thank you, Evan. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us for the GBLI year-end update on our 2024 financial and operational results. Consistent with our past calls, I will first provide a few overview comments on the ongoing results in our Penn-America segment. Given the fact that year-end numbers are consistent with prior quarters, I will keep my comments to a minimum. Then our Chief Financial Officer, Brian Riley, will expand on the 2024 financial highlights for both our insurance operations and the holding company.

謝謝你，埃文。早安，感謝大家參加 GBLI 2024 年財務與營運績效年終更新。與我們過去的電話會議一致，我將首先對賓州 - 美國部門的持續業績提供一些概述性評論。鑑於年終數據與前幾季一致，我將盡量少發表評論。然後，我們的財務長 Brian Riley 將詳細介紹我們的保險業務和控股公司的 2024 年財務亮點。

It gives me great pleasure to report that the GBLI team achieved solid insurance results consistent with the goals we had established for 2024. They continue building momentum to consistently hit the long-term metrics for revenue growth and underwriting profits that we had established to great value for our shareholders.

我很高興地報告，GBLI 團隊取得了穩健的保險業績，與我們為 2024 年設定的目標一致。他們繼續累積力量，不斷達到我們為股東創造巨大價值而製定的收入成長和承保利潤的長期指標。

Penn-America insurance revenue momentum, as measured by gross premium maintain the pattern we saw in the third quarter with total premium, excluding terminated programs, having finished up 12% through 2024. This was driven by the excellent 17% growth we achieved in InsurTech, coupled with 12% growth in our largest division, wholesale commercial. Our assumed reinsurance operation finished up 83% in its second full year of operations. We expect these segment-wide positive trends to continue in 2025.

以毛保費衡量，賓州美國保險收入動能維持了我們在第三季看到的模式，不包括終止計畫的總保費到 2024 年成長了 12%。這是由於我們在 InsurTech 領域取得了 17% 的優異成長，以及我們最大的部門商業批發取得了 12% 的成長。我們假設的再保險業務在營運的第二個完整年度成長了 83%。我們預計，整個行業的積極趨勢將在 2025 年持續下去。

Turning to insurance underwriting performance. I am very delighted to report a full year 94.4% underwriting result for the Penn-America segment. This result was modestly better than the 95.2% we recorded in 2023. The good results continue for both our casualty and property coverages. Importantly, our rate increases continue to modestly exceed our own estimates of inflation trends. This will continue to be a key objective for 2025, given the continued uncertainty on the national inflation front. Also, our estimates for the past year results remain stable with virtually no difference between calendar and accident year numbers. Our reserve margins remain solid with modest improvement recorded throughout the year.

談到保險承保業績。我很高興地報告賓州美國分部的全年承保業績達到 94.4%。這一結果略好於我們在 2023 年記錄的 95.2%。我們的意外險和財產險均持續取得良好業績。重要的是，我們的利率成長繼續略微超過我們自己對通膨趨勢的估計。鑑於全國通膨方面持續存在不確定性，這將繼續成為 2025 年的關鍵目標。此外，我們對過去一年結果的估計保持穩定，日曆年和事故年份的數字幾乎沒有差異。我們的儲備利潤率保持穩健，全年均有小幅提升。

The ongoing efforts to manage catastrophe exposures for our property segments continue to be reflected in our modest losses from catastrophes in 2024. Total cat losses for the full year were down roughly 26% from 2023. I will note that we experienced $15 million in catastrophic losses from the recent Los Angeles wildfires. Given the magnitude of the L.A. fires, this result was modestly below our property market share in California, albeit still significant for a company of our size. Although we expect an annual average of around $17 million from cat losses, given our current book of business, the sheer magnitude of this single loss exceeded the different models we have used for wildfires in the L.A. basin. Like most industry players, we are rethinking the validity of our past severity model estimates for wildfire cat exposures.

我們為管理房地產部門的災難風險而不斷做出的努力繼續反映在我們 2024 年因災難造成的損失較小。全年巨災損失總額較 2023 年下降約 26%。我要指出的是，最近洛杉磯野火給我們造成了 1500 萬美元的災難性損失。考慮到洛杉磯火災的規模，這一結果略低於我們在加州房地產市場的份額，但對於我們這樣規模的公司來說，這一結果仍然意義重大。雖然我們預計每年因火災造成的損失平均約為 1700 萬美元，但根據我們目前的業務狀況，這次單次損失的數額就超過了我們用於洛杉磯盆地野火的不同模型的損失數額。與大多數行業參與者一樣，我們正在重新考慮過去對野火貓暴露的嚴重程度模型估計的有效性。

We continue to manage internal expenses a bit higher than our long-term targets to provide the best service to our customers. As noted in past quarters, we have maintained Penn-America staff numbers just slightly below 2023 as we grow our business at double-digit levels and keep expense growth at roughly half of that growth rate. Our Penn-America expense ratio is starting to trend in the right direction, with the 2024 ratio of 38.1%, but we still have significant work to do in order to get this down to 37% or lower.

我們繼續將內部開支管理得略高於我們的長期目標，以便為客戶提供最好的服務。正如前幾季所指出的，隨著我們的業務以兩位數的速度成長，並將費用成長保持在該成長率的一半左右，我們將 Penn-America 的員工人數維持在略低於 2023 年的水平。我們的 Penn-America 費用率開始朝著正確的方向發展，2024 年的費用率為 38.1%，但我們仍有許多工作要做，才能將其降至 37% 或更低。

As noted last quarter, a key factor in growing our business is attaining outstanding underwriting results, achieving competitive expense levels and utilizing technology effectively across all dimensions. We have just completed the first full year of a multiyear effort to transform our technology platforms. transactions and information software and data storage. These investments are well underway with our transition to the cloud about 75% completed with the remaining migration to be completed in 2025. As I mentioned last quarter, the first transactional application went live in September and we are now processing all aspects of our wholesale commercial excess liability policies in the new technology environment.

正如上個季度所指出的，我們業務成長的一個關鍵因素是取得出色的承保業績、實現有競爭力的費用水平以及在各個方面有效利用技術。我們多年來致力於技術平台轉型，剛完成這項努力的第一年。交易和資訊軟體和資料儲存。這些投資正在順利進行中，我們向雲端的過渡已完成約 75%，剩餘的遷移將於 2025 年完成。正如我上個季度提到的，第一個交易應用程式於 9 月上線，我們現在正在新技術環境中處理批發商業超額責任保險政策的各個方面。

We recently added similar capabilities for special events and wholesale commercial and are on schedule to add transaction processing for all the remaining products for wholesale commercial this year. An additional module is in development, which is focused on our agents, underwriters and operations staff. They will receive an integrated underwriting workstation in the next few months to improve the time to handle referral business and service for our wholesale commercial agents.

我們最近為特殊活動和批發商業添加了類似的功能，並計劃今年為批發商業剩餘的所有產品添加交易處理。我們正在開發一個附加模組，主要針對我們的代理商、承銷商和營運人員。他們將在未來幾個月內收到一個綜合承保工作站，以改善為我們的批發商業代理處理轉介業務和服務的時間。

As a follow-up to my comments from last quarter, the decision to focus on the underwriting areas where we can excel has begun to pay dividends. We completed a legal and operational transformation that was announced in January labeled Project Manifest. One of the main objectives of this project was to enhance our ability to attract additional talent to complement our existing teams. These efforts will provide the expertise needed to accelerate our ability to use our growing excess capital in order to expand our product offerings for both existing and new customers.

作為對我上個季度評論的後續跟進，我們將重點關注我們能夠擅長的承保領域，這一決定已開始帶來回報。我們完成了一項法律和營運轉型，並於一月份宣布這項轉型，稱為「專案清單」。該計畫的主要目標之一是增強我們吸引更多人才來補充現有團隊的能力。這些努力將提供所需的專業知識，以加速我們利用不斷增長的過剩資本的能力，從而為現有客戶和新客戶提供更多的產品。

I am very, very pleased that we kicked off this talent expansion with the hiring of Praveen Reddy to head up Penn-American Underwriters LLC, which is comprised of all of our existing underwriting and service teams. Praveen joined us last week and has begun his efforts to rapidly expand our current product offerings. I am thankful that we have the support of the full Board and Fox Payne as our financial adviser to affect these structural changes which I personally believe will yield significant future results for our company. Equally important, I remain blessed to benefit from the superb efforts of all the managers and staff at Global. We are all looking forward to 2025 and beyond as we enhance and implement our tactical and strategic plans. Brian?

我非常高興，我們聘請 Praveen Reddy 來領導 Penn-American Underwriters LLC，啟動了這項人才擴張計劃，該公司由我們所有現有的承保和服務團隊組成。Praveen 上週加入我們，並開始致力於迅速擴大我們現有的產品供應。我很感激我們得到了全體董事會和福克斯佩恩作為我們的財務顧問的支持，以實施這些結構性變化，我個人認為這將為我們公司的未來帶來重大的成果。同樣重要的是，我很幸運能夠受益於 Global 全體管理人員和員工的出色努力。在加強和實施我們的戰術和戰略計劃的同時，我們都對 2025 年及以後充滿期待。布賴恩？

Thank you, Jay. My commentary will focus on full year results. Of course, we can answer any questions you may have on the fourth quarter numbers. Net income was $43.2 million compared to $25.4 million in 2023. The combination of net income and a $12 million increase in market value of the fixed income portfolio. Book value per share increased from $47.53 at year-end 2023 to $49.98 at December 31, including dividends paid in 2024 of $1.40 per share, return to shareholders was 8.1% for 2024.

謝謝你，傑伊。我的評論將集中於全年業績。當然，我們可以回答您有關第四季度數據的任何問題。淨收入為 4,320 萬美元，而 2023 年為 2,540 萬美元。淨收入與固定收益投資組合市值增加 1,200 萬美元的結合。每股帳面價值從 2023 年底的 47.53 美元增加到 12 月 31 日的 49.98 美元，其中包括 2024 年支付的每股 1.40 美元的股息，2024 年股東回報率為 8.1%。

For '24, both underwriting income and investment reforms began to contribute to the improvement in net income. Starting with investments. Investment income increased 13% to $62.4 million from a year ago. Actions taken since early '22 to sell longer-dated securities and short duration and translated into much higher current book yields. Cash flows and maturities of fixed income securities of $1.1 billion, yielding 4.36% were reinvested at an average yield of 4.87%. Current full yield on the fixed income portfolio is down 4.4% with a duration of 0.8 years at December 31, 2024. Comparatively, at December 31, 2023, book yield was 4% with a duration of 1.1 years. At the end of December '22, book yield was 3.5% with a duration of 1.7 years. And at December 31, 2021, book yield was 2.2% with a duration of 3.2 years.

對於'24年，承保收入和投資改革都開始促進淨收入的提高。從投資開始。投資收入較上年同期成長13%至6,240萬美元。自 22 年初以來採取的行動，出售較長期證券和短期證券，並轉化為更高的當前帳面收益率。11 億美元的固定收益證券的現金流量和到期日，收益率為 4.36%，以 4.87% 的平均收益率進行再投資。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，固定收益投資組合的當前總收益率下降 4.4%，期限為 0.8 年。相較之下，截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，帳面收益率為 4%，期限為 1.1 年。截至22年12月底，帳面收益率為3.5%，期限為1.7年。截至2021年12月31日，帳面收益率為2.2%，期限為3.2年。

The average credit quality of the fixed income portfolio remains at AA minus. As a result of the low duration, we have $1 billion of investments maturing in 2025. We expect that a significant amount of those maturities to be reinvested on longer matured, ensuring fixed income investments to improve returns. Through February '25, approximately $320 million of the portfolio was reinvested in 5.2%, consisting of 2/3 in high-quality corporates and structured securities. We expect that this strategy will increase duration to about 1.25 years by the end of the first quarter of '25.

固定收益組合的平均信用品質仍為AA-。由於期限較短，我們有 10 億美元的投資將於 2025 年到期。我們預計，其中很大一部分到期債券將再投資於期限較長的債券，確保固定收益投資提高回報。截至 25 年 2 月，該投資組合中約有 3.2 億美元被重新投資於 5.2%，其中三分之二投資於優質公司和結構性證券。我們預計，到 2025 年第一季末，這項策略的期限將延長至約 1.25 年。

Now let's move to underwriting performance for '24 we continue to see good results as the current accident year consolidated underwriting income was $18.8 million compared to $14.3 million in 2023. This was driven by a consolidated accident year combined ratio of 95.4% in 2024 compared to 97.3% in '23. The improvement in the current extra underwriting income is due to the strong performance of our core business, Penn-America. Penn-America's acting year underwriting income was $22.1 million in '24 compared to $18.5 million in '23. As Jay noted, Penn-America's accident year combined ratio improved to 94.4% in '24 compared to 95.2% in '23.

現在讓我們來看看24年的承保業績，我們繼續看到良好的結果，因為當前事故年度的綜合承保收入為1880萬美元，而2023年的承保收入為1430萬美元。這是因為 2024 年綜合事故年度綜合比率為 95.4%，而 2023 年為 97.3%。本期額外承保收入的改善得益於我們的核心業務 Penn-America 的強勁表​​現。賓州美國保險公司 1924 年承保收入為 2,210 萬美元，而 1923 年為 1,850 萬美元。正如傑伊所指出的，賓州美國保險公司的事故年度綜合比率從 23 年的 95.2% 改善至 24 年的 94.4%。

The accident loss ratio of 56.4% was a point better than the 57.4% in '23. The property loss ratio close year of 53.9% compared to 53.4% in '23. Non-cat loss ratio remains strong. We posted a 46.3% in '24 and 43.6% in '23. Cat loss ratio improved to 7.6% in '24 compared to 9.8% in '23. Overall Cat losses declined to $12.7 million compared to $13.8 million in 2023. The casualty loss ratio was 58.4% in '24 compared to 59.9% in 2023. Unlike last year, our noncore operations have a diminished effect on our overall performance.

事故損失率為56.4%，比1923年的57.4%有所改善。去年的財產損失率為 53.9%，而 23 年為 53.4%。非巨災損失率依然維持在高水準。我們在24年實現了46.3%的成長率，在23年實現了43.6%的成長率。巨災損失率從23年的9.8%改善至24年的7.6%。卡特彼勒整體損失從 2023 年的 1,380 萬美元下降至 1,270 萬美元。2024 年傷亡損失率為 58.4%，而 2023 年為 59.9%。與去年不同，我們的非核心業務對我們的整體業績的影響減弱了。

Our noncore operations and our premium has dropped to $7.2 million compared to $118.8 million in '23, mainly from an assumed retro session casualty treaty, which we did not renew. Further, the runoff of our exit and Specialty Property business resulted in no catastrophe losses in '24 compared to $3.4 million last year. The current accident year underwriting loss was $3.3 million for '24 compared to $4.2 million in '23. Combined ratio was 145.6%. The loss ratio was in line with expectations of 64.6% but runoff expenses remain a bit high as we wind down a number of the smaller underwriting portfolios.

我們的非核心業務和保費已從23年的1.188億美元下降至720萬美元，主要原因是假定的追溯期傷亡條約，我們沒有續簽。此外，我們的退出和專業房地產業務的流失導致24年沒有災難損失，而去年為340萬美元。24年本事故年度的承保損失為330萬美元，而23年為420萬美元。綜合成本率為145.6%。損失率符合 64.6% 的預期，但由於我們逐步減少一些較小的承保組合，損失費用仍然有點高。

As for the calendar year underwriting income, have consolidated calendar year underwriting income was $17.8 million compared to $3 million in 2023. Looking at prior accident year losses, book reserves remained solidly above our current actuarial indications. 2024 loss in LAE related to prior accident years was only a modest increase of $72,000.

至於日曆年承保收入，合併日曆年承保收入為 1,780 萬美元，而 2023 年為 300 萬美元。回顧前幾年的事故損失，帳面準備仍遠高於我們目前的精算指標。與前幾年的事故相比，2024 年的 LAE 損失僅小幅增加了 72,000 美元。

Turning to premiums. Consolidated gross premiums was $389.8 million in '24 compared to $416.4 million in '23. This decrease is entirely due to the runoff business of our noncore segment, which declined $57 million year-over-year, offset partially by the growth of Penn-America. Pen America's gross written premium increased 80% to $400 million compared to $369.7 million in '23. As Jay noted, excluding terminated products, Penn-America's gross rate premiums grew from $2.4 million in '23 to $395.1 million in '24, a 12% increase.

談到保費。'24年綜合毛保費為3.898億美元，而'23年為4.164億美元。這一下降完全是由於我們非核心部門的業務流失，與去年同期相比下降了 5700 萬美元，但被 Penn-America 的成長部分抵消了。Pen America 的毛承保保費較 23 年的 3.697 億美元成長 80%，達到 4 億美元。正如傑伊所指出的，不包括已終止的產品，Penn-America 的毛保費從 1923 年的 240 萬美元增長到 1924 年的 3.951 億美元，增幅為 12%。

Let me add a little color on each of those divisions. Wholesale commercial, which focused on our Main Street small business, grew 6% to $248.6 million compared to $234.9 million in '23. Excluding premium audit in these calendar year numbers, the underlying policy year premium trends, our best indicator of growth was 12%, which includes rate increases of 7%. InsurTech, which consists of vacant expressing collectibles grew 17% to $56.3 million in '24 compared to $48.3 million in '23.

讓我對每個部門稍微加點說明。批發商業專注於我們的主街小型企業，與23年的2.349億美元相比增長了6%，達到2.486億美元。不包括這些日曆年數字中的保費審計，基本保單年度保費趨勢，我們最好的成長指標是 12%，其中包括 7% 的費率成長。包括空頭支票收藏品在內的 InsurTech 在 24 年增加了 17%，達到 5,630 萬美元，而 23 年為 4,830 萬美元。

Let me break down those two products a bit. One for Bacon Express grew 24% to $40.5 million, driven by organic growth from existing agents and agency appointments. New technical automation implemented in the third quarter of 2023 for our bank dwelling products, including the expansion of monoline general liability product contributed to the growth in premium our agents are producing. Collectibles gross rate premium of $15.8 million was slightly higher than 2023 by 2%. We've implemented underwriting action on past refund risk that is curtailed growth a bit but is expected to improve overall profitability. Our assumed reinsurance business continues to grow at a nice pace. We signed up eight new trees in 2024.

讓我稍微分析一下這兩種產品。受現有代理商和代理商任命的有機成長推動，One for Bacon Express 的銷售額成長了 24%，達到 4,050 萬美元。2023 年第三季度，我們為銀行住房產品實施了新的技術自動化，包括單線一般責任產品的擴展，這有助於我們的代理商產生的保費成長。收藏品毛利率溢價為 1,580 萬美元，比 2023 年略高 2%。我們針對過去的退款風險實施了承保行動，這在一定程度上抑制了成長，但預計會提高整體獲利能力。我們假設的再保險業務繼續保持良好的成長速度。我們在 2024 年簽約種植了八棵新樹。

Gross written premiums grew to $25.4 million compared to $13.9 million in 2023. Specialty Products, excluding terminated products mentioned earlier, was $64.7 million compared to $55.3 million in '23. We signed on two new products in 2024 that contributed $1 million during the year. We expect to have four new products signed on over the next 6 to 12 months.

毛承保保費從 2023 年的 1,390 萬美元增長至 2,540 萬美元。特種產品（不包括前面提到的終止產品）的銷售額為 6,470 萬美元，而 23 年為 5,530 萬美元。我們於 2024 年簽署了兩款新產品，當年的貢獻為 100 萬美元。我們預計在未來 6 到 12 個月內簽約四款新產品。

In closing, we are pleased with the '24 results. Further, despite the impact of the first quarter wildfires, as Jay mentioned, our outlook for 2025 is very positive. We continue to expect revenue growth of 10% from Penn-America Further, we expect to see continued improvement in our non-catastrophe accident year loss ratios. Book reserves remained solidly above current actuarial locations. We believe premium pricing is continuing to track with loss inflation.

最後，我們對 24 年的成績感到滿意。此外，儘管正如傑伊所說，第一季受到了野火的影響，但我們對 2025 年的展望仍然非常樂觀。我們繼續預期 Penn-America 的收入將成長 10%，此外，我們預計非災難事故年度的損失率將繼續改善。帳面儲備仍穩固高於目前精算地點。我們相信，保費定價將繼續與損失通膨保持一致。

Discretionary capital, which is considered -- the amount of consolidated equity in excess of that amount required to maintain the strongest levels with our rating agencies, increased to $255 million at December 31, 2024, and compared to $200 million in December 31, 2023, due to growth in equity and the reduced capital needed to run off the noncore business. As Jay noted earlier, this will support the efforts to invest in the growth of the Penn-America underwriters. Lastly, our portfolio is well positioned to invest in longer-term duration maturities and higher yields.

可自由支配的資本被認為是——超過維持我們評級機構最強水平所需金額的合併權益金額，截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日增加至 2.55 億美元，而 2023 年 12 月 31 日為 2 億美元，原因是權益增長以及運營非核心業務所需的資本減少。正如傑伊之前提到的，這將支持投資賓州美國承銷商成長的努力。最後，我們的投資組合適合投資較長期、較有收益的債券。

Thank you. We'll now take your questions.

謝謝。我們現在來回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Tom Kerr, Zacks Small-Cap Research.

湯姆·克爾（Tom Kerr），Zacks Small-Cap Research。

Real quick on the California fires, was that just the underwriting type issues? Or have you guys been trying to get rate increases and deal with that issue?

關於加州大火，那隻是承保類型的問題嗎？或者你們一直在試圖提高利率並解決這個問題？

We've had an outstanding rate increase for our vacant express probably for a year plus at this point in time. Like most carriers, it just stalled completely in the regulatory environment. But otherwise, it was a -- it's obviously a sizable loss for us, but involved very few number of properties. I think it was less than 10 properties. Overall, we're involved in the fire.

到目前為止，我們的空置快車的運價可能已經上漲了一年多。與大多數運營商一樣，它在監管環境中完全停滯不前。但除此之外，這對我們來說顯然是一筆相當大的損失，但涉及的財產卻很少。我認為少於 10 處房產。總的來說，我們捲入了這場火災。

Okay. Great. And could you provide a little more color on the reinsurance segment and that growth in that? And what is the plan? I mean, could that continue its strong growth in 2025?

好的。偉大的。您能否詳細介紹一下再保險領域及其成長？計劃是什麼？我的意思是，到 2025 年它還能繼續保持強勁成長嗎？

Yes. The -- our growth there is if you recall, two years ago, when we cut back dramatically when I first arrived at the company. Obviously, our view at that point in time with the reduced volume we were doing in other sectors that we had a lot of capacity available. We had a history of doing some reinsurance, but we decided over the near term being two years ago and a couple of years forward that the best use of our internal capital was to develop some existing especially product relationships into assumed reinsurance. So we're up to Brian, how many?

是的。如果你還記得的話，我們的成長是在兩年前，當時我剛到公司時，我們大幅削減了開支。顯然，我們當時認為，由於我們在其他領域的業務量減少，我們擁有很大的可用產能。我們曾經做過一些再保險，但我們決定，在兩年前和幾年後的近期內，我們內部資本的最佳用途是將一些現有的，特別是產品關係發展為假定的再保險。那麼，布萊恩，我們要問多少個？

16.

16.

16 treaties at this point in time. roughly $45 million in force, and we expect that we're going to have a nice increase in '25 and '26. At that point, we'll be looking at our other lines of business and allocation of capital across our businesses to decide if we want to grow it much beyond that.

目前已有 16 項條約。大約有 4500 萬美元，我們預計 25 年和 26 年還會有可觀的成長。到時候，我們會審視我們的其他業務線以及各項業務的資本分配，以決定是否要進一步發展。

Got it. Two more quick ones for me. On the project manifest, do you see any benefits yet on the destocking of the organization in terms of ability to move capital between organizations? Has that kind of started yet?

知道了。對我來說還有兩個很快的問題。在項目清單中，您是否看到組織去庫存在組織間轉移資本的能力方面有任何好處？這種情況已經開始了嗎？

Yes. We picked up dividends to the holding company, about $50 million. So we're -- our statutory surplus is right around $500 million. as we get above that, that will give us more capacity in the insurance market.

是的。我們向控股公司收取了約 5,000 萬美元的股息。所以我們的法定盈餘大約是 5 億美元。一旦達到這個水平，我們就能在保險市場中獲得更大的容量。

Got it. And last one, I have to ask the standard share buyback question with $255 million in discretionary capital any portion of that could be used to buy back the stock at a discount to book value?

知道了。最後一個問題，我必須問一個標準的股票回購問題，在 2.55 億美元的可自由支配資本中，是否任何一部分可以用來以低於帳面價值的價格回購股票？

Of course, could be used to buy back stock at a discount. But right now, the Board feels more enthusiastic about our prospects for adding additional products and different types of underwriting into our company through the Penn-America. Our decision to hire Praveen is very much focused on this, and we expect that we can get better returns on growing our insurance business in the short term than just buying back stock.

當然，可以用來以折扣價回購股票。但目前，董事會對我們透過 Penn-America 增加更多產品和不同類型的承保的前景感到更加興奮。我們決定聘用 Praveen 正是因為這個原因，我們預期短期內發展保險業務比僅僅回購股票能獲得更好的回報。

Ross Haberman, Rlh Investments.

羅斯·哈伯曼（Ross Haberman），Rlh Investments。

I have a quick question. Could you go back to the California. Could you tell us what your total exposure is there? And is it on the direct commercial side? Or is it mostly on the reinsurance side?

我有一個簡單的問題。你能回加州嗎？您能告訴我們您在那裡的整體曝光量是多少嗎？這是直接針對商業嗎？或主要在再保險方面？

The -- our total exposure in California is about 6 basis points of the total property market. I don't have it at my fingertips exactly how much premium was. It was all on our direct book. It was not on any assumed reinsurance.

我們在加州的總風險敞口約佔整個房地產市場的 6 個基點。我不知道保費到底是多少。一切都在我們的直接預訂中。這不是任何假定的再保險。

And the $15 million, could that be a bigger number as time goes on? Or that's your best guess at least as of today.

那麼 1500 萬美元，隨著時間的推移，這個數字會不會變得更大？或者至少截至今天這是你最好的猜測。

We're -- we paid over half the losses at this point because of the small numbers, it's -- as I said, it's less than 10 losses, 10 individual properties that were involved. So we're pretty confident the number is not going to move too much at this point.

由於損失金額較小，我們已經支付了超過一半的損失，正如我所說，損失不到 10 筆，涉及 10 處個人財產。因此，我們非常有信心，目前這個數字不會有太大變化。

Okay. And your total fire or wildfire exposure, which you said you're reassessing what is that number today?

好的。您說您正在重新評估火災或野火的總暴露量，今天的數字是多少？

Well, it depends on the frequency and the location of loss. It's -- we have wildfire exposure in California and other states. My comment there was really focused on the fact that we use catastrophe models to estimate our exposure and manage how much we'll do in particular areas. They -- one of the ways those models work is to assess the frequency of a cat loss of a particular size. And so we typically manage to a one in 250 or one in 500 kind of level. as the maximum that we expect from a loss, this one won almost double that in terms of against what the model estimated. And so what I'm saying is that we're like a lot of people wondering at the tail of the individual models that we're using, are they that inaccurate? Why are they off that much?

嗯，這取決於損失的頻率和位置。加州和其他州都面臨野火威脅。我的評論主要集中在我們使用災難模型來估計我們的風險敞口以及管理我們在特定領域的工作量。這些模型的工作方式之一是評估特定大小的貓丟失的頻率。因此我們通常能夠達到 250 分之一或 500 分之一的水平。作為我們預期損失的最大數額，與模型估計的損失相比，這次贏的金額幾乎是這個數字的兩倍。所以我想說的是，我們和許多人一樣，對所使用的各個模型的尾部感到疑惑，它們是否真的不準確？他們為何偏離了這麼多？

Now this was an unusual fire, but it is -- it is something that we expect in California. We have different zones that we have fire exposure. One of the two fires was in a more exposed area. That was the Eaton fire. We actually had no losses in the Eaton location. Pasadena, which was slightly better in terms of the rating and expected less frequency of loss actually turned out for us to be where all of the properties were burned in that particular situation.

這是一場不尋常的火災，但這是我們在加州預料到的。我們有不同的區域有火災風險。兩起火災中，有一場發生在較為暴露的區域。那是伊頓大火。我們在伊頓公司實際上沒有遭受任何損失。帕薩迪納的評級略好一些，預計損失頻率也較低，但實際上，在那種特殊情況下，所有房產都被燒毀了。

So again, it's a modeling question for us. We're constantly trying to improve our models. And this one came in somewhat of a surprise, but we've all seen an escalation in the size of cat losses. Now in comparison, if we go back for the prior four years, there were cat losses, wildfire losses. And in each of the four years, we had no wildfire losses at all. And so we were very -- we're pretty comfortable and with the way we're managing that exposure. But again, the models for this type of loss don't seem to work very well.

所以，這對我們來說又是一個建模問題。我們一直在努力改進我們的模型。這次有點出人意料，但我們都看到貓咪損失的規模不斷擴大。現在比較一下，如果我們回顧前四年，有貓災損失，有野火損失。這四年中，我們都沒有遭受任何山火損失。因此，我們非常——我們對我們管理這種風險的方式感到非常滿意。但同樣，這種損失的模型似乎效果不太好。

So basically, you've got to reassess it and rejigger, I guess, the assumptions there.

所以基本上，你必須重新評估它並且重新調整那裡的假設。

Yes. We're looking at it. It's -- we're trying to -- there's a couple of minor adjustments that we're making very quickly in terms of what we would do in a Zone three versus a Zone 4 or 5, and we're trying to say, maybe we have to move that out a little bit to contain that exposure. But again, this size loss is not disproportionate for a company our size. I mean it's kind of the -- in the -- if you're going to write any property business, you're going to have some cat exposures in this for us. It always hurts more when it comes in the first quarter, but over the course of the year, we typically expect, as I mentioned, something like $16 million or $17 million in cat losses. Some years, it's more, some years, it's less. But that's what our current book would expect over time to see in a normal year.

是的。我們正在觀察它。我們正在嘗試——針對我們在 3 區和 4 區或 5 區之間要做的事情，我們正在快速做出一些小調整，我們試圖說，也許我們必須將其稍微移出一點，以控制這種暴露。但對於我們這樣規模的公司來說，這種規模的損失並不算不成比例。我的意思是，如果你要寫任何房地產業務，你就會為我們帶來一些貓風險。第一季的損失總是更大，但正如我所提到的那樣，我們通常預計全年的損失約為 1600 萬美元或 1700 萬美元。有些年份多一些，有些年份少一些。但這正是我們目前的預期，在正常年份裡，隨著時間的推移，就會出現這種情況。

Overall, just a follow-up question. Overall, given what happened in California, what kind of rate increases going forward, you expect in that state or in that general area, given what happened?

總的來說，這只是一個後續問題。總體而言，考慮到加州發生的情況，您預計該州或該地區未來的利率將會出現什麼樣的成長？

What we expect and what we get might be two different things. But I would say that we need at least 50% on the type of business that was affected by this particular wildfire and perhaps more depending on the types of individual exposures. But it's -- California has been tough on rates. And it's a real obstacle and they're creating a real problem for themselves in terms of not allowing carriers to get an adequate rate, which makes it much harder for people to obtain coverage. And that's obviously not the goal of the insurance industry. We want to provide coverage for every possible exposure that we feel we can wait appropriately.

我們所期望的和我們所得到的可能是兩碼事。但我想說，我們需要至少 50% 的資金用於應對此次野火造成的業務影響，或許更多，具體取決於個體風險的類型。但加州的利率一直很嚴格。這是一個真正的障礙，他們不允許營運商獲得足夠的費率，從而給自己帶來了真正的問題，這使得人們更難獲得保障。這顯然不是保險業的目標。我們希望為所有我們認為可以適當等待的可能發生的暴露提供保障。

I guess if I can't get an appropriately risk rate, whether it's 50% as you hope to, do you say hypothetically, if you can only get 20% or 25%, do you say it's not worth it to us, it's not worth the risk. We're just not going to write there anymore.

我想，如果我不能獲得適當的風險率，不管它是您希望的 50%，您假設說，如果您只能獲得 20% 或 25%，您說這對我們來說不值得，不值得冒這個險。我們不會再在那裡寫東西了。

Typically, that will be a decision that we face selectively over time, and we try and manage it in line with what our customers are trying to achieve, meaning our agent partners. But the reality is we are a for-profit business. We're very, very focused on making good with our shareholders. And if we can't make it in California selling cat-exposed business, we'll find some place else in the United States to sell more business.

通常，這將是我們隨著時間的推移而有選擇地面臨的決定，我們會嘗試根據客戶（即我們的代理商合作夥伴）想要實現的目標來管理它。但事實上我們是一家營利事業。我們非常非常注重為股東謀福利。如果我們不能在加州銷售貓相關業務，我們就會在美國其他地方尋找更多業務。

And just one last question. You brought in this new gentleman to expand your lines of business. Do you have a rough idea what kind of lines is he sort of going to be focused on?

最後一個問題。您引進這位新先生是為了擴展您的業務範圍。您大概知道他將會專注在哪一類台詞嗎？

Stay tuned.

敬請關注。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Vindigni. That's from the web. Is there room to reduce the expense ratio without compromising underwriting quality any uses for excess capital may be a special dividend?

您的下一個問題來自 Andrew Vindigni。這是從網路上找來的。在不損害承保品質的情況下，是否有空間降低費用率？過剩資本的任何用途可能是特別股利？

We don't currently plan any special dividends. And in terms of our expense ratio, there is room. We expect that as we've run off the remaining terminated business, there'll be a little bit of pickup in terms of that area not needing expenses. But the big lift for us in terms of where we are, given that we were $250 million higher a couple of years ago is really growing back to that size over the next couple of years and bringing the expense ratio down another 1 point, 1.5 points from where it currently exists.

我們目前不計劃派發任何特別股利。從我們的費用率來看，還有空間。我們預計，隨著我們完成剩餘的終止業務，在不需要開支的領域將有所回升。但就我們目前的狀況而言，考慮到幾年前我們的支出高出了 2.5 億美元，未來幾年我們的支出將真正回到這個規模，並將費用率從目前水準再降低 1 個百分點、1.5 個百分點。

It's -- the expense ratio is somewhat misleading, sometimes to look at. You see 30 -- 38% and kind of go wow, that's a big number. And then you have to realize that less than 12% or 13% of that is our internal expenses. And the remainder is commissions. We pay our agents licensing fees, et cetera. And so the actual costs that we're dealing with is out of that 38% is roughly 12% or 13% of that total. Not percent but a portion of. So about 1/3 of the expense is something that we're focused on managing down 1.5 points in the next couple of years.

費用比率有時候看起來會有點誤導。你看到 30% 到 38% 會覺得驚訝，這是一個很大的數字。然後你必須意識到其中不到 12％ 或 13％ 是我們的內部開支。剩餘的是佣金。我們向代理商支付許可費等等。因此，我們處理的實際成本是這 38% 中的大約 12% 或 13%。不是百分比，而是一部分。因此，我們重點將在未來幾年內將約 1/3 的開支降低 1.5 個百分點。

Your next question comes from Justin Sanders of via web. Anything abnormal in the Q4 corporate and other operating expenses wraps to $7 million for the Q?

您的下一個問題來自 via web 的賈斯汀桑德斯 (Justin Sanders)。Q4 公司及其他營運費用是否出現異常，導致 Q4 費用達到 700 萬美元？

Yes. Yes. For the year, corporate expenses are up $5 million professional fees related to project manifest and implementation drove most of that.

是的。是的。今年，公司開支增加了 500 萬美元，其中大部分是與專案清單和實施相關的專業費用。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Joel Straka via web. Regarding Project Manifest, GBLI has tried growth strategies in the past and failed. You were brought into the map of those out. Can you explain why your growth strategy will work this time?

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自喬爾·斯特拉卡 (Joel Straka) 透過網路提出。關於“Project Manifest”，GBLI 過去曾嘗試過成長策略，但失敗了。你被帶入了那些出去的地圖。你能解釋一下為什麼你們的成長策略這次會有效嗎？

Sure. One is that our new structure allows us to bring in additional underwriting teams coupled with the technology investment we're making. Our growth structure that we tried an attempted two or three years ago, our biggest problem was the underwriting teams were brought in and we're operating in essentially a manual environment with no technology support. That was a mistake on our part. We talked about it at the time, and it's certainly not a mistake we're going to make going forward. This time around, we feel much more comfortable that our technology investments are creating a platform that will allow a variety of products we don't currently sell to be offered to existing and new agency partners.

當然。一是，我們的新結構使我們能夠引入額外的核保團隊，並結合我們正在進行的技術投資。我們兩三年前嘗試過的成長結構，最大的問題是核保團隊被引入，我們基本上是在沒有技術支援的手動環境中運作。這是我們的一個錯誤。我們當時討論過這個問題，我們絕對不會再犯這個錯誤。這一次，我們感到更加放心，因為我們的技術投資正在創建一個平台，這個平台將允許我們向現有和新的代理商合作夥伴提供各種我們目前尚未銷售的產品。

The other thing to, I guess, kind of reflect on is we made a very clear decision to bring in a particular individual with a lot of experience with products that we don't currently offer. And so we're looking to expand given his knowledge and contacts in the industry, some of which will be built internally, some of which will be by bringing in additional people. And finally, in some cases, by actually buying certain types of operations from other carriers. It's always hard to say if you didn't weren't successful in the past, why do you think you're going to be successful at this time.

我想，另一件值得反思的事情是，我們做出了一個非常明確的決定，引進一位在我們目前還沒有提供的產品方面經驗豐富的特定人才。因此，鑑於他在該行業的知識和人脈，我們希望進行擴張，其中一些將在內部建立，一些將透過引進更多人才來擴大。最後，在某些情況下，實際上是從其他業者購買某些類型的業務。你總是很難說，如果你過去沒有成功，為什麼你認為你這次會成功。

But I would tell you that based on my last 2.5 years here, the team and the Board and particularly Fox Payne have focused very carefully about a comprehensive plan to bring this out where we can grow at a greater rate than we've been able to grow over the most recent past. And I think time will tell if we're successful with that. But I think now that we have a very stable, profitable underwriting base in place. We don't have any major decisions to make about staffing in the short term in terms of having too much and having approximately 15 months behind us in a 3-year technology spend, I feel very, very personally confident that this is going to be a successful strategy for Global to pursue.

但我要告訴你，根據我過去 2.5 年在這裡的工作經驗，團隊、董事會、特別是福克斯佩恩都非常認真地制定了一項全面計劃，以實現這一目標，讓我們能夠以比最近幾年更快的速度增長。我認為時間將證明我們是否能夠成功。但我認為現在我們有一個非常穩定、有利可圖的承保基礎。短期內我們不需要就人員配置做出任何重大決定，因為我們會安排過多的人員，而且在 3 年的技術支出中我們已經有大約 15 個月的時間了，我個人非常有信心這將是 Global 追求的成功策略。

I will now turn the call back over to Evan Kasowitz for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給埃文·卡索維茨 (Evan Kasowitz)，請他作結束語。

Thank you. This concludes our 2024 earnings call. We look forward to speaking with you about our first quarter 2025 results.

謝謝。我們的 2024 年收益電話會議到此結束。我們期待與您討論我們的 2025 年第一季業績。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。