Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Frontdoor's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded and broadcast on the Internet. Beginning today's call is Matt Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and he will introduce the other speakers on the call. At this time, we'll begin today's call. Please go ahead, Mr. Davis.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加Frontdoor 2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天的通話將會被錄音並在網路上直播。今天的電話會議首先由投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Matt Davis 主持，他將介紹電話會議的其他發言人。現在，我們開始今天的電話會議。請繼續，戴維斯先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Frontdoor's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Bill Cobb, Chairman and CEO; Jessica Ross, CFO; and Jason Bailey, VP of Finance, will be joining me on today's call. The press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the Investor Relations section of Frontdoor's website, which is located at www.investors.frontdoorhome.com.

謝謝接線生。各位早安，感謝各位參加Frontdoor 2025年第三季財報電話會議。董事長兼執行長比爾·科布、財務長傑西卡·羅斯和財務副總裁傑森·貝利將與我一起參加今天的電話會議。今天電話會議將使用的新聞稿和幻燈片簡報可在 Frontdoor 網站的投資者關係部分找到，網址為 www.investors.frontdoorhome.com。

As stated on slide 3 of the presentation, I'd like to remind you that this call and webcast may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today. These risk factors are explained in detail in the company's filings with the SEC.

如同簡報第 3 頁所述，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議和網路直播可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在各種風險和不確定因素，可能導致實際結果與今天這裡討論的結果有重大差異。這些風險因素在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中均有詳細說明。

Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements. All forward-looking statements are made as of today, November 5, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

有關我們的前瞻性陳述以及與此類陳述相關的風險和不確定性的更詳細討論，請參閱我們文件中的「風險因素」部分。所有前瞻性陳述均截至今日（11月5日），除法律要求外，本公司不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout today's call. We have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance. I will now turn the call over to Bill Cobb for opening comments. Bill?

在今天的電話會議中，我們也會提及一些非GAAP財務指標。為了更好地幫助您了解我們的財務業績，我們在新聞稿和簡報的附錄中列出了這些術語的定義以及這些非GAAP財務指標與其最可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表。現在我將把電話交給比爾‧科布，請他作開場白。帳單？

Thanks, Matt Davis, and good morning, everyone. What a year Frontdoor is having. Our results reflect the continuation of superior financial and operational performance, and we are on track for record financial results in 2025. Let's get into the third quarter highlights on page 4. Starting with revenue, which increased 14% period-over-period to $618 million. Gross profit margin increased 60 basis points to 57%.

謝謝馬特戴維斯，大家早安。Frontdoor今年真是經歷了不少風風雨雨。我們的業績反映了我們持續優異的財務和營運表現，我們預計在 2025 年取得創紀錄的財務表現。讓我們翻到第 4 頁，來看看第三季的精彩片段。首先來看營收，季增 14%，達到 6.18 億美元。毛利率上升60個基點至57%。

Net income grew 5% to $106 million and adjusted EBITDA grew 18% to $195 million. Additionally, first year organic DTC ending member count grew 8%. Real estate member count grew sequentially in Q3, a milestone that we have not seen for the past five years. New HVAC revenue continues to crush it.

淨利潤成長 5% 至 1.06 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 18% 至 1.95 億美元。此外，第一年有機DTC會員數量增加了8%。第三季房地產會員數量較上季成長，這是過去五年來我們從未見過的里程碑。新增暖通空調收入持續大幅成長。

Synergies from the 2-10 acquisition remain ahead of schedule, and we have used our strong cash flows to repurchase shares, totaling $215 million through October 31. Our results speak for themselves, and they show the power of our strategy and the momentum we've built.

2-10 收購帶來的綜效仍然超前於預期，我們利用強勁的現金流回購了股票，截至 10 月 31 日，回購總額已達 2.15 億美元。我們的成果不言自明，展現了我們策略的力量和我們所累積的勢頭。

Now flip to slide 5. We are firing on all cylinders, and that strong momentum has positioned us to deliver across our business. First, operational excellence is at our core. Three years of disciplined execution have built a strong foundation to accelerate growth. Second, DTC continues to perform, five straight quarters of organic member growth.

現在翻到第5張投影片。我們目前各項業務都在高速運轉，這種強勁的勢頭使我們能夠在各個業務領域取得成功。首先，卓越營運是我們的核心。三年來的嚴格執行為加速成長奠定了堅實的基礎。其次，DTC業務持續成長，連續五季實現自然會員成長。

Third, we see the real estate channel turning the corner, supported by the return of a buyer's market. Fourth, retention rates are strong and remain near all-time highs. We're committed to delivering an outstanding experience for our 2 million-plus members through continuous innovation and technology.

第三，我們看到房地產市場正在好轉，買方市場的回歸為其提供了支撐。第四，用戶留存率強勁，並維持在歷史最高水準附近。我們致力於透過持續創新和技術，為超過200萬會員提供卓越的體驗。

And finally, our nonwarranty growth continues to be a game changer. Leveraging the success of the new HVAC program, we are well positioned to replicate that model by expanding into other replacement categories. Let's double-click on each point, beginning on slide 6. We've talked a lot over the past few quarters about building a foundation of operational excellence and for good reason. These efforts have translated directly into stronger financial results.

最後，我們的非保固業務成長持續改變產業格局。憑藉新的暖通空調專案的成功經驗，我們有能力將該模式複製到其他更換類別中。讓我們從第 6 張投影片開始，雙擊每個要點。過去幾個季度，我們一直在討論如何建立卓越營運的基礎，這是有充分理由的。這些努力已直接轉化為更強勁的財務表現。

Over the past three years, we have focused our margin improvement efforts in two key areas: one, pricing actions; and two, operational efficiencies. Let me start with pricing. In 2022, we faced the highest inflation in the generation, and we responded decisively with double-digit price increases, not only to catch up to those inflationary pressures, but also to address where inflation was heading.

過去三年，我們將利潤率提升工作重點放在兩個關鍵領域：一是定價策略；二是營運效率。首先，我們來談談價格。2022 年，我們面臨著這一代人以來最高的通貨膨脹，我們果斷地採取了兩位數的價格上漲措施，不僅是為了應對這些通膨壓力，也是為了應對通膨的走向。

We did this using our dynamic pricing capabilities, which deliver smart and strategic price adjustments, particularly for higher usage members. We also raised our trade service fee, which is actually an offset to claims costs, providing us another lever to respond to inflation.

我們利用動態定價功能實現了這一點，該功能可以進行智慧和策略性的價格調整，尤其適用於使用量較高的會員。我們還提高了貿易服務費，這實際上抵消了索賠成本，為我們應對通貨膨脹提供了另一個手段。

Now turning to operations. We've made meaningful strides in improving execution and cost discipline. We have enhanced and accelerated our contractor management process. This has driven better alignment, better execution, better member experiences and better costs. One key proof point is that our preferred contractor utilization has improved 200 basis points on average over the last three years. Our supply chain team has done an excellent job of leveraging our purchasing volume and extensive supplier network to negotiate better terms and allocate purchases to maximize cost savings.

現在進入營運環節。我們在提高執行力和成本控制方面取得了顯著進展。我們已改進並加快了承包商管理流程。這帶來了更好的協調、更好的執行、更好的會員體驗和更低的成本。一個關鍵的證明點是，在過去三年裡，我們首選承包商的使用率平均提高了 200 個基點。我們的供應鏈團隊出色地利用了我們的採購量和廣泛的供應商網絡，協商了更好的條款，並合理分配採購，從而最大限度地節省了成本。

When you combine these pricing actions and operational efficiencies, we have improved our gross profit margin over 1,000 basis points since I started in the middle of 2022. In fact, we have had so much success improving our margins that we are reevaluating the long-term margin targets we provided at Investor Day earlier this year, and we will provide more information about that on our next earnings call.

自從我 2022 年中加入公司以來，透過這些定價措施和營運效率的提高，我們的毛利率提高了 1000 多個基點。事實上，我們在提高利潤率方面取得瞭如此大的成功，以至於我們正在重新評估今年稍早在投資者日上提出的長期利潤率目標，我們將在下次財報電話會議上提供更多相關資訊。

Moving to the direct-to-consumer channel on slide 7. The DTC channel is performing very well, and our efforts to drive member count growth are paying off. In the third quarter, we grew organic DTC member count by 8% versus the prior year period. This is now 5 consecutive quarters of organic growth. Our success in DTC is due to several factors.

第 7 頁將轉向直接面向消費者的管道。DTC通路表現非常出色，我們為推動會員數成長所做的努力正在發揮成效。第三季度，我們的有機 DTC 會員數量比去年同期增加了 8%。這已經是連續第五個季度實現有機成長了。我們在DTC（直接面向消費者）領域的成功歸功於以下幾個因素。

First, the Warrantina campaign is working. I'll show you supporting data on the next slide, but we developed this campaign with younger audiences in mind, specifically millennials, since the average first-time homebuyer is now 38 years old. From a targeting perspective, we have sharpened our media strategy to focus on the middle of the media funnel, where consumers go from being aware of us to considering us. This strategy has improved our marketing effectiveness and media efficiency.

首先，Warrantina運動正在發揮作用。我將在下一張投影片上向您展示相關數據，但我們在製定這項活動時考慮到了年輕受眾，特別是千禧世代，因為現在首次購房者的平均年齡為 38 歲。從目標定位的角度來看，我們改進了媒體策略，重點關注媒體管道的中段，即消費者從了解我們到考慮與我們合作的階段。這項策略提高了我們的行銷效果和媒體利用效率。

Next, simply speaking, our promotional pricing strategy is bringing in more members. This strategy works because we can quickly return these cohorts to traditional pricing within the first two years without compromising renewal rates. Further, we are directly targeting new homebuyers who did not purchase a warranty with their new home transaction. Our multichannel approach includes paid search, social media, commercial partnerships and word-of-mouth campaigns and we are getting more sophisticated in our digital marketing approach.

其次，簡單來說，我們的促銷定價策略正在吸引更多會員。這種策略之所以有效，是因為我們可以在前兩年內迅速讓這些使用者群體恢復到傳統定價模式，而不會影響續約率。此外，我們的目標客戶是那些在購買新房時沒有購買保固服務的新房購屋者。我們的多通路行銷策略包括付費搜尋、社群媒體、商業合作和口碑行銷，我們的數位行銷策略也日趨成熟。

AI is coming into play and enhancing our search strategy by moving beyond traditional keyword targeting. We are using more intelligent, context-driven approaches, which have improved discoverability and relevance with large language models or LLMs, such as ChatGPT.

人工智慧正在發揮作用，透過超越傳統的關鍵字定位來增強我們的搜尋策略。我們正在使用更聰明、情境驅動的方法，這提高了大型語言模型（LLM）的可發現性和相關性，例如 ChatGPT。

Let's turn to slide 8 to talk about the effectiveness of the Warrantina campaign. The campaign is resonating, and we are leaning into education to balance the entertainment factor. Our research shows that key metrics such as likability, relevance and purchase interest are up significantly in just six months' time.

讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片，來討論 Warrantina 活動的成效。這場活動引起了共鳴，我們正在加強教育，以平衡娛樂因素。我們的研究表明，在短短六個月內，喜愛度、相關性和購買意願等關鍵指標都顯著上升。

And as you can see in red, our value proposition of budget protection and convenience is landing even more with those under the age of 45. The team's work over the past five quarters has been excellent. But we are not stopping here. We are allocating more marketing spend in the fourth quarter to position us for another strong year in 2026.

正如您在紅色部分看到的，我們關於預算保護和便利的價值主張在 45 歲以下的人群中越來越受歡迎。過去五個季度，球隊的表現非常出色。但我們不會就此止步。我們將在第四季增加行銷支出，為2026年再創佳績做好準備。

Now turning to slide 9 and the real estate channel. The story here is finally one of optimism. Despite ongoing macro challenges, our ending member count in the real estate channel has increased sequentially in the third quarter, the first improvement since 2020. While the macro environment in the real estate sector is showing some signs of improvement, challenges still remain.

現在就來看第 9 張投影片，以及房地產頻道。最終，這個故事講述的是一個充滿希望的故事。儘管宏觀經濟面臨持續挑戰，但我們在房地產通路的期末會員數量在第三季環比增長，這是自 2020 年以來的首次改善。儘管房地產行業的宏觀環境出現了一些改善跡象，但挑戰仍然存在。

According to the National Association of Realtors, September existing home sales increased 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $4.06 million. However, this is still among the lowest level of home sales in 30 years. Moreover, affordability remains a concern with home prices climbing another 2% on average in September to $415,000. The bright spot Total housing inventory increased 14% year-over-year, and we are now at 4.6 months of supply.

據美國房地產經紀人協會稱，9 月成屋銷售量成長 4.1%，經季節性調整後的年化銷售量為 406 萬美元。然而，這仍然是 30 年來房屋銷售的最低水準之一。此外，住房負擔能力仍然是一個令人擔憂的問題，9 月房價平均上漲了 2%，達到 41.5 萬美元。亮點在於，住房總庫存年增 14%，目前供應量已達 4.6 個月。

While inventory remains below pre-COVID levels, it is now at a five-year high. This shift signals that a transition to a buyer's market is underway, where homes stay on the market longer and sellers are more likely to add a home warranty to help close the deal. Here are some of our aggressive actions to improve sales. Increasing engagement with real estate agents, we are delivering a differentiated product and agent interest has picked up significantly around our video chat with an expert feature.

雖然庫存仍低於新冠疫情前的水平，但目前已達到五年來的最高水準。這一轉變表明市場正在向買方市場過渡，房屋在市場上停留的時間更長，賣家更有可能提供房屋保固來幫助完成交易。以下是我們為提升銷售額而採取的一些積極措施。為了提高與房地產經紀人的互動，我們提供差異化的產品，經紀人對我們與專家進行視訊聊天功能的興趣顯著提高。

We are also continuing to provide education on the benefits of a home warranty and have a compelling value proposition that keeps our brands top of mind. Additionally, we have implemented targeted promotions to drive renewed interest and excitement with both agents and new homebuyers. Our actions, combined with these market dynamics are resulting in us outpacing the market.

我們也持續進行房屋保固益處的教育活動，並擁有極具吸引力的價值主張，使我們的品牌始終保持在消費者的首選地位。此外，我們還實施了有針對性的促銷活動，以重新激發經紀人和新購房者的興趣和熱情。我們的行動，加上這些市場動態，使我們超越了市場。

Moving on to retention rates on slide 10. In the third quarter, our customer retention rate was at 79.4%. Retention remains strong because we are delivering a better member experience through technology and process improvements. On the technology side, we have had two big wins.

接下來，請看第 10 張投影片，了解顧客留存率。第三季度，我們的客戶留存率為 79.4%。會員留存率保持強勁，是因為我們透過技術和流程改進，提供了更好的會員體驗。在技​​術方面，我們取得了兩場重大勝利。

First, AHS App adoption is growing. Launched only a year ago, almost 20% of our members have already downloaded our app, an outstanding result. This enables easier service request submission and real-time contractor updates. In the past 12 months, members have submitted 200,000 service requests through the app and usage continues to ramp.

首先，AHS App 的使用率正在成長。我們的應用程式推出僅一年，已有近 20% 的會員下載了該應用程序，這是一個非常出色的成績。這使得服務請求提交更加便捷，並能即時更新承包商資訊。在過去的 12 個月裡，會員透過該應用程式提交了 20 萬個服務請求，而且使用量還在持續增長。

Second, and to quote one of our members, video chat with an expert is dope. Since the launch in February, our visual experts have completed about 35,000 video chats and members love it, giving us nearly perfect thumbs-up ratings. It is a true differentiator in the home services industry and it is free for our members.

其次，引用我們一位成員的話來說，與專家進行視訊聊天真是太棒了。自二月推出以來，我們的視覺專家已經完成了約 35,000 次視訊聊天，會員們非常喜歡，幾乎都給予了滿分好評。它真正體現了家事服務業的差異化優勢，而且對我們的會員免費。

Behind the scenes, we're also driving continuous improvements to deepen member loyalty and strengthen retention such as early engagement with new members through onboarding and tailored offers, improving the number of members on AutoPay, usage of preferred contractors, which was 84% in the third quarter.

在幕後，我們也在不斷改進，以加深會員忠誠度並加強會員留存，例如透過入職培訓和客製化優惠儘早吸引新會員，提高自動付款會員數量，以及使用首選承包商（第三季度達到 84%）。

And we are also leveraging technology to improve the member experience, including system improvements to support smarter job routing to our contractors, and using AI to accelerate authorizations and assist in coverage decisions, enabling a 10x increase in the speed of coverage reviews. The impact is clear. Stronger relationships, higher satisfaction and a service experience that sets us apart. Retention isn't just a metric. It's proof that our strategy is working.

我們也在利用技術來改善會員體驗，包括改進系統以支援更聰明地將工作分配給我們的承包商，以及使用人工智慧來加快授權和協助做出承保決定，從而使承保審查速度提高 10 倍。影響顯而易見。更牢固的客戶關係、更高的客戶滿意度和卓越的服務體驗，使我們脫穎而出。用戶留存率不僅僅是一個指標。這證明我們的策略是有效的。

On slide 11, let's talk about another bright spot of Frontdoor, nonwarranty revenue. This is a major success story and an even bigger opportunity. As a reminder, nonwarranty is comprised of a number of programs but is currently fueled by our new HVAC sales. The program is scaling fast, and we are raising our full year outlook for new HVAC revenue again.

在第 11 張幻燈片中，我們來談談 Frontdoor 的另一個亮點——非保固收入。這是一個重大的成功案例，也是一個更大的機會。再次提醒，非保固計畫包含多個項目，但目前主要由我們的新暖通空調銷售推動。此專案發展迅速，我們再次提高了全年暖通空調新收入預期。

Now to $125 million, a 44% increase over 2024. The opportunity ahead is enormous. In three years' time, we have sold around 50,000 HVAC units to our base of more than 2 million members. The runway for expansion is clear. We are now applying these learnings to other trades. We recently expanded our appliance replacement pilot, offering great deals on a full range of new appliances, and we are looking to launch this great offer nationwide next year.

預計到 2024 年將達到 1.25 億美元，比 2024 年成長 44%。前方的機遇巨大。三年間，我們已向超過 200 萬會員售出了約 5 萬台 HVAC 設備。擴張的空間已經很充足。我們現在正將這些經驗應用到其他產業。我們最近擴大了家電更換試點項目，為各種新家電提供優惠，我們計劃明年在全國推出這項優惠活動。

We are also exploring opportunities in roof and water heater replacement. Again, together, these categories represent an opportunity of $2 billion with our members, opening the front door to significant long-term growth. We especially love this program because every sale is a relatively CAC-free opportunity across our member base.

我們也正在探索屋頂和熱水器更換方面的機會。再次強調，這些類別加起來代表著我們會員20億美元的商機，為實現長期的顯著成長打開了大門。我們特別喜歡這個項目，因為每一筆銷售都是在我們會員群中創造相對零獲客成本的機會。

And looking into the future, we see additional potential through our 210 acquisition, which provides us access to 19,000 builder partners. This positions us to expand beyond HVAC and create new revenue streams across multiple trades and in new customer channels. We will share more about this on our next earnings call. On that high note, I'll now turn the call over to Jessica.

展望未來，我們看到透過收購 210 家公司獲得了更多潛力，這使我們能夠接觸到 19,000 家建築商合作夥伴。這使我們能夠將業務拓展到暖通空調以外的領域，並在多個行業和新的客戶管道中創造新的收入來源。我們將在下次財報電話會議上分享更多相關資訊。帶著這份喜悅，我現在將把電話交給潔西卡。

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I will now cover the financial results for the third quarter, beginning with revenue on slide 13. We delivered strong top line growth of 14% in the third quarter with revenues reaching $618 million. This performance was driven by 12% from higher volume and 3% from higher price. From a channel perspective, renewal revenue was up 9%, benefiting from 2-10 volumes and higher price realization from leveraging our dynamic pricing capabilities. Real estate revenue grew 21%, driven primarily by contributions from 2-10.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早安。接下來我將介紹第三季的財務業績，先從第 13 頁的收入開始。第三季度，我們的營收實現了強勁成長，年增 14%，達到 6.18 億美元。這一業績成長主要得益於銷售成長（成長 12%）和價格上漲（成長 3%）。從通路角度來看，續訂收入成長了 9%，這得益於 2-10 件的銷量成長以及利用我們的動態定價能力實現的更高價格。房地產收入成長了 21%，主要由 2-10 年級的貢獻推動。

Direct-to-consumer revenue increased 11%, supported by volume gains from our promotional pricing strategy and targeted marketing efforts as well as contributions from 2-10. This was partially offset by lower pricing. And finally, our nonwarranty business continues to be a key growth engine with other revenues up 73% year-over-year. This growth was propelled by our new HVAC and loan programs along with contributions from 2-10 new home structural offering.

直接面向消費者的收入成長了 11%，這得益於我們的促銷定價策略和有針對性的行銷活動帶來的銷售成長，以及 2-10 號的貢獻。價格下降部分抵消了這一影響。最後，我們的非保固業務仍然是重要的成長引擎，其他收入較去年同期成長73%。這一增長得益於我們新的暖通空調和貸款計劃，以及 2-10 套新建住宅結構產品的貢獻。

Now moving down the P&L to gross profit on slide 14. Gross profit grew 16% to $353 million in the third quarter, with gross profit margin expanding by 60 basis points versus the prior year period. During the quarter, inflation was in the low to mid-single digits across contractors, parts and equipment. Favorable weather trends reduced the number of service requests in the HVAC trade, providing a $6 million benefit and claims cost development was a $5 million benefit compared to a $3 million benefit in the prior year period.

現在往下看損益表，第 14 頁是毛利部分。第三季毛利成長16%至3.53億美元，毛利率較上年同期成長60個基點。本季度，承包商、零件和設備的通貨膨脹率均處於個位數低至中等水平。有利的天氣趨勢減少了暖通空調行業的服務請求數量，帶來了 600 萬美元的收益，索賠成本發展也帶來了 500 萬美元的收益，而去年同期則帶來了 300 萬美元的收益。

Turning to slide 15, where we will review net income and adjusted EBITDA. For the third quarter, net income grew 5% to $106 million and adjusted EBITDA grew 18% to $195 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 32% in the third quarter, up about 100 basis points from the prior year period.

接下來請看第 15 張投影片，我們將回顧淨收入和調整後 EBITDA。第三季度，淨利成長5%至1.06億美元，調整後EBITDA成長18%至1.95億美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提高至 32%，較上年同期成長約 100 個基點。

Let me quickly walk you through the drivers. We had $47 million of favorable revenue conversion, primarily from the 2-10 acquisition and higher price. Contract claims costs were flat versus the prior year period, which includes the already discussed inflation impacts and favorable incidents and claims development. We also had $20 million of higher SG&A due to the addition of 2-10 and personnel costs.

讓我快速地帶你了解一下驅動程式。我們獲得了 4700 萬美元的有利收入轉化，主要來自對 2-10 的收購以及更高的收購價格。合約索賠成本與去年同期持平，其中包括前面討論過的通貨膨脹影響以及有利的事件和索賠發展。由於新增 2-10 家公司和人員成本，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用也增加了 2,000 萬美元。

Now moving to earnings per share on slide 16. On a fully diluted basis, earnings per share grew 9% to $1.42 per share, and adjusted earnings per share grew 15% to $1.58 per share. Now turning to slide 17 and our free cash flow and financial position. Our year-to-date free cash flow increased 64% to $296 million, and our total cash position increased to $563 million. Through October, we purchased $215 million worth of shares.

現在就來看看第16張投影片中的每股盈餘。以完全稀釋後的每股盈餘計算，每股盈餘成長 9% 至 1.42 美元；以調整後的每股盈餘計算，每股盈餘成長 15% 至 1.58 美元。現在就來看看第 17 張投影片，了解我們的自由現金流和財務狀況。今年迄今為止，我們的自由現金流成長了 64%，達到 2.96 億美元，現金總額增加到 5.63 億美元。截至10月份，我們買了價值2.15億美元的股票。

Now let me take a step back and really highlight our cash flow conversion. Our year-to-date cash conversion was 60% compared to 46% in the prior year period. This sustained cash generation and conversion is a defining feature of our business model and a cornerstone of our financial strength. With that, I will now turn it over to Jason to walk through the outlook.

現在讓我退後一步，重點介紹一下我們的現金流轉換率。今年迄今為止，我們的現金轉換率為 60%，而去年同期為 46%。持續的現金流量產生和轉換是我們商業模式的顯著特徵，也是我們財務實力的基石。接下來，我會把發言權交給傑森，讓他來介紹前景。

Thanks, Jessica. Now turning to slide 18 and our fourth quarter outlook. For the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to be in the range of $415 million to $425 million. We expect fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $50 million to $55 million. This range anticipates higher SG&A spend as we are reinvesting some of our gross profit favorability in the marketing to drive growth.

謝謝你，潔西卡。現在就來看看第 18 張投影片，以及我們的第四季展望。我們預計第四季營收將在 4.15 億美元至 4.25 億美元之間。我們預計第四季度調整後 EBITDA 將在 5,000 萬美元至 5,500 萬美元之間。該範圍預計銷售、一般及行政費用將增加，因為我們將部分毛利再投資於行銷以推動成長。

Now turning to slide 19 and how this translates into our full year outlook for 2025. For the full year, we are increasing our revenue outlook to be in the range of $2.075 billion to $2.085 billion, driven by better-than-expected performance in the new HVAC program, the renewals channel and the real estate channel. This is approximately a $15 million increase from our prior outlook at the midpoint.

現在就來看看第 19 張投影片，以及這將如何轉化為我們對 2025 年的全年展望。由於新的 HVAC 項目、續約管道和房地產通路的業績優於預期，我們將全年收入預期上調至 20.75 億美元至 20.85 億美元之間。這比我們先前的預測中位數增加了約 1500 萬美元。

Based on this, total revenue is expected to be up 13% in 2025, driven by about 10% from the 2-10 acquisition and 3% from organic growth. Our underlying revenue assumptions include a 10% increase in renewal channel revenue, a 12% increase in real estate channel revenue, a 3% increase in D2C channel revenue and a $75 million increase in other revenue.

根據此，預計 2025 年總營收將成長 13%，其中約 10% 來自 2-10 收購，3% 來自內生成長。我們的基本收入假設包括續約通路收入成長 10%，房地產通路收入成長 12%，D2C 通路收入成長 3%，以及其他收入成長 7,500 萬美元。

Turning to operating performance. We are narrowing our gross profit margin expectation to be approximately 55.5%. As previously mentioned, we are increasing our sales and marketing spend during the fourth quarter which translates to full year SG&A in the range of $670 million to $675 million. Taking this combined with the strong third quarter performance, we are raising our full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $545 million to $550 million.

接下來談談營運績效。我們將毛利率預期下調至約 55.5%。如前所述，我們在第四季度增加了銷售和行銷支出，這意味著全年銷售、一般及行政費用將在 6.7 億美元至 6.75 億美元之間。結合強勁的第三季業績，我們將全年調整後 EBITDA 預期上調至 5.45 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間。

As a reminder, our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook also includes interest income and excludes $8 million of 2-10 integration costs and stock-based compensation of approximately $33 million. We are lowering our capital expenditure expectations to approximately $30 million. And lastly, our annual effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 25%. And while we're not providing 2026 guidance today, we look forward to sharing more details on our expectations and priorities during our next earnings call. I will now turn the call back over to Bill for a few closing remarks.

提醒一下，我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 預期還包括利息收入，但不包括 800 萬美元的 2-10 整合成本和約 3,300 萬美元的股票選擇權費用。我們將資本支出預期下調至約 3,000 萬美元。最後，我們的年度實際稅率預計約為 25%。雖然我們今天不提供 2026 年的業績指引，但我們期待在下次財報電話會議上分享更多關於我們的預期和優先事項的細節。現在我將把電話轉回給比爾，請他做幾句總結發言。

Thanks, Jason and Jessica. I wanted to close with a few thoughts. Once again, the Frontdoor has delivered. Our execution has been outstanding, and we have fundamentally changed how we think and how we operate. This has helped to drive record financial performance and cash flows. We are raising our revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook again. And with that, we expect to finish 2025 on a high note.

謝謝傑森和傑西卡。最後我想分享幾點想法。Frontdoor再次不負眾望。我們的執行力非常出色，我們從根本上改變了我們的思維方式和運作方式。這有助於推動公司財務表現和現金流創下歷史新高。我們再次上調了營收和調整後 EBITDA 預期。因此，我們預計2025年將以輝煌的成績結束。

And at the same time, we have made measurable progress on our strategic initiatives, and we remain hyper-focused on driving member growth. Now one final item. Earlier this morning, we announced that Jessica has resigned as CFO and will be succeeded by Jason Bailey effective November 10. We regularly challenge ourselves to make sure we are organized to best leverage and deploy our deep bench of talent.

同時，我們在策略性舉措方面取得了可衡量的進展，並且我們將繼續高度專注於推動會員成長。最後還有一件事。今天早些時候，我們宣布傑西卡已辭去財務長一職，傑森貝利將於 11 月 10 日接任。我們經常挑戰自我，確保組織架構完善，能夠最大限度地利用和調配我們深厚的人才儲備。

As Jessica feels, she has accomplished what she set out to do when she first joined us that led to her decision to resign from the company. To her credit, Jessica has agreed to stay on as an adviser to me through December to ensure a smooth transition. Jessica has made many contributions to our company over the past three years.

潔西卡認為，她已經實現了當初加入我們公司時設定的目標，這也是她決定從公司辭職的原因。值得稱讚的是，傑西卡同意留任擔任我的顧問至 12 月，以確保平穩過渡。在過去三年裡，傑西卡為我們公司做出了許多貢獻。

During her tenure, our revenue and profits have grown to new heights, and we have delivered on our financial commitments to our shareholders. I would like to thank Jessica Ross for her dedicated service as CFO. At the same time, the Board and I are very excited to name Jason Bailey as our next CFO. Jason brings over 25 years of progressive leadership experience in finance and public accounting, including over 15 years of service with Frontdoor and its predecessor.

在她任職期間，我們的收入和利潤都達到了新的高度，我們也兌現了對股東的財務承諾。我要感謝傑西卡·羅斯作為財務長的盡職服務。同時，董事會和我非常高興地宣布任命傑森貝利為我們的下一任財務長。Jason 在財務和公共會計領域擁有超過 25 年的領導經驗，其中包括在 Frontdoor 及其前身公司超過 15 年的服務經驗。

He also has 11 years of public accounting experience at Deloitte and Arthur Andersen. I've had the privilege of working closely with Jason for the past seven years. He knows the home services industry deeply. He is truly an expert in all aspects of our business, and I'm very confident in his ability to lead our finance organization. This will be a seamless transition. With that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.

他也曾在德勤和安達信會計師事務所擁有 11 年的公共會計經驗。在過去的七年裡，我有幸與傑森密切合作。他對家事服務業非常了解。他確實是我們業務各個方面的專家，我對他的領導能力非常有信心，相信他能夠帶領我們的財務部門取得成功。這將是一個平穩的過渡。接線員，請開啟問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Jeff Schmitt, William Blair.

傑夫·施密特，威廉·布萊爾。

Hi, good morning. On the cost inflation, it sounds like it increased to maybe 4% or even 5% in the quarter. It had been trending in the low single digits. Could you talk about what drove that, whether it -- was it mainly tariff impacts just on parts and equipment and it could be temporary?

您好，早安。關於成本通膨，聽起來本季可能上漲了 4% 甚至 5%。此前該數字一直徘徊在個位數低點。您能否談談造成這種情況的原因，例如——主要是關稅對零件和設備的影響，而且這種情況可能是暫時的嗎？

So Jeff, it was not 5%. It was closer to 4%, just about ticking toward 4%, which means we have to call it low to mid. Obviously, for the year, we're still projecting low single-digit inflation. But essentially, you nailed it. It's -- it was a tick up in appliance cost. Most of our another component parts, but our equipment is domestically produced.

所以傑夫，不是5%。實際數值接近 4%，勉強達到 4%，這意味著我們必須將其歸類為低到中等。顯然，就今年而言，我們仍然預計通貨膨脹率將保持在個位數低點。但總的來說，你做得非常出色。是——家電價格上漲了一點。我們的大部分其他零件，但我們的設備都是國產的。

So we have not been hit anywhere near as much by tariffs as some other areas, but appliance has ticked up. But like we said with our dynamic pricing model and with our trade service fee approaches, with the operational execution we have, we feel we're strongly that we're able to manage through that. But it's something we watch.

因此，我們受到的關稅衝擊遠不及其他一些地區，但家電價格卻上漲了。但正如我們所說，憑藉我們的動態定價模式和貿易服務費方法，以及我們現有的營運執行能力，我們堅信我們能夠應對這種情況。但這是我們關注的事情。

Okay. And then could you talk about the promotional strategy that you implemented in the real estate channel what all is going on there? And did that drive an increase in attachment rates in the quarter?

好的。那麼，您能否談談您在房地產通路實施的推廣策略，以及具體情況如何？這是否導致了本季附加保險率的上升？

Yes. I think good news for us is -- as I talked about, the macro environment is improving for us, which enables our -- the initiatives we've undertaken to gain more fuel. Now specific to promotions, we ran a -- generally, we've never run price off promotions. We did do $100 off for the months of July and August.

是的。我認為對我們來說的好消息是——正如我剛才所說，宏觀環境正在改善，這使我們能夠採取更多措施來推動我們的發展。具體到促銷活動，我們開展了一項——通常情況下，我們從未開展過降價促銷活動。7月和8月我們推出了100美元的折扣。

And we also did a partner -- a couple of partner specific promotions that we ran that helped us from our analysis to outpace the real estate market overall. So we're very pleased with certainly the direction and the trajectory of where real estate is going. And as I've said in the call finally.

我們也進行了一些合作夥伴專屬的促銷活動，根據我們的分析，這些活動幫助我們超越了整個房地產市場。因此，我們對房地產的發展方向和軌跡感到非常滿意。正如我在電話裡最後所說。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Maxwell Fritscher, Truist.

Maxwell Fritscher，Truist。

I'm calling in for Mark Hughes. In the nonwarranty section or segment the pilot program, what are your early observations there? What sort of timing and pace are you anticipating for that expansion?

我打電話給馬克·休斯。在試辦計畫的非保固部分或細分領域，您初步觀察到了什麼？您預計此次擴張將以怎樣的時間和速度進行？

Yes. We're shooting -- we're not giving a specific -- we'll talk more about this in February, but we're shooting for it to expand nationwide in 2026. It's a little more complicated than HVAC in the sense of the number of appliances. We have to work through that in our platform and the like. But that's also part of the excitement of it is that we have many opportunities to interact with our members across a variety of appliances.

是的。我們正在計劃——我們不會給出具體時間——我們將在二月份詳細討論此事，但我們的目標是在 2026 年將其推廣到全國。從設備數量來看，它比暖通空調系統更複雜。我們需要在我們的平台等方面解決這個問題。但令人興奮的是，我們有很多機會透過各種家用電器與我們的會員互動。

So the plan is to go nationwide at some point in 2026. We're still working through that and we're still working through the specifics of appliance ordering and the like. But we think it's a real opportunity and our initial impression is this is being well received by our members.

因此，計劃在 2026 年的某個時候將業務拓展到全國。我們仍在研究這個問題，也仍在研究電器訂購等方面的具體細節。但我們認為這是一個真正的機會，而且我們的初步印像是，我們的會員對此反應良好。

Got it. And then a small piece of the overall revenue number here, but the DTC guide of up 3% for the full year, if my math is correct, it implies around a mid-single-digit decline there. So what's driving your thoughts around that segment in 4Q?

知道了。然後，這裡只佔總收入的一小部分，但如果我的計算沒錯，DTC 全年成長 3% 的預期意味著這部分收入將出現大約個位數的下降。那麼，您在第四季度對該細分市場有何看法？

So pricing is with our unit strength, which is what we feel is the number one priority because, obviously, that feeds over time into our renewal book, which is the backbone of the company. So the price reductions that we've done, the promotional pricing strategy has taken that revenue down but we're able to offset it and maintain healthy margins and healthy pricing because of the strength of our retention rates.

因此，定價取決於我們的單位實力，我們認為這是首要任務，因為很明顯，隨著時間的推移，這會影響我們的續約率，而續約率是公司的支柱。因此，我們採取的降價措施和促銷定價策略雖然降低了收入，但由於我們較高的客戶留存率，我們能夠抵消損失並維持健康的利潤率和合理的定價。

So we do give up some revenue upfront with our first-year customers, but we made the strategic decision that that's worth it in order to get our renewal -- get that into the renewal book over time.

因此，我們確實會在第一年放棄一些客戶的收入，但我們做出了策略決策，認為這樣做是值得的，這樣才能獲得續約——隨著時間的推移，將客戶納入續約計畫。

So I'd probably also add that Q4 is impacted by our seasonal adjustment. It's our lowest quarter as we know our guidance.

因此，我可能還要補充一點，第四季會受到季節性調整的影響。據我們所知，這是我們業績預期中最低的一個季度。

Did you get that Max?

馬克斯，你收到那個了嗎？

Yes. Understood. Thank you very much.

是的。明白了。非常感謝。

Sergio Segura, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Sergio Segura，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

Hey, Sergio.

嘿，塞爾吉奧。

Hey Bill. Good morning and good morning, Jessica. I just want to say it was a pleasure working with you and best of luck with what the future holds for you. I had two questions. Maybe first on the member growth in the real estate channel. How much of that success there would you attribute to the market shifting to a buyer's market versus some of your strategic initiatives and the promotional strategy and increased agent engagement that you called out in the presentation?

嘿，比爾。早安，早安，潔西卡。我只想說，與您共事非常愉快，祝您未來一切順利。我有兩個問題。或許首先要關注房地產通路的會員成長。您認為該領域的成功有多少歸功於市場轉向買方市場，又有多少歸功於您在演講中提到的一些策略性舉措、推廣策略以及提高經紀人參與度？

And then on the second question, just for the SG&A for the year, the increase in the outlook. Just provide any more color on where those -- where you're investing those incremental dollars?

然後是第二個問題，僅就本年度的銷售、一般及行政費用而言，預期成長情況如何。請詳細說明一下，你們將把這些新增資金投資到哪裡？

Okay. So on the first one on real estate. I think what -- to your question, which is an insightful one. I think the macro environment improving helps our actions. So it's not that we've suddenly discovered some of these actions of meeting with agents. But the new thing is a promotional program that we talked about earlier.

好的。首先是關於房地產的。我認為——關於你的問題，這是一個很有見地的問題。我認為宏觀環境的改善有助於我們的行動。所以並不是我們突然發現了與代理人會面的這些行為。但真正的新東西是我們之前提到的促銷活動。

So I think that this has enabled us to -- the macro environment has enabled us to fuel some of these actions. So I'm not sure I can differentiate exactly what's macro and what's our promotional pricing. But it is all working together to help us start to turn the corner in real estate.

所以我認為，宏觀環境使我們能夠採取這些行動。所以我不太確定我能不能準確區分哪些是宏觀價格，哪些是我們的促銷價格。但這一切共同作用，幫助我們開始扭轉房地產市場的局面。

Now as far as SG&A, where are we spending money, we're -- as we said in the call, we're pretty pleased with the Warrantina campaign, especially how it's doing relative to home -- potential homebuyers under the age of 45, which is where our marketing team is targeting their efforts. So where we're looking to deploy the extra money is around not only the Warrantina campaign, but what we call the middle of the funnel, which is where consideration is higher.

至於銷售、一般及行政費用，我們把錢花在哪裡了？正如我們在電話會議中所說，我們對 Warrantina 活動非常滿意，尤其是它相對於 45 歲以下潛在購屋者的表現，這也是我們行銷團隊努力的目標群體。因此，我們希望將額外的資金投入 Warrantina 活動以及我們所謂的銷售漏斗中部，也就是消費者考慮度更高的階段。

So you go from the top of the funnel, which is trying to build awareness and the like, to the middle of the funnel where you're building consideration. And then we're pretty excited about some of the things we're doing in digital marketing, as I talked about, where we're enhancing our traditional search engine marketing with the work we're doing with large language models, the ChatGPTs of the world. And then we think we're getting more sophisticated in that and getting higher demand and eventually higher conversion.

所以，你要從漏斗頂部（也就是建立認知度等階段）開始，到漏斗中部（也就是建立考慮階段）。正如我剛才提到的，我們對在數位行銷領域所做的一些事情感到非常興奮，我們正在利用大型語言模型（例如 ChatGPT）來增強我們傳統的搜尋引擎行銷。然後我們認為我們在這方面變得越來越成熟，需求也越來越高，最終轉換率也會越來越高。

And thank you, Sergio. It's been great working with you as well. Yes.

謝謝你，塞爾吉奧。和你一起工作也很愉快。是的。

You'll not hear -- this will not be the last of Jessica Ross.

你不會聽到——這不會是傑西卡羅斯的最後一次亮相。

Happy to hear that. Thank you guys.

很高興聽到這個消息。謝謝大家。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Cory Carpenter, JPMorgan.

科里·卡彭特，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning, Bill, thought it was notable that you mentioned on -- in your prepared remarks, the potential reevaluation of your long-term margin target, that's certainly been a big topic of the date given you're punching above what you said earlier this year.

嘿，早上好，比爾，我覺得值得注意的是，你在準備好的發言稿中提到了對長期利潤率目標的潛在重新評估，鑑於你今年早些時候所說的目標已經高於實際水平，這無疑是本次會議的一個重要話題。

Maybe could you just help us with what's changed since the Investor Day that's giving you the confidence to potentially do this when you're doing the exercise this year. And Jason, just a very quick question for you. Thinking you told us organic revenue, I think you expect to be 3% for the full year. Are you able to comment on what organic revenue growth was in the quarter?

您能否幫我們說說，自投資者日以來發生了哪些變化，讓您有信心在今年的練習中做到這一點？傑森，我有個問題想問你。考慮到你之前告訴我們的是有機收入，我認為你預計全年成長率為 3%。您能否介紹一下本季有機營收成長？

So I'll take the first one. So Cory, I think what's giving us conviction and as I said, we'll -- we'll talk about this more in February. But with our -- with the strength of our margins, the execution we've done, all of the things I talked about in the call, our ability to price and use trade service fees to potentially combat inflation. All of those things together have given us pause to say, look, I think that we have moved to a new level. We're going to work through what that level is.

那我選第一個。所以科里，我認為讓我們充滿信心的，正如我所說，我們會在二月更多地討論這個問題。但憑藉我們強大的利潤率、我們所做的執行、我在電話會議中談到的所有事情，以及我們對貿易服務費的定價和利用能力，我們有可能對抗通貨膨脹。所有這些因素加在一起，讓我們不禁停下來想：我們似乎已經邁上了一個新的階梯。我們將一起探討這個等級究竟是什麼。

But I think that the targets we gave you, which were during a time frame when there was a lot of uncertainty, not that -- well, as we go into the year, there's always uncertainty, but we feel pretty confident in our model, and so we'll be looking to come forward with a reassessment of what we said at Investor Day. So I won't comment specifically on what that will be, but that's what we're working through. We're working through getting our final plans approved by the Board, et cetera. But we'll have lots to tell you in February. Jason, as far as the organic revenue question?

但我認為，我們之前給出的目標是在充滿不確定性的時期內提出的，雖然隨著時間的推移，不確定性仍然存在，但我們對我們的模型相當有信心，因此我們將重新評估我們在投資者日上所說的內容。所以我不會具體評論那會是什麼，但那是我們正在努力的方向。我們正在努力爭取董事會等各方批准我們的最終方案。但二月我們會有很多消息要告訴大家。Jason，關於自然收入的問題？

Yes, Cory, for Q3, we'd say it was mid-single digits, probably three key drivers there. One, to think about our nonwarranty pricing and then there's still some seasonal adjustment. So when you're comparing that, that's why I'd probably pull you back to the full year at 3%.

是的，Cory，第三季我們估計是中等個位數，可能有三個關鍵因素在起作用。首先，要考慮我們的非保固定價，其次，還有一些季節性調整。所以當你進行比較時，這就是為什麼我可能會把你拉回全年3%的收益率。

Okay, great. Thank you both.

好的，太好了。謝謝你們兩位。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As we have no further questions in the queue, this will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝各位女士、先生。由於沒有其他問題需要提問，今天的會議就到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了，感謝您的配合。