Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Frontdoor's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's call is being recorded and broadcast on the Internet. Beginning today's call is Matt Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. He will introduce the other speakers on the call. At this time, we will begin today's call. Please go ahead, Mr. Davis.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 Frontdoor 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音並在網路上播出。今天的電話會議由投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Matt Davis 主持。他將介紹電話會議中的其他發言者。現在，我們將開始今天的通話。請繼續，戴維斯先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Frontdoor's first-quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Frontdoor's Chairman and CEO, Bill Cobb; and Frontdoor's CFO, Jessica Ross.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安，謝謝您參加 Frontdoor 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有 Frontdoor 的董事長兼首席執行官比爾·科布 (Bill Cobb) 和 Frontdoor 的首席財務官傑西卡·羅斯 (Jessica Ross)。

The press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the Investor Relations section of Frontdoor's website, which is located at investors.frontdoorhome.com. As stated on slide 3 of the presentation, I'd like to remind you that this call and webcast may contain forward-looking statements.

今天電話會議中將使用的新聞稿和幻燈片簡報可在 Frontdoor 網站的「投資者關係」部分找到，網址為 investors.frontdoorhome.com。如同簡報第 3 張投影片所述，我想提醒您，本次電話會議和網路直播可能包含前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today. These risk factors are explained in detail in the company's filings with the SEC. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements.

這些聲明受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天討論的結果有重大差異。這些風險因素在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進行了詳細解釋。請參閱我們文件中的風險因素部分，以了解有關我們的前瞻性陳述以及與此類陳述相關的風險和不確定性的更詳細討論。

All forward-looking statements are made as of today, May 1, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout today's call.

所有前瞻性陳述均截至今日（5 月 1 日）做出，除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。我們也會在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

We have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance.

為了更好地幫助您了解我們的財務業績，我們在新聞稿和簡報的附錄中列出了這些術語的定義以及這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

I will now turn the call over to Bill Cobb for opening comments. Bill?

現在我將把電話轉給比爾·科布來徵求他的開場評論。帳單？

Thanks, Matt Davis, and good morning, everyone. Frontdoor, Inc. continues to operate extremely well, and the first quarter was another example of outstanding financial and operational performance. In short, we are off to a terrific start in 2025. As you can see, revenue increased 13% to $426 million.

謝謝，馬特戴維斯，大家早安。Frontdoor, Inc. 持續保持極佳的營運業績，第一季再次展現出卓越的財務和營運表現。簡而言之，2025 年我們將有一個好的開始。如您所見，收入增長了 13%，達到 4.26 億美元。

Net income grew 9% to $37 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 41% to $100 million. Very importantly, our member count grew 7% to 2.1 million members. And finally, our use of preferred contractors has grown to 85% of services performed during the quarter. What makes this even more impressive is that it's being done against a still challenging macroeconomic environment, the down real estate market, high interest rates, the spectre of trade wars and the resulting decline in consumer confidence.

淨收入成長 9% 至 3700 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 成長 41%，達到 1 億美元。非常重要的是，我們的會員數量增加了 7%，達到 210 萬。最後，本季我們對首選承包商的使用率已成長至 85%。更令人印象深刻的是，這項舉措是在宏觀經濟環境依然充滿挑戰、房地產市場低迷、利率高企、貿易戰陰影籠罩以及由此導致的消費者信心下降的背景下實現的。

But despite all of these challenges and more, Frontdoor continues to outperform, and by a lot. But we are not satisfied, not by a long shot. And our number one strategic priority remains growing our member base. Number two, we are focused on growing and scaling revenue from our non-warranty business. And number three, we are optimizing the integration of 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty, which, by the way, remains on track.

但是，儘管面臨所有這些挑戰，Frontdoor 仍然表現出色，而且領先很多。但我們並不滿足，遠遠不滿足。我們的首要策略重點仍然是擴大我們的會員基礎。第二，我們專注於增加和擴大非保固業務的收入。第三，我們正在優化 2-10 房屋買家保固的整合，順便說一下，這項工作仍在按計劃進行。

So let's get into the business details, starting with the DTC channel on slide 6. This continues to be a positive story that began in the middle of last year. As you can see, we ended the first quarter up 15% versus prior year to 310,000 DTC members. This is primarily due to 2-10, but our success here is also due to organic growth of 4%. And since the end of the second quarter of last year, we've now had three consecutive quarters of organic DTC unit growth.

那麼讓我們了解業務細節，從幻燈片 6 上的 DTC 頻道開始。這是自去年年中開始的一個積極的故事。如您所見，第一季我們的 DTC 會員數量較上年同期增加了 15%，達到 31 萬名。這主要歸功於 2-10，但我們的成功也歸功於 4% 的有機成長。自去年第二季末以來，我們已經連續三個季度實現了 DTC 單位有機成長。

Now, the key takeaway for DTC in the first quarter, our actions are working to drive organic unit growth. Demand is up, conversion is up. And as a result, our DTC member count is up. Let that sink in for a moment, especially when, again, you consider the macroeconomic headwinds. It's not a stretch to say we are breathing new life into this category.

現在，第一季 DTC 的關鍵收穫是，我們的行動正在推動有機單位成長。需求上升，轉換率也上升。因此，我們的 DTC 會員數量增加了。讓我們思考這一點，特別是當你再次考慮宏觀經濟逆風時。毫不誇張地說，我們正在為這個類別注入新的活力。

Our success is attributable to several factors. First, the marketing campaign and relaunch of the American Home Shield brand are working. We are targeting audiences better, especially millennials. Our digital advertising is more effective, particularly in the midpoint of the marketing funnel when homeowners are seriously considering a purchase. And we are deploying our media assets in the areas where we have the best potential ROI.

我們的成功歸功於幾個因素。首先，American Home Shield 品牌的行銷活動和重新推出正在發揮作用。我們正在更好地瞄準目標受眾，尤其是千禧世代。我們的數位廣告更有效，特別是在行銷管道的中點，當房主認真考慮購買時。我們正在將媒體資產部署到具有最佳潛在投資回報率的地區。

We are able to do this because our data is better, we more deeply understand the segments of homebuyers and our marketing approach is more targeted. Also, our discounting strategy continues to be a strong and proven lever for driving units. While reported DTC revenue is down 9% for the quarter due to our promotional pricing strategy, our focus is on driving organic unit growth. For Q1, we are pleased that number was 4%. We accept this revenue trade-off due to new member growth being our number one strategic priority and our subsequent ability to renew members at a high rate.

我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們的數據更優質，我們對購屋者的細分群體有更深入的了解，而且我們的行銷方法更有針對性。此外，我們的折扣策略繼續成為推動單位成長的強大且行之有效的槓桿。雖然由於我們的促銷定價策略，本季報告的 DTC 收入下降了 9%，但我們的重點是推動有機單位成長。對於第一季度，我們很高興看到這一數字達到了 4%。我們接受這種收入權衡，因為新會員成長是我們的首要策略重點，我們隨後有能力以高速度續約會員。

Here is the key takeaway. The result of first quarter DTC performance is that we now expect our annual DTC member count to be up from last year. Now let's take a look at the real estate channel. As you know, this channel continues to be a headwind for our business, although there are some signs of improving conditions. According to the latest information from the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, for March 2025, existing home sales slipped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million.

以下是關鍵要點。根據第一季 DTC 的業績結果，我們預計年度 DTC 會員數量將比去年增加。現在我們來看看房地產頻道。如您所知，儘管有一些跡象表明情況有所改善，但該管道仍然對我們的業務構成阻力。根據美國全國房地產經紀人協會 (NAR) 的最新消息，截至 2025 年 3 月，現房銷售量下滑 5.9%，經季節性調整後的年率為 402 萬套。

The median sales price for existing homes climbed to $403,700. That's the 21st consecutive month of price increases. The 30-year mortgage rate averaged nearly 7% as of April 17. And the inventory of unsold existing homes jumped 8.1% to 1.33 million homes, or the equivalent of four months of supply. While growing inventory is a positive sign, the combination of high home prices and elevated mortgage rates continues to keep consumers out of the market.

現有房屋的銷售中位數攀升至 403,700 美元。這是價格連續第21個月上漲。截至 4 月 17 日，30 年期抵押貸款利率平均接近 7%。未售出現有房屋庫存增加 8.1% 至 133 萬套，相當於四個月的供應量。雖然庫存增加是一個積極信號，但高房價和高抵押貸款利率的組合仍然使消費者無法進入市場。

As a result, our first year organic real estate member count is down 6% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year.

因此，我們第一年第一季的有機房地產會員數量與去年同期相比下降了 6%。

Now turning to slide 8 and retention. For the first quarter of 2025, retention was at 79.9%, which includes 2-10. While this does include a lower mix of real estate members, retention continues to perform well due to better engaging members during onboarding and throughout the member journey. This includes an expanded calling program that is reducing the number of cancellations.

現在轉到投影片 8 並保留。2025 年第一季度，保留率為 79.9%，其中包括 2-10。雖然這確實包括較低的房地產會員組合，但由於在入職期間和整個會員旅程中會員參與度更高，保留率仍然表現良好。其中包括擴大呼叫程序，以減少取消通話的次數。

We are also continuing to enhance our member service, especially through increased use of our preferred contractors. And finally, 84% of our members are on monthly autopay. Product differentiation is another reason for our retention success. No one in this industry innovates better than Frontdoor. The release of the AHS app last October and the launch in late February of a true industry differentiator, video chat with an expert are just the latest examples of our innovation and giving members what they want.

我們也將持續加強我們的會員服務，特別是透過增加使用我們的首選承包商。最後，我們 84% 的會員都使用每月自動付款。產品差異化是我們成功留住客戶的另一個原因。在這個行業中，沒有人比 Frontdoor 創新得更好。去年 10 月發布的 AHS 應用程式以及 2 月底推出的真正行業差異化功能——與專家進行視訊聊天只是我們創新的最新例子，旨在滿足會員的需求。

These innovations are a plus for retention. Members love a better and faster experience, and they've responded very well to the app and video chat. Since the launch in late October, the AHS app has been downloaded almost 200,000 times, and members have submitted 80,000 service requests. Video chat with an expert is also a hit. And here's an interesting [tidbit].

這些創新對於保留來說是一個優勢。會員喜歡更好、更快的體驗，他們對應用程式和視訊聊天反應非常好。自 10 月底推出以來，AHS 應用程式已被下載近 20 萬次，會員已提交了 8 萬個服務請求。與專家進行視訊聊天也很受歡迎。這是一個有趣的[小道消息]。

About 17% of the AHS video chats so far have resulted in the expert being able to resolve the problem right over the phone or the expert gave a member the information they needed to fix it themselves. That is a great member experience. Not to mention it's saving us and our members time and money by not having to send a contractor out to the home.

到目前為止，大約 17% 的 AHS 視訊聊天都能夠讓專家直接透過電話解決問題，或者專家會向會員提供他們自己解決問題所需的資訊。這是一次非常棒的會員體驗。更不用說，我們和我們的會員無需派承包商上門，這節省了時間和金錢。

Moving to slide 10, Non-Warranty and Other Revenue. This continues to be a growing part of Frontdoor. We are very proud of our new HVAC program. Demand for it is growing and the number of contractors who want to participate is also growing.

轉到幻燈片 10，非保固和其他收入。這將繼續成為 Frontdoor 不斷發展的一部分。我們對我們的新 HVAC 專案感到非常自豪。對此的需求正在成長，想要參與的承包商數量也在增加。

As such, we are increasing our revenue outlook for 2025 to $105 million. To refresh, this program benefits our members who want to take advantage of our scaled pricing to replace their HVAC, upgrading to a system that is new, more efficient and compliant with the latest refrigerant standards.

因此，我們將 2025 年的營收預期上調至 1.05 億美元。值得一提的是，該計劃將使那些希望利用我們的分級定價來更換 HVAC 系統的會員受益，他們可升級到更新、更高效且符合最新冷媒標準的系統。

Moving to the Moen partnership. As a reminder, we partnered with Moen, starting in California, to provide homeowners access to our plumbing contractors to install a smart water shutoff valve to prevent potential flooding.

轉向與 Moen 的合作關係。提醒一下，我們與摩恩 (Moen) 合作，從加利福尼亞州開始，為房主提供我們的管道承包商來安裝智慧斷水閥，以防止潛在的洪水。

In late March, we expanded this partnership, and we are now in 21 states, with more states expected later this year. Another great addition to other revenue is the new home structural warranty business that came with the 2-10 acquisition. As we've dug into this business, we've been very pleased with the relationship our team has with new homebuilders. We expect the new home structural warranty business to generate $44 million in revenue in 2025.

3 月底，我們擴大了合作夥伴關係，目前已覆蓋 21 個州，預計今年稍後將覆蓋更多州。收購 2-10 後，新的房屋結構保固業務成為其他收入的另一個重要補充。隨著我們深入這項業務，我們對我們的團隊與新房屋建築商的關係感到非常滿意。我們預計新房結構保固業務將在 2025 年創造 4,400 萬美元的收入。

So, on that high note, I'll summarize our first quarter by simply saying, Frontdoor's performance continues to be truly outstanding, both from a financial and operational standpoint. This is a continuation of the tremendous winning streak we've been on now for 12 quarters in a row.

因此，在這一點上，我將簡單地總結我們的第一季度，無論從財務還是營運的角度來看，Frontdoor 的表現仍然非常出色。這是我們連續 12 個季度取得的巨大勝利的延續。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jessica for the specifics of our financial performance. Jessica?

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給潔西卡，讓她來具體介紹一下我們的財務表現。傑西卡？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into the details, there are three items I want to highlight. First, Frontdoor delivered another outstanding quarter as we exceeded expectations for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

謝謝，比爾，大家早安。在介紹細節之前，我想先強調三點。首先，Frontdoor 又一個季度表現出色，營收和調整後 EBITDA 都超乎預期。

Second, we are expecting to generate a record amount of cash this year, and we have a strong financial position that allows us to invest for growth and return excess cash to shareholders. And third, we are raising our full year outlook for revenue by $20 million and adjusted EBITDA by nearly $50 million.

其次，我們預計今年的現金流將創歷史新高，而且我們擁有強大的財務狀況，可以讓我們進行成長投資並將多餘的現金回饋給股東。第三，我們將全年營收預期上調 2,000 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 預期上調近 5,000 萬美元。

Now let's get into the numbers on slide 12, where you can see revenue increased 13% versus the prior year period to $426 million. This was comprised of 2% organic growth and 11% from the 2-10 acquisition. Net income increased 9% to $37 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 41% to $100 million.

現在讓我們來看看第 12 張投影片上的數字，您可以看到營收比去年同期成長了 13%，達到 4.26 億美元。其中包括 2% 的有機成長和 2-10 收購帶來的 11% 的成長。淨收入成長 9% 至 3,700 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 41% 至 1 億美元。

Turning to slide 13 and our earnings per share. Earnings per share increased 13% to $0.49 per share on a GAAP basis. Adjusted earnings per share increased 46% to $0.64 per share. This is slightly above the increase in adjusted net income due to the impact of our share repurchase program.

翻到第 13 張投影片，看看我們的每股盈餘。根據 GAAP 計算，每股收益成長 13% 至每股 0.49 美元。調整後每股收益成長 46% 至每股 0.64 美元。這略高於受我們股票回購計畫影響而導致的調整後淨收入的增幅。

Last year, we repurchased approximately 4 million shares or about 5% of our total share count. We remain confident in our ability to drive sustained EPS growth over time, supported by strong operational execution and elevated buyback activity.

去年，我們回購了約 400 萬股，約占我們總股數的 5%。在強大的營運執行力和高回購活動的支持下，我們仍有信心推動每股盈餘長期持續成長。

Turning to Slide 14. You will see gross profit increased 21% versus the prior year period to $235 million, and gross profit margin improved 380 basis points to a first quarter record of 55%.

翻到幻燈片 14。您會發現毛利較去年同期成長 21%，達到 2.35 億美元，毛利率提高 380 個基點，達到第一季創紀錄的 55%。

Continuing on the topic of margins, let's turn to slide 15. I wanted to take a moment to dig into how Frontdoor proactively addresses cost inflation, including the potential impact of tariffs. Frontdoor's current margin enhancement efforts were bolstered from the learnings coming out of the pandemic. Since then, we've established a heightened focus on tracking current events, economic indicators and monitoring cost trends across the business.

繼續討論邊距的話題，我們翻到第 15 張投影片。我想花點時間深入了解 Frontdoor 如何主動應對成本通膨，包括關稅的潛在影響。Frontdoor 目前的利潤率提升措施得益於疫情帶來的經驗教訓。從那時起，我們就更加重視追蹤時事、經濟指標和監控整個業務的成本趨勢。

As a result, we believe we have much better visibility on our cost drivers. At the same time, we are evaluating these drivers. We are also constantly focused on leveraging our scale to manage inflation. We work very hard to keep our costs down internally before passing along higher costs to our members.

因此，我們相信我們對成本驅動因素有了更好的了解。同時，我們正在評估這些驅動因素。我們也始終致力於利用我們的規模來管理通貨膨脹。我們盡力降低內部成本，然後再將更高的成本轉嫁給我們的會員。

First, we continuously discuss cost and equipment availability with our manufacturing partners. Our supply chain team does an excellent job keeping costs down while ensuring we have the parts and equipment to service our members. Especially in these fluid times, they are focused on leveraging our purchasing power to find new sources of supply to manage prices.

首先，我們不斷與製造合作夥伴討論成本和設備可用性。我們的供應鏈團隊在降低成本的同時，也確保我們擁有為會員提供服務的零件和設備，做得非常好。尤其是在這個動盪的時期，他們專注於利用我們的購買力來尋找新的供應源來管理價格。

Second, our contractor relations team is dedicated to improving cost per service request and strengthening service levels across our contractor network. They continuously work to increase the percentage of our jobs that go to our preferred contractors and at the same time, work to manage each individual contractor to the best cost and service profile in their geography to optimize results.

其次，我們的承包商關係團隊致力於提高每個服務請求的成本並加強整個承包商網路的服務水準。他們不斷努力提高我們首選承包商的工作比例，同時努力管理每個承包商，使其在其所在地擁有最佳成本和服務配置，以優化結果。

The next step in our process is to leverage our dynamic pricing capability, which is always balancing member count and gross margin. We are actively optimizing price across our renewal base, and we customize our pricing strategy to serve each individual member's needs. In 2025, we forecast that we will net to an average overall price increase of about 4%, and we have the ability to amend that trajectory later this year if needed, depending on where inflation lands.

我們流程的下一步是利用我們的動態定價能力，始終平衡會員數量和毛利率。我們正在積極優化整個續訂基礎的價格，並客製化定價策略以滿足每位會員的需求。我們預測，2025 年整體價格平均漲幅將達到 4% 左右，如有需要，我們有能力在今年稍後根據通膨水準調整這一走勢。

Additionally, we have the ability to raise our trade service fee. While this is a less frequently used lever, it does help us manage margins and share higher costs with our members. In summary, we are confident in our strategy to manage cost inflation, and we have multiple levers that we are prepared to pull to protect our margins in this dynamic environment.

此外，我們有能力提高我們的貿易服務費。雖然這是一個不太常用的槓桿，但它確實幫助我們管理利潤並與我們的會員分擔更高的成本。總而言之，我們對管理成本通膨的策略充滿信心，我們準備採取多種手段來保護我們在這種動態環境中的利潤率。

Now let's turn to the first quarter adjusted EBITDA bridge on slide 18. First, we had $32 million of favorable revenue conversion, driven by a 3% increase from price and a 10% increase from volume, primarily from the acquisition of 2-10.

現在讓我們轉到第 18 張投影片上的第一季調整後 EBITDA 橋。首先，我們實現了 3,200 萬美元的良好收入轉換，這主要得益於價格上漲 3% 和銷量增加 10%，這主要得益於對 2-10 的收購。

Second, we had an $8 million decline in contract claims costs. The largest driver of the improvement was favorable claims cost development of $7 million compared to only $1 million in favorable claims cost development in the first quarter of 2024. We also experienced favorable cost trends, which included the benefits of continued process improvements that more than offset normal inflation.

其次，合約索賠成本減少了 800 萬美元。推動這項改善的最大因素是有利的索賠成本發展達到 700 萬美元，而 2024 年第一季有利的索賠成本發展僅為 100 萬美元。我們也經歷了有利的成本趨勢，其中包括持續流程改善的好處，這些好處足以抵消正常的通貨膨脹。

As a result, our cost inflation in the first quarter was essentially flat on a net basis. This was offset by a slightly higher number of service requests per customer. This quarter, we had a $5 million unfavorable weather impact in the HVAC trade, which was offset by a $4 million benefit from lower incidents across our other trades.

因此，我們第一季的成本通膨在淨基礎上基本持平。但每位客戶的服務請求數量略有增加，抵消了這項影響。本季度，HVAC 行業遭受了 500 萬美元的不利天氣影響，但其他行業事故減少帶來的 400 萬美元收益抵消了這一影響。

Moving down to customer service costs and G&A, which increased $4 million and $10 million, respectively. Both increased primarily due to the addition of 2-10.

客戶服務成本和一般及行政費用分別增加了 400 萬美元和 1000 萬美元。兩者的增加主要歸因於增加了 2-10。

In summary, adjusted EBITDA increased to $100 million, which exceeded the midpoint of our outlook by $25 million. Now let me take a moment to unpack the beat, which is obviously different than the comparison to prior year. In short, it was a great quarter with more than half of the beat driven by better-than-expected contract claims costs with the remainder driven by better-than-expected revenue conversion.

綜上所述，調整後的 EBITDA 增至 1 億美元，超出我們預期的中位數 2,500 萬美元。現在讓我花點時間來分析一下節奏，這顯然與去年的節奏不同。簡而言之，這是一個出色的季度，其中超過一半的業績成長得益於好於預期的合約索賠成本，其餘部分則得益於好於預期的收入轉換。

Let's now turn to slide 19 and our statement of cash flows. Net cash provided from operating activities was a record $124 million for the first quarter due to exceptionally strong earnings, primarily comprised of $68 million in earnings adjusted for noncash charges and $61 million of cash provided from working capital and long-term insurance-related accounts.

現在我們來看第 19 張投影片和現金流量表。由於獲利異常強勁，第一季經營活動提供的淨現金達到創紀錄的 1.24 億美元，主要包括調整非現金費用後的 6,800 萬美元收益以及營運資金和長期保險相關帳戶提供的 6,100 萬美元現金。

Net cash provided from investing activities was $47 million and was primarily comprised of the disposal of marketable securities, partially offset by capital expenditures related to technology projects. Net cash used for financing activities was $85 million and was primarily comprised of $70 million of share repurchases as well as $7 million of scheduled debt payments.

投資活動提供的淨現金為 4,700 萬美元，主要包括處置有價證券，部分被與技術項目相關的資本支出所抵銷。用於融資活動的淨現金為 8,500 萬美元，主要包括 7,000 萬美元的股票回購以及 700 萬美元的預定債務支付。

Free cash flow increased 60% to a record $117 million for the first quarter of 2025. Our free cash flow yield is currently at 9%, which is an outstanding value indicator for our share price. We ended the quarter with a total of $506 million in cash.

2025 年第一季度，自由現金流成長 60%，達到創紀錄的 1.17 億美元。我們的自由現金流收益率目前為 9%，這對我們的股價來說是一個出色的價值指標。本季末，我們的現金總額為 5.06 億美元。

This was comprised of $185 million of restricted cash and $322 million of unrestricted cash. We remain focused on using excess cash to buy back shares. In fact, our $322 million of unrestricted cash is after returning $70 million to shareholders in the first three months of the year.

其中包括 1.85 億美元的限制性現金和 3.22 億美元的非限制性現金。我們仍然專注於利用多餘的現金回購股票。事實上，我們的 3.22 億美元非限制性現金是在今年前三個月向股東返還 7,000 萬美元之後獲得的。

While the US economy faces growing uncertainty, we are confident we are well positioned to weather any storm as a result of our strong financial position, as shown on slide 20. Frontdoor has ample liquidity to run the business with $570 million available to us. Our net leverage ratio is about 1.9 times based on Frontdoor's reported financial results.

儘管美國經濟面臨越來越大的不確定性，但我們相信，憑藉著強大的財務狀況，我們有能力抵禦任何風暴，如幻燈片 20 所示。Frontdoor 擁有充足的流動資金來經營業務，我們可以使用 5.7 億美元。根據 Frontdoor 報告的財務結果，我們的淨槓桿比率約為 1.9 倍。

We continue to be in a strong financial position, and our net leverage ratio is below our long-term target of 2 times to 2.5 times. As part of the 2-10 acquisition, we completed our debt financing in December of last year. And as a result, our next debt maturity is nearly five years away.

我們的財務狀況依然強勁，淨槓桿率低於我們的長期目標2倍至2.5倍。作為2-10收購的一部分，我們在去年12月完成了債務融資。因此，我們的下一筆債務距離到期還有近五年的時間。

We have a capital-light business model with capital expenditures at less than 2% of our total revenues. And finally, our strong cash flows and balance sheet provide us with significant flexibility when it comes to capital allocation.

我們採用輕資本業務模式，資本支出不到總收入的 2%。最後，我們強勁的現金流量和資產負債表為我們在資本配置方面提供了極大的靈活性。

Now that is a great transition to slide 21 and our commitment to share repurchases. We have returned over $100 million in cash to shareholders, repurchasing over 2 million shares in the first four months of the year. Given our strong cash flows, we are now increasing our 2025 share repurchase target to at least $200 million.

現在，這是一個很好的過渡，過渡到幻燈片 21 和我們對股票回購的承諾。今年前四個月，我們已向股東返還了超過 1 億美元的現金，回購了超過 200 萬股股票。鑑於我們強勁的現金流，我們現在將 2025 年的股票回購目標提高到至少 2 億美元。

We are very aware of our current share price and multiple, and we are deploying a substantial amount of cash into repurchasing shares this year as we believe our share price remains significantly below our intrinsic value. This would mark the fourth consecutive year of increasing share repurchases and puts us well on the way to achieving our $650 million authorization within the three-year time frame.

我們非常清楚我們目前的股價和本益比，今年我們將投入大量現金回購股票，因為我們認為我們的股價仍然遠低於我們的內在價值。這將是我們連續第四年增加股票回購，並使我們預計在三年內實現 6.5 億美元的授權。

Now turning to slide 22 and our second quarter and full year outlook. For second quarter revenue, we expect a high single-digit increase in our renewals channel, a roughly 15% increase in our real estate channel, a 10% increase in our DTC channel and a $10 million to $15 million increase in other revenue. Taken together, we anticipate second quarter revenue to be between $600 million and $605 million.

現在翻到第 22 張投影片，介紹我們的第二季和全年展望。對於第二季的收入，我們預計續約管道將實現高個位數成長，房地產通路將成長約 15%，DTC 通路將成長 10%，其他收入將增加 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。總體而言，我們預計第二季營收將在 6 億美元至 6.05 億美元之間。

We also expect adjusted EBITDA to come in between $185 million and $190 million. Let's now move to our full year outlook, starting with revenue. We are increasing our revenue outlook to be between $2.03 billion and $2.05 billion. Our revenue guide includes a 2% to 4% increase in realized price as well as a 7% to 8% increase in realized volume. This nets to a $20 million increase from our prior guide, which is split between warranty and other revenue.

我們也預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 1.85 億美元至 1.9 億美元之間。現在讓我們來看看全年展望，首先是收入。我們將營收預期上調至 20.3 億美元至 20.5 億美元之間。我們的收入指南包括實現價格增長 2% 至 4%，以及實現數量增長 7% 至 8%。這比我們之前的指南增加了 2000 萬美元，分為保固收入和其他收入。

We assume a high single-digit increase in the renewal channel, a low to mid-single-digit increase in the D2C channel, a high single-digit increase in the real estate channel and $165 million to $175 million in other revenue.

我們假設續訂管道將實現高個位數成長，D2C 通路將實現低到中等個位數成長，房地產通路將實現高個位數成長，其他收入將達到 1.65 億至 1.75 億美元。

Other revenue now includes $105 million from HVAC sales, $15 million from Moen, approximately $44 million in new home structural warranty revenue and slightly under $10 million of other non-warranty services such as HVAC tune-ups. From a member count perspective, we are raising our outlook. We now expect the number of home warranties to decline 1% to 3% versus the prior 2% to 4% due to the improvements we are seeing in our renewal rates.

其他收入目前包括來自 HVAC 銷售的 1.05 億美元、來自 Moen 的 1500 萬美元、約 4400 萬美元的新房結構保固收入以及略低於 1000 萬美元的其他非保固服務（如 HVAC 調試）。從會員數量的角度來看，我們正在提高我們的前景。由於續保率有所提高，我們預計房屋保固數量將下降 1% 至 3%，而先前的下降幅度為 2% 至 4%。

Moving on to gross profit, where we are raising our full year margin outlook to be between 54% and 55%. This is over a 200 basis point increase versus our prior outlook, which incorporates our favorable first quarter financial results and the continued strong performance of the business. Our margin guide also assumes mid-single-digit cost inflation, which is comprised of low single-digit normal cost inflation and the remainder from tariff and macroeconomic uncertainty.

談到毛利，我們將全年利潤率預期上調至 54% 至 55% 之間。這比我們先前的預期高出 200 個基點，先前的預期綜合了我們第一季良好的財務表現和業務持續強勁的表現。我們的利潤指南還假設中等個位數的成本通膨，其中包括低個位數的正常成本通膨以及關稅和宏觀經濟不確定性的其餘部分。

An unfavorable weather impact of approximately $15 million compared to the prior year as we expect to return to normal weather patterns, specifically as we head into our peak summer season. An increase in customer incidence rate as we have lapsed the prior increases in trade service fees.

與前一年相比，不利的天氣影響約為 1500 萬美元，因為我們預計天氣模式將恢復正常，特別是在我們即將進入夏季高峰期的時候。由於我們已不再提高貿易服務費，因此客戶發生率上升。

Now let's turn to our full year SG&A outlook, which we are increasing to $650 million to $670 million. This is a $10 million increase from our prior outlook as we are increasing our marketing investments to drive member growth. Based on all of these inputs, we are increasing our full year adjusted EBITDA guide to be between $500 million to $520 million.

現在讓我們來看看全年銷售、一般及行政開支預測，我們將其上調至 6.5 億美元至 6.7 億美元。由於我們正在增加行銷投資以推動會員成長，因此這比我們之前的預期增加了 1000 萬美元。基於所有這些輸入，我們將全年調整後的 EBITDA 預期上調至 5 億美元至 5.2 億美元之間。

Our full year outlook also includes $15 million of interest income, $8 million from 2-10 integration costs and reflects stock compensation expense of approximately $31 million. And finally, our full year expectations for capital expenditures and the effective tax rate remain unchanged.

我們的全年展望還包括 1500 萬美元的利息收入、800 萬美元的 2-10 整合成本，並反映約 3,100 萬美元的股票薪酬費用。最後，我們對全年資本支出和有效稅率的預期保持不變。

With that, I will now turn it back to Bill before opening it up to Q&A.

說完這些，現在我將話題轉回比爾，然後開始問答環節。

Thanks, Jessica. I want to close with some quick final thoughts before we take your questions. Let's start with valuation. At our high point in early 2021, Frontdoor was valued at about 18 times adjusted EBITDA. Now I understand that the valuation of many companies has been reduced due to the recent market volatility.

謝謝，傑西卡。在回答你們的問題之前，我想先簡單說幾句。讓我們從估值開始。在 2021 年初的最高點，Frontdoor 的估值約為調整後 EBITDA 的 18 倍。現在我明白了，由於最近的市場波動，許多公司的估值都被降低了。

But we now sit at a multiple of [8] on our current midpoint guide of $510 million in adjusted EBITDA. That's more than 50% below our high point. The math here is screaming that Frontdoor is undervalued. We are clearly not an 8 times multiple company with the great results we continue to post. But here's why I feel confident in my assertion that we are undervalued.

但現在，我們調整後的 EBITDA 已達到目前中點指引 5.1 億美元的 [8] 倍。這比我們的最高點低了 50% 以上。這裡的數學計算顯示 Frontdoor 被低估了。從我們不斷取得的出色業績來看，我們顯然不是一家本益比達到 8 倍的公司。但這就是為什麼我堅信我們被低估了。

Number one, as I said, Frontdoor has delivered. As you saw from our results, we continue to operate extremely well from both a financial and operational perspective. Again, this makes 12 consecutive quarters that we've beaten consensus.

首先，正如我所說，Frontdoor 已經實現了交付。正如您從我們的業績中看到的，無論從財務還是營運角度來看，我們的營運都非常好。再次，這意味著我們已連續 12 個季度超出預期。

Number two, we are extremely well positioned. To reiterate, we've raised guidance nearly across the board, full year revenue in warranty and non-warranty, member count, gross profit margin, share repurchases, and importantly, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance by nearly $50 million. And don't forget, we generate an amazing amount of free cash flow. In short, we have a very strong financial position.

第二，我們處於極為有利的位置。重申一下，我們幾乎全面提高了指導價，包括保固和非保固方面的全年收入、會員數量、毛利率、股票回購，而且重要的是，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 指導價提高了近 5000 萬美元。別忘了，我們產生了驚人的自由現金流。簡而言之，我們的財務狀況非常強勁。

And number three, we are ready for tomorrow. We now have three months of hard data on 2025. We feel very good about Q2, and we are well prepared. While no business is recession-proof, we have weathered tough times before. For example, we learned a lot during COVID. These learnings are serving us well as we navigate the macroeconomic uncertainty that continues to persist. The point is we know how to work through these issues. We have planned accordingly, and we are executing. These are the reasons why we continue to be successful and why I believe we will remain so for the foreseeable future.

第三，我們已經為明天做好準備了。我們現在有關於2025年三個月的硬數據。我們對第二季度感覺非常好，並且我們已經做好了充分的準備。雖然沒有任何一家企業能夠免受經濟衰退的影響，但我們以前也曾渡過艱難時期。例如，我們在新冠疫情期間學到了很多。當我們應對持續存在的宏觀經濟不確定性時，這些經驗對我們很有幫助。關鍵是我們知道如何解決這些問題。我們已經制定了相應的計劃，並且正在執行。這些就是我們不斷取得成功的原因，也是我相信在可預見的未來我們仍將保持成功的原因。

With that, we are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please open the line.

現在，我們就可以回答你們的問題了。接線員，請接通線路。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指示）

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you very much. Congratulations on the quarter. Bill, what about the tariffs? Any impact on, say, HVAC equipment or anything else that's important for your Home Warranty business?

是的，非常感謝。恭喜本季。比爾，關稅怎麼樣？這會對您的房屋保固業務，例如暖通空調設備或其他重要設備產生什麼影響嗎？

Yes. As we said, we've had virtually no inflation in Q1, and that was -- and actually HVAC was contributed to that in a big way. It was actually down. Now, having said that, we do see a couple of suppliers who are raising their prices. We then move our supply around.

是的。正如我們所說，第一季我們幾乎沒有通貨膨脹，而暖通空調實際上是造成通貨膨脹的重要因素。它確實倒下了。話雖如此，我們確實看到一些供應商正在提高價格。然後我們轉移我們的供應。

So I think that, as Jessica laid out in the guidance, I think we've covered it really well. But we're staying nimble on this and staying very close to our contractors, et cetera. So who knows where those -- where tariffs are going, but we think we've built sufficient conservatism in the second half that we think we have amply covered the tariff issue.

因此我認為，正如傑西卡在指南中所述，我們已經涵蓋得非常好了。但我們對此保持靈活，並與我們的承包商保持密切聯繫，等等。所以誰知道關稅將會走向何方，但我們認為我們在下半年已經建立了足夠的保守主義，我們認為我們已經充分解決了關稅問題。

Understood. And how about the latest thinking on the new refrigerant, the impact perhaps on repairs if you have to do a more thorough repair based on the new refrigerant? On the other hand, maybe you sell more units in the on-demand business. How are you thinking about that?

明白了。那麼，對於新冷媒的最新看法如何？如果您必須根據新冷媒進行更徹底的維修，這可能會對維修產生影響嗎？另一方面，也許你在按需業務中銷售更多的產品。您對此有何看法？

Yes. So a couple of things, Mark. So we're working through the old equipment right now. There's still some available. We've done a good job of securing that equipment. So we continue to generate that. We're also obviously on to the new equipment with the better standards that we referred to in the script. So, at this point, it has been a benefit to us. We may have -- with the new equipment, we may have to replace whole systems. But so far, we've worked through that.

是的。馬克，有幾件事。所以我們現在正在處理舊設備。還有一些可用。我們在保護該設備方面做得很好。因此我們將繼續創造這種局面。我們顯然也採用了劇本中提到的具有更好標準的新設備。所以，從這一點來看，它對我們來說是有益的。我們可能—有了新設備，我們可能必須更換整個系統。但到目前為止，我們已經解決了這個問題。

We do feel really good about where we're at right now. We have raised our guidance for the year, but we're managing this very closely. It's a year where we're in transition, but I really give our contractor relations team and our supply chain team and the marketing team and everybody -- they've done a really nice job of managing through this.

我們對於目前的狀況確實感覺很好。我們已經提高了今年的業績預期，但我們正在非常嚴格地管理它。這是我們處於轉型期的一年，但我真的對我們的承包商關係團隊、供應鏈團隊、行銷團隊和每個人都表示感謝——他們在管理這個問題上做得非常出色。

And then one final, if I might. The reserve gains in the quarter, how much of that was your Home Warranty as opposed to the 2-10, or let's just say favorable development?

如果可以的話，我再說最後一個。本季的儲備收益中，有多少是您的房屋保固收益，而不是 2-10，或我們只能說是有利的發展？

In terms of favorable development -- is that what you said for? It just was about $7 million. We didn't break that out between 2-10 and the remainder of the company.

就有利發展而言—這是您所說的嗎？大約是 700 萬美元。我們沒有在 2-10 和公司其他部分之間進行細分。

Would you like to break that out now?

你想現在就解決這個問題嗎？

Frontdoor mostly.

主要是前門。

Yeah, okay. Very good. Thank you.

嗯，好的。非常好。謝謝。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Jeff Schmitt, William Blair.

傑夫施密特、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning. On the number of service requests, they were higher in the quarter due to unfavorable weather. But I guess when you back that out, what was the trend? And do you still expect them to normalize to $4 million for the year? Or is it just a little too early to tell?

嗨，早安。就服務請求數量而言，由於天氣惡劣，本季的服務請求數量有所增加。但我想，當你回過頭來看時，趨勢是什麼？您是否仍預計今年的銷售額將恢復到 400 萬美元？還是現在說這個還太早？

Yes, Jeff, I would say that the number of incidents increase was really driven by 2-10 and the addition of 2-10. But we're still anticipating, as I said at Investor Day, about $4 million for the year.

是的，傑夫，我想說事件數量的增加實際上是由 2-10 和 2-10 的增加所驅動的。但正如我在投資者日所說的那樣，我們仍然預計今年的收入約為 400 萬美元。

Yes. Because you remember, Jeff, we had dipped below $4 million, but then as we've added 2-10.

是的。因為你記得，傑夫，我們曾經跌至 400 萬美元以下，但後來我們又增加了 2000 萬美元。

It's back up.

它又恢復了。

Right.

正確的。

Okay. That makes sense. And then unit growth in the direct channel continues to be good. How often did you run promotions during the quarter? And how sustainable do you think that is? I mean, can you continue to run promotions at this level? Or do you think you're going to have to sort of spread them out?

好的。這很有道理。直接渠道的單位成長持續良好。本季您進行促銷活動的頻率是多少？您認為這種做法的可持續性如何？我的意思是，你能繼續以這種水平進行促銷嗎？或者您認為您必須將它們分散開來？

So interestingly, this year we've taken a little bit different approach to our promotional pricing. We have been running month-long events last year primarily. We changed our strategy this year where we're pulsing events, shorter duration, and I think it's been successful. So we actually feel good about continuing on with the pulsing strategy that we have now. We think we can sustain this.

有趣的是，今年我們對促銷定價採取了略有不同的方法。我們主要在去年舉辦了為期一個月的活動。我們今年改變了策略，舉辦脈衝式活動，縮短活動持續時間，我認為這是成功的。因此，我們實際上很高興能夠繼續推行我們現有的脈衝策略。我們認為我們可以維持這種狀態。

As I said in my remarks, we're going to accept a revenue offset because our number one priority is to drive member count, and that's driven by the way we are running our renewal book where we continue to have high retention. So this is going to pay out -- we think it's paying out now. We're covering up some of the revenue shortfall with other revenue and the strength with renewals. So the whole thing is -- the whole mix is working well together, I feel. So we're going to continue this for the foreseeable future.

正如我在發言中所說，我們將接受收入抵消，因為我們的首要任務是推動會員數量，而這取決於我們運行續訂簿的方式，在這種方式下，我們繼續保持較高的保留率。所以這將會得到回報——我們認為它現在就會得到回報。我們利用其他收入彌補部分收入缺口，並透過續約來彌補收入實力。所以整件事情是──我覺得整個組合運作得很好。因此，在可預見的未來，我們將繼續這樣做。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Sergio Segura, KeyBanc.

KeyBanc 的 Sergio Segura。

Hey, Sergio.

嘿，塞爾吉奧。

Good morning, Sergio.

早安，塞爾吉奧。

Hey Bill, hey Jessica. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

嘿，比爾，嘿，潔西卡。早安.感謝您回答這個問題。

I have a few. I guess the first one is just on the outperformance you guys saw in the quarter. It looks like that was primarily driven by renewals revenue above the outlook you provided last quarter. So curious if you could provide any color on what drove the outperformance relative to your expectations? Was that more price or volume driven?

我有幾個。我想第一個問題只是關於你們在本季看到的優異表現。看起來這主要是由於續訂收入高於您上個季度提供的預期。所以我很好奇，您是否可以解釋一下是什麼推動了業績超出您的預期？這主要是由價格還是數量決定的？

Well, so I think a couple of things. It was probably more of the non-warranty. So it was split between non-warranty and warranty and renewals, as you said. On the non-warranty side, that's a split between HVAC and Moen. And then renewals, again, that was really just stronger renewals and which is continued strength in how we're improving the member experience. So mostly from a volume perspective there.

嗯，我想了幾點。這可能更多地屬於不保固的情況。因此，正如您所說，它分為非保固和保固及續保。在非保固方面，HVAC 和 Moen 之間存在分歧。然後是續約，這其實只是更強大的續約，也是我們改善會員體驗的持續力量。所以主要是從數量的角度來看。

And then just on the margin side, more than half of the beat was really due to contract claims costs with the remainder driven by revenue conversion dropping down. As I just said, we had about $7 million in favorable development. We also had better-than-expected costs. As Bill said, we had normal inflation, but when you offset that with process improvements and trade service fees, we landed about flat and then also better-than-expected incidence rate, which was driven by some weather and favorability across all the other trades.

就利潤率而言，超過一半的利潤成長實際上是由於合約索賠成本造成的，其餘部分則是由於收入轉換率下降造成的。正如我剛才所說，我們在有利發展方面取得了約 700 萬美元的成果。我們的成本也比預期好。正如比爾所說，我們的通貨膨脹率正常，但是當你透過流程改善和貿易服務費來抵消通貨膨脹率時，我們的通貨膨脹率基本上持平，而且好於預期，這是受到天氣和其他所有行業的有利因素推動的。

Sergio, I think the -- one of the key points here is we're building a portfolio now which enables us -- if you think about what I just said about DTC pricing, so we're accepting a revenue shortfall because our other revenue is performing so well. Our renewal revenue is performing so well. So the mix is coming together in a really nice way that we can balance our top line and then deliver outstanding results on the bottom line.

塞爾吉奧，我認為——這裡的關鍵點之一是我們現在正在建立一個投資組合，這使我們能夠——如果你想想我剛才所說的 DTC 定價，那麼我們接受收入短缺，因為我們的其他收入表現非常好。我們的續訂收入表現非常好。因此，這種組合以一種非常好的方式結合在一起，我們可以平衡我們的營收，然後在盈利方面取得出色的成果。

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. I guess the second question I had was in response to Mark's question. Bill, I think you said that some suppliers are raising prices and you're moving around where you're purchasing some parts. I just -- when I take a step back, thinking historically when suppliers do this, I guess, when do other suppliers respond to that or just -- either competitors raising prices or just rising input costs in the past? And is there any reason to think that this would be different this time around given the current macroeconomic environment?

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。我想我的第二個問題是回答馬克的問題。比爾，我想你說過一些供應商正在提高價格，而你正在改變採購某些零件的地點。我只是——當我退一步思考，從歷史上看，當供應商這樣做時，我想，其他供應商什麼時候會對此做出反應，或者只是——競爭對手提高價格或只是過去提高投入成本？鑑於當前的宏觀經濟環境，是否有理由認為這次的情況會有所不同？

Yes. So let me take it first, and Jessica, if you want to add anything. So let me break it down, Sergio, that we're looking at water heaters, we're looking at HVAC equipment, we're looking at appliances, and then there's a whole parts component. We have not seen inflation in parts to date. We get a lot of our parts from China, so we're waiting to see what impact that will have.

是的。所以讓我先說一下，潔西卡，如果你想補充什麼的話。所以，塞爾吉奧，讓我來分解一下，我們正在看熱水器，我們正在看暖通空調設備，我們正在看家用電器，然後還有整個零件組件。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到部分地區出現通貨膨脹。我們的許多零件都來自中國，所以我們正在等待觀察這會產生什麼影響。

And we have built in what we think is enough in the second half in the guide to account for that. With regard to the other areas, suppliers are kind of eyeing each other as they go forward and as we work with them. Some of the contracts we already have locked in through dates in 2025. So I think on balance, we feel good about the way our supply chain team has been able to manage that through. But we'll see where it nets out.

我們在指南的後半部分已經加入了我們認為足夠的內容來解釋這一點。至於其他領域，供應商在前進的過程中以及在我們與他們合作的過程中都在互相關注。我們已經鎖定了部分合同，有效期至 2025 年。因此我認為總的來說，我們對供應鏈團隊能夠解決這個問題的方式感到滿意。但我們將拭目以待它最終的結果。

But as Jessica pointed out, with our pricing and the way we're monitoring all this, we think we've got things covered. Knowing that, like with every company that's facing the uncertainty that's existing today, we have to be nimble in our responses.

但正如傑西卡指出的那樣，憑藉我們的定價和監控方式，我們認為我們已經準備好了。我們知道，就像每一家面臨當今不確定性的公司一樣，我們必須靈活應對。

Yes. And I would just add, as I said in my prepared remarks, like this is not new behavior for us now. Coming out of the pandemic we've really built a strength, I'd say, in our supply chain team. And so these relationships that we've built historically are what really are putting us in a good position to be able to leverage our purchasing power and make sure that we are protecting supply and pricing heading into these times

是的。我想補充一點，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，這對我們來說並不是新的行為。我想說，走出疫情後，我們的供應鏈團隊確實增強了實力。因此，我們過去建立的這些關係確實使我們處於有利地位，能夠利用我們的購買力，並確保我們能夠保護供應和定價。

Got it. Thank you. Very helpful in my thoughts.

知道了。謝謝。對我的想法非常有幫助。

Thanks, Sergio.

謝謝，塞爾吉奧。

Danny Pfeiffer, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的丹尼菲佛。

Hey, Danny.

嘿，丹尼。

Hey, thanks. Hey, how's it going? Thanks for the questions. For the first, Jessica, in your prepared remarks, I think you guided to 10% growth in D2C in 2Q. Can you maybe just parse out what drives that implied sequential growth in the quarter? And then I've got a follow-up.

嘿，謝謝。嘿，最近怎麼樣？感謝您的提問。首先，傑西卡，在你準備好的發言中，我認為你預測第二季 D2C 的成長率為 10%。您能否分析一下推動本季環比成長的因素是什麼？然後我有一個後續行動。

I mean I think as Bill said, we are going -- I'd say, going hard actively using the discounting strategy, which has been working. And so that momentum is flowing through, and we're expecting to see that goodness in Q2.

我的意思是，我認為正如比爾所說，我們正在努力積極地使用折扣策略，這種策略一直很有效。因此，這種勢頭正在持續，我們預計第二季將出現良好表現。

Got you. And then on the second, can you maybe expand on what gives you the confidence to raise the 2025 gross margin guide this early in the year and whether you're assuming the current tariff rates implemented today remain, especially on China? Thanks.

明白了。然後關於第二個問題，您能否詳細說明一下是什麼讓您有信心在今年年初提高 2025 年的毛利率指南，以及您是否假設目前實施的關稅稅率保持不變，尤其是對中國？謝謝。

Yes. No, I mean, essentially, what we're doing is we're taking the goodness we saw in Q1 and flowing that through to the full year. We talked about we had flat inflation. And as you can tell by our Q2 guide, we're expecting that goodness to flow through to Q2 as well. However, with the uncertainty on the tariffs, we've guided to mid-single-digit inflation for the full year.

是的。不，我的意思是，本質上，我們正​​在做的是將第一季看到的好處延續到全年。我們談到通貨膨脹持平。正如您從我們的 Q2 指南中看到的那樣，我們預計這種良好的勢頭也將延續到 Q2。然而，由於關稅的不確定性，我們預計全年通膨率將達到中等個位數。

And so that really implies if we've got low on the front half, mid to high on the back half. So what I said was we would probably have low single-digit inflation absent tariffs. You add a couple of points on there. We've said publicly 1% translates to about $10 million in cost. So you can anticipate about $20 million to $30 million in the back half, again, which is essentially the impact of the tariff uncertainty.

所以這實際上意味著，如果我們把前半部放在低處，那麼後半部就放在中高處。所以我說的是，如果沒有關稅，我們的通膨率可能會處於個位數的低水準。您在此添加幾點。我們曾公開表示，1% 相當於約 1,000 萬美元的成本。因此，你可以預期下半年的損失約為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元，這基本上是關稅不確定性的影響。

And then we also added, Danny, about $15 million of normalized weather. We've had weather favorability in the last couple of years. So we can't just count on that every year. Plus as Jessica pointed out in her remarks, the amount of incidents we feel will go up to more normalized levels. So it's circa $50 million or so that we've built into the guide, and it still nets out to a gross margin guidance between 54% and 55%.

然後，丹尼，我們還增加了約 1500 萬美元的正常天氣。過去幾年我們的天氣狀況良好。所以我們不能每年都依賴這一點。另外，正如傑西卡在評論中指出的那樣，我們認為事件的數量將上升到更正常的水平。因此，我們在指南中納入了大約 5,000 萬美元，並且仍然達到了 54% 至 55% 之間的毛利率指引。

A 200 bps increase. So we're feeling really good about the balance of taking the performance in the front half, but that we're in a position that we can put some caution in there and still feel good about our margin rate.

增加 200 個基點。因此，我們對前半部分的表現平衡感到非常滿意，但我們可以採取一些謹慎的態度，並且仍然對我們的利潤率感到滿意。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thanks Danny.

謝謝丹尼。

Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer.

伊恩·扎菲諾，奧本海默。

Hey, Ian

嘿，伊恩

Hi, Ian.

你好，伊恩。

Hey, good morning. This is actually Isaac Sellhausen on for Ian. Thanks for taking the questions, congrats on the strong quarter. Yes. My first question is on the real estate side. Guidance calls for the high single-digit increase this year.

嘿，早安。這實際上是 Isaac Sellhausen 為 Ian 所做的。感謝您回答問題，恭喜本季業績強勁。是的。我的第一個問題是關於房地產方面的。指導意見要求今年實現高個位數成長。

I believe you mentioned you expect 15% growth in the second quarter. So maybe help us understand what drives that growth given how existing home sales have trended through the start of the year? And do you assume a rebound? Or is promotional activity in the AHS relaunch helping drive some of that growth? Thanks.

我相信您曾提到您預計第二季的成長率為 15%。那麼，考慮到今年年初現有房屋銷售的趨勢，也許可以幫助我們了解推動這種成長的因素是什麼？您認為會出現反彈嗎？或者 AHS 重新推出的促銷活動是否有助於推動部分成長？謝謝。

Well, I think we -- it's the addition of 2-10, which has a very strong real estate portfolio. So that's, I think, contributing greatly. We did have improved unit performance, but it was down 6% versus last year we were down close to 10%. So the combination of the addition of 2-10 and slightly improved performance in real estate -- in organic real estate leads to that. So I think it all nets out too. But the answer to your question is more specifically primarily 2-10.

嗯，我認為我們——這是 2-10 的補充，它擁有非常強大的房地產投資組合。所以，我認為這貢獻巨大。我們的單位表現確實有所提高，但與去年相比下降了 6%，去年則下降了近 10%。因此，2-10 的增加和房地產（有機房地產）業績的略微改善相結合，導致了這一結果。所以我認為一切都很順利。但你的問題的答案更具體地主要是 2-10。

Okay. Understood. And then just a follow-up on the retention rate, it was super strong this quarter at around 80%. I think you went through a couple of the main drivers of that. I think part of it is the mix shift. Maybe help us understand how you expect that to trend through the year? And then anything else you could highlight on some of the drivers of retention? Thanks.

好的。明白了。然後對留存率進行跟踪，本季度的留存率非常強勁，約為 80%。我認為您已經了解了其中幾個主要驅動因素。我認為部分原因是混合轉變。也許可以幫助我們了解您預計全年的趨勢如何？然後，您還能強調一些關於保留的驅動因素嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, we, this is a grinding initiative for the entire company. We have a lot of people lined up against this because this is the backbone of our company. We pointed out in this time that we've introduced this expanded calling program that has reduced the number of people who canceled, which counts as a as a saved unit. We've got the preferred contractor, which our contractor relations team, the increase in preferred contractors that they've done a nice job on that.

是的，這對我們整個公司來說都是一項艱鉅的舉措。我們有很多人反對這種做法，因為這是我們公司的支柱。我們這次指出，我們已經推出了這個擴展呼叫程序，它減少了取消呼叫的人數，這算是一個已儲存的單位。我們有首選承包商，我們的承包商關係團隊首選承包商的數量有所增加，他們在這方面做得很好。

The marketing folks are working really hard on staying close to our members through the journey, so it's a series of initiatives that excuse me, we take in order to drive that number, and we think that will sustain. I'm not going to project any specific numbers because we're just learning the 2-10 part of the business now, but they have strong attention also, which is one of the things we're attracted to that asset as we pursued it. So it's all coming together quite nicely, but this is something we work at day after day after day.

行銷人員正在非常努力地與我們的會員保持密切聯繫，因此，我們採取了一系列舉措來推動這一數字，我們認為這將持續下去。我不會預測任何具體的數字，因為我們現在才剛剛了解業務的 2-10 部分，但他們也非常關注，這是我們在追求該資產時被吸引的原因之一。所以一切都進展得很順利，但這是我們日復一日努力的事情。

Okay, understood. Thank you very much.

好的，明白了。非常感謝。

The other thing I would point out, Isaac, is this addition, and I talked about it, video chat with an expert. This is really sparking some interest. We did a nice job with one of our (inaudible) ads introducing video chat with an expert. I gave you some of the stats earlier about how we are helping people to fix it themselves, which is a downstream benefit for us from a cost perspective.

艾薩克，我想指出的另一件事是這個附加功能，我透過視訊與一位專家討論過它。這確實引起了一些興趣。我們的一則（聽不清楚）廣告很好地介紹了與專家進行視訊聊天。我之前給了你一些關於我們如何幫助人們自己解決問題的統計數據，從成本角度來看，這對我們來說是一個下游效益。

But we have a lot of interest from our members in -- on video chat. It's a great user experience. And I think that is another thing that is contributing to our retention. So all of these things are coming together to net to that retention number.

但我們的會員對視訊聊天很感興趣。這是一個非常棒的使用者體驗。我認為這是另一個有助於我們留住人才的因素。所以所有這些因素加在一起就形成了這個保留數字。

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

好的，非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, we have reached the end of our question and answer session and indeed the end of the conference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation.

好了，我們的問答環節已經結束，會議也正式結束了。現在您可以斷開線路，享受美好的一天。我們感謝您的參與。