(FTDR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Frontdoor's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded and broadcast on the Internet.

女士們，先生們，歡迎來到 Frontdoor 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音並在互聯網上播出。

Beginning today's call is Matt Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer and he will introduce the other speakers that are on the call.

今天的電話會議首先由投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管馬特·戴維斯 (Matt Davis) 主持，他將介紹電話會議中的其他發言人。

At this time, we'll begin today's call. Please go ahead, Mr. Davis.

這時，我們將開始今天的電話會議。請繼續，戴維斯先生。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Frontdoor's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你，運營商。大家早上好，感謝您參加 Frontdoor 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。

Joining me today are Frontdoor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Cobb, and Frontdoor's Chief Financial Officer, Brian Turcotte. The press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the Investor Relations section of Frontdoor's website, which is located at investors.frontdoorhome.com.

今天加入我的是 Frontdoor 的董事長兼首席執行官 Bill Cobb 和 Frontdoor 的首席財務官 Brian Turcotte。將在今天的電話會議中使用的新聞稿和幻燈片演示可以在 Frontdoor 網站的投資者關係部分找到，該部分位於 investors.frontdoorhome.com。

As stated on Slide 3 of the presentation, I'd like to remind you, this call and webcast may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today.

正如演示文稿的幻燈片 3 所述，我想提醒您，本次電話會議和網絡廣播可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與今天在這裡討論的結果大不相同。

These risk factors are explained in detail in the company's filings with the SEC. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements.

公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細解釋了這些風險因素。請參閱我們文件中的風險因素部分，以更詳細地討論我們的前瞻性陳述以及與此類陳述相關的風險和不確定性。

All forward-looking statements are made as of today, November 3, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

所有前瞻性陳述均於今天 11 月 3 日作出，除法律要求外，公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout today's call. We have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance.

在今天的電話會議中，我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們在新聞稿和演示文稿的附錄中包含了這些術語的定義以及這些非 GAAP 財務措施與其最具可比性的 GAAP 財務措施的調節，以便更好地幫助您了解我們的財務業績。

I will now turn the call over to Bill Cobb for opening comments. Bill?

我現在將把電話轉給 Bill Cobb 以發表評論。賬單？

Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，馬特，大家早上好。

Since taking over the CEO role in June, my leadership team and I have taken quick and decisive action to tackle 1 of the most challenging macroeconomic environments in the company's history, and we are delivering on the initiatives outlined on our last earnings call.

自 6 月接任 CEO 職務以來，我和我的領導團隊採取了迅速而果斷的行動來應對公司歷史上最具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境之一，我們正在實施上一次財報電話會議上概述的舉措。

We are laser-focused on rebuilding the core Home Service Plan business. We are improving execution. We are taking aggressive action to fight inflation and we are reducing our SG&A expense footprint. While we are seeing signs of better days ahead, there is more work to be done as we continue to transform Frontdoor.

我們專注於重建核心家庭服務計劃業務。我們正在改進執行力。我們正在採取積極行動來對抗通貨膨脹，我們正在減少我們的 SG&A 費用足跡。雖然我們看到未來好日子的跡象，但隨著我們繼續改造 Frontdoor，還有更多工作要做。

Let's begin on Slide 4 and the actions we have taken over the last several months. First, we completed a comprehensive review of our SG&A expense footprint that resulted in a 7% workforce reduction, primarily outside of the revenue generating and service-related areas. These actions are working as we have reduced our 2020 SG&A by $45 million from our original outlook.

讓我們從幻燈片 4 和我們在過去幾個月中採取的行動開始。首先，我們完成了對 SG&A 費用足蹟的全面審查，導致裁員 7%，主要是在創收和服務相關領域之外。這些行動正在發揮作用，因為我們已將 2020 年的 SG&A 比最初的預期減少了 4500 萬美元。

Second, consistent with our second quarter comments, our own pricing strategy continues to target a 12% to 13% price increase in 2022 compared to year-end 2021, one of the largest in the company's history.

其次，與我們第二季度的評論一致，我們自己的定價策略繼續將 2022 年的價格目標定為與 2021 年底相比上漲 12% 至 13%，這是公司歷史上最大的漲幅之一。

Third, we are improving execution within our core Home Service Plan business. Under new leadership, we are changing Frontdoor's culture to further optimize how we operate. And lastly, we are working to advance our business transformation initiatives.

第三，我們正在改善核心家庭服務計劃業務的執行力。在新的領導下，我們正在改變 Frontdoor 的文化，以進一步優化我們的運營方式。最後，我們正在努力推進我們的業務轉型計劃。

I have challenged our team to reimagine how Home Service Plans can work better for our customers and our contractors. For example, we recently completed an extensive consumer segmentation study. We have been analyzing the data and expect it will allow us to better meet the needs of different audiences.

我已經要求我們的團隊重新構想家庭服務計劃如何更好地為我們的客戶和承包商服務。例如，我們最近完成了一項廣泛的消費者細分研究。我們一直在分析數據，期望它能讓我們更好地滿足不同受眾的需求。

Let's now turn to Slide 5 and the direct-to-consumer or DTC channel, where we have seen a decline in demand generation for 2 primary reasons. First, rising marketing costs have resulted in fewer leads entering our sales funnel. Second, customers have become more price and discount sensitive, and we have seen the landscape shift as competitors have become more aggressive with price promotions.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 和直接面向消費者或 DTC 渠道，我們看到需求產生下降的主要原因有兩個。首先，營銷成本上升導致進入我們銷售渠道的潛在客戶減少。其次，客戶對價格和折扣變得更加敏感，隨著競爭對手在價格促銷方面變得更加激進，我們已經看到格局發生了變化。

The leaders I brought in to fix these challenges have accomplished a lot over the last quarter. We have refreshed our marketing to drive more demand while also working to improve our conversion rate. Also, we upped our game with some very successful price promotions in September, and we are in the process of running more in the fourth quarter.

我帶來的解決這些挑戰的領導者在上個季度取得了很多成就。我們更新了營銷方式以推動更多需求，同時努力提高轉化率。此外，我們在 9 月份通過一些非常成功的價格促銷活動提升了我們的遊戲水平，我們正在第四季度開展更多活動。

Now turning to Slide 6 and a review of our real estate channel. We are starting to see the housing market moderate as we exit a historically strong seller's market that has existed over the last few years. According to the National Association of Realtors, September data showed existing home sales declined nearly 24% year-over-year and inventory increased to 3.2 months of supply from 2.4 months over the prior year period.

現在轉到幻燈片 6 並回顧我們的房地產頻道。隨著我們退出過去幾年一直存在的歷來強勁的賣方市場，我們開始看到房地產市場溫和。根據全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，9 月份的數據顯示成屋銷售同比下降近 24%，庫存供應從去年同期的 2.4 個月增加到 3.2 個月。

We are also hearing commentary from our real estate brokerage partners that the market is starting to turn. In fact, many real estate companies are working to retrain their agents on best practices, such as utilizing inspections and Home Service Plans to improve the appeal of their listings. These trends should increase the Home Service Plan capture rate as a percentage of existing home sales.

我們還從我們的房地產經紀合作夥伴那裡聽到市場開始轉向的評論。事實上，許多房地產公司正在努力就最佳做法對他們的代理人進行再培訓，例如利用檢查和上門服務計劃來提高其房源的吸引力。這些趨勢應該會增加家庭服務計劃的捕獲率，佔現有房屋銷售的百分比。

However, we are carefully monitoring the level of existing home sales as we head into 2023. We as a significant decline in existing home sales will shrink the potential pool for Home Service Plan purchases.

但是，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們正在仔細監測現有房屋的銷售水平。由於現有房屋銷售的顯著下降，我們將縮小家庭服務計劃購買的潛在範圍。

But as I've said before, regardless of market conditions, I believe we can do a much better job of executing the real estate. I am very excited about what the team is doing to build our sales culture, fix structural misalignments, upgrade our talent and refocus on the most impactful partnerships.

但正如我之前所說，無論市場狀況如何，我相信我們可以在執行房地產方面做得更好。我對團隊為建立我們的銷售文化、解決結構性失調、提升我們的人才以及重新關注最具影響力的合作夥伴關係所做的工作感到非常興奮。

Now let's turn to Slide 7 and the renewal channel. To date, our renewal channel is performing well. In fact, I am pleased to share our blended renewal rate actually increased in the third quarter to approximately 72%. While our customers remain generally inelastic, we are closely monitoring how our higher price increases may affect our customer base -- our customer base over the next several quarters.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 7 和續訂頻道。迄今為止，我們的續訂渠道表現良好。事實上，我很高興與大家分享我們的混合續訂率在第三季度實際上增加到了大約 72%。雖然我們的客戶總體上仍然缺乏彈性，但我們正在密切關注我們更高的價格上漲可能如何影響我們的客戶群——我們未來幾個季度的客戶群。

I want to be very specific about our pricing strategy. Consistent with our second quarter comments, we are still on track to deliver a 12% to 13% price increase by the end of this year. The larger benefit will actually occur in next year, as our pricing actions have been weighted more to the second half of 2022. But to be clear, for 2022, we have an approximately 8% realized price increase versus the prior year. Longer term, we expect renewal rates will gradually rise as we zero-in on creating a better customer experience.

我想非常具體地說明我們的定價策略。與我們第二季度的評論一致，我們仍有望在今年年底前實現 12% 至 13% 的價格上漲。更大的收益實際上將在明年出現，因為我們的定價行動更多地集中在 2022 年下半年。但需要明確的是，到 2022 年，我們實現的價格與上一年相比增長了約 8%。從長遠來看，隨著我們專注於創造更好的客戶體驗，我們預計續訂率將逐漸上升。

In conclusion, I am confident that our financial results will improve from the actions we are taking and as the macro challenges subside, and we are already seeing signs that things might be moving in our direction as we close out 2022.

總之，我相信，隨著宏觀挑戰消退，我們正在採取的行動會改善我們的財務業績，而且我們已經看到跡象表明，隨著 2022 年的結束，事情可能會朝著我們的方向發展。

I will now turn the call over to Brian to review our financial results. Brian?

我現在將把電話轉給布賴恩來審查我們的財務業績。布萊恩？

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。

Please turn to Slide 8, and I'll review our third quarter 2022 financial results. Third quarter revenue increased 3% versus the prior year period to $484 million as a result of a 5% increase from price and changes in customer product mix, which more than offset a 3% decline in customer volume.

請轉到幻燈片 8，我將回顧我們 2022 年第三季度的財務業績。第三季度收入較上年同期增長 3% 至 4.84 億美元，這是由於價格上漲 5% 和客戶產品組合的變化，抵消了客戶數量下降 3% 以上。

Looking at our Home Service Plan channels, third quarter revenue derived from customer renewals increased 8% versus the prior year period due to improved price realization and growth in the number of renewed Home Service Plans.

從我們的家庭服務計劃渠道來看，由於價格實現的改善和更新的家庭服務計劃數量的增長，第三季度來自客戶續訂的收入比去年同期增長了 8%。

First year real estate revenue decreased 30% versus the prior year period, reflecting a continued decline in the number of Home Service Plans in this channel due to the ongoing challenges presented by the seller's market driven in part by extremely low home inventory levels across the U.S.

第一年的房地產收入與去年同期相比下降了 30%，反映出該渠道的家庭服務計劃數量持續下降，這是由於賣方市場帶來的持續挑戰，部分原因是全美極低的房屋庫存水平。

First year DTC revenue increased 8% versus the prior year period with 11% growth driven by improved price realization and a mix shift to higher-priced products, partly offset by 3% lower volume. Third quarter revenue reported in our other channel increased $2 million over the prior year period driven primarily by growth in our ProConnect on-demand home services business.

第一年 DTC 收入比上年同期增長 8%，其中 11% 的增長得益於價格實現的改善和向高價產品的混合轉變，部分被銷量下降 3% 所抵消。我們其他渠道報告的第三季度收入比去年同期增加了 200 萬美元，這主要是由於我們的 ProConnect 按需家庭服務業務的增長。

Gross profit declined 17% in the third quarter versus the prior year period to $210 million, and our gross profit margin was 43%. The gross profit decline was driven by a $58 million increase in contract claims costs, primarily reflecting inflationary cost pressures, which I'll speak to more in a moment.

第三季度毛利潤同比下降 17% 至 2.1 億美元，毛利率為 43%。毛利潤下降的原因是合同索賠成本增加了 5800 萬美元，這主要反映了通貨膨脹成本壓力，稍後我將對此進行更多討論。

Net income decreased $48 million in the third quarter to $28 million, primarily driven by the gross profit decrease, a $14 million goodwill and intangibles impairment charge and $5 million for restructuring.

第三季度淨收入減少 4800 萬美元至 2800 萬美元，主要原因是毛利下降、1400 萬美元的商譽和無形資產減值費用以及 500 萬美元的重組費用。

The $14 million goodwill and intangible assets impairment was driven by a shift in focus to further integrate Streem's technology into the core Home Service Plan business and less focus on selling this technology platform to third-party B2B customers as a SaaS platform.

1400 萬美元的商譽和無形資產減值是由於將重點轉移到進一步將 Streem 的技術整合到核心家庭服務計劃業務中，而不是將這一技術平台作為 SaaS 平台出售給第三方 B2B 客戶。

This resulted in significantly lower projected revenue per Streem. And based on a discounted cash flow analysis performed in connection with preparing our third quarter financial statements, we determined that the carrying amount of the Streem reporting unit exceeded its fair value.

這導致每條 Streem 的預計收入顯著降低。根據為編制我們的第三季度財務報表而進行的貼現現金流量分析，我們確定 Streem 報告單位的賬面價值超過了其公允價值。

The third quarter restructuring charges of $5 million were primarily comprised of a $2 million impairment of certain internally developed software and $3 million of severance and other costs. $2 million of the severance costs were related to the workforce reduction as part of the strategic review of our SG&A expenses we completed in the third quarter.

第三季度 500 萬美元的重組費用主要包括某些內部開發軟件的 200 萬美元減值以及 300 萬美元的遣散費和其他費用。 200 萬美元的遣散費與裁員有關，這是我們在第三季度完成的 SG&A 費用戰略審查的一部分。

Adjusted net income decreased $32 million over the prior year period to $46 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $79 million in the third quarter or $42 million lower than the prior year period.

調整後的淨收入比上年同期減少 3200 萬美元至 4600 萬美元，第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 7900 萬美元，比上年同期減少 4200 萬美元。

Let's move to the table on Slide 9, and I'll provide more context for the year-over-year decline in third quarter adjusted EBITDA. Starting at the top, we had $14 million of favorable revenue conversion in the third quarter versus the prior year period.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 的表格，我將為第三季度調整後 EBITDA 的同比下降提供更多背景信息。從頂部開始，我們在第三季度與去年同期相比有 1400 萬美元的有利收入轉換。

Contract claims costs increased $58 million in the third quarter versus the prior year period, primarily driven by inflationary cost pressures, including higher contractor related expenses and parts and equipment costs. The rate of inflation on a cost per claim basis versus the prior year period was relatively flat with the second quarter at approximately 23%, and the primary cost drivers remain the same.

與去年同期相比，第三季度合同索賠成本增加了 5800 萬美元，這主要是受通貨膨脹成本壓力的推動，包括承包商相關費用以及零部件和設備成本的增加。與去年同期相比，每項索賠成本的通貨膨脹率與第二季度相對持平，約為 23%，主要成本驅動因素保持不變。

Sales and marketing costs decreased $2 million in the third quarter versus the prior year period, primarily driven by reduced investment in our ProConnect on-demand home services business. Service costs also decreased $2 million in the third quarter versus the prior year period, primarily driven by lower labor costs. And finally, G&A costs increased $3 million in the third quarter, primarily due to higher personnel and insurance costs.

與去年同期相比，第三季度的銷售和營銷成本減少了 200 萬美元，這主要是由於對 ProConnect 按需家庭服務業務的投資減少所致。與去年同期相比，第三季度服務成本也減少了 200 萬美元，這主要是由於勞動力成本下降所致。最後，G&A 成本在第三季度增加了 300 萬美元，主要原因是人員和保險成本增加。

While the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, we continue to look for opportunities to improve margins while still investing for growth. Beyond the benefits of taking additional price, our top priority to improve gross margin is to mitigate the impact of claims cost inflation and we continue to work on the initiatives I reviewed last quarter.

儘管宏觀經濟環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們繼續尋找提高利潤率的機會，同時仍在為增長進行投資。除了採取額外價格的好處之外，我們提高毛利率的首要任務是減輕索賠成本通脹的影響，我們將繼續致力於我上個季度審查的舉措。

These include increasing the percent of total jobs assigned to our preferred contractors, expanding our recruiting efforts to increase our contractor count, reviewing all service cost estimates over a certain dollar limit from nonpreferred contractors and continuing to maximize the benefits of our supply management efforts.

其中包括增加分配給我們首選承包商的總工作的百分比，擴大我們的招聘工作以增加我們的承包商數量，審查來自非首選承包商的超過一定美元限額的所有服務成本估算，並繼續最大限度地利用我們的供應管理工作。

As Bill mentioned, we conducted a comprehensive review of our SG&A footprint in the third quarter and reduced our workforce by 7%, which resulted in annual operating savings -- expense savings of over $10 million. I would also note, we all found opportunities to reduce our capitalized spend to improve cash flow by approximately $5 million on an annualized basis.

正如 Bill 所提到的，我們在第三季度對我們的 SG&A 足跡進行了全面審查，並將我們的員工減少了 7%，從而導致年度運營節省——費用節省超過 1000 萬美元。我還要指出，我們都找到了減少資本化支出的機會，以每年將現金流量提高約 500 萬美元。

Please now turn to Slide 10 for a review of our cash flow and cash position. Net cash provided from operating activities was $80 million for the 9 months ended September 30, 2022, which comprised $121 million in earnings adjusted for noncash charges, offset in part by $41 million of cash used for working capital.

現在請轉到幻燈片 10 查看我們的現金流量和現金狀況。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 9 個月，經營活動提供的現金淨額為 8000 萬美元，其中包括 1.21 億美元的非現金費用調整後收益，部分被用於營運資金的 4100 萬美元現金抵消。

Cash used for working capital was primarily driven by seasonality and the impacts on deferred revenue of a decline in the number of first year real estate home service plans. Net cash used for investing activities was $25 million for the 9 months ended September 30, 2022, and primarily comprised capital expenditures related to investments in technology.

用於營運資金的現金主要受季節性因素和第一年房地產家庭服務計劃數量下降對遞延收入的影響所驅動。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日止的 9 個月，用於投資活動的淨現金為 2500 萬美元，主要包括與技術投資相關的資本支出。

Net cash used for financing activities was $74 million for the 9 months ended September 30, 2022, primarily driven by $59 million of share repurchases in the first half of the year. While we didn't repurchase shares in the third quarter, we continue to prioritize share repurchases in our capital allocation strategy and remain committed to returning cash to our valued shareholders.

截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日止的 9 個月，用於融資活動的現金淨額為 7400 萬美元，主要受上半年 5900 萬美元的股票回購推動。雖然我們在第三季度沒有回購股票，但我們繼續在我們的資本配置策略中優先考慮股票回購，並繼續致力於向我們重要的股東返還現金。

However, like many other U.S. public companies, the amount of additional share repurchases, if any, will depend on the macroeconomic environment and how our business performs throughout the rest of this year and into 2023.

然而，與許多其他美國上市公司一樣，額外的股票回購數量（如果有的話）將取決於宏觀經濟環境以及我們在今年餘下時間和 2023 年的業務表現。

Free cash flow calculated as net cash provided from operating activities minus property additions, was $50 million for the 9 months ended September 30, 2022, and we're projecting approximately $85 million of free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2022.

截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 9 個月，自由現金流為 5000 萬美元，計算方式為經營活動提供的淨現金減去財產增加，我們預計截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的年度自由現金流約為 8500 萬美元。

We ended the third quarter with $244 million in cash with restricted net assets totaling $157 million and unrestricted cash totaling $87 million.

我們在第三季度結束時擁有 2.44 億美元現金，其中受限淨資產總計 1.57 億美元，非受限現金總計 8700 萬美元。

I'll now conclude my prepared remarks with our current thoughts regarding the financial outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2022, provided on Slide 11. We expect our fourth quarter revenue to be within a range of $326 million to $336 million, which reflects a mid-single-digit increase in renewal channel revenue versus the prior year period that has more than offset an approximately 30% decline in real estate channel revenue, a low single-digit revenue decline in the DTC channel and lower revenue from both ProConnect and Streem.

現在，我將根據幻燈片 11 中提供的我們目前對第四季度和 2022 年全年財務前景的看法來結束我準備好的發言。我們預計第四季度的收入將在 3.26 億美元至 3.36 億美元之間，這反映了與去年同期相比，續訂渠道收入的中等個位數增長抵消了房地產渠道收入約 30% 的下降、DTC 渠道收入的低個位數下降以及 ProConnect 和 ProConnect 的收入下降流。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $4 million and $14 million, a decline from the prior year period as a result of the inflationary cost pressures and the impact of lower real estate channel revenue.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 400 萬美元至 1400 萬美元之間，由於通脹成本壓力和房地產渠道收入下降的影響，較上年同期有所下降。

Turning to full year. We raised our revenue outlook from last quarter and is projected to be within a range of $1.65 billion to $1.66 billion. The full year revenue growth assumptions include upper single-digit revenue growth in both the DTC and renewal channels and a nearly 30% decrease in the real estate channel driven by the historically challenging sellers' market and extremely low levels of home inventory.

轉向全年。我們上調了上一季度的收入預期，預計將在 16.5 億美元至 16.6 億美元之間。全年收入增長假設包括 DTC 和續訂渠道的高個位數收入增長，以及受歷史上充滿挑戰的賣方市場和極低水平的房屋庫存推動的房地產渠道下降近 30%。

On a consolidated basis, our core Home Service Plan business revenue growth is now expected to be in the low-single digits, mostly driven by 6% growth from higher price and product mix, which more than offset 3% lower volume.

在合併的基礎上，我們的核心家庭服務計劃業務收入增長現在預計將處於低個位數，這主要是由更高的價格和產品組合帶來的 6% 的增長推動的，這抵消了 3% 的銷量下降。

Our overall customer count is expected to decline by approximately 5% in 2022 as a 1% increase in renewal customers will be more than offset by a 30% decrease in real estate customers and a 5% decline in DTC customers.

我們的整體客戶數量預計到 2022 年將下降約 5%，因為續訂客戶增加 1% 將被房地產客戶減少 30% 和 DTC 客戶減少 5% 所抵消。

In regard to customer counts, please note that in an effort to assist you in better understanding our business and trends, we have provided historical customer counts by channel in the appendix of the webcast deck and will update quarterly going forward.

關於客戶數量，請注意，為了幫助您更好地了解我們的業務和趨勢，我們在網絡廣播平台的附錄中按渠道提供了歷史客戶數量，並將在未來每季度更新一次。

Additionally, reductions in ProConnect marketing investments starting in the back half of the year will lower the on-demand full year revenue target to approximately $35 million. Our full year gross profit margin is projected to be approximately 41% driven primarily by the continuation of high-cost inflation, partly offset by higher pricing and process improvement efforts.

此外，從今年下半年開始減少 ProConnect 營銷投資將使按需全年收入目標降至約 3500 萬美元。我們的全年毛利率預計約為 41%，主要受高成本通貨膨脹的持續推動，部分被更高的定價和流程改進工作所抵消。

This projection assumes that inflation will average approximately 20% on a cost per service request basis and the actual number of member service requests will be down approximately 4% in 2022 versus prior year.

該預測假設通貨膨脹率平均約為每項服務請求成本的 20%，而 2022 年會員服務請求的實際數量將比上一年下降約 4%。

We're now targeting full year SG&A to range between $515 million and $520 million, including a stock compensation expense target of approximately $23 million. As Bill mentioned earlier, the $45 million decrease from our original full year SG&A guidance was primarily driven by the successful execution of our expense reduction initiatives.

我們現在將全年 SG&A 的目標定在 5.15 億美元至 5.2 億美元之間，其中包括約 2300 萬美元的股票補償費用目標。正如比爾之前提到的，與我們最初的全年 SG&A 指導相比減少 4500 萬美元主要是由於我們成功執行了費用削減計劃。

Based on these updated inputs, we raised our full year adjusted EBITDA range to be between $185 million and $195 million. And finally, we're projecting our full year capital expenditures to range between $40 million and $45 million and the annual effective tax rate to be approximately 27%. The 300 basis point increase in our annual effective tax rate from the previous estimate in August is primarily driven by the nondeductible goodwill impairment and share-based awards.

根據這些更新的輸入，我們將全年調整後的 EBITDA 範圍提高到 1.85 億美元至 1.95 億美元之間。最後，我們預計全年資本支出在 4000 萬美元到 4500 萬美元之間，年有效稅率約為 27%。我們的年度有效稅率比 8 月份的先前估計增加了 300 個基點，這主要是由不可抵扣的商譽減值和基於股份的獎勵推動的。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Bill for closing comments before Matt opens the question-and-answer session. Bill?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉回 Bill，以便在 Matt 打開問答環節之前結束評論。賬單？

Thanks, Brian. I truly believe that this is an industry that is ripe for innovation. In addition to the work we are doing with the core business, the team has been doing some really innovative work that I'm excited to share with you at our Investor Day on 3/2/23 in Midtown Manhattan.

謝謝，布萊恩。我堅信這是一個創新的成熟行業。除了我們在核心業務方面所做的工作外，該團隊還一直在做一些真正具有創新性的工作，我很高興能在 23 年 3 月 2 日在曼哈頓中城舉行的投資者日與大家分享這些工作。

We are currently in the testing phase and some of our plans will evolve over the next several months. So we aren't going to get into specifics today. But as you can see from Slide 12, we have a great venue lined up and I encourage all of you to try to attend in person.

我們目前處於測試階段，我們的一些計劃將在未來幾個月內發展。因此，我們今天不打算討論具體細節。但正如您從幻燈片 12 中看到的那樣，我們已經安排了一個很棒的場地，我鼓勵大家嘗試親自參加。

With that, I will now hand it over to Matt to open the Q&A session.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給馬特來打開問答環節。

Thanks, Bill. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's open the line for questions.

謝謝，比爾。 （接線員說明）接線員，讓我們打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from the line of Ian Zaffino of Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Ian Zaffino。

This is Isaac Sellhausen on for Ian. I guess starting just on the pricing side, you guys called out the higher pricing in the quarter and the full year guidance assumes, so I guess, higher price and product mix. I guess you had talked about targeting a 12% to 13% price increase this year. I guess how much do we sort of expect that to benefit this year and then into next year?

這是伊恩的艾薩克·塞爾豪森。我想從定價方面開始，你們在本季度提出了更高的定價，並且假設全年指導價格更高，所以我猜，更高的價格和產品組合。我猜你已經談到了今年將價格上漲 12% 到 13% 的目標。我想我們預計今年和明年將從中受益多少？

Yes. Isaac, I had mentioned, and I know it gets a little confusing because of the way we have to recognize revenue. For 2022, the realized price increase will be 8%.

是的。艾薩克，我曾提到過，而且我知道由於我們必須確認收入的方式，這有點令人困惑。到 2022 年，已實現的價格漲幅為 8%。

Okay. Great. And then just on the contract claims costs, I guess, could you give us a little bit of color on sort of the cost and the inflation side between just contractor expenses and types of parts and equipments? I guess is there anything decelerating? Or what have you seen accelerate from the last quarter?

好的。偉大的。然後就合同索賠成本而言，我想，您能否就承包商費用與零件和設備類型之間的成本和通貨膨脹方面給我們一些顏色？我想有什麼減速嗎？或者你從上個季度看到了什麼加速？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Great question. Yes, we saw really -- we think our inflation from our contractors is stabilizing. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the inflation rate on a service request basis was about the same from second quarter year-over-year. So that tells me it's stabilizing. I can't quite say moderation yet, but that could be coming. The benefits in the quarter really from lower service requests, which was good news. And also, if you look at our overall EBITDA beat, we had favorable SG&A as well. So overall, it was a good quarter in that respect. Is that helpful? .

是的。謝謝你的問題。很好的問題。是的，我們確實看到了——我們認為我們承包商的通貨膨脹正在穩定。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，基於服務請求的通貨膨脹率與第二季度同比大致相同。所以這告訴我它正在穩定。我還不能完全說適度，但這可能會到來。本季度的收益確實來自較低的服務請求，這是個好消息。而且，如果你看一下我們的整體 EBITDA 節拍，我們也有有利的 SG&A。所以總的來說，在這方面這是一個很好的季度。這有幫助嗎？ .

Isaac, the other thing I would add, our contractor relations team has really redoubled efforts to work through this sort of unprecedented increase in inflation and at least in the last 20 years or so. So we are still cautious. We're working closely with them. We -- things happen in the economy and saw the change in interest rates again yesterday. So we're being cautious. But I think we feel like we have our arms wrapped around this and that while I think Brian said it well, we're not exactly saying things have moderated or stabilized. I think we have a better understanding of it and I think we're even closer to it.

艾薩克，我要補充的另一件事是，我們的承包商關係團隊確實加倍努力，以應對這種前所未有的通貨膨脹增長，至少在過去 20 年左右是這樣。所以我們還是很謹慎的。我們正在與他們密切合作。我們——經濟中發生了一些事情，昨天再次看到了利率的變化。所以我們很謹慎。但我認為我們覺得我們已經對此抱有信心，雖然我認為 Brian 說得很好，但我們並不是說事情已經緩和或穩定下來。我認為我們對它有了更好的理解，而且我認為我們離它更近了。

And as you know, I think Brian has said this repeatedly, the majority of that costs are in the labor side. The labor rates, labor -- even labor shortages, fuel, et cetera, and the other side is the parts and equipment piece, which has increased. But I think, Brian, it's fair to say that is probably we're able to point to even more a stabilized, wouldn't you say?

如你所知，我認為布賴恩已經反复說過，大部分成本都在勞動力方面。勞動力率、勞動力——甚至勞動力短缺、燃料等等，另一方面是零部件和設備，它已經增加了。但我認為，布賴恩，可以公平地說，我們可能能夠指出更加穩定，你說不是嗎？

Yes, I agree.

是的我同意。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just last one, if I could squeeze it in. I know you guys provided the Home Service Plans account by channel, which is helpful to break it out. I know, obviously, you gave the guidance for the full year on the customer growth. Maybe if you could just provide some details on how you're thinking about 2023 in terms of renewals and the DTC channel obviously, you gave some color on the real estate side, but that would be helpful just to parse through the 3 different channels.

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是最後一個，如果我可以擠進去的話。我知道你們按渠道提供了家庭服務計劃帳戶，這有助於打破它。我知道，很明顯，你給出了全年客戶增長的指導。也許如果你能提供一些細節，說明你如何考慮 2023 年的續訂和 DTC 渠道，你顯然在房地產方面給出了一些顏色，但這將有助於解析 3 個不同的渠道。

Yes. We're not ready yet to talk about 2023, but we obviously have a lot to share with you when we get together in March.

是的。我們還沒有準備好談論 2023 年，但我們在 3 月相聚時顯然有很多要與您分享。

Our next question is from the line of Aaron Kessler of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Aaron Kessler。

Maybe can you just talk about, Bill, your thoughts on the on-demand offering going forward? How are you thinking about that? Maybe 2, on the SG&A kind of reductions, kind of what areas specifically? And third, just on the ad environment. I think you said it still remains tough, although some of that data sounds like it's getting a little bit easier as well as, so any commentary there would be helpful.

比爾，也許你能談談你對未來按需服務的看法嗎？你怎麼想的？也許 2，關於 SG&A 的削減，具體是哪些領域？第三，就廣告環境而言。我想你說過它仍然很艱難，儘管其中一些數據聽起來好像變得更容易了一些，所以任何評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. Let me try to take them in order. Aaron, on demand, we do more than doubled ProConnect revenue this year versus last year. And as I said in the second quarter, there's something here, and we are a believer in the on-demand business. We are figuring out exactly how to go to market. We want it to be a bigger business. But Raj Midha and his team have done a really nice job of developing that area in terms of the service offering.

是的。讓我試著把它們整理好。亞倫，根據需要，我們今年的 ProConnect 收入比去年增加了一倍多。正如我在第二季度所說，這裡有一些東西，我們相信點播業務。我們正在弄清楚如何進入市場。我們希望它成為一個更大的企業。但 Raj Midha 和他的團隊在開發該領域的服務方面做得非常好。

And so we're pretty bullish on that. We'll have a lot more to say about it as we said in March, but just within 2022, we're pretty pleased with the efforts we're making, the connection with the contractors, et cetera. So that is going to be -- that is clearly in our future plans.

所以我們非常看好這一點。正如我們在 3 月份所說的那樣，我們還有很多話要說，但就在 2022 年之內，我們對我們所做的努力、與承包商的聯繫等感到非常滿意。所以這將是——這顯然在我們未來的計劃中。

When it comes to SG&A, I talked about the workforce reduction, which you never want to do those kind of things, but we felt that we had to take some steps to optimize our workforce. Other areas, we did reduced some marketing spend. We did reduced some other areas of SG&A. I try to lead the service operations alone so that we can continue to service our customers, especially through the high season in Q3.

當談到 SG&A 時，我談到了裁員，你永遠不想做那些事情，但我們覺得我們必須採取一些措施來優化我們的員工隊伍。在其他領域，我們確實減少了一些營銷支出。我們確實減少了 SG&A 的其他一些領域。我嘗試單獨領導服務運營，以便我們能夠繼續為客戶提供服務，尤其是在第三季度的旺季期間。

But it was a broad-based effort, and I was really proud of the executive team, we came together. We spent a lot of time on this. We obviously looked hard at the head count and we were very judicious in our decisions there. But we looked at all aspects of the cost structure and that's why I think you can see the -- some evidence of that, that we have -- from what we originally told you in 2022, we're down $45 million.

但這是一項基礎廣泛的努力，我真的為執行團隊感到自豪，我們走到了一起。我們在這上面花了很多時間。顯然，我們仔細研究了人數，我們在那裡的決定非常明智。但我們研究了成本結構的各個方面，這就是為什麼我認為你可以看到——我們有一些證據——從我們最初在 2022 年告訴你的，我們減少了 4500 萬美元。

And as far as ad spending goes, yes, very good point. It does look like, and you've seen the results from some of the major platforms that they're struggling a little bit, which I think is going to help us. We were -- the looking back is that I think it has been a difficult environment. It's still a pretty competitive environment. So I wouldn't say we've got a moderation in marketing cost, but I think it is trending in the right direction to your point. And hopefully, that's going to help us generate more leads.

就廣告支出而言，是的，非常好。它看起來確實像，你已經看到了一些主要平台的結果，他們正在苦苦掙扎，我認為這會對我們有所幫助。我們 - 回顧過去，我認為這是一個艱難的環境。這仍然是一個競爭激烈的環境。所以我不會說我們的營銷成本有所降低，但我認為它正朝著正確的方向發展。希望這將幫助我們產生更多的潛在客戶。

I don't know, Brian, if there's anything you want to add.

Brian，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

No. That's spot on.

不，這是正確的。

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Schmitt of William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的傑夫·施密特。

I believe you said the cost per claims were up around 22% unless I misheard that. Can we get a sense on how much labor was up versus parts and equipment? I mean it sounds like labor is up more, but what's sort of the breakout there?

我相信你說過每次索賠的成本增加了 22% 左右，除非我聽錯了。我們能否了解與零件和設備相比有多少勞動力？我的意思是聽起來勞動力價格上漲更多，但那裡的突破是什麼樣的？

Yes. It was similar to Q2. And if we look at our overall claims cost, it's about half contract related, which would be labor, fuel, their overhead and the other half that parts and equipment, and that was pretty consistent this quarter versus last quarter.

是的。它類似於第二季度。如果我們看一下我們的整體索賠成本，它大約有一半與合同相關，這將是勞動力、燃料、他們的間接費用，另一半是零件和設備，而且本季度與上一季度相比非常一致。

I think the specific number was 23%, right?

我想具體數字是23%吧？

Yes, 23%.

是的，23%。

Okay. And then just thinking about pricing increases 12% to 13% sort of on, but I understand that takes time to earn through, but it seems like that could come up light. So I guess, where do you feel your pricing is in the industry kind of relative to competitors? Is there anything that may be holding you back from going higher there? Will you need to go higher there do you think to really repair margins?

好的。然後只是考慮定價增加 12% 到 13% 之類的，但我知道這需要時間才能實現，但似乎這可能會浮出水面。所以我想，你覺得你的定價在行業中相對於競爭對手有什麼影響？有什麼可能阻礙你在那裡走得更高嗎？你認為你需要走得更高才能真正修復利潤率嗎？

Yes, that -- we're looking at that is what I would say is. And I don't mean dodge the question, I'm not at all. We are not going to do any price increases for this year. We're still formulating our pricing for next year. I'm not ready to chat about that yet.

是的，那——我們正在研究這就是我要說的。我並不是要迴避這個問題，我根本不是。我們今年不會漲價。我們仍在製定明年的定價。我還沒準備好談論那個。

We may be able to, but at this point, we're still modeling that out. And we have done some things in our marketing efforts because of the price increases to try to guide people more to the gold product than the platinum product, which is a little bit lower priced, and the coverages are a little different. But -- so we are trying to do some things within the marketing mix to try to drive positive units, but more to come on that, but it's certainly a lot of question within the company.

我們也許可以，但在這一點上，我們仍在對其進行建模。由於價格上漲，我們在營銷工作中做了一些事情，試圖引導人們更多地使用黃金產品而不是鉑金產品，鉑金產品的價格略低，而且覆蓋範圍也略有不同。但是——所以我們正試圖在營銷組合中做一些事情來推動積極的部門，但更多的是在這方面，但這在公司內部肯定有很多問題。

Our next question is from the line of Cory Carpenter from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Cory Carpenter。

Just wanted to see if you had any sense on what's driving the lower service request volume in the quarter. I think you said that came in below your expectations? And then just how you're thinking about that going forward? And then maybe for Bill, could you just talk more about your discounting strategy in the direct-to-consumer channel? I think you said you started that in September and you claim on doing some more in 4Q and how that fits in with the broader price increases you're making?

只是想看看您是否了解導致本季度服務請求量減少的原因。我想你說過這低於你的預期？那麼你是如何考慮未來的呢？然後也許對於 Bill，你能多談談你在直接面向消費者渠道中的折扣策略嗎？我想你說你在 9 月開始，你聲稱在第四季度做更多，這如何適應你正在做的更廣泛的價格上漲？

Sure. Thanks, Cory. Yes, I think Q3, there was a lot of benefit from HVAC. I think the weather cooperated for us. So that was a lot of the benefit in the quarter. But also, what we're seeing since the start of this pandemic, and the pandemic trades have been plumbing and appliances, those have begun to trend down continually since the peak. So those are getting more favorable, too. So the trends are going in the right direction. I would say appliance trends are still higher than they were pre-pandemic, but those should come down over time. So again, the Q3 was basically mostly HVAC favorability.

當然。謝謝，科里。是的，我認為第三季度，HVAC 帶來了很多好處。我認為天氣對我們很有幫助。所以這是本季度的很多好處。而且，自從這場大流行開始以來，我們所看到的是，大流行的交易一直是管道和電器，自高峰期以來，這些已經開始持續下降。所以那些也越來越有利。因此，趨勢正朝著正確的方向發展。我想說家電趨勢仍然高於大流行前，但隨著時間的推移應該會下降。同樣，Q3 基本上主要是暖通空調的好感度。

Yes. When it comes to pricing, Cory, the discounting. I think what we've looked at is as competitors have gotten more aggressive, and they're doing things like comparing our platinum highest-priced product to their middle-priced product and we find some gains like that, and that's fair -- that is what it is. We're trying to pulse in some promotions as part of an overall pricing strategy to drive units. Part of this is consumer-driven with all the talk of inflation in recession. We're still a discretionary purchase as a home warranty business. So it's -- we're just trying to fit that into as another lever in our marketing arsenal.

是的。說到定價，Cory 就是打折。我認為我們所看到的是，隨著競爭對手變得更加激進，他們正在做一些事情，比如將我們的鉑金最高價產品與他們的中等價位產品進行比較，我們發現了一些類似的收益，這是公平的——就是這樣。我們正試圖將一些促銷活動作為推動單位的整體定價策略的一部分。部分原因是消費者在經濟衰退中談論通貨膨脹。作為家庭保修業務，我們仍然是酌情購買。所以它 - 我們只是試圖將其作為我們營銷武器庫中的另一個槓桿。

It's -- we don't disclose when we're going to do it. We run it tight wide generally and with all of our marketing materials. So I think it's just part of the overall pricing strategy. And it's designed to have a pulse, drive some units. Most of that revenue benefit will come in next year, but we have to manage this thing as a multiyear, 12-month business. So it's just part of the overall marketing mix and ways for us to try to drive units.

它是 - 我們不會透露我們何時會這樣做。我們用我們所有的營銷材料廣泛地運行它。所以我認為這只是整體定價策略的一部分。它被設計成有一個脈衝，驅動一些單元。大部分收入收益將在明年出現，但我們必須將這件事作為一項為期 12 個月的多年業務來管理。所以這只是整體營銷組合的一部分，也是我們嘗試推動單位的方式。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Brian Fitzgerald。

Thanks for the incremental detail on the renewal rates by channel. Real estate seems stable and what you pointed out to versus what you pointed out historically, wondering if you could give us some context for how direct-to-consumer and renewal channels, how the renewal rates there are coming in and also anything on seasonality? That 72% blended rate is that normal given seasonality? And how should we view that in context of 75% you reported on a trailing 12 months, should we expect that TTM figure to round down?

感謝您按渠道提供有關續訂率的詳細信息。房地產似乎很穩定，你所指出的與你過去所指出的相比，想知道你是否可以為我們提供一些關於如何直接面向消費者和續訂渠道、續訂率如何進入以及季節性的任何信息的背景信息？考慮到季節性，72% 的混合率是正常的嗎？我們應該如何看待您在過去 12 個月中報告的 75%，我們是否應該期望 TTM 數字向下舍入？

So the renewal -- are you talking retention or renewal? You're talking renewal here? Let me do renewal. I still can't figure out the difference, but I talk to these guys about it every time.

那麼續約——你是在談論保留還是續約？你在這裡說更新？讓我做更新。我仍然無法弄清楚其中的區別，但我每次都和這些人談論它。

But when it comes to renewal rate, which is how many customers we have today versus what we had a year ago. Actually, overall, it's been trending slightly positive, which is -- these are numbers that are pretty stable. So when you can get a blip going in the right direction, it's a good thing.

但談到續訂率，這是我們今天擁有的客戶數量與一年前的數量之比。實際上，總的來說，它一直呈略微積極的趨勢，也就是說——這些數字非常穩定。因此，當您能夠朝著正確的方向前進時，這是一件好事。

So in terms of where it's at right now, I think we feel like we're in a good place. And as I think we said in the script, the renewal rate has even ticked up a little bit. So I think we're generally pleased with the stability we have there, especially during these strange times.

因此，就目前的情況而言，我認為我們感覺自己處在一個好地方。正如我認為我們在劇本中所說的那樣，續訂率甚至有所上升。所以我認為我們對那裡的穩定性總體上感到滿意，尤其是在這些奇怪的時期。

But as far as retention goes, Brian, do you want to comment on that?

但就保留率而言，Brian，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes. I know we probably confused you a little bit giving you both metrics, but they're different. And the renewal rate is really a ratio of customers you began a period with and end the period with.

是的。我知道我們給你兩個指標可能讓你有點困惑，但它們是不同的。續訂率實際上是您開始一個時期和結束一個時期的客戶的比率。

Retention is a little more complicated because it includes additional customers added during the period. So that's really the difference between the 2. And actually, our retention rate is running fairly well at 75% this year.

保留稍微複雜一些，因為它包括在此期間添加的額外客戶。這就是兩者之間的真正區別。實際上，我們今年的保留率相當不錯，達到 75%。

It incorporates cancels, too, right? Yes, I'm learning along the way, Brian.

它也包含取消，對嗎？是的，我一直在學習，布賴恩。

Yes, absolutely. And to Bill's point, our cancels are trending favorably. So that explains some of our benefit for retention rate at this point.

是的，一點沒錯。就比爾而言，我們的取消趨勢是有利的。因此，這解釋了我們目前對保留率的一些好處。

Got it. And our second question was on the preferred contractor network. Is it fair to assume that some of your contractors are seeing a slowdown in some of their other demand channels? And how is that playing out in terms of the rates you're able to pay and your ability to recruit into the preferred network?

知道了。我們的第二個問題是關於首選承包商網絡。假設您的一些承包商發現他們的其他一些需求渠道正在放緩，這是否公平？就您能夠支付的費率和您招募到首選網絡的能力而言，這如何發揮作用？

I don't think we're seeing -- we're not hear -- I'm not hearing that, Brian. I don't know if you -- that their demand is slowing. I think people are still looking for contractors overall. So we're not -- we're not seeing -- and I hear where you're going in terms of is there a benefit that would accrue to us if their demand is slowing. So I have not heard that. So I don't think that's a consideration right now.

我認為我們沒有看到——我們沒有聽到——我沒有聽到，布賴恩。我不知道你是否 - 他們的需求正在放緩。我認為人們仍在整體上尋找承包商。所以我們沒有——我們沒有看到——我聽說你要去哪裡，如果他們的需求放緩，我們會從中受益。所以我沒有聽說過。所以我認為現在不考慮這個問題。

And the next question is from the line of Justin Patterson of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Justin Patterson。

Two, if I can. I'll look positive comments on renewal rate. Could you talk about how measures of customer satisfaction are trending? I know there were some frustrations with contractor availability earlier in the year, trying to get request resolved. So I'm curious if the combination of lower reflect this quarter, plus some operational improvements are driving faster turnaround times and better customer satisfaction? And I'll stop there and then follow up after that response. .

兩個，如果可以的話。我會對續訂率給予正面評價。您能談談客戶滿意度指標的趨勢嗎？我知道今年早些時候對承包商的可用性感到有些沮喪，試圖解決請求。所以我很好奇本季度較低的組合是否反映了一些運營改進正在推動更快的周轉時間和更高的客戶滿意度？我會停在那裡，然後在收到回復後跟進。 .

I think we're -- right now, things are similar to where the rates are is they are stable at this point. I think we've had a good year for the service operations team. I think that we've come through the high season. There's always one-off situations that we haven't gotten to particularly some of the acute situations wherein HVAC goes out in very hot climates.

我認為我們 - 現在，情況與利率相似，因為它們在這一點上是穩定的。我認為我們的服務運營團隊度過了美好的一年。我認為我們已經度過了旺季。總是有一些一次性的情況，我們還沒有得到解決，特別是 HVAC 在非常炎熱的氣候下出現的一些嚴重情況。

But generally, I think our customer satisfaction is held, it's stable. I think we got better this year with a lot of our internal metrics on customer service. So right now, I think we're in a good zone always looking to improve, but right now, it's stable along with the other measures.

但總的來說，我認為我們的客戶滿意度是穩定的。我認為我們今年通過許多關於客戶服務的內部指標變得更好。所以現在，我認為我們處於一個很好的區域，一直在尋求改進，但現在，它與其他指標一起穩定。

Got it. And then for the follow-up, I was interested in your comments about sellers having to use Home Service Plans more to move inventory in this type of environment. You're starting to see higher attach rates of Home Service Plans. Any quantification of just what that delta looks like, the incremental uptick? When you step back and you look at the decades of data that Frontdoor has, how should we think about the potential uplift from both the shift to more of a buyer's market in play and then also just the extra partnership that you have with real estate channel to augment that?

知道了。然後對於後續行動，我對您關於賣家必須更多地使用家庭服務計劃來在這種環境中轉移庫存的評論很感興趣。您開始看到家庭服務計劃的附加率更高。對這個增量的任何量化，增量上升？當你退後一步，看看 Frontdoor 擁有的數十年數據時，我們應該如何考慮從轉向更多買方市場的潛在提升，以及你與房地產渠道的額外合作關係增加那個？

Yes. Thanks, Justin. I don't think we're in a position yet to quantify. And frankly, I think, Jes Fields, our Chief of Sales is very close, very well known in the industry, and is very close to some of our major partners. I think they're trying to figure it out, too, because the shift has been so quick, so severe in terms of some of the numbers we saw from the NAR and then what we anticipate seeing in October. So I don't think we're to a point where we can look at. I'd love to be talking about uplift in real estate. That's for sure. And Jes is working hard and her team on that.

是的。謝謝，賈斯汀。我認為我們還不能量化。坦率地說，我認為，我們的銷售主管 Jes Fields 非常親近，在業內非常有名，並且與我們的一些主要合作夥伴非常親近。我認為他們也在努力解決這個問題，因為就我們從 NAR 看到的一些數字以及我們預計在 10 月份看到的數據而言，這種轉變是如此之快、如此嚴重。所以我認為我們還沒有達到可以查看的地步。我很想談論房地產的提升。這是肯定的。 Jes 和她的團隊正在為此努力。

But I think that this is almost in real time that a lot of the brokers and agents are realizing they're going to have to improve their listings, they improve the appeal of the listings for 1.5 years or so they could roll them all in the court and just say go play.

但我認為這幾乎是實時的，很多經紀人和代理人都意識到他們將不得不改善他們的上市，他們提高上市的吸引力 1.5 年左右，他們可以在法庭，只是說去玩。

Now it's back to a competitive market, it's where buyers have more choice. So we're still working through that because it has been so abrupt even in the time since I took over here, the real estate shift has been pretty abrupt. So it's in motion right now, and I think it's a fair question to ask, but I don't think we're in a position to have any quantification.

現在又回到了競爭激烈的市場，買家有了更多的選擇。所以我們仍在努力解決這個問題，因為即使在我接手這裡的那段時間裡，它也非常突然，房地產的轉變非常突然。所以它現在正在進行中，我認為這是一個公平的問題，但我認為我們無法進行任何量化。

And our next question is from the line of Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe just one. If we could go back to sort of the revamped marketing strategy. Can you give us a little bit more color on what that might mean in terms of channels where you're getting optimistic in terms of engaging in with marketing dollars to possibly drive better outcomes as we move out of '22 into '23? Will that have an impact in terms of the type of channel mix or distribution you get for the product over the long term? And how should we be thinking about marketing ROI in general based on what you've learned ahead of revamping the marketing strategy?

也許只有一個。如果我們可以回到某種改進後的營銷策略。當我們從 22 年進入 23 年時，您能否更詳細地說明這在渠道方面可能意味著什麼，在這些渠道中，您對參與營銷資金可能會帶來更好的結果持樂觀態度？從長遠來看，這會對您為產品獲得的渠道組合或分銷類型產生影響嗎？我們應該如何根據您在改進營銷策略之前學到的知識來考慮一般的營銷投資回報率？

Yes. I'm going to give you hopefully a comprehensive answer here because we're trying to operate on a few different levels. One of the things we're trying to do is there's a temptation to spend all your marketing efforts on new clients and new customers associated in the DTC area.

是的。我希望在這裡給你一個全面的答案，因為我們正試圖在幾個不同的層面上運作。我們正在嘗試做的一件事是，有一種誘惑將你所有的營銷努力都花在新客戶和 DTC 領域相關的新客戶身上。

Our marketing team spending a lot of time on renewals and conversion. There -- I may have spoken about this in the last call. But we're in the midst of trying to intercept if you will, or identify potential nonrenewals earlier. Surprisingly and almost counterintuitively, people who don't have a claim are at risk of nonrenewal because there's a little bit of why do I need this service.

我們的營銷團隊在續訂和轉化上花費了大量時間。在那裡 - 我可能在上次電話會議中談到了這一點。但是，如果您願意，我們正在嘗試攔截，或者更早地識別潛在的不更新。令人驚訝且幾乎違反直覺的是，沒有索賠的人有不續約的風險，因為我需要這項服務的原因有一點。

So in a peculiar way, we actually want you to call us because it does drive a longer-term relationship. But there are other things that we can -- that are indicators to us that enable us to get more specific and more targeted by -- if there's a high degree of complaints, if there are long service times. And we're trying to get smarter about that as they're in the middle of their contract to try to drive conversion.

因此，以一種特殊的方式，我們實際上希望您給我們打電話，因為它確實推動了更長期的關係。但是，如果有大量投訴，如果服務時間較長，我們還可以做其他事情——這些指標讓我們能夠更具體、更有針對性。我們正試圖在這方面變得更聰明，因為他們正處於合同的中間，試圖推動轉化。

The other piece is we have a big effort in real estate. You can see the difference in renewal rates by channel. And we have made strides in real estate over the last year or so. That 29% number is actually up a few points. I know we haven't talked about this before, but this is really an important area for us because we have captive clients, people who are in our business. So the marketing team is working a lot on conversion and renewals.

另一部分是我們在房地產方面付出了巨大的努力。您可以按渠道查看續訂率的差異。在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們在房地產領域取得了長足進步。這個 29% 的數字實際上上升了幾個百分點。我知道我們以前沒有談過這個，但這對我們來說確實是一個重要的領域，因為我們有專屬客戶，也就是從事我們業務的人。因此，營銷團隊在轉化和續約方面做了大量工作。

Now when it comes to DTC, we are testing some new creative and promotions. And we're looking at some work with -- rather than go to an affiliate network, we're working directly with some really good affiliates partners so that we're not -- we're going directly to them, and we are showing some promise with that.

現在談到 DTC，我們正在測試一些新的創意和促銷活動。我們正在尋找一些合作——而不是去附屬網絡，我們直接與一些非常好的附屬合作夥伴合作，這樣我們就不會——我們直接去找他們，我們正在展示一些承諾。

We are also, as I talked about, using our new pricing and discounting strategies to try to drive our units there. We're defaulting the lead product to gold so that we try to drive people with -- they're all great products but at a lower priced product. And what we're trying to do is even in our funnel as people come into the -- to come into the funnel, we have made some changes. I think we are trying to get too much information early in the funnel. We want to get people a quote earlier in the process to reduce that friction in the funnel. So that's something on the website that we're working on, trying to make that so that people can get quicker into the product, know the price, et cetera.

正如我所說，我們也在使用我們新的定價和折扣策略來推動我們的部門在那裡。我們將主要產品默認為黃金，以便我們嘗試用 - 它們都是很棒的產品但價格較低的產品來吸引人們。我們正在嘗試做的是，當人們進入我們的漏斗時——進入漏斗，我們已經做了一些改變。我認為我們試圖在漏斗的早期獲得太多信息。我們希望在此過程中儘早為人們提供報價，以減少漏斗中的摩擦。所以這就是我們正在努力在網站上做的事情，試圖做到這一點，以便人們可以更快地了解產品，了解價格等等。

And then finally, from a sales perspective, we've been optimizing some call scripts and the like to try to get a better -- when we get a lead to see if we can convert better. So those are all steps that we're taking. It's pretty comprehensive. It's not just a matter of just let's go spend more money with search engine marketing. We are doing that. We talked about the rates earlier. But we're trying to do some things that are much more targeted, much more specific on the overall marketing mix.

最後，從銷售的角度來看，我們一直在優化一些呼叫腳本等，以嘗試獲得更好的效果——當我們獲得潛在客戶時，看看我們是否可以更好地轉換。所以這些都是我們正在採取的步驟。它非常全面。這不僅僅是讓我們花更多的錢在搜索引擎營銷上的問題。我們正在這樣做。我們之前談過利率。但我們正在嘗試做一些更有針對性、更具體的整體營銷組合的事情。

And we have no further questions. So this concludes the Q&A session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you again for joining Frontdoor's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Today's call has now concluded.

我們沒有其他問題了。問答環節到此結束。女士們，先生們，再次感謝您參加 Frontdoor 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天的電話會議現已結束。