Frontline Plc (FRO) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Frontline Limited Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Lars Barstad. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加 Frontline Limited 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）我必須通知您，今天的會議正在錄製。現在我想將會議交給今天的演講者拉爾斯·巴斯塔德先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you very much. Good morning, and good afternoon. Welcome to this Frontline's fourth quarter and full year earnings call. It's been a very volatile year, and black swans have become a common feature in our market landscape. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected our business on many levels, but most importantly, our sea fares have been safe and our organization has been spared serious human consequences.

非常感謝。早安，下午好。歡迎參加 Frontline 第四季和全年財報電話會議。這是非常動盪的一年，黑天鵝已成為我們市場格局的常見特徵。COVID-19 大流行在多個層面上影響了我們的業務，但最重要的是，我們的海運票價是安全的，我們的組織也沒有遭受嚴重的傷亡。

Tanker markets have been challenging, but the year as a whole, has been solid business-wise. And we recorded our best full year result in 2020 since 2008. Let's move to Slide 3 and have a look at the highlights. Frontline came into the fourth quarter of 2020 on a soft note, expecting some degree of normal seasonality to kick in as the Northern Hemisphere usually stock up for winter.

油輪市場一直充滿挑戰，但全年業務表現穩健。2020 年我們創下了自 2008 年以來最好的全年業績。讓我們轉到幻燈片 3，看看其中的亮點。Frontline 在進入 2020 年第四季時表現疲軟，預計由於北半球通常會為冬季備貨，因此會出現一定程度的正常季節性。

But this time around, the fourth quarter proved to be softer than Q3, actually for the first time in 10 years. On a low to discharge basis, we made $17,200 per day on our VLCCs, $9,800 per day on our Suezmaxes and $12,500 per day on our LR2s. So far in the quarter -- in the fourth -- so far in the third quarter, we have booked 78% of our available VLCC days at $22,600, 68% of our available Suezmax days at $17,800 and 65% of our LR2/Aframax days at $12,200 per day. I think it's safe to say our markets in Q4 were challenging, but I will come to that later in this presentation. I'll now let Inger take you through Frontline's financial highlights.

但這一次，第四季的表現比第三季疲軟，這實際上是 10 年來的第一次。在低排放基礎上，我們的 VLCC 每天賺取 17,200 美元，Suezmax 每天賺取 9,800 美元，LR2 每天賺取 12,500 美元。到目前為止，在第四季度和第三季度，我們已經以22,600 美元的價格預訂了78% 的可用VLCC 日數，以17,800 美元的價格預訂了68% 的可用蘇伊士型船日數，以及65% 的LR2 /Aframax 日數每天 12,200 美元。我認為可以肯定地說我們第四季度的市場充滿挑戰，但我將在本次演講的稍後部分討論這一點。現在我將讓 Inger 帶領您了解 Frontline 的財務亮點。

Thanks, Lars, and good morning, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's then turn to Slide 4 and look at the income statement. We achieved total operating revenues, net of voyage expenses of $101 million in the fourth quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $31 million. We report a net loss of $9.2 million, $0.05 per share, and adjusted net loss of $20 million or $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter. We had some adjustments in the fourth quarter, which were the gain on the sale of SeaTeam of $6.9 million, also a $2.5 million gain on derivatives, a $1.9 million unrealized gain on marketable securities, $1.3 million amortization of acquired time charters and a 1.6 million share of losses of associated companies.

謝謝，拉斯，早安，下午好，女士們先生們。然後我們翻到投影片 4，看看損益表。第四季扣除航次費用後的總營業收入為 1.01 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3,100 萬美元。我們報告第四季淨虧損為 920 萬美元，即每股 0.05 美元，調整後淨虧損為 2,000 萬美元，即每股 0.10 美元。我們在第四季進行了一些調整，包括出售SeaTeam 的收益為690 萬美元，衍生性商品收益為250 萬美元，有價證券的未實現收益為190 萬美元，所購定期租船攤銷額為130萬美元，以及160 萬美元的攤銷收益。

The adjusted net income in the fourth quarter decreased from third quarter by $76 million, and that was primarily driven by a $75 million decrease in our time charter given earnings due to the lowest reported TCE rates in the fourth quarter, which Lars went through. Frontline reported a full year 2020 net income of $413 million or $2.09 per share and adjusted net income of $422 million or $2.13 per share.

第四季調整後的淨利潤比第三季減少了7,600 萬美元，這主要是由於Lars 經歷的第四季度報告的TCE 費率最低而導致收益減少了7,500 萬美元，導致我們的期租減少了7500 萬美元。Frontline 公佈 2020 年全年淨利潤為 4.13 億美元，即每股 2.09 美元，調整後淨利潤為 4.22 億美元，即每股 2.13 美元。

And this is the strongest yearly result since 2008. Then let's take a look at the balance sheet on Slide 5. At the end of December 31, 2020, Frontline has $413 million in cash and cash equivalents, including the undrawn amount under our senior unsecured loan facility, the marketable securities and minimum cash requirements. In November 2020, we entered into 2 term loan facilities in a total amount of $351.5 million to refinance 2 existing term loan facilities, which matured in the second quarter of 2021, which had total balloon payments of $324.4 million. And we also entered into a loan facility in an amount of $133.7 million to partially finance the CapEx requirements as of the end of 2020 of $142.4 million for the 4 LR2 tankers that we have under construction.

這是自 2008 年以來最強勁的年度業績。然後讓我們來看看幻燈片5 上的資產負債表。和最低現金要求。2020 年11 月，我們簽訂了兩項總金額為3.515 億美元的定期貸款融資，為兩項現有定期貸款融資進行再融資，這些貸款融資已於2021 年第二季到期，一次性付款總額為3.244 億美元。我們還簽訂了一項金額為 1.337 億美元的貸款安排，以部分滿足截至 2020 年底我們正在建造的 4 艘 LR2 油輪 1.424 億美元的資本支出要求。

Further, in February 2021, we extended the terms of our senior unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $275 million by 12 months to May 2022. $60 million of this extended facility has been recorded as long-term debt as of December 31, 2020. $215 million remains available and undrawn under this facility.

此外，2021 年 2 月，我們將高達 2.75 億美元的優先無擔保循環信貸額度的期限延長了 12 個月，至 2022 年 5 月。截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日，該延期貸款中的 6,000 萬美元已記錄為長期債務。該貸款下仍有 2.15 億美元可用且未提取。

And following the concluded refinancing and financing, we have no material debt maturities until 2023. And the newbuilding program is fully funded. Then let's take a closer look at the cash breakeven rates and OpEx on Slide 6. We estimate average cash cost breakeven rate for 2021 of approximately $21,600 per day for the VLCCs, $17,800 per day for the Suezmax tankers and $15,600 per day for the LR2 tankers. And the fleet average estimate is about $18,200 per day.

在完成再融資和融資後，我們在 2023 年之前沒有重大債務到期。新造船計畫資金充足。然後，讓我們仔細看看幻燈片6 上的現金損益平衡率和營運支出。美元。機隊平均估計約為每天 18,200 美元。

These rates are the all-in daily rates that our vessels must earn to cover the budgeted operating costs and dry dock, the estimated interest expenses, TC and bareboat hire, installments on loans and G&A expenses. We recorded OpEx expenses in the fourth quarter of 2020 of $7,800 per day for VLCCs, $9,700 per day for the Suezmax and $8,300 per day for the LR2 tankers. The OpEx expenses were impacted by dry docking of 4 Suezmax tankers and 1 LR2 tanker in the fourth quarter. We will dry dock 1 Suezmax tanker in the first quarter of 2021.

這些費率是我們的船舶必須賺取的每日總費率，用於支付預算營運成本和乾船塢、估計利息費用、TC 和光船租金、貸款分期付款以及一般行政費用。我們記錄的 2020 年第四季 VLCC 的營運支出為每天 7,800 美元，Suezmax 型油輪每天為 9,700 美元，LR2 油輪每天為 8,300 美元。營運支出受到第四季度 4 艘 Suezmax 油輪和 1 艘 LR2 油輪進乾塢的影響。我們將在 2021 年第一季將 1 艘 Suezmax 油輪進乾船塢。

In the graph, on the right-hand side of the slide, we have shown incremental cash flow after debt service per year -- per share, assuming $10,000, $20,000, $30,000 or $40,000 per day in achieved rates in excess of our cash breakeven base, respectively. And then -- sorry, the numbers include vessels on time charter out. They are adjusted for newbuilding deliveries and we are looking at a period of 365 days from January 1, 2021.

在投影片右側的圖表中，我們顯示了每年償債後的增量現金流（每股），假設每天實現的利率超過我們的現金損益平衡基礎 10,000 美元、20,000 美元、30,000 美元或 40,000 美元，分別。然後 - 抱歉，這些數字包括定期租船的船隻。它們根據新船交付情況進行了調整，我們預計的期限為 2021 年 1 月 1 日起的 365 天。

As an example, with a fleet average cash cost breakeven rate of $18,200 per day, and assuming $30,000 on top of the average fleet TCE rate would be $48,200 per day. And Frontline would generate a cash flow per share after debt service of $3.46.

例如，車隊平均現金成本損益平衡率為每天 18,200 美元，假設平均車隊 TCE 率為每天 48,200 美元，再加上 30,000 美元。Frontline 償債後每股現金流為 3.46 美元。

With this, I'll leave the word to Lars again.

說到這裡，我將再次向拉斯轉告。

Let's move on to Slide 7 and recap the fourth quarter tanker markets. So during Q4, oil inventories drew at a record pace to the tune of 2.6 million barrels per day according to EIA. As oil demand continued to rise to levels near 10 million barrels above the Q2 levels, oil prices continued to strengthen further and the structure of the oil market incentivized players to empty tanks, both floating and on land.

讓我們繼續看投影片 7，回顧一下第四季的油輪市場。因此，根據 EIA 的數據，第四季石油庫存以創紀錄的速度減少，達到每天 260 萬桶。隨著石油需求繼續上升至比第二季度高出近 1000 萬桶的水平，油價繼續進一步走強，石油市場的結構激勵參與者清空油箱，無論是浮動油箱還是陸上油箱。

And the future price was increasingly lower than the prompt price, making it ineconomical to hold stock. A significant number of tankers were employed in storage in the second half of last year, particularly outside China. And this inventory draw cycle added pressure to an already oversupplied market as these vessels now returned to compete in the spot business.

而且未來價格越來越低於即時價格，使得持有庫存變得不經濟。去年下半年，大量油輪被用於儲存，特別是在中國境外。由於這些船舶現在重新參與現貨業務的競爭，這種庫存消耗週期給本已供過於求的市場增加了壓力。

Asia and in particular, China has been the key driver in the recovery so far. This supported the VLCC market for a while as they sourced their returning oil demand from the Atlantic basin. In the latter part of last year, we saw China also withdraw on inventories, muting their demand for tankers. By December 2020, Chinese oil consumption reached all-time high at 15.6 million barrels according to the EIA.

迄今為止，亞洲，尤其是中國，一直是經濟復甦的主要動力。這在一段時間內支撐了 VLCC 市場，因為它們從大西洋盆地獲取返回的石油需求。去年下半年，我們看到中國也減少了庫存，削弱了對油輪的需求。根據 EIA 的數據，截至 2020 年 12 月，中國石油消費量達到 1,560 萬桶，創下歷史新高。

Let's move to Slide 8 and look at the crude fleet and order books. The argument that ships older than 20 years struggle to trade in the conventional oil market is undisputed. Oil majors, traders and national oil companies all practice a hard stop at 20 years. This means that we have a very limited amount of options once the vessel has gone through the 20-year classing. And with freight rates at 0 to negative for non-eco tonnage, we struggle to see the prospects for this portion of the fleet for alternative use. The conversion markets for FFOs and SSOs is not very hot at the moment, and there is a limited demand for storage as all the curves are in steep backwardation. We also believe the upcoming regulatory changes with regards to GHG emissions will challenge the fleet going forward. This indicates a limited lifespan even for vessels of 17.5 years of age.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 8，看看原始船隊和訂單簿。船齡超過 20 年的船舶難以在常規石油市場上進行貿易的論點是無可爭議的。石油巨頭、貿易商和國家石油公司都實施20年硬停。這意味著一旦船舶完成 20 年入級，我們的選擇就非常有限。由於非生態噸位的運費為 0 至負值，我們很難看到這部分船隊的替代用途的前景。目前FFO和SSO的轉換市場並不是很熱，並且由於所有曲線都處於陡峭的現貨溢價，因此對儲存的需求有限。我們也相信即將到來的有關溫室氣體排放的監管變化將為船隊的未來帶來挑戰。這表明即使船齡為 17.5 年的船舶，其使用壽命也是有限的。

Ordering activity is muted and does not match the age profile of the fleet. We did see some orders towards the end of last year. And that lifted the order book slightly. 30% of the overall tanker fleet is about 15 years. And after regulations on energy efficiency or the famous now EEXI kicks in, in 2023, the potential for carbon tax regime and the potential work for carbon tax regime kicks off. This whole portion of the fleet will either need to invest heavily or retire.

訂購活動平淡且與機隊的年齡概況不符。去年年底我們確實看到了一些訂單。這略微提升了訂單量。整個油輪船隊的30%的船齡約為15年。在能源效率法規或現在著名的 EEXI 啟動後，到 2023 年，碳稅制度的潛力和碳稅制度的潛在工作就會啟動。這整個機隊要嘛需要大量投資，要嘛退休。

Let's move to Slide 9. We want to talk about our clean product tankers. We normally don't mention our clean trading capabilities in these presentations, but we do have 18 modern LR2s and 4 more to come, which makes us a significant owner in this space. The reduction in jet fuel demand as travel got restricted in 2020 hit refinery margins severely. Refinery margins in Europe and U.S. have been under pressure for years. And due to big prospects, little investments have been done in improving and modernizing these plants. Last year's depressed margins accelerated the decisions to permanently close or convert refineries to storage plants or in some few examples buy a few plants.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9。我們通常不會在這些演示中提及我們的清潔交易能力，但我們確實擁有 18 台現代 LR2 以及即將推出的 4 台，這使我們成為該領域的重要所有者。2020 年，由於旅行受到限制，航空燃油需求減少，嚴重影響了煉油廠的利潤率。歐洲和美國的煉油廠利潤多年來一直面臨壓力。由於前景廣闊，在這些工廠的改進和現代化方面幾乎沒有進行任何投資。去年低迷的利潤加速了永久關閉煉油廠或將煉油廠轉變為儲存廠的決定，或在某些例子中購買了一些工廠。

Asia, in general, and in particular, Middle East and China, however, the last 3 years, expanded refining capacity significantly. Modern refineries can process a wider range of crudes more efficiently, and I can give you an entire presentation on the topic. The key is that they outcompete local refineries in especially Europe, but also to some degree in U.S. We can see on the slide here that the refining capacity that has permanently closed in Europe is to the tune of 500,000 barrels per day; in the U.S., close to 700,000 barrels per day. There has been some closures in Asia of 705,000 barrels per day, but the new addition are 1.4 million barrels per day. In net, we see that -- or we expect trade flows to be affected by this.

然而，整個亞洲，特別是中東和中國，在過去三年煉油能力顯著擴大。現代煉油廠可以更有效地處理更廣泛的原油，我可以為您提供有關該主題的完整演示。關鍵是他們在競爭中勝過了當地煉油廠，尤其是在歐洲，但在某種程度上也在美國。 ；在美國，每天接近 70 萬桶。亞洲的產量已關閉705,000桶/日，但新增產量為140萬桶/日。從淨值來看，我們看到了這一點——或者我們預計貿易流量將受到此影響。

As product demand normalizes post-COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and U.S., we have to assume we return to some level of normality over the coming years. Jet fuel and other products are far more likely to be sourced by Asia, and this will incur longer ton-miles.

隨著歐洲和美國在 COVID-19 大流行後的產品需求正常化，我們必須假設我們在未來幾年將恢復到某種程度的正常狀態。航空燃油和其他產品更有可能從亞洲採購，這將導致更長的噸英里數。

Our LR2s offer great economies of scale for the expected developments in the product trade flows.

我們的 LR2 為產品貿易流的預期發展提供了龐大的規模經濟。

Let's move on to Slide 10 and discuss the market outlook as we see. I'm focusing on the short-term drivers in this presentation as that's probably the interesting part considering where the markets are. Saudi Arabia has signaled the reversal of their voluntary 1 million barrel per day cut to come in April '21. That comes in addition to whatever there is. Unusual cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere distorts usual demand patterns. Gas, LNG in Asia turn on capabilities to -- sorry, the gas and LNG spike in Asia and the unknown capabilities to oil for heating dynamics work as we haven't really seen oil for heating in 10 years, creates a lot of uncertainty around how much oil has been -- incremental oil has been consumed during this period. The spike in LNG prices implied oil prices at $260 per day, making great incentives to burn oil for heating.

讓我們繼續看投影片 10，討論我們所看到的市場前景。我在本次演示中重點關注短期驅動因素，因為考慮到市場狀況，這可能是有趣的部分。沙烏地阿拉伯已表示將撤銷 21 年 4 月自願減產 100 萬桶/日的決定。這是除了現有的一切之外的。北半球異常寒冷的天氣扭曲了通常的需求模式。亞洲的天然氣、液化天然氣開啟了能力——抱歉，亞洲的天然氣和液化天然氣激增，以及石油用於供暖動態的未知能力，因為我們已經有10 年沒有真正看到石油用於供暖了，這造成了許多不確定性在這段期間消耗了多少石油。液化天然氣價格的飆升意味著油價達到每天 260 美元，這極大地刺激了人們燃燒石油取暖。

We have episodes of -- or sole situation where skiing suddenly became popular in Madrid and most recently in Texas, we've seen how the cold weather has affected production. Goldman Sachs estimates that this production loss to be close to 700,000 barrels per day for February. Oil demand continues to recover despite extended lockdowns. Oil prices indicate tightening markets. The floating storage is no longer a significant factor weighing on the tanker market as we see it. And in April alone, oil supply is expected to increase by 3 million barrels according to EIA.

我們有過這樣的情況——或者說唯一的情況是滑雪突然在馬德里和最近在德克薩斯州流行起來，我們已經看到寒冷的天氣如何影響生產。高盛估計 2 月的產量損失將接近 70 萬桶/日。儘管封鎖時間延長，但石油需求仍持續復甦。油價表示市場趨緊。如我們所見，浮式儲存不再是影響油輪市場的重要因素。根據EIA的數據，光是4月石油供應預計將增加300萬桶。

So let's move to Slide 11 and sum all these things up. So the global tanker markets have corrected sharply during second half '20 after significant retraction in world growth. All the leading commodity markets are pricing a strong recovery in 2021. And the global GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% during this year. Oil demand is recovering and to what pace is a little bit unknown. We all know that the rate analyst agencies are slow to react, both on the downside when demand disappears, but also to the upside when demand is recovering. But global oil production is expected to increase by 5.3 million barrels during 2021.

讓我們轉到投影片 11，總結所有這些內容。因此，在世界經濟成長大幅回落之後，全球油輪市場在 1920 年代下半年出現了大幅調整。所有主要大宗商品市場都預計 2021 年將強勁復甦。今年全球GDP預估成長5.5%。石油需求正在復甦，但復甦的速度尚不清楚。我們都知道，利率分析機構反應緩慢，無論是在需求消失時下行，或是在需求復甦時上行。但2021年全球石油產量預計將增加530萬桶。

When this recovery starts for tankers is unknown, but we are very low in the cycle as the chart on the bottom right side indicates. OPEC+ is expected to ease cuts from Q2 '21 onwards. And with all the above, we believe Frontline is very well positioned for a recovery in tanker markets with our modern, spot exposed fleet.

油輪何時開始復甦尚不清楚，但正如右下角的圖表所示，我們處於週期的低點。OPEC+ 預計將從 21 年第二季開始放鬆減產。綜上所述，我們相信 Frontline 憑藉我們現代化的現貨船隊，在油輪市場復甦方面處於有利地位。

With that, I would like to open up for questions from the audience.

在此，我願意接受觀眾的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore.

我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Jon Chappell。

Lars, as I was reading your press release and your presentation, it struck me that Frontline has a history of being nimble and acquisitive when others kind of can't. And now that you've been very prudent with your dividend. Inger has done a great job of pushing out the maturities. It seems like you're in a position of financial strength at a time when the market is really still kind of struggling. So how do you think about these next 6 months and Frontline's willingness and ability to acquire ships before there's -- the optimistic upturn starts maybe later in the year or early next year? Or do you sit back and wait to see the whites of the eyes on a recovery before you get more aggressive?

Lars，當我閱讀您的新聞稿和簡報時，我突然意識到，Frontline 歷來在其他公司無法做到的情況下表現得靈活且貪婪。現在您對股息非常謹慎。英格在推遲到期方面做得非常出色。在市場確實仍然陷入困境的時候，您似乎處於財務實力雄厚的地位。那麼，您如何看待未來 6 個月以及 Frontline 在此之前購買船舶的意願和能力——樂觀的好轉可能會在今年晚些時候或明年初開始？還是你會袖手旁觀，等待眼白恢復，然後變得更激進？

Well, it's a good question, and it's an expected one. I think I would like to put emphasis on our capabilities, and they are as you mentioned there. Whether if we sit back or whether if we're looking at something right now or whether if we will do something in Q2 or later, I'm not going to comment on, to be quite honest.

嗯，這是一個好問題，也是一個預期的問題。我想我想強調我們的能力，正如您所提到的。老實說，無論我們是否袖手旁觀，或者我們現在是否正在考慮某些事情，或者我們是否會在第二季度或以後做一些事情，我都不會發表評論。

But the solid answer, I believe, is we're always looking. And our financial show, we're also ready to move when we see the opportunity.

但我相信，可靠的答案是我們一直在尋找。還有我們的財務展示，當我們看到機會時，我們也準備好採取行動。

Okay. And then second question, more of an industry one, the one I've also been thinking about. I think scrapping is kind of important on the margin. It's not the most important part of recovery in this market. That's going to be demand-driven.

好的。第二個問題，更多的是產業問題，也是我一直在思考的問題。我認為報廢在邊際上是很重要的。這不是這個市場復甦的最重要部分。這將是需求驅動的。

But it seems like a lot of companies have been talking about the new emission standards and the terrible market environment and older ships being discriminated against and why that's going to drive scrapping and you had a whole slide on that yourselves. It just seems like there hasn't been much in the form of scrapping in the last 12 months where rates are pretty much as bad as they could be, at least the last 6 to 9 months.

但似乎很多公司一直在談論新的排放標準、糟糕的市場環境和舊船受到的歧視，以及為什麼這會導致報廢，你們自己也對此進行了全面的了解。在過去 12 個月裡，似乎沒有太多報廢的情況，而利率幾乎是最糟糕的，至少在過去 6 到 9 個月是這樣。

And now there's this kind of consensus optimism that OPEC starts producing again and the world is recovering and everything is going to get better. So why would we see scrapping accelerate when the view is that things can only get better from here where there really wasn't much to be done at the absolute trough?

現在人們普遍樂觀地認為，歐佩克再次開始生產，世界正在復甦，一切都會變得更好。那麼，為什麼我們會看到報廢加速，因為我們認為事情只會從現在開始變得更好，而在絕對低谷時確實沒有什麼可做的呢？

Well, I must admit. And I think I mentioned or at least indicated in my presentation that the lack of scrapping in this market is a bit of a mystery to me. I think I pointed out that for all economical reasons, and we should be scrapping a lot during this month or the last month. And we haven't seen that yet. I think scrapping will accelerate throughout the year. With regards to the challenging kind of -- or the somewhat hazy outlook with regards to regulatory changes and so forth, I think it's going to be a very important factor to our market going forward. But I wouldn't be -- I won't join like the doomsday predictors say, that every vessel that's above 10 years needs to scrap and all that stuff. And there's a lot to be done for the tankers to actually improve the GSG emissions with the existing kits. And -- but for sure, it will affect our market going forward. But I think one has to be a little bit kind of critical of all the various kind of analysts predictions on the outlook for the tanker fleet.

嗯，我必須承認。我想我在演講中提到或至少表明，這個市場缺乏報廢對我來說有點神秘。我想我已經指出，出於所有經濟原因，我們應該在本月或上個月進行大量報廢。我們還沒有看到這一點。我認為全年報廢將會加速。對於具有挑戰性的——或者監管變化等方面有些模糊的前景，我認為這將是我們市場未來發展的一個非常重要的因素。但我不會——我不會像世界末日預言者所說的那樣，每艘超過 10 年的船隻都需要報廢等等。要利用現有套件真正改善油輪的 GSG 排放，還有很多工作要做。而且——但可以肯定的是，這將影響我們市場的未來。但我認為，人們必須對各種分析師對油輪船隊前景的預測持批評態度。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Tsung from Webber Research.

我們的下一個問題來自韋伯研究中心的 Chris Tsung。

So I guess I just want to start up, kind of following up on what Jon was talking about regarding your strong balance sheet and you guys pushed debt (inaudible) and instead of asking about acquisitions in the span of the fleet, what about -- is there any appetite to kind of increase your operational revenues by actually terming in charters at what could be the trough of this market and if so, what sort of durations are you looking at?

所以我想我只是想開始，跟進喬恩所說的關於你們強大的資產負債表的內容，你們推動了債務（聽不清），而不是詢問整個機隊的收購，而是——你們是否有興趣透過在租船合約中實際提及該市場的低谷時期來增加您的營運收入？

So sorry, we can't really hear you too well. I'm sorry for that.

很抱歉，我們聽不清楚您的聲音。我對此感到抱歉。

Is this better?

這是否更好？

Yes, this is better.

是的，這樣更好。

So I guess I was just following up on what Jon was saying and commenting that -- noticing that you guys have incredibly strong balance sheet. Inger has done a great job in pushing out the debt maturities out to 2023. And instead of just taking it purely from a fleet expansion perspective, what about your appetite to increase your operational leverage of terming in new charters of any sort of duration?

所以我想我只是在跟進喬恩的言論和評論——注意到你們擁有非常強大的資產負債表。Inger 在將債務到期期限推遲至 2023 年方面做得非常出色。不僅僅是從船隊擴張的角度來看，您是否有興趣增加任何期限的新租約的營運槓桿？

Yes. So if I got you correctly, basically to increase our -- the appetite to increase our operational leverage. The thing is that -- let me answer the question in a different manner. So we -- right now, we're really happy with the situation we're in because we have a fleet that's spot exposed to a very large degree. Apart from the 5 Suezmaxes we have on long-term time charter out, we are nearly 100% spot exposed.

是的。因此，如果我沒理解錯的話，基本上是為了增加我們增加營運槓桿的慾望。問題是──讓我以不同的方式回答這個問題。所以我們——現在，我們對目前的情況非常滿意，因為我們的機隊在很大程度上暴露在外。除了我們長期租的 5 艘蘇伊士型油輪外，我們幾乎 100% 擁有現貨。

So basically, we are in a position where we want to reach the benefits, whether if we want to increase kind of our ability to make more money, I think that's potentially a few months out. And back to the previous comment, we are looking, but I can't really confirm anything.

所以基本上，我們處於想要獲得收益的位置，無論我們是否想要提高賺更多錢的能力，我認為這可能需要幾個月的時間。回到先前的評論，我們正在尋找，但我無法真正確認任何事情。

Yes. No, that's fair. And I guess if you're looking, are you able to share sort of color if you're looking at these specific propulsion tags or maybe in the more (technical difficulty) is there something that you can share?

是的。不，這很公平。我想如果您正在尋找，如果您正在查看這些特定的推進標籤，您是否能夠分享某種顏色，或者也許在更多（技術難度）方面您可以分享一些東西？

Sorry, I'm really struggling to hear you, but did you mention propulsion?

抱歉，我真的很難聽清楚你的聲音，但你提到推進力了嗎？

Is it -- sorry, is this better?

抱歉，這樣更好嗎？

Yes. You're breaking off. But whether if we are looking at various propulsion types, yes, we are but we're not ready to invest on that yet. We think the jury is to some degree out. As I mentioned in our Q3 presentation, with our modern fleet, we're actually in a pretty good shape at least when it comes to emissions towards 2030. Obviously, for us to make an investment in propulsion, and with that, I mean, retrofitting or ordering kind of shifts with a different propulsion than the traditional one, we actually need to see -- it's a little bit like the scrubber discussion. We and others started to invest in scrubbers when it was obvious the economical case for it. On propulsion, it's not yet. We don't know -- well, we're pretty sure there will be a common tax. We don't know how much it's going to be. We don't know how it's going to be applied. But -- so basically, the propulsion discussion is still something we have -- I could easily say that both LPG and LNG and then eventually ammonia looks probably the way to go, but -- or one of the ways to go. I think we'll end up in a situation where there are various propulsion types depending on what kind of trade you're doing.

是的。你要斷絕關係了但如果我們正在考慮各種推進類型，是的，我們正在考慮，但我們還沒有準備好對此進行投資。我們認為陪審團在某種程度上已經出局了。正如我在第三季的演示中提到的，憑藉我們的現代化機隊，我們實際上處於非常好的狀態，至少在 2030 年的排放量方面是如此。顯然，對我們來說，要對推進裝置進行投資，我的意思是，用與傳統推進裝置不同的推進裝置進行改造或訂購某種換檔，我們實際上需要看到——這有點像洗滌器的討論。當洗滌器的經濟意義顯而易見時，我們和其他人開始投資洗滌器。在推進方面，還沒有。我們不知道——好吧，我們很確定將會徵收共同稅。我們不知道會是多少。我們不知道它將如何應用。但是- 所以基本上，推進討論仍然是我們所進行的- 我可以很容易地說液化石油氣和液化天然氣，然後最終氨看起來可能是要走的路，但是- 或者是要走的路之一。我認為我們最終會遇到這樣一種情況：根據你所從事的交易類型，有不同的推進類型。

But I think it's very important to keep in mind that shipowners, we can't be paying for these outcomes. So basically the market needs to tell us what it's willing to pay for, if that was the market...

但我認為，船東們要記住，我們不能為這些結果買單，這一點非常重要。所以基本上市場需要告訴我們它願意付出什麼代價，如果這是市場的話...

Okay. Right. Yes. Part of it, but -- I mean, I'm going to just try to reconnect and jump back in queue. So sorry about my connection.

好的。正確的。是的。一部分，但是——我的意思是，我將嘗試重新連接並跳回隊列中。對我的連接感到非常抱歉。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our next question comes from the line of Randy Giveans from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Randy Giveans。

All right. So just asking about the dividend. Obviously, you bought that back last year, having paid a dividend now for the last 2 quarters. So if earnings return as expected, I guess, here in the coming quarters, is there a formula for the dividend to return? Or is it kind of fully discretionary? And if so, what will cause you to reintroduce the dividend?

好的。所以只是問股息。顯然，你去年買回了它，現在已經支付了過去兩個季度的股息。因此，如果獲利回報符合預期，我想，在未來幾個季度，是否有股息回報的公式？還是完全可以自由裁量？如果是這樣，什麼會促使您重新引入股息？

Randy, I think it's like we stated in the earnings release. It's -- we are in a way dedicated to return dividends to our shareholders, the Board is, but we would have to look at both positive results. First, we have to have a positive result and then obviously, also we will have to look at the market next station. So that's the same wording in a way as we have in our press release.

蘭迪，我認為這就像我們在財報中所說的那樣。我們致力於向股東返還股息，董事會也是如此，但我們必須同時關注這兩個正面的結果。首先，我們必須取得正面的結果，然後顯然，我們也必須關注下一站的市場。這在某種程度上與我們新聞稿中的措辭相同。

Got it. Okay. And then as you operate in both the crude and the products tanker market, which of those or maybe which asset class, VLCCs, Suezmaxs, LR2s, are you most bullish on here in the coming months?

知道了。好的。然後，當您在原油和成品油輪市場運作時，您在未來幾個月最看好其中哪一種或哪一種資產類別（VLCC、蘇伊士型油輪、LR2）？

Well, I've been asked that a couple of times today, actually. And so we are -- our company is like a 4-cylinder engine, where we have the VLCC, Suezmax, we have the LR2s that are trading clean and dirty. So right -- recently, we've had at least some spark in the Suezmax cylinder, not to any excitement at all, but at least recovering from negative returns.

嗯，事實上，今天我已經被問過好幾次了。所以我們——我們的公司就像一個 4 缸發動機，我們有 VLCC、Suezmax，我們有 LR2，它們的交易乾淨和骯髒。所以，最近，我們至少在蘇伊士型油輪上看到了一些火花，一點也不令人興奮，但至少從負回報中恢復過來。

Right now, we have the Aframax base where there's some excitement due to weather and disruptions in U.S. Gulf. I'm unsure which segment will be hit first, to be quite honest, when the recovery story starts to kind of come true, potentially the VLCC markets because eventually you need refinery runs to increase for products to flow. But the start of any return of volume will probably come from the Middle East, which would firstly benefit VLCCs, I would say.

目前，我們有阿芙拉型油輪基地，由於天氣和美國海灣的干擾，這裡有些令人興奮。老實說，當復甦的故事開始成為現實時，我不確定哪個細分市場將首先受到衝擊，可能是 VLCC 市場，因為最終需要增加煉油廠的運作才能使產品流通。但我想說，運量恢復的開始可能來自中東，這首先將使 VLCC 受益。

Got it. All right. That's fair. And then quickly here on asset values. How have those been impacted kind of in this current market weakness? However, there's also an optimistic outlook, right, for the back half of this year. So it seems like the share price rally has maybe outpaced the increases in asset values, is that accurate? Or what are you seeing on that front?

知道了。好的。這還算公平。然後快速討論資產價值。在當前市場疲軟的情況下，這些因素受到了什麼樣的影響？然而，今年下半年的前景也很樂觀。所以看起來股價上漲的速度可能超過了資產價值的成長，這是準確的嗎？還是你在這方面看到了什麼？

I agree with your analysis. I believe share price -- the share market is pricing the recovery a little bit further out. So obviously, jumping over the unsecurity in the front here. But we have seen a few transactions that kind of underpin the values, at least if you look at the 5-year old bucket. We're also about to get some price transparency, I believe, on resale and new build.

我同意你的分析。我相信股價——股票市場正在為復甦定價。很明顯，要跳過前面的不安全因素。但我們已經看到一些交易在一定程度上支撐了這些價值，至少如果你看看 5 年歷史的桶子。我相信，我們還將在轉售和新建方面獲得一定的價格透明度。

But I wouldn't say it's an upward movement, but I would say it's -- we're at least firmly at what might be the floor.

但我不會說這是一個向上的運動，但我會說它是——我們至少牢牢地處於可能的底部。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further question at this time. Please go ahead.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，目前我們沒有其他問題了。請繼續。

We have no further questions at this time. Please continue.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。請繼續。

Okay. With that, I would like to thank you all for listening. We are excited for the time to come in tankers, and wish you all a great weekend. Thank you.

好的。在此，我要感謝大家的聆聽。我們很高興能乘坐油輪抵達，並祝大家週末愉快。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們現在可以斷開連結了。謝謝。