使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Frontline Plc Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Frontline Plc 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)。請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Lars Barstad. Please go ahead.
我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人拉爾斯·巴斯塔德 (Lars Barstad)。請繼續。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Thank you. Dear all. Thank you for listening in to Frontline's second quarter earnings call. In the second quarter, we had a very untypical spike for VLCC and Suezmax towards the end. And this puts us in a position to make some extra cash and also to carry some value into the third quarter.
謝謝。各位。感謝您收聽 Frontline 第二季度財報電話會議。在第二季度,VLCC 和蘇伊士型油輪在接近尾聲時出現了非常不典型的峰值。這使我們能夠賺取一些額外的現金,並為第三季度帶來一些價值。
Most interestingly, this spike was caused by minor weather delays, telling a tail of how narrowly balanced our market is. The macroeconomical headwinds seem to have a very muted impact on our little part of the global macro puzzle, and we'll get to that later in the presentation.
最有趣的是,這一峰值是由輕微的天氣延誤引起的,這表明我們的市場是多麼的狹窄平衡。宏觀經濟逆風似乎對我們在全球宏觀難題中的一小部分產生了非常微弱的影響,我們將在稍後的演示中討論這一點。
I think it's worth mentioning that in the markets like these, from clients efficient and transparent platform comes to shine in effectively turning revenues to shareholder returns. Our running cost remains fairly stable, as expressed in our cash breakeven levels and all the incremental income goes straight to the bottom line and back to you, shareholders.
我認為值得一提的是,在這樣的市場中,來自客戶的高效、透明的平台在有效地將收入轉化為股東回報方面大放異彩。我們的運營成本保持相當穩定,正如我們的現金收支平衡水平所體現的那樣,所有增量收入都直接計入利潤並返還給股東。
Before I give the word to Inger, let's look at our TCE numbers on Slide 3 in the deck. In the second quarter, Frontline achieved $64,000 per day on our VLCC fleet; $,700 per day on our Suezmax fleet and $52,900 per day on our LR2/Aframax fleet. I hope you're all fairly comfortable with these numbers, and we are back to a somewhat reverted earnings relationship between our segments, where the VLCC makes the most.
在我告訴 Inger 之前,讓我們先看看幻燈片 3 上的 TCE 數字。第二季度,Frontline 的 VLCC 船隊每天收入達到 64,000 美元;我們的 Suezmax 船隊每天 700 美元,我們的 LR2/Aframax 船隊每天 52,900 美元。我希望你們對這些數字都相當滿意,我們的部門之間的盈利關係又回到了某種程度的恢復,其中 VLCC 賺得最多。
We have secured quite firm numbers as we progress into Q3, with the 74% of our VLCC days booked at $53,200 per day; 67% of our Suezmax days fixed at $48,800 per day and 57% of our LR2/Aframax at $40,500 per day.
隨著進入第三季度,我們已經獲得了相當確定的數字,我們 74% 的 VLCC 日預訂價格為每天 53,200 美元;我們 67% 的 Suezmax 船天數固定為每天 48,800 美元,57% 的 LR2/Aframax 船天數固定為每天 40,500 美元。
And again, to remind you, all these numbers are on a load to discharge basis, and they will be affected by the amount of balance days that we end up having towards the end of Q3.
再次提醒您,所有這些數字都是基於負載到放電的基礎上的,它們將受到我們在第三季度末最終擁有的平衡天數的影響。
Now I'll let Inger take you through the financial highlights.
現在我將讓英格帶您了解財務亮點。
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Thanks, Lars, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's then turn to Slide 4, profit statement and look at some highlights. We have -- in the second quarter of '23, we recorded the highest second quarter profit since 2008 of $230.7 million or $1.04 per share. Adjusted profit came in at $210 million or $0.95 per share. Revenues came in at $513 million. We declared a cash dividend of $0.80 per share.
謝謝拉爾斯,女士們先生們早上好,下午好。然後讓我們轉向幻燈片 4,利潤表,看看一些亮點。 2023 年第二季度,我們錄得自 2008 年以來最高的第二季度利潤,達到 2.307 億美元,即每股 1.04 美元。調整後利潤為 2.1 億美元,即每股 0.95 美元。收入為 5.13 億美元。我們宣布派發每股 0.80 美元的現金股息。
I will mention that following the transition to IFRS, dry-docking costs will be capitalized and subsequently depreciated over the period to the next scheduled dry-docking, which is 2.5 to 5 years. In the second quarter, dry-docking costs of $1 million have been capitalized and 1 vessel was dry-docked in this quarter. In addition, I will mention that the company revised the estimated useful life of its vessels from 25 years to 20 years effective January 1, 2023.
我要提到的是,在過渡到 IFRS 後,進塢成本將被資本化,並隨後在下一次計劃進塢期間(2.5 至 5 年)進行折舊。第二季度,100萬美元的進塢成本已資本化,本季度有1艘船進塢。此外,我要提到的是,該公司自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起將其船舶的預計使用壽命從 25 年修改為 20 年。
Let's then look at some balance products on Slide 5. The company has no remaining newbuilding commitments as the company took delivery of the 2 last VLCC newbuildings, Front Orkla and Front Tyne, in January 2023. The company has strong liquidity of $719 million in cash and cash equivalents, including undrawn amount of unsecured facility. Marketable securities and minimum cash requirements for bank as per the 30th of June 2023. And we have a healthy leverage ratio of 51%.
然後讓我們看看幻燈片5 上的一些平衡產品。該公司沒有剩餘的新造船承諾,因為該公司於2023 年1 月接收了最後兩艘VLCC 新造船Front Orkla 和Front Tyne。該公司擁有7.19 億美元的現金,流動性強勁。以及現金等價物,包括未提取的無擔保貸款金額。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日,銀行有價證券和最低現金要求。我們的槓桿率為 51%。
Then lastly, let's look at the cash flow potential on Slide 6. We estimate industry-leading cost breakeven rate of $22,700 fleet average, including dry-dock costs for 8 Suezmax tankers in 2023, 4 in the third quarter and 4 in the fourth quarter.
最後,讓我們看看幻燈片6 上的現金流潛力。我們估計船隊平均成本盈虧平衡率為22,700 美元,處於行業領先水平,其中包括2023 年8 艘蘇伊士型油輪、第三季度4 艘、第四季度4 艘的干船塢成本。
The Q2 '23 fleet average spot excluding dry-dock was $7,300 per day. We know this from graph on the right-hand side that free cash flow indicates strong potential return. If we assume with the TCE rate of $75,000 per day, with 5.5-year historic spread to VLCC for Suezmax and LR2 tankers. The annual free cash flow potential is $1.4 billion or $6.34 per share, which translates into a free cash flow yield of 36%.
23 年第 2 季度,不包括幹船塢的船隊平均現貨價格為每天 7,300 美元。我們從右側的圖表中知道,自由現金流表明了強勁的潛在回報。如果我們假設 TCE 率為每天 75,000 美元,蘇伊士型油輪和 LR2 油輪與 VLCC 的歷史價差為 5.5 年。年度自由現金流潛力為 14 億美元或每股 6.34 美元,相當於自由現金流收益率為 36%。
With this, I'll leave over to Lars, again.
說到這裡,我將再次把時間留給拉斯。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Thank you, Inger. So let's go to Slide 7 and look at what's going on in the current market. So we've just been through a very volatile summer market. Hopefully, it's coming to an end. The key themes have been Asia Pacific continue to pull volume. We're seeing increased supply from what I would refer to as new exporters, as you can see on the bottom right-hand side chart, this is United States and Brazil. They're not really new, but they are kind of growing at least and then Guyana, which is like the added spice to the mix here.
謝謝你,英格。那麼讓我們轉到幻燈片 7 看看當前市場正在發生什麼。所以我們剛剛經歷了一個非常動蕩的夏季市場。希望這一切即將結束。亞太地區的關鍵主題是繼續拉動成交量。我們看到我所說的新出口商的供應增加,正如您在右下角圖表中看到的那樣,這是美國和巴西。它們並不是真正的新東西,但至少它們正在成長,然後是圭亞那,這就像這裡的混合香料。
As OPEC cut production predominantly around the Middle East, and with the continuous pull from Asia Pacific, we've seen turnout increase and benefiting VLCC ton-miles, in particular.
由於歐佩克主要在中東地區減產,加上亞太地區的持續減產,我們看到參與人數增加,特別是 VLCC 噸英里受益。
Year-on-year or quarter of Q2 last year versus Q2 this year, demand in the Asia Pacific region is actually up 1.8 million barrels per day. That's quite significant, considering most of that oil is being freighted on tankers. And this represents about a 5% increase in conventional volume for going on shipping. And that -- those 5% is not taking into account a ton-mile effect.
與去年第二季度相比,今年第二季度,亞太地區的需求實際上每天增加了 180 萬桶。考慮到大部分石油都是通過油輪運輸的,這是相當重要的。這意味著常規運輸量增加了約 5%。這 5% 沒有考慮噸英里效應。
We started to see that the Russian price cap started to bite in Q2. I'll come a bit back to that later. We are also seeing refinery margin improving as we moved towards the end of maintenance season. And we have the background music of basically every analyst under the sun, expecting oil demand to grow by about 2 million barrels per day for the second half.
我們開始看到俄羅斯的價格上限在第二季度開始受到影響。稍後我會回過頭來討論這一點。隨著維護季節即將結束,我們還看到煉油廠利潤率有所改善。我們幾乎聽到了世界上每一位分析師的背景音樂,預計下半年石油需求將每天增長約 200 萬桶。
Let's go to Slide 8, and I'll go through the Russian price cap and what effect that has had on our markets. So the G7 oil price cap came in to effect in December 2022, and it was set up to $60 per barrel for Russian crudes. We're using on the bottom left-hand side, the Urals as the reference oil price, and is predominantly the quality one discusses around Russian supply.
讓我們轉到幻燈片 8,我將介紹俄羅斯的價格上限以及這對我們市場的影響。因此,G7石油價格上限於2022年12月生效,俄羅斯原油價格上限為每桶60美元。我們在左下角使用烏拉爾作為參考油價,主要是圍繞俄羅斯供應討論的質量。
With the price moving above the price cap, it's become increasingly complex to freight Russian oil. We've seen various kind of policies amongst owners, whether if they're willing to service the Russian market or not year-to-date. But what we have seen now recently is that some of these owners are less lenient to lift Russian barrels basically because it's very hard to argue you're doing it inside the framework of the current sanctions.
隨著價格超過價格上限,運輸俄羅斯石油變得越來越複雜。我們已經看到業主之間有各種各樣的政策,無論他們是否願意為俄羅斯市場提供服務。但我們最近看到的是,這些船主中的一些人對提升俄羅斯石油桶的態度不太寬容,基本上是因為很難說你是在當前製裁的框架內這樣做的。
These vessels are then returning to the non-Russian market or the plain vanilla, Suezmax and Aframax market, and this has put pressure on rates as obviously, the capacity then has increased particularly in these fleet sizes.
然後,這些船舶將返回非俄羅斯市場或普通、蘇伊士型和阿芙拉型市場,這給運價帶來了壓力,因為顯然,運力增加了,特別是在這些船隊規模中。
Product exports has been less, it hasn't yet kind of traded above the price cap. It is actually flirting with the price cap now where the price cap is actually at $100 for gasoline. Not that gasoline is a big product for Russian exports, but it's kind of -- it's a product to represent where product -- where it is.
產品出口減少,交易價格尚未超過上限。實際上,現在汽油的價格上限實際上是 100 美元。並不是說汽油是俄羅斯出口的重要產品,但它是一種代表產品所在位置的產品。
And gasoline in Singapore is now trading very close to $100 per barrel. We've seen Russian exports kind of falling quite rapidly due to this. We've lost 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian exports since the peak in April. 400,000 barrels of that is products, and we see that the fall there is less pronounced with 1.3 million barrels per day of crude or fuel oil has been lost during the last 5, 6 months.
新加坡的汽油價格目前非常接近每桶 100 美元。我們已經看到俄羅斯的出口因此而迅速下降。自 4 月份高峰以來,我們每天損失了 170 萬桶俄羅斯出口量。其中 40 萬桶是產品,我們發現下降幅度不太明顯,過去 5、6 個月每天損失 130 萬桶原油或燃料油。
It's going to be very interesting to see how this develops further. We're starting to see analysts arguing for the Russian controlled fleet or the Russian owned fleet struggling to maintain volumes which is evident looking at the export statistics.
看看這將如何進一步發展將會非常有趣。我們開始看到分析師認為俄羅斯控制的艦隊或俄羅斯擁有的艦隊難以維持產量,這一點從出口統計數據中可以明顯看出。
The only way they can kind of replace the capacity there now would be to actually go into the non-Russian trading fleet and purchase more assets. There are actually, in fact, fairly high numbers of vessels that's needed in order for them to maintain their export levels, should they want to do so.
他們現在可以替代那裡的能力的唯一方法是實際進入非俄羅斯貿易船隊併購買更多資產。事實上,如果他們願意的話,實際上需要相當多的船隻才能維持出口水平。
They are obviously a part of OPEC+, so the official argument will always be that they're working in line with the OPEC strategy with the voluntary cuts. But we believe that it can be very interesting to see what happens in both the market for older purchases -- older vessels (inaudible) we trade, particularly then for Aframax and Suezmax as this progresses.
他們顯然是 OPEC+ 的一部分,因此官方的論點始終是他們正在按照 OPEC 的自願減產戰略進行工作。但我們相信,看看舊船購買市場上發生的情況是非常有趣的——我們交易的舊船(聽不清),特別是隨著這一進程的進展,阿芙拉型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪。
Let's move to Slide 9 and look at what's going on in the refinery world. I think it's important we almost forget because we've had so many black swans and whatnot in the tanker industry for the last few years. But the seasonal summer slowness or softness is, in fact, caused by the scheduling of refinery maintenance.
讓我們轉到幻燈片 9,看看煉油廠世界正在發生什麼。我認為我們幾乎忘記了這一點很重要,因為過去幾年我們在油輪行業出現了很多黑天鵝之類的事情。但夏季季節性的緩慢或疲軟實際上是由煉油廠檢修安排造成的。
On the bottom left-hand side there, we see kind of global refinery outages. These are basically the refining volume that's been taken out due to maintenance work. And we see it's a very distinct kind of highest in April. And likewise, there's also a distinct high in September, October where refineries are shut in basically to do maintenance work so that they can run effectively either for the summer season or for the winter season. This has fairly significant effect on demand for oil and also demand for tonnage then.
在左下角,我們看到全球煉油廠出現停運。這些基本上是由於維護工作而被取出的精煉量。我們看到這是四月份非常獨特的最高點。同樣,九月、十月也有一個明顯的高點,煉油廠基本上關閉進行維護工作,以便它們能夠在夏季或冬季有效運行。這對石油需求以及噸位需求產生了相當大的影響。
What we see now is that we're heading in towards kind of on the refinery turnaround side, we're actually fairly low, but we're going, we are going to go into the high turnaround season in September, October. So it's actually looking at it on face value, it looks fairly varies bearish for tanker to come home. But one has to remember that the tankers are fixed ahead, VLCC now is being fixed for mid-September. And the oil will land in the various refining regions by end September.
我們現在看到的是,我們正朝著煉油廠周轉的方向前進,實際上我們的水平相當低,但我們將在九月、十月進入高周轉季節。因此,實際上從表面上看,油輪迴家的前景相當悲觀。但必須記住,油輪已經提前修復完畢,VLCC 的修復工作將於 9 月中旬進行。石油將於九月底抵達各個煉油區。
If you look at West African crude that's being fixed today will actually land in the beginning of October. And in the U.S. Gulf, we're actually already fixing for oil that will land in the mid-October. So basically, it's over the next few weeks, we will start to see kind of the purchasing managers on behalf of the refineries starting to plan to bring more oil into the refinery as they come out of turnaround.
如果你看看今天確定的西非原油,實際上將在十月初登陸。在美國海灣,我們實際上已經在確定將於 10 月中旬登陸的石油。所以基本上,在接下來的幾週內,我們將開始看到代表煉油廠的採購經理開始計劃在煉油廠結束扭虧為盈後將更多的石油帶入煉油廠。
Looking at the refinery margins, they are firming. This is obviously a result of refinery outages, but it's also a fairly strong signal of demand expected to look fairly okay. The diesel margins are leading the pace and this is typical for the season. The winter season is kind of predominantly diesel market, this historically due to heating whilst the summer market is -- sorry, the -- yes, the summer market is more gasoline market due to driving. We had a very mild winter last year in the Northern Hemisphere. Well, the jury is still out, but will we have that occurring again.
看看煉油廠的利潤率,它們正在堅挺。這顯然是煉油廠停運的結果,但這也是一個相當強烈的信號,表明需求看起來相當不錯。柴油利潤率領先,這是本季度的典型情況。冬季主要是柴油市場,這在歷史上是由於供暖所致,而夏季市場是——抱歉,是的,由於駕駛,夏季市場更多是汽油市場。去年北半球我們度過了一個非常溫和的冬天。好吧,陪審團還沒有定論,但我們會再次發生這種情況嗎?
Let's move to Slide 10. And just to be known to everyone who's been on from Frontline call before, basically, the fleets and order books. It's kind of the notable thing to comment on in this quarter is actually the increase in ordering for LR2's. We've seen 15 new LR2 orders being placed in the first half of this year, and that's bringing up the order book close to 20%.
讓我們轉到幻燈片 10。為了讓所有在前線打電話的人都知道,基本上是在艦隊和訂單簿之前。本季度值得注意的事情實際上是 LR2 訂單的增加。今年上半年我們收到了 15 份新的 LR2 訂單,這使得訂單量接近 20%。
If you -- we also use a measure of a 20-year effective lifetime for trading tanker. This 20 year is actually more like a 15-year for an LR2. LR2s have coated tanks and the coating in these tanks will kind of lose its quality over years. So charters are very hesitant to book a clean LR2 above 15 years. If you use that as a measure, about 22.9% of the LR2 fleet is about -- it's going to be above 15 years this year. Then the order book actually doesn't really look in that worrying.
如果您——我們還使用 20 年有效壽命來衡量油輪貿易。對於LR2來說,這20年實際上更像是15年。 LR2 擁有帶塗層的油箱,這些油箱中的塗層隨著時間的推移會失去其質量。因此,租船公司對於預訂15年以上乾淨的LR2非常猶豫。如果以此作為衡量標準,大約 22.9% 的 LR2 機隊今年的使用壽命將超過 15 年。那麼訂單簿實際上看起來並不那麼令人擔憂。
What is worrying is the lack of order books for VLCC and Suezmax. We have the highest percentage of kind of the population above 20 years we've ever seen. 108 VLCCs will be either be above or past 20 years this year. 85 Suezmaxes will be above or past 20 years this year. And on the order book side, if you go into the market to book a tanker now and particularly on the VLCC, you're looking at second half 2026 delivery. That's 3 years from now, and it doesn't really add up to the overall expectations of oil demand remaining fairly firm for the next 3 to 4 years.
令人擔憂的是VLCC和蘇伊士型油輪訂單不足。我們的 20 歲以上人口比例是有史以來最高的。今年有 108 艘 VLCC 的船齡將超過或超過 20 年。今年,85 艘蘇伊士型油輪的船齡將超過或超過 20 年。在訂單方面,如果您現在進入市場預訂一艘油輪,特別是 VLCC,那麼您關注的是 2026 年下半年的交付。那是三年後的事了,這並不能真正滿足未來三到四年石油需求保持相當堅挺的總體預期。
So with that, I'm going to move into the summary side on Slide 11. We're very happy to report the highest second quarter profit since 2008 of $210 million and a cash dividend of 0.80 per share. In the last 4 quarters, if my record is correct in year, we've paid out $2.72.
因此,我將進入幻燈片 11 的摘要部分。我們非常高興地報告自 2008 年以來最高的第二季度利潤 2.1 億美元,每股現金股息為 0.80 美元。在過去 4 個季度中,如果我的年度記錄正確的話,我們支付了 2.72 美元。
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
That's correct.
這是正確的。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
And with an average share price during that period of $13.9, that's a 20% yield. So quite impressive, I believe. Asia demand continues to be supportive, and OPEC cuts are driving ton-miles. The price cap on Russia crude is starting to bite and what's going to happen next there. Seasonal refining maintenance coming to an end and margins are improving, and this is what we're going to kind of see reflected in the -- particularly the VLCC and then secondly, the Suezmax market over the next few weeks. Ordering is still muted for the bigger vessels for the 1 million-barrel and the 2 million-barrel vessels, but LR2's, we've seen a lot of activity in the last couple of months.
考慮到該時期的平均股價為 13.9 美元,收益率為 20%。我相信,非常令人印象深刻。亞洲需求繼續受到支撐,歐佩克減產正在推動。俄羅斯原油的價格上限開始受到影響,接下來會發生什麼。季節性煉油維護即將結束,利潤率正在改善,這就是我們將在未來幾週內看到的反映,尤其是 VLCC,其次是蘇伊士型油輪市場。對於 100 萬桶和 200 萬桶的大型船舶的訂購仍然很少,但 LR2 的訂單在過去幾個月裡我們看到了很多活動。
How the big question is obviously how the winter will play out this year. But then I think kind of the background music and the absolute biggest question in the tanker industry going forward is represented by the chart at the bottom here. The tanker order book as a percent of fleet. I've just taken it from 1996 to show kind of a little bit of the history behind us. We see the dark kind of blue line, which is the product tankers that started to react, but not to any extent so far. And then we see the gray one being the VLCC, which is supposed to be the pipeline of the world on crude oil, virtually nothing on order.
顯然,最大的問題是今年的冬天將如何發展。但我認為背景音樂和未來油輪行業絕對最大的問題是由底部的圖表代表的。油輪訂單量佔船隊的百分比。我只是從 1996 年開始拍攝,以展示我們背後的一些歷史。我們看到深色的藍線,這是開始反應的成品油輪,但到目前為止還沒有反應到任何程度。然後我們看到灰色的是 VLCC,它應該是世界原油管道,實際上沒有訂單。
With that, I think we can open up to questions.
這樣,我想我們就可以提出問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The question comes from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore.
(操作員說明)該問題來自 Evercore 的 Jon Chappell。
Jonathan B. Chappell - Senior MD
Jonathan B. Chappell - Senior MD
Lars, you mentioned in this closing slide, the question about the winter. Everything seems queued up pretty well from the inventories to the refining maintenance coming to an end to the IEA's outlook for the second half sequential recovery. What can go wrong this winter? Is it just a macro event where oil demand continues to disappoint? Is there something related to Russia? Do the Saudis become more emboldened and keep more oil off the market. So there's a bigger inventory draw, but the tankers don't see the demand. Where can we miss the typical seasonal recovery that seems set up so well?
拉爾斯,您在最後一張幻燈片中提到了有關冬天的問題。從庫存到即將結束的煉油維護,再到國際能源署對下半年連續復甦的展望,一切似乎都在有序進行。這個冬天可能會出現什麼問題?這只是石油需求持續令人失望的宏觀事件嗎?有沒有和俄羅斯有關的事情?沙特會變得更加大膽,將更多石油排除在市場之外嗎?因此,庫存消耗更大,但油輪沒有看到需求。我們在哪裡可以錯過看起來如此完美的典型季節性複蘇?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
I think there's 2 key factors that needs to be watched. One is obviously China. There's mixed signals coming from -- so in our little part of the world, as I mentioned, which is transport of oil. China looks to run on all cylinders, their import numbers are kind of record high every month. And that doesn't tally up with kind of all the other macroeconomical data coming out of China. So if they're building issue -- building a lot of inventories into the winter here, they have, at least historically, they've been able to kind of take the foot off the gas pedal and suddenly disappoint by 1 million or 2 million barrels per day in their import program.
我認為有兩個關鍵因素需要關注。其中之一顯然是中國。正如我提到的,在我們這個世界的一小部分地區,即石油運輸,發出了混合信號。中國希望全力運轉,每個月的進口數量都創歷史新高。這與來自中國的所有其他宏觀經濟數據並不相符。因此,如果他們正在建立問題 - 在這裡建立大量庫存到冬天,他們至少從歷史上看,他們已經能夠將腳從油門踏板上鬆開,然後突然令人失望 100 萬或 200 萬他們的進口計劃中每天桶數。
And if that happens, we'll that's obviously not going to be very, very bullish. So I think that's the big question. Are they either running in preparation for other stimulus that will stimulate their economy to need basically all this oil? Are they importing in order to have the ability to export into the winter season? Or are they basically trying to hoard crude oil before an expected price increase on crude oil or others? It's very difficult to know. But I think that's the thing to watch. And kind of with the imports next to all the economical news we're getting out of China, it's -- well one tends to become a little bit worried.
如果發生這種情況,我們顯然不會非常非常樂觀。所以我認為這是一個大問題。他們是否正在為其他刺激措施做準備,以刺激他們的經濟基本上需要所有這些石油?他們進口是為了有能力在冬季出口嗎?或者他們基本上是想在原油或其他產品價格預期上漲之前囤積原油?這很難知道。但我認為這才是值得關注的事情。隨著進口和我們從中國獲得的所有經濟新聞一起,人們往往會變得有點擔心。
Secondly, it was obviously the weather and the weather we can't really control. Whether if we're going to have a repeat of last year which was fairly warm? Or if we're going to have a proper full-on winter, which is going to kind of affect demand on the positive side. So I think those 2 are the key factors that, at least I'm a little bit concerned about.
其次,顯然是天氣,而且我們無法真正控制天氣。我們是否會重演去年相當溫暖的情況?或者,如果我們要度過一個全面的冬季,這將會對需求產生積極的影響。所以我認為這兩個是至少我有點擔心的關鍵因素。
Jonathan B. Chappell - Senior MD
Jonathan B. Chappell - Senior MD
Okay. That makes sense. Just a follow-up question on strategy. I thought it was interesting you noted the dearth. I mean we all know that there's not much of an order book, but you said that's even a concern, that there's not enough ships to offset some of the older ships. It's kind of rare to see frontline without anything on your newbuilding plan? Given that give and take of not getting a ship for 3 years or the economics of it versus maybe a need at some point in the back of the decade? How do we think about your capital investment on newbuilds or secondhand ships going forward?
好的。這就說得通了。只是關於策略的後續問題。我覺得你注意到這種匱乏很有趣。我的意思是我們都知道訂單簿不多,但你說這甚至是一個問題,沒有足夠的船隻來抵消一些舊船。在你的新造船計劃中很少看到前線沒有任何東西嗎?考慮到三年內沒有獲得一艘船的代價,或者考慮到它的經濟性與十年後某個時刻的可能需求之間的關係?我們如何看待你們未來對新造船或二手船的資本投資?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Well, I think on the newbuild, we are definitely sitting on the fence. We've been kind of commenting on that before. You need flat out north of $50,000 per day in 20 -- every day for 20 years in order to make sense of going and ordering a newbuild at these levels.
好吧,我認為對於新建項目,我們肯定持觀望態度。我們之前已經對此發表過評論。你需要在 20 年內每天花費 50,000 美元以上——20 年內的每一天,才能理解在這些水平上訂購新船的意義。
And then obviously, you have the technology discussion kind of adding to that. So we don't see that as a good proposition. On the secondhand market, yes, we will always be looking. But I think as you also know, there's been extremely little modern tonnage out offered. There has been a couple of deals done, but it's been very, very slow. So it hasn't really been a big option. So and this is where I've kind of alluded to in previous calls that maybe we are in a harvest period. It's difficult to say.
顯然,您還進行了技術討論。所以我們認為這不是一個好的提議。在二手市場上,是的,我們將一直在尋找。但我想你也知道,提供的現代噸位極少。已經完成了幾筆交易,但進展非常非常緩慢。所以這並不是一個很大的選擇。因此,這就是我在之前的電話中提到的,也許我們正處於收穫期。很難說。
Jonathan B. Chappell - Senior MD
Jonathan B. Chappell - Senior MD
Would you harvest by selling any more older tonnage? Or are you just happy with the fleet as it stands today?
您會通過出售更多舊噸位來收穫嗎?或者您只是對目前的機隊感到滿意?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
I think we're fairly content with the composition of the fleet. Of course, we have some units that kind of further down the line, we'll probably look to let go of. But we're fairly comfortable. And some of the older vessels we hold are modified or derated and so forth. So they're actually holding pretty well into the things to come on the regulatory side. And so we're fairly content.
我認為我們對艦隊的組成相當滿意。當然,我們有一些更進一步的單位,我們可能會考慮放棄。但我們還算舒服。我們持有的一些舊船經過改造或降額等等。因此,他們實際上對監管方面即將發生的事情掌握得很好。所以我們相當滿足。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.
謝謝。現在我們要回答下一個問題。請給我們一點時間。下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。
Christopher Warren Robertson - Research Associate
Christopher Warren Robertson - Research Associate
This is Chris Robertson on for Amit. Lars, I just wanted to go back to the discussions around the supply come back into the market from the Russia trade. So as these ships come back in, are they in the penalty box at all in terms of returning to the vanilla market? Are they trading normally? How much of that supply just won't ever come back? Can you talk about that a bit more?
這是阿米特的克里斯·羅伯遜。拉爾斯,我只是想回到有關俄羅斯貿易重新進入市場的供應的討論。那麼,當這些船隻重新回歸時,它們是否會因為重返原版市場而受到懲罰呢?他們的交易正常嗎?有多少供應永遠不會回來?你能多談談嗎?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Yes. It's -- we've been kind of previously talking about the dark fleet, which is obviously Venezuelan and Iranian trading vessels, and they are kind of in the penalty box forever. And then we have the gray fleet, which may be kind of a questionable trading history and will struggle to get accepted by kind of compliant charters that way. And then we have the non-trading Russian fleet or the -- just touching the Russian oil on a few occasions, fleet and whatnot.
是的。我們之前一直在談論黑暗艦隊,這顯然是委內瑞拉和伊朗的商船,它們永遠處於禁區。然後我們有灰色船隊,這可能是一種可疑的交易歷史,並且將很難以這種方式獲得合規包機的接受。然後我們還有非貿易性的俄羅斯艦隊,或者只是幾次接觸過俄羅斯石油的艦隊等等。
And it's shades of gray, if that makes sense. What we've observed when some of these units come back to, say, the (inaudible) market, is that they might have to discount a little bit in order to get going, but we haven't seen a huge resistance from charters to as long as I don't have kind of shade the [FPS] history in their kind of papers or have kind of activity that can't explain, they're actually fine to get back. And I think we need to remind everyone of transport of Russian crude has its legal as long as it's within the sanctions.
如果這有意義的話,它是灰色陰影的。我們觀察到,當其中一些單位回到(例如,聽不清)市場時,他們可能不得不稍微打折才能繼續運營,但我們並沒有看到包租公司對他們的巨大阻力。只要我沒有在他們的論文中掩蓋[FPS] 歷史,或者進行無法解釋的活動,他們實際上就可以回來。我認為我們需要提醒大家,只要在製裁範圍內,俄羅斯原油的運輸就是合法的。
Christopher Warren Robertson - Research Associate
Christopher Warren Robertson - Research Associate
Right. Yes, that was good color. My follow-up question is related to your comments around the order book and then the lack of scrapping. As you think about 20-year-old vessels, could you give us some commentary on how much of a discount those vessels are currently earning in the market compared to the average because if it's at a shallow discount, it would imply the ships might stick around for longer.
正確的。是的,那是很好的顏色。我的後續問題與您對訂單簿的評論以及缺乏報廢有關。當您考慮 20 年船齡的船舶時,您能否給我們一些評論,說明這些船舶目前在市場上與平均水平相比有多少折扣,因為如果折扣較小,則意味著這些船舶可能會堅持下去周圍時間更長。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Yes. No, I think it's a question of that portion of the fleet is not really engaged in a normal freight market that we at least compete in. It's been a long while since we've seen a plus 20 vessels fixed by any commercial party. I think the last one was IOC last fall. So I think the way we measure it is not the discount they have to accept, but it's more the efficiency they're able to offer. So this is why we kind of, in our S&D model tends to cut their efficiencies in half the minute they past 20 years.
是的。不,我認為問題是這部分船隊並沒有真正參與我們至少參與競爭的正常貨運市場。我們已經很長一段時間沒有看到任何商業方修理超過 20 艘船隻了。我想最後一次是去年秋天的國際奧委會。所以我認為我們衡量的方式不是他們必須接受的折扣,而是他們能夠提供的效率。所以這就是為什麼我們在 S&D 模型中傾向於將他們的效率比過去 20 年降低一半。
But I think this and just to -- that question is probably coming, so I'm going to put that in there. As we proceed here, I think, yes, there is a scenario where ships will have to actually service the market for a longer period of time. And although not what we want, but we will potentially see more and more charters having to accept 20-plus vessels as a part of their -- to service them and to get oil moved. But that can only happen when we have a firm pricing. We need earnings to get to a level where the charters like Chevron, BP, Shell, Total and all these guys, and their vetting departments say, "Hey, okay, well maintain the 22-year-old vessels, we can use that." But they're not going to use that until the have rates up in $100,000, $150,000, $200,000 per day, I believe.
但我認為這個問題可能會出現,所以我要把它放在那裡。當我們繼續討論時,我認為,是的,在這種情況下,船舶將不得不在更長的時間內實際服務市場。雖然這不是我們想要的,但我們可能會看到越來越多的租船公司不得不接受 20 多艘船舶作為其一部分——為它們提供服務並運輸石油。但這只有當我們有堅定的定價時才會發生。我們需要收入達到雪佛龍、英國石油、殼牌、道達爾等特許公司及其審查部門說的水平,“嘿,好吧,好好維護這些已有 22 年船齡的船隻,我們可以使用它。 ”但我相信,除非利率上漲到每天 100,000 美元、150,000 美元、200,000 美元,否則他們不會使用它。
Operator
Operator
Thank you and now we're going to take our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Omar Nokta from Jefferies.
謝謝您,現在我們要回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta。
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Lars I have a couple of questions. Just as a follow-up, I think, to John's questions at the beginning. And your comments maybe first just on the order book and your thoughts about the -- your disinterest, I guess, in ordering VLCC's given the time frame and the cost. Is that commentary just based on VLCC's? Or does that also hold for the Suezmaxes and LR2's?
拉爾斯,我有幾個問題。我想,這只是約翰一開始提出的問題的後續。你的評論可能首先只是關於訂單簿和你的想法——我想,鑑於時間框架和成本,你對訂購 VLCC 不感興趣。該評論僅基於 VLCC 的嗎?或者這也適用於 Suezmax 和 LR2 嗎?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
I think kind of the VLCCs that's more us because we're quite content on the Suezmax size we carry. And we also have very modern Suezmax fleet, predominantly very modern Suezmax fleet. So for us, it's been looking into the VLCC space. And I think also, we've communicated quite clearly that -- but we believe that VLCCs over time, basically due to the benefit of the size kind of offers our investors more bang for the buck. But I think it could say is the same for the Suezmaxes as well.
我認為 VLCC 更適合我們,因為我們對我們攜帶的 Suezmax 尺寸非常滿意。我們還擁有非常現代化的蘇伊士型船隊,主要是非常現代化的蘇伊士型船隊。所以對我們來說,它一直在研究 VLCC 領域。我還認為,我們已經非常明確地傳達了這一點,但我們相信,隨著時間的推移,VLCC 的規模優勢將為我們的投資者帶來更多收益。但我認為蘇伊士型油輪也是如此。
The challenge we have actually in this market, if you look further into the shipyard industry is that, one thing is that owners are not really interested in ordering them, but yards are not really interested in taking the orders either.
如果你進一步研究造船廠行業,我們在這個市場上實際上面臨的挑戰是,有一件事是船東對訂購它們並不真正感興趣,但船廠也對接受訂單並不真正感興趣。
As long as there are higher margin kind of ships to build, they will prefer that. So it's kind of a little bit twofold. I also have to look at the overall yard capacity in the world and it's probably anybody's guess, but it's somewhere between 150 and 200 shipyards in the world servicing kind of commercial segments that we care about.
只要有更高利潤的船舶可供建造,他們就會更喜歡。所以這有點雙重。我還必須了解世界上造船廠的總體容量,這可能是任何人的猜測,但世界上大約有 150 到 200 個造船廠為我們關心的商業領域提供服務。
And you have, I think, currently more than 100 yards building dry bulk vessels, you have more than 80 yards building container vessels. We have 13 yards, I believe, that currently has a tanker in the order book. So it's quite peculiar. And also, you have -- the other thing is that if you take off those 13 yards that build a tanker, there's actually very few that can build the VLCC. So it's a structural kind of issue we have at hand here as long as the Koreans are completely absent from the VLCC building side.
我認為,目前你們有超過 100 個船廠建造幹散貨船,你們有超過 80 個船廠建造集裝箱船。我相信,我們有 13 個船廠,目前訂單中有一艘油輪。所以這是很奇特的。而且,另一件事是,如果去掉建造油輪的 13 碼,實際上很少有船可以建造 VLCC。因此,只要韓國人完全不參與 VLCC 建造,這就是我們面臨的結構性問題。
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
That's interesting, something has to give at some point. Maybe just one follow-up and also kind of what John was talking about and maybe the inverse of the question of what could go wrong. Maybe what could go right in terms of this market over the next few months.
這很有趣,在某些時候必須付出一些努力。也許只是一個後續行動,也是約翰所說的內容,也許是“可能會出什麼問題”問題的反面。也許未來幾個月這個市場會出現什麼好轉。
Clearly, you laid it out in your opening remarks. But just in general, we've seen, as you mentioned, the refining margins have gone up. We've seen LR2s push higher. And so when we think about both crude and products here over the next few months, should we think that LR2s will outperform for now? And then what are you looking for in terms of laying the groundwork for crude tankers to start to get a bounce?
顯然,您在開場白中已經闡述了這一點。但總的來說,正如您所提到的,我們看到煉油利潤率有所上升。我們已經看到 LR2 推得更高。因此,當我們考慮未來幾個月的原油和產品時,我們是否應該認為 LR2 目前會跑贏大盤?那麼,您希望為原油油輪開始反彈奠定基礎嗎?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Well, I think Omar, at the end of the day we need -- if we get oil demand anywhere near where EIA or IEA or OPEC or whoever you ask put it, that we go and consume 103, 103.5 million barrels per day in December, I think that's basically all we need. If that trajectory is true, I think we're going to kind of gradually come out of here. And also Russia is obviously a big x factor in addition to China. It's quite likely that with that demand projection, oil prices will behave fairly okay.
好吧,我認為奧馬爾,最終我們需要 - 如果我們的石油需求接近 EIA 或 IEA 或 OPEC 或任何你問的人所說的水平,那麼我們在 12 月份每天消耗 103, 1.035 億桶,我認為這基本上就是我們所需要的。如果這個軌跡是真的,我認為我們將逐漸走出這裡。除了中國之外,俄羅斯顯然也是一個很大的未知因素。根據這一需求預測,油價很可能表現相當不錯。
And then I think there will be initiatives from -- to start to get hold of assets that can actually transport their products. And that will kind of be the reverse of what we've seen just now where a lot of Russian or former Russian trading vessels have started to compete with us in the Suezmax and Aframax markets.
然後我認為將會採取一些舉措——開始獲得可以實際運輸其產品的資產。這將與我們剛才看到的情況相反,許多俄羅斯或前俄羅斯商船已開始在蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪市場與我們競爭。
They're basically going to go back. I saw some one headline from a broker that this fall, if that plays out, it's going to be very good for S&P brokers that deal with the kind of tonnage going in that direction to build that way. And this is obviously going to be the older tonnage in both the Suezmax and Aframax fleet.
他們基本上都會回去。我看到一位經紀人的頭條新聞稱,今年秋天,如果這種情況發生,對於處理朝這個方向建造的噸位的標準普爾經紀人來說將非常有利。這顯然是蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪船隊中較舊的噸位。
So and then there is also an alternative story starting to develop on all the kind of headwinds coming out of China because you can speculate what will they actually do now. Will they allow the country to run at half steam until kind of they get to some sort of natural recovery? Or will they actually start to stimulate in order to carry kind of their economy over this gap.
因此,還有一個關於來自中國的各種逆風的另類故事開始發展,因為你可以猜測他們現在實際上會做什麼。他們會允許國家半途而廢,直到實現某種自然復甦嗎?或者他們是否會真正開始刺激經濟,以推動經濟跨越這一差距。
And if they do so, I think we will get the same result. We will have the 2 million barrels extra of demand and we will have a healthy -- and a continued healthy import into China. So I think it's fairly easy to paint a bullish picture here. I think it's more important to try and look for the cracks because it's almost too good to be true.
如果他們這樣做,我想我們也會得到同樣的結果。我們將有 200 萬桶的額外需求,並且中國將有健康且持續健康的進口。所以我認為在這裡描繪出一幅看漲的圖景相當容易。我認為更重要的是嘗試尋找裂縫,因為它好得令人難以置信。
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Omar Mostafa Nokta - Equity Analyst
Yes. Currently looks like the script is written, and we just have to follow through on it. Great I'll pass it over. Thank you.
是的。目前看來劇本已經寫好了,我們只需要按照它執行即可。太好了,我會把它傳過去。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Now we're going to take our next question. And the question comes from the line of Chris Tsung from Webber Research. Excuse me Chris, your line is open please ask your question.
現在我們要回答下一個問題。這個問題來自韋伯研究中心的 Chris Tsung。克里斯,打擾一下,您的線路已接通,請提出您的問題。
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Hello? You say Chris?
你好?你說克里斯?
Operator
Operator
Yes, Chris Tsung. Your line is open.
是的,克里斯·宗。您的線路已開通。
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Sorry about that. I just have a quick question on your fleet. What are your plans for the 2010 built VLCC without scrubbers? Would you look to install scrubber? Or could those vessels be sold? And what would the timing be for those decisions?
對於那個很抱歉。我只是想問一個關於你們艦隊的簡單問題。對於 2010 年建造的不帶洗滌器的 VLCC,你們有何計劃?您想安裝洗滌器嗎?或者可以出售這些船隻嗎?這些決定的時機是什麼?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Well, that's a fairly specific question. I think it's very likely that they will have scrubbers in accordance with the dry-docking schedule. But we don't have any -- apart from that, it's funny how some ships are lucky ships, so they actually make money literally around every corner. And these have been very, very good operators. So for now, they're in our fleet and will going to remain there.
嗯,這是一個相當具體的問題。我認為他們很可能會按照幹塢時間表配備洗滌器。但我們沒有——除此之外,有趣的是,有些船是幸運的船,所以它們實際上在每個角落都能賺錢。這些都是非常非常優秀的運營商。所以目前,它們在我們的艦隊中並將留在那裡。
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. One for you, Inger. Sorry, I missed the part earlier where you provided dry-docking driver. Can you repeat how many vessels do you plan on dry-docking for the rest of the year?
好的。很公平。為你準備一份,英格。抱歉,我錯過了之前您提供幹塢駕駛員的部分。您能重複一下今年剩餘時間裡您計劃有多少艘船隻進乾塢嗎?
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
For the next year?
明年?
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Chris Tsung - Analyst
For the rest of the year?
今年剩下的時間?
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
For the rest of the year, we plan to dry dock 8 Suezmaxes, 4 in the third quarter and 4 in the fourth quarter.
今年剩餘時間裡,我們計劃將 8 艘蘇伊士型油輪進乾船塢,其中 4 艘在第三季度,4 艘在第四季度。
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Chris Tsung - Analyst
Okay. That's it for me.
好的。對我來說就是這樣。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from the line of (inaudible) from Frank W. Winne.
(操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Frank W. Winne(聽不清)。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Two questions. The first is, when you went from 25 to 20 years on your depreciation, how much did that reduce the earnings per share?
兩個問題。第一個問題是,當你的折舊年限從 25 年延長到 20 年時,每股收益減少了多少?
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
It was about -- per year, it totals about $60 million. So that means, yes, means divided by 222 million shares of the -- yes whatever, just a moment.
每年總計約為 6000 萬美元。所以這意味著,是的,意味著除以 2.22 億股——是的,無論如何,只是一會兒。
Operator
Operator
Excuse me, [Lo] do you have any further questions?
打擾一下,[Lo]您還有其他問題嗎?
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Yes. The second question. This deals with the...
是的。第二個問題。這涉及到...
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
Inger Marie Klemp - CFO of Frontline Management AS
36% that's the answer.
36% 這就是答案。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Okay. It's a conservative mood and I applaud you for taking that. The premium on the modern vessels. I was wondering if you could discuss that in particular, the IMO guideline, the regulatory side that you've mentioned, when does the next major change kick in? And I was curious what makes up the premium that frontline gets such a benefit on because it has the world's youngest fleet.
好的。這是一種保守的情緒,我對你採取這種態度表示讚賞。現代船舶的溢價。我想知道您是否可以特別討論一下國際海事組織(IMO)指南、您提到的監管方面,下一次重大變化何時開始?我很好奇,前線航空擁有世界上最年輕的機隊,因此獲得如此優惠的溢價是由什麼構成的。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Yes, it's Yes. That's like 5 questions in one, so you have got 5 answers, at least. Now first of all, I think kind of the biggest, IMO, it's actually not really an IMO change that's going to happen. It's the EU EPS. That's the next in line for us, for everyone in the industry. It's basically that we need to start to pay carbon tax in Europe, trading in Europe or trading into Europe or trading out of Europe with the carbon emissions related to those voyages. That comes in -- comes into effect next year. And I think it's going to -- maybe not so much for the bigger ships because it's -- they're not that frequent inside the EU zone.
是的,是的。這就像 5 個問題合二為一,所以你至少得到了 5 個答案。首先,我認為,在我看來,這實際上並不是一個真正會發生的變化。這是歐盟每股收益。這是我們以及業內每個人的下一個目標。基本上,我們需要開始在歐洲繳納碳稅,在歐洲進行貿易或進入歐洲進行貿易或從歐洲進行貿易,這些航程所產生的碳排放量。該規定將於明年生效。我認為對於大型船舶來說可能不會那麼頻繁,因為它們在歐盟區內並不那麼頻繁。
But for Suezmax and Aframax and LR2, it's going to have an impact. And there, we do believe that having efficient vessels help a lot. Also, I think kind of the discussion around alternative fuels is going to become more and more important. Right now, you wouldn't really willingly could use kind of partially biofuel in your fuel mix basically because it costs more. But obviously, if you put it against the buying carbon credit, then it becomes kind of economically effective to do so. So I think that's kind of the biggest headline on, say, the regulatory framework going forward. I think your question was around the premium we achieved on our vessels due to the having the modern ships, was that correct?
但對於蘇伊士型油輪、阿芙拉型油輪和 LR2 型油輪來說,這將會產生影響。在那裡,我們確實相信擁有高效的船舶有很大幫助。另外,我認為圍繞替代燃料的討論將變得越來越重要。現在,您實際上並不願意在燃料混合物中使用部分生物燃料,基本上是因為它的成本更高。但顯然,如果你把它放在購買碳信用額的對立面,那麼這樣做在經濟上就會變得有效。所以我認為這是未來監管框架的最大頭條新聞。我認為您的問題是由於擁有現代化船舶而使我們的船舶獲得了溢價,對嗎?
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Yes. In particular, I was curious if interest rates have an effect because on a shorter vessel, it's less costly to hold a couple of hundred million dollars' worth of oil, and then also the insurance rates, how that would have affected because of your shorter time frame.
是的。特別是,我很好奇利率是否會產生影響,因為在較短的船上,持有價值幾億美元的石油的成本較低,然後還有保險費率,這會如何影響,因為你的較短的船隻大體時間。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Okay. So that's more like the trading side of it. So if kind of our charters are being limited by the high interest rates because they are the ones who own the cargo, and they're the ones who we basically have to then finance themselves from A to B. We haven't really seen that having an impact kind of in the spot market, to be quite honest.
好的。所以這更像是交易方面的事情。因此,如果我們的包機受到高利率的限制,因為他們是貨物的擁有者,而他們是我們基本上必須從A地到B地為自己融資的人。我們還沒有真正看到這一點老實說,這對現貨市場產生了一定的影響。
I think it's more a discussion for had we been in the carrier market, meaning that it was going to be stored on ships. It would have had a huge effect. The difference between having 0.5 interest per day and the 7% interest per day has a huge impact on the economics of storing oil. But I think in general, kind of the financing cost has affected the world in general willingness to keep inventory. And I think that is probably partly why we see inventory levels fairly low across the globe.
我認為這更多的是關於我們是否處於運營商市場的討論,這意味著它將存儲在船上。這將會產生巨大的影響。每天0.5%的利息和每天7%的利息之間的差異對儲存石油的經濟性有巨大的影響。但我認為總的來說,融資成本已經影響了世界各地保留庫存的意願。我認為這可能是我們看到全球庫存水平相當低的部分原因。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Okay. One final comment. What percentage of your business is European that would be affected by that regulatory side change?
好的。最後一點評論。您的歐洲業務中有多少比例會受到監管方面變化的影響?
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
It varies. So it's -- and it also varies a lot amongst between asset classes. But I think our kind of the headline number would be 10% to 15% of our voyage days would be affected by the [EUV] test.
它有所不同。所以,不同資產類別之間的差異也很大。但我認為我們的標題數字是 10% 到 15% 的航行天數將受到 [EUV] 測試的影響。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
And I congratulate you both for running the most efficient best tanker fleet in the world.
我祝賀你們運營著世界上最高效的最佳油輪船隊。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Dear speakers, there are no further questions. And I would now like to hand the conference over to Lars Barstad for any closing remarks.
尊敬的發言者,沒有其他問題了。現在我想將會議交給拉爾斯·巴斯塔德(Lars Barstad)發表閉幕詞。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Thank you very much, and thank you so much for listening in. We are -- the markets are a little bit kind of in the doldrums right now, but I'm hearing bottoming kind of from various sides of the marketplace. Over the next few weeks, we're going to hopefully start to enter the winter season, and we're looking forward to see what comes. Thank you.
非常感謝你們,也非常感謝你們的收聽。我們——市場現在有點低迷,但我聽到市場各個方面都在觸底。在接下來的幾周里,我們將有望開始進入冬季,我們期待看到接下來會發生什麼。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.
我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們現在可以斷開連接了。祝你今天過得愉快。
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Lars H. Barstad - CEO of Frontline Management AS
Thank you.
謝謝。