Frontline Plc (FRO) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome come to the Quarter 2 2017 Frontline Ltd. Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Robert Macleod. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you very much. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you very much for dialing in. This is Frontline's earnings call for the second quarter of 2017.

I will start the call by briefly going through the highlights of the quarter and subsequent events. Following that, Inger will run us through the financials and we'll then look at Q2 earnings and I will guide you on our Q3 earnings. We will then move on to the current market conditions, the crude tanker order book and discuss the composition of the current operating fleet. The call will be concluded by taking your questions.

Let's get started and look at the company highlights. Our earnings in the quarter were significantly reduced from the first quarter. We recorded a loss of $14.2 million or $0.08 per share adjusted for noncash items. We had high dry-docking expenses in the quarter and we also terminated 2 long-term charters. Our results were obviously driven by significantly lower spot earnings versus Q1. I will come back to this in more detail.

We ordered 2 VLCCs from Hyundai Heavy Industries. Financing has been secured for these vessels. Frontline's newbuilding program remains fully financed. We took delivery of 5 vessels during the second quarter and have already taken delivery of the 2 newbuildings we have scheduled for delivery in Q3. Our order book today stands at 7 vessels: 5 VLCCs and 2 LR2s. We have so far this year terminated 5 long-term charters. These vessels are all expected to seize trading as conventional tankers.

We will continue to take proactive steps to increase the earnings potential of our fleet through the ongoing renewal and by pursuing opportunities in the resale and newbuilding markets.

Inger, please take us through the financials in more detail.

Thanks, Robert, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I would like -- now like you to move to Slide 2, Financial Highlights.

Frontline achieved total operating revenues, net of voyage expenses, of $90 million in the second quarter and reported a loss of $19 million equivalent to $0.11 per share. The loss was primarily due to $7.8 million in drydocking expenses during the quarter and a $12.2 million loss on termination of 2 long-term charters.

In the second quarter, we recorded certain noncash items. These noncash items consisted of a loss on the termination of these long-term charters of Front Scilla and Front Brabant, net of termination payments due of $2.1 million and a loss on derivatives of $3.1 million. After adjusting for these noncash items, we show adjusted earnings EBITDA of $37 million and adjusted net loss from operation of $14 million in the second quarter, equivalent to $0.08 per share.

The company generated net income attributable to the company of $7.6 million or $0.04 per share for the 6 months ended June 30, 2017. The net income attributable to the company and adjusted for certain noncash items was $13.6 million or $0.08 per share for the 6 months period.

Moving then to Slide 3, Income Statement. (inaudible) net loss adjusted for certain noncash items in the second quarter of $14 million against a net income of $28 million in the first quarter. The decrease in result from operation in the second quarter of $42 million is mainly due to decrease in result on time charter basis of $32 million due to the decrease in time charter rates in the second quarter compared to the first quarter; increase in lease termination payment of $10.1 million; increase in contingent rental income by $4.9 million. In the first quarter, we included contingent rental income of $3.8 million and the second quarter income of $8.7 million. The contingent rental income in the second quarter is due to the fact that the actual profit share to Ship Finance was 0 and then $8.7 million less than the amount accrued in the lease obligations payable when the leases were recorded at fair value at the time of the merger of Frontline with Frontline 2012.

Also, we had an increase in running expenses of $6.9 million, primarily due to the drydocking of 5 vessels and delivery of 5 new vessels in the second quarter.

Also, we had a decrease in charter hire expense of $4.8 million due to the effect of the delivery of vessels on time charter, and we had an increase in other expenses of $2.9 million.

Moving then to Slide 4, Balance Sheet. Changes to the balance sheet, end June 30 from end March 31, our total increase in balance sheet value of approximately $71 million. The changes in assets mainly relate to a decrease in marketable securities with $18 million due to the sale of DHT shares in the second quarter; a decrease in newbuildings with $117 million; an increase in vessels by $274 million due to delivery of 5 vessels in the quarter, offset by $18.3 million of depreciation; a decrease in vessel on the capital lease of $60 million due to termination of 2 leases and depreciation; and a decrease in other long-term assets by $3 million.

Total liabilities are up with $120 million, which mainly relates to other current liabilities decreased by $38 million due to the accrual for 2 newbuilding installments on 2 ordered newbuildings in the first quarter, drawdown loans of $230 million, ordinary loan repayments of $19.5 million and a reduction in obligations on the capital lease with $54 million due to termination of leases on 2 vessels and ordinary repayments.

Equity has decreased by $49 million, mainly due to payment of $25.5 million in dividends and losses in the quarter.

Moving then to Slide 5, Cash Breakeven Rates and OpEx. We estimate average cash cost breakeven rates for the remainder of 2017 of approximately $21,600 per day for the VLCCs, $17,500 per day for Suezmax tankers and $15,700 per day for LR2 tankers. These rates are the all-in daily rates that our owned and leased vessels must earn to cover budgeted operating costs and dry docks, estimated interest expenses, bareboat hires, installments on loans and G&A expenses.

While we have competitive running expenses and admin expenses, the low cash breakeven rates are, to a large extent, explained by the long debt amortization profile and low interest costs on new and existing debt. Every $1,000 per day lower cash breakeven rates means approximately $20 million extra net income per year or $0.12 per share, which shows the high importance of maintaining the low cash breakeven rates.

The OpEx per day in the second quarter was $13,100 for VLCCs, $7,300 for Suezmax tankers and $7,000 for LR2 tankers. The high VLCC OpEx per day this quarter is due to the $7.8 million in drydocking expense during the quarter for 5 VLCCs.

In the third quarter, no vessels are scheduled for dry dock.

With this, I leave the word to Robert again.

Thank you very much, Inger. Let's turn to Slide 6, please, and we'll have a look at the Q2 performance. The quarter generated relatively poor spot market returns, which was not unexpected given market conditions. In the VLCC segment, the earnings spread between modern and ships over 15 years was evident with a spread of more than $5,000 a day, and the spread has widened further on the Q3 days booked so far.

In the Suezmax segments, we operate only modern ships after having gone through a complete 3-fleet renewal, the last actions through disposing of our '97 and '98 built ships in Q2 and early Q3.

In the aframax segment, we also have a fleet of modern vessels only, our oldest owned ship being built in 2014. Renewing the VLCC fleet remains Frontline's focus.

The combined spot and time charter earnings for the quarter were $23,800 on VLCCs, $16,400 on Suezmaxes and $18,100 on our LR2s. For Q3, we have locked in 62% of our VLCC trading days at $16,800. Looking at our modern lease only, the number is around $20,000.

On the Suezmaxes, we have fixed 63% of our trading days at $17,500. On the LR2s, the number is about $15,700 and 77% is covered.

Let's move to the current market, please, on Slide 7. The growth in crude tank and ton mile demand suggests that the current tanker market is not suffering from weak demand growth. The demand growth equates to around 500 million barrels of oil per year, 1 VLCC transports around 10 million barrels a year. It seems clear that the fleet supply growth that has occurred over the last 18 months is the cause of the weak market. The market was resilient all the way through to Q1 this year, but we are now at spot levels last seen 3 years ago.

The global oil market is balancing as global inventories decline. The current pain should be a gain for the tank industry further out.

Demand for crude oil remains robust and import volumes into Asia, especially India and China, continues to grow. The Middle Eastern exports are expected to increase as local demand slows and the Northern Hemisphere prepares for winter. A seasonal improvement as we approach the last quarter of 2017 is expected.

Please now move to Slide 8, and we'll have a look at the tanker order book. Newbuilding deliveries accelerated in 2016. 47 VLCCs and 26 Suezmaxes were delivered, and we have had about 35 vessels delivered in each segments so far this year. We expect vessel scrapping to pick up as we progress through 2017. So far this year, only 7 VLCCs and 8 Suezmaxes have been scrapped.

The combination of a poor spot market and a 50% year-on-year increase in scrap values seems to us to be the perfect catalyst for scrapping. Combined with oil demand, scrapping is definitely a main factor, and it will determine the development of the tanker markets.

A lot of focus has been put on orders placed earlier this year for ships delivering in 2018 and 2019, but it is scrapping that will determine the longer-term outlook for tankers. We believe it will outnumber new deliveries. It also looks likely to us that many options will not be declared. We therefore believe that the market will begin to tighten in 2018 as vessels are retired from the global fleet and oil demand continues to grow.

Let's move to Slide 9 and look at how the current fleet is dissected. Despite current market weakness, I continue to believe that the market will begin to improve in 2018 as deliveries of new vessels slows and, as I've said, the scrapping picks up and vessels are retired. There are about 91 VLCCs built in 2000 or earlier that continue to operate. This is roughly equal to the current VLCC order book of 99 vessels. At some point in time, these older vessels will permanently exit.

Current market conditions, coupled with rapidly approaching environmental regulations, should serve as a powerful catalyst for many owners. Combine this with a still difficult financing environment for many owners, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where the market does not begin to tighten.

Let's move to the last slide, please, the summary. Over the last several quarters, we have divested of older less economical VLCCs and Suezmax tankers and have remained focused on acquiring high-quality modern VLCCs at attractive prices. In the process, we have lowered the average age of our fleet from just over 8 years to below 6 years.

The next several quarters may present challenges as vessels -- vessel supply continues to increase, but we will be very well positioned when the market recovers.

We expect the near-term pressure on crude tanker rates to continue, but believe that the market will ultimately return to balance, likely in 2018, as I just mentioned.

Over the long term, we expect our strategy to result in significant cash flow, which we intend to return to our shareholders as Frontline has done throughout its history.

With that, I would like to turn over for questions, please.

(Operator Instructions) And now we'll take our first question from Jon Chappell from Evercore.

Robert, I wanted to ask you about one of the updates in the press release and vis-à-vis your expansion plans. So you decided not to exercise the option on the 2 VLCC newbuildings, those options have lapsed. Is that a call on kind of asset prices going forward? Do you think that this market weakness will continue to pressure asset values and you have better opportunities in the secondhand market?

Yes, that is -- yes, you just answered the question. That is we think the -- in the secondhand market, there will be some opportunities coming up, and with the weakness here in the market, that will get people -- well get these opportunities will come sooner rather than later. So rather than waiting, and we've placed the orders we have and we decided not to take the options.

Okay. And then as it relates to being able to finance acquisitions, obviously, you just announced the new credit facilities in the second quarter and you seem like you're pretty fully funded for the newbuilding program and even a little bit of excess. I noticed also you drew $50 million from the Hemen loan, which -- can you just explain that? It didn't necessarily seem necessary given your cash outflows and your cash balance, and that's pretty expensive debt. What was the reason for the drawdown in that and will that be paid back promptly with the new credit facilities?

Yes. The reason out of it, we intend, in a way, to always -- has always been intended that we will use this facility for -- from time to time when we have a cash need, and that we had during this quarter. So that is the reason why we did that.

Okay. But kind of post quarter and the new credit facilities, do you have the liquidity now to prepay that to lower the cost of debt?

No, we are not going to -- we have not immediate plans repay that. But we will, of course, repay it when we have the cash position to do that.

Okay. Final thing, it seems like the shares for ships has not been successful thus far as far as opportunities earlier this year. And now, with the entire group under pressure, maybe shares for ships isn't the ideal situation for sellers either. What's your liquidity firepower? Is it strictly the remaining $225 million on the Hemen facility? Or do you have other liquidity above and beyond that, that you would use to acquire secondhand ships?

That is what is in place at the moment, but we have the support of our main shareholder, John Fredriksen. He is in a very good position in terms of cash, and he is a very strong supporter of Frontline and I have absolutely no doubt that he will continue to be so.

Our next question today comes from Gregory Lewis from Credit Suisse.

This is actually Joe Nelson on for Greg today. Just a couple for me, Robert. You kind of walked through some of the age of the fleet and you did mention we're seeing some -- or we will see some upcoming environmental regulations. I'm just kind of curious, what's your take on how the industry is going to manage some of these capital outlays, which could be substantial? And then second part of that is how do you view Frontline -- how is Frontline positioned for some of these upcoming changes?

In terms of 2020 with scrubbers, that's something we're going through now, and we have given us -- we will give ourselves time here to conclude. But from what we're seeing, it's pointed towards that the scrubbers will be required, but the prices are coming down. So it's something that we, not only in Frontline, but as a group, we are watching this very closely and will plan accordingly.

Okay. And then maybe just kind of corollary to that, are any of these environmental requirements kind of making their way into financing transactions? If you're an owner, maybe saying meaning to come up on a refinancing facility or are you seeing banks and other lenders making sure, dotting the Is and making requirements part of their willingness to, say, lend?

We have not experienced that.

(Operator Instructions) And our next question today comes from Fotis Giannakoulis from Morgan Stanley.

I want to ask you about how do you see the volume that is coming out of the Middle East. Have you seen any notable changes in flows? Is it this weakness in the market just a result of additional vessel supply or the result of decline in flows?

No. I think, looking at the Middle East, I'd say those [are just the] cuts, but there's also the summer season where local demand is at its peak. So combine that, then we have our present situation. So -- and this is one reason why we expect to see the market to pick up season here is that the exports will increase due to less local demand.

I want to ask you about your long-term outlook. Obviously, this is a very challenging market and you have decided not to exercise these options. But I'm wondering if you expect asset values to come further down, they are already at historical low levels and if you are holding your acquisition power for future acquisitions at more attractive prices.

No. I think now, with the development of the market, I think in terms of the values, I don't think they're going to come much down. I think it's now all about the overall balance of the tanker fleet. So the way I view the fleet now in terms of, as I said earlier, oil demand is strong. Volumes are increasing. So that part -- and demand, looks to me, to stay strong, with Asia driving it. So to me, it's all down to how the fleet or the tanker fleet, the numbers develop. And looking at scrapping, we've had very little last few years, but I cannot see any other scenario that we will have the scrapping pick up and pick up a lot. If you go back a year, then a 17-year-old ship we're scrapping was worth, I'd say, about $12 million, plus/minus $1 million and then the value of the ship in the secondhand market was in the low $20 millions. So the margin on a 17-year-old ship between scrap value and secondhand value was in the region of $10 million. That has gone down to anywhere between 0 and $3 million. Let's call it $2 million. You combine that gap coming in like it has and you combine that with the weak spot market, then I think you've got the perfect catalyst for scrapping to pick up. And I think the pain we're going through now is what will rebalance the fleet. And we do need scrapping, we need the old ships to disappear for the rebalance. Otherwise, we'll be slumming around in the lower earnings. Obviously, we'll still be out of volatility. we're not going to stay at the levels we are now, but it will be -- it will not be anywhere close to the average as we had through '15 and '16.

Obviously, scrapping is one positive catalyst, positive driver for the market, and you have done your fair amount of -- fair share into that. But I want to ask about the demand picture. You mentioned about Asian demand keeps growing. How important is Asian demand and the increase in OPEC production that will drive versus the trading activity and the fact that probably the low oil prices, they deter a number of traders from buying crude and moving it around, and that has also some impact on demand for shipping.

Yes. I think, on the demand side, the, as you say, Asia is the driver. I don't know how the percentage of certain regions in front of me here. So -- but on overall, we're talking about 1.3 million barrels this year, which obviously is very helpful. But when it comes to trading, on the crude, trading, obviously is an important factor, but it's more important on the product side. So we obviously have our fleet of modern LR2s and increased trading is really what you want to kick off of the earnings there. So that's a guess, but yes, you get the volatility back and you get more volumes trading, that is obviously a positive.

One last for me. I want to ask about how is the competitive landscape. Earlier this year, you made an effort to expand, but didn't find a positive response. But I'm wondering if there are fleets out there, either private equity, controlled or private owners that they might be willing to sell or they might be forced to sell. I'm just trying to understand what is the competition out there.

There's not really any big changes in terms of the banks. We're not seeing big opportunity or any significant opportunities. But as I say, I think that this will come and probably sooner rather than later if the market, spot market, stays as weak as it is now. Thank you, Fotis. I look forward to -- this is the first time on my watch that you don't start with congratulating us with a strong quarter, so I'm looking forward to having that comment again, hopefully soon.

I'll hold it for the next quarter.

(Operator Instructions) We have another question from Magnus Fyhr from Seaport Global.

Just a question on the booked -- the fixtures for the third quarter. It looks like the LR2s and the Suezmaxes were a little bit higher than expected. Can you give some color on that, why those numbers were higher?

They are higher. We have included the time charters in that rate, so the time charters are just below the box where those numbers are, then they specify what the -- what time charters were included. When it comes to the Vs, there's virtually no time -- that is the spot number you're seeing. So yes, that's where we are.

Okay, great. And do you see anything -- I mean, it's early to tell now about what's going on in Houston. We're seeing it firsthand here, but a lot of dislocation of your refinery, outages. Are you seeing any developments here on the LR2s and maybe bringing products into Houston?

No, not at this stage. And when it comes to -- I don't think -- we're right in the middle of a disaster, so I wouldn't comment too much on it, to be honest.

Thank you very much. We have no further questions at this time, so I'd like to turn back over to you for any closing remarks.

Thank you. I would like to thank everyone at Frontline for their great efforts, and thank you all for calling in to this presentation. All the best.

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation today. You may now disconnect.