(FORM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to FormFactor's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call are Chief Executive Officer, Mike Slessor; and Chief Financial Officer, Shai Shahar. Before we begin, Stan Finkelstein, the company's Vice President of Investor Relations, will remind you of some important information.

謝謝大家，歡迎大家參加 FormFactor 的 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議是首席執行官 Mike Slessor；和首席財務官，Shai Shahar。在我們開始之前，公司投資者關係副總裁 Stan Finkelstein 將提醒您一些重要信息。

Thank you. Today, the company will be discussing GAAP P&L results and some important non-GAAP results intended to supplement your understanding of the company's financials. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and other financial information are available in the press release issued today by the company and on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝你。今天，公司將討論 GAAP 損益結果和一些重要的非 GAAP 結果，旨在補充您對公司財務狀況的理解。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 措施的對賬以及其他財務信息可在公司今天發布的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者關係部分獲得。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Examples of such forward-looking statements includes also with respect to the projections of financial and business performance; future macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; the benefits of acquisitions and investments in capacity and in new technologies; the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; anticipated industry trends; the disruptions in our supply chain; the impact of regulatory changes; the anticipated demand for products; our ability to develop, produce and sell products; and the assumptions upon which such statements are based.

今天的討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述的示例還包括對財務和業務業績的預測；未來的宏觀經濟和地緣政治狀況；在產能和新技術方面進行收購和投資的好處； COVID-19 大流行的影響；預期的行業趨勢；我們的供應鏈中斷；監管變化的影響；對產品的預期需求；我們開發、生產和銷售產品的能力；以及這些陳述所依據的假設。

These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed during this call. Information on risk factors and uncertainties is contained in our most recent filing on Form 10-K with the SEC for fiscal year ended 2021 and in our other SEC filings, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov and in our press release issued today. Forward-looking statements are made as of today, July 27, 2022, and we assume no obligation to update them.

這些陳述受到已知和未知風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中表達的結果大不相同。有關風險因素和不確定性的信息包含在我們最近向 SEC 提交的截至 2021 財年的 10-K 表格文件中以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件中，這些文件可在 SEC 網站 www.sec.gov 和我們的媒體上查閱今天發布的版本。前瞻性陳述自 2022 年 7 月 27 日起作出，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

With that, we will now turn the call over to FormFactor's CEO, Mike Slessor.

有了這個，我們現在將把電話轉給 FormFactor 的首席執行官 Mike Slessor。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. FormFactor, again, posted strong results in the second quarter, delivering the second highest quarterly revenue in company history and again exceeding the non-GAAP gross margin of our target financial model.

謝謝大家，今天加入我們。 FormFactor 再次在第二季度公佈了強勁的業績，實現了公司歷史上第二高的季度收入，並再次超過了我們目標財務模型的非公認會計準則毛利率。

Together with good operating expense control in the current inflationary environment, this produced earnings per share at the high end of our outlook range. The second quarter financial results and overall themes were similar to the first quarter's as major customers continued to release and ramp new designs to meet demand for their products, driving strong results in our probe card business in both Foundry & Logic and DRAM.

再加上當前通脹環境下良好的運營費用控制，這使得每股收益處於我們展望範圍的高端。第二季度的財務業績和總體主題與第一季度相似，因為主要客戶繼續發布和推出新設計以滿足對其產品的需求，推動我們在 Foundry & Logic 和 DRAM 的探針卡業務取得強勁業績。

Customers also invested in their technology road maps with development of innovations like gate-all-around transistors, advanced packaging, silicon photonics and quantum computing, driving solid results in our systems business.

客戶還投資於他們的技術路線圖，開發了諸如全柵晶體管、先進封裝、矽光子學和量子計算等創新技術，從而推動了我們系統業務的穩健成果。

During the second quarter, we made a small but important acquisition to augment our capabilities as a key supplier in the emerging quantum computing market, buying the dilution refrigerator product line of JanisULT. Dilution refrigerators are a key enabler for the operation of quantum computers being capable of tooling qubits to the ultra-low sub-10 millikelvin temperatures required for operation of superconducting quantum computers. This acquisition makes FormFactor the largest commercial dilution refrigerator supplier in the United States, strengthening and expanding our position with key customers as the leading supplier of not just test-and-measurement products but also now enabling infrastructure for quantum computing.

在第二季度，我們進行了一項小而重要的收購，以增強我們作為新興量子計算市場主要供應商的能力，收購了 JanisULT 的稀釋冰箱產品線。稀釋製冷機是量子計算機運行的關鍵推動因素，能夠將量子比特加工到超導量子計算機運行所需的超低 10 毫開爾文以下溫度。此次收購使 FormFactor 成為美國最大的商用稀釋製冷機供應商，鞏固並擴大了我們在主要客戶中的地位，不僅是測試和測量產品的領先供應商，而且現在還支持量子計算的基礎設施。

Turning now to our third quarter outlook. Our sequentially weaker outlook is due primarily to reduced demand for Foundry & Logic probe cards from several major customers in both mobile and compute applications. As these customers adapt to the changing conditions in their end markets, driven by global macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation, they're changing their short-term wafer start-and-design release road maps by delaying selected new design releases and, in some cases, reducing their volume ramp plans for specific chip designs already in production.

現在轉向我們的第三季度展望。我們連續走弱的前景主要是由於移動和計算應用領域的幾個主要客戶對 Foundry & Logic 探針卡的需求減少。隨著這些客戶在全球宏觀經濟不確定性和通貨膨脹的推動下適應終端市場不斷變化的條件，他們正在通過推遲選定的新設計發布來改變他們的短期晶圓啟動和設計發布路線圖，在某些情況下，減少他們已經在生產中的特定芯片設計的量產計劃。

As a reminder, probe cards are a consumable specific to each new chip design, and so changes to production volumes of individual chip designs also change the number of probe cards required to manufacture that specific design. As Shai will discuss in detail, this reduction in anticipated Foundry & Logic demand results in a significant reduction in forecasted third quarter gross margins and earnings.

提醒一下，探針卡是特定於每個新芯片設計的消耗品，因此單個芯片設計產量的變化也會改變製造該特定設計所需的探針卡數量。正如 Shai 將詳細討論的那樣，預期 Foundry & Logic 需求的減少導致預測的第三季度毛利率和收益顯著下降。

We view this reduction in Foundry & Logic probe card demand as a short-term response to our customers -- by our customers to changing conditions in their end markets and not a structural change in our business. Lead times for probe cards remain less than a quarter. And although the past several years have been characterized by universally robust and growing demand across all probe card segments and end markets, changes like these are not uncommon in times of rapidly changing industry conditions as customers adapt their production plans to match short-term fluctuations in their product-specific demand profile.

我們認為 Foundry & Logic 探針卡需求的減少是對我們客戶的短期反應——我們的客戶對其終端市場不斷變化的條件作出反應，而不是我們業務的結構性變化。探針卡的交貨時間仍然不到四分之一。儘管過去幾年的特點是所有探針卡細分市場和終端市場的需求普遍強勁且不斷增長，但隨著客戶調整生產計劃以適應短期波動，在行業條件迅速變化的時代，此類變化並不少見他們特定產品的需求概況。

We continue to view Foundry & Logic as an exciting long-term growth driver for FormFactor. Customers are investing in both leading-edge capacity as evident from continued wafer fab equipment spending; and early-stage innovative advanced packaging architectures like EMIB, Foveros and 3D fabric. As we've noted in the past, these chiplet were tile-based integration schemes drive both higher test intensity, which expands the number of probe cards required per wafer out; and test complexity, which raises the performance requirements for the probe card.

我們繼續將 Foundry & Logic 視為 FormFactor 令人興奮的長期增長動力。客戶正在投資於領先的產能，這從持續的晶圓廠設備支出中可以看出；以及早期創新的先進封裝架構，如 EMIB、Foveros 和 3D 織物。正如我們過去所指出的，這些小芯片是基於 tile 的集成方案，可驅動更高的測試強度，從而擴大每個晶片所需的探針卡數量；和測試複雜度，對探針卡的性能提出了更高的要求。

Advanced probe card architectures like FormFactor's MEMS technology are essential to meet these challenging technical requirements at a compelling cost of ownership with a short delivery lead time needed to support our customers' rapid and dynamic production ramps. For these reasons, despite the anticipated third quarter pause in the steady and gradual progress we've made towards our target financial model, we're continuing our planned capital investments and remain committed to our target financial model and the strategy that underpins it.

先進的探針卡架構（如 FormFactor 的 MEMS 技術）對於滿足這些具有挑戰性的技術要求至關重要，其擁有成本極低，交付週期短，可支持我們客戶的快速和動態生產增長。出於這些原因，儘管我們在實現目標財務模型方面取得的穩步和漸進進展預計在第三季度暫停，但我們仍在繼續我們計劃的資本投資，並繼續致力於我們的目標財務模型和支撐它的戰略。

The main tenet of this strategy is our expanding position as a diversified supplier to the broader semiconductor and electronics industry with defensible leadership position serving multiple consumables and equipment market segments. Over the past few years, while each of these segments has delivered robust demand and growth, we've been consistent in our belief that our markets are cyclical with each market unlikely to deliver robust growth every quarter.

這一戰略的主要宗旨是我們作為更廣泛的半導體和電子行業的多元化供應商的地位不斷擴大，在服務多個耗材和設備市場領域具有穩固的領導地位。在過去幾年中，雖然這些細分市場中的每一個都帶來了強勁的需求和增長，但我們始終堅信我們的市場是周期性的，每個市場都不太可能每季度都實現強勁增長。

Operating in multiple segments with a diversified set of demand drivers allows us to better amortize our fixed cost structure, including manufacturing overhead, facilities and global customer support infrastructure. This segment's ban also provides the broadest set of technology and manufacturing capabilities in our served markets, offering significant value to our customers and competitive advantage for FormFactor.

在具有多元化需求驅動因素的多個細分市場中運營，使我們能夠更好地攤銷我們的固定成本結構，包括製造費用、設施和全球客戶支持基礎設施。該細分市場的禁令還提供了我們所服務市場中最廣泛的技術和製造能力，為我們的客戶提供了重要價值，並為 FormFactor 提供了競爭優勢。

Our third quarter outlook offers a proof point to the value of serving multiple market segments as we anticipate that the expected reduction in Foundry & Logic demand will be partially offset by growth in the Systems segment with steady demand for DRAM and flash probe cards. We remain committed to gross margin improvement in all of our product lines so that this diversification strategy is fully effective in mitigating the impact of these product mix shifts on both revenue and profitability.

我們的第三季度展望證明了服務多個細分市場的價值，因為我們預計 Foundry & Logic 需求的預期減少將被系統細分市場的增長部分抵消，而係統細分市場對 DRAM 和閃存探針卡的需求穩定。我們仍然致力於提高所有產品線的毛利率，以便這種多元化戰略能夠充分有效地減輕這些產品組合轉變對收入和盈利能力的影響。

I'd like to close by affirming that we remain confident in the long-term growth prospects for the industry overall driven by the fundamental trends of semiconductor content growth and advanced packaging. These are trends where FormFactor is well positioned as an industry and technology leader, and we're confident that our resilience and agility will drive continued growth and share gains as FormFactor progresses towards our target model that delivers $2 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $850 million of revenue and beyond.

最後，我要確認，在半導體含量增長和先進封裝的基本趨勢驅動下，我們對整個行業的長期增長前景仍然充滿信心。這些是 FormFactor 處於行業和技術領導者地位的趨勢，我們相信，隨著 FormFactor 朝著我們的目標模型發展，我們的彈性和敏捷性將推動持續增長和分享收益，該目標模型在8.5億美元及以上的收入。

Shai, over to you.

夏，交給你了。

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon. As you saw in our press release, and as Mike mentioned, FormFactor, again, posted strong second quarter results, delivering the second highest quarterly revenues in company history with revenues and gross margin above the midpoint of our outlook ranges, EPS at the high end of the range and non-GAAP gross margin again exceeding our target financial model.

謝謝你，邁克，下午好。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，正如邁克所提到的，FormFactor 再次發布了強勁的第二季度業績，實現了公司歷史上第二高的季度收入，收入和毛利率高於我們展望範圍的中點，每股收益處於高端範圍和非公認會計準則毛利率再次超過我們的目標財務模型。

Second quarter revenues were $204 million, a 3.4% sequential increase from our first quarter revenues and an increase of 8.4% year-over-year. Probe card segment revenues were a record $167.7 million in the second quarter, an increase of $7.7 million or 4.8% from Q1. The increase was driven mainly by higher Foundry & Logic revenues. Systems segment revenues were $36 million in Q2, a decrease of $1 million or 2.7% from the first quarter.

第二季度收入為 2.04 億美元，比第一季度收入環比增長 3.4%，同比增長 8.4%。第二季度探針卡業務收入達到創紀錄的 1.677 億美元，比第一季度增加 770 萬美元或 4.8%。這一增長主要是由較高的 Foundry & Logic 收入推動的。第二季度系統部門收入為 3600 萬美元，比第一季度減少 100 萬美元或 2.7%。

Within the Probe Card segment, Q2 Foundry & Logic revenues were a record $122 million, a 7.3% increase from Q1, comprising 60% of total company revenues, slightly higher than the 58% in the first quarter. DRAM revenues were $37 million in Q2, $2 million or 7% higher than the first quarter and were 18% of total quarterly revenues as compared to 17% of revenues in the first quarter. Flash revenues of $8.5 million in Q2 were $3 million lower than in the first quarter and over 4% of total revenues in Q2, lower than the 6% in Q1.

在探針卡領域，第二季度 Foundry & Logic 收入達到創紀錄的 1.22 億美元，比第一季度增長 7.3%，占公司總收入的 60%，略高於第一季度的 58%。第二季度 DRAM 收入為 3700 萬美元，比第一季度高出 200 萬美元或 7%，佔季度總收入的 18%，而第一季度佔總收入的 17%。第二季度閃存收入為 850 萬美元，比第一季度低 300 萬美元，佔第二季度總收入的 4% 以上，低於第一季度的 6%。

GAAP gross margin for the second quarter was 46.3% of revenues as compared to 47.8% in Q1. Cost of revenues included $2.3 million of GAAP to non-GAAP reconciling items, which we outlined in our press release issued today and in the reconciliation table available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

第二季度的 GAAP 毛利率為收入的 46.3%，而第一季度為 47.8%。收入成本包括 230 萬美元的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節項目，我們在今天發布的新聞稿和我們網站投資者關係部分的調節表中對此進行了概述。

On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin for the second quarter was 47.4%, 160 basis points lower than the 49% non-GAAP gross margin in Q1 with lower gross margin in both our markets. Our probe card segment gross margin was 46.8% in the second quarter, a decrease of 150 basis points compared to 48.3% in Q1. The decrease is mainly due to a less favorable mix, higher manufacturing headcount and spending.

按非美國通用會計準則計算，第二季度的毛利率為 47.4%，比第一季度的 49% 的非美國通用會計準則毛利率低 160 個基點，我們兩個市場的毛利率都較低。第二季度我們的探針卡部門毛利率為 46.8%，與第一季度的 48.3% 相比下降了 150 個基點。下降主要是由於不太有利的組合、較高的製造人數和支出。

Our Q2 Systems segment gross margin was 50.5%, 170 basis points lower than the 52.2% gross margin in the first quarter. The decrease is due to lower revenue and a less favorable product mix. Our GAAP operating expenses were $62 million for the second quarter, $2 million higher than in the first quarter. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the second quarter were $54.5 million or 26.7% of revenues, as compared with $51.9 million or 26.3% of revenues in Q1.

我們的第二季度系統部門毛利率為 50.5%，比第一季度 52.2% 的毛利率低 170 個基點。減少的原因是收入減少和產品組合不太有利。我們第二季度的 GAAP 運營費用為 6200 萬美元，比第一季度高出 200 萬美元。第二季度非美國通用會計準則運營費用為 5450 萬美元，佔收入的 26.7%，而第一季度為 5190 萬美元，佔收入的 26.3%。

The $2.6 million increase relates mainly to an annual salary increase, higher headcount and higher R&D project spend. Company noncash expenses for the second quarter included $6.4 million for stock-based compensation, $1.1 million lower than in the first quarter; $2.7 million for the amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, $0.3 million higher than in the first quarter; and depreciation of $7.2 million, $0.2 million higher than in the first quarter.

260 萬美元的增長主要與年薪增長、員工人數增加和研發項目支出增加有關。第二季度公司非現金支出包括 640 萬美元的股票薪酬，比第一季度減少 110 萬美元；與收購相關的無形資產攤銷 270 萬美元，比第一季度增加 30 萬美元；折舊 720 萬美元，比第一季度高 20 萬美元。

GAAP operating income for Q2 was $32.6 million as compared with a record $34.2 million in Q1. Non-GAAP operating income for the second quarter was $42.3 million, lower than the last quarter's record by $2.5 million. GAAP net income for the second quarter was $30 million or $0.38 per fully diluted share, same as in the previous quarter.

第二季度的 GAAP 營業收入為 3260 萬美元，而第一季度則為創紀錄的 3420 萬美元。第二季度非美國通用會計準則營業收入為 4230 萬美元，比上一季度的記錄低 250 萬美元。第二季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 3000 萬美元或每股完全稀釋後的每股 0.38 美元，與上一季度相同。

The non-GAAP effective tax rate for the second quarter was 14.4%, 60 basis points higher than the 13.8% in Q1 and slightly below our estimated non-GAAP annual effective tax rate of 15% to 20%. As a reminder, during the first quarter, the required capitalization of R&D expenses changed, resulting in higher foreign-derived intangible income benefits also known as FDII and vastly lower effective tax rate. We expect to be on the lower end of this 15% to 20% range for the remainder of the year. As previously communicated, our annual cash tax rate is expected to remain around mid- to high single digits of non-GAAP pretax income until we fully utilize our remaining U.S.-based R&D credit. Second quarter non-GAAP net income was $36.8 million or $0.46 per fully diluted share, second to the record set in the first quarter of $38.7 million or $0.49 per fully diluted share.

第二季度非美國通用會計準則有效稅率為 14.4%，比第一季度的 13.8% 高 60 個基點，略低於我們估計的非美國通用會計準則年度有效稅率 15% 至 20%。提醒一下，在第一季度，研發費用的資本化要求發生了變化，導致更高的外國無形收入收益（也稱為 FDII）和大大降低的有效稅率。我們預計今年剩餘時間將處於 15% 至 20% 範圍的低端。如前所述，在我們充分利用剩餘的美國研發信貸之前，我們的年度現金稅率預計將保持在非 GAAP 稅前收入的中高個位數左右。第二季度非 GAAP 淨收入為 3680 萬美元或每股完全稀釋後的每股 0.46 美元，僅次於第一季度創下的 3870 萬美元或每股完全稀釋後的每股 0.49 美元的記錄。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. We generated $28.3 million of free cash flow in the second quarter, similar to the record $28.7 million in Q1. Net cash provided by operations and capital expenditures were at a similar level to the previous quarter. Total cash and investments were $270 million at the end of the quarter. As of the end of the second quarter, we had 2 term loans remaining on our balance sheet, totaling $20 million.

轉向資產負債表和現金流。我們在第二季度產生了 2830 萬美元的自由現金流，與第一季度創紀錄的 2870 萬美元相似。運營和資本支出提供的淨現金與上一季度相似。截至本季度末，現金和投資總額為 2.7 億美元。截至第二季度末，我們的資產負債表上還有 2 筆定期貸款，總計 2000 萬美元。

We invested $14.5 million in capital expenditures during the second quarter compared to $15.6 million in Q1. As Mike mentioned, we are executing on our capacity expansion and continue to expect full year CapEx to be between $60 million and $80 million. As a reminder, we expect CapEx to return to the 3.5% to 4% of revenues in our target financial model after we conclude this capacity expansion.

我們在第二季度投資了 1450 萬美元的資本支出，而第一季度為 1560 萬美元。正如邁克所說，我們正在擴大產能，並繼續預計全年資本支出將在 6000 萬美元至 8000 萬美元之間。提醒一下，在我們完成產能擴張後，我們預計資本支出將恢復到目標財務模型中收入的 3.5% 至 4%。

Regarding stock buyback. During the second quarter, we fully utilized our existing $50 million stock repurchase program, and our Board of Directors approved an additional 2-year $75 million program. We purchased 1.2 million shares under these 2 buyback programs during the second quarter for a total of $45 million, and this brings our repurchases under these 2 programs through the end of Q2 to 2.3 million shares. At quarter end, $46.6 million remained available for future repurchases.

關於股票回購。在第二季度，我們充分利用了現有的 5000 萬美元股票回購計劃，我們的董事會批准了一項額外的 2 年 7500 萬美元的計劃。我們在第二季度根據這兩個回購計劃購買了 120 萬股，總計 4500 萬美元，這使我們在這兩個計劃下的回購到第二季度末達到了 230 萬股。在季度末，仍有 4660 萬美元可供未來回購。

Turning to the third quarter non-GAAP outlook. As Mike mentioned, we expect decrease in Foundry & Logic revenues, partially offset by growth in the Systems segment with a steady demand for DRAM and flash probe card. These factors result in a Q3 revenue outlook of $183 million, plus or minus $6 million. Non-GAAP gross margin for the third quarter is expected to be 39%, plus or minus 150 basis points. At the midpoint of our outlook range, about 1/3 of the expected decrease in non-GAAP gross margin relates to a less favorable product mix, reflecting the expected decline in Foundry & Logic revenues as well as a less favorable mix in the other markets we serve. Another 1/3 of the expected decrease relates to the overall lower revenue levels and similar fixed costs, and the last third is attributable to higher manufacturing costs.

轉向第三季度非公認會計原則展望。正如 Mike 所提到的，我們預計 Foundry & Logic 收入將下降，部分被系統部門的增長以及對 DRAM 和閃存探針卡的穩定需求所抵消。這些因素導致第三季度收入前景為 1.83 億美元，上下浮動 600 萬美元。第三季度非美國通用會計準則毛利率預計為 39%，正負 150 個基點。在我們展望範圍的中點，非 GAAP 毛利率預期下降的約 1/3 與不太有利的產品組合有關，這反映了 Foundry & Logic 收入的預期下降以及其他市場的不利組合我們服務。另外 1/3 的預期下降與整體較低的收入水平和類似的固定成本有關，最後三分之一歸因於較高的製造成本。

At the midpoint of these outlook ranges, we expect operating expenses to be lower than Q2 by approximately $2 million to $3 million, mainly due to lower performance-based compensation and other employee-related benefit expenses, partially offset by the impact of new hires. Accordingly, non-GAAP earnings per fully diluted share for Q3 is expected to be $0.21, plus or minus $0.04. A reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP Q3 outlook is available on the Investor Relations section of our website and in the press release issued today.

在這些前景範圍的中點，我們預計運營費用將比第二季度低約 200 萬美元至 300 萬美元，這主要是由於基於績效的薪酬和其他與員工相關的福利費用較低，部分被新員工的影響所抵消。因此，第三季度非 GAAP 每股完全攤薄收益預計為 0.21 美元，正負 0.04 美元。我們網站的投資者關係部分和今天發布的新聞稿中提供了我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 第三季度展望的對賬。

With that, let's open the call for questions. Operator?

有了這個，讓我們打開問題的電話。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Craig Ellis.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Craig Ellis。

Appreciate all the color on the dynamics in the business team. Mike, I wanted to go back to some of your comments on what's happening in foundry logic as you look ahead to the third quarter, I think you identified compute and mobility issues were at play. Can you give us some sense of the degree to which this is a mobility issue or a compute issue? And as you work with your customers as they're managing product cycles, what's your sense for when we actually work through what we're seeing in the third quarter and potentially rebound back to those $200 million-plus revenue levels for the company?

欣賞業務團隊動態的所有色彩。邁克，當您展望第三季度時，我想回到您對代工邏輯中正在發生的事情的一些評論，我認為您發現計算和移動性問題正在發揮作用。您能否讓我們了解這在多大程度上是移動性問題或計算問題？當您與客戶一起管理產品週期時，當我們真正完成我們在第三季度看到的情況並可能反彈回公司超過 2 億美元的收入水平時，您有什麼感覺？

Yes. Thanks, Craig. As I said in the prepared remarks, we are seeing multiple sources of reduced sequential demand in Foundry & Logic probe cards coming from multiple customers in both mobile and compute, and there's a lot of different puts and takes in that. I would say the components of each are similar in nature, and the result of the customers changing their wafer start plans on specific designs as they adapt their product release road maps to their changing end market conditions. And since probe cards are specific to each design, lead times, as you well know, are well within a quarter, there's some short-term volatility there we're dealing with in our demand profile.

是的。謝謝，克雷格。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們看到來自移動和計算領域的多個客戶的 Foundry & Logic 探針卡連續需求減少的多個來源，並且有很多不同的投入和投入。我想說每個組件在本質上是相似的，這是客戶在調整其產品發布路線圖以適應不斷變化的終端市場條件時更改特定設計的晶圓啟動計劃的結果。而且由於探針卡特定於每種設計，因此眾所周知，交貨時間在四分之一以內，因此我們在需求概況中正在處理一些短期波動。

I do want to draw a parallel, I know it's a while ago, but back to the fourth quarter of 2019 where we saw exactly the same dynamic but in reverse. If you remember, we guided up inside the fourth quarter as Foundry & Logic customers, many of them similar Foundry & Logic customers we're seeing now, responded to stronger demand and drove our business up on these short lead times. So we have seen these dynamics have worked before. We remain excited about Foundry & Logic, as I said on the call. Advanced node WFE investments, advanced packaging, driving up test intensity and spending on probe cards, and I think still an exciting growth opportunity for FormFactor despite the short-term volatility we see here.

我確實想畫一個平行線，我知道那是不久前的事了，但回到 2019 年第四季度，我們看到了完全相同的動態，但相反。如果你還記得的話，我們在第四季度作為 Foundry & Logic 客戶（其中許多是我們現在看到的類似 Foundry & Logic 客戶）對更強勁的需求做出了回應，並在這些較短的交貨時間內推動了我們的業務增長。所以我們已經看到這些動態之前已經奏效了。正如我在電話會議上所說，我們仍然對 Foundry & Logic 感到興奮。先進節點 WFE 投資、先進封裝、提高測試強度和探針卡支出，我認為儘管我們在這裡看到短期波動，但 FormFactor 仍然是一個令人興奮的增長機會。

Got it. That's really helpful, Mike. So Shai, I'll ask a follow-up to you and then go back in the queue. So appreciate the gross margin color and the breakdown, 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 across mix volume and higher manufacturing costs. The question is this, at some point, and I suspect in the not-too-distant future, we're going to move through these transitions and be back to much higher volume and normalized mix. But how should we think about the higher manufacturing cost element that you talked about? When does that become a neutral or a tailwind to the business? Is there a revenue level that's needed? Or what should investors think about for that to become less of a headwind?

知道了。這真的很有幫助，邁克。所以Shai，我會問你一個後續問題，然後回到隊列中。因此，請欣賞毛利率顏色和細分，混合量的 1/3、1/3、1/3 和更高的製造成本。問題是，在某個時候，我懷疑在不久的將來，我們將經歷這些轉變，回到更高的音量和標準化的組合。但是，我們應該如何考慮您所說的更高的製造成本要素呢？這什麼時候會成為對業務的中立或順風？是否有需要的收入水平？或者投資者應該考慮什麼才能減少逆風？

Thanks, Craig. Yes. So most of these additional manufacturing expenses in Q3 actually relates to capitalized variances that we were capitalizing to our inventory as part of the Q1 and Q2 inventory build, and they're going to be amortized in Q3. So that big change, I don't expect it to be -- to happen again. There is some element of higher labor cost and higher cost of materials. We talked about it in previous calls as well. But these are built into the forecast and are built into our longer-term target model of 47% gross margin, which we are still committed to.

謝謝，克雷格。是的。因此，第三季度的大部分額外製造費用實際上與我們作為第一季度和第二季度庫存構建的一部分資本化庫存的資本化差異有關，它們將在第三季度攤銷。因此，我不希望它會再次發生這種巨大的變化。存在較高的勞動力成本和較高的材料成本的一些因素。我們在之前的電話會議中也談到了它。但這些都包含在預測中，並包含在我們 47% 毛利率的長期目標模型中，我們仍然致力於實現這一目標。

And our next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自Needham & Company 的Charles Shi。

I want to dig into the weakness you're seeing in mobile for a minute. I believe you -- within the mobile, you have both the SoC probe card and RF probe card. Can you kind of tell us which one may be the bigger factor here in terms of the weakness in smartphone you are seeing here?

我想深入研究一下您在移動設備中看到的弱點。我相信您——在移動設備中，您同時擁有 SoC 探針卡和 RF 探針卡。就您在這裡看到的智能手機的弱點而言，您能告訴我們哪一個可能是更大的因素嗎？

Yes, Charles, it's Mike. It's mostly related to SoC: applications, processors, modems, things like that. As we've told you, as we've moved through the first half of the year, coming off a very strong 2021, we -- the RF business has moderated some in the first half of the year. But as you saw from the SoC results, the general Foundry & Logic results and our narrative around it in the first part of the year, we're seeing some real strength there.

是的，查爾斯，是邁克。它主要與 SoC 相關：應用程序、處理器、調製解調器等。正如我們已經告訴您的那樣，隨著我們在今年上半年度過一個非常強勁的 2021 年，我們 - 射頻業務在今年上半年有所放緩。但正如你從 SoC 的結果、Foundry & Logic 的總體結果以及我們在今年上半年圍繞它的敘述中看到的那樣，我們在那裡看到了一些真正的實力。

In the third quarter, we're seeing that sequentially down, again, associated in mobile with design release road map changes, customers pushing out and, in some cases, reducing volume for certain chip designs, and that has an impact on the overall probe card demand for those individual designs. So going Q2 to Q3, I'd say the delta primarily associated with reduced mobile SoC demand, if I carve it up between the mobile and compute sections.

在第三季度，我們再次看到移動設備的設計發布路線圖發生變化、客戶推出以及在某些情況下減少某些芯片設計的數量，這對整體調查產生了影響。這些個性化設計的卡片需求。所以從第二季度到第三季度，如果我將其劃分為移動和計算部分，我會說主要與移動 SoC 需求減少相關的增量。

Got it. Got it. On compute, is that more related to one specific customer? That's one part of the question. The other part is, is it more related to the change of the release schedule? Or it's more related to the adjustment of the volume that your compute customer is thinking about ramping?

知道了。知道了。在計算方面，這是否與特定客戶更相關？這是問題的一部分。另一部分是，是否與發佈時間表的變化有關？還是與您的計算客戶正在考慮的音量調整更相關？

Yes. As I said in the prepared remarks, it is multiple customers. Right now, although we're dealing with this nearly real time, it really does feel like mostly changes in design release schedules. You can imagine that with lead times much less than a quarter, the movement of a few weeks in and out to wait for ramp schedules can have a significant impact on our quarterly revenue. And again, in my response to Craig's question, I drew your attention back to Q4 '19, where this has worked in the opposite direction, there have been times where we can see this volatility of design release road maps, design release plans and wafer start plans impact things in a pretty [sick and different] way in any given period.

是的。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，它是多個客戶。現在，雖然我們幾乎是實時處理這個問題，但它確實感覺主要是設計發佈時間表的變化。您可以想像，在交貨時間遠少於四分之一的情況下，為了等待斜坡時間表而進出數週的時間可能會對我們的季度收入產生重大影響。再次，在我回答 Craig 的問題時，我將您的注意力提回到 19 年第 4 季度，這在相反的方向上起作用，有時我們可以看到設計發布路線圖、設計發布計劃和晶圓的這種波動開始計劃在任何特定時期都會以一種相當[病態和不同]的方式影響事物。

Got it. Got it. Maybe let me allow me very quick for the last question. You want to proceed your CapEx investment this year despite that Q3 seems to be a little bit of downtick in terms of business. Wonder whether you consider maybe you should delay a little bit of CapEx or you think the current weakness is maybe probably very short term in nature. You probably see more like a V-shaped kind of recovery in terms of demand so you want to proceed with the CapEx.

知道了。知道了。也許讓我快速回答最後一個問題。儘管第三季度的業務似乎有點下滑，但您希望今年繼續進行資本支出投資。想知道您是否考慮是否應該推遲一點資本支出，或者您認為當前的疲軟可能是非常短期的。就需求而言，您可能會看到更像是一種 V 型複蘇，因此您希望繼續進行資本支出。

Yes, I'll take that. So we believe these headwinds are temporary in nature. We remain confident in both our strategy and the market position, and we are continuing to plan capital investment as we track towards the long-term target model. These investments that we started a couple of years ago, they are required to maintain our industry leadership. That's why we didn't change the CapEx plans for the year and continue to expect to be between $60 million to $80 million for 2022. This is mainly in expanding capacity. Now I think that it is important to understand our customers are adding capacity, which means they will need more probe cards and they will need -- we need to be ready to capture the growth in the market share game here.

是的，我會接受的。因此，我們認為這些不利因素本質上是暫時的。我們對我們的戰略和市場地位仍然充滿信心，我們將繼續規劃資本投資，以實現長期目標模型。我們幾年前開始的這些投資，是保持我們行業領先地位所必需的。這就是為什麼我們沒有改變今年的資本支出計劃，並繼續預計 2022 年將在 6000 萬美元至 8000 萬美元之間。這主要是為了擴大產能。現在我認為重要的是要了解我們的客戶正在增加容量，這意味著他們將需要更多的探針卡，他們將需要——我們需要準備好抓住這里市場份額遊戲的增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Maybe let me happen to -- back to the gross margin freight a little bit here. I appreciate sort of the bucketing and the attribution. But to be blunt -- and I understand there's some effects, and that's what I kind of want to unpack a little bit here. But -- yes, but that -- but the revenue level we're talking about, even with say like a 20% decline in foundry logic Q-on-Q, it sort of implied in 3Q, if that's right. I would expect still sort of mid-40% gross margins, not necessarily going the 800 basis points decline Q-on-Q from the revenue level in the second quarter.

也許讓我碰巧 - 回到這裡的毛利運費。我很欣賞這種分桶和歸因。但坦率地說 - 我知道有一些影響，這就是我想在這裡解開的一點。但是 - 是的，但是那個 - 但是我們正在談論的收入水平，即使說像代工邏輯 Q-on-Q 下降 20%，它有點暗示在第三季度，如果這是正確的。我預計毛利率仍然在 40% 左右，不一定會比第二季度的收入水平環比下降 800 個基點。

And so -- yes, I mean is my math in terms of segmentation kind of right? And then I guess if we just did sort of like a -- I know this is not guidance, but if revenues were just flat in Q4, and sometimes you even get a bit of a late kick from your customers in Q4 in terms of foundry. But if Q4 revenues were flat, what sort of -- are some of these impingements on gross margins going away? And where would your gross margins kind of normalize out to on, say that this flat revenue, not a guidance, but just sort of a scenario for Q4?

所以——是的，我的意思是我的數學分割是對的嗎？然後我想如果我們只是有點像 - 我知道這不是指導，但如果第四季度的收入持平，有時你甚至會在第四季度從代工方面從客戶那裡得到一點延遲.但是，如果第四季度收入持平，那麼這些對毛利率的影響會消失嗎？你的毛利率會在哪裡正常化，比如說這個固定的收入，不是指導，而只是第四季度的一種情景？

Yes. So on revenues level similar to Q2, $200-and-something million. On a similar revenue profile and product mix to Q2, we estimate that gross margins would have been our target model gross margin of 47%. So if you take the 3 components I was talking about, some of them -- so the mix, I think we understand, the fixed cost over lower level of revenue, I think I addressed that now when I talked about similar level -- revenue level and similar gross margins for Q2.

是的。因此，在類似於第二季度的收入水平上，200 美元左右。在與第二季度類似的收入狀況和產品組合上，我們估計毛利率將是我們的目標模型毛利率 47%。因此，如果您考慮我所說的 3 個組成部分，其中一些——所以我想我們理解，固定成本與較低收入水平相比，我想我現在談到類似水平時已經解決了這個問題——收入第二季度的水平和類似的毛利率。

And the additional manufacturing expenses, and I answered that before as well. This -- some of it is higher labor cost and higher cost of materials. But a big part of it in Q3 is timing of manufacturing costs that we capitalized in the first half of the year or mainly in Q2 and we're going to amortize in Q3, so we don't expect them to repeat. And so taking all that into consideration, as I said earlier, we are committed and feel confident with getting into our 47% gross margin.

還有額外的製造費用，我之前也回答過。這 - 其中一些是更高的勞動力成本和更高的材料成本。但第三季度的很大一部分是我們在上半年或主要在第二季度資本化的製造成本的時間安排，我們將在第三季度攤銷，因此我們預計它們不會重複。因此，考慮到所有這些，正如我之前所說，我們承諾並有信心實現 47% 的毛利率。

That capitalized cost then does still stay with the -- in the cost of goods sold in 4Q as well?

那麼，資本化成本是否仍然與第四季度銷售的商品成本保持一致？

Well, it depends on the inventory build in Q4, I'm not going to drag you into all that accounting. But most of it will be amortized, if not all of it will be amortized in Q3, and how much is going to go into Q4 depends on how much inventory you're going to have at Q3 end. But I'll go back to my first remark. On a similar revenue level of $200 million plus, similar revenue profile and product mix, we estimate a gross margin of 47%.

嗯，這取決於第四季度的庫存，我不會把你拖到所有的會計裡。但大部分將攤銷，如果不是全部將在第三季度攤銷，第四季度將有多少將取決於第三季度末您將擁有多少庫存。但我會回到我的第一句話。在類似的 2 億美元以上的收入水平、類似的收入狀況和產品組合上，我們估計毛利率為 47%。

Okay. And in terms of understanding, I'm not surprised by this adjustment phase for some of your customers. It kind of makes sense relative to my understanding of the business. What sort of duration or how long do you think this adjustment period will take based on history, based on your discussions? Because it could be a quarter, it could be 2, but is the understanding here that they'll release probe cards against future products and wafer starts once they're through this adjustment period.

好的。在理解方面，我對你們的一些客戶的這個調整階段並不感到驚訝。相對於我對業務的理解，這有點道理。根據歷史，根據您的討論，您認為這個調整期需要多長時間或多長時間？因為可能是一個季度，可能是 2 個，但這裡的理解是，一旦他們度過了這個調整期，他們將針對未來的產品和晶圓開始發布探針卡。

Yes, Brian, it's Mike. I'll take that. The timing, as always in this business and the visibility, a little bit uncertain given that lead times are well within a quarter. But as you might imagine, we're having some very detailed conversations with these customers to make sure we understand what their demand profile is going to be, what some of these rescheduling scenarios look like. And right now, it does seem like a pretty short-term event. I'm not sure I want to create expectations right now that there's a snapback in early Q4. But right now, things like us continuing with our capacity expansions, continuing to invest in R&D., I think, are pretty good indicators that we don't view this as a structural long-term change in the Foundry & logic market. We remain excited about the growth prospects for Foundry & Logic.

是的，布賴恩，是邁克。我會接受的。鑑於交貨時間在四分之一之內，因此與此業務和知名度一樣，時間安排有點不確定。但正如您可能想像的那樣，我們正在與這些客戶進行一些非常詳細的對話，以確保我們了解他們的需求概況，以及這些重新安排方案中的一些情況。現在，這似乎是一個相當短期的事件。我不確定我現在是否要創造期望，因為第四季度初會出現回彈。但現在，我認為，像我們繼續擴大產能、繼續投資研發這樣的事情是非常好的指標，我們不認為這是代工和邏輯市場的結構性長期變化。我們仍然對 Foundry & Logic 的增長前景感到興奮。

Maybe if I could just ask one more, and this is sort of intertwine, I guess, Mike, what you just talked about, but would you say your key customers have determined their wafer test strategy needs for their upcoming heterogeneous integration ramp-ups -- yes, and I know it's -- maybe it's mobile a little bit in terms of some of the readjustments that are happening right now. But I know that was something that was still being decided. And I guess based on your, I guess, response, do you envision this -- when do you envision that being a meaningful contributor to the business? Could that happen in Q4? Is it maybe more like a first half of next year?

也許我可以再問一個問題，這有點交織在一起，我猜，邁克，你剛才談到的，但你會說你的主要客戶已經確定了他們即將到來的異構集成加速的晶圓測試策略需求 - - 是的，我知道它是 - 就目前正在發生的一些調整而言，它可能有點移動。但我知道那是仍在決定的事情。我猜根據你的回應，我猜，你是否設想過這一點——你什麼時候設想過成為對業務有意義的貢獻者？這可能發生在第四季度嗎？是不是更像是明年上半年？

Yes. I think the different heterogeneous integration or chiplet or tile-based strategies, mostly still in the development phase with different customers. We are delivering probe cards in pilot volumes to major customers for those products. And I think it's probably, as we said in the past, an early 2023 event, there are contributions to our revenue right now associated with those pilot ramps. But again, as those customers adapt their product release road maps and ramp plans to their end market conditions, we might expect to see some changes there as well. But certainly, everything is setting up for 2023 to be a pretty major adoption year in terms of advanced packaging, chiplets and heterogeneous integration.

是的。我認為不同的異構集成或chiplet或基於tile的策略，大多仍處於與不同客戶的開發階段。我們正在為這些產品的主要客戶提供試量探針卡。而且我認為，正如我們過去所說，這可能是 2023 年初的事件，我們的收入現在與這些試點坡道相關。但同樣，隨著這些客戶調整他們的產品發布路線圖和斜坡計劃以適應他們的最終市場條件，我們可能會期望在那裡看到一些變化。但可以肯定的是，就先進封裝、小芯片和異構集成而言，一切都在為 2023 年做好準備。

Our next question comes from the line of David Duley with Steelhead Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Steelhead Securities 的 David Duley。

Yes. I guess I have a couple. Just to clarify things, I think one of your big customers are going to grasp the 3-nanometer sometime next year. When will that start to impact demand from moving from 5 or 7 nanometers to 3 nanometers? When will you start to see an increase in 3-nanometer probe card demand?

是的。我想我有一對。澄清一下，我認為您的一位大客戶將在明年某個時候掌握 3 納米。什麼時候會開始影響從 5 或 7 納米到 3 納米的需求？您何時會開始看到 3 納米探針卡需求的增長？

David, it's Mike. Again, given the lead time characteristics of the Foundry & Logic probe card business, you're pretty close to the wafer start ramps associated with those. So it's not like it's a 2 to 3 quarter in front of the wafer ramp, maybe 1 quarter if I were to estimate it for you. Again, that goes to some of the dynamics we've talked about in the past that lead to our confidence in the Foundry & Logic market as customers continue to invest in wafer fab equipment added these advanced nodes, whether they be 3-nanometer or others. We're pretty confident they're going to utilize those for new designs and ramp those new designs, but that's still in front of us. And again, probably a 1 quarter -- we'll lead it by 1 quarter in terms of wafer starts and then wafer outs for a node like 3-nano.

大衛，我是邁克。同樣，考慮到 Foundry & Logic 探針卡業務的交貨時間特徵，您已經非常接近與這些相關的晶圓啟動斜坡。因此，它不像是晶圓坡道前的 2 到 3 個季度，如果我要為您估算的話，可能是 1 個季度。再次，這涉及我們過去談到的一些動態，這些動態導致我們對晶圓代工和邏輯市場充滿信心，因為客戶繼續投資晶圓廠設備添加這些先進節點，無論它們是 3 納米還是其他.我們非常有信心他們會將這些用於新設計並增加這些新設計，但這仍然擺在我們面前。再一次，可能是 1 個季度——我們將在晶圓啟動方面領先 1 個季度，然後在 3 納米這樣的節點上領先。

So just to be clear, if wafer starts to ramp up the 3-nanometer in Q3 of next year, you'd start to see it in Q2?

所以要明確一點，如果晶圓在明年第三季度開始加速 3 納米，你會在第二季度開始看到它嗎？

Yes, I think that's a fair kind of ballpark estimate.

是的，我認為這是一個公平的估計。

Okay. And are you currently contemplating lowering expense levels because of the near-term reductions in demand, given, as you mentioned, you have slow lead times? So you have some idea of when demand is going to improve. But are you contemplating lowering operating expenses in the near term?

好的。您目前是否正在考慮由於近期需求減少而降低費用水平，正如您所提到的，您的交貨時間很慢？因此，您對需求何時會有所改善有所了解。但是您是否考慮在短期內降低運營費用？

Yes, I'll take that. So regarding expenses and both cost of sales and OpEx, some of our costs are designed to be variable, like performance-based compensation and over time. And it is reflected in the Q3 outlook we provided today, right? We are seeing OpEx, for example, going down from $54.5 million to around $52 million in Q3. But overall, we are maintaining our cost structure and capacity to support higher revenue quarters and stronger demand as we make progress towards the target financial model. So no structural -- significant structural changes to OpEx at this point. We'll continue to look into that and make adjustments if needed in the future.

是的，我會接受的。因此，關於費用以及銷售成本和運營成本，我們的一些成本被設計為可變的，例如基於績效的薪酬和隨著時間的推移。這反映在我們今天提供的第三季度展望中，對吧？例如，我們看到第三季度的運營支出從 5450 萬美元下降到 5200 萬美元左右。但總體而言，隨著我們朝著目標財務模式取得進展，我們正在維持我們的成本結構和能力，以支持更高的收入季度和更強勁的需求。因此，在這一點上，OpEx 沒有結構性的重大結構性變化。我們將繼續對此進行調查，並在未來需要時進行調整。

Okay. Final one for me is, I think you described a vast majority of the reduction in revenue sequentially from $204 million to $183 million was coming from the Foundry & Logic business. I guess that suggests that the memory business is going to be flat in Q3. Would you expect there to be weakness in that market as well given all the kind of difficulties we've seen from players in that space and the weakness in PCs? Or are other markets for DRAM absorbing that and you feel like you can make it over the next few quarters without a reduction in DRAM demand?

好的。對我來說最後一個是，我認為您描述的收入從 2.04 億美元連續下降到 1.83 億美元的絕大部分來自 Foundry & Logic 業務。我想這表明內存業務在第三季度將持平。考慮到我們從該領域的玩家那裡看到的所有困難以及個人電腦的疲軟，您是否認為該市場也會出現疲軟？或者其他 DRAM 市場是否正在吸收這一點，並且您覺得您可以在接下來的幾個季度中實現這一目標，而 DRAM 需求不會減少？

At this stage of the game, David, I think it's more of the latter. It's something we're obviously keeping a very close eye on given some of the CapEx announcements from our customers, most recently SK hynix last night. But we are seeing DRAM probe card demand and flash probe card demand hold up reasonably well here. Part of that, I think, is customers are continuing to release new designs, DDR4 and DDR5, both mobile and server.

在比賽的這個階段，大衛，我認為更多的是後者。鑑於我們的客戶（最近一次是昨晚 SK hynix）發布的一些資本支出公告，我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。但我們看到這裡的 DRAM 探針卡需求和閃存探針卡需求相當不錯。我認為，部分原因是客戶繼續發布新設計，DDR4 和 DDR5，包括移動設備和服務器。

They're definitely shifting mix around as our Foundry & Logic customers are between the different end market segments. But so far, that memory business seems to be holding up as well. The one caveat again that I'll remind you of is our lead times are relatively short. So memory probe cards, lead times well within a quarter as well. But for now, we do see decent design activity, continued strong demand at approximately the levels we've seen in the first half of the year.

他們肯定會改變組合，因為我們的 Foundry & Logic 客戶位於不同的終端細分市場之間。但到目前為止，該內存業務似乎也在持續。我要再次提醒您的一個警告是我們的交貨時間相對較短。因此，內存探針卡的交貨時間也在四分之一之內。但就目前而言，我們確實看到了不錯的設計活動，持續強勁的需求大約達到了我們在上半年看到的水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Mertens with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Mertens 和 Cowen 的觀點。

This is Robert Mertens on behalf of Krish Sankar of Cowen. Just looking into the September quarter guidance, you'd mentioned the turn in the foundry logic demand both from the compute and mobile markets. Are you able to break down a bit more if this is a function of in unit cuts or push out on designs? Just trying to get a better sense of when the slowdown started or when you were able to see demand start to slow down and then maybe what the duration of the current pause would be. And then I have one follow-up.

我是代表 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar 的 Robert Mertens。僅查看 9 月季度指南，您就提到了計算和移動市場對代工邏輯需求的轉變。如果這是單元內削減或推出設計的功能，您能否進一步分解？只是想更好地了解放緩何時開始，或者您何時能夠看到需求開始放緩，然後可能是當前暫停的持續時間。然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Robert, it's Mike. This is a pretty rapidly, changing situation. We've seen customers, again, reacting to their end market conditions and changing design releases, ramps on different products and different, I'll call it, volatility in the Foundry & Logic demand. It's obviously difficult for us with our industry vantage point to pinpoint exactly what the root cause of this is. But I think it's at least plausible that it's tied to some of the reduction in consumer spending we've seen on things like handsets and PCs.

是的，羅伯特，是邁克。這是一個非常迅速、不斷變化的情況。我們再次看到客戶對他們的最終市場條件和不斷變化的設計版本做出反應，不同產品的坡道和不同的，我稱之為，Foundry & Logic 需求的波動。以我們的行業優勢，我們顯然很難準確地確定造成這種情況的根本原因是什麼。但我認為這至少與我們在手機和個人電腦等產品上看到的消費者支出減少有關，這至少是合理的。

So in terms of duration, difficult to say right now. But again, I'll point back to our continued plan to increase our capacity, our continued commitment to the $2 non-GAAP earnings per share model at $850 million in revenue. We don't see a structural change here. We see some short-term volatility. And especially in Foundry & Logic, we remain awfully bullish about the growth prospects given all of the advanced node WFE investments and the shift to advanced packaging at those advanced nodes.

所以就持續時間而言，現在很難說。但是，我將再次指出我們增加產能的持續計劃，我們繼續致力於實現 2 美元非 GAAP 每股收益模型，收入為 8.5 億美元。我們在這裡看不到結構性變化。我們看到一些短期波動。尤其是在 Foundry & Logic，鑑於所有先進節點 WFE 投資以及這些先進節點向先進封裝的轉變，我們仍然非常看好增長前景。

Great. That's definitely helpful. And then just real quick on recent guidance from other back-end peers are seeing a similar weakness into the second half of the year, but it doesn't seem like the same thing from the front-end manufacturers. There hasn't been any sort of major cuts with WFEs. There's sort of a way to think about the discrepancy between the front end and back end, whether it's like a disconnect in demand or just a function of varying lead times between the 2. I just wanted to see if you had any opinion on that.

偉大的。這絕對有幫助。然後，其他後端同行的最新指導很快就在今年下半年看到了類似的弱點，但前端製造商的情況似乎並不相同。 WFE沒有任何形式的重大削減。有一種方法可以考慮前端和後端之間的差異，無論是需求脫節還是兩者之間的交貨時間不同。我只是想看看您對此有何看法。

Yes. This may be a longer conversation, but we have seen, historically, a back-end, test-and-assembly investments be shorter lead times and be more responsive to customer demand, obviously, closer to the end of the line. And I think the other dynamic here, although to be clear, this is just my opinion, the very long lead times associated with the bulk of front-end equipment mean that customers are going to have to not necessarily cancel but lose their priority in terms of deliveries.

是的。這可能是一個較長的對話，但我們已經看到，從歷史上看，後端、測試和組裝投資的交付週期更短，並且更能響應客戶需求，顯然更接近生產線的末端。我認為這裡的另一個動態，雖然要清楚，這只是我的觀點，與大量前端設備相關的非常長的交貨時間意味著客戶不一定要取消，而是在條款方面失去他們的優先權的交貨。

And so I think given the circumstances in the industry over the past couple of years, where everybody has been trying to claw their capacity up, I think customers with the longer lead times associated with WFE are probably pretty reluctant to change those investment plans.

因此，我認為鑑於過去幾年行業的情況，每個人都在努力提高產能，我認為與 WFE 相關的交貨時間較長的客戶可能非常不願意改變這些投資計劃。

And our next question comes from the line of Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Christian Schwab 和 Craig-Hallum 的觀點。

I'm wondering what your thoughts are just kind of bigger picture when the Foundry & Logic demand could kind of come back, right? We're seeing a pretty pronounced normalization of smartphone and PC demand. But pre-COVID, PC demand was down 5 out of 7 years, and smartphones' shrank for 4 years going into it on a year-over-year basis as replacement cycles extended. Being the 2 most important markets as far as units are concerned, semiconductors, are you at all fearful that this could kind of be a prolonged level of less volume than maybe we've seen in the last few years?

我想知道當 Foundry & Logic 需求可能會捲土重來時，你的想法是什麼，對吧？我們看到智能手機和個人電腦需求非常明顯的正常化。但在 COVID 之前，PC 需求在 7 年中下降了 5 年，隨著更換週期的延長，智能手機的需求同比下降了 4 年。就單位而言，作為兩個最重要的市場，半導體，你是否擔心這可能會比我們在過去幾年中看到的數量持續減少？

Christian, it's Mike. I don't think fear falls, right, the way I'd like to describe it, but we're certainly watching that. And I think, as I said on one of the previous questions, I think, this all comes back to consumer and macro drivers. If demand for PCs, for handsets does materially slow down for a long period of time, this has to result in lower chip demand and therefore lower probe card demand. One of the things we have seen historically, though, is in times like that, many of our customers accelerate their innovation road maps and start to release more new designs to try and differentiate their positions in tough market conditions for them.

克里斯蒂安，是邁克。我不認為恐懼會下降，對，就像我想描述的那樣，但我們肯定會看到這一點。而且我認為，正如我在之前的一個問題上所說，我認為，這一切都回到了消費者和宏觀驅動因素上。如果個人電腦和手機的需求在很長一段時間內大幅放緩，這必然導致芯片需求下降，從而導致探針卡需求下降。然而，我們在歷史上看到的一件事是，在這樣的時代，我們的許多客戶加快了他們的創新路線圖，並開始發布更多新設計，以嘗試在艱難的市場條件下區分他們的地位。

So again, watching the situation, as I'm sure everyone on this call is. But for now, things still seem to be structurally pretty strong in the industry. Again, that's why we're continuing to invest in capacity to make sure that we can meet continued growth in demand in Foundry & Logic and in our other segments as well.

再說一遍，看情況，我相信本次電話會議上的每個人都是。但就目前而言，該行業的結構似乎仍然相當強勁。同樣，這就是我們繼續投資產能的原因，以確保我們能夠滿足 Foundry & Logic 以及我們其他領域的需求持續增長。

Great. And then a follow-up on the investment in additional capacity. When you guys decided to do that, was there an assumption on wafer starts or 1 million square inches of silicon or number of chips that you determined that you needed to make these future investments? Or is there anything behind the scenes where you believe any of your 3 largest customers that you've talked about previously, that there was an opportunity for market share gains versus other players in the space?

偉大的。然後是對額外產能投資的後續行動。當你們決定這樣做時，是否有關於晶圓開始或 100 萬平方英寸矽或芯片數量的假設，您確定您需要進行這些未來投資？或者，在幕後，您是否相信您之前談到的 3 個最大客戶中的任何一個，與該領域的其他參與者相比，有機會獲得市場份額？

Yes. There's a set of different variables that led us to commit to the significant capacity additions and capital expenditures we've been making and are continuing to make. Some of it is wafer starts on advanced nodes in the industry, and million square inches of silicon tends to be not a bad proxy for that.

是的。有一組不同的變量導致我們致力於我們一直在進行並將繼續進行的大量產能增加和資本支出。其中一些是在行業先進節點上開始的晶圓，而百萬平方英寸的矽往往不是一個糟糕的代表。

But the other is, and we brought this up before, the increasing test intensity associated with both advanced nodes and advanced packaging. Simply put, each wafer start needs more probe cards because customers are investing more in wafer test both to improve yields and to reduce their overall cost.

但另一個是，我們之前提到過，與先進節點和先進封裝相關的測試強度不斷增加。簡而言之，每個晶圓啟動都需要更多的探針卡，因為客戶在晶圓測試上投入更多，以提高產量並降低總體成本。

So when you put all those things together, along with some very detailed and specific conversations with our key customers about their long-term capacity needs, that's what led us to embark on the capacity increases a couple of years ago. So that as Shai said, we can retain our leadership position and even increase our leadership position in the markets we serve.

因此，當您將所有這些東西放在一起，以及與我們的主要客戶就他們的長期容量需求進行一些非常詳細和具體的對話時，這就是我們在幾年前開始增加容量的原因。因此，正如 Shai 所說，我們可以保持我們的領導地位，甚至提高我們在所服務市場的領導地位。

Great. And if I could just squeak in one more last question. With the slowdown that's happening kind of in the back end echoed by Teradyne earlier today as well, do you think we're in an opportunity now where with things kind of normalizing to some degree? Do you think there's an opportunity for increased M&A activity to create scale in the back end? Or where do you think there is still a significant interest in that?

偉大的。如果我能再問最後一個問題。今天早些時候泰瑞達也回應了後端發生的放緩，你認為我們現在有機會在某種程度上正常化嗎？您認為增加併購活動是否有機會在後端創造規模？或者你認為在哪裡仍然有很大的興趣？

Well, I can tell you we remain very interested in that. We've been public and consistent about our view that continued diversification, continued consolidation to drive scale in the back end is something of value. I guess I'm hopeful that things stabilize a little bit here that everybody understands where their businesses are headed.

好吧，我可以告訴你，我們仍然對此非常感興趣。我們一直公開且一致地認為，持續多樣化、持續整合以推動後端規模是有價值的。我想我希望事情在這裡稍微穩定一點，每個人都了解他們的業務發展方向。

We resume on a bit of a growth path, and this becomes perhaps a catalyst for those conversations to start. But right now, very focused on making sure we're executing against the demand. We do have strength in the systems business, continued solid memory results and staying close to our customers to make sure we're able to adapt to their changing wafer start schedules and deliver the probe cards when we need them.

我們繼續走上一條增長之路，這也許會成為這些對話開始的催化劑。但現在，我們非常專注於確保我們的執行符合需求。我們在系統業務方面確實有實力、持續穩定的內存結果並與我們的客戶保持密切聯繫，以確保我們能夠適應他們不斷變化的晶圓啟動時間表並在我們需要時交付探針卡。

And our next question comes from the line of David Silver with CL King.

我們的下一個問題來自 CL King 的 David Silver。

I think I'd just like to -- first question would just be to kind of clarify things a little bit. But beyond kind of the medium-term decision-making by the -- your major customers regarding design releases and ramp-up schedules. There's, I guess, a longer-term effort by those same customers to add significant, new wafer fab capacity in the U.S. My timetable says a lot of it is for the 2024-to-2026-time frame.

我想我只是想-- 第一個問題只是稍微澄清一下。但除了您的主要客戶關於設計發布和加速計劃的中期決策之外。我想，這些相同的客戶會做出長期努力，以在美國增加重要的新晶圓廠產能。我的時間表顯示，其中大部分是針對 2024 年至 2026 年的時間框架。

Can I assume that your discussion of maintaining CapEx and things like that for new capacities that you're trying to align with those longer-term major capacity additions by your customers. And hence, it's kind of a sign that, that next wave of new fab development, a lot of it in this country is, it remains on track. So what we're talking about today and what we might be looking at in the 2024 to 2026 time frame are different, right? There's the shorter medium-term issue, but then the longer term in your view remains intact.

我可以假設您對維護資本支出的討論以及您試圖與客戶增加的長期主要產能保持一致的新產能。因此，這是一個跡象，表明下一波新的晶圓廠開發，在這個國家的很多，它仍然在軌道上。所以我們今天談論的和我們在 2024 年到 2026 年的時間範圍內可能看到的是不同的，對吧？存在較短的中期問題，但您認為長期保持不變。

I think that's a good way to summarize it. And Shai sort of alluded to that when he talked about our capacity increases, keeping pace with our customers, whether they're domestically-based or other places around the world. We are a global supplier, and these capacity investments are going to be needed for us to continue to lead the industry forward and capture the demand associated with all of these new fabs, these new fabs producing at advanced nodes. So yes, there almost always in this business is this timing decoupling of adapting to the short term but continuing to invest and strengthen the company for the long term.

我認為這是一個很好的總結方式。當 Shai 談到我們的產能增加時，他有點暗示了這一點，與我們的客戶保持同步，無論他們是在國內還是在世界其他地方。我們是一家全球供應商，我們需要這些產能投資才能繼續引領行業向前發展，並抓住與所有這些新晶圓廠相關的需求，這些新晶圓廠在先進節點上生產。所以，是的，在這項業務中幾乎總是存在這種適應短期但繼續長期投資和加強公司的時間脫鉤。

Got it. I did have a question, I guess, about -- I guess TechInsights or VLSI published some survey results that once again had form factor at the very high end of the rating scale, customer ratings. And when I look through the results, in particular, I think what stood out was your performance in China or from China-based customers. And I was just wondering if you could make a couple of comments on that.

知道了。我確實有一個問題，我猜，關於 - 我猜 TechInsights 或 VLSI 發布了一些調查結果，這些結果再次在評級量表的非常高端（客戶評級）中具有形式因素。特別是當我查看結果時，我認為最突出的是您在中國或來自中國客戶的表現。我只是想知道你是否可以就此發表一些評論。

The -- was the increase or the improvement kind of across the board in your ratings? Was that due to a particular effort on FormFactor's part, maybe building out your footprint in that area? And then maybe just a tiny bit of background. But in China, would this reflect mostly the Chinese operations of the multinationals? Or is this -- or are a significant portion of the survey results coming from Chinese-headquartered companies.

你的評分是全面提高還是提高？這是由於 FormFactor 方面的特別努力，也許是在該領域建立了您的足跡？然後也許只是一點點背景。但在中國，這是否主要反映了跨國公司在中國的業務？或者這是 - 或者是來自中國公司的調查結果的很大一部分。

Yes. I'll talk, first, generally about customer relationship -- actually, David, can you mute? I'm getting a lot of background noise. I'll talk first about customer satisfaction and customer relationships in general. It's been one of the cornerstones of our strategy and our culture to really invest in these relationships with key customers, and I think our survey results are a reflection of that. This is a small, concentrated industry. There are only so many suppliers and so many customers, and so we work very closely together. But that customer intimacy is really important in driving market share and in making sure that we deliver to customer expectations and adapt along with them in all of the various fluctuations in their business models.

是的。我先談談客戶關係——實際上，大衛，你能不說話嗎？我收到很多背景噪音。我將首先談談客戶滿意度和一般客戶關係。真正投資於與關鍵客戶的這些關係是我們戰略和文化的基石之一，我認為我們的調查結果反映了這一點。這是一個小而集中的行業。只有這麼多的供應商和這麼多的客戶，所以我們密切合作。但這種與客戶的親密關係對於推動市場份額並確保我們滿足客戶的期望並與他們一起適應他們商業模式的各種波動非常重要。

I think the improvement in the score results, probably several different factors. We don't know exactly which customers respond there. But if you look at the way we communicated through the pandemic, through supply chain issues, through different delivery challenges, through different logistical challenges, I think those are areas where we really paid attention on nurturing and cultivating these customer relationships, and that's probably reflected generally in the results.

我認為分數結果的提高，大概是幾個不同的因素。我們不確切知道哪些客戶在那裡做出了回應。但是，如果您看看我們通過大流行、供應鏈問題、不同的交付挑戰、不同的物流挑戰進行溝通的方式，我認為這些是我們真正關注培養和培養這些客戶關係的領域，這可能反映了一般在結果中。

Again, I don't know exactly who responded to the survey. But speaking to our China business, it is still mostly the multinationals who operate in the region, driving our revenue there. So if you make the assumption, and this is purely an assumption, that the survey results are aligned with the business we do, you'd have to assume it's mostly multinationals. But we have had some success in gaining market share with some of the key memory manufacturers there and some of the fabless companies there, and so that's probably reflected in the results as well.

同樣，我不知道究竟是誰對調查做出了回應。但就我們的中國業務而言，仍然主要是跨國公司在該地區開展業務，推動了我們在那裡的收入。因此，如果您做出假設，這純粹是假設，調查結果與我們所做的業務一致，您將不得不假設它主要是跨國公司。但我們在與那裡的一些主要內存製造商和一些無晶圓廠公司的市場份額方面取得了一些成功，因此這可能也反映在結果中。

(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from the line of Hans Chung with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Hans Chung 和 D.A.戴維森。

So I have a couple. So first, regarding the -- your commentary around the end market demand, the mobile and compute. So is there weakness across the board? Or it's more like low end on the mobile side and then maybe PC on the compute side? And do you see any changes in the high-end smartphone or the high-performance computing?

所以我有一對。首先，關於你對終端市場需求、移動和計算的評論。那麼是否存在全面的弱點？或者它更像是移動端的低端，然後可能是計算端的 PC？你看到高端智能手機或高性能計算有什麼變化嗎？

No, I think as we tried to convey both in the prepared remarks and in the questions we've had so far, we have seen reduced demand pretty broadly in both mobile and compute. Now it's difficult for us often to tell exactly whether a certain chip is going to be destined for a high-end handset or a mid-range handset. That's also true of the RF components. We obviously have insight into the specific designs, but to be able to partition and segment exactly where this chip is going to end up in terms of its end markets can be difficult from where we sit. So it feels to me, again, I don't want to call it broad-based, but there is multiple customers across multiple segments that are changing their design release road maps and short-term wafer start plans.

不，我認為當我們試圖在準備好的評論和迄今為止我們遇到的問題中表達時，我們已經看到移動和計算領域的需求普遍減少。現在，我們經常很難準確判斷某個芯片是用於高端手機還是中端手機。射頻組件也是如此。我們顯然對具體的設計有深入的了解，但是從我們所處的位置來看，要能夠準確地劃分和細分該芯片最終將在其終端市場中的最終位置可能會很困難。所以在我看來，我不想稱其為基礎廣泛的，但跨多個細分市場的多個客戶正在改變他們的設計發布路線圖和短期晶圓啟動計劃。

Got it. And then second question regarding the gross margin. So as we enter into 2023, then I think we have the 3-nanometer transition, we have DDR5, and then we have the heterogeneous integration, the chiplet. So it's fair to say all these could be a tailwind for gross margin from a product mix perspective. And if so, let's say, if the quarterly revenue rebound to $200 million next year, then can we see the gross margin to go above the 47% level?

知道了。然後是關於毛利率的第二個問題。所以當我們進入 2023 年時，我認為我們有 3 納米的過渡，我們有 DDR5，然後我們有異構集成，即小芯片。所以公平地說，從產品組合的角度來看，所有這些都可能是毛利率的順風。如果是這樣的話，假設明年季度收入反彈到2億美元，那麼我們能看到毛利率超過47%的水平嗎？

So mix -- this is Shai. I'll take this one. Mix has always had a major impact on our gross margin, right? We saw it in previous quarter. We saw it in this quarter, too. When we talk about our target model of $850 million of revenue and 47% gross margin, most of the growth should come from Foundry & Logic. And Foundry & Logic historically has a higher gross margin. So it's kind of in line at least with some of the things you said that the growth in Foundry & Logic will drive higher gross margin and will help us get to the 47% gross margin target model that kind of in line.

所以混合 - 這是Shai。我要這個。混合一直對我們的毛利率產生重大影響，對吧？我們在上一季度看到了它。我們在本季度也看到了它。當我們談到我們 8.5 億美元收入和 47% 毛利率的目標模型時，大部分增長應該來自 Foundry & Logic。 Foundry & Logic 在歷史上的毛利率更高。所以這至少符合你所說的一些事情，即 Foundry & Logic 的增長將推動更高的毛利率，並將幫助我們達到 47% 的毛利率目標模型。

As for revenue bouncing back to $200 million plus, I mentioned it earlier in the call, and the simple answer is, yes. At the revenue level, similar to Q2 of $204 million, for example, with a similar revenue profile and product mix, we estimate the gross margin would have been our target model of 47%, right? So our target model overall $850 million, 47% we are making progress towards the model. But margin will fluctuate. We said it before, and we see it in this quarter as well, this quarter meaning Q3.

至於收入反彈到 2 億美元以上，我在電話會議的前面提到過，簡單的答案是肯定的。在收入水平上，類似於第二季度的 2.04 億美元，例如，在類似的收入狀況和產品組合的情況下，我們估計毛利率應該是 47% 的目標模型，對吧？因此，我們的目標模型總計 8.5 億美元，其中 47% 我們正在朝著該模型取得進展。但保證金會波動。我們之前說過，我們在本季度也看到了，本季度意味著第三季度。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions. So with that, I'll hand the call back over to CEO, Mike Slessor, for any closing remarks.

謝謝你。我沒有進一步的問題。因此，我將把電話轉回給首席執行官 Mike Slessor，以聽取任何結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We're scheduled to attend several of the late summer investor conferences where we're eager to update you on our continued progress towards the target model. So I hope to see you then. If we don't, stay safe, and we'll talk to you on our Q3 results call. Take care.

謝謝大家，今天加入我們。我們計劃參加幾個夏末的投資者會議，我們渴望向您介紹我們在目標模型方面的持續進展。所以我希望那時能見到你。如果我們不這樣做，請保持安全，我們將在第三季度業績電話會議上與您交談。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接了。