Franco-Nevada Corp (FNV) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Franco-Nevada Corporation's 2024 year-end results conference call and webcast. This call is being recorded on March 10, 2025. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Joanna. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Franco-Nevada's year-end 2024 results. Accompanying this call is a presentation which is available on our website at franco-nevada.com, where you will also find your full financial results. The presentation is also available to view on the webcast.

During our call this morning, Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada, will provide introductory remarks followed by Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer, who will provide a brief review of our results. This will be followed by a Q&A period.

Our full executive team is available to answer any questions. Participants may submit questions by the telephone or via the webcast. We would like to remind participants that some of today's commentary may contain forward-looking information. And we refer you to our detailed cautionary note on slide 2 of this presentation.

I will now turn over the call to Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada.

Thanks, Candida. Good morning. First of all, welcome to Daniel Malchuk, who joined our board in January. Daniel's an experienced director and spent much of his executive career at BHP. Including's heading operations in the Americas, running the copper, aluminum, and nickel and manganese businesses, and heading the exploration division.

Daniels Chilean based on Santiago and I'm sure we will add valuable perspectives on many of the assets and the countries in which we invest. We ended the year well with a strong fourth quarter. Do your sales for the year when near the top end of our revised guidance range. The tailwind from rising gold prices with higher quarterly revenue adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income compared to Q4 2023.

Even without a contribution from corporate Panama. 2024 was the most active year in our history for business development. I and the team entered into more than $1.3 billion in acquisitions and commitments during the year. Transactions included gold stream investment in Cascabel and Ecuador.

A royalty on the Yanacocha gold mine in Peru and a principally gold stream on Savania's Western [Li PGM] operations in South Africa. All of them high quality or bodies with potential to be very long-life mines. One of our largest portfolio successes in 2024 was the completion of construction and commercial operation of Tocantinzinho mine in Brazil, where we have a 12.5% gold stream.

No surprise, the mine built by the G mining team was on time and on budget. Rather than just providing stream financing, [Franken ater] is the financial backer of team and benches, having provided stream debt and equity components. He said it is only the first of many mines G men will build and Franco a strong financial banking for the fulfilment.

In January, we announced a second partnership based on the same principles, a financing package to support Discovery Silver's acquisition of Newmont's Porcupine Complex and tenants, including a royalty credit facility and backing for their equity race. Joining the [Kuchin] team are absolutely the right group to revitalize the porcupine assets and realize the tremendous potential that still remains in the camp.

This is possibly only the first move to consolidate operations in the camp. And with financial backing from Franco, Discovery is well positioned for those next steps. The acquisitions of the last 12 months have the potential to add 85,000 to 95,000 GEOs per annum to our medium-term production profile, almost all gold answers.

With these new additions along with organic growth from our existing portfolio. The growth outlined in our 2025 guidance and outlook for the next five years. 2025, the new contributions from Sibanye-Stillwater's Western Limb operations and porcupine. And full year contributions from Yanacocha, Tocantinzinho, Greenstone, and Salares Norte, will have a big impact.

Some of the highlights for the longer-term outlook are higher silver contributions from Antamina and new gold bouncers from the startup of Valentine Gold, [Skate Creek, and Stepine Gold]. With San's management of our balance sheet, all the acquisitions were or will be when the Discovery deal closes, funded from our cash balances, and we'll still have no debt and a substantial cash balance.

Our growing operating cash flows also allowed us to increase dividends for the 18th consecutive time in January this year. Cumulative dividends since IPO are now upgraded in $2.5 billion. A business development team could do the breakup of all the activity in the last 12 months, but I don't think that's going to happen. We have actual opportunities that could add more attractive assets this year.

Finally, I'm very encouraged by the developments in Panama. President Mulino has indicated a willingness to discuss Cobre Panama this year, and sentiment in Panama now appears more supportive of restarting. I think there are good odds we'll see positive progress this year.

For that, I'll have the call over to Sandip.

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. As Paul mentioned, Franco-Nevada ended the year with a strong fourth quarter, which was the result of both strong production from our asset base and higher Precious Metal prices. Precious metal prices with gold in particular reached record highs in 2024.

On slide 4, you will see the comparison of commodity prices for both fourth quarter and full year 2024. Gold and silver prices increased significantly for both periods, with gold higher by 34.7% in the quarter and 22.9% for the year. Prices for palladium, iron ore, and oil continue to be Volatile and were lower year-over-year. Slide 5 provides a recap of the company's performance against the revised guidance provided for last year.

The updated guidance for 2024 provided for a range of 445,000 to 465,000 total deal sold. Of this total, the company guided 340,000 to 360,000 Precious metal GEOs, with the balance being from diversified assets. With the strong finish to the end of the year, the company ended the year with 463,334 GEOs sold, which was near the top end of the guidance range. We were also at the top end of the guidance range for Precious Metals with 355,280 GEOs sold.

The diversified assets, which include our non-precious metal mining assets and energy assets, resulted in just over 108,000 GEOs sold every year. I'd like to point out that the revenue generated from our diversified assets was actually in line with our expectations for the year. However, with a 37% higher average gold price in 2024 than our 1,950 budgeted gold price, when converting to GEOs sold, it actually resulted in the loss of 21,000 GEOs than if the gold price had remained at our budget prices.

According to slide 6, you'll see the 2023 and 2024 fourth quarter comparisons for GEOs sold, revenue and adjusted. Total GEOs sold for 120,0063 in fourth quarter compared to 152,351 and fourth quarter 2023. Precious metal GEO sold in fourth quarter of 2024 were 95,565 higher by 5% compared to prior year when excluding core.

For the fourth quarter, we received strong contributions from Candelaria and benefited from the continued ramp up of new mines for Tocantinzinho and Greenstone. Candelaria delivered 26,891 GEOs for the quarter, which was almost 70% higher than the prior year and twice as many GEOs as Q3 2024. Diversified GEO sold were 24,298 for the quarter compared to 32,770 for prior year, despite diversified revenue being flat year over year. The approximately 8,000 GEOs so difference is due to the impact of GEO conversion using higher prices.

Total revenue for the quarter was $321 million compared to $303.3 million last year, a 5.8% increase. Precious Metals accounted for 79% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was 9% higher for the quarter at $277.4 million compared to $254.6 million in fourth quarter of 2023. As you turn to slide 7, you'll see a new measure that we have presented in our year-end financial results. It is called net GEOs. As we look at our royalty and streaming business, we think it's important to evaluate contributions from assets based on margin contribution and not necessarily top line measures.

Royalty GEOs are higher margin GEOs as there is minimal cost associated with each sold versus a stream where an ongoing fixed payment is required. The measure net GEOs removes the cost of sales component for all GEOs so that all GEOs sold are represented after cost. For Q4 2024, net GEOs were $107,140 for Franco-Nevada compared to 129,527 in Q4 2023.

Slide 8, highlights the key financial metrics used by a company. As mentioned, total GEO sold were 120,0063, generating $321 million in revenue in fourth quarter. With respect to costs, we did have a decrease in cost of sales compared to Q4 2023 due to less rehouses sold, which is predominantly related to the absence of Cobre Panama.

Depletion decreased to $60 million versus $68.9 million a year ago. Depletion is based on actual mining GEOs sold and barrels of oil equivalent received on the energy side of the business. As we receive less GEOs from Cobre Panama and anticipates, this impact of depletion as those assets are higher per ounce depletion assets.

Adjust the net income was $183.3 million or $0.95 per share for the quarter, up 6% and 5% respectively versus prior year. Slide 9 highlights the continued diversification of the portfolio, 76.5% of our full year 2024 revenue was France generated by Precious Metals, with revenue being sourced 83.9% from the Americas. Our largest contributor to revenue was Candelaria at 14.6% for the full year.

Slide 10 illustrates the strength of our business model to generate high margins. For full year 2024, cash cost per GEO, which is essentially cost to sales divided by gold equivalent ounces sold, is $278 per GEO. This compares to $286 per GEO in 2023. For the quarter of the cash cost per ounce was $287 compared to $296 in the fourth quarter 2023.

As the gold price has risen, Franco-Nevada has seen a significant increase in our margin per GEO. Margin was 2,375 per GEO in Q4 2024. We've always stated that in a rising commodity price environment. We expect to benefit fully as the cost for GEO sold should not increase significantly. With respect to the company's GEO-sold guidance for 2025, please prefer to slide 11. For 2025, we are guiding total GEO sold of between 465,000 to 525,000, which is a 7% increase over 2024. If you use constant pricing between 2025 and 2024, the increase would be 13% year-over-year.

On this range, we are guiding 385,000 to 425,000 Precious metal GEOs for the year. This is a 14% increase in Precious Metal GEOs over 2020. The overall main drivers for GEOs year-over-year are for Precious Metals, will benefit from contributions from recent acquisitions, Sibanye-Stillwater's Western Limb operations stream, Porcupine Complex royalty, and Yanacocha royalty.

We will continue to benefit from the ramp up of new mines that began production in 2024 to continue, Greenstone, and Flores Norte, and we will begin to receive initial ounces from the currently under construction Valentine gold mine in the second half of 2025. Please note, we will no longer be receiving gold ounces from Mineway Solutions as the cap was reached in October 2024.

Our guidance has been calculated using $2800 per ounce for gold, $31 for silver, $950 platinum, $950 for palladium, and $100 Iron ore. Obviously, prices are volatile, and as they change, it will impact the conversion of non-growth commodities to GEOs. On the energy side, we're using a price of $70 per barrel WTI and $3 MCF natural gas.

Using our budgeted gold price of 2,800 per ounce and the midpoint of our total GEOs guidance range, we expect a 25% increase in 2025 revenue over 2024. Also, with respect to timing, we do expect to see better performance as the year progresses. So a stronger second half is expected.

As you look forward over the next few years, we do forecast 2028 as the current high for GEO sold based upon the information we have to date. For 2029, our outlook is 490,000 to 550,000 GEOs sold. Of this range, Precious Metals will be 375,000 to 415,000 GEOs. Main contributors will be higher production from Antamina due to access to higher grade ore based on the latest mine plan, full your contributions from Valentine Gold.

And new mine starts from Stivn Gold, SK Creek, Castle Mountain, and copper wood. We've also assumed the startup of Taca Taca with a partial year contribution. We assume mine expansions for Candelaria, Coroccohuayco and Antapaccay, and Magino.

For the energy assets, we do assume an increase in production over the next 5 years, resulting in an increase in GEOs. Also, we've held energy prices flat at $70 a barrel WTI and $3 in MCF natural gas. Overall, when you look at the outlook for GEO sold. The company has approximately 12% built-in organic growth from 2024 to 2029 at budgeted com commodity prices, excluding Cobre Panama. This also assumes that no additional assets are added to the portfolio.

Please note that for all Outlook ranges, we have excluded Cobre Panama in our GEO sold numbers. At Core Panama remained in production, we would have expected deliveries and sales of between 130,000 and 150,000 GEOs. One additional item to note with the legal proceedings that will move forward related to corporate Panama, we're expecting to incur annual costs of approximately $10 million per year.

These costs will continue to be disclosed separately in our financials. Slide 13 summarizes the financial resources available to the company. When including our credit facility of $1 billion total available capital at December 31st was $2.4 billion. After year end, we have funded the $500 million Sibanye Western Limb Complex acquisition and expect to fund the port find royalty acquisition during the second quarter. The company remains well capitalized to continue to add long-life high-quality assets to the portfolio.

And now I'll pass it over to Jonah, and we're happy to answer any questions.

(Operator Instructions) Lawson Winder, Bank of America Securities.

Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, Paul and Sandip. I wanted to start off with a couple of questions on corporate Panama, if I might. So one would be just related to President Mulino and some comments that he's made publicly. President Mulino of Panama, he indicated that he would require all arbitrations to be halted prior to entering into discussions with first quantum.

I just want to confirm that that also included the Franco arbitration and does Franco have the ability to put its arbitration on hold or just temporary put it temporarily put it aside in order to facilitate those negotiations if needed?

Thank you, Lawson. This is Paul. The couple of things there, yes, the separate arbitration processes and the separate regimes. There is the ability under each of those processes that you can put the arbitration on hold for a fixed time frame. So that is a possibility, although we haven't had any asks from any of the parties to put us on hold.

Okay, perfect. And then thanks for that Paul. And then another comment that President Mulino had made was just speaking about the economics of the prior deal negotiated under the [Cortizo] government relating to Cobre Panama and noting that it was unfavorable for Panama. Has Franco-Nevada had any messages delivered or has any understanding what that could potentially mean for the Franco stream or whether it means anything at all.

And for example, there's been some discussion of potential change in in in the ownership position. So the potential owner ownership position going to the country of Panama. -- I mean, can you comment on any potential implications for Franco there? I know it's highly speculative, but it has been mentioned many times in the Panamanian press, and we just like to get your views.

So first off, -- in terms of economics, I think that the deal that was negotiated a couple of years back, was positive, was a good deal for Panama. You you'll recall in particular, it had the provisions, that provided minimum payments in the order of $375 million a year, which I think for any country is a particularly strong provision. So I think they were good economics for Panama in that deal. I know there has been discussion of the country potentially wanting to get a better deal.

I'm not surprised by that. In terms of the way that may go for Franco, we're financiers here, not owners. So on the legalities of it, and any change in ownership doesn't, change the way that our stream is calculated, any increase in taxes in country or any increase in royalties, none of that changes the way that our royalties.

Okay, thank you very much for those comments It's very helpful. And then, just two of the other streams that I'd like to ask about it just be helpful to get a little bit of color on specifics. So with the SSW or the Sibanye-Stillwater's South African PGM stream. So it's closed, congratulations.

And then just for Q1, when we think about the 7,000 GEOs from '24 and then the 45-day delay before any GEOs are actually delivered to Franco, how should we think about it when the first delivery might occur, whether it be Q1 or Q2, or what would you recommend us modeling with respect to that particular stream?

It will often extend. This is Sandip. So it has closed it closed a couple of weeks ago. The delivery from September to December for 2024 we will receive in Q1. And you're correct that the next delivery related to 2025 production, there's a 45-day time delay. So that'll come in in 2. So for Q1, you should only be budgeting or estimating the delivery related to 2024.

Okay, fantastic. And then just longer term, make sure that's just longer term thinking about the '28 and '29 got in, Magino and I are now sort of moving in the direction of becoming one operation. So with Magino, there's a 3% royalty and then with Ireland there's a 0.62% royalty.

How is that delineated or, is there the potential for those to become a combined royalty, or would it strictly depend on from where the ore comes. And so, the context here is that the idea is to, eventually close the island mill and process island ore at Magino is there an additive benefit here or is it just, we have to figure out what the mix is between the two ore sources going forward to get to the right royalty level?

So right now on Island we only cover up a portion of the deposit and so but at Magino we cover the full land package. You're right, they are talking about, shutting the Island gold mill and expanding the Magino mill to 15,000 tons per day. Alamos is reviewing that right now.

so once they do that, it'll just be a question of where does the or come when we did our deal, we had budgeted 11,500 times per day coming from Magino. So I think at a minimum that's what we should be receiving, on any production going forward once they do expand the mill.

And then in your current 2028 and 2029 guidance that's the 11,500 tons per day, is that correct?

Right, correct.

Thank you very much, guys. I appreciate it.

Cosmos Chiu, CIBC World Markets

Thanks, Paul and Sandip. Maybe my first question is on the GEOs and how you calculate it Could you remind us, each and every quarter how you calculate GEOs, how you convert, commodities, not gold, into gold equivalent ounces. Is that based on the spot prices during that quarter, or is it based on your assumption that you put out beginning of the year, like today, $2,831 an ounce.

Hi, cosmos. Yes, we will adjust it each quarter. So essentially at a high level we'll take our non-gold revenue, and we will divide by the average gold price for the quarter. So obviously you saw last year gold prices increased and it impacted the number of GEOs or diversified assets generated even though the revenue was the same, as what we expected for the year.

And Sandip, as you mentioned last year, you had to change it because it's gold prices clearly fluctuated quite a bit beyond what you had expected beginning of 2024. But for 2025 guidance, I guess my question is, could you share with us how much buffer you've put into that guidance.

And I guess my question is how much it can withstand in terms of volatility and commodity prices just given that last year when you had to change your guidance in 2024, it was not exactly too well received. I'm just trying to see if that could happen again in 2025?

If it does happen, it's actually a great thing because I mean the gold price has gone up significantly, but, our guidance range is, a 60,000-ounce range, you take the midpoints. So we've got 30,000 GEOs to the downside, if gold price went up, around 20%, I think we'd still be okay.

But, obviously it's a risk that's. Part of the way we calculate guidance, certain years you benefit when other commodities outperform gold prices, but obviously gold outperforming now it is impacting the conversion, but we did run a number of sensitivities at this stage we're comfortable with the range.

Of course, I agree. Higher gold prices is always better. In the end its revenue that really matters. It's cash flow that really matters. So I think you're correct, Sandip. Maybe moving on to Cobre Panama, Paul, as you mentioned, the international arbitration seems to be under different regimes.

And I think I noticed that your meeting is October 2026. I think first quantum had mentioned that their meetings in February 2026. Could you maybe, is there any importances that we should be aware of the different timing of the different sort of regimes that the arbitrations going under or is it pretty much the same?

I don't think there's anything to read into the timing their Cosmos. The quantum has the option of going either under the ICC, which they're going under, they could also go under the Canada-Panama free trade agreement, which is what we're going under, it's NPSA that's pursuing it under the ICC. We don't have that option.

So our only option is under the Canada Panama. The different tribunals have different time frames that they work under it's the difference in timing is just because of the different processes.

Okay. But as you said, Paul, this is really Plan B. I think your preferred alternative is to for the operator and the government to work out something on their own right?

Absolutely, that's always the best outcome.

Of course. One last question, porcupine. Could you maybe talk about how that deal came about? Clearly this is the only royalty streaming involvement in the Newmont divestitures. And so how did the parties come together with the evolution of that deal?

My other part of the question is that I see that you are providing a credit facility, Paul, as you mentioned, and an equity investment as well. More sort of full service, financing, is that the type of deal we could expect on a go forward basis or service on a go forward basis?

Hi Cosmos, it's Eaun here. I hope you having a good day. Happy to answer that that question, I guess first off in terms of how it came together, Tony Makuch, we know well a number of people in Franco-Nevada have a strong relationship with Tony, and when those assets came for sale, the obvious strategy was to work with, the ideal person to revitalize them.

And so we quickly spoke with Tony and formed a strategy together as to how we would back him in doing that, and the rest is history. We did provide multiple tranches, and I think that's what you will see going forward when we can do that, we find a suitable asset will provide flexibility because capital markets aren't always the most efficient around these kinds of things.

And when we see good ability, to get a good return for our shareholders, we'll utilize other elements of the capital structure. So it's not going to be all of what we do, but it certainly we hope it's a component going forward and we're very pleased that with the results of that transaction.

Great, those are all the questions I have. Thanks once again, Paul, Sandip and Eaun. Thank you.

Josh Wolfson, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks very much. first question on the five-year guidance, I noticed the inclusion of the underground production expansion of Candelaria and then also Taca Taca. We don't have a lot of insights as to what the production contribution could be from those opportunities. Is the company able to provide a bit more disclosure there or maybe what the volume contribution would be?

Sure. So, Candelaria underground expansion, they talked about it going from 14,000 tons per day to 22,000 tons per day. And they'll likely make a decision later this year. So we obviously we, we've made the assumption that they will go ahead with that, but they have to disclose whether they will or not.

On Taca Taca, we just thought look, looked at where first quantum is and with everything going in in Argentina, it would likely be their next project that they develop. In 2029, we've used, we've assumed a partial, ramp up it works out to about 4,000 GEOs to Franco in the total, so it's not significant.

Got it, thank you very much. And then just a couple of sort of small details. So for Paul Mulino, the disclosures talk about production declining in 2029 is the should we assume that production stays steady through 2028 versus some of the very high levels this year.

That's correct, from 2025 to 2028, it's pretty consistent, and then it's about a 50% drop in 2029.

And Josh, those operations have had a great history of being able to replace ounces. So that's what's in the mine plan today. We hope that in the interim that there'll be the ability to extend that my plan.

Got it, thank you. And one last, small housekeeping question, for Bald Mountain, and I know it's not a huge, asset in terms of the overall production. But just because the royalty has come up, pretty strongly in recent years and the royalty can vary quite a bit depending on what land is being mined for these new red bird pits, any sort of idea of what the royalty rate would be?

Off the top of my head, Josh, I can't recall. I'll have to get back to you on that.

Okay, thanks very much.

Heiko Ihle, H.C. Wainwright.

Hey there, Paul and Sandip team, thanks for taking my questions. A recent market volatility has been quite rocky. I mean, today is another fun day in the markets. It gets a bit of an open-ended question, but I mean, do you already see some impact of what's going on just? In pretty much every stock in these out there flowing down into your M&A discussions or is this essentially offset because gold's still sitting at $2,900?

I go the everyone is impacted by volatility. In some form, -- but I got to say that the gold mining industry is very fortunate. In terms of, in most places you can put the gold on a plane and fly to wherever you want and sell it wherever you want. So I'd say of all the industries it's probably the least impacted.

And it doesn't come up in in conversation where people are like, I want to get out now or soon.

No. I, certainly we haven't had any conversations like that.

Okay. A building on what you almost just answered a little bit, have there been rumblings of countries trying to, your words, put stuff on planes and get it out of there, make that a little bit tougher given what's going on GEO politically right now?

Not in the sense of operation psycho, although I'm sure you're familiar that there's been a huge movement in stocks. Particularly gold stocks of London and into the US, and I believe there's some of that happening in terms of copper stocks as well. But I haven't, other than that, I haven't heard it in any of that in other jurisdictions.

That's reassuring. I'll get back to you.

Daniel Major, UBS.

Hi there. Thanks for the question. Can you hear me, okay?

Yes.

Great, thanks. Just the first question you I think have partially answered already, but can you just run us through the delta, the key driver for the moderation in the guidance 2029 versus 2028?

Sure. Hi Daniel, Sandip here. Really the main adjustment is Guadalupe-Palmarejo, where you essentially, based on the mine plan that we have right now. And as Paul mentioned, the mine continues to be extended over time. So we're hopeful that the mine life will continue to be extended. You get a 50% drop in in GEOs, and that's essentially the drop in 2029.

Thank you. That's clear. And then, the second question, just thinking slightly bigger picture about the Spani deal and the profile that you've provided. I mean, when we look at this, kind of asset towards the upper end of the cost curve, obviously a large reserve life, but in the context of a commodity with potentially challenging longer-term fundamentals.

Ivanhoe has the plans to bring on, the plat reef towards the end of the decade. How concerned are you about the longevity of production, basis the kind of cost position of the asset and the fundamental outlook for the market.

Hi Daniel, this is Eaun Gray again. Happy to meet you. In terms of the assets, -- I actually think that when you look at the cost curve, you'll see there more towards the middle, especially when you account for five products.

Relative to the plant reef, you have very significant non-PGM byproducts coming out of the UG2 which is focused on, so things like chrome, iridium ruthenium have kind of non-catalytic uses. So that stands to benefit these operations, relatively, compared to some of the others. The infrastructure, this is a market that as I'm sure well aware, offtake of rate is very limited as to where it could go.

Barron's is fully integrated. A lot of these other operations, it's unclear whether they have all of the offtake or other things such as water. And other key elements for production that are necessary, whereas these are, very much fully integrated operations take a lot of comfort the long-term they'll be strong producers from that basket and fully integrated nature of the operations.

Okay, thanks. Thanks for that. And then just final one, in the last couple of calls, you've filled the questions and there's been some talk about, fertilizers, potash, I see acquired a small option from Brazil Potash Corp. Can you give us any sense of how advanced are you in in this segment of the market with other potential deals and how they rank relative to other opportunities out there?

Thanks. And maybe on the strategy overall, the our objective is to be to go to gold stock, and that means always the focus is on gold and Precious Metals. I always said also sometimes you can take advantage of good opportunities and other commodities when they come along.

The NPR hence we have had a diversified component over time. The opportunity with Brazil potash there is for a very low entry point. We were able to get an option to write a royalty if and when that very large potash project does get developed. I think it's a high likelihood it does. This is a very attractive deposit. It's very close to the huge agricultural area in Brazil.

It's cost advantages in terms of logistics are very substantial. So I'm very hopeful that we'll get to that option over time. Other than that, as we look at the pipeline that they're as usual, that there's a mix of what we're looking at Precious Metal and diversified, but by far the most of it is Precious metal. And so I expect that's most likely what you'll see as we go forward the next number of months.

Great, thanks so much. I'll get back in the key.

Brian MacArthur, Raymond James.

Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Most of them answered, but can I go back to the delta between '28 and '29? I get it. Guadalupe comes down and I guess you're saying it's the full 25,000 ounces. But can I confirm then on the [Antapaccay] you talk about it cutting back in 2028. Is that at the beginning of the year or is that partially through the year? I'm still trying to make up the difference between 28 and '29.

So Brian, you have a, it's partway through '28. So you'll have a full year drop in '29. So you do lose ounces from Antapaccay in 2029. So between Guadalupe and Antapaccay, you lose some ounces, and then on the other side, you've got, Copper world, you've got Taca Taca, that'll pick up some of that difference.

Great, thanks. And just on Candelaria while I'm at it, the step down from 68 to 40. Again, is that partially through the year and your assumptions in 2027 or at the beginning of the year?

A partial year.

Great. Thanks very much.

Tanya Jakusconek, Scotiabank.

Oh great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for taking my three questions. I just wanted to follow again on this guidance and a lot of it's been answered, but, maybe what, I just would like to clarify with you is that the Pomerano last year 2029. Mineway solution is gone. Is there anything else that is sort of, in the time frame, I'm not contributing, or is it, is dying out over the time frame that we should be aware of.

From a materiality standpoint, Tanya, those are the two largest.

Okay, perfect. And then you mentioned, I wanted to understand what your assumption is for still water? Because as you are aware, we have a quite a drop in 2025. And then as, go ahead.

Right. So Stillwater, as, the operator has guided, 265,000 PTM ounces for 2025. We've assumed that for three years and then it ramps back up, subsequent to that.

And get back to that 500,000 or 600,000 GEO range.

500,000.

Thank you. And then just continuing on the guidance, you mentioned the energy division is increasing over this time frame. You used to provide guidance on what the energy contribution. So if I think of, -- your 2029 or 2028 guidance, we were able to see what percentage, 79%, 80% gold or, even, 76% gold. What would you put the energy as a percentage within your '25, '28, and '29 guidance.

So I think for '25 we did disclose what the percentage would be energy. For '29, off the top of my head I'd say around 16%, 17% of GEOs.

Okay. All right, that's helpful. Thank you. And then just the final one on guidance is you mentioned that Sandy said it's going to be, stronger second half. And so we understand what about the Sibanye deal. Obviously, that's fine some mind ramp up occurring.

How should I be thinking first, half, second half? Is it a very big difference? Is it a 45%, 55%, and again, this assumes your price forecasts and assuming them to be flat without movement and commodities, but if I think of it that way, is it a 45%, 55%?

Just, numbers I've looked at, in our budgeted assumptions, I'd say it's 47%, 53%.

Okay. And is it quarter-over-quarter improvement? Should I be thinking of it that way as well?

Second quarter will be better than Q1 just because of the timing of the Sibanye, but I look to Q3 and Q4, not too far off from each other.

Okay. All right. So those are my guidance, questions. My second one has to do with, Cobre Panama. Just wanted to confirm again, is there any further discussions on the concentrate on site and whether that may be dealt with ahead of, these, decisions and or other in 2026.

Maybe Paul, is there anything on the concentrate and remind me the size of this concentrate.

Tanya, there are discussions that the company has been keen to be able to move initially what were the remaining explosives off site. Second is to move that concentrate off site. They do have an agreement. They have been able to move the explosives.

So discussions continue on the concentrate. It is one of the first things I'd like to get moving as the government gets more willing to discuss progress on the mine. In terms of the value of the concentrate, I think the value is in the order of %=$250 million. The total value concentrate.

Okay. Well, that would be good if we could at least deal with the concentrate. And then just remind me again on your security on the asset. It's you have security at the asset level, but you do not have a parent guarantee, right? Just so that I remember this correctly.

So our security, NPSA is the operating entity in Panama. So we are secured on the shares of NPSA that that operating entity as. When we look at all these deals, as any good bank will tell you, where you want to be is as close to the asset as possible. So very happy with the security structure that we have.

Okay. So the security of the asset, but you don't have a corporate guarantee, right?

We have undertakings up the chain that the various entities would ensure that the undertakings of NPSA are fulfilled, which is the usual sort of provisions that you would get from a corporate.

And maybe one thing to add, Tanya, in order to have, the arbitration directly with Panama, it's very important that you're linked directly to the asset. So in a lot of cases, if you're just a corporate obligation, you wouldn't be able to avail yourself of that type of protection. One of the benefits that.

As I said, hopefully, we don't get there. Hopefully, all of this is resolved, which is that's for everybody here. Okay, so maybe my last question, and I'll just continue on the M&A side, on the transaction side, done a lot of deals on the gold front, Potash was a smaller one.

So where do we stand now on the commodity mix of your, the deals that you are currently looking at in the market? Maybe we can just review size wise if it's still the $300 million to 500 million. Is that still the deal size and are you focused now more on Precious Metals, or have you done enough Precious Metals? So where are we on that next?

It's again. So in terms of Metals, I think Paul, alluded earlier to the fact that we're still very much focused on Precious Metals. The vast majority of what we're looking at right now is Precious Metals. It doesn't mean that there aren't good opportunities outside of that, but in terms of just the deal flow, that's primarily what we're seeing. At the moment I think it's a good time, and in terms of the complexion of the deals, what I would really say is what you saw last year is a good reflection of kind of what we're seeing now.

Last year obviously was also unprecedented in terms of total dollars that we deployed, very happy about just how active we were, and the investments that we made, but in terms of what they look like very similar, in terms of whether it's size or, reason for doing the deal.

Okay. And would it also still be for assets for development of the of assets? Is it still that so financing options for smaller companies? Is that still the case?

Absolutely, I think a core pillar of our business development efforts is project finance. I think we've got a strong team to do that. We're well placed with our balance sheet. So we continue to focus very much on trying to project financing deals.

Okay. And then I wanted to ask just on the non-gold side. You said there could be opportunities come up. Are there opportunities in the non-goal side of your business and it's so what sort of size of those potential transactions?

Certainly there are opportunities that, a range in terms of size, but probably similar to, what we've been looking at on the Precious metal side, Tanya, some are smaller, some are more, medium sized.

Okay. So that's $300 million to $500 million. Okay, and would we still continue to keep focusing on the sort of non-gold commodities that you have historically looked at or is energy back in the game? I guess what I'm asking, would you consider energy in that non-gold component? I know you have to put a pause button on it for a while.

So we're, as usual, the diversified strategy is all around being opportunistic, rather than starting with a particular commodity. So energy is the, if the right opportunities there, we would also add we've got a better room currently but nothing currently active.

Okay. Thank you so much for taking my questions. I'll let someone know. I really appreciate it. Thank you.

Martin Pradier, Veritas Investment Research.

Yes, thank you for taking my question. Can you give us some precision on what do you expect from Tocantinzinho and Ballington goal for 2025?

Sure. So for 2025, Valentine will be ramping up in the second half of the year. So it's minimal, it's, 1,500 to 2000 GEOs, token in fully ramped up, but just over 20,000 GEOs.

Okay, thank you. And I've seen a lot about the CRA, and you continue having that it's a recurring issue. What do you expect some kind of decision in the, -- in this year that this coming year?

Obviously, we're a large cap taxpayer in the view of CRA. So we are constantly audited, no different than other large cap taxpayers. Obviously, we had three audit issues outstanding two got resolved where they dropped the reassessments. We've got the transfer pricing dispute that's ongoing.

We continue to work with CRA you know what I'd like to resolve it this year absolutely but with CRA it's just a question of timing and what their views are. So we continue to move forward but no resolution at this time.

Okay, but the 2013, 2016 or something like that, isn't that part supposed to, I'm supposed them to reach a decision this year?

So you have to, -- they reassessed this, we appealed, and then you have to go through a process and work your way towards a potential court date. We're working through that process, you have to go through Discovery we've done that now it's just a case of, can you, resolve it yourselves or do you end up in court. So no decision at this time.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

John Tumazos, Very Independent Research.

Congratulations on putting a $1 billion to work and for the $55 million in Discovery so to basically double in a month, well done. If you wanted to go to the beach or fish or play golf for the rest of the year. You've done a good job for the shareholders. You earned it.

In all seriousness, could you tell us your criteria in terms of minimum rate of return, gold price, or other. So in evaluating future deals to not. Reduce the average quality of the portfolio given some of the great deals you have in hand.

And are your criteria primarily numerical quantitative or is qualitative geologic inference more important to you? Then an NPV.

John, I think you've answered the question there. The at the end of the day you've got to be invested in good oil bodies and our overall objective is to make sure that we do that and anything that we added to the portfolio is a great quality oil body.

We, -- anytime we look at a deal and our board constantly reminds us of this, whatever you put in your spreadsheet, it's not going to happen. All bodies will develop and grow over time, commodity prices will change over time. So the focus is on the quality of your bodies, getting the right ones in the portfolio. How we think about it, which is we're prepared to accept the low rate of return for what you can see today on the low bodies.

But if you pick the ones that have got the best odds of getting bigger over time, that's really where we make our return. The focus is what are your bodies with great economics that we can be very comfortable we're going to get our money back. And then what are we exposing ourselves to? What's the potential optionality, what's the multiple of our money that we can make if our hopes and dreams come true for the expansion of bodies.

In term, thank you. In terms of the new Discovery silver investment. Is it limited to exactly the land holdings bought from Newmont at closing? And the existing dumb mill. And for example, if Tony, were to buy back his old company Lake Shore Gold from Pan Am. Should we assume that's excluded from your royalty?

John, it's Eaun here. And thank you for the kind words up front on the Discovery deal, I guess first of all, what matters to us is relationships and so we are very much trying to support Tony in his efforts. And as he's alluded to the market, he has very ambitious plans for that camp, and we want to be there to support him on those. We agreed some partnership clauses in the agreement that provide us certain rights in certain circumstances. But we are, I would say, more as a kind of commercial relationship are very keen to help them.

As he looks at the one you, there are many other opportunities, not just one in the area. So we're keen to help them evaluate, how you may be able to maximize value for Discovery shareholders of which of course we are one. So it's an exciting for us.

Thank you.

Thank you. We have no further questions on the phone. I'll turn the call back over to Candida Hayden.

Thank you. Our first question comes from Bernie Peachy at Palisade Capital Management. Traditionally, Franco-Nevada has avoided investments in certain places, Russia, China, for example. The rule of law is critical. I was surprised by your investment in Sibanye-Stillwater. Africa has generally not been an area of interest for Franco-Nevada. Can you explain this decision further?

Thanks for the question there. Our objective is to be a low-risk way the investors can invest in the industry, gold and the benefit of exploration upside. The approach geopolitically is you've got to make sure that most of your assets are in great countries and we're blessed. So many assets, Canada, US, Australia, there are a lot of other, good mining countries in the world. And so we're also exposed in Chile, Peru, Brazil.

We do have assets in West Africa, and we have had assets in South Africa, in particular for many years. We've had an interest in mine waste. It wasn't planned this way, but actually, the mine waste deal has ended. It was about 20,000 ounces a year in GEOs and we're able to do this by year deal, similar amount of the long term. So our exposure to South Africa is about the same as it was previously.

South Africa is different from much of Africa. It is a very well-developed mining economy. It's got a long history. It's got a good labor force, good suppliers, and it does have a goodwill law as opposed to for mining. So in terms of the amount of exposure that we've got, roughly the $500 million, are comfortable in putting that in South Africa.

It does have its risks, and its political risks. I actually think it's on the uptick, in recent years. You had the change in government. The ANC is still leading it, but for the first time it's a government of national unity, and I think that's put some checks and balance on the ANC and there's a good level of optimism in country.

That it has, there's a change in direction in terms of the quality of government management. I think you've seen very practical results in terms of a turnaround in the past situation. And also, real good results on the ground, in terms of improving the transportation infrastructure. So quite happy with that invest in South Africa. I think it's going to do us well at the time.

Our next question is also from Bernie Picchi at Palisade Capital Management. When you say there's $250 million of concentrate on site at Cobre Panama, that you in first quantum would like to move, how much of that is yours versus first quantum’s?

I haven't done the math recently. Depends on what the gold price is at the time, obviously, but that roughly the value there, that we are due to receive is $15 million to $20 million.

Thank you, Paul. There are no further questions from the webcast. This concludes our 2024 year-end results conference call and webcast. We will host our Investor Day on Tuesday, March 25, 2025. The in-person presentation will be hosted at the Lui Experience Center in Toronto at 1 p.m. Eastern time.

The presentation will also be available to view virtually. Registration details are available on our website. We expect to release our first quarter 2025 results after market close on May 8th, with the conference call held the following morning. Thank you for your interest in Franco -Nevada. Goodbye.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.