FNB Corp (FNB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the F.N.B. Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Lisa Hajdu, Manager of Investor Relations. Ma'am? Please go ahead.

大家早安，歡迎來到 F.N.B.公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）也請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在，我想請投資者關係經理 Lisa Hajdu 發言。女士？請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our earnings call. This conference call of F.N.B. Corporation and the reported files with the Securities and Exchange Commission often contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Non-GAAP financial measures are often viewed in addition to and not as an alternative for, our reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP reporting measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our presentation materials and in our earnings release.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議。 F.N.B. 這次的電話會議本公司以及向美國證券交易委員會報告的文件通常包含前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則財務指標通常被視為我們根據公認會計原則編制的報告結果的補充，而不是替代品。我們的簡報資料和收益報告中包含了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 報告指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

Please refer to these non-GAAP and forward-looking statement disclosures contained in our related materials, reports and registration statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on our corporate website. A replay of this call will be available until Friday, January 26, and the webcast link will be posted to the webcast link will be posted to the about Us, Investor Relations section of our corporate website. I will now turn the call over to Vince Delie, Chairman, President and CEO.

請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交並可在我們公司網站上取得的相關資料、報告和註冊聲明中包含的非公認會計準則和前瞻性聲明揭露內容。本次電話會議的重播將持續到 1 月 26 日星期五，網路廣播連結將發佈到我們公司網站的「關於我們」、「投資者關係」部分。我現在將把電話轉給董事長、總裁兼執行長文斯德利 (Vince Delie)。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Vince Calabrese, our Chief Financial Officer and Gary Guerrieri, our Chief Credit Officer. F.N.B's fourth quarter net income available to common shareholders was $49 million on a reported basis and $139 million on an operating basis. Full year 2023's operating performance was highlighted by record revenue of $1.6 billion, record net income available to common shareholders of $569 million and record earnings per diluted common share of $1.57.

謝謝您，歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的是我們的財務長 Vince Calabrese 和我們的首席信貸官 Gary Guerrieri。根據報告，F.N.B 第四季普通股股東淨利潤為 4,900 萬美元，營運淨利為 1.39 億美元。 2023 年全年經營業績的亮點是創紀錄的收入 16 億美元、創紀錄的普通股股東淨利潤 5.69 億美元以及創紀錄的每股稀釋普通股收益 1.57 美元。

Tangible book value per share has increased 15% year-over-year to a record high of $9.47 per share, steadily approaching a $10 milestone. Since 2009, F.N.B's internal capital generation, representing tangible book value and dividends has been strong with 10% compounded annual growth. With this strong profitability, full year positive operating leverage totaled 1.5% and is expected to remain in the upper quartile on a peer-relative basis. F.N.B's exceptional financial performance in 2023 was a direct result of the consistent execution of our strategic initiatives.

每股有形帳面價值年增 15%，達到每股 9.47 美元的歷史新高，穩定接近 10 美元的里程碑。自 2009 年以來，F.N.B 的內部資本產生（代表有形帳面價值和股息）一直強勁，複合年增長率為 10%。憑藉強勁的獲利能力，全年正營運槓桿率總計 1.5%，預計在同業仍處於前四分位數。 F.N.B 2023 年卓越的財務表現是我們持續執行策略舉措的直接結果。

The banking disruption in the first quarter of the year placed a spotlight on the importance of balance sheet resilience including our deposit base, strong capital and liquidity position and prudent underwriting fees. It also reinforced the value of our quality customer relationships and comprehensive delivery teams. These attributes have always been integrated to F.N.B's long-term strategy, which has been proven through multiple cycles over the last decade and are ingrained in the foundation upon which F.N.B operates.

今年第一季的銀行業混亂凸顯了資產負債表彈性的重要性，包括我們的存款基礎、強勁的資本和流動性狀況以及審慎的承保費用。它也增強了我們優質客戶關係和綜合交付團隊的價值。這些屬性始終融入 F.N.B 的長期策略中，這項策略已在過去十年的多個週期中得到證明，並根植於 F.N.B 的營運基礎中。

Our commitment to maintain a stable deposit base is evidenced in our total deposits, which ended the year to $34.7 billion, unchanged from the prior year, even with the elevated competition for customer deposits. The noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposit mix ended the year at 29.4%. While we have seen customer migration away from noninterest-bearing deposits, we continue to substantially outperform our peers in the industry and our total deposit cost and overall cost of funds.

我們對維持穩定存款基礎的承諾體現在我們的存款總額中，儘管客戶存款的競爭加劇，但年底存款總額達到 347 億美元，與上年持平。截至年底，無利息存款佔存款總額的比例為 29.4%。雖然我們看到客戶逐漸遠離無利息存款，但我們的總存款成本和整體資金成本繼續大幅優於業內同業。

Our spot deposit costs ended the year below 2% and was over 50 basis points better than our peers in the third quarter. Our better-than-peer funding costs and strong liquidity provide balance sheet optionality. Our tangible common equity to tangible assets of 7.8% with the highest level in the company history and exceeds the peer medians. F.N.B remains committed to optimally deploy capital in a manner that is fully aligned with our shareholders' interest and best position F.N.B. for future success. As part of that commitment, F.N.B. recently completed the sale of approximately $650 million of available for sale securities announced the redemption of $110 million of preferred stock and transferred $355 million of indirect auto loans to held for sale with the sale expected to close in the first quarter.

我們的現貨存款成本年末低於 2%，第三季比同業高出 50 個基點以上。我們優於同業的融資成本和強大的流動性提供了資產負債表的選擇性。我們的有形普通股佔有形資產的比例為 7.8%，為公司歷史上的最高水平，超過同業中位數。 F.N.B 仍致力於以完全符合股東利益和最佳地位的方式優化資本配置 F.N.B.為了未來的成功。作為該承諾的一部分，F.N.B.最近完成了約 6.5 億美元的可供出售證券的出售，宣布贖回 1.1 億美元的優先股，並將 3.55 億美元的間接汽車貸款轉為待售，出售預計將在第一季完成。

Together, these actions resulted in a capital neutral transaction that improves forward returns and earnings with expected EPS accretion in the low single digits. Our continued ability to meet our clients' needs is critical to our performance. F.N.B. has continued to make strategic investments in our delivery team to deepen customer relationships, gain market share and further outpace our competitors. In June 2023, we introduced the eStore common application in the majority of our consumer willing products and recently introduced deposit products in December, allowing customers to apply we're up to 18 consumer deposit and loan products simultaneous.

這些行動共同促成了資本中立交易，提高了遠期回報和收益，預期每股收益成長僅為低個位數。我們持續滿足客戶需求的能力對於我們的業績至關重要。 F.N.B.持續對我們的交付團隊進行策略性投資，以加深客戶關係、獲得市場份額並進一步超越競爭對手。 2023 年 6 月，我們在大多數消費意願產品中引入了 eStore 通用應用程序，最近於 12 月推出了存款產品，允許客戶同時申請我們最多 18 種消費存款和貸款產品。

Our goal for 2024 is to bring small businesses into the fold with business loans, deposits and payments included in the common application in the eStore. These additional features further enhance the customer experience and deepen product penetration as customers can apply for multiple loan and deposit products simultaneously in a very streamlined manner, eliminating key strokes, providing a portal to upload supporting documents and automating account fund. We also made significant enhancements in our physical delivery channel in 2023.

我們 2024 年的目標是讓小型企業融入 eStore 通用應用程式中的商業貸款、存款和付款。這些附加功能進一步增強了客戶體驗並加深了產品滲透，因為客戶可以以非常簡化的方式同時申請多種貸款和存款產品，消除擊鍵，提供上傳支援文件的入口網站並自動化帳戶資金。 2023 年，我們也對實體交付管道進行了重大改進。

In addition to expanding our footprint with 4 de novo locations, we entered into a partnership with the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit that establishes F.N.B as the sole ATM provider for the third largest heavy rail system in the United States. With ATM banking services in every metro station, the partnership will add more than 120 machines to F.N.B. network in 2024. Our physical delivery channel is approaching 2,000 combined branches, ATM and interactive television. Bearing with our digital Easter, F.N.B. has significant advanced access for our current and future customers while augmenting brand awareness across our foot.

除了透過 4 個 de novo 站點擴大我們的業務範圍外，我們還與華盛頓都市區交通局建立了合作夥伴關係，使 F.N.B 成為美國第三大重軌系統的唯一 ATM 提供者。透過在每個地鐵站提供 ATM 銀行服務，此次合作將為 F.N.B. 增加 120 多台機器。網路將於 2024 年建成。我們的實體交付管道將接近 2,000 個分支機構、ATM 和互動電視。伴隨著我們的數位復活節，F.N.B.為我們目前和未來的客戶提供重要的先進通道，同時增強我們腳下的品牌知名度。

With the success of our eStore and our exceptional bankers, total loans and leases ended the year at a record $32.3 billion, an increase of $2.4 billion since year-end 2022. We are beginning the year from a strong position and will continue to closely monitor the macroeconomic environment, or market-specific trends to manage risk proactively as part of our core credit philosophy. We will remain steadfast in our approach to consistent underwriting and risk management to maintain a balanced, well-positioned portfolio throughout economic sites.

憑藉我們的電子商店和出色的銀行家的成功，年底貸款和租賃總額達到創紀錄的 323 億美元，自 2022 年底以來增加了 24 億美元。我們在新年伊始就處於有利地位，並將繼續密切關注作為我們核心信貸理念的一部分，我們根據宏觀經濟環境或市場特定趨勢主動管理風險。我們將堅定不移地堅持一致的承保和風險管理方法，以在整個經濟領域保持平衡、定位良好的投資組合。

I will now turn the call over to Gary to provide additional information on the fourth quarter's credit performance. Gary?

我現在將把電話轉給加里，以提供有關第四季度信貸表現的更多資訊。加里？

Thank you, Vince. And good morning, everyone. We ended the quarter and year-end period with our asset quality metrics remaining at solid levels. Total delinquency finished the year at 70 basis points, seasonally up 7 basis points from the end of September and down 1 basis point from the prior year-end period. NPLs and OREO decreased 2 basis points from the prior quarter and 5 bps from the 1 year ago period to end at a very good level at 34 bps.

謝謝你，文斯。大家早安。在本季和年末結束時，我們的資產品質指標仍保持在穩定水準。年末拖欠率總額為 70 個基點，比 9 月底季節性上升 7 個基點，較上年末下降 1 個基點。不良貸款和奧利奧比上一季下降了 2 個基點，比一年前下降了 5 個基點，最終達到了 34 個基點的良好水平。

Criticized loans were down 13 basis points compared to both the prior quarter and year-end with net charge-offs for the quarter and full year at 10 and 22 basis points, respectively. I'll conclude my remarks with an update on our credit risk management strategies and CRE portfolio. Total provision expense for the quarter stood at $13.2 million, providing for loan growth and charge-offs. Additionally, provision expense had a positive benefit from a reduction in criticized loans and NPLs. Our ending funded reserve increased $4.9 million in the quarter and stands at $406 million or a solid 1.25% of loans reflecting our strong position relative to our peers.

與上季和年末相比，受到批評的貸款下降了 13 個基點，本季和全年的淨沖銷分別為 10 和 22 個基點。最後，我將介紹我們的信用風險管理策略和商業房地產投資組合的最新情況。本季撥備支出總額為 1,320 萬美元，用於貸款成長和沖銷。此外，不良貸款和不良貸款的減少也為撥備支出帶來了積極的好處。我們的期末資金準備金在本季增加了 490 萬美元，達到 4.06 億美元，佔貸款的 1.25%，反映了我們相對於同業的強勢地位。

When including acquired unamortized loan discounts, our reserve stands at 1.39% and our NPL coverage position remained strong at 418% inclusive of the unamortized loan discounts. We remain committed to consistent underwriting and credit risk management to maintain a balanced well-positioned portfolio throughout economic cycles. Each quarter, we performed specific in-depth reviews of our portfolios in addition to ongoing full portfolio stress test.

當包括已獲得的未攤銷貸款折扣時，我們的準備金率為 1.39%，不良貸款覆蓋率依然強勁，為 418%（包括未攤銷貸款折扣）。我們仍然致力於一致的承保和信用風險管理，以在整個經濟週期中保持平衡、定位良好的投資組合。每個季度，除了持續的全面投資組合壓力測試外，我們還會對我們的投資組合進行具體的深入審查。

Our stress testing results for this quarter have shown lower forecasted net charge-offs and stable provision compared to the prior quarter's results, again confirming that our diversified loan portfolio enables us to withstand various economic downturn scenarios. Regarding the nonowner-occupied CRE portfolio, in 2023, we were successful in addressing maturities and the impact of the rising rate environment on the portfolio. In 2024, we will continue with the same strategy, monitoring the rate environment and proactively addressing upcoming maturities.

我們本季的壓力測試結果顯示，與上一季的結果相比，預測淨沖銷較低，撥備穩定，再次證實我們多元化的貸款組合使我們能夠抵禦各種經濟衰退情景。對於非業主自用商業房地產投資組合，我們在 2023 年成功解決了到期日和利率上升環境對投資組合的影響。 2024 年，我們將繼續採用相同的策略，監控利率環境並積極應對即將到期的問題。

At year-end, delinquency and NPLs for the nonowner-occupied CRE portfolio continued to remain very low at 32 and 18 basis points respectively, which confirms our consistent underwriting and strong sponsorship. In closing, asset quality metrics ended the year at very good levels and we are well positioned going into 2024. We continue to generate diversified loan growth in attractive markets in a competitive environment for high-quality borrowers while maintaining our consistent underwriting standards.

截至年底，非業主自用商業房地產投資組合的拖欠率和不良貸款繼續保持在非常低的水平，分別為 32 和 18 個基點，這證實了我們一貫的承銷和強有力的讚助。最後，資產品質指標在年底達到了非常好的水平，我們在進入2024 年時處於有利地位。我們繼續在優質借款人競爭激烈的環境中，在有吸引力的市場中實現多元化貸款增長，同時保持我們一貫的承保標準。

We closely monitor macroeconomic trends and the individual markets in our footprint and we'll continue to manage risk aggressively while maintaining a consistent credit profile across all of our portfolios. I will now turn the call over to Vince Calabrese, our Chief Financial Officer, for his remarks.

我們密切關注宏觀經濟趨勢和我們足跡中的各個市場，我們將繼續積極管理風險，同時在我們所有的投資組合中保持一致的信用狀況。我現在將把電話轉給我們的財務長文斯·卡拉布雷斯 (Vince Calabrese)，聽取他的演講。

Thanks, Gary. And good morning. Today I will focus on the fourth quarter's financial results. Provide additional detail on the recent actions taken to further optimize our balance sheet and offer guidance for 2024. Fourth quarter operating net income available to common shareholders totaled $139 million or $0.38 per share, excluding $114 million of significant items impacting earnings.

謝謝，加里。早安.今天我將重點放在第四季度的財務表現。請提供有關近期為進一步優化我們的資產負債表而採取的行動的更多詳細信息，並提供2024 年的指導。第四季度普通股股東可獲得的營業淨利潤總計1.39 億美元，即每股0.38美元，不包括影響收益的1.14 億美元的重要項目。

On a full year basis, operating earnings totaled a record $1.57 per share. Tangible book value totaled $9.47, 15% increase from December 2022. Part of our ongoing proactive balance sheet management strategy, we took several actions to enhance future profitability and capital positioning. Late in the fourth quarter, we sold approximately $650 million of available-for-sale investment securities, transferred $355 million of indirect auto loans to held for sale and announced a redemption of $110 million of the Series T preferred stock that was issued 10 years ago.

全年營業利潤總計達到創紀錄的每股 1.57 美元。有形帳面價值總計 9.47 美元，較 2022 年 12 月成長 15%。作為我們持續主動的資產負債表管理策略的一部分，我們採取了多項行動來提高未來的獲利能力和資本定位。在第四季末，我們出售了約 6.5 億美元的可供出售投資證券，將 3.55 億美元的間接汽車貸款轉為持有待售，並宣布贖回 10 年前發行的 1.1 億美元 T 系列優先股。

The cumulative impact of these balance sheet actions generate incremental earnings has a tangible book value earn-back period of less than 1 year versus an earn-back of 5 years for stock buyback, while retaining capital flexibility in 2024. The sale of investment securities resulted in a realized loss of $67.4 million in the fourth quarter as we sold securities yielding 108 on average, and reinvested the proceeds into securities with yields approximately 350 basis points higher with similar duration and convexity profiles.

這些資產負債表行動的累積影響產生增量收益，有形帳面價值回盈期不到 1 年，而股票回購的回盈期為 5 年，同時保留 2024 年的資本彈性。投資證券的出售導致第四季實現虧損6,740 萬美元，因為我們出售了平均收益率為108 的證券，並將收益再投資於收益率高出約350 個基點且久期和凸度特徵相似的證券。

We recorded a $16.7 million negative fair value mark and other noninterest expense on the indirect auto loans classified as held for sale at December 31, reflecting changes in interest rates from the time of origination. The sale of these loans is expected to close during the first quarter with the proceeds being used to repay borrowings to have a similar yield to the sold loans. Our year-end loan-to-deposit ratio benefited by approximately 100 basis points.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們記錄了分類為持有待售的間接汽車貸款的 1,670 萬美元負公允價值標記和其他非利息費用，反映了自發放時起的利率變化。這些貸款的出售預計將在第一季完成，所得款項將用於償還借款，以獲得與已售貸款類似的收益率。年末貸存比提高了約 100 個基點。

Excluding the $355 million of held-for-sale indirect auto loans, underlying period-end loan growth was 8% since year-end 2022. Fourth quarter loan production reflected high-quality loans across our diverse footprint with quarterly commercial loan growth of $351 million and consumer loan growth of $178 million. Investment portfolio remained essentially flat linked quarter at $7.2 billion inclusive of the securities portfolio restructuring. There remains a fairly even split between AFS and HTM with 45% in available for sale at the end of the year. The duration of our securities portfolio at December 31 is 4.2 years similar to last quarter.

不包括 3.55 億美元的待售間接汽車貸款，自 2022 年底以來基本期末貸款增長率為 8%。第四季度貸款生產反映了我們多元化業務的高品質貸款，季度商業貸款增長了 3.51 億美元消費貸款成長1.78 億美元。包括證券投資組合重組在內，投資組合季度環比基本持平，為 72 億美元。 AFS 和 HTM 之間的比例仍然相當均勻，年底可出售的比例為 45%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的證券投資組合久期為 4.2 年，與上季相似。

Total deposits ended the year at $34.7 billion, slight increase of $96 million linked quarter. As of December 31, noninterest-bearing deposits comprised 29.4% of total deposits compared to 30.9% at September 30. Given our granular stable deposit base, we believe we will continue to outperform the industry with a favorable mix of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits and lower deposit costs, which meaningfully outperformed the peers as our team remains actively focused on managing deposit mix.

年終存款總額為 347 億美元，環比小幅增加 9,600 萬美元。截至12 月31 日，無利息存款佔存款總額的29.4%，而9 月30 日則為30.9%。鑑於我們穩定的存款基礎，我們相信我們將繼續跑贏行業，以有利的無息存款佔總存款的比例存款和較低的存款成本，這明顯優於同行，因為我們的團隊仍然積極專注於管理存款組合。

With our spot deposit costs ending the year at [193], our cumulative deposit beta totaled 34.3%, in line with our expectations discussed last quarter. Fourth quarter's net interest margin was 3.21% with decline of only 5 basis points, which is better than our expectations discussed last quarter. The yield on earning assets increased 14 basis points to 5.25% due to higher yields on both loans and investment securities. Total cost of funds increased 21 basis points to 2.14% as the cost of interest-bearing deposits increased 29 basis points to 2.65%. Net interest income totaled $324 million, a slight decrease of $2.6 million from the prior quarter.

截至年底，我們的現貨存款成本為 [193]，我們的累計存款貝塔係數總計 34.3%，與我們上季度討論的預期一致。第四季淨利差為3.21%，僅下降5個基點，優於我們上季討論的預期。由於貸款和投資證券的收益率上升，生息資產收益率上升 14 個基點至 5.25%。總資金成本上升 21 個基點至 2.14%，其中計息存款成本上升 29 個基點至 2.65%。淨利息收入總計3.24億美元，較上季小幅減少260萬美元。

Turning to noninterest income and expense. Operating noninterest income totaled $80.4 million and adjusting for the $67.4 million realized loss on the investment securities restructuring. Mortgage banking operations income increased $3.1 million linked quarter due to improved gain on sale margins aided by the decline in mortgage rates in the fourth quarter. Other noninterest income declined $2.4 million and small business investment company funds came from decreased reflecting normal fluctuations based on the performance of the underlying portfolio of companies.

轉向非利息收入和支出。營業非利息收入總計 8,040 萬美元，並對投資證券重組實現的 6,740 萬美元損失進行調整。由於第四季抵押貸款利率下降，銷售利潤率提高，抵押貸款銀行業務收入較上季增加了 310 萬美元。其他非利息收入減少了 240 萬美元，小型企業投資公司資金的減少反映了基於​​公司基礎投資組合績效的正常波動。

Additionally, we broke out our service charge fee income line on the income statement into service charges and a new line item for interchange and card transaction foods, which was previously captured in the service charge line. This will create better transparency into our various revenue streams in noninterest income. Operating noninterest expense, $218.9 million was relatively stable compared to the prior quarter when adjusting for the fair value mark on the held for sale in direct auto loans of $16.7 million and the $29.9 million FDIC special assessment related to replenishment of the deposit insurance fund for the bank failures.

此外，我們將損益表上的服務費收入項目分解為服務費和一個新的項目，用於交換和卡交易食品，該項目之前已在服務費項目中捕獲。這將為我們的非利息收入的各種收入來源創造更好的透明度。調整直接汽車貸款持有待售公允價值標記 1,670 萬美元以及與補充存款保險基金相關的 FDIC 特別評估 2,990 萬美元後，營運非利息支出為 2.189 億美元，與上一季相比相對穩定。銀行倒閉。

The linked quarter increase in outside services of $2.4 million reflects higher third-party costs. Bank shares and franchise taxes defined $2.3 million, reflecting charitable contributions that qualifies the Pennsylvania bank shares tax credits and marketing expenses decreased $1.2 million due to the timing of digital marketing campaigns in the third quarter. The fourth quarter efficiency ratio of 52.5% continues to be in the top quartile of our peers. Efficiency ratio of 51.2% on a full year basis demonstrates our commitment to effectively managing costs while growing our diverse revenue streams.

外部服務的相關季度成長 240 萬美元反映了第三方成本的增加。銀行股票和特許經營稅定義為 230 萬美元，反映了符合賓州銀行股票稅收抵免資格的慈善捐款，並且由於第三季度數位行銷活動的時間安排，行銷費用減少了 120 萬美元。第四季效率為 52.5%，繼續位居同業前四分之一。全年效率率為 51.2%，這表明我們致力於有效管理成本，同時增加多樣化的收入來源。

We ended the year with our capital ratios, some of the strongest levels in recent history. Our CET1 ratio of 10.1%, which includes the impact of the previously discussed balance sheet management items and the FDIC special assessment remains above our stated operating target. Tangible common equity totaled 7.8% when excluding the 54 basis point impact of AOCI, will equal 8.3%. Tangible book value per common share was $9.47 at December 31, an increase of $0.45 per share from September 30. AOCI reduced the tangible book value per common share by $0.65 as of year-end compared to $1.06 last quarter, primarily due to the impact of interest rates on the fair value of available-for-sale securities.

今年結束時，我們的資本比率達到了近期歷史上最高的水平。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.1%，其中包括先前討論的資產負債表管理項目和 FDIC 特別評估的影響，仍然高於我們規定的營運目標。有形普通股總計 7.8%，若排除 AOCI 54 個基點的影響，則相當於 8.3%。截至12 月31 日，每股普通股有形帳面價值為9.47 美元，較9 月30 日增加了0.45 美元。截至年底，AOCI 將每股普通股有形帳面價值較上季的1.06 美元減少了0.65 美元，主要是由於可供出售證券公允價值的利率。

Because the investment securities that were sold in December were in available for sale, the realized loss did not incrementally impact TCE or tangible book value since the market value is already reflected in AOCI. Let's now look at the 2024 guidance for both the first quarter and the full year, starting with the balance sheet. On a full year spot basis, we expect loans to grow mid-single digits as we continue to increase our market share across our diverse geographic footprint. Total projected deposit balances are expected to grow low single digits on a year-over-year spot basis.

由於 12 月出售的投資證券可供出售，因此已實現的損失不會逐漸影響 TCE 或有形帳面價值，因為市場價值已反映在 AOCI 中。現在讓我們從資產負債表開始，看看 2024 年第一季和全年的指引。從全年現貨來看，隨著我們在不同地理區域不斷擴大市場份額，我們預計貸款將實現中個位數成長。預計存款餘額總額預計將年增率較低的個位數。

Full year net interest income is expected to be between $1.295 billion and $1.345 billion with the first quarter of 2024 between $318 million and $328 million. Our guidance assumes 325 basis point rate cuts aligning with the (inaudible) , which we are projecting to occur in May, July and November 2024. Noninterest income is expected to continue to benefit from our diversified fee-based income strategy with the full year results between $325 million to $345 million and the first quarter between $80 million and $85 million.

預計全年淨利息收入將在 12.95 億美元至 13.45 億美元之間，2024 年第一季將在 3.18 億美元至 3.28 億美元之間。我們的指引假設降息325 個基點，與（聽不清楚）一致，我們預計降息將在2024 年5 月、7 月和11 月發生。預計非利息收入將繼續受益於我們的多元化收費收入策略，全年結果如下3.25 億美元至 3.45 億美元之間，第一季為 8,000 萬美元至 8,500 萬美元之間。

Full year guidance for noninterest expense is expected to be between $895 million and $915 million, which includes the impact of approximately $6 million of rent expense during the build-out phase of our new headquarters, while we still occupy our current office space.

全年非利息支出指引預計在 8.95 億美元至 9.15 億美元之間，其中包括新總部擴建階段約 600 萬美元租金支出的影響，同時我們仍佔用現有辦公空間。

Adjusting for this impact, the midpoint of our expense guidance results in a 3.7% increase from 2023 operating expense levels. The first quarter noninterest expense is expected to be between $225 million and $230 million as the compensation expense is higher in the first quarter largely due to normal seasonal long-term stock compensation and higher payroll taxes at the start of the new year. Full year provision guidance is $80 million to $100 million, and is dependent on net loan growth and charge-off activity.

根據此影響進行調整後，我們的費用指導中位數導致 2023 年營運費用水準增加 3.7%。第一季非利息支出預計在 2.25 億美元至 2.3 億美元之間，因為第一季的補償支出較高，主要是由於正常的季節性長期股票補償和新年伊始工資稅上漲。全年撥備指引為 8,000 萬至 1 億美元，取決於淨貸款成長和沖銷活動。

Lastly, the full year effective tax rate should be between 21% and 22%, which does not assume any investment tax credit activity that may occur. With that, I will turn the call back to Vince.

最後，全年有效稅率應在21%至22%之間，這不假設可能發生任何投資稅收抵免活動。這樣，我會將電話轉回給文斯。

During 2023, F.N.B. completed a number of initiatives that align with our strategic priorities including introducing the eStore common applications for consumer loans and deposit products expanding our physical delivery channel and investing in systems and processes that enable us to streamline operations. We continue to expand our data analytics capability and the use of AI to improve performance.

2023 年期間，F.N.B.完成了一系列符合我們策略重點的舉措，包括推出消費貸款和存款產品的 eStore 通用應用程序，擴大我們的實體交付管道，以及投資於使我們能夠簡化營運的系統和流程。我們繼續擴展我們的數據分析能力和人工智慧的使用來提高效能。

These strategic initiatives have directly contributed to our peer relative outperformance in 2023 amidst the banking industry disruption with the company generating record operating EPS of $1.57 and strong organic loan growth of $2.4 billion. Deposit balances remained flat with noninterest-bearing deposits comprising 29% to 34% of total deposits and a top quartile cost of products. We have completed over $75 million in cost savings over the last 5 years, excluding the acquisition synergies, leading to positive operating leverage and an efficiency ratio in the top quartile relative to peers at 51.2%.

這些戰略舉措直接促成了我們在銀行業混亂的情況下在 2023 年實現相對於同行的優異表現，該公司實現了創紀錄的 1.57 美元運營每股收益和 24 億美元的強勁有機貸款增長。存款餘額持平，無利息存款佔存款總額的 29% 至 34%，產品成本位居前四分之一。在過去5 年裡，我們已經節省了超過7,500 萬美元的成本（不包括收購協同效應），從而實現了積極的營運槓桿，並且相對於同業的效率比率達到了51.2%，位居前四分之一。

Operating return on average tangible common equity totaled 18%, intangible book value grew 15% to a record $9.37. Our asset quality continues to be a strength as we ended the year at or near historically low levels. This year's exceptional performance was made possible by our employees. Their commitment to F.N.B's mission and values drive success for all of our stakeholders. In 2023, our team's efforts were evident as F.N.B. received more than 30 prestigious awards. Multiple independent organizations recognized F.N.B's financial performance, outstanding culture and innovative technology with eStore earnings international.

有形普通股平均營運報酬率為 18%，無形帳面價值成長 15%，達到創紀錄的 9.37 美元。我們的資產品質仍然是一個優勢，年底時我們的資產品質處於或接近歷史低點。今年的出色表現得益於我們的員工。他們對 F.N.B 使命和價值觀的承諾推動了我們所有利害關係人的成功。 2023 年，我們團隊的努力有目共睹，F.N.B.獲得30多個著名獎項。多個獨立組織透過 eStore 獲利國際認可了 F.N.B 的財務表現、傑出文化和創新技術。

We believe that these honors and our performance are a direct result of our engaging and rewarding workplace environment. I am proud of what we've built together. Thank you.

我們相信，這些榮譽和我們的表現是我們充滿吸引力和回報的工作環境的直接結果。我為我們共同創造的一切感到自豪。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Daniel Tamayo from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Daniel Tamayo。

Maybe we start on the impact of the balance or restructuring on the margin. I appreciate the guidance for 2024. But just as we think about the impact on -- in the first quarter, curious if you can walk through how you're thinking about the impact of the restructuring, looking at it as a 5 or 6 basis point impact relative to kind of just continued deposit pressure and then how that the path of the margin moves throughout the year in your assumptions?

也許我們首先要考慮平衡或重組對利潤的影響。我很欣賞 2024 年的指導。但正如我們思考第一季的影響一樣，我很好奇您是否可以詳細說明您如何看待重組的影響，並將其視為 5 或 6 的基礎相對於持續的存款壓力的點影響，那麼在您的假設中，保證金的路徑全年變化如何？

Yes, I would say a couple of things. First of all, if we look at the fourth quarter, to go forward, net interest income only declined $2.6 million linked quarter, which was the same as the prior quarter. The NIM compression for the quarter was only 5 basis points. Last quarter was 11. In fact, November and December, we're at (inaudible). So the level kind of stabilized there, at least for those 2 months. The restructuring is fully baked into our guidance that we provided.

是的，我想說幾件事。首先，如果我們看一下第四季度，展望未來，淨利息收入僅下降 260 萬美元，與上一季持平。本季的淨利差壓縮僅 5 個基點。上個季度是 11 月。事實上，我們正​​處於 11 月和 12 月（聽不清楚）。所以至少在這兩個月裡，水準已經穩定下來了。此次重組已完全納入我們提供的指導中。

As far as the past with the margin here, I would still say what we said last quarter that probably bottomed somewhere in the first half of the year and then some slight improvement from there as far as when you get into the second half of the year. But there's a lot to happen right, with the Fed cut. And we have 3 Fed cuts in ours, there's 3, 4 or 5. The 3 felt most reasonable to us. That's what's baked into our guidance with the benefit of the restructuring. And as we have over time, we'll continue to actively go after demand deposits, we're going to focus here.

就過去的利潤率而言，我仍然會說我們上個季度所說的，可能在上半年某個地方觸底，然後到下半年時會略有改善。但隨著聯準會降息，還有很多事情要發生。我們有 3 次聯準會降息，有 3、4 或 5 次。我們覺得 3 次最合理。這就是我們透過重組而納入指導的內容。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續積極追求活期存款，我們將重點關注這裡。

I think our percentage of total deposits has performed very well relative to the peers and the changes in that bucket have also kind of stacked up very well. So the NII guide kind of has everything baked into it, Dan.

我認為，相對於同行，我們佔總存款的百分比表現非常好，而且該類別的變化也累積得很好。所以 NII 指南已經包含了所有內容，丹。

No, I understand and I appreciate that. I guess another way of asking, maybe do you think the deposit pressure in the first quarter offsets the -- I mean, it sounds like you're saying we still maybe get more compression in the first quarter on an overall basis. So you think that offsets more than offset the balance sheet restructuring and that just continues in the first half in the first quarter?

不，我理解並且很感激。我想用另一種方​​式問，也許你認為第一季的存款壓力抵消了——我的意思是，聽起來你是說我們在第一季總體上可能仍然會受到更多的壓縮。因此，您認為這抵消了資產負債表重組帶來的影響，而這種情況在第一季上半年持續了？

Well, we're not going to specifically comment on margins for the quarter, right? The net interest income as all of that baked in. The mix shift that has happened during the quarter, we've continued to see customers going after higher rate products and just natural. People are sitting here feeling like, okay, the Fed is at the top, average rate since July when are they going to start to cut. So there's definitely been some of that mix shift still occurring.

好吧，我們不會具體評論本季的利潤率，對吧？淨利息收入隨著所有這些的融入而發生。本季發生的混合轉變，我們繼續看到客戶追求更高利率的產品，這是很自然的。人們坐在這裡感覺，好吧，聯準會處於自 7 月以來的最高平均利率，他們什麼時候開始降息。所以肯定有一些混合轉變仍在發生。

In the first quarter, our demand deposit, that's usually our weakest quarter seasonally because of municipal deposits to kind of bottom and then build up. So all of that does put some pressure on the margin and then the restructuring helps to offset some of those impacts in the first quarter, probably one way that I could comment on that.

在第一季度，我們的活期存款通常是季節性最弱的季度，因為市政存款觸底然後增加。因此，所有這些確實給利潤率帶來了一些壓力，然後重組有助於抵消第一季的一些影響，這可能是我對此發表評論的一種方式。

Got it. Okay. I guess just lastly, just digging on the balance sheet sensitivity side. Just curious how we should be thinking about you mentioned bottoming in the middle of the year. I think in the past, we've talked about maybe being liability sensitive in the medium term but maybe asset sensitive in the near term with rate cuts.

知道了。好的。我想最後，只是挖掘資產負債表敏感性方面。只是好奇我們該如何看待你提到的年中觸底。我認為過去，我們討論過中期可能對負債敏感，但近期可能會因降息而對資產敏感。

That still how we should be thinking about it, perhaps some negative impact early on? And then maybe after a few quarters, that's when you start to benefit more from rate cuts?

那我們仍然應該如何思考它，也許早期會產生一些負面影響？然後也許幾個季度之後，你就開始從降息中受益更多？

Yes. So that's definitely the right way to think about it. The sensitivity, whether we get additional cuts beyond the 3 as you know, there's a lot of moving parts to this question. And there are actions we may take depending on the economic environment. So but as you described the time frame is key, right? In the short run, you have a negative impact particularly from the cluster and an additional cut and then I think the deposit lags will catch up over time.

是的。所以這絕對是正確的思考方式。敏感性，正如你所知，我們是否會在 3 次之外進行額外的削減，這個問題有很多變化的部分。我們可能會根據經濟環境採取一些行動。所以，正如您所描述的，時間框架是關鍵，對嗎？從短期來看，你會產生負面影響，特別是來自集群和額外削減，然後我認為存款滯後會隨著時間的推移而彌補。

I mean, historically, if you look at our beta today, right, we're around 34%. In the last upgrade cycle, we kind of maxed out at 35%. It seems reasonable to assume that. But that would take kind of more in the medium term, longer term to catch back probably the medium term on the deposit rate lags to catch up and have that benefit. And as you know, we've taken a lot of actions. I mean the CD book has been growing in the shorter term 7- and 13-month type area. Our total average maturity of the CD portfolio right now is 10 months.

我的意思是，從歷史上看，如果你看看我們今天的測試版，我們的比例約為 34%。在上一個升級週期中，我們達到了 35% 的上限。這樣的假設似乎是合理的。但這需要更多的中期內、更長期的時間才能恢復，存款利率的中期內可能會滯後才能趕上並獲得這種好處。如您所知，我們已經採取了很多行動。我的意思是，CD 書在短期 7 個月和 13 個月類型區域一直在增長。目前我們 CD 投資組合的總平均期限為 10 個月。

So there's opportunity there to reprice that as we go forward. Think of with the timing of when the Fed would move but yes, I think that's -- we're still slightly asset sensitive and really philosophically managing to neutral and then we think that -- if you look at our margin path for the year, it kind of more neutral with the expected 3 cuts that we have baked in.

因此，隨著我們的前進，有機會重新定價。想想聯準會何時採取行動，但是是的，我認為，我們仍然對資產略有敏感，並且在哲學上確實管理到中性，然後我們認為，如果你看看我們今年的利潤率路徑，與我們預期的3 次削減相比，它更加中性。

Okay. Great. Appreciate it.

好的。偉大的。欣賞它。

Our next question comes from Frank Schiraldi from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Frank Schiraldi。

Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the dynamics of loan growth versus deposit growth here. And you obviously your guide as you getting closer to 100% loan to deposit over time. Just trying to think through what might be the main governor on loan growth here and how you're bringing deposit dollars in the door. In what continues to be a pretty competitive environment.

只是想知道您是否可以在這裡談談貸款成長與存款成長的動態。隨著時間的推移，當您的貸存比接近 100% 時，您顯然會成為您的嚮導。只是想想一下，什麼可能是這裡貸款成長的主要調控者，以及如何將存款美元帶進來。在仍然充滿競爭的環境中。

Yes. I think let me start out and then I can turn it over to Vince Calabrese. First of all, I think some of the things that we talked about in the prepared comments relative to acquiring appliance is a way for us to drive deposit balances. I mean adding the ability to simultaneously open a deposit account with a loan application without additional key strokes. That's huge for us.

是的。我想讓我開始，然後我可以把它交給文斯卡拉布雷斯。首先，我認為我們在準備好的評論中討論的有關購買設備的一些事情是我們推動存款餘額的一種方式。我的意思是增加在申請貸款的同時開設存款帳戶的功能，而無需額外敲擊鍵盤。這對我們來說意義重大。

So I think that will help once the field starts utilizing these tools and customers start engaging online and realize that they can do that, it will increase our probability of capturing more of the client relationship, particularly the deposit side. So when the loan request comes in, we'll be able to act a little more quickly on opening the deposit accounts. So that's one thing that we planned for and we think will help us as we move forward.

因此，我認為，一旦該領域開始使用這些工具並且客戶開始在線參與並意識到他們可以做到這一點，這將會有所幫助，這將增加我們獲得更多客戶關係的可能性，特別是存款方面。因此，當收到貸款請求時，我們將能夠更快地開設存款帳戶。這是我們計劃的一件事，我們認為這將有助於我們前進。

If you look at engagement with the eStore, we looked at -- we've rolled that out about midyear. So if you look at the 6 months in '22 versus the 6 months in '23 in the same period. When you compare the number of applications that we were able to obtain online, they doubled -- we doubled the number of consumer loan applications. That's without the deposit account opening capability by the way. And 30% of those clients -- 30% of those applications were with non-F.N.B customers. So that's one piece of it. The enhancement of the digital strategy.

如果你看看 eStore 的參與度，我們會看到——我們已經在年中推出了它。因此，如果你看看同一時期 22 年的 6 個月與 23 年的 6 個月。當你比較我們能夠在線上獲得的申請數量時，你會發現它們翻了一番——我們將消費貸款申請的數量翻了一番。順便說一句，這還沒有開立存款帳戶的能力。其中 30% 的客戶——其中 30% 的應用程式來自非 F.N.B 客戶。這就是其中的一部分。數位化戰略強化。

The second opportunity for us is really in small business and middle market banking on the TM side. We've invested pretty heavily in our treasury management capabilities. We have some product capabilities coming online. We mentioned that we're going to bundle products in the small business space in '24, probably towards the latter half of the year, we'll be rolling that out. That will also help us grow deposit balances. And if you look at what we've done historically, we've historically grown deposit balances around the 10% -- 8% to 10% range organically.

我們的第二個機會實際上是在 TM 方面的小型企業和中型市場銀行業務。我們在資金管理能力方面投入了大量資金。我們有一些產品功能即將上線。我們提到我們將在 24 年在小型企業領域捆綁產品，可能是在今年下半年，我們將推出這項計畫。這也將有助於我們增加存款餘額。如果你看看我們過去所做的事情，你會發現我們的存款餘額一直在 10% 至 8% 到 10% 的範圍內有機增長。

So I think we've kept pace with the organic loan growth that we've achieved, which is similar right, over a long period of time. And I think some of the things that we've done strategically and entering into new markets that have more opportunities because of population growth and business formation. We're going to be able to continue to keep our objective, which is to fund our loan growth with the deposit balances that for new customers. I don't know, Vince, do you want to add anything numeric?

因此，我認為我們在很長一段時間內與所實現的有機貸款成長保持同步，這也是類似的。我認為我們策略性地做了一些事情，並進入了新市場，這些市場由於人口成長和業務形成而擁有更多機會。我們將能夠繼續保持我們的目標，即用新客戶的存款餘額為我們的貸款成長提供資金。我不知道，文斯，你想添加任何數字嗎？

Yes. No, all I would add, Frank, is that we don't get all the way to 100% within our guidance. We're in that 95%, 96%, 97% kind of area as you kind of forecast it out. But as we've done in the past, historically, when we got to 97%, going back a bunch of years, we took action this quarter selling the indirect auto loans creates more shelf space for us.

是的。不，弗蘭克，我要補充的是，我們並沒有完全達到 100% 的目標。正如您所預測的那樣，我們處於 95%、96%、97% 的區域。但正如我們過去所做的那樣，從歷史上看，當我們達到97% 時，可以追溯到很多年前，我們在本季度採取了行動，出售間接汽車貸款，為我們創造了更多的貨架空間。

I mean, that gave us a 1% in the loan deposit ratio. So we will manage that level. We won't go all the way to 100%. We're in the mid-90s what's baked into the guidance, as I mentioned, we'll start to manage. We get to 95%. We'll look at what's the environment? How fast are loans growing and what things action as we always have, just kind of manage.

我的意思是，這給了我們 1% 的貸款存款比率。所以我們將管理這個水平。我們不會一路走到100%。正如我所提到的，我們正處於 90 年代中期，我們將開始管理指南中的內容。我們達到了 95%。我們看看環境怎麼樣？貸款成長的速度有多快，以及我們一貫採取的行動，只是進行管理。

For us, it's not a function -- it's not a question as to whether or not we can fund our balance sheet with deposit growth. We can do that. And we have the capability of doing it, it would just be a margin or over, right? So we're trying to balance it all out right. We very confident to growth to price up. We want to compete with everybody else out there, prices up our CDs and our money market rates, we could bring a lot of money in it.

對我們來說，這不是一個函數——這不是我們能否透過存款成長為我們的資產負債表提供資金的問題。我們能做到這一點。我們有能力做到這一點，這只是一個餘量或超過，對嗎？所以我們正在努力平衡這一切。我們對成長以提高價格非常有信心。我們想與其他人競爭，提高我們的 CD 價格和貨幣市場利率，我們可以從中賺到很多錢。

We brought in $1.3 billion in new money. I mean, we -- back half of the year, it's a function of trying to manage it all so that we maintain relative profitability. Our goal is to outperform. So we're -- we're not trying to give everything away for balloon our balance sheet. We understand what our funding constraints could potentially be. And the trade-off is margin. So we have to be getting it on the other side with the loan originations to justify it. That's how we look at it.

我們引進了 13 億美元的新資金。我的意思是，我們——今年下半年，我們試圖管理這一切，以便我們保持相對的獲利能力。我們的目標是超越。因此，我們並不想為了擴大資產負債表而放棄一切。我們了解我們可能面臨的資金限制。權衡是保證金。因此，我們必須透過貸款發放來證明其合理性。我們就是這樣看的。

Sure. No. Understood. That's great color. And then I guess just a follow-up there, Vince, you mentioned the making some room with the small sale of the loans. Obviously, you're always thinking about balance sheet optimization, but that being said, just wonder if this is -- if you see more opportunities here in the near term to do just that, maybe Jed assumes some smaller pieces that, for whatever reason, the total returns not there.

當然。不，明白了。那顏色真棒。然後我想只是後續行動，文斯，你提到透過小額出售貸款來騰出一些空間。顯然，你總是在考慮資產負債表優化，但話雖如此，只是想知道這是否是- 如果你在短期內看到更多這樣做的機會，也許傑德會假設一些較小的部分，無論出於何種原因，總回報不存在。

Is that a way in the near term to continue to hold the loan-to-deposit ratio where it is? Or is it -- or do you see this as more of like a one and done in the near term?

這是短期內繼續將貸存比維持在現有水準的方法嗎？還是——或者你認為這更像是短期內完成的事情？

Yes. We spent a lot of time during the fourth quarter, sizing what we wanted to do as far as the amount of securities and the amount of the loans that we felt. So we don't have any plans to do any additional sales as we're sitting here today. I think we refine like Vince said, we have the ability to fund and grow the deposits we've done it forever. So at this point, I wouldn't say one and done forever, right, because we're always studying the balance sheet. And if there's opportunities, we'll look at it, but there were no plans right now. Like I said, we spent a lot of time sizing it and came up with what we executed on.

是的。我們在第四季度花了很多時間來確定我們想要做的事情，包括我們認為的證券數量和貸款數量。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們沒有任何計劃進行任何額外的銷售。我認為我們像文斯所說的那樣精煉，我們有能力提供資金並增加存款，我們已經做到了這一點。所以在這一點上，我不會說一勞永逸，對吧，因為我們一直在研究資產負債表。如果有機會，我們會考慮，但現在還沒有計劃。就像我說的，我們花了很多時間來評估它並提出我們要執行的內容。

If the rate environment enables us to unload loan-yielding assets, and we get a gain, and we can roll that into something else. Sure. We've done that historically. We've sold over $1 billion over the years. So we'll look selectively, Frank. And we constantly look at the balance sheet. Our objective is to produce the highest returns possible. And we'll look at opportunities to get out, particularly with indirect auto, the limited relationship, right?

如果利率環境使我們能夠拋售貸款收益資產，並且獲得收益，我們就可以將其轉入其他領域。當然。我們歷史上就這麼做過。多年來我們的銷售額已超過 10 億美元。所以我們會選擇性地尋找，弗蘭克。我們不斷查看資產負債表。我們的目標是產生盡可能最高的回報。我們將尋找退出的機會，特別是間接汽車，有限的關係，對吧？

I mean, we'll look at that and we'll trade out of it or we'll pare it back, right? We used pricing mechanisms to move the portfolio around, right? And we'll see. It's all a function of what the interest rate environment is, what demand looks like in higher-yielding categories. What the risk profile of the balance sheet looks like. We take all of that into consideration and make decisions based on that. But our plan is to manage in the range from a loan-to-deposit perspective that we have historically. We're not looking to move outside of that.

我的意思是，我們會看看這個，然後我們會進行交易，或者我們會削減它，對吧？我們使用定價機制來調整投資組合，對嗎？我們拭目以待。這完全取決於利率環境以及高收益類別的需求。資產負債表的風險狀況是什麼樣的。我們會考慮所有這些並據此做出決定。但我們的計劃是從我們歷史上的貸存角度來管理。我們不打算超越這一點。

Yes. I would just say, too, Frank. We're not -- we don't feel constrained as far as loan growth that we would want to go after. I mean mid-high single digits that we've done -- we can do that -- we've done things like Vince is describing. And then like in the mortgage business, we've adjusted our pricing a little bit there to make more saleable products. So we're kind of reducing the amount of growth that's going on to the balance sheet, which is kind of part of how we manage the balance sheet. So there is a lot of different levers there.

是的。我也想說，法蘭克。就我們想要追求的貸款成長而言，我們並沒有感到受到限制。我的意思是我們已經做到了中高個位數——我們可以做到——我們已經做了像文斯描述的那樣的事情。然後就像抵押貸款業務一樣，我們稍微調整了定價，以生產更暢銷的產品。因此，我們正在減少資產負債表的成長量，這是我們管理資產負債表的一部分。所以那裡有很多不同的槓桿。

Great.

偉大的。

Our next question comes from Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Timur Braziler。

Maybe starting Vince Delie, you had made a comment positive operating leverage in '23 look to be in the top quartile in operating leverage going forward. Does that put positive operating leverage on the table for '24? Or is the revenue backdrop challenging enough or that's more likely not going to happen next year?

也許從 Vince Delie 開始，您曾評論過 23 年積極的營運槓桿，預計未來營運槓桿將躋身前四分之一。這是否會為 24 年帶來積極的營運槓桿？或者收入背景是否足夠具有挑戰性，或者明年更有可能不會發生這種情況？

Yes. I think as we move through this interest rate cycle, it becomes more challenging, obviously, right, because you're seeing declining revenue and your expense base is pretty much fixed. So we've taken expense out, but it's hard to do. I think the second half of the year, I certainly would expect us to go produce positive operating leverage.

是的。我認為，當我們經歷這個利率週期時，顯然，它變得更具挑戰性，因為你會看到收入下降，而你的支出基礎幾乎是固定的。所以我們已經扣除了費用，但這很難做到。我認為今年下半年，我當然希望我們能夠產生積極的營運槓桿。

So as we move through that inflection point that Vince spoke about earlier, right, the margin compression with the rate cuts, we should be able to move through that and into the second half of the year, experience positive operating leverage. If you look at F.N.B. on a full year basis in 2023, we outperformed others, right, because we produced full year operating leverage. There was negative operating leverage all over the place, at least based on what I saw. So I think I would expect us to do everything we can to be in a similar position in '24.

因此，當我們度過文斯之前提到的拐點（右），即降息導致利潤率壓縮時，我們應該能夠度過這個拐點並進入今年下半年，體驗到積極的營運槓桿。如果你看看 F.N.B.就 2023 年全年而言，我們的表現優於其他公司，對吧，因為我們產生了全年營運槓桿。至少從我所看到的來看，各地的經營槓桿都是負的。因此，我認為我們會盡一切努力在 24 年處於類似的位置。

Yes, that's helpful. And then one for Gary. Just looking at the office maturities in '24, it looks like 20% of that book is maturing I'm just wondering how much of that maturation is or loans kind of vintage 2019 and earlier and then as you look at your CRE portfolio, again, looking at the vintages 2019 and earlier, how different are those loans from a credit quality standpoint just given how different the world is today versus pre-pandemic.

是的，這很有幫助。然後是加里的一張。看看24 年的辦公室到期日，看起來該書的20% 正在到期，我只是想知道其中有多少是2019 年及更早的成熟期或貸款，然後當你再次查看你的CRE 投資組合時看看 2019 年及之前的年份，考慮到當今世界與大流行前的世界有多麼不同，從信貸品質的角度來看，這些貸款有多麼不同。

Yes. Generally speaking, we're going to underwrite those things from the origination date in the low to high 60s range. So when you look at those maturities in addition to that LTV level, which has been very helpful through this cycle so far. They're also underwritten very short.

是的。一般來說，我們會承保從起始日期到 60 年代左右的這些東西。因此，當你看到除了 LTV 水平之外的這些成熟度時，到目前為止，這在這個週期中非常有幫助。它們的承保時間也很短。

So with maturities inside of 5 years or slightly less in some cases. So a number of those transactions have been renewed over the last year or few, many of those borrowers rightsized those transactions. It has been our intent to keep those maturities very short and we'll continue to do that during these times. That all said, we feel as focused as we are on that office space as is everyone we feel quite good about the portfolio at this point. We've only had a couple of credits over the last number of years when since this space has taken a tough go of it from all of the pandemic issues that we've seen.

因此，期限在 5 年以內，或在某些情況下會稍短。因此，其中一些交易在過去一年中得到了更新，其中許多藉款人對這些交易進行了調整。我們的目的是保持這些期限非常短，並且我們將在這段時間內繼續這樣做。總而言之，我們和每個人一樣專注於該辦公空間，目前我們對這個投資組合感到非常滿意。在過去的幾年裡，我們只獲得了幾個積分，因為這個領域已經從我們所看到的所有流行病問題中受到了嚴峻的考驗。

And we've only had a couple of credits that we've had to deal with from a loss standpoint. So we feel good about the position of it. There is a 20% roll rate in the coming year and we expect to move through that with our sponsors, which have shown the ability to rightsize the post additional to reserves to pay down debt and bring it back to a 120 type of debt service coverage. So we'll continue to do the same thing in '24 that we did in '23.

從損失的角度來看，我們只有幾個必須處理的積分。所以我們對它的地位感覺良好。來年有 20% 的滾動率，我們希望與我們的贊助商一起解決這個問題，他們已經表明有能力調整儲備金之外的職位規模，以償還債務並將其恢復到 120 類型的償債覆蓋範圍。因此，我們將在 24 年繼續做 23 年所做的事情。

I'll add on to what Gary said. I think from a prudent underwriting perspective, most of the transactions that we would have underwritten in 2019 would have had long-term leases that go out longer than the maturity that Gary mentioned, having a shorter maturity date. What that means is that while cap rates may change and the valuation may change with a lower LTV and a longer lease term that the debt service coverage remains intact.

我將補充加里所說的內容。我認為，從審慎承銷的角度來看，我們在 2019 年承銷的大多數交易都會有長期租賃，其到期時間比加里提到的期限更長，到期日更短。這意味著，雖然資本化率可能會發生變化，估值也可能會隨著生命週期價值的降低和租賃期限的延長而變化，但償債覆蓋率仍然保持不變。

So it's a lot easier to deal with a devaluation because of the rising cap rate if you have substantial liquidity and a long-term tenant locked up. So I think that in almost every case, that's what we would look at when we would underwrite these transactions, which gives us a great degree of confidence. I also can tell you most of the portfolio, the vast majority of the portfolio sits outside of the urban office scenario. So I think that we have quite a bit of protection in that suburban office in higher-growth areas is not as subject to vacancy like you see in the large cities.

因此，如果你擁有大量流動性並且鎖定了長期租戶，那麼由於資本化率上升，應對貶值會容易得多。所以我認為，幾乎在所有情況下，我們在承銷這些交易時都會考慮這一點，這給了我們很大的信心。我還可以告訴你大部分的投資組合，絕大多數的投資組合都位於城市辦公場景之外。因此，我認為我們在高成長地區的郊區辦公室有相當多的保護，不會像大城市那樣受到空缺的影響。

The other add to the size of the annulars, 40% of the portfolio is less than $5 million in terms of loan size. You move that up to $5 million to $10 million, it's another $17 million. So you're pushing 60% of the portfolio is less than almost 60%. It's less than $10 million and you move that up one more level to $15 million, and you're at 70% of the book of business. And in total, the top 25 credits average right now, just a touch above $30 million, I think it's right at $31 million.

另一個增加了環形規模，40% 的投資組合的貸款規模低於 500 萬美元。如果你把它提高到 500 萬美元到 1000 萬美元，那就又是 1700 萬美元。所以你推動的投資組合的 60% 幾乎不到 60%。它不到 1000 萬美元，如果再上一級，達到 1500 萬美元，那麼您就佔了營業額的 70%。總的來說，目前前 25 個學分的平均金額僅略高於 3000 萬美元，我認為正確的數字是 3100 萬美元。

So the portfolio is very granular. I think we've been very prudent in taking granular hold positions across that space. And it's really shown in the performance grew, what's been a difficult time. It's geographically diverse, too. It's the other right across 7 states, concentrated in one city or one specific area. That we -- obviously, it's something we watch. It's -- there's definitely a weakness in urban office. So it's a good question. Does that help?

所以投資組合非常細緻。我認為我們在該領域採取細粒度的立場時非常謹慎。這確實體現在業績的成長上，這是一段艱難的時期。它的地理位置也多種多樣。這是另一個跨越 7 個州的權利，集中在一個城市或一個特定區域。顯然，這是我們所關注的。城市辦公室肯定存在弱點。所以這是一個好問題。這樣有幫助嗎？

Our next question comes from Casey Haire from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

I want to follow up on the NII guide. So Vince, if -- it sounds like deposit beta is going to peak at around human deposit beta peaks around 35%. Just wondering when does that take place relative to your first Fed cut? And then what is your guide assume for deposit beta on the way down for '24?

我想跟進 NII 指南。因此，文斯，如果——聽起來存款貝塔值將在人類存款貝塔值的 35% 左右達到峰值。只是想知道相對於聯準會第一次降息而言，這是什麼時候發生的？那麼您的指南對 24 年下降的存款測試版有何假設？

Yes. I would say we would drift a little higher we ended the year at 34.3%, I think it says in the slide. We'll just a little bit higher here, another point or 2 is what we're thinking. And then when that happens for second quarter of consistent with the margin kind of bottoming in the first half of the year. And then what we were thinking -- I mentioned the update, it's been 35% now twice on the upside. I think as we look to the point when the Fed pivots and starts to reduce rate using a similar over the medium term, right, 35% makes sense to us.

是的。我想說，我們會稍微走高一點，年底時為 34.3%，我想幻燈片上是這麼說的。我們在這裡只會稍微高一點，另外一兩點是我們的想法。然後，當第二季度發生這種情況時，與上半年的利潤率觸底一致。然後我們的想法是——我提到了更新，現在已經是 35% 的兩倍了。我認為，當我們展望聯準會轉向並開始在中期使用類似利率降低利率時，35% 對我們來說是有意義的。

But within '24, depending on the timing of the Fed cuts, right, and we get some portion of that probably get more than half of it, but you wouldn't get 35% off in calendar '24. So as we have been, we will actively be managing our deposit book on the pricing and in our weekly pricing committee meetings, we already started to talk about, okay, when to be lower rates. Some of our competitors have. So we're going to monitor very closely discuss it constantly and we'll take the right action at the right time. But somewhere in that half or so of that 35%, it might get this year.

但在 24 年之內，根據聯準會降息的時間，我們得到的部分可能會超過一半，但在 24 年你不會得到 35% 的折扣。因此，正如我們一直以來，我們將積極管理我們的定價存款簿，在每週的定價委員會會議上，我們已經開始討論何時降低利率。我們的一些競爭對手已經這樣做了。因此，我們將密切關注並不斷討論它，我們將在正確的時間採取正確的行動。但今年可能會達到這 35% 的一半左右。

Understood. Understood. And then just switching to credit. Gary, if I'm interpreting your remarks correctly, it sounds like you expect net charge-offs to go to decline this year. I'm just wondering what kind of loss rate your provision guide contemplates.

明白了。明白了。然後就轉向信貸。加里，如果我正確地解釋了你的言論，聽起來你預計今年的淨沖銷將會下降。我只是想知道你們的供應指南考慮了什麼樣的損失率。

Yes. I mean in terms of the provision guide at the $80 million to $100 million, naturally, that supports loan growth as well as charge-offs, the specific charge-off level that we've got baked into our plans. I mean, that's a number we don't disclose but I would compare with your thoughts. I mean, we do expect performance to be stable to slightly improve every priority.

是的。我的意思是，就 8000 萬至 1 億美元的撥備指南而言，自然，它支持貸款增長以及沖銷，我們已將其納入計劃中的具體沖銷水平。我的意思是，這是一個我們不會透露的數字，但我會與您的想法進行比較。我的意思是，我們確實期望效能穩定，以稍微改善每個優先順序。

But I think, Casey, if you go to Page 9 in our presentation, you can see net charge-offs to average loans, the third quarter of '23 has we have that one-time event that occurs. So I mean we're.

但我認為，凱西，如果您轉到我們簡報中的第 9 頁，您可以看到平均貸款的淨沖銷，23 年第三季我們發生了一次性事件。所以我的意思是我們是。

Yes, fair enough. That was right.

是的，很公平。沒錯。

What you're seeing in your charge-off.

您在沖銷中看到的內容。

Yes. If you look over the last 3 years, Casey, last 3 years would have been 6 basis points -- 6 basis points and '23 would have been 10 basis points excluding that one item. So you've got really solid, steady performance there over a very pretty sizable, extended and somewhat tumultuous period. And like I said, we like the position of the portfolio. We felt quite good about it going into 2024. Naturally, we're all concerned a bit about where is this economy going and what will that all mean and that has to play out as we all know. But we're good, steady performance and stable up of the portfolio.

是的。如果你看看過去 3 年，凱西，過去 3 年將是 6 個基點——6 個基點，而 23 年將是 10 個基點，不包括這個項目。因此，在相當長的、漫長的、有些動盪的時期內，你的表現非常穩定。正如我所說，我們喜歡投資組合的狀況。進入 2024 年，我們感覺非常好。當然，我們都有點擔心經濟將走向何方，這一切意味著什麼，以及眾所周知的結果。但我們表現良好，業績穩定，投資組合穩定成長。

Okay. Great. And just last one for me. Vince Delie, you mentioned your TC is at the highest level. I think, in your history in the CET1 above 10%. How are you guys thinking about what's the share buyback appetite with your capital ratios at current levels?

好的。偉大的。對我來說只是最後一件。 Vince Delie，你提到你的 TC 處於最高水準。我想，你的歷史在CET1以上10%。你們如何看待當前資本比率水準下的股票回購意願？

We still have, we have authorization to repurchase shares from the Board. We plan on evaluating that as we move along. If we see opportunities to buy shares back, we're certainly going to do it if the earnback is reasonable, right? I mean because we're trying to manage tangible book value levels as well. So I think we're going to continue to look at it and evaluate it and opportunistically execute transactions if they make sense.

我們仍有權從董事會回購股份。我們計劃在前進過程中對此進行評估。如果我們看到回購股票的機會，如果獲利合理，我們肯定會這麼做，對嗎？我的意思是因為我們也在努力管理有形的帳面價值水準。因此，我認為我們將繼續研究它並評估它，並在有意義的情況下機會主義地執行交易。

The deployment of capital as we move forward, really, we're looking at the potential for changes in the economy and loan growth as well because we want to deploy that capital in the most meaningful way. But if we see slowness, we're not just going to sit here and continue to build capital and what we have to do to make sure the returns are -- I don't know if that answers your question or not. In other words, still on the table and we're still going to consider it as we move on.

隨著我們前進，資本的部署實際上，我們也在關注經濟和貸款成長變化的潛力，因為我們希望以最有意義的方式部署資本。但如果我們看到進展緩慢，我們不會只是坐在這裡繼續累積資本，以及我們必須採取哪些措施來確保回報——我不知道這是否能回答你的問題。換句話說，這個問題仍然擺在桌面上，我們在繼續前進時仍然會考慮它。

Our next question comes from Michael Perito from KPW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KPW 的 Michael Perito。

I really just have one last question. I wanted to hit on for Gary on the credit piece. Just yesterday, discover reported earnings and had some uptick on the consumer side and their prime book lines of credit, autos and things of that nature. Just curious what you guys are seeing on the consumer side and from a credit health perspective, most of those portfolios outside the mortgage book, I think, shrunk this year. Just what type of growth is baked into 2024? And what are some of the -- maybe the key things that could drive some better growth performance on the consumer side? Is it just kind of a macro health environment? Is it pricing, competitive dynamics? Just would love some color around all those topics, that would be great.

我真的只有最後一個問題。我想在片尾字幕上搭訕加里。就在昨天，發現報告的收益，消費者方面以及他們的主要信貸額度、汽車和類似性質的東西都有一些上升。只是好奇你們在消費者方面看到了什麼，從信用健康的角度來看，我認為抵押貸款之外的大多數投資組合今年都萎縮了。 2024 年將會出現什麼樣的成長？哪些可能是可以推動消費者方面取得更好成長績效的關鍵因素？這只是宏觀健康環境嗎？是定價、競爭動態嗎？只是希望為所有這些主題提供一些色彩，那就太好了。

Yes, total delinquency across that all-inclusive portfolio, which is right at about $12 billion is 89 basis points. So that's all in consumer. The fourth quarter, it's always up a little bit seasonally at the end of the year with the holidays and whatnot. But if you look over rolling 13 months time frame, it's been from 70 basis points to the (inaudible).

是的，整個投資組合的拖欠總額約為 120 億美元，為 89 個基點。這就是消費者的全部。第四季度，由於年底的假期等原因，它總是會出現一些季節性的上漲。但如果你看一下 13 個月的滾動時間框架，你會發現它已經從 70 個基點到了（聽不清楚）。

So we've seen very consistent performance across that portfolio. The underwriting that we do there, I feel very good about. I think it's very prudent and very stable. We're able to generate good loan growth through those portfolios. And when you look at the investment that we've made and the teams there, it's an important part of our business. So as we look forward, we continue to expect good solid growth there in that mid to slightly higher range in this environment in the high single-digit range in this environment and expect that portfolio to continue to perform well through the cycle that we.

因此，我們看到該投資組合的表現非常一致。我們在那裡做的承保，我感覺非常好。我認為這是非常謹慎、非常穩定的。我們能夠透過這些投資組合實現良好的貸款成長。當你看看我們所做的投資和那裡的團隊時，你會發現這是我們業務的重要組成部分。因此，展望未來，我們繼續預計在這種環境下的中等到稍高的範圍內會有良好的穩健增長，在這種環境下的高個位數範圍內，並預計該投資組合將在我們的週期中繼續表現良好。

That's helpful. So it sounds like in the mid-single-digit growth guidance, there's some consumer growth baked into that for '24. That's the expectation as you stand today.

這很有幫助。因此，聽起來在中等個位數的成長指引中，24 世紀的消費者成長已經融入其中。這就是你們今天所站的期望。

Yes including mortgage. But if you stripped out more, we're still expecting growth and again, I think some of the investments we've made in the digital tool the fact that we're spread across the (inaudible) 60 million consumers in our footprint. Some of the build-out with the ATM delivery channel that heightens provides consumers with accessibility of cash and our brand. I think all of that gives us a little bit of confidence, even though I would say the consumer with inflation and some of the changes economically that are going on are going to be a little challenged. I think we're in a pretty good spot that is continue to grow the book, not as robustly as we have in the past.

是的，包括抵押貸款。但如果你剔除更多，我們仍然期待成長，而且我認為我們在數位工具上進行的一些投資是因為我們的足跡遍布（聽不清楚）6000 萬消費者。 ATM 交付管道的一些建設增強了消費者獲取現金和我們品牌的便利性。我認為所有這些都給了我們一點信心，儘管我想說，通貨膨脹和正在發生的一些經濟變化的消費者將面臨一些挑戰。我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以繼續增加這本書，但不像過去那麼強大。

I know it's been -- last year was tough but things are going to stabilize, and we should see in a lower rate environment, some opportunities to grow that portfolio. But that's baked into the guide.

我知道去年很艱難，但情況將會穩定下來，我們應該在較低的利率環境中看到一些成長投資組合的機會。但這已納入指南中。

Great. Very helpful.

偉大的。很有幫助。

Our next question comes from Russell Gunther from Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的 Russell Gunther。

I just wanted to follow up on the balance sheet repositioning around the tangible book value earn-back math. So I get the securities repositioning. I just wanted to confirm that the preferred stock dividend saving is included in that calculation? And then just ask for some additional color on the indirect auto piece. What rate borrowings would be paid down, whether there's any reserve release associated with those loans included in that math? Just trying to get the puts and takes.

我只是想跟進資產負債表圍繞有形賬面價值盈利​​數學的重新定位。所以我對證券進行了重新定位。我只是想確認優先股股息節省是否包含在該計算中？然後只需在間接汽車件上要求一些額外的顏色即可。償還借款的利率是多少，是否有與該數學中包含的這些貸款相關的準備金釋放？只是想獲得看跌期權和拿走期權。

Yes. So Russell. So as you know, the securities repositioning was done on the available-for-sale portfolio. So that was already baked into the tangible book value. So there's no incremental hit from that. There's very slight hit from the loan sale. But just given the overall strong earnings accretion from the combined transaction, that earn-back is less than a year. When you add in the preferred dividend, it still stays obviously because that's accretive to that would be less than a year. So pretty strong earn-back metric. Anything -- sorry, did I address all your questions there?

是的。所以拉塞爾.如您所知，證券重新定位是在可供出售的投資組合上完成的。所以這已經被納入有形的帳面價值。因此，這不會帶來增量打擊。貸款銷售的影響非常輕微。但考慮到合併交易帶來的整體強勁獲利成長，這種獲利回收期還不到一年。當你加上優先股股息時，它顯然仍然保持不變，因為這會在不到一年的時間內增加。如此強大的獲利指標。有什麼問題嗎——抱歉，我已經回答了你所有的問題了嗎？

The auto piece and what the discount of puts and takes on the savings were there, just the rate of borrowings you'd expect to pay down and whether there's any reserve release associated with those loans that's included in that calculation.

汽車部分以及儲蓄的看跌期權和承兌折扣是多少，您期望償還的借款利率以及是否有與計算中包含的這些貸款相關的任何準備金釋放。

Got you. Yes. No. So the borrowings, we talked about paying off at a similar rate as the yield on the loans. So we're talking roughly 5% to 5.5% type yield on those loans. So net pay down borrowings at a similar rate. And just as a reminder, that loan sale hasn't closed yet. So we actually haven't seen the capital benefits from that full transaction. So just on a pro forma basis, when the loans do go off the balance sheet, we'd expect CET1 to increase unestimated 10 basis points and (inaudible) increase roughly 6 basis points as well on top of that.

明白你了。是的。不。所以對於借款，我們談到以與貸款收益率類似的利率還清。所以我們談論的是這些貸款的大約 5% 到 5.5% 的收益率。因此，以類似的利率淨償還借款。提醒一下，貸款銷售尚未結束。所以我們其實還沒有看到整個交易的資本利得。因此，僅在預計的基礎上，當貸款確實脫離資產負債表時，我們預計 CET1 將增加未估計的 10 個基點，並且（聽不清楚）在此基礎上還會增加約 6 個基點。

And there's no additional income statement at tax, Russell, in the first quarter because with us marking it to the market that captures everything in the fourth quarter. So really, it's just actually executing the sale itself.

拉塞爾，第一季沒有額外的稅務損益表，因為我們將其標記為反映第四季度所有情況的市場數據。事實上，它只是在實際執行銷售本身。

And then I guess just the last follow-up then would be back to the CET1 discussion, the pro forma still north of that 10%. You guys addressed the repurchases, but also sensitivity around earn-back. So not willing to let capital increase or additional securities repositioning on the table? Or how are you thinking about that?

然後我想最後的後續行動將回到 CET1 的討論，預計仍高於 10%。你們討論了回購問題，也討論了獲利報酬的敏感度。那麼不願意讓增資或額外的證券重新定位擺上桌面？還是你怎麼想的？

No. I think we spent a lot of time in the fourth quarter sizing what we did. So we don't have any plans to do any additional security sales, which shift gears. Remember, during the last few years, I mean, we stayed short demo investment portfolio, we stayed conservative on how we manage that. So the total dollar amount that we did there was the kind of the total we're looking to do. We don't have any (inaudible) anything additionally. And then from a capital ratio perspective, within our guidance, and then our capital ratios will drift up as you go through the year, which is important. And then to Vince's point earlier, opportunistically, that will create an ability to do share buybacks if it makes sense.

不，我認為我們在第四季度花了很多時間來衡量我們所做的事情。因此，我們沒有任何計劃進行任何額外的安全銷售，這會改變方向。請記住，在過去幾年中，我的意思是，我們保持做空演示投資組合，我們在管理方式上保持保守。因此，我們在那裡所做的總金額正是我們想要做的總金額。我們沒有任何（聽不清楚）額外的東西。然後從資本比率的角度來看，在我們的指導範圍內，我們的資本比率將隨著這一年的推移而上升，這一點很重要。然後，文斯早些時候指出，如果有意義的話，這將創造一種進行股票回購的能力。

Yes. And I like to see tangible book value above $10, right? I mean, that would be something that we could all celebrate. Because I think ultimately, that translates into a higher valuation for us given our profitability. But -- so we're going to be managing all of that. We're going to be watching all of that and making smart decisions based upon return pressure.

是的。我希望看到有形帳面價值超過 10 美元，對吧？我的意思是，這將是我們所有人都可以慶祝的事情。因為我認為，考慮到我們的獲利能力，這最終會轉化為我們更高的估值。但是——所以我們將管理所有這一切。我們將關注所有這一切，並根據回報壓力做出明智的決定。

Understood.

明白了。

Our next question comes from Manuel Navas from D.A. Davidson & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Manuel Navas。戴維森公司。

Just wanted to get a bit of your economic backdrop behind your loan growth guidance. And then behind the provisioning guidance.

只是想了解您的貸款成長指導背後的經濟背景。然後是後面的配置指導。

In economic environment, I mean, it's kind of what the consensus economists would be saying. I mean it's slowing growth in the second half of the year. We're not making kind of cost on our own. We're kind of looking at what the expectations are from economists throughout the country. And that's kind of what's baked in the GDP, Scott and our plan goes down to like a 0 point, but it's still growth.

我的意思是，在經濟環境中，這就是經濟學家的共識。我的意思是下半年成長放緩。我們不會自己產生某種成本。我們正在研究全國經濟學家的期望。這就是 GDP 中的內容，斯科特和我們的計劃下降到 0 點，但它仍然是增長。

2% on average.

平均2%。

2% on average for the year, right.

今年平均成長2%，對吧。

So that expectation if it was to worsen, would the provision be above the range?

那麼，如果這種預期惡化，準備金是否會高於範圍？

I think we're very comfortable with the range we have.

我認為我們對現有的範圍非常滿意。

Yes. No, we feel very comfortable with the range at this point on where the economy is and how the portfolio looks to be.

是的。不，我們對目前經濟狀況和投資組合的範圍感到非常滿意。

And then loan growth, the pace has been really strong here to close the year. Is that kind of more front-end loaded as it kind of slows across the back half of the year? Or is it -- you feel pretty good about that mid-single digits kind of staying consistent across the year?

然後是貸款成長，今年結束時的成長速度非常強勁。前端負載是否會隨著下半年的放緩而增加？或者是——你對全年保持中個位數的穩定感到滿意嗎？

Yes. I mean there's seasonality within the originations depending on the portfolio. If you look at the commercial book, it tends to grow more in the second into the third quarter. If you look at mortgage banking, I mean moved that up a little bit, maybe a quarter really first and second quarter, it starts to take off. So there are differences in the portfolios. I just use those 2 as an example. But I think when we build our plan to give consensus, we look at both macro and micro scenario.

是的。我的意思是，根據投資組合，起源存在季節性。如果你看一下商業書籍，它往往會在第二季到第三季成長更多。如果你看看抵押貸款銀行業務，我的意思是稍微提高一點，可能是第一季和第二季的四分之一，它開始起飛。因此，投資組合存在差異。我只是用這兩個當例子。但我認為，當我們制定計劃以達成共識時，我們會同時考慮宏觀和微觀場景。

So basically, we built our plant from the ground up. We surveyed our business units. We look at our production capability historically in the markets we're in. And then we look at the macroeconomic environment, says is achievable. And what's happening. And we basically used -- that's why Vince said, we use consensus estimates by economists. We don't forecast ourselves from the else's forecast and then we apply that to our model. So it's all kind of baked in to what we give you. So we're building it from inside of our own company and then we're looking at the macroeconomic factors that would influence that.

所以基本上，我們從頭開始建造我們的工廠。我們調查了我們的業務部門。我們會審視我們所在市場的歷史生產能力。然後我們會審視宏觀經濟環境，說是可以實現的。以及發生了什麼事。我們基本上使用 - 這就是為什麼文斯說，我們使用經濟學家的共識估計。我們不會根據別人的預測來預測自己，然後將其應用到我們的模型中。所以這一切都融入了我們為您提供的內容中。因此，我們正在我們自己的公司內部建立它，然後我們正在研究會影響它的宏觀經濟因素。

That goes for provision expense, loan growth, commercial consumer mortgage, kind of break it down by segment and then build it from the ground up. So I think given where we are in the cycle and what we're seeing and hard to predict, but we're a little more optimistic than we were a quarter ago going into next year. And I think that's reflected in the guide on the loan growth. I'm hoping we can do better. If you look at our pipelines, we did pretty well commercially in the last quarter. It's reflected in the loan growth and the surge in the fourth quarter. That can change from year to year commercially.

這適用於撥備費用、貸款成長、商業消費者抵押貸款，按部分細分，然後從頭開始建立。因此，我認為考慮到我們處於週期中的位置以及我們所看到的和難以預測的情況，但我們對明年的情況比季度前更加樂觀。我認為這反映在貸款成長指南中。我希望我們能做得更好。如果你看看我們的管道，我們上個季度的商業表現相當不錯。這反映在第四季度的貸款成長和激增。商業上情況每年都會改變。

But we did well last quarter. So when you look at our pipelines moving forward, we're relatively flat. So we don't have a big pipeline that we're looking at that says, hey, yes, we're going to achieve 3% or 4% or 5% or whatever the mid-single digit in that portfolio. So I would say that I feel pretty confident about what we're putting forward given what we know about the economy today. I don't know -- that's really helpful.

但我們上個季度表現不錯。因此，當你看看我們的管道向前推進時，我們相對平穩。因此，我們沒有一個大的管道，我們正在尋找，嘿，是的，我們將實現 3% 或 4% 或 5% 或該投資組合中的任何中間個位數。因此，我想說，鑑於我們對當今經濟的了解，我對我們提出的建議非常有信心。我不知道——這真的很有幫助。

Can I add, is there any kind of regional takeaways from your eStore performance? You have a lot of activity, you have a lot of non-account holders using the eStore. Can you break it down regionally at all? Or is it just great trends in general?

可以補充一下，您的 eStore 業績有什麼區域性的收穫嗎？您有很多活動，並且有很多非帳戶持有者使用 eStore。你能把它按地區分解嗎？或者這只是總體趨勢？

Yes. That's an interesting question. I just asked our people that question. So I ask the same question internally. It's still relatively new, we're trying to figure out how to devise that gets us as granular. Gets as granular as we need to be from an origination perspective. But when they initially looked at it, it's pretty much across the board, which is interesting. It wasn't in one particular geography. It was spread across a pretty broad geography.

是的。這是一個有趣的問題。我剛剛問過我們的人這個問題。所以我在內部問同樣的問題。它仍然相對較新，我們正在嘗試找出如何設計來讓我們變得更精細。從起源的角度來看，我們需要的粒度越來越細。但當他們最初看到它時，發現它幾乎是全面的，這很有趣。它不在某一特定的地理區域。它分佈在相當廣闊的地理區域。

So I think anywhere where we have name recognition, branch locations, right? We tend to get more action. Once you move outside of that, we don't advertise a lot so you don't see as much activity, which is part of the reason why we decided to go with branded ATMs and do the ATM deployment because our theory was that the more frequently consumers see us, the more likely they are to digitally. That was part of the strategy. So it seems to be working. If you look at where our geographic locations are where we have signage and some recognition, there's more activity digital.

所以我認為我們在任何有知名度、有分支機構的地方，對吧？我們傾向於採取更多行動。一旦你走出去，我們就不會做太多廣告，所以你不會看到那麼多的活動，這也是我們決定使用品牌 ATM 並進行 ATM 部署的部分原因，因為我們的理論是，消費者越頻繁地看到我們，他們就越有可能透過數位化方式看到我們。這是戰略的一部分。所以它似乎正在發揮作用。如果你看看我們有標誌和一些識別的地理位置，你會發現有更多的數位活動。

That is great. I appreciate that.

太棒了。我很感激。

And then obviously, we're going to now that we've added the deposit products in December. We are going to start advertising. So we will try to grow that through some advertising, bring some awareness to the consumer of the capability. I know locally, I saw it during the Super Bowl, we manage (inaudible) not the Super Bowl, but the national championship for the college football (technical difficulty) dealers are already out lost. But we get some support, let's put it this way. We were in the playoff game. We ran during the Steeler Buffalo Bills game. We ran during the national championship probably locally, right, because we have customers that are in tune with those events. So we ran some advertising and some people commented on it.

顯然，我們現在已經在 12 月添加了存款產品。我們要開始做廣告了。因此，我們將嘗試透過一些廣告來增強這項能力，讓消費者意識到這一點。我在當地知道，我在超級碗期間看到過，我們管理（聽不清楚）不是超級碗，但大學橄欖球全國冠軍（技術難度）經銷商已經輸掉了。但我們得到了一些支持，就這麼說吧。我們當時正在參加季後賽。我們在鋼人布法羅比爾隊的比賽中跑步。我們在全國錦標賽期間可能在當地進行比賽，對吧，因為我們有與這些賽事保持一致的客戶。所以我們做了一些廣告，有些人對此發表了評論。

And then the branding of the buildings in certain markets has helped us with visibility, particularly for, I think we've seen more activity from a prospecting perspective because of the signage on our headquarters building and that activity that's brought some people and then the sponsorships with the penguins, Wade Jersey, the patch, you've got a lot of play on that as well. Anyway, that's how we're trying to build awareness.

然後，某些市場中建築物的品牌幫助我們提高了知名度，特別是，我認為我們從勘探角度看到了更多的活動，因為我們總部大樓上的標誌以及吸引了一些人的活動，然後是讚助企鵝、韋德球衣、補丁，你也可以在上面發揮很多作用。無論如何，這就是我們努力建立意識的方式。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Brian Martin from Janney.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Janney 的 Brian Martin。

Well, most of my questions have been answered. Just 1 question, Vince, you answered it, I think the last question was just on the cadence of the commercial growth of the commercial pipeline? It sounds like it's a little bit slower to start here, given what fourth quarter looked like, but it probably builds from there. That's just in general, what I heard. Is that fair?

嗯，我的大部分問題都得到了解答。只有一個問題，文斯，你回答了，我認為最後一個問題只是關於商業管道的商業成長的節奏？考慮到第四季度的情況，聽起來這裡開始有點慢，但它可能會從那裡開始。這只是我所聽到的一般情況。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. I mean we had a really strong third quarter to kind of clear out the 90-day bucket on the pipeline and that has to rebuild. Relatively flat. We had good production out of the Carolinas. There's double-digit growth in some of the Carolina portfolios, which is pretty positive. Without CRE, without a big contribution from CRE. So we're pretty excited about that.

是的。我的意思是，我們的第三季表現非常強勁，可以清理掉 90 天的計劃，並且必須重建。比較平坦。我們在卡羅萊納州的產量很好。卡羅萊納州的一些投資組合出現了兩位數的成長，這是相當積極的。沒有CRE，沒有CRE 的巨大貢獻。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

And I think there will be opportunity in the Midwest and in the Northeast as well from a C&I perspective as we move into next year -- the latter half of next year.

我認為，從工商業角度來看，隨著明年下半年的到來，中西部和東北部也會有機會。

Got you. Okay. And then just one for Gary. Gary, the credit just -- it sounds very strong. I mean, I guess if you point to one area today that you're maybe a bit more watchful of the criticized sounds like they were down this quarter. But just in general, is there any area that you're paying a bit more attention to as you kind of head into '24, given the strength of the portfolio?

明白你了。好的。然後只有一份給加里。加里，功勞聽起來非常強大。我的意思是，我想如果你今天指出一個領域，你可能會更加警惕批評的聲音，就像他們本季下降的聲音一樣。但總的來說，考慮到投資組合的實力，當您進入 24 年時，是否有任何領域是您需要更加關注的？

Well, I think the CRE book, just in general. I mean, we've been all over that. And the team has done a really nice job of building out risk management practices around that. Tom Fisher and his team are all over those books of business as they are the rest of the portfolio. But the office space, naturally, and we've said it for years, that was going to be a longer-term portfolio segment in the industry. That is going to have to be dealt with over time.

嗯，我覺得CRE這本書，就一般而言。我的意思是，我們已經討論過了。該團隊在圍繞此建立風險管理實踐方面做得非常出色。湯姆費雪（Tom Fisher）和他的團隊在這些商業書籍中隨處可見，就像他們是投資組合的其餘部分一樣。但辦公空間自然會成為該行業的一個長期投資組合部分，我們已經說過很多年了。隨著時間的推移，這個問題必須解決。

I mean that change was, I would say not temporary. There's been a permanent change in that market. Fortunately, I think we chosen well there over time with good solid sponsors that have liquidity and I think that's why that portfolio has continued to perform as it has to this point. But that CRE space in that office portfolio. I think it has to wait a way to go to that, Brian. So we'll continue to be all over that.

我的意思是，我想說，這種改變不是暫時的。該市場發生了永久性的變化。幸運的是，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們選擇了良好的、可靠的、有流動性的贊助商，我認為這就是為什麼該投資組合能夠繼續表現到現在為止。但辦公室組合中的 CRE 空間。我認為這還需要一段時間才能實現，布萊恩。所以我們將繼續關注這一點。

Okay. Perfect. Yes. And then maybe just last 2, just on the fee income side, just kind of looking at the pickup in mortgage and you talked a little bit about kind of a little bit of a change in strategy there. Just kind of the puts and takes on mortgage outlook for here and then just the capital markets revenue. It was pretty consistent, maybe a little bit lower level from where it was previous years just kind of wondering how to think about that or just how the pipeline looks there.

好的。完美的。是的。然後也許只是最後兩個，就在費用收入方面，只是看看抵押貸款的回升，你談到了策略上的一點改變。這裡只是抵押貸款前景的看跌期權和看跌期權，然後是資本市場收入。這是非常一致的，也許比前幾年的水平要低一些，只是想知道如何思考這一點，或者管道看起來如何。

Yes. I would just say the noninterest income, again, shows the benefit of converged by revenue base, right? I mean we've had another good quarter of above 80%. We've been above 80%. 6 out of the last 7 quarters, getting their different ways, but again, the benefit of diversification. So capital markets was a solid quarter for us. I mean, it's up from the prior quarter, down from last year. I had a 10 handle to it, but there's still a lot of opportunity there. And I think when the rate environment starts to shift, we will continue to be opportunity there.

是的。我只想說，非利息收入再次顯示了收入基礎趨同的好處，對嗎？我的意思是，我們又經歷了一個超過 80% 的好季度。我們已經超過80%了。過去 7 個季度中的 6 個季度，他們的方式各不相同，但同樣是多元化的好處。因此，資本市場對我們來說是一個穩健的季度。我的意思是，它比上一季有所上升，比去年有所下降。我有 10 個手柄，但那裡仍然有很多機會。我認為，當利率環境開始改變時，我們將繼續存在機會。

But we have really all the contributions from all the components there from a swap perspective international syndication at capital markets. So there's a lot of pieces even within that business. And then the mortgage bounce back. I mean we had a really strong '23 I mean in an environment where the market was down from an origination standpoint, the overall industry was down, we were up, and we're forecasting from an origination standpoint. Close to double-digit increase in originations in '24 versus '23.

但從互換的角度來看，我們確實擁有資本市場上所有組成部分的所有貢獻。所以即使在這個行業裡也有很多部分。然後抵押貸款就會反彈。我的意思是，我們在23 年經歷了非常強勁的發展，我的意思是，從起源的角度來看，市場處於下降狀態，整個行業都在下降，而我們卻在上升，而且我們從起源的角度進行預測。與 23 年相比，24 年的起源數量增加了接近兩位數。

And then my comments on pricing was more just about saleable versus portfolio, not really affecting the level of originations but kind of what we earn on the balance sheet and what we sell.

然後，我對定價的評論更多是關於可銷售與投資組合，並沒有真正影響起源水平，而是影響我們在資產負債表上賺取的收入和我們銷售的產品。

The other thing I would say is that in a lower rate environment, if we do get the rate decreases, we should see more activity in derivatives, more activity in debt capital markets with our large corporate customers going to market to raise capital and syndication should pick up in the second half of the year. And then the mortgage business, gain on sale should accelerate.

我想說的另一件事是，在較低的利率環境下，如果我們確實降低了利率，我們應該會看到衍生性商品的更多活動，債務資本市場的更多活動，我們的大型企業客戶會進入市場籌集資金，銀團應該會出現更多的活動。下半年將有所回升。然後，抵押貸款業務的銷售收益應該會加速。

So like Vince said, having a portfolio. And then we've had good steady growth, I should mention our asset management and the wealth and trust shops have done extraordinarily well. So they're up in revenue, net income growing net assets. I mean we're at record levels. So we're in good markets where we should see continued growth in that book. So we have a good balanced set of fee generators that I think in the coming year, if rates play out the way some are forecasting, we should do okay with noninterest income.

正如文斯所說，擁有一個投資組合。然後我們有很好的穩定成長，我應該提到我們的資產管理和財富和信託商店做得非常好。所以他們的收入、淨利和淨資產都在成長。我的意思是我們正處於創紀錄的水平。因此，我們處於良好的市場，我們應該看到這本書的持續成長。因此，我們有一套良好平衡的費用產生器，我認為在來年，如果利率按照某些人的預測方式發揮作用，我們應該在非利息收入方面做得很好。

And then initiatives on the small business and PM side will be additive.

然後，小型企業和專案管理方面的措施將得到補充。

Yes. No, the businesses you guys have built out are really paying dividends here. And like you said, the diversification. And I guess on the mortgage, I was just trying to understand, Vince, if part of the increase this quarter was really just you selling more and if so you do have an increase in originations next year and you continue to sell at a higher rate, maybe that also contributes to a better outlook for '24.

是的。不，你們建立的企業確實在這裡獲得了紅利。正如你所說，多元化。我想在抵押貸款方面，文斯，我只是想了解，本季度增長的一部分是否真的只是您銷售更多，如果是這樣，您明年的起始量確實有所增加，並且您繼續以更高的價格銷售，也許這也有助於 24 世紀更好的前景。

Yes. The gain on sale margin is lower, though. It depends on the rate environment. But when you look at it, we may have sold but we're not making as much for unit. We're just moving it off the balance sheet is the rate environment provide us with the opportunity do that. And remember, we focus principally on purchase money. That activity has been lower, right? I mean we don't -- we're not -- in a declining rate environment, we would see more refinance activity, even though we focus more on purchase money, we would get some benefit from the refinance market. So there's trade-offs.

是的。不過，銷售利潤率的收益較低。這取決於利率環境。但當你看到它時，我們可能已經賣掉了，但我們並沒有賺那麼多錢。我們只是將其從資產負債表中移出，因為利率環境為我們提供了這樣做的機會。請記住，我們主要關注購買資金。該活動較低，對嗎？我的意思是，我們不會——我們不會——在利率下降的環境中，我們會看到更多的再融資活動，即使我們更專注於購買資金，我們也會從再融資市場中獲得一些好處。所以需要權衡。

But I think it's a pretty balanced approach and I think that's we've been able to sustain our fee income levels through this period. Even with declining consumer fees right we've done pretty good time.

但我認為這是一種非常平衡的方法，我認為我們能夠在這段期間維持我們的費用收入水準。即使消費者費用下降，我們也做得相當不錯。

Brian, I would just add the mortgage income in the fourth quarter had a benefit from rates coming down, too. So the fair value mark on the pipeline has contributed to that in the fourth quarter.

布萊恩，我想補充一下，第四季的抵押貸款收入也受益於利率下降。因此，管道中的公允價值標記對第四季度的情況做出了貢獻。

Got you. Okay. Perfect. And then just the last one was just on the margin. Vince, Vince C. Just the one question. Just remind me, I mean, from a variable rate perspective, I mean the percentage of variable rate loans and then if a 25 basis point cut on that piece. How much does that move the margin for each kind of 25 basis point cut?

明白你了。好的。完美的。然後最後一個就在邊緣了。文斯，文斯 C。只有一個問題。請提醒我，我的意思是，從可變利率的角度來看，我的意思是可變利率貸款的百分比，然後是否削減 25 個基點。每種 25 個基點的降息幅度會產生多少變化？

We need to look at the old balance sheet, right? Our percentage is still about 47% of loans that are very judged down and I was talking about earlier, and you have all the different movement parts to see these are 10 months average maturity. So pluses and minuses there. That's kind of all baked into the market kind of bottoming in the first half of the year, Brian, and then.

我們需要看看舊的資產負債表，對嗎？我們的貸款比例仍然約為 47%，這些貸款被嚴重低估，我之前談過，你可以透過所有不同的變動部分看到這些是 10 個月的平均到期日。所以有優點和缺點。布萊恩，這一切都融入了市場在上半年觸底的過程中，然後。

Yes. Okay. That helps out 47%. So all right.

是的。好的。這對 47% 的人有幫助。那麼好吧。

And ladies and gentlemen, showing no additional questions, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Vince Delie for any closing remarks.

女士們先生們，沒有其他問題，我想將發言權轉回文斯·德利（Vince Delie）發表結束語。

Yes. I'd like to thank everybody for the questions, great questions. Thank you for your interest. And I think given what's gone on this year F.N.B. has performed very well. And many of the key strategies that we've deployed that we've talked about over the years, really played out during the liquidity crisis earlier this year.

是的。我要感謝大家提出的問題，非常好的問題。感謝您的關注。我認為考慮到今年發生的事情，F.N.B.表現非常好。我們多年來討論過的許多關鍵策略在今年早些時候的流動性危機期間確實發揮了作用。

You got to see firsthand, what we've been talking about in terms of client primacy, the quality of our deposit portfolio and our credit underwriting. So I think it really showed itself this year and I'm very excited about moving into next year, hopefully, moving into a better economic, but we move in to '24, particularly the latter half of '24 and again, we'd like to thank our employees because they step up and get things done and did an admirable job last year. So thank you. Thank you, everybody. Take care.

您必須親眼目睹我們一直在談論的客戶至上、存款組合的品質和信貸承保的內容。所以我認為今年它確實表現出來了，我對進入明年感到非常興奮，希望能夠進入更好的經濟，但我們進入了 24 年，特別是 24 年下半年，我們再次我要感謝我們的員工，因為他們挺身而出，把事情做好，去年的工作非常出色。所以謝謝。謝謝大家。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。