Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

My name is (inaudible) and I will be your conference operator today.

我的名字是（聽不清楚），我今天將擔任您的會議操作員。

At this time.

此時。

I would like to welcome everyone to the Fifth Third Bancorp, third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call.

我歡迎大家參加第五屆 Third Bancorp 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Curoe, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Matt Curoe。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome to Fifth Third, third quarter, 2024 earnings call this morning.

歡迎參加今天上午舉行的 2024 年第三季第五次財報電話會議。

Our Chairman CEO and President, Tim Spence; and CFO Bryan Preston will provide an overview of our third quarter results and outlook.

我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁 Tim Spence；財務長 Bryan Preston 將概述我們第三季的業績和前景。

Our Chief Credit Officer Greg Carmichael has also joined for the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的首席信貸官 Greg Carmichael 也參加了電話會議的問答部分。

Please review the cautionary statements in our materials which can be found in our earnings release and presentation.

請查看我們資料中的警示性聲明，這些聲明可以在我們的收益發布和演示中找到。

These materials contain information regarding the use of non GAAP measures and reconciliations to the GAAP results as well as forward-looking statements about Fifth Third's performance.

這些資料包含有關非公認會計準則衡量標準的使用和公認會計準則結果的調節的信息，以及有關 Fifth Third 業績的前瞻性陳述。

These statements speak only as of October 18, 2024 and Fifth Third undertakes no obligation to update them.

這些聲明僅截至 2024 年 10 月 18 日，Fifth Third 不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。

Following prepared remarks by Tim and Bryan, we will open up the call for questions.

在提姆和布萊恩準備好發言後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn it over to Tim.

接下來，讓我把它交給提姆。

Thanks Matt and good morning everyone.

謝謝馬特，大家早安。

At Fifth Third, we believe great banks distinguish themselves not by how they perform in benign environments, but rather by how they navigate uncertain ones.

Fifth Third 認為，偉大的銀行之所以能脫穎而出，不在於它們在良性環境中的表現，而是它們如何應對不確定的環境。

Our focus on stability, profitability and growth in that order has served us well in this dynamic operating environment and continues to produce strong and predictable results.

我們對穩定性、獲利能力和成長的關注在這個充滿活力的營運環境中為我們提供了良好的服務，並繼續產生強勁且可預測的業績。

This morning, we reported earnings per share of $0.78 or $0.85 excluding certain items outlined on page 2 of the release exceeding the guidance we provided in our second quarter earnings call.

今天早上，我們公佈的每股收益為 0.78 美元或 0.85 美元，不包括新聞稿第 2 頁列出的某些項目，超出了我們在第二季度財報電話會議中提供的指導。

We produced a return on equity of 12.8% the best among peers who have reported thus far and the most stable on a trailing 12 month basis.

我們的股本回報率為 12.8%，是迄今為止報告的同行中最好的，也是過去 12 個月最穩定的。

Our adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 56.1% in the third quarter.

第三季調整後效率提高至 56.1%。

Headcount declined 1% year-over-year, despite continued investments in our growth strategies.

儘管我們持續對成長策略進行投資，但員工人數仍較去年同期下降 1%。

We achieved sequential positive operating leverage for the second consecutive quarter without the need to expend shareholder capital on an investment portfolio restructuring charge, and are in a position to achieve positive operating leverage on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter.

We achieved sequential positive operating leverage for the second consecutive quarter without the need to expend shareholder capital on an investment portfolio restructuring charge, and are in a position to achieve positive operating leverage on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis in the fourth四分之一.

Despite changes throughout the year on interest rates, economic activity and market demand as we come into the home stretch for 2024, I am pleased to say that Fifth Third should deliver NII, fees, expenses and credit costs within the full year guidance ranges we provided back in our January earnings call.

儘管隨著我們進入2024 年的衝刺階段，全年利率、經濟活動和市場需求都會發生變化，但我很高興地說，Fifth Third 應在我們提供的全年指導範圍內提供NII、費用、支出和信貸成本回到我們一月份的財報電話會議。

Before I hand the call over to Bryan to provide additional detail on our financial results and outlook, I would like to take a minute to highlight the ways in which our strategic growth investments should have been consistent over several years are providing long term organic growth that is not macro environment dependent.

在我將電話轉交給布萊恩以提供有關我們的財務業績和前景的更多詳細信息之前，我想花一點時間強調一下我們的戰略增長投資應該在幾年內保持一致，以提供長期的有機增長，不依賴宏觀環境。

In our consumer bank, consumer households grew 2.7% over the prior year punctuated by 6% household growth in the Southeast.

在我們的消費者銀行中，消費者家庭比去年成長了 2.7%，其中東南部地區的家庭成長了 6%。

The release of the FDICs annual summary of deposits during the quarter provided an additional means to benchmark our performance.

本季 FDIC 年度存款摘要的發佈為衡量我們的業績提供了額外的手段。

For the second year in a row, Fifth Third was number one among all large banks and year-over-year retail deposit growth measured on a cap branch deposit basis.

Fifth Third 連續第二年在所有大型銀行中排名第一，零售存款成長以分行存款上限衡量。

We maintained or improved our market position in every market where we compete.

我們在我們參與競爭的每個市場中保持或提高了我們的市場地位。

In our Midwest markets, we maintained our number two overall position behind JP Morgan.

在中西部市場，我們維持了僅次於摩根大通的第二大整體地位。

In our Southeast markets, we maintained our number six overall position and significantly closed the GAAP to our top five goal.

在東南市場，我們保持了第六名的整體位置，並且按照公認會計準則 (GAAP) 大幅接近了前五名的目標。

We grew retail deposits nearly 16% year-over-year and gained meaningful market share in 14 of our 15 focus MFAs in the Southeast.

我們的零售存款年增近 16%，並在東南部 15 個重點 MFA 中的 14 個中獲得了可觀的市場份額。

We will open up 19 [De Novo] branch locations in the fourth quarter and plan to accelerate the pace of openings through 2028.

我們將在第四季開設 19 家 [De Novo] 分店，並計劃在 2028 年之前加快開設分店的步伐。

At which time, we will have nearly half our network or more than 500 branches in total in the Southeast.

屆時，我們將在東南部擁有近一半的網絡，即超過500家分支機構。

In our commercial bank, we continue to expand our middle market presence and to invest in commercial payments.

在我們的商業銀行中，我們繼續擴大中間市場業務並投資商業支付。

Over the past 12 months, we have increased relationship manager head count by over 20% in our Southeast and expansion markets, including opening commercial banking offices in Birmingham, Kansas City and in the Central Valley.

在過去 12 個月中，我們在東南部和擴張市場的客戶經理人數增加了 20% 以上，包括在伯明罕、堪薩斯城和中央山谷開設商業銀行辦事處。

Third quarter, middle market loan production was the highest in five quarters led by the Southeast markets which were up 20% sequentially and over 30% over the prior year.

第三季度，中間市場貸款產出創五個季度以來最高，其中東南市場領先，較上季成長 20%，較去年同期成長超過 30%。

Our commercial payments business grew net fee equivalent revenues by 10% year-over-year in the quarter and we processed $4.3 trillion in dollar volume.

我們的商業支付業務本季的淨費用等值收入年增 10%，處理額達 4.3 兆美元。

New line in our managed service offerings continue to lead the way in terms of growth that is delinked from our balance sheet.

我們的託管服務產品中的新產品線繼續引領與我們的資產負債表脫鉤的成長。

Over 40% of all new commercial payments relationships added this year have been payments led with no credit attached.

今年新增的所有商業支付關係中，超過 40% 是不附帶信用的付款方式。

In our wealth and asset management business, we achieved record quarterly revenues growing by 12% year-over-year.

在我們的財富和資產管理業務中，我們實現了創紀錄的季度收入年增 12%。

Total assets under management have grown $12 billion in the past year or up 21% to $69 billion.

去年，管理的總資產增加了 120 億美元，增幅為 21%，達到 690 億美元。

Our Fifth Third private bank, Fifth, Third, securities and Fifth Third wealth advisors business units all continue to generate strong performance.

我們的五三私人銀行、五三證券及五三財富顧問業務部門均持續創造強勁業績。

Turning to capital, our strong profitability and discipline balance sheet management are providing growth capacity and the opportunity to increase capital return to shareholders.

談到資本，我們強大的獲利能力和嚴格的資產負債表管理正在提供成長能力和增加股東資本回報的機會。

This quarter, we increased our common dividend by 6% to $0.37 per share and executed $200 million in share of purchases.

本季度，我們將普通股股息提高了 6%，達到每股 0.37 美元，並執行了 2 億美元的股票購買。

Even with these actions, our CET1 ratio increased to 10.8%.

即使採取了這些措施，我們的 CET1 比率仍增加至 10.8%。

This will allow us to increase share of purchases in the fourth quarter to $300 million with the potential to increase further depending on the level of loan growth realized during the quarter.

這將使我們能夠將第四季度的採購份額增加到 3 億美元，並有可能根據本季實現的貸款成長水準進一步增加。

Looking ahead to the remainder of the year and the beginning of next, while we feel more optimistic today about the near term outlook for the economy, we also recognize that cross currents including reversals and interest rate rallies, volatility and jobs reports, stickiness and inflation and geopolitical uncertainty could produce a wide range of potential economic outcomes.

展望今年剩餘時間和明年初，雖然我們今天對近期經濟前景感到更加樂觀，但我們也認識到，包括逆轉和利率反彈、波動性和就業報告、粘性和通脹在內的逆流地緣政治的不確定性可能會產生廣泛的潛在經濟結果。

We will continue to manage the third with a focus on stability, profitability and growth in that order and to stay liquid and conservatively positioned while investing with the long term

我們將繼續管理第三個，重點關注穩定性、盈利能力和成長，並在長期投資的同時保持流動性和保守定位

[month].

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Lastly, I'd like to take a moment to express our sympathies to all those who have been impacted by hurricane helene and hurricane milton.

最後，我想花一點時間向所有受到颶風海倫和颶風米爾頓影響的人們表示同情。

We recognize the hardships that arise from such devastating events.

我們認識到此類毀滅性事件所帶來的困難。

And I would like to also thank all our employees who have answered the call to support our customers and communities at this time.

我還要感謝此時響應號召支持我們的客戶和社區的所有員工。

In the day, since the hurricanes, you've worked tirelessly to reopen branches and check in on customers.

自從颶風過後，您一直在不知疲倦地努力重新開設分行並檢查客戶狀況。

We staffed the Fifth Third financial empowerment bus to enable those who lost power and internet access to apply for (inaudible) disaster relief.

我們為 Fifth Third 金融賦權巴士配備了工作人員，使那些失去電力和網路連線的人能夠申請（聽不清楚）救災。

Your dedication to serve in the face of these natural disasters is inspiring.

你們在面對這些天災時所奉獻的奉獻精神令人鼓舞。

Thank you for living our core values.

感謝您實踐我們的核心價值。

With that, I will turn it over to Bryan to provide more detail on the quarter and our outlook.

接下來，我將把它交給 Bryan，以提供有關本季和我們的前景的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks Tim and thank you to everyone joining us today.

謝謝蒂姆，也謝謝今天加入我們的所有人。

We're pleased with our third quarter results once again demonstrate the strength of our company.

我們對第三季的業績感到滿意，再次證明了我們公司的實力。

Our well positioned balance sheet and diversified fee income streams drove 3% sequential adjusted revenue growth.

我們良好的資產負債表和多元化的費用收入流推動調整後營收季增 3%。

That revenue performance combined with our ongoing expense discipline resulted in 5% sequential pre provision net revenue growth in the third quarter on an adjusted basis.

這項收入表現與我們持續的費用紀律相結合，導致第三季調整後的撥備前淨收入較上季成長 5%。

As Tim mentioned, our profitability remains strong, which allowed us to continue to accrue capital while we're purchasing shares and raising the quarterly common dividend 6%.

正如蒂姆所提到的，我們的獲利能力仍然強勁，這使我們能夠在購買股票並將季度普通股股息提高 6% 的同時繼續累積資本。

Our CET1 ratio grew to 10.8% at the end of the quarter and our tangible book value per share inclusive of AOC I increased 14% compared to June 30 and 47% from a year ago.

截至本季末，我們的 CET1 比率增至 10.8%，包括 AOC I 在內的每股有形帳面價值較 6 月 30 日增加了 14%，較去年同期增加了 47%。

Highlighted on page 2 of our release, our reported results were impacted by certain items including costs related to the Visa Mastercard Interchange litigation and some severance recognized during the quarter as we continue to work to drive efficiencies and automation.

我們的新聞稿第 2 頁強調了我們報告的業績受到某些項目的影響，包括與 Visa 萬事達卡互換訴訟相關的成本以及本季度因我們繼續努力提高效率和自動化而確認的一些遣散費。

That interest income for the quarter was over $1.4 billion and increased 2% sequentially and net interest margin improved 2 basis points.

本季利息收入超過 14 億美元，季增 2%，淨利差提高 2 個基點。

Increased yields on new loan production with the primary driver of this improvement and more than offset the impact of increased interest bearing core deposit costs which were well managed and up only 2 basis points compared to the prior quarter.

新貸款產量的增加是這一改善的主要驅動力，並且遠遠抵消了帶息核心存款成本增加的影響，該成本管理良好，與上一季度相比僅上升了 2 個基點。

With the Fed funds rate cut at the end of the quarter, in September, we experienced our first month-over- month decrease in interest bearing core deposit costs during this rate cycle.

隨著聯邦基金利率在本季末（9 月）下調，我們經歷了本利率週期中帶息核心存款成本的首次環比下降。

While total average portfolio loans and leases were flat sequentially, we are seeing some signs of life.

儘管平均投資組合貸款和租賃總額環比持平，但我們看到了一些復甦的跡象。

Loan production rebounded for both middle market and corporate banking with strong contributions from the Georgia and Chicago regions as well as the energy and TMT verticals.

中間市場和企業銀行業務的貸款產量均出現反彈，喬治亞州和芝加哥地區以及能源和 TMT 垂直行業的貢獻強勁。

For the commercial portfolio, average loans decreased 1% primarily due to increased paydowns and softness in revolver utilization which declined 1% during the quarter to 35%.

對於商業投資組合，平均貸款下降 1%，主要是由於還款額增加和循環貸款利用率疲軟，本季循環貸款利用率下降 1% 至 35%。

Average total consumer portfolio loans and leases were up 1% from the prior quarter, primarily reflecting an increase in indirect auto originations, which continued to be a significant contributor to our fixed rate asset repricing.

平均消費者投資組合貸款和租賃總額較上一季成長 1%，主要反映了間接汽車起源的增加，這仍然是我們固定利率資產重新定價的重要貢獻者。

During the quarter, we saw a 200 basis points of pick up on the front book back book repricing in this portfolio.

本季度，我們看到該投資組合的正面帳面重新定價上升了 200 個基點。

Diving further into deposits, average core deposits were up 1% sequentially driven by higher money market balances offset by a decrease in savings and CDs.

進一步深入研究存款，由於貨幣市場餘額增加，而儲蓄和定期存款減少所抵消，平均核心存款環比增長了 1%。

This core deposit balance performance combined with our well timed long term debt issuance during the quarter has allowed us to pay down higher cost short term wholesale borrowings.

這種核心存款餘額表現加上我們在本季適時發行的長期債務，使我們能夠償還成本較高的短期批發借款。

As a result, our rates paid on total interest bearing liabilities decreased 1 basis point sequentially.

因此，我們對總計息負債支付的利率較上月下降了 1 個基點。

Our current focus remains on prudently managing deposit costs as we have officially entered the rate cutting cycle.

隨著我們正式進入降息週期，我們目前的重點仍然是審慎管理存款成本。

Since mid 2023, we have been increasing our testing of price sensitivity in our deposit book to be well prepared for this phase of the cycle.

自 2023 年年中以來，我們一直在增加存款簿中的價格敏感度測試，以便為週期的這一階段做好充分準備。

We remain confident in our ability to manage liability costs to drive net interest income performance in the fourth quarter and beyond.

我們對管理負債成本以推動第四季及以後的淨利息收入表現的能力仍然充滿信心。

Demand deposit balances as a percent of core deposits were 24% during the third quarter, down 1% from the prior quarter.

第三季活期存款餘額佔核心存款的百分比為 24%，較上季下降 1%。

This level is consistent with our expectations from July and we expect [DDA] mix to stay around 24% for the remainder of the year.

這一水平與我們 7 月的預期一致，我們預計今年剩餘時間內 [DDA] 比例將保持在 24% 左右。

By segment, average consumer and wealth deposits were stable sequentially, while commercial deposits increased 3%.

以細分領域來看，平均消費者存款和財富存款較上季穩定，商業存款成長 3%。

We ended the quarter with full category 1 LCR compliance at 132%, and our loan to core deposit ratio was 71% down 1% from the prior quarter.

本季結束時，我們的 1 類 LCR 合規率為 132%，貸款與核心存款比率為 71%，比上一季下降 1%。

Moving on to fees, excluding the impact of the security gains and the visa total return swap, adjusted non interest income increased 2% compared to the year ago quarter.

說到費用，排除擔保收益和簽證總回報掉期的影響，調整後的非利息收入與去年同期相比增加了 2%。

As Tim mentioned, our commercial payments and wealth businesses delivered strong fee results with both achieving double digit revenue growth over the prior year, driven by our sustained, strategic organic growth Investments in products and sales personnel.

正如蒂姆所提到的，在我們對產品和銷售人員的持續策略性有機成長投資的推動下，我們的商業支付和財富業務取得了強勁的費用業績，比前一年實現了兩位數的收入增長。

In commercial payments, revenue increased 10% as we continue to acquire new clients and traditional treasury management products, our managed service offerings and a new line.

在商業支付方面，隨著我們繼續獲得新客戶和傳統資金管理產品、我們的託管服務產品和新產品線，收入增加了 10%。

And wealth, our AUM increased to $69 billion up 21% over the prior year driven by strong inflows from Fifth Third wealth advisers and market performance.

在財富方面，由於 Fifth Third 財富顧問的強勁資金流入和市場表現，我們的資產管理規模較上年增長 21%，增至 690 億美元。

Fees of $163 million million this quarter were a record high led by strong transactional activity at Fifth Third securities and the fee benefit from the AUM growth.

本季 1.63 億美元的費用創下歷史新高，這得益於 Fifth Third 證券的強勁交易活動以及 AUM 成長帶來的費用。

Our capital markets business rebounded this quarter as bond issuance and trading as well as rate hedging activities picked up.

隨著債券發行和交易以及利率對沖活動的回升，我們的資本市場業務本季出現反彈。

Fees grew 9% over the prior year, also led by our debt capital markets business.

費用比上年增加 9%，這也是由我們的債務資本市場業務所帶動的。

The security gains of $10 million were from the mark to market impact of our non qualified deferred compensation plan, which is more than offset and compensation expense.

1000 萬美元的安全收益來自我們的不合格遞延補償計劃的按市場計價影響，這超出了抵消和補償費用。

Moving to expenses, excluding these items noted on page 2 of our release, our adjusted non interest expense was up 3% from the year ago quarter and increased 2% sequentially, primarily due to increases in performance based compensation due to the strong fee generation.

說到費用，不包括我們新聞稿第2 頁中提到的這些項目，我們調整後的非利息費用比去年同期增長3%，比上一季增長2%，這主要是由於強勁的費用產生導致基於績效的薪酬增加。

The impact of the previously mentioned non qualified deferred compensation mark to market and continued investments in technology, branches and sales personnel.

前面提到的不合格遞延薪酬對市場的影響以及對技術、分公司和銷售人員的持續投資。

Shifting to credit, the net charge off ratio was 48 basis points, slightly better than our expectations from early September and down 1 basis point sequentially.

轉向信貸，淨沖銷率為 48 個基點，略優於我們 9 月初的預期，較上季下降 1 個基點。

Commercial charge offs were 40 basis points down 5 basis points sequentially, and consumer charge offs were 62 basis points, up 5 basis points from a seasonally low second quarter.

商業沖銷為 40 個基點，季減 5 個基點，消費者沖銷為 62 個基點，較第二季季節性低點上升 5 個基點。

Early stage delinquencies, 30 to 89 days past due decreased 2 basis points to 24 basis points which remain near the lowest levels we have experienced over the last decade.

早期拖欠（逾期 30 至 89 天）減少了 2 個基點至 24 個基點，仍接近過去十年來的最低水準。

NPAs increased $82 million during the quarter and the NPA ratio increased 7 basis points to 62 basis points in line with our 10 year average and remains below the pure median level.

本季不良資產增加​​ 8,200 萬美元，不良資產比率增加 7 個基點至 62 個基點，與我們 10 年平均值一致，但仍低於純中位數水準。

Commercial NPAs increased $60 million from the prior quarter within our C&I portfolio, NPAs increased $20 million due to increased inflow activity, which given the nature of the commercial business will be uneven from quarter-to-quarter.

我們的 C&I 投資組合中的商業不良資產比上一季增加了 6,000 萬美元，由於流入活動增加，不良資產增加​​了 2,000 萬美元，考慮到商業業務的性質，每季的不良資產將不平衡。

On a year-over-year basis.

按年計算。

C&I, NPAs are down $7 million.

C&I、NPAs 減少了 700 萬美元。

Our CRE portfolio continues to perform well with no net charge offs during the quarter and an NPA ratio of only 46 basis points.

我們的商業房地產投資組合持續表現良好，本季沒有淨沖銷，不良資產比率僅為 46 個基點。

The increase in our commercial mortgage NTAs is related to a single senior living credit in our owner occupied portfolio.

我們商業抵押貸款 NTA 的增加與我們自住投資組合中的單一老年生活信貸有關。

Consumer NPAs increased to $'20 million from the prior quarter.

消費者不良資產較上季增加至 2,000 萬美元。

Approximately half of this increase was driven by a recent change in policy related to our consumer non accrual processes to better align our policies across asset classes and primarily impacted our return to accrual timing for loans that are paying in full and current.

其中約一半的成長是由於最近與我們的消費者非應計流程相關的政策變化所致，以便更好地調整我們跨資產類別的政策，並主要影響我們全額償還當前貸款的應計時間。

Overall, we are not seeing any broad credit weakening across industries or geographies.

整體而言，我們沒有看到跨行業或地區的信貸普遍走弱。

From a credit perspective, we do not expect hurricane helene to have a material impact on losses and we are continuing to assess the impact of hurricane milton.

從信用角度來看，我們預期颶風海倫不會對損失產生重大影響，我們正在繼續評估颶風米爾頓的影響。

Our ACL coverage ratio increased 1 basis point to 2.09% and included an $18 million reserve bill.

我們的 ACL 覆蓋率增加了 1 個基點，達到 2.09%，其中包括 1,800 萬美元的準備金。

We continue to utilize Moody's macroeconomic scenarios when evaluating our allowance and made no changes to our scenario waitings.

在評估我們的準備金時，我們繼續利用穆迪的宏觀經濟情景，並且對我們的情景等待沒有任何改變。

Moving to capital, we ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 10.8%, significantly exceeding our buffered minimum of 7.7% reflecting strong capital levels.

轉向資本，本季結束時，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.8%，顯著超過我們的緩衝最低值 7.7%，反映出強勁的資本水準。

Our pro forma CET1 ratio including the AOC I impact of the securities portfolio is 8.7%.

我們的預期 CET1 比率（包括 AOC I 對證券投資組合的影響）為 8.7%。

We expect continued improvement in the unrealized losses in our securities portfolio, given that 59% of the AFS portfolio is in bullet or locked out securities which provides a high degree of certainty to our principal cash flow expectations.

鑑於 AFS 投資組合的 59% 是子彈或鎖定證券，這為我們的本金現金流量預期提供了高度確定性，我們預計我們的證券投資組合的未實現損失將繼續改善。

Assuming the forward curve is realized, approximately 24% of the AOC I related to securities losses will accrete back into equity by the end of 2025, increasing tangible book value per share by 6% before considering any future earnings. 61% of the securities related AOCI should accrete back to equity by the end of 2028.

假設遠期曲線得以實現，到 2025 年底，與證券損失相關的 AOC I 中約 24% 將重新計入股本，在考慮任何未來收益之前，每股有形賬面價值將增加 6%。到 2028 年底，61% 的證券相關 AOCI 將重新回歸股本。

During the quarter, we completed $200 million in share repurchases, which reduced our share count by 4.9 million shares.

本季度，我們完成了 2 億美元的股票回購，這使我們的股票數量減少了 490 萬股。

As we assess our capital priorities, we continue to believe that 10.5% is an appropriate near term operating level.

在評估我們的資本優先事項時，我們仍然認為 10.5% 是合適的近期營運水準。

Moving to our current outlook, we anticipate continued growth in NII and NIM during the fourth quarter, with NII up 1% sequentially, reflecting the impact of lower deposit rates and the continued benefit of fixed rate asset repricing partially offset by the decrease in yield from our floating rate loan portfolio.

轉向我們目前的展望，我們預計第四季度NII和NIM將繼續成長，其中NII環比增長1%，反映出存款利率下降的影響以及固定利率資產重新定價的持續好處，部分被收益率下降所抵消。我們的浮動利率貸款組合。

This outlook assumes a 25 basis point cut in November and a 50 basis point cut in December.

該展望假設 11 月降息 25 個基點，12 月降息 50 個基點。

We would not expect any change to this outlook if your rate cuts were to occur.

如果降息，我們預計這一前景不會發生任何變化。

We expect average total loan balances to be stable to up 1% from the third quarter with middle market and auto production offsetting mixed demand in other asset classes.

我們預計平均總貸款餘額將穩定在第三季的 1% 左右，中間市場和汽車生產抵消了其他資產類別的混合需求。

Fourth quarter, adjusted non interest income is anticipated to rise 3% to 4% compared to the strong third quarter, largely due to a continued rebound in capital markets revenue and continued growth in commercial payments.

與強勁的第三季相比，第四季調整後的非利息收入預計將成長 3% 至 4%，這主要得益於資本市場收入的持續反彈和商業支付的持續成長。

Additionally, we expect fourth quarter TRA revenue to be $10 million down from $22 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

此外，我們預計第四季 TRA 營收將從 2023 年第四季的 2,200 萬美元減少到 1,000 萬美元。

Fourth quarter, total adjusted non interest expenses are expected to be stable compared to the third quarter as the increases in revenue based compensation and the investments in branches and technology are largely offset by efficiencies achieved in other areas.

第四季度，調整後非利息支出總額預計將與第三季度相比保持穩定，因為基於收入的薪酬以及分支機構和技術投資的增加在很大程度上被其他領域實現的效率所抵消。

Fourth quarter, net charge offs are projected to be similar or slightly down from the third quarter.

第四季的淨沖銷預計與第三季相似或略有下降。

Given the expected increase in loans during the fourth quarter, we anticipate an ACL build of $20 million to $40 million assuming no major change to the economic outlook.

考慮到第四季度貸款的預期增加，假設經濟前景沒有重大變化，我們預計 ACL 將增加 2,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元。

We expect to deliver positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter on both a sequential and a year-over-year basis and our PP and our guidance for the full year remains in line with our guidance from back in January.

我們預計第四季度將實現環比和同比的正營運槓桿，並且我們的 PP 和全年指導仍與 1 月的指導保持一致。

Our net interest income trajectory exiting the year continues to position us for record results in 2025, assuming no major economic or interest rate outlook changes.

假設經濟或利率前景沒有重大變化，我們今年結束的淨利息收入軌跡將繼續使我們在 2025 年取得創紀錄的業績。

Finally moving to capital.

終於搬到首都了。

With our consistent and strong earnings, we now expect to increase our share repurchases in the fourth quarter to $300 million with potential further repurchases depending on the level of loan growth throughout the quarter.

憑藉我們持續強勁的獲利，我們現在預計將第四季度的股票回購額增加到 3 億美元，並可能根據整個季度的貸款成長水準進一步回購。

In summary, with our well positioned balance sheet, growing revenue streams and disciplined expense and credit risk management, we are set to generate strong and stable capital accretion, top quartile profitability and long term value for shareholders, customers, communities and employees.

總而言之，憑藉我們良好的資產負債表、不斷增長的收入流以及嚴格的費用和信用風險管理，我們將為股東、客戶、社區和員工帶來強勁而穩定的資本增值、最高四分之一的盈利能力和長期價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open the call up for Q&A.

接下來，讓我將其轉交給馬特，以開始問答環節。

Thanks Bryan.

謝謝布萊恩。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning, everyone.

早安，大家。

Thanks for taking the call.

感謝您接聽電話。

Hey, I was hoping you might be able to discuss sort of just the main puts and takes you see in the fourth quarter NII guide, in particular curious about how you're thinking about, the further trajectory of deposit data and sort of how that evolves over time, given that you've had, you've been very transparent about it and have an optimistic outlook there as well.

嘿，我希望您能夠討論一下您在第四季度 NII 指南中看到的主要看跌期權和建議，特別是對您的想法感到好奇，存款數據的進一步軌跡以及如何隨著時間的推移，事情會發生變化，考慮到你已經經歷過，你對此非常透明，並且對此也抱有樂觀的前景。

Yeah, absolutely. we continue to feel really good about the trajectory of the NII as well as the performance on the deposit front.

是的，絕對是。我們仍然對 NII 的發展軌跡以及存款方面的表現感到非常滿意。

As you know, we've spent a lot of time being prepared for this point in the cycle and things are playing out basically as we expected.

如您所知，我們花了很多時間為週期中的這一點做好準備，事情的進展基本上符合我們的預期。

When we look at both our results and pure results, the natural transition that you would expect is broker deposits, wholesale funding borrowings to start to come down.

當我們審視我們的業績和純粹的業績時，你所期望的自然轉變是經紀人存款、批發融資借款開始下降。

That's what we're seeing after seeing play out.

這就是我們在觀看比賽後所看到的。

And then also then to start to see when that has been fully realized that movement and the data and that's exactly what we're seeing from us and the competition.

然後也要開始看看何時完全意識到這一點，即運動和數據，而這正是我們從我們和競爭對手那裡看到的。

For us. $35 billion of the index deposits, we were able to get the beta out of those as expected to date.

對於我們來說。 350 億美元的指數存款，我們能夠按照迄今為止的預期從這些存款中獲得貝塔值。

We're about in the mid 40s in terms of the beta that we've achieved since the 50 basis point rate cut.

自降息 50 個基點以來，我們所實現的貝塔值約為 40 多歲。

And we still have $13 billion $14 billion of CDs.

我們還有價值 130 億美元、140 億美元的 CD。

That will be approaching maturity about 75% of our CD portfolio (inaudible) between now and the end of the first quarter, as well as some additional promos that we'll see maturities on and we'll continue to grind through the deposit costs in other areas of the book.

從現在到第一季末，我們的 CD 投資組合的約 75%（聽不清楚）將接近到期，以及我們將看到到期的一些額外促銷，我們將繼續努力降低存款成本本書的其他部分。

So continue to feel really good about that as the trajectory plays out.

因此，隨著軌蹟的發展，繼續對此感覺良好。

And then the fixed rate asset repricing and that benefit continues to be a sequential tailwind for us and that's going to continue into the fourth quarter of next year and that'll be a big driver of the increase NII from here.

然後，固定利率資產重新定價和這種好處繼續對我們來說是一個連續的推動力，這將持續到明年第四季度，這將是 NII 成長的一大推動力。

Okay, perfect.

好的，完美。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe looking at a little further, I know you've discussed generating record NII in 2025, would love to hear any updated thoughts there.

也許看得更遠一點，我知道您已經討論過在 2025 年產生創紀錄的 NII，很想聽聽任何更新的想法。

I guess including what kind of lending rebound might be required to achieve that.

我想包括可能需要什麼樣的貸款反彈才能實現這一目標。

It sounded like, maybe a bit more optimistic on what lending demand might look like given some of the signs of life you referred to in your

聽起來，考慮到您在報告中提到的一些生命跡象，也許對貸款需求可能會更加樂觀。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Yeah, we are seeing some more activity there.

是的，我們在那裡看到了更多活動。

We don't need need heroic loan growth to deliver record NII The, how the NI I is delivered is obviously going to be very environment dependent.

我們不需要貸款大幅成長來實現創紀錄的NII。

So shape of the curve is going to matter.

因此曲線的形狀很重要。

We do expect to start to see some tailwinds on the loan growth side, given what we've seen.

鑑於我們所看到的情況，我們確實預計貸款成長方面將開始出現一些順風車。

The decreases from a commercial perspective, we think for the most part are behind us and we're seeing nice tailwinds in the consumer businesses that will be a big driver of how we transition into a long growth from here.

從商業角度來看，我們認為大部分下降已經過去，我們看到消費業務的良好順風，這將成為我們從這裡過渡到長期成長的重要推動力。

So, we would like to see a little bit of loan growth that certainly would be helpful in terms of delivering that record NII.

因此，我們希望看到一點點貸款成長，這肯定有助於實現創紀錄的NII。

But we feel good about the trajectory from here.

但我們對這裡的發展軌跡感覺良好。

Got you.

明白你了。

Perfect All. Thank you very much, Bryan.

完美的一切。非常感謝你，布萊恩。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, Tim, Hi, Bryan.

嗨，提姆，嗨，布萊恩。

Morning.

早晨。

Can you guys, I posed this question to one of your peers yesterday when I framed it out, part of the response was it was a rosy outlook.

你們可以嗎？

So I'll give that as a caveat to you.

所以我將這一點當作對你的警告。

But can you share with us, I'm curious and, I'm not asking for specific '25 guidance, but if the Fed continues with dropping rates the way they appear to be in terms of the forward curve and their own outlook.

但你能否與我們分享一下，我很好奇，我並不是要求提供具體的 25 年指導，但聯準會是否繼續按照遠期曲線和自身前景的方式降息。

And we actually go from an inverted yield curve that we've lived with for over two years now to a positively sloping curve with the front end drops to [3, 3.5], the long end stays around

事實上，我們從兩年多來一直存在的倒掛殖利率曲線轉變為正傾斜曲線，前端下降到 [3, 3.5]，長端保持在附近

[4 to 4.5].

[4至4.5]。

Can you share with us, what kind of impact that may have on your net interest income growth for '25?

您能否與我們分享一下，這可能會對您 25 年的淨利息收入成長產生什麼樣的影響？

Yeah, obviously, Gerard, we'll give more detail in next year on 2025.

是的，顯然，傑拉德，我們將在明年 2025 年提供更多細節。

But if we can actually get a little bit more steepness in the curve, get the inversion out of the curve, that is very powerful for us from an NII perspective from here because we would expect to see some relief on the liability side of the balance sheet.

但是，如果我們實際上可以讓曲線變得更陡一些，使曲線出現反轉，從這裡的NII角度來看，這對我們來說非常強大，因為我們期望看到平衡的負債方面有所緩解床單。

We will be, we do continue to have confidence that we will get cost out.

我們將會，我們仍然有信心我們能夠消除成本。

And the thing that's not reflected in the our forward guidance right now is an assumption that we're going to be able to maintain the fixed rate asset spreads.

目前我們的前瞻性指引中並沒有反映出我們將能夠維持固定利率資產利差的假設。

We do assume that there is compression as rates come down.

我們確實假設隨著費率下降，會出現壓縮。

And if we were to get to a normal shape curve, there would be even more benefit than from the fixed rate asset we're pricing.

如果我們要達到正常的形狀曲線，那麼比我們定價的固定利率資產帶來的好處甚至更多。

And we would also have a little bit of opportunity to get some, a little bit more economics out of duration and the security portfolio and then the swap portfolio over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們還有機會從久期和證券投資組合以及掉期投資組合中獲得更多的經濟效益。

So that'd be a really productive environment for us and we would see it, over time, you would see a significant expansion

因此，這對我們來說是一個真正富有成效的環境，我們會看到，隨著時間的推移，你會看到顯著的擴張

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

And at least for what it's worth Gerard.

至少對傑拉德來說它是值得的。

I don't know that I see your outlook as being overly rosy in that regard.

我不知道你在這方面的前景是否過於樂觀。

I just think it's probably a reflection of what both the Feds actions and the data would tell us that is realistic.

我只是認為這可能反映了聯準會的行動和數據告訴我們的現實情況。

It probably feels rosy because we just haven't seen in an environment like that over a very long time.

這可能感覺很美好，因為我們已經很久沒有在這樣的環境中見過了。

It was a very long time period, 20 years or something like that, right?

那是一段很長的時間，20年或類似的時間，對吧？

Either we had absolute rates at zero on the front end and a little bit of slow, but we had this situation now where the front end was elevated and you had a historic level of inversion without a recession.

要么我們的前端絕對利率為零，而且有點慢，但我們現在遇到的情況是，前端升高，並且出現了歷史性的倒掛水平，但沒有出現衰退。

If the Fed manages to land the plane here, that front end comes down, I think our view that has been that the 10 year was probably going to be stickier.

如果聯準會設法讓飛機降落在這裡，那麼前端就會下降，我認為我們一直認為 10 年可能會更加棘手。

It just, you're talking about on an intermediate term basis,.

只是，你所說的是中期的基礎。

Inherently more inflationary dynamics including the domestic manufacturing industrial policy, the green energy transition, the historic level of fiscal deficits that we're running like, those are all things that should work against the long end of the curve moving meaningfully lower.

本質上更多的通膨動態，包括國內製造業產業政策、綠色能源轉型、我們目前的財政赤字歷史水平，這些都應該會阻止曲線長端大幅下降。

And potentially even you could see, if the Fed settles out of the [3 or 3.5], the long end of the curve move up a little bit.

甚至你也可能會看到，如果聯準會退出 [3 或 3.5]，曲線的長端會稍微向上移動。

So you get more of a normal term premium.

因此您可以獲得更多的正常期限保費。

That sort of an environment, if it doesn't come along with some other issue would be a really wonderful one for the balance sheet portion of our revenue.

這種環境，如果不伴隨其他一些問題，對於我們收入的資產負債表部分來說將是一個非常好的環境。

Very good.

非常好。

And then can you guys remind us, you talked about lifting up the buyback a bit in the fourth quarter.

然後你們能提醒我們嗎，你們談到了在第四季稍微加大回購力道。

Bryan, you talked about how the tangible book value accretion, how it's going to come through just the burn off of that the securities portfolio for the end of '25.

布萊恩，您談到了有形帳面價值如何增加，以及它將如何透過 25 年底證券投資組合的消耗來實現。

Can you remind us in an environment where you know what the (inaudible) end game requirements are, which hopefully we will obviously by this time next year, what should we expect in terms of how much of the capital that you guys are comfortable giving back to shareholders as a percentage of earnings, for example, in dividends and buybacks?

您能否提醒我們，在您知道（聽不清楚）最終遊戲要求是什麼的環境中，希望我們在明年這個時候顯然能夠做到這一點，就你們願意回饋多少資本而言，我們應該期望什麼股東收益佔收益的百分比，例如股利和回購？

Yeah, our target right now in normalized environments, we like being in say, a 35% to 45% range from a dividend payout ratio perspective.

是的，我們現在在正常化環境下的目標，從股息支付率的角度來看，我們喜歡在 35% 到 45% 的範圍內。

The share buyback ultimately is driven by how much capacity we have relative to organic growth.

股票回購最終取決於我們相對於有機成長的產能。

Because we do our preference would be to continue to invest on the organic front when we see good risk adjusted returns.

因為當我們看到良好的風險調整回報時，我們傾向於繼續在有機方面進行投資。

And then with what's left, we manage capital via the share buybacks.

然後用剩下的錢，我們透過股票回購來管理資本。

Continue to feel good with the capital generation that we've been seeing that $200million or $300 million of share buybacks feel about the right level.

繼續對資本產生感到滿意，我們已經看到 2 億或 3 億美元的股票回購感覺處於合適的水平。

This quarter, we saw a little bit of benefit in our WA, which allows us to potentially have a little bit more share buyback, but with some loan growth coming in next year, hopefully we'll be talking about a little bit lower buyback over time just because we've got a lot more organic opportunities to invest in.

本季度，我們在 WA 中看到了一些好處，這使我們有可能進行更多的股票回購，但隨著明年貸款的增長，希望我們能討論稍微低一點的回購時間只是因為我們有更多的有機投資機會。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

Hey, just to follow up on the, you said the loan production is the highest in five quarters and then quarter-over-quarter loan growth is flat, right?

嘿，跟進一下，您說貸款產量是五個季度以來最高的，然後貸款環比增長持平，對吧？

So if you could just give a little bit more detail, like how much would loans have grown without pay downs?

因此，如果您能提供更多細節，例如在不還款的情況下貸款會增加多少？

And why are you seeing more of this?

為什麼你會看到更多這樣的事？

That it sounds like you said there's signs of life, but you know, is it bigger than a bread box sort of what you think might come ahead?

聽起來你說有生命跡象，但你知道，它比你認為可能出現的麵包盒還要大嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Oh yes, thanks Mike.

哦，是的，謝謝邁克。

The paydowns for the quarter were around say, $900 million million, a bit elevated from what we would typically see in some of the portfolios, as well as we had a utilization headwind of about 1% because we did see the revolver utilization moved down.

該季度的支付額約為 9 億美元，比我們通常在某些投資組合中看到的水平略高，而且我們的利用率下降了約 1%，因為我們確實看到左輪手槍利用率下降。

That 1% decreases, another say $800 million.

另一個說減少了 1%，即 8 億美元。

So the combination of those two were decent driver ultimately from a overall average loan growth and then the period long perspective.

因此，從整體平均貸款成長以及長期角度來看，這兩者的結合最終是一個不錯的驅動力。

We're not expecting continued pressures at this point and we've seen utilization stabilize in the second half of the quarter and in the beginning of this quarter.

我們預計目前不會持續面臨壓力，並且我們已經看到利用率在本季下半年和本季初趨於穩定。

So that doesn't feel like a headwind for us right now.

所以現在這對我們來說並不像是個逆風。

The capital markets activity, obviously, it was a very robust capital markets activity in the second quarter, third quarter we do think that fed into some of the pay down behaviors that we're seeing.

顯然，資本市場活動在第二季和第三季都是非常強勁的資本市場活動，我們確實認為這促成了我們所看到的一些減薪行為。

But from here, we're expecting to get back to a little bit more normalized level and we think that helps then with loan growth from here.

但從現在開始，我們預計會回到更正常化的水平，我們認為這有助於貸款成長。

And as far as, if you had to (inaudible) kind of expectations of, for the next several quarters over the next year, are you willing to give us any number yet?

至於，如果您必須（聽不清楚）對明年接下來的幾個季度的期望，您願意給我們任何數字嗎？

You think it'll be more than 1% or 2% or I mean, I'm sure you're going to--

你認為它會超過 1% 或 2%，或者我的意思是，我確信你會——

We get average loan growth guide, obviously of up 1% sequentially.

我們得到平均貸款成長指引，顯然是季增 1%。

We'll get into 2025 in more detail next year.

我們將於明年更詳細地討論 2025 年。

But in general, our objective would be to grow with the market plus

但總的來說，我們的目標是與市場一起成長

[a point or two].

[一兩點]。

Historically, the banking industry grows in line with GDP, nominal GDP type level.

從歷史上看，銀行業的成長與GDP、名目GDP類型水準一致。

And if we get back to that kind of environment and the industry gets back to overall aggregate growth, we would expect to be in line if not outperforming the industry.

如果我們回到那種環境並且產業恢復整體整體成長，我們預計即使沒有超越產業，也會保持一致。

Yeah, I, I think, Mike, it's, it's Tim, The one thing I maybe I'd add here, I am of the view that the factors that would lead to a more favorable environment for loan growth inside the banking system are potentially in front of us, subject to one who wins the election and probably more importantly what of the things that both candidates are campaigning on actually make their way into policy and how they elect to govern.

是的，我，我想，麥克，是，是提姆，我可能要在這裡補充一件事，我認為，可能會為銀行體系內部的貸款成長創造更有利的環境的因素是在我們面前，取決於誰贏得了選舉，或許更重要的是，兩位候選人競選的內容實際上如何影響政策以及他們選擇的執政方式。

What we hear from clients when I'm out in the field is that, it's one, the elevated level of rates have been challenging because there's a capital investments that don't make sense, just don't pencil out in an environment where rates are higher.

當我在現場時，我們從客戶那裡聽到的是，利率水平的升高一直具有挑戰性，因為存在沒有意義的資本投資，只是不要在利率水平較高的環境中進行投資。

Two, because they are uncertain about what we're going to see in the election.

第二，因為他們不確定我們將在選舉中看到什麼。

They have been using cash flow from the businesses to pay down debt in lieu of investing it in another place.

他們一直在利用企業的現金流來償還債務，而不是將其投資到其他地方。

And three, you have this big build up in the inventory in the '21, '22, '23 timeframe associated with people moving.

第三，在「21」、「22」、「23」時間範圍內，與人員流動相關的庫存會大量增加。

I think we refer to it as the shift from just in time to just in case in inventories.

我認為我們將其稱為庫存從及時到以防萬一的轉變。

As rates came up, we have seen, I think the term for that one of our distribution clients, our wholesale distribution clients used (inaudible) last week with destocking.

隨著費率的上升，我們已經看到，我認為我們的分銷客戶之一，我們的批發分銷客戶上週使用（聽不清楚）去庫存的術語。

So less inventory, less bill material across supply chains which in turn, and a focus on more inventory terms just getting the balance sheet to work harder, which reduces the revolving credit borrowing needs.

因此，庫存減少，整個供應鏈的帳單材料減少，而對更多庫存條款的關注只會讓資產負債表更加努力，從而減少循環信貸需求。

That can't go to zero.

那不可能歸零。

So you're not going to have a headwind there.

所以你不會在那裡遇到逆風。

If interest rates come down and more M&A and capital investment starts to make sense that hasn't worked, you should see a pick up on that front.

如果利率下降，更多的併購和資本投資開始有意義，但並未奏效，那麼您應該會看到這方面的回升。

And then if we continue to see, more certainty as it relates to the trajectory of the economy and have the uncertainty attached to the election out of the equation, I think we could see a better environment across the banking system and that coupled with the sales head counts that we continue to make, we referenced that in the prepared remarks should support the, at to above the market growth rate on the lending side of the equation that Bryan referenced earlier.

然後，如果我們繼續看到與經濟軌跡相關的更多確定性，並且排除與選舉相關的不確定性，我認為我們可以看到整個銀行體係以及銷售的更好環境我們繼續進行統計，我們在準備好的評論中提到，應該支持布萊恩之前提到的等式貸款方面的市場成長率高於市場成長率。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess just a couple of follow ups.

我想只有幾個後續行動。

One maybe starting with loan growth.

其中之一可能是從貸款成長開始。

Tim, you mentioned two things, one from Fifth Third standpoint.

提姆，你提到了兩件事，一件事是從第五第三的角度來看的。

Are we still lapping de risking or running off the shared national credit book?

我們是否仍在努力降低風險或耗盡共享的國家信用簿？

I think it's down 11% year over year.

我認為同比下降了 11%。

Just give us your sense of is that book going to continue to decline as you kind of reduce your exposure there.

請告訴我們您的感覺是，隨著您減少在那裡的曝光度，這本書將繼續下降。

And secondly, in your business, are you seeing any competition from non-bank direct lenders private credit?

其次，在您的業務中，您是否看到來自非銀行直接貸款機構私人信貸的競爭？

That would, that looks different today than it would have 345 years ago?

那今天看起來和 345 年前會不一樣嗎？

Yeah, sure, good question.

是的，當然，好問題。

So we should be at the inflection point on the sort of impact of the RW a diet by the end of the year.

因此，到今年年底，我們應該會處於 RW 飲食影響的轉折點。

We, I think we talked last year about the fact that we were trying to get everything done in the fourth quarter.

我想我們去年就談到了我們試圖在第四季度完成所有工作的事實。

There would be a little bit of a spill over into the first as you just got through normal timing.

當你剛度過正常的時間時，會有一點溢出到第一個。

But we should be reaching the inflection point on that front where you don't have the you know, that I need less de risking than a focus on.

但我們應該在這方面達到轉折點，你沒有你知道的，我需要減少風險而不是專注。

What would the profitability, the unit economics of those relationships look like in a world where you had a different perspective on capital levels and the value of the corporate cash that comes along with some of those larger relationships and as it relates to private credit, but we do see it at the margins principally in the leveraged lending space.

如果你對資本水準和公司現金價值有不同的看法，這些關係伴隨著一些更大的關係，並且與私人信貸相關，那麼這些關係的盈利能力和單位經濟學會是什麼樣子，但是我們確實在槓桿貸款領域看到了它的邊緣。

What I would tell you has happened is their focus on less structure, faster execution, then has a little bit of a bleed over in other areas.

我想告訴你的是，他們專注於更少的結構、更快的執行，然後在其他領域出現了一些流失。

And there is no question that you know, the things that some of the private lenders are willing to do or not in line with the way that we want to run our pro was the Financial Times the Journal.

毫無疑問，你知道，一些私人貸款機構願意做或不符合我們希望運營我們的專業人士的方式的事情是《金融時報》和《華爾街日報》。

But there was a piece about a week ago in the paper that talked about payment in kind or where I come from negative amortization lending was between a quarter and a third of the portfolios at most of the major private credit shops.

但大約一周前，報紙上有一篇文章談到了實物支付，或者我來自負攤銷貸款的情況，在大多數主要私人信貸商店的投資組合中佔四分之一到三分之一。

That is definitely not something you would ever see at Fifth Third in an environment where the economic backdrop is benign.

在經濟背景良好的環境下，這絕對是你在第五三線不會看到的。

And where you don't have you know, a large percentage of your company operating at distress levels.

在您不知道的情況下，您公司的很大一部分都在困境中運作。

It's just odd to see that amount of pick lending going on.

看到如此大量的精選貸款正在發生，這很奇怪。

So I, you know, they're willing to do those things and we're not by definition, they're going to scrape the most indebted companies out of the banking sector.

所以我，你知道，他們願意做這些事情，而我們並不是按照定義，他們會把負債最多的公司從銀行業中剔除。

And Ebrahim, it's Bryan, the we put a little bit of detail on the SNC portfolio on slide 24 of our slide and you know, $31 billion portfolio, it's down 11% year over year, but we are still facing lapping some of that headline,

Ebrahim，我是 Bryan，我們在幻燈片 24 上介紹了 SNC 投資組合的一些細節，你知道，310 億美元的投資組合，同比下降了 11%，但我們仍然面臨著一些標題的問題,

But what was the point that we are at a point where the $31.2 billion is close to where this book should bottom out.

但現在 312 億美元的票房已經接近這本書應該觸底的水平了，這是什麼意思呢？

I think you're going to continue to see some run off, but we do think you're getting back to the point where you'll start to see some production coming in and offsetting it not, it may not be exactly at the floor but the decreases should definitely be moderating--

我認為你會繼續看到一些流失，但我們確實認為你會回到這樣的狀態，你會開始看到一些生產進入並抵消它，它可能不完全在地板上但下降幅度肯定會放緩——

The CIB pipeline, the middle market pipeline, which I think we referenced in response to Mike's question is at an all-time record level and the CIB pipeline which would be where the majority of the shared national credits would originate is at the highest level it has been in a year.

我認為我們在回答麥克的問題時提到的 CIB 管道，即中間市場管道，處於歷史最高水平，而 CIB 管道將是大多數共享國家信貸的來源，處於最高水平。

So that you're seeing the turn there which should support the decline and run off increase in production and an inflection point loan balances.

因此，您會看到那裡的轉變，這應該會支持產量的下降和流失增加以及貸款餘額的轉折點。

And just the other question on capital allocation means your stock's done.

關於資本配置的另一個問題意味著你的股票已經完成了。

Well, I'm not saying it's expensive but it stayed well on tangible book.

好吧，我並不是說它很貴，但它在有形書籍上保持得很好。

When you look at it, why not hold excess capital as opposed to picking up the pace of buybacks?

當你審視它時，為什麼不持有多餘的資本而不是加快回購的步伐？

Given that we might be in an improving economy if that happens more capital, good for growth.

鑑於如果出現更多資本，我們的經濟可能會有所改善，這有利於成長。

If it's worse, it adds defensibility, just talk through in terms of how you go through capital allocation and the whole discussion or analysis around holding on and building some more excess dry powder as opposed to accelerating buybacks from here.

如果情況更糟，它會增加防禦性，只需談談如何進行資本配置以及圍繞持有和建立更多多餘的乾粉而不是從這裡加速回購的整個討論或分析。

Yeah, I mean, we feel really good for one about the earnings trajectory of the company and we think given that we feel like our stock is continues to be a good bargain for us and we think it's a good investment for us from a corporate perspective.

是的，我的意思是，我們對公司的獲利軌跡感到非常滿意，而且我們認為，鑑於我們認為我們的股票對我們來說仍然很划算，我們認為從企業角度來看，這對我們來說是一項很好的投資。

You know, we look at a couple of things on that front, we're generating a lot of capital every quarter.

你知道，我們在這方面考慮了一些事情，我們每季都會產生大量資本。

And so that actually gives us the ability to be very dynamic with our capital allocation decisions.

因此，這實際上使我們能夠動態地做出資本配置決策。

We have a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to generate the capital necessary for organic growth.

我們非常有信心能夠籌集有機成長所需的資本。

And then if we wanted to slow down capital distribution via share buybacks, because we see more opportunity or we need to get more defensive, we would be able to do that.

然後，如果我們想透過股票回購來減緩資本分配，因為我們看到了更多機會，或者我們需要採取更多防禦措施，我們就能夠做到這一點。

Another component is just, you know, when you think about our industry and the 10% cost of equity sitting on excess capital is a high cost for our shareholders.

另一個組成部分是，你知道，當你考慮我們的行業時，多餘資本的 10% 股權成本對我們的股東來說是很高的成本。

And so being in a position as we are right now and being able to go ahead and make some decisions and deploy at a time where we continue to feel really positive about our trajectory as a company and knowing that we have the flexibility with the income profile and the stability that we have going forward to degenerate the capital when we would need to.

因此，我們現在所處的位置，能夠繼續做出一些決策，並在我們繼續對我們作為一家公司的發展軌跡感到非常積極的時候進行部署，並且知道我們在收入狀況方面具有靈活性以及我們在需要時可以使首都退化的穩定性。

And if we think different opportunities would present themselves, that's really the thought process on how we're thinking about capital allocation from here.

如果我們認為不同的機會會出現，那麼這實際上就是我們如何從這裡考慮資本配置的思考過程。

Noted.

著名的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

My first question is for you, Bryan.

我的第一個問題是問你的，布萊恩。

So you indicated your deposit beta so far on the recent cuts are in the mid-40s.

因此，您表示，到目前為止，最近削減的存款貝塔值在 40 多歲左右。

You know, as we think about the speed of index deposit repricing and then retail, could you give us a sense of what you think the cadence could be as we go through the next five quarters.

您知道，當我們考慮指數存款重新定價和零售的速度時，您能否讓我們了解您認為未來五個季度的節奏。

So a few of your peers have noted that it might not be a straight line, you know, path to the terminal data given how quickly corporate can reprice and you know, retail has sort of been awoken, so to speak in terms of higher rates.

因此，您的一些同行已經指出，考慮到企業重新定價的速度，這可能不是一條直線，您知道，通往終端數據的路徑，而且您知道，零售業已經被喚醒，可以說，就更高的利率而言。

So if you could speak to that and maybe speak a little bit too, if you think about your deposits, you know, we haven't seen a neutral rate that's not zero for so long.

因此，如果您能談談這一點，也許也可以談談，如果您考慮一下您的存款，您就會知道，我們已經很久沒有看到非零的中性利率了。

So maybe help us get a sense of if we get a neutral rate of, you know, two and three quarters or 3% what do you think your natural spread is or natural deposit rate in that environment?

因此，也許可以幫助我們了解，如果我們獲得四分之二又三分之三或 3% 的中性利率，您認為在這種環境下您的自然利差或自然存款利率是多少？

Yeah, I mean, that is a obviously a very interesting question.

是的，我的意思是，這顯然是一個非常有趣的問題。

The shape of the curve is going to matter a lot in that scenario as well.

在這種情況下，曲線的形狀也很重要。

You know, when we think about the, when we think about the pacing of how the beta will come through, like you said, it is the commercial deposits will come through very quickly.

你知道，當我們考慮測試版的實施節奏時，就像你說的那樣，商業存款很快就會到位。

The retail takes a little bit longer, the two primary drivers for us on that, it's the guarantee periods on the promotional offerings which tend to be between say 45 and 90 days.

零售需要更長的時間，這是我們的兩個主要驅動因素，即促銷產品的保證期，通常在 45 到 90 天之間。

And then it's the maturities of your CRE portfolio.

然後是你的商業房地產投資組合的期限。

And as I mentioned there earlier, 75% of our CRE will mature between now and the end of the first quarter.

正如我之前提到的，我們 75% 的 CRE 將從現在到第一季末成熟。

So to get the rest of the beta and get to that kind of cumulative data that we have been targeting where, you know, high 50s kind of be for us, it'll take about two quarters because the CD with pricing is going to be a component of that.

因此，為了獲得測試版的其餘部分並獲得我們一直瞄準的累積數據，你知道，對我們來說，高 50 的數據大約需要兩個季度，因為帶有定價的 CD 將是其中的一個組成部分。

Now that that's $13 billion book from a natural level perspective, I think that is, that is really tough to estimate.

從自然水平的角度來看，這本書的價值為 130 億美元，我認為這確實很難估計。

I mean, we're sitting here at peak rates, we were at a 299-ish was our peak interest bearing core deposit cost versus a 550 FED funds level.

我的意思是，我們正處於峰值利率，與 550 美元的聯準會基金水準相比，我們的核心帶息存款成本高峰約為 299 美元。

You know, we would expect to see a little bit of compression potentially in that spread, but being able to maintain you know, 150 basis points to 200 basis points of deposit spread.

你知道，我們預期利差可能會稍微壓縮，但能夠維持 150 個基點到 200 個基點的存款利差。

Seems like a potentially achievable scenario.

似乎是一個可能實現的場景。

One big question on that Erica, another one that would obviously be a big question is just where, where does the, how does the magnitude of long growth change over time.

關於艾莉卡的一個大問題，另一個顯然是一個大問題是長期成長的幅度如何隨著時間的推移而改變。

And you've got a decent curve shape back to Gerard's question and you've got opportunities for long growth, you're going to have some opportunities to be a little bit more competitive to raise more deposits and ultimately drive better NII.

回到傑拉德的問題，你有一個不錯的曲線形狀，你有長期增長的機會，你將有一些機會變得更有競爭力，以籌集更多存款並最終推動更好的NII。

And at the end of the day, we're not managing the deposit data, we're managing the NII and profitability trajectory and those are the decisions in the trade-offs we make.

歸根究底，我們管理的不是存款數據，而是 NII 和獲利軌跡，這些都是我們在權衡中所做的決定。

Got it.

知道了。

And my second question is for Tim, Tim, the feedback from investors has always been quite positive in terms of the forward-looking way of how you look at the world.

我的第二個問題是提姆，提姆，投資人的回饋對於你看待世界的前瞻性方式一直非常正面。

And as we think about 2025 I guess it doesn't, it feels like given record and NII, and you know, your, your fee income should benefit if activity levels come back in general in an even bigger way next year.

當我們考慮 2025 年時，我想不會，感覺就像給定的記錄和 NII，而且你知道，如果明年活動水平總體上以更大的方式恢復，你的費用收入應該會受益。

It feels like the expense run rate that you posted year over year this quarter to 3% sounds it feels more appropriate.

感覺您本季公佈的年比費用運行率為 3% 聽起來更合適。

You know, obviously assuming that revenues grow above that, you know, as we think about 2025 is it right for us to you know, until we get guide from you, put growth in expenses as a placeholder.

你知道，顯然假設收入成長超過這個數字，你知道，當我們考慮 2025 年時，我們是否適合你知道，直到我們得到你的指導，將支出成長作為佔位符。

And as we think about 2025 what are the big projects that you feel like?

當我們思考 2025 年時，您希望有哪些大型專案？

You're ready to re tackle and revisit that you may have pulled back on in '24 because the NII dollars were coming down.

你已經準備好重新應對和重新審視你可能在 24 年因 NII 美元下降而撤回的事情。

Yes, I am.

我是。

So, thank you -- that I think there was a compliment and a question in there and I appreciate both.

所以，謝謝你——我認為其中有一個讚美和一個問題，我很感激。

And I, you've heard me reference, I think the old saying that Cincinnati invented hustle in the past that dates back to, Pete Rose's nickname and the fact that he sprinted to first base on a walk, I think that ethos is, I think a part of the way that we try to run the company, right is to sprint to first on a walk.

我，你已經聽到我提到了，我認為辛辛那提在過去發明了喧囂這句老話可以追溯到皮特·羅斯的綽號以及他在保送中衝刺到一壘的事實，我認為這種精神是，我我認為我們嘗試經營公司的方式之一就是衝刺，先走一步。

So we try to work on next year's problems in the year after that this year as opposed to waiting for that environment to materialize.

因此，我們嘗試在今年的後年解決明年的問題，而不是等待這種環境的實現。

And that part of why I think we made the NIM turn right, our NIM trough and then grew in the first quarter before most of our peers, the NII inflected positive in the second quarter over the first quarter, which was before most of the peers.

這就是為什麼我認為我們的淨利差（NIM）右轉，我們的淨利差（NIM）低谷，然後在第一季度先於大多數同業增長，NII 在第二季度比第一季度出現正值，領先大多數同行。

We got to real sequential positive operating leverage this quarter versus the last quarter.

與上季相比，本季我們實現了真正的連續正營運槓桿。

And we're saying we'll get there year over year next year.

我們說明年我們將年復一年地實現這一目標。

Like none of that involved us holding back on investments we thought were important to the company or would make sense, right?

就像這一切都不涉及我們抑制我們認為對公司重要或有意義的投資，對嗎？

We have, we're going to have built 30-plus branches this year in an environment where we were trying to manage expenses.

我們今年將在努力管理開支的環境中建立 30 多個分支機構。

We continued forward on the platform, modernization, the acquisitions we made and fin on the commercial payment side of fintech companies last year, we've continued to feed this year.

去年，我們持續在平台、現代化、收購和金融科技公司商業支付方面取得進展，今年我們將繼續提供支援。

And the hiring as I mentioned on the sales force and both in wealth management and in the middle market have been pretty significant.

正如我所提到的，銷售團隊、財富管理和中間市場的招募規模都相當大。

So you should expect us to do the same sorts of things next year and to expect the company through other efficiency initiatives to help self-fund you know, the investments along the way.

因此，你應該期望我們明年會做同樣的事情，並期望公司透過其他效率措施來幫助自籌資金，你知道，一路上的投資。

And we don't view strategic planning as an investment request process.

我們並不將策略規劃視為投資請求過程。

It's principally a resource allocation process.

這主要是資源分配過程。

So I don't know that I helped you with a specific number for 2025.

所以我不知道我是否為您提供了 2025 年的具體數字。

You have to wait till January to get that.

你必須等到一月才能得到它。

But the annualized expense run rate of the bank over a period of time has been call it 3% if you look at it.

但如果你看一下，銀行在一段時間內的年化費用運作率為3%。

So that's certainly if you were going to use the past an average through more benign periods and more challenging periods would be where you'd start.

因此，如果您要使用過去的平均值，那麼您應該從更溫和的時期和更具挑戰性的時期開始。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I wanted to ask about index deposits.

我想問一下關於指數存款的問題。

Can you talk about how they've behaved over time?

您能談談他們長期以來的表現嗎？

So I guess the question is that as rates fall and the rates on those index deposits fall.

所以我想問題是，隨著利率下降，這些指數存款的利率也會下降。

Is there a chance that some of those move into other deposit products with exception pricing or does that not really happen based on historical experience?

其中一些是否有可能進入其他定價異常的存款產品，或者根據歷史經驗，這種情況實際上不會發生？

But you'll see some people that try to do some negotiations on deposit cost, that's those are things that always occur, but those are things that we are typically able to manage fairly well.

但你會看到一些人試圖就押金成本進行一些談判，這些事情經常發生，但我們通常能夠很好地管理這些事情。

The reality is you get paid a better spread as a depositor on an index deposit because you're taking the risk ultimately on market movements.

現實情況是，作為指數存款的儲戶，您可以獲得更好的利差，因為您最終將承擔市場變動的風險。

Whereas on a managed account, it's typically a wider spread because we have more ability to manage it.

而在管理帳戶上，它通常會更廣泛，因為我們有更多的能力來管理它。

So we have something that we've had a good experience with behaving controlling it through our pricing and through our discipline around that process, we're not overly concerned about reverse migration from index back in the manager being a headwind from a beta perspective.

因此，我們在透過定價和圍繞該流程的紀律來控制它方面擁有良好的經驗，從測試的角度來看，我們並不太擔心從指數返回管理器的反向遷移是一種阻力。

Got it.

知道了。

And then, you know, maybe just separately on credit.

然後，你知道，也許只是單獨賒帳。

On slide 28 you're showing NCOS and NPAS reaching normalized levels.

在幻燈片 28 上，您展示了 NCOS 和 NPAS 達到了標準化水平。

And I know you noted that you're not seeing any signs of credit weakening.

我知道您注意到您沒有看到任何信貸疲軟的跡象。

Can you give us some more color there?

你能給我們更多的顏色嗎？

You know, what gives you some confidence that things are just normalizing here?

你知道，是什麼讓你有信心相信事情正在正常化？

Is it that rates are going down?

是不是利率要下降了？

So that helps you on the credit side?

那麼這在信用方面對你有幫助嗎？

Is it just what you're seeing on the road rates.

這只是你在道路費率上看到的嗎？

Maybe, you know what helps us this to stabilize from here.

也許，你知道是什麼幫助我們從這裡穩定下來。

Yeah, it's Greg, I'll take that one.

是的，我是格雷格，我就選那個。

A couple things you look at our delinquencies or delinquencies continue to be at all time.

您會看到我們的拖欠或拖欠的一些事情始終存在。

Low levels.

低水平。

Our criticized assets actually went down by $8 million quarter over quarter.

我們受到批評的資產實際上比上一季減少了 800 萬美元。

We had, we had the, the increase in NPAS.

我們的 NPAS 有所增加。

On the commercial side, those were driven by five names and five different industries.

在商業方面，這些是由五個名字和五個不同行業驅動的。

We've been very consistent about a very diverse portfolio and it continues to be very diverse.

我們對於非常多樣化的投資組合一直非常一致，而且它仍然非常多樣化。

On the consumer side, we're seeing a little bit of softness on dividend, see a little bit of softness in the RV portfolio.

在消費者方面，我們看到股利有點疲軟，房車投資組合也有點疲軟。

When you look at the '22, '23 origination villages, they're underperforming across many of the consumer asset classes.

當你觀察「22」、「23」的起源村時，你會發現它們在許多消費資產類別中表現不佳。

We see the same thing in the portfolio specifically in dividend and, and RV.

我們在投資組合中看到了同樣的事情，特別是股息和 RV。

But the securitization data from other originators will tell you the same thing we're actually outperforming those indexes that securitization data by almost 50 basis points, 60 basis points.

但其他發起人的證券化數據會告訴您同樣的事情，我們實際上比那些證券化數據的指數高了近 50 個基點、60 個基點。

And so I would expect a dividend to be a little bit elevated for the next quarter or two.

因此，我預計未來一兩個季度的股息將略有增加。

But, but then I'm highly confident that we'll work through those vintages and it comes back down to more normalized level and that, that 125 level.

但是，但我非常有信心，我們將努力完成這些年份，並將其恢復到更正常化的水平，即 125 水平。

So we're just not seeing any anything within the portfolios commercial or consumer that's that causing additional concern.

因此，我們在商業或消費者投資組合中沒有看到任何引起額外擔憂的內容。

It's been pretty stable.

一直很穩定。

Our borrowers have had continued to behave.

我們的借款人一直表現良好。

You see the commercial real estate portfolio.

您會看到商業房地產投資組合。

We've got virtually no delinquencies, very, very minimal non-performing assets in that commercial real estate portfolio.

我們的商業房地產投資組合中幾乎沒有拖欠，不良資產非常非常少。

So across the board that diversification, that strategic play of building out and through the cycle portfolio has played well for us and I would expect that to continue in the future.

因此，全面的多元化、建構並貫穿週期投資組合的策略對我們來說發揮了良好的作用，我希望這種情況在未來能夠繼續下去。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt O-Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

On slide 10, you've got some pie charts show you showed before just showing the mid shift from the Midwest to being more balanced.

在投影片 10 上，您有一些圓餅圖顯示您在剛剛顯示從中西部到更平衡的中間轉變之前顯示的內容。

And I guess the question is as we look out the next few years, you show the split getting to 50-50 which is still a pretty meaningful re-shift from here.

我想問題是，當我們展望未來幾年時，你會看到差距達到 50-50，這仍然是一個非常有意義的重新轉變。

So how do you get there?

那麼要如何到達那裡呢？

Is it simply harvesting what you've done?

只是收穫你所做的一切嗎？

A combination of harvesting and building.

收穫和建造的結合。

Is there a bi-component of that as well?

這也有雙重成分嗎？

Yeah, there's no by component in there.

是的，裡面沒有 by 元件。

That's the old fashioned way, which is one new branch at a time and the right marketing and product strategies to support the increase in distribution.

這是一種老式的方式，一次一個新分支，並採用正確的營銷和產品策略來支持分銷的增加。

So if you look at the branches we built man, they're performing very well.

因此，如果你看看我們建造的分支，你會發現它們的性能非常好。

We talked in the past about the fact that the performance at this stage and having built more than 100 of them is pretty predictable.

我們過去談到過這樣一個事實，即現階段的性能以及建造了 100 多個這樣的性能是相當可預測的。

And they reach a point where they sort of saturate their catchment area in about seven years, right.

他們在大約七年內達到了他們的服務區域飽和的地步，對吧。

They break even within two.

他們在兩秒之內就收支平衡。

And then they make this pivot to continuing growth.

然後他們將重點轉向持續成長。

So the average age of the [DeNovo] right now is going to be like call it 2 years, 2.5 years at the most.

所以現在 [DeNovo] 的平均年齡大概是 2 年，最多 2.5 年。

So there is a five year tailwind we'll get from the 100 that are already in the ground and operational.

因此，我們將從 100 個已經落地並投入運作的項目中獲得五年的利好。

Plus, we have been building about 30 to 35 a year.

另外，我們每年建造大約 30 到 35 個。

That number should move up into the sort of 40 to 50 range on an annualized basis.

以年化計算，這個數字應該會上升到 40 到 50 左右。

Just based on what we have in the pipeline.

只是基於我們正在準備的內容。

And as those branches come online, you will see that mix shift play out first in the allocation of the physical distribution and then behind that over time as they mature the mix of the deposit base on the retail side overall.

當這些分支機構上線時，您將看到混合轉變首先在實體分配的分配中發揮作用，然後隨著時間的推移，隨著它們在零售方面整體存款基礎的組合的成熟，混合轉變將發揮作用。

Okay.

好的。

So that's super helpful.

所以這非常有幫助。

So a lot of maturing of what you've already done, we will move the needle quite a bit.

因此，在你們已經完成的工作的基礎上，我們將取得巨大進展。

And then just and then just you can see it--

然後你就可以看到它——

In the year over year deposit growth that I cited from the FDIC summary deposits.

我從 FDIC 存款摘要中引用了同比存款增長情況。

It's visible there.

那裡是可見的。

Right here and then just separately, I know there's been a lot of discussion on the interest income and kind of drivers of the NIM.

就在這裡，然後分別，我知道有很多關於利息收入和淨利差驅動因素的討論。

And I'm sorry if I missed it, but have you guys talked about this concept of like normalized NIM?

如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但你們談論過標準化 NIM 的概念嗎？

Looking at a few years that you get the fixed rate, asset re price and whatever rates do break the flow curve and any concept of normalizing them.

看看幾年來你得到的固定利率、資產重新定價以及任何打破流量曲線的利率以及任何將它們標準化的概念。

Yeah, I mean, that's again, it's another tough one because what does the environment look like?

是的，我的意思是，這又是一個艱難的問題，因為環境是什麼樣的？

What does the shape of the curve look like out in the future?

未來的曲線形狀會是什麼樣子？

If you just take the, the, the cash position that we're holding today, we're, you know, we're at the $20 billion of cash, we're up almost $9 billion year over year.

如果你看看我們今天持有的現金頭寸，你知道，我們擁有 200 億美元的現金，我們比去年同期成長了近 90 億美元。

Every billion dollars of excess cash that we're holding is a basis point to have on them.

我們持有的每一十億美元多餘現金都是它們的基點。

So just getting $10 billion out over the next year and hopefully having some opportunities to deploy that into the loan portfolio that could add 15 basis points to 20 basis points to our name alone.

因此，只要在明年拿出 100 億美元，並希望有一些機會將其部署到貸款組合中，僅我們的名義就可以增加 15 個基點到 20 個基點。

We're going to see them grow from here just with the continued repricing of the portfolio from a fixed rate asset perspective that will continue to take, that just takes a little bit more time to play out.

我們將看到它們從這裡開始成長，從固定利率資產的角度來看，投資組合將繼續重新定價，這將繼續進行，只是需要更多的時間來發揮作用。

But if you get a little bit of relief on the front end of a more normalized curve, get front and down, I mean, it's not, it's not unreasonable to think we could be talking about, you know, getting back to what was a 315 to 325 then into a reasonable time horizon?

但是，如果你在更標準化的曲線的前端得到一點緩解，從前到下，我的意思是，這不是，認為我們可以談論，你知道，回到什麼是不合理的315到325那麼進入合理的時間範圍？

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Stock.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克，珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯托克。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to ask about some of the large banks who have been placed under regulatory orders this year.

我想問今年受到監管命令的一些大銀行的情況。

Does that create new business opportunities for you beyond your already organic pipeline?

這是否會為您在現有的有機管道之外創造新的商機？

Hi, I mean, I think any time there's a limit on someone else's ability to grow, it means that the rest of the industry has to have the capacity to be able to absorb the growth in the market.

你好，我的意思是，我認為任何時候別人的成長能力受到限制，就意味著行業的其他公司必須有能力吸收市場的成長。

So I guess in that sense, yes, just tactically, I think more strategically, the more disciplined you are about the way you run your business, the better you do in moments when there's any sort of disruption somewhere else, right.

所以我想從這個意義上說，是的，只是從戰術上講，我認為從戰略上講，你對經營業務的方式越有紀律，當其他地方出現任何形式的干擾時，你就會做得越好，對吧。

So I wouldn't wish significant regulatory problems on anybody.

所以我不希望任何人遇到重大的監管問題。

They're no fun to work through, but they do tend to create opportunities at the margins for other banks that are in a strong position and have the ability to grow in an environment where others may not.

它們的工作並不有趣，但它們確實傾向於為其他處於強勢地位並有能力在其他銀行無法實現的環境中成長的銀行創造邊緣機會。

Great Tim, thank you for that and just a quick follow up on.

很棒的蒂姆，謝謝你的幫助，并快速跟進。

So I said returns over time.

所以我說隨著時間的推移會帶來回報。

Does lower interest rates help you get your returns or does it make it more challenging,

較低的利率是否有助於您獲得回報，或者是否會使其更具挑戰性？

Lower interest rates?

降低利率？

As long as that comes along with a normalization of the yield code that would certainly be very helpful to returns over time.

只要伴隨著收益率代碼的標準化，隨著時間的推移，這肯定會對回報非常有幫助。

A low flat curve, a low flat curve is a challenging environment for the banking system.

低平曲線，低平曲線對銀行體系來說是一個充滿挑戰的環境。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Bryan.

謝謝你，布萊恩。

Appreciate it everybody.

大家欣賞一下。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

Hey, I was just wondering, this is a big picture question.

嘿，我只是想知道，這是一個大問題。

You guys give the sense that you're investing more for growth than others.

你們給人的感覺是，你們為成長所做的投資比其他人更多。

Do you have any metric on how much you make in your organic investments?

您是否有衡量有機投資效益的指標？

And what sort of returns you get on those?

您從中獲得了什麼樣的回報？

I think I'm thinking about the Southeast branches or wealth or commercial payments.

我想我正在考慮東南分支或財富或商業支付。

And it kind of goes back to our earlier question, maybe you shouldn't buy back so much stock if you have so many opportunities for growth or you know, high class problem if you get there.

這有點回到了我們之前的問題，如果你有這麼多成長機會，也許你不應該回購那麼多股票，或者你知道，如果你到達那裡，就會出現高級問題。

Yeah, I mean the we look at all of these things, the easiest comparable across the different investment types is probably just IRR mic, right?

是的，我的意思是，我們看看所有這些事情，不同投資類型中最容易比較的可能只是 IRR 麥克風，對吧？

And time to break even.

是時候達到收支平衡了。

So the IRR of the branches in the Southeast has been running in the 18% to 20% range and the time to break even has been a couple of years, right?

那麼東南地區分行的 IRR 一直在 18% 到 20% 的範圍內運行，達到收支平衡的時間已經有幾年了，對吧？

If you were to look at the small acquisitions we've made to support commercial payments, we were targeting IRRs in the 20s in those cases, in part because you had a more nascent business and less predictable after then, you know, when you built 100 branches and you know what you're going to get out of the next location that you build.

如果你看看我們為支持商業支付而進行的小型收購，我們在這些情況下的目標是20 多歲的IRR，部分原因是你的業務更新生，之後的可預測性更差，你知道，當你建立100 個分支，您就知道您將從您建造的下一個位置中得到什麼。

So I think in general, we feel really good about anything that we can get done in that sort of 15% to 25% range subject to the execution risk that's attached the more uncertain, the more nascent the strategy, the higher the return you would expect to get out of it.

所以我認為總的來說，我們對在 15% 到 25% 範圍內能夠完成的任何事情都感到非常滿意，但要考慮執行風險，不確定性越大，策略越新，回報就越高期望擺脫它。

And the more proven strategies, you know, obviously the lower the execution risk premium that you would need to place on them.

您知道，策略越經過驗證，顯然您需要為其設定的執行風險溢價就越低。

I don't think we are constraining the investment rate.

我不認為我們正在限制投資率。

Like if you just look at the Southeast, JP Morgan has built the most branches down there over the course of the past five years, they're at 180 or something like that.

就像如果你看看東南部，摩根大通在過去五年裡在那裡建立了最多的分支機構，大約有 180 家。

I think fifth third is number two and I believe [Bofa] is number three.

我認為第五第三是第二，我相信[Bofa]是第三。

And then there's a pretty wide GAAP between that and everybody else.

然後，它與其他公司之間存在相當大的公認會計原則。

And I know, I don't have to tell you that we're a little bit smaller than [B of A] and JP Morgan.

我知道，不用我告訴你，我們的規模比 [B of A] 和摩根大通還要小一些。

So we -- I -- we think being appropriately aggressive in terms of the investment rate down there.

所以我們——我——我們認為在投資率方面要適當且激進。

And at least at the moment, I don't know that if we said, hey, we're not going to buy back stock.

至少目前，我不知道我們是否會說，嘿，我們不會回購股票。

We don't have an alternative use for that capital on an organic basis that we would be thinking you know that we would deploy it toward

我們沒有有機地使用該資本的其他用途，我們會認為您知道我們會將其部署到

And Mike, we are we are accelerating the investment, as I mentioned on the proven strategies is part of why we're going from what was 20 to 30 branch builds a year to the 50-plus branch build a year.

麥克，我們正在加速投資，正如我在行之有效的策略中提到的，這也是我們從每年 20 到 30 個分支機構建設到每年 50 多個分支機構建設的部​​分原因。

We have more confidence that gives us a point of view of an area we want to invest in.

我們更有信心，讓我們對想要投資的領域有一個看法。

And then the other limiter for us is always going to be I know the analysts that are worried about positive operating leverage because that's the trade off, we care about as well.

然後，對我們來說，另一個限制因素始終是我知道分析師擔心積極的營運槓桿，因為這是我們也關心的權衡。

And just to push back on that last point, I mean, it's I hear you if you get those sorts of IRRs and you're accelerating your branch build, but it comes at a time when I think some of the Southeast competitors have, you know, woken up, recovered, like you less unlike securities losses going from defense to offense, you have that change for the last few years.

只是為了反駁最後一點，我的意思是，如果你得到這些類型的 IRR 並且你正在加速你的分支機構建設，但這是在我認為一些東南競爭對手已經發生的時候，你知道，醒來，恢復，就像你一樣，不像證券損失從防守到進攻，你在過去幾年裡發生了這種變化。

And you also have the likes of some of those big banks that you mentioned with spending so much more in technology and digital.

您還提到了一些大銀行，它們在技術和數位方面投入了更多資金。

So don't you think it might be tougher in the next few years and it's been in the past few years?

那麼你不認為未來幾年會更艱難嗎？

Well, I don't know, I don't think that the Southeast was uncompetitive the last five years.

嗯，我不知道，我不認為東南部過去五年沒有競爭力。

Right.

正確的。

I think that what you're just you're constantly looking at is are we making the right set of investments given the competitors that we have and our value proposition relative to others?

我認為，您不斷關注的是，考慮到我們擁有的競爭對手以及我們相對於其他競爭對手的價值主張，我們是否做出了正確的投資？

I completely agree.

我完全同意。

The amount of money that is getting deployed into technology investment on the part of the large banks is eye popping.

大型銀行投入科技投資的資金數量令人瞠目結舌。

But if you look at the value proposition, like go pull up the consumer lead consumer checking account offering for any of those large banks and for Fifth Third or some other regional and tell me how that materialized into some substantially better value proposition.

但如果你看看價值主張，例如為任何一家大型銀行、Fifth Third 或其他一些地區提供以消費者為主導的消費者支票帳戶產品，並告訴我這是如何實現一些更好的價值主張的。

I actually think in many cases, what you would see is the opposite is it's been the regionals who led on consumer friendly product innovation.

事實上，我認為在很多情況下，你會看到相反的是，領導消費者友善產品創新的是地區。

It's definitely been through Fifth Third, but it's not just be Fifth Third, in terms of the offerings there so that we are not running the bank to be able to take share in uncompetitive environments, we run the bank to be able to take share in very competitive environments.

肯定是通過了第五第三，但就那裡的產品而言，這不僅僅是第五第三，因此我們運營銀行不是為了能夠在競爭激烈的環境中獲得份額，我們運營銀行是為了能夠在競爭在激烈的環境中獲得份額。

And you know, I expect the level of competition is going to stay high.

你知道，我預計競爭水平將保持在高水準。

Not that it's going to get better or for that matter and get worse.

並不是說情況會變得更好，也不是說會變得更糟。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes our Q&A session and then I'll turn the conference back over to Matt for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束，然後我將把會議轉回給馬特做總結發言。

Thank you and thanks everyone for your interest in Fifth Third, please contact the investor relations department if you have any follow up calls or questions.

感謝大家對Fifth Third的關注，如有任何後續電話或問題，請聯絡投資者關係部門。

Operating room, now disconnect the call.

手術室，現在掛斷電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。