Federated Hermes Inc (FHI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Federated Hermes Q1 2025 analyst call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Federated Hermes 2025 年第一季分析師電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Ray Hanley, President of Federated Investors Management Company. You may begin.

現在我將會議交給主持人、聯邦投資者管理公司總裁雷漢利 (Ray Hanley)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Holly. Hello and welcome to our call. Leading today's call will be Chris Donahue, CEO and President of Federated Hermes; and Tom Donahue, Chief Financial Officer. And joining us for the Q&A are Saker Nusseibeh, who is the CEO of Federated Hermes Limited; and Debbie Cunningham, our Chief Investment Officer for the money markets.

謝謝你，霍莉。您好，歡迎來電。主持今天電話會議的將是 Federated Hermes 執行長兼總裁 Chris Donahue；以及財務長湯姆·多納休 (Tom Donahue)。與我們一起參與問答環節的還有 Federated Hermes Limited 的首席執行官 Saker Nusseibeh；以及我們的貨幣市場首席投資官黛比·坎寧安 (Debbie Cunningham)。

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements, and we want to note that Federated Hermes actual results may be materially different than the results implied by such statements. Please review the risk disclosures in our SEC filings. No assurance can be given as to future results, and Federated Hermes assumes no duty to update any of these forward-looking statements. Chris?

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述，我們想指出，Federated Hermes 的實際結果可能與此類陳述所暗示的結果有重大差異。請查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的風險揭露。無法保證未來的結果，Federated Hermes 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。克里斯？

Thank you, Ray, and good morning all. I will review Federated Hermes business performance. Tom will comment on our financial results. We ended Q1 with record assets under management of $840 billion driven by record money market assets of $637 billion. Looking first at equities.

謝謝你，雷，大家早安。我將回顧 Federated Hermes 的業務表現。湯姆將對我們的財務結果發表評論。我們在第一季結束時管理的資產達到創紀錄的 8,400 億美元，這得益於創紀錄的 6,370 億美元的貨幣市場資產。首先來看股票。

Assets increased by $1.5 billion from year end due mainly to net sales of $1.4 billion. Equity sales in the first quarter were led again by our MDT fundamental quant strategies.

資產較年底增加了 15 億美元，主要原因是淨銷售額達到 14 億美元。第一季的股票銷售再次由我們的 MDT 基本量化策略引領。

Looking at the MDT strategies in funds and SMAs on a combined basis. Net sales were $2.5 billion in Q1, more than double the prior quarter's $1.2 billion. Q1 continued the sales momentum from last year when net sales for these strategies reached $3.4 billion, up substantially from $411 million in 2023.

綜合考察基金和SMA中的MDT策略。第一季淨銷售額為 25 億美元，較上一季的 12 億美元成長一倍多。問題 1延續了去年的銷售勢頭，這些策略的淨銷售額達到 34 億美元，較 2023 年的 4.11 億美元大幅成長。

For the second quarter through April 18, these strategies have had net sales of $345 million. We are also seeing MDT interest from institutional investors as evidenced by net sales of nearly $700 million in Q1 and by MDT wins of $1.7 billion that have yet to fund.

截至 4 月 18 日的第二季度，這些策略的淨銷售額為 3.45 億美元。我們也看到機構投資者對 MDT 的興趣，第一季的淨銷售額接近 7 億美元，而 MDT 贏得的 17 億美元資金尚未到位，就證明了這一點。

Q1 saw a further improvement in flows from Strategic Value Dividend strategies, both domestic and international. These strategies had Q1 combined fund and SMA net sales of $188 million from combined funds and separate accounts compared to negative $221 million of net redemptions in the prior quarter.

第一季度，來自國內和國際的戰略價值紅利策略的資金流進一步改善。這些策略在第一季的合併基金和 SMA 淨銷售額為 1.88 億美元，來自合併基金和獨立帳戶，而上一季的淨贖回額為負 2.21 億美元。

For Q2 through April 18, these strategies had net sales in combined funds and SMAs of $47 million. We had net sales in 18 equity fund strategies during the first quarter, including the aforementioned MDT Mid-Cap Growth, MDT Large-Cap Growth; importantly, the MDT Mid-Cap Collective, also MDT All-Cap Core, MDT Large-Cap Value; and again, MDT Large-Cap Growth ETF.

截至 4 月 18 日的第二季度，這些策略的綜合基金和 SMA 淨銷售額為 4,700 萬美元。我們在第一季淨出售了 18 隻股票基金策略，包括前面提到的 MDT 中型股成長基金、MDT 大型股成長基金；重要的是，MDT Mid-Cap Collective，還有 MDT All-Cap Core、MDT Large-Cap Value；再次是 MDT 大盤成長型 ETF。

Looking at our equity performance at the end of the first quarter and using Morningstar data for trailing three years. 44% of our equity funds were beating peers and 31% were in the top quartile of their category. For the first three weeks of Q2, combined equity funds and SMEs had net sales of $208 million.

查看第一季末的股票表現並使用過去三年的晨星數據。我們的股票基金中有 44% 表現優於同行，31% 處於同類基金的前四分之一。第二季的前三週，股票基金和中小企業的淨銷售額總計 2.08 億美元。

Now turning to fixed income. Assets increased by about $1.4 billion in the first quarter from year end due mainly to higher market valuations, partially offset by net redemptions. We had 19 fixed income funds with net sales in the first quarter, including government Ultrashort Fund and the municipal Ultrashort Fund.

現在轉向固定收益。今年第一季度，資產較年底增加了約 14 億美元，主要原因是市場估值上升，但淨贖回部分抵消了這一增長。第一季我們有 19 檔固定收益基金實現淨銷售，其中包括政府超短期基金和市政超短期基金。

Regarding performance. At the end of the first quarter, using Morningstar data for the trailing three years, 44% of our fixed income funds were beating peers and 18% were in the top quartile of their category.

關於性能。在第一季末，根據晨星過去三年的數據，我們 44% 的固定收益基金表現優於同行，18% 的固定收益基金處於同類基金的前四分之一。

For the first three weeks of Q2, combined fixed income fund and SMAs had net redemptions of $888 million. In the alternative private markets category, assets increased by $562 million in Q1 due mainly to the impact of FX rates and net sales of about $61 million, mostly in MDT Market-Neutral Fund.

在第二季的前三週，固定收益基金和 SMA 的淨贖回額為 8.88 億美元。在另類私募市場類別中，第一季資產增加了 5.62 億美元，主要原因是外匯匯率的影響以及約 6,100 萬美元的淨銷售額，其中大部分是 MDT 市場中性基金。

We are in the market with European Direct Lending III, the third vintage of our European Direct Lending Fund. To date, we've closed on approximately $350 million. The target raise is about $750 million.

我們已進入歐洲直接貸款市場，這是我們的歐洲直接貸款基金的第三個版本。到目前為止，我們已經完成了約 3.5 億美元的交易。目標融資額約 7.5 億美元。

And EDL I raised $300 million and EDL II raised about $640 million. We're also in the market with Global Private Equity Co-invest Fund, which is the sixth vintage of the PEC. We call it the PEC Series, first closed in April for about $114 million with a target raise of about $500 million.

和 EDL我籌集了 3 億美元，EDL II 籌集了約 6.4 億美元。我們也透過全球私募股權共同投資基金進入該市場，這是 PEC 的第六個版本。我們稱之為 PEC 系列，於 4 月首次完成融資，融資金額約 1.14 億美元，目標融資額約 5 億美元。

PEC I through V raised about $400 million to $600 million in each fund. The Federated Hermes GPE Innovation Fund II, the second vintage of our pan-European Growth Private Equity Innovation Fund, is in the market as well.

PEC I 至 V 每隻基金籌集了約 4 億至 6 億美元。我們的泛歐成長私募股權創新基金的第二個版本—聯邦赫爾墨斯 GPE 創新基金 II 也已上市。

And to date, we've closed on approximately $110 million with a target raise of $300 million. Our first vehicle here raised about $240 million. We're also in the market with a European Real Estate Debt Fund, a new pooled European debt fund, and it's marketing here in '25 with an overall target of $300 million.

到目前為止，我們已經籌集了約 1.1 億美元，目標籌集 3 億美元。我們的第一筆投資籌集了約 2.4 億美元。我們也在歐洲房地產債務基金和新型歐洲集合債務基金市場開展業務，該基金將於 25 年開始行銷，總目標金額為 3 億美元。

Now we continue to develop our private markets business for growth. This month, we completed the acquisition of a majority interest in a UK renewable energy company called Rivington Energy (Management) Limited.

現在我們繼續發展我們的私人市場業務以實現成長。本月，我們完成了英國再生能源公司 Rivington Energy (Management) Limited 多數股權的收購。

The acquisition enhances private markets platform by adding project development expertise and specialist energy transition sector experience to our institutional investment and asset management capabilities in the infrastructure asset class. This acquisition offers access to an existing renewables pipeline and a track record of innovation, enabling us to identify emerging subsectors with significant commercial opportunities and deal flow for future fundraising.

此次收購增強了私人市場平台，為我們在基礎設施資產類別的機構投資和資產管理能力增添了專案開發專業知識和專業能源轉型領域經驗。此次收購使我們能夠獲得現有的再生能源管道和創新記錄，從而發現具有重大商業機會和未來融資交易流程的新興子行業。

We believe that access to high-quality, proprietary deal flow grounded on innovation and thought leadership will be critical to future fundraising. This combination creates the capability to manage end-to-end energy transition projects for investors and adds a highly complementary skill set and offering to our private markets business.

我們相信，獲得基於創新和思想領導的高品質專有交易流程對於未來的融資至關重要。這一結合使投資者能夠管理端到端能源轉型項目，並為我們的私人市場業務增加了高度互補的技能和產品。

Across our long-term investment platform, we began Q2 with about $3.9 billion in net institutional mandates yet to fund into both funds and separate accounts. Equities expected net additions totaling $1.8 billion. The wins are led by MDT with global equity participation.

在我們的長期投資平台上，第二季開始時，我們擁有約 39 億美元的淨機構授權尚未存入基金和獨立帳戶。股票預期淨增加總額為 18 億美元。此次勝利由 MDT 領銜，並由全球股權參與。

Approximately $1.7 billion of total net wins are expected to come into private market strategies. The wins are in private equity and direct lending. Fixed income expected net additions totaled about $400 million, and the wins are in sustainable investment-grade credit, active cash, short duration and government bonds.

預計總淨收益中約有 17 億美元將進入私人市場策略。勝利在於私募股權和直接貸款。固定收益預期淨增加總額約 4 億美元，主要來自永續投資等級信貸、活躍現金、短期債券和政府債券。

Now moving to money markets. We reached another record high for money market assets at the end of the quarter, $465 billion, and total money market assets of $637 billion. Total money market assets increased by about $7 billion in the first quarter as money funds added $3.2 billion, and money market separate accounts added $3.6 billion.

現在轉向貨幣市場。本季末，貨幣市場資產再創歷史新高，達 4,650 億美元，貨幣市場總資產達 6,370 億美元。第一季貨幣市場總資產增加了約 70 億美元，其中貨幣基金增加了 32 億美元，貨幣市場獨立帳戶增加了 36 億美元。

We were able to increase our money market managed assets in Q1 against seasonal factors that have often resulted in lower assets. Against the recent backdrop of market volatility, market conditions remain favorable for cash as an asset class.

面對經常導致資產減少的季節性因素，我們能夠在第一季增加貨幣市場管理資產。在近期市場波動的背景下，市場狀況對現金作為一種資產類別仍然有利。

In addition to the appeal of relative safety and periods of volatility, money market strategies present opportunities to earn attractive yields compared to alternatives such as bank deposits and direct investments in T-bills and commercial paper. Our estimate of money market mutual fund market share, including our sub-advised funds, was about 7.10% at the end of Q1, down slightly from about 7.22% at the end of 2024.

除了相對安全性和波動期的吸引力之外，貨幣市場策略還提供了與銀行存款和直接投資國庫券和商業票據等替代方案相比獲得誘人收益的機會。我們估計，包括我們的子顧問基金在內的貨幣市場共同基金市佔率在第一季末約為 7.10%，略低於 2024 年底的約 7.22%。

Looking at our money market fund market share changes from Q4 to Q1 and over the prior four years, we saw an average decrease in that time frame of about 34 basis points. Now as we look at recent asset totals of the last few days, managed assets were approximately $828 billion, including $629 billion in money markets, $78.5 billion in equities, $98 billion in fixed income, $20 billion in our alternative private markets, $3 billion in multi-asset. Money market mutual fund assets were $456 billion. Tom?

縱觀我們貨幣市場基金市場份額從第四季度到第一季以及過去四年的變化，我們發現該時間段內平均下降了約 34 個基點。現在，讓我們來看看最近幾天的資產總額，管理資產約為 8,280 億美元，其中包括貨幣市場 6,290 億美元、股票 785 億美元、固定收益 980 億美元、另類私人市場 200 億美元、多種資產 30 億美元。貨幣市場共同基金資產為 4,560 億美元。湯姆？

Thanks, Chris. Total revenue for Q1 decreased slightly from the prior quarter as higher revenue from money market assets of $9.8 million were offset mainly by lower revenue of $9.2 million from fewer days and lower revenue of $3.2 million from equity assets. Total Q1 carried interest and performance fees were $5.9 million compared to $4.8 million last quarter.

謝謝，克里斯。第一季總收入較上一季略有下降，因為貨幣市場資產收入增加 980 萬美元，但主要被天數減少導致的 920 萬美元收入減少以及股權資產收入減少 320 萬美元所抵消。第一季的附帶權益和績效費用總額為 590 萬美元，而上一季為 480 萬美元。

Approximately $1.3 million of the Q1 fees were offset by nearly the same amount of compensation expense. Q1 operating expenses decreased by $22.5 million from the prior quarter due mainly to $13.7 million of lower FX-related expenses, so the pound strengthened versus the dollar, and a credit up to $12.9 million from a VAT refund.

第一季的費用中約有 130 萬美元被幾乎相同金額的薪資費用所抵銷。第一季營運費用較上一季減少 2,250 萬美元，主要原因是外匯相關費用減少 1,370 萬美元，因此英鎊兌美元走強，增值稅退稅抵免額高達 1,290 萬美元。

Compensation and related expense increased by $6.1 million from the prior quarter due mainly to seasonally higher expenses for stock-based compensation and payroll taxes. Advertising and promotional expense decreased due mainly to the timing of our advertising campaign spend.

薪資和相關費用較上一季增加了 610 萬美元，主要原因是股票薪資和薪資稅費用季節性增加。廣告和促銷費用的減少主要是由於我們的廣告活動支出的時間安排。

The Q1 tax rate of 23.6% was lower than the expected range. We expect the tax to be in the 25% to 28% range for 2025. The Q1 rate was impacted by the UK entity recording pre-tax income as a result of the $12.9 million VAT tax refund with no additional tax as a result of valuation allowances from prior year tax losses offsetting this income and the net income attributable to non-recurring non-controlling interests which are not tax.

第一季稅率為23.6%，低於預期範圍。我們預計 2025 年稅率將在 25% 至 28% 之間。第一季的稅率受到英國實體記錄的稅前收入的影響，該收入是由於 1290 萬美元的增值稅退稅而產生的，由於前一年稅收損失的估值準備金抵消了這筆收入，因此沒有額外的稅款，以及歸屬於非經常性非控制性權益的淨收入，這些收入不徵稅。

At the end of Q1, cash and investments were $542 million Cash and investments, excluding the portion attributed to non-controlling interest was $476 million. In addition to investments for growth, we seek to use acquisitions, dividends and share repurchases as levers to add value for shareholders. So far in 2025, we've used all three.

第一季末，現金和投資為 5.42 億美元，不包括歸屬於非控制權益的部分，現金和投資為 4.76 億美元。除了成長投資外，我們還尋求利用收購、股息和股票回購作為槓桿，為股東增加價值。到 2025 年為止，我們已經使用了這三種方法。

In addition to the Rivington acquisition Chris already mentioned, the Board of Directors yesterday declared a $0.34 per share dividend, an increase of nearly 10% from the prior quarter dividend. During Q1, the company purchased just over 3 million shares or almost 4% of its stock for about $120 million.

除了克里斯已經提到的收購 Rivington 之外，董事會昨天還宣布每股股息 0.34 美元，比上一季的股息增加近 10%。第一季度，該公司以約 1.2 億美元的價格回購了 300 多萬股，佔其股票的近 4%。

Holly, we would like to open the call up for questions now.

霍莉，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator instructions) Ken Worthington, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示） 摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

I wanted to start digging into the money market share. So it looks like the industry money market funds AUM increased about $110 billion in 1Q, suggesting inflows. I think the Federated money market fund AUM was up around $3 billion, suggesting outflows.

我想開始深入研究貨幣市場佔有率。因此看起來，行業貨幣市場基金 AUM 在第一季增加了約 1100 億美元，顯示有資金流入。我認為聯邦貨幣市場基金的資產管理規模增加了約 30 億美元，顯示資金流出。

And we know the money market fund business is very competitive. So maybe can you talk about the competitive environment, the shifts that you're seeing that might be driving this divergence in growth? And it feels like we've seen this since the Fed began to cut, so any comments there.

我們知道貨幣市場基金業務競爭非常激烈。那麼，您能否談談競爭環境以及您所看到的可能導致這種成長分化的變化？感覺自從聯準會開始降息以來我們就看到了這種情況，所以對此有什麼評論嗎？

Ken, what did you mean by $3 billion of outflows when you were saying there were $3 billion of inflows?

肯，你說有 30 億美元的流入，那麼 30 億美元的流出是什麼意思呢？

I'm sorry. What I tried to say was you had $3 billion of increased money market fund AUM, which actually suggests outflows for Federated in money fund assets for the quarter. So the industry had inflows. It looks like you had outflows. That's what I was getting at.

對不起。我想說的是，貨幣市場基金的資產管理規模增加了 30 億美元，這實際上表明本季度聯邦貨幣基金資產出現流出。因此該產業有資金流入。看起來您有資金流出。這就是我要說的。

I'm not sure I follow the math on that, Ken. This is Debbie. The inflows were definitely positive. They were not as positive as some others in the industry. Maybe just to break the quarter down a little bit.

我不確定我是否理解其中的數學原理，肯。這是黛比。資金流入肯定是正面的。他們並不像業內其他一些人那樣積極。也許只是為了稍微細分一下這個季度。

First of all, I'd start by saying, usually, the first quarter is the worst quarter of the year on a cyclical basis for all the industry from a liquidity business standpoint. And this has to do with a lot of strength that comes from flows from the fourth quarter in a window-dressing manner, to some degree, reversing in the first weeks and early part of January of every year.

首先，我想說，從流動性業務的角度來看，第一季通常是整個產業一年中週期性表現最差的季度。這與第四季以表面功夫出現的大量資金流入有很大關係，這種流入在一定程度上在每年頭幾周和一月初出現逆轉。

That didn't happen this year. So that's a positive from an industry standpoint. What I'd also note is that from a percentage standpoint within the first quarter through the middle of March, our assets were up substantially more than what they ended up being positive for the end of the first quarter.

今年沒有發生這種情況。從行業角度來看，這是一件正面的事。我還要注意的是，從第一季到 3 月中旬的百分比來看，我們的資產成長幅度遠遠超過了第一季末的正值。

That had a lot to do with -- starting with March 15, a substantial outflow due to corporate taxes that I think was probably a little bit worse for us just simply because of our larger institutional nature. And then secondly, towards the end of the quarter, it was a rougher quarter end.

這有很大關係——從 3 月 15 日開始，由於公司稅而出現大量資金流出，我認為這對我們來說可能更糟糕，因為我們的機構性質更大。其次，接近季度末，這是一個較為艱難的季度末。

And I think a lot of that had to do with what was happening from a broader macro perspective, with the tariff issues that had not yet been fully understood or announced, but concerns about them and the volatility that was happening in many of the other markets.

我認為這在很大程度上與從更廣泛的宏觀角度來看正在發生的事情有關，包括尚未完全理解或宣布的關稅問題，以及對這些問題的擔憂以及許多其他市場正在發生的波動。

Again, looking at our institutional nature, we had substantial outflows due to margin calls, I think, on other customer -- institutional customers, other assets that came out of their liquidity portions. It even carried that further now into the month of April.

再次，從我們的機構性質來看，我認為，由於其他客戶（機構客戶）的追加保證金通知，我們有大量的資金流出，這些資產來自他們的流動性部分。這種趨勢甚至持續到了四月。

Personal taxes and additional margin calls from institutional customers continue to be a negative play despite the fact that it's been a general positive trend to today within the month of April. But definitely, a different first quarter than would be the norm in the money markets.

儘管截至目前，四月份總體呈現正面趨勢，但個人所得稅和機構客戶的額外保證金追加仍是一個負面影響。但毫無疑問，第一季的貨幣市場表現與往常有所不同。

Ken, this is Tom. Just to give you the assets in the money markets. So December year end, we ended up at about [630] and March 31, '25, we ended up at [637]. And then more importantly, for our revenue is the average assets. So the money market average assets in the end during Q4 were [601;] and for Q1, were [639.8]. So just to --

肯，這是湯姆。只是為了給你貨幣市場上的資產。因此，12 月底，我們的業績約為 [630]，而 25 年 3 月 31 日，我們的業績約為[637]。更重要的是，我們的收入是平均資產。因此，第四季貨幣市場平均資產最終為 [601;]，而第一季為[639.8]。所以只是為了--

Yes. Got it. Appreciate that. And then just on the April data you gave in fixed income suggested some elevated fixed income outflows. What's driving that? It seems to be a change from what we saw in recent quarters.

是的。知道了。非常感謝。然後，您提供的 4 月固定收益數據顯示固定收益資金流出增加。是什麼原因導致的呢？這似乎與我們最近幾季看到的情況有所不同。

The first there, we're basically made up of Total Return Bond Fund and High Yield with about three-fourths of the 888 being in Total Return and another -- the rest of it in High Yield. The -- one of the things that the -- we're happy with is that the Total Return Fund's performance is improving.

首先，我們基本上由總報酬債券基金和高收益基金組成，其中 888 檔債券中約有四分之三屬於總報酬基金，其餘則屬於高收益基金。令我們高興的事情之一是總回報基金的表現正在改善。

It hasn't moved the three-year number yet, but it has moved the recent numbers. And so we are optimistic about that. The basic call there, which I think we mentioned on the last call, was a a defensive one that relative to others was not the greatest call for last year, but it's starting to look a lot better as we work through this part of the year. So that's part of the ebb and flow going on there.

它還沒有改變三年的數字，但它改變了最近的數字。因此我們對此持樂觀態度。我認為我們在上次通話中提到過，那裡的基本通話是一種防禦性通話，相對於其他人而言，這不是去年最好的通話，但隨著我們度過今年的這段時間，情況開始好多了。這就是那裡發生的潮起潮落的一部分。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特（Patrick Davitt），自主研究。

So I appreciate the tax payments always make late March, early April seasonally weak. So maybe could you frame what you're seeing in money fund flows since tax date?

因此，我理解納稅總是會使三月下旬和四月初成為季節性疲軟時期。那麼，您能否描述一下自納稅日期以來貨幣基金流動的情況？

And then higher level, perhaps for Debbie, an update on where you think we are in that post-Fed rate cut institutional rotation into money funds that you've been talking about for some time? And then beyond that, have you seen any sign that the tariff noise is driving non-US clients out of US money funds?

然後從更高層面來說，也許對於黛比來說，您認為我們在美聯儲降息後機構輪換進入貨幣基金的階段處於什麼位置，您已經談論了一段時間了？除此之外，您是否看到任何跡象表明關稅噪音正在迫使非美國客戶退出美國貨幣基金？

So I'll take the last one and let Debbie take the first two, if we could remember them all. But on the last one, we haven't seen any of that -- of tariff noise causing international clients to do much of anything. So that -- we'll start with that one. And then for Debbie's long-term views on things?

因此，如果我們能全部記住的話，我將選擇最後一個，並讓黛比選擇前兩個。但在最後一個問題上，我們還沒有看到任何關稅噪音導致國際客戶採取任何行動。那麼——我們就從這個開始。那麼黛比對事物的長期看法是什麼呢？

Sure. Maybe just to give a little bit of an update since the personal tax date on April 15. For the next week, basically, we have -- we saw pretty substantial flows back in. This is both from a retail as well as an institutional standpoint, a little bit less so this week.

當然。也許只是提供自 4 月 15 日個人納稅日期以來的最新消息。基本上，在接下來的一周，我們看到了相當大量的資金回流。從零售和機構的角度來看都是如此，但本週的情況稍有不同。

If I look at what we're expecting going through the 2025 time frame, from a rate cut standpoint, two to three, three more likely with a fallback being two, that's from where we started the year, one more likely with a fallback being two.

如果我從降息的角度來看我們對 2025 年時間框架的預期，那麼從降息的角度來看，降息兩次到三次，三次的可能性更大，而回落兩次，這是我們從年初開始計算的，一次的可能性更大，而回落兩次。

But in any case, the expectations are for higher for longer. If you look back to when this cutting season started in September of 2024, were expected to be close to 2% already by now given that we started with that 50 basis point rate cut back in September. So we're not anywhere near to there.

但無論如何，人們的期望值更高，持續時間更長。如果回顧 2024 年 9 月降息季開始時的情況，考慮到我們從 9 月開始降息 50 個基點，預計現在利率已經接近 2%。所以我們還遠遠沒有到達那裡。

And I think that both retail and institutional continue to enjoy the four-plus handles that they have on their money market investments at this point with the expectation that even if they go down into the mid-3s, that's still a substantial win over where they had been for a very long period of time when rates were back at zero. Inflation definitely is a wildcard.

我認為，散戶和機構投資者目前都繼續享受他們在貨幣市場投資中擁有的四個以上的收益，預計即使他們跌至 3% 中間，這仍然比利率回到零水平很長一段時間以來的水平有了實質性的提高。通貨膨脹絕對是未知因素。

We continue to see the hard data of inflation, the hard data of employment leaning toward a Fed that would be maintaining higher rates for a longer period of time and not lowering them at the pace that some of the industry is assessing. But when you look at some of the softer data, the confidence data, the survey data, ultimately, you've got a deterioration in that data that would expect -- that would lead you to maybe expect a little bit faster rate-cutting policy by the Fed.

我們繼續看到通膨的硬數據、就業的硬數據傾向於聯準會在較長時間內維持較高的利率，而不是以一些業內人士評估的速度降低利率。但當你查看一些較為疲軟的數據、信心數據和調查數據時，你會發現這些數據最終會惡化，這可能會讓你預期聯準會會加快降息政策。

And that still remains to be seen. We're going with the hard data for now. We're looking at fewer rate cuts than what necessarily the beginning of the year and the rate-cutting cycle would have initially expected. And ultimately, that still brings continued positive flows from retail and institutional into the product. So it's happening. We continue to that -- to expect to keep that pace, if not grow it.

這還有待觀察。現在我們先來看硬數據。我們預期降息次數將少於年初和降息週期最初預期的次數。最終，這仍然會為產品帶來來自零售和機構的持續積極流入。所以它正在發生。我們將繼續這樣做——即使不能加快速度，也希望保持這一速度。

Patrick, this is Tom. Just the specific since the tax money stop leaving, we're up about $5 billion, and as Debbie said, both on the money fund side and on the institutional side.

派崔克，這是湯姆。具體來說，自從稅收停止流出以來，我們的資金增加了約 50 億美元，正如黛比所說，無論是在貨幣基金還是在機構方面。

As a quick follow-up, there's obviously been a lot of FX noise in your numbers the last few quarters. I guess, what is the steady-state number for that other line item without all of the FX noise now? And do you have an idea of what the impact is looking like so far in 2Q given all the FX volatility?

作為一個快速的後續問題，過去幾季的數據中顯然存在著許多外匯噪音。我猜，現在沒有了所有外匯噪音，其他項目的穩定狀態數字是多少？考慮到外匯波動，您是否知道到目前為止第二季的影響會是什麼樣的？

Okay. So we have over GBP100 million that we are hedging because of our UK office that earns revenue in dollars and has expenses in pounds. So it's a hedging thing. And yes, noise in Q4, the dollar versus the pound, the dollar was up.

好的。因此，我們需要對沖超過 1 億英鎊的金額，因為我們的英國辦事處以美元賺取收入，而以英鎊支付支出。所以這是一種對沖行為。是的，第四季美元兌英鎊的匯率確實上漲了。

And then in Q1, the pound was up. And so far, this quarter, the pound is up. We'll see what happens. In terms of what's the normal steady-state number in that other line, it's around $4 million.

然後在第一季度，英鎊上漲。本季度到目前為止，英鎊上漲。我們將拭目以待。就另一條線路的正常穩定數字而言，約為 400 萬美元。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen。

So based on your intra-quarter update, I think you bought back about 600,000 shares to early March, and then you did 3 million-plus for the entire quarter, which would suggest a pretty substantial ramp even before the stock took an incremental hit with the whole post-Liberation Day market decline.

因此，根據您的季度內更新，我認為您在 3 月初回購了大約 60 萬股，然後在整個季度回購了 300 多萬股，這表明，即使在解放日後整個市場下跌導致股價受到逐步打擊之前，股價也出現了相當大的增長。

So I guess the broader question is, what are the allocations for capital from here? And then just in terms of acquisitions, I appreciate you building out the alt platform. But are you looking at anything that might be a little more of size that could be a little bit more of a substantial shift in the profile of the ability to grow in the alts platform?

所以我想更廣泛的問題是，從現在開始資本的配置是什麼？就收購而言，我很欣賞你們建立了 alt 平台。但是，您是否考慮過任何規模更大、能夠對替代平台的成長能力產生更大實質轉變的事情？

Yes. Bill, it's Tom. The -- we've bought 3 million shares -- over 3 million shares. And we just looked at what was going on and looked at our cash position. And we do have a number of things that we're looking at.

是的。比爾，我是湯姆。我們已經買了 300 萬股，超過 300 萬股。我們只是看看發生了什麼，並看看我們的現金狀況。我們確實正在關註一些事情。

There's nothing to announce or talk about. And some of them are maybe a similar size to the Rivington thing, and some of them are a little bit bigger. But of course, we'll have to see what happens there.

沒有什麼可宣布或談論的。其中一些可能與 Rivington 的尺寸相似，而有些則稍大。但當然，我們必須看看那裡會發生什麼。

In terms of the future for buying shares, we increased the dividend and we will remain active in the share price. I know last quarter, we talked about why didn't we buy more in Q4 when the price was in the 40s.

就未來購買股票而言，我們增加了股息，並將繼續保持對股價的動力。我知道上個季度，我們討論過為什麼在第四季度價格在 40 多美元時我們沒有購買更多。

And then the price went down, and we decided to buy more. We still think it's undervalued. And we will see basically each day what we're willing to buy. So that's giving no indication of what we're going to buy, but we will continue.

然後價格下降了，我們決定買更多。我們仍然認為它被低估了。我們基本上每天都會看到我們願意購買什麼。所以這並沒有表明我們將要購買什麼，但我們會繼續。

We have about 2.7 million shares left and approved from the Board. So I would expect this year, for sure, that we would be renewing that with a new program.

我們還剩下約270萬股，並已獲得董事會的批准。因此我確信，今年我們將推出一項新計劃來恢復這一目標。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, as you're going around your conversations, and maybe it's a little too soon just given the intensity of the volatility coming off the quarter into the new quarter, but what are you hearing on the institutional side in terms of allocations?

好的。然後作為後續問題，正如您在談話中所說，考慮到上一季度進入新季度的波動強度，現在可能有點太早了，但是您在機構方面聽到了什麼關於分配的消息？

Where might the incremental interest be? Where are decision-making at this point in time? Any delay? Or what are the conversations like? And where are you seeing the greatest opportunity for Federated?

增量利息可能在哪裡？此時此刻，決策在哪裡進行？有延遲嗎？或是對話是什麼樣的？您認為 Federated 最大的機會在哪裡？

Well, on the institutional side, we are really happy about the $3.9 billion in mandates yet to fund. And we -- one of the most encouraging things is the interest in MDT. And part of the reason for that is their risk controls and the diversification that, that particular strategy offers to say nothing about the performance over 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year period.

嗯，從機構方面來說，我們對尚未資助的 39 億美元授權感到非常高興。我們——最令人鼓舞的事情之一就是對 MDT 的興趣。部分原因在於他們的風險控制和多樣化，該特定策略並未提及 1 年、3 年、5 年和 10 年期間的表現。

And so we are seeing a good bit of interest on that from the RFP perspective as well. The private equity and direct lending numbers are also -- I mentioned them and I don't have to go over them again, but that's another $1.7 billion that we're very happy with. Then active cash and short duration remains a constant part of enthusiastic activity.

因此，從 RFP 的角度來看，我們也看到了人們對此的極大興趣。私募股權和直接貸款的數字也是——我提到過這些，我不需要再重複一遍，但這又是 17 億美元，我們對此感到非常滿意。那麼活躍的現金和短期持續時間仍然是熱情活動的恆定部分。

We have two accounts that we'll be funding, actually, especially at the end of June. It will now happen in the beginning of July, after the 4th of July holiday. That is a substantial win from another state perspective.

實際上，我們有兩個帳戶需要注資，特別是在六月底。現在它將在 7 月初，即 7 月 4 日假期之後發生。從另一個州的角度來看，這是一場重大勝利。

We are at a point in time, however, when most of the state accounts that we have are in basically the period where their assets start to decline on a cyclical basis. But if you look at the growth that they've experienced on a year-over-year basis, it's still pretty substantial.

然而，我們正處於這樣一個時間點：我們擁有的大多數國家帳戶基本上處於資產開始週期性下降的時期。但如果你看他們同比所經歷的成長，你會發現它的成長仍然相當可觀。

So even though we would expect those assets to go down still on a year-over-year basis, they're substantially higher than before.

因此，儘管我們預計這些資產的同比數量仍會下降，但它們的數量仍比以前高得多。

And based on trips that three of us have taken out to Asia over the last three months, yes, MDT, yes, cash, yes, trade finance, yes, Asia ex Japan mandate, and yes, Guyer's Equity Fund. So those are the ones that are gathering the most attention.

根據我們三人過去三個月去亞洲的旅行情況，是的，MDT，是的，現金，是的，貿易融資，是的，日本以外的亞洲授權，是的，蓋爾股票基金。因此，這些是最受關注的。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞集團。

Wanted to follow up on the strong equity flows in MDT in particular. Can you talk about the fee rate of that subset versus the active -- the rest of the overall equity franchise? And then maybe the performance of some of the products here of late given the strength in flows, how they have weathered here this most recent bout of volatility?

想要特別關注 MDT 的強勁股權流動。您能談談該子集的費用率與活躍的其餘整體股權特許經營權的費用率嗎？那麼，考慮到資金流動的強勁，最近這裡的一些產品的表現如何？它們是如何經得起最近一輪的波動的？

Well, the performance is weathered very well. And I'll let Ray tell you about the fees.

嗯，性能經受住了很好的考驗。我會讓雷告訴你費用狀況。

Yes. Dan, the fee rates we talk about on a blended basis, if you took that down to the product level, the MDT equity strategies would be just slightly below our average fee rate but not materially below.

是的。丹，我們討論的費率是混合費率，如果將其降低到產品層面，MDT 股票策略的費率會略低於我們的平均費率，但不會大幅低於。

And as for the performance comment, as Chris said, if you look at their strategies now post through the first couple of weeks of April, the three-year records remain in the top, typically in the top decile, top 2% for the large-cap growth strategy, the top 2% for the large-cap value strategy being examples of that. So they came through the April volatility with their long-term records intact and with good performance even during the period of volatility.

至於業績評論，正如克里斯所說，如果你看一下他們截至 4 月前幾週的策略，三年記錄仍然處於領先地位，通常處於前十分位，大盤增長策略排名前 2%，大盤價值策略排名前 2% 就是例子。因此，他們安然度過了四月份的波動期，其長期記錄完好無損，即使在波動期間也表現良好。

Got it. So just to confirm, these products are below the overall fee rate of the firm is what you said?

知道了。所以只是為了確認一下，這些產品低於公司的整體費率，這是您所說的嗎？

No, the equity fee rate.

不，是股權費率。

Okay, of the equity rate. And then what is the size of MDT as a percentage of the, whatever, $80 billion-plus of equity products?

好的，關於股權利率。那麼 MDT 的規模佔 800 多億美元股票產品的百分比是多少？

It's about $15 billion.

大約是150億美元。

And then just in terms of expenses, if I could just follow up, understanding the onetime dynamic with the VAT charge and some of the FX stuff, but is the rest of the line item, are these reasonable jumping-off points for the remainder of the -- as we think about 2Q and beyond?

然後就費用而言，如果我可以跟進，了解增值稅費用和一些外匯費用的一次性動態，但其餘項目是否是剩餘部分的合理起點 - 當我們考慮第二季度及以後時？

Sure, Dan. Comp is a little higher because of the seasonal things I mentioned, the stock-based comp and the payroll and benefits in Q1. So we got to take a little bit off of there. Distribution, what are the assets going to be that flows with the assets, we hope that goes up. Systems and communications, we expect that to go up.

當然，丹。由於我提到的季節性因素、股票薪資以及第一季的薪資和福利，薪資略高。所以我們必須從那裡稍微休息一下。分配，隨著資產流動的資產是什麼，我們希望它會上升。我們預計系統和通訊將會上升。

Professional service fees and occupancy and intangibles, I don't see much changes. Advertising, that flows with when we're doing our campaigns, and we're starting campaigns. So that should go up a little bit. And travel, that ought to go a little bit up as our sales force gets out there more. When I say a little bit up in those categories, I'm talking like only $1 million or something like that for the next quarter.

專業服務費和入住率以及無形資產，我沒有看到太大的變化。廣告，隨著我們開展活動和開始活動而進行。所以這個數字應該會再上升一點。隨著我們的銷售人員外出活動越來越多，旅行費用也會增加。當我說這些類別略有上升時，我指的是下個季度只有 100 萬美元或類似的數字。

John Dunn, Evercore ISI.

約翰‧鄧恩 (John Dunn)，Evercore ISI。

Maybe just to extend the fee rate conversation a little bit, particularly the pipeline. You mentioned the MDT rate. But overall, it would seem that mix of the whole pipeline would be accretive. Could you maybe talk about where the blended average of the whole pipeline might be and where it compares to historical levels?

也許只是稍微延長費率討論，特別是管道。您提到了 MDT 率。但總體而言，整個管道的組合似乎會增值。您能否談談整個管道的混合平均值可能在哪裡以及與歷史水平相比如何？

Well, yes, it would be accretive given the skew toward private markets and equity broadly and MDT in particular, Typically, if you look at our pipeline in the past, it would have been weighted more toward some of the institutional fixed income strategies that have lower fee rates, including things like active cash and short duration. So yes, the pipeline will be accretive to the overall blended fee rate of the company.

嗯，是的，考慮到對私人市場和股票的廣泛傾斜，特別是 MDT，它會產生增值作用。通常，如果你看看我們過去的管道，它會更偏向一些具有較低費率的機構固定收益策略，包括主動現金和短期等。所以是的，該管道將增加公司的整體混合費率。

Got it. And then the MDT ETF came up earlier in your prepared remarks. Could you just remind us like the outlook, how much AUM you have in active ETFs and the plan for maybe building out that roster?

知道了。然後，您之前在準備好的發言中提到了 MDT ETF。您能否提醒我們前景，您在主動型 ETF 中擁有多少 AUM，以及可能建立該名冊的計劃？

We plan to add a handful of ETFs each year. And there's always a rigorous enthusiastic discussion about which candidates will be first and how that will turn out. The ETFs are over $800 million right now as a group.

我們計劃每年增加少量 ETF。關於哪位候選人將獲得第一名以及結果如何，總是會有激烈的討論。目前，這些 ETF 的總市值已超過 8 億美元。

And we also should add in that discussion a little bit on collectives, which is a completely different business. And I know not to grab a end of your question, but it's another way of our being indifferent as to the buckets or the packaging by getting the investment management through in different markets.

我們也應該在討論中增加一些關於集體的內容，這是一個完全不同的業務。我知道這不是要回答你的問題，但這是我們透過在不同的市場中進行投資管理而對桶子或包裝漠不關心的另一種方式。

So that's our strategy on active ETFs. And we still feel we're in the early innings on the active ETFs and are ready to proceed. And you asked a specific question about how much is in the MDT ETF? Is that 25?

這就是我們的主動式 ETF 策略。我們仍然覺得我們在主動型 ETF 方面處於早期階段，並已準備好繼續前進。您問了一個具體問題，關於 MDT ETF 有多少？那是 25 嗎？

Yes. There are four active MDT ETFs, and they collectively have about $250 million. They're relatively new. They were launched in July of 2024.

是的。有四隻活躍的 MDT ETF，總資產約 2.5 億美元。它們相對較新。它們於 2024 年 7 月發射。

Your next question is a follow-up question from Patrick Davitt.

您的下一個問題是 Patrick Davitt 的後續問題。

So I think you said MDT had $15 billion of AUM. So that's a pretty incredible organic growth rate. Are there any capacity issues with them taking in that much money at one time?

所以我認為您說的是 MDT 擁有 150 億美元的 AUM。這是一個相當驚人的有機成長率。他們一次吸收這麼多錢是否有容量問題？

No. And we're not looking like on any of those mandates that we're thinking about capacity issues. So we're quite enthusiastic about keeping the growth going.

不。我們似乎並沒有在任何這些任務中考慮容量問題。因此，我們對於保持成長非常熱衷。

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session, and I will now turn the call over to Ray Hanley for closing remarks.

問答環節已經結束，現在我將把電話交給雷漢利 (Ray Hanley) 作結束語。

Thank you for joining us today for our call, and that concludes the call. Thank you.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，本次電話會議到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this point. Thank you for your participation

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束，各位可以斷開連線了。感謝您的參與