Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, my name is Harry and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ferguson results quarter ended October 31, 2025, conference call.

女士們、先生們，早安，我叫哈里，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表 Ferguson 公司，歡迎各位參加截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日的季度業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brian Lantz, Ferguson's VP of Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin your conference call.

謝謝。現在我將把電話交給弗格森公司投資者關係和傳播副總裁布萊恩·蘭茨先生。您可以開始電話會議了。

Good morning, everyone and welcome to Ferguson's quarterly earnings conference call and webcast. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the earnings announcement we issued this morning.

各位早安，歡迎參加弗格森季度收益電話會議和網路直播。希望您已經有機會查看我們今天早上發布的盈利公告。

The announcement is available in the Investors section of our corporate website and on our SEC filings web page. A recording of this call will be made available later today. I want to remind everyone that some of our statements today may be forward-looking and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, including the various risks and uncertainties discussed in our Form 10-K available on the SEC's website.

該公告可在我們公司網站的投資者關係欄位和美國證券交易委員會備案網頁上查閱。本次通話的錄音將於今日稍後公佈。我想提醒大家，我們今天發表的一些聲明可能具有前瞻性，並受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預測結果有重大差異，包括我們在美國證券交易委員會網站上提供的 10-K 表格中討論的各種風險和不確定性。

Also, any forward-looking statements represent the company's expectations only as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update these statements. In addition, on today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Therefore, all references to operating profit; operating margin; diluted earnings per share; effective tax rate, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reflect certain non-GAAP. Adjustments. Please refer to our earnings presentation and announcement on our website for additional information regarding those non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

此外，任何前瞻性陳述僅代表本公司截至今日的預期，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的任何義務。此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們還將討論一些非GAAP財務指標。因此，所有提及營業利潤、營業利潤率、稀釋每股收益、實際稅率以及息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的指標均反映了某些非公認會計準則。調整。有關這些非GAAP指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表，請參閱我們網站上的收益報告和公告。

With me on the call today are Kevin Murphy, our CEO, and Bill Brundage, our CFO.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的有我們的執行長凱文墨菲和我們的財務長比爾布倫戴奇。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

現在我將把通話轉給凱文。

Thank you, Brian. Welcome, everyone, to Ferguson's quarterly results conference call. On today's call, we'll cover highlights of our quarterly performance. I'll also provide a more detailed view of our performance by end market and customer group. I'll turn the call over to Bill to review financials and our updated guidance before I wrap up with a few final comments. We have time to take your questions at the end.

謝謝你，布萊恩。歡迎各位參加費格森季度業績電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我們將重點介紹我們本季的業績。我也會按終端市場和客戶群提供更詳細的業績分析。我把電話交給比爾，讓他回顧一下財務狀況和我們更新後的業績指引，最後我再補充幾點看法。最後我們留出時間回答大家的問題。

During the quarter, once again, our expert associates delivered strong results, continuing to execute our growth strategy in a challenging market environment. Sales of $8.2 billion, increased 5% over the prior year driven by organic growth of 4% and acquisition growth of 1%. Gross margin of 30.7%, increased 60 basis points over the prior year. We remained disciplined on costs and generated $808 million of operating profit, which grew 14% over last year. Diluted earnings per share increased nearly 16% over the prior year to $2.84.

本季度，我們的專家團隊再次取得了優異的成績，在充滿挑戰的市場環境中繼續執行我們的成長策略。銷售額達 82 億美元，比上年成長 5%，其中有機成長 4%，收購成長 1%。毛利率為30.7%，較上年增加60個基點。我們嚴格控製成本，實現了 8.08 億美元的營業利潤，比去年增長了 14%。稀釋後每股收益較上年增長近 16%，達到 2.84 美元。

We continue to execute our capital priorities, (technical difficulty) [deploying] $511 million this quarter. We've declared a 7% increase to our quarterly dividend at $0.89 per share. And we acquired Moore Supply Company, an HVAC equipment and supplies business in the Chicago metro area. We also returned $372 million to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends. Our balance sheet remains strong, with net debt to EBITDA 1.1 times.

我們繼續執行我們的資本優先事項，（技術困難）本季[部署] 5.11 億美元。我們宣布將季度股息提高 7%，至每股 0.89 美元。我們收購了位於芝加哥都會區的暖通空調設備和用品公司 Moore Supply Company。我們也透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 3.72 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。

While we continue to operate in a challenging environment, we remain confident in our markets over the medium term, and we'll stay focused on leveraging multi-year tailwinds in both residential and non-residential and markets as we support the complex project needs of the water and air specialized professional.

儘管我們仍在充滿挑戰的環境中運營，但我們對中期市場仍充滿信心，我們將繼續專注於利用住宅和非住宅市場多年的順風，以滿足水和空氣專業技術人員的複雜項目需求。

Turning to our performance by end markets in the United States. Net sales grew by 5.3%. Residential land markets representing approximately half of US revenue remain challenged. New residential housing starts and permit activity have been weak. Repair, maintenance, and improvement work has also remained soft. We continue to outperform the markets with residential revenue down 1% in the quarter.

接下來我們來看看我們在美國各終端市場的表現。淨銷售額成長5.3%。占美國收入約一半的住宅用地市場仍面臨挑戰。新住宅開工量和許可證發放活動一直疲軟。維修、保養和改進工作也依然比較輕鬆。本季住宅收入下降 1%，我們繼續跑贏大盤。

Non-residential land markets performed better than residential. Our scale, expertise, multi-customer group approach, and value-added services drove continued share gains with non-residential revenue up 12% during the quarter. Strengthen large capital project activity has continued, and we've seen solid shipments with growth in open order volumes and bidding activity. Our intentional balanced approach to end markets continues to position us well.

非住宅用地市場表現優於住宅用地市場。我們的規模、專業知識、多客戶群方法和增值服務推動了市場份額的持續成長，本季非住宅收入成長了 12%。大型資本項目活動持續加強，出貨量穩定成長，未完成訂單量和投標活動也隨之增加。我們有意採取的平衡策略，使我們始終處於有利地位。

Moving next to revenue performance across our customer groups in the United States. We grew waterworks revenues by 14% as our highly diversified customer group saw strength in large capital projects, public works, general municipal, and meters and metering technology, offsetting weakness in residential.

接下來，我們將分析我們在美國各客戶群的收入表現。由於我們高度多元化的客戶群在大型資本項目、公共工程、一般市政以及水錶和計量技術領域表現出色，抵消了住宅業務的疲軟，我們的水務收入增長了 14%。

Ferguson home, which brings together our best-in-class showroom and digital experience, grew 1% in a challenging new construction and remodel market. Our ability to present a unified experience and cater to higher end projects drove outperformance against the broader market.

Ferguson Home 融合了我們一流的展廳和數位化體驗，在充滿挑戰的新建和改造市場中實現了 1% 的成長。我們能夠提供統一的體驗並滿足高端專案的需求，從而在大盤中脫穎而出。

Residential trade plumbing declined by 4% due to headwinds in both new and RMI construction. HVAC declined by 6% against a strong 9% comparable and weaker markets impacted by the industry's transition to new efficiency standards and weak new residential construction activity as well as a pressured consumer. We remain pleased with our execution, our counter build out for the dual trade, and M&A opportunities.

由於新建和RMI建築的不利因素，住宅管道貿易下降了4%。受產業向新能源效率標準過渡、新建住宅活動疲軟以及消費者壓力等因素影響，暖通空調產業較去年同期下降 6%，而同期可比市場整體成長強勁，達到 9%。我們對我們的執行情況、雙重貿易的應對措施以及併購機會仍然感到滿意。

Commercial mechanical customer group grew 21% on top of a 1% prior-year comparable, driven by large capital projects such as data centers, partially offset by weaker activity in traditional non-residential projects. Our fire and fabrication, facility supply, and industrial customer groups all saw growth during the quarter as we continue to take share and leverage our unique multi-customer group approach. Our customer groups are better together, sharing expertise to provide end-to-end solutions that help simplify complex projects and maximize contractor productivity.

商業機械客戶群在去年同期 1% 的成長基礎上成長了 21%，這主要得益於資料中心等大型資本專案的推動，但部分被傳統非住宅專案活動的疲軟所抵消。本季度，我們的消防和製造、設施供應和工業客戶群均實現了成長，因為我們繼續擴大市場份額並利用我們獨特的多客戶群方法。我們的客戶群團結起來會變得更強大，透過共享專業知識，提供端到端的解決方案，幫助簡化複雜的專案並最大限度地提高承包商的生產力。

Now let me pass the call over to Bill for the financial results in more detail.

現在我把電話交給比爾，讓他更詳細地介紹財務表現。

Thank you, Kevin and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。

Net sales of $8.2 billion were 5.1% ahead of last year, driven by organic revenue growth of 4.2% and acquisition growth of 1%, partially offset by 0.1% from the adverse impact of foreign exchange rates and from a divestment in Canada.

淨銷售額為 82 億美元，比去年增長 5.1%，主要得益於有機收入增長 4.2% 和收購增長 1%，但部分被匯率不利影響和加拿大資產剝離造成的 0.1% 的損失所抵消。

Price inflation was approximately 3%, modest sequential improvement in finished goods pricing offset by commodity-related categories being down low single-digits. Gross margin of 30.7% increased 60 basis points over last year, driven by our associates' disciplined execution.

物價通膨率約為 3%，成品價格較上季小幅上漲，但大宗商品相關類別價格出現個位數下滑，抵銷了這一漲幅。毛利率為 30.7%，比去年增加了 60 個基點，這得益於我們員工嚴謹的執行力。

Operating costs grew slower than revenue, delivering 20 basis points of operating leverage. An operating profit of $808 million, was up 14.4%, delivering a 9.9% operating margin of 80 basis points of expansion over the prior year. Diluted earnings per share of $2.84 is 15.9% above last year, driven by operating profit growth and the impact of share repurchases. And our balance sheet remains strong at 1.1 times net debt to EBITDA.

營運成本成長速度低於收入成長速度，實現了 20 個基點的營運槓桿。營業利益為 8.08 億美元，成長 14.4%，營業利益率為 9.9%，較上年成長 80 個基點。稀釋後每股收益為 2.84 美元，比去年增長 15.9%，主要得益於營業利潤成長和股票回購的影響。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。

Moving to our segment results, net sales in the US grew 5.3% with organic growth of 4.4% and a further 0.9% contribution from acquisitions. Operating profit of $806 million increased $109 million over the prior year, delivering an operating margin of 10.4%. In Canada, net sales were 2.2% ahead of last year, with organic growth of 0.7% and a 4.6% contribution from acquisitions partially offset by a 1.6% adverse impact from foreign exchange rates as well as 1.5% from a non-core business divestment. Markets have remained subdued in Canada, particularly in residential. Operating profit of $16 million was $7 million below last year.

再來看我們的分部業績，美國淨銷售額成長了 5.3%，其中有機成長為 4.4%，收購貢獻了 0.9%。營業利潤為 8.06 億美元，比前一年增加了 1.09 億美元，營業利益率為 10.4%。在加拿大，淨銷售額比去年增長了 2.2%，其中有機增長為 0.7%，收購貢獻了 4.6%，但部分被匯率波動帶來的 1.6% 的不利影響以及非核心業務剝離帶來的 1.5% 的影響所抵消。加拿大市場依然低迷，尤其是住宅市場。營業利潤為1600萬美元，比去年減少了700萬美元。

Moving next to our cash flow performance for the quarter. EBITDA of $867 million was $109 million ahead of last year. Working capital investments of $440 million during the quarter was up slightly from $376 million in the prior year, principally driven by timing.

接下來我們來看看本季的現金流表現。息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 8.67 億美元，比去年同期成長 1.09 億美元。本季營運資本投資為 4.4 億美元，較上年同期的 3.76 億美元略有成長，主要受時間因素影響。

Operating cash flow is $430 million, compared to $345 million in the prior year. We have continued to invest in organic growth through CapEx, investing $118 million in the quarter, resulting in free cash flow of $325 million, compared to $274 million in the prior year.

經營現金流為 4.3 億美元，去年同期為 3.45 億美元。我們繼續透過資本支出投資於內生成長，本季投資了 1.18 億美元，產生了 3.25 億美元的自由現金流，而去年同期為 2.74 億美元。

Turning to capital allocation, as previously mentioned, we invested $440 million in working capital and another $118 million in CapEx to further build on our competitive advantages and drive above market organic growth. We paid $164 million of dividends during the quarter and our Board declared an $0.89 per share quarterly dividend, representing a 7% increase on the prior year and reflecting our confidence in the business. We continue to consolidate our fragmented markets through both on geographic and capability acquisitions.

關於資本配置，如前所述，我們投資了 4.4 億美元用於營運資金，另投資 1.18 億美元用於資本支出，以進一步鞏固我們的競爭優勢並推動高於市場平均水平的內生成長。本季我們支付了 1.64 億美元的股息，董事會宣布每股季度股息為 0.89 美元，比上年增長 7%，反映了我們對業務的信心。我們將繼續透過地域和能力收購來整合我們分散的市場。

As Kevin mentioned, we completed the acquisition of Moore Supply Company during the quarter, a great addition to our HVAC presence in the Chicago area. Our markets remain very highly fragmented, and our acquisition pipeline is healthy.

正如凱文所提到的，我們在本季完成了對摩爾供應公司的收購，這大大增強了我們在芝加哥地區的暖通空調業務。我們的市場仍然高度分散，但我們的收購管道依然暢通。

Finally, we are committed to returning surplus capital to shareholders when we are below the low end of our target leverage range of 1 to 2 times net debt to EBITDA. We returned $208 million to shareholders via share repurchases during the quarter, reducing the share count by nearly [1 million] and we have approximately $800 million outstanding under the current share repurchase program.

最後，我們承諾，當淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率低於我們目標槓桿範圍（1 至 2 倍）的下限時，將剩餘資本回饋給股東。本季我們透過股票回購向股東返還了 2.08 億美元，減少了近 100 萬股股票，目前我們還有約 8 億美元的股票回購計畫尚未實施。

Now turning to our updated calendar 2025 guidance. We are pleased with our continued market outperformance and solid growth in the quarter. We are well positioned to deliver a strong calendar year 2025 performance and remain confident in our markets over the medium term despite near-term uncertainties.

現在就來看看我們更新的 2025 年曆指南。我們對本季持續優於市場的表現和穩健成長感到滿意。儘管短期內存在不確定性，但我們已做好充分準備，將在 2025 年取得強勁的業績，並對中期市場充滿信心。

We now expect approximately 5% revenue growth for the year and we expect an operating margin range of between 9.4% to 9.6% up from our prior expectation of between 9.2% to 9.6%. Interest expense is expected to be approximately $190 million for the year. We estimate CapEx of approximately $350 million, the upper end of our previous guide. We continue to expect our effective tax rate to land at approximately 26%. We believe we are well positioned as we finish the year and head into the new calendar year.

我們現在預計全年營收成長約 5%，營業利潤率預計在 9.4% 至 9.6% 之間，高於我們先前預期的 9.2% 至 9.6%。預計本年度利息支出約1.9億美元。我們預計資本支出約為 3.5 億美元，這是我們先前預測的上限。我們仍然預計實際稅率將維持在 26% 左右。我們相信，在年末之際，我們已做好充分準備迎接新的一年。

Thank you, and I'll now pass back to Kevin.

謝謝，現在我把麥克風交還給凱文。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

As we conclude our remarks, let me first reiterate our thanks for the hard work and diligence of our expert associates. They continue to execute on our growth strategy as we work to drive construction productivity for our customers. We're particularly pleased with the double-digit non-residential growth as our teams closely collaborate to simplify projects, bring order to chaos, and deliver end-to-end solutions to help maximize customer success.

在我們結束演講之際，首先請允許我再次感謝我們專家同事們的辛勤工作和盡職盡責。他們將繼續執行我們的成長策略，並努力提高客戶的施工效率。我們對非住宅業務兩位數的成長感到特別滿意，因為我們的團隊緊密合作，簡化項目，理順混亂，並提供端到端的解決方案，以幫助客戶取得最大成功。

We're poised to deliver a strong calendar 2025 performance and our strong balance sheet enables us to invest in organic growth, consolidate our fragmented markets through acquisitions, and return capital to our shareholders. We'll continue to operate at the lower end of our target leverage range, maintain flexibility that capitalizes on strategic opportunities as they arise.

我們已做好準備，在 2025 年取得強勁的業績，我們強大的資產負債表使我們能夠投資於內生成長，透過收購整合我們分散的市場，並向股東返還資本。我們將繼續在目標槓桿率範圍的較低水平上運營，保持靈活性，以便在出現策略機會時抓住機會。

We remain confident in our markets over the medium term and expect to continue to outperform our markets as we leverage multi-year structural tailwinds. [With our] size, scale, and strategy, we believe we're well positioned to take advantage of opportunities in the underbuilt and aging US housing market, non-residential large capital projects, and the growing demand for water and air specialized professionals.

我們對中期市場前景依然充滿信心，並期望藉助多年來的結構性利好因素，繼續跑贏大盤。憑藉我們的規模、實力和策略，我們相信我們已做好充分準備，把握美國住房市場（尤其是那些建設不足且老舊房屋較多的市場）、非住宅大型資本項目以及對水和空氣專業人才日益增長的需求所帶來的機遇。

Thank you for your time today. Bill and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator, I'll hand the call back over to you.

感謝您今天抽出時間。比爾和我現在很樂意回答你們的問題。接線員，我這就把電話轉回給你。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Matt Bouley, Barclays.

馬特·布雷，巴克萊銀行。

Wanted to start on the data center and large capital projects. I'm wondering if at this point, given all the growth you've seen, you're able to quantify, perhaps what portion of the business that is for you today, and maybe kind of where that can get to. But also, I'm curious if you can kind of, I don't know, give us a little bit of color on the timing of bidding and the momentum and if there's any risk of kind of lumpiness given how those projects work and how you shift to them or if we should kind of think that this is going to be more of a I don't know smoother kind of outlook for that business.

想著手資料中心和大型資本專案。我想知道，鑑於你們目前取得的所有成長，你們是否能夠量化一下，這在你們的業務中佔多大比例，以及它未來可能達到的水平。另外，我還想請您稍微介紹一下投標的時間安排和進展勢頭，以及考慮到這些項目的運作方式和您如何轉向這些項目，是否存在任何波動風險，或者我們是否應該認為這對於這項業務來說將是一個更加平穩的前景。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, good morning, Matt. Thanks for the question. This is Bill. I'll start with that one.

早安，馬特。謝謝你的提問。這是比爾。我先從那一個開始。

If you take a step back and look at overall large capital projects for us, we would estimate that that is somewhere between mid- to high-single-digits as a percentage of our total company revenue at this point with data centers specifically being a bit over 50% of that, a bit over half of that overall large capital project revenue.

如果退後一步，看看我們整體的大型資本項目，我們估計目前這些項目占公司總收入的比例在個位數中高段位，其中資料中心項目佔比略高於 50%，也就是大型資本項目總收入的一半多一點。

In terms of what we're seeing in the market, the pipeline does continue to grow. So we're seeing, additional projects coming into planning. We're then seeing that continue to flow into additional bidding activity and our open order volume on large capital projects does continue to grow and you're seeing that you saw it come through revenue this quarter principally in the commercial mechanical business which was up 21% and then a portion of that waterworks business which grew 14%.

從我們目前在市場上看到的情況來看，專案儲備確實持續成長。所以我們看到，更多的項目正在規劃中。我們看到，這種趨勢繼續轉化為更多的投標活動，大型資本項目的未完成訂單量也持續增長，並且在本季度，這種增長主要體現在商業機械業務的收入上，該業務增長了 21%，其次是水務業務的一部分，該業務增長了 14%。

So we are continuing to see that activity grow. Certainly, the gestation period of these projects is much longer than maybe our traditional projects and so yes, there could be some lumpiness in terms of revenue rates as we move into the future, but overall, we remain bullish that this is a continued growth area for us and we'll continue to be driving revenue as we exit '25 and step into '26.

因此，我們看到這項活動持續成長。當然，這些項目的孕育期比我們傳統的項目要長得多，因此，隨著我們邁向未來，收入增長率可能會出現一些波動，但總的來說，我們仍然樂觀地認為這將是我們持續增長的領域，我們將繼續推動收入增長，直到 2025 年結束，2026 年到來。

And Matt. As Bill said, the lumpiness will likely be there in the gestation period for these projects is going to be longer, but that's part of the reason why we're reasonably pleased with our progress as you look at our ability to live or scale a multi-customer group approach, a broad base of vendors that can bring product to the site on time and in full. The impact of modular construction on data center work, that's all serving us well in terms of what those share gains look like, especially against a backdrop where traditional non-res is in a pretty challenging spot.

還有馬特。正如比爾所說，這些專案的孕育期可能會比較長，過程中難免會出現一些波折，但這正是我們對自身進展感到相當滿意的原因之一，因為我們有能力實施或擴展多客戶群方法，並擁有廣泛的供應商基礎，可以按時、完整地將產品交付到現場。模組化建築對資料中心工程的影響，就市場份額的成長而言，對我們大有裨益，尤其是在傳統非住宅建築面臨嚴峻挑戰的背景下。

Alright, that's perfect. Thanks for that, guys.

好的，完美。謝謝各位。

And then, secondly, kind of jumping into the outlook, I guess, maybe this is since a bit of an unusual period here where you're guiding to just kind of the sub period. I guess I'm curious if you kind of give us any color on the November or quarter-to-date results. But just given this is sort of a smaller and again an unusual guidance outlook here. If you're willing to kind of give any early 2026 thoughts across the end markets kind of carry over inflation, et cetera sort of help us point us direction a little bit into next year.

其次，展望一下前景，我想，這可能是一個有點不尋常的時期，你正在引導我們進入一個子時期。我很好奇您能否透露一下11月份或本季迄今的業績情況。但考慮到這只是一個規模較小且不尋常的指導展望。如果您願意就 2026 年初終端市場的一些想法，例如通膨延續等，提出一些見解，將有助於我們為明年指明方向。

Sure, yeah, Matt, as we maybe as we take a step back, if you recall when we set out our calendar '25 guidance at the end of our fiscal year in July, we had talked about the first half of the calendar year growth being about 5% and our expectation that we believed that that growth was going to get a bit more challenging as we worked through the calendar year, particularly towards the end of the calendar year. As we were expecting additional new res pressure and HVAC pressure to step up, and that's what we've started to see play through. So very much in line with our expectations.

當然，馬特，當我們回顧一下時，如果你還記得我們在7月份財年結束時公佈的2025年日曆年業績指引，我們當時談到，日曆年上半年的增長約為5%，並且我們預計，隨著日曆年的推進，尤其是在日曆年末，增長將面臨更大的挑戰。正如我們預期的那樣，新的住宅壓力和暖通空調壓力將會上升，而我們也已經開始看到這種情況發生。完全符合我們的預期。

Maybe I'll shift to the calendar quarter as we're going to try to get to the calendar year reporting now. If you look at calendar Q4 to date, so October, November, and basically the first week, week and a half of December, our total growth is sitting at about 3% for that period. Again, very much in line with our expectations with that additional pressure on new resi and HVAC.

或許我會改用季度報告製，因為我們現在正努力實現按年報告。如果從日曆第四季至今來看，也就是 10 月、11 月以及 12 月的第一周到第一周半，我們在此期間的總成長率約為 3%。再次強調，這完全符合我們的預期，因為新建住宅和暖通空調系統面臨額外的壓力。

And so clearly now with about three weeks to go, I would expect our calendar Q4 growth rates to be somewhere in that 3% range as we round out the year. And then as we look forward into the '26, we will set out our calendar '26 guidance in February. We're back with you in a couple of months as we get onto that calendar year cycle, but the early part of '26, we wouldn't expect much change from a market perspective or much different as we exit the year at about that 3% range and then step into the new year. But again, we'll set out our views on the market and our views on our guidance in February.

因此，現在距離年底還有大約三週時間，我預計我們第四季的成長率將在 3% 左右。展望 2026 年，我們將在 2 月公佈 2026 年的日程安排。幾個月後，隨著新一年的到來，我們將再次與您會面。但在 2026 年年初，我們預計市場不會有太大變化，也不會有太大不同，因為我們將以大約 3% 的漲幅結束這一年，然後進入新的一年。但是，我們將在二月再次闡述我們對市場和績效指引的看法。

Excellent. Thanks, Bill. Good luck, guys.

出色的。謝謝你，比爾。祝你們好運。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾，威廉·布萊爾。

I want to follow-up on the last comment on 4Q. Just a little bit of a slowdown there to growth up 3%. Is there anything that stands out or is it just maybe just seasonally, it's just a bit softer (technical difficulty) at this point?

我想就第四季的最後一則評論做個補充說明。增速略為放緩，至 3%。有什麼特別突出的地方嗎？還是只是季節性的原因，目前技術難度稍微較低？

It is that new res pressure continuing to play through, Ryan. If you go back, permits and starts, as everybody's well aware, had continued to weaken through the calendar year. Outside of our waterworks business, there's a little bit of a lag of those slower starts coming through the rest of our customer groups and then play through on revenue. So I think we're just seeing that playing through on those weaker starts.

瑞恩，正是這種新的資源壓力持續發揮作用。回顧過去，正如大家所知，許可證和開工量在這一年中持續走弱。除了自來水業務之外，其他客戶群的啟動速度較慢，這會帶來一定的滯後性，然後才會逐漸轉化為收入。所以我覺得我們看到的只是這種現像在那些開局較弱的比賽中反映出來而已。

And then certainly there's more HVAC pressure which we talked about during our last quarterly conference call. Our HVAC business was down about 6% for our first quarter or for the quarter ended October 31. That growth got a little bit more challenging towards the end of the quarter as the market's in a pretty tough spot. So I think those two -- those are the two pressure points we would point to. Still, as you look through that, we're very bullish and optimistic on the HVAC market overall over the medium to long term and we would believe that residential at some point will stabilize on the new resi side.

當然，還有暖通空調的更大壓力，我們在上一次季度電話會議上也討論過這個問題。我們的暖通空調業務在第一季（即截至 10 月 31 日的季度）下降了約 6%。到了季度末，由於市場情況相當嚴峻，這種成長勢頭受到了一些挑戰。所以我認為，這兩個點——就是我們要指出的兩個壓力點。不過，縱觀整個市場，我們對中長期暖通空調市場整體非常看好和樂觀，我們相信住宅市場在某個時候會在新建住宅方面趨於穩定。

Got it. That makes sense and pretty consistent with what we're hearing.

知道了。這很有道理，也和我們聽到的消息相當吻合。

Let me shift the pricing. It looks like it came in a little better than you thought. Maybe talk about that and then talk about how the commodities are trending and if you expect supplier price increases as we head into the new year.

我來調整一下價格。看起來比你想像的還要好。或許可以先談談這個，然後再談談大宗商品的價格走勢，以及你是否預期在新的一年裡供應商的價格會上漲。

Yeah, overall in the quarter inflation was about 3%, so to your point it stepped up from about 2% in the previous quarter to 3% this quarter. Finished goods was up a little bit more than it was in the prior quarter, so I'd still consider that kind of at the high end of that low-single-digit range and commodities were down in the low-single-digit range still as a basket.

是的，本季整體通膨率約為 3%，正如您所說，通膨率從上一季的約 2% 上升到本季的 3%。成品價格比上一季略有上漲，因此我仍然認為其漲幅處於個位數低段的較高水平，而大宗商品價格作為一個整體仍然在個位數低段下降。

If you look at commodities, three main baskets within that group. [PDC], which is our largest commodity basket, is still in deflation, down in the double-digit range, kind of that low-double digit range. Steel is up. I would call that mild inflation, and then we're still seeing strong inflation on copper tube and fitting. So overall pretty consistent with what we expected as we round out the first quarter and enter into the end of the calendar year.

如果你觀察大宗商品，你會發現其中有三個主要類別。 [PDC]是我們最大的大宗商品類別，目前仍處於通貨緊縮狀態，跌幅在兩位數以內，或者說是兩位數以低的跌幅。鋼鐵價格上漲。我會稱之為溫和的通貨膨脹，但我們仍然看到銅管和管件的價格出現強勁的通貨膨脹。所以整體而言，這與我們的預期基本一致，第一季即將結束，一年即將結束。

And if we look at entering the calendar '26, we would expect modest price increases that are in line with traditional behavior on the finished goods side of the world, and those announcements are coming through right now. Hard to say what's going to happen with all of the different dynamics that are involved in the market right now but our expectation is that it'll be a more normalized pricing environment, knowing full well that we had six quarters of deflation before we got back to flat and then plus two in the previous quarter.

如果我們展望 2026 年，我們預期價格將出現小幅上漲，這與世界成品市場的傳統行為一致，而這些消息現在也陸續公佈了。很難說目前市場中涉及的各種動態因素將會發生什麼，但我們預計價格環境將更加正常化，因為我們完全清楚，在恢復到持平狀態之前，我們經歷了六個季度的通貨緊縮，然後在上個季度又上漲了兩個季度。

All right, good job. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

好的，幹得好。我會轉達的。謝謝。

Dave Manthey, Baird.

戴夫·曼西，貝爾德。

Along the lines of the pricing discussion here with price looking like it's going to represent a pretty positive factor year over year through the coming calendar year against what appears to be pretty easy deflation affected comps last year. Should we continue to expect incremental margins to run ahead of that targeted 11% to 13% rate given the contribution from positive pricing over the course of the next four quarters?

沿著價格討論的方向來看，與去年受通貨緊縮影響較小的同業比較相比，價格在未來一年將成為一個相當積極的因素。鑑於未來四個季度積極的定價策略所帶來的貢獻，我們是否應該繼續預期增量利潤率將超過 11% 至 13% 的目標水準？

Maybe to step back, Dave, we're very pleased with the operating margin improvement that the business has delivered this calendar year. If you go back to calendar '24, we delivered a 9.1% operating margin. We've just given our updated guidance, which is 9.4% to 9.6%. So call that a 9.5% at the midpoint, so we're expecting a very solid progression on operating margins this year of somewhere in that 30 to 50 basis point range.

戴夫，或許我們應該退一步說，我們對公司本年度的營業利潤率提升非常滿意。如果追溯到 2024 年，我們實現了 9.1% 的營業利潤率。我們剛剛發布了更新後的預期，即 9.4% 至 9.6%。因此，我們姑且將其視為 9.5% 的中間值，因此我們預計今年的營業利潤率將取得非常穩健的增長，增幅在 30 到 50 個基點之間。

Now I would remind you we did have a bit of outsized gross margin gain during the middle part of this calendar year. Recall we had a quarter with 31% and then 31.7% gross margins and we had flagged that there was some impact of the timing and extent of supplier price increases.

我想提醒各位，我們在今年年中確實獲得了相當可觀的毛利率成長。回想一下，我們之前有一個季度的毛利率為 31%，然後是 31.7%，我們當時就指出，供應商漲價的時機和幅度對毛利率產生了一定的影響。

And then we expected that gross margin to normalize and you've seen that play through now in this last quarter, so we wouldn't expect that kind of outsized gain to repeat next year, so probably actually a little bit of a headwind in the middle part of the calendar year versus the prior year '26 to '25.

然後我們預計毛利率會恢復正常，而你們也已經看到，在上個季度，這種情況已經發生了，所以我們預計明年不會再出現如此巨大的增長，因此，與上一年（2026 年至 2025 年）相比，2026 年年中可能會面臨一些不利因素。

We'll set out our guidance for overall operating margins next year and certainly that will be dependent on what the market environment is like assuming that we have a supportive market and we have decent growth, we would expect some modest progression on operating margins next year. But again, we'll be back with you in February and give you a more clear view of what we expect at that point.

我們將於明年公佈整體營業利潤率的預期，當然，這將取決於市場環境。假設市場環境良好，且我們實現穩健成長，我們預計明年營業利潤率將出現小幅成長。但是，我們將在二月再次與大家見面，屆時我們將更清楚地說明我們的預期。

Makes sense. Thank you.

有道理。謝謝。

And second, as it relates to the $2 billion-ish in revenues from major projects that you discussed, it seems like you've been having a lot of success there because of the one Ferguson effort. Could you, maybe I don't know if you could quantify or bigger than a breadbasket, tell us what percentage of those projects do you get more than one product and customer group via the one Ferguson effort versus not? Is that something you could share with us?

其次，關於你提到的重大項目帶來的約 20 億美元的收入，看來你在那方面取得了很大的成功，這都歸功於弗格森事件。您能否告訴我們，透過 Ferguson 的單一努力，您能量化或比麵包籃更大的規模，並告訴我們您有多少百分比的項目能夠獲得多個產品和客戶群體，又有多少百分比的項目沒有獲得？能和我們分享一下嗎？

Yeah Dave, thank you. And certainly when we talk about large capital projects, we're talking about those projects north of $400 million in overall construction value and so it's a varied group. Certainly, data center gets a lot of the attention today, but it's beyond that to pharma, biotechnology, onshoring, reshoring, and manufacturing, and others.

是的，戴夫，謝謝你。當然，當我們談到大型資本項目時，我們指的是總建設價值超過 4 億美元的項目，因此這是一個種類繁多的群體。當然，資料中心如今備受關注，但其影響遠不止於此，還包括製藥、生物技術、本土化、再本土化、製造業等等。

And so the projects do vary. I will say, and people ask us quite a bit about what happens after large capital projects aren't the talk of the day, and the answer to that is really a new way of working for Ferguson. And so we are engaged early on in the construction process, early on with general contractors and owners around what specifications look like, how we can make sure that we have supply chains that stand up to timelines, and so doing that together with the contractors on the job.

因此，各個項目確實各不相同。我想說，很多人問我們，大型資本項目不再是人們關注的焦點之後會發生什麼，而答案實際上是弗格森公司的一種新的工作方式。因此，我們很早就參與到施工過程中，很早就與總承包商和業主一起討論規範是什麼，如何確保我們的供應鏈能夠按時完成，並與現場的承包商一起完成這些工作。

We're engaging most of our nonresidential customer groups on these projects, whether that be industrial, fire and fabrication, waterworks, commercial, mechanical, and they vary again depending on the kind of job, but that's the way we intend to work as we move forward. Never abandoning the local relationships that we have with our core contractor base, but also making sure that we can deliver on tight timelines and make sure that we've got the right product set for the job to deliver.

我們正在與大多數非住宅客戶群合作開展這些項目，包括工業、消防和製造、水務、商業、機械等領域，具體情況會根據工作類型而有所不同，但這就是我們未來打算採取的工作方式。我們絕不會放棄與核心承包商群體建立的本地關係，同時也要確保我們能夠在緊迫的時間內交付成果，並確保我們擁有完成工作所需的正確產品組合。

Keith Hughes, Truist.

Keith Hughes，Truist。

This is [Julian] on for Keith.

這是朱利安替基斯上場。

Just in terms of the HVAC, when do you think coms are going to start to ease the free shipments ahead of the standard change from last year?

就暖通空調設備而言，您認為通訊公司何時會開始放寬免費送貨的限制，以應對去年標準的變化？

Yeah, I think again to build on what Bill has already said that the market's in a tough spot right now. We saw it get a bit worse as we went through the quarter and exited October. It's a variety of factors though. You've got a bit of the A2L transition as you had pull forward. You certainly have equipment price increase playing in now as the majority of the sell-through is in that new equipment standard, and then you've got a pressured consumer that is moving a bit to repair versus replace environment and then you had some degree of playthrough on multi-family new construction that is now passed.

是的，我認為應該再次強調比爾之前所說的，目前市場處境艱難。隨著季度推進，情況在十月惡化。但這其中涉及多種因素。你已經體驗了一點 A2L 過渡的感覺，因為你向前拉了一下。現在設備價格上漲肯定是一個影響因素，因為大部分銷售都採用了新的設備標準；此外，消費者面臨壓力，正在轉向維修而不是更換；而且，多戶住宅新建項目也在一定程度上發揮了作用，現在已經通過了。

And so we're pleased with the overall execution. When does that start to get back to a replace environment? When do we start to see a bit of residential life? That's tough to pinpoint. For us, we're bullish on what that market looks like over time and we're going to continue to build out convenient locations across the United States, continue to build out our OEM brand representation, we're going to continue to focus on M&A expansion as we capitalize on what we think is a growing trend with that dual trade contractor.

因此，我們對整體執行情況感到滿意。什麼時候才會開始恢復到替換環境？我們什麼時候才能看到一些居民生活？這很難確定。我們看好這個市場未來的發展前景，我們將繼續在美國各地建立便利的網點，繼續擴大我們的 OEM 品牌影響力，我們將繼續專注於併購擴張，因為我們認為這種雙重貿易承包商的成長趨勢正在發生。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

史考特‧施內伯格，奧本海默。

I want to touch on some SG&A topics. Last fiscal year, we made investments in trainees, HVAC counter expansion, large project teams. Just could I get an update on how these investments have been trending, what you're looking for maybe going out over the coming year and impacts of these investments to date. Thanks.

我想談談銷售、管理及行政費用的一些議題。上個財政年度，我們對學員、暖通空調櫃檯擴建、大型專案團隊進行了投資。能否告知我這些投資的最新進展情況，您預計未來一年會有哪些投資機會，以及這些投資迄今的影響？謝謝。

Yeah, Scott, thanks for the question.

是的，斯科特，謝謝你的提問。

First off, from a trainee perspective, our trainee program is something that's been really foundational to the success of this company over decades now, and it's an area that we invest in in good markets and in bad markets, so we continue to add trainees year in, year out to fuel our pipeline of talent. This year, we added roughly 250 to 300 trainees in our classes throughout the year and we would expect to continue that program and expand that program as we step into calendar '26.

首先，從學員的角度來看，我們的學員計畫是公司幾十年來成功的基礎，無論市場行情好壞，我們都會在這個領域進行投資，因此我們年復一年地增加學員，以充實我們的人才儲備。今年，我們在全年的課程中增加了大約 250 至 300 名學員，我們預計在進入 2026 年之際，將繼續並擴大該計劃。

In terms of additional investments, Kevin just talked about our HVAC expansion plans and the buildout of convenient locations. We have now completed roughly 650 counter conversions, so that is both taking HVAC counters and adding plumbing products as well as taking plumbing counters and adding HVAC products. And it's not just the products, it's also the expertise and our associates that we train to ensure that we have experts serving experts.

關於追加投資方面，凱文剛才談到了我們的暖通空調擴建計畫和便利地點的建設。我們目前已完成了大約 650 個櫃檯改造，其中包括將 HVAC 櫃檯改造為管道產品櫃檯，以及將管道櫃檯改造為 HVAC 產品櫃檯。不僅是產品，還有我們的專業知識和員工，我們培訓他們以確保我們有專家為專家服務。

We believe that is yielding real fruit. So despite a very challenging HVAC environment, we believe we are outperforming that HVAC market and have done so for the last several quarters, and we will continue, as Kevin said, to fuel that growth, to ensure that we expand that HVAC footprint.

我們相信這會結出真正的果實。因此，儘管暖通空調市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們相信我們已超越了暖通空調市場，並且在過去幾個季度中一直如此，正如凱文所說，我們將繼續推動成長，以確保我們擴大暖通空調業務的規模。

And maybe lastly, we're continuing to invest from a technology in a digital standpoint, and so we continue to invest in new technology tools -- digital tools, principally in the areas of HVAC, and for the repair, replace plumbing contractor. We're very pleased with the progress that we've made with many of those investments.

最後，我們將繼續從數位化的角度進行技術投資，因此我們將繼續投資新的技術工具——數位工具，主要集中在暖通空調領域，以及維修、更換管道承包商領域。我們對其中許多投資項目的進展非常滿意。

If you take a step back from an overall SG&A perspective, we've been able to continue to invest in those types of areas to fuel future growth while we've managed the cost base, and we did take some cost actions earlier in this calendar year that we talked about a couple of quarters ago. Those cost actions have played through where we've received the benefits of that. And so while even though we're operating and still a bit of a challenging top-line market environment, we're delivering good quality SG&A leverage while we're continuing to invest in the business for the future, so we feel good about where the cost base sits as we exit calendar '25 and enter calendar '26.

從整體的銷售、一般及行政費用角度來看，我們一直能夠繼續投資於這些領域，以推動未來的成長，同時我們也控制了成本基礎。而且，我們在今年稍早採取了一些成本控制措施，這些措施我們在幾個季度前就討論過。這些成本控制措施已經發揮作用，我們也從中受益。因此，儘管我們仍在運營，並且面臨著一些具有挑戰性的營收市場環境，但我們實現了良好的銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿，同時我們也在繼續為業務的未來進行投資，因此，我們對2025年末和2026年初的成本基礎狀況感到滿意。

And maybe to just build on what Bill was saying. Certainly, the trainee aspect is a long-term investment in the business and making sure that we have a pipeline of talented associates to grow this business over time. He spoke about the HVAC business so it won't be repetitive there but when you look at what investments we've made in waterworks diversification and making sure that we have a broad book of business from residential to public works to water waste, water treatment plant to geosynthetics and soil stabilization, that is serving us well and certainly we're pleased with a 14% growth rate. We're pleased with the large capital project space.

或許只是為了補充比爾剛才說的話。當然，培訓生計畫是對企業的長期投資，旨在確保我們擁有源源不絕的優秀人才，從而推動業務的長期發展。他談到了暖通空調業務，所以這裡不會重複，但是當你看看我們在水務多元化方面所做的投資，以及確保我們擁有從住宅到公共工程、水務廢物、水處理廠、土工合成材料和土壤穩定等廣泛的業務組合時，你會發現這些投資對我們很有幫助，我們對 14% 的增長率當然很滿意。我們對大型資本項目空間感到滿意。

We talked about a multi-customer group approach and engaging early on in the project, but we're also investing in value-added services like fabrication, valve actuation and automation, and virtual design and so that's serving us well obviously with [a plus 21] in the commercial mechanical business we're pleased.

我們討論了多客戶群體方法以及在專案早期階段就參與其中，但我們也投資於增值服務，如製造、閥門驅動和自動化以及虛擬設計，這顯然對我們在商業機械業務方面大有裨益，我們對此感到滿意。

And then lastly when you talk about Ferguson Home and bringing together what is a best-in-class digital platform with a showroom experience and a consultative approach and a builder outside sales force that's driving growth with the connected consumer, that builder designer and remodeler. And so we think all of those investments are proving to be successful as we move through what is a challenging environment.

最後，談到 Ferguson Home，它將一流的數位平台、展廳體驗、諮詢服務以及建築商外部銷售團隊結合起來，從而推動了與互聯消費者、建築商、設計師和改造商的成長。因此，我們認為，在我們應對當前充滿挑戰的環境時，所有這些投資都已被證明是成功的。

Great, thanks guys. And just to follow-up.

太好了，謝謝各位。最後再補充一點。

You spoke a little bit earlier, you were asked about the supplier pricing going into next year. I'm just curious at that from a high level, how are you thinking about managing inventory as you enter 2026? Thanks.

您之前也發言過，有人問過您明年的供應商定價狀況。我只是從宏觀層面好奇，您認為進入 2026 年後，您是如何考慮庫存管理的？謝謝。

Yeah, we think our inventories are in a good spot right now. Teams are doing a really nice job and have done so managing through a unique environment with price increases coming through the system this year. So I wouldn't expect significant changes to the inventory profile as we exit calendar '25 and enter calendar '26. I think we have the right levels of inventory to take care of our customers and to support continued market outperformance.

是的，我們認為我們目前的庫存狀況良好。各團隊都做得非常出色，在今年物價上漲的特殊環境下，依然出色地完成了管理工作。因此，我預計在 2025 年結束、2026 年開始之際，庫存狀況不會有重大變化。我認為我們目前的庫存水準適中，既能滿足客戶需求，又能支持我們持續超越市場表現。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research。

So you gave a bit of cover on the calendar fourth quarter. I missed any gross margin commentary just wondering if there's any sense on how that's been trending Q2 date.

所以你稍微透露了一下第四季的日程安排。我錯過了任何關於毛利率的評論，只是想知道第二季毛利率的趨勢如何。

Yeah, I would think of it, Nigel, in a pretty similar range to the quarter that we just reported and as we had talked about coming out of the summer months that we had expected to get back more into that normalized range of somewhere between 30% and 31%, so I think you can expect it in that range as we exit the calendar year.

是的，Nigel，我認為它與我們剛剛公佈的季度數據大致相同，而且正如我們之前討論過的，隨著夏季的結束，我們預計數據會恢復到30%到31%之間的正常範圍內，所以我認為在年底之前，你可以預期它會在這個範圍內。

Great. And then a lot of helpful commentary on the larger project side. In terms of, I know this would probably be in quite a range, but any sense on what Ferguson's opportunity would be on a typical large project? Again, I know there's no typical large project but any sense on what the kind of content might be for Ferguson.

偉大的。此外，還有很多關於整個專案方面的有益評論。我知道這可能涉及的範圍很廣，但對於弗格森在一個典型的大型專案中能獲得的機會，您有什麼看法？我知道沒有典型的大型項目，但能否告訴我弗格森項目可能會包含哪些類型的內容？

Yeah, it will a caveat it was -- it will vary significantly depending on the type of project. But -- and as Kevin talked about when we talk about large capital projects, we're talking about those projects that have construction value north of $400 million.

是的，但需要注意的是——具體情況會因項目類型而異。但是——正如凱文所說，當我們談論大型資本項目時，我們指的是那些建立價值超過 4 億美元的項目。

As a general ballpark, you take that construction value and somewhere between 2% and 4% of the construction value would generally make up our product set and our customer group set, but again that will vary pretty significantly and that certainly doesn't include in the likes of the data center that wouldn't include the cost of the servers and chips and those types of interior pieces of equipment to run the data center it's more just that construction value.

一般來說，建築價值的 2% 到 4% 會構成我們的產品組合和客戶群體，但這會有很大差異，而且這當然不包括資料中心之類的項目，資料中心運作所需的伺服器、晶片和內部設備的成本就不包括在內，這僅僅是指建築價值。

Right, very helpful. Thank you.

好的，很有幫助。謝謝。

This concludes today's Q&A session. I'll now hand over to Kevin Murphy for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言權交給凱文墨菲，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, operator, and let's end the call in the way that we began with a strong thank you to our associates for their hard work and diligence in what is clearly a challenging market. As you heard today, we're pleased with the quarter, 5% revenue growth, expansion of growth and operating margin, 16% EPS growth, operating profit growth of 14%, continued investment in the business, and a strong balance sheet.

謝謝接線員，讓我們以與開始時一樣的方式結束通話，那就是衷心感謝我們的同事們在如此充滿挑戰的市場中付出的辛勤努力和勤勉。正如你們今天聽到的，我們對本季業績感到滿意，收入增長了 5%，增長和營業利潤率均有所提高，每股收益增長了 16%，營業利潤增長了 14%，對業務的持續投資以及強勁的資產負債表。

We're pleased with the execution of the teams and the continued investment in key growth areas that are yielding solid results as we're sat here today. We'll continue to focus on driving construction productivity for the water and air specialized professional. We're going to leverage scale with the best local relationships. We're going to continue investing in value-added services and digital tools.

我們對團隊的執行力以及對關鍵成長領域的持續投資感到滿意，這些投資在今天都取得了實際的成果。我們將繼續致力於提高水和空氣專業施工人員的生產力。我們將利用規模優勢和最佳的本地關係。我們將繼續投資於增值服務和數位化工具。

So thank you very much for your time today. Have a happy holidays and we'll talk to you soon. Thank you.

非常感謝您今天抽出時間。祝您假期愉快，我們很快再聯絡。謝謝。

That concludes Ferguson's results for the quarter ended October 31, 2025, conference call. I'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

弗格森公司截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日的季度業績電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。