Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Ferguson fourth quarter and year-end results presentation. My name is Nadia and I'll be coordinating the call today.

大家好，歡迎參加弗格森第四季和年終業績發表會。我叫納迪亞，今天我將負責協調這場電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

I will now hand over to your host, Brian Lantz, Vice President of Investor Relations, and Communications to begin. Brian, please go ahead.

現在我將把主持人、投資人關係和通訊副總裁 Brian Lantz 交給他。布萊恩，請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Ferguson's fourth quarter earnings conference call and webcast. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the earnings announcement we issued this morning. The announcement is available in the Investors section of our corporate website and on our SEC filings web page. A recording of this call will be made available later today.

大家早安，歡迎參加弗格森第四季財報電話會議和網路直播。希望您有機會閱讀我們今天早上發布的收益公告。該公告可在我們公司網站的投資者部分和美國證券交易委員會備案網頁上查閱。此次通話的錄音將於今天稍晚公佈。

I want to remind everyone that some of our statements today may be forward looking and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, including the various risks and uncertainties discussed in our Form 10-K available on the SEC's website. Although any forward-looking statements represent the company's expectations only as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update these statements.

我想提醒大家，我們今天的一些聲明可能是前瞻性的，並且受某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預測結果有重大差異，包括美國證券交易委員會網站上提供的 10-K 表中討論的各種風險和不確定性。儘管任何前瞻性陳述僅代表本公司截至今天的預期，但我們不承擔更新這些陳述的任何義務。

In addition, on today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Therefore, all references to operating profit, operating margin, diluted earnings per share effective tax rate and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reflects certain non-GAAP adjustments. Please refer to our earnings presentation and announcement on our website for additional information regarding those non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。因此，所有提及營業利潤、營業利潤率、稀釋每股收益有效稅率和息稅折舊攤銷前利潤均反映了某些非公認會計準則調整。有關這些非 GAAP 指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，請參閱我們網站上的收益報告和公告。

With me on the call today are Kevin Murphy, our CEO; and Bill Brundage, our CFO. I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長凱文墨菲 (Kevin Murphy) 和我們的財務長比爾布倫戴奇 (Bill Brundage)。我現在將電話轉給凱文。

Thank you, Brian, and welcome to Ferguson's fourth quarter results conference call. On today's call, we'll cover highlights of our fourth quarter and full year performance and our market performance for fiscal year '25, including additional details on our customer groups and growth focus areas. Then we'll turn the call over to Bill to review financials, the change in our fiscal year and our new calendar year financial outlook before I wrap up with a few final comments. We'll have time to take your questions at the end.

謝謝你，布萊恩，歡迎參加弗格森第四季業績電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我們將介紹我們第四季度和全年業績的亮點以及 25 財年的市場表現，包括有關我們的客戶群和成長重點領域的更多詳細資訊。然後，我們將把電話轉給比爾，讓他審查財務狀況、財政年度的變化以及新日曆年的財務前景，然後我會總結一些最後的評論。最後我們會有時間回答您的問題。

In the fourth quarter, once again, our expert associates drove market outperformance and strong growth as they continue to serve our customers in a challenging market environment. Sales of $8.5 billion increased 6.9% over prior year, driven by organic growth of 5.8% and acquisition growth of 1.1%.

第四季度，我們的專家團隊再次推動了市場表現優異和強勁成長，並在充滿挑戰的市場環境中繼續為我們的客戶提供服務。銷售額達 85 億美元，較上年成長 6.9%，其中有機成長 5.8% 和收購成長 1.1%。

Gross margin of 31.7% increased 70 basis points over the prior year. We remain disciplined on cost and generated $972 million of operating profit, which grew 13.4% over last year. Diluted earnings per share increased 16.8% over prior year to $3.48. We continue to execute our capital priorities, deploying $483 million this quarter. Our investments in key growth areas, HVAC expansion, Waterworks diversification, large capital projects in Ferguson Home yielded solid results.

毛利率為31.7%，較前一年增加70個基點。我們嚴格控製成本，實現了 9.72 億美元的營業利潤，比去年增長 13.4%。稀釋每股收益較上年同期成長16.8%，達到3.48美元。我們繼續執行資本優先事項，本季已投入4.83億美元。我們在關鍵成長領域、暖通空調擴建、水廠多樣化、弗格森之家大型資本項目的投資取得了豐厚的成果。

We also announced four acquisitions in the quarter and one subsequent to the quarter, which focused primarily on HVAC and Waterworks diversification. We'll provide more details on these growth areas and the recent acquisitions later on the call.

我們還宣布了本季的四項收購以及本季之後的一項收購，主要集中在暖通空調和水廠的多樣化。我們將在稍後的電話會議上提供有關這些成長領域和最近收購的更多詳細資訊。

We're pleased to return $354 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends our balance sheet remains strong with net debt-to-EBITDA of 1.1 time. While we continue to operate in an uncertain environment, we remain confident in our markets over the medium term, leveraging multiyear tailwinds in both residential and nonresidential markets as we invest to support the complex project needs of the water and air specialized professional.

我們很高興透過股票回購和股息向股東返還 3.54 億美元，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。儘管我們繼續在不確定的環境中運營，但我們對中期市場仍然充滿信心，利用住宅和非住宅市場的多年順風，進行投資以支持水和空氣專業人士的複雜項目需求。

Turning to our performance by US end market in the fourth quarter. Net sales increased 7.1%, driven by our strong growth in nonresidential markets. The residential end market, which makes up about half our US revenue has remained subdued due to weakened new construction starts and permit activity as well as soft demand in repair, maintenance, and improvement. Residential revenue was flat in the quarter.

談談我們第四季美國終端市場的表現。受非住宅市場強勁成長的推動，淨銷售額成長了 7.1%。住宅終端市場約占我們美國收入的一半，但由於新開工和許可活動減弱以及維修、維護和改進方面的需求疲軟，該市場一直處於低迷狀態。本季住宅收入持平。

Nonresidential end markets, representing the other half of US revenue showed continued resilience with increased activity on large capital projects. We continue to grow share with nonresidential revenue growth of approximately 15%. We delivered 17% and 13% growth across commercial and civil infrastructure end markets, respectively, while Industrial grew 5%.

非住宅終端市場占美國收入的另一半，隨著大型資本項目活動的增加，其表現持續強勁。我們的份額持續成長，非住宅收入成長約 15%。我們在商業和民用基礎設施終端市場分別實現了 17% 和 13% 的成長，而工業市場成長了 5%。

Our intentional balanced end market exposure and focus on key growth initiatives continue to position us well both in the current environment and into the future. Moving to our US performance by customer group for the quarter. HVAC revenue was slightly down due to softer market conditions impacted by the industry's transition to new efficiency standards and weak new residential construction activity.

我們有意平衡終端市場曝光度並專注於關鍵成長計劃，這將使我們在當前環境和未來繼續處於有利地位。轉向本季按客戶群劃分的美國業績。由於行業向新的效率標準過渡以及新住宅建設活動疲軟，市場環境疲軟，暖通空調收入略有下降。

Despite these conditions, we were pleased with market outperformance during the quarter, particularly given the strong prior year comparable. Residential trade plumbing revenues decreased 2%. The business continues to face headwinds in new construction and ongoing PVC price deflation, while repair, maintenance and improvement is performing better.

儘管有這些情況，我們對本季的市場表現感到滿意，特別是考慮到去年同期的強勁表現。住宅貿易管道收入下降了2%。該業務繼續面臨新建築和持續的 PVC 價格通貨緊縮的阻力，而維修、維護和改進的表現則更好。

As we previously shared, we've merged our residential building and remodel and our residential digital commerce customer groups into a unified brand called Ferguson Home. This customer group accounts for approximately 19% of US sales and focuses on the higher-end project market, which delivered Ferguson Home revenue growth of 3% in the fourth quarter.

正如我們之前所分享的，我們已將住宅建築和改造以及住宅數位商務客戶群合併為一個名為 Ferguson Home 的統一品牌。該客戶群約占美國銷售額的 19%，專注於高階專案市場，為 Ferguson Home 第四季的營收帶來了 3% 的成長。

Both Waterworks and commercial mechanical continued to drive strong activity on large capital projects. Commercial mechanical revenue grew 21%, and Waterworks revenues increased 15%, both on top of prior year growth comparable. Our industrial, Fire and Fabrication and Facilities Supply customer groups delivered a combined net sales growth of 5%. Our multi-customer group approach uniquely positions us to solve complex project requirements and drive market outperformance.

水廠和商業機械持續推動大型資本項目的強勁活動。商業機械收入成長 21%，水務收入成長 15%，均高於去年同期的成長。我們的工業、消防和製造以及設施供應客戶群的綜合淨銷售額成長了 5%。我們的多客戶群方法使我們能夠解決複雜的專案需求並推動市場表現優異。

Turning to our full year performance. Our teams delivered solid results while faced with challenging markets and periods of deflation. Revenue of $30.8 billion was 3.8% ahead of last year. The actions we took to streamline our business and manage costs more diligently resulted in operating profit of $2.84 billion up 0.6%, representing a 9.2% operating margin for the year.

談到我們的全年業績。我們的團隊在面臨充滿挑戰的市場和通貨緊縮時期的情況下取得了穩健的業績。營收為 308 億美元，比去年成長 3.8%。我們採取的精簡業務和更嚴格管理成本的措施使營業利潤達到 28.4 億美元，成長 0.6%，全年營業利潤率為 9.2%。

Diluted earnings per share came in at $9.94, a 2.6% increase over last year. Cash generation was strong with $1.9 billion of operating cash flow, which allowed us to continue investing in our growth areas and executing our capital allocation priorities. We returned $1.4 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases during the year while also welcoming associates from nine acquisitions, continuing our strategy of consolidating our fragmented markets. And we continue to deliver strong overall returns on capital of approximately 29.4% for the year. Despite the challenging environment, we outperformed our markets, delivered solid volume growth, and drove profit expansion in fiscal '25.

每股攤薄收益為 9.94 美元，比去年增長 2.6%。現金產生能力強勁，營運現金流達到 19 億美元，這使我們能夠繼續投資於成長領域並執行資本配置重點。我們在本年度透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 14 億美元，同時也歡迎來自九次收購的員工，繼續我們整合分散市場的策略。我們今年繼續實現強勁的整體資本回報率，約為 29.4%。儘管面臨嚴峻挑戰，我們仍然在 25 財年表現優於市場，實現了穩健的銷售成長，並推動了利潤成長。

Next, our performance against the broader end markets for the year. Our residential end markets declined approximately 3%, a combination of weak new construction and softer RMI markets. We outperformed with organic revenue up 1%. Nonresidential markets were approximately flat as large capital project activity offset the weaker traditional non-resident activity like warehouse and office space.

接下來，我們來看看今年我們相對於更廣泛的終端市場的表現。我們的住宅終端市場下降了約 3%，這是由於新建築疲軟和 RMI 市場疲軟造成的。我們的業績表現出色，有機收入成長了 1%。非住宅市場基本上持平，因為大型資本項目活動抵消了倉庫和辦公空間等較弱的傳統非居民活動。

As we discussed in the past, we believe our scale, our size and our multi-customer group approach uniquely position us to provide value on large capital projects. We delivered 6% organic growth in the year, outperforming our typical 300 to 400 basis point market outperformance. And our balanced end market exposure continues to serve us well, and we've continued to take share across both end markets.

正如我們過去所討論的，我們相信我們的規模、我們的規模以及我們的多客戶群方法使我們能夠為大型資本項目提供價值。我們今年實現了 6% 的有機成長，超過了我們通常的 300 到 400 個基點的市場表現。我們均衡的終端市場曝光度持續為我們提供良好的服務，並且我們繼續在兩個終端市場佔據份額。

Now let me highlight our four key growth areas that continue to show ongoing returns from our multiyear investments. Our HVAC revenue increased 8% for the year, driven primarily by organic growth and approximately 1% from acquisitions.

現在，讓我重點介紹我們的四個關鍵成長領域，這些領域繼續顯示出我們多年投資的持續回報。我們的 HVAC 收入全年增長了 8%，主要得益於有機增長和約 1% 的收購。

By leveraging the synergy between our residential trade plumbing and HVAC customer groups, we continue to outperform the market. Dual trade counter conversions, geographic expansion of our HVAC network and strategic acquisitions make up the multipronged approach of our HVAC everywhere strategy. We've completed over 600 counter conversions, nearing our goal of 650, which we expect to achieve in early 2026.

透過利用住宅貿易管道和暖通空調客戶群之間的協同作用，我們繼續超越市場。雙重貿易櫃檯轉換、HVAC 網路的地理擴展和策略收購構成了我們 HVAC 無處不在策略的多管齊下的方法。我們已經完成了 600 多個櫃檯轉換，接近 650 個的目標，我們預計將在 2026 年初實現這一目標。

Our dual trade counters are uniquely positioned to serve approximately 65,000 dual trade contractors, which continue to make up a growing share of HVAC and plumbing markets. Our recent acquisitions of manufactured duct and Supply Company out of Atlanta in the fourth quarter and more supply out of Chicago, which was subsequent to year-end, further strengthen our HVAC strategy by expanding our footprint and continuing to support this dual trade professional.

我們的雙重貿易櫃檯具有獨特的優勢，可以為大約 65,000 個雙重貿易承包商提供服務，這些承包商在暖通空調和管道市場中所佔的份額持續增長。我們最近在第四季度收購了亞特蘭大的製造管道和供應公司，並在年底後收購了芝加哥的更多供應公司，透過擴大我們的業務範圍並繼續支持這種雙重貿易專業，進一步加強了我們的 HVAC 策略。

For Waterworks, our revenue grew 10% in fiscal year '25, driven by our diversification efforts as we expanded our capabilities to deliver a more integrated solution and address the nation's aging infrastructure.

對於水務部門而言，我們的收入在 25 財年增長了 10%，這得益於我們多元化的努力，因為我們擴展了提供更整合的解決方案和解決國家老化基礎設施的能力。

We've expanded our role as a strategic partner by collaborating with engineers and construction professionals during initial project stages and broadened our product offerings to include process equipment solutions. Specifically, our recent acquisitions of Templeton and Ritchie Environmental strengthened our expertise in water and wastewater treatment plant design. This adds to the existing breadth of solutions we already provide for water, wastewater, and green storm water management as well as erosion control, treatment plant construction and metering technology.

我們透過在專案初始階段與工程師和建築專業人員合作，擴大了我們作為策略合作夥伴的角色，並擴大了我們的產品範圍，包括製程設備解決方案。具體來說，我們最近對 Templeton 和 Ritchie Environmental 的收購增強了我們在水和廢水處理廠設計方面的專業知識。這擴大了我們現有的水、廢水和綠色雨水管理以及侵蝕控制、處理廠建造和計量技術解決方案的廣度。

Our unique approach to large capital projects and the rise in number of projects helped drive 7% total nonresidential growth for the year. We're pleased to be a trusted partner in managing these complex projects that require expertise, scale, operational agility, and value-added solutions. By bringing together the capabilities of underground Waterworks infrastructure commercial and industrial PVF and fire protection create a compelling solution, particularly for data centers, large manufacturing operations, life science and health care facilities.

我們對大型資本項目的獨特方法以及項目數量的增加幫助推動了全年非住宅總增長 7%。我們很高興成為管理這些需要專業知識、規模、營運敏捷性和增值解決方案的複雜專案的值得信賴的合作夥伴。透過整合地下水廠基礎設施、商業和工業 PVF 和防火功能，創造出引人注目的解決方案，特別是對於資料中心、大型製造業務、生命科學和醫療保健設施而言。

Onshoring and restoring initiatives aimed at growing domestic production are further driving activity of large capital projects. We believe our early alignment with owners, engineers and general contractors combined with our deep contractor relationships, our scale, and our ability to offer a suite of value-added solutions will continue to position us for success with these projects.

旨在提高國內產量的在岸和恢復措施進一步推動了大型資本項目的活動。我們相信，我們與業主、工程師和總承包商的早期合作，加上我們與承包商的深厚關係、我們的規模以及我們提供一系列增值解決方案的能力，將繼續使我們在這些專案上取得成功。

Ferguson Home began its rollout in February and is a key milestone in delivering a seamless customer experience across all touch points, including online and in person. It represents another compelling example of the value our multi-customer group approach brings to the market. In addition to enhancing the experience for residential customers, Ferguson Home is supported by a network of dedicated outside sales and showroom consultants who serve our specialized professional customers.

Ferguson Home 於二月開始推出，這是在所有接觸點（包括線上和線下）提供無縫客戶體驗的一個重要里程碑。這是我們多客戶群方法為市場帶來的價值的另一個令人信服的例子。除了增強住宅客戶的體驗之外，Ferguson Home 還擁有專門的外部銷售和展廳顧問網絡，為我們的專業客戶提供服務。

These associates bring deep product expertise and personalized service to builders, designers, and other trade professionals, helping meet their unique project needs with precision and care. Bringing together residential building and remodel and residential digital commerce reinforces Ferguson's role as a trusted partner for the professional.

這些員工為建築商、設計師和其他行業專業人士帶來深厚的產品專業知識和個人化服務，幫助他們精準、細緻地滿足獨特的專案需求。將住宅建築和改造與住宅數位商務結合在一起，鞏固了弗格森作為專業人士值得信賴的合作夥伴的地位。

We're pleased with the ongoing success of these growth areas and we'll continue investing in them to leverage the unique advantages we can bring to the market that drive outperformance. I'll now pass to Bill, who will discuss the financial results in more detail.

我們對這些成長領域的持續成功感到高興，我們將繼續對其進行投資，以利用我們能為市場帶來的獨特優勢來推動卓越表現。現在我將把話題交給比爾，他將更詳細地討論財務結果。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by covering our fourth quarter financial results in a bit more detail. Net sales of $8.5 billion were 6.9% ahead of last year. Organic revenue increased 5.8%, with an additional 1.1% coming from acquisitions.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。首先，讓我更詳細地介紹一下我們第四季的財務表現。淨銷售額為 85 億美元，比去年增長 6.9%。有機收入成長 5.8%，另外 1.1% 來自收購。

During the quarter, we saw a return to mild inflation with pricing contributing approximately 2%. We saw improvement in finished goods pricing, while commodity-related categories were down low single digits. Gross margin of 31.7% increased 70 basis points over last year, driven by our associates' strong execution and the timing and extent of supplier price increases. We tightly managed operating expenses, benefiting from the streamlining actions we took earlier in the year while we continue to invest in core capabilities for future growth.

本季度，我們看到通膨回升至溫和水平，其中價格因素貢獻率約為 2%。我們看到成品價格有所改善，而大宗商品相關類別的價格則下降了個位數。毛利率為 31.7%，較去年同期增加 70 個基點，這得益於我們員工的強勁執行力以及供應商價格上漲的時間和幅度。我們嚴格管理營運費用，這得益於我們今年稍早採取的精簡措施，同時我們繼續投資核心能力以實現未來成長。

As a result, operating profit of $972 million was up 13.4% on the prior year, delivering an 11.4% operating margin with 60 basis points of expansion over prior year. Diluted earnings per share of $3.48 was 16.8% above last year, driven by operating profit growth and the impact of share repurchases. And our balance sheet remains strong at 1.1 times net debt to EBITDA.

因此，營業利潤達 9.72 億美元，較上年增長 13.4%，營業利益率達 11.4%，較上年擴大 60 個基點。每股攤薄收益為 3.48 美元，比去年同期高出 16.8%，主要得益於營業利潤的成長和股票回購的影響。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。

Moving to our segment results. Net sales in the US grew 7.1% with an organic increase of 6.1% and a 1% contribution from acquisitions. Operating profit of $962 million increased $118 million over the prior year, delivering an operating margin of 11.9%.

轉向我們的分部業績。美國淨銷售額成長 7.1%，其中有機成長 6.1%，收購貢獻 1%。營業利益為 9.62 億美元，比上年增加 1.18 億美元，營業利益率為 11.9%。

In Canada, net sales were 4.8% above last year, with organic growth of 0.3% and a 4.9% contribution from acquisitions partially offset by a 0.4% adverse impact from foreign exchange rates. Residential activity has continued to be softer than nonresidential, where the market has remained more resilient. Operating profit of $24 million in the quarter was $2 million above the prior year.

在加拿大，淨銷售額比去年增長 4.8%，其中有機增長 0.3%，收購貢獻 4.9%，但被外匯匯率 0.4% 的不利影響部分抵消。住宅活動持續疲軟於非住宅市場，而非住宅市場則保持更強的彈性。本季營業利潤為 2,400 萬美元，比上年高出 200 萬美元。

Turning to our full year results. Our associates delivered growth amid a challenging market backdrop. Net sales were 3.8% above last year, with organic growth of 3.2% and an acquisition contribution of 1%, partially offset by a 0.4% adverse impact of one fewer sales day. Pricing for the year was slightly down as a result of deflation in certain commodity-related categories, particularly early in the year. Gross margin of 30.7% was up 20 basis points. Operating profit of $2.8 billion grew 0.6% over the prior year, delivering a 9.2% operating margin and diluted earnings per share of $9.94 was up 2.6% on the prior year.

談到我們的全年業績。我們的員工在充滿挑戰的市場背景下實現了成長。淨銷售額比去年同期增長 3.8%，其中有機增長 3.2%，收購貢獻 1%，但因銷售日減少 1 天而產生的 0.4% 的不利影響部分抵消了這一增長。由於某些商品相關類別的通貨緊縮，尤其是年初，今年的價格略有下降。毛利率為30.7%，上升了20個基點。營業利益為 28 億美元，比上年增長 0.6%，營業利潤率為 9.2%，每股攤薄收益為 9.94 美元，比上年增長 2.6%。

Next, our cash flow performance. EBITDA of approximately $3.1 billion was up $44 million on the prior year. Working capital investments of approximately $300 million and interest and tax of approximately $800 million were generally in line with the prior year. As a result, operating cash flow was $1.9 billion, up $35 million on the prior year. We invested $305 million in CapEx and generated $51 million in proceeds from asset sales, resulting in free cash flow of $1.654 billion, an increase of $132 million over the prior year.

接下來是我們的現金流表現。EBITDA 約 31 億美元，比前一年增加 4,400 萬美元。營運資本投資約 3 億美元，利息及稅金約 8 億美元，與前一年基本持平。因此，營業現金流為 19 億美元，比上年增加 3,500 萬美元。我們在資本支出上投資了 3.05 億美元，並從資產出售中獲得了 5,100 萬美元的收益，從而產生了 16.54 億美元的自由現金流，比前一年增加了 1.32 億美元。

Turning to capital allocation. As previously mentioned, we invested approximately $300 million in working capital and another $300 million in CapEx to drive further above-market organic growth. Our Board declared a $0.83 per share quarterly dividend. This is consistent with the third quarter and represents a 5% increase over the prior year, reflecting our confidence in the business and cash generation. We continue to consolidate our fragmented markets through bolt-on geographic and capability acquisitions.

轉向資本配置。如前所述，我們投資了約 3 億美元的營運資金和 3 億美元的資本支出，以推動進一步高於市場的有機成長。我們的董事會宣布每股 0.83 美元的季度股息。這與第三季一致，比上年增長了 5%，反映了我們對業務和現金創造的信心。我們繼續透過地理和能力的補充收購來鞏固分散的市場。

As Kevin mentioned, we completed four acquisitions during the fourth quarter, including HPS Specialties, a manufacturer's representative of HVAC plumbing and hydronic supplies serving commercial mechanical and industrial engineering professionals in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

正如凱文所提到的，我們在第四季度完成了四次收購，其中包括 HPS Specialties，這是 HVAC 管道和水暖供應製造商代表，為東北部和中大西洋地區的商業機械和工業工程專業人士提供服務。

Ritchie Environmental Solutions, a process equipment manufacturer's representative serving the water and wastewater treatment market in Virginia, manufacturer duct and supply company and HVAC supplies and parts distributor covering the Atlanta and Southeast markets and Water Resources, Inc an exclusive distributor of Neptune Technology Group products and water meters in the Greater Chicago metro area.

Ritchie Environmental Solutions 是一家服務於維吉尼亞州水和廢水處理市場的製程設備製造商代表，也是涵蓋亞特蘭大和東南市場的製造管道和供應公司以及 HVAC 供應和零件分銷商，而 Water Resources, Inc 則是大芝加哥都會區 Neptune Technology Group 產品和水錶的獨家分銷商。

In total, we completed nine acquisitions in the fiscal year. Subsequent to year-end, we purchased more supply, an HVAC distributor based in Chicago that serves HVAC and dual trade professionals. As we look forward, our acquisition pipeline remains healthy.

整體而言，我們在本財年完成了九次收購。年底之後，我們收購了More Supply，這是一家位於芝加哥的HVAC分銷商，為HVAC和雙重貿易專業人士提供服務。展望未來，我們的收購管道依然健康。

And finally, we are committed to returning surplus capital to shareholders when we are below the low end of our target leverage range of one to two times net debt to EBITDA. We returned $948 million to shareholders via share repurchases this year compared to $634 million in the equivalent prior year period. This year, we have reduced our share count by approximately 5 million and still have approximately 1 billion outstanding under the current share repurchase program.

最後，當我們的槓桿率低於目標槓桿範圍的低端（即淨債務與 EBITDA 比率的一到兩倍）時，我們承諾將剩餘資本返還給股東。今年，我們透過股票回購向股東返還了 9.48 億美元，去年同期為 6.34 億美元。今年，我們已將股票數量減少了約 500 萬股，但根據現行股票回購計劃，仍有約 10 億股未償還。

Now let me address the change of fiscal year-end from July 31 to December 31. This move shifts year-end activities from our seasonally busiest time of the year to our slowest, allowing our associates to remain focused on our customers during their peak season. A five-month transition period will span from August 1 through December 31, 2025. During this time, we will release earnings on December 9, covering the three-month period of August 1 through October 31.

現在，讓我來談談財政年度結束日期從 7 月 31 日到 12 月 31 日的變化。這項措施將年終活動從一年中最繁忙的季節轉移到最清閒的季節，使我們的員工能夠在旺季繼續專注於客戶。過渡期為五個月，從 2025 年 8 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日。在此期間，我們將於 12 月 9 日發布收益報告，涵蓋 8 月 1 日至 10 月 31 日的三個月期間。

We plan to announce our five-month transition period results in late February, and our new fiscal year will begin on January 1, 2026. As a result of this change, we are providing guidance for the 2025 calendar year. But before I move to the guidance, we have presented our first half performance on a calendar year basis for background. For the six months ended June 30, sales of $15.6 billion grew 5% over the prior year.

我們計劃在二月底公佈五個月過渡期的結果，新的財政年度將於2026年1月1日開始。由於這項變化，我們將為 2025 日曆年提供指導。但在我開始提供指導之前，我們先按日曆年介紹了我們上半年的業績作為背景。截至 6 月 30 日的六個月內，銷售額達 156 億美元，比上年增長 5%。

Operating profit of $1.5 billion increased 8%, resulting in an operating margin of 9.6% and an improvement of 30 basis points from 9.3% in the prior year. Further historical financial information for calendar quarters with relevant reconciliations can be founded in the appendix at the end of the slide deck.

營業利潤為 15 億美元，成長 8%，營業利益率達 9.6%，比前一年的 9.3% 提高了 30 個基點。幻燈片末尾的附錄中可以找到日曆季度的更多歷史財務資訊和相關對帳。

Now turning to our guidance for the 2025 calendar year where we have provided the relevant comparative results from calendar 2024. We expect mid-single-digit revenue growth in calendar 2025, and we expect an operating margin range of 9.2% to 9.6%, an improvement of between 10 and 50 basis points over the prior year.

現在轉向我們對 2025 日曆年的指導，我們提供了與 2024 日曆年相關的比較結果。我們預計 2025 年的收入將實現中等個位數成長，營業利潤率預計在 9.2% 至 9.6% 之間，比上一年提高 10 至 50 個基點。

Interest expense is expected to be between $180 million to $200 million. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 26% and we estimate CapEx will be between $300 million to $350 million. Despite the market uncertainty, we are leveraging the strength of our supply chain, tailored value-added solutions, innovative digital tools, and the expertise of our associates, enabling us to capitalize on multiyear tailwinds and drive outperformance. Thank you, and I'll now pass you back to Kevin.

利息支出預計在1.8億至2億美元之間。我們的有效稅率預計約為 26%，我們估計資本支出將在 3 億至 3.5 億美元之間。儘管市場存在不確定性，我們仍利用供應鏈的優勢、量身定制的增值解決方案、創新的數位工具以及員工的專業知識，使我們能夠利用多年的順風優勢並實現優異的業績。謝謝，現在我會把麥克風轉交給凱文。

Thank you, Bill. And let me again thank our expert associates who delivered strong results to finish this challenging year by continuing to take care of our customers and execute our strategy. Our ability to offer a scaled, multicustomer group approach on a project is unique and important to our key growth areas, including HVAC expansion, Waterworks diversification, large capital projects and Ferguson Home.

謝謝你，比爾。讓我再次感謝我們的專家同事，他們透過繼續照顧我們的客戶和執行我們的策略，取得了出色的成績，結束了這個充滿挑戰的一年。我們能夠在專案中提供規模化、多客戶群方法，這對於我們的關鍵成長領域（包括暖通空調擴建、水廠多樣化、大型資本專案和弗格森之家）來說是獨一無二的，而且非常重要。

Our performance continues to deliver results from these multiyear investments as we help meet our customers' needs. While we continue to operate in an uncertain environment, we believe our markets remain attractive over the medium term, and we continue to invest in our expert associates and our value-added capabilities to drive growth. We're committed to supporting the project needs of our water and air specialized professional customers by delivering scale locally and providing exceptional customer service.

在我們幫助滿足客戶需求的同時，我們的業績持續反映出這些多年投資的成果。儘管我們繼續在不確定的環境中運營，但我們相信我們的市場在中期內仍然具有吸引力，並且我們將繼續投資於我們的專業合作夥伴和增值能力以推動成長。我們致力於透過在當地提供規模和提供卓越的客戶服務來滿足我們的水和空氣專業客戶的專案需求。

Thank you for your time today. Bill and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator, I'll hand the call back over to you.

感謝您今天抽出時間。比爾和我現在很高興回答你們的問題。接線員，我會把電話轉回給您。

(Operator Instructions). Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

（操作員指令）。巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊（Matthew Bouley）。

So kind of a broad question on growth and the end market outlook here. Obviously, a lot of crosscurrents recently around new residential, HVAC, et cetera, all of that. Meanwhile, you showed this strong nonresidential result and inflation is improving. So really I'm asking, looking ahead, kind of thinking about this mid-single-digit growth for the total calendar year.

這是一個關於成長和最終市場前景的廣泛問題。顯然，最近圍繞著新住宅、暖通空調等出現了許多矛盾。同時，非住宅數據表現強勁，通膨正在改善。所以我實際上是在問，展望未來，思考整個日曆年的中等個位數成長。

Just trying to put all these trends together kind of it would -- I guess, it would be helpful on kind of price and volume quarter-to-date to sort of help us out there. But then really, what are your assumptions going forward on these kind of changing end markets here over these next few months?

只是嘗試將所有這些趨勢放在一起——我想，這將對本季度迄今為止的價格和銷量有所幫助，從而幫助我們擺脫困境。但實際上，您對未來幾個月內這些終端市場的變化有何預期？

Thank you for the question. Maybe I'll take a little bit about the market and then let Bill fill in with a bit of color. If I take a step back, if we look at when we entered fiscal year '25, we came into the year believing that our markets would be down low single digits. We thought that the residential markets would be down low to mid-single digits, and we thought nonres would be roughly flat.

謝謝你的提問。也許我會稍微了解市場，然後讓比爾補充一些內容。如果我退一步來看，當我們進入 25 財年時，我們開始相信我們的市場將會下降個位數。我們認為住宅市場將下降至中個位數，而非住宅市場將大致持平。

And so suffice it to say, we're pretty pleased with Q4 plus 7% and a year-to-date of plus 3.8%. And probably even more pleased that our key growth areas that we wanted to focus on drove that growth, whether it's HVAC expansion, Ferguson Home Waterworks diversification.

因此可以說，我們對第四季成長 7% 和年初至今成長 3.8% 感到非常滿意。也許更令人高興的是，我們想要關注的關鍵成長領域推動了這一成長，無論是暖通空調擴張還是弗格森家庭水廠多樣化。

And then what we were doing with what we believe is a strong value proposition on large capital projects in nonresidential, and that really did drive the growth. If we then take a shift into where we are currently and how we view, call it, the back half of calendar year '25 or this stub period of five month, we can that growth could be a bit softer in half two of calendar year.

然後，我們所做的就是對非住宅大型資本項目提出我們認為強有力的價值主張，這確實推動了成長。如果我們看一下我們目前的狀況以及我們如何看待 25 年下半年或這五個月的短暫時期，我們可以發現 2025 年下半年的成長可能會稍微疲軟一些。

And we really recognize that new residential construction weakness continues. We've seen continuation of softer RMI or repair remodel markets. And then candidly, when we look at some of our larger growth areas like HVAC, we have an affordability issue with a pressured consumer and a movement to more repair versus replace.

我們確實認識到新住宅建設的疲軟態勢仍在持續。我們看到 RMI 或維修改造市場持續疲軟。坦白說，當我們審視一些較大的成長領域（如 HVAC）時，我們面臨消費者承受能力問題，他們面臨壓力，更傾向於維修而不是更換。

Now the nonresidential markets really continue as traditional nonresidential activity isn't going to step up or we don't see that step up happening. But the strength of large capital projects and that being our growth area does play out. But we do recognize that residential new construction in RMI market can be a bit more challenged.

現在非住宅市場確實在繼續發展，因為傳統的非住宅活動不會增加，或者我們看不到這種增加的發生。但大型資本項目的優勢以及我們的成長領域確實發揮了作用。但我們確實意識到，馬紹爾群島共和國市場的新住宅建設可能會面臨更大的挑戰。

Yes. And Matt, maybe just to build on that. If you look at the first half calendar results that we just walked through and that we put in the slide deck, revenue was up about 5% for the first half. I would tell you, July was a strong month, a solid month in line largely with what we saw in Q4.

是的。馬特，也許只是為了在此基礎上再接再厲。如果您看我們剛剛介紹過的、放在投影片中的上半年業績，您會發現上半年的收入成長了約 5%。我想告訴你，七月是一個強勁的月份，與我們在第四季度看到的情況基本一致。

But as we stepped into August, we did see that growth come down a touch. August sales per day were up about 5%. And I say sales per day because we had one fewer sales day which we'll pick back up in September, but it did step down to 5%. And to Kevin's point, as we look into the back half of the year, and we've provided a full year guide of mid-single digits, we would expect the overall growth rate to maybe be a touch softer in the second half, the market dynamics that Kevin outlined are certainly the driving force of that.

但進入八月份，我們確實看到成長略有下降。八月份日均銷售額成長了約5%。我之所以說是每日銷售量，是因為我們的銷售日數減少了一天，9 月份的銷售量會回升，但確實下降到了 5%。正如凱文所說，當我們展望下半年時，我們提供了中等個位數的全年指導，我們預計下半年的整體成長率可能會略有下降，凱文概述的市場動態無疑是推動這一趨勢的動力。

And then if you just look at our comparable, our volume comparables do step up as we go through Q1 and into our old fiscal Q2, which would be November, December. So we feel good about the guide that we've provided. We think we will continue to have good growth in the second half, but probably a touch softer than half one.

然後，如果你只看我們的可比較數據，隨著我們經歷第一季並進入舊財政第二季（即 11 月、12 月），我們的銷量可比數據確實會上升。因此，我們對所提供的指南感到滿意。我們認為下半年我們將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭，但可能比上半年略微疲軟。

Okay. Yes. That's all super helpful, exactly what I was looking for, given these, again, clearly dynamic end markets here. So that leads to the second question. Kevin, you really touched on it, the large capital projects. It just seems like all your efforts are coming to fruition here.

好的。是的。這些都非常有幫助，正是我所尋找的，因為這裡再次出現了明顯活躍的終端市場。這就引出了第二個問題。凱文，你確實觸及了大型資本項目。看起來你所有的努力都在這裡取得了成果。

So around this kind of multi-customer group approach, you mentioned Waterworks, commercial PBF, fire protection, et cetera, with these large projects. Can you go into maybe just some more specifics, number one, just around how do you go to market with these customers, with the different types of contractors around actually leveraging your multi-customer group approach and kind of how that actually all comes together?

因此，圍繞著這種多客戶群方法，您提到了水廠、商業 PBF、消防等大型專案。您能否更詳細地介紹一下，第一，您如何與這些客戶一起進入市場，如何與不同類型的承包商一起實際利用您的多客戶群方法，以及如何將所有這些結合在一起？

And then just more specifically, anything around kind of data center and what the pipeline going forward of these large capital projects looks like for you guys?

然後更具體地說，有關資料中心的任何資訊以及這些大型資本項目的進展對你們來說是什麼樣子的？

Thank you, Matt. And we really did build the organization to be better together than a part and a multi-customer group approach, and it plays quite well in large capital construction projects, which, as we've discussed, are really driving the day in nonresidential activity. We go to market being best-in-class for the individual contractor or trade professional for that particular customer group, whether it be commercial mechanical, waterwork, fire protection, industrial pipe valve and fitting, making sure that we're the best provider on that job for the contractor.

謝謝你，馬特。我們確實建立了一個比單獨行動和多客戶群方法更好的組織，它在大型基本建設項目中發揮了相當好的作用，正如我們所討論的，這些項目真正推動了非住宅活動的開展。我們致力於為特定客戶群的個人承包商或專業貿易者提供一流的服務，無論是商業機械、水利工程、消防、工業管道閥門和配件，確保我們是承包商在該工作中最好的供應商。

But we then elevate and go towards the source of funds, if you will, the engineer, the architect owner to try and make sure that we are engaged from a supply chain perspective, from a design perspective to make sure that, that project can get completed on time and on budget. And so that work up funnel, closer to the source of funds, allows us to be a best solution for the individual trade on the job, and it served us well.

但隨後我們會提升並轉向資金來源，如果你願意的話，工程師、建築師業主會嘗試確保我們從供應鏈的角度、從設計的角度參與其中，以確保該項目能夠按時按預算完成。因此，工作漏斗更接近資金來源，使我們能夠為工作中的個人交易提供最佳解決方案，並且它為我們提供了良好的服務。

And as we look at Waterworks being up 15% in the quarter, commercial mechanical being up 21% and our industrial business and our fire protection business being up 5%, it's paving the way for future growth. You asked a bit about what we see in the end markets. And just like the rest of the world, we're seeing that activity from a data center construction perspective, continuing to accelerate.

我們看到本季水務業務成長了 15%，商業機械業務成長了 21%，工業業務和消防業務成長了 5%，這為未來的成長鋪平了道路。您詢問了我們在終端市場看到的情況。和世界其他地方一樣，從資料中心建置的角度來看，我們看到這項活動持續加速。

We haven't seen pauses or cancellations and that activity is stepping up and stepping up in a variety of geographies across the nation. Those are great projects for us. They're great projects for us on piping systems as well as valve and automation, fabrication and virtual design, which are some of the other value-added services that we're bringing to the market that help us to earn that business from the local contractor as well as the trust of the owner and the engineer.

我們沒有看到暫停或取消的情況，而且全國各地的活動都在不斷加強。對我們來說這些都是很棒的項目。對我們來說，這些都是關於管道系統、閥門和自動化、製造和虛擬設計方面的偉大項目，這些是我們向市場提供的一些其他增值服務，有助於我們贏得當地承包商的業務以及業主和工程師的信任。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Phil Ng，傑富瑞集團。

Congratulations on a really impressive quarter in a tough environment. Kevin, I just want to drill down a little bit more on the nonres piece. It sounds like the data center side of things remain really strong, but we appreciate comps to get a little tougher in the coming quarters. But just give us a little perspective, what are you seeing on the momentum side of things?

恭喜您在艱難的環境中取得了令人印象深刻的季度業績。凱文，我只是想更深入地探討非資源部分。聽起來資料中心方面的情況仍然非常強勁，但我們預計未來幾季的業績將變得更加強勁。但請給我們一點視角，您對事物的動力有何看法？

You talked about bidding activity still being strong. Just give us a little more color on where you're seeing the strength, the bidding activity within non-res? And how far are you bidding out in just the backlogs in general?

您談到競標活動仍然很活躍。請向我們詳細介紹一下您所看到的非房地產領域競標活動的強勢之處？整體而言，你們在積壓訂單方面的競標進展如何？

And the backlogs are tough to really get after. And the reason that I say that is our backlogs are building and they're quite healthy across commercial mechanical, across fire protection, across waterworks, and across industrial pipe valve and fitting, so more broad-based. The tougher part is as we've discussed in the past, the gestation period of these projects, they do vary.

而積壓的工作確實很難處理。我之所以這麼說，是因為我們的積壓訂單正在增加，而且在商業機械、消防、水廠、工業管道閥門和配件等領域的積壓訂單相當健康，因此基礎更為廣泛。更困難的部分是，正如我們過去討論過的，這些項目的孕育期確實有所不同。

And so for us, it really is around what that operational agility is, if you will, of making sure that we have the supply chain tightened up right, so that the piping system and the valve project are done in a timely fashion because these are incredibly large projects relative to historical standards and so making sure that you've got that in the right place at the right time is challenging.

因此，對我們來說，這實際上就是營運敏捷性，如果你願意的話，確保我們正確地收緊供應鏈，以便及時完成管道系統和閥門項目，因為相對於歷史標準，這些都是非常大的項目，因此確保在正確的時間將其放置在正確的位置是一項挑戰。

But those backlogs are building, but not just in the data center activity. We're seeing it in biotechnology and pharma. We're seeing it in some large-scale hospital work as well. And then we're starting to see that play out in the water wastewater treatment plant side of our business, which again plays well to our waterworks business but also plays well to industrial pipe valve and fitting because those two customer groups worked very well together on the construction of water and wastewater treatment plants, and you saw that play out in our results.

但這些積壓訂單正在增加，而且不僅僅是在資料中心活動中。我們在生物技術和製藥領域看到了這一點。我們在一些大型醫院工作中也看到了這一點。然後，我們開始看到這種情況在我們業務的水廢水處理廠方面發揮作用，這對我們的水廠業務來說再次發揮了良好的作用，而且對工業管道閥門和配件也發揮了良好的作用，因為這兩個客戶群在水和廢水處理廠的建設上合作得很好，你可以在我們的結果中看到這種情況。

We also saw that play out in what our M&A strategy is as we look to get again closer to the design and specification side of the world and broaden our offering on process equipment, solutions, pump packages, valve offerings, and overall controls inside the water and wastewater treatment plant. So we're building out that capability very much in sequential line with our strategy.

我們也看到了我們的併購策略的體現，我們希望再次接近世界的設計和規範方面，並擴大我們在製程設備、解決方案、泵浦組、閥門產品以及水和廢水處理廠內的整體控制方面的產品。因此，我們正在按照我們的策略順序來建構這種能力。

Okay, great color, Kevin. And then from a price and margin standpoint, both really impressive pricing inflected, nicely in this quarter. Bill, I guess question for you, should we expect pricing to kind of build from here, or this is a kind of good run rate? I know the commodity side of things were still negative. Are you starting to see that stabilize and essentially we got an avenue for that to infect.

好的，顏色很棒，凱文。然後從價格和利潤率的角度來看，本季的定價都出現了令人印象深刻的變化。比爾，我想問你一個問題，我們是否應該預期價格會從這裡開始上漲，或者這是一個好的運行率？我知道商品方面的情況仍然不利。您是否開始看到這種情況趨於穩定，並且從本質上來說，我們找到了感染的途徑。

And then on the gross margin side, strong, nice expansion there. Was there any timing nuances with like inventory profit gain? So should we see some moderation or we can build off these gross margins, assuming obviously normal seasonality.

然後在毛利率方面，出現了強勁、良好的擴張。庫存利潤成長是否存在時間上的細微差別？因此，我們是否應該看到一些緩和，或者我們可以建立這些毛利率，假設明顯的季節性正常。

Yeah, first, just to start on price and margin, we were pleased to see price inflect positive as we've talked about over the last couple of quarters, we came into this year expecting our suppliers and the industry to return to call it low single digit inflation and passing through annualized price increases. We saw that step up a bit with initial announcements of tariffs. We then saw that pull back a bit when the reciprocal was pulled back and paused.

是的，首先，從價格和利潤率開始，我們很高興看到價格出現積極變化，正如我們在過去幾個季度中談到的那樣，我們今年預計我們的供應商和行業將恢復到低個位數通膨並經歷年度價格上漲。隨著關稅的初步公佈，我們看到這一幅度上升。然後，當倒數被拉回並暫停時，我們看到拉回了一點。

So we've seen a lot of noise in the system. But overall, we've seen price move back into that low single digit rate. It's difficult to predict how that plays forward, but I would expect and we are expecting some modest level of overall inflation as we play through the calendar year. On the commodity side, as you mentioned, as we noted, the commodity basket as a whole is still in low single digit decline. We have seen movements in the different product categories.

因此，我們看到系統中存在著許多噪音。但總體而言，我們已經看到價格回落至低個位數水準。很難預測未來情況會如何發展，但我預計，而且我們也預計，隨著時間推移，整體通膨水平將處於適度水平。在商品方面，正如您所提到的，正如我們所注意到的，整個商品籃子仍然處於低個位數下降趨勢。我們已經看到不同產品類別的變動。

Clearly copper tube and copper fittings are in, I would call it healthy levels of inflation. We have seen with steel tariffs came through, we have seen steel pipe, carbon steel, and stainless steel move back towards flattish, maybe up a little bit. And then there's still pressure on PVC both on the plumbing side of the world and waterworks, which is still in deflation.

顯然，銅管和銅配件已經進入市場，我稱之為健康的通貨膨脹水準。我們看到，隨著鋼鐵關稅的出台，鋼管、碳鋼和不銹鋼的價格已經下降到平穩狀態，甚至可能略有上漲。而且，世界各地的管線和供水系統對 PVC 仍然有壓力，仍處於通貨緊縮狀態。

So as a basket, those are still in modest deflation, and it's difficult to predict how that plays forward. But if I take a step back from that again, our best view is that probably some modest level of inflation as we round out the calendar year. On gross margins, we were really pleased with the 31.7% gross margin delivery in the quarter.

因此，作為一個籃子貨幣，這些貨幣仍然處於適度通貨緊縮狀態，很難預測未來走勢。但如果我再次退一步來看，我們最好的看法是，隨著日曆年的結束，通貨膨脹可能會達到一定程度。就毛利率而言，我們對本季 31.7% 的毛利率感到非常滿意。

We did see the benefits of the actions that we took earlier in the fiscal year. We talked a lot as we came out of Q2 and into Q3 that we had focused our sales teams. We had made some pricing, tweaks, and we had made some adjustments to ensure that we are properly charging for the value that we provide in the market every day and we saw that start to play through as we exited Q3 exited Q2 in Q3, and then certainly through Q4.

我們確實看到了本財年早些時候採取的行動所帶來的好處。當我們走出第二季並進入第三季時，我們多次談到我們要專注於銷售團隊。我們對定價進行了一些調整，以確保我們每天在市場上提供的價值能夠得到合理的定價，我們看到，當我們退出第三季度時，這一價格開始發揮作用，然後肯定會在第四季度發揮作用。

But there's no doubt. We saw some temporary benefit in the quarter based on the timing and the extent of supplier price increases. So when we take a step back, we've been, I think, pretty consistent with our view that this, the overall underlying ongoing normalized gross margin of this business is somewhere in that 30% to 31% range. And we would expect that we would settle back down into that range as we move into the future.

但毫無疑問。根據供應商價格上漲的時間和幅度，我們在本季看到了一些暫時的好處。因此，當我們退一步考慮時，我認為我們的觀點是相當一致的，即該業務的整體潛在持續標準化毛利率在 30% 到 31% 的範圍內。我們預計，隨著未來的發展，我們將重新回到這個範圍內。

And in fact, if you look at, we talked about August revenue, but if you look at August gross margins, we started to see that normalization play through. So we're very confident with the underlying gross margins of the business and the teams are doing a great job executing every day for our customers.

事實上，如果你看一下，我們談論的是八月的收入，但如果你看一下八月的毛利率，我們就會開始看到正常化。因此，我們對業務的基本毛利率非常有信心，而且團隊每天都在為我們的客戶出色地完成工作。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

And you may have answered this partly with Phil's question, but sort of back of the envelope at the midpoint, it seems like the implied calendar year second half operating margin is expected at about 9.2 percentage-ish versus 9.6% in the first half, and that comes despite what looks to be about a 1% improvement in sales half-over-half. So what's sort of driving that expected margin decline? Is it the timing of the pricing that you just mentioned? Or is there other factors as well?

您可能已經部分回答了菲爾的問題，但從中間點來看，預計下半年隱含的營業利潤率約為 9.2%，而上半年為 9.6%，儘管銷售額上半年似乎增長了 1%。那麼，是什麼原因導致了預期利潤率的下降呢？就是您剛才提到的定價時機嗎？或是有其他因素嗎？

Yes, it's a great question, John. And I think we'll -- as we get more used to calendar quarters, we'll get more used to the seasonality of the business. But I would point mostly to that seasonality. If you go back to last calendar year in the second half, we delivered about an 8.8% operating margin. And your back of the cocktail mapping math is spot on in terms of the guide for the full year at 9.2% to 9.6% implies that the second half will be somewhere in the upper 8% to, call it, mid 9% range in the back half of the year.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，約翰。我認為，隨著我們越來越習慣日曆季度，我們也會越來越習慣業務的季節性。但我主要想指出的是季節性。如果回顧去年下半年，我們的營業利潤率約為 8.8%。而根據全年指引，雞尾酒映射數學計算結果非常準確，即 9.2% 至 9.6% 意味著下半年增長率將處於 8% 上段至 9% 中段的某個範圍內。

So we are expecting continued improvement year over year. And I'd point a bit more towards seasonality that the second half of the calendar year will be typically a touch lighter given November and December with the holidays from a seasonality perspective.

因此，我們期待逐年持續改善。我想更多地指出的是，從季節性的角度來看，由於 11 月和 12 月是假期，因此下半年的生意通常會比較清淡。

Okay. That's helpful. And then last quarter, I think you guys talked about $100 million of expected annual savings from restructuring actions and there wasn't expecting much impact in the fourth quarter -- fiscal year fourth quarter. So how should we sort of think about the cadence of those savings as we move forward here?

好的。這很有幫助。上個季度，我想你們談到了重組行動預計每年可節省 1 億美元，但預計第四季度（即財年第四季）不會產生太大影響。那麼，在我們繼續前進的過程中，我們該如何考慮這些儲蓄的節奏呢？

Yes. We are pleased with the execution of those streamlining actions and the cost savings are playing through in the underlying cost base of the business. But maybe more importantly, the speed and agility of decision-making has improved in the field. And that was really the primary reason for some of the organizational design changes that we made, moving those decisions closer to the customer.

是的。我們對這些精簡措施的執行感到滿意，成本節省正在業務的基礎成本中發揮作用。但也許更重要的是，該領域的決策速度和敏捷性都提高了。這確實是我們進行一些組織設計變革的主要原因，讓這些決策更貼近客戶。

We did quote about $100 million of annualized cost benefits. We did see that play through in the fourth quarter. And I would expect that, call it, roughly $25 million year over year to play through over the next three quarters. If you look at the fourth quarter and just take a step back, our cost as a percentage of sales were roughly 20.3%, which is roughly flat to last year.

我們確實報出了約 1 億美元的年度成本效益。我們確實在第四節看到了這一表現。我預計，未來三個季度，這一數字將比去年增加約 2,500 萬美元。如果你回顧一下第四季度，你會發現我們的成本佔銷售額的百分比約為 20.3%，與去年基本持平。

So we got good underlying cost reductions from the streamlining actions. We had a bit of cost increase driven by sales volume and a touch of cost inflation. And then certainly, every one of our associates has a variable component of their pay that's linked to performance. And given the strong financial performance in the second half, our associates were appropriately awarded for that performance.

因此，我們透過精簡行動實現了良好的基礎成本削減。由於銷售量和成本通膨，我們的成本略有增加。當然，我們每位員工的薪酬都有與績效掛鉤的浮動部分。鑑於下半年強勁的財務表現，我們的員工理應獲得相應的獎勵。

So we very much believe that the cost base is positioned well as we look to the second half and would expect a bit of operating leverage, assuming that the sales environment plays out like we expect.

因此，我們非常相信，展望下半年，成本基礎處於良好狀態，並且假設銷售環境如我們預期的那樣發展，我們預計會有一點經營槓桿。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼西，貝爾德。

Kevin, Bill. First question, Bill, you gave some nice detail on commodities pricing. I was wondering if you could just give us an idea by segment sort of high end versus low end of the pricing spectrum by segment, just so we understand how that sort of lays across your reporting segments. And then you mentioned the kind of the reversion of the gross margin to that 30%, 31%.

凱文、比爾。第一個問題，比爾，你給了一些商品定價的細節。我想知道您是否可以按細分市場為我們提供一下定價範圍的高端和低端情況，以便我們了解這些情況在您的報告細分市場中是如何分佈的。然後您提到了毛利率恢復到 30%、31% 的情況。

And I guess that kind of implies 100 basis points maybe of incremental benefit in the period because of some of the inventory gains that would be temporary. Is that in the range? And then is there anything left over as we look to the October quarter, should we expect some residual benefit as well there? Or are we pretty much worked through now?

我猜這意味著在此期間可能會有 100 個基點的增量收益，因為一些庫存收益是暫時的。在範圍內嗎？那麼，當我們展望 10 月季度時，是否還有剩餘，我們是否應該期待那裡也有一些剩餘收益？或者說我們現在已經基本完成工作了？

Yes. I'll start with the commodities and pricing. And if I go back to my comments earlier, having seen a bit more inflation in copper and then steel returning towards flat to up a little bit. You should expect that our nonres business has a bit more inflation in it right now than our residential business.

是的。我將從商品和定價開始。如果我回顧我之前的評論，就會發現銅價和鋼價的通膨率都略有上升，然後又回落至持平或略有上漲。您應該預料到，目前我們的非住宅業務的通膨率會比住宅業務高一些。

It does vary by customer group, and we generally don't provide a lot of detail by customer group. But I would consider that Waterworks is slightly down on price, largely driven by PVC and with the majority of our customer groups, slightly up from an overall inflation standpoint and maybe again, a touch more inflation on the commercial mechanical side of the world, given copper, and steel.

它確實因客戶群體而異，我們通常不會提供按客戶群體劃分的大量詳細資訊。但我認為，水務公司的價格略有下降，主要是受 PVC 的影響，對於我們的大多數客戶群而言，從整體通膨角度來看價格略有上升，而且考慮到銅和鋼的價格，全球商業機械方面的通膨可能再次略有上升。

In terms of the gross margin, we do expect again to land somewhere in that normalized range of 30% to 31%. If I look at last year in the second half of the calendar year, we were right about the mid-30% range, 30.4%, I believe. So we would expect there to be some relative performance to last year. But we would expect, again, the temporary benefit that we've seen over the last quarter, quarter and a half driven by the timing and extent of supplier price increases to start to wane as we go through the back half.

就毛利率而言，我們確實預計會再次達到 30% 至 31% 的正常範圍。如果我看一下去年下半年的情況，我認為我們的成長率大約在 30% 左右，即 30.4%。因此我們預計今年的表現將與去年相比有所改善。但我們預計，上個季度、一個半季度中，由供應商價格上漲的時間和幅度所推動的暫時性好處，將隨著下半年的到來而開始減弱。

Okay. And then specifically on HVAC, you didn't mention that as it relates to pricing. But maybe if you could help us understand the benefit from pricing and acquisitions in HVAC segment that added to the number we saw. And any comments you have regarding the refrigerant transition? Like do you have any R40 systems left at the end of July? And then multifamily is a hot topic lately. Any other commentary around HVAC would be helpful.

好的。然後具體到 HVAC，您沒有提到它與定價的關係。但也許您能幫助我們了解 HVAC 領域的定價和收購帶來的好處，從而增加我們看到的數字。您對冷媒轉換有什麼看法？例如，七月底你們還剩下 R40 系統嗎？多戶住宅是最近的熱門話題。有關 HVAC 的任何其他評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. HVAC overall, on equipment, we are going through the transition, as you noted, from 410A to ATL. And so clearly, ATL systems have a higher price point, but we are clearly working through that transition as we went through the back half of the calendar year. So there was a bit of inflation on overall equipment, but we're also seeing a lot of repair replace and so not nearly as much inflation on parts and supplies. I would consider HVAC. You should think about it as very low single-digit overall inflation in the overall business, again, a bit more on equipment, a bit less on supplies and parts.

是的。總體而言，就 HVAC 設備而言，正如您所說，我們正在經歷從 410A 到 ATL 的過渡。顯然，ATL 系統的價格較高，但隨著我們進入下半年，我們顯然正在努力完成這項轉變。因此，整體設備存在一些通貨膨脹，但我們也看到大量的維修更換，因此零件和供應品的通貨膨脹並不那麼嚴重。我會考慮 HVAC。您應該將其視為整個業務中非常低的個位數整體通膨，同樣，設備上的通膨略高一些，而供應品和零件上的通膨略低一些。

And when you look at the overall market and what our business was, Dave, we were pleased with being, call it, down one in Q4 on a plus 9% prior year comparator. And if you look at the business overall, we continue to get after counter conversions to address the dual trade contractor and be the source of supply for them. We've done about 600 of them. We'll continue with, call it, 50-plus more as we go into early 2026.

戴夫，當你看看整個市場和我們的業務時，我們很高興看到第四季度的銷售額下降了 1%，而去年同期的銷售額增長了 9%。如果你從整體上看業務，我們會繼續進行櫃檯轉換，以解決雙重貿易承包商的問題並成為他們的供應來源。我們已經完成了大約 600 個。到 2026 年初，我們將繼續推出 50 多個產品。

You've seen us expand our geographic footprint and we will continue to open up new stores that are dedicated to serving that dual trade HVAC and plumbing contractor, and then you've seen it play out in the M&A side. There's clearly a move towards more repair versus replace in today's world. We have sold through the majority of our 410A, and that was in place as we went through the fourth quarter, which is why, as Bill indicated, low single digit is probably the inflation number you should be thinking about.

您已經看到我們擴大了地理覆蓋範圍，我們將繼續開設新店，專門為雙重貿易暖通空調和管道承包商提供服務，然後您已經看到它在併購方面發揮作用。當今世界顯然更傾向於修復而非更換。我們已經售出了大部分 410A 產品，並且在我們進入第四季度時就已經售出了，這就是為什麼正如比爾指出的那樣，低個位數可能是您應該考慮的通膨數字。

But that will clearly move as repair moves a bit more to repair moves to replace and as we start to see that H2L play into the system as the system of choice. But you've also got the balance between ductless and unitary systems buying through as well.

但隨著修復動作逐漸被修復動作取代，我們開始看到 H2L 作為首選系統進入系統，這種情況顯然會改變。但您也需要在無管系統和單一系統之間取得平衡。

Generally speaking, we're very pleased with the strategy. We're very pleased with the execution, and we'll continue to have that as a major source of growth for us on the residential side of our house as we go forward.

總的來說，我們對這個策略非常滿意。我們對執行情況非常滿意，我們將繼續將其作為我們住宅方面未來成長的主要來源。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

So you called out a little earlier some softness in resi remodel. And I just wanted to unpack that a bit more because you've got a really strong presence in remodel with higher income consumers. And that's historically insulated you from some of the category slowness. So are you starting to see demand crack from that higher income consumer? And then can you just give us a sense as to where remodel backlog sit today versus, say, one to two quarters ago?

所以你剛才提到了住宅改造中的一些軟化措施。我只是想進一步解釋這一點，因為你們在高收入消費者的改造方面有著非常強大的影響力。從歷史上看，這可以讓你免受某些類別緩慢的影響。那麼，您是否開始看到高收入消費者的需求下降了？然後您能否告訴我們，與一到兩個季度前相比，今天的改造積壓情況如何？

In the remodel market is continued pressure. We're seeing continued pressure there. We've said that the higher end of the market will continue to perform better than the rest. We're pleased with a plus 3% growth rate in Ferguson Home, especially as we brought those two channels together. And if you look at our showroom business in particular, it is predominantly that remodel space today, and it's primarily that remodel project work for the higher end of the market. We've seen traffic continue to be healthy and so we'll look at that continuing to be the driver.

改造市場持續面臨壓力。我們看到那裡的壓力持續存在。我們說過，高端市場的表現將繼續優於其他市場。我們對 Ferguson Home 3% 的成長率感到滿意，尤其是當我們將這兩個管道整合在一起時。如果你特別看一下我們的展廳業務，你會發現今天它主要是改造空間，而且主要是針對高端市場的改造項目。我們看到交通狀況持續良好，因此我們將繼續關注交通狀況是否能繼續發揮推動作用。

On the lower end of the market, we saw that pressure play through in residential trade and along with new construction pressure and PVC price deflation that puts that business under a little bit more pressure in a down 2% position. But generally speaking, we're pleased with that higher end of the market with Ferguson Home.

在低端市場，我們看到住宅貿易中存在壓力，再加上新建築壓力和 PVC 價格通貨緊縮，導致該業務承受的壓力更大，跌幅達到 2%。但總體而言，我們對 Ferguson Home 的高端市場感到滿意。

That helps. And then just switching gears and drilling down a little bit more on Waterworks, I mean really strong results here, especially in the context of some peer REITs. Can you just talk to more specifically what you're hearing from your large homebuilder customers? It sounds like there was a pullback that accelerated in August in demand for, let's call it, new residential subdivision projects. But I just want to confirm that.

這有幫助。然後，只需轉換主題，對 Waterworks 進行更深入的探討，我的意思是，這裡的結果確實非常強勁，特別是在一些同行房地產投資信託基金的背景下。您能否更具體地談談您從大型房屋建築商客戶那裡聽到了什麼？聽起來，八月對新住宅分區計畫的需求出現了加速回落的跡象。但我只是想確認這一點。

And then can you just give us a rough sense as to where your resi Waterworks business sits from a geographic standpoint? Do you under-indexed, for instance, in markets like, say, Florida? Just love some additional context there.

然後您能否從地理位置的角度大致告訴我們您的水務公司所在地在哪裡？例如，在佛羅裡達州等市場，您的指數是否偏低？只是喜歡那裡的一些附加背景。

Yes. I'll start with we don't under index in Florida. But if I take a step back and look at our business, clearly, we're really pleased with a plus 15% in the quarter, we're really pleased with a plus 20% on a two-year stack inside that Waterworks business. It's a testament to what the group has built over time. and that diverse business mix that they have, residential, commercial, public works, municipal spend, water wastewater treatment plant, storm water management, geosynthetics and even moving closer to that engineering environment, as I referenced earlier, with pumps, valve packages, process equipment and controls. And so that continues to play well for us.

是的。首先，我們不會低估佛羅裡達州的指數。但如果我退一步看看我們的業務，顯然，我們對本季 15% 的成長感到非常滿意，我們對 Waterworks 業務兩年來 20% 的成長感到非常滿意。這證明了該集團長期以來所取得的成就。他們擁有多元化的業務組合，包括住宅、商業、公共工程、市政支出、污水處理廠、雨水管理、土工合成材料，甚至更接近工程環境，正如我之前提到的，包括泵浦、閥門組、工藝設備和控制裝置。因此，這對我們來說仍然很有利。

Perhaps the biggest impact that we've seen though is in that large capital project, nonresidential space as the water piece of that business is quite impactful. And then the multi-customer group approach on non-resis playing out. If I then shift to your residential portion of the question, we have a pretty broad-based business residentially across the US. We're very -- we have strength in the Southeast. We have strength in the South, but it's pretty broad-based.

也許我們看到的最大影響是在大型資本項目、非住宅空間中，因為該業務的水部分影響很大。然後，多客戶群方法將以非抵抗的方式發揮作用。如果我轉到您問題的住宅部分，我們在美國各地的住宅領域擁有相當廣泛的業務。我們非常——我們在東南部有實力。我們在南方有實力，但實力基礎相當廣泛。

If you look at what we're seeing, I'll take aside conversations with the large builder. We've clearly seen pressure on that new residential construction space as has the rest of the country. If you look at our bidding activity, we have not seen a significant fall off in residential bidding activity. But that said, we have no idea how that work will be released. Will it be released at all? And what does that look like in terms of sections or phases and how that plays out? But we do anticipate that in the near term, we'll see some continued pressure on that new residential waterworks insulation space.

如果你看看我們所看到的情況，我會把與大型建築商的對話放在一邊。我們清楚地看到，與全國其他地區一樣，新住宅建設空間也面臨壓力。如果你看一下我們的競標活動，我們並沒有看到住宅競標活動明顯下降。但話雖如此，我們不知道該作品將如何發布。它會被發布嗎？那麼從各個部分或階段來看，它是什麼樣的，又是如何展開的呢？但我們確實預計，在短期內，我們將看到新的住宅供水廠隔熱領域持續面臨壓力。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

I wanted to follow up on the new residential construction market. So you mentioned that trends have weakened. Can you just give us a little bit more color? We've heard the Sunbelt in particular, has weakened recently and then lot development feels like that slowed quite a bit. So curious if you're seeing that. And then for the guide, are you assuming that it gets worse from sort of August to December for new resi?

我想跟進新的住宅建築市場。所以你提到趨勢已經減弱。您能給我們多講一點嗎？我們聽說陽光地帶最近尤其變得虛弱，很多開發似乎也放緩了不少。我很好奇你是否看到了這一點。那麼，作為指南，您是否假設從 8 月到 12 月，新住宅的情況會變得更糟？

Yes. Maybe, Ryan, I'll start with the guide. Again, we don't see anything falling off of a cliff. From where we sit today, we think that new resi will be a bit weaker as we move through the back half of the calendar year. And therefore, we think that our growth overall for the second half of the calendar year could be a bit below the first half. First half was clearly at 5%. So I'd read that to be sub-5%.

是的。也許，瑞安，我會從指南開始。再一次，我們沒有看到任何東西從懸崖上掉下來。從目前的情況來看，我們認為，隨著我們進入下半年，新住宅市場將會稍微疲軟。因此，我們認為今年下半年的整體成長可能會略低於上半年。上半年明顯是5%。所以我認為這個數字應該低於 5%。

But again, don't see that falling off dramatically. To Kevin's point, we're still seeing decent activity out there. And if I go back to kind of how we saw the residential markets playing through our fiscal year, we've been pretty consistent and kind of seen a bit more softening as we've come through, but expected those markets to be down low to mid-single digits. We now expect them to be down maybe a touch more in the second half of the year.

但同樣，不會出現大幅下降的情況。正如凱文所說，我們仍然看到那裡有不錯的活動。如果回顧我們整個財政年度住宅市場的表現，我們一直保持著相當穩定的狀態，並且在經歷一段時間後有所放緩，但預計這些市場將下降到低至中等個位數。我們現在預計，今年下半年它們的銷售量可能會進一步下降。

But Ryan, it's precisely why we are pleased with the balanced business mix that we have inside the organization and the growth areas that we've got with HVAC, Waterworks diversification, large capital and then that higher end of the remodel market of residential with Ferguson Home.

但瑞安，這正是我們對組織內部均衡的業務組合以及暖通空調、水廠多樣化、大資本以及弗格森家居的高端住宅改造市場等成長領域感到滿意的原因。

Got it. Okay. And then my second question, just back to the non-resi market, up 15%, so a really good number. But when I look at the details, industrial is up 5%. So could you comment on why that particular market might be a little bit slower than the others? You mentioned the onshoring theme, which is very real. Just curious if you expect the industrial market to stay softer than commercial and civil.

知道了。好的。然後我的第二個問題，回到非住宅市場，上漲了 15%，這是一個非常好的數字。但當我查看細節時，工業增長了 5%。那麼，您能否評論一下為什麼該特定市場可能比其他市場慢一點？您提到了在岸化主題，這是非常現實的。我只是好奇您是否預計工業市場將比商業和民用市場更加疲軟。

I'll give you a bit of color and then Bill can fill in. If you look at that plus 5% number. That's inclusive of our fire protection business, our industrial business and our facility supply business together. If I think about the fire business and the industrial business, they still were working through periods of commodity deflation.

我會給你一點顏色，然後比爾可以填滿。如果你看一下這個數字加上 5%。其中包括我們的消防業務、工業業務和設施供應業務。如果我考慮一下消防業務和工業業務，他們仍然在經歷商品通貨緊縮時期。

And as Bill indicated, we haven't seen a massive ramp-up in steel pipe pricing across those markets. But we were very pleased with what those businesses have done in market share and especially in our industrial business and what they've done to work together with our water business and our commercial mechanical business on the valve packages and the valve actuation and automation pieces of large capital projects. We're pleased with that, and I wouldn't read too much into the plus 5% against the plus 21% of the commercial.

正如比爾指出的那樣，我們還沒有看到這些市場的鋼管價格大幅上漲。但我們對這些業務在市場份額方面取得的成績感到非常滿意，特別是在我們的工業業務方面，以及他們與我們的水務業務和商業機械業務在閥門包以及大型資本項目的閥門驅動和自動化部分方面進行的合作。我們對此感到滿意，我不會對廣告中增加 5% 和增加 21% 之間的差異進行過度解讀。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Just to go back on HVAC for a minute. I wanted to dive a little bit deeper. Obviously, a lot of concern from some of the OEMs and invoicing some much sharper declines in the near term. So a similar question as you just answered on Waterworks. But when you think about what the guide embeds for the balance of the year, the OEMs seem to suggest that the near term is going to be quite pressured on HVAC volumes, but then potentially even better price mix than what you've articulated. Just give us a little more detail on how your guide embeds kind of that HVAC growth in the second half.

只需稍微回顧一下 HVAC。我想深入一點。顯然，一些原始設備製造商非常擔心短期內發票金額將大幅下降。因此，這個問題與您剛剛在 Waterworks 上回答的問題類似。但是，當您考慮指南中關於今年剩餘時間的內容時，原始設備製造商似乎表明，短期內 HVAC 銷售將面臨大量壓力，但隨後價格組合可能會比您所說的更好。請向我們詳細介紹一下您的指南如何在下半年實現 HVAC 成長。

Mike, thank you for the question. If you look at the HVAC business, as we looked at the fourth quarter, as Bill indicated, we would see low single-digit price embedded. We clearly believe that, that will increase on the equipment side as 410A moves over to A2L. We also had that mix move from replace to repair, which had muted what that overall inflationary impact is. But if I also look at a down one number in the quarter, it really was the tale of, call it, two geographies, if you will, inside of our company.

麥克，謝謝你的提問。如果你看一下 HVAC 業務，正如我們觀察第四季度時所指出的，我們會看到嵌入的低個位數價格。我們堅信，隨著 410A 轉向 A2L，設備方面的比例將會增加。我們還將組合從更換轉變為修復，這減輕了整體通膨的影響。但如果我也看一下本季下降的數字，那麼這其實是我們公司內部兩個地區的故事。

Very strong performance on the East Coast, the Mid-Atlantic up through the Northeast and the Midwest with some challenging weather environments and sell-through inside the Western United States and it really was bifurcated.

東海岸、中大西洋地區、東北部和中西部地區的表現非常強勁，儘管天氣環境有些挑戰性，但美國西部的銷售情況確實出現了分化。

We know there's going to be pressure on new res construction. We know there's going to be pressure on affordability with the consumer as we go through the next several months. But we are pleased with what has been happening from a volume perspective, especially as we've got a lot to go after in the market and continue to expand. As I indicated, we're going to expand our counters. We're going to expand our locations, and we're going to continue to focus on that from an M&A perspective. So the market is going to be a bit challenging, but we're bullish on what that looks like over the medium term.

我們知道新住宅建設將面臨壓力。我們知道，在接下來的幾個月裡，消費者的負擔能力將面臨壓力。但從銷售角度來看，我們對目前的情況感到滿意，特別是因為我們在市場上有很多目標，而且還在繼續擴張。正如我所指出的，我們將擴大我們的櫃檯。我們將擴大我們的業務範圍，並將繼續從併購的角度關注這一點。因此市場將會面臨一些挑戰，但我們對中期前景持樂觀態度。

And Mike, that's effectively embedded in the guide, again, being -- not to be too repetitive, but the second half being down a bit from the first half would play through. And our expectation is that, that's driven by that new resi weakness and a bit of HVAC softness. And we've seen that in August. HVAC was down a touch in August, still low single digits.

麥克，這實際上已經嵌入到指南中了，再次強調，不要重複太多，但下半部比上半部略有下降。我們的預期是，這是由新的阻力疲軟和暖通空調略微疲軟所驅動的。我們在八月就看到了這一點。八月份暖通空調 (HVAC) 略有下降，仍為個位數低點。

So again, I don't see that falling off a cliff from our revenue perspective. But we're coming up against some pretty tough comparables in HVAC, start to lap some double-digit comparables. So probably some softness in the near term on HVAC, all embedded in the guide with a touch softer revenue in the second half.

所以，從我們的收入角度來看，我並不認為會大幅下降。但我們在 HVAC 領域遇到了一些相當棘手的可比性問題，開始超越一些兩位數的可比性。因此，短期內 HVAC 市場可能會出現一些疲軟，所有這些都包含在指南中，下半年的收入可能會略有下降。

Okay. That's helpful. And then shifting gears just on the balance sheet and capital allocation. You've done a good job deploying a decent amount of capital. That said, your balance sheet is still being pretty conservatively managed around the low end of your target range.

好的。這很有幫助。然後僅在資產負債表和資本配置上進行轉變。您在部署大量資本方面做得很好。也就是說，您的資產負債表仍然在目標範圍的低端附近進行相當保守的管理。

There's obviously a lot of differing views on where we are in the cycle right now. But from your standpoint, what would it take for you to deploy capital even more aggressively towards the midpoint or upper end of your leverage range? And is that more likely as you sit here today and look at your M&A pipeline? Is that more likely to come through increased focus on M&A or a step-up in buybacks?

顯然，對於我們目前所處的周期階段，存在著許多不同的看法。但是從您的角度來看，您需要做些什麼才能更積極地將資本部署到槓桿範圍的中點或上限呢？當您今天坐在這裡查看您的併購管道時，這種可能性是否更大？這是否更有可能透過更關注併購或增加回購來實現？

Yes. I'll start with -- we try to be very consistent, and I think we've delivered consistency when it comes to capital allocation. We like having a strong balance sheet. It gives us that optionality to scale up and to go after growth investments. And so we intend to operate towards the low end of that leverage range of one to two times net debt to EBITDA on an ongoing basis. In terms of scaling up, you would see us scale up where there were really good organic growth opportunities or maybe more so in the near term, where there would be more M&A opportunities.

是的。首先，我們努力保持一致，我認為在資本配置方面我們已經實現了一致性。我們喜歡擁有強勁的資產負債表。它為我們提供了擴大規模和追求成長投資的選擇。因此，我們打算持續將淨債務與 EBITDA 之比控制在 1 至 2 倍的槓桿範圍的低端。在擴大規模方面，你會看到我們在有真正良好的有機成長機會的地方擴大規模，或者在短期內，在有更多併購機會的地方擴大規模。

There's nothing large in the pipeline right now, but we have that balance sheet flexibility to take advantage of those opportunities should they occur.

目前還沒有什麼大的項目，但我們擁有資產負債表彈性，可以在機會出現時抓住它們。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Just following up on the last question on M&A. I think you indicated there's nothing large in the pipeline, but I wonder if you could talk more -- maybe more generally about what the pipeline looks like as we get closer to the end of the year. I guess, specifically, valuations, seller expectations, whether you're seeing any increased competition for assets in water and air, maybe from new parties? Just is there anything that's kind of changed about the landscape in the model?

只是跟進關於併購的最後一個問題。我認為您表示目前沒有什麼大的項目，但我想知道您是否可以多談談——也許更籠統地談談隨著年底臨近，項目管道的情況如何。我想，具體來說，估值、賣方預期，您是否看到水和空中資產的競爭加劇，也許來自新的參與者？模型中的景觀有變化嗎？

Yes, Anthony, no real significant changes in the landscape. I mean it's been a pretty competitive environment in water and air for a number of quarters and years, quite honestly. But valuations still probably towards the upper end of our typical, call it, 7 to 7 to 10 enterprise value to EBITDA range. We have a good actionable pipeline. As I mentioned, yet nothing really large in that pipeline.

是的，安東尼，景觀沒有發生真正重大的變化。我的意思是，坦白說，在過去的幾個季度和幾年裡，水上和空中的競爭環境一直相當激烈。但估值仍接近我們典型的上限，即企業價值與 EBITDA 比率為 7 至 7 至 10 的範圍。我們有一個良好的可操作管道。正如我所提到的，該管道中並沒有真正大型的東西。

But quite frankly, that's what the industry is. The industry lends itself to 10,000-plus small- to medium-sized competitors that are out there. And our focus has been on consolidating those markets over time. So our strategy is very consistent. Our pipeline is pretty healthy. And we think we have a good opportunity to continue to consolidate the industry.

但坦白說，這個行業就是這樣的。該行業擁有超過 10,000 家中小型競爭對手。我們的重點一直是逐步鞏固這些市場。所以我們的策略是非常一致的。我們的管道非常健康。我們認為我們有一個很好的機會繼續鞏固這個行業。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just following up on maybe some of the earlier questions on margin. You said you expect some level of inflation over the next few quarters. Does that anticipate any specific tariff-related price increases or are we pretty much kind of level set on tariffs essentially sort of being in prices right now?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後只是跟進一些關於保證金的早期問題。您說您預計未來幾季會出現一定程度的通貨膨脹。這是否預示著任何與關稅相關的具體價格上漲，或者我們現在對關稅的定價基本上處於某種水平？

Yes, Anthony, as Bill said earlier, we expected earlier in this year to get annual price increases, that's happened. We thought we would see some additional increases based on a variety of factors, that's happened. And it was offset by continued commodity deflation principally in PVC. And so at 2% inflation in the quarter, that's modest overall inflation.

是的，安東尼，正如比爾之前所說，我們預計今年早些時候會出現年度價格上漲，事實也確實如此。我們認為，基於多種因素，我們會看到一些額外的成長，事實也確實如此。而這一增長被以聚氯乙烯為主的大宗商品持續通貨緊縮所抵消。因此，本季通膨率為 2%，整體通膨率處於溫和水準。

We expect that to continue. But it's a pretty uncertain environment. As Bill indicated earlier, manufacturers reacted quickly to the reciprocals, then pulled back in large part and been slower to address those changes and taking a more wait-and-see approach. The good part for us as a business is that the cost of product pales in comparison to the cost of labor, and we wake up every day, making sure that we're driving construction productivity for that water and air specialized pro.

我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。但這是一個相當不確定的環境。正如比爾之前指出的那樣，製造商對這些互惠政策做出了迅速反應，但隨後在很大程度上退縮了，並且對這些變化的應對速度較慢，採取了更為觀望的態度。對我們這個企業來說，好的一面是產​​品成本與勞動成本相比微不足道，我們每天醒來，確保為水和空氣專業人士提高建築生產力。

And so yes, we expect some degree of modest inflation, but we're going to compete every day in the market and make sure that we leverage scale, that we're sourcing product from 37,000 different suppliers and then we're getting the right price for the right project, and getting it at the right time to get that project done. So it will be modest inflation as we go forward, but still a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace right now.

是的，我們預計會有一定程度的溫和通膨，但我們每天都會在市場上競爭，確保我們利用規模，從 37,000 個不同的供應商採購產品，然後為合適的項目獲得合適的價格，並在合適的時間完成該項目。因此，未來通膨將保持溫和，但目前市場仍存在許多不確定性。

I'll now pass back to Kevin Murphy, CEO, for closing remarks.

現在我將把話題轉回執行長凱文墨菲 (Kevin Murphy)，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for the time today. We appreciate it more than you know. And again, I just want to reiterate, thanks to our associates. We're incredibly pleased and proud of the execution of our strategy in both the quarter and the full year.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天的時間。我們對此的感激之情難以言表。我再次重申，感謝我們的同事。我們對本季和全年策略的執行感到非常高興和自豪。

And although near-term markets remain challenging, particularly on the residential side of our balanced business mix, we're confident in our ability to outperform over time. So please reach out with any further questions, and we look forward to seeing you very soon. Thank you again.

儘管短期市場仍然充滿挑戰，特別是在我們平衡的業務組合中的住宅方面，但我們對自己能夠隨著時間的推移取得優異表現的能力充滿信心。如果您還有其他問題，請聯絡我們，我們期待很快與您見面。再次感謝您。

That concludes the Ferguson fourth quarter and year-end results conference call. I'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

弗格森第四季和年終業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。