Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Lydia and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to Ferguson's fourth-quarter conference call. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Brian Lantz, Ferguson's VP of Investor relations and Communications. You may begin your conference call.

早安，女士們先生們。我叫莉迪亞，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我歡迎您參加弗格森第四季的電話會議。（操作員說明）我現在想將電話轉給弗格森投資者關係和通訊副總裁 Brian Lantz 先生。您可以開始電話會議。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Ferguson's fourth-quarter earnings conference call and webcast. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the earnings announcement we issued this morning. The announcement is available in the investors section of our corporate website and on our SEC filings web page. Recording this call will be made available later today.

大家早安，歡迎來到弗格森第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。希望您有機會查看我們今天早上發布的收益公告。該公告可在我們公司網站的投資者部分和我們的 SEC 備案網頁上查看。今天稍後將提供此通話錄音。

I want to remind everyone that some of our statements today may be forward-looking and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected including the various risks and uncertainties discussed in our Form 10-K available on the SEC's website.

我想提醒大家，我們今天的一些聲明可能具有前瞻性，並受到某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預測結果有重大差異，包括我們在10-K表格中討論的各種風險和不確定性，該風險和不確定性可在美國證券交易委員會的網站上。

Also any forward-looking statements represent the company's expectations only as of today. And we disclaim any obligation to update these statements. In addition on today's call, we will also discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings presentation and announcement on our website for additional information regarding those non GAAP measures including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

此外，任何前瞻性陳述僅代表本公司截至目前為止的預期。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們網站上的收益演示和公告，以了解有關非 GAAP 指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

With me on the call today are Kevin Murphy, our CEO; and Bill Brundage, our CFO. I will now turn the call over to Kevin.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長凱文墨菲 (Kevin Murphy)；和我們的財務長比爾·布倫戴奇。我現在會把電話轉給凱文。

Thank you Brian. Welcome everyone to Ferguson's fourth quarter results conference call. On today's call, I'll cover highlights of both our fourth quarter and our full year performance. Our performance against our markets in fiscal '24 and our track record of growth and improvement over the longer term. I'll then turn the call over to Bill for financials before I come back to expand on how we're deploying our scale locally.

謝謝布萊恩。歡迎大家參加弗格森第四季業績電話會議。在今天的電話會議上，我將介紹我們第四季和全年業績的亮點。我們在 24 財年的市場表現以及長期成長和改進的記錄。然後，我會將電話轉給比爾詢問財務狀況，然後再回來詳細介紹我們如何在本地部署規模。

We then have time to take your questions at the end. Starting with the fourth quarter, once again, our expert associates executed well, going above and beyond to take care of the complex project needs of our specialist professional customers.

最後我們有時間回答您的問題。從第四季度開始，我們的專家團隊再次表現出色，超越了我們專業客戶的複雜專案需求。

We delivered sales of $7.9 billion, an increase of 1.4% despite deflation of approximately 2%. Gross margins were resilient and costs were managed well. We delivered adjusted operating profit of $857 million, an increase of 5.3% over prior year, and resulting in an adjusted operating margin of 10.8%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 7.6% to $2.98. We are pleased with these results and are confident that our balanced business mix and ability to deploy scale locally position us well going forward.

儘管通貨緊縮約 2%，但我們的銷售額仍達 79 億美元，成長 1.4%。毛利率具有彈性，成本管理得宜。我們實現調整後營業利潤 8.57 億美元，比上年增長 5.3%，調整後營業利益率為 10.8%。調整後稀釋每股收益成長 7.6% 至 2.98 美元。我們對這些結果感到滿意，並相信我們平衡的業務組合和在本地部署規模的能力使我們能夠順利前進。

Turning to our full year performance, our team delivered resilient results in line with our expectations. While faced with challenging markets and deflation. Revenue of $29.6 billion was broadly flat to last year. Our teams delivered gross margins of 30.5% improving 10 basis points over the prior year. We proactively managed our operating expenses delivering adjusted operating profit of $2.8 billion representing a 9.5% adjusted operating margin.

談到我們的全年業績，我們的團隊交付了符合我們預期的富有彈性的業績。同時面臨充滿挑戰的市場和通貨緊縮。營收為 296 億美元，與去年基本持平。我們的團隊實現了 30.5% 的毛利率，比前一年提高了 10 個基點。我們積極管理營運支出，調整後營運利潤達到 28 億美元，調整後營運利潤率為 9.5%。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $9.69, a 1.5% reduction against prior year. Cash generation continued to be strong with $1.9 billion of operating cash flow. This cash delivery enabled us to continue investing in our business and executing against our capital allocation priorities.

調整後攤薄每股收益為 9.69 美元，較上年下降 1.5%。現金產生持續強勁，營運現金流達 19 億美元。這種現金交付使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的業務並根據我們的資本分配優先事項執行。

We returned $1.4 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases during the year, while also welcoming associates from 10 acquisitions, continuing our strategy of consolidating our fragmented markets. And we continued to deliver strong overall return on capital of approximately 31% for the year. Despite market headwinds and deflation, we outperformed our markets, we returned to volume growth, we expanded gross margins, and we delivered solid operating margin performance.

年內，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 14 億美元，同時也透過 10 項收購引入了員工，繼續實施我們鞏固分散市場的策略。今年我們持續實現約 31% 的強勁整體資本回報率。儘管面臨市場逆風通貨緊縮，我們的表現仍優於市場，銷售恢復成長，毛利率擴大，營業利益率表現穩健。

Next, our performance against the broader end markets for the year. Our balanced end market exposure continues to serve us well with about half our business in residential and half in non-residential. We've continued to take share across both end markets. We believe our residential end markets declined by approximately 7% due to a combination of weak new construction and softer repair, maintenance and improvement markets.

接下來是我們今年相對於更廣泛的終端市場的表現。我們平衡的終端市場敞口繼續為我們提供良好的服務，我們的業務大約一半是住宅業務，一半是非住宅業務。我們繼續在兩個終端市場佔據份額。我們認為，由於新建築疲軟以及維修、保養和改善市場疲軟，我們的住宅終端市場下降了約 7%。

We outperformed with organic revenue down 4%. Non-residential markets were slightly more resilient than residential, but were down approximately 4%. We were pleased with the performance of our non-residential customer groups, particularly across large capital projects where our multi-customer group approach is unique in the market. Our non-residential revenue was flat for the year.

我們的有機收入下降了 4%，表現優於大盤。非住宅市場的彈性略強於住宅市場，但下降了約 4%。我們對非住宅客戶群的表現感到滿意，特別是在大型資本項目中，我們的多客戶群方法在市場上是獨一無二的。我們的非住宅收入全年持平。

Taking a step back, over the longer term, our business model has generated consistent above market organic growth, which is the foundation of everything we do. We've complemented that organic growth with a history of growth through acquisitions as we consolidate our fragmented markets through geographic bolt-on and capability deals.

退一步來說，從長遠來看，我們的商業模式已經產生了持續高於市場的有機成長，這是我們所做一切的基礎。我們透過地理補強和能力交易鞏固了分散的市場，並透過收購實現了成長，從而補充了有機成長。

And the implementation of our strategy, combined with disciplined execution, has driven improvement in operating margins over time. If we look at more recent performance, over the past five years, we've grown revenue by nearly 50% and improved our operating margins by 150 basis points. Growing our adjusted operating profit by 78% and our adjusted diluted earnings per share by 92%.

我們策略的實施，加上嚴格的執行，隨著時間的推移，推動了營業利潤率的提高。如果我們看看最近的業績，在過去五年裡，我們的收入成長了近 50%，營業利潤率提高了 150 個基點。調整後營業利潤成長 78%，調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 92%。

We believe we're well positioned to continue this long-term track record of growth and improvement as we look to the future. Now let me hand over to Bill to go through the financials.

我們相信，展望未來，我們有能力繼續保持長期的成長和改善記錄。現在讓我把財務交給比爾。

Thank you, Kevin and good morning, everyone. Let me start with some additional detail on the fourth quarter results. Net sales were 1.4% ahead of last year driven by a 0.2% organic decline and a further 0.1% decline from the adverse impacts of foreign exchange rates, offset by a 1.7% contribution from acquisitions. As expected price deflation continued at approximately 2% resulting in organic volume growth of nearly 2% in the quarter.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。讓我先介紹第四季度業績的一些額外細節。由於有機下降 0.2% 以及匯率不利影響進一步下降 0.1%，淨銷售額比去年增長 1.4%，但被收購貢獻的 1.7% 所抵消。正如預期的價格通貨緊縮繼續保持在約 2%，導致本季有機銷量增長近 2%。

Gross margin was 31% an increase of 40 basis points over last year driven by the value we provide to our customers as well as a decrease to our inventory reserves. We are particularly pleased with this performance as our teams continue to provide services and solutions that add value to our customers projects.

由於我們為客戶提供的價值以及庫存儲備的減少，毛利率為 31%，比去年增加了 40 個基點。我們對此業績感到特別滿意，因為我們的團隊持續提供為客戶專案增值的服務和解決方案。

The cost base has been well managed, enabling us to deliver a 10.8% adjusted operating margin adjusted operating profit of $857 million was up $43 million or 5.3% ahead of prior year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.98 was 7.6% ahead of last year driven by the increase in adjusted operating profit. And the impact of share repurchases and our balance sheet remains strong at 1.1 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

成本基礎管理得當，使我們能夠實現 10.8% 的調整後營業利潤率，調整後營業利潤為 8.57 億美元，比上年增長 4,300 萬美元，即 5.3%。受調整後營業利潤增加的推動，調整後攤薄每股收益為 2.98 美元，比去年同期增長 7.6%。股票回購和我們的資產負債表的影響依然強勁，淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。

Turning to our fourth quarter performance by end markets in the US. Net sales grew by 1.3% residential end markets which comprise approximately half of US revenue remained muted due to softness in both new residential construction and RMI. Overall residential revenue was flat in the fourth quarter. Nonresidential markets were slightly more resilient and we continued to perform well.

轉向我們第四季美國終端市場的表現。由於新住宅建設和 RMI 的疲軟，占美國收入約一半的住宅終端市場淨銷售額增長了 1.3%，但仍保持低迷。第四季住宅整體營收持平。非住宅市場的彈性稍強一些，我們繼續表現良好。

Our revenue grew by 3% in the quarter with growth across commercial, civil infrastructure, and industrial. We've continued to see good levels of non-residential bidding activity on large capital projects. While we expect growth rates to fluctuate over time, our intentional balanced end market exposure positions us well.

隨著商業、民用基礎設施和工業領域的成長，我們的營收在本季成長了 3%。我們繼續看到大型資本項目的非住宅招標活動保持良好水準。雖然我們預計成長率會隨著時間的推移而波動，但我們有意平衡的終端市場曝險使我們處於有利地位。

Moving to our customer groups in the US, residential trade plumbing grew by 1% sequentially consistent with the third quarter with repair and replace outperforming new construction. HVAC grew by 9% as we continue to build on the strengths of our residential trade plumbing in HVAC customer groups in service of the growing dual trade contractor.

轉向我們在美國的客戶群體，住宅管道貿易環比增長 1%，與第三季度一致，維修和更換的表現優於新建建築。隨著我們繼續在 HVAC 客戶群中增強住宅貿易管道的優勢，為不斷增長的雙重貿易承包商提供服務，HVAC 增長了 9%。

Residential building and remodel revenues were flat. Pressure amongst local and regional builders has been somewhat offset by resilience from larger national builders. On remodel, the higher end portion of the market continues to hold up better than the broader remodel market.

住宅建築和改造收入持平。當地和地區建築商的壓力在一定程度上被較大的全國建築商的韌性所抵消。在改造方面，市場的高端部分繼續比更廣泛的改造市場表現得更好。

Residential digital commerce declined by 12% consistent with the third quarter as consumer demand continues to be weak, waterworks revenues were up 5% with strength in public works, municipal and commercial offsetting softness in residential. Our focused diversification efforts continue to drive growth in areas such as geosynthetics and meters and technology.

由於消費者需求持續疲軟，住宅數位商務與第三季一致下降了 12%；公共工程、市政和商業的強勁抵消了住宅的疲軟，自來水廠收入成長了 5%。我們專注的多元化努力持續推動土工合成材料、儀表和技術等領域的成長。

The commercial mechanical customer group grew 6% driven in part by large capital projects such as data centers. Our industrial, fire and fabrication, and facility supply businesses delivered a combined net sales decline of 5%, heavily impacted by commodity steel pipe deflation against a 6% growth comparable. Our breadth of customer groups positions us to maximize the value we bring to the total project while also intentionally maintaining a broad and balanced and market exposure.

商用機械客戶群成長了 6%，部分原因是資料中心等大型資本項目。我們的工業、消防和製造以及設施供應業務的淨銷售額合計下降了 5%，主要受到商品鋼管通貨緊縮的影響，而可比增長率為 6%。我們廣泛的客戶群使我們能夠最大限度地提高為整個專案帶來的價值，同時也有意保持廣泛、平衡的市場曝光度。

Moving to our segment results, net sales in the US grew 1.3% with an organic decline of 0.2% offset by a 1.5% contribution from acquisitions. Adjusted operating profit of $844 million increased 5% over the prior year. Delivering an adjusted operating margin of 11.2%, 40 basis points ahead of last year. In Canada, net sales were 2% ahead of last year with an organic decline of 1.2% and a 2.4% adverse impact from foreign exchange rates offset by a 5.6% contribution from acquisitions.

轉向我們的部門業績，美國的淨銷售額成長 1.3%，有機下降 0.2%，但被收購貢獻的 1.5% 所抵銷。調整後營業利潤為 8.44 億美元，比上年增長 5%。調整後營業利益率為 11.2%，比去年提高 40 個基點。在加拿大，淨銷售額比去年增長 2%，有機下降 1.2%，匯率帶來的 2.4% 不利影響被收購帶來的 5.6% 貢獻所抵消。

Markets have been broadly similar to that of the United States. Adjusted operating profit was $22 million in the quarter flat to last year. Turning to the full year results, net sales were 0.3% below last year with an organic decline of 2.4% and a 0.1% adverse impact from foreign exchange rates. Offsetting this was a 1.8% contribution from acquisitions and a 0.4% uplift from one additional sales day. Deflation was approximately 2% for the year driven by certain commodity categories.

市場與美國市場大致相似。該季度調整後營業利潤為 2,200 萬美元，與去年同期持平。就全年業績而言，淨銷售額比去年下降0.3%，有機下降2.4%，匯率不利影響為0.1%。收購帶來的 1.8% 貢獻和額外銷售日帶來的 0.4% 成長抵消了這一影響。在某些商品類別的推動下，本年度通貨緊縮約為 2%。

Gross margin was 30.5% 10 basis points ahead of prior year as we continue to execute our strategy and provide value added solutions to our customers. During the year, we were proactive in managing both labor and non-labor operating expenses to respond to the prevailing volumetric environment.

由於我們繼續執行我們的策略並為客戶提供增值解決方案，毛利率為 30.5%，比去年同期高出 10 個基點。年內，我們積極管理人工及非人工營運開支，以因應當前的容量環境。

As a result, adjusted operating profit of $2.8 billion with a 9.5% adjusted operating margin was in line with expectations we set out at the beginning of the fiscal year,, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $9.69 slightly down by 1.5% for the year.

因此，調整後營業利潤為 28 億美元，調整後營業利益率為 9.5%，符合我們在財年年初設定的預期，調整後攤薄每股收益為 9.69 美元，年比小幅下降 1.5% 。

We are pleased with this performance given the market headwinds and deflation we experienced during the year. Moving to our cash flow performance, after the normalization of inventory last year which generated outside cash flow, we return to a more typical year of strong cash generation with operating cash flow of $1.9 billion.

考慮到我們在這一年中經歷的市場逆風和通貨緊縮，我們對這一表現感到滿意。轉向我們的現金流表現，在去年庫存正常化並產生外部現金流之後，我們又回到了更典型的現金流強勁的一年，營運現金流為 19 億美元。

Interest and tax came in as we expected and we have continued to invest in organic growth through CapEx, investing $372 million in the year. As a result, free cash flow was $1.5 billion for fiscal year '24. Our balance sheet position is strong with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 1.1 times. We target a net leverage range of 1 times to 2 times and we intend to operate towards the low end of that range through cycle to ensure we have the capacity to take advantage of growth opportunities as well as to maintain a resilient balance sheet.

利息和稅收正如我們預期的那樣到來，我們繼續透過資本支出投資於有機成長，今年投資了 3.72 億美元。結果，24 財年的自由現金流為 15 億美元。我們的資產負債表狀況強勁，淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 1.1 倍。我們的目標是淨槓桿率範圍為 1 倍至 2 倍，並且我們打算在整個週期內朝著該範圍的低端運營，以確保我們有能力利用成長機會並保持有彈性的資產負債表。

We allocate capital across four clear priorities. First, we invested $372 million into CapEx in the business to build on our competitive advantages and drive above market organic growth. We're investing to optimize our supply chain network through a combination of automation efficiency and expansion. And we continue to invest in digital tools and technology as well as our extensive branch network.

我們將資本分配給四個明確的優先事項。首先，我們向該業務的資本支出投資了 3.72 億美元，以增強我們的競爭優勢並推動高於市場的有機成長。我們正在投資透過自動化效率和擴展的結合來優化我們的供應鏈網路。我們繼續投資數位工具和技術以及廣泛的分支機構網路。

Second, we continue to sustainably grow our ordinary dividend. Our Board declared a $0.79 per share quarterly dividend, bringing our full year dividend declared to $3.16 representing a 5% increase over our fiscal '23 declared dividends reflecting our confidence in the business and cash generation.

其次，我們持續持續增加普通股利。我們的董事會宣布每股季度股息 0.79 美元，使我們宣布的全年股息達到 3.16 美元，比我們 23 財年宣布的股息增加 5%，反映了我們對業務和現金生成的信心。

Third, we're consolidating our fragmented markets through bolt-on geographic and capability acquisitions. As Kevin outlined, we are pleased to have welcomed associates from 10 high quality businesses this year. We invested $260 million, bringing in approximately $400 million of incremental annualized revenue.

第三，我們正在透過補強地理和能力收購來鞏固我們分散的市場。正如 Kevin 所概述的，我們很高興今年迎來了來自 10 家優質企業的員工。我們投資了 2.6 億美元，帶來了約 4 億美元的增量年收入。

Our deal pipeline remains healthy and we will continue to execute our consolidation strategy. And finally, we are committed to returning surplus capital to shareholders when we are below the low end of our target leverage range, we returned $634 million to shareholders via share repurchases this year, reducing our share count by approximately 3.3 million.

我們的交易管道保持健康，我們將繼續執行我們的整合策略。最後，我們致力於在低於目標槓桿範圍下限時向股東返還盈餘資本，今年我們透過股票回購向股東返還了 6.34 億美元，使我們的股票數量減少了約 330 萬股。

And when the end of the year with approximately $900 million outstanding under the current share repurchase program. Now let's turn our attention to the sequential revenue performance of the business, which is trending in line with our expectations. We've seen gradual improvement in organic growth trends despite market softness and ongoing deflation. Organic volume returned to growth in Q3 and Q4.

截至今年年底，目前的股票回購計畫仍有約 9 億美元未償還。現在讓我們將注意力轉向該業務的連續收入表現，其趨勢符合我們的預期。儘管市場疲軟和持續通貨緊縮，但我們看到有機成長趨勢逐漸改善。第三季和第四季有機銷量恢復成長。

While two-year comparable will ease as we progress through fiscal '25 we anticipate continued near term market challenges and headwinds from deflation particularly in the early part of the year, which leads me next to our full year guidance.

雖然隨著我們在25 財年的進展，兩年期可比數據將有所緩解，但我們預計近期市場挑戰和通貨緊縮的阻力將持續存在，特別是在今年年初，這使我對全年指引做出了展望。

Given various uncertainties of the market backdrop, there are a broad range of potential outcomes for the year ahead. Taking this into account, we believe revenue will grow in the low single digit range for the year, reflecting an ongoing challenging near term market environment.

鑑於市場背景的各種不確定性，未來一年可能會出現多種結果。考慮到這一點，我們認為今年營收將在低個位數範圍內成長，反映出近期市場環境持續充滿挑戰。

Our assumptions are based on our end markets declining in the low single digit range, inclusive of pricing being down slightly for the year driven by continued commodity deflation, particularly as we enter the year. We assume continued market out performance of approximately 300 to 400 basis points. A tail from already completed acquisitions which we expect to generate approximately $250 million in revenue offset in part by one fewer sales day in the third quarter.

我們的假設是基於我們的終端市場在低個位數範圍內下降，包括由於大宗商品持續通貨緊縮推動的今年價格小幅下降，特別是在進入今年之際。我們假設市場表現持續上漲約 300 至 400 個基點。我們預計已完成的收購將產生約 2.5 億美元的收入，但第三季銷售日減少部分抵銷了這些收購的尾聲。

We have provided a range for adjusted operating margin between 9.0% to 9.5%. We expect interest to remain broadly consistent between $180 million to $200 million. And as previously noted, our adjusted effective tax rate will be approximately 26%, and we expect to invest between $400 million to $450 million in CapEx.

我們提供了 9.0% 至 9.5% 之間的調整後營業利潤率範圍。我們預計利息將大致維持在 1.8 億至 2 億美元之間。如前所述，我們調整後的有效稅率約為 26%，我們預計在資本支出上投資 4 億至 4.5 億美元。

After a year of strong execution, delivering resilient results. We continue to invest in the business to support our ongoing market out performance.

經過一年的強有力執行，取得了富有彈性的成果。我們繼續投資該業務，以支持我們持續的市場表現。

We believe the combination of our strong balance sheet, flexible business model and balance and market exposure positions as well as we move into fiscal '25.

我們相信，憑藉我們強大的資產負債表、靈活的業務模式以及平衡和市場敞口狀況，我們將進入 25 財年。

Thank you and I'll now pass back to Kevin.

謝謝你，我現在將回傳給凱文。

Thanks Bill. I now wanted to take some time to expand on a few key areas that Bill mentioned as he discussed our performance that we believe differentiate us in the market. First, our scale and global supply chain set us apart. Quite simply, we're driving the best breadth and depth of inventory where and when our customers need it.

謝謝比爾。我現在想花一些時間來擴展比爾在討論我們的業績時提到的幾個關鍵領域，我們認為這些領域使我們在市場上脫穎而出。首先，我們的規模和全球供應鏈使我們與眾不同。很簡單，我們在客戶需要的時間和地點提供最佳的庫存廣度和深度。

We aim to connect the entire supply chain from the point of manufacturing to the point of install. We deliver scale locally through our vast network of facilities and our fleet of vehicles for final mile delivery. This extensive network places us within 60 miles of 95% of our customers in North America.

我們的目標是連接從製造點到安裝點的整個供應鏈。我們透過龐大的設施網路和最後一英里交付的車隊在本地提供規模服務。這個廣泛的網路使我們能夠與北美 95% 的客戶相距 60 英里。

Building on this competitive advantage, we are further optimizing our network through a combination of automation, efficiency, and expansion. We continue to invest in our distribution facilities and implementing technology solutions. The combination of our supply chain capabilities and our expert associates allow us to deliver the best local service in the industry.

在此競爭優勢的基礎上，我們透過自動化、效率和擴展的結合進一步優化我們的網路。我們繼續投資我們的分銷設施並實施技術解決方案。我們的供應鏈能力和專家團隊的結合使我們能夠提供業內最好的本地服務。

Next, we continue to focus on the significant dual trade opportunities in plumbing and HVAC. Our ability to bring together market leading capabilities in both plumbing and HVAC provide us with a competitive advantage for serving these professionals and capturing growth from this market for years to come.

接下來，我們繼續關注管道和暖通空調領域的重大雙重貿易機會。我們能夠將管道和暖通空調領域的市場領先能力結合在一起，為我們提供了競爭優勢，可以為這些專業人士提供服務，並在未來幾年抓住該市場的成長。

We estimate that the combined HVAC and residential trade plumbing markets to be approximately $100 billion of which we estimate nearly $30 billion of the market is serviced by more than 65,000 dual trade plumbing and HVAC professionals. And this segment of the market is growing.

我們估計暖通空調和住宅貿易管道市場合計約為 1,000 億美元，其中近 300 億美元的市場由超過 65,000 名雙重貿易管道和暖通空調專業人員提供服務。而且這部分市場正在成長。

We are expanding our HVAC offering to match the density of our plumbing presence, executing this expansion through a combination of dual trade branch conversions, geographic branch expansion and acquisitions. We're further building our capabilities to provide a single point of service to those professionals.

我們正在擴大我們的暖通空調產品範圍，以匹配我們管道設施的密度，透過雙貿易分支機構轉換、地理分支機構擴張和收購相結合來執行這一擴張。我們正在進一步增強我們的能力，為這些專業人員提供單點服務。

While further differentiating our services as we simplify processes, harmonized pricing and coordinate pickups and deliveries. Turning to non-residential markets and our view of the opportunities ahead with large capital projects.

同時，我們簡化流程、統一定價並協調取貨和送貨，從而進一步實現我們的服務差異化。轉向非住宅市場以及我們對大型資本項目未來機會的看法。

Data continues to point towards the structural tailwinds from large construction projects over the next several years, supported by data centers onshoring activity, legislative acts in the aging infrastructure. When we leverage our core strengths, products and services across our customer groups, we add value and have the ability to sell from the ground up solutions focusing on the entire project, not just selling products.

數據繼續表明，在資料中心外包活動和老化基礎設施立法法案的支持下，未來幾年大型建設項目將帶來結構性推動力。當我們在客戶群中利用我們的核心優勢、產品和服務時，我們就能增加價值，並有能力從頭開始銷售專注於整個專案的解決方案，而不僅僅是銷售產品。

We estimate our total addressable market for these projects to be in the region of $50 billion through fiscal 2030. In the short term, this type of activity has helped to offset traditional non-residential weakness as we continue to see solid bidding activity which gives us confidence in this multi-year structural tailwind.

我們估計，到 2030 財年，這些項目的潛在市場總額將達到 500 億美元。短期內，此類活動有助於抵消傳統非住宅領域的疲軟，因為我們繼續看到強勁的招標活動，這讓我們對這款多年結構性順風車充滿信心。

We believe our scale and multi-customer group approach strongly positions us to capture meaningful growth from these significant and complex projects over the medium term. To close, let me again thank our associates for their dedication to serving our specialist professional customers. We are pleased with our team's execution in the quarter and for the year as a whole.

我們相信，我們的規模和多客戶集團方法使我們能夠在中期內從這些重要而複雜的專案中獲得有意義的成長。最後，讓我再次感謝我們的員工致力於為我們的專業客戶提供服務。我們對我們團隊在本季和全年的執行情況感到滿意。

Despite market headwinds and deflation during the year, we continued to consolidate our markets, we returned to volume growth, we expanded gross margins, and we delivered solid operating margin performance. Our fiscal 2025 guidance reflects modest full-year growth in an ongoing challenging near-term market environment.

儘管這一年面臨市場逆風和通貨緊縮，我們繼續鞏固市場，恢復銷售成長，擴大毛利率，並實現了穩健的營業利潤率表現。我們的 2025 財年指引反映了在持續充滿挑戰的近期市場環境下全年的溫和成長。

Our cash generative model allows us to continue to invest for organic growth, consolidate our fragmented markets through acquisitions, and return capital to shareholders. We intend to do this while maintaining a strong balance sheet operating at the low end of our target leverage range. We will continue to invest in scale and capabilities to take advantage of multi-year structural tailwinds such as underbuilt US housing, non-residential large capital projects, and our opportunity with the dual trade plumbing and HVAC contractor.

我們的現金產生模式使我們能夠繼續投資以實現有機成長，透過收購鞏固分散的市場，並向股東返還資本。我們打算在實現這一目標的同時，保持在目標槓桿範圍低端運行的強勁資產負債表。我們將繼續投資於規模和能力，以利用多年的結構性順風，例如建設不足的美國住房、非住宅大型資本項目，以及我們與雙重貿易管道和暖通空調承包商的機會。

Thank you for your time today. Bill and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator, I'll hand the call back over to you.

感謝您今天抽出時間。比爾和我現在很樂意回答你的問題。接線員，我會把電話轉回給您。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is just maybe a little bit more color on deflation. I mean, what does deflation look like so far in August and September for finished goods and commodities? And it sounds like the expectation might be for an inflection, a positive inflection at some point in the second half of the year? Can you confirm if that is what you guys are thinking and specifically when that might occur in your view?

早安，夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個可能只是對通貨緊縮有更多的色彩。我的意思是，到目前為止，8 月和 9 月製成品和大宗商品的通貨緊縮情況如何？聽起來好像預期可能會出現拐點，在下半年的某個時候出現積極的拐點？您能否確認你們是否也這麼想，特別是您認為這種情況何時會發生？

Yes. Thanks, John. Good morning, thanks for the question. This is Bill, I'll start with that one. So if you go back to fiscal '24 as we talked about, deflation overall for the year was driven by commodity based products which drove an overall deflation of about 2% for the year. As we exited the year and entered fiscal '25, that was pretty consistent.

是的。謝謝，約翰。早安，謝謝你的提問。這是比爾，我將從他開始。因此，如果你回到我們談到的 24 財年，全年的整體通貨緊縮是由大宗商品產品驅動的，這些產品推動了全年約 2% 的整體通貨緊縮。當我們結束這一年並進入 25 財年時，情況非常一致。

We do expect as we move through the year that as we roll over those comparable deflation numbers from last year in commodities that that could ease somewhat. But as we sit here today, we don't have a crystal ball and calling the price on commodities is pretty difficult.

我們確實預計，隨著今年的進展，當我們將去年大宗商品的可比通貨緊縮數據進行翻滾時，情況可能會有所緩解。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們沒有水晶球，因此預測大宗商品的價格非常困難。

So we do expect deflation, particularly in the first part of the year. We would expect today that to ease somewhat as we move throughout the year, but that's driving the overall pricing slightly down for the full year call that we have included within our guidance.

因此，我們確實預期會出現通貨緊縮，特別是在今年上半年。我們預計今天隨著我們全年的發展，這種情況會有所緩解，但這會推動我們納入指導的全年電話會議的整體定價略有下降。

Understood. Okay. And then, in the quarter what was the gross margin benefit from the decrease in inventory reserve? And then in terms of your full year outlook for operating margin of 9% to 9.5%, how are you sort of thinking about the upper and lower end of the range and what may drive each of those?

明白了。好的。那麼，本季因庫存儲備減少而帶來的毛利率收益是多少？然後，就您對 9% 至 9.5% 的全年營業利潤率的展望而言，您如何看待該範圍的上限和下限，以及推動這些範圍的因素是什麼？

Yes, sure. So first off, we were very pleased with the overall gross margin performance, both in the fourth quarter, but as well as the fiscal year. 31% gross margin in the fourth quarter had a very strong underlying gross margin performance as our teams continue to deliver value in the marketplace and provide great service to our customers.

是的，當然。首先，我們對第四季和本財年的整體毛利率表現非常滿意。第四季 31% 的毛利率具有非常強勁的基礎毛利率表現，因為我們的團隊繼續在市場上創造價值並為客戶提供優質的服務。

We did have on $4 billion of inventory as we drew up our normal inventory reserve process, we had a little bit of a pickup there at the end of the year that had a bit of an outsized impact on the quarter. As I take a step back, I would think about both the gross margin and the operating margin in Q4 as pretty flat to prior year, absent those inventory reserve adjustments.

當我們制定正常的庫存儲備流程時，我們確實擁有 40 億美元的庫存，年底我們的庫存有所回升，這對本季產生了一些巨大的影響。退一步來說，如果沒有庫存準備金調整，我認為第四季的毛利率和營業利潤率與去年同期相當持平。

And then in terms of the guidance, our guidance from an operating margin perspective of 9% to 9.5% reflects continued modest pressure on operating margins, particularly in the short term as our markets remain challenged and as we step into the year with that continued deflation that I just spoke about. So that's going to put a bit of pressure on SG&A leverage in the short term.

然後就指導而言，我們從9% 至9.5% 的營業利潤率角度進行的指導反映了營業利潤率持續承受的適度壓力，特別是在短期內，因為我們的市場仍然面臨挑戰，而且我們進入了持續通貨緊縮的一年我剛才談到的。因此，這將在短期內給銷售管理、行政費用槓桿帶來一些壓力。

Pretty similar to what we saw this past year in terms of deflation driving some SG&A leverage pressure. In terms of the upside and the downside on that operating margin, certainly from an upside perspective if we get supportive price and price inflation, particularly on finished goods as we go throughout the year and commodity stabilization as we go throughout the year, that could benefit the top line.

與我們去年看到的通貨緊縮推動一些銷售管理、行政管理槓桿壓力的情況非常相似。就營業利潤率的上行和下行而言，當然從上行角度來看，如果我們獲得支持性的價格和價格通脹，特別是全年的製成品和全年的大宗商品穩定，這可能會受益頂線。

Certainly if we get a bit of a faster recovery on [residential construction] and RMI, that could also benefit a bit of the top line, which would flow through and drive a bit of a higher operating margin. And the downside is really that in reverse. If commodity pressure lasts longer, if our markets are slower to recover than we're anticipating overall for the year, we could get some more additional short term pressure in that operating margin.

當然，如果我們在[住宅建設]和RMI方面獲得更快的復甦，這也可能對營收有所裨益，這將推動並推動更高的營業利潤率。缺點確實是相反的。如果大宗商品壓力持續更長的時間，如果我們的市場復甦速度比我們今年的整體預期慢，我們的營業利潤率可能會受到更多的短期壓力。

And John, as we come into this year, clearly we're still battling some near term macroeconomic pressure, still battling some deflation, but we continue to invest in the business because as we look to the medium term, both residentially, non-residentially, both new construction and RMI markets are pretty attractive.

約翰，當我們進入今年時，顯然我們仍在與一些近期宏觀經濟壓力作鬥爭，仍在與一些通貨緊縮作鬥爭，但我們繼續投資於該業務，因為從中期來看，無論是住宅還是非住宅，新建工程和RMI 市場都相當有吸引力。

You look at the underbuilt housing in the US of 3 million to 4 million units. You look at what's happening with the aging housing stock at 40 years. The non-residential investment that we're seeing, and we're taking part in a lot of the key infrastructure projects in the United States, not just infrastructure in the form of water, wastewater, stormwater, but also as we look at the investments in artificial intelligence and what we're seeing with data center, what we're seeing with power generation.

你看看美國有 300 萬到 400 萬套未建成的住房。你看看 40 年老化的房屋存量發生了什麼事。我們看到的非住宅投資，我們正在參與美國的許多關鍵基礎設施項目，不僅僅是水、廢水、雨水形式的基礎設施，而且當我們看到對人工智慧的投資以及我們在數據中心和發電方面看到的情況。

And so we're going to continue to invest because as we look at our markets recovering, we need to accelerate as those markets recover and really walk in with that tailwind.

因此，我們將繼續投資，因為當我們看到市場復甦時，我們需要隨著這些市場的復甦而加速，並真正順勢而行。

Great. Thanks very much guys.

偉大的。非常感謝你們。

Thanks John.

謝謝約翰。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

Morning everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. Maybe I'll kind of follow up there around the kind of growth expectations for next year. You know, from an end market perspective, I think you spoke about some challenges persisting even as the as the two-year stack eases a little bit.

大家早安。感謝您提出問題。也許我會跟進明年的成長預期。你知道，從終端市場的角度來看，我認為你談到了即使兩年堆疊有所緩解，但仍然存在的一些挑戰。

I guess specifically within each end market, what are those kind of building blocks around that low, single digit decline for FY25? And also curious if you can update us on how the year has started from an organic growth perspective quarter to date? Thank you.

我想具體來說，在每個終端市場中，圍繞 2025 財年低個位數下降的建置模組是什麼？我們也想知道您能否從季度至今的有機成長角度向我們介紹今年的最新情況？謝謝。

Yeah, sure, Matt. So from an overall perspective for the full year, we're expecting our markets to be down in the low single digit range. If you split that between resi and non-resi as best we can see it today, we expect resi to be down in the low to mid-single-digit range and non-resi to be roughly flat, maybe slightly down, but roughly flat.

是的，當然，馬特。因此，從全年的整體角度來看，我們預計我們的市場將下跌在較低的個位數範圍內。如果按照我們今天所能看到的最好情況將其分為 Resi 和非 Resi，我們預計 Resi 將下降到中低個位數範圍內，而非 Resi 將大致持平，可能略有下降，但大致持平。

On the resi side, we've seen on the new resi side, which again, for us is, call it, less than 18% of our total business with resi RMI making up the lion share of the rest of the 50% of our business. On the new resi side, we've certainly seen starts and permits weakening over the last five or six months. We've started to see some of that bleed through in our revenue.

在 Resi 方面，我們已經看到了新的 Resi 方面，對我們來說，這又是我們總業務的不到 18%，而 Resi RMI 佔據了我們剩餘 50% 業務的最大份額。在新的原油方面，我們確實看到了過去五、六個月的開工和許可的減弱。我們已經開始看到其中一些在我們的收入中流失。

Certainly the majority of our revenue trails starts and permits a little bit as we get further into the start. So we think there's going to be some pressure on that new resi side as we step throughout the year until we get a bit of easing and hopefully some turnaround towards the second part of the year.

當然，隨著我們進一步開始，我們的大部分收入軌跡都會開始並允許一點。因此，我們認為，隨著我們全年採取行動，新的儲備方將面臨一些壓力，直到我們得到一些放鬆，並希望在今年下半年出現一些轉變。

And on the RMI side, certainly the consumer continues to be pressured. As we said in our prepared remarks, we're really pleased with our residential building and remodel business, which has performed relatively flat to the prior year in a challenging market. The high enforcement of that market continues to hold up better, but we've seen some continued softness. So, again, until we get back to some additional existing home turnover, the RMI markets are likely to be a bit challenged, particularly through the first half of our fiscal year.

在 RMI 方面，消費者無疑地繼續面臨壓力。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們對我們的住宅建築和改建業務感到非常滿意，在充滿挑戰的市場中，該業務的表現與前一年相比相對持平。該市場的高執行力持續保持較好的狀態，但我們也看到了一些持續的疲軟。因此，在我們恢復到一些額外的現房成交量之前，馬紹爾群島市場可能會面臨一些挑戰，特別是在我們財年的上半年。

On the non-resi side, our expectation of, call it, flattish for the year, we've seen and we've delivered really good results when it comes to those large capital projects that Kevin was outlining and talking about. And you see that reflective in our commercial mechanical business performance this past quarter.

在非儲備方面，我們對今年的預期持平，我們已經看到，當談到凱文概述和談論的那些大型資本項目時，我們已經取得了非常好的結果。您可以在我們上個季度的商用機械業務業績中看到這一點。

But certainly the underlying non-resi side of the business, just look at indicators like the ABI continue to be pressured and weak. So we think there'll be a little bit of pressure there as we step throughout the year. In terms of how the year started. Look, August has been pretty similar to Q4, a bit soft with organic growth still slightly down.

但可以肯定的是，該業務的潛在非黃金方面，只需看看 ABI 等指標繼續受到壓力和疲軟。因此，我們認為全年的發展都會面臨一些壓力。就這一年的開始而言。看，八月份與第四季非常相似，有點疲軟，有機成長仍然略有下降。

And as mentioned on John's question earlier, we're still working through some of that deflation. So no real change as we stepped into the fiscal year, a bit of pressure, which we would expect in the early part of the year.

正如約翰先前的問題所提到的，我們仍在努力解決部分通貨緊縮問題。因此，當我們進入本財年時，沒有真正的變化，有點壓力，這是我們在今年年初預計的。

Yes, Matt, just a bit of caution, as we enter this fiscal year, you talk about new construction on the production side of the world, still good, single family production, but it's pacing itself out. When you look at something like spec homes for the regional or local builder, that's pretty much moved to the side and so that activity has a bit of caution embedded in it.

是的，馬特，請注意一點，當我們進入本財年時，您談論了世界生產方面的新建設，仍然很好，單戶生產，但它正在加快步伐。當你看到像區域或當地建築商的規格住宅這樣的東西時，它幾乎被移到一邊，因此活動有點謹慎。

Even as you look at the repair replace side of the world, we've talked about the HVAC business and what that means is it looks to replace moving to more repair. And so you see in our HVAC business we have parts and supply growth that is outpacing unitary equipment growth and that's pretty standard for where we sit today inside the environment.

即使您看看世界的維修更換方面，我們也討論了暖通空調業務，這意味著它希望更換並轉向更多的維修。因此，您可以看到，在我們的暖通空調業務中，我們的零件和供應成長速度超過了單一設備的成長速度，這對於我們今天所處的環境而言是相當標準的。

And then on the non-resi side, as Bill indicated, we're seeing good large capital project work, but that's offsetting a bit of the slowdown as we look at big box distribution warehouse, hospitality, and some more traditional non-resi work.

然後在非剩餘方面，正如比爾指出的那樣，我們看到了良好的大型資本項目工作，但這抵消了一些放緩，因為我們看到了大型配送倉庫、酒店和一些更傳統的非剩餘工作。

Got it. Okay. Thank you for that, Kevin and Bill. It's very helpful. So I guess just kind of picking up on some of that, the views around '25. You know, as you mentioned, I mean, there's clearly a lot of cross currents, right? It sounds like you're speaking to a lot of the kind of current data being relatively soft around starts and permits and ABI, as you mentioned at the same time that now it seems like interest rates are moving lower.

知道了。好的。謝謝你們，凱文和比爾。這非常有幫助。所以我想我只是了解了其中一些，25 年左右的觀點。你知道，正如你所提到的，我的意思是，顯然存在著許多分歧，對嗎？聽起來您所說的許多當前數據在開工、許可和 ABI 方面都相對疲軟，正如您同時提到的，現在利率似乎正在走低。

So I just wanted to confirm number one that, your guidance is basically assuming sort of current market conditions that you're not really assuming much improvement related to lower interest rates, that's number one. And number two, in your experience when you do have lower interest rates, I guess I'd be curious, you know, where do you see it first? How does that tend to play out in your own business? And, you know, what are you kind of hearing from customers? You know, if there is any potential optimism around that? Thank you.

所以我只是想確認第一點，你的指導基本上是假設當前的市場狀況，你並沒有真正假設與較低利率相關的太多改善，這是第一點。第二，根據你的經驗，當利率確實較低時，我想我會很好奇，你知道，你首先在哪裡看到它？這在您自己的企業中會如何發揮作用？而且，您知道，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？你知道，這是否有任何潛在的樂觀情緒？謝謝。

Customers remain cautious, but optimistic. You look at interest rate movements that we're going to see and we would see that play out over time. It would start with our waterworks business as lot preparation happened, and we'll see what happens as you look at different subdivision activity, for example. And what that paces out to in terms of sections and portions and how many lots are being developed at a particular given time.

客戶仍然持謹慎態度，但也持樂觀態度。你看看我們將要看到的利率變動，我們會看到它隨著時間的推移而改變。它將從我們的自來水廠業務開始，因為進行了很多準備工作，例如，當您查看不同的細分活動時，我們將看到會發生什麼。以及在特定時間開發的地塊和部分的進度。

Right now we're seeing pretty steady activity, pretty flat activity in terms of what that bidding looks like in single family subdivision work. On the RMI side of the world, what we would love to see is continued employment, solid data, as well as existing home turnover starting to pick up. Because although employment is the best data point for RMI activity for us, existing home turnover clearly has remodel activity associated with pre and post-sale.

目前，就單戶住宅細分工作的投標情況而言，我們看到相當穩定的活動，相當平淡的活動。在馬紹爾群島一側，我們希望看到持續的就業、可靠的數據以及現房成交量開始回升。因為雖然就業對我們來說是 RMI 活動的最佳數據點，但現有房屋週轉率顯然與售前和售後相關的改造活動有關。

And so if we start to see some interest rate easing and we start to see a pickup in that existing home turnover, we expect to see that inside of our business.

因此，如果我們開始看到利率放鬆，並且我們開始看到現有房屋成交量有所回升，我們預計會在我們的業務內部看到這種情況。

And then again, on the non-res side, just continuing with that work around multi-customer group four, fire and fabrication, industrial pipe valve and fitting, commercial mechanical and waterworks, all working together on data center construction and even quite frankly on the power generation that's needed to take care of the grid to take care of some of the power needs of this data center build out. So we're looking at that as we go through and customers remain cautious but optimistic.

然後，在非資源方面，繼續圍繞多客戶第四組、消防和製造、工業管道閥門和配件、商業機械和自來水廠開展工作，所有這些都在數據中心建設方面共同努力，甚至坦率地說照顧電網所需的發電，以滿足此資料中心擴建的部分電力需求。因此，我們正在考慮這一點，客戶保持謹慎但樂觀的態度。

Great. Thanks Kevin. Good luck guys.

偉大的。謝謝凱文。祝大家好運。

Thanks Matt.

謝謝馬特。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

菲爾·吳，杰弗里斯。

Hey, guys. Congrats on a solid quarter. I guess a question for Bill. If I look at your pricing the last two quarters, it's been down about 2%. And your gross margins, if you kind of strip out the inventory dynamics was kind of flattish, right?

嘿，夥計們。恭喜季度業績穩健。我想問比爾一個問題。如果我看看你們過去兩個季度的定價，下降了約 2%。如果剔除庫存動態的話，你的毛利率是持平的，對吧？

So it kind of feels like your commodity headwind is stabilizing here, but you're calling for margin compression for 2025, is that more on the gross margin side or S&A? And then are you seeing commodity deflation and any pockets accelerate in the first half? Because it sounds like you're a little more cautious on margins to start the first half and perhaps a further price degradation from here.

因此，感覺您的商品逆風正在穩定下來，但您呼籲在 2025 年壓縮利潤率，這更多的是毛利率方面還是 S&A 方面？那麼上半年您是否看到大宗商品通貨緊縮以及資金加速成長？因為聽起來您在上半年開始時對利潤率更加謹慎，並且從現在開始價格可能會進一步下降。

Yes. Thanks, Phil. And to your point, we've been really pleased with the gross margin performance of the business as we've been battling and working through that deflation. And keep in mind, obviously, that deflation is year over year deflation. Where you sometimes see pressure on the gross margin is when you get shorter, faster movements in the short term on deflation where you've got higher cost of goods sold inventory that you have to sell through.

是的。謝謝，菲爾。就您而言，我們對業務的毛利率表現非常滿意，因為我們一直在與通貨緊縮作鬥爭。顯然，請記住，通貨緊縮是逐年通貨緊縮。有時你會看到毛利率面臨壓力，因為通貨緊縮導致短期內的波動更短、更快，你必須出售的庫存商品成本更高。

But we haven't seen that. It's been more steady deflation throughout the past year. We do expect that to continue as we step into the year. And the majority again, of that operating margin moderation that we expect next year is going to be pressure on that SG&A side of the equation.

但我們還沒有看到這一點。過去一年通貨緊縮更加穩定。我們確實預計，隨著今年的到來，這種情況將繼續下去。我們預計明年營業利益率下降的大部分將對銷售、管理及行政費用方面帶來壓力。

In fact, if you look back at fiscal '24, we grew our gross margins by 10 basis points for the year. Our SG&A de-levered roughly 40 basis points, and our operating margins were down 30 basis points. That SG&A deleveraging is really driven by that 2% deflation on the top line. Just take 2% of our revenue for last year. It's worth about $600 million worth of revenue that came off because of that price deflation.

事實上，如果你回顧 24 財年，我們這一年的毛利率增加了 10 個基點。我們的 SG&A 去槓桿化了大約 40 個基點，我們的營業利潤率下降了 30 個基點。SG&A 去槓桿化實際上是由營收 2% 的通貨緊縮所推動的。就拿我們去年收入的 2% 吧。由於價格通貨緊縮而損失的收入約為 6 億美元。

You did the math around that. Your SG&A as percentage of sales would be roughly flat fiscal '24 to fiscal '23. So again, as we step into fiscal '25, we're going to expect a bit more of that SG&A pressure, both from deflation as well as just the fact that our markets are still negative as we step into the year that puts a bit more pressure in the short term. We would expect that pressure to be more difficult in the first part of the year and ease a little bit as we step through the year.

你對此做了數學計算。您的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比在 24 財年到 23 財年大致持平。因此，當我們進入25 財年時，我們預計SG&A 壓力會更大一些，這既來自通貨緊縮，也來自我們的市場在我們進入這一年時仍然處於負值的事實，這會帶來一些壓力。我們預計這種壓力在今年上半年會更加困難，並隨著今年的進展而有所緩解。

And Phil, if you look at the commodity basket, it's worth remembering that, that roughly 15% of our revenue that we would consider commodity-based products would be everything from polyethylene, PVC, cast iron, ductile iron, steel, copper, tube, pipe, and fittings. And they don't all move in the same direction at the same time, they don't all move with the same velocity at the same time.

Phil，如果你看看商品籃子，值得記住的是，我們認為以商品為基礎的產品大約有 15% 的收入將來自聚乙烯、PVC、鑄鐵、球墨鑄鐵、鋼、銅、管材、管道和配件。而且它們不會同時朝同一方向移動，也不會同時以相同的速度移動。

In fact in the copper tubing side of the world we've seen some movement in an upward direction, so they're moving at different places, but generally speaking that commodity based product pressure is what drove the two points that Bill referenced.

事實上，在世界銅管方面，我們已經看到了一些向上的運動，因此它們在不同的地方運動，但一般來說，基於商品的產品壓力是推動比爾提到的兩點的原因。

So we should assume gross margins holding up relatively well. The margin compression is largely s and a driven and more in the first half. Am I hearing you guys? Right?

因此，我們應該假設毛利率保持相對較好。利潤率壓縮很大程度是上半年的驅動因素。我聽到你們的聲音了嗎？正確的？

Yeah, I think, I think that's reasonable. I mean, look out, our gross margins. If you look over the last two years have been relatively consistent and roughly, you know, 30.4% last year, 30.5% this year, you certainly in any given quarter, that gross margin is not going to be a dead man's heartbeat. They're going to be factors that move that up or down.

是的，我認為，我認為這是合理的。我的意思是，留意我們的毛利率。如果你看看過去兩年的毛利率相對穩定，去年為 30.4%，今年為 30.5%，那麼在任何特定季度，毛利率都不會是死人的心跳。它們將成為導致這一數字上升或下降的因素。

But, but broadly, we've been pretty consistent on gross margin. We'd expect a bit more pressure in a low growth environment with our market still slightly negative and deflation on the SG&A leverage side of the world.

但是，總的來說，我們的毛利率相當穩定。我們預計，在低成長環境下，我們的市場仍然略有負面，而且全球 SG&A 槓桿方面出現通貨緊縮，壓力會更大。

Okay. And then pivoting on your non-res business. Obviously, investments and you're pivoting to these mega projects and capital projects has been a good guy. It sounds like you're seeing team momentum there.

好的。然後轉向非資源業務。顯然，投資和你轉向這些大型專案和資本專案是個好人。聽起來你在那裡看到了團隊的動力。

What about your traditional commercial side of things, the light commercial side of things? Kevin, Bill, are you guys seeing any stabilization? Any green sheets? There seems like the head of your side of things with the capital side of things that you're seeing continued momentum there. Some of the companies we covered have called out project delays ahead of the election. Contractors holding back on some of the stuff ahead of rate cuts. It doesn't sound like you're seeing any of that, but any color would be helpful.

你的傳統商業面、輕商業面怎麼樣？凱文、比爾，你們看到穩定了嗎？有綠色床單嗎？似乎你的頭面和資本面的事物都在那裡，你看到了持續的動力。我們報道的一些公司在選舉前表示工程延後。承包商在降息之前保留了一些東西。聽起來您沒有看到任何這些，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

So we are seeing that. If you look at the traditional non-residential portion of the business, the traditional commercial build out, that has been pressured. Probably the biggest impact, if you remember back a year or two ago, we would talk a great deal about building out a big box distribution warehouse to service customers based on e-commerce expansion in every market, every working week.

所以我們正在看到這一點。如果你看看傳統的非住宅業務部分，即傳統的商業建築，你會發現它受到了壓力。如果您還記得一兩年前，這可能是最大的影響，我們會大量談論建立一個大型配送倉庫，以便基於每個市場、每個工作週的電子商務擴張來為客戶提供服務。

That has largely been mitigated, even as you look at some of the more traditional beyond office space into the hospitality area. But the good news about our business is our customers, as well as our customer groups, have been able to pivot to those large capital projects to offset that.

即使您將辦公空間之外的一些更傳統的空間視為酒店區域，這種情況也已在很大程度上得到緩解。但關於我們業務的好消息是，我們的客戶以及我們的客戶群已經能夠轉向這些大型資本項目來抵消這種影響。

To see 6%-plus growth in our commercial mechanical business, 5% growth in our waterworks business, to see our fire business performing as it does even in the face of strong steel pipe deflation has been quite encouraging. As they work together, but at the same time making sure that they're focused on the unique needs of that customer on that large capital work. That's been encouraging to offset traditional non-res.

看到我們的商用機械業務成長 6% 以上，我們的水務業務成長 5% 以上，看到我們的消防業務在鋼管通貨緊縮的情況下仍然表現出色，這令人非常鼓舞。他們一起工作，但同時確保他們專注於客戶在大型資本工作中的獨特需求。這抵消了傳統非資源的影響，令人鼓舞。

Okay, appreciate the call you guys.

好的，感謝你們的來電。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning. Can you talk about progress on own brands or private label in fiscal '24 and maybe what you're you know, targeting in '25 in terms of end markets where that could product categories where that could move the needle and any kind of rough way to think about sort of rule of thumb on the margin benefits?

嗨，早安。您能否談談 24 財年自有品牌或自有品牌的進展，也許您知道，25 財年的目標是終端市場，這可能會推動產品類別的發展，並以任何粗略的方式考慮一下關於邊際效益的經驗法則？

Yeah, thanks for the question. If you look at our own brand. It is just shy of about 10% of our revenue. I would think about own brand in the context of a broader product strategy. As we look to help customers navigate their projects. We want to make sure that we're working with them on what the appropriate product is for the application and guiding them to a product that's going to not only service their project needs but then also be beneficial to our company and our vendor partners as we look to grow our business over the long haul.

是的，謝謝你的提問。如果你看看我們自己的品牌。這僅略低於我們收入的 10% 左右。我會在更廣泛的產品策略的背景下考慮自己的品牌。我們希望幫助客戶駕馭他們的專案。我們希望確保我們正在與他們合作，確定適合該應用程式的產品，並指導他們選擇產品，該產品不僅可以滿足他們的專案需求，而且還可以使我們的公司和我們的供應商合作夥伴受益，因為我們希望長期發展我們的業務。

And so not only do we have own brand growth, but we have growth within our branded partner where we've been able to grow faster than market and be their best path to market. And so I would think about own brand in the broader context. It's important, it's faster growing inside of our residential business today than non-res, but really is across all aspects and all customer groups inside the company.

因此，我們不僅擁有自己的品牌成長，而且我們的品牌合作夥伴也實現了成長，我們能夠比市場成長得更快，並成為他們進入市場的最佳途徑。所以我會在更廣泛的背景下思考自己的品牌。重要的是，今天我們的住宅業務內部的成長速度比非住宅業務成長得更快，但實際上是遍及公司內部的各個方面和所有客戶群。

Okay. That, that's very helpful. And then just -- sorry if I missed this, but on the fiscal '25 guide the tax rate, I think a point above what you did in '24 any driver there or anything you'd call out?

好的。那，這非常有幫助。然後只是 - 抱歉，如果我錯過了這一點，但是在 25 財年的指導稅率上，我認為比您在 24 年所做的要高出一點，有任何司機或您會指出的任何東西嗎？

Yeah, actually, if I go back to where we were kind of in the middle part of this past fiscal year and we were evaluating our corporate structure. We had flagged when we made the decision to move to the US, that we were going to experience an increase in both UK corporate tax rates as well as Swiss corporate tax rates and that our, our effective tax rate was going to go up marginally to about 26%.

是的，實際上，如果我回到上個財年中期的情況，我們正在評估我們的公司結構。當我們決定搬到美國時，我們已經指出，我們將經歷英國公司稅率和瑞士公司稅率的增加，我們的有效稅率將小幅上升至約26%。

When we solidified the move to the US through our merger transaction, now that we're a US domiciled corporation 26% is about what you should expect. Given today's current corporate rate of 21%-plus our state rate of call it, you know, 5.5%. So 26% should be a good rate for this year absent any changes certainly in the in the federal government space on rates.

當我們透過合併交易鞏固向美國的轉移時，既然我們是一家在美國註冊的公司，那麼 26% 就符合您的預期。鑑於目前的企業稅率為 21%，再加上我們的州稅率，即 5.5%。因此，如果聯邦政府的利率領域沒有任何變化，那麼今年 26% 應該是一個不錯的利率。

Got it. Got it. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

知道了。知道了。謝謝。我會把它翻過來。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。

Awesome, thanks so much. Wanted to touch again on pricing here. I appreciate all the commentary on the commodity side of the business. I wanted to talk about the other part of your business, your finished goods pricing. Any sort of notable category call-outs we should be mindful of, any potential outliers either above or below expectations on finished goods. Thanks.

太棒了，非常感謝。想再談談這裡的定價。我很欣賞有關該業務的商品方面的所有評論。我想談談你們業務的其他部分，你們的成品定價。我們應該注意任何值得注意的類別標註，任何高於或低於成品預期的潛在異常值。謝謝。

Yes, sure. If you look at finished goods for us, which again to your point is the lion's share of our revenue, just over 85% are finished goods. Over the past year, fiscal 2024 is broadly flat, maybe slightly up for the fiscal year. That's a little bit below what we see in what I would call a typical year. Normally we have low single digit price inflation on finished goods.

是的，當然。如果你看看我們的成品，這又是我們收入的最大份額，超過 85% 是成品。過去一年，2024 財年基本持平，本財年可能略有上升。這比我們在我所說的典型年份中看到的要低一些。通常我們的製成品價格通膨率較低。

As we flag throughout the last few quarters, we had seen those finished goods price increases being a little bit more spotty than we would traditionally see. And that continued through this calendar year. So as we sit here today, we would expect a bit more normalized price increases for calendar 2025, as typically happened at the beginning of the calendar year.

正如我們在過去幾季中所看到的那樣，我們發現成品價格的上漲比我們傳統上看到的更不穩定。這種情況一直持續到今年。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們預計 2025 年價格會出現更正常化的上漲，就像通常在年初發生的情況一樣。

But again, we don't have a crystal ball on that, and so we'll monitor that closely as we work with our suppliers and understand what their price increase plans are for calendar '25.

但同樣，我們對此沒有水晶球，因此我們將在與供應商合作時密切監控這一點，並了解他們 25 日曆年的漲價計劃。

Yes, as Bill said, it's been broadly flat. And as you look at the different customer groups, product categories, it's been very surgical in terms of where price increases have happened. As you can imagine, labor costs for our manufacturing supplier partners has gone up, but their input costs potentially have gone down as commodities have deflated.

是的，正如比爾所說，它基本上持平。當你觀察不同的客戶群、產品類別時，你會發現價格上漲的地方非常明顯。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們的製造供應商合作夥伴的勞動力成本已經上升，但隨著大宗商品的通貨緊縮，他們的投入成本可能會下降。

And so, they've been very surgical in their approach in different areas as opposed to broad price increases across their different product categories. And we expect much of the same as we go through this calendar or this fiscal year.

因此，他們在不同領域採取了非常嚴格的策略，而不是在不同產品類別中大幅提價。我們預計本日曆或本財年的情況大致相同。

That's helpful and then maybe switching gears, talking SG&A. Just looking at the growth in SG&A on an absolute basis. It looks like it was up maybe a percent during the quarter and that's a bit of an improvement versus last quarter. Maybe just talk through some of those efficiencies that you are generating on the SG&A line and perhaps bucket out SG&A kind of including and excluding acquisitions. Thanks.

這很有幫助，然後可能會換個方向，談論 SG&A。僅以絕對基礎來看 SG&A 的成長。看起來本季可能上漲了一個百分點，與上季相比略有改善。也許只是討論一下您在 SG&A 線上產生的一些效率，也許會列出 SG&A 類型的包括和排除收購。謝謝。

Yeah, I would first say acquisitions put a little bit of pressure, but overall not a large impact from acquisitions given the size of our expense base. To your point, we were pleased with the performance as we came through the fourth quarter, probably a little bit better from an SG&A leverage perspective than maybe what we had anticipated. But I kind of take a step back from that and look at the full year as a whole, again, because we can have some quarterly movements in any given quarter, both on gross margin and on SG&A. And so, when you look at that full year, again, we had a little bit of deleveraging, again, largely driven by that deflationary pressure.

是的，我首先要說的是，收購帶來了一點壓力，但考慮到我們的支出基礎規模，整體而言，收購的影響並不大。就您而言，我們對第四季度的業績感到滿意，從銷售、管理和行政費用槓桿的角度來看，可能比我們預期的要好一些。但我有點後退一步，再次將全年視為一個整體，因為我們可以在任何特定季度出現一些季度變動，無論是毛利率還是銷售管理費用。因此，當你再次審視全年時，我們再次進行了一點去槓桿化，這主要是由通貨緊縮壓力推動的。

And then when you look at our cost base as a whole, we're nearly 60% of our cost base is labor. Labor and our associates are the intellectual capacity and give us the capability to win in the marketplace. They hold all of our relationships. So we're pretty precise when we think about managing labor. The way we've done that this past year is to manage against the volumetric trends that we've seen in the marketplace. And as we talked about, we've seen volume growth return in Q3 and Q4.

當你把我們的成本基礎當作一個整體來看時，你會發現我們將近 60% 的成本基礎是勞動力。勞工和我們的同事是智力的力量，使我們有能力在市場上獲勝。他們掌握著我們所有的關係。因此，當我們考慮勞動力管理時，我們是非常精確的。去年我們所做的就是因應市場上出現的銷售趨勢。正如我們所說，我們看到第三季和第四季銷售恢復成長。

If you look at our headcount, our full-time equivalence, that's been managed pretty closely in line with that. So as we step into the fiscal year, our headcount is up a little bit. We certainly have a little bit of wage inflation that will be on top of that. And that combined with, again, a lower growth environment, particularly in the first part of the year, will put a little bit of short term pressure.

如果你看看我們的員工人數，我們的全職員工數量，你會發現我們的管理與此非常一致。因此，當我們進入本財年時，我們的員工人數有所增加。除此之外，我們肯定還會有一點薪資上漲。再加上較低的成長環境，尤其是今年上半年，將帶來一些短期壓力。

But I go back to what Kevin said in terms of the fact that we are really focused on investing in the business and positioning ourselves for when the markets return to growth.

但我回到凱文所說的事實，我們真正專注於投資業務並為市場恢復成長做好定位。

Yes, to echo what Bill said, we're really pleased with the way the teams have managed the expense base, especially in the field organization in the face of deflation. And if you look at what we're investing in technology and facilities and building out our supply chain capabilities.

是的，正如比爾所說，我們對團隊管理費用基礎的方式感到非常滿意，特別是在面對通貨緊縮的情況下的現場組織。如果你看看我們在技術和設施方面的投資以及建立我們的供應鏈能力。

We're really pleased with the SG&A position that we have. And then as we look forward, investing in, building out our counter locations, especially in the area of dual trade plumbing and HVAC, as we look to expand from a greenfield perspective, what our position looks like in the HVAC business across the United States, to take advantage of the growth in that business.

我們對 SG&A 的職位非常滿意。然後，當我們展望未來時，投資、建造我們的櫃檯地點，特別是在雙重貿易管道和暖通空調領域，當我們希望從綠地的角度進行擴張時，我們在美國暖通空調業務中的地位是什麼樣的，利用該業務的成長。

So we're really looking at preserving that good work that the organization's doing today and then continuing that investment level to take care of those tailwinds for when the markets begin to recover and normalize.

因此，我們確實在考慮保留該組織今天所做的出色工作，然後繼續保持這一投資水平，以在市場開始復甦和正常化時應對這些順風車。

Thanks so much guys. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝你們。我會把它傳遞下去。

Thanks, Sam.

謝謝，山姆。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, I wanted to ask about free cash flow and capital allocation as you contemplate fiscal '25. How should we be thinking about free cash conversion rates, any moving pieces in working cash we should be thinking about? And then from a capital allocation standpoint, obviously continue to produce healthy cash flow, the balance sheets in good shape.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想問一下您在考慮 25 財年時的自由現金流量和資本配置。我們應該如何考慮自由現金兌換率，以及我們應該考慮的工作現金中的任何移動部分？然後從資本配置的角度來看，顯然繼續產生健康的現金流，資產負債表狀況良好。

You've got different outcomes, when we think about macro for this next year, but if we're if we end up kind of skirting through in it in a healthier way, is this the time in the cycle that you look to kind of lean in from an M&A standpoint?

當我們考慮明年的宏觀經濟時，你會得到不同的結果，但如果我們最終以一種更健康的方式繞過它，那麼現在是你希望的周期中的時間嗎？

How would you characterize your pipeline and your willingness and desire to kind of push more M&As through the system in the coming year, just any commentary you can give on how you're thinking about how this shapes up.

您如何描述您的管道以及您在來年透過該系統推動更多併購的意願和願望，您可以就您如何看待這一情況發表任何評論。

Yes, so first off, Mike, from a cash flow perspective, really pleased with the $1.9 billion in operating cash flow. Our CapEx guidance came in in the middle of our range at about $370 million. So that gave us that $1.5 billion in free cash flow. We aim to deliver about 100% of operating cash to net income year in, year out.

是的，首先，從現金流的角度來看，麥克對 19 億美元的營運現金流非常滿意。我們的資本支出指引處於我們範圍的中間，約為 3.7 億美元。這樣我們就獲得了 15 億美元的自由現金流。我們的目標是年復一年將營運現金約 100% 轉化為淨利潤。

We were pretty much right in line with that, maybe slightly above that this past fiscal year. And I would expect that again, as we step through next fiscal year. So we will be in a good cash generative position for fiscal 2025.

我們的情況與這一點基本一致，可能略高於上一財年的情況。當我們進入下一財年時，我會再次期待這一點。因此，我們在 2025 財年將處於良好的現金產生狀態。

Likewise, to your point, our balance sheet is in great shape, and we have worked really hard to maintain that strength of balance sheet. It's core to what we do, and we do that not only to have some resilience in case of a market downturn, but also to your point to be able to take advantage of growth opportunities.

同樣，就您而言，我們的資產負債表狀況良好，並且我們非常努力地維持資產負債表的實力。這是我們工作的核心，我們這樣做不僅是為了在市場低迷的情況下具有一定的彈性，也是為了讓您能夠利用成長機會。

So you will see us be very consistent with our capital allocation priorities, looking at organic growth opportunities, growing that dividend sustainably over time, absolutely looking at great M&A opportunities as we consolidate our markets, and then flexing that buyback depending on where we are at the low end of that leverage range which we sit at right now at 1.1 times. So we have a fair amount of capacity to take advantage of the market, regardless of what the market backdrop is.

因此，你會看到我們與我們的資本配置優先事項非常一致，尋找有機增長機會，隨著時間的推移可持續地增加股息，在我們鞏固市場時絕對尋找巨大的併購機會，然後根據我們所處的位置靈活回購我們目前所處的槓桿範圍的低端為 1.1 倍。因此，無論市場背景如何，我們都有相當大的能力來利用市場。

Yes, Mike, and as you can imagine, the pipeline is still healthy, But as you can also imagine, we are mindful of valuations and what seller expectations look like and making sure that we can drive the right synergy case as we bring those acquisitions on Board. You saw us do 10 deals this past year. We're really proud of what that looks like.

是的，麥克，正如你所想像的，管道仍然健康，但正如你也可以想像的那樣，我們關注估值和賣方期望，並確保我們在進行這些收購時能夠推動正確的協同案例在船上。您看到我們去年完成了 10 筆交易。我們對它的樣子感到非常自豪。

As you look to going forward, a pretty balanced approach in both the residential side and non-residential side. It's worth reminding everyone that this is an organic growth first company that then complements that growth with M&A. And as we look at the residential side, we're going to continue to look at what M&A opportunities are available on the HVAC side of the world, making sure that we're a great succession planning opportunity for those small to medium sized independent wholesalers.

當你展望未來時，住宅方面和非住宅方面都會採取相當平衡的方法。值得提醒大家的是，這是一家以有機成長為先的公司，然後透過併購來補充這種成長。當我們著眼於住宅方面時，我們將繼續關注全球暖通空調方面的併購機會，確保我們為那些中小型獨立批發商提供一個很好的繼任計劃機會。

And then on the non-residential side, we're looking a lot at capability deals. Deals that can help us with areas like BDC virtual design, fabrication, valve and automation, things that can help us across multiple customer groups, especially in light of that continued growth in large capital projects and what makes us effective for the project as a whole.

然後在非住宅方面，我們正在密切關注產能交易。可以在 BDC 虛擬設計、製造、閥門和自動化等領域幫助我們的交易，可以幫助我們跨多個客戶群體，特別是考慮到大型資本項目的持續增長以及使我們對整個項目有效的因素。

That's great. Thank you for that. Just the second question, picking up on the HVAC comment, you know, HVAC has remained a nice source of growth and, and a good vertical for you. Obviously, you're trying to do a lot of things both organically and via M&A there. I may have missed this but in the 9% growth in 4Q, can you help us understand kind of what was organic?

那太棒了。謝謝你。關於第二個問題，關於暖通空調的評論，你知道，暖通空調仍然是一個很好的成長源，對你來說是一個很好的垂直領域。顯然，你正在嘗試透過有機方式和透過併購在那裡做很多事情。我可能錯過了這一點，但在第四季度 9% 的成長中，您能幫助我們了解什麼是有機的嗎？

And then when you're thinking about fiscal '25 and that set up, there's some tailwinds from the HVAC market, potentially. You've got your growth initiatives, you've obviously got some additional carry over M&A there, help us frame up kind of what type of contribution you'd expect from HVAC in the coming year.

然後，當您考慮 25 財年及其設置時，暖通空調市場可能會帶來一些推動力。您已經制定了成長計劃，顯然您已經在那裡進行了一些額外的併購結轉，幫助我們確定您期望暖通空調在來年做出什麼樣的貢獻。

Yes, Mike, we are really pleased with that HVAC performance, both in the quarter and for the year. So if you look at the 9%, the vast majority of that was organic. There are a couple points from acquisitions in there, but a really strong organic performance, both from the teams in the field and as we roll out our expansion strategy.

是的，麥克，我們對本季和今年的 HVAC 表現非常滿意。因此，如果你看看這 9%，你會發現其中絕大多數是有機的。收購有幾個要點，但無論是來自該領域的團隊還是當我們推出擴張策略時，有機表現都非常強勁。

And simply put, Mike, as you look at what we're going to do going forward, we're going to continue to build out our counter locations to make sure they've got the best representation of plumbing products as well as HVAC products. We've done over 200 counter renovations so far. We're on track to do north of 650 as we go through the next couple years.

簡而言之，麥克，當您看到我們未來要做什麼時，我們將繼續建造我們的櫃檯位置，以確保它們能夠最好地展示管道產品以及暖通空調產品。到目前為止，我們已經完成了 200 多個櫃檯改造。在接下來的幾年裡，我們有望突破 650。

We're also going to then do greenfield expansion to make sure that we can grow both equipment lines as well as expertise in markets where we don't currently have HVAC. We call it, HVAC everywhere we are plumbing, which is a read through to everywhere in the United States. And then as you look at rolling that together with M&A.

我們還將進行綠地擴張，以確保我們能夠在目前沒有暖通空調的市場中發展設備系列和專業知識。我們稱之為“我們管道中的暖通空調”，這是對美國各地的通讀。然後當你考慮將其與併購結合時。

As you know, sometimes you need to do M&A in order to get at some of the unitary equipment lines as well as great local relationships that we can bring together with our company to leverage the strengths of scale in that local market. So I'd look at it as a three-prong approach to growth in HVAC in the coming year.

如您所知，有時您需要進行併購，以獲得一些統一的設備生產線以及良好的當地關係，我們可以與我們的公司結合起來，利用當地市場的規模優勢。因此，我將其視為來年暖通空調產業成長的三管齊下的方法。

Great. Thanks, Kevin. Thanks. Bill.

偉大的。謝謝，凱文。謝謝。帳單。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

Thank you. Good morning, Kevin and Bill. Thanks for taking the time here. First off, I assume you have a macro backdrop when you're developing your fiscal year budget into the next year. Did you discuss really rough base case assumptions for general economic conditions and interest rates trajectory as we look to the new fiscal year here?

謝謝。早上好，凱文和比爾。感謝您抽出寶貴時間來到這裡。首先，我假設您在製定下一年的財政年度預算時有一個宏觀背景。當我們展望新財年時，您是否討論了總體經濟狀況和利率軌蹟的粗略基本假設？

Yeah, David, I kind of go back to what we said earlier as we think about our budgets and planning for the year. Yes, we look at things like GDP projections, but we're really trying to look at those leading indicators on both the resi-new, resi-RMI, and then non-res side of the business. So go back to those things we talked about, starts and permits certainly, as well as projections of starts and permits and embedded in those from the third party sources that we look at, there's some expectation of some level of rate cuts.

是的，大衛，當我們考慮今年的預算和計劃時，我有點回到我們之前所說的。是的，我們會關注 GDP 預測等內容，但我們實際上是在嘗試專注於業務的 Resi-New、Resi-RMI 以及非 Resi 的領先指標。因此，回到我們討論的那些事情，當然，開工和許可，以及開工和許可的預測，以及我們所看到的第三方來源的預測，人們對一定程度的降息有一定的預期。

We're probably not precisely trying to model rate cuts to the nearest quarter percent and build that into our models, but certainly there is an expectation that rates will come down as we move throughout the year. I think that's built into our expectation that the resi side of the market, while challenged in the first half and while it will still be down for the full year, should improve throughout the year.

我們可能並沒有精確地嘗試將降息幅度精確到最接近的四分之一，並將其納入我們的模型中，但可以肯定的是，隨著我們全年的行動，利率將會下降。我認為這是我們的預期之一，即市場的渣油方面雖然在上半年面臨挑戰，而且全年仍將下降，但全年應該會有所改善。

And then on the non-res side, I go back to some of those things that we talked about earlier and that Kevin highlighted around that traditional non-res business and some of the indicators like ABI that are still pointing to softness. We then look at our ability to win and outperform the market, particularly on areas like non-res large capital projects, and try to build that into both our budgets internally but also our guidance expectations.

然後在非資源方面，我回到了我們之前討論過的一些事情，凱文強調了傳統的非資源業務以及 ABI 等仍然表明疲軟的一些指標。然後，我們會審視我們贏得並超越市場的能力，特別是在非資源大型資本項目等領域，並嘗試將其納入我們的內部預算和指導預期中。

Got it. That makes sense. And then, peeling back the onion here on your low single digit revenue guidance for fiscal '25, it sounds like you're assuming markets down low single digit, deflation maybe a point, carryover from acquisitions probably a plus one, and then share gain maybe that typical 300 basis points to 400 basis points.

知道了。這是有道理的。然後，剝開你關於 25 財年低個位數收入指導的洋蔥，聽起來你假設市場下降低個位數，通貨緊縮可能是一個點，收購結轉可能是+1，然後是股票收益也許是典型的300 個基點到400 個基點。

Just correct me if I'm wrong on any of that. And then I guess secondarily, if market growth picks up through fiscal year '25 and if the inflation kind of flattens out, maybe turns to inflation, would that condition take you above the range here for your base case, or is that kind of trajectory what you're factoring into your full-year guidance?

如果我有任何錯誤，請糾正我。其次，我想，如果市場成長在 25 財年回升，並且通貨膨脹趨於平緩，也許會轉向通貨膨脹，那麼這種情況是否會使您的價格高於基本情況的範圍，或者是這種軌跡您在全年指導中考慮了什麼因素？

Yeah, given the fact that we're kind of framing the market around low single digits. So first off, I think you have the numbers right. I think the only thing you didn't mention that we highlighted is we're going to lose a sales day which isn't overly material, but it drives about 0.4% impact on the full year in terms of a lost sales day in Q3.

是的，考慮到我們正在將市場框架圍繞著低個位數。首先，我認為你的數字是正確的。我認為你沒有提到我們強調的唯一一件事是我們將失去一個銷售日，這並不是太重要，但就第三季的銷售日損失而言，它對全年產生了約0.4% 的影響。

But given the fact that we've tried to frame the markets down in the low single digit range, certainly there's some range around that and some range around our outperformance getting us to that low single digit increase. We think that's the bookends of a reasonable range sitting here today.

但考慮到我們試圖將市場限制在較低的個位數範圍內，當然，圍繞這個範圍還有一定的範圍，而我們的優異表現也有一定的範圍，使我們能夠實現較低的個位數增長。我們認為這是今天這裡合理範圍的書擋。

If rate cuts come through and if the markets pick up faster than that, is there a possibility for us to get above that range? Sure. But the flip side is there as well. So we think it's a pretty reasonable range as best we can read it today, sitting here today trying to read, call it 12 months out.

如果降息成功且市場回升速度比這更快，我們是否有可能突破該區間？當然。但另一方面也存在。所以我們認為這是一個相當合理的範圍，我們今天可以閱讀它，今天坐在這裡嘗試閱讀，稱之為 12 個月後。

Yes, Dave, and as we said in the opening remarks, if you look back over the last five years, we've had quite a step up in operating performance. And if you look at the guidance for the year in another down market with continued deflation, broadly, flat profit actually starts to look like a pretty good result that we can build from. And should markets accelerate a bit faster. Should we start to see price stabilization and deflation turn to potentially inflation. I think you could see that acceleration happen faster on our business in total.

是的，戴夫，正如我們在開場白中所說，如果你回顧過去五年，我們在經營業績方面取得了相當大的進步。如果你看看另一個持續通貨緊縮的低迷市場的今年指引，總體而言，持平的利潤實際上開始看起來是一個我們可以從中建立的相當不錯的結果。市場是否應該加速一點。我們是否應該開始看到價格穩定和通貨緊縮轉向潛在的通膨？我認為您可以看到我們的業務總體上加速發生得更快。

It all sounds good. Thanks a lot guys.

聽起來不錯。非常感謝大家。

Thank, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Will Jones, Redburn Atlantic.

威爾瓊斯，《雷德本大西洋月刊》。

Thanks. Good morning. A couple from me please. Firstly maybe on the large capital projects I had in mind a couple of years ago you talked about addressable market around $30 billion and you mentioned $50 billion today. Am I right in that? And is it just that more projects have kind of kicked off since that point in terms of the increase? And as a judgment, how far through the [$50 billion] do you would say we are?

謝謝。早安.請從我這裡來幾張。首先，也許在幾年前我想到的大型資本項目中，您談到了大約 300 億美元的潛在市場，而您今天提到了 500 億美元。我這樣說對嗎？從那時起，就成長而言，是否只是更多的專案啟動了？作為判斷，您認為我們離[500億美元]還有多遠？

Yes, Will, you're exactly right. When we first started talking about large capital projects, looking at third-party data as best we could quantify it. I can't remember the exact top line. $1.8 trillion in total projects, $30 billion was our addressable market expectation. And look, as we continue to look at that project set, looking at data like Dodge Analytics, the pipeline, the portfolio continues to build.

是的，威爾，你說得完全正確。當我們第一次開始談論大型資本項目時，我們會盡可能地查看第三方數據來量化它。我不記得確切的頂行了。項目總額為 1.8 兆美元，其中 300 億美元是我們的潛在市場預期。看看，當我們繼續關注該項目集、關注 Dodge Analytics 等數據、管道、投資組合時，我們會繼續建立。

We're now looking out through 2030 with that data, and there's a lot of potential activity out there for us. So it is a new way of working for us across a multi-customer group approach, and we think we have a great ability to take advantage of that. I'd still say we're in relatively early innings in terms of that capital being deployed across the US.

我們現在正在利用這些數據展望 2030 年，我們有許多潛在的活動。因此，這對我們來說是一種跨多客戶群的新工作方式，我們認為我們有很大的能力來利用這一點。我仍然想說，就在美國各地部署的資本而言，我們還處於相對較早的階段。

And if you look at how that's progressed, there was a lot of concern that certain projects would be either shelved or postponed indefinitely. And yes, there's been some shift as you look at electric vehicle manufacturing, for example, that has moved probably our optimism towards data center and power generation projects that have grown in scale and again added to that pipeline that Bill alluded to.

如果你看看進展如何，你會發現很多人擔心某些項目會被擱置或無限期推遲。是的，例如，當你審視電動車製造時，發生了一些轉變，這可能使我們對資料中心和發電項目持樂觀態度，這些項目規模不斷擴大，並再次增加到比爾提到的管道中。

And originally our focus in that area was because we knew that traditional knock-on commercial and non-residential activity was going to be pressured, but we saw good growth in those projects that were north of $400 million in overall construction value.

最初我們關注該領域是因為我們知道傳統的連鎖商業和非住宅活動將受到壓力，但我們看到這些項目的良好增長，總建築價值超過 4 億美元。

That's good to have it offset traditional knock-on commercial, but maybe even more importantly for us, as we look at a multi-customer group approach, and the fact that those complex projects require a great deal of service and care, it sets up quite well for the services that our company offers, and the profile of our company as a whole. So we're pleased with how that's progressed. We still think we're in early days of that. These projects are taking longer. And again, we're seeing growth as projects are added to that pipeline.

讓它抵消傳統的連鎖廣告是件好事，但對我們來說更重要的是，當我們考慮多客戶群體方法時，事實上這些複雜的項目需要大量的服務和護理，它建立了對於我們公司提供的服務以及我們公司的整體形象來說非常好。所以我們對進展感到滿意。我們仍然認為我們還處於早期階段。這些項目需要更長的時間。隨著項目的增加，我們再次看到了成長。

Thanks. And the second one, hopefully just a quick one, but on dual trade, when you look across the landscape, do you think there are many distributors that are either able or even trying to do similar to you on that front or do you think you're the leader there? Thanks.

謝謝。第二個，希望只是一個快速的，但是在雙重貿易方面，當你縱觀全局時，你認為有很多經銷商能夠甚至試圖在這方面做與你類似的事情，還是你認為你領導在嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, speak to us more specifically, because obviously we have a very fragmented industry that is also quite local. If you look at our business, we're a nationwide player. We've been a strong player inside of traditional residential trade plumbing for quite some time. We have grown our HVAC presence and really ramped up that growth rate across HVAC.

是的，請更具體地告訴我們，因為顯然我們有一個非常分散的行業，而且也非常本地化。如果你看看我們的業務，你會發現我們是全國性的企業。相當長一段時間以來，我們一直是傳統住宅貿易管道領域的重要參與者。我們擴大了暖通空調業務，並真正提高了整個暖通空調領域的成長率。

And so as you look at, call it the 65,000-ish dual trade companies, our approach is going to be to make sure that we are the best provider for the individual technician, HVAC or plumbing, but then offering a best-in-class tie together for that service.

因此，正如您所看到的那樣，將其稱為65,000 家左右的雙重貿易公司，我們的方法將是確保我們是個人技術人員、暖通空調或管道系統的最佳提供商，然後提供一流的服務為該服務捆綁在一起。

And as you look at consolidation of the trade professional and roll-up of contractors, we think we offer a unique solution in a nationwide landscape for plumbing and HVAC that has best-in-class service for the technician. That's really the strategy and that's what we're trying to continue to build out.

當您考慮專業貿易的整合和承包商的整合時，我們認為我們在全國範圍內為管道和暖通空調領域提供了獨特的解決方案，為技術人員提供了一流的服務。這確實是我們的策略，也是我們正在努力繼續發展的策略。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's Q&A session. So I'll now hand back over to Kevin Murphy for any closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把結束語交給凱文墨菲。

Thank you, operator. And thank you again for the time today. We appreciate it more than you know. And the way we began, and that is we're really thankful to our associates for their dedication in serving that specialist professional customer that is core to our business. We're quite pleased with the performance, both in the fourth quarter as well as in the full year.

謝謝你，接線生。再次感謝您今天抽出時間。我們比你知道的更感激它。我們開始的方式就是，我們非常感謝我們的員工致力於為我們業務核心的專業客戶提供服務。我們對第四季和全年的表現非常滿意。

The fact that we returned to volume growth, we expanded gross margins and we delivered a solid operating profit performance. And the cash generative model that we have really allows us with a strong balance sheet to continue to invest for growth because our markets are attractive over the medium term, both residentially, non-residentially, new construction and repair maintenance and improvement.

事實上，我們恢復了銷量成長，擴大了毛利率，並實現了穩健的營業利潤表現。我們擁有的現金產生模式確實使我們能夠擁有強大的資產負債表，繼續投資以實現成長，因為我們的市場在中期具有吸引力，無論是住宅、非住宅、新建建築還是維修保養和改進。

And we're going to capitalize on that underbuilt housing infrastructure that we have, capitalize on the aging infrastructure of homes in the US as well as the dual trade contractor growth, overall HVAC, and this country's investment in non-residential infrastructure. So thank you again for your time. We look forward to talking with you very soon.

我們將利用我們現有的未建成的住房基礎設施，利用美國老化的住宅基礎設施以及雙邊貿易承包商的成長、整體暖通空調以及該國對非住宅基礎設施的投資。再次感謝您抽出時間。我們期待盡快與您交談。

This concludes the Ferguson fourth quarter and year end results conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

弗格森第四季和年終業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。