Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning or good afternoon all, and welcome to the Ferguson plc half year results earnings conference call. My name is Adam, and I'll be the operator for this call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mark Fearon, Ferguson's Director of Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin your conference call.

Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Ferguson's first half earnings conference call and webcast. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the press release we issued this morning. This is available in the Investor Relations section of our corporate website. A transcript of this call and the slides will also be available later today, as will a recording of the call.

I want to remind everyone that some of our statements today, both in our prepared remarks or in answer to questions, may be forward-looking, including within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including those noted on Slide 2 and in our recent Form 20-F filing with the SEC. Other than in accordance with our legal and regulatory obligations, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

With me on the call today are Kevin Murphy, our CEO; and Bill Brundage, our CFO. And I will now turn the call over to Kevin for his prepared remarks.

Thank you, Mark, and thanks to everyone joining us on the call today. I hope that you and your loved ones are all staying safe.

We could not be prouder of what Ferguson and our 30,000 associates have achieved in the first half, given all the continuing challenges of the pandemic. We continue to serve our customers while, at the same time, protect the health and well-being of our associates. We generated good growth and achieved strong operational delivery in the first half. We also continued to invest in our business and execute our growth strategy at pace.

So turning to today's agenda. I'll kick things off and give you some highlights, and then Bill will give you an overview of the numbers. And then I'll come back and give you a quick update on our strategy and some of the areas the team is focusing on. Then Bill and I will be happy to answer all of your questions.

Turning to the highlights. In today's presentation, all the metrics stated are for continuing operations. The U.K. business, which was sold in half 1, is now characterized as a discontinued operation.

We are very proud that Ferguson achieved another period of strong operational delivery in the first half of fiscal 2021. Revenue of $10.3 billion was 4.2% ahead of last year and 3.4% ahead on an organic basis. Gross margins remain a key focus, and we've been pleased with their resilience through the pandemic. There has been a short-term shift in business and sales channel, but it's worth mentioning that this hasn't impacted our trading margins.

We continue to tightly control our operating expenses to ensure that the profit growth we achieve outpaces revenue growth. I'm pleased to say we delivered another period of strong leverage, and underlying trading profit in the first half was 12.2% ahead at $837 million, with headline EPS nearly 15% ahead, benefiting from the strong profit growth we achieved in the first half. We also delivered another strong cash performance, and this remains one of the key hallmarks of Ferguson.

The business continues to be underpinned by a strong balance sheet, which enables us to continue to invest in the business and in growth. In addition, funding the sustainable ordinary dividend through the cycle is an important part of our capital priorities, and the Board is recommending an increased interim dividend of $0.729 per share.

Ferguson is successful because of our associates, and our baseline commitment is to create a safe and healthy work environment for all. We will always embed safety as a core value driver in everything we do. We're pleased that our recordable injuries continue to improve with our group total injury rate and our lost time rate showing strong improvements.

We're making progress in our journey to become first in safety. And throughout the pandemic, keeping our associates and our customers safe has been at the forefront of everything we do. And in such a challenging year, we were really pleased to have also achieved a 3 percentage point increase in our associate engagement scores in this year's survey, which we completed in February.

We're also pleased with the continued momentum on the corporate actions we set out last year. We delivered what we promised, and we're pleased with the execution here. Most importantly, as markets have recovered, we have progressively been able to put our strong balance sheet back to work in terms of restarting investment in the bolt-on M&A program, resuming ordinary dividend payments and returning surplus capital to shareholders.

First, M&A. We're really pleased with the 4 bolt-on deals we completed in the first half, which represented an investment of $224 million. Acquisitions are a core part of our growth strategy, and in recent weeks, we completed Amerock, a leading brand of decorative cabinet hardware; and Clarksville Lighting & Appliance, a showroom business based in Tennessee.

Having restored ordinary dividend payments, we now feel that the group's prospects and continued strong financial position means we can also resume returning surplus capital. We are announcing today we will buy back up to $400 million of the company's shares. In January, we announced the completion of the disposal of Wolseley U.K., which achieves our aim of focusing our business on North America. We will return substantially all the proceeds from the transaction alongside the interim dividend payment in May. So if you take our interim dividend, share buyback and special dividend payments together, Ferguson has committed to returning just under $1 billion to shareholders in the coming months.

Our additional U.S. listing on the New York Stock Exchange went live last week. This was a very proud moment for all Ferguson's associates, and we expect that over time, the U.S. listing will facilitate increased interest in the business from domestic U.S. investors. And since the start of the calendar year, we've been steadily increasing our engagement with this significant pool of capital.

We grew faster than the markets we serve in the first half and continued to gain share, with our outperformance estimated at about 3%. We think our markets have remained about flat in the first half, with residential continuing to grow. New residential is strongest, though RMI, where we generate the majority of our revenue, is also growing well.

Nonresidential markets remain much more challenging, with commercial markets down about mid-single digits and civil down low single digit. Industrial remains the weakest market, although there are early signs that this market appears to be bottoming out. We track data points from numerous economic, industry and research sources as well as surveying our own customers and measuring our order books.

In the second half, we anticipate that markets overall will return to growth, driven by the continued strength of residential markets, which represent just over half of our business. We're also seeing an increasing tailwind from inflation, which started in commodities but is now flowing through into finished goods due to rising input, manufacturing and transportation costs.

Now let me pass you over to Bill, who will walk you through the numbers.

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning or afternoon, everyone. As Kevin mentioned, the numbers on the accompanying slides are for the continuing operations of the group, comprised of the U.S., Canada and central costs.

We had a strong first 6 months with continued momentum from Q1 into Q2. As expected, we've seen broadly flat U.S. end markets during the first half, and we're pleased with the performance of our business against this backdrop. Total revenue growth was 4.2%. Organic revenue growth was up 3.4%, and acquisitions added a further 1.5%, with the balance offset by 1 fewer trading day.

Gross margins were down 20 basis points due to a combination of business and channel mix. But I'm very pleased with the continued cost control and operating leverage resulting in underlying trading profit of $837 million, up $91 million or 12.2%. Headline EPS increased by 14.5%, principally due to the increase in trading profit.

The balance sheet is in great shape, and we were 0.6x levered at the half year. As Kevin mentioned, we are returning the proceeds from the U.K. disposal of approximately $400 million and have initiated a new $400 million share buyback. If you take both of these items into consideration, the pro forma leverage position is 1x.

The U.S. business delivered another strong operational performance despite challenging conditions. We continue to outgrow flat markets with organic revenue growth of 3.3% and total growth of 4.1%. Price inflation was broadly flat overall but strengthened through the period.

Gross margins were slightly lower due to a combination of business and channel mix. We controlled costs well and generated strong operating leverage. Head count grew modestly to support volume growth, and we continue to invest in the organic growth of the business in the areas of digital, technology and supply chain. We continue to benefit from a combination of the restructuring actions announced last year as well as ongoing savings during the pandemic in areas such as travel, customer engagement and health care. Consequently, underlying trading profit came in at $823 million, $83 million ahead of last year, with underlying trading margins of 8.5%.

We've provided a breakout of revenue growth across our largest customer groups in the U.S. As Kevin outlined, we saw strength in the residential end market, and our customer groups serving that end market performed well. Residential trade and showroom grew well, and we continue to see particularly strong trends in eBusiness due to strong residential demand from the project-minded consumer and a light decorative pro. In HVAC, where the majority of our business serves the residential end market, we delivered double-digit growth.

Commercial/mechanical continued to be restricted by more challenging nonresidential markets. We continue to see our commercial customers pivoting towards areas such as data and distribution centers as work in office, hospitality and retail has slowed. Waterworks continued to outperform the market with revenues up slightly. And the other bucket is comprised of Fire and Fabrication, Facilities Supply and Industrial, which has remained weak.

The Canadian business delivered a strong operating result, generating revenue growth of 5.2% in the first half. Residential end markets, which account for nearly 60% of our Canadian business, performed well in the period, with a particularly strong performance from our HVAC business. We also saw growth in civil infrastructure markets, but industrial markets remained challenging.

Similar to the U.S., gross margins were lower than last year, but good cost control and benefits of restructuring led to a $7 million increase in underlying trading profit and an improvement in trading margin to 6%. As we focus solely on North American markets, we are leveraging the considerable expertise, knowledge and know-how from our U.S. associates to enhance operations and customer experience across Canada.

Finance charges were as expected, with the increase principally due to a higher level of average gross debt in the prior half year. The effective tax rate was also as expected and in line with our technical guidance. Exceptional charges for continuing operations were small in the first half with modest costs associated with the U.S. listing, partially offset by adjustments to previously accrued business restructuring expenses. Exceptional charges on discontinued operations were $188 million, principally as a result of exiting the U.K.

There was a $63 million impairment resulting from a small loss on the book value of assets as well as transaction costs. There was a further $135 million of net cumulative currency translation adjustments arising from exiting the U.K. operating company, offset in part by winding down a dormant former U.K. group financing company. These currency translation adjustments have built up over many years as a result of movements in GBP to U.S. dollar exchange rates, and it's important to note that they are noncash items.

I've set out the cash flows on a pre-IFRS 16 basis, which more closely mirrors the U.S. GAAP standards, but there is a reconciliation to the statutory numbers in the appendix. We take a disciplined approach to cash generation. It's an important priority and quality of our business model. Cash flow from operations was $559 million after a seasonal working capital outflow of $361 million. It's worth highlighting that due to recent supply chain pressures and low vendor fill rates, we continue to invest in inventory, ensuring that we have the best levels of availability for our customers. As I said on the previous slide, interest and tax came in as expected in the first half. CapEx was a touch lower than last year, but we continue to invest in the organic growth of our business, particularly on our digital front end, overall technology journey and world-class supply chain.

We returned $460 million to shareholders in the form of dividends in the first half, which included both the deferred interim dividend from 2020 as well as the final dividend. We invested $224 million in bolt-on acquisitions, a core part of our growth strategy. And finally, the disposal cash principally relates to the sale of the U.K. business, and as discussed, we are returning this to shareholders through a special dividend.

Our balance sheet and access to liquidity has been and continues to be a source of strength as we have guided the business through the ongoing challenges of the pandemic. We finished the period with a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x. As previously noted, this rises to 1x on a pro forma basis when you consider the special dividend and the share buyback. Lease liabilities recognized under IFRS 16 were $1.1 billion, a little lower than last year after we exited the U.K. business at the end of January. The net pension position moved to a deficit to a lower -- due to lower discount rates on planned liabilities but remains modest compared to the gross asset value of approximately $2.2 billion.

Turning to capital allocation. We remain committed to our capital allocation priorities. While we have operated prudently during the pandemic, as markets have recovered, we have progressively reinstated our capital priorities, and we continue to target a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA range of 1 to 2x.

Investment in organic growth, principally through working capital and CapEx, remains our first priority. We remain committed to growing our dividends sustainably through the cycle. We will then invest in selective bolt-on acquisition opportunities and return surplus capital to shareholders over time when we are below our leverage range.

Moving on to technical guidance. Most of our guidance remains unchanged from 6 months ago. We have 1 fewer trading day this year worth approximately $15 million of trading profit. We lost one in the first quarter, we will gain one in the third quarter and lose one in the fourth quarter. I've included the revenue impact of completed acquisitions on the fiscal '21 full year figures. Guidance has been increased to account for the Amerock and Clarksville acquisitions. The interest and tax guidance remains unchanged. CapEx guidance is a touch lower than previously guided, in part due to exiting the U.K. operations.

As you think about performance for the rest of this fiscal year, we expect to see the continued benefit of the business restructuring charges we took last year. In addition to those restructuring actions, as we discussed at last year-end as well as in Q1, when the lockdown impacted our business from April, we took a number of decisive short-term actions on the cost base, including placing 2,500 associates on temporary layoff. Those temporary layoffs are done, and those associates are now back at work. Our associates represent the intellectual capital of our business, and as we move forward, we will continue to invest in head count as well as in our digital front end, technology initiatives and supply chain in order to capture future market growth.

We also expect, as the world returns to a more normal operating environment, that we'll start to see some costs come back into the business in certain cost categories such as travel and customer engagement. And we are facing inflationary cost pressures in areas such as supply chain and transportation. Despite these cost headwinds, our business is well positioned, and we remain committed to driving long-term productivity and operating leverage through our business model.

I also wanted to take the opportunity today to announce, in alignment with our strategy and in another step on our journey to North America, the group will change to U.S. GAAP reporting as of August 1 of this year in order to aid comparability with U.S. peers. We will host an investor session on the topic prior to the end of the fiscal year to communicate the impact to the financials and provide reconciliations from IFRS to U.S. GAAP.

So let me wrap up. I am pleased with the first half results that the team delivered. Good earnings and good cash generation provided us the ability to continue to execute against our capital priorities. Our balance sheet is strong, and we are well positioned going into the second half.

Let me now hand you back to Kevin.

Thanks, Bill. Let's move on to the business update and how we're executing our strategy.

Our strategic framework is our road map for developing our business. We will continue to drive all our resources and knowledge to make sure that through a consultative approach, our customers' projects are more successful because they dealt with Ferguson. We will be our customers' trusted adviser, giving them unrivaled choice of products, sourcing the leading brands in all our categories, including our growing portfolio of high-quality owned brands, offering a true omnichannel experience so that doing business with us is as frictionless as possible.

Distribution remains a core competency, and we bring the deepest and widest inventory in our product categories with a world-class supply chain. That is our core, and we are continuing to invest here.

Personal relationships are critical, but we believe this is not enough. We will also build capabilities that drive the best digitally enabled customer relationships. We will use technology to make our business more productive and equip our associates with the tools that drive productivity while saving time for the customer and all the while never being afraid to experiment or to innovate.

In the next few slides, let me give you a sense of some of the key areas we're driving as we continue to execute the strategy. The next slide is an example of sales execution that cut across our vertical customer groups. To be truly successful, we must create value for the ultimate owner and general contractor on a project.

A great example of how we're working to meet the needs of a large and complex project is our approach to a new $6 billion residential and commercial project in the western U.S., which is currently in the planning stages. Here, we're harnessing the power of our scale and breadth of our business to meet the diverse needs of the developer through a single unified consultative approach. To give you some idea of the scale, the first phase of the project will involve building 5 resort hotels; over 500 residential units; resort amenities, including extensive commercial and retail facilities; essential temporary infrastructure, including a 50-unit temporary workforce hotel; and supporting infrastructure, including roads and utilities.

We're being written into the specifications with the general contractor and the subcontractors. The end customer will benefit from a single approach to procurement across multiple customer groups. Our approach includes design support, building code compliance, LEED-level environmental goals as well as providing readily available inventory across all of the trades at a remote site location. All of this will be delivered through dedicated resources, including associates, a temporary branch and laydown space close to the site and done together with the trade professional. This highlights the power of Ferguson's diversity and our objective to be a part of our end customers' decision-making process sooner, evolving from order taker to trusted adviser and always be project-driven rather than simply quoting list.

Moving on to supply chain, which in today's environment is even more important than ever. We bridge the gap between approximately 37,000 suppliers, utilizing scale in our distribution to serve over 1 million customers. Our customers require access to a wide variety of products. They expect high fill rates and speed of delivery.

Ferguson's supply chain is built around these needs. We are not complacent about the need to continue to invest in a world-class procurement, logistics and supply chain. It's the heart of our business, and we continuously evaluate our distribution network to optimize it for efficient speed based on our proximity to every major U.S. market.

We will have the most effective and efficient same-day, next-day omnichannel supply chain in the U.S. by placing our product closer to the customer, being in stock for shipping same day while further developing the capability for 24/7 access to our inventory by our customers. Today, we have 6.5 million square feet in 10 DCs and more than 35 million square feet in our branch network as the foundation for our overall omnichannel strategy, supported by developing best-in-class technology and tools.

We've also established import centers on each coast to ensure efficient replenishment of globally sourced products across the country. The strategy also includes progressively developing our market distribution centers in the major MSAs as the most efficient means of final-mile distribution. Our network of RDCs, pipe yards, import centers, MDCs and branches allows us to put the product closer to the customer, increasing the speed of delivery and providing greater operating efficiency.

A good example of how we're progressively optimizing the network is our newest facility located in Denver, a $1.5 billion residential and commercial market, with over 70 branches. Our new 450,000-square-foot MDC in Denver provides a more cost-effective fulfillment solution within Ferguson's distribution center network. It allowed us to consolidate 4 existing sites, providing next-day replenishment to our branch network and same-day delivery to customers across the region.

It does this by eliminating double handling, enabling us to make deliveries directly from the MDC to customers in the Denver metro market and scale with far fewer support staff. Operations are safer for our associates with greater automation and robotics technology to reduce manual handling and deliver speed. Over time, we'll progressively expand this improved MDC model within other major MSAs at a rate of about 2 to 3 per year, which is included within our planned CapEx requirements.

Moving on to digital and technology. We must have a build on the best relationships in the industry. Our customers want flexibility and a seamless interaction, from order to fast delivery and returns. Now more than ever, we're focusing on technology solutions and pairing digital capabilities with our existing associate-customer relationships.

Pro pickup is a fast collect service, providing digital enhancements to online order placement, order status and delivery. For customers ordering online through their mobile device or over the phone, the service puts the customer in control by giving them multiple delivery and pickup options that best fits their changing needs. Once placed, orders are typically picked up in 1 to 3 hours at the branch selected by the customer who then receives real-time alerting of the order progress.

During COVID-19, we introduced curbside pickup at our counters to protect our customers and our associates. For that reason, pro pickup also now includes a text to customer service so that when a customer's order is ready, he or she can text us when they arrive and we'll bring their order out to their vehicle. We're also now piloting secure lockers for stock at our major sites, which enables both contactless pickup but also 24/7 access to product, which can be really useful for our customers doing off-hours repairs.

So in summary, sat here today, our business is in very good shape. We're extremely proud of how our associates have continued to rise to the challenge, and we're staying focused on protecting their well-being as well as our customers. We are pleased with the operational delivery given the ongoing challenges of our markets, and we will continue to focus on the rapid execution of our strategy. That means investing in the strong foundation of a world-class supply chain, delivering a consultative approach to our customers; a balanced product strategy and investing in digital and technology.

Thank you for your attention. Now Bill and I will be very happy to take any questions or comments you have. Operator, I'll hand the call back over to you.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Will Jones of Redburn.

A couple for me, if I could, please. The first was just exploring the step up in the like-for-like sales growth so far in Q3. Could you just, I guess, give us a bit more color on that, particularly the extent to which it's being driven by price and/or volume, I suppose, within the mix? And then would your working assumption be that, that number could actually trend higher for the last 4 months of the year from April, just given that you start to lap some of the COVID comps?

And then the second question was just around gross margins. Just if you could give us a feel for any mix issues, positive or negative, as we look into the second half. I guess things like maybe counters and showroom reaccelerate, but then you've got commodity inflation coming through. Just how you see that balancing out mix-wise.

And just more generally, I guess, on gross margins. Is there anything you would call out around competitive dynamics in any of the business lines that have changed in the first half of the year alongside that mix effect?

Thank you, Will. This is Kevin. And maybe I'll give a start to the questions and then hand over to Bill.

In terms of the step up in Q3 and like-for-like and what that trend looks like, I think it's built on several things. Number one, we're seeing, again, ongoing good progress in the residential markets, both new construction and RMI. On the new construction side, led by single-family new construction, but quite frankly, multifamily is still performing well. And then the RMI side, as housing stock turns over and as you have people that have spent a tremendous amount of time in their home as an office, as a gym, as a school and more generally, we're seeing good signs from that perspective. So that residential market is driving.

But the commercial market, although down, call it, mid-single digits and if you look at what put in place is supposed to be for 2021 at down 8%, we're seeing actually our contractors gravitate towards where those areas and those pockets of strength are, and our company is doing the same thing. Bill highlighted in his portion around distribution centers, and that's been a very solid growth area for us across multiple customer verticals as that distribution center activity has been solid. So we see that supporting.

We also see inflation coming through on the commodity side, which is really where it started in half 1. We saw about 7% inflation in commodities, commodities being about 10% of our business. And it really has started to flow into the finished goods side of the inventory based on what's happening with our manufacturers trying to make sure they maintain a safe work environment, but at the same time, take up for some product shortages that are out there and make sure that we can get it through the supply chain.

You've got some transportation shortages and the like that are making things a bit more challenging from a product availability side, and we're seeing that flow through in price inflation as input costs, manufacturing and transportation rise. And so we do think that will provide a tailwind. It will have us working very diligently to make sure that we drive price in the market appropriately and a great communication with our contractors as they talk with their owners and developers. So we see both of those things benefiting what our sales environment is in Q3, and that's supported by our open order volumes.

On the gross margin side, yes, we had about 20 basis points down in half 1, and I think that's generally a good positive in terms of the resiliency and our support for gross margin. That was caused by a business mix and sales channel mix, which we start to see changing a bit on the sales channel mix. We're starting to see customer activity inside of our counters, and our showrooms increase as we entered Q3. That pace continues to grow as you start to see some unlocking from a pandemic perspective and you see more open environments across the country to homeowners, allowing trade professionals to come in and do repair/remodel work. So we do believe that will be positive. It'll be positive on growth. It'll be positive from a margin perspective.

The other thing that we're seeing that we're -- we believe will be supportive from a gross margin perspective is that as supply chain pressures are out there, our associates are guiding customers to those products that we keep in stock, that we have ample supply chain capabilities for and that are also part of our product strategy, which is the best growth avenue for gross margin for us. So we're pretty positive on both of those fronts.

I don't know, Bill, if you have any -- good? Does that answer the question, Will?

Great.

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes of Truist.

Just kind of building on the last question. You talked about some pockets of commercial seeming to do better. If you could talk a little bit about the Industrial business a little bit more, seeing the biggest declines in the first half. Is that now bottoming out? And are there any signs, with the potential transportation bill in the U.S., the infrastructure starting to get some movement in the second half of the year?

Yes. Thank you, Keith. From an industrial perspective, it's worth reminding it's about 6% of our overall business mix, sat here today. We do see that bottoming out and starting to improve. From a comparable perspective, we really started to -- we start to come up against some very favorable comps in March, April, May for our business from an industrial perspective, and so we do see that returning to a more positive environment.

That said, we still see some challenges in the manufacturing environment for pipe valve and fitting and doing some shutdown work just because manufacturers are behind schedule in terms of production. And so that's going to continue to ebb and flow. And then we have a decent piece of exposure in our integrated business on the aircraft engine side of the world, and that's still going to have some time before that gets back to growth. But generally speaking, we're bullish around what Industrial can be in the second half given those comparables.

On the infrastructure side of the world, that's mostly in our waterworks business on the civil side. And today, that waterworks business is seeing good markets residentially and commercially. And then we'll wait and see what happens from a civil perspective. We've got a growing stormwater, geosynthetic, soil stabilization business that we think can be helpful in addition to general water and sewer on that infrastructure side.

Okay. And second question around margins. With the inflation that you described and we see in the market coming, do you anticipate -- in the second half, will there be a period of time where your margins will be compressed as you pass those prices through? Or will that not be an issue in this round of inflation?

Keith, what I'll say is that our teams -- it's top of mind every morning when they wake up and come to work, how do we make sure that we have good communication with our contractor and with our contractor's customer on what price is going to happen, what product availability looks like and how do we make sure that increases are passed through the supply chain appropriately. I can say it's been, historically, a core competency of our company through hard work. But it's day to day, and we manage through that and take a great deal of pride and effort in doing so.

It's a tough environment out there right now. As you look at, say -- just going back to one of the initial areas of supply chain pressure on the appliance side of the business. When we are securing a piece of business with a builder or even with a consumer, we're having to place orders very early in the project just to make sure that we get product in our warehouses and have it available for the customer when they need it. And making sure that, that communication line is very tight is hugely important. So I don't anticipate short-term margin disruption, but it's a point of effort as we go through day to day.

Our next question comes from Elodie Rall of JPMorgan.

My first question would be on the U.S. listing, and you mentioned that you're hoping to see an increase interest from domestic investors. So my question is have you seen actually already a shift a little bit in your investor base? How much would you say is now U.S. based versus Europe based? And would you see scope to switch to a primary U.S. listing before 1 year? So that's my first question.

My second question is regarding the acquisitions that you've made in H1 for $224 million. Would you confirm that the EV/EBITDA multiple that you state is still around the 7 to 10x historic level? And how much synergies would you expect to deliver on top?

And if I may just put in a third quick one, just as a follow-up on margin expectation for 2021. Given what you've said on top line and cost increasing, would you see some risk to consensus estimates for margin, which is, I believe, around 9.1% post IFRS 16 for this year?

Thank you, Elodie. I'll take maybe the first question and let Bill jump in. From a U.S. listing perspective, obviously, we're pretty pleased, as I said in the statement, with being able to achieve the additional listing on the New York Stock Exchange on March 8. A lot of hard work by the teams getting us ready for that step.

And so if I look back over the past year, when we first started this journey, we said we were going to take this in a 2-step process. We consulted with shareholders in great detail, and we're really encouraged that shareholders said, "We want to hear from the Board what they believe is in the best interest of the company," and that was very encouraging. And then to have our Board -- we came out and indicated that we felt like the best long-term listing structure was in the U.S. for the company but that we take a 2-step process. So achieving that listing on March 8 was a big step.

We still got a lot of work to do, and that revolves around Sarbanes-Oxley. We've still got to migrate some job and work from the U.K. over to the U.S. in our Ferguson group services operations. We're transitioning to U.S. GAAP, as indicated. So there's still a lot of work to do.

And yes, if you go back to the original statement last year, we said we could get the vote on the primary around about a year from standing up that additional listing. Sat here today, that seems appropriate. But what I would say is we've still got a lot of work to do in how we approach that additional listing and the things I talked about as well as managing the business operationally through what is still a very challenging market, a dynamic market that we're operating in.

So that's about where we are from a listing perspective. And maybe Bill will take the acquisition margin expansion.

Yes. Maybe just to round that first question a bit, Elodie. I think you asked on the percentage split on investors. If you look on our website, we actually had a study done in October. About 33% of our shareholders are U.S. based today. We have not seen that move appreciably over the last several months.

On your question on acquisitions, yes, the 4 deals that we've completed this fiscal year were very much kind of in line with that historical multiple from a 7 to 10 perspective. Keep in mind we do always have, in year 1 -- once we acquire those acquisitions, we always have some one-off year 1 integration costs that come along with that. But feel very good about those 4 deals that we've completed.

And then in terms of the expectations from a top line perspective, as Kevin outlined and as we've talked about already in the Q&A, from a -- currently running at high single digits. What we were flagging from a cost perspective is that we are, first and foremost, really pleased with the restructuring actions that we took last year and how that's played through to the first half from an operating leverage perspective. If you look at that first half, we've had about 80 basis points of operating leverage on sales.

As you flip the calendar and you look out towards Q4, just a reminder in terms of some of those temporary actions that we took last year as we were in that environment, taking those temporary actions such as the 2,500 associates that we had on temporary layoff. As we talked about last year, we actually had a bit of a better revenue performance last year in Q4, and that led to a bit of an outsized drop-through in trading margin in Q4.

So on balance, we feel really good about the cost base. We feel really good about how we're balancing cost discipline with investment to take advantage of those top line market opportunities that Kevin talked about, and we feel that we're well positioned for a good second half.

Our next question is from James Rose from Barclays.

I've got 2, please. First is on -- you've touched on some of the supply chain pressures you've seen so far and just scarcity. Could you just talk a bit more about how you're dealing with that and what impact it could have on growth and cost? I mean do you think you can still carry on doing high single digit and above with some of those availability issues in the market?

And then secondly is on freight costs. Is this -- I mean other distributors have flagged it as well, but is this a short-term, sort of COVID-related inflation? Or is it a bit more structural? And how are you -- are you able to pass that on through? Are you able to pass that on at all?

Great. Thank you, James. I'll start off with that. From a supply chain perspective, just to give you a sense of what we're dealing with because it is broad-based, across a wide variety of the products that we handle and product categories we handle. So just to give a sense.

From a DC inbound perspective, historically, DC inbound shipments were about 75% fill rate, on time and in full. Today, we're sitting at about 48%. But what's really helpful from the strength of our company and scale of our company is that we're turning those 48% fill rates around into a 94.3% fill rate from DC to branch customer. And so really pleased with the ability to turn that around.

We're appropriately using the strength of the balance sheet to invest in inventory and to make sure that we've got the best product, breadth and depth for our customer. Our associates are selling and guiding customers to those products that we believe we can handle from a supply chain perspective and deliver on time and in full to their job sites. So I think that we'll see customer attraction to that strength and it will serve us well.

Can I speak about what's going to happen as we go? It's a very dynamic environment out there right now. And on things like PVC, PVC pipe and what that availability looks like, it's a pressure point right now. That said, from an inflation perspective, I can't really comment on whether it's structural. You don't want me commenting on monetary policy or fiscal policy for that matter.

But what I do see, what we see is price increase coming into the system at a fairly rapid rate. It started with commodities, and it's moved into our finished goods inventory. It could be a temporary phenomenon, but we believe we've got supportive residential end markets that together with that inflation tailwind, managed appropriately, will serve us well as we go into our Q3 and Q4.

James, maybe on your second question, specifically on freight costs, we are certainly seeing some very high spot freight rates out there in the marketplace, everything from, call it, ocean freight rates that are spot rates up 50% to 75% to LTL and truckload rates that are up 20% to 30%. To put that in context, about 6% of our cost base is distribution and freight. If you think about though, we are very well positioned with good long-term contracts and good long-term relationships with our suppliers; with our transportation suppliers, that is.

In addition to that, we do run our own private fleet for final-mile distribution. So we have 3,500 small and heavy-duty trucks on the road each and every day so we can manage that cost base a little bit more distinctly within our own P&L. So we are managing well through the transportation price inflation, but it's certainly something that we're keeping a watchful eye on.

Our next question is from David Manthey of Baird.

I was hoping to get your thoughts on Ferguson's moat relative to online-only competitors. And Kevin, does -- the success of Build.com, what does it tell you about the future and how that will look for you?

Yes. David, thank you. Great question. As we think about online, we do believe that the best digitally enabled customer relationship is extremely important. We do believe in an omnichannel future. And so when we look at our pure play -- more pure-play eBusiness growth, we're pretty bullish.

Obviously, the COVID environment, from a DIY perspective and with that light decorative pro, has been a good growth area for the economy. We've seen that. Our eBusiness growth rate is up 40% in the half; and quite frankly, our Build with Ferguson, up 50-plus percent. And so good growth, good customer service.

We have brought that Build with Ferguson together with our showroom to give a best-in-class omnichannel experience for that, again, DIY, light decorative pro and that customer who wants to act in an omnichannel fashion. So we're pleased with the progress that we've made, but that journey is very much (technical difficulty)

Our next question is from Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research.

Just following back on the high single-digit organic growth in the current quarter. And looking at Slide 11, it was very helpful with giving greater segmentation.

Is there continued outsized trading from residential? Or is it some of the subcategories seeing [kind of greater relative improvements], whether it's commercial or fire and safety? But really understanding just kind of the puts and takes of the structurally better [momentum] and that current greater growth rate.

Thank you, Kathryn. You were breaking up a bit, but I think I got the gist of the question.

If we look down through the customer verticals and where we're seeing pockets of strength and maybe some challenges, from a residential trade perspective, we feel good about the growth that we've had. And as we entered Q3 and have played through Q3, some of that strength that we've seen has come from that residential trade sector. I think I highlighted earlier that we're starting to see counter activity pick up and grow and accelerate. We're seeing customers being allowed into homes more across the country to do remodel work as we go. And so that DIY that was so very strong is now starting to see greater balance with that trade professional.

On the builder side, we're seeing showroom traffic for our attached consumer really start to increase. We've done well to increase our staffing levels and our associate count both from a customer service rep perspective but also showroom consultants because, in many markets, we're seeing our consultation appointments start to lengthen, and the need to address that is very acute.

Again, to David's question earlier, bringing together Build.com as Build with Ferguson together with the showroom has started to make our customer more productive and really help the productivity of our showroom consultants and then and shrink the time necessary for that consultation process. So we're really pleased with what our eBusiness, showroom builder and residential trade markets are doing against that residential strength that we're seeing out in the markets.

On the commercial side, I spoke to a bit of distribution center activity. That's been a source of strength for quite some time. It really is across all of our businesses, Fire and Fabrication and sprinkler pipe buildout with heads and devices, what we're seeing with underground construction and general commercial activity.

As we think about land pressures, one of the areas that has been very positive on the distribution center side is what we've been able to do with retention/detention for stormwater management and the underground applications that are associated with that, very good engineering-oriented solutions that our company is able to deliver, and it's been very helpful for us on the commercial side. That's really part of the waterworks business vertical.

Please, Kathryn, go ahead.

I guess the one follow-up on commercial. Our primary research is showing, and it's still the very early stages, granted, that as we prepare for a post-COVID world, you're seeing more structural things that are happening, whether it's mobile handwashing stations in schools to revamping HVAC systems. To what extent are you seeing any of those early signs of the more fundamental changes in post-COVID world impacting your commercial business?

Yes. I think your word early is right on. We're seeing great growth on a small base for indoor air quality, very acutely on light commercial. We're starting to see it grow more rapidly.

One of the nice parts about this multi-customer vertical, diverse base of revenue that we have is our HVAC teams are coming together with our facility supply teams and our plumbing organization to work with schools, both K-12 but also university level, and start to address things like touchless faucets, hand dryers, what we're seeing with humidity control, ventilation and overall HVAC system upgrades. I think that will serve us well as some of the stimulus money starts to make its way through into the educational system, and we're also seeing some degree of ramp-up -- it's very early, but some degree of ramp-up in university housing and what that renovation market looks like in university housing. It's very early days, but we're starting to see some signs of that, and we're pretty bullish on that as we go forward.

Yes. I would suspect that on the schooling, you should see a ramp-up because -- given the 3 priorities with the Biden stimulus plan. One of those is schools. So it will be interesting to see how that tracks.

The final question is really very helpful in talking about inflationary pressures and supply chain, really 2 parts. Are you seeing any residual impact from the Texas freeze? We've heard it from a [few contacts], it's really more related to the supply chain, be it chemical plants; having, for instance, a hard -- a greater challenge getting certain products that go into finished products.

And then the other follow-up on inflation. In general, historically -- because you sell a higher value-add product, historically, you have been able to add on pricing beyond inflation. Just a confirmation of that.

Thank you. And when you talk about the storm in the central part of the United States, particularly in Texas, it had a short-term negative impact as the storm was actually playing out. But then immediately following the freeze, we saw a jump up -- a very strong jump up that really stressed the system in terms of our trade professionals and their need for product, everything from what was happening with leaks and pipe bursts all the way through water heater failures and the need to replace water heaters and the like. And so our teams have been working nonstop to make sure that they take care of their customers in that Texas market across the landscape.

From an industrial perspective, yes, we did see resin plants have some short-term disruption. That's played its way through in both allocation of resin to pipe manufacturers and then the corresponding allocation onto the wholesale and retail channels.

We're managing that.

The strength of our supply chain and our inventory position puts us in a good place with our contractors, but the need is to pass on price increase as we go through that. The other bright side to our ability to help the industrial sector is we saw a good ramp-up in industrial spend in the Texas marketplace, both on maintenance and repairs as a result of the storm but also some catalysts for some capital spend as well. So that Texas market is driving pretty good growth right now.

Our next question comes from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs.

Just 2 for me, please. As we look into Q3 and Q4 of FY '21, are there any trading implications that we need to be aware of?

And the second one is on the medium-term EBIT margins. As you see more growth from the online channel, digitally enabled customer relationships, what are the dynamics we should be aware of, implications for gross margins because -- EBIT margins, for example? And how will that play out in terms of, okay, are you still targeting EBIT margin improvement? But maybe it is coming from slightly lower gross margins offset by slightly lower cost to service.

Yes. Thanks for the question. From a trading day perspective, we lost one in our first quarter. We will pick up a trading day in Q3, and we will lose one then in Q4.

Yes. And so on the margin story, especially as we move towards that digitally enabled customer relationship, that omnichannel approach, we do not see that as having a detrimental effect on EBIT margins. From a gross margin perspective and our pricing, it is aligned together with our showroom, and we need to be competitive to the marketplace in a very transparent pricing world. And then we've got to make sure that we address cost to serve for that customer as they're doing business in an omnichannel fashion.

So long term, we still believe that we can enhance gross margins about 10 basis points a year based on the value we provide and implementing that product strategy. And then we believe that we can drive operating leverage based on that gross margin expansion and productivity, such that profit grows faster than sales as we go. So we do not see that as a negative or a drag as we move to an omnichannel world.

Our final question today comes from Emily Biddulph of Crédit Suisse.

I just wanted to come back on the supply chain issues that you were talking about. Obviously, the fill rates that you gave are really useful. I just wondered whether you -- what you're sort of seeing at competitors and whether you think this is a sort of big enough pressure on smaller competitors that we might be able to think about you outperforming the market by more in the second half of the year than you would do usually. Or sort of is this just a challenge for everyone and we shouldn't sort of -- we shouldn't expect to see it in numbers too much?

We're seeing supply chain pressures across a more broad-based product set than what we've seen in a while. We do believe that the strength of our company is attractive to our customers more so today than even in a more normalized environment. When you look at the strength of the balance sheet and our ability to invest in inventory and get product quickly from different parts of the country to satisfy customer needs, we do believe that customers are going to gravitate towards strength in this type of environment.

We're seeing that play out. We're seeing it play out in terms of the interaction that we're having with customers on bidding activity and making sure that they understand how price is going to flow through the system and how they need to order product. And quite frankly, as you look at our location base, again, we're managing working capital well, growing inventory but also offsetting that with good management of accounts receivable and payables.

And so even as we're growing inventory, the biggest concern that we have right now is just making sure that we have ample supply chain space inside of our location base so that we can operate in a safe environment while making sure that we've got product accessible for the customer. So long answer to a short question, we see customers gravitating towards that strength. We think it will serve us well as we go through. But there are pressure points on certain product categories that have an opportunity to play out as we go through the next couple of quarters.

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. So I'll hand back to the management team for any closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you very much, and thank you for your time today. Very much appreciate it.

We're really pleased, as we've indicated, with the delivery from the company. We are -- we couldn't be more thankful for our associates across the organization and their ability to balance personal and professional challenges to really deliver for our customers. And as we go through the next 2 quarters and we find our way, fighting through the remnants of the pandemic, keeping our associates and our customers safe while making sure we fulfill our essential role in the supply chain is of the utmost important.

So thank you very much for your time today. And look forward to seeing you soon.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.