費利浦·麥克莫蘭銅金 (FCX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan Third Quarter Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Freeport-McMoRan 第三季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Kathleen Quirk, President. Please go ahead, ma'am.

我現在想將會議轉交給總裁 Kathleen Quirk 女士。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan conference call. Earlier this morning, we reported third quarter 2022 operating and financial results, and a copy of today's press release and slides are available on our website at fcx.com.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎參加 Freeport-McMoRan 電話會議。今天早上早些時候，我們報告了 2022 年第三季度的運營和財務業績，今天的新聞稿和幻燈片的副本可在我們的網站 fcx.com 上找到。

Our call today is being broadcast live on the Internet, and anyone may listen to the call by accessing our website homepage and clicking on the webcast link for the conference call. In addition to analysts and investors, the financial press has also been invited to listen to today's call, and a replay of the webcast will be available on our website later today.

我們今天的電話會議正在互聯網上進行現場直播，任何人都可以通過訪問我們的網站主頁並單擊電話會議的網絡直播鏈接來收聽電話會議。除了分析師和投資者外，財經媒體也受邀收聽今天的電話會議，今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上重播網絡直播。

Before we begin our comments, I'd like to remind everyone that today's press release and certain of our comments on the call include forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially. I'd like to refer everyone to the cautionary language included in our press release and presentation materials and to the risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC.

在我們開始發表評論之前，我想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿和我們對電話會議的某些評論包括前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能存在重大差異。我想向大家推薦我們的新聞稿和演示材料中包含的警示性語言，以及我們提交給 SEC 的 10-K 表格年度報告中描述的風險因素。

On the call today with me are Richard Adkerson, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Maree Robertson, our CFO, is on the line; Josh Olmsted, who heads our Americas operations is on the line; Mark Johnson, who heads our Indonesian business is on the line; Rick Coleman is on the line, who have helped us with projects and construction; Cory Stevens is on the line, who is spearheading our engineering and technical services groups, including the leaching initiatives; and Mike Kendrick is on who runs our molybdenum business. We also have Steve Higgins, our Chief Administrative Officer.

今天與我通話的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Richard Adkerson；我們的首席財務官 Maree Robertson 已上線；負責我們美洲業務的喬什·奧姆斯特德（Josh Olmsted）已上線；我們印尼業務負責人馬克·約翰遜（Mark Johnson）已上線； Rick Coleman 上線，他幫助我們進行項目和建設； Cory Stevens 即將上線，他負責領導我們的工程和技術服務團隊，包括浸出計劃； Mike Kendrick 正在討論誰經營我們的鉬業務。我們還有首席行政官 Steve Higgins。

Richard is going to make a few opening remarks, and then we'll turn to our presentation slide materials and go through that, and then open up the call for questions.

Richard 將做一些開場白，然後我們將轉向我們的演示幻燈片材料並仔細閱讀，然後開始提問。

And so now I'd like to turn the call over to Richard for his opening comments.

所以現在我想把電話轉給 Richard，聽取他的開場評論。

Thank you, Kathleen, and we really appreciate each of you joining our call today. I'm just going to make brief comments about how our company is positioned in the current market and for what we believe will be a very bright future for the copper business as we go forward.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳，我們非常感謝你們今天加入我們的電話會議。我將簡要介紹一下我們公司在當前市場中的定位，以及我們認為隨著我們前進的步伐，銅業務將擁有非常光明的未來。

As we talked about on our last call, it remains a world of 2 cities. The macroeconomic sentiment continues to be weak, and you all see that in your everyday lives. On the other hand, the fundamental physical copper market is strikingly tight globally right now. The macroeconomic situation is driven by the strength of the U.S. dollar, the Fed and central banks tightening, concerns about China dealing with COVID in this property section and then the serious problems in Europe coming out of the Ukraine situation and how that's affecting energy prices and economic outlook.

正如我們在上次通話中談到的那樣，它仍然是一個由 2 個城市組成的世界。宏觀經濟情緒繼續疲軟，你們都在日常生活中看到了這一點。另一方面，目前全球基本的實物銅市場異常緊張。宏觀經濟形勢是由美元走強、美聯儲和央行收緊政策、對中國在房地產領域應對 COVID 的擔憂以及烏克蘭局勢引發的歐洲嚴重問題以及這如何影響能源價格和經濟前景。

All those things are realities we have to face up with, but we continue to work to position our company to deal with these situations. We now have a very strong financial situation that allows us to do that effectively, and we are increasingly confident about the outlook and position of the copper markets and where Freeport is positioned to take advantage of that. And our confidence continues to grow.

所有這些都是我們必鬚麵對的現實，但我們將繼續努力定位我們的公司以應對這些情況。我們現在擁有非常強勁的財務狀況，使我們能夠有效地做到這一點，我們對銅市場的前景和地位以及自由港在哪裡可以利用這一點越來越有信心。我們的信心繼續增長。

Global copper inventories remain at historical levels. You see production reports from producers across the globe reporting challenges in meeting their production targets and the industry is facing increasingly challenges in developing new supplies. In the current environment, stretch supply chains, production shortfalls are becoming commonplace and cost curves are rising.

全球銅庫存維持在歷史水平。您會看到來自全球生產商的生產報告報告在實現其生產目標方面面臨的挑戰，並且該行業在開發新供應品方面面臨越來越多的挑戰。在當前環境下，供應鏈延伸、生產短缺正變得司空見慣，成本曲線正在上升。

We, at Freeport, are realistic about the potential for weaker global GDP. We prepared our business and taken steps and have plans for further steps to take, depending on the near-term steps as what occurs. We have an old saying around Freeport, we don't wring our hands, we roll up our sleeves.

在自由港，我們對全球 GDP 疲軟的可能性持現實態度。我們準備了我們的業務並採取了措施，併計劃採取進一步的措施，具體取決於發生的近期措施。我們在自由港有一句老話，我們不絞盡腦汁，我們捲起袖子。

The positive thing is that new sources of copper demand are emerging now and there is widespread recognition that copper demand will be significantly benefited by the ongoing global electrification around the world, investments to reduce carbon, they're beginning to accelerate, and this is going to occur more rapidly in the future and it's going to be a big impact on copper demand.

積極的一面是，新的銅需求來源正在出現，人們普遍認為銅需求將受益於全球正在進行的全球電氣化、減少碳排放的投資，它們開始加速，而且這種情況正在發生未來會以更快的速度發生，這將對銅需求產生重大影響。

To meet that demand, the energy transition will require a massive amount of copper and other steps to deal with it. Higher prices will be required to bring on new supplies, much higher prices than we have now, simply because the current price is not sufficient to incent new supply development on the scale that will be required to meet this increasing demand.

為了滿足這一需求，能源轉型將需要大量的銅和其他步驟來處理它。需要更高的價格才能帶來新的供應，比我們現在的價格要高得多，僅僅是因為目前的價格不足以刺激新的供應發展，以滿足不斷增長的需求所需的規模。

I'm real proud of our Freeport's global team. We are focused on executing our plans effectively and focused on managing what we can control and not getting distracted by things we cannot control. I want to particularly highlight our Grasberg team for the great results they achieved this quarter and the ongoing success our team is achieving in ramping up the large-scale, low-cost underground operations in Indonesia.

我為我們自由港的全球團隊感到非常自豪。我們專注於有效執行我們的計劃，專注於管理我們可以控制的事情，而不是被我們無法控制的事情分心。我想特別強調我們的 Grasberg 團隊，因為他們在本季度取得了巨大的成果，以及我們的團隊在擴大印度尼西亞的大規模、低成本地下運營方面取得的持續成功。

Just 3 years ago, we were completing mining the open pit, and what this team has achieved despite the challenges of COVID is truly remarkable. I was pleased to visit our site in Papua during this past quarter and had the pleasure, along with our team, of showcasing what we've accomplished during a visit by Indonesia's President, Joko Widodo. He was the first President of Indonesia to visit our job sites and Suharto did in the early '70s when production there commenced, and it was truly a pleasure to be able to show him what we've accomplished, what we are accomplishing in the underground and to point out our workforce there where 98% of our employees are Papuans -- are Indonesians and over 40% of Papuans.

就在 3 年前，我們正在完成露天礦的開採，儘管面臨 COVID 的挑戰，這個團隊所取得的成就確實非常了不起。我很高興在上個季度訪問了我們在巴布亞的工廠，並有幸與我們的團隊一起展示了我們在印度尼西亞總統 Joko Widodo 訪問期間所取得的成就。他是第一位訪問我們工作現場的印度尼西亞總統，蘇哈託在 70 年代初在那裡開始生產時也曾訪問過，能夠向他展示我們已經取得的成就，我們在地下取得的成就，真的很高興並指出我們在那裡的員工隊伍，我們 98% 的員工是巴布亞人——是印度尼西亞人和超過 40% 的巴布亞人。

It's really noteworthy that he was there. He expressed a lot of positive comments about it. For me, it was something that was really special since I've been going there for over 3 decades and to be able to review it with him. As a follow-up, he asked me to accompany his Minister of Investment on a roadshow-type tour of 6 universities -- 7 universities in Indonesia and they estimate there was 10,000 students and faculty at these sessions as well as it was streamlined to many more. That was a special time for me and for our company, and it just illustrates the much improved partnership we have now with the government of Indonesia and the President and his Ministers.

值得注意的是，他在那裡。他對此發表了很多積極的評論。對我來說，這是一件非常特別的事情，因為我已經去那裡 3 多年了，並且能夠和他一起回顧它。作為後續行動，他讓我陪同他的投資部長對 6 所大學進行了路演式的巡迴演出——印度尼西亞的 7 所大學，他們估計有 10,000 名學生和教師參加了這些會議，並且精簡了許多更多的。對我和我們公司來說，那是一個特殊的時刻，它只是說明了我們現在與印度尼西亞政府、總統和他的部長們之間的伙伴關係得到了很大改善。

I just want to close by saying just to reemphasize how I believe we are well positioned at Freeport to be a global leader in the copper business. We have long-lived reserves, large-scale global operations, established track record of managing responsibly the development and operation of among the largest mines in the world. We've got a great team that's been experienced and stuck together through all the things we faced. And so I'm just very pleased about that. We're going to take steps to create value for this company over time. You'll hear today about the exciting work we're doing with leaching technology that can add values in a low-cost carbon-friendly way.

最後，我只想再次強調我相信我們在自由港是如何成為銅業務的全球領導者的。我們擁有長期的儲量、大規模的全球業務，並建立了負責任地管理世界上最大礦山的開發和運營的記錄。我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們經驗豐富，並且在我們面臨的所有事情中都團結在一起。所以我對此感到非常高興。隨著時間的推移，我們將採取措施為這家公司創造價值。您今天將聽到我們正在使用浸出技術所做的激動人心的工作，該技術可以以低成本的碳友好方式增加價值。

We've got large-scale brownfield development projects ahead of us, and we're going to use technology -- continue to use technology to help us operate efficiently and create value.

我們前面有大規模的棕地開發項目，我們將使用技術——繼續使用技術來幫助我們高效運營並創造價值。

So with that, I want to turn the call over to Kathleen, who will review the quarter and our outlook, and then I'll look forward to your questions.

因此，我想將電話轉給凱瑟琳，她將審查本季度和我們的前景，然後我會期待您的問題。

Thank you, Richard, and we'll start on Slide 3 with a summary of the quarter's highlights.

謝謝你，理查德，我們將從幻燈片 3 開始，概述本季度的亮點。

As you've seen, we achieved strong production and sales performance in the quarter. And as Richard mentioned, we're continuing our focus on effective execution of our plans in a challenging environment. Sales volumes for copper were 3% higher than last year's third quarter, and 4% higher than our guidance going into the quarter. Our gold sales were above the year ago quarter by 19% and 20% above our July guidance, and that reflects the very strong performance at Grasberg during the quarter.

如您所見，我們在本季度取得了強勁的生產和銷售業績。正如理查德所說，我們將繼續專注於在充滿挑戰的環境中有效執行我們的計劃。銅的銷量比去年第三季度高出 3%，比我們進入該季度的預期高出 4%。我們的黃金銷售額比去年同期高出 19%，比我們 7 月份的指導高出 20%，這反映了 Grasberg 本季度的強勁表現。

From a cash cost standpoint, our consolidated average unit net cash cost were $1.75 in the quarter, they averaged $1.75, and that was about 5% above our estimates going into the quarter. As Richard referenced, cost pressures continue to be a significant issue for our operations and really across the global mining industry.

從現金成本的角度來看，我們本季度的綜合平均單位淨現金成本為 1.75 美元，平均為 1.75 美元，這比我們對該季度的預期高出約 5%。正如 Richard 所提到的，成本壓力對於我們的運營以及整個全球採礦業來說仍然是一個重大問題。

In the current market, many of our input costs are above historical correlations to the copper price. We can't predict how long this dislocation will occur, but based on history, we typically see a high correlation of many of our input costs with the price of copper. As Richard mentioned, we're going to continue to focus on those areas of cost and efficiencies that we can control to help mitigate these cost increases.

在當前市場上，我們的許多投入成本都高於與銅價的歷史相關性。我們無法預測這種錯位會發生多長時間，但根據歷史，我們通常會看到我們的許多投入成本與銅價高度相關。正如理查德所說，我們將繼續關注那些我們可以控制的成本和效率領域，以幫助緩解這些成本增加。

Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $1.5 billion. This was net of $228 million reduction associated with copper sales that were provisionally priced at the end of June at $3.75 per pound, which remains subject to final settlement. The decline in copper prices during the quarter resulted in this negative adjustment. We've got a reconciliation of the EBITDA calculations on Page 31 of the slide deck.

本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 15 億美元。這扣除了與銅銷售相關的 2.28 億美元的淨額，該銅銷售在 6 月底臨時定價為每磅 3.75 美元，但仍有待最終結算。本季度銅價的下跌導致了這一負面調整。我們在幻燈片的第 31 頁上對 EBITDA 計算進行了核對。

Adjusted net income for the quarter was $375 million. That excludes $0.02 in nonrecurring gains that are detailed on Roman numeral Page 7 of our earnings release. So $375 million or $0.26 per share in the third quarter of adjusted net income. Operating cash flows of roughly $800 million in the quarter approximated our capital expenditures. Our capital spending during the quarter included $400 million for major projects, principally associated with our Grasberg underground projects and $200 million to advance construction on the Indonesian smelter.

本季度調整後的淨收入為 3.75 億美元。這不包括 0.02 美元的非經常性收益，詳見我們收益發布的羅馬數字第 7 頁。因此，第三季度調整後的淨收入為 3.75 億美元或每股 0.26 美元。本季度約 8 億美元的運營現金流接近我們的資本支出。我們在本季度的資本支出包括用於主要項目的 4 億美元，主要與我們的 Grasberg 地下項目相關，以及用於推進印尼冶煉廠建設的 2 億美元。

During the quarter, we continued opportunistic purchases of our public debt securities in open market. So far, in 2022, we have purchased approximately $1.1 billion of our notes at a discount to par, including $400 million in principal amount in the third quarter. The market conditions in recent months have provided a great opportunity for us to reduce our absolute debt levels at attractive prices, and these purchases generate approximately $50 million per annum in interest cost savings.

在本季度，我們繼續在公開市場上投機購買我們的公共債務證券。到目前為止，到 2022 年，我們以面值折價購買了大約 11 億美元的票據，其中包括第三季度的 4 億美元本金。最近幾個月的市場狀況為我們提供了以有吸引力的價格降低絕對債務水平的絕佳機會，這些購買每年可節省約 5000 萬美元的利息成本。

We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet. We've got a large cash balance and significant liquidity. We ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in net debt, excluding the $800 million in net debt associated with the Indonesian smelter. That's well below our targeted net debt range of $3 billion to $4 billion.

我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表。我們有大量現金餘額和大量流動性。我們在本季度末的淨債務為 13 億美元，不包括與印度尼西亞冶煉廠相關的 8 億美元淨債務。這遠低於我們 30 億至 40 億美元的目標淨債務範圍。

The authorization under our share purchase program remains at $3.2 billion. Since reaching our net debt target in the range of $3 billion to $4 billion in the middle of last year, we've used over 50% of our free cash flow for shareholder returns. That totaled $2.7 billion in share purchases and dividends over that period. We did not purchase shares since mid-July, and that reflects our priorities on our balance sheet and our policy of using excess cash flows for shareholder returns, and the timing of our future purchases will be dependent on our cash flows and overall market conditions.

我們的股票購買計劃的授權仍為 32 億美元。自去年年中達到 30 億至 40 億美元的淨債務目標以來，我們已將超過 50% 的自由現金流用於股東回報。在此期間，總計 27 億美元的股票購買和股息。自 7 月中旬以來，我們沒有購買股票，這反映了我們在資產負債表上的優先事項以及我們使用超額現金流為股東回報的政策，我們未來購買的時間將取決於我們的現金流和整體市場狀況。

I want to point out that we recently published our updated annual Climate Report that's available on our website. The report includes an update on our progress to improve our energy efficiency and integrate lower carbon alternatives into our operations, and we're making great strides in that area.

我想指出，我們最近發布了更新後的年度氣候報告，該報告可在我們的網站上找到。該報告更新了我們在提高能源效率和將低碳替代品納入我們的運營方面取得的進展，我們在該領域取得了長足的進步。

As Richard talked about, and we talked about on our July call, we commented on the magnitude of the sharp decline in copper prices that we experienced in recent months. We benefit from having the balance sheet, the asset quality and experience to successfully manage the volume [on certain] market environment. And despite the recent weakness, we remain confident in our strategy centered on being foremost in copper. We're positive about the strong future fundamentals for copper and the strength of our assets and team to increase value for stakeholders.

正如理查德所說，我們在 7 月的電話會議上談到，我們評論了我們最近幾個月經歷的銅價大幅下跌的幅度。我們受益於擁有資產負債表、資產質量和成功管理[在某些]市場環境下的交易量的經驗。儘管近期疲軟，我們仍然對我們以銅為主的戰略充滿信心。我們對銅的強勁未來基本面以及我們的資產和團隊為利益相關者增加價值的實力持樂觀態度。

I'll move to Slide 4, which is a graph of the year-to-date copper prices. We discussed on our last earnings call that the price move appeared to be anticipatory and financially driven by global macroeconomic conditions. This backdrop continues to be challenged by rising interest rates to tame inflation, concerns about Chinese economic growth and pressures in Europe associated with energy and geopolitical turmoil.

我將轉到幻燈片 4，這是今年迄今為止的銅價圖表。我們在上次財報電話會議上討論過，價格走勢似乎是可預見的，並且受全球宏觀經濟狀況的財務驅動。這一背景繼續受到提高利率以抑制通脹、對中國經濟增長的擔憂以及與能源和地緣政治動盪相關的歐洲壓力的挑戰。

We also indicated on our last call that markets remain strong, physical markets remain strong for copper. Our customers are reporting solid orders, physical market was tight as evidenced by low levels of inventories. The situation is much the same today. Copper demand remains healthy. The industry continues to struggle to meet production targets and inventories remain low by historical levels.

我們還在上次電話會議上表示，市場依然強勁，銅的實物市場依然強勁。我們的客戶報告訂單穩定，現貨市場緊張，庫存水平低就是明證。今天的情況也差不多。銅需求保持健康。該行業繼續努力實現生產目標，庫存仍處於歷史低位。

And as we look forward, we see copper demand that will benefit from the substantial requirements for metals required for electrification and the energy transition. This new demand is emerging and is driven by secular trends rather than economic cycles. The industry does not have a current pipeline to meet this demand and the recent weakness in copper prices will only make this development more difficult.

展望未來，我們看到銅需求將受益於電氣化和能源轉型所需的大量金屬需求。這種新的需求正在出現，並且是由長期趨勢而非經濟周期驅動的。該行業目前沒有滿足這一需求的渠道，而近期銅價的疲軟只會使這一發展更加困難。

Richard talked about we're realistic about the current macro conditions creating uncertainties, but we do have strong conviction about the long-term fundamentals for the copper markets, and we expect to start seeing, as we go through this period of increased demand from decarbonization, large gaps -- supply-demand gaps emerging in the copper market.

理查德談到，我們對當前造成不確定性的宏觀條件持現實態度，但我們確實對銅市場的長期基本面有堅定的信念，並且隨著我們經歷脫碳需求增加的時期，我們預計會開始看到，大缺口——銅市場出現的供需缺口。

On Slide 5, we'll turn to operations, and you'll see we present here a summary of our sales by region for the third quarter. And I'll just go through around the globe how our teams are doing.

在幻燈片 5 上，我們將轉向運營，您會看到我們在此處展示了我們第三季度按地區劃分的銷售額摘要。我將在全球範圍內介紹我們團隊的工作方式。

Starting with the U.S., our teams are focused on meeting our production targets safely and efficiently and overcoming challenges with limitations on available labor. We're ramping up the Safford mine, we're ramping up mining rates in the U.S. and we're aggressively pursuing leach production and continuing to study the possible expansion of the Bagdad mine in Northwest Arizona.

從美國開始，我們的團隊專注於安全有效地實現我們的生產目標，並克服可用勞動力有限的挑戰。我們正在提高 Safford 礦的產能，我們正在提高美國的採礦率，我們正在積極尋求浸出生產，並繼續研究可能擴大亞利桑那州西北部的 Bagdad 礦。

Moving to South America, our team at Cerro Verde in Peru continues to execute very effectively and produced at an average of over 400,000 tons of ore per day through the concentrator during the quarter. We faced some challenges during the quarter with byproduct molybdenum productions, and that impacted net unit cash cost. The team is doing great work to overcome this challenge as we look forward into the fourth quarter and beyond. And we're particularly proud of the exceptional work Cerro Verde does in the community, and that provides a sustainable model for the operations.

搬到南美後，我們在秘魯 Cerro Verde 的團隊繼續非常有效地執行任務，本季度通過選礦廠平均每天生產超過 400,000 噸礦石。本季度我們在副產品鉬生產方面面臨一些挑戰，這影響了淨單位現金成本。隨著我們對第四季度及以後的展望，團隊正在努力克服這一挑戰。我們為 Cerro Verde 在社區所做的傑出工作感到特別自豪，這為運營提供了可持續的模式。

At El Abra, we're continuing to optimize the existing operation, while we consider the larger expansion options in the future.

在 El Abra，我們將繼續優化現有運營，同時考慮未來更大的擴展選項。

Richard talked about Grasberg. We benefited from continued outstanding execution of the plans that allowed us to exceed our third quarter sales guidance with strong production results in the quarter, higher than forecast grades and an exceptional loading and shipping performance. The team loaded and shipped all of its third quarter production and available concentrate inventories during the period. We're also continuing to advance several projects at the site related to our mill -- our work to add a new mill circuit, working on power infrastructure. We're continuing to advance the development of Kucing Liar and we're progressing with construction of the new smelter in Eastern Java, with a targeted completion of that project in 2024.

理查德談到了格拉斯伯格。我們受益於計劃的持續出色執行，使我們超越了第三季度的銷售指導，本季度的生產業績強勁，高於預期等級以及出色的裝載和運輸性能。該團隊在此期間裝載並運送了所有第三季度的生產和可用精礦庫存。我們還在繼續推進與我們的工廠相關的幾個項目——我們的工作是增加一個新的工廠電路，致力於電力基礎設施。我們正在繼續推進 Kucing Liar 的開發，我們正在東爪哇建設新冶煉廠，目標是在 2024 年完成該項目。

We show unit costs at the bottom of the slide on a consolidated basis. As I mentioned, the costs in the third quarter were about 5% above our guidance. That mainly, on a consolidated basis, was associated with higher maintenance and the increased cost of supplies.

我們在幻燈片底部綜合顯示單位成本。正如我所提到的，第三季度的成本比我們的指導高出約 5%。綜合來看，這主要與維護費用增加和供應成本增加有關。

Breaking it down by region, the U.S. was challenged with higher maintenance, supplies and labor. In South America, the variance to our expectations related to lower molybdenum by-product credits, and Grasberg was in line with our prior estimate, but they were offsetting variances. Higher maintenance costs and supply costs were offset by stronger gold byproduct credits in the quarter.

按地區劃分，美國面臨著更高的維護、供應和勞動力的挑戰。在南美，與我們預期的差異與較低的鉬副產品信用有關，Grasberg 與我們之前的估計一致，但它們抵消了差異。本季度較高的黃金副產品信貸抵消了較高的維護成本和供應成本。

We've adjusted our annual cost guidance for 2022 to average $1.55 per pound. That compares with the previous estimate of $1.50 per pound, and we've got a reconciliation provided in the reference materials on Slide 22.

我們已將 2022 年的年度成本指導調整為平均每磅 1.55 美元。這與之前估計的每磅 1.50 美元相比，我們在幻燈片 22 的參考資料中提供了對賬。

On Slide 6, we wanted to highlight the progress at Grasberg that Richard referred to. Since reaching the targeted run rate in the second half of last year, the team at Grasberg has just done a great job demonstrating sustained large-scale production for several quarters now.

在幻燈片 6 上，我們想強調 Richard 提到的 Grasberg 的進展。自去年下半年達到目標運行率以來，Grasberg 的團隊剛剛在幾個季度內展示了持續大規模生產的出色工作。

We benefit from our industry-leading expertise in block caving and we're effectively managing the largest underground mining complex in the world. This is a major accomplishment, not only for our company, but in the history of the global mining industry. The resource at this site where we've been operating for over 5 decades is significant. And with the success of this project, we're engaged in discussions regarding an extension of our operating rights beyond our current 2041 time frame.

我們受益於我們在塊狀崩落方面的行業領先專業知識，並且我們正在有效地管理世界上最大的地下採礦綜合體。這不僅是我們公司的重大成就，也是全球採礦業歷史上的一項重大成就。我們已經運營了超過 5 年的這個站點的資源非常重要。隨著這個項目的成功，我們正在討論將我們的經營權擴展到我們目前的 2041 年時間框架之外。

Richard talked about earlier, we've got some pictures from the visit on the slide. We were honored in late August to host Indonesia's President at the Grasberg site. He toured the site extensively. He visited the former surface mine, had an in-depth tour of the underground and actively engaged with our team. He expressed great pride over what has been achieved technically and for the people of Papua in the country. It was really a happy time, special time for our entire team who's worked so hard over the years to make this project such a success.

理查德早些時候談到，我們在幻燈片上獲得了一些訪問的照片。我們很榮幸在 8 月下旬在格拉斯伯格遺址接待了印度尼西亞總統。他廣泛地參觀了該網站。他參觀了以前的露天礦，深入參觀了地下，並與我們的團隊積極互動。他對在技術上取得的成就以及為巴布亞人民在該國取得的成就感到非常自豪。這真的是一段快樂的時光，對於我們整個團隊來說是一段特別的時光，他們多年來為使這個項目如此成功而努力工作。

Another exciting area that we wanted to talk more about today on Slide 7 is our leach innovation initiatives. This is really focused in the Americas and our drive for capturing higher recoveries from leach stockpiles is gaining a lot of momentum. The economics of this opportunity are extremely attractive, very low capital intensity, low incremental operating costs, low carbon footprint, the lowest cost copper units in our Americas portfolio, and the carbon intensity is low because the mining costs have already been incurred. And so essentially, we're doing here is extracting more copper from what historically would be considered waste.

我們今天想在幻燈片 7 上詳細討論的另一個令人興奮的領域是我們的浸出創新計劃。這真的集中在美洲，我們從浸出庫存中獲得更高回收率的動力正在獲得很大的動力。這個機會的經濟性極具吸引力，資本密集度非常低，增量運營成本低，碳足跡低，是我們美洲投資組合中成本最低的銅單元，並且碳強度低，因為已經產生了採礦成本。所以本質上，我們在這裡所做的是從歷史上被認為是廢物的東西中提取更多的銅。

We're using new data analytics capabilities and those are providing valuable information to guide us and prioritize our work on the highest value. We're continuing efforts to retain heat in the stockpile. We're moving forward to apply covers to our leach stockpiles because the retention of heat within the stockpiles is proving to enhance recoveries. We're also applying solution to new areas that were not pursued historically. And we continue to test various additives that can further enhance recoveries.

我們正在使用新的數據分析功能，這些功能正在提供有價值的信息來指導我們並優先考慮我們的工作以實現最高價值。我們正在繼續努力保持庫存中的熱量。我們正在向前推進，對我們的浸出庫存進行覆蓋，因為事實證明，庫存內的熱量保留可以提高回收率。我們還將解決方案應用於歷史上未開發的新領域。我們繼續測試可以進一步提高回收率的各種添加劑。

The progress to date and early results are leading us to a target run rate of 200 million pounds by the end of next year, and that is at the top end of what we were -- our prior thinking was 100 million to 200 million pounds. Success at this level would give us a road map to scale larger, and that's what we're focused on. And we're really taking advantage of the long history we have in leaching significant stockpile material, the availability of new technologies that weren't available in the past and we're in a really strong position to lead the innovation in this area.

迄今為止的進展和早期結果使我們在明年年底前達到 2 億磅的目標運行速度，這是我們的最高水平——我們之前的想法是 1 億到 2 億磅。在這個級別上的成功將為我們提供擴大規模的路線圖，這就是我們關注的重點。我們真的在利用我們在浸出大量庫存材料方面的悠久歷史，以及過去無法獲得的新技術的可用性，我們在引領這一領域的創新方面處於非常有利的地位。

We're managing this project and this initiative as we would a major project. And when we think about it, it's similar to a -- it has similar production to what we would look at, at a project within the U.S. to add concentrators, but we don't have the capital associated with it and the operating costs are very low. So we're allocating a meaningful amount of significant expertise and technical resources and are aggressively pursuing this opportunity.

我們正在管理這個項目和這個倡議，就像我們管理一個重大項目一樣。當我們考慮它時，它類似於 - 它的產量與我們所看到的相似，在美國的一個項目中增加了選礦廠，但我們沒有與之相關的資金，運營成本是非常低。因此，我們正在分配大量重要的專業知識和技術資源，並積極尋求這一機會。

I'm going to move to Slide 8, which provides a 3-year outlook for our sales volumes. As you'll see, the 2022 volumes are very similar for copper, 4.2 billion pounds of copper for 2022. Gold sales are about 5% higher than our prior estimate for the year. And that reflects the (inaudible).

我將轉到幻燈片 8，它為我們的銷量提供了 3 年的展望。如您所見，2022 年的銅銷量非常相似，2022 年為 42 億磅銅。黃金銷量比我們之前的預測高出約 5%。這反映了（聽不清）。

The sales mix for 2022 is roughly 35% coming from the U.S., 28% from South America and 37% from Grasberg. You'll note that our 2023 copper sales guidance have been adjusted. They're lower by about 150 million pounds from our prior estimate. That's roughly 3%. About half of this is a timing matter and does not represent a production shortfall. And this goes to a change in the commercial agreement of our arrangement with PT Smelting, the existing smelter in Indonesia, which we own a 40% interest in currently. That commercial arrangement is converting in 2023 to a -- from a purchase and sale agreement to a tolling agreement. And so PT-FI's production, a portion will be deferred in inventory until final sale, but it does not represent a production shortfall. And in fact, PT-FI's production is going very well in line with expectations.

2022 年的銷售組合約為 35% 來自美國，28% 來自南美，37% 來自格拉斯伯格。您會注意到我們的 2023 年銅銷售指導已經調整。它們比我們之前的估計低了大約 1.5 億磅。這大約是 3%。其中大約一半是時間問題，並不代表產量不足。這將改變我們與印度尼西亞現有冶煉廠 PT Smelting 的商業協議，我們目前擁有 40% 的權益。該商業安排將在 2023 年從買賣協議轉變為收費協議。所以PT-FI的生產，一部分會在庫存中推遲到最終銷售，但這並不代表生產不足。事實上，PT-FI 的生產進展非常順利，符合預期。

The balance of this change is associated with updated mine plans in the Americas, and that includes the impact of anticipated lower grades than we were previously forecasting for 2023 at Cerro Verde. The rest of the guidance is pretty similar to what we were guiding to last quarter.

這一變化的平衡與美洲更新的礦山計劃有關，其中包括預期品位低於我們之前在 Cerro Verde 預測的 2023 年的影響。其餘的指導與我們上個季度的指導非常相似。

And we're going to move to cash flows on Slide 9, and you've seen these charts before. As a leading producer of copper, our earnings and cash flows have significant leverage to the price of copper. And we show modeled results for our EBITDA and cash flow at various prices and with the current cost structure of the business, which, as we've talked about, has increased in recent quarters.

我們將在幻燈片 9 上轉向現金流，您之前已經看過這些圖表。作為領先的銅生產商，我們的收益和現金流對銅價具有重大影響。我們展示了不同價格的 EBITDA 和現金流的模擬結果，以及當前業務成本結構，正如我們所討論的，最近幾個季度有所增加。

We've shown a broad range of prices ranging from $3 per pound to $5 per pound. Just recall -- remind everyone in the first half of this year, prices averaged nearly $4.50 a pound, and we're approaching $5 a pound earlier in the year. We don't believe the current copper price is sustainable long term given the cost structure of the industry, the need for new supply development in the future.

我們展示的價格範圍很廣，從每磅 3 美元到每磅 5 美元不等。回想一下——在今年上半年提醒大家，平均價格接近每磅 4.50 美元，而今年早些時候我們接近每磅 5 美元。鑑於該行業的成本結構以及未來新供應發展的需要，我們認為當前的銅價長期不可持續。

Modeled results using the average of '23 and '24 with the current volume and cost estimates, holding gold flat at $1,700 per ounce and molybdenum flat at $18 per pound, our annual EBITDA would range from roughly $6 billion per year at $3 copper to over $14 billion per year at $5 copper. And our operating cash flows net of all of our taxes would range from $4 billion per year, $3 copper, to $11 billion at $5 copper. So a lot of leverage to the price of copper.

使用 '23 和 '24 的平均值以及當前的數量和成本估算來模擬結果，將黃金持平在每盎司 1,700 美元，鉬持平在每磅 18 美元，我們的年度 EBITDA 將在每年約 60 億美元（銅 3 美元）到超過每年 140 億美元，銅價 5 美元。扣除所有稅項後，我們的經營現金流量將從每年 40 億美元（銅 3 美元）到 110 億美元（銅 5 美元）不等。因此對銅價產生了很大的影響。

We show sensitivities to the various commodities on the right. As Richard talked about, we're prepared to manage in a low price environment, while retaining optionality for what we believe will be a much more positive situation as we go forward. And we've got this long-lived asset base that will prove to be valuable given the compelling fundamental outlook.

我們對右邊的各種商品表現出敏感性。正如理查德所說，我們準備好在低價環境中進行管理，同時保留我們認為隨著我們前進的情況將更加積極的選擇權。鑑於令人信服的基本面前景，我們擁有這個長期存在的資產基礎，這將被證明是有價值的。

Looking at our capital expenditures on Slide 10. You can see that we've reduced the 2022 capital forecast by $400 million, drawn from $3.1 billion in our prior forecast to the $2.7 billion in the current forecast. About half of that has shifted into 2023. As we've talked about all year, we've been spending capital at a slower pace than our original plans. This has something to do with just the supply chain and labor and other things that have -- that deferred the projects. But we're continuing to prioritize the critical projects. We're going to continue to evaluate opportunities as we look at our capital spending plans in the context of the market environment to defer spending when it makes sense.

查看幻燈片 10 上的資本支出。您可以看到，我們已將 2022 年的資本預測降低了 4 億美元，從之前預測的 31 億美元降至當前預測的 27 億美元。其中大約一半已經轉移到 2023 年。正如我們一整年都在談論的那樣，我們的資本支出速度一直低於我們最初的計劃。這與供應鍊和勞動力以及其他推遲項目有關的因素有關。但我們將繼續優先考慮關鍵項目。我們將繼續評估機會，因為我們在市場環境的背景下審視我們的資本支出計劃，以便在合理的情況下推遲支出。

We have a lot of flexibility with our plans, and we benefit from the fact that the major investments required for the Grasberg transition are largely behind us. These amounts exclude capital for the Indonesian smelter project. That project is being funded with cash from a bond offering that we raised earlier in the year. There's some details on this project and its progress in the reference materials on Slides 27 and 28. Construction is moving forward. We're working to complete the project as early as we can. We currently expect to complete it in 2024. And to date, we've invested about $800 million in this project.

我們的計劃有很大的靈活性，我們受益於 Grasberg 過渡所需的主要投資已基本落後的事實。這些金額不包括印度尼西亞冶煉廠項目的資金。該項目的資金來自我們今年早些時候籌集的債券發行的現金。在幻燈片 27 和 28 的參考資料中有關於這個項目的一些細節及其進展。建設正在向前推進。我們正在努力盡快完成這個項目。我們目前預計將在 2024 年完成。迄今為止，我們已在該項目上投資約 8 億美元。

We will talk for a minute about the financial policy and our strong balance sheet. Going to the balance sheet, it's really the cornerstone of our financial policy. The steps we've taken in the past placed us in an exceptionally strong position, particularly in the context of the current market weakness. We don't have a need to raise new capital for the foreseeable future. Essentially, all of our debt is fixed rate. We continued, as I mentioned, our opportunistic purchases of debt during the quarter and have repurchased over $1 billion in senior notes at attractive prices.

我們將討論一下金融政策和我們強大的資產負債表。進入資產負債表，這確實是我們金融政策的基石。我們過去採取的措施使我們處於非常有利的地位，尤其是在當前市場疲軟的情況下。在可預見的未來，我們不需要籌集新資金。從本質上講，我們所有的債務都是固定利率的。正如我所提到的，我們在本季度繼續機會性地購買債務，並以有吸引力的價格回購了超過 10 億美元的優先票據。

The slide here shows our net debt at $2.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. That includes $800 million for the smelter. So when we look at our net debt compared to our target, it's $1.3 billion, which is below our net debt target of $3 billion to $4 billion. So that gives us some cushion. We've also got a very much cash balance of $8.6 billion, and that continues to provide significant liquidity for us.

此處的幻燈片顯示我們在第三季度末的淨債務為 21 億美元。其中包括冶煉廠的 8 億美元。因此，當我們將我們的淨債務與我們的目標相比時，它是 13 億美元，低於我們 30 億至 40 億美元的淨債務目標。所以這給了我們一些緩衝。我們還擁有 86 億美元的大量現金餘額，這將繼續為我們提供大量流動性。

As you'll see here, we have a very attractive debt maturity profile. We've got easily manageable maturities. We've taken steps to improve financial flexibility. We did some transactions to increase PT-FI's revolver. We did the same thing at Cerro Verde. And just this week, we completed the extension of our corporate revolver, which was previously planned to mature in '24. We've extended that to 2027.

正如您將在此處看到的，我們的債務到期情況非常有吸引力。我們擁有易於管理的到期日。我們已採取措施提高財務靈活性。我們做了一些交易來增加 PT-FI 的左輪手槍。我們在 Cerro Verde 做了同樣的事情。就在本週，我們完成了公司左輪手槍的擴展，之前計劃在 24 年成熟。我們已將其延長至 2027 年。

In closing, we're showing a scorecard on Slide 12 of the shareholder returns, which has been substantial since reaching our net debt targets last year. Just as a reminder, the financial policy provides for the distribution of 50% of our free cash flow and shareholder returns with a net debt target in the range of $3 billion to $4 billion, excluding the smelter debt.

最後，我們在幻燈片 12 上展示了股東回報的記分卡，自去年達到我們的淨債務目標以來，這一直是可觀的。提醒一下，財務政策規定分配我們 50% 的自由現金流和股東回報，淨債務目標在 30 億至 40 億美元之間，不包括冶煉廠債務。

We pay a base dividend and a variable dividend totaling $0.60 per share, and $0.30 per share of that is variable. We've used $1.8 billion of our $5 billion in share purchase authorization. Our variable dividend is continuing through 2022, and our Board will have the opportunity to review future dividends depending on performance. As I mentioned, we've returned $2.7 billion to shareholders. This represents over 50% of our free cash flow over this period, and we're well below our net debt targets.

我們支付每股 0.60 美元的基本股息和可變股息，其中每股 0.30 美元是可變的。我們已經使用了 50 億美元的股票購買授權中的 18 億美元。我們的可變股息將持續到 2022 年，我們的董事會將有機會根據業績審查未來的股息。正如我所提到的，我們已經向股東返還了 27 億美元。這占我們在此期間自由現金流的 50% 以上，並且遠低於我們的淨債務目標。

As I mentioned, we did not purchase shares since July '22, and that reflects just the priorities on the balance sheet, the impact of the sharp decline in copper prices on our cash flows. We're going to continue to prioritize our balance sheet. We believe that maintaining the balance sheet strength in various market condition is really important in our ability as we look forward to drive long-term returns for our shareholders.

正如我所提到的，我們自 22 年 7 月以來沒有購買股票，這僅反映了資產負債表上的優先事項，即銅價急劇下跌對我們現金流的影響。我們將繼續優先考慮我們的資產負債表。我們相信，在各種市場條件下保持資產負債表實力對我們的能力非常重要，因為我們期待為股東帶來長期回報。

We're focused on long-term value, focused on execution, doing this responsibly, safely, efficiently. In the near term, with respect to growth projects, we're going to continue to define our future options, but expect to defer new major investment decisions in the current market environment. We're convinced the world is going to need our projects in the future, and prices will need to move higher to incentivize the new project development.

我們專注於長期價值，專注於執行，以負責任、安全、高效的方式進行。在短期內，關於增長項目，我們將繼續定義我們未來的選擇，但預計在當前市場環境下推遲新的重大投資決策。我們相信，未來世界將需要我們的項目，價格將需要上漲以激勵新項目的開發。

Richard talked about the pipeline of options we have. We've got a lot of flexibility in terms of the timing of development of these options, particularly the expansive options we have for development of new supply in the U.S.

理查德談到了我們擁有的一系列選擇。在開發這些選項的時間方面，我們有很大的靈活性，特別是我們在美國開發新供應的廣泛選項。

In closing, we're optimistic about the value of our assets, the strength of our team, the fundamentals of the copper business and the future prospects for the markets we serve.

最後，我們對我們的資產價值、我們團隊的實力、銅業務的基本面以及我們所服務的市場的未來前景持樂觀態度。

I'll stop there and we'll -- operator, we'll open up the call for questions. Thanks, everyone, for your attention, and we look forward to your questions.

我會停下來，我們會——接線員，我們會打開電話提問。謝謝大家的關注，我們期待您的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

My question is just around the leaching technology. And understandably, it's a low CapEx opportunity there to continue to bring production growth. So I wanted to understand the guidance that you have of 200 million pounds per annum by year-end 2023. That's the run rate that you've targeted. Could you perhaps share what volumes you are seeing from leaching activities to date? And how should we be thinking about ramp profile to get there?

我的問題只是關於浸出技術。可以理解的是，繼續帶來產量增長的資本支出機會很低。因此，我想了解到 2023 年底，您每年擁有 2 億英鎊的指導。這就是您的目標運行率。您能否分享一下您迄今為止從浸出活動中看到的數量？我們應該如何考慮坡道剖面才能到達那裡？

Thanks, Emily. We have experienced some positive -- and that's what's given us more confidence to get to this run rate. We have experienced some improved recoveries, particularly at Morenci, where that's been the start of this focus was at Morenci. That has offset the improvements that we've had in leach production during 2022, has offset some shortfalls we had in 2022 associated with lower placements as we struggle through labor situation with mining rates.

謝謝，艾米麗。我們經歷了一些積極的 - 這就是讓我們更有信心達到這個運行速度的原因。我們經歷了一些改善的恢復，特別是在莫倫奇，這是重點開始在莫倫奇。這抵消了我們在 2022 年在浸出生產方面取得的進步，也抵消了我們在 2022 年與較低的安置相關的一些不足，因為我們正在努力應對採礦率的勞動力狀況。

But in terms of the actual benefits to date, we are starting to see those. So you're talking about, by the end of next year, getting to 50 million pounds per quarter on a run rate basis. We're already probably 1/3 of the way there in terms of what we're seeing now. But what we've got to do is not only see the improvements in recovery, but get the material placed. And that's been the challenge in 2022 is getting additional material placed to meet our base production. But the leach initiative has helped us offset some of these shortfalls in other areas.

但就迄今為止的實際好處而言，我們開始看到這些。所以你說的是，到明年年底，按運行率計算，每季度達到 5000 萬英鎊。就我們現在所看到的而言，我們可能已經是那裡的 1/3。但我們要做的不僅是看到恢復方面的改善，而且要放置材料。 2022 年的挑戰是如何放置更多材料來滿足我們的基礎生產。但浸出計劃幫助我們彌補了其他領域的一些不足。

If I could squeeze 1 more just on the Bagdad expansion, it sounds like that's been at least pushed into 2024?

如果我能在巴格達擴張中再擠 1 個，聽起來至少已經被推到了 2024 年？

Well, we're completing the feasibility study. We expect to complete the feasibility study in the first half of next year. And so we'll have the opportunity at that point to look at the situation, look at the availability of labor, look at the inflationary environment that we're in, in terms of executing a project in the environment and look at the overall market conditions.

好吧，我們正在完成可行性研究。我們預計在明年上半年完成可行性研究。因此，屆時我們將有機會查看情況，查看勞動力的可用性，查看我們所處的通貨膨脹環境，在環境中執行項目並查看整體市場條件。

So what we're doing now is really getting to a point where we can make a decision and have the project feasibility ready to go so that we'll have optionality of when to start it. But I think it's fair to say if we wouldn't pull the trigger today to start, we need to see some improvements in just the overall availability of labor, we need to see some improvements in just the tightness that's going on in supply chains and the tough execution environment for construction projects and just the overall copper market. But these are options that we have. And so we don't have any kind of timeline to start it. We want to start it when it makes sense when the market needs it, and so we have that flexibility within the portfolio to do that. But we're continuing the feasibility study so that we can be in that position next year.

因此，我們現在正在做的是真正達到可以做出決定並準備好項目可行性的地步，以便我們可以選擇何時啟動它。但我認為公平地說，如果我們今天不扣動扳機開始，我們需要看到勞動力的整體可用性有所改善，我們需要看到供應鏈的緊張程度有所改善，建築項目的艱難執行環境以及整個銅市場。但這些是我們的選擇。所以我們沒有任何時間表來啟動它。我們希望在市場需要時啟動它，因此我們在投資組合中具有這樣做的靈活性。但我們正在繼續進行可行性研究，以便明年我們能夠處於這個位置。

Your next question will come from the line of Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題將來自 Chris LaFemina 和 Jefferies。

So my question relates to some of the operational and financial flexibility that you have. So if you think back to early 2016, you had $20 billion of debt, very little cash, had to issue equity, sold assets, not in a great position at that time to weather the storm of difficult markets. Whereas today, you have low net debt, you have high cash, your net debt is well below your target range and you have multiple levers that you can pull in the event that macro conditions weaken further. So obviously, the first lever, which looks like you're pulling already, is kind of suspending the buyback until things improve. But you still have a couple of billion dollars of kind of leeway on the balance sheet before you get into your net debt target range.

所以我的問題與你們所擁有的一些運營和財務靈活性有關。因此，如果你回想 2016 年初，你有 200 億美元的債務，只有很少的現金，不得不發行股票、出售資產，當時還沒有很好的位置來度過艱難的市場風暴。而今天，您的淨債務較低，現金較多，您的淨債務遠低於您的目標範圍，並且您有多種槓桿可以在宏觀條件進一步減弱的情況下拉動。所以很明顯，看起來你已經在拉動的第一個槓桿是暫停回購，直到情況好轉。但在您進入淨債務目標範圍之前，您的資產負債表上仍有數十億美元的迴旋餘地。

Let's assume that commodity markets get worse, and we're kind of stress testing the business and you're burning cash for the next kind of 12 months based on your current operational and spending plans. When you get into that targeted net debt range, what are the levers that you can pull next? Are there kind of CapEx reductions that you can make? Are there mines that you'll take offline? I mean the cost inflation is kind of prominent in the industry, and copper price isn't really doing much. So eventually, I would assume that some of these mines become loss-making.

讓我們假設商品市場變得更糟，我們正在對業務進行壓力測試，並且根據您當前的運營和支出計劃，您將在接下來的 12 個月內燒錢。當您進入目標淨債務範圍時，您接下來可以使用哪些槓桿？您可以減少某種資本支出嗎？是否有您將離線的地雷？我的意思是成本膨脹在行業中有點突出，而銅價並沒有真正發揮多大作用。所以最終，我會假設其中一些礦山會虧損。

So what are the levers that you can pull over time in the event that market conditions weaken further? And again, you probably have 12 months of leeway before you need to consider that. But where do you look next to kind of protect the balance sheet and the business?

那麼，如果市場狀況進一步走弱，您可以利用哪些槓桿來拉動時間呢？再說一次，在你需要考慮之前，你可能有 12 個月的迴旋餘地。但是，在保護資產負債表和業務方面，您在哪裡看呢？

Richard, I'll take that. And you can add to it. Or you'd like to go first?

理查德，我會接受的。你可以添加它。還是你想先走？

No. No, Kathleen, go ahead.

不，不，凱瑟琳，繼續。

Yes. Chris, historically, what we've done, and we've got a really, really experienced team at this. Historically, what we've done is looked at each mine individually and looked at opportunities to reduce cost, to keep mine's cash flow positive during weak environments. And what's different right now, and I don't -- if we do get into a recession, I think that we're going to start to see some of these historical correlations come more in line. But right now, we've got the copper prices that have declined significantly, but input costs have not at this point. I think that if we do get into a really tough situation, our cost situation may get some relief.

是的。克里斯，從歷史上看，我們做了什麼，我們有一個非常非常有經驗的團隊。從歷史上看，我們所做的是單獨查看每個礦山並尋找降低成本的機會，以在疲軟的環境中保持礦山的現金流為正。現在有什麼不同，我沒有——如果我們確實陷入衰退，我認為我們將開始看到其中一些歷史相關性更加一致。但現在，我們看到銅價已經大幅下跌，但投入成本目前還沒有。我認為，如果我們確實陷入了非常艱難的境地，我們的成本狀況可能會有所緩解。

But in any case, what we do is we go through each mine, look at the operating plans, determine how we can optimize those operating plans. What it tends to mean is that we tend to look at where can we cut back on the mining rate to get to a better cash flow situation. We did that in 2020. We've certainly done it '08, '09. We did it in '15, '16. We've done it multiple times. So we do -- if we get into the situation, where it is a -- we've got big surpluses building in copper, the world doesn't need our copper, we certainly have the playbook on how to address that.

但無論如何，我們要做的就是檢查每個礦山，查看運營計劃，確定如何優化這些運營計劃。這往往意味著我們傾向於考慮在哪裡可以降低採礦率以獲得更好的現金流狀況。我們在 2020 年做到了。我們肯定在 08 年和 09 年做到了。我們在 15 和 16 年做到了。我們已經做過很多次了。所以我們會這樣做——如果我們遇到這種情況，那就是——我們有大量的銅過剩，世界不需要我們的銅，我們當然有如何解決這個問題的劇本。

The difference now is that the world does seem to need our copper. So the inventories are very tight. We've been recovering from the 2020 downturn where we took down a lot of production, took down a lot of mining rates and we're ramping back up. And it takes a long time to get that flywheel going. So I don't think we're going to be very rash to cut mine rates and do what we need to do, unless it's a very difficult situation.

現在不同的是，世界似乎確實需要我們的銅。所以庫存非常緊張。我們一直在從 2020 年的低迷中復蘇，當時我們降低了很多產量，降低了很多采礦率，並且我們正在加速恢復。讓飛輪運轉需要很長時間。所以我不認為我們會非常草率地降低我的利率並做我們需要做的事情，除非這是一個非常困難的情況。

Now what's different now than it was in 2020 is Grasberg is doing so well. And the match of having our Grasberg mine, it really does provide very strong results, one of the lowest cost mines in the world. And so that -- having that mine up and running and doing so well is a benefit. We've also got a very different balance sheet than we've had historically. But we're going to be smart about how we look at this. We're not going to produce at a loss. If the world needs our copper, it needs to be -- we need to have a margin. So we're going to do what we need to do, the levers that we have to pull are the same levers that we've had in the past. Big reductions in CapEx probably the first thing. And then we'll start looking mine by mine on how to change the operating plans.

現在與 2020 年不同的是，格拉斯伯格做得很好。與我們的 Grasberg 礦相匹配，它確實提供了非常強大的結果，它是世界上成本最低的礦山之一。所以 - 讓那個礦井啟動並運行並做得很好是一個好處。我們的資產負債表也與歷史上截然不同。但我們會很聰明地看待這個問題。我們不會虧本生產。如果世界需要我們的銅，它就需要——我們需要有利潤。所以我們要做我們需要做的事情，我們必須拉動的槓桿與我們過去的槓桿相同。資本支出的大幅減少可能是第一件事。然後我們將開始逐個研究如何更改運營計劃。

But the difference, again, I just want to emphasize, you look at the forecast for this decarbonization, and the world appears to need more copper rather than less. And that copper demand is not [sensitive] to these economic movements. So we are agile, we're nimble, we'll do what we have to do, but I think it is different now than it has been in the past.

但區別在於，我只想再次強調，你看看這種脫碳的預測，世界似乎需要更多而不是更少的銅。而且銅需求對這些經濟走勢並不[敏感]。所以我們很敏捷，我們很靈活，我們會做我們必須做的，但我認為現在與過去不同。

Thanks. No question about that. I mean 2016 was a crisis for our company. We're not anywhere near crisis now. And since then, we've had 2 major accomplishments that's derisked our business significantly. One, was the 218 agreement that we reached with the government to stabilize the situation we had in years about the structure of our taxes, royalties and operating rights. And now we've had 4 years of operating under that and it's going very well as you can see by the President's visit, et cetera.

謝謝。對此毫無疑問。我的意思是 2016 年對我們公司來說是一場危機。我們現在還沒有接近危機。從那時起，我們取得了兩項重大成就，這大大降低了我們的業務風險。一是我們與政府達成的第 218 項協議，以穩定我們多年來在稅收、特許權使用費和經營權結構方面的狀況。現在，我們已經在此基礎上運營了 4 年，並且進展順利，正如您從總統的訪問等中可以看到的那樣。

And then as Kathleen mentioned, derisking Grasberg by ramping up the underground and being so effective in sustaining the rates there. We're going to be able to do that by continuing to operate effectively. We've got this Kucing Liar ore body that we're developing as an add-on to give us stability. And so we're back to the strategy that we've always had, Grasberg generates cash in any environment, it can fund our G&A and then we challenge each of our other mines to manage their business to at least breakeven on a cash basis.

然後就像凱瑟琳提到的那樣，通過增加地下速度並如此有效地維持那裡的費率來降低格拉斯伯格的風險。我們將能夠通過繼續有效運作來做到這一點。我們有這個 Kucing Liar 礦體，我們正在開發它作為一個附加組件，為我們提供穩定性。所以我們回到了我們一直以來的策略，Grasberg 在任何環境中都能產生現金，它可以為我們的 G&A 提供資金，然後我們挑戰我們的每個其他礦山，以至少在現金基礎上管理他們的業務以實現盈虧平衡。

Your next question will come from the line of Alex Hacking with Citi.

您的下一個問題將來自 Alex Hacking with Citi。

Just a quick clarification on the leaching. If you are successful in getting to that 200 million pound rate by the end of next year, should we be then thinking about that adding on to the existing 4.2 billion pound guidance for 2024?

只是對浸出的快速澄清。如果你能在明年年底前成功達到 2 億英鎊的利率，那麼我們是否應該考慮在現有的 2024 年 42 億英鎊的指引基礎上增加這一目標？

Yes.

是的。

We'll give you -- definitely. I mean the possibilities here are really exciting. And we don't want to get way out ahead of ourselves because it's still in the development mode. But with a sizable leaching operations we have already in place throughout our company, the ability to use this technology to add volumes is really exciting and could be meaningful. And then beyond that, we have historical leach stacks and conceivably using this technology to replace concentrated investments with some of our sulfide ore bodies. So it's really something. We're not -- we're using a number of different approaches, some proprietary, some in partnership with others, and we'll give you a report every quarter on how we're progressing with it and how we see it affecting our future.

我們會給你——肯定的。我的意思是這裡的可能性真的很令人興奮。而且我們不想超越自己，因為它仍處於開發模式。但是，由於我們已經在整個公司實施了大規模的浸出操作，使用這項技術增加體積的能力確實令人興奮，並且可能是有意義的。除此之外，我們擁有歷史悠久的浸出堆，並且可以想像使用這項技術用我們的一些硫化礦體取代集中投資。所以這真的很重要。我們不是——我們正在使用許多不同的方法，一些是專有的，一些是與其他人合作的，我們每個季度都會向您提供一份報告，說明我們在這方面的進展情況以及我們認為它如何影響我們的未來。

Yes, we've got about 1/3 of that included in our numbers, Alex. And so there's certainly upside. And our team, we want to get to this initial target, but our team believes that with success there, we can scale it further. So for us, this is -- in the near term, this is an area with low-cost units to our Americas business and particularly in the U.S.

是的，我們的數據中包含了大約 1/3，Alex。所以肯定有好處。而我們的團隊，我們希望達到這個最初的目標，但我們的團隊相信，隨著那裡的成功，我們可以進一步擴大規模。所以對我們來說，這是 - 在短期內，這是一個對我們的美洲業務，特別是在美國有低成本單位的領域。

That's clear that 1/3 of it is already in the guidance. And then just on the cost side, I mean, your tone sounds like you're not really seeing any cost alleviation yet. We have seen FX sort of moving in the right direction for you. Maybe headline energy prices come off a little bit, freight come off a little bit. How are you thinking about the cost environment as you head into 2023?

很明顯，其中 1/3 已經在指導中。然後只是在成本方面，我的意思是，你的語氣聽起來你還沒有真正看到任何成本減輕。我們已經看到 FX 正朝著正確的方向發展。也許整體能源價格下降了一點，運費下降了一點。進入 2023 年，您如何看待成本環境？

It's a challenge.

這是一個挑戰。

Yes. We were encouraged in the third quarter our [revenue] costs were pretty close in line with what we had forecast going into the quarter. And sequentially, (inaudible) the quarter. With the exception of coal, we've had very, very high oil prices in Indonesia, which continue to remain at way above historical levels. So some of the headline commodity prices have come down, and we're encouraged by that. An area that we are seeing increases has come through is more noncommodity -- nondirect commodity, more indirect, where we're seeing the parts and equipment and other supplies that we purchased come in at higher cost. With recession potential, that will give us some leverage to push back on some of these things.

是的。我們在第三季度受到鼓舞，我們的 [收入] 成本與我們對該季度的預測非常接近。依次是（聽不清）季度。除煤炭外，印度尼西亞的油價非常非常高，繼續保持在歷史水平之上。因此，一些總體商品價格已經下跌，我們對此感到鼓舞。我們看到增長的一個領域是更多的非商品——非直接商品，更間接，我們看到我們購買的零件、設備和其他供應品的成本更高。鑑於經濟衰退的可能性，這將給我們一些槓桿來推動其中一些事情。

So the headline numbers, we have seen some relief in. But there are some other underlying areas where we're continuing to see price increases being passed through to us that we're continuing to manage as best we can. You're right about the currencies. That benefits us in South America, Indonesia. And going into the quarter in terms of our guidance, you can see Cerro Verde wasn't that much different than our guidance. The main thing at Cerro Verde was the moly issue that we had. But in the U.S., we don't get the benefit of the currencies.

所以標題數字，我們看到了一些緩解。但在其他一些潛在領域，我們繼續看到價格上漲傳遞給我們，我們將繼續盡最大努力進行管理。你對貨幣的看法是對的。這讓我們在南美、印度尼西亞受益。就我們的指導而言，進入本季度，您可以看到 Cerro Verde 與我們的指導並沒有太大的不同。 Cerro Verde 的主要問題是我們遇到的鉬問題。但在美國，我們並沒有從貨幣中獲益。

So we're -- as we look into 2023, at least right now for our forecast purposes, we're projecting what it is now. So hopefully, if the markets are -- turn weaker, we'll have some better ability to cost down. But right now, for forecasting purposes, we've essentially included what we -- what the current market environment is.

因此，當我們展望 2023 年時，至少現在出於我們的預測目的，我們正在預測現在的情況。所以希望，如果市場 - 轉弱，我們將有更好的降低成本的能力。但是現在，出於預測目的，我們基本上已經包括了我們 - 當前的市場環境是什麼。

Your next question will come from the line of Matthew Murphy with Barclays.

您的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Murphy。

I'm wondering if you have any thoughts you can offer on what might lay ahead on the legislative agenda in the U.S. for the mining sector. There's been lots of talk on critical minerals. And just a few murmurs on permitting changes or debate around the Mining Act. So I'm just wondering if there's any sort of big opportunities or threats out there in what may lay ahead.

我想知道您是否對美國採礦業立法議程的未來有任何想法。有很多關於關鍵礦物的討論。還有一些關於允許圍繞《採礦法》進行更改或辯論的雜音。所以我只是想知道未來是否存在任何重大機遇或威脅。

Well, I mean, it's going to continue to be a matter of discussion, but the practicalities affecting our business are that -- just a couple of facts, I think most of you know this, but we own virtually all of the lands and sea where we have mining operations. So we don't really pay royalties in the U.S. There were some impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act in terms of alternative minimum tax, and we're still sorting through those. But there's a favorable federal tax rate. We have net operating loss carryforwards from our oil and gas deal. We have, in our case, we have great relationships with the states which have the principal regulatory authority over our mining business and expansions. Great community support where we operate, including the native American groups who want us to invest in hiring their people and working together.

好吧，我的意思是，這將繼續成為一個討論問題，但影響我們業務的實際情況是——只是幾個事實，我想你們中的大多數人都知道這一點，但我們幾乎擁有所有的陸地和海洋我們有採礦業務的地方。因此，在美國，我們並沒有真正支付特許權使用費。在替代最低稅方面，《通貨膨脹減少法案》產生了一些影響，我們仍在整理這些影響。但是有一個有利的聯邦稅率。我們的石油和天然氣交易有淨營業虧損結轉。在我們的案例中，我們與對我們的採礦業務和擴張擁有主要監管權力的州有著良好的關係。我們經營所在的社區提供了強大的支持，包括希望我們投資僱用他們的員工和一起工作的美洲原住民團體。

So there'll be a lot of lip service doing this, but we're not counting on any big government-based type incentives for us in the future. We hope people get more reasonable in progressing permitting processes by investing and having resources available to deal with things effectively. But we continue to deal with the fact that politics are shorter run than our business is. And we just have to see.

因此，這樣做會有很多口頭上的服務，但我們不指望未來會為我們提供任何基於政府的大型激勵措施。我們希望人們通過投資和擁有可有效處理事情的資源來更合理地推進許可程序。但我們繼續處理政治比我們的業務更短的事實。我們只需要看看。

Your next question will come from the line of Orest Wowkodaw with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Orest Wowkodaw。

Obviously, we're hearing a lot out there about slowing demand, particularly in regions like Europe. Are you seeing any evidence of that from your customers? Like are any customers scaling back orders at all?

顯然，我們聽到很多關於需求放緩的消息，尤其是在歐洲等地區。您是否從客戶那裡看到了任何證據？比如有沒有客戶縮減訂單？

No. In fact, in Europe, you saw some of the recent articles on premiums that are being suggested at very high levels. The inventories are low, there's -- the production out of Russia is a complicating issue. It's not a -- it's something that the margin -- Freeport produces more copper than Russia does. But that's a factor. But backwardation is strong. It's just striking to see that the price of copper had dropped $0.70 from a [quarter] a year ago and yet the day-to-day business that we have is one where customers are really fighting to get product.

不。事實上，在歐洲，您最近看到了一些關於保費的文章，這些文章的建議水平非常高。庫存很低，俄羅斯的生產是一個複雜的問題。這不是——這是利潤——自由港生產的銅比俄羅斯多。但這是一個因素。但逆價差很強。令人驚訝的是，銅的價格比一年前的一個 [季度] 下跌了 0.70 美元，但我們擁有的日常業務是客戶真正爭取獲得產品的業務。

We had something -- I don't think it's ever happened as Kathleen or Mark Johnson is on the call, but we actually emptied all of our concentrate barns at Grasberg. I mean they were empty. Generally, we have operational issues with the shallow seas there getting production out. So it's just striking how negative the financial markets are about this industry and yet the fiscal market is so tight. It's something that we haven't seen.

我們有一些東西——我不認為它曾經發生過，因為凱瑟琳或馬克約翰遜在電話中，但我們實際上清空了格拉斯伯格的所有濃縮穀倉。我的意思是他們是空的。一般來說，我們在淺海的生產中存在運營問題。因此，令人驚訝的是，金融市場對這個行業的負面影響，而財政市場卻如此緊張。這是我們沒見過的東西。

Now the reality is, and Kathleen mentioned that, is this historical correlation between our input cost and copper prices is disrupted right now. I think it will come back into a more traditional relationship in the future, but it's not now. But we just don't see any -- we certainly have no problem selling copper. In fact, we have problems meeting demand for -- sometimes it's the rod market in the U.S. is disrupted. And so there's a shortage of copper rod in the U.S., but it's a real striking situation right now. Yes. I just -- I don't have any basis for predicting what's going to happen in the near term. But if this market turns, it's going to turn. It's going to turn with a vengeance. I'm not predicting that. I'm just saying if.

現在的現實是，凱瑟琳提到，我們的投入成本和銅價之間的這種歷史相關性現在被打亂了。我認為它會在未來回到更傳統的關係，但不是現在。但我們只是看不到任何東西——我們賣銅當然沒有問題。事實上，我們在滿足需求方面遇到了問題——有時是美國的棒材市場被打亂了。因此，美國銅桿短缺，但現在情況確實令人震驚。是的。我只是 - 我沒有任何基礎來預測近期會發生什麼。但如果這個市場發生變化，它就會發生變化。它會以復仇的方式轉向。我不是這麼預測的。我只是說如果。

Your next question will come from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

I would like to -- if you could possibly discuss, what is the outlook for cash taxes in the quarter? It seems that, that was still an important drag of cash. You gave the guidance for the fourth quarter for the income tax rate, but any comments on the cash front would be really useful.

我想 - 如果您可以討論，本季度現金稅的前景如何？看來，這仍然是一個重要的現金拖累。您為第四季度的所得稅率提供了指導，但任何關於現金方面的評論都會非常有用。

Well, let's just go ahead and answer that. We have the issue -- our taxes we pay are based on our foreign operations, and particularly like in Indonesia, taxes we pay in any given year is based on the taxes we paid in the preceding year. So when you have a situation like we've had this year where the preceding year was a lot stronger financially, we're paying higher cash taxes this year. Next year, it could well reverse. But our tax situation is stabilized. We're watching carefully what's going on in Chile, but that's more of an impact on our future development plans. But we have stabilized taxes in Indonesia and no question about the continuation of that. And just in doing financial analysis, you got to take into account this timing difference when taxes are incurred and when they're actually paid. And if you want details on that, call David Joint, and he can help you walk through those.

好吧，讓我們繼續回答這個問題。我們有一個問題——我們支付的稅款是基於我們的海外業務，特別是在印度尼西亞，我們在任何一年支付的稅款都是基於我們在前一年支付的稅款。因此，當您遇到像我們今年這樣的情況時，前一年的財務狀況要好得多，我們今年要支付更高的現金稅。明年，它很可能會逆轉。但我們的稅收情況已經穩定。我們正在仔細觀察智利正在發生的事情，但這更多地影響了我們未來的發展計劃。但是我們已經穩定了印度尼西亞的稅收，而且毫無疑問會繼續這樣下去。只是在進行財務分析時，你必須考慮到稅收產生和實際支付的時間差異。如果您想了解這方面的詳細信息，請致電 David Joint，他可以幫助您完成這些操作。

Perfect. And if I may squeeze just 1 more. In terms of the negotiations that you have started with the Indonesian government to potentially extend the current agreement beyond 2041, I still -- I presume it's still early on. But any color that you can provide there, how those are going? And when would be the earliest that you could get a resolution on that?

完美的。如果我可以再擠1個。至於你與印度尼西亞政府開始的談判，可能會將目前的協議延長到 2041 年之後，我仍然 - 我認為它還處於早期階段。但是你可以在那裡提供任何顏色，這些顏色怎麼樣？最早什麼時候可以解決這個問題？

So we've had early discussions. And my sense is there's a recognition that it's in all parties' mutual interest to find a resolution for this. It would make no sense for any stakeholder for us to run this operation with a drop dead date of 2041. There's resources already identified beyond that. And for a number of years, because all the protracted discussions we had about our contract of work in IUPK, we really haven't done delineation drilling to really understand what happens to these ore bodies at depth.

所以我們已經進行了早期討論。我的感覺是，人們認識到為此找到解決方案符合各方的共同利益。對於任何利益相關者來說，我們在截止日期為 2041 年的情況下運行此操作是沒有意義的。除此之外，已經確定了資源。多年來，由於我們就IUPK的工作合同進行了所有曠日持久的討論，我們還沒有進行劃界鑽探來真正了解這些礦體在深處發生了什麼。

And so the discussions are early on. There are some complications that we and the government will have to deal with, with the existing regulations and so forth. So it's not something we can say that there is anything other than early conversations. But I've been pleased with the tone of those conversations. And now we're starting the hard work of saying, how do you get this done in a mutually acceptable way.

所以討論很早就開始了。我們和政府將不得不處理一些複雜的問題，包括現有的法規等等。因此，我們不能說除了早期對話之外還有其他任何事情。但我對這些談話的語氣很滿意。現在我們開始努力說，你如何以雙方都能接受的方式完成這項工作。

Carlos, I think one of the things that's a real positive, and we talked about the 2018 agreement earlier, but the fact now that the government through MIND ID owns 51% of PT-FI has increased the knowledge of this ore body and the recognition that it takes a very long time to identify and develop new sources of production. And so there's better recognition that we need to know sooner -- earlier than 5 years before the expiration to be able to maximize the values. And so I think that's a real positive, that recognition that the long-term nature of this business and how it will benefit from having additional exploration, development over the next 10 years instead of waiting until the end until it's too late. So that's a real positive of the 2018 agreement and alignment that we have with the government.

Carlos，我認為其中一件非常積極的事情，我們之前談到了 2018 年的協議，但現在政府通過 MIND ID 擁有 51% 的 PT-FI 的事實增加了對該礦體的了解和認可發現和開發新的生產來源需要很長時間。所以有更好的認識，我們需要更早地知道——早於到期前的 5 年，才能最大化價值。所以我認為這是一個真正的積極因素，認識到這項業務的長期性質以及它將如何從未來 10 年的額外探索和發展中受益，而不是等到結束時才為時已晚。因此，這是我們與政府達成的 2018 年協議和結盟的真正積極因素。

Yes. That's a good point, Kathleen.

是的。這是一個很好的觀點，凱瑟琳。

Our next question will come from the line of Michael Dudas with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Michael Dudas。

So looking back towards, say, maybe prepandemic levels, and if you're analyzing you're doing a feasibility, say, like you're doing for Bagdad or any other type of project, what do you estimate the increase in absolute dollar capital cost would be for a certain run-in-the-mill or whatever type of project you have? And what do you think those operating costs would fall through higher?

所以回顧一下，比如說，可能是大流行前的水平，如果你正在分析你正在做一個可行性，比如說，就像你在為巴格達或任何其他類型的項目所做的那樣，你估計絕對美元資本的增加是多少成本將是某個磨合期或您擁有的任何類型的項目？您認為這些運營成本會降低多少？

And the other aspect is, as you analyze risk rate adjusted return or return of expectations, have you changed them given where interest rate levels are and some of the political aspects most -- whether it's the U.S. or in South America?

另一個方面是，當你分析風險率調整後的回報或預期回報時，你是否改變了它們，因為利率水平在哪里以及一些政治方面最重要——無論是美國還是南美？

No, it just -- Michael, these projects are so different. You can't set them in, and I know a lot of people who follow the industry at a high level are always trying to come up with some things like incentive prices and other things that fit, but every one of these projects are just so different. And there are different factors. We will factor in the -- as we conduct this feasibility study at Bagdad and begin -- and the continued discussions with our Board, we will factor in whatever the current price outlook is for capital and operating cost, even though we don't focus in on a particular copper price.

不，只是——邁克爾，這些項目是如此不同。你不能設置它們，我知道很多在高水平上關注這個行業的人總是試圖提出一些東西，比如激勵價格和其他合適的東西，但是這些項目中的每一個都是如此不同的。並且有不同的因素。我們將考慮 - 當我們在巴格達進行可行性研究並開始時 - 以及與董事會的持續討論，我們將考慮當前的資本和運營成本價格前景，即使我們不關注在特定的銅價上。

But what does scenario copper prices look like and how does it fit into our overall portfolio. One thing that's come out of this -- Kathleen made references to it a couple of times, but one thing that's come out of the pandemic is labor issues. And that's -- as I talk with people, the business roundtable, business counsel, it cuts across industries, but it certainly affects our industry. And Bagdad is a very remote location. And we've got to make some investments to attract people to come there and develop a sustainable labor force there.

但是，情景銅價會是什麼樣子，以及它如何融入我們的整體投資組合。由此產生的一件事——凱瑟琳多次提到它，但從大流行中產生的一件事是勞工問題。這就是——當我與人們、商業圓桌會議、商業顧問交談時，它跨越了各個行業，但它肯定會影響我們的行業。巴格達是一個非常偏遠的地方。我們必須進行一些投資以吸引人們來到那裡並在那裡發展可持續的勞動力。

But it's true in our other operations. Not so much overseas, but in the U.S., it's a real issue, and that's a factor to consider in terms of committing capital. And we've got a whole long future of potential capital projects in the U.S. And there are a lot of, in our view, advantages for Freeport in having that. There's -- I mentioned the royalty situation, the great community support we have, the support from the travel groups and the long history that we've worked, invested so hard to have those positive relationships. And so we just have to pull them in.

但在我們的其他業務中也是如此。不是在海外，而是在美國，這是一個真正的問題，這是在投入資金方面需要考慮的一個因素。我們在美國擁有一個長期的潛在資本項目未來。在我們看來，自由港擁有這些項目有很多優勢。有——我提到了版稅情況、我們擁有的強大社區支持、旅遊團體的支持以及我們工作的悠久歷史，為建立這些積極的關係付出了巨大的努力。所以我們只需要把它們拉進來。

I guess, my point is it's not something you can really generalize about, but you have to dig into each of these projects and thoroughly understand how costs, other factors figure into it. So we got Bagdad. We've got this Lone Star project, it lies ahead in our future. That's great. El Abra is going to be a great project eventually. So I wish I could give you some simplified answers for that.

我想，我的觀點是這不是你可以真正概括的東西，但你必須深入研究每個項目並徹底了解成本和其他因素如何影響它。所以我們得到了巴格達。我們有這個孤星項目，它就在我們的未來。那太棒了。 El Abra 最終將成為一個偉大的項目。所以我希望我能給你一些簡化的答案。

There's clearly a mismatch, Michael, between current cost of a capital project and where the current copper price is. And that's what's guiding some of our thinking around timing of Bagdad is it's not something we have to do now. Let's wait to see how some of this unfolds and not try to force a project in the kind of environment we're in, where the availability of people and equipment is tight.

邁克爾，資本項目的當前成本與當前銅價之間顯然存在不匹配。這就是指導我們對巴格達時間安排的一些思考的原因，這不是我們現在必須做的事情。讓我們拭目以待，看看其中一些如何展開，而不是試圖在我們所處的那種環境中強制執行項目，那里人員和設備的可用性都很緊張。

So this is really a project of bringing copper forward. If we don't produce it now, we'll produce it later. But we wanted -- the capital part of this project is important because you don't want to be building a project in an inflationary environment when you wait to use it, it could be a different story. We can't -- as Richard was saying, we can't predict exact timing, but we know we can be more efficient about doing a project in a different environment than where we sit today in the U.S.

所以這確實是一個讓銅向前發展的項目。如果我們現在不生產它，我們將在以後生產它。但我們想要 - 這個項目的資本部分很重要，因為當你等待使用它時，你不想在通貨膨脹的環境中構建一個項目，它可能是一個不同的故事。我們不能——正如理查德所說，我們無法預測確切的時間，但我們知道我們可以在與我們今天在美國所處的環境不同的環境中更有效地開展項目。

Well, yes, you just certainly highlighted the fact that the hurdle for the industry is much higher and certainly it's going to exacerbate whatever supply/demand gap you anticipate going forward because of what you just enumerated. So I appreciate those thoughts.

好吧，是的，您只是強調了一個事實，即該行業的障礙要高得多，而且由於您剛才列舉的內容，它肯定會加劇您預期的任何供需差距。所以我很欣賞這些想法。

Well, that is a real point. I mean this industry faced supply challenges before this current inflationary environment we have, those had to do -- when I look back on the almost 20 years now I've been CEO, you have geology factors where today's opportunities for supply expansion just are much less attractive than they were 20 years ago. And then you got these geopolitical factors that crop up in different places around the world, and the fact that so many new deposits are underground, et cetera, et cetera.

嗯，這是一個真正的觀點。我的意思是這個行業在我們目前的通脹環境之前面臨供應挑戰，那些必須做的——當我回顧我擔任首席執行官的近 20 年時，你有地質因素，今天的供應擴張機會很多不像 20 年前那麼有吸引力。然後你會得到這些在世界各地出現的地緣政治因素，以及如此多的新礦床位於地下的事實，等等等等。

But now this current situation we're going through right now with the uncertainties about the relationship between input cost and prices, about the availability of material and supply, supply chain issues, about labor issues, particularly in the U.S., all those things are just adding to the supply barriers for the industry. And yet, we have this new era of demand that's coming to play. And absent some just global calamity on whatever basis it is, I'm just so increasingly confident about what the outlook for the commodity is going to be and just how strongly our company is positioned to benefit from that outlook.

但是現在我們正在經歷的當前情況是關於投入成本和價格之間關係的不確定性，關於材料和供應的可用性，供應鏈問題，關於勞動力問題，尤其是在美國，所有這些都只是增加了行業的供應壁壘。然而，我們迎來了這個新的需求時代。並且無論基於什麼原因，如果沒有一些公正的全球災難，我對商品的前景以及我們公司從這種前景中受益的能力越來越有信心。

And that's what we want to preserve. That's why we're going to be conservative about spending capital, about financial policy. Because, if anything, this company has seen the damage that can be incurred if you don't approach it in a commodity environment like we have or an industry like we have in a conservative, solid way. And so that's what you hear over and over as we talk about how we're dealing with the current environment and positioning ourselves for a positive future.

這就是我們想要保留的東西。這就是為什麼我們將在資本支出和金融政策方面保持保守。因為，如果有的話，這家公司已經看到瞭如果你不在像我們這樣的商品環境或像我們這樣的行業以保守、可靠的方式接近它可能造成的損害。當我們談論我們如何應對當前環境並為積極的未來定位自己時，這就是你一遍又一遍地聽到的內容。

Our next question will come from the line of Martin Malloy with Johnson Rice.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Martin Malloy 和 Johnson Rice。

Assuming that the current copper pricing environment and financing environment continues here, from an industry standpoint, when do you think it will start to impact in terms of the deferment of projects, et cetera, the industry supply?

假設目前的銅定價環境和融資環境在這裡持續下去，從行業的角度來看，您認為什麼時候會開始對項目延期等方面的行業供應產生影響？

Well, the current environment is adding to it. But clearly, the uncertainties that emerged over this past year plus time in Latin America, 40% of the world's copper comes from Chile and Peru. And with what went on in their most recent presidential elections, the uncertainties that came out from that and things continue to change in Peru, the government has been in turmoil, I mean, the number of ministers that have gone through this administration is just striking. Then Chile had the situation where there was a negative vote on their proposed constitutional amendment, which changed the targets there. And you can see what's happening to greenfield projects being delayed in the United States, even though there seems to be lip service saying that the world needs copper, but that's not changing so much for greenfield projects here in Africa.

好吧，當前的環境正在增加它。但很明顯，過去一年加上拉丁美洲出現的不確定性，全球 40% 的銅來自智利和秘魯。隨著他們最近的總統選舉中發生的事情，由此產生的不確定性以及秘魯的情況繼續發生變化，政府一直處於動蕩之中，我的意思是，經過本屆政府的部長人數驚人.然後智利出現了對其提議的憲法修正案投反對票的情況，這改變了那裡的目標。你可以看到在美國被推遲的新建項目正在發生什麼，儘管似乎有人說世界需要銅，但對於非洲的新建項目來說，情況並沒有太大變化。

So I mean it's just a world of where all of this is happening. We do have an industry where there's 2 or 3 projects that have been in the works for many years now, they're going to come on stream shortly. But when you get past those, you just see everything is dried up and you don't see companies talking about having -- you'll hear more about like you're hearing from Freeport. We're being conservative about Bagdad, we're being conservative about Cerro -- about El Abra, conservative about our opportunities in Lone Star. And the surpluses that were predicted 2 or 3 years ago are being downgraded as companies downgrade their current production estimates. So it's going to happen quickly in the next 3 years and it could be shorter.

所以我的意思是，這只是一個所有這一切都在發生的世界。我們確實有一個行業，其中有 2 或 3 個項目已經進行了多年，它們很快就會投入使用。但是當你超越這些時，你只會看到一切都枯竭了，而且你沒有看到公司談論擁有——你會聽到更多關於你從 Freeport 那裡聽到的消息。我們對巴格達保守，我們對塞羅保守——關於埃爾阿布拉，對我們在孤星的機會保守。 2 或 3 年前預測的盈余正在被下調，因為公司下調了他們目前的產量估計。因此，這將在未來 3 年內迅速發生，而且可能會更短。

I just see some real similarities to what we've seen in the crude oil business for years of underinvestment, and then all of a sudden, something happens and now the world had a crisis for -- in the oil industry.

我只是看到了一些與我們多年來在原油行業中看到的投資不足的真正相似之處，然後突然之間，發生了一些事情，現在世界出現了危機——石油行業。

Our final question will come from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Brian MacArthur 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

Most of my question has been answered, but can I just ask, El Abra had a very good quarter, 60 million pounds, that's probably the best in like years. Is that sustainable now? Or was something different happening this quarter there?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但我能不能問一下，El Abra 有一個非常好的季度，6000 萬英鎊，這可能是近幾年來最好的。現在可持續嗎？或者本季度那裡發生了一些不同的事情？

No. I mean we've been flagging that we cut El Abra's stacking rate during 2020 and have been ramping back up to get an increase. And so we've been flagging the -- and we're moving to a new leach pad there. So that's in line with what we've been guiding to.

不。我的意思是我們一直在標記，我們在 2020 年降低了 El Abra 的堆疊率，並且一直在加速恢復以增加。所以我們一直在標記 - 我們正在搬到那裡的新浸出墊。所以這與我們一直在指導的方向一致。

So we're back. We're now on that new steady run rate of 240 million, 250 million pounds a year?

所以我們回來了。我們現在正處於每年 2.4 億、2.5 億磅的新穩定運行速度上？

Right.

正確的。

Yes. You touched on an important point. And we certainly saw this with the crisis steps we took years ago in 2016, and this sort of ties into the question about what are you going to do with some of these lower-grade deposits. If you make decisions about mine rates, they have long-term consequences. It takes a while if you cut back stacking rates on some of these mines and that's not a production impact just for this year, but extends for years in the future.

是的。你談到了一個重要的點。我們當然在多年前 2016 年採取的危機措施中看到了這一點，這與您將如何處理這些低品位礦床的問題有關。如果您就礦費做出決定，它們會產生長期後果。如果您降低其中一些礦山的堆放率需要一段時間，這不僅會影響今年的生產，而且會在未來幾年內延續。

So as we take steps to build it back up, then that's going to be incremental over a period of time. And so I just keep harping the people who try -- talking about our business. It's a long, long-term business. And that just comes to play in almost everything we do.

因此，當我們採取措施對其進行備份時，這將在一段時間內逐漸增加。所以我只是不斷地對那些嘗試的人——談論我們的業務。這是一項長期的、長期的業務。這幾乎適用於我們所做的一切。

Great. Now I know it was coming back up. It just was just sort of a pretty big jump all of a sudden. So I just was curious whether everything had been done there to go to that new rate.

偉大的。現在我知道它又回來了。這只是突然之間的一個相當大的跳躍。所以我只是好奇那裡是否已經完成了一切以達到新的速度。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Thanks, Brian. Thanks, everybody. We really appreciate you being on the call and encourage you to follow up if you have further questions. And we look forward to reporting on our company and our industry in the future. So thanks for joining us.

好的。謝謝，布賴恩。謝謝大家。我們非常感謝您接聽電話，如果您有其他問題，我們鼓勵您跟進。我們期待著在未來報告我們的公司和我們的行業。所以感謝您加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，我們今天的呼籲到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。