First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the First Citizens BancShares second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 First Citizens BancShares 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製。

I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在，我想介紹這次電話會議的主持人、投資者關係主管迪安娜·哈特女士。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to First Citizens second-quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix. They will provide second-quarter business and financial updates referencing our earnings call presentation which you can find on our website.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 First Citizens 第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Frank Holding 和財務長克雷格尼克斯 (Craig Nix)。他們將提供第二季的業務和財務更新，參考我們的收益電話會議報告，您可以在我們的網站上找到。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined on page 3 of the presentation.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。這些風險在簡報的第 3 頁中有概述。

We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in Section V of the presentation.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在本報告的第五部分中找到。

Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third parties.

最後，First Citizens 不對第三方提供的收入記錄負責，也不編輯或保證其準確性。

I will now turn it over to Frank.

現在我將把發言權交給法蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our quarterly earnings call, and thank you for joining us this morning. I will start by providing brief comments on our second-quarter results before turning it over to Craig Nix to review our performance in more detail.

謝謝你，迪安娜。大家早安。歡迎參加我們的季度財報電話會議，感謝您今天上午的參加。我將首先對我們的第二季業績進行簡要評論，然後交給 Craig Nix 更詳細地回顧我們的表現。

Starting on page 5, our key earnings metrics were solid, marked by net interest income growth, net charge-offs at their lowest level since the second quarter of 2024, and adjusted non-interest expense at the low end of our guidance range. We reported adjusted earnings per share of $44.78, or an adjusted ROE of 11.00% and an ROA of 1.07%. We maintained strong capital and liquidity positions, supporting balance sheet growth and allowing us to return another $613 million to our shareholders through share repurchases during the second quarter. Upon the successful completion of our annual capital planning activities, this, week, our Board approved a new $4 billion share repurchase plan to commence upon completion of the current plan.

從第 5 頁開始，我們的主要獲利指標穩健，包括淨利息收入成長、淨沖銷額處於 2024 年第二季以來的最低水平，以及調整後的非利息支出處於我們指導範圍的低端。我們報告的調整後每股收益為 44.78 美元，調整後的 ROE 為 11.00%，ROA 為 1.07%。我們維持了強勁的資本和流動性狀況，支持了資產負債表的成長，並使我們能夠在第二季透過股票回購向股東再返還 6.13 億美元。在成功完成我們的年度資本規劃活動後，本週，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 40 億美元股票回購計劃，該計劃將在當前計劃完成後開始實施。

Craig will address additional details regarding the new plan in his comments on the quarter, but first, I would like to take a moment to highlight progress on our 2025 strategic priorities and the positive results we are seeing in our business segments. During the quarter, we continued consolidating platforms and relationship teams to ensure a seamless client experience, and we're beginning to see positive momentum from these activities.

克雷格將在本季度的評論中討論有關新計劃的更多細節，但首先，我想花點時間強調一下我們 2025 年戰略重點的進展以及我們在業務部門中看到的積極成果。在本季度，我們繼續整合平台和關係團隊，以確保無縫的客戶體驗，並且我們開始看到這些活動的積極勢頭。

We're also seeing tangible benefits from the way our teams are working together, resulting in new business and deepening existing relationships. Whether it's a middle market company needing capital markets expertise, a high-net-worth client looking for integrated advice, or a multinational company navigating complex treasury needs, we're not just delivering solutions; we're listening to our clients' needs and helping them succeed.

我們也看到了團隊合作方式帶來的實際好處，帶來了新業務並深化了現有關係。無論是需要資本市場專業知識的中型市場公司、尋求全面建議的高淨值客戶，還是應對複雜財務需求的跨國公司，我們不只是提供解決方案；我們還傾聽客戶的需求並幫助他們取得成功。

We were recently excited to announce the appointment of Di Morais to our Board of Directors. Di is a distinguished leader and executive with more than 30 years financial services experience and most recently served as President of Consumer and Commercial Banking at Ally Bank. Over the course of her distinguished career, Di has become known as a results-oriented executive with a customer-centric vision which aligns nicely with the relationship-based long-term focus at First Citizens. Her knowledge and experience complement our Board, and we're excited to have her on our team.

我們最近很高興地宣布任命 Di Morais 為董事會成員。Di 是一位傑出的領導者和高管，擁有 30 多年的金融服務經驗，最近擔任 Ally Bank 的消費者和商業銀行總裁。在她傑出的職業生涯中，Di 以注重結果的高管而聞名，她具有以客戶為中心的願景，這與 First Citizens 基於關係的長期重點完美契合。她的知識和經驗對我們的董事會起到了補充作用，我們很高興她能加入我們的團隊。

Looking at page 6, our strategic priorities are unchanged from the prior quarter and are outlined for you on this slide. We continue to demonstrate the strength of our diversified lines of business and remain dedicated to our client-first focus. I like our positioning to capitalize on growth opportunities while continuing to optimize our balance sheet and enhance our processes and systems to maximize efficiency and productivity.

請看第 6 頁，我們的策略重點與上一季相比沒有變化，並在這張投影片上為您概述。我們持續展現多元化業務的實力，並持續致力於客戶至上的服務。我喜歡我們的定位，利用成長機會，同時繼續優化我們的資產負債表並增強我們的流程和系統，以最大限度地提高效率和生產力。

As always, we remain vigilant on the macro and geopolitical landscape which remains somewhat uncertain due to tariff policy and negotiations, interest rates, and regulatory change. While we recognize some elements of the landscape could represent tailwinds while others contribute to headwinds, we are pleased that our capital and liquidity positions allow us to operate from a position of strength.

像往常一樣，我們對宏觀和地緣政治格局保持警惕，由於關稅政策和談判、利率和監管變化，宏觀和地緣政治格局仍然存在一定的不確定性。雖然我們認識到，一些情況因素可能代表順風，而另一些因素則可能代表逆風，但我們很高興，我們的資本和流動性狀況使我們能夠以強勢地位運作。

To close, I'm very optimistic about our future as we remain committed to our customers and clients, investing for the long term, and delivering sustained shareholder value.

最後，我對我們的未來非常樂觀，因為我們仍然致力於服務我們的客戶和客戶，進行長期投資，並為股東提供持續的價值。

With that, Craig, please take us through the financial results of the quarter and forward-looking guidance for the remainder of the year. Craig?

克雷格，請向我們介紹本季的財務表現以及今年剩餘時間的前瞻性指引。克雷格？

Thank you, Frank. I appreciate everyone joining us today. I will anchor my comments to the second-quarter key takeaways outlined on page 8. Pages 9 through 26 provide more details underlying our results and are there for your reference.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。我感謝今天與我們一起的各位。我的評論將集中在第 8 頁概述的第二季關鍵要點。第 9 頁至第 26 頁提供了我們研究結果的更多詳細信息，供您參考。

As Frank mentioned, our second-quarter return metrics were solid. Adjusted net income was $607 million, exceeding our expectations buoyed by better-than-expected net interest income growth, lower-than-expected credit costs, and expenses in the low end of our guidance range.

正如弗蘭克所提到的，我們第二季的報酬指標穩健。調整後的淨收入為 6.07 億美元，超出我們的預期，這得益於好於預期的淨利息收入增長、低於預期的信貸成本以及處於我們指導範圍低端的支出。

As a result of our financial performance, tangible book value per share increased by 10.4% over the prior year and 2.7% sequentially, despite share repurchases totaling $2.9 billion over the last 12 months and $613 million in the second quarter. The unrealized loss on our AFS portfolio improved 27.1% sequentially, and if rates do move lower as the forward curve projects, we anticipate that the AOCI burndown will continue to benefit our tangible book value per share growth.

由於我們的財務表現，儘管過去 12 個月的股票回購總額為 29 億美元，第二季度為 6.13 億美元，但每股有形帳面價值仍比上年增長 10.4%，比上一季增長 2.7%。我們的 AFS 投資組合的未實現損失環比改善了 27.1%，如果利率按照遠期曲線預測的那樣走低，我們預計 AOCI 燒毀將繼續有利於我們每股有形賬面價值的增長。

After three quarters of sequential declines and declines in five of the last eight quarters, headline net interest income was up 2% sequentially and in the upper half of our guidance range. Net interest income, ex accretion, which had also declined in five of the past eight quarters, also grew sequentially by 2.6% after three sequential quarters of declines. Growth in both headline and ex-accretion net interest income was due to a higher day count and average earning asset base.

在經歷了連續三個季度的下滑以及過去八個季度中有五個季度的下滑之後，整體淨利息收入環比增長 2%，處於我們預期範圍的上半部分。扣除利息淨收入在過去八個季度中有五個季度出現下降，在連續三個季度下降之後，也環比增長了 2.6%。總體和扣除累積淨利息收入的成長是由於天數和平均生息資產基礎的增加。

Headline NIM was 3.26%, matching the linked quarter, while NIM ex-accretion was 3.14% up 2 basis points sequentially as we were able to continue to manage deposit costs down while the earning asset yield remained relatively stable. While we were pleased to see an expansion of ex-accretion NIM, should there be further monetary easing in the back half of '25 and into '26, our trough will be further out.

整體淨利差為 3.26%，與上一季持平，而淨利差除以增值為 3.14%，環比上升 2 個基點，因為我們能夠繼續降低存款成本，同時生息資產收益率保持相對穩定。雖然我們很高興看到扣除累積因素後的淨利差有所擴大，但如果 2025 年下半年和 2026 年進一步放鬆貨幣政策，我們的低谷將進一步擴大。

Adjusted non-interest income came in just above our guidance range, increasing by $34 million or by 7.2%. The primary drivers of the increase were favorable changes in the fair market, the fair value of customer derivative positions and other non-marketable investments, as well as the first-quarter write-down on a held-for-sale asset which did not impact the current quarter.

調整後的非利息收入略高於我們的指導範圍，增加了 3,400 萬美元，即 7.2%。成長的主要驅動因素是公平市場的有利變化、客戶衍生性商品部位和其他非市場化投資的公允價值，以及第一季對持有待售資產的減記，但這些對本季沒有影響。

Adjusted rental income in our Rail business increased by $5 million sequentially, resulting from higher rental income and lower maintenance costs. The underlying fundamentals in the Rail business continue to perform well as utilization remains high at 96.9%, and we achieved the 15th consecutive quarter of positive repricing trends. Given these trends, we believe there continues to be a solid runway throughout 2025 and beyond for continued growth, assuming performance is not impacted by significant changes in the macroeconomic environment. However, given that only around 30% of the portfolio expires in '25 and '26, there is some protection against near-term disruption.

由於租金收入增加和維護成本降低，我們鐵路業務的調整後租金收入較上季增加了 500 萬美元。鐵路業務的基本面繼續表現良好，利用率仍高達 96.9%，我們連續 15 個季度實現了積極的重新定價趨勢。鑑於這些趨勢，我們相信，假設業績不受宏觀經濟環境重大變化的影響，2025 年及以後仍將保持穩固的成長動能。不過，考慮到只有約 30% 的投資組合將在 2025 年和 2026 年到期，因此可以在一定程度上防止短期中斷。

Adjusted non-interest expense came in at the lower end of our guidance, increasing sequentially by less than 1%. The low sequential growth rate was impacted by seasonal items in the first quarter related to incentive payments and the reset of payroll taxes and 401(k) contributions. These increases -- adjusting for the impact of these seasonal items, the increase over the sequential quarter was primarily driven by an increase in salaries and wages due to merit increases and higher professional fees and net occupancy expenses. These increases were partially offset by a decline in equipment expense. However, we expect this trend will reverse in the back half of '25 as additional risk and technology projects are placed into service. I will discuss further in our outlook, but we expect quarterly expenses to remain in the $1.28 billion to $1.32 billion range in the third and fourth quarters.

調整後的非利息支出處於我們預期的低端，較上季成長不到 1%。環比成長率較低受到第一季與獎勵金以及工資稅和 401(k) 供款重置相關的季節性項目的影響。這些增長——根據這些季節性項目的影響進行調整後，與上一季相比的增長主要是由於績效加薪導致的工資和薪金增加以及專業費用和淨入住費用增加。這些增長被設備費用的下降部分抵消。然而，隨著更多風險和技術項目的投入使用，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2025 年下半年發生逆轉。我將在我們的展望中進一步討論，但我們預計第三季和第四季的季度支出將保持在 12.8 億美元至 13.2 億美元之間。

Moving to the balance sheet, loans declined modestly by $89 million or about 0.1% sequentially, with modest growth in Global Fund Banking within the SVB Commercial segment and in the General and Commercial Bank segments, offset by a decline in Tech & Healthcare portfolio within the SVB Commercial segment. Tech & Healthcare Banking loan outstandings were down approximately $300 million from the linked quarter. This was in line with our expectations as loan payoffs and paydowns continue to outpace new loan fundings in the current environment. Positively, loan commitments were flat over the first quarter reversing recent trends, and new loan originations were at their highest level in the last 12 months, demonstrating our continued commitment to the innovation economy.

從資產負債表來看，貸款環比小幅下降 8,900 萬美元，降幅約為 0.1%，其中矽谷銀行商業部門內的全球基金銀行業務以及一般和商業銀行部門的貸款小幅增長，但被矽谷銀行商業部門內的科技和醫療保健投資組合的下降所抵消。科技與醫療保健銀行貸款未償還金額較上一季下降約 3 億美元。這符合我們的預期，因為在當前環境下，貸款償還和分期償還的速度繼續超過新的貸款融資。積極的一面是，第一季貸款承諾持平，扭轉了近期趨勢，新貸款發放量達到過去 12 個月以來的最高水平，顯示了我們對創新經濟的持續承諾。

Global Fund Banking experienced just over $100 million in growth despite lower utilization levels as we continue to see new loan originations. The pipeline remains strong, totaling $9.5 billion at the end of the quarter. While we remain guarded on overall asset growth levels in this business, we are seeing early signs that the second half of the year could spark additional activity, which could be a positive driver with respect to line utilization as VC and PE capital is deployed.

儘管利用率較低，但全球基金銀行業務的成長仍略高於 1 億美元，因為我們繼續看到新的貸款發放。該通路仍保持強勁勢頭，截至本季末總額達 95 億美元。雖然我們對該業務的整體資產成長水準保持謹慎，但我們看到早期跡象表明，今年下半年可能會引發更多活動，隨著風險投資和私募股權資本的部署，這可能會對線路利用率產生積極推動作用。

General Bank loans grew $140 million, driven primarily by our wealth business which saw both increased originations and higher line utilization in the second quarter. These increases were partially offset by declines in our business and commercial portfolios within the branch network as competition for new business remains fierce and loan originations have been muted the past two quarters. While the decline was not ideal, we have been steadfast in our loan pricing approach and are not changing our credit standards despite increased competition and rate pressure from competitors.

通用銀行貸款成長了 1.4 億美元，這主要得益於我們的財富業務，該業務在第二季度的發放量和信用額度利用率均有所增加。由於新業務競爭依然激烈，且過去兩季貸款發放量低迷，這些成長部分被分行網路內業務和商業組合的下降所抵銷。雖然下降幅度並不理想，但我們始終堅持貸款定價方式，儘管競爭加劇和來自競爭對手的利率壓力，但我們不會改變信用標準。

We believe that macroeconomic uncertainty is leading to decreased demand which is helping to drive these competitive pressures. Our pricing discipline was reflected in our loan yield as the loan yield ex-accretion improved 1 basis point to 6.25% from the linked quarter despite the impacts of the declining yield curve. Within the General Bank specifically, the loan yield was up 5 basis points from the linked quarter.

我們認為，宏觀經濟的不確定性導致需求下降，加劇了競爭壓力。我們的定價紀律反映在貸款收益率上，儘管受到收益率曲線下降的影響，但貸款收益率除增量外仍比上一季度提高了 1 個基點，達到 6.25%。具體而言，在通用銀行中，貸款收益率較上一季上升了 5 個基點。

Commercial Bank growth was concentrated in Real Estate Finance and Equipment Finance and was partially offset by a decline within our industry verticals, driven by loan maturities and higher prepayments. The growth in Real Estate Finance was primarily due to slower payouts.

商業銀行的成長主要集中在房地產金融和設備金融領域，但由於貸款到期和預付款增加，行業垂直領域的下滑部分抵消了這一增長。房地產金融的成長主要是由於支出放緩。

Turning to the right-hand side of the balance sheet, deposits were up $610 million, or about 4.4%, sequentially as we experienced growth in both the Direct Bank and SVB Commercial. The Direct Bank was the largest contributor to the increase, growing by $941 million, as we continued to see solid elasticity in these deposits despite lowering rates. We were also encouraged by our ability to keep the non-interest-bearing deposit mix flat from the linked quarter despite growth in the Direct Bank channel. Since year-end, demand deposits were up $2.2 billion, representing an annualized growth rate of 11.6%. Growth was concentrated in SVB Commercial and the General Bank.

轉向資產負債表的右側，由於直接銀行和 SVB 商業銀行均實現成長，存款環比增加了 6.1 億美元，增幅約為 4.4%。直接銀行是這一成長的最大貢獻者，成長了 9.41 億美元，儘管利率降低，但我們仍然看到這些存款具有強勁的彈性。儘管直接銀行管道有所成長，但我們仍能保持無息存款結構與上一季持平，這令我們感到鼓舞。自年底以來，活期存款增加了 22 億美元，年增長率為 11.6%。成長主要集中在矽谷商業銀行和通用銀行。

In SVB Commercial, we experienced end-of-period growth of $778 million due to an increased deposit flow in the back half of the quarter. We were encouraged by growth in Tech & Healthcare Banking which was driven by a new client acquisition despite continued challenges in the overall fundraising environment.

在矽谷銀行商業銀行，由於本季後半段存款流量增加，我們的期末成長了 7.78 億美元。儘管整體融資環境仍面臨挑戰，但科技與醫療銀行業務的成長仍令我們感到鼓舞，新客戶的獲得推動了該業務的成長。

Average deposit balances and average total client funds, or TCF, were down from the sequential quarter due to larger outflows in April and May. Encouragingly, we did see higher levels of TCF inflows in June. These increases were partially offset by declines of $810 million and $95 million in the General Bank and Commercial Bank, respectively.

由於 4 月和 5 月資金流出量較大，平均存款餘額和平均客戶資金總額（TCF）較上一季下降。令人鼓舞的是，我們確實看到 6 月 TCF 流入量有所增加。這些成長部分被通用銀行和商業銀行分別減少 8.1 億美元和 9,500 萬美元所抵銷。

The decline in the General Bank was driven by lower balances in the branch network and cab due to seasonal outflows and lower net growth. Within the General Bank, we have implemented a new deposit growth tactics to help identify both near and long-term opportunities to accelerate growth through deepening relationships, encouraging more local decision-making, and improving digital capabilities.

通用銀行的下滑是由於季節性資金流出和淨增長率下降導致分行網路和計程車餘額減少。在普通銀行內部，我們實施了新的存款成長策略，以幫助識別近期和長期機會，透過深化關係、鼓勵更多本地決策和提高數位能力來加速成長。

Moving to credit, net charge-offs declined by 8 basis points sequentially and were below our guidance range, as a few of the larger deals we anticipated would pull through this quarter were delayed as we continue to work through resolution with our clients. Consistent with prior quarters, net charge-offs were mostly concentrated in the general office, investor dependent, and equipment finance portfolios. There were a couple of sizable charge-offs in the broader SVB innovation portfolio and within our Commercial Finance business, most of which were previously reserved for.

轉向信貸，淨沖銷額環比下降 8 個基點，低於我們的指導範圍，因為我們預計本季度將完成的一些較大的交易被推遲，因為我們繼續與客戶共同努力解決問題。與前幾季一致，淨沖銷主要集中在一般辦公室、投資者相關和設備融資組合。矽谷銀行的創新組合以及我們的商業金融業務中出現了幾筆數額可觀的沖銷，其中大部分是之前預留的。

As we have noted on past calls, net charge-offs can be lumpy quarter over quarter given the hold sizes of some of our larger credits. While we will continue to monitor these portfolios, we are not seeing any further trends that would signal wider credit quality concerns and believe we are well reserved.

正如我們在過去的電話會議中所指出的，考慮到我們一些較大信貸的持有規模，淨沖銷額可能會逐季度波動。雖然我們將繼續監控這些投資組合，但我們沒有看到任何表明更廣泛的信貸品質擔憂的進一步趨勢，並相信我們已做好充分準備。

The allowance ratio was down 1 basis point to 1.18%. We feel good about our overall reserve coverage as well as the coverage on the portfolios experiencing stress. Ultimately, our strong risk management framework, rigorous underwriting standards, and diversified portfolio helped safeguard against losses.

撥備率下降1個基點至1.18%。我們對我們的整體儲備覆蓋率以及面臨壓力的投資組合的覆蓋率感到滿意。最終，我們強大的風險管理框架、嚴格的承保標準和多元化的投資組合有助於防止損失。

Moving to capital, Frank mentioned that we continue to make progress on our 2024 share repurchase plan. As at close of business on July 22, we had repurchased 10.96% of Class A common shares, or 10.2% of total common shares outstanding, for a total price of $2.9 billion. This represents approximately 63% of our Board-approved $3.5 billion repurchase plan from 2024.

談到資本，弗蘭克提到，我們在 2024 年股票回購計畫方面繼續取得進展。截至 7 月 22 日收盤，我們已回購 10.96% 的 A 類普通股，佔已發行普通股總數的 10.2%，總價為 29 億美元。這約占我們董事會批准的 2024 年 35 億美元回購計畫的 63%。

In July 2025, the Board approved an incremental repurchase plan for up to $4 billion in Class A common shares through the end of 2026. We expect to complete the 2024 plan during the third quarter and, immediately following its completion, begin repurchasing shares under the $4 billion plan.

2025 年 7 月，董事會批准了一項增量回購計劃，並在 2026 年底回購最多 40 億美元的 A 類普通股。我們預計將在第三季完成 2024 年計劃，並在完成後立即開始根據 40 億美元的計劃回購股票。

During the past year, repurchases have ranged from approximately $600 million to $900 million per quarter. We expect that repurchases through the end of 2025 and into 2026 will be near the higher end of this range as we manage CET1 towards our target range. The pace will likely slow down when CET1 is closer to our target range, assuming earnings and RWA growth are in line with our forecasts.

在過去的一年中，每季的回購金額約為 6 億美元至 9 億美元。我們預計，隨著我們管理 CET1 以達到目標範圍，到 2025 年底和 2026 年的回購額將接近該範圍的高端。假設收益和風險加權資產成長符合我們的預測，當 CET1 接近我們的目標範圍時，速度可能會放緩。

Share repurchases will continue to be a tool to support capital management activities, providing us with an opportunity to return capital to our shareholders and to be more capital-efficient over time. Although we expect that CET1 will remain above our target range of 10.5% to 11% in 2025, given our current growth expectations and where our capital ratios were to start the year, we believe the new repurchase plan will enable us to methodically manage CET1 down to that level over time as we regularly assess our growth outlook, economic uncertainty, potential regulatory changes, and overall capital deployment.

股票回購將繼續成為支持資本管理活動的工具，為我們提供向股東返還資本並隨著時間的推移提高資本效率的機會。儘管我們預計到 2025 年，CET1 將保持在 10.5% 至 11% 的目標範圍之上，但考慮到我們目前的成長預期以及年初的資本比率，我們相信新的回購計劃將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移有條不紊地將 CET1 降至該水平，因為我們會定期評估我們的成長前景、經濟不確定性、

Given the termination of the FDIC Shared-Loss Agreement, or SLA, early in the second quarter, our reported regulatory capital ratios are lower on an absolute basis. Recall that while the SLA benefited our capital ratio, we always managed capital without the benefit of the SLA, knowing that it only provided a temporary lift. As a result, the termination does not impact our approach to capital management or related actions.

鑑於第二季初 FDIC 共擔損失協議（SLA）的終止，我們報告的監管資本比率絕對值較低。回想一下，雖然 SLA 有利於我們的資本比率，但我們始終在沒有 SLA 好處的情況下管理資本，因為我們知道它只能提供暫時的提升。因此，終止不會影響我們的資本管理方法或相關行動。

The second-quarter CET1 ratio was 12.12%, a decrease of 7 basis points from the first-quarter adjusted CET1 ratio, as the impact from share repurchases slightly outpaced earnings and the modest loan decline I discussed earlier.

第二季的 CET1 比率為 12.12%，較第一季調整後的 CET1 比率下降了 7 個基點，因為股票回購的影響略超過了我之前討論過的收益和貸款的小幅下降。

I will close on page 28 with our third-quarter and full-year 2025 outlook. We continue to monitor the overall macroeconomic environment, but acknowledge that the fluidity of changes makes it difficult to narrow the range of potential impacts on the broader economy and on our business lines and clients. Accordingly, we have not made significant changes to our guidance, but do continue to monitor the environment and how it can impact our performance. If we find that the impacts are likely to have a significant impact on our earnings or growth prospects, we will reflect that within our guidance in future quarters.

我將在第 28 頁結束我們對 2025 年第三季和全年的展望。我們繼續監測整體宏觀經濟環境，但也承認變化的流動性使得縮小對整體經濟以及我們的業務線和客戶的潛在影響範圍變得困難。因此，我們沒有對我們的指導做出重大改變，但會繼續監測環境及其對我們業績的影響。如果我們發現這些影響可能會對我們的獲利或成長前景產生重大影響，我們將在未來幾季的指導中反映這一點。

Starting with the balance sheet, we anticipate loans in the $141 billion to $144 billion range in the third quarter, driven primarily by growth in the General and Commercial Banks and SVB Commercial. In the General Bank, we expect recent trends to abate and are projecting growth in business and commercial loans within the branch network as we move through the back half of 2025. We noted earlier that competition in this space has increased in recent quarters with competitors lowering spreads while overall demand continues to be soft. We continue to work through shifts and strategies to ensure we remain competitive in this space and anticipate higher balances over the next few quarters.

從資產負債表開始，我們預計第三季貸款金額將在 1,410 億美元至 1,440 億美元之間，主要受一般商業銀行和矽谷商業銀行的成長所推動。在通用銀行，我們預計近期趨勢將會減弱，並預計到 2025 年下半年，分行網路內的商業和商業貸款將會成長。我們先前指出，該領域最近幾季的競爭加劇，競爭對手降低了利差，而整體需求持續疲軟。我們將繼續努力透過轉變和策略來確保我們在這一領域保持競爭力，並預計未來幾季的餘額會更高。

We expect Commercial Bank growth will come from our industry verticals as we expect the idiosyncratic paydowns we saw in the second quarter to slow and slow and project origination levels to remain strong. In the SVB Commercial business, we believe we will continue to benefit from growth in the Global Fund Banking business, thanks to the strong pipeline it maintains, but we do remain cautious on the absolute level of growth driven in part to lower line utilization in recent quarters due to the market backdrop.

我們預計商業銀行的成長將來自我們的行業垂直領域，因為我們預計第二季度看到的特殊償還速度將逐漸減緩，並且專案發起水準將保持強勁。在矽谷銀行商業業務中，我們相信我們將繼續受益於全球基金銀行業務的成長，這得益於其保持的強勁管道，但我們對絕對成長水平仍持謹慎態度，部分原因是由於市場背景導致近幾個季度的線路利用率下降。

For the full year, we pulled down our guidance range modestly and are projecting loans in the $143 billion to $146 billion range as we remain cautiously optimistic on absolute loan levels given lower growth in the first half of the year. We expect growth to be driven by the same factors I just mentioned, but we believe that we could see growth pick up in the fourth quarter if the Fed's monetary easing cycle begins to take effect and we see increased levels of VC investment and capital markets activity.

對於全年而言，我們適度下調了指導範圍，預計貸款額將在 1430 億美元至 1460 億美元之間，因為考慮到上半年的增長較低，我們對絕對貸款水平仍持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們預計成長將受到我剛才提到的相同因素的推動，但我們相信，如果聯準會的貨幣寬鬆週期開始生效，並且我們看到風險投資和資本市場活動水平的提高，我們可能會在第四季度看到成長回升。

We expect deposits to be in the $159 billion to $162 billion range in the third quarter, driven primarily by growth in the Direct Bank as we continue to leverage this channel to drive growth in insured core deposits. While the Direct Bank is a higher cost channel, we will benefit here from falling interest rates and believe it will provide us with the strategic agility to continue optimizing our deposit funding base. Encouragingly, we have continued to lower costs in the Direct Bank the past two quarters without a decline in total balances.

我們預計第三季存款額將在 1,590 億美元至 1,620 億美元之間，主要受直接銀行成長的推動，因為我們將繼續利用此管道推動保險核心存款的成長。雖然直接銀行是一種成本較高的管道，但我們將受益於利率下降，並相信它將為我們提供策略靈活性，以繼續優化我們的存款資金基礎。令人鼓舞的是，過去兩季我們持續降低直銷銀行的成本，但總餘額並未減少。

We expect that this growth will be partially offset by a decline in SVB Commercial as continued cash burn and muted public and private investment activity pressures absolute levels of growth. Additionally, we do anticipate some large outflows in the Global Fund Banking business given known client activities, so this could contribute to muted balance growth.

我們預計，由於持續的現金消耗以及公共和私人投資活動的低迷對絕對增長水平造成壓力，這一增長將被矽谷銀行商業業務的下滑部分抵消。此外，根據已知的客戶活動，我們確實預計全球基金銀行業務將出現大量資金流出，因此這可能會導致餘額成長放緩。

We also continue to look at strategies to reduce funding and liquidity costs within this channel by optimizing the mix of funds both on and off balance sheet, which could impact absolute deposit growth levels. Lastly, while we are encouraged by a few recent and successful IPOs, we would discourage drawing a line between these successes and an overall change in the industry.

我們也將繼續研究透過優化表內和表外資金組合來降低該管道內的融資和流動性成本的策略，這可能會影響絕對存款成長水準。最後，雖然最近幾家公司成功的首次公開發行 (IPO) 給我們帶來了鼓舞，但我們不建議將這些成功與整個行業的變化劃上等號。

For the full year, we are revising our deposit guidance lower to the $161 billion to $166 billion range given the lower jump-off point in the second quarter and our shift in loan growth expectations. We expect full-year growth to be driven by similar factors to what I just mentioned and knowledge we have a broad range of possible outcomes on deposit levels which, in part, will be driven by overall earning asset growth.

對於全年而言，考慮到第二季的起跳點較低以及貸款成長預期的轉變，我們將存款指引下調至 1,610 億美元至 1,660 億美元之間。我們預計全年成長將受到與我剛才提到的類似因素的推動，並且我們知道存款水準可能會出現多種結果，而存款水準的某種程度上將受到整體獲利資產成長的推動。

Our interest rate forecast covers a range of zero to two 25 basis points rate cuts in the second half of 2025, with the effective Fed funds rate range declining from 4.25% to 4.5% currently to as low as 3.75% to 4% by the end of the year. While our baseline forecast includes one rate cut, we believe there is a possibility that a broader economic slowdown could lead to additional cuts. However, given stubborn inflationary metrics and possible impacts of macroeconomic policy, we recognize these cuts may not occur. Therefore, we believe it is prudent to provide a range of expectations for the year.

我們的利率預測涵蓋 2025 年下半年零至兩次 25 個基點的降息幅度，有效聯邦基金利率區間將從目前的 4.25% 至 4.5% 下降至年底的 3.75% 至 4%。雖然我們的基本預測包括一次降息，但我們認為，更廣泛的經濟放緩有可能導致進一步降息。然而，鑑於頑固的通膨指標和宏觀經濟政策可能產生的影響，我們認識到這些削減可能不會發生。因此，我們認為對今年做出一系列預期是謹慎的做法。

We expect third-quarter headline net interest income to be relatively stable compared to the second quarter. Our guidance does include the planned impact of share repurchase activity for 2025 under our current share repurchase plan, as well as the incremental share repurchase plan that will begin upon its completion. For the full year, we are tightening our headline net interest income guidance to be in the range of $6.68 billion to $6.88 billion from $6.55 billion to $6.95 billion. The revision reflects the new interest rate curve, as well as the jumping-off point from the second quarter. In either case, as expected, we project that loan accretion will be down by over $200 million for the year compared to 2024.

我們預計第三季的整體淨利息收入與第二季相比相對穩定。我們的指引確實包括了目前股票回購計畫下 2025 年股票回購活動的計畫影響，以及該計畫完成後開始的增量股票回購計畫。對於全年，我們將整體淨利息收入預期從 65.5 億美元至 69.5 億美元收緊至 66.8 億美元至 68.8 億美元之間。此次修訂反映了新的利率曲線以及第二季的起點。無論哪種情況，正如預期的那樣，我們預計今年的貸款成長將比 2024 年減少 2 億多美元。

On credit losses, we anticipate third-quarter net charge-offs in the range of 35 to 45 basis points, down modestly from the range we provided in the second quarter but slightly above our second-quarter results. While second-quarter net charge-offs were lower than expected, we did not have one or two large charge-offs pull through which would have pushed our net charge-off ratio higher.

對於信貸損失，我們預計第三季淨沖銷額將在 35 至 45 個基點之間，略低於我們在第二季提供的範圍，但略高於我們第二季的業績。雖然第二季的淨沖銷額低於預期，但我們並沒有發生一兩次大規模的沖銷，推高我們的淨沖銷率。

In Commercial Real Estate, while rate cuts could ease some of the pressure on borrowers in the general office sector, we do believe losses will remain elevated in the second half of the year even as market disruption may lessen as more companies begin to reinstate office attendance requirements. We also anticipate continued stress in the investor-dependent portfolio for the remainder of 2025.

在商業房地產領域，雖然降息可以減輕一般辦公領域借款人的一些壓力，但我們認為，儘管隨著更多公司開始恢復辦公室出勤要求，市場混亂可能會減少，但下半年的損失仍將居高不下。我們也預計，2025 年剩餘時間內依賴投資者的投資組合仍將面臨壓力。

Overall, VC investment activity was down compared to the prior quarter, but if you remove deals greater than $1 billion, which we believe are outside of our service addressable market, activity levels were relatively stable during the quarter. While additional rate cuts would be a welcome change for this business and there have been a handful of large IPOs, we believe it is still too early to call a bottom in the cycle. The catalyst for buyers to become more acquisitive and for public investors to have an improved appetite for IPOs remain elusive, and continued macroeconomic uncertainty is weighing on activity.

整體而言，創投活動與上一季相比有所下降，但如果剔除我們認為超出我們服務目標市場範圍的 10 億美元以上的交易，本季的活動水準相對穩定。雖然進一步降息對於該行業來說是一個可喜的變化，並且已經有少數大型 IPO，但我們認為現在斷言週期觸底還為時過早。促使買家更加積極收購以及公眾投資者對 IPO 興趣增強的催化劑仍然難以捉摸，持續的宏觀經濟不確定性正在對市場活動造成壓力。

With respect to the full-year range, we are maintaining our guide of 35 to 45 basis points despite the lower jump-off point. This is because we continue to see some lumpiness and losses in the portfolio, full of large deals swinging the ratio, and timing-wise, they can easily fall into one quarter or another.

就全年範圍而言，儘管起點較低，但我們仍維持 35 至 45 個基點的指導。這是因為我們繼續看到投資組合中存在一些波動和損失，其中充滿了大幅波動的交易，而且從時間上看，它們很容易在某個季度出現。

It's important to note that our net charge-off guidance does not include an estimate for the long-term impact of tariffs, given the continued shifts in expectations and the difficulty in determining the full impact on our asset quality. While higher tariffs could drive economic stress in the form of inflation and/or lower growth, we believe the credit risk is manageable. We will continually assess the potential impact on our portfolio, but we do believe its diversity is a strength in this environment.

值得注意的是，鑑於預期的持續變化以及難以確定對我們資產品質的全面影響，我們的淨沖銷指引並不包括對關稅長期影響的估計。儘管關稅上調可能以通貨膨脹和/或成長放緩的形式給經濟帶來壓力，但我們認為信貸風險是可控的。我們將不斷評估對我們投資組合的潛在影響，但我們確實相信，在這種環境下，投資組合的多樣性是一種優勢。

Moving to adjusted non-interest income, we expect to be in the $480 million to $510 million range in the third quarter, aligned with a typical quarter for us. Overall, we continue to see strength in many of our core lines of business such as rail, merchant, card, and wealth.

至於調整後的非利息收入，我們預計第三季將在 4.8 億美元至 5.1 億美元之間，與我們的典型季度持平。總體而言，我們繼續看到鐵路、商家、卡片和財富等許多核心業務線的強勁成長。

Given that we have two quarters behind us, we have tightened our full-year adjusted non-interest income range to $1.97 billion to $2.05 billion. Year-over-year growth continues to be driven by our Rail outlook, which includes a balanced railcar portfolio and a strategic exploration ladder. We also expect continued solid growth in wealth and international fees, thanks to new client acquisition and an increase in flow of funds. I do want to caution that given the changing rate environment, our client derivative positions can fluctuate between quarters, causing some lumpiness in our non-interest income results.

鑑於已經過去兩個季度，我們已將全年調整後非利息收入範圍縮減至19.7億美元至20.5億美元。同比成長繼續受到我們的鐵路展望的推動，其中包括平衡的軌道車輛組合和戰略探索階梯。我們也預計，由於新客戶的獲得和資金流的增加，財富和國際費用將繼續穩步增長。我確實想提醒的是，鑑於利率環境的變化，我們的客戶衍生性商品部位可能會在各個季度之間波動，導致我們的非利息收入結果出現一些波動。

Moving to adjusted non-interest expense, we expect the third quarter to be up modestly compared to the second quarter, as some large projects are placed in service and we continue to invest in our risk and technology capabilities to ensure Category 3 readiness and to help simplify and optimize our platforms to allow us to scale efficiently in the future. Looking at the full year, we tightened our adjusted non-interest expense range to $5.1 billion to $5.2 billion. Exercising disciplined expense management while making opportunistic investments through the cycle and technology risk management and our associates is a top priority for us, given headwinds to net interest income.

轉向調整後的非利息支出，我們預計第三季將較第二季小幅上漲，因為一些大型專案已投入使用，我們將繼續投資於風險和技術能力，以確保做好第 3 類準備，並幫助簡化和優化我們的平台，使我們能夠在未來有效擴展。縱觀全年，我們將調整後的非利息支出範圍收窄至 51 億美元至 52 億美元。鑑於淨利息收入面臨阻力，實施嚴格的費用管理，同時透過週期和技術風險管理以及我們的員工進行機會性投資是我們的首要任務。

Our adjusted efficiency ratio is expected to remain in the upper 50% range in 2025, as the impact of the Fed rate cut cycle puts downward pressure on net interest margin and we continue to make investments into areas that will help us scale to Category 3 status when we cross that threshold. Longer term, our goal remains to operate in the mid-50s. Finally, both for the third quarter and the full year 2025, we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 25% to 26%, which is exclusive of any discrete items.

由於聯準會降息週期的影響給淨利差帶來了下行壓力，我們預計到 2025 年，調整後的效率比率將保持在 50% 左右的較高水平，而且我們將繼續對那些有助於我們在跨過該門檻時擴大到第 3 類地位的領域進行投資。從長遠來看，我們的目標仍然是在 1950 年代中期實現營運。最後，對於第三季和 2025 年全年，我們預計稅率將在 25% 至 26% 之間，不包括任何單一項目。

To conclude, our second-quarter results are reflective of the strength and resilience of our diversified business model. Thanks to our long-term focus, continued investments in our business, and strong risk management framework, we're well positioned to continue delivering value to our clients, customers, communities, and shareholders.

總而言之，我們的第二季業績反映了我們多元化商業模式的實力和彈性。由於我們的長期關注、對業務的持續投資以及強大的風險管理框架，我們有能力繼續為我們的客戶、顧客、社區和股東創造價值。

I will now turn it over to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of the call.

現在我將把電話交給接線員，請接線員提供有關通話問答部分的指示。

(Operator Instructions) Casey Haire, Autonomous Research.

（操作員指示）Casey Haire，自主研究。

Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. So I guess the first question would just be on the loan growth. Obviously, the paydowns are tough to forecast, but if I heard you correctly, I think you said the SVB pipeline was up $9 billion. Just wondering if --

偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。所以我猜第一個問題就是關於貸款成長。顯然，償還金額很難預測，但如果我沒聽錯的話，我想您說的是 SVB 管道增加了 90 億美元。只是想知道--

Guys, give us just one second. We're having some audio issues on our side. (technical difficulty)

夥計們，請給我們一秒鐘。我們這邊遇到了一些音訊問題。（技術難度）

Yeah, great. Thanks. So just a question on the loan growth outlook. If I heard you correctly, I think you said SVB pipelines are $9.5 billion and yet you have loans running either flat or up modestly in the third quarter. Just a little more color on what's driving that, what seems to be a conservative outlook.

是的，很棒。謝謝。所以這只是一個關於貸款成長前景的問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，我想您說的是矽谷銀行的管道資金為 95 億美元，但第三季的貸款卻持平或略有增加。稍微解釋一下推動這現象的原因，這似乎是一種保守的觀點。

Yeah. On the $9.5 billion, that's related to Global Fund Banking. So that pipeline is actually up from what we saw in the first quarter. So we're very optimistic on the development there. Yeah, I think utilization has pulled in slightly, and so I think we're being a little bit conservative on kind of what that growth might portend into, but the underlying really fundamentals are really strong in that business. I think elsewhere, we saw some elevated prepayments, kind of idiosyncratic in nature, in industry verticals, but we feel really good on where we're positioned in tech, media, telecom, energy, and healthcare.

是的。這 95 億美元與全球基金銀行有關。因此，該管道實際上比我們第一季看到的有所增加。因此我們對那裡的發展非常樂觀。是的，我認為利用率略有上升，因此我認為我們對這種增長可能預示著什麼持有點保守的態度，但該業務的基本面確實非常強勁。我認為在其他領域，我們看到一些垂直行業的預付款增加，這種性質有些特殊，但我們對自己在科技、媒體、電信、能源和醫療保健領域的定位感到非常滿意。

Okay, great. And then, can we get some updated thoughts on the FDIC purchase money note? I know Fed cuts kind of keep getting pushed out, but I mean, forward curve does have -- add that 100 bps by the end of next year. So just what is the -- how do you guys envision this playing out and how much FHLB capacity do you intend to use in terms of retiring this funding source?

好的，太好了。那麼，我們能否了解一些關於 FDIC 購買貨幣票據的最新想法？我知道聯準會降息的步伐一直在推遲，但我的意思是，遠期曲線確實已經——到明年年底增加 100 個基點。那麼，你們究竟該如何設想這種情況會發生，以及在退出這項資金來源方面，你們打算使用多少 FHLB 容量？

Okay. I'll take that one, and we'll let Tom amplify here. But declining interest rates, especially to the extent that the forward curve is implying, would precipitate some paydown of the note in 2026. We don't really anticipate any of that in 2025. So once that arbitrage is alleviated, it would precipitate a paydown.

好的。我接受這個，然後讓湯姆在這裡進一步闡述。但利率下降，尤其是遠期曲線所暗示的下降幅度，將導致 2026 年部分債券的償還。我們確實不認為 2025 年會出現任何此類情況。因此，一旦套利現象得到緩解，就會引發償還。

And in terms of just order of preference, we would certainly like to first use excess liquidity generated by preferably core deposit growth as the first source of repayment. Then, we would move down to broker deposits, and then we'd move to FHLB advances, and then finally, long-term debt. But we feel really good about our positioning there, our liquidity and ability with contingent funding sources to pay that note off.

就優先順序而言，我們當然希望先使用核心存款成長所產生的過剩流動性作為第一還款來源。然後，我們將轉向經紀人存款，然後轉向聯邦住房貸款銀行預付款，最後是長期債務。但我們對我們的定位、流動性以及利用緊急資金來源償還債務的能力感到非常滿意。

Tom, would you like to add anything to that?

湯姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I would say to sort of amplify that, since the acquisition of SVB, we paid off just under $10 billion worth of [bank] advances as we took on the purchase money notes. Obviously, we have capacity there. That being said, we prefer to use deposits. I think at this point, we've built excess liquidity in sort of the $11 billion range today.

不。我想進一步說明的是，自從收購矽谷銀行以來，我們透過購買貨幣票據償還了價值近 100 億美元的 [銀行] 預付款。顯然，我們在那裡有能力。話雖如此，我們還是更喜歡使用存款。我認為目前我們已經建立了大約 110 億美元的過剩流動性。

To Craig's point, we're still earning a positive arbitrage. We don't really see a purpose to pay the purchase money note down early, but as we look out over time and rates change, that may change. I think over time, we'd like to keep the positive -- to get that back up to funding, sort of 90% to 95% versus the 81% that it is today as a percentage of total funding.

正如克雷格所說，我們仍在賺取正套利。我們確實不認為提前償還購買款項有什麼意義，但隨著時間的推移和利率的變化，這種情況可能會改變。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們希望保持積極的勢頭——將其恢復到資金佔總資金的 90% 到 95% 左右，而目前這一比例為 81%。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

Steven Alexopoulos, TD Cowen.

史蒂文·亞歷克斯普洛斯（Steven Alexopoulos），TD Cowen。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. I want to first start and follow up on Craig's comments on SVB, maybe -- hopefully Marc's on the call. It sounds like you guys are pretty cautious with the outlook for SVB. And when I look at what the equity markets did in 2Q, historically, that's a very positive leading indicator for the SVB business. When you combine that with what we're seeing with AI more broadly, I was curious, are you seeing an increase in terms of the number of term sheets out in the market? And are your VC clients starting to get a bit more bullish here when it comes to putting all that dry powder to work?

嘿。大家早安。我想先開始並跟進 Craig 對 SVB 的評論，也許——希望 Marc 在電話中。聽起來你們對矽谷銀行的前景非常謹慎。當我回顧第二季股票市場的表現時，從歷史上看，這對矽谷銀行的業務來說是一個非常積極的領先指標。當你將其與我們在人工智慧領域更廣泛地看到的情況結合起來時，我很好奇，你是否看到市場上的條款清單數量增加？當談到將所有資金投入使用時，您的創投客戶是否開始變得更加樂觀？

Marc, do you want to take that one?

馬克，你想拿那個嗎？

Craig, would you like me to take that?

克雷格，你想讓我拿走它嗎？

Yes. Go ahead, Marc.

是的。繼續吧，馬克。

Happy to take that. Good morning, Steve. Great to hear from you. Sorry about that. I appear to have put myself on mute accidentally.

很高興接受這個。早安，史蒂夫。很高興收到你的來信。很抱歉。我似乎無意中將自己靜音了。

Getting back to your question, Steve, the activity in the second quarter, June was definitely, as noted by Craig, an encouraging uptick, particularly the IPO activity I think you referenced there. At the same time, I think there is cautious optimism as to whether this is truly the beginning of something, and you see that caution, I think, reflected in our continued guidance in our comments today.

回到你的問題，史蒂夫，正如克雷格所指出的，第二季度（6 月）的活動肯定是一個令人鼓舞的上升趨勢，特別是我認為你提到的 IPO 活動。同時，我認為人們對這是否真的是某件事的開始持謹慎樂觀的態度，我認為，你會看到這種謹慎在我們今天的評論中的持續指導中有所體現。

The window for IPO certainly seems to be partially open, but at the same time, the bar to go out remains pretty high. It's expensive to be public, and capital, clearly as evidenced by venture investment in the second quarter, remains available for good later stage companies. And so unclear whether this will really be the start of more IPOs, I think it's reasonable to think that we could see as many in the second half as we saw in the first half, but not really expecting a lot there.

首次公開發行 (IPO) 的窗口似乎確實已部分打開，但與此同時，上市門檻仍然很高。上市的成本很高，而第二季的創投明顯表明，優秀的後期公司仍有足夠的資本。目前還不清楚這是否真的會是更多 IPO 的開始，我認為我們有理由相信，下半年我們可能會看到與上半年一樣多的 IPO，但實際上我們不會期待太多。

And then to your point about term sheets, and again, as evidenced by the investment in the second quarter, there is activity in putting that dry powder to work. But most of that activity is very much skewed towards later stage deals and, as mentioned earlier, the mega $1 billion-plus financings that generally aren't really our target. At the same time, on the earlier stage end of the spectrum, the pace remains muted as it has for going on three years now.

然後回到您關於條款清單的觀點，正如第二季度的投資所證明的那樣，我們正在積極地將這些資金投入使用。但大部分活動都偏向後期交易，如前所述，10 億美元以上的巨額融資通常不是我們的真正目標。同時，在早期階段，步伐依然緩慢，就像三年前一樣。

And so again, I think there is hope, if you will, among the venture community and certainly ourselves that spring is springing and we're going to see gradual improvement from here. But there, again, are so many mixed signals, so much economic uncertainty hanging over everything, that we remain on balance, cautious, though somewhat encouraged.

因此，我再次認為，創投界，當然還有我們自己，都抱持著希望，春天即將到來，我們將從這裡看到逐步的改善。但是，再次出現瞭如此多的混合信號，如此多的經濟不確定性籠罩著一切，因此我們仍然保持謹慎，儘管多少有些鼓舞。

Got it. That's great color, Marc. And maybe to follow up, for Craig, so it sounded like the deposit growth that you're guiding to include an assumption for SVB deposits to decline -- could you -- which demonstrates that conservatism and the outflow you talked about. Craig, could you just size for us what you're looking for for SVB deposits? Like what's inside of that deposit guide for the rest of this year? Thanks.

知道了。馬克，顏色真棒。也許可以跟進一下，對於 Craig 來說，這聽起來像是您指導的存款增長包含了對 SVB 存款下降的假設——您可以嗎——這表明了您談到的保守主義和資金流出。克雷格，您能否為我們簡單介紹一下您對 SVB 存款的要求？那麼今年剩餘時間的存款指南都有什麼內容呢？謝謝。

Okay. I'm going to let Elliot address that one.

好的。我打算讓艾略特來解決這個問題。

Yeah. Steve, I mean -- yeah, Steve, I think on the SVB guide for deposits, really kind of want to reiterate what Marc said. I think we're cautiously optimistic. As we kind of landed in the second quarter, just looking at some larger deals, funded on the GFB side, we do expect some outflows, and so I think that is reflected in some of the deposit guidance.

是的。史蒂夫，我的意思是——是的，史蒂夫，我認為在矽谷銀行的存款指南中，我真的想重申馬克所說的話。我認為我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。當我們進入第二季時，只看一些由 GFB 資助的較大交易，我們確實預計會有一些資金流出，所以我認為這反映在一些存款指導中。

Yeah, I'd say otherwise, I mean, client acquisition has been good. We've actually seen an uptick over the past few quarters. So generally, pretty flat-ish for the rest of the year with a little bit of growth, but I would color that as cautiously optimistic.

是的，我想說的是，客戶獲取情況一直都很好。我們實際上在過去幾個季度看到了上升趨勢。因此總體而言，今年剩餘時間的經濟成長將較為平穩，略有成長，但我認為應保持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Got it. So flat inside the guidance. Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions.

知道了。指導內部如此平坦。完美的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Oh, great. Good morning. A lot of talk about deregulation in the markets. I'm interested what that means for your company over the near to medium term. And Craig, I think you've talked in the past about building the cost to be Cat 2 compliant, but is that mid-single digit still kind of expensive growth, is that what you're thinking? Thanks.

噢，太好了。早安.關於市場放鬆管制的討論很多。我感興趣的是這對貴公司近期和中期而言意味著什麼。克雷格，我想您以前曾談到過符合 Cat 2 標準的成本，但中等個位數的增長是否仍然是一種昂貴的增長，您是這麼想的嗎？謝謝。

I missed the last part of the question, Chris. Can you -- do you mind repeating that?

我錯過了問題的最後一部分，克里斯。您介意再說一次嗎？

Oh, sure. The mid-single-digit expense outlook that you've talked about as you get ready for Cat 2.

哦，當然。在為 Cat 2 做好準備時，您談到了中等個位數的支出前景。

Yes. I think you can expect year-over-year expenses to range in that mid to up -- year over year mid to high-single-digit percent growth, I think we're maintaining that level of guidance. And really, the incremental expenses that we've incurred over the last year or so are directly related to improving our risk management and technology capabilities commensurate with a Category 3 firm. So we don't expect that our expenses will be flat like they were in first and second quarters, that they would probably move up in that mid to high, mid to upper-single-digit range moving forward annualized as we ready for Category 3.

是的。我認為您可以預期同比支出將在中等至高個位數百分比成長率之間，我認為我們將保持這一指導水準。實際上，我們在過去一年左右產生的增量費用與提高與 3 類公司相當的風險管理和技術能力直接相關。因此，我們不認為我們的支出會像第一季和第二季那樣持平，隨著我們為第三類支出做好準備，我們的支出很可能會在年化成長率中上升到中高、中高個位數的區間。

Okay. And then, there was obviously a large deal in your market overnight. Any thoughts on deposit opportunity? I know it's early, but any strategic thoughts you might have? Thanks.

好的。然後，你的市場顯然在一夜之間出現了一筆大交易。對於存款機會有什麼想法嗎？我知道現在還早，但您有什麼戰略想法嗎？謝謝。

Well, I would just say, Chris, we do well picking our spots with deposits. We've exhibited over time that we can grow deposits on a consistent basis, so I don't really see that transaction as necessarily hindering our ability to do that. Although just generally, with the M&A market, we're encouraged that there's an uptick in activity there, but we feel really good about our deposit growth prospects based on our ability to grow deposits on a sustained basis regardless of competition.

好吧，我只想說，克里斯，我們在選擇存款地點方面做得很好。隨著時間的推移，我們已經證明我們可以持續增加存款，因此我並不認為這筆交易必然會妨礙我們實現這一目標的能力。儘管總體而言，我們對併購市場活動的增加感到鼓舞，但基於我們無論競爭如何都能持續增加存款的能力，我們對存款成長前景感到非常樂觀。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德·馮·吉茲基，德意志銀行。

Hi, guys. Good morning. [As the NIM], could you just talk to what the exit rate for the margin could be in 4Q if rates on the short end remain unchanged versus if we get two rate cuts by the end of the year or the one assumed in your baseline forecast?

嗨，大家好。早安. [作為NIM]，您能否談談，如果短期利率保持不變，第四季度的保證金退出利率會是多少？如果年底前降息兩次，或依照您基準預測的一次降息，第四季的保證金退出利率會是多少？

Sure. And here, you're referring to NIM?

當然。這裡，您指的是 NIM？

Yes.

是的。

So from a range of zero to two rate cuts in 2025, if there's two rate cuts, we'd anticipate maybe one in September, one in December, the fourth-quarter exit margin range would decline from 3.26% in the second quarter to the mid-3.10s to high-3.20s on headline NIM and NIM ex-accretion from the mid-3.10s to mid-3s to high-3.10s. So we started at mid-3.10s second quarter, ex-accretion NIM would be a range of mid-3s to mid-3.10s.

因此，如果2025年降息0到2次，如果降息兩次，我們預計9月和12月各一次，那麼第四季度的退出利差範圍將從第二季度的3.26%下降到3.10%左右到3.20%左右，而淨息差扣除增值部分將從左右到3.10%左右到3.10%左右。因此，我們以第二季3.10%左右的利率作為基準，扣除增值部分後的淨利差將在3.10%左右到3.10%左右之間。

Okay, great. And just a follow-up, just generally about -- oh, sorry. Just to follow up, just on competitive pressures, interestingly, during the quarter, a lot of regional bank peers noted seeing increased competitive pressure in deposit pricing, just given where we are in the rate cycle and pushing out of rate cuts. Obviously, your deposit betas continue to creep higher, your costs keep lower.

好的，太好了。這只是後續問題，一般來說 - 哦，抱歉。有趣的是，就競爭壓力而言，在本季度，許多地區性銀行同業注意到存款定價的競爭壓力增加，因為我們正處於利率週期，並且正在推行降息。顯然，您的存款貝塔係數會繼續攀升，而您的成本則會持續降低。

I think you noted in the General Bank you're implementing some new deposit growth tactics for short and near-term and long-term opportunities. And then I know in the General Bank, on the loan side, you also mentioned some competitive pressures increasing there. So I was wondering if you could just talk through some of the pressures that you might be seeing on the deposit and the loan side.

我想您已經注意到，通用銀行正在針對短期、近期和長期機會實施一些新的存款成長策略。然後我知道，在通用銀行，在貸款方面，您也提到了那裡的競爭壓力正在增加。所以我想知道您是否可以談談您在存款和貸款方面可能遇到的一些壓力。

Yes. I think -- and this is Tom here -- I would say on the deposit side, I mean, as you mentioned, we've been able to continue to move our beta up, and that really, I think, speaks to what Craig mentioned earlier. We feel good about our competitive position in sort of the markets we're in there, and we'll continue to do the best we can to manage those interest expense numbers, obviously.

是的。我認為——我是湯姆——我想說，在存款方面，我的意思是，正如你提到的，我們已經能夠繼續提高我們的測試版，我認為這確實說明了克雷格之前提到的內容。我們對自己在所處市場中的競爭地位感到滿意，我們將繼續盡最大努力管理這些利息支出數字。

I think on the credit side, we've seen a little bit of an uptick, I think, just sort of across the board. Last year, I would say we were probably one of the few banks that were out there lending more broadly, and I think we're seeing a little more participants in there today. But again, we feel like we're well positioned, and as Elliot mentioned earlier, we had a couple of large payoffs in some of the verticals that we maybe didn't plan for. And again, I think we're in good shape from an activity and sort of forward look there.

我認為在信貸方面，我們看到了一點上漲，我認為，只是全方位的上漲。去年，我想說我們可能是少數幾家提供更廣泛貸款的銀行之一，而且我認為今天我們看到更多的參與者。但是，我們再次感覺到我們處於有利地位，正如艾略特之前提到的，我們在一些垂直領域中獲得了一些我們可能沒有計劃到的巨額回報。而且，我認為從活動和前瞻性來看，我們的狀況良好。

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks, Bernard.

謝謝，伯納德。

Nick Holowko, UBS.

瑞銀的 Nick Holowko。

Hi. Good morning. Maybe one other question on competitive pressures. So it seems like there's been a pickup in new applications for bank charters over the past couple of months, including some that seem to be aimed at serving some of the same ecosystem that SVB has traditionally served.

你好。早安.也許還有一個關於競爭壓力的問題。因此，過去幾個月來，銀行執照的新申請似乎有所增加，其中一些申請似乎旨在服務於矽谷銀行傳統上服務的相同生態系統。

So do you have any thoughts on the developments that we're seeing there? And of course, I know it's very early days, but are there any risks that you could foresee on the talent front, given some of the higher profile technology aims tie to some of these announcements? Thank you.

那麼您對於我們所看到的發展有什麼看法？當然，我知道現在還為時過早，但考慮到一些更高調的技術目標與這些公告相關，您是否可以預見人才方面有任何風險？謝謝。

Marc, do you have any thoughts on that as it impacts SVB competition?

馬克，您對此有何看法，因為這會影響 SVB 的競爭嗎？

Sure. I would be happy to take that.

當然。我很樂意接受這個。

So starting just competition more broadly, and as we talked about in past calls, the SVB business continues to have lots of competition, both bank, non-bank, fintech, et cetera, across the segments of our business. And so one more competitor is, in a lot of ways, nothing really new. In this particular instance, thinking about banks at the application stage will take a while to become additional competition for us is the first thing.

因此，從更廣泛的角度開始競爭，正如我們在過去的電話會議中討論的那樣，矽谷銀行業務在各個業務領域繼續面臨激烈的競爭，包括銀行、非銀行、金融科技等。因此，從很多方面來看，增加一個競爭對手並不是什麼新鮮事。在這種特殊情況下，在申請階段考慮銀行需要一段時間才能成為我們的額外競爭對手是首要的事情。

And then, thinking specifically about maybe the charter you've got in mind, I would just say here that SVB has offered traditional banking services to Web3 companies for many years through our national fintech practice, and think we are very well positioned to expand those offerings over time to serve our clients' digital asset needs. And so I think we and everybody else focused on the innovation economy, focused on crypto and changing regulations there, I think, is similarly enthusiastic about the opportunity there.

然後，具體考慮一下您可能想到的章程，我只想說，矽谷銀行多年來一直透過我們的國家金融科技業務向 Web3 公司提供傳統銀行服務，並且認為我們完全有能力隨著時間的推移擴展這些服務，以滿足客戶的數位資產需求。因此，我認為我們和其他所有關注創新經濟、關注加密貨幣和改變那裡的法規的人，同樣對那裡的機會充滿熱情。

And so I think like we've always had, we'll continue to have competition, and we will continue to, I think, in the face of that, execute on our own game. And I think by extension, as Tom has already offered, we feel pretty good about our positioning and our ability to capture our fair share.

因此我認為，就像我們一直以來那樣，我們將繼續面臨競爭，我認為，面對競爭，我們將繼續執行我們自己的比賽。而且我認為，正如湯姆已經提到的那樣，我們對自己的定位和獲得公平份額的能力感到非常滿意。

Very helpful. Thank you. And just as a follow-up, you mentioned and highlighted the traditional banking services you've got in the Web3 ecosystem and some of the -- clearly, a lot of the momentum here relates back to the crypto environment more broadly. Outside of like traditional banking services, are there any other aspirations that you have as you think about that space over the next couple of years? Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。作為後續，您提到並強調了您在 Web3 生態系統中獲得的傳統銀行服務，以及其中一些服務——顯然，這裡的許多勢頭與更廣泛的加密環境有關。除了傳統的銀行服務之外，您對未來幾年的銀行服務領域還有其他期望嗎？謝謝。

Well, I would just say --

好吧，我只想說--

Marc, I'll start on that. Others may -- go ahead.

馬克，我先從那裡開始。其他人可以——繼續。

Go ahead, Marc. You go ahead, Marc, and I'll amplify anything that needs to be added.

繼續吧，馬克。你繼續吧，馬克，我會補充說明任何需要補充的內容。

Great. I would just say this is a fluid dialog, and so I'm going to refrain from talking about specific services that we may elect to offer in the future. But again, we'll just end on the very well positioned hundreds of clients in the space. And so as we determine what makes the most sense and where we can best differentiate ourselves from other offerings, that's where I think you should expect to see us over time.

偉大的。我只想說這是一個流暢的對話，所以我將避免談論我們將來可能選擇提供的具體服務。但同樣，我們最終只會看到該領域數百名處於非常有利位置的客戶。因此，當我們確定什麼是最有意義的，以及我們在哪裡能夠最好地將自己與其他產品區分開來時，我想這就是您應該期望隨著時間的推移看到我們的地方。

I'll pass it to you, Craig.

我會把它傳給你，克雷格。

Yeah. I think you said it well, Marc.

是的。我認為你說得很好，馬克。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯馬裡納克、珍妮蒙哥馬利史考特。

Thanks. Good morning. Craig, I want to ask you about the Direct Bank and will the proportion of those deposits grow over time relative to the whole balance sheet.

謝謝。早安.克雷格，我想問您有關直接銀行的問題，這些存款在整個資產負債表中的比例是否會隨著時間的推移而增長。

Yes. I mean, they certainly have grown since we purchased CIT or acquired CIT. I would expect them to continue to do so, but we obviously would rather grow deposits in lower cost channels, although we're okay with the spreads of those deposits relative to our investment portfolio loans, et cetera. So we do anticipate, if you look at our deposit outlook, double-digit percentage in growth in that channel going into 2026.

是的。我的意思是，自從我們購買或收購 CIT 以來，它們確實有所成長。我希望他們繼續這樣做，但我們顯然寧願在成本較低的管道增加存款，儘管我們對這些存款相對於我們的投資組合貸款等的利差感到滿意。因此，如果您看一下我們的存款前景，我們確實預計到 2026 年該通路的成長率將達到兩位數。

Okay, great. Thank you for that. And then just a quick follow-up on the railcar business. Do you see that business stable from here, or is there still opportunities to grow it further?

好的，太好了。謝謝你。然後我們來快速回顧一下鐵路車輛業務。您認為從現在起業務是否穩定，還是還有機會進一步發展？

Yeah. Great question, Chris. I mean, I think we're very encouraged with where we are. I mean, I think the utilization, having stayed up, we're still close to 97%. We've had 15 quarters of repricing, which Craig mentioned. So I think from really kind of a revenue expansion side, we do see further opportunity there in that runway to continue.

是的。很好的問題，克里斯。我的意思是，我認為我們對目前的狀況感到非常鼓舞。我的意思是，我認為利用率一直保持在高位，仍然接近 97%。正如 Craig 所提到的，我們已經進行了 15 個季度的重新定價。因此我認為從收入擴張的角度來看，我們確實看到了繼續發展的進一步機會。

And then last, I mean, I think from an expansion standpoint, we continue to invest in that business each year, I'd say, generally, $300 million to $500 million in added assets. So there is, I think, further runway from a revenue standpoint, but obviously, we'll kind of keep in tune with kind of the economy and everything going there.

最後，我的意思是，我認為從擴張的角度來看，我們每年都會繼續對該業務進行投資，一般來說，增加 3 億至 5 億美元的資產。因此，我認為從收入的角度來看還有進一步的發展空間，但顯然，我們會與經濟和一切發展保持一致。

Great, Elliot. Thank you very much. Thank you, Craig, as well.

太好了，艾略特。非常感謝。也謝謝你，克雷格。

Thank you for your questions.

感謝您的提問。

Manuel Navas, D.A. Davidson.

曼努埃爾·納瓦斯、D.A.戴維森。

Hey. Good morning. Can you update where you feel the NIM-NII trough could be next year and kind of what are the assumptions around it?

嘿。早安.您能否更新一下您認為明年 NIM-NII 低谷可能出現的位置以及圍繞它的假設是什麼？

Yeah. It obviously depends on zero, one, or two rate cuts in 2025. If we have zero rate cuts, we've pretty much already troughed with the exception of NIM headline. That would be one quarter -- 1Q 26. One or two cuts just moves all the troughs, whether you're looking at net interest income headline or ex-accretion or NIM headline ex-accretion, out to the first quarter of '26.

是的。這顯然取決於 2025 年降息零次、一次或兩次。如果我們沒有降息，那麼除了淨利息收益率 (NIM) 總體水平之外，我們基本上已經觸底了。那將是一個季度——26 年第一季。一兩次降息只會將所有的低谷（無論你是看淨利息收入總額還是扣除增值部分，還是淨利息收入總額扣除增值部分）轉移到 2026 年第一季。

I appreciate that. And what do you include in terms of debt issuance to satisfy TLAC in your NII planning?

我很感激。在您的 NII 規劃中，您在發行債務以滿足 TLAC 方麵包括了哪些內容？

We have pretty modest expectations when it comes from pure -- what would be LTD requirements for us, as we've not seen a final rule there yet. What we do include, though, obviously -- and we've talked about it with the share purchase plan -- we're trying to optimize the capital stack over time, which will include us looking to potentially issue new instruments there to sort of get the slope between the CET1 and total capital ratios to look a little more efficient.

當它純粹是 LTD 的要求時，我們的期望值相當低，因為我們還沒有看到最終規則。不過，我們顯然已經包括了這一點——我們已經在股票購買計劃中討論過這個問題——我們正在嘗試隨著時間的推移優化資本堆棧，這將包括我們希望在那裡發行新的工具，以使 CET1 和總資本比率之間的斜率看起來更有效率。

Also, it's subject to final --

此外，最終--

So it's come down from last time -- so it's come down a little bit in the assumptions from -- we were looking at maybe $10 billion in issuance. I know you did some earlier in the year, too.

因此，與上次相比有所下降 — — 因此，與上次相比，假設有所下降 — — 我們預計發行量可能為 100 億美元。我知道你今年早些時候也做過一些。

Yeah, that assumes the LTD rule would come into play in its current form, which the 6% to RWA was our binding constraint in that. Obviously, pending a final rule, it's hard to estimate what our final issuance would have to be to meet those requirements.

是的，這假設 LTD 規則將以其當前形式發揮作用，其中 6% 的 RWA 是我們的約束條件。顯然，在等待最終規則的過程中，很難估計我們的最終發行量需要達到多少才能滿足這些要求。

I appreciate that. Can I sneak in one more? Deposit betas have been really, really impressive. You have targets in your deck. Are you just going to keep pushing to raise them? Because it seems like you're already at the cycle levels. Just kind of -- you have a lot of success in the Direct Bank. Where can the deposit betas go?

我很感激。我可以再偷偷進去一個嗎？存款測試版確實令人印象深刻。你的牌組中有目標。您是否會繼續努力提高它們？因為看起來你已經處於週期水平。只是有點——你在直接銀行取得了巨大的成功。存款測試版可以去哪裡？

The most difficult part about answering that question is obviously depending on what rates forecasts do. I think what you've seen is we've -- I mentioned earlier -- done what we can to keep managing interest expense, as rate cuts has not been done in recent time. And if we keep that for another couple quarters, we'll continue to keep working that beta higher.

回答這個問題最困難的部分顯然取決於利率預測。我想你已經看到，我們——我之前提到過——已經盡了一切努力來繼續管理利息支出，因為最近沒有降息。如果我們再保持這種狀態幾個季度，我們將繼續提高測試版。

Obviously, if the Fed starts cutting again, I would expect a similar behavior like you've seen in the past, where we sort of lag a little bit going into it and then start catching up over time. So it's really more about when that cut cycle stops, but obviously looking for as much upside there as we can.

顯然，如果聯準會再次開始降息，我預計會出現與過去類似的行為，即我們在開始時稍微滯後一些，然後隨著時間的推移開始趕上。因此，這實際上更多的是關於減產週期何時結束，但顯然我們會盡可能地尋找上行空間。

I think you're making a good point that the betas are approaching terminal betas that we saw in the uprate environment. So that's a good observation.

我認為您說得對，測試版正在接近我們在升級環境中看到的終端測試版。這是一個很好的觀察。

Thank you for the time.

感謝您抽出時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our host, Ms. Deanna Hart, for any closing remarks.

我目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給我們的主持人迪安娜·哈特女士，請她做最後發言。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining our earnings call today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have any further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. We hope you have a great rest of your day.

偉大的。感謝大家參加我們今天的收益電話會議。我們感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。如果您有任何其他問題或需要更多信息，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。我們希望您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝您有美好的一天。