First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares third- quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，並歡迎參加 First Citizens BancShares 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示） 提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下本次電話會議的主持人，投資者關係主管 Deanna Hart 女士。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

Welcome to First Citizens' third-quarter earnings call.

歡迎參加 First Citizens 第三季財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Frank Holding；和財務長克雷格·尼克斯。

They will provide third quarter business and financial updates referencing our earnings call presentation, which you can find on our website.

他們將參考我們的財報電話會議簡報提供第三季的業務和財務更新，您可以在我們的網站上找到該簡報。

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。

We assume no obligation to update such statements.

我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。

These risks are outlined on page 3 of the presentation.

簡報的第 3 頁概述了這些風險。

We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in Section 5 of the presentation.

這些措施與最直接可比較的 GAAP 措施的調整可以在簡報的第 5 節中找到。

Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third parties.

最後，First Citizens 不負責、不編輯或保證第三方提供的收入記錄的準確性。

I will now turn it over to Frank.

我現在將把它交給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna.

謝謝你，迪安娜。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call.

大家早安，歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議。

I'll make some brief comments about our third quarter results, and then I'll turn it over to Craig to review our results in more detail before we take your questions.

我將對我們第三季的業績做一些簡短的評論，然後我會將其交給克雷格，以更詳細地審查我們的業績，然後再回答您的問題。

Starting on page 6 of our investor presentation.

從我們投資者介紹的第 6 頁開始。

We delivered another quarter of strong financial results with adjusted earnings per share of $45.87. Our net interest margin was resilient despite declines in accretion income, and we remain encouraged by the stability of our deposit base.

我們又一個季度實現了強勁的財務業績，調整後每股收益為 45.87 美元。儘管加值收入下降，我們的淨利差仍保持彈性，而且我們的存款基礎的穩定性仍然令我們感到鼓舞。

We saw continued deposit growth in the General Bank and SVB commercial balances were up modestly over the prior quarter.

我們看到綜合銀行存款持續成長，SVB 商業餘額較上一季小幅成長。

We are pleased with the stability of the SVB deposit franchise, demonstrating the competitive advantage we maintain in the innovation economy.

我們對 SVB 存款業務的穩定性感到滿意，這證明了我們在創新經濟中保持的競爭優勢。

Loans declined during the quarter, predominantly by a reduction in the global fund banking portfolio as repayment levels outpaced new loan origination and draw activity.

本季貸款下降，主要是由於還款水準超過了新貸款發放和提款活動，導致全球基金銀行業務組合減少。

However, the pipeline remains strong in this business and average loan outstandings were up over the second quarter.

然而，該業務的管道仍然強勁，平均貸款未償還額較第二季有所上升。

The decline in GFB was partially offset by mid and upper single digit annualized percentage growth in the general and commercial banks respectively.

GFB 的下降被普通銀行和商業銀行的年化百分比中位數和高個位數成長部分抵銷。

While net charge-offs ticked up modestly over the second quarter, overall credit remains in good shape.

儘管第二季淨沖銷小幅上升，但整體信貸狀況仍然良好。

Consistent with previous quarters, net charge-offs were mostly concentrated in the general office, investor dependent and small ticket leasing portfolios.

與前幾季一致，淨沖銷主要集中在一般辦公室、投資人依賴型和小額租賃組合。

We continue to proactively review our portfolios to identify potential issues early on and prudent credit risk management will remain a priority for us.

我們將繼續積極審查我們的投資組合，以便及早發現潛在問題，審慎的信用風險管理仍將是我們的首要任務。

Our capital and liquidity positions remained strong during the quarter and continue to be a source of strength.

我們的資本和流動性部位在本季度保持強勁，並繼續成為實力的來源。

We're pleased with the progress we made under our share repurchase plan and during the third quarter, we repurchased over 350,000 shares of Class A common stock for a total price of approximately $700 million.

我們對股票回購計畫所取得的進展感到滿意，在第三季度，我們回購了超過 350,000 股 A 類普通股，總價約為 7 億美元。

Craig will touch on this in more detail in his comments.

克雷格將在他的評論中更詳細地談到這一點。

In closing, our thoughts are with our associates, clients and communities that have been affected and continue to be affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

最後，我們與受到並繼續受到颶風海倫和米爾頓影響的同事、客戶和社區同在。

Thanks to our dedicated associates, we quickly reopened operations to help our clients and communities in their rebuilding efforts during this difficult time.

感謝我們敬業的員工，我們迅速重新開放業務，幫助我們的客戶和社區在這個困難時期進行重建工作。

We're committed to continuing this support moving forward.

我們致力於繼續提供這種支援。

I'll turn it over to Craig to review the financial results in more detail.

我會將其轉交給克雷格，以更詳細地審查財務結果。

Craig?

克雷格？

Thank you, Frank.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。

We appreciate everyone joining us today.

我們感謝今天加入我們的所有人。

I will anchor my comments on the third quarter key takeaways outlined on page 9.

我將把我的評論集中在第 9 頁概述的第三季關鍵要點上。

Pages 10 through 26 provide more details underlying our results.

第 10 頁到第 26 頁提供了我們結果的更多詳細資訊。

As Frank mentioned, we initiated our share repurchase program at the beginning of August.

正如弗蘭克所提到的，我們在八月初啟動了股票回購計畫。

As of close of business on October 22, we repurchased 3.61% of Class A common shares and 3.36% of total common shares outstanding for a total purchase price of $969.4 million.

截至 10 月 22 日收盤，我們回購了 3.61% 的 A 類普通股和已發行普通股總數的 3.36%，總購買價為 9.694 億美元。

This represents approximately 28% of our Board-approved $3.5 billion repurchase.

這約佔董事會批准的 35 億美元回購計畫的 28%。

Turning to third quarter financial results.

轉向第三季財務業績。

ROE and ROA adjusted for notable items were 11.94% and 1.22%, respectively.

經重要項目調整後的淨資產收益率和淨資產收益率分別為 11.94% 和 1.22%。

Our adjusted PPNR, ROA and efficiency ratio were 1.88% and 54%, respectively.

我們調整後的 PPNR、ROA 和效率比分別為 1.88% 和 54%。

Headline NIM was 3.53% and ex-accretion NIM was 3.33%.

整體淨利差為 3.53%，扣除淨利差為 3.33%。

With respect to these earnings metrics, we remained at or amongst the top of our large financial institution peer group.

就這些獲利指標而言，我們在大型金融機構同業中仍處於領先地位。

Aligned with our guidance, headline net interest income was down slightly from the second quarter as lower accretion income and higher deposit costs offset increases in interest income on loans ex-accretion and investments.

與我們的指引一致，整體淨利息收入較第二季略有下降，因為增值收入下降和存款成本上升抵消了貸款除增值和投資利息收入的成長。

While modest, net interest income ex-accretion increased over the linked quarter given support from higher average loan balances.

儘管增幅不大，但由於平均貸款餘額增加的支持，上一季淨利息收入有所增加。

While the pace moderated, deposit costs were up predominantly due to growth in money market and savings accounts.

雖然成長放緩，但存款成本上升主要是因為貨幣市場和儲蓄帳戶的成長。

We believe the cost of deposits reached its peak in the third quarter, and we'll see a downward trend moving forward as down rate betas accelerate from the magnitude of rate cuts in September.

我們認為存款成本在第三季達到頂峰，隨著 9 月降息幅度的加大，利率貝塔值加速下降，我們將看到下行趨勢。

Headline NIM contracted sequentially by 11 basis points and excluding accretion by 3 basis points.

總體淨利差連續收縮 11 個基點，不包括增加 3 個基點。

While NIM was down, the impacts from deposit repricing and interest bearing deposit growth have stabilized, and we continue to benefit from a higher average loan balance.

雖然淨利差下降，但存款重新定價和計息存款成長的影響已經穩定，我們繼續受益於平均貸款餘額的上升。

Adjusted non-interest income was down modestly, sequentially, but aligned with our guidance.

調整後的非利息收入連續小幅下降，但與我們的指導一致。

The decline was primarily driven by changes in the fair value of customer derivative positions brought on by lower interest rates, partially offset by increased capital market fees due to higher loan syndication volume and an increase in rental income on rail operating lease equipment.

下降的主要原因是利率下降導致客戶衍生性商品部位公允價值變化，但部分被銀團貸款量增加和鐵路經營租賃設備租金收入增加導致的資本市場費用增加所抵銷。

The profitability of our Rail segment remains on track as we added to the number of railcars in the fleet this quarter, and we continue to experience solid repricing trends and utilization rates.

隨著本季我們增加了車隊中的鐵路車數量，我們鐵路部門的獲利能力仍然保持在正軌，並且我們繼續經歷穩定的重新定價趨勢和利用率。

Adjusted non-interest expense came in slightly above our guidance range, increasing sequentially by approximately 5% with the increase concentrated in personnel costs and professional fees.

調整後的非利息支出略高於我們的指導範圍，季增約 5%，成長主要集中在人員成本和專業費用。

As you will recall, we identified the continued build-out of our risk organization and risk management framework to LFI standards as a strategic priority in 2024.

您可能還記得，我們​​將繼續按照 LFI 標準建立我們的風險組織和風險管理框架作為 2024 年的策略重點。

During the third quarter, this constituted the most significant component of the increase impacting both personnel costs and professional fees.

在第三季度，這是影響人員成本和專業費用的成長的最重要組成部分。

In addition to the risk management spend, incentive accruals increased related to 2024 performance and there was an additional working day in the quarter.

除了風險管理支出之外，與 2024 年業績相關的應計獎勵也有所增加，並且該季度增加了一個工作日。

Finally, but to a lesser extent, lower loan originations and thus lower deferred salaries and higher insurance expense contributed to the increase in expense during the quarter.

最後，但在較小程度上，貸款發放量的減少以及遞延工資的減少和保險費用的增加導致了本季費用的增加。

While these expenses were expected, they pulled through at a slightly elevated level in the third quarter given accelerated hiring and increased project spend.

雖然這些費用是預期的，但由於招募加速和專案支出增加，第三季的支出略有上升。

We expect continued spend into 2025, as we further mature the organization and build a platform for sustainable growth in the future.

隨著我們的組織進一步成熟並為未來的永續成長建立平台，我們預計到 2025 年將繼續支出。

Despite investments in our business and infrastructure, we have continued to execute on cost savings initiatives, and we are pleased to report that we achieved the low end of our cost savings goal from the SVB acquisition.

儘管對我們的業務和基礎設施進行了投資，我們仍然繼續執行成本節約計劃，我們很高興地報告說，我們透過收購 SVB 實現了成本節約目標的低端。

Effectively managing expenses is a top priority for us given headwinds to net interest income and necessary spend for regulatory readiness.

鑑於淨利息收入和監管準備所需支出的不利因素，有效管理費用是我們的首要任務。

We will continue to be vigilant on overall expense management as we look to 2025.

展望 2025 年，我們將繼續對整體費用管理保持警惕。

Moving to credit.

轉向信貸。

Our net charge off ratio during the quarter was 42 basis points, up slightly from the sequential quarter, but aligned with our guidance range.

本季我們的淨沖銷率為 42 個基點，比上一季略有上升，但與我們的指導範圍一致。

As Frank mentioned in his comments, net charge-offs were in the same portfolios discussed previously, and we noted no emerging problems outside of those pressure points.

正如弗蘭克在評論中提到的，淨沖銷與之前討論的投資組合相同，我們注意到除了這些壓力點之外沒有出現任何問題。

Most of the increase in net charge-offs during the quarter were concentrated in the general office portfolio within the commercial bank.

本季淨沖銷的成長大部分集中在商業銀行的綜合辦公業務組合。

We believe losses will remain elevated here due to high vacancy rates, continued pressure from interest rates and limited liquidity in the market for refinancing maturing loans.

我們認為，由於高空置率、持續的利率壓力以及到期貸款再融資市場的流動性有限，損失將繼續上升。

At quarter end, total loans in this portfolio were $825 million or approximately 0.6% of the total loan portfolio.

截至季末，該投資組合中的貸款總額為 8.25 億美元，約佔貸款組合總額的 0.6%。

We saw a modest increase in net charge-offs in the small ticket leasing portfolio and experienced modest improvement in the investor dependent portfolio.

我們看到小票租賃投資組合的淨沖銷略有增加，而依賴投資者的投資組合也略有改善。

Continued improvement here will be facilitated by a higher fundraising environment driven by both M&A and IPOs.

併購和首次公開募股推動的更高的融資環境將促進這方面的持續改善。

At this time, an improved appetite for IPOs remains elusive, and we expect continued stress in this portfolio in the near term but remain optimistic that a declining rate environment will help generate more activity in this space.

目前，首次公開募股的興趣仍難以改善，我們預計短期內該投資組合將繼續面臨壓力，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，利率下降的環境將有助於在該領域產生更多活動。

Non-accrual loans increased sequentially driven by one loan that migrated to non-accrual status in the SVB commercial portfolio and appears to be an idiosyncratic event.

非應計貸款連續增加是由一筆貸款在 SVB 商業投資組合中轉為非應計貸款推動的，這似乎是一個特殊事件。

Looking at the allowance, the ratio declined by 1 basis point to 1.21% with the most significant factor related to improvement in credit quality of our commercial loan portfolio, partially offset by changes in the macroeconomic forecast, higher specific reserves on individually evaluated loans and a $20 million reserve recorded related to Hurricane Helene.

從準備金來看，該比率下降了 1 個基點至 1.21%，最重要的因素與我們商業貸款組合的信用品質改善有關，但部分被宏觀經濟預測的變化、單獨評估貸款的特定準備金增加以及記錄了與颶風海倫相關的2000 萬美元儲備金。

We feel good about our overall reserve coverage as well as coverage on the portfolios experiencing stress.

我們對整體準備金覆蓋率以及面臨壓力的投資組合的覆蓋率感到滿意。

Moving to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

Loans decreased by $646 million sequentially, a decline of 0.5%.

貸款季減 6.46 億美元，下降 0.5%。

The decline was driven by a $2.1 billion reduction in SVB commercial loans, a majority of which was concentrated in period end loans with Global Fund Banking driven by lower loan draws and higher prepayments.

下降的原因是 SVB 商業貸款減少了 21 億美元，其中大部分集中在全球基金銀行業務的期末貸款，這是由於貸款提款減少和預付款增加所致。

Encouragingly, the GFB pipeline remains strong at approximately $8 billion and average loan balances were up during the quarter.

令人鼓舞的是，GFB 管道仍然強勁，約為 80 億美元，本季平均貸款餘額有所上升。

These decreases were partially offset by growth in the General and Commercial Bank segments of $897 million and $573 million respectively.

這些下降被普通銀行和商業銀行部門分別增加 8.97 億美元和 5.73 億美元所部分抵銷。

General Bank growth was primarily attributable to business and commercial loans, while growth in the commercial bank continued in our industry verticals, including tech, media and telecom and health care.

一般銀行的成長主要歸因於企業和商業貸款，而商業銀行的成長在我們的垂直產業中持續成長，包括科技、媒體和電信以及醫療保健。

Turning to the right-hand side of the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表的右邊。

Deposits grew sequentially by 0.3% or $495 million due to growth in the branch network.

由於分行網路的成長，存款環比增長 0.3%，即 4.95 億美元。

We were pleased with this growth given that this has been a key focus area for us in 2024.

鑑於這是我們 2024 年的重點領域，我們對此成長感到滿意。

In SVB Commercial, we saw modest deposit growth of $54 million.

在 SVB Commercial 中，我們看到存款小幅增加 5,400 萬美元。

The stability of this franchise continues to demonstrate the competitive advantage we maintain in the innovation economy given our unique products, innovative and adaptive approach and the deep institutional knowledge of our associates.

鑑於我們獨特的產品、創新和適應性方法以及員工深厚的機構知識，該特許經營權的穩定性繼續證明了我們在創新經濟中保持的競爭優勢。

These increases were partially offset by a $165 million decrease in direct bank deposits as we continue to allow expiring time deposits to run off and only partially replace them with savings products.

這些增長被直接銀行存款減少 1.65 億美元部分抵消，因為我們繼續允許到期定期存款流失，並且僅用儲蓄產品部分取代它們。

Given recent Fed rate cuts, we are seeing some slowing in competition and pricing pressures across our channels.

鑑於聯準會最近降息，我們發現我們各通路的競爭和定價壓力有所放緩。

This coupled with continued general bank core deposit growth, reduced the need for additional high-cost direct bank deposits in the third quarter.

再加上銀行核心存款的持續成長，減少了第三季額外高成本直接銀行存款的需求。

We will continue to utilize this channel as needed to bolster liquidity.

我們將根據需要繼續利用這一管道來增加流動性。

But given our excess liquidity position, we slowed growth in this channel during the quarter.

但鑑於我們的流動性過剩，我們在本季放慢了該通路的成長。

Moving to capital.

遷往首都。

Our CET1 capital ratio decreased by 9 basis points sequentially ending the quarter at 13.24%.

本季結束時，我們的 CET1 資本比率較上季下降了 9 個基點，為 13.24%。

This was driven by a continued decline in the benefit provided by the shared loss agreement, which added approximately 73 basis points to the ratio this quarter, down 12 basis points from the second quarter.

這是由於分擔損失協議提供的收益持續下降，本季該比率增加了約 73 個基點，較第二季下降了 12 個基點。

CET1, excluding the benefits of the shared loss agreement, increased 3 basis points from the linked quarter as earnings growth outpaced risk weighted asset growth as well as the impact of share repurchases.

由於獲利成長超過風險加權資產成長以及股票回購的影響，不包括分擔損失協議的收益的 CET1 較上一季成長 3 個基點。

We intend to manage CET1 ex loss share towards the 10.5% to 11% range by the end of 2025, which is the level it was following the acquisition of SVB.

我們計劃在 2025 年底前將 CET1 的除虧損份額控制在 10.5% 至 11% 的範圍內，這是收購 SVB 後的水平。

We intend to accomplish this through regular share repurchases in '24 and '25, as we continue to assess capital needs considering loan growth, earnings trajectories and the economic and regulatory environments.

我們打算透過 24 年和 25 年的定期股票回購來實現這一目標，同時我們將繼續考慮貸款成長、獲利軌跡以及經濟和監管環境來評估資本需求。

I will close on page 28 with our 2024 fourth quarter and full year outlook.

我將在第 28 頁結束我們對 2024 年第四季和全年的展望。

On loans, we moved our expectations lower given the starting point at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

在貸款方面，鑑於第四季初的起點，我們下調了預期。

While we remain guarded on growth, we do continue to see solid momentum in our pipelines.

儘管我們對成長保持警惕，但我們確實繼續看到我們的管道保持強勁勢頭。

We anticipate flat to low single digit annualized percentage growth in the fourth quarter, driven by the business and commercial loan portfolios in the General Bank and growth in the SVB Commercial segment.

我們預計，在總銀行業務和商業貸款組合以及 SVB 商業部門成長的推動下，第四季度年化百分比成長率將持平或較低。

We expect SVB Commercial will benefit from growth in the Global Fund Banking business, but do remain cautious on the absolute level of growth given the softness we experienced in the third quarter.

我們預計 SVB Commercial 將受益於全球基金銀行業務的成長，但鑑於我們在第三季經歷的疲軟，我們對絕對成長水準仍保持謹慎。

We do expect a modest increase in investment activity in the fourth quarter as the Fed's monetary easing cycle has potential to kickstart a market recovery, which could drive loans higher in the segment.

我們確實預計第四季度投資活動將小幅成長，因為聯準會的貨幣寬鬆週期有可能啟動市場復甦，推動該領域的貸款走高。

We expect loans to end the year in the $138 billion to $140 billion range, representing mid single digit percentage growth for the full year.

我們預計年底貸款將達到 1,380 億美元至 1,400 億美元，相當於全年中個位數百分比成長。

We anticipate this growth will be concentrated across the same banking segments and for the same reasons previously discussed.

我們預計這種增長將集中在相同的銀行部門，並且出於之前討論的相同原因。

We expect deposits to end the year in the $150 billion to $153 billion range, representing a low to mid single digit percentage growth rate for the full year.

我們預計年底存款將在 1500 億美元至 1530 億美元之間，全年增長率為中低個位數百分比。

There is potential for a modest decline in deposits in the fourth quarter due to lower balances in the SVB Commercial segment driven by cash burn and a few large global fund banking deposits that came in late in the third quarter before being distributed in October.

由於現金消耗和一些大型全球基金銀行存款在第三季末存入並於 10 月分配，導致 SVB 商業部門餘額減少，第四季度存款可能會小幅下降。

Additionally, as previously discussed, we expect a continued decline in the direct bank as we are not replacing time deposit maturities.

此外，如前所述，我們預計直接銀行業務將持續下降，因為我們不會更換定期存款到期日。

We anticipate these reductions to be partially offset by continued growth in the branch network as we benefit from increasing our customer base by building deposits through successful execution of our organic growth and relationship banking strategy.

我們預計這些減少將被分行網路的持續成長所部分抵消，因為我們透過成功執行有機成長和關係銀行策略來累積存款，從而擴大客戶群，從而受益。

Our interest rate forecast for the fourth quarter covers a range of 0 to [325] basis point rate cuts with the effective Fed funds rate declining from 5% currently to as low as 4.25% by the end of the year.

我們對第四季度的利率預測涵蓋 0 至 [325] 個基點的降息範圍，有效聯邦基金利率從目前的 5% 降至年底的 4.25%。

Turning to fourth quarter headline net interest income.

轉向第四季的總淨利息收入。

We expect a low to mid single digit percentage points decline as lower accretion and slightly lower loan and investment yields are only partially offset by declining deposit costs.

我們預計，由於存款成本下降僅部分抵消了成長的下降以及貸款和投資收益率的小幅下降，因此成長率將出現低至中個位數的百分點下降。

Our guidance does include the planned impact of share repurchase activity for the remainder of 2024.

我們的指導確實包括 2024 年剩餘時間內股票回購活動的計畫影響。

For the full year, we expect headline net interest income to be in the range of $7.1 billion to $7.2 billion, down slightly from our previous guide of $7.2 billion to $7.3 billion reflecting the full impact of the 50 basis points rate cut in September as well as potential additional cuts in the updated forecast occurring in the fourth quarter.

就全年而言，我們預計整體淨利息收入將在71 億美元至72 億美元之間，略低於我們之前72 億美元至73 億美元的指引，這也反映了9 月份降息50 個基點的全面影響由於第四季度可能會進一步削減更新的預測。

In either case, as expected, we project that loan accretion will be down over $200 million for the year as loan discounts on the shorter portfolios continue to be recognized.

無論哪種情況，正如預期的那樣，我們預計今年的貸款成長將減少超過 2 億美元，因為較短投資組合的貸款折扣繼續得到認可。

While we realize that our asset sensitivity causes headwinds to net interest income and net interest margin in down cycles, it has allowed us to pull forward earnings in the higher for longer rate environment.

雖然我們意識到我們的資產敏感性會對下行週期中的淨利息收入和淨利差造成不利影響，但它使我們能夠在較高的長期利率環境下實現獲利成長。

In general, we believe that being asset sensitive provides greater optionality in multiple interest rate environments and allows for greater flexibility on our balance sheet.

總的來說，我們認為，對資產敏感可以在多種利率環境下提供更大的選擇權，並為我們的資產負債表提供更大的靈活性。

We will continue to employ strategies to appropriately navigate market fluctuations in line with our long-term focus on tangible book value growth.

我們將繼續採取策略，適當應對市場波動，以符合我們對有形帳面價值成長的長期關注。

Moving to credit losses.

轉向信用損失。

While we remain within our risk appetite, we do anticipate fourth quarter net charge-offs near or slightly above the level we experienced in the third quarter, driven by the continued stress in the same portfolio as we have been discussing this year.

雖然我們仍保持在風險偏好範圍內，但我們確實預計第四季度的淨沖銷將接近或略高於第三季度的水平，這是由於我們今年一直在討論的同一投資組合面臨的持續壓力所致。

Commercial real estate rate cuts could ease some of the pressure on borrowers in the general office sector and over the long term help to reduce issues in this portfolio.

商業房地產降息可以緩解普通辦公部門借款人的部分壓力，從長遠來看有助於減少該投資組合的問題。

However, we do believe losses will remain elevated for the remainder of '24 and into '25.

然而，我們確實相信，在 24 年剩餘時間和 25 年期間，損失仍將保持在較高水準。

We also anticipate continued stress in the investor dependent portfolio in the fourth quarter and into 2025.

我們也預計從第四季到 2025 年，依賴投資者的投資組合將繼續面臨壓力。

In addition to these factors, we are watching a couple of larger credits that could manifest into losses in the fourth quarter, which are considered in the 40 to 50 basis points range for the quarter.

除了這些因素之外，我們還關註一些可能在第四季度體現為損失的較大信貸，而該季度的損失被認為在 40 至 50 個基點範圍內。

We are increasing the lower end of our full year range slightly from 35 to 37 basis points with the high end of the range remaining at 40 basis points.

我們將全年利率區間的下限從 35 個基點小幅上調至 37 個基點，上限維持在 40 個基點。

Moving to adjusted non-interest income.

轉向調整後的非利息收入。

We expect the fourth quarter to be in line to down low single digit percentage points from the third quarter.

我們預計第四季將比第三季下降低個位數百分點。

We expect full year adjusted non-interest income to be in the range of $1.89 billion to $1.91 billion, which is slightly higher than our previous guidance.

我們預計全年調整後非利息收入將在 18.9 億美元至 19.1 億美元之間，略高於我們先前的指引。

This is driven by our rail outlook as we expect a continuation of healthy fundamentals in the near term from a supply driven recovery, which is generating strong demand for existing railcars resulting in a stronger for longer scenario.

這是由我們的鐵路前景推動的，因為我們預計供應驅動的復甦將在短期內延續健康的基本面，這將產生對現有鐵路車的強勁需求，從而導致長期前景更加強勁。

We are also expecting higher wealth management income due to continued organic growth and client acquisition.

由於持續的有機成長和客戶獲取，我們也預期財富管理收入會更高。

Moving to adjusted non-interest expense.

轉向調整後的非利息支出。

We expect the fourth quarter to be flat compared to the third quarter.

我們預計第四季將與第三季持平。

As discussed, we continue to invest in our risk and technology capabilities and have made strategic hires on these teams resulting in a higher run rate for salaries and benefits expense.

正如所討論的，我們繼續投資於我們的風險和技術能力，並對這些團隊進行了策略性招聘，從而提高了工資和福利費用的運作率。

We are additionally seeing higher project related expenses for strategic technology projects and increased marketing expenses in the direct bank as we try to hold on to deposits there.

此外，由於我們試圖保留直接銀行的存款，我們也發現策略科技專案的專案相關費用增加，以及直接銀行的行銷費用增加。

We will seek to partially offset these expenses through additional acquisition synergies, which I spoke to earlier.

我們將尋求透過額外的收購協同效應來部分抵消這些費用，我之前曾談到過這一點。

Our adjusted efficiency ratio is expected to remain in the mid to upper 50% range in 2024, as the impact of the Fed rate cut cycle puts downward pressure on net interest margin and we continue to make investments into areas that will help us scale to Category 3 status when we cross that threshold.

預計到 2024 年，我們的調整後效率將保持在 50% 的中上位置，因為聯準會降息週期的影響給淨利差帶來下行壓力，而我們繼續在有助於我們擴大規模的領域進行投資當我們跨過這個閾值時，我們會進入3 狀態。

Looking at the full year, we anticipate adjusted noninterest expense to be in the range of $4.76 billion to $4.79 billion, representing mid single digit percentage growth for the three comparable quarters we merged with SVB in 2023.

縱觀全年，我們預計調整後的非利息支出將在 47.6 億美元至 47.9 億美元之間，這相當於我們 2023 年與 SVB 合併的三個可比季度的中個位數百分比增長。

For both the fourth quarter and full year 2024, we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 27% to 28%, which is exclusive of any discrete items.

對於 2024 年第四季和全年，我們預計稅率將在 27% 至 28% 範圍內，這不包括任何離散項目。

In summary, we are pleased with our performance this quarter and encouraged by the performance of our business segments in the current economic cycle.

總而言之，我們對本季的業績感到滿意，並對我們業務部門在當前經濟週期中的表現感到鼓舞。

We will continue to focus on growing in a prudent manner, appropriately allocating capital and driving long-term growth for our shareholders.

我們將持續注重穩健發展，合理配置資本，推動股東長期成長。

I will now turn it over to the operator for instructions for the question and answer portion of the call.

我現在將其轉交給接線員，以獲取有關通話問答部分的說明。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

Great Morning, Craig or Frank, the SVB decline in the quarter.

早安，克雷格或弗蘭克，矽谷銀行本季下跌。

Obviously, that's a very tough quarter-to-quarter balance to forecast.

顯然，這是一個非常難以預測的季度間平衡。

I'm interested in your thoughts of the next couple of quarters.

我對您對未來幾季的想法感興趣。

What would it take?

需要什麼？

I think you mentioned lower rates, but just maybe what might be at risk here in terms of near-term loan growth before we start seeing that benefit as rates go down?

我想你提到了較低的利率，但在我們開始看到利率下降的好處之前，短期貸款成長可能面臨哪些風險？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Chris, this is Craig.

克里斯，這是克雷格。

I'll ask Marc or Frank to expand on this.

我會請馬克或弗蘭克進一步闡述這一點。

But we anticipate as the market recovers that loans and deposits will grow in SVB.

但我們預計，隨著市場復甦，SVB 的貸款和存款將會成長。

We do think that lower rates and the expectation for lower rates could be a catalyst for growth.

我們確實認為較低的利率和對較低利率的預期可能是成長的催化劑。

We don't really see anything in the quarter structural at SVB.

我們在本季度並沒有真正看到 SVB 的任何結構性變化。

That decline, it really was more related to payoffs towards the end of the quarter.

這種下降實際上更多地與季度末的收益有關。

Average loan balances were higher than last quarter.

平均貸款餘額高於上季。

So again, nothing really structural there that we're seeing.

再說一遍，我們沒有看到任何真正的結構性內容。

I would like to give Marc an opportunity to address that as well if he's on the line.

如果馬克在線上的話，我也想給他一個機會來解決這個問題。

But that's where we, that's kind of how we see it right now.

但這就是我們現在的看法。

And Marc, are you there?

馬克，你在嗎？

I am here.

我在這兒。

Thank you, Craig.

謝謝你，克雷格。

This is Marc Cadieux.

這是馬克·卡迪厄。

And what you see in that capital call lending portfolio, I mean, taking it back to the second quarter when it was up by a roughly similar amount, on a period-end balance basis, that portfolio can move around, again, as second quarter and third quarter results indicate.

我的意思是，你在資本看漲貸款投資組合中看到的，將其帶回第二季度，當時它的增長幅度大致相似，在期末餘額的基礎上，該投資組合可以再次與第二季度一樣移動和第三季業績顯示。

Craig hit what I think is the most important point, and that is the average loan growth, which was continued to be positive in the quarter.

克雷格談到了我認為最重要的一點，那就是平均貸款成長，該季度繼續保持正成長。

And when it comes to a portfolio like this that can swing around on a period end basis like we've witnessed, I think the average balances are really a better thing to focus on as it gives a better indication of how that portfolio is trending, recognizing that, again, borrowing is a function of investment activity.

當涉及到像我們所見證的這樣的投資組合時，它可以在期末基礎上波動，我認為平均餘額確實是一個更好的關注點，因為它可以更好地表明該投資組合的趨勢，再次認識到借貸是投資活動的函數。

Investment activity continued to be muted in the quarter.

本季投資活動繼續低迷。

And so until we see a significant pickup in investment activity, we will presumably continue to see more muted activity in that portfolio segment.

因此，在我們看到投資活動大幅回升之前，我們可能會繼續看到該投資組合領域的活動更加平淡。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And then I guess, Craig, back to the net interest income guide.

然後我想，克雷格，回到淨利息收入指南。

The range is wide and understandably because of the uncertainty with rates.

由於利率的不確定性，該範圍很寬且可以理解。

Can you maybe just speak to the different ranges?

您能談談不同的範圍嗎？

And then also within the guide, accretion income came down.

然後也在指導範圍內，增加收入下降了。

How do we think about the accretion piece going forward in the next few quarters?

我們如何看待未來幾季的成長趨勢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So accretion, we expect the pickup in NIM or the accretion to NIM to continue to dissipate as those shorter term loans are paid off and we recognize that income.

因此，隨著這些短期貸款得到償還並且我們確認了該收入，我們預計淨利差的回升或淨利差的增加將繼續消散。

For instance, during the third quarter, NIM benefited from accretion by 20 basis points.

例如，第三季度，NIM 受益於 20 個基點的成長。

That was down 8 basis points from the prior quarter, with accretion income dropping from $140 million to $101 million.

較上一季下降 8 個基點，增值收入從 1.4 億美元降至 1.01 億美元。

That would continue to decline as we go forward.

隨著我們的前進，這一數字將繼續下降。

For instance, we think that the fourth quarter will be somewhere around $90 million.

例如，我們認為第四季的營收約為 9,000 萬美元。

We will have about $1.3 billion remaining at the end of this year, which is roughly half of what we started with around $2.6 billion.

到今年年底，我們將剩餘約 13 億美元，大約是我們年初約 26 億美元的一半。

So the accretion number, the contribution from accretion will continue to go down as we move forward.

因此，隨著我們的前進，吸積數量，吸積的貢獻將繼續下降。

If we look at just trajectory of NIM and net interest income, we have, we're looking at this in a range of possible outcomes with the high end of the range, assuming no further rate cuts in the fourth quarter.

如果我們只看淨利差和淨利息收入的軌跡，我們就會看到，假設第四季度不再進一步降息，我們會在一系列可能的結果中考慮這一範圍的高端。

So the 50 basis points in September are baked in, but no further rate cuts in the fourth quarter and for next year, that would be the high end of the NIM and net interest income range.

因此，9 月的 50 個基點已經生效，但第四季和明年不會進一步降息，這將是淨利差和淨利息收入範圍的上限。

And for the low end of the range, three additional 25 basis point rate cuts in the fourth quarter of '24 and four cuts in 2025.

對於該區間的低端，2024 年第四季將再降息 3 次 25 個基點，並在 2025 年降息 4 次。

And I'm going to anchor my comments to net interest income ex-accretion.

我將把我的評論錨定在淨利息收入除增加上。

We just talked about the accretion impact.

我們剛剛談到了吸積影響。

If I look at third quarter actual compared to expected fourth quarter '24 exit net interest income in the low scenario, we would expect mid to high single digits percentage decline and in the higher forecast low to mid-single digits decline.

如果我將第三季的實際情況與24 年第四季的預期相比，在較低的情況下退出淨利息收入，我們預計會出現中高個位數百分比下降，而在較高的預測中，會出現低個位數到中個位數百分比下降。

On the margin, in the high scenario, we would expect margin to drop ex-accretion from the 333 to the low 320s in the high and the low 310s in the low.

在保證金方面，在高位情況下，我們預計保證金將從 333 下降到高位時的 320 低位，低位時的低位 310 位。

If we fast forward that trajectory and look at fourth quarter '25 exit for net interest income, ex-accretion in the high, we would anticipate being up low single-digit percentage points.

如果我們快轉這條軌跡，看看 25 年第四季淨利息收入的退出情況（扣除增量），我們預期會出現較低的個位數百分點。

And in the low, we would anticipate being down low single digits.

在低點，我們預期會出現低個位數的下降。

On NIM, we would expect the, in the high scenario for the margin to move from the mid-320s to the high 310s and then the low from the mid-310s to the high 290s.

就淨利差而言，我們預計，在較高的情況下，利潤率將從 320 年代中期移動到 310 年代的高位，然後從 310 年代中期的低位移動到 290 年代的高位。

I know that's a lot, but that's where we see our exit fourth quarter '24 and fourth quarter '25 net interest income and margin ex-accretion landing given those rate scenarios.

我知道這個數字很大，但鑑於這些利率情景，我們看到 24 年第四季和 25 年第四季的淨利息收入和利潤率除增值下降。

That was great.

那很棒。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

Appreciate all the colour.

欣賞所有的顏色。

Anthony Elliott, JPMorgan.

安東尼·艾利奧特，摩根大通。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

Following up on SVB, you saw deposits stable during the quarter and the, you called out the decline in period end loans.

繼 SVB 之後，您發現本季存款穩定，並指出期末貸款下降。

But Marc or Craig, I'm wondering if you can comment on the pace of client additions in that business and how that's trended in the third quarter?

但是馬克或克雷格，我想知道您是否可以對該業務中客戶增加的速度以及第三季的趨勢發表評論？

Marc, will you take that one please?

馬克，請你拿走那個好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I will start, yes.

我會開始，是的。

So it's Marc Cadieux.

這是馬克·卡迪厄。

And I do not, in the moment, have the new client statistic for the quarter, though we do continue to add new clients.

目前，我沒有本季的新客戶統計數據，儘管我們確實在繼續增加新客戶。

We continue to see clients return to us in the third quarter.

我們繼續看到客戶在第三季回歸我們。

And so continue to feel good directionally, recognizing that our target markets are still experiencing a downturn, and so that remains the headwind there.

因此，我們要繼續保持良好的方向感，並認識到我們的目標市場仍在經歷低迷，因此這仍然是那裡的阻力。

But we are encouraged by new client acquisition continuing to be positive.

但我們對新客戶獲取持續積極的勢頭感到鼓舞。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then for my follow-up on the buyback.

然後是我對回購的後續行動。

So you told about 30% through October, which was an elevated pace compared to the total authorization you have outstanding.

因此，截至 10 月份，您已經完成了大約 30%，這與您未完成的授權總額相比，已經是較高的速度。

Should we continue to expect the pace of the buyback to remain elevated until mid-next year?

我們是否應該繼續預期回購步伐將維持在明年中期之前的高點？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

This is Tom Eklund.

這是湯姆·艾克倫德。

Yes, I think through the end of the year, you can assume a similar pace to what you've seen so far and then sort of slowing down a little bit in next year to get to that $3.5 billion in the third quarter of next year.

是的，我認為到今年年底，您可以假設與迄今為止看到的速度類似，然後在明年稍微放慢一點，以便在明年第三季達到 35 億美元。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Samuel Felker, UBS.

塞繆爾·費爾克，瑞銀集團。

Morning.

早晨。

Craig, could you just put a finer point on the floating rate loan exposures, the (inaudible) I believe.

克雷格，您能否對我認為的（聽不清楚）浮動利率貸款風險提出更具體的觀點。

But can you just say what the exact percentage is and as a split between what's floating and what's actually variable?

但你能說出確切的百分比是多少，以及浮動百分比和實際可變百分比之間的比例嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In the total loan portfolio around 64% is variable, 36% fixed.

在總貸款組合中，大約 64% 是可變的，36% 是固定的。

Okay.

好的。

And of the variable, can you share what's effective floating?

至於變量，您能分享什麼是有效的浮動嗎？

Could you repeat that?

你能再說一次嗎？

You broke up there.

你們在那裡分手了。

Yes.

是的。

Sorry, in the variable of the 64%, what part of that is actually effective floating today?

抱歉，在 64% 的變數中，哪一部分今天實際上有效浮動？

Are you saying type of floating?

你是說浮動類型嗎？

Just effective floating.

只是有效的浮動。

So today, what's effective floating?

那麼今天，什麼是有效的浮動呢？

Well, the majority of the loans are tied to SOFR and the spot maturity rate would be around [690], if that's what you're asking.

好吧，大部分貸款都與 SOFR 掛鉤，現貨到期利率將在 [690] 左右，如果這就是您所要求的。

Okay.

好的。

And then in terms of the terminal deposit beta, you noted the 33% expected next quarter.

然後就終端存款貝塔值而言，您注意到下季度的預期為 33%。

Can you give some color around how high you expect that to go by 4Q '25?

您能否透露一下您預計到 25 年第四季該數字會達到多高？

So our terminal up betas on loans was 53% on deposits was 47%.

因此，我們的貸款終期貝他係數為 53%，存款貝他係數為 47%。

We're anticipating in the fourth quarter down betas to be 23% on deposits, 32% on loans.

我們預計第四季存款貝塔值將下降 23%，貸款貝塔值將下降 32%。

And fast forwarding to next year, we would think the terminal betas in the down would be very similar to terminal betas up on loans and deposits.

快進到明年，我們認為下降的終端貝塔值將與貸款和存款的終端貝塔值上升非常相似。

Tom, does that clear square up with what you're?

湯姆，這與你的身分相符嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean there's obviously a little bit of a lag on the deposit side.

我的意思是存款方面顯然有一點滯後。

So that's why we're expecting it to be a little lower going into the fourth quarter and then catch up during next year.

因此，我們預計第四季度的價格會略低，然後在明年迎頭趕上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Long, Raymond James.

大衛朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Marc, I know you talked a little bit about the loan side of SVB.

馬克，我知道您談到了 SVB 的貸款方面。

And then just looking more at the deposit side, flat balances quarter-to-quarter, had a nice improvement in the second quarter.

然後更專注於存款方面，季度餘額持平，第二季度有了很好的改善。

What changed in the marketplace that drove that to be relatively flat in the third quarter?

市場發生了什麼變化導致第三季相對持平？

So it really starts with a diminished venture investment activity in the quarter, roughly $38 billion.

因此，這實際上是從本季創投活動減少開始的，約為 380 億美元。

And so fewer deposits to capture is how that translates.

因此，需要捕獲的存款就會減少。

Similarly, as I think we've noted in past calls.

同樣，正如我認為我們在過去的電話會議中已經注意到的那樣。

Many of our clients have multiple bank accounts today.

如今，我們的許多客戶擁有多個銀行帳戶。

And so some portion of that opportunity gets captured by others as a function of that.

因此，這個機會的一部分會被其他人抓住。

And then cash burn continues to be a factor, which ticked up a little bit in the third quarter relative to the second.

然後，現金消耗仍然是一個因素，第三季的現金消耗相對第二季略有上升。

And so those are in effect the headwinds from the deposit gathering.

因此，這些實際上是存款聚集所帶來的阻力。

And by virtue of that, what I think the flat deposits are up modestly, I think it was $54 million in the quarter, reflects, I think, that continued progress bringing back existing or bringing back former clients, attracting new ones and continuing to reduce the number of clients that attrite.

因此，我認為本季度的固定存款小幅增長，為5400 萬美元，這反映出，我認為，在吸引新客戶並繼續減少客戶數量方面，我們不斷取得進展，帶回了現有客戶或帶回了以前的客戶。

And so generally speaking, maybe stick the landing on this, I think of the continued stability in deposits, given all of these headwinds as great evidence that we're continuing to execute well and remain positioned for a better environment when investment inevitably picks back up.

因此，總的來說，也許堅持這一點，我認為存款的持續穩定，考慮到所有這些逆風都是有力的證據，表明我們將繼續良好執行，並在投資不可避免地回升時保持更好的環境。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for the colour.

謝謝你的顏色。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

瑞恩·納什，高盛。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Maybe a follow-up on some of the net interest income questions that were asked.

也許是對所提出的一些淨利息收入問題的後續行動。

So when you think about the two scenarios that you outlined, when would you expect net interest income and net interest margin to bottom and begin growing again?

因此，當您考慮您概述的兩種情況時，您預計淨利息收入和淨利差何時會觸底並再次開始成長？

And then I guess related to that, last quarter, you talked about further actions you've taken to reduce asset sensitivity.

然後我想與此相關的是，上個季度，您談到了為降低資產敏感性而採取的進一步行動。

Can you maybe just talk about updated thoughts on other actions that you've taken this quarter to reduce sensitivity?

您能否談談您本季為降低敏感度而採取的其他行動的最新想法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

I will cover the trough question and let Tom cover the asset sensitivity question.

我將討論波谷問題，並讓湯姆討論資產敏感性問題。

In terms of, and obviously, these troughs depend heavily on both timing and magnitude of rate cuts.

顯然，這些低谷在很大程度上取決於降息的時機和幅度。

Timing can be very important on that and also on balance sheet growth.

時機對於這一點以及資產負債表的成長都非常重要。

So just, but all things being equal, if we look at net interest income, ex-accretion, we're looking second half of '25 regardless of the rate scenario.

因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，如果我們考慮淨利息收入、除增值，無論利率情況如何，我們都會看到 25 年下半年的情況。

And net interest margin ex-accretion, we're also looking at second half of '25 regardless of scenario.

淨利差除增加後，無論情況如何，我們也關注 25 年下半年。

And that pushing that out is directly tied into our asset sensitivity.

而推動這一點與我們的資產敏感度直接相關。

So obviously, rate cuts have a negative impact and pressure our net interest income and margin.

顯然，降息會產生負面影響，並對我們的淨利息收入和利潤率造成壓力。

So subject to revision going forward, but we would say second half of '25 is the trough.

因此，未來可能會進行修訂，但我們會說 25 年下半年是低谷。

And I'll let Tom hit the asset sensitivity question.

我會讓湯姆回答資產敏感度問題。

Yes.

是的。

On the asset sensitivity side, as you're aware, we have that 3.5% purchase money note on the liability side, which is fixed rate.

在資產敏感度方面，如您所知，我們在負債方面有 3.5% 的購買貨幣票據，這是固定利率。

It's about 20% of our total funding.

這大約是我們總資金的20%。

So we're, we got a little bit of a kink in our asset sensitivity there right around that point.

因此，我們的資產敏感性在這一點附近出現了一些問題。

So during the third quarter, with rates falling down, we moderated some of our actions to mitigate asset sensitivity to instead sort of set aside liquidity to get ready to repay the purchase money note.

因此，在第三季度，隨著利率下降，我們調整了一些降低資產敏感度的行動，轉而預留流動性以準備償還購買貨幣票據。

As rates have recovered now early in the fourth quarter, we've gone back to invest a little more, look at some swap options there, but it just hasn't been economic to put on receive fixed at the same rate we're paying fixed on the liability side.

由於利率在第四季度初已經恢復，我們又增加了一些投資，看看那裡的一些掉期選項，但以我們支付的相同利率固定接收並不經濟固定在責任方。

Got you.

明白你了。

Maybe come back to the Global Fund Banking, where you talked about the end of period being down, but to focus on the average where it was flat.

也許回到全球基金銀行業務，您談到期末下降，但要專注於持平的平均水平。

I think you flagged lower draw activity, which is intuitive and higher repayments.

我認為您標記了較低的提款活動（這是直觀的）和較高的還款額。

And obviously, capital call has been an area that a lot of banks have been investing in.

顯然，資本催繳一直是許多銀行一直在投資的領域。

Can you maybe just expand on the comments about higher repayments?

您能否擴展一下有關更高還款額的評論？

Are you seeing competition picking up and loans are being refinanced away?

您是否看到競爭加劇並且貸款被再融資？

And I know one quarter doesn't make a trend, but how are you just thinking broader about growth in this portfolio over the medium term?

我知道一個季度並不能形成趨勢，但您如何更廣泛地思考該投資組合在中期的成長？

Marc, can you take that one, please?

馬克，你能拿走那個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

It's Marc again.

又是馬克。

Yes.

是的。

So it's Marc.

所以是馬克。

And so a couple of things maybe to go back to the period end.

有幾件事也許可以追溯到期末。

Again, up by roughly a similar amount on a period end basis in the second quarter before coming down.

同樣，在下降之前，第二季期末的增幅大致相似。

And to just give a little bit of context on this capital call lending, these are tend to be short-term loans.

簡單介紹一下這種資本催繳貸款的背景，這些貸款往往是短期貸款。

In effect, they're revolving lines of credit and they borrow when they make an investment, generally speaking, and repay when the capital called from their limited partner investors show up.

實際上，他們是循環信貸額度，一般來說，他們在進行投資時借款，並在有限合夥投資者要求的資金出現時償還。

And in a higher rate environment that we've been in, on average, borrowers tend to keep those advances out for a shorter duration.

平均而言，在我們所處的較高利率環境中，借款人傾向於在較短的時間內保留這些預付款。

And so the combination of that factor, coupled with, again, the more muted investment activity is, I think, what conspires there to cause those swings quarter-to-quarter on a period end basis.

因此，我認為，該因素的結合，再加上投資活動的減弱，共同導致了期末季度與季度之間的波動。

Again, the important point to note here is the average balance growth, which has continued to trend positive.

同樣，這裡值得注意的重要一點是平均餘額成長，其持續呈正趨勢。

And getting to, I think, the heart of your question, our competitiveness in the marketplace and what we're seeing from others.

我認為，這是您問題的核心，我們在市場上的競爭力以及我們從其他人那裡看到的情況。

You are right, capital call lending, subscription lending continues to be an attractive category.

你是對的，資本通知貸款、認購貸款仍然是一個有吸引力的類別。

We have seen in recent years, new entrants.

近年來，我們看到了新進入者。

And we continue to feel very confident about our position in the market.

我們仍然對我們的市場地位充滿信心。

We believe we have the longest lived fund banking practice anywhere.

我們相信我們擁有世界上歷史最悠久的基金銀行業務。

We've been at an awfully long time and a very long established and experienced team, and that team continues to win new business, notwithstanding the competitive environment.

我們已經成立了很長一段時間，並且擁有一支歷史悠久、經驗豐富的團隊，儘管競爭環境激烈，但團隊仍在繼續贏得新業務。

As I think Craig signaled earlier, we're encouraged by the pipeline we see there.

正如我認為克雷格早些時候表示的那樣，我們對在那裡看到的管道感到鼓舞。

And without going into the future, we remain optimistic when fundraising or I'm sorry, when investment eventually picks back up.

在不展望未來的情況下，我們在籌款時保持樂觀，或者很抱歉，當投資最終回升時。

I hope that was responsive.

我希望這是有回應的。

Yes.

是的。

No, it was.

不，是的。

And if I could squeeze in one last one.

如果我能擠進最後一張就好了。

Just on the SVB deposits, I know you said that there was some paydown early in the quarter and then there's some cash burn.

就 SVB 存款而言，我知道您說過本季初有一些還款，然後有一些現金消耗。

But if you think about alts and advisers have been talking about a ramp in deal activity.

但如果你考慮一下替代者和顧問一直在談論的交易活動的增加。

You talked about lower rates being a catalyst.

您談到較低的利率是催化劑。

Like do you see deposit flows picking up in this market as we exit the year and move into 2025, hopefully, in a more conducive environment?

就像您認為，隨著我們退出今年並進入 2025 年（希望在一個更有利的環境中），這個市場的存款流量會有所回升嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So recognizing we're not providing preliminary guidance on '25 at this point, there continues to be a substantial amount of dry powder capital that's been committed to venture capital general partners that has yet to be invested.

因此，認識到我們目前尚未提供 25 年的初步指導，仍有大量乾粉資本已投入創投普通合夥人尚未投資。

I think the stat for the third quarter is something like $328 billion or something like that.

我認為第三季的統計數據約為 3,280 億美元或類似的數字。

So a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to be invested.

因此大量資金觀望等待投資。

We've just seen the first 50 basis point rate cut with the expectation of potentially more.

我們剛剛看到首次降息 50 個基點，預計還會進一步降息。

And that, we believe, as I think Craig said in his opening remarks, we hope will begin to unstick this market, right, that things will continue to (inaudible) given that we're now 9, 10 quarters into what has been a very significant downturn in the innovation economy space.

我們相信，正如我認為克雷格在開場白中所說的那樣，我們希望能夠開始擺脫這個市場，對吧，考慮到我們現在已經進入了9 個、10 個季度，情況將繼續（聽不清楚） 。

And so while I can't predict the future and nobody knows exactly when that investment activity will pick back up.

因此，雖然我無法預測未來，也沒有人確切知道投資活動何時會恢復。

I think, again, we remain well positioned for that inevitability when it occurs.

我再次認為，當這種不可避免的事情發生時，我們仍處於有利位置。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks for all the colour.

感謝所有的顏色。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克，珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Craig, if you have less balance sheet growth that should have CET1 higher next year.

克雷格，如果你的資產負債表成長較少，那麼明年的 CET1 應該會更高。

I was just curious how that could impact the buyback, just thinking beyond what you've already authorized.

我只是好奇這會對回購產生什麼影響，只是想超出你已經授權的範圍。

Yes.

是的。

We certainly plan to utilize the entire $3.5 billion in approved buyback.

我們當然計劃利用已批准的全部 35 億美元回購。

We will be resubmitting our capital plan in the early next year, first quarter, in the first quarter.

我們將在明年初、第一季、第一季重新提交我們的資本計畫。

And if that's the case, if earnings continue to outstrip risk weighted asset growth, we would contemplate tagging on another repurchase plan in the back half of 2025.

如果是這樣的話，如果收益繼續超過風險加權資產的成長，我們將考慮在 2025 年下半年實施另一項回購計畫。

So you're exactly right.

所以你是完全正確的。

If asset growth, if we do have a smaller balance sheet, certainly would support us continuing with our share repurchase plan.

如果資產成長，如果我們的資產負債表確實較小，肯定會支持我們繼續實施股票回購計畫。

And right now, we certainly contemplate not necessarily a smaller balance sheet, but despite that, having the capacity to do a further plan in the second half of next year.

現在，我們當然不一定會考慮縮小資產負債表，但儘管如此，我們有能力在明年下半年制定進一步的計劃。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And just a follow-up on liquidity.

這只是流動性的後續行動。

Is there any excess liquidity that you're carrying today that could be redeployed as some of the capital rules of the Fed are better understood in a few more quarters?

隨著聯準會的一些資本規則在幾個季度內得到更好的理解，您今天持有的過剩流動性是否可以重新部署？

Yes.

是的。

I think as we look at liquidity, obviously, we're not subject to LCR, but run our internal stress tests and everything like that, just in line with what you see at other large financial institutions.

我認為，當我們考慮流動性時，顯然，我們不受 LCR 的影響，但會進行內部壓力測試以及類似的測試，這與您在其他大型金融機構看到的情況一致。

We got, give or take, $7 billion, $10 billion, depending on how you count it in excess liquidity right now that we're carrying on the balance sheet that we could.

我們得到了，給予或接受，70億美元，100億美元，這取決於你現在如何計算過剩流動性，因為我們正在盡可能地保持資產負債表。

In theory, redeploy whether we use that to pay down debt or invest in other earning assets.

理論上，無論我們用它來償還債務還是投資其他獲利資產，都要重新部署。

But it's, numbers keep shifting because it's obviously highly dependent on deposit mix, unfunded commitments and things like that.

但事實是，數字不斷變化，因為它顯然高度依賴存款組合、無資金承諾等。

But we do have a little bit.

但我們確實有一點。

We continue to manage liquidity conservatively and we'll look to take advantage in the future.

我們將繼續保守地管理流動性，並將在未來尋求利用。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time.

我目前不會提出任何進一步的問題。

So, I'd like to turn the call back over to our host, Deanna Hart for any closing remarks.

因此，我想將電話轉回給我們的主持人迪安娜·哈特 (Deanna Hart)，讓其結束語。

Thank you so much, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call today.

非常感謝大家，也感謝大家今天加入電話會議。

We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company.

我們感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。

And if you have further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team.

如果您還有其他問題或需要更多信息，請隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。

We hope everyone has a great rest of your day.

我們希望每個人都能度過愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Have a wonderful day.

祝你有美好的一天。