First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，並歡迎參加 First Citizens BancShares 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我想介紹一下本次電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁 Deanna Hart 女士。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix, will provide third quarter business and financial updates today. During the call, we will reference our investor presentation, which you can find on our website.

大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我們的董事長兼執行長 Frank Holding；財務長克雷格·尼克斯 (Craig Nix) 今天將提供第三季的業務和財務更新。在電話會議期間，我們將參考我們的投資者簡報，您可以在我們的網站上找到該簡報。

Our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined for you on Page 3.

我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。第 3 頁為您概述了這些風險。

We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in Section 5 of the presentation.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施與最直接可比較的 GAAP 措施的調整可以在簡報的第 5 節中找到。

Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third-parties.

最後，First Citizens 不負責、不編輯或保證第三方提供的收入記錄的準確性。

I will now turn it over to Frank.

我現在將把它交給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Page 5. Despite a volatile external market, we've delivered another solid quarter of financial results marked by strong revenue growth and disciplined expense management. Our focus continues to be on growing our core lines of business, maintaining our safety and stability through strong capital, credit and liquidity, risk management and delivering long-term tangible book value growth to our shareholders.

謝謝你，迪安娜，大家早安。從第 5 頁開始。儘管外部市場波動較大，但我們仍取得了又一個穩健的季度財務業績，其特點是強勁的收入成長和嚴格的費用管理。我們的重點仍然是發展我們的核心業務，透過強大的資本、信貸和流動性、風險管理來維持我們的安全和穩定，並為股東帶來長期有形的帳面價值成長。

This morning we reported earnings per share of $55.92 excluding items noted in the presentation on Page 52. This exceeded our expectations and represented a 6% increase over the sequential quarter.

今天早上，我們公佈的每股收益為 55.92 美元，不包括第 52 頁簡報中提到的項目。這超出了我們的預期，比上一季度增長了 6%。

Return metrics were also strong, improving over the sequential quarter despite an increase in credit reserves and capital levels. These return metrics were supported by a net interest margin that remained over 4% on an adjusted efficiency ratio of 46%. Deposits continue to be a huge focus for us during the quarter with period-end deposits up 14% on an annualized basis or 3% sequentially.

儘管信貸儲備和資本水準有所增加，但回報指標也很強勁，較上一季有所改善。這些回報指標得到了淨利差的支持，淨利差維持在 4% 以上，調整後的效率率為 46%。本季度，存款仍是我們的一大關注焦點，期末存款以年率計算成長 14%，比上一季成長 3%。

In addition to deposit growth, our Commercial and General Bank segments posted solid loan growth. Our liquidity and capital positions remain strong and stable, driven by our focus on core deposit gathering and a conservatively managed investment portfolio.

除了存款成長外，我們的商業和普通銀行部門的貸款也實現了穩健的成長。在我們專注於核心存款收集和保守管理的投資組合的推動下，我們的流動性和資本部位保持強勁和穩定。

We also remain focused on managing credit risk prudently. We did experience an increase in net charge-offs this quarter, with the majority of the charge-offs related to investor-dependent loans in the SVB portfolio. While we continue to monitor this portfolio closely, given some of the macroeconomic headwinds facing the innovation economy, we remain encouraged by the resiliency of our clients in the face of elevated inflation and rising interest rates.

我們也持續致力於審慎管理信用風險。本季我們的淨沖銷確實有所增加，其中大部分沖銷與 SVB 投資組合中依賴投資者的貸款有關。儘管我們繼續密切關注該投資組合，但考慮到創新經濟面臨的一些宏觀經濟阻力，我們的客戶面對通膨上升和利率上升的彈性仍然令我們感到鼓舞。

On Page 6, we continue to make great progress in integrating SVB, and our initial stabilization efforts are complete. As a result of our continued focus on, and outreach to our clients, we continue to see stabilization in loan and deposit balances during the quarter.

在第 6 頁，我們在整合 SVB 方面繼續取得巨大進展，我們初步的穩定工作已經完成。由於我們持續關注客戶並與客戶聯繫，我們繼續看到本季貸款和存款餘額趨於穩定。

We have materially completed our strategic assessment work. Currently, we are leveraging the insights from this work to identify opportunities to grow our market position in the innovation economy.

我們已經實質地完成了戰略評估工作。目前，我們正在利用這項工作的見解來尋找機會，以提高我們在創新經濟中的市場地位。

Finally, we remain focused on regulatory readiness through our Large Bank program and a dedicated team of leaders and associates are ensuring we have a framework to meet heightened regulatory expectations and ensure sound business practices for large financial institutions.

最後，我們仍然透過大型銀行計畫專注於監管準備工作，並由領導者和同事組成的專門團隊正在確保我們擁有一個框架來滿足更高的監管期望並確保大型金融機構的良好業務實踐。

On Page 7, our strategic priorities have not changed and are included here for your reference.

在第 7 頁，我們的策略重點沒有改變，在此列出供您參考。

On Page 8 we provided tangible examples of supporting our clients in the innovation economy. We remain excited by the green shoots we're seeing as new and returning business comes to SVB 6 months post acquisition. For example, during the third quarter, Global Fund Banking originations increased by 18% compared to the sequential quarter and its pipeline has grown over 70%.

在第 8 頁，我們提供了在創新經濟中支持客戶的具體範例。隨著新業務和回歸業務在收購後 6 個月來到 SVB，我們仍然對看到的萌芽感到興奮。例如，第三季度，全球基金銀行業務的發起額較上一季成長了 18%，通路成長了 70% 以上。

We are committed to building on and investing in the SVB business to preserve long-term client relationships and to generate new business with founders, entrepreneurs, innovation leaders, and venture capital and private equity clients.

我們致力於發展和投資 SVB 業務，以維持長期的客戶關係，並與創辦人、企業家、創新領導者以及創投和私募股權客戶開展新業務。

During the quarter, our commitment was exemplified when we launched a nationwide Yes, SVB campaign to increase awareness that SVB is open for business and that we remain dedicated to supporting the innovation economy.

在本季度，我們在全國範圍內發起了「是的，SVB」活動，以提高人們對 SVB 開放業務以及我們仍然致力於支持創新經濟的認識，這體現了我們的承諾。

We are also investing in new capabilities including the rollout -- the continued rollout of SVB Go, an online digital banking platform to support our clients' needs by facilitating easier interactions, simple, secure and intuitive. The platform is designed for how our founders and innovation leaders run their businesses rather than how banks operate.

我們還投資於新功能，包括繼續推出 SVB Go，這是一個線上數位銀行平台，透過促進更簡單、安全和直覺的互動來滿足客戶的需求。該平台是針對我們的創辦人和創新領導者經營業務的方式而不是銀行的運作方式而設計的。

Looking forward, we acknowledge headwinds facing the innovation economy. The muted fundraising and investment pace, coupled with limited exit opportunities continues to put pressure on innovation companies across all sectors and stages of development. This is resulting in some bulky charge-offs, which Craig will speak to in more detail during his comments.

展望未來，我們承認創新經濟面臨的阻力。融資和投資步伐緩慢，加上退出機會有限，持續為各產業和發展階段的創新公司帶來壓力。這導致了一些巨額沖銷，克雷格將在評論中更詳細地談到這一點。

Historically, 12 to 18 months into a down cycle, VC investment reaches a [floor], after which valuations normalize and VC firms come back into the market. While U.S. VC firms' investment levels may continue to fall in the near term, we believe the long-term outlook remains positive, primarily related to tailwinds that remain intact despite the most recent dislocation.

從歷史上看，進入下行週期 12 到 18 個月後，創投就會達到[底部]，之後估值就會正常化，創投公司就會重返市場。儘管美國創投公司的投資水準短期內可能會繼續下降，但我們認為長期前景仍然樂觀，這主要與儘管最近出現混亂但仍保持完好的有利因素有關。

The innovation economy is stronger than in past cycles as it grew at 2.4x the rate of the overall U.S. economy between 2000 and 2021, and the COVID-19 pandemic has only accelerated digital adoption.

創新經濟比過去的周期更加強勁，2000 年至 2021 年間其成長率是美國整體經濟成長率的 2.4 倍，而 COVID-19 大流行只會加速數位化的採用。

Further, the innovation economy was 3.5x larger in 2020 than in 2000. While we do not believe we are likely to see 2021 levels of valuation and investment for some time, if ever, we know that there is substantial dry powder waiting to be invested, which gives us confidence in the long-term prospects of the innovation economy.

此外，2020 年的創新經濟規模是2000 年的3.5 倍。雖然我們認為在一段時間內不太可能看到2021 年的估值和投資水平（如果有的話），但我們知道有大量的乾粉等待投資，這讓我們對創新經濟的長期前景充滿信心。

Now turning to Page 9. We have exciting news in our Wealth division. Since 2013, we've focused on our Wealth Management capabilities and have made significant progress growing organically. As a result, our private banking, brokerage and trust services have become a significant revenue source for us, and we've recently expanded our reach beyond our legacy markets in the Carolinas to California and the Northeast. The SVB acquisition provided complementary expansion in terms of geographic distribution and accelerated entrants into attractive markets we were already targeting.

現在翻到第 9 頁。我們的財富部門有令人興奮的消息。自 2013 年以來，我們專注於我們的財富管理能力，並在有機成長方面取得了重大進展。因此，我們的私人銀行、經紀和信託服務已成為我們的重要收入來源，我們最近將業務範圍從卡羅萊納州的傳統市場擴展到加州和東北部。 SVB 收購提供了地理分佈的補充性擴張，並加速進入我們已經瞄準的有吸引力的市場。

The opportunities extend beyond our footprint, however, we're focused on maintaining the great client relationships fostered by SVB Private and deepening those relationships with our registered branch associates and digital platforms serving institutional, mass affluent and high net worth clients. Moving forward, we believe these complementary capabilities will accelerate the growth of our Wealth franchise.

這些機會超越了我們的足跡，但是，我們專注於維持 SVB Private 培育的良好客戶關係，並深化與我們的註冊分行聯營公司和服務機構、大眾富裕和高淨值客戶的數位平台的關係。展望未來，我們相信這些互補能力將加速我們財富專營權的成長。

We remain focused on executing against our core strategic priorities, which are the building blocks for long-term sustainable value generation and are at the core of everything we do. I'd like to thank all of our associates for their strong commitment to serving our customers, clients and communities. Thanks to you, I'm confident we are well positioned to continue delivering strong results and long-term value to our shareholders and stakeholders.

我們仍然專注於執行我們的核心策略優先事項，這些優先事項是長期永續價值創造的基石，也是我們所做一切的核心。我要感謝我們所有的員工對服務我們的顧客、客戶和社區的堅定承諾。感謝你們，我相信我們有能力繼續為我們的股東和利害關係人提供強勁的業績和長期價值。

In conclusion, I'd like to address the recent tragic and horrible attacks inflicted on the innocent people in Israel. We are saddened by these events and wish for peace in the region and for the future security of everyone, and especially our clients, associates and their families.

最後，我想談談最近對以色列無辜人民造成的悲慘和可怕的攻擊。我們對這些事件感到悲痛，並祝福該地區和平，並祝福每個人，特別是我們的客戶、同事及其家人未來的安全。

I'll now turn it over to Craig to provide an update on our third quarter financial results. Craig?

我現在將其轉交給克雷格，以提供我們第三季財務業績的最新資訊。克雷格？

Okay. Thank you, Frank, and thank all of you for joining us today. I'm going to anchor my comments on our third quarter financial results to the takeaways outlined on Page 11. For your reference, Pages 12 through 32 provide more detail supporting those results.

好的。謝謝弗蘭克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我將把我對第三季財務表現的評論與第 11 頁概述的要點結合起來。作為您的參考，第 12 頁到第 32 頁提供了支持這些結果的更多詳細資訊。

As Frank just said, our return metrics were once again strong in the third quarter. ROE and ROA adjusted for notable items were 16.77% and 1.55%, respectively, both exceeding our expectations. Our return metrics were supported by a 1.5% sequential increase in net interest income and a 5.9% sequential decline in expenses.

正如弗蘭克剛才所說，我們的回報指標在第三季再次強勁。重要項目調整後的ROE和ROA分別為16.77%和1.55%，都超出我們的預期。我們的回報指標得到了淨利息收入環比增長 1.5% 和費用環比下降 5.9% 的支持。

Net interest income performance was the result of increased accretion income as well as the impact of higher rates, increasing our loan and investment yields. The cost of deposits increased by 44 basis points over the prior quarter to 2.12%, representing a cycle-to-date beta of 37%.

淨利息收入表現是增值收入增加以及利率上升影響的結果，增加了我們的貸款和投資收益率。存款成本較上一季上升 44 個基點至 2.12%，週期迄今貝塔值為 37%。

Despite the rise in deposit costs, our quarterly NIM showed continued strength coming in at 4.07%, down 3 basis points from the linked quarter, but up 65 basis points from the same quarter 1 year ago. The modest decline in NIM during the quarter was driven by higher deposit balances as well as a higher rate paid on deposits and lower average loans, partially offset by higher yield on earning assets and the elimination of [FHLB] borrowings.

儘管存款成本上升，我們的季度淨利差仍持續強勁，為 4.07%，比上一季下降 3 個基點，但比一年前同一季度上升 65 個基點。本季淨利差小幅下降的原因是存款餘額增加、存款利率上升和平均貸款下降，但獲利資產收益率上升和 [FHLB] 借款的消除部分抵消了這一影響。

With the sell-off in the longer to intermediate part of the yield curve, we allocated $5 billion of our excess cash in the short duration U.S. Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities during the quarter to mitigate some of our sensitivity to falling rates. Given our excess cash position, we expect that to continue in the fourth quarter. We do not expect these purchases to have a material impact on baseline earnings as the investment rates are in line with interest we earn on cash reserves.

隨著殖利率曲線較長到中間部分的拋售，我們在本季將 50 億美元的過剩現金分配給短期美國國債和機構抵押貸款支持證券，以減輕我們對利率下降的敏感度。鑑於我們過剩的現金頭寸，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度持續下去。我們預計這些購買不會對基準收益產生重大影響，因為投資利率與我們從現金儲備中賺取的利息一致。

Adjusted noninterest income increased modestly by 1% sequentially. Of note during the quarter was our rail business, which turned in another strong quarter with utilization rates above 98% and positive repricing trends. We have a well-diversified fleet with high capacity and efficiency, positioning our portfolio well for any future downturn in the economy.

調整後非利息收入較上季小幅增加 1%。本季值得注意的是我們的鐵路業務，該業務在另一個季度表現強勁，利用率超過 98%，重新定價趨勢積極。我們擁有一支高容量、高效率的多元化機隊，使我們的產品組合能夠很好地應對未來經濟低迷的情況。

We are also focused on growing and expanding our fee-based business in areas such as payments and Wealth Management, as Frank alluded to just a moment ago. We have been working recently to expand SVB's real-time payment network, which will allow our clients to send and receive payments instantly.

正如弗蘭克剛才提到的那樣，我們也專注於發展和擴大支付和財富管理等領域的收費業務。我們最近一直致力於擴展 SVB 的即時支付網絡，這將使我們的客戶能夠即時發送和接收付款。

We are also working to offer instant settlement for merchants using payment facilitators and instant loan funding and disbursements, including early wage access. We are excited about the opportunity to accelerate SVB's capability and billing payment functions and are happy to be in a position to invest in opportunities such as these.

我們也致力於使用支付服務商為商家提供即時結算以及即時貸款融資和支付，包括提前領取工資。我們對有機會加速 SVB 的能力和計費支付功能感到興奮，並很高興能夠投資此類機會。

Adjusted noninterest expense declined by $71 million or by 5.9% sequentially. Over 85% of the reduction related to synergies arising from the SVB acquisition. We also saw declines in our marketing costs, which as you may recall from previous calls have been primarily associated with growing deposits in the Direct Bank. We grew deposits in this channel by $6.4 billion during the quarter, while spending less in advertising with efficiency led by new clients from previous periods continuing to increase balances. Strong expense management and discipline will remain a significant focus for us moving forward.

調整後非利息支出較上季下降 7,100 萬美元，即 5.9%。超過 85% 的減少與收購 SVB 產生的綜效有關。我們還看到行銷成本下降，您可能還記得之前的電話會議，這主要與直接銀行存款的成長有關。本季度，我們在該管道的存款增加了 64 億美元，同時廣告支出減少，前一時期的新客戶繼續增加餘額，從而提高了效率。強而有力的費用管理和紀律仍將是我們前進的重要重點。

Putting all of this together, we achieved an adjusted efficiency ratio of 46%, which was an improvement of approximately 4% over the prior quarter. Our third quarter adjusted PPNR grew by 8.6% over the linked quarter, driven by the diversification and growth of our net revenue streams as well as disciplined expense management.

將所有這些加在一起，我們實現了 46% 的調整後效率，比上一季提高了約 4%。在我們淨收入流的多元化和成長以及嚴格的費用管理的推動下，我們第三季調整後的 PPNR 比上一季成長了 8.6%。

Now moving to the balance sheet. Loans were up by $187 million over the second quarter. The General and Commercial Banking segments grew by approximately $1 billion each, while the SVB segment experienced a decline of just under $2 billion.

現在轉向資產負債表。第二季貸款增加了 1.87 億美元。普通銀行和商業銀行業務分別成長了約 10 億美元，而 SVB 業務則下降了近 20 億美元。

In the General Bank, growth was concentrated in small business and commercial loans and our branch network. We are excited to continue to build long-term customer relationships in the General Bank and are pleased to see our investments in digital, call center and branch technology over the past several years pay off. Further, our product breadth has benefited from the CIT and SVB transactions, providing us with better ability to fulfill products based on the preferences of our clients and customers.

在總銀行，成長集中在小型企業和商業貸款以及我們的分行網路。我們很高興能夠繼續在總銀行建立長期的客戶關係，並很高興看到我們過去幾年在數位、電話中心和分行技術方面的投資得到回報。此外，我們的產品廣度受益於 CIT 和 SVB 交易，使我們能夠更好地根據客戶和消費者的偏好來滿足產品需求。

In the Commercial Bank segment, growth was driven by strong production in our industry verticals, including energy, health care and TMT as well as seasonal increases in factoring as clients build out inventory ahead of the holiday season. While origination volumes remained strong in our industry verticals, they were down from the sequential quarter, but the balance sheet benefited from a decline in prepayments.

在商業銀行部門，成長的推動因素包括能源、醫療保健和TMT等垂直行業的強勁生產，以及客戶在假期前建立庫存而導致的保理季節性增長。雖然我們行業垂直領域的發起量仍然強勁，但較上一季有所下降，但資產負債表受益於預付款的下降。

The decline in SVB segment loans was due to 3 major factors: First, approximately half of the decline was the result of the expected wind down of our foreign exposure. Recall that we did not purchase any foreign entities as part of the acquisition. So we have been in the process of exiting these markets; second, lower new loan fundings as the private market investment landscape continues to face headwinds resulting in a difficult exit environment, lower fundraising numbers and fewer deals; and third, expected repayments. While foreign exposure had a significant impact on our third quarter loan balances, we do not anticipate it being a meaningful issue going forward as the majority of the exposure has been unwound at this point.

SVB 部門貸款的下降歸因於 3 個主要因素：首先，大約一半的下降是由於我們的外國風險敞口預期減少所致。回想一下，作為收購的一部分，我們沒有購買任何外國實體。所以我們一直在退出這些市場；其次，由於私募市場投資環境持續面臨不利因素，導致退出環境困難、融資數量減少和交易減少，新貸款資金減少；第三，預期還款。雖然外國風險敞口對我們第三季的貸款餘額產生了重大影響，但我們預計這不會成為一個有意義的問題，因為目前大部分風險敞口已經解除。

We are also encouraged by trends in the technology and health care banking business. This business saw client attrition early on as a result of the March crisis. However, we have been pleased to see both new and returning business come back to this group, resulting from the initiatives we have undertaken since the acquisition.

我們也對科技和醫療保健銀行業務的趨勢感到鼓舞。由於三月的危機，該業務很早就出現了客戶流失。然而，由於我們自收購以來的舉措，我們很高興看到新業務和回歸業務都回到了該集團。

Deposits increased by $5.1 billion over the linked quarter, driven by $6.4 billion of growth in our Direct Bank. The Direct Bank now accounts for $35 billion or 24% of our deposit base. While this channel is higher cost compared to the traditional branch network, 92% of deposits are insured, and the increase in [imbalances] allowed us to reduce our wholesale funding reliance as we were able to pay off more [extensive] FHLB debt in the third quarter. We are pleased that the deposit growth we have experienced allowed us to work our loan-to-deposit ratio down to 91% from almost 99% at the time of the acquisition.

在我們的直接銀行成長 64 億美元的推動下，上一季存款增加了 51 億美元。直接銀行現在占我們存款基礎的 350 億美元，成長 24%。雖然與傳統分行網路相比，這一通路的成本較高，但 92% 的存款都有保險，而且[不平衡]的增加使我們能夠減少對批發資金的依賴，因為我們能夠在第三季度。我們很高興看到存款成長使我們能夠將貸存比率從收購時的近 99% 降至 91%。

Moving to credit quality. Our metrics remain within our risk appetite, but we continue to see deterioration in a few portfolios that we are diligently monitoring to quickly identify and address problems that may arise.

轉向信用品質。我們的指標仍在我們的風險偏好範圍內，但我們繼續看到一些投資組合的惡化，我們正在努力監控這些投資組合，以快速識別和解決可能出現的問題。

The nonaccrual loan ratio decreased by 2 basis points to 0.68%, with total nonaccrual loans decreasing moderately to $899 million. The decrease was driven by net charge-offs outpacing loans migrating into nonaccrual status during the quarter.

非應計貸款比率下降2個基點至0.68%，非應計貸款總額小幅下降至8.99億美元。這一下降是由於本季淨沖銷超過轉為非應計狀態的貸款所致。

The net charge-off ratio increased by 6 basis points during the quarter to 53 basis points. Of the $176 million in net charge-offs during the quarter, $100 million was in the SVB segment, of which $56 million was previously reserved.

本季淨核銷率增加 6 個基點，達到 53 個基點。在本季 1.76 億美元的淨沖銷中，1 億美元屬於 SVB 部門，其中 5,600 萬美元是先前預留的。

With the SVB segment, net charge-offs were concentrated in investor dependent loans with charge-offs totaling $88 million in the third quarter compared to $49 million last quarter. At quarter end, this portfolio totaled $5.7 billion or 10% of SVB segment loans, with $1.7 billion in early-stage companies, the highest risk category, representing 3% of SVB's segment loans.

對於 SVB 部門，淨沖銷主要集中在投資者相關貸款，第三季沖銷總額為 8,800 萬美元，而上季沖銷總額為 4,900 萬美元。截至季末，該投資組合總額為 57 億美元，佔 SVB 部門貸款的 10%，其中 17 億美元屬於風險最高的早期公司，佔 SVB 部門貸款的 3%。

We are carrying an ACL on the investor-dependent portfolio of $250 million of -- [4.42%] of total loans and a purchase accounting discount of $288 million or 5.09%, equating to $538 million or 9.51% loss absorbing capacity on these loans.

我們對投資者依賴的投資組合進行ACL，佔總貸款的2.5 億美元[4.42%]，並提供2.88 億美元或5.09% 的購買會計折扣，相當於這些貸款的5.38 億美元或9.51% 的損失吸收能力。

Within the Commercial Bank segment, net charge-offs were concentrated in the general office and small ticket equipment leasing portfolios. As we have been signaling for a number of quarters, we continue to see strength in our general office portfolio in the Commercial Bank, which totaled $1.1 billion at the end of the third quarter.

在商業銀行部門內，淨沖銷集中在普通辦公室和小額設備租賃組合中。正如我們在多個季度中所發出的信號，我們繼續看到商業銀行綜合辦公室投資組合的強勁勢頭，截至第三季度末，該投資組合總額為 11 億美元。

This portfolio is concentrated in Class B repositioned bridge loans and is where we have seen deterioration in the past dues, criticized assets and charge-offs. We are carrying an ACL on these loans of 7.12% compared to 4% on the overall general office portfolio. We have completed target reviews across our business segments to assess credit and are remaining vigilant on our entire portfolio to identify areas of risk early on.

投資組合主要集中在 B 類重新定位的過橋貸款中，我們發現過去的欠款、不良資產和沖銷情況均惡化。我們對這些貸款的 ACL 為 7.12%，而整體辦公大樓投資組合的 ACL 為 4%。我們已經完成了整個業務部門的目標審查，以評估信用，並對整個投資組合保持警惕，以便及早識別風險領域。

We have historically performed well in challenging economic cycles due to our thoughtful approach to managing risk, measured underwriting practices, customer selection and long-term relationship development. We believe our disciplined credit and risk management approach will continue to support us as we navigate the most recent economic cycle.

由於我們在風險管理、審慎承保實務、客戶選擇和長期關係發展方面採取深思熟慮的方法，我們歷來在充滿挑戰的經濟週期中表現良好。我們相信，在我們應對最近的經濟週期時，我們嚴格的信貸和風險管理方法將繼續為我們提供支援。

Our ACL increased 3 basis points to 1.26% driven by modest deterioration in the macroeconomic forecast and in the large balance Commercial real estate portfolio, which includes general office. These increases were partially offset by lower specific reserves and lower loan balances in the SVB segment. The ACL provided [2x] coverage of annualized quarterly net charge-offs and covered nonaccrual loans 1.9x.

由於宏觀經濟預測和包括一般辦公大樓在內的大型商業房地產投資組合略有惡化，我們的 ACL 上漲了 3 個基點，達到 1.26%。這些增長被 SVB 部門特定準備金減少和貸款餘額減少部分抵消。 ACL 提供 [2 倍] 的年化季度淨沖銷覆蓋率，涵蓋 1.9 倍的非應計貸款。

Moving to capital. Our CET1 ratio decreased by 15 basis points sequentially, ending the quarter at 13.23%, well above our internal target range of 9% to 10%. Strong earnings generation added 50 basis points of capital during the quarter, offset by a decline in the loss share benefit of 63 basis points. We continue to operate at capital levels well above our target ranges on all of our risk-based capital ratios.

遷往首都。我們的 CET1 比率環比下降了 15 個基點，本季末為 13.23%，遠高於我們 9% 至 10% 的內部目標範圍。強勁的獲利能力在本季增加了 50 個基點的資本，但被虧損份額收益下降 63 個基點所抵銷。我們的所有基於風險的資本比率的資本水準繼續遠高於我們的目標範圍。

Before closing with our fourth quarter outlook, I want to comment on pending regulation, specifically around capital and long-term debt. We continue to assess the proposed regulations and the potential impacts on our operations. As I mentioned on the last call, we have established a team whose mandate is to develop plans to ensure operational readiness for these regulations.

在結束我們的第四季度展望之前，我想對懸而未決的監管發表評論，特別是圍繞資本和長期債務的監管。我們將繼續評估擬議的法規及其對我們營運的潛在影響。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們已經成立了一個團隊，其任務是製定計劃以確保這些法規的實施準備就緒。

Although we don't have the precise impacts to our capital ratios at this time, we do know capital requirements will increase. On the long-term debt front, we expect we will need to raise between $8 billion and $11 billion to satisfy these requirements.

儘管我們目前還沒有對資本比率的確切影響，但我們確實知道資本要求將會增加。在長期債務方面，我們預計需要籌集 80 億至 110 億美元才能滿足這些要求。

While we have not traditionally leveraged the debt capital markets to raise funding, we believe our strong and stable capital and liquidity positions will allow us to be flexible as we enter the market in 2024. As we mentioned last quarter, we will continue to pause share repurchases and will consider reinstating them when we submit our capital plan in 2024 and better understand the full impacts of these proposed regulations.

雖然我們傳統上沒有利用債務資本市場來籌集資金，但我們相信，我們強大而穩定的資本和流動性狀況將使我們能夠在2024 年進入市場時保持靈活性。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們將繼續暫停股票發行我們將在 2024 年提交資本計劃並更好地了解這些擬議法規的全部影響時考慮恢復回購。

I will close on Page 34 by discussing our fourth quarter outlook. We anticipate further declines in the Global Fund Banking business from lower levels of venture capital investment, lower capital deployment and the final stages of intentional rundown of select portfolios that were located internationally at the time of the merger. We also anticipate a modest decline in our Tech and Life Sciences business as marketing activity continues to be depressed.

我將在第 34 頁結束時討論我們的第四季展望。我們預計，由於創投投資水準較低、資本配置較低以及合併時位於國際上的精選投資組合已進入有意精簡的最後階段，全球基金銀行業務將進一步下滑。我們也預計，由於行銷活動持續低迷，我們的技術和生命科學業務將出現小幅下滑。

As a result, we expect SVB loan balances to be in the mid-$50 billion range by year-end, down from $57 billion at the end of the third quarter. We expect that SVB declines will largely be offset by mid-single-digit percentage growth in the General Bank segment driven by continued momentum in our branch network as well as growth in our equipment finance line of business.

因此，我們預計到年底 SVB 貸款餘額將在 500 億美元左右，低於第三季末的 570 億美元。我們預計，SVB 的下滑將在很大程度上被我們分行網路持續成長勢頭以及設備融資業務成長所推動的普通銀行業務中個位數百分比成長所抵消。

Despite clients feeling pressure from the elevated rate environment, we still have great momentum in our branch network where we continue to emphasize full banking relationships. We have invested significantly in our equipment finance sales platform, and those efforts are continuing to pay off with increased efficiency and balance sheet growth.

儘管客戶感受到高利率環境帶來的壓力，但我們的分行網路仍然保持強勁勢頭，繼續強調全面的銀行關係。我們對設備融資銷售平台進行了大量投資，這些努力隨著效率的提高和資產負債表的成長而繼續得到回報。

We do expect slight loan declines this quarter in our industry verticals, mainly related to timing and some of the larger loans in our pipeline pull through in the third quarter, and we expect some payoffs to be pushed through in the fourth quarter.

我們確實預計本季垂直行業的貸款將略有下降，這主要與時間安排有關，以及我們管道中的一些較大貸款將在第三季度完成，我們預計一些回報將在第四季度完成。

On deposits, we expect a low to mid-single-digit percentage point decline in the fourth quarter, primarily related to a decline in SVB deposits. We had sizable deposit growth in the second and third quarters, and we're able to retire more costly short-term FHLB borrowings, which coupled with low expected loan growth reduces our need to raise deposit balances at the same rates we did during the last [2] quarters.

在存款方面，我們預計第四季度將出現低至中個位數的百分點下降，這主要與 SVB 存款的下降有關。我們在第二季和第三季實現了可觀的存款成長，並且我們能夠償還成本較高的短期FHLB 借款，再加上較低的預期貸款成長，減少了我們以與去年相同的利率提高存款餘額的需要[2] 宿舍。

While we're encouraged by the stabilization of SVB deposits since April, we anticipate that SVB clients will continue to experience a level of cash burn that exceeds funds sourced from fundraising. It's worth noting that we expect broader market VC funding to remain subdued in the range of $30 billion to $35 billion for the fourth quarter of 2023, which is significantly down from prior years and in line with the muted activity we've seen throughout the first 3 quarters of 2023.

雖然我們對 4 月以來 SVB 存款的穩定性感到鼓舞，但我們預計 SVB 客戶的現金消耗將繼續超過籌款資金。值得注意的是，我們預計2023 年第四季更廣泛的市場創投將保持在300 億至350 億美元的範圍內，這比往年顯著下降，並且與我們在第一季度看到的低迷活動一致。2023 年 第 3 季。

Consequently, we're projecting an approximate $5 billion decline in SVB deposits in the fourth quarter. This estimate could be conservative as the SVB team is laser-focused on obtaining and winning back balances, which could partially offset some natural runoff.

因此，我們預計第四季 SVB 存款將減少約 50 億美元。這項估計可能比較保守，因為 SVB 團隊專注於獲得和贏回平衡，這可能會部分抵消一些自然徑流。

Our interest rate forecast follows the implied forward curve. We forecast one more 25-point rate hike in the fourth quarter with the Fed funds rate ending the year at 5.75%. While we expect the absolute level of margin and net interest income to remain elevated, we do expect them to begin to decline in the coming quarters. We expect this to occur as the accretion from some of the shorter portfolios we acquired, such as Global Fund Banking, fully accreted and we experienced continued pressure on deposit pricing.

我們的利率預測遵循隱含遠期曲線。我們預計第四季將再次升息 25 點，年底聯邦基金利率為 5.75%。雖然我們預計利潤率和淨利息收入的絕對水平將保持在較高水平，但我們確實預計它們將在未來幾季開始下降。我們預計這種情況會發生，因為我們收購的一些較短投資組合（例如全球基金銀行業務）的增值已完全增值，並且我們經歷了存款定價的持續壓力。

The impact of lower accretion and higher deposit costs will be partially offset by higher loan and investment yields. We anticipate our full-cycle beta increasing to approximately 43%, up from our previous estimate of 39%, primarily due to the higher absolute beta at this point in the rate cycle as well as the strong growth we've experienced in the Direct Bank.

較低的增值和較高的存款成本的影響將被較高的貸款和投資收益率部分抵消。我們預計全週期貝塔值將從我們先前估計的 39% 增至約 43%，這主要是由於利率週期此時的絕對貝塔值較高以及我們在直接銀行中經歷的強勁增長。

On adjusted noninterest income, after a strong third quarter, we see a slight retreat to the $430 million to $450 million range, primarily due to the lagged impact of lower SVB off balance sheet funds and less overall innovation economy market activity, leading to lower client investment fees, international fees and other service charges as well as slightly lower net rental [still] income on operating leases due to higher expected maintenance expense in the fourth quarter. We expect continued growth in our Wealth and [Merchancy] income lines of business.

在調整後的非利息收入方面，在第三季表現強勁之後，我們預計將小幅回落至4.3 億美元至4.5 億美元的範圍，這主要是由於SVB 表外基金減少以及整體創新經濟市場活動減少的滯後影響，導致客戶數量減少投資費、國際費和其他服務費以及由於第四季度預期維護費用較高而導致的經營租賃淨租金[仍然]收入略有下降。我們預計我們的財富和[商業]收入業務將持續成長。

On adjusted noninterest expense, we expect to be flat to slightly down compared to the third quarter. Continued acquisition synergies will be partially offset by slightly higher expected consulting and project costs related to strategic priorities as well as our continued investment in Large Bank Program and initiatives.

在調整後的非利息支出方面，我們預計與第三季相比將持平或略有下降。持續的收購協同效應將被與策略優先事項相關的預期諮詢和專案成本略有上升以及我們對大型銀行計劃和舉措的持續投資所部分抵消。

Some of these professional consulting and project costs were lower in the second and third quarters as we assessed and reprioritize areas of focus heading into 2024. We anticipate by year-end that we will be more than halfway to our 25% to 30% synergies goal on SVB's $2.6 billion premerger expense base. We anticipate materially all synergies to be reflected in the run rate by the end of 2024.

隨著我們對進入2024 年的重點領域進行評估和重新確定優先順序，第二季和第三季的部分專業諮詢和專案成本有所下降。我們預計到年底，我們將實現25% 至30% 協同效應目標的一半以上SVB 的合併前費用基礎為 26 億美元。我們預計到 2024 年底，所有協同效應將在運行率中反映出來。

It's worth noting, we do expect a onetime $30 million FDIC assessment to be recognized in the fourth quarter that will be paid out over 8 quarters, which is not included in the adjusted total. The timing of this will be dependent upon when the rule is finalized, meaning it could potentially move into 2024.

值得注意的是，我們確實預計 FDIC 一次性評估的 3,000 萬美元將在第四季度得到確認，該評估將在 8 個季度內支付，但不包括在調整後的總額中。這一時間表將取決於該規則何時最終確定，這意味著它可能會推遲到 2024 年。

We expect annualized net charge-offs in the range of 50 to 60 basis points in the fourth quarter at or above the level we saw in the third quarter. This will bring the full year net charge-off ratio to the mid-40 basis points range. This is an upward revision to our previous estimate and is primarily the result of higher-than-expected charge-offs in our investor-dependent general office CRE in the Commercial Bank and small ticket equipment leasing portfolios.

我們預計第四季年化淨沖銷將在 50 至 60 個基點之間，達到或高於第三季的水平。這將使全年淨沖銷率達到 40 個基點中間的範圍。這是對我們先前預測的上調，主要是由於商業銀行中依賴投資者的綜合辦公室 CRE 和小額設備租賃投資組合的沖銷高於預期。

In closing, we are aware that we are in a time of change and dislocation in the banking industry. We believe we are well positioned to successfully navigate macroeconomic headwinds as well as the changing regulatory landscape, just as we have done so many times before. These changes present us with opportunities, and we are committed to serving our clients through all market conditions, while continuing to deliver long-term value to our shareholders.

最後，我們意識到銀行業正處於一個變革和混亂的時代。我們相信，我們有能力成功應對宏觀經濟逆風以及不斷變化的監管環境，就像我們之前多次所做的那樣。這些變化為我們提供了機遇，我們致力於在所有市場條件下為客戶提供服務，同時繼續為股東創造長期價值。

Our solid capital and liquidity levels not only position us well for changes resulting from the proposed changes in regulatory requirements, but also provide flexibility to be proactive instead of reactive during this uncertain backdrop. We are confident in the long-term outlook for our business. Our business flows are good and our risk management practices are strong. We are focused on maintaining [expense] discipline while continuing to invest in the future. We have an established track record of successful integration efforts, which we look forward to continuing with SVB.

我們堅實的資本和流動性水平不僅使我們能夠很好地應對擬議的監管要求變化所帶來的變化，而且還為我們提供了在這種不確定的背景下採取主動行動而不是被動反應的靈活性。我們對我們業務的長期前景充滿信心。我們的業務流程良好，風險管理實務也很強大。我們專注於維持[費用]紀律，同時繼續投資未來。我們擁有成功整合工作的良好記錄，我們期待與 SVB 繼續合作。

I will now turn it over to the operator for instructions for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

我現在將其轉交給接線員，以獲取有關通話問答部分的說明。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today goes to Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題是向 Piper Sandler 的 Stephen Scouten 提出的。

Craig, you gave some really good color, and Frank, you gave some good anecdotal thoughts around the SVB stabilization. But I'm wondering how you guys think about that into 2024? Do you think we can start to see outright stability there as opposed to just the decline in the runoff? And how do you think about that book of business as we look into next year?

克雷格，你給出了一些非常好的色彩，弗蘭克，你給出了一些關於 SVB 穩定性的很好的軼事想法。但我想知道你們如何看待 2024 年的情況？您認為我們是否可以開始看到那裡的徹底穩定，而不僅僅是徑流的下降？當我們展望明年時，您如何看待這本商業手冊？

Mark, would you weigh in on that, please?

馬克，請你權衡一下好嗎？

Certainly. , Noting that we have not provided any preliminary guidance for 2024 in this call, they're, I think, reflective of the stabilization that you see, the hope, right, that, that turns the corner in '24. At the same time, we need to recognize that we're still going through the valuation reset that Frank alluded to, and we expect that, that could continue into 2024 and continue to be a headwind. And so again, that's probably in part why we are not providing preliminary guidance yet beyond the fourth quarter. And so I'll stop there. I hope that was responsive.

當然。 ，注意到我們在這次電話會議中沒有提供 2024 年的任何初步指導，我認為它們反映了你所看到的穩定，以及在 24 年扭轉局面的希望。同時，我們需要認識到，我們仍在經歷弗蘭克提到的估值重置，我們預計這可能會持續到 2024 年，並繼續成為不利因素。同樣，這可能是我們在第四季度之後尚未提供初步指導的部分原因。我就到此為止。我希望這是有回應的。

And then you guys noted the elevated charge-offs, some of the small-ticket leasing office. I appreciate all the detail around the reserves related to the SVB portfolio. But as you look forward, do you see things worsening at all? Or is it more -- I know you noted macroeconomic trends changing in your CECL modeling. How is that going to potentially drive reserves moving forward as you see it today?

然後你們注意到了一些小額租賃辦公室的沖銷額增加。我很欣賞與 SVB 投資組合相關的儲備的所有細節。但當你展望未來時，你會發現事情會變得更糟嗎？或者更多的是——我知道您在 CECL 模型中註意到了宏觀經濟趨勢的變化。正如您今天所看到的那樣，這將如何潛在地推動儲備向前發展？

Well, I think right now we can consider ourselves to be adequately reserved, and actually, our reserves are very strong on all 3 of those areas when you look at general office, and particularly in the Commercial Bank, you look at the equipment finance and then you look at the innovation loans, the investor-dependent loans. We feel like our reserves are strong there. We're close to 2x covered if you look at those in the aggregate. So we believe our reserves are strong. But we do think for a couple of quarters out the charge-offs will remain a little bit elevated in those areas. Andy, I don't know if you have anything you'd like to add to any of that, or Randy?

嗯，我認為現在我們可以認為自己有足夠的儲備，實際上，當你看看一般辦公室，特別是在商業銀行，你看看設備融資和然後你看看創新貸款，依賴投資者的貸款。我們覺得我們的儲備在那裡很強大。如果您從整體來看，我們的覆蓋率接近 2 倍。所以我們相信我們的儲備是強大的。但我們確實認為，在未來幾季內，這些領域的沖銷額仍將略有上升。安迪，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的，或者蘭迪？

No, I think that's right. Certainly, we'll continue to work through the office portfolio, and that's going to take some time throughout 2024. And we would hope to see some improvement in the equipment finance portfolio. But to Craig's point, we will see -- continue to see elevated charge-offs in those areas into 2022.

不，我認為這是對的。當然，我們將繼續完善辦公室投資組合，這將需要整個 2024 年的一些時間。我們希望看到設備融資投資組合有所改善。但就克雷格的觀點而言，我們將看到——到 2022 年，這些領域的沖銷額將繼續增加。

And that -- it is why you see us raising our net charge-off guidance to [$50 million] to [$60 million] from [$35 million] to [$45 million].

這就是為什麼我們將淨沖銷指引從[3500萬美元]提高到[4500萬美元]到[5000萬美元]到[6000萬美元]。

And the next question goes to Brady Gailey of KBW.

下一個問題是 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。

I wanted to start just with the possible share buyback in 2024. I know you mentioned you need to wait and submit your 2024 capital plan. Just remind us of the timing of that? I think in prior years, that's been around July?

我想從 2024 年可能的股票回購開始。我知道您提到您需要等待並提交 2024 年資本計劃。只是提醒我們時間嗎？我想往年，那是在七月左右吧？

Yes. If we -- we certainly will consider a share repurchase plan as part of our capital plan in 2024. And if that should be included and approved, it would commence in the second half of 2024, consistent with prior plans.

是的。如果我們——我們肯定會考慮將股票回購計劃作為我們 2024 年資本計劃的一部分。如果將其納入並獲得批准，它將在 2024 年下半年開始，與先前的計劃一致。

And then on the NII guidance, it's down around 7% linked quarter. That would suggest there's some NIM decline as well in the fourth quarter. Is that more a function of accretable yield declining, which I think you hinted at a couple of minutes ago? Or is that more a function of the core net interest margin declining? Or is it a little bit of a...?

然後，根據 NII 指導，季度環比下降了 7% 左右。這顯示第四季淨利差也有所下降。我認為這更多是由於可增加產量下降而導致的，我想您幾分鐘前就暗示過這一點？還是這更多是核心淨利差下降的結果？或者說是有點…？

Yes. If you isolate it, ex-accretion in the fourth quarter, we expect NIM to decline by 1 basis point. So we have some stabilization there. With accretion, we're expecting it to decline by 19 basis points. So it is an accretion issue, both on net interest income in dollars and on the margin.

是的。如果單獨考慮，除去第四季度的增量，我們預計淨利差將下降 1 個基點。所以我們在那裡有一些穩定。隨著成長，我們預計它將下降 19 個基點。因此，無論是美元淨利息收入還是邊際收益，這都是一個增值問題。

And then I appreciate the 4Q expense guidance. It feels like you're going to get more cost saves out of [SVB] as we look into 2024. So how do you think about expenses next year? You'll have some cost saves, but you also have some legacy expense creep. Like could you potentially keep expenses flattish next year?

然後我很欣賞第四季的費用指引。當我們展望 2024 年時，感覺您將從 [SVB] 中節省更多成本。那麼您如何看待明年的支出？您將節省一些成本，但也會增加一些遺留費用。例如明年你能保持開支援平嗎？

We -- right now, we're looking -- we're not providing 2024 guidance, but just directionally, I think flattish to low single-digit percentage increase going into '24.

我們 - 現在，我們正在尋找 - 我們不提供 2024 年指導，但只是方向性的，我認為進入 24 年將持平至低個位數百分比增長。

And the next question goes to Steven Alexopoulos of JPMorgan.

下一個問題是向摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯提出的。

So to start on the SVB side and regarding the new campaign, the Yes, SVB. So what's the feedback so far from customers? And could you address that maybe from the VC side, what you're hearing from VC firms and what you're hearing from the start-ups? And is this yet translating into you guys seeing net new operating account growth at the account level, not the balance level?

首先從 SVB 方面開始，關於新的活動，「是的，SVB」。那麼到目前為止客戶的回饋如何？您能否從創投方面談談您從創投公司和新創公司聽到的情況？這是否意味著你們看到的是帳戶層面的新營運帳戶淨成長，而不是餘額層面？

Mark, I'm going to let you handle that one. I know we have picked up some new clients.

馬克，我會讓你來處理這個問題。我知道我們已經找到了一些新客戶。

We have indeed. And we had, in the quarter -- I believe the stat was 600-plus new clients, which means starting with one solution or another. And then I believe we were almost up to 50 new in the last couple of quarters that -- what I would call broad-based new wins, including their operating accounts, operating business.

我們確實有。我相信本季我們有超過 600 個新客戶，這意味著從一個或另一個解決方案開始。然後我相信，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們幾乎有多達 50 個新業務——我稱之為基礎廣泛的新業務，包括他們的營運帳戶、營運業務。

So I think going back to your original point, the ad campaign -- but as much or more so, the very laser-focused calling effort -- reactivation effort calling on new clients, et cetera, we think is ultimately turning around that perception that there's a void and very much reinforcing that SVB is here and open for business. And again, I think part of your question was about feedback. And overall, the feedback, including the ad campaign, has been really very positive on the whole. And so I'll stop there.

因此，我認為回到你最初的觀點，廣告活動——但同樣或更重要的是，非常集中的呼叫工作——重新激活呼叫新客戶的工作等等，我們認為最終會扭轉這種看法：這是一個空白，但SVB 的存在並開始營業這一事實得到了極大的強化。再說一遍，我認為你的問題的一部分是關於回饋的。總的來說，包括廣告活動在內的回饋總體來說非常正面。我就到此為止。

And Mark, I saw the news of Jennifer Gaskins rejoining the company. Congrats on that. She's the superstar of Life Sciences and the health care space. But is that a one-off or are you guys starting to see former SVB employees reengaging to come back to the company?

馬克，我看到珍妮佛加斯金斯重新加入公司的消息。對此表示祝賀。她是生命科學和醫療保健領域的超級明星。但這是一次性的還是你們開始看到前 SVB 員工重新回到公司？

So I will start on, the others may wish to comment. Jennifer was certainly a very high profile rehire, recognizing she was coming back from the SVB Capital entity. And having said that, not the only former SVB there to rejoin with us. The key point there being that, I believe the others that we've had in the new hire mix were SVBers -- legacy SVBers that had departed several years ago as opposed to [some key] events of March.

那我就開始吧，其他人不妨評論一下。詹妮弗無疑是一位非常高調的重新聘用者，因為她認識到自己是從 SVB Capital 實體回來的。話雖如此，並不是唯一一個重新加入我們的前 SVB。關鍵的一點是，我相信我們新聘人員中的其他人是 SVB 員工——幾年前離開的傳統 SVB 員工，而不是 3 月份的[一些關鍵]事件。

And so that too is encouraging to see, some of our former colleagues look at what we have going on here so far in our first 2 quarters up together in [essence], and both were their [feed] to come join us, again, Jennifer being the most high profile of those, which we are so, so excited to see her return.

因此，看到這一點也令人鼓舞，我們的一些前同事在[本質]中共同審視了我們迄今為止在前兩個季度所發生的事情，並且他們都是他們再次加入我們的[飼料]，珍妮佛是其中最引人注目的，我們非常非常高興看到她的回歸。

And Craig, maybe just one follow-up, in your response to the question on expenses, maybe flat to low single-digit increase for 2024. So how should we think about the efficiency ratio wherever you guys end up in the fourth quarter? Do you see that improving fairly materially in 2024?

克雷格，也許只是您在回答有關費用問題時的一個後續行動，可能會在2024 年實現持平或低個位數增長。那麼，無論你們在第四季度結束時，我們應該如何考慮效率比呢？您認為 2024 年情況會出現相當大的改善嗎？

Well, what's going to happen is the accretion is going to offset some of the decrease or stabilization in expense. So what I would say in the fourth quarter, you might see it matriculate up to the high 40s, low 50s. And then next year, I think you'd see it in that same range per quarter. So I would go with -- I would think high 40s, low 50s for the next 5 quarters, and that's really a function of just declining accretion income.

好吧，將會發生的情況是，增加的費用將抵消部分費用的減少或穩定。所以我想說的是，在第四季度，你可能會看到它的排名上升到 40 多歲，低 50 多歲。然後明年，我認為每個季度您都會看到相同的範圍。所以我會認為 - 我認為未來 5 個季度的收入將達到 40 多歲，50 多歲，這實際上是成長收入下降的結果。

Yes, sounds like [this is more] (inaudible) business perspective. Yes, you can see a positive trend (inaudible).

是的，聽起來像是[這更多]（聽不清楚）商業視角。是的，您可以看到正面的趨勢（聽不清楚）。

We'll be -- we're really satisfied with the efficiency ratio in the low 50, high 40s.

我們對低 50、高 40 的效率比非常滿意。

The next question goes to Christopher Marinac of (inaudible).

下一個問題將由克里斯多福·馬裡納克（聽不清楚）提出。

I wanted to ask a question about being able to raise your loan yields related to deposit balances and if they were to sort of go below certain levels? Are you able to do that? And is there still more push on loan yields as we move into the next few quarters?

我想問一個關於能夠提高與存款餘額相關的貸款收益率的問題，以及它們是否會低於特定水平？你能做到嗎？隨著我們進入接下來的幾個季度，貸款收益率是否還會受到更大的推動？

Is your question around the yields or the balances? You're saying first on loan yields. I mean we continue to price loans in excess of where we're pricing deposits and -- are you talking about spreads?

您的問題是關於收益率還是餘額？你首先說的是貸款收益率。我的意思是，我們對貸款的定價繼續高於存款的定價——你在談論利差嗎？

Well, Craig, I'm talking more about, I guess, in your loan contracts with new loans that -- my impression is that there is the ability to kind of push yields higher if compensating balances go below certain levels. It's sort of a enforcement to get more deposits, but also kind of have better pricing if customers start to pull the funds.

好吧，克雷格，我想，我更多地談論的是，在你的新貸款貸款合約中——我的印像是，如果補償餘額低於一定水平，就有能力推高收益率。這是一種獲得更多存款的強制措施，但如果客戶開始提取資金，也可以提供更好的定價。

I think what you're referring to is on the SVB side, and we've not pushed any of the deposits to come back and to push those loan yields higher. I think in general, there's obviously opportunities as market rates continue to increase, the reprice loans higher. Main opportunity for us right now is obviously in the fixed rate loan book where we reprice approximately 20%, 25% a year up on an ongoing basis, and we expect to continue to see that momentum going into next year.

我認為你指的是SVB方面，我們沒有推動任何存款回流並推高貸款收益率。我認為總的來說，隨著市場利率持續上升，貸款重新定價更高，顯然存在機會。目前我們的主要機會顯然是在固定利率貸款方面，我們每年重新定價約 20%，持續上漲 25%，我們預計明年將繼續看到這種勢頭。

And then any other general thoughts about kind of where your adversely rated credits may go next year? Would you think that they change and deteriorate? Or would you see them kind of stable from here?

那麼對於明年你的負面評價學分可能會去向還有其他一般性的想法嗎？你認為它們會改變和惡化嗎？或者從這裡你會看到它們有點穩定嗎？

That's not turned in adversely classified loans how do we expect that to go next year.

這還沒有變成不良分類貸款，我們預計明年會怎麼樣。

So obviously, with the inflation pressures and elevated interest rates, we are seeing migration. We would continue to see that to some degree. And obviously, the areas that we are most challenged, the ones Craig has referenced, which is certainly office and the small ticket equipment finance.

顯然，隨著通貨膨脹壓力和利率上升，我們正在看到移民。我們將在某種程度上繼續看到這一點。顯然，克雷格提到的我們面臨最大挑戰的領域，當然是辦公室和小票設備融資。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question goes to Brian Foran of Autonomous.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題是由 Autonomous 的 Brian Foran 提出的。

I just wanted to clarify on the expenses, recognizing it's not like a formal '24 guide, but just to make sure I'm using the right base. When you say flat to low single-digit as potentially an outcome, is that relative to the full year at $4.12 billion to $4.15 billion, or is that relative to 4Q annualized, which I guess would be about $4.5 billion?

我只是想澄清一下費用，並認識到它不像正式的 24 小時指南，只是為了確保我使用正確的基礎。當你說持平或低個位數作為潛在結果時，這是相對於全年 41.2 億美元至 41.5 億美元，還是相對於第四季年化（我猜約為 45 億美元）？

Brian, the way I'm looking at it, since we were not merged in the first quarter, I'm comparing the 3 quarters of '23 to the 3 quarters of '24, where we were comparable, An- that's what I'm saying is flat to a one single digits up.

布萊恩，我的看法是，由於我們在第一季沒有合併，我將23 年的3 個季度與24 年的3 個季度進行比較，我們在這兩個季度具有可比性，這就是我的想法。我說的是持平到個位數。

So the 9 months where the 2 companies together...?

那麼兩家公司在一起的 9 個月呢......？

We obviously look year-over-year, we're going to be up because we -- the first quarter SVB persists (inaudible) merged. So you're going to see -- you could see a double-digit percentage increase year-over-year given the first quarter.

顯然，我們逐年看，我們將會上漲，因為我們——第一季 SVB 堅持（聽不清楚）合併。所以你會看到——第一季同比增長兩位數。

I initially plugged in relative to the full year and had you guys making like $250 per share and maybe got a little too exciting. So I appreciate the verification.

我一開始就投入了全年的資金，讓你們每股賺了 250 美元，也許有點太興奮了。所以我很感謝驗證。

And our next question goes to Brode Preston of UBS.

我們的下一個問題是向瑞銀集團的布羅德·普雷斯頓提出的。

I wanted to start just maybe on credit. Craig, I just wanted to better understand the charge-offs within the SVB book. I think last quarter, you had one that you had called out, and then you had a couple of others that you kind of cleaned up. These seem to be clustered in the innovation portfolio. I'm sorry, I guess I wanted to ask, was this more of a cleanup quarter as well? And I say that just because the charge-off rate on that portfolio seems to be -- or this quarter, at least was running close to what [SVB] experience back during the GFC. So I just assume that there was some cleanup charge-offs there that you had marks again?

我想開始也許只是賒帳。克雷格，我只是想更了解 SVB 書中的沖銷。我想上個季度，你已經調出了一個，然後你又清理了其他幾個。這些似乎都集中在創新組合中。抱歉，我想我想問一下，這也是一個清理季嗎？我之所以這樣說，只是因為該投資組合的沖銷率似乎——或至少是本季——接近 [SVB] 在全球金融危機期間的經歷。所以我只是假設那裡有一些清理沖銷，你又有標記了？

No. I wouldn't characterize it that way. Again, approximately $56 million of the $100 million was reserved for. So we did anticipate the charge-offs, they were just -- we guided to $35 million to $45 million. Charge-offs came down higher than we expected at 53 basis points for the quarter. But I would not characterize it as this was a cleanup quarter or that last quarter was. I think we expect the charge-offs to remain elevated at least through the first half of next year, consistent with these numbers. And then we'll see what happens in the second half. Again, we're not giving guidance today going forward. But no, I would not characterize it as a cleanup.

不，我不會那樣描述它。同樣，1 億美元中約有 5,600 萬美元被預留。所以我們確實預料到了沖銷，我們指引的沖銷額是 3,500 萬至 4,500 萬美元。本季沖銷額下降 53 個基點，高於我們的預期。但我不會將其描述為這是一個清理季度或上個季度。我認為，我們預計沖銷至少在明年上半年將保持在較高水平，與這些數字一致。然後我們看看下半場會發生什麼。再次強調，我們今天不會提供未來的指導。但不，我不會將其描述為清理。

Do you happen to know what the mark you have against the innovation book is?

你知道你在創新書上的標記是什麼嗎？

We have a [4%] -- we have -- our allowance on the innovation portfolio is 4.42%. We also have a purchase accounting discount of 5.09%. So that's a 9.51% loss absorbing capacity, which gives us 2.1x coverage on that portfolio, which we believe is conservative and strong.

我們有 [4%]——我們有——我們對創新組合的補貼是 4.42%。我們還有 5.09% 的採購折扣。因此，這是 9.51% 的損失吸收能力，這為我們提供了 2.1 倍的投資組合覆蓋率，我們認為這是保守且強大的。

And then I just wanted to ask one last one on the noninterest-bearing deposit trends. It looked like the [SVB] book started to stabilize a bit, but still came down, but the NIBs are quite a bit stronger than, I guess, I would have reasonably thought just relative to the guidance you'd given before. What I wanted to ask was there good NIB growth -- was there NIB growth in the Commercial or the Consumer Banks at all that kind of helped offset some of the cash outflows from the SVB client base?

然後我只想問最後一個關於無利息存款趨勢的問題。看起來 [SVB] 書開始穩定一點，但仍然下降，但 NIB 比我想的要強得多，我想，相對於您之前給出的指導，我會合理地認為。我想問的是，NIB 是否有良好的成長——商業銀行或消費銀行的 NIB 成長是否有助於抵消 SVB 客戶群的部分現金流出？

Well, if you look just from last quarter, noninterest bearing deposits actually declined, but it did not decline at the rate we anticipated. So we did have a decline in those from -- and it was about $1.4 billion. So we had projected a decline that was a little larger. So that's why we would -- we might have come up with a lower mix of noninterest-bearing to total deposits. And we did drop from 30% to 28% in the quarter. And the 32% to 30%, we expect to drop to that 28% in the fourth quarter if our deposit projections hold.

好吧，如果你只看上個季度，無息存款實際上有所下降，但並沒有按照我們預期的速度下降。因此，我們的收入確實有所下降，約為 14 億美元。因此，我們預期下降幅度會更大一些。這就是為什麼我們會——我們可能會提出較低的無利息存款與總存款的比例。本季我們確實從 30% 下降到 28%。如果我們的存款預測成立，我們預計第四季將降至 32% 至 30%，降至 28%。

And do you think that 28%, is it getting close to a bottom?

您認為 28% 是否已接近底部？

I think we have -- there's more running for it to fall given that -- especially if rates are higher for longer, potentially into the mid-20s -- Tom, do you want to (inaudible) that?

我認為，考慮到這一點，尤其是如果利率在較長時間內保持較高水平，可能會持續到 20 多歲，湯姆，你想（聽不清楚）嗎？

I was just going to mention -- I mean, obviously, it's a priority as we go-to-market together these noninterest bearing deposits. I think as you look at the third quarter and in the [Core] Bank, it's actually really strong if you sort of neutralize for the impact you typically see as corporates make cash -- tax payments in September. So overall, I think the underlying trends look pretty good.

我只是想提一下——我的意思是，顯然，當我們將這些無息存款一起推向市場時，這是一個優先事項。我認為，當你觀察第三季和[核心]銀行時，如果你抵消了企業在 9 月支付現金（納稅）時通常看到的影響，那麼它實際上非常強勁。總的來說，我認為潛在趨勢看起來相當不錯。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our host, Deanna Hart for any closing remarks.

我目前不會提出任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給我們的主持人迪安娜哈特 (Deanna Hart)，讓其結束語。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for joining our quarterly earnings call today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have further questions or any additional information, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team through our website. You have a great day.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家今天參加我們的季度財報電話會議。我們感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。如果您還有其他問題或任何其他信息，請隨時透過我們的網站聯繫投資者關係團隊。你有很好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。