Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Camilla and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fortune Brands Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫卡米拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加財富品牌2023年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would like to turn the call over to Leigh Avsec, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs. You may begin the conference call.

我想將電話轉給投資者關係和公司事務副總裁 Leigh Avsec。您可以開始電話會議。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Fortune Brands Innovations Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Hopefully, everyone has had a chance to review our earnings release and supplemental financials. The earnings release and the audio replay of this call can be found in the Investors Section of our website.

大家下午好，歡迎參加財富品牌創新 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。希望每個人都有機會查看我們的收益發布和補充財務數據。收益發布和本次電話會議的音訊重播可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到。

I want to remind everyone that the forward-looking statements we make on the call today, either in our prepared remarks or in the associated question-and-answer session, are based on current expectations and market outlook and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated. These risks are detailed in our various filings with the SEC. The company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. Any references to operating profit or margin, earnings per share or free cash flow in today's call will focus on our results on a before charges and gains basis, unless otherwise specified. Please visit our website for a reconciliation.

我想提醒大家，我們今天在電話會議上所做的前瞻性陳述，無論是在我們準備好的發言中還是在相關的問答環節中，都是基於當前的預期和市場前景，並受到一定的風險和不確定性的影響這可能會導致實際結果與當前預期有重大差異。這些風險在我們向 SEC 提交的各種文件中有詳細說明。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。除非另有說明，今天電話會議中任何提及營業利潤或利潤率、每股收益或自由現金流的內容都將重點關注我們在費用和收益之前的業績。請造訪我們的網站進行調節。

With me today on the call are Nick Fink, our Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Barry, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we have allowed time to address some questions.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Nick Fink；以及我們的財務長戴夫·巴里 (Dave Barry)。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們有時間回答一些問題。

I will now turn the call over to Nick. Nick?

我現在將把電話轉給尼克。缺口？

Thank you, Leigh, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. On this call, I will walk through the highlights of our third quarter performance and offer some thoughts on the macro environment. I will also give an update on our ongoing evolution into a tightly aligned company, focused on brands, innovation and channel.

謝謝你，Leigh，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。在這次電話會議上，我將介紹我們第三季業績的亮點，並提供一些關於宏觀環境的想法。我還將介紹我們不斷發展成為一家緊密團結的公司、專注於品牌、創新和管道的最新情況。

I will then turn the call over to Dave for a discussion of our financial results, our updates to our guidance for the remainder of 2023 as well as some thoughts on our emerging expectations for 2024.

然後，我會將電話轉給戴夫，討論我們的財務業績、對 2023 年剩餘時間指導的更新以及對 2024 年新預期的一些想法。

Turning to our third quarter performance. Our teams executed well and delivered solid top and bottom line results in a macro environment that remains challenging. Our net sales growth outperformed the market for our products and our margin results sequentially improved over the second quarter of 2023.

轉向我們第三季的業績。我們的團隊表現出色，在仍然充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中取得了堅實的營收和利潤成果。我們的淨銷售額成長優於我們產品的市場，我們的利潤率結果比 2023 年第二季連續改善。

We delivered above-market POS results across most of our businesses. Our recently acquired assets are performing better than we expected, and our balance sheet remains very healthy as we continue to generate strong operating and free cash flow.

我們的大多數業務都取得了高於市場水平的 POS 業績。我們最近收購的資產的表現比我們預期的要好，而且我們的資產負債表仍然非常健康，因為我們繼續產生強勁的營運和自由現金流。

Our results this quarter demonstrate the potential and power of our aligned organizational structure and our Fortune Brands Advantage capabilities as well as our unwavering focus on outgrowing the market, preserving margins and generating cash, all while continuing to prioritize key investments, including brand building, thoughtful capacity additions and our digital transformation.

我們本季的業績證明了我們一致的組織結構和財富品牌優勢能力的潛力和力量，以及我們堅定不移地專注於超越市場、保持利潤和創造現金，同時繼續優先考慮關鍵投資，包括品牌建設、深思熟慮的投資產能增加和我們的數位轉型。

The actions we took over the past year to better leverage the strength of our organization and sharpen our focus on our leading brands, meaningful innovation and our advantaged channel relationships, helped drive our results and give me confidence in our strong future. Our Fortune Brands Advantage capabilities will continue to advance our growth and margin journey by reducing cost, informing our strategic pricing strategies, and enabling our high-growth focus areas like connected products.

我們在過去一年中採取的行動是為了更好地利用我們組織的實力，並加強我們對領先品牌、有意義的創新和優勢管道關係的關注，這些行動幫助推動了我們的業績，讓我對我們美好的未來充滿信心。我們的財富品牌優勢能力將透過降低成本、為我們的策略定價策略提供資訊以及支持我們的高成長重點領域（如互聯產品），繼續推動我們的成長和利潤之旅。

Finally, I'm pleased to report that our integration of the Emtek, Schaub, Yale and August assets is going extremely well, and we are even more optimistic about the growth potential that these businesses have, both regarding their stand-alone performance as well as the potential they have to accelerate our transformation into a digital disruptive company and a luxury goods powerhouse.

最後，我很高興地向大家報告，我們對 Emtek、Schaub、Yale 和 August 資產的整合進展非常順利，我們對這些業務的成長潛力更加樂觀，無論是對於它們的獨立業績還是他們具有加速我們向數字顛覆性公司和奢侈品巨頭轉型的潛力。

Net sales were $1.3 billion in the quarter versus $1.2 billion in the prior year, up 5%. Organic net sales were down 4% versus the prior year. Our operating margin was 17.4%, up 40 basis points versus the second quarter of 2023.

本季淨銷售額為 13 億美元，而上年同期淨銷售額為 12 億美元，成長 5%。有機淨銷售額比上年下降 4%。我們的營業利益率為 17.4%，比 2023 年第二季上升 40 個基點。

Our sales and margin performance together with exceptional cash generation resulted in earnings per share of $1.19, a 3% increase over the third quarter of 2022 and gives us confidence in delivering our revised EPS range of $3.80 to $3.90.

我們的銷售和利潤率表現以及出色的現金產生能力使每股收益達到1.19 美元，比2022 年第三季度增長3%，這讓我們有信心實現修正後的每股收益3.80 美元至3.90 美元的範圍。

As we discussed on our last earnings call, we continue to expect some headwinds from lower point-of-sale performance as consumer softness continues and as we further digest the impact from the slowdown in the new construction market through the first half of 2023.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的那樣，隨著消費者持續疲軟以及我們進一步消化 2023 年上半年新建建築市場放緩的影響，我們仍然預計銷售點業績下降將帶來一些阻力。

As has been widely reported, while single-family new construction permits and starts continue to improve off of cycle lows, based on where our products are installed in the production of a home, we do not expect to see the benefit until the end of 2023 and into 2024.

正如廣泛報導的那樣，雖然單戶住宅新建許可證和開工數量繼續擺脫週期低點，但根據我們的產品在房屋生產中的安裝位置，我們預計要到 2023 年底才能看到收益並進入 2024 年。

The repair and remodel market remains soft, although the Pro was relatively stronger than pure DIY categories and our strength with the Pros worked to our advantage.

維修和改造市場仍然疲軟，儘管 Pro 類比純粹的 DIY 類別相對更強，而且我們在 Pros 方面的優勢也為我們帶來了優勢。

We will remain proactive in our response to any short-term external headwinds, while continuing to focus on outgrowing the market, preserving margins, generating cash and prioritizing strategic investments in the key growth priorities that we expect to pay outsized dividends when the market rebounds.

我們將繼續積極應對任何短期外部不利因素，同時繼續專注於超越市場的成長、保持利潤率、創造現金並優先對關鍵成長重點進行策略性投資，我們預計這些成長重點將在市場反彈時支付巨額股息。

Now turning to some thoughts on the current U.S. housing market and the market for our products. The need for housing remains incredibly strong, although it is being constrained by current affordability challenges. In fact, we believe the recent slowdown has only added to the pent-up need for housing. A recent third-party survey indicated that over 1/3 of respondents reported plans to purchase a residential property within the next 12 months. This remains well above the pre-pandemic average and the longer-term average dating back to 2014 of 29%, demonstrating significant supply and demand imbalance in the larger housing space.

現在談談對當前美國房地產市場和我們產品市場的一些想法。儘管受到當前負擔能力挑戰的限制，但對住房的需求仍然非常強勁。事實上，我們認為最近的經濟放緩只會加劇被壓抑的住房需求。最近的一項第三方調查顯示，超過 1/3 的受訪者表示計劃在未來 12 個月內購買住宅物業。這仍遠高於疫情前的平均水準和自 2014 年以來的長期平均值 29%，顯示較大住房空間存在嚴重的供需失衡。

While we cannot predict when the Fed will signal the end of the current cycle of rate increases and quantitative tightening, once it does so, we would expect interest rates to return to more normal levels and the corresponding significant return to growth in the housing market. We continue to believe this fundamental demand, together with our strong and optimally positioned brands will result in medium- to long-term tailwinds for our business in both new construction and repair and remodel.

雖然我們無法預測聯準會何時會發出結束當前升息和量化緊縮週期的信號，但一旦這樣做，我們預計利率將恢復到更正常的水平，房地產市場也會相應顯著恢復成長。我們仍然相信，這項基本需求以及我們強大且定位最佳的品牌將為我們的新建、維修和改造業務帶來中長期的推動力。

Starting with new construction, as has been widely reported, the single-family new construction market continued to improve versus what was initially anticipated at the beginning of 2023, despite higher-than-expected interest rates. Builders, particularly the largest production of homebuilders with whom Fortune Brands enjoys strong relationships, continue to respond to affordability challenges in a dynamic marketplace.

正如廣泛報導的那樣，從新建築開始，儘管利率高於預期，但與 2023 年初的最初預期相比，單戶新建築市場繼續改善。建築商，尤其是與 Fortune Brands 有著密切關係的最大的住宅建築商，繼續應對動態市場中的負擔能力挑戰。

As we have previously stated, while the positive impact on our business will not be immediately apparent due to the timing of when our products are installed in a newly constructed home, this should be a growth tailwind in 2024.

正如我們之前所說，雖然由於我們的產品安裝在新建房屋的時間，對我們業務的積極影響不會立即顯現出來，但這應該是 2024 年的成長動力。

Turning to R&R. R&R market remains dynamic, and there are many variables that are impacting the repair and remodel space, including consumer savings and confidence, employment levels, existing home turnover and home equity levels. We believe that we are well prepared for any external headwinds and remain confident that our products are increasingly well positioned to outperform in any market.

轉向 R&R。 R&R 市場仍充滿活力，有許多變數影響維修和改造空間，包括消費者儲蓄和信心、就業水準、現有房屋週轉率和房屋淨值水準。我們相信，我們已為任何外部不利因素做好了充分準備，並對我們的產品在任何市場中的表現越來越有信心。

First, as mortgage rates rise to the highest levels in many years, homeowners are increasingly viewing their current homes as a longer-term investment and are interested in improving them to match their tastes and needs. We continue to believe our products are relatively more insulated than other R&R items because they're smaller ticket, are less disruptive to install and because they offer immediate aesthetic improvement or meaningful innovation and functionality to a home.

首先，隨著抵押貸款利率升至多年來的最高水平，房主越來越多地將他們當前的房屋視為一項長期投資，並有興趣改善它們以滿足自己的品味和需求。我們仍然相信，我們的產品比其他 R&R 產品相對更具絕緣性，因為它們的成本更小，安裝破壞性更小，而且因為它們為家庭提供了直接的美學改進或有意義的創新和功能。

A recent study indicated that for building products, performance, trusted brand name and aesthetics were by far the most important factors consumers considered during their purchase journey, more so than price. Our brands perfectly align with those criteria.

最近的一項研究表明，對於建築產品而言，性能、值得信賴的品牌名稱和美觀是迄今為止消費者在購買過程中考慮的最重要因素，比價格更重要。我們的品牌完全符合這些標準。

As we continue to evolve our portfolio and focus on supercharge categories, which are categories that we have identified with high growth potential due to the exposure to secular tailwinds separate from the housing market and as we continue to build upon our already strong brands and introduce meaningful innovations, we expect that our products will further distinguish themselves.

隨著我們不斷發展我們的產品組合併專注於增壓類別，這些類別是我們認為具有高成長潛力的類別，因為它們受到與房地產市場無關的長期順風的影響，並且隨著我們繼續鞏固我們已經強大的品牌並推出有意義的產品創新，我們期望我們的產品能進一步脫穎而出。

Consumers continue to have high confidence in their homes as an asset. This has resulted in an environment where the home space (inaudible) and consumers are willing to invest in making their spaces reflect their lifestyles and needs. That said, we are watching macroeconomic trends closely, including consumer confidence levels, consumer spending habits and employment levels, all of which impact repair and remodel trends.

消費者仍然對自己的房屋作為資產充滿信心。這導致了這樣一個環境：家庭空間（聽不清楚）和消費者願意投資，讓他們的空間反映他們的生活方式和需求。也就是說，我們正在密切關注宏觀經濟趨勢，包括消費者信心水平、消費者消費習慣和就業水平，所有這些都會影響修復和改造趨勢。

While we are confident in the mid- to long-term trends for our products, we are anticipating an environment that continues to be challenging and uncertain. As we have in times before, we will respond quickly and decisively in any environment.

雖然我們對產品的中長期趨勢充滿信心，但我們預期環境將繼續充滿挑戰和不確定。正如我們以前所做的那樣，我們將在任何環境下迅速而果斷地做出反應。

As Dave will detail more completely in his section, we are actively scenario-planning for a variety of outcomes in 2024.

正如 Dave 將在他的部分中更詳細地介紹的那樣，我們正在積極規劃 2024 年的各種結果。

Turning now to an update on our organizational transformation. As we approach the 1-year anniversary of the Cabinet spin-off and reorganization of our business, I wanted to reflect on the many transformational activities we undertook over the past year. These activities are driving our future as an exceptional company, focused on growing our core while also accelerating our emerging connected products business.

現在談談我們組織轉型的最新情況。在我們即將迎來內閣分拆和業務重組一周年之際，我想回顧一下我們在過去一年中開展的許多轉型活動。這些活動正在推動我們成為一家卓越公司的未來，專注於發展我們的核心業務，同時加速我們新興的互聯產品業務。

As we noted at the time, the separation represented a chance for Fortune Brands to evolve into an entirely new company when marked by excellence in brands, innovation and channel. And while we are proud of the amount of value creation the separation has generated for our shareholders, we're even more excited about the growth potential that we unlocked.

正如我們當時指出的那樣，此次分拆為 Fortune Brands 提供了一個發展成為一家全新公司的機會，該公司在品牌、創新和通路方面表現卓越。雖然我們對分拆為股東創造的價值感到自豪，但更令我們興奮的是我們釋放的成長潛力。

We've now had nearly a year operating as a more fully aligned company with an organization that is designed around accelerating growth. While it will take more time to realize the full impact of our new structure, we are already seeing tangible results. A more efficient structure has allowed us to remove unnecessary duplication, make strategic decisions faster and with more precision and deploy our Fortune Brands Advantage capabilities across the portfolio.

我們已經作為一家與圍繞加速成長而設計的組織更加協調一致的公司運作了近一年。雖然需要更多時間才能實現新結構的全面影響，但我們已經看到了實際的成果。更有效率的結構使我們能夠消除不必要的重複，更快、更準確地制定策略決策，並在整個產品組合中部署我們的財富品牌優勢能力。

By removing those activities that do not create value, we create space for those that do. This is a multiyear journey that has already begun to pay dividends. Our new structure has allowed us to invest additional capital and talent in those projects with the greatest opportunity to drive growth, including our digital transformation and connected products, which we believe have the potential to transform our entire space.

透過取消那些不創造價值的活動，我們為那些創造價值的活動創造了空間。這是一個多年的旅程，已經開始帶來紅利。我們的新結構使我們能夠在那些最有機會推動成長的項目上投入更多的資本和人才，包括我們的數位轉型和互聯產品，我們相信這些項目有潛力改變我們的整個領域。

We now also have a dedicated transformation and integration office reporting directly to me, which is responsible for driving progress on the key growth initiatives across the company, and we are now able to deploy our best talent and our Fortune Brands Advantage capabilities across the entire enterprise in a much more rapid, efficient and holistic fashion.

我們現在還有一個專門的轉型和整合辦公室，直接向我報告，負責推動整個公司關鍵增長計劃的進展，我們現在能夠在整個企業內部署我們最優秀的人才和我們的財富品牌優勢能力以更加快速、高效和全面的方式。

There has been an enormous amount of change across the organization, but our 12,000 associates across the globe have leaned into the change and embraced our transformation in a way that is nothing short of exceptional. I'm so proud of our team. Fortune Brands Innovations is stronger, more agile and more aligned than it has ever been.

整個組織發生了巨大的變革，但我們全球 12,000 名員工已經積極參與變革，並以非同尋常的方式接受我們的轉型。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪。 Fortune Brands Innovations 比以往任何時候都更強大、更敏捷、更一致。

One of the key areas that we have identified as a growth catalyst is connected products. Today, I want to help put this business in its proper context. Our leading brands advantage route to market and technology backbone, makes us uniquely positioned to capture growth in the connected products space. A recently aligned organization is helping us fully unlock our potential across the full company.

我們認為成長催化劑的關鍵領域之一是互聯產品。今天，我想幫助將這項業務置於正確的背景中。我們的領導品牌擁有進入市場和技術骨幹的優勢途徑，使我們處於獨特的地位，能夠抓住互聯產品領域的成長。最近調整的組織正在幫助我們充分釋放整個公司的潛力。

The addition of Yale and August enhances our capabilities and product set, giving us the scale and talent to lead in connected products. Now their strengths combined, we are further on the path to becoming a digital innovative disruptor.

耶魯大學和 August 的加入增強了我們的能力和產品組合，使我們具備了在互聯產品領域處於領先地位的規模和人才。現在，他們的優勢結合在一起，我們正在成為數位創新顛覆者的道路上進一步前進。

From 2020 to 2022, Fortune Brands connected product sales nearly tripled and this was during a chip-constrained environment that limited us from reaching our full sales potential. Including our recent acquisitions, our annualized run rate of connected product sales approaches $250 million.

從 2020 年到 2022 年，Fortune Brands 的連網產品銷售額幾乎增加了兩倍，而這是在晶片受限的環境下實現的，這限制了我們充分發揮銷售潛力。包括我們最近的收購在內，我們互聯產品銷售的年化運行率接近 2.5 億美元。

Today, we have 4.5 million activations of our connected products, and we expect those numbers to grow exponentially as we continue to transform and disrupt the market.

如今，我們的互聯產品已被激活 450 萬次，隨著我們不斷轉型和顛覆市場，我們預計這些數字將呈指數級增長。

Our connected product portfolio offers real solutions to real needs for making life easier and more secure for the individual to addressing some of the world's most pressing sustainability and safety issues. Businesses are using our Master Lock connected access solutions to help them work more efficiently. Individuals with Yale and August Smart Residential Locks, have peace of mind and have been free from using keys. Homeowners with products from the Moen Smart Water Network, including our AI-enabled flow, Smart Water Monitor and Shutoff can better protect against damaging and costly leaks in their homes. I cannot overstate the potential positive impact our Smart Water products can have on homeowners, insurance companies and on the environment as we look to save billions of dollars in preventable water damage claims and trillions of gallons of water.

我們的互聯產品組合針對實際需求提供真正的解決方案，使個人的生活更輕鬆、更安全，從而解決世界上一些最緊迫的永續發展和安全問題。企業正在使用我們的瑪斯特鎖互聯門禁解決方案來幫助他們更有效率地工作。擁有 Yale 和 August 智慧住宅鎖的個人可以高枕無憂，不再需要使用鑰匙。擁有摩恩智慧水網路產品（包括我們的人工智慧水流、智慧水監控器和截止閥）的房主可以更好地防止家中發生損壞和代價高昂的洩漏。我無法誇大我們的智慧水產品對房主、保險公司和環境的潛在積極影響，因為我們希望節省數十億美元的可預防水損害索賠和數萬億加侖的水。

While our connected product journey is well on its way, we have much more runway ahead, including our ability to deliver first-of-its-kind connected products and ecosystems. We will continue to innovate to make our homes, communities and the planet smarter, safer and more sustainable. Expect much more from us as we continue to evolve this growth engine for our business.

雖然我們的互聯產品之旅進展順利，但我們還有更多的路要走，包括我們提供同類首個互聯產品和生態系統的能力。我們將繼續創新，讓我們的家園、社區和地球變得更聰明、更安全、更永續。隨著我們繼續發展我們業務的成長引擎，對我們抱持更多的期望。

Before I turn to the individual business's performance, I would like to put our results in their proper context. We were well prepared for the challenges that we are currently facing and took meaningful action in anticipation of the environment. As a result of these actions, we were able to deliver solid top and bottom line results. As the external market remains soft due to affordability concerns and macro uncertainty, we will continue to protect our business, our prioritizing investment in a tight set of key strategic priorities, such as those just discussed, in order to win for the long term.

在討論個別企業的績效之前，我想先將我們的結果放在適當的背景下。我們為當前面臨的挑戰做好了充分準備，並針對環境問題採取了有意義的行動。由於這些行動，我們能夠實現可靠的營收和利潤結果。由於對負擔能力的擔憂和宏觀不確定性，外部市場仍然疲軟，我們將繼續保護我們的業務，優先投資於一系列嚴格的關鍵戰略優先事項，例如剛才討論的那些，以便贏得長期勝利。

In the third quarter, Water Innovation sales were $688 million, an increase of 8% compared to the prior year quarter. Our margins for the segment were 24.2% and on an organic basis and excluding FX, sales decreased 3% due to market-driven volume declines, partially offset by price. Our Moen North Americas business was down low single digits versus last year's third quarter due to lower volumes as a result of market softness, particularly in retail.

第三季度，Water Innovation 銷售額為 6.88 億美元，較去年同期成長 8%。我們該部門的利潤率為 24.2%，在有機基礎上（不包括外匯），由於市場驅動的銷量下降，銷售額下降了 3%，但部分被價格抵消。與去年第三季相比，我們的摩恩北美業務下降了低個位數，因為市場疲軟（尤其是零售業）導致銷量下降。

However, our POS data showed that we gained share in the market, driven by our strong outperformance in the key wholesale channel. Retail promotional activity increased in the quarter. We've been highly strategic about our promotional activity to ensure our promos are targeted and tailored to drive the best results.

然而，我們的 POS 數據顯示，由於我們在主要批發管道的強勁表現，我們的市佔率有所增加。本季零售促銷活動增加。我們對促銷活動採取高度策略性的策略，以確保我們的促銷活動具有針對性和量身定制，以獲得最佳效果。

Organic House of ROHL sales were down low single digits in the quarter. The U.S. luxury consumer continues to remain relatively resilient and our high-quality artisanal crafted products resonate.

Organic House of ROHL 銷售額本季下降了低個位數。美國奢侈品消費者持續保持相對彈性，我們的高品質手工製品引起共鳴。

Our recently acquired Emtek business performed above our expectations in the quarter. We are extremely pleased by the progress of the integration of Emtek. The more I learn about this business and their commitment to the consumer and the customer, the more impressed I am. I look forward to a bright future as we bring all of the brands together under the House of ROHL platform, which is now a uniquely positioned global luxury powerhouse with exceptional growth potential.

我們最近收購的 Emtek 業務本季的表現超出了我們的預期。我們對 Emtek 的整合進展感到非常高興。我對這項業務及其對消費者和客戶的承諾了解得越多，給我留下的印象就越深刻。我期待著光明的未來，因為我們將所有品牌整合到 House of ROHL 平台下，該平台現在已成為一家定位獨特、具有非凡成長潛力的全球奢侈品巨頭。

In China, sales were down low teens year-over-year or mid-single digits, excluding FX. While we saw higher-than-expected project completions as the government is increasingly incentivizing developers to deliver finished projects, the overall market remains soft and the Chinese consumer remains cautious. However, on non-developer channels that focus on the emerging R&R market, which include showroom, home decorator and e-commerce, all saw growth, and our business is well positioned to capture the market evolution away from new construction.

在中國，不包括外匯在內，銷售額比去年同期下降了十幾位數或中個位數。儘管由於政府越來越激勵開發商交付已完工的項目，我們看到項目竣工量高於預期，但整體市場仍然疲軟，中國消費者仍然保持謹慎態度。然而，在專注於新興 R&R 市場的非開發商管道，包括陳列室、家居裝飾和電子商務，都出現了成長，我們的業務處於有利位置，能夠抓住新建築市場的發展趨勢。

Turning to our Outdoor segment. Sales declined 9% in the quarter, reflecting market softness, particularly in the doors business. Our margins were 14.8%. In decking, third quarter sales were up mid-single digits versus prior year as we gained share in the key wholesale channel. Looking forward, we are focused on driving meaningful innovation in this space and have the resources and talent to innovate for the future in this growth category.

轉向我們的戶外部分。本季銷售額下降 9%，反映市場疲軟，尤其是門業。我們的利潤率為 14.8%。在裝飾方面，隨著我們在主要批發管道的份額增加，第三季銷售額比去年同期增長了中個位數。展望未來，我們致力於推動這一領域有意義的創新，並擁有資源和人才在這一成長類別的未來進行創新。

In Doors, sales declined low double digits as the slowdown from the 2022 single-family new construction market continues to impact Therma-Tru and general market softness remains in the space.

在門方面，由於 2022 年單戶新建建築市場放緩繼續影響 Therma-Tru，且該領域總體市場疲軟，銷售額出現低兩位數下降。

Looking forward, as the impact of the recent improvement in the single-family new construction market begins to float through in late 2023 and early 2024, we expect to see improving results from Outdoor brand.

展望未來，隨著近期單戶新建築市場改善的影響開始於 2023 年底和 2024 年初顯現，我們預計戶外品牌的業績將有所改善。

Lastly, in Security, third quarter sales increased 32% year-over-year and grew 6% organically. Operating margins for the segment were 16.8%. Our organic results were driven by price and continued growth in commercial and international markets. Importantly, improvement in our operating margin is a true testament to the power of the new organizational structure and our Fortune Brands Advantage capabilities. We expect we will continue to see even more impressive margin results in Security as we continue to deploy these capabilities.

最後，在安全領域，第三季銷售額年增 32%，有機成長 6%。該部門的營業利益率為 16.8%。我們的有機績效是由價格以及商業和國際市場的持續成長所推動的。重要的是，我們營業利潤率的提高真正證明了新組織結構的力量和我們財富品牌優勢的能力。我們預計，隨著我們繼續部署這些功能，我們將繼續在安全領域看到更令人印象深刻的利潤結果。

As we integrate Yale and August, we continue to be extremely impressed by their innovative focus and start-up mentality. There's clearly deep talent and passion, and I look forward to seeing their knowledge and insights contribute to the entire Fortune Brands connected product portfolio.

當我們整合耶魯大學和 August 時，我們仍然對他們的創新重點和創業心態印象深刻。他們顯然擁有深厚的才華和熱情，我期待看到他們的知識和見解為整個 Fortune Brands 互聯產品組合做出貢獻。

Importantly, Yale and August exceeded our expectations as they recover from the impact of chip shortages and are working to develop new customers and channels. As with Emtek, the more I learn about these incredible brands and the teams who support them, the more enthusiastic I am.

重要的是，耶魯大學和 August 超出了我們的預期，因為他們從晶片短缺的影響中恢復過來，並正在努力開發新客戶和管道。與 Emtek 一樣，我對這些令人難以置信的品牌和支持它們的團隊了解得越多，我就越熱情。

Before I turn the call to Dave, let me share a few final thoughts. Our reorganization into a more efficient centralized company, focusing on brands, innovation and channel has progressed faster than we anticipated, thanks to the strong engagement and trust from our teams.

在我打電話給戴夫之前，讓我先分享一些最後的想法。由於我們團隊的大力參與和信任，我們重組為一家更有效率的集中式公司，專注於品牌、創新和管道，進展速度比我們預期的要快。

We continue to invest in our key strategic priorities, including our iconic brands, digital transformation and meaningful innovation. We are growing our connected products portfolio. And finally, we made meaningful progress in the integration of our transformative acquisition.

我們繼續投資於我們的關鍵策略重點，包括我們的標誌性品牌、數位轉型和有意義的創新。我們正在擴大我們的互聯產品組合。最後，我們在變革性收購的整合方面取得了有意義的進展。

We are transforming Fortune Brands into an even more growth-focused, highly innovative company in spite of continued external and macro headwinds. I'm encouraged by all that we have accomplished and excited about what we will achieve next.

儘管面臨持續的外部和宏觀阻力，我們正在將財富品牌轉變為更注重成長、高度創新的公司。我對我們所取得的一切成就感到鼓舞，並對我們下一步將取得的成就感到興奮。

We're constantly monitoring and are well prepared to respond to uncertain end markets in the short term, while we position ourselves for accelerating long-term outperformance in the market supported by fundamental growth characteristics. As we head into the last part of 2023 and as we set our sights on 2024, we are focused on execution and delivering on our commitment to above-market sales growth and margin performance.

我們不斷監控並做好充分準備，以應對短期內不確定的終端市場，同時我們將自己定位為在基本成長特徵的支持下加速市場的長期優異表現。當我們進入 2023 年的最後階段並著眼於 2024 年時，我們的重點是執行和兌現我們對高於市場的銷售成長和利潤率表現的承諾。

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave.

有了這個，我會把它交給戴夫。

Thanks, Nick. As a reminder, my comments will focus on income before charges and gains to best reflect ongoing business performance. Additionally, comparisons will be made against the same period last year, unless otherwise noted. Let me start with our third quarter results.

謝謝，尼克。提醒一下，我的評論將重點放在收費前收入和收益，以最好地反映持續的業務績效。此外，除非另有說明，否則將與去年同期進行比較。讓我從第三季的業績開始。

As Nick highlighted, our teams executed well and delivered solid sales, margin and free cash flow performance. Sales were $1.3 billion, up 5% and consolidated operating income was $220 million, up 2%. Total company operating margin improved sequentially to 17.4% and earnings per share were $1.19, up 3%.

正如尼克所強調的，我們的團隊執行得很好，並實現了穩健的銷售、利潤和自由現金流表現。銷售額為 13 億美元，成長 5%，綜合營業收入為 2.2 億美元，成長 2%。公司總營業利益率較上季提高至 17.4%，每股收益為 1.19 美元，成長 3%。

Free cash flow in the quarter was $269 million, which brings our year-to-date free cash flow generation to $660 million.

本季的自由現金流為 2.69 億美元，這使我們年初至今的自由現金流達到 6.6 億美元。

Turning to sales. On an organic basis, net sales were down 4%, driven by volume declines. Overall, volume was down mid-single digits driven by high single-digit POS volume declines, partially offset by low single-digit favorable channel inventory comparables. Price contributed a low single-digit benefit in the quarter.

轉向銷售。在有機基礎上，由於銷量下降，淨銷售額下降了 4%。總體而言，由於 POS 銷量高個位數下降，銷量下降了中個位數，但部分被低個位數的有利渠道庫存可比性所抵消。價格在本季度貢獻了較低的個位數收益。

Through the quarter, our POS volume softened sequentially in line with normal seasonal trends and DIY channels continue to remain softer than Pro channels. Our operating margin of 17.4% reflects our team's continued ability to drive continuous improvement savings and fund key strategic priorities, while remaining agile in the face of challenging end markets.

整個季度，我們的 POS 銷售量以正常季節性趨勢連續走軟，DIY 通路持續保持比專業通路疲軟的狀態。我們 17.4% 的營業利潤率反映了我們團隊持續推動持續改善節約和為關鍵策略優先事項提供資金的能力，同時在面對充滿挑戰的終端市場時保持敏捷。

Our teams remain focused on driving above-market growth, preserving and enhancing margins and generating cash. As I will detail later, our balance sheet remains strong and we have the flexibility to manage through various economic outcomes, while deploying additional capital to drive shareholder value.

我們的團隊仍然專注於推動高於市場的成長、維持和提高利潤以及創造現金。正如我稍後將詳細介紹的那樣，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，我們可以靈活地管理各種經濟成果，同時部署額外的資本來提高股東價值。

Now let me provide more color on our segment results. Beginning with Water Innovations, sales were $688 million, up 8%. Organic sales were down 4% or down 3% excluding the impact of FX. The organic net sales results reflect the impact of lower volumes, partially offset by price. Water Innovations operating income was $166 million and operating margin remained strong at 24.2%, reflecting lower volumes, partially offset by continuous improvement initiatives.

現在讓我為我們的細分結果提供更多資訊。從 Water Innovations 開始，銷售額達 6.88 億美元，成長 8%。有機銷售額下降 4%，若排除外匯影響則下降 3%。有機淨銷售額結果反映了銷售下降的影響，部分被價格抵銷。 Water Innovations 營業收入為 1.66 億美元，營業利潤率維持在 24.2% 的強勁水平，反映出銷量下降，但部分被持續改進舉措所抵消。

U.S. Moen point of sale was down mid-single digits while U.S. House of ROHL point of sale was down low single digits. The luxury consumer continues to outperform the broader market.

美國Moen銷售點下降了中個位數，而美國House of ROHL銷售點下降了低個位數。奢侈品消費者的表現持續跑贏大盤。

China sales declined low teens or down mid-single digits when adjusting for the impact of FX. The Chinese market remains soft and though the completion of delayed projects accelerated as a result of government programs, new home sales and starts are moderating as the Chinese consumer remains cautious. That said, we continue to see growth in the emerging R&R channels, including at brick-and-mortar locations and online. As we have stated, our performance in the face of challenging external conditions has been nothing short of remarkable, and we are confident we will lead as that market continues to evolve.

在根據匯率影響進行調整後，中國銷售額下降了十幾位數或中個位數。中國市場依然疲軟，儘管政府計劃導致延遲專案的完成速度加快，但由於中國消費者仍持謹慎態度，新房銷售和開工量正在放緩。也就是說，我們繼續看到新興的 R&R 通路的成長，包括實體店和線上通路。正如我們所說，面對充滿挑戰的外部條件，我們的表現非常出色，我們有信心隨著市場的不斷發展，我們將處於領先地位。

Turning to outdoors. Sales were $366 million, down 9%. POS for the segment was down low double digits, which was partially offset by mid-single-digit favorable channel inventory benefit from the prior year comparable. Segment operating income was $54.3 million, down 18%. Operating margins for the third quarter were 14.8%, driven by reduced volumes.

轉向戶外。銷售額為 3.66 億美元，下降 9%。該部門的 POS 下降了兩位數，但部分被去年可比較的中位數有利渠道庫存效益所抵消。部門營業收入為 5,430 萬美元，下降 18%。由於銷量減少，第三季營業利潤率為 14.8%。

Door sales were down low double digits. As expected, sales were impacted by lower volumes from single-family new construction and market softness. However, these brands should be positively impacted by the recently improved new construction environment as we look toward 2024.

門銷量下降了兩位數。正如預期的那樣，銷售受到單戶新建築銷售下降和市場疲軟的影響。然而，展望 2024 年，這些品牌應該會受到最近改善的新建築環境的正面影響。

In Decking, we saw sales increased mid-single digits in the quarter driven by mid-single-digit POS growth in the wholesale channel.

在裝飾方面，我們看到本季銷售額成長了中個位數，這得益於批發通路中個位數的 POS 成長。

Finally, in Security, sales increased 32% to $207 million or 6% on an organic basis, reflecting the impact of the acquisition, increased distribution, price and continued strength in Master Lock's commercial and international channels.

最後，在安全領域，銷售額成長了 32%，達到 2.07 億美元，有機成長 6%，反映了收購、分銷、價格增加以及瑪斯特鎖商業和國際通路持續實力的影響。

Total Security segment operating income was $35 million, up 46%, and operating margin was 16.8%, an increase of 170 basis points. Utilizing the playbook first deployed in our Water Innovations business, our team continues to work to transform our security business into a higher-growth, higher-margin business focused on attractive categories where our brands and innovations can drive consumer and customer share gains over time. This strategy will be accelerated by the continued integration of Yale and August.

Total Security 部門營業收入為 3,500 萬美元，成長 46%，營業利潤率為 16.8%，成長 170 個基點。利用首次在我們的水創新業務中部署的劇本，我們的團隊繼續努力將我們的安全業務轉變為高成長、高利潤的業務，專注於有吸引力的類別，在這些類別中，我們的品牌和創新可以隨著時間的推移推動消費者和客戶份額的成長。耶魯大學和 August 的持續整合將加速這項策略。

Turning to the balance sheet and our cash flow performance. Our balance sheet remains strong with cash of $453 million, net debt of $2.4 billion and net debt-to-EBITDA leverage at 2.6x. Our working capital reduction efforts continue to shrink our balance sheet and generate cash. We continue to make excellent progress against our near-term inventory reduction targets and our organic third quarter inventory finished at $829 million, down roughly $260 million from our peak in 2022.

轉向資產負債表和我們的現金流表現。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，現金為 4.53 億美元，淨負債為 24 億美元，淨負債與 EBITDA 槓桿比率為 2.6 倍。我們削減營運資本的努力繼續縮小資產負債表並產生現金。我們繼續在近期庫存削減目標方面取得出色進展，第三季有機庫存最終達到 8.29 億美元，比 2022 年的高峰減少了約 2.6 億美元。

Our impressive free cash flow of $269 million in the quarter, allowed us to make significant progress in deleveraging following our recent acquisition. In addition, our cash generation enabled us to opportunistically repurchase $30 million of shares in the quarter. And as of today, our total 2023 share repurchases are $150 million.

本季我們的自由現金流達到令人印象深刻的 2.69 億美元，這使我們在最近的收購後在去槓桿化方面取得了重大進展。此外，我們的現金產生能力使我們能夠在本季度趁機回購 3,000 萬美元的股票。截至今天，我們 2023 年股票回購總額為 1.5 億美元。

To summarize the quarter, we delivered solid sales and margin results in a soft environment, while further reducing inventory levels and generating significant cash flow.

總結本季度，我們在疲軟的環境中實現了穩健的銷售和利潤業績，同時進一步降低了庫存水平並產生了大量現金流。

With that in mind, I'll now provide an update to our 2023 guidance. As today's press release indicates, we are updating our full year 2023 guidance to reflect our current expectations and market conditions. Due to our continued strong execution and agility in this dynamic environment, we are increasing the midpoint of our EPS guidance by $0.02 and narrowing the overall range to $3.80 to $3.90. In total, our updated EPS guidance reflects a $0.15 increase over the midpoint of our initial guidance earlier this year.

考慮到這一點，我現在將提供 2023 年指南的更新。正如今天的新聞稿所示，我們正在更新 2023 年全年指引，以反映我們當前的預期和市場狀況。由於我們在這種動態環境中持續保持強勁的執行力和敏捷性，我們將 EPS 指導的中點提高了 0.02 美元，並將總體範圍縮小至 3.80 美元至 3.90 美元。總的來說，我們更新後的每股盈餘指引比我們今年稍早最初指引的中位數增加了 0.15 美元。

As a reminder, our fourth quarter EPS will be unfavorably impacted by $0.05 as a result of a nonrecurring extra fiscal week in the fourth quarter of last year.

提醒一下，由於去年第四季的非經常性額外財政週，我們第四季的每股盈餘將受到 0.05 美元的不利影響。

We are also updating our sales and margin guidance to reflect current market conditions, including a softer-than-anticipated second half R&R market, which is predominantly impacting sales in our Outdoor segment.

我們也更新了我們的銷售和利潤指引，以反映當前的市場狀況，包括下半年 R&R 市場的疲軟，這主要影響了我們戶外部門的銷售。

The full details of our updated guidance can be found in our press release.

我們更新指南的完整詳細資訊可以在我們的新聞稿中找到。

As we head into 2024, we are actively planning for a variety of scenarios. While it would not be prudent for us to provide a full set of guidance assumptions for 2024 at this point, we are able to share some initial thoughts.

邁入 2024 年，我們正在積極規劃各種場景。雖然我們現在提供 2024 年的全套指導假設並不明智，但我們可以分享一些初步想法。

Our base planning assumptions currently include a low single-digit market decline, with U.S. R&R also down low single digits. Our U.S. single-family new construction market is up low single digits. Based on the impact of second half 2023 (inaudible) and a 2024 starts and completion forecast of up 3% to 5% and roughly flat, respectively.

目前，我們的基本規劃假設包括市場出現低個位數下降，美國 R&R 也出現低個位數下降。我們的美國單戶新建建築市場呈現低個位數成長。基於 2023 年下半年（聽不清楚）和 2024 年開工和竣工預測的影響，預計將分別成長 3% 至 5% 和大致持平。

We expect China and Canada markets to be more challenged than the U.S., both down high single digits. We would expect our organic sales to beat this market estimate and given the work we continue to do to replatform the business and drive efficiencies, we see a path to operating margin improvement and earnings growth if the market is down low single digits or better.

我們預期中國和加拿大市場將比美國面臨更大的挑戰，均出現高個位數下降。我們預計我們的有機銷售額將超過這個市場預期，考慮到我們繼續開展的業務重組和提高效率的工作，如果市場下降低個位數或更好，我們將看到營業利潤率改善和盈利成長的途徑。

Our teams have done a fantastic job navigating the uncertainty of the past few years. And as we approach the end of 2023, we remain confident about the future of the business and our team's ability to create value regardless of the macro environment.

我們的團隊在應對過去幾年的不確定性方面做得非常出色。隨著 2023 年底的臨近，無論宏觀環境如何，我們對業務的未來以及我們團隊創造價值的能力仍然充滿信心。

I will now pass the call back to Leigh for question-and-answer session. Leigh?

我現在將把電話轉回 Leigh 進行問答環節。利？

Thanks, Dave. That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now begin taking a limited number of questions. Since there may be a number of you who would like to ask a question, I will ask that you limit your initial questions to 2 and then reenter the queue to ask additional questions.

謝謝，戴夫。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將開始回答有限數量的問題。由於可能有很多人想提問，我會要求你們將最初的問題限制為 2 個，然後重新進入隊列詢問其他問題。

I will now turn the call back to the operator to begin the question-and-answer session. Operator?

我現在將把電話轉回接線生以開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

Maybe to start off on the guide and kind of how you're looking at the fourth quarter here. Clearly, a lot of cross-currents in the market. I think you just mentioned some deceleration on the DIY side, sort of looking at the guide, it looks like you're implying some sequential deceleration in the top line. So just -- I know we can kind of back into what you gave, given with the full year guide, but just sort of any puts and takes, upside, downside to how you're thinking about the fourth quarter.

也許可以從指南開始，以及您對第四季的看法。顯然，市場上存在著許多分歧。我想你剛剛提到了 DIY 方面的一些減速，有點看指南，看起來你在暗示頂線上有一些連續的減速。所以，我知道我們可以回顧一下您在全年指南中給出的內容，但只是談談您對第四季度的看法的任何看跌、上行和下行。

Matt, why don't I give you some kind of high-level thoughts on that, and then Dave can take you through some of the puts and takes. But a couple of things. I mean certainly, just from -- as we said in the prepared remarks, the market has been more or less as we've expected. I think with some of the point-of-sale DIY, maybe some of the retail stuffing a bit softer, single-family new construction being a bit stronger. And as we see how it plays through the year, the top line performance of every quarter has been improving. And so as we look to the fourth quarter, on an organic basis, now that 53rd week, we'd expect that to be flat, which is a sequential improvement. And so good to see the business kind of coming back to flat in particular with the market outperformance.

馬特，我為什麼不給你一些關於這方面的高層次的想法，然後戴夫可以帶你完成一些投入和採取的事情。但有幾件事。我的意思是，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，市場或多或少符合我們的預期。我認為，隨著一些銷售點的DIY，也許一些零售的填充物會更軟一些，單戶新建築會更堅固一些。正如我們看到它全年的表現一樣，每季的營收表現都在改善。因此，當我們從有機角度展望第四季度時，即第 53 週，我們預計該季度將持平，這是一個連續的改善。很高興看到業務恢復平穩，尤其是在市場表現出色的情況下。

And then as I look at some of the actual dollar point of sale that we get, which is more retail-based that's actually held remarkably steady for the last, call it, 10 to 12 weeks on a dollar basis. So obviously, comparables move around in terms of percentages versus last year. But just what are consumers doing when they go into stores, what are the dollars they're spending. That's been very steady. So while we'd like it to be higher, the predictability of seeing a kind of steady line sort of feeds into our degree of confidence during the fourth quarter. Dave, do you want to add more color to it?

然後，當我查看我們獲得的一些實際銷售點的美元金額時，這些銷售點更多地以零售為基礎，實際上在過去 10 到 12 週（以美元計算）實際上保持了非常穩定。顯然，與去年相比，可比較數據的百分比有所變化。但消費者走進商店時在做什麼，他們花了多少錢。這一直很穩定。因此，雖然我們希望它更高，但看到某種穩定線的可預測性在某種程度上增強了我們對第四季的信心。戴夫，你想為它添加更多顏色嗎？

I'm happy to provide a bit more color. I think starting with sales, if you look at our organic performance throughout the year each quarter, as Nick mentioned, we've gotten better versus prior year. So it started down 10% in the first quarter, then down 8%, now down 5%, and we'd expect the fourth quarter to be flat, excluding that extra fiscal week comp or likely down 3% to 4% reported organically when you factor in that comp. So nice sequential improvement versus the prior year on the sales line.

我很高興提供更多的顏色。我認為從銷售開始，如果你看看我們全年每個季度的有機表現，正如尼克提到的那樣，我們比去年有了更好的表現。因此，第一季開始下降 10%，然後下降 8%，現在下降 5%，我們預計第四季度將持平，不包括額外的財政週補償，或者可能會有機報告下降 3% 至 4%。你把這個因素被考慮在內。與前一年相比，銷售線上的連續改善非常好。

And then on margin, we still see the second half operating margin around 16.5% or better, which would imply a fourth quarter of 15.5% or better, which is expected in the fourth quarter to see a bit of a sequential pullback from the third quarter just given volumes are down, but still well ahead of where we were in the first quarter, which is our other low volume quarter.

然後在利潤率方面，我們仍然認為下半年營業利潤率約為 16.5% 或更高，這意味著第四季度為 15.5% 或更高，預計第四季度將比第三季度有所回落考慮到銷量有所下降，但仍遠遠領先第一季度，這是我們另一個低銷量季度。

So we feel good about how the business is managing, I think both the top line and the margin opportunity. And then if you think about just EPS, I'd remind people that our prior year had 2 favorable impacts that won't repeat, one being the flow-through from that extra fiscal week and the other being some favorable tax outcomes as we spun cabinets that were onetime in nature.

因此，我們對業務的管理方式感到滿意，我認為無論是收入還是利潤機會。然後，如果您只考慮每股收益，我會提醒人們，我們上一年有兩個不會重複的有利影響，一個是額外財政週的流量，另一個是我們旋轉時的一些有利的稅收結果曾經的櫥櫃。

So as we look at EPS in the quarter, we see something normalized that's down low single digits or better versus the prior year. So I know our teams are still working hard to capitalize on opportunities in the quarter, but still feel like we're managing the business well given the environment.

因此，當我們查看本季的每股盈餘時，我們發現與前一年相比，正常化的每股盈餘下降了低個位數或更好。因此，我知道我們的團隊仍在努力利用本季的機會，但仍然感覺在當前的環境下我們的業務管理得很好。

Got it. Okay. Second one, a little higher level. Now that you've had the assets on your team for another quarter and been able to dig in and get the integration underway. I'm curious, you had some comments at the top alluding to this, but sort of what have you learned incrementally as you've been able to dig into the assets. And specifically, the comments you made around the help with how Yale and August could benefit your connected products portfolio.

知道了。好的。第二個，等級高一點。現在，您的團隊已經擁有了另一個季度的資產，並且能夠深入挖掘並開始整合。我很好奇，您在頂部有一些評論提到了這一點，但是當您能夠深入研究這些資產時，您逐漸學到了什麼。具體來說，您圍繞耶魯大學和 August 如何使您的互聯產品組合受益的幫助發表了評論。

Curious number one, do your synergy targets include benefits to the Connected Products portfolio? And then just number two, more broadly, as you looked into this further, what areas of upside could you see in those synergy targets?

好奇的第一個問題是，您的協同目標是否包括對互聯產品組合的好處？第二，更廣泛地說，當你進一步研究這個問題時，你可以在這些協同目標中看到哪些上行空間？

Yes. I'd be happy to take that question. We were -- as you heard in the prepared remarks, we're just delighted with the acquisition. Even putting aside the fantastic value that came across that just the quality of the assets themselves are really phenomenal. The quality of the teams that support those assets, are fantastic and the performance since we've owned them has even exceeded our expectations on the top line.

是的。我很樂意回答這個問題。正如您在準備好的發言中聽到的那樣，我們對此次收購感到高興。即使拋開所帶來的巨大價值，資產本身的品質也確實是驚人的。支持這些資產的團隊的品質非常出色，自我們擁有它們以來的表現甚至超出了我們對營收的預期。

And on the bottom, you'll see that we've actually been able to accelerate some of our investments in the integration just because the integration is going really well. And so that's kind of the big-picture message. Now it's a great question, what have we learned? I take each of it separately. But certainly, it's sort of the Emtek business. I mean they're just really remarkable, continue to gain share, really, really outperformed the market. We were just recently on a market visit and speaking to one of our customers pointed to displays in a relatively small footprint of the store and said, this is 50% of the sales in the category just from this little area. And I think it just speaks to how powerful the brand is. What we've really learned is what is the formula that supports that and the business model and how does that work as profitably as it does.

在底部，您會看到我們實際上已經能夠加速我們在整合方面的一些投資，只是因為整合進展得非常順利。這就是大局資訊。現在這是一個很好的問題，我們學到了什麼？我分別對待每一個。但可以肯定的是，這屬於 Emtek 業務。我的意思是他們真的非常出色，繼續獲得份額，真的，真的跑贏了市場。我們最近剛進行一次市場訪問，與我們的一位客戶交談時，他指出商店佔地面積相對較小的陳列品，並表示，該類別銷售額的 50% 就來自這個小區域。我認為這正好說明了這個品牌的力量有多大。我們真正學到的是支持這一點的公式和商業模式是什麼，以及它是如何獲利的。

And so a lot of learnings coming from that, that are starting to be integrated into the whole House of ROHL strategy. And so just last week, we were going over annual operating plans and those teams are coming together, not just thinking about how do we offer these as an entire suite of product, which was part of our initial thesis, but really thinking how do we elevate the best of the best in the business models to be an even better solution for customers and designers.

因此，從中學到的許多東西開始融入整個 House of ROHL 策略中。因此，就在上週，我們正在審查年度營運計劃，這些團隊聚集在一起，不僅考慮我們如何將這些作為一整套產品提供（這是我們最初論文的一部分），而且真正思考我們如何提升商業模式中的精華，為客戶和設計師提供更好的解決方案。

And so we think there's a lot of potential and a lot we can learn there. And then on the Yale and August side, look, we're very proud of the connected products progress that we've made and the digital initiatives that we've made up to this point, but getting to know those teams, I mean, they really are in mid-cycle area like a mid-cycle start-up. And a lot of that team is the original August team, which spends some time in speaking to people in that part of the world. They are some of the most highly respected connected engineers around.

所以我們認為那裡有很大的潛力，我們可以學到很多。然後在耶魯大學和奧古斯特方面，我們對我們所取得的互聯產品進步以及我們迄今為止所製定的數位計劃感到非常自豪，但要了解這些團隊，我的意思是，他們確實處於中期週期區域，就像中期新創企業一樣。團隊的許多成員都是原來的 August 團隊，他們花了一些時間與世界那個地區的人們交談。他們是最受尊敬的互聯工程師之一。

And so we're really looking to them to help lead us as we think about how to bring these teams together and how do we take what we've already created, which we're really proud of. The investment that we're already making, which is not as significant, and then combine it with what we just acquired. And we really think that could be a huge growth unlock.

因此，當我們思考如何將這些團隊聚集在一起以及我們如何利用我們已經創造的東西時，我們真的希望他們能夠幫助領導我們，我們對此感到非常自豪。我們已經進行的投資並不那麼重要，然後將其與我們剛剛獲得的投資結合。我們確實認為這可能會帶來巨大的成長。

And so you asked about synergies. I think we went in with a pretty good synergy case of some -- will call them easy because they take a lot of work with some lower-hanging fruit like distribution overlaps and those sorts of things. What we're coming away is with some transformational ideas around both the House of ROHL and the connected business that the teams are leading into, it's not me saying, you got to deliver more. I mean they sort of took the case and they said, we think we can do far more than this because we really think that this unlocks pretty significant growth for both portfolios.

所以你問到協同效應。我認為我們在某些​​方面取得了很好的協同作用——我們會稱它們很容易，因為它們需要做很多工作來解決一些容易實現的問題，例如分佈重疊之類的事情。我們即將提出的是圍繞 House of ROHL 和團隊正在進行的互聯業務的一些變革性想法，這不是我說的，你必須交付更多。我的意思是，他們接受了這個案例，他們說，我們認為我們可以做的遠不止於此，因為我們真的認為這將為兩個投資組合帶來相當顯著的成長。

And so those are being refined now, but we're really, really excited. And as you heard in the comments, I mean, the connected business now approximating and approaching $250 million on an annualized basis, but over 4 million activations and compounding at a really, really fast growth rate now feels like a scale connected business and connected platform and having one technological backbone to which we can continue to refine the products we have, but also add more to the ecosystem over time, is really, really exciting.

現在這些正在完善，但我們真的非常興奮。正如您在評論中聽到的那樣，我的意思是，互聯業務現在每年已接近2.5 億美元，但超過400 萬次激活和複利以非常非常快的速度增長，現在感覺就像是一個規模化的互聯業務和互聯平台擁有一個技術支柱，我們可以繼續完善我們擁有的產品，而且隨著時間的推移，也可以為生態系統添加更多內容，這真的非常令人興奮。

So I could go on for a while. I'll stop with some of the other questions, but you can tell we're pretty excited about it.

這樣我就可以繼續一段時間了。我將停止討論其他一些問題，但你可以看出我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

Nick, I actually did want to follow up on what Matt just asked to some extent on the connected product portfolio. Very interesting opportunity goes beyond Smart Locks, obviously, with Smart Water, you guys -- I think you mentioned you've tripled the sales over the past few years. So the question is, I mean, where do you go from here? What's sort of the expected growth trajectory? And what are the potential product expansion opportunities?

尼克，實際上我確實想在某種程度上跟進馬特剛剛提出的有關互聯產品組合的問題。非常有趣的機會不僅限於智慧鎖，顯然，還有智慧水，你們——我想你們提到在過去幾年裡你們的銷售額增加了兩倍。所以問題是，我的意思是，你要從這裡去哪裡？預期的成長軌跡是什麼樣的？潛在的產品擴展機會是什麼？

Yes. Well, John, thanks for that question. I mean we've really taken a big step forward, I think, through the STRAT plan cycle and really ask ourselves that question you just laid out, so just thinking about it incrementally. We're really like what is the addressable market here? And what do we expect that we could gain in terms of ownership of that market?

是的。好吧，約翰，謝謝你提出這個問題。我的意思是，我認為，透過 STRAT 計劃週期，我們確實向前邁出了一大步，並真正問自己剛才提出的問題，因此只需逐步思考即可。我們真的很想知道這裡的潛在市場是什麼？我們期望在該市場的所有權方面能夠獲得什麼？

And you touched on Smart Water. I mean when you look at the Smart Water opportunity from a number of different lenses, it is pretty staggering, right? Just to start with just the pure -- how much preventable water damage is there today. We think that's $15 billion of claims a year. It's greater than Fire and Burglary combined, right, so $15 billion of preventable water damage. I actually believe we're going to grow that addressable market because we're going to come up with more products that can address more types of preventable water damage. We can take that pretty much to zero. I mean we did a study with LexisNexis in 10,000 homes. We reduced 96% of the claims to zero, and the other 4% of claims, I believe, we reduced by over 70%. So pretty much going to zero.

您還談到了智慧水務。我的意思是，當您從多個不同的角度審視智慧水務機會時，您會發現這是相當驚人的，對吧？首先從純粹的角度開始——當今有多少可預防的水害。我們認為每年的索賠金額為 150 億美元。這比火災和入室盜竊的總和還多，對吧，可預防的水災損失高達 150 億美元。我實際上相信我們將擴大這個潛在市場，因為我們將推出更多產品來解決更多類型可預防的水害問題。我們可以將其幾乎為零。我的意思是，我們與 LexisNexis 一起對 10,000 個家庭進行了一項研究。我們將 96% 的索賠減少到零，另外 4% 的索賠，我相信我們減少了 70% 以上。所以幾乎是零。

There's an ESG lens to it, right? In addition to saving, we think potentially trillions of gallons of water, there's a huge energy component to processing and cleaning water. And so you take Mission Moen, which is really based on what we have in the market today, our commitment to save 1 trillion gallons by 2030, that according to the math available on the EPA website, so equivalent of us taking one million cars off the road for a year, right? And so you can start to see (inaudible) municipalities, right? It has a huge dollar value impact.

有一個 ESG 鏡頭，對嗎？除了節省之外，我們認為還可能節省數兆加侖的水，處理和清潔水還需要消耗大量能源。所以你可以選擇摩恩使命，它實際上是基於我們今天市場上的情況，我們承諾在 2030 年節省 1 兆加侖，根據 EPA 網站上提供的數學計算，這相當於我們減少 100 萬輛汽車一年的路吧？這樣你就可以開始看到（聽不清楚）市政當局了，對嗎？它對美元價值產生巨大影響。

And so the opportunity is huge. We're really not thinking of it as a multibillion dollar opportunity. We're building teams around really addressing not just the core product, making it better and better all the time, we're building an ecosystem around it. So when it connects to your Moen Irrigation, Smart Irrigation System or Moen Smart Faucet or your Moen Smart Sump Pump Monitor, and I could go on and on, it really gets better and better and smarter and smarter because it's able to speak to all these nodes in the home, understand what's going on and really do things like protect you from freezes because it can (inaudible) water out of your kitchen faucet or health protect if you're on vacation, from bacterial (inaudible) and things like that.

所以機會是巨大的。我們確實不認為這是一個價值數十億美元的機會。我們正在建立團隊，真正解決核心產品問題，使其變得越來越好，我們正在圍繞它建立一個生態系統。因此，當它連接到您的摩恩灌溉、智慧灌溉系統或摩恩智慧水龍頭或摩恩智慧污水泵監視器時，我可以繼續說下去，它真的變得越來越好，越來越智能，因為它能夠與所有這些對話家中的節點，了解正在發生的事情，並真正做一些事情，例如保護您免受冰凍，因為它可以（聽不清）從廚房水龍頭中流出水，或者在您度假時保護健康，免受細菌（聽不清楚）之類的東西的侵害。

And so we're really now leaning into this, I think, in a much more serious way. And as I just said in response to Matt's question, if you then add on the scale of having the Yale and August team come on board and think about what it is to be able to think about cloud as a single team or WiFi as a single team or AI, right, the Smart Water Network is AI-powered. So our AI team becomes sort of a single team with dedicated people to different projects and products. But still functioning as a scale team. We think the opportunity is really, really significant. And we look forward to speaking about it more in the future.

所以我認為，我們現在確實正在以一種更嚴肅的方式來解決這個問題。正如我剛才在回答 Matt 的問題時所說的那樣，如果您再加上讓耶魯大學和 August 團隊加入的規模，並思考一下能夠將雲端視為一個團隊或將 WiFi 視為一個團隊團隊或人工智慧，對吧，智慧水網路是由人工智慧驅動的。因此，我們的人工智慧團隊成為一個單一的團隊，由專門的人員負責不同的專案和產品。但仍作為一個規模團隊運作。我們認為這個機會真的非常重要。我們期待將來更多地談論它。

That's helpful color. And then the next question is on water specifically. The sales outlook was raised from, I think, flat to down 2% to now flat to down 1%. U.S. new construction a little better, China, a little worse. So I guess how are you thinking about House of ROHL and Moen in this equation, which I think were both down organically in the quarter. Then also what's driving the decrease in margin outlook from, I think, 23.5% to 23% on an improved sales outlook?

這是有用的顏色。下一個問題是關於水的。我認為銷售前景從持平到下降 2% 上調到現在持平到下降 1%。美國的新建工程好一點，中國的新建工程差一點。所以我猜你如何看待這個等式中的 House of ROHL 和 Moen，我認為這兩家公司在本季度都有所下降。那麼，隨著銷售前景的改善，是什麼導致利潤率前景從 23.5% 下降到 23%？

John, this is Dave. I'll handle the margin one first. I think it's more around some of the accelerated investments that we're making, as Nick mentioned, some with the Emtek acquisition and then some (inaudible). And so as we've talked about in the past, our margin quarter-to-quarter stays in that low to mid-20s, and you may see some fluctuations. It was 24.2% in the third quarter, and we'll step back a little bit in the fourth, but more around investment timing than anything else.

約翰，這是戴夫。我會先處理保證金。我認為這更多是圍繞著我們正在進行的一些加速投資，正如尼克提到的，有些是透過收購 Emtek 進行的，有些則是（聽不清楚）。正如我們過去談到的，我們的季度利潤率保持在 20 左右的低水平，你可能會看到一些波動。第三季為 24.2%，第四季我們會稍微回落，但更多的是圍繞投資時機。

And then on the sales line, the team really continues to perform well and drive outperformance. And so House of ROHL, as we've mentioned, down low single digit organically in the third quarter, probably at similar levels in the fourth quarter. And then for Moen America, it's a similar performance we see, down low single digits in the fourth quarter, which really implies that our POS run rate stays at mid-single digits or better, and we have some favorable inventory tailwinds from last year that we've discussed.

然後在銷售線上，團隊確實繼續表現良好並推動表現出色。因此，正如我們所提到的，House of ROHL 在第三季度有機地下降了低個位數，可能在第四季度達到類似水平。對於摩恩美國公司來說，我們看到了類似的表現，第四季度下降了低個位數，這實際上意味著我們的POS 運行率保持在中個位數或更好，而且我們從去年開始有一些有利的庫存推動因素我們討論過。

And so I think it's more -- as we have line of sight to the end of the year, just tightening that range around the performance that we're seeing out of the business.

所以我認為更多的是——因為我們預計到年底，只是收緊我們從業務中看到的業績範圍。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate all the color. I wanted to ask a little bit on the U.S. residential side. You -- I think, increased the U.S. -- the single-family new construction component of your guide. But multifamily has been looking weaker and the -- what was the increase in rates and so forth. I think the concerns exist about how things might look over the next few months.

欣賞所有的顏色。我想問一些關於美國住宅方面的問題。我認為，您在指南中增加了美國這一單戶新建建築部分。但多戶家庭看起來一直在疲軟，以及利率的成長等等。我認為人們對未來幾個月的情況有擔憂。

So I know that you have a fairly constructive view of that given the undersupplied state of the industry. Obviously, I share that view as well. But I was curious if you could talk specifically about the multifamily side, to the degree to which that may be weighing and on the overall outlook because I didn't hear you call that out. And then similar to this, in your Outdoors division, your Doors business has a lot of starts exposure, I guess.

因此，我知道鑑於該行業供應不足的狀況，您對此有相當建設性的看法。顯然，我也同意這個觀點。但我很好奇你是否能具體談談多戶家庭方面，以及這方面的影響程度和整體前景，因為我沒有聽到你這麼說。與此類似，在您的戶外部門，您的門業務有很多啟動曝光，我猜。

Your sales -- you said it was kind of as expected, the starts effect, but the sales guide came down a bunch. And so just curious if you could sort of maybe tie that in there as well.

你的銷售——你說這有點像預期的那樣，開始的效果，但銷售指南下降了很多。所以只是好奇你是否也可以將其綁在那裡。

Sure. Why don't I -- I'll start and just give you some perspectives and Dave will add some more color around it. I'll just start more on your question about the starts and multifamily. And multifamily is actually a pretty small part of our business. And so I don't disagree with you. I do think it's challenged. I think it's going to be challenged. But it's a pretty small part of our business. And then within that, the part of multifamily that we serve tends to be the higher end of multifamily.

當然。為什麼我不——我會開始給你一些觀點，戴夫會圍繞它添加更多的色彩。我將開始更多地回答您有關啟動和多戶家庭的問題。多戶住宅實際上只占我們業務的一小部分。所以我不同意你的觀點。我確實認為這是受到挑戰的。我認為這將受到挑戰。但這只是我們業務的一小部分。其中，我們服務的多戶家庭部分往往是多戶家庭的高端。

And so I think where a lot of (inaudible) is probably in places where we don't have a ton of exposure because we're more -- if you think about in multifamily for sale large concept buildings. Those are the type of things that we tend to be calling on versus -- I think we're seeing a lot of pressure in the rental market, which tends to gear more towards the price competitive stuff. So why not we pause there. Dave may have some color and then we can talk about that Doors piece.

所以我認為很多（聽不清楚）可能是在我們沒有大量曝光的地方，因為我們更多——如果你考慮在多戶待售的大型概念建築中。這些都是我們傾向於呼籲反對的事情——我認為我們在租賃市場上看到了很大的壓力，這往往更傾向於價格有競爭力的東西。那我們為什麼不暫停一下呢？戴夫可能有一些顏色，然後我們可以討論門的那件作品。

Yes. Steve, so multifamily in total is about 6%, 7% of the portfolio, so pretty small. And recall, our products go in towards the end. So our multifamily estimate for this year is actually up high single digits. And so we're not feeling much headwind in the macro this year based on when our products are consumed on multifamily.

是的。史蒂夫，多戶住宅總共約佔投資組合的 6%、7%，所以相當小。回想一下，我們的產品是在最後才進入的。因此，我們對今年多戶家庭的估計實際上是高個位數。因此，根據我們的產品在多戶家庭中的消費情況，今年我們在宏觀上並沒有感受到太大的阻力。

I'd say what's a little bit softer is probably the overall U.S. R&R, right? If we're still down 4% to 6%, they are at the midpoint of that, maybe a bit below the midpoint, and that's offsetting the single-family new construction benefit in the overall macro.

我想說，稍微軟一點的可能是美國整體的 R&R，對吧？如果我們仍然下降 4% 到 6%，那麼它們就處於中間點，可能略低於中間點，這抵消了整體宏觀中單戶新建建築的效益。

At Door's question, you're right, more single-family new construction exposure there. What's been interesting is we kind of haven't yet seen the benefit of the (inaudible) pull-through our products. So we think that's probably just got to do with when our products are installed. And that varies. I mean not the point of inflation doesn't vary, but the lag between starts and complete tends to vary. And so it's kind of an inexact science.

對於門的問題，你是對的，那裡有更多單戶新建築的曝光。有趣的是，我們還沒有看到（聽不清楚）拉動我們產品的好處。所以我們認為這可能與我們的產品安裝時間有關。這各不相同。我的意思不是通膨點不會變化，而是開始和完成之間的延遲往往會改變。所以這是一門不精確的科學。

And so we've not seen it pull-through very strongly in doors or valves, which for us is a great indicator given our exposure to large production builders. We get a great sense given the valve install is fairly early on when that's pulling through. And so we think that's probably most likely to be an end of '23 and into '24 tailwind.

因此，我們還沒有看到它在門或閥門方面的表現非常強勁，考慮到我們與大型生產製造商的接觸，這對我們來說是一個很好的指標。考慮到閥門安裝還處於相當早期的階段，我們對此有很好的感覺。因此，我們認為這很可能是 23 年結束並進入 24 年的順風車。

Yes. And Steve, just some color on that. Our Moen valve POS in the third quarter. So the component of the product that goes behind the wall into construction was still down mid-single digits. And then our doors wholesale POS, which predominantly serves new construction was down low double digits. So we're not seeing that new construction pull-through yet on this point, probably late fourth quarter, early 2024.

是的。史蒂夫，只是對此有一些看法。我們第三季的摩恩閥POS。因此，進入牆後施工的產品組件仍處於中個位數。然後，我們主要服務新建築的門業批發 POS 下降了低兩位數。因此，我們目前還沒有看到新的建設項目竣工，可能是第四季末、2024 年初。

I say the other piece on the outdoor guide is driving it down a little bit, channel inventories are still lean across that segment. And we expected really a bit more inventory to come in, in the quarter than we saw as we exited the quarter, still pretty lean, both on the decking and door side.

我說戶外指南的另一部分正在使其下降一點，該細分市場的通路庫存仍然偏少。我們預計本季的庫存量確實會比本季結束時多一些，但無論是甲板還是門側，庫存仍然相當少。

Okay. That's helpful. Yes, I appreciate that. That info in the valve is interesting because we have seen that pull-through happen in some other segments, so another product. So that's interesting that it should come soon.

好的。這很有幫助。是的，我很欣賞這一點。閥門中的信息很有趣，因為我們已經看到拉動發生在其他一些細分市場，因此是另一種產品。所以這很有趣，它應該很快就會到來。

Given that we're pretty much locked into -- I mean not for (inaudible) locked into that portion of the builders is very high. It's pretty good for us.

鑑於我們幾乎被鎖定——我的意思是，沒有（聽不清楚）被鎖定在這部分建築商中是非常高的。這對我們來說非常好。

Yes, clearly. Okay. Second question relates to just kind of generally, if you could talk about the dynamic between price cost, if there was anything sort of to call out there that we should be thinking about across your -- the various segments?

是的，很明顯。好的。第二個問題涉及一般性問題，您是否可以談談價格成本之間的動態，是否有什麼需要我們應該考慮的問題——各個細分市場？

Yes, there's nothing material to update really from where we've been in the past few quarters. So still see price as a low single-digit contributor to sales, started to see some deflation -- metals deflation in the P&L in the third quarter as we expected. But I'd say overall deflation still less than 1% of COGS given offsets to labor, some of the freight lanes have increased and then around indirect spending. And so tracking to where we thought we'd be at the beginning of the year and no material update or change.

是的，從過去幾季的情況來看，沒有什麼實質的內容需要更新。因此，仍將價格視為對銷售的低個位數貢獻，正如我們預期的那樣，第三季損益表中開始出現一些通貨緊縮——金屬通貨緊縮。但我想說，考慮到勞動力的抵消，整體通貨緊縮仍低於銷貨成本的 1%，一些貨運航線有所增加，然後是間接支出。因此，我們追蹤了年初時的預期，沒有重大更新或變更。

And I'd just add for some color. You talked about this previously, but one of our key Fortune Brands Advantage capabilities is category management. And so what are the -- these are the things that we decided to invest in to get really, really good at things like our next-generation sourcing capabilities, global supply chain, category management, complexity reduction and digital. And we're finding that having that capability, which is really data analytics driven and understanding of the shelf, the consumer and shopper behaviors, the elasticities, having that tool now has been very powerful because it's allowed us to have very constructive conversations with our trade partners and allows us to be very precise and targeted in how we manage price and therefore, continues to be a contributor while keeping us competitive in the marketplace.

我只是添加一些顏色。您之前談過這一點，但我們的財富品牌優勢的關鍵能力之一是品類管理。那麼，我們決定投資這些東西，以真正真正擅長諸如下一代採購能力、全球供應鏈、品類管理、降低複雜性和數位化等方面。我們發現，擁有這種真正由數據分析驅動的能力，以及對貨架、消費者和購物者行為、彈性的理解，現在擁有該工具非常強大，因為它使我們能夠與我們的客戶進行非常有建設性的對話。貿易夥伴，使我們能夠非常精確和有針對性地管理價格，因此，在保持市場競爭力的同時繼續做出貢獻。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

Great. Thanks very much. Good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to -- for my first question, make sure I'm getting some of the nuances of the change in guidance here. And I guess just on a basic level, it seems like the slight reduction in operating margin is predominantly driven by the slight change in sales.

偉大的。非常感謝。大家下午好。只是想——對於我的第一個問題，確保我在這裡了解了指導變化的一些細微差別。我想，從基本層面來看，營業利潤率的小幅下降似乎主要是由銷售額的小幅變動造成的。

So I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that right. It just appears like it's more just a function of the sales leverage. And when you think about from a top-down perspective, you have a couple of the segments, a slight tick-down in the sales guidance, what's really driving that from an end market perspective? And it also appears, if I'm looking at it right, that you were a little better than your outlook on 3Q and a little worse than what we were thinking about for 4Q. So if there's any type of shift between timing here or if things are a little better, things are a little worse in the last 3 months of the year. Just wanted to appreciate any of those differences as well.

所以我只是想確保我的想法是正確的。看起來它更像是銷售槓桿的函數。當你從自上而下的角度思考時，你有幾個細分市場，銷售指導略有下降，從終端市場的角度來看，真正推動這一趨勢的是什麼？而且，如果我沒看錯的話，您對第三季的展望似乎要好一些，但比我們對第四季的預期要差一些。因此，如果這裡的時間安排有任何類型的轉變，或者情況有所好轉，那麼今年最後 3 個月的情況就會變得更糟。我只是想了解這些差異。

Mike, it's Dave. I'd say your first question, that's accurate. It's really -- sales slight reduction in our sales guidance flowing through to operating margin is based on the volume leverage. So that's really coming in Outdoors. I mean if you look at the segment changes, water segment guidance overall up slightly, so from minus 2% to flat to minus 1% to flat and then security same, up slightly 13% to 15% up to 14% to 15%. So it's really Outdoors as we mentioned earlier on the call. Slightly lower R&R, POS and then some channel inventories that are leaner. So I think that's the simple way to think about the change in guidance.

麥克，這是戴夫。我想說你的第一個問題是正確的。事實上，我們的銷售指導中的銷售小幅下降會影響營業利潤率，這是基於銷售槓桿。所以這真的會出現在戶外。我的意思是，如果你看一下細分市場的變化，水務細分市場的指導總體上略有上升，從-2%到持平到-1%到持平，然後安全也一樣，小幅上漲13%到15%，最高到14%到15%。正如我們之前在電話中提到的，這確實是戶外活動。稍微降低 R&R、POS 以及一些更精簡的通路庫存。所以我認為這是考慮指導變化的簡單方法。

Third quarter, fourth quarter, there are always some timing benefits across the quarter or challenges across the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, teams are working hard to get the best results out of the fourth quarter that we can given the market environment.

第三季、第四季，總有一些跨季度的時機優勢或跨季的挑戰。正如我之前提到的，考慮到市場環境，團隊正在努力爭取第四季的最佳結果。

Right. And I appreciate that. I guess I was focusing a touch more on the organic change. I mean it brings me really to the second question, which is that you'd mentioned both acquisitions are doing better than you expected. And so I was hoping to get a sense, number one of, I know it's just one quarter, perhaps that's under your belt here. But any kind of updated thoughts about how to think about an annualized revenue run rate for these 2 businesses? I think a quarter ago, you're talking about, I believe, $240 million for Emtek, Schaub, and $170 million for Yale and August. If there's any changes to how we should think about those numbers on an annualized run rate?

正確的。我很欣賞這一點。我想我更多地關注有機變化。我的意思是，這讓我真正想到了第二個問題，即您提到的兩項收購的表現都比您預期的要好。所以我希望得到一種感覺，第一，我知道這只是四分之一，也許這就是你的能力。但是關於如何考慮這兩家企業的年化收入運行率有什麼最新的想法嗎？我想一個季度前，我相信您談論的是 Emtek、Schaub 的 2.4 億美元，以及耶魯大學和 August 的 1.7 億美元。我們應該如何考慮這些數字的年化運作率是否有任何變化？

And from -- again, from an end market perspective, if you think about those 2 different businesses, where is that upside coming from? Is it again, a certain channel or end market or if there's even any initial benefits from some of the sales synergies, which I do expect would be more in '24. But -- just any thoughts in terms of the drivers there?

再一次，從終端市場的角度來看，如果你考慮這兩種不同的業務，那麼這種優勢來自哪裡？是不是又是某個通路或終端市場，或者是否從某些銷售綜效中獲得了任何初步收益，我確實預計 24 年會更多。但是——對那裡的司機有什麼想法嗎？

I'll start with the drivers and then I'll give it to Dave who can talk you through the rest of it. But I'd say the drivers are, a, on the -- and again, 2 different Emtek and Schaub. I think they -- we, I guess, now have just built a fantastic business model and a mousetrap that really, really works for the high-end designer consumer, and that continues to take share. And so it is outperforming some market in a very healthy way. And -- but I think the real opportunity will be to take what's really working in that model and leverage it across the rest of the luxury portfolio.

我將從驅動程式開始，然後將其交給戴夫，他可以向您介紹其餘的內容。但我想說的是，驅動程式是——再說一遍，2 個不同的 Emtek 和 Schaub。我認為他們——我想我們現在剛剛建立了一個出色的商業模式和一個真正適合高端設計師消費者的捕鼠器，並且繼續佔據市場份額。因此，它以非常健康的方式跑贏了一些市場。而且 - 但我認為真正的機會將是利用該模式中真正有效的東西並將其應用於奢侈品組合的其餘部分。

And then on the Yale and August side, just a really fantastic product set that have been growing really nicely, but have been chip-constrained for a while. And as that is starting to flow now. And I think also, we're giving the team there, sort of the privilege of focus on really working on a number of things that they had on their plates that they wanted to do, but they were also working on other priorities for their predecessor organization, which they told us -- give us a privilege of focus for a while and let us get some things done next quarter or two, and we're seeing some of that come to fruition.

然後在耶魯大學和奧古斯特方面，這是一個非常出色的產品集，成長得非常好，但一段時間以來一直受到晶片的限制。現在這已經開始流動了。我還認為，我們給予那裡的團隊一種特權，讓他們能夠真正專注於他們想做的許多事情，但他們也在為他們的前任處理其他優先事項他們告訴我們，組織給了我們一段時間的專注權，讓我們在下一兩個季度完成一些事情，我們正在看到其中一些已經取得成果。

I think it's early days to say, does that change our view on the run rate? I mean we sort this since like June, but what it's allowing us to do is lean into the synergies with a lot of confidence and also invest ahead of plan on bringing some of those synergies to life.

我認為現在說這是否會改變我們對運行率的看法還為時過早？我的意思是，我們從 6 月開始就對此進行了排序，但這讓我們能夠充滿信心地利用協同效應，並提前投資以實現其中一些協同效應。

Yes. And I think Nick said it well, Mike. I mean we'll provide a more detailed view of 2024 on our next call for those businesses, but it's it is going well. It is early days, and the team is capitalizing on a lot of opportunities .

是的。我認為尼克說得很好，麥克。我的意思是，我們將在下一次對這些企業的電話會議中提供 2024 年更詳細的看法，但目前進展順利。現在還處於早期階段，團隊正在利用許多機會。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten with Salmon.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Adam Baumgarten 和 Salmon 的血統。

Just curious on some of the benefits you've been seeing from the leadership reorganization and kind of how that's playing out. And I know there's been some savings you've called out in the past year, in the first year or so, but just kind of how to think about it going forward, and then I'll stop there.

只是對您從領導層重組中看到的一些好處以及其效果如何感到好奇。我知道你在過去一年、第一年左右的時間裡節省了一些錢，但只是想知道如何繼續前進，然後我就到此為止。

Yes. That work -- and it was a lot of work, and it's still a lot of work because we're really in the first cycle of the new operating structure, right? So we just saw the first integrated annual plan (inaudible) so we can go next month, we'll see the first integrated brand plans, product plans, innovation plans.

是的。這項工作——這是大量的工作，而且仍然是大量的工作，因為我們確實處於新營運結構的第一個週期，對嗎？所以我們剛剛看到了第一個綜合年度計劃（聽不清楚），所以我們可以在下個月看到第一個綜合品牌計劃、產品計劃、創新計劃。

But in short, it is actually going ahead of schedule and better than we expected, and I said that with a lot of credit to our teams because I think it's really their -- sort of trust and enthusiasm of leaning into it that's delivering. But it was designed to unlock growth and productivity. And Dave can talk a bit to the numbers, but the economic -- the immediate cost-out benefit is a really nice byproduct of not wasting energy on things that weren't creating value and allowing the organization to spend their time on things that will.

但簡而言之，它實際上比我們預期的要提前，而且比我們預期的要好，我說這對我們的團隊有很大的功勞，因為我認為這確實是他們的信任和熱情所帶來的。但它的目的是釋放成長和生產力。戴夫可以談談數字，但經濟上——直接的成本效益是一個非常好的副產品，因為它不會把精力浪費在那些不能創造價值的事情上，並允許組織把時間花在那些能夠創造價值的事情上。 。

And so we're seeing a lot more of that. We're seeing us be able to move through initiatives a lot quicker. And a simple example, Dave and I talked about sort of Fortune Brands advantage. You have these capabilities, and we were getting much better at deploying them across the organization. But now it's not a question of is it a good idea, not a good idea (inaudible). Those leaders show you for leading our commercial organization (inaudible) Ron Wilson is leading our supply chain organization, if they want to go execute on something across the entire portfolio, they get their teams and they go execute.

所以我們看到了更多這樣的事。我們看到我們能夠更快地完成計劃。舉一個簡單的例子，戴夫和我談到了財富品牌的優勢。您擁有這些功能，我們在整個組織中部署這些功能方面做得越來越好。但現在問題不是這是個好主意，還是不是個好主意（聽不清楚）。這些領導者向您展示了領導我們的商業組織（聽不清楚）的羅恩·威爾遜（Ron Wilson）正在領導我們的供應鏈組織，如果他們想要在整個投資組合中執行某件事，他們就會讓他們的團隊去執行。

And so we're seeing a much faster execution of our key initiatives. And I think that will be the real unlock over time, and we expect to show up more than anywhere else is growth.

因此，我們看到關鍵舉措的執行速度要快得多。我認為隨著時間的推移，這將是真正的解鎖，我們預計比其他任何地方都更能體現成長。

Now you all see where are we in that? I think we've taken out kind of like the (inaudible). Now again, I caution myself using the word easy because I think our team would say, nothing was easy about it, but it's the obvious lower-hanging fruit opportunities. The next 2/3 will really come from things like simplifying our systems, being able to work more easily across the business, taking out more duplication as we have more efficient systems in place. And we see that as a multiyear growth and productivity journey for the company.

現在你們都知道我們在哪裡了嗎？我認為我們已經採取了類似的措施（聽不清楚）。現在，我再次警告自己使用「簡單」這個詞，因為我認為我們的團隊會說，沒有什麼是容易的，但這顯然是唾手可得的機會。接下來的 2/3 實際上將來自於簡化我們的系統、能夠更輕鬆地跨業務工作、消除更多重複，因為我們擁有更有效率的系統。我們認為這是公司多年的成長和生產力之旅。

And Adam, just to put some financials behind it. So as we've mentioned, that first 1/3 or so was $55 million of gross SG&A out, and we have invested some back into the business to drive some key priorities. And the teams have been busy working this year on the next phase of that organization in the future. And as we move to design it, it's going to come with process improvement, system simplification to really get more lean operating environment relative to where we've been.

亞當，只是為了提供一些財務數據。正如我們所提到的，前 1/3 左右的 SG&A 總額為 5500 萬美元，我們已將一些資金重新投入到業務中，以推動一些關鍵優先事項。今年，團隊一直忙於該組織未來下一階段的工作。當我們開始設計它時，它將伴隨著流程改進、系統簡化，以真正獲得相對於我們之前更精實的營運環境。

And I guess the other switching gears question I would have is just on the decking business, it seems like that's a pretty meaningful positive standout, you guys, your peers and competitors in terms of -- versus the broader backdrop. I guess maybe if you have any color on what's driving that? How sustainable it is? Anything you're seeing there just because the broader -- I'd say, home improvement market is kind of soft at this point.

我想我要問的另一個轉換裝置問題只是關於裝飾業務，與更廣泛的背景相比，你們、你們的同行和競爭對手，這似乎是一個非常有意義的積極突出。我想也許你對推動這一趨勢的原因有什麼看法嗎？它的可持續性如何？你在那裡看到的任何事情都只是因為更廣泛的——我想說的是，目前家居裝修市場有點疲軟。

Yes. I would start a couple of things. I mean, firstly, again, as you know really well, just the underlying value prop of composite and PVC materials continues to really be healthy and particularly when you add in all the other costs of installing a deck. And so that will take share against wood and will continue to do so for a very, very long time.

是的。我會開始做幾件事。我的意思是，首先，如您所知，複合材料和 PVC 材料的潛在價值支撐仍然非常健康，特別是當您添加安裝甲板的所有其他成本時。因此，這將佔據木材的份額，並將在很長一段時間內持續這種情況。

And in our own capacity modeling, we will play with that conversion ratio. We think it's somewhere between 1% and 2% of wood. So really hot here, it might be a 2% and a slower year, like this year, we think it might be closer to 1%, but it's still happening. And so I think that does continue to drive the top line.

在我們自己的容量建模中，我們將考慮該轉換率。我們認為它佔木材的 1% 到 2% 之間。這裡真的很熱，今年可能會成長 2%，而且會較慢，就像今年一樣，我們認為可能會接近 1%，但它仍在發生。所以我認為這確實會繼續推動營收成長。

The next piece, I think, is really important that you mentioned was sustainability, right? And we've tried to be very thoughtful and very judicious about how we go to market to do it in a sustainable way for us and all of our route-to-market partners. And so be thoughtful about pricing, be thoughtful about our product offerings and therefore, be thoughtful about the where we press the portfolio. And I think what you see in these latest results is we've been willing to give up a little bit of lower-margin business where we think it's not going to be healthy or sustainable to go focus on areas that are and more up the price spectrum. And then that's where we ended up taking share. And I think that's what through these results. We'll continue to pursue that strategy because we think that's the most sustainable way to build this business out for the long term.

我認為下一件非常重要的事情是您提到的可持續性，對吧？我們努力深思熟慮、非常明智地考慮如何進入市場，以便為我們和所有進入市場的合作夥伴以可持續的方式做到這一點。因此，要深思熟慮定價，深思熟慮我們的產品供應，因此，要深思熟慮我們推出產品組合的方向。我認為你在這些最新結果中看到的是，我們一直願意放棄一些利潤率較低的業務，我們認為專注於價格更高的領域不會是健康或可持續的。光譜。這就是我們最終分享的地方。我認為這就是這些結果的結果。我們將繼續推行這項策略，因為我們認為這是長期發展這項業務的最可持續的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Phil Ng 和 Jefferies 的對話。

And Dave, I really appreciate you giving us an early look on 2024 in terms of the market. You're calling for a low single-digit decline in 2024, but you're expecting margin expansion and earnings growth. So can you help us unpack what are the key drivers in terms of growing earnings and -- any color on ranges because The Street is certainly modeling a pretty robust earnings growth next year, so maybe well off the lows set a little bit. But I really appreciate you giving us an early look on 2024.

Dave，我非常感謝您讓我們提前了解 2024 年的市場狀況。您呼籲 2024 年出現較低的個位數下降，但預期利潤率會擴大，獲利也會成長。那麼，您能幫我們分析一下獲利成長的關鍵驅動因素嗎？範圍內的任何顏色，因為華爾街肯定會預測明年的獲利成長相當強勁，所以可能會比設定的低點稍微遠一些。但我真的很感謝您讓我們提前了解 2024 年。

Yes, happy to -- I think our confidence in margin expansion and earnings growth really stems from the work that we talked about on this call. So replatforming the business, getting after some synergy opportunities. We've mentioned some changes in the security business that we've made. And so there's a lot of, I'd say, internal activities that we see coming through the P&L next year. We have -- we will be comping that inventory reduction headwind in the first quarter. Given where production is likely going to be planned, I wouldn't expect to get all of that back because we'll still be producing at a level lower than we were in '21 and '22.

是的，很高興——我認為我們對利潤率擴張和獲利成長的信心確實源於我們在這次電話會議上討論的工作。因此，重新建構業務平台，尋求一些協同機會。我們已經提到了我們在安全業務方面所做的一些改變。因此，我想說，我們在明年的損益表中看到了很多內部活動。我們將在第一季應對庫存減少的逆風。考慮到生產可能會計劃在哪裡，我預計不會收回所有這些，因為我們的生產水平仍低於 21 年和 22 年的水平。

And then we still see price cost as a benefit. And our teams are still working through their strategic recommendations to our customers around pricing, but looking to have price contribute again positively to net sales growth next year as we really think about taking price using our category management capabilities and based on the strength of our brands and innovations in a way that both maximizes our share but also profit for us and our customers.

然後我們仍然將價格成本視為優勢。我們的團隊仍在圍繞定價向客戶提供策略建議，但希望價格能夠再次對明年的淨銷售成長做出積極貢獻，因為我們確實考慮利用我們的品類管理能力並根據我們品牌的實力來定價和創新，既能最大化我們的份額，又能為我們和我們的客戶帶來利潤。

And we've demonstrated our ability to do that over the past couple of years. So I think it's really those 3 levers. The internal actions we've taken some favorable comps on our cost bar and then some price cost favorability.

在過去的幾年裡，我們已經證明了我們有能力做到這一點。所以我認為這確實是這三個槓桿。我們的內部行動在我們的成本欄上採取了一些有利的補償，然後是一些價格成本優惠。

Is there any way to size up those buckets for us so we have a better handle? And should we assume flattish market, if you're outpacing the market and you're taking price against so maybe flat sales or you could actually -- you get some top line growth?

有什麼方法可以為我們調整這些水桶的尺寸，以便我們有更好的手把嗎？我們是否應該假設市場持平，如果你的速度超過了市場，並且你的價格與之相反，那麼銷售可能持平，或者你實際上可以——你得到一些收入增長？

Yes. I think, certainly, our teams are still working through all the details. We've seen enough to be able to give this confidence now, we'll provide more in January.

是的。我認為，當然，我們的團隊仍在研究所有細節。我們現在已經看到了足夠的東西，能夠給予這種信心，我們將在一月份提供更多。

And then yes, I think depending on where the market settles, you would expect us to beat the market and typically organically, we're targeting 150 to 200 basis points above the market. And so that would imply organic growth in that flat to down low single digits depending on how the market settles out.

然後，是的，我認為根據市場的穩定情況，您會期望我們能夠擊敗市場，並且通常有機地，我們的目標是高於市場 150 到 200 個基點。因此，這意味著有機成長將持平或下降到低個位數，具體取決於市場如何解決。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。

And with that, thank you for joining today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。