Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季完成 Twin Eagle 收購,強化整合型天然氣行銷平台,預期首年貢獻超過 2 億美元 EBITDA,兩年內隨協同效益提升至 3.5 億美元
    • 公司上修行銷商業(M&C)自由現金流目標至 7.5 億美元,並新增 10 億美元庫藏股授權,展現資本配置彈性
    • Q2 資本支出高於預期,主因積極有機租賃與部分服務通膨,預期下半年資本支出將趨緩
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Twin Eagle 併購帶來全美最大獨立天然氣行銷平台,擴大客戶基礎與市場覆蓋,提升行銷協同效益
      • 積極有機租賃與併購,持續補充高品質鑽探庫存,為未來產量成長與彈性布局
      • LNG 交易與新需求(如資料中心、工業用電)推動長期結構性需求成長
      • 營運效率提升(如 Haynesville 增強完井技術、Southwest Appalachia 經驗複製),帶動資本效率與產量穩定
    • 風險:
      • 短期天然氣價格疲弱,市場供給過剩,可能壓抑獲利與現金流
      • 資本支出受服務通膨與租賃機會波動影響,全年資本支出可能落於高標
      • Twin Eagle 協同效益與 EBITDA 貢獻具波動性,受市場波動與整合進度影響
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Twin Eagle:預期首年 EBITDA 超過 2 億美元,兩年內協同效益提升至 3.5 億美元
    • 行銷商業(M&C)自由現金流目標:上修至 7.5 億美元
    • Q4 產量指引:預期超過 7.6 Bcfe/日,全年維持 7.5 Bcfe/日彈性調整
    • Haynesville/Southwest Appalachia:持續提升鑽探效率與完井技術,單井產量提升 5-10%,二、三年衰退率改善
  4. 財務預測
    • Twin Eagle 併購預期首年 EBITDA 超過 2 億美元,兩年內協同效益提升至 3.5 億美元
    • 行銷商業(M&C)自由現金流目標上修至 7.5 億美元
    • 全年資本支出預期落於高標,Q2 租賃支出高,下半年將趨緩
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Twin Eagle 併購如何強化 Expand 的整體策略?
      A: Twin Eagle 擁有超過 1,000 個長期客戶,提供全美國家級行銷平台,完美契合我們從供給導向轉向需求拉動的整合型天然氣公司願景。
    • Q: 資本配置在庫藏股、債務與併購間如何取捨?
      A: 首重維持營運資本與持續鑽探,其次穩定配息,再來是強化資產負債表。Twin Eagle 併購金額大,但公司流動性充足,未來仍可兼顧債務管理與股東回饋。
    • Q: Q2 資本支出高於預期,全年走勢如何?
      A: Q2 租賃支出高,主因積極有機租賃與部分服務通膨。下半年 D&C 活動減少,Q4 受假期影響支出將下降,全年若持續有好機會,資本支出可能落於高標。
    • Q: Twin Eagle 的 EBITDA 預估依據?波動性如何?
      A: 2 億美元為過去幾年穩定基礎,遇市場波動時可達 1.5-2 倍。主要價值來自客戶合約與物流優化,整合後有望進一步提升。
    • Q: Haynesville 增強完井技術對產量與週期有何影響?
      A: 新技術提升單井產量 5-10%,改善二、三年衰退率,但較大規模壓裂導致週期拉長,部分井轉投產時程延後至明年。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending and welcome to the end Expand Energy Corporation second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Brittany Raiford. Ma'am, please begin.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,感謝各位出席,歡迎參加 Expand Energy Corporation 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 此刻,我想將會議交給 Brittany Raiford 女士。女士,請開始。

  • Brittany Raiford - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer

    Brittany Raiford - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Expand Energy's 2026 second quarter financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and updated investor presentation that we posted to our website yesterday.

    謝謝你,Howard。各位早安,感謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議,一同討論 Expand Energy 2026 年第二季的財務與營運成果。希望各位已經有機會閱讀我們昨天發布於官網的新聞稿以及更新後的投資人簡報。

  • During this morning's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements. Please note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings. Please recognize that except as required by law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

    在今天上午的電話會議中,我們將作出前瞻性陳述;此類陳述包含無法僅憑現有資訊加以證實的內容,包括關於我們的信念、目標、預期、預測、推估與未來表現,以及支撐該等陳述的假設。請注意,有多項因素可能導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述出現重大差異,包括我們昨日新聞稿中所辨識並討論的因素,以及其他向 SEC 提交的文件中所載因素。亦請理解,除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述之義務,且您不應對該等陳述過度依賴。

  • We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure that can be found on our website.

    我們也可能提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標,以協助促進跨期間及與同業之間的比較。對於我們使用的任何非 GAAP 指標,與最接近之對應 GAAP 指標的調節表可於我們的網站上查閱。

  • With me on the call today are Mike Wichterich, Josh Viets, Marcel Teunissen, and Dan Turco. Mike will give a brief overview of our results and then we will open up the line for Q&A. So with that, thank you again. I'll now turn over the conference to Mike.

    今天與我一同參與電話會議的有 Mike Wichterich、Josh Viets、Marcel Teunissen 以及 Dan Turco。Mike 將先簡要概述我們的業績,接著我們將開放問答。因此,再次感謝各位。我現在把會議交給 Mike。

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Brittany. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. It's now been 6 months since taking the role of interim CEO. And I told you last quarter that I couldn't be more optimistic about the future of Expand. Today's quarterly results are a testament to why I was optimistic then and why my optimism today continues to grow. Let's talk about why.

    謝謝你,Brittany。各位早安,感謝各位加入我們的電話會議。我擔任臨時執行長一職至今已滿 6 個月。我在上一季告訴各位,我對 Expand 的未來再樂觀不過。今天的季度成果證明了我當時為何樂觀,也說明了為何我今天的樂觀情緒持續升高。讓我們談談原因。

  • First, the Expand team has earned a well-deserved reputation for operational excellence and execution. This quarter was no exception. Our Southwest App team had a particularly good quarter the team has consistently delivered tremendous operating results conducted with a safety-first mindset. Our employee and contractor safety is job number one.

    第一,Expand 團隊在卓越營運與執行方面已建立起實至名歸的口碑。本季亦不例外。我們的 Southwest App 團隊本季表現尤其出色;該團隊一貫以「安全第一」的思維運作,持續交出亮眼的營運成果。員工與承包商的安全是我們的首要任務。

  • Second, we embrace that to be a great company we need to be a disciplined allocator of capital. This year has been a clear reflection of that commitment. In the first quarter, our free cash flow surged as a result of high natural gas prices.

    第二,我們深信要成為一家卓越的公司,就必須嚴謹自律地進行資本配置。今年清楚反映了我們對此承諾的落實。第一季在天然氣價格高漲的帶動下,我們的自由現金流大幅攀升。

  • We were able to capture this volatility and prudently chose to pay down $1.3 billion in gross debt. This was intentionally done to put us in a position to capitalize on times when commodity prices are soft. Pop month natural gas prices dipped after the first quarter, and we were prepared to act decisively when our stock price dislocated from our mid-cycle price view of $3.50 to $4.

    我們得以掌握這波波動,並審慎選擇償還 13 億美元的總負債。此舉是刻意為之,旨在讓我們在商品價格走弱時仍能把握機會。第一季後,Pop month 天然氣價格下滑;當我們的股價偏離我們對中周期價格每股 3.50 至 4 美元的看法時,我們已準備好果斷行動。

  • As our peer companies focused on paying off low interest debt, we repurchased $850 million. or 4% of our outstanding shares. This is a great example of how we allocate capital to generate superior returns through the cycle. Our Board also sees the value of this type of thinking has authorized an additional $1 billion for future buybacks so that we can continue to act decisively when market conditions dictate.

    當同業公司著重於償還低利率債務之際,我們回購了 8.5 億美元,約占已發行在外股份的 4%。這是我們如何在景氣循環中透過資本配置創造優異報酬的絕佳例證。我們的董事會也看見此類思維的價值,已額外核准 10 億美元用於未來回購,使我們能在市場條件需要時持續果斷出手。

  • Third, we believe an upstream company must replace and build its drilling inventory to be successful over the long term. Organic leasing, when done well, is the most accretive and effective way to extend inventory. This year, we have been active in each of our operating areas, adding high-quality locations that are either accretive to our near-term drilling plans or give us the ability to grow production when natural gas prices rise.

    第三,我們認為,上游公司若要在長期取得成功,必須補充並擴充其鑽井庫存。若執行得當,有機租賃是延長庫存最具增值性且最有效的方法。今年,我們在各營運區域皆積極布局,新增高品質井位,這些井位要麼能為我們的短期鑽井計畫帶來增值,要麼能在天然氣價格上升時賦予我們擴大產量的能力。

  • We also believe in inorganic transactions. However, I will remind you, our bar is high. Any transaction must do more than add scale. It must create long-term strategic value and position the company to become something stronger and more impactful over time. These opportunities are rare and must meet our non-negotiables.

    我們也相信無機交易的重要性。不過,我要提醒各位,我們的門檻很高。任何交易都必須不僅僅是增加規模。它必須創造長期策略價值,並使公司隨時間推移成為更強大、更具影響力的存在。這類機會相當罕見,且必須符合我們不可妥協的條件。

  • Fourth, we are positioned to expand for the long term as North American's leading integrated natural gas company. In February, I mentioned on our earnings call that we had a renewed focus on our marketing commercial efforts. We laid out a 3-part framework: one, facilitating and capturing new demand; two, reaching premium markets; and three, monetizing volatility.

    第四,作為北美領先的整合型天然氣公司,我們已為長期擴張做好布局。2 月時,我在我們的財報電話會議上提到,我們重新聚焦於行銷與商務拓展工作。我們提出三大架構:第一,促成並掌握新增需求;第二,觸及溢價市場;第三,將波動變現。

  • In the first quarter, we announced the LNG transaction with Delfin, extending our reach globally and advancing our goals on both capturing new demand and reaching premium markets. The team is hard at work on additional transactions. We look forward to sharing details as they're finalized.

    第一季,我們宣布與 Delfin 的 LNG 交易,將觸角延伸至全球,同時推進我們在「掌握新增需求」與「觸及溢價市場」兩方面的目標。團隊正全力推動更多交易。待細節定案後,我們期待與各位分享。

  • On Monday, we announced the purchase of Twin Eagle, which immediately accelerates our marketing commercial strategy and puts us in the driver seat to reach premium markets and monetize volatility. Before I talk how Twin Eagle is a game changer for expand, I would like to welcome the Twin Eagle employees to the Expand team. Jeremy Davis, CEO of Twin Eagle and his team have built an incredible business and brand over the past 15 years plus.

    週一,我們宣布收購 Twin Eagle,這將立即加速我們的行銷與商務策略,並讓我們坐上駕駛座,以觸及溢價市場並將波動變現。在我談 Twin Eagle 如何成為 Expand 的遊戲規則改變者之前,我想先歡迎 Twin Eagle 的員工加入 Expand 團隊。Twin Eagle 的執行長 Jeremy Davis 與其團隊在過去 15 年以上打造出令人驚豔的事業與品牌。

  • We believe this acquisition is a transformational opportunity to unite expands industry-leading diverse supply and financial strength with Twin Eagle's premier physical marketing platform, creating leading integrated natural gas company. We will soon be the undisputed largest independent natural gas producer and leading gas marketer, scaling our business from a regional player to a coast-to-coast heavyweight across the United States and Canada, reaching customers that none of our domestic peers can touch.

    我們相信,這項收購是一個具變革性的機會,能把 Expand 在業界領先的多元供應能力與財務實力,與 Twin Eagle 頂尖的實體行銷平台結合,打造領先的整合型天然氣公司。我們很快將成為無可爭議的最大獨立天然氣生產商與領先的天然氣行銷商,將業務從區域型玩家擴大為橫跨美國與加拿大、從東岸到西岸的重量級企業,觸及國內同業無法企及的客戶。

  • Rather than relying on directional commodity price exposure, Twin Eagle's business is built around linking customers to physical supply by using transportation and storage assets to create value. The model is unique, repeatable and scalable. It is an origination and optimization company, benefiting from customer relationships with an average retention rate of 90%. This provides Twin Eagle with lower earnings volatility on their base business, while preserving the upside during supply disruption events.

    Twin Eagle 的業務並非仰賴商品價格單向曝險,而是以連結客戶與實體供應為核心,透過運輸與儲存資產創造價值。此模式獨特、可複製且可擴展。它是一家以開發來源與最佳化為主的公司,受惠於客戶關係,平均留存率達 90%。這使 Twin Eagle 的基礎業務獲利波動較低,同時在供應中斷事件發生時仍能保留上行空間。

  • Simply put, this repeatability, which starts with deep customer relationships is why they have been profitable every year since inception. Together, we are strategically positioned to benefit from a new era of demand pulled from power, industrial and LNG consumers across North America. We will more effectively monetize regional volatility and reach high-value markets, providing us with a unique value creation opportunity that will differentiate us from our peers.

    簡而言之,這種可重複性始於深厚的客戶關係,正是他們自創立以來每年都能獲利的原因。我們將共同在策略上站穩有利位置,受惠於北美電力、工業與 LNG 消費者所帶動的新一波需求時代。我們將更有效地將區域性波動變現並觸及高價值市場,為我們帶來獨特的價值創造機會,並使我們有別於同業。

  • We expect Twin Eagle will contribute more than $200 million of EBITDA in year one and grow to $350 million per year as we capture synergies over the next two years. Important to note our estimates assume normal market conditions and do not reflect the potential upside associated with periods of elevated volatility.

    我們預期 Twin Eagle 在第一年將貢獻超過 2 億美元的 EBITDA,並在未來兩年我們捕捉協同效益後,成長至每年 3.5 億美元。重要的是要注意,我們的估算假設市場狀況正常,且未反映在波動性升高期間可能帶來的潛在上行空間。

  • With our confidence in this deal, we are raising our incremental marketing commercial free cash flow target to $750 million. We look forward to working with Jeremy and the entire Twin Eagle team to maximize the value of every molecule.

    基於我們對這筆交易的信心,我們將增量行銷與商業(M&C)自由現金流目標上調至 7.5 億美元。我們期待與 Jeremy 以及整個 Twin Eagle 團隊合作,將每一個分子的價值最大化。

  • Finally, before taking your questions, a quick update on the CEO search. We originally said that we expect the process to take 6 to 9 months. We're at the 6-month mark, and we will meet our goal. With that said, in the last earnings call, we told you that Expand team would not stop focusing on creating long-term value for our shareholders during the CEO transition I hope today, you will see that we were serious.

    最後,在回答各位提問之前,先快速更新一下 CEO 遴選進度。我們先前表示,預期整個流程需要 6 到 9 個月。目前已到第 6 個月,我們將達成目標。話雖如此,在上一季的財報電話會議中,我們告訴各位 Expand 團隊在 CEO 交接期間不會停止專注於為股東創造長期價值——我希望今天各位能看到,我們是認真的。

  • If there is one thing I have learned about the expand team, it's that it plays to win. We attack our business with urgency, maintain our disciplined approach to value creation and keep our promises. I could not be more impressed with the enthusiasm and professionalism of this team nor optimistic for the company's future. With that, we welcome your questions. Operator, please open the line.

    如果說我從 Expand 團隊身上學到一件事,那就是:他們為勝利而戰。我們以緊迫感推進業務,維持嚴謹的價值創造方法,並信守承諾。我對這個團隊的熱忱與專業印象深刻,也對公司的未來更加樂觀。接下來,我們歡迎各位提問。接線員,請開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

    (接線員指示) JPMorgan 的 Arun Jayaram。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Good morning, Mike and team. Mike, I wanted to get your thoughts on how you think the Twin Eagle acquisition aligns with Expand's overall strategy?

    早安,Mike 以及團隊各位。Mike,我想請教你對 Twin Eagle 併購案如何與 Expand 的整體策略相契合的看法?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I think -- thank you for the question, Arun. Overall, we said in our first my first call here in February that we're going to focus on our M&C business. And that focus has turned into integrated gas company, and that is the bigger vision on how to go customer back because we think this is a demand pull future as opposed to the supply future.

    我想——謝謝你的問題,Arun。整體而言,我們在 2 月我第一次在這裡的電話會議中就說過,我們將聚焦於我們的 M&C 業務。而這個聚焦已轉化為「整合型天然氣公司」的方向;這是更宏觀的願景,亦即如何從客戶端往回推進,因為我們認為未來是需求拉動,而不是供給驅動。

  • So if you think that's the number one goal is the gig customers, Twin Eagle has that. It has over 1,000 customers, that business is based on those relationships -- they've had them for 8 years, and so we know it's repeatable. So if you think about integrated gas supply, we believe having a national footprint, 1,000 customers, Twin Eagle is a perfect fit for us.

    所以如果你認為第一大目標是大型客戶,Twin Eagle 具備這一點。它擁有超過 1,000 家客戶,業務建立在這些關係之上——他們已維繫 8 年,因此我們知道這是可複製、可持續的。因此,若從整合型天然氣供應來看,我們相信擁有全國性布局、1,000 家客戶的 Twin Eagle,對我們而言是完美契合。

  • Arun Jayaram - Analyst

    Arun Jayaram - Analyst

  • Great. And just my follow-up, Mike, just in terms of the broader landscape, one of your peers in the Appalachia Basin, which also has an integrated model, similar scale has been able to ink several natural gas supply deals with utilities, power projects for data centers, et cetera. I want to get your thoughts on whether you view the Twin Eagle acquisition with your expanded transportation portfolio, customer intimacy, do you view this as an enabler to get supply deals for expand called over the line?

    很好。接著追問一下,Mike,就更廣泛的產業格局而言,你在阿帕拉契亞盆地的一家同業(同樣採整合模式、規模相近)已能與公用事業、資料中心的電力專案等簽下多筆天然氣供應合約。我想請教你是否認為,透過 Twin Eagle 的併購,加上你們擴大的運輸資產組合與更貼近客戶的能力,這會成為促成 Expand 取得供應合約、把交易「推過終點線」的助力?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I absolutely do think that. Of course, we have a large position in Appalachia. We will absolutely look for deals there as well. But Twin Eagle gives us -- it gives us the whole United States as our program their utilities all over the country, near population centers who are building data centers.

    我絕對這麼認為。當然,我們在阿帕拉契亞也有很大的部位。我們也一定會在那裡尋找交易機會。但 Twin Eagle 讓我們——它讓我們的版圖涵蓋全美;他們的公用事業客戶遍布全國各地,且靠近正在興建資料中心的人口聚集區。

  • We don't think data centers will only be in the East. We think they'll be all over. Twin Eagle already has long relationships with utility companies. They will ultimately be the big winner here, in my opinion. And so the footprint is what will make us special.

    我們不認為資料中心只會在東部。我們認為它們會遍布各地。Twin Eagle 已經與公用事業公司建立長期關係。依我看,他們最終會是這裡的大贏家。因此,這個版圖將使我們與眾不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Josh Silverstein, UBS.

    UBS 的 Josh Silverstein。

  • Josh Silverstein - Analyst

    Josh Silverstein - Analyst

  • Just a question on capital allocation between the balance sheet and shareholder returns. You clearly bought back a significant amount of stock and just authorized another $1 billion buyback. But now you're buying 20 with the balance sheet and cash on hand. So how do you flex between the two going forward?

    我想問關於資本配置:在資產負債表與股東回報之間如何取捨。你們顯然回購了相當多的股票,且剛剛又核准了額外 10 億美元的回購。但現在你們又用資產負債表與手上現金去買 Twin Eagle。那麼未來你們要如何在兩者之間彈性調整?

  • Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

    Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

  • Marcel here. Taking your question there. So when you think of the overall capital allocation framework, right, our number one priority is to reinvest in our ongoing business, keep that engine going. So that's our D&C capital.

    我是 Marcel。我來回答你的問題。當你思考整體資本配置框架時,我們的第一優先順序是再投資於既有業務,讓引擎持續運轉。也就是我們的 D&C 資本支出。

  • Our second priority is dividends. We have a good and healthy dividend. So we continue to pay that.

    第二優先順序是股利。我們有良好且健康的股利水準。因此我們會持續發放。

  • The third priority is our balance sheet, and we've made great strides in that in Q1, and that kind of allowed us to have some flexibility as we went into the second quarter, as Mike talked about. And then the remaining cash flow allocated to the highest kind of returning kind of opportunity that we have and that could include buying back our own stock that is competing with other opportunities that we have.

    第三優先順序是資產負債表;我們在第一季在這方面取得很大進展,這也讓我們在進入第二季時具備一些彈性,正如 Mike 所提到的。接著,剩餘的現金流會配置到我們所擁有、回報最高的機會上,其中也可能包括回購自家股票——這會與我們其他機會相互競爭。

  • Specifically to the money spent on Twin Eagle, it is a big amount. But for our company, we can absorb this within the facilities we have. We have ample liquidity -- so I expect that over the next quarter, we can do both balance sheet and looking at other opportunities to that return -- that make good returns for shareholders as well.

    就 Twin Eagle 的支出而言,金額確實很大。但以我們公司規模來說,我們可以在現有的融資額度內消化。我們有充足的流動性——因此我預期在接下來一季,我們可以同時兼顧資產負債表,以及尋找其他能帶來回報、同樣能為股東創造良好報酬的機會。

  • Josh Silverstein - Analyst

    Josh Silverstein - Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe sticking on the cash flow statement, the CapEx trajectory was -- obviously, you've been elevated this quarter, the 3Q guide was higher versus expectations. Can you just talk about the trajectory of this maybe into what's implied for the fourth quarter? And how much of it was service inflation versus just a good opportunity to step up the leasing efforts because it looks like you added a lot in the Haynesville and Appalachia.

    了解。那再沿著現金流量表問一下:本季資本支出(CapEx)走勢——顯然偏高,而第三季指引也高於市場預期。你能談談這個走勢,或第四季隱含的水準嗎?其中有多少是服務成本通膨,多少只是因為有很好的機會而加大租賃(lease)取得力度?因為看起來你們在 Haynesville 與阿帕拉契亞增加了不少。

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • We would expect that the capital will tail off as we go through the second half of the year. The first thing I would just note is that we do have a little bit less D&C activity in the second half of the year, primarily across our Appalachia business.

    我們預期資本支出會在下半年逐步回落。我首先要指出的是,下半年我們的 D&C 活動會稍微減少,主要是在阿帕拉契亞業務。

  • On the second quarter specifically, we continue to find great opportunities to go out and add organic leases. This is, of course, we're able to leverage our operational and subsurface expertise identify opportunities to get in early at a lower cost, which simply preserves our ability to generate premium returns off of that acreage in the long run. In addition, we like the acreage that we're getting because it's also providing real growth optionality for us.

    就第二季而言,我們持續發現很好的機會去增加有機租賃。當然,我們能運用營運與地下地質(subsurface)專業來辨識機會,及早以較低成本進場,這能在長期維持我們在該土地資產上創造優異回報的能力。此外,我們也喜歡所取得的土地,因為它同時為我們提供了實質的成長選擇權。

  • As a company, as we are looking at a pretty significant demand growth as we exit the decade, there has been an element of realized inflation in the second quarter. And so just depending on where we see crude prices go, that will impact what we pay for fuel. That's all accounted for within our full year guide.

    以公司整體來看,當我們展望在本十年末期退出時相當顯著的需求成長,第二季確實出現了一些已實現的通膨。因此,取決於我們看到原油價格走勢如何,將影響我們支付的燃料成本。這些都已納入我們全年指引之中。

  • The fourth quarter as a whole, also, I would just note that you do tend to see leasing activity ramp down in the fourth quarter. And that's really just -- you just simply lose working days with the holidays. And so, that does tend to lend itself to a lower overall spend.

    至於第四季整體,我也要指出,第四季通常會看到租賃活動降溫。這主要是——假期會讓可工作天數減少。因此,這往往會使整體支出較低。

  • But I would just note that we want to continue to be opportunistic financially, we're strong enough to be active out acquiring organic leases. We think it's a fantastic investment for the company. And if we continue to find these new opportunities, that would end up pushing us towards the higher end of our capital range for the full year.

    但我只想補充一點,我們希望在財務上持續保持機會主義;我們的實力足以積極對外收購有機租約。我們認為這對公司而言是一項極佳的投資。而如果我們持續找到這些新機會,最終可能會把我們推向全年資本區間的較高端。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

    Charles Meade,Johnson Rice。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • I want to ask another question on Twin Eagle, maybe there's two parts to this. Can you describe for us the -- what relationships you may have had with Twin Eagle in the past? Like, for example, whether they were marketing some of your volumes or if there's any history between expand in Twin Eagle.

    我想再問一個關於 Twin Eagle 的問題,可能分成兩個部分。你能否為我們說明一下——你們過去與 Twin Eagle 可能有哪些合作關係?例如,他們是否曾經行銷你們的一些銷量,或是 Expand 與 Twin Eagle 之間是否有任何歷史淵源。

  • And also, when you look at the assets you acquired, of course, the people are a big part of it, but one of the biggest tangible pieces, it seems to me is this of storage. And I wonder if you could talk about how you value that, whether it was evaluated separately or whether that's just it's the -- it was just part of the whole in the overall evaluation.

    另外,當你看你們收購的資產時,當然人員是很重要的一部分,但我看來其中最大的有形資產之一似乎是儲存(storage)。我想請你談談你們如何為其估值:它是否被單獨評估,或是——它只是整體評估中的一部分。

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Thank you, Charles, for the question. Of course, Twin Eagle has actually been around a long time. I mean, this is the original Dynegy team that's spun out. And they've been doing this exact business for 30 years. The Twin Eagle team today, of course, is 15% in the latest iteration. Fun at one point in time, Chesapeake was one of the equity owners of Twin Eagle which got sold in the past. So we've had a long relationship with them just in general.

    當然。謝謝你,Charles,提出這個問題。Twin Eagle 當然其實已經存在很久了。我的意思是,這是最初從 Dynegy 分拆出來的團隊。他們做這門一模一樣的業務已經 30 年了。當然,今天的 Twin Eagle 團隊在最新一輪架構中持股 15%。有趣的是,在某個時點,Chesapeake 曾是 Twin Eagle 的股權持有人之一,後來已在過去出售。所以我們與他們整體而言一直有很長的關係。

  • We don't sell a lot of gas to them. Historically, so there's not a lot of overlap. They focus a little bit more downstream from where most of our sales have been. And so -- which is what we like. We want to extend our reach and they provide that reach. So known them for a long time. We have a perfect culture fit in that, of course, they're here in our spring complex. They're actually in our complex. And so they'll be moving to our building ultimately, but same type of people that kids go to the same schools that our employees go to. And so it's a great cultural fit as well.

    我們並沒有賣很多天然氣給他們。歷史上,因此重疊不多。他們的重心比我們大部分銷售所在的位置更偏下游一些。所以——這正是我們喜歡的。我們希望延伸我們的觸及範圍,而他們提供了這個觸及範圍。所以認識他們很久了。在文化上也非常契合,因為他們就在我們的 Spring 園區。他們其實就在我們的園區裡。因此他們最終會搬到我們的大樓,但都是同一類型的人,孩子上的是和我們員工孩子相同的學校。所以文化契合度也很高。

  • Storage specifically, we thought about storage is how do they achieve their returns, not specifically the storage assets themselves, how that translates into earnings and their ability to have repeat earnings. And that's the same way we looked at their FT and the AMA. It's like what do they do with it more than exactly that specific asset.

    就儲存而言,我們思考儲存的方式是:他們如何達成其報酬,而不是只看儲存資產本身;也就是它如何轉化為獲利,以及他們創造可重複獲利的能力。我們看他們的 FT 和 AMA 也是同樣的方式。重點更在於他們如何運用它,而不完全是那個特定資產本身。

  • Charles Meade - Analyst

    Charles Meade - Analyst

  • That is great detail. And then my follow-up is perhaps for Josh, the 33,000 acres that you guys picked up I think it was in Sabine in Natus Paris in Louisiana and the Natal zone. Can you talk about what you're seeing differently or what you're doing differently that now makes that acreage perspective for you where presumably, since it was sitting there on lease and open, it wasn't prospective for you or other Haynesville players so far.

    這些細節很棒。那我的追問可能是給 Josh:你們拿下的 33,000 英畝,我記得是在路易斯安那州 Sabine 的 Natus Parish 以及 Natal 區帶。你能談談你們現在看到哪些不同、或你們做了哪些不同的事,使得這塊面積對你們而言變得有前景?因為照理說,既然它之前一直以租約形式擺在那裡、也對外開放,迄今為止對你們或其他 Haynesville 業者似乎都不具前景。

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Charles, thanks for the question. I think this really just comes down to if you think about the Southwestern merger us being in a position to deliver a tremendous amount of synergies through this continued operational excellence. I think we continue to establish ourselves in the Haynesville as the best operator in these deep, high-pressure gas wells. And that's exactly what we find in this what we refer to as the NFZ extension.

    Charles,謝謝你的問題。我認為這真的回到一點:如果你想到 Southwestern 的合併,我們處於一個能透過持續的營運卓越交付大量綜效的位置。我認為我們持續在 Haynesville 建立自己作為這些深層、高壓氣井最佳營運商的地位。而這正是我們在這個我們稱為 NFZ 延伸區所看到的。

  • We are stepping down deeper into the Haynesville and Bossier, you end up moving down another 2,000 feet and true vertical depth. But we are made to go operate and develop these deep, complex, high-pressure reservoirs.

    我們正往 Haynesville 和 Bossier 更深處推進,你會在真垂直深度上再往下約 2,000 英尺。但我們就是為了營運與開發這些深層、複雜、高壓的儲層而打造的。

  • We also just have a ton of subsurface information that we've built up over the last 1.5 decades of operating in the basin. And so that just puts us in a technical and operational advantage to get into these plays early before others are fully valued in it and go in, in this case, acquiring over 100 locations at less than $0.5 million location.

    此外,我們在過去 15 年於該盆地營運累積了大量的地下地質資訊。因此,這讓我們在技術與營運上具備優勢,能在其他人尚未完全評價這些區塊之前就提早進入;而在這個案例中,我們以每個井位不到 50 萬美元的成本取得了超過 100 個井位。

  • And so we feel really great about this position that we're building. Our goal is to always look at rock in a way that maybe today, it looks like Tier 2 and we're going to go make it Tier 1, and we see that same type of upside with this opportunity here.

    因此我們對正在建立的這個部位感到非常好。我們的目標一向是用一種方式去看岩性:也許今天看起來像是第二級(Tier 2),但我們要把它做成第一級(Tier 1);而我們也在這個機會上看到同樣類型的上行空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Portillo, TPH.

    Matthew Portillo,TPH。

  • Matthew Portillo - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Portillo - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning, all. I just wanted to start out on the Gulf Coast, specifically hearing more from the industry around Southeast demand from utilities and the interplay between that demand pull and the start-up of LNG facilities that's really starting to create an interesting dynamic. So I'm curious if you might be able to comment on how you all are seeing the marketing opportunities that evolve as it relates to utilities? Does this potentially down the road between utilities and LNG create a premium market strategy for you all in terms of pricing or the ability to lay off FT? Just hoping you could give us an update on how the market is evolving around the Haynesville, given that you are the largest producer.

    各位早安。我想先從墨西哥灣沿岸談起,特別是我聽到業界更多在談東南部公用事業的需求,以及這股需求拉動與 LNG 設施啟動之間的互動,確實開始形成一個很有意思的動態。所以我想請教,你們如何看待與公用事業相關、正在演變的行銷機會?從長遠來看,公用事業與 LNG 之間的這種情勢,是否可能為你們帶來溢價市場策略——例如在定價上,或在轉讓/釋出 FT 能力方面?希望你們能更新一下:鑑於你們是最大的生產商,Haynesville 周邊市場正在如何演變。

  • Daniel Turco - Executive Vice President, Marketing & Commercial

    Daniel Turco - Executive Vice President, Marketing & Commercial

  • Matt, this is Dan. We remain very constructive around demand. We put a page together. I believe it's on page 15 of our deck, looking at demand. And this is really a historic wave of structural demand that's coming at us as you hit many aspects there, power industrial LNG.

    Matt,我是 Dan。我們對需求仍然非常正面。我們整理了一頁內容。我相信在我們簡報的第 15 頁,是在看需求。而這確實是一波歷史性的結構性需求浪潮正向我們襲來,正如你提到的多個面向:電力、工業、LNG。

  • On the power side, we tend to be more conservative than others, but still significant demand and really electrification is growing. Data centers is a big story, but there's also microgrid solutions and just balancing of markets. This is evidenced in the last few weeks, we've seen record demand prints for the US. We hit an all-time high a couple of weeks ago about 101 terawatts. So this is growing and real.

    在電力端,我們通常比其他人更保守,但需求仍然可觀,而且電氣化確實在成長。資料中心是一個重要故事,但也有微電網解決方案,以及市場平衡的需求。這在過去幾週已有所體現:我們看到美國的需求數據創下紀錄。幾週前我們達到歷史新高,大約 101 太瓦。所以這是在成長,而且是真實的。

  • Again, we are tied on the conservative side. Industrial, same thing. This is an often part of the market that's missed, and it's really in our backyard down in the Haynesville area, the amount of expansions happening at manufacturing sites and then we're under some confidential conversations with new sites being contemplated for the back half of the decade. So we're excited about that.

    再次強調,我們的假設偏保守。工業端也是一樣。這常常是市場上被忽略的一部分,而它其實就在我們的後院——Haynesville 一帶,製造業據點正在進行大量擴建;此外,我們也在一些保密的對話中,討論在本十年後半期可能規劃的新據點。所以我們對此感到興奮。

  • And then LNG, this is real and it's real structural. We actually updated our demand. So we're a bit more bullish on LNG. We've seen some accelerated projects happen. We've seen more FIDs taking place. So really, the confluence of all these demands coming together right in our backyard in Haynesville and Appalachia really sets up nice for our business.

    再來是 LNG,這是真實的,而且是結構性的。我們其實更新了我們的需求預估。因此我們對 LNG 的看法更偏多。我們看到一些專案加速推進。我們看到更多 FID(最終投資決策)正在發生。所以,所有這些需求在我們的後院——Haynesville 與 Appalachia——匯聚,確實為我們的業務帶來很好的布局。

  • And again, Mike said it earlier, this is a demand pull. So we have a lot of customers coming to see us being able to offer them different products, structural products, long-term products. That's something the expand footprint allows. And then adding Twin Eagle just makes us even integrated and more strong and enhanced. Having that coast-to-coast footprint and being able to offer different types of products is going to be real beneficial for us as a differentiator.

    再說一次,Mike 先前也提到,這是需求拉動。因此有很多客戶來找我們,希望我們能提供不同的產品、結構性產品、長期產品。這正是擴大版圖所帶來的能力。而再加上 Twin Eagle,只會讓我們整合度更高、更強、更有韌性並進一步提升。擁有橫跨全美的佈局,並能提供不同類型的產品,將會成為我們作為差異化優勢的真正利多。

  • Matthew Portillo - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Portillo - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And then the second question, just on broader capital allocation trends. Obviously, the 2027 strip has come under pressure and maybe some of the smaller privates and smaller publics have been a bit more growth focused in the near term. Just curious, given how large your footprint is across the US being the largest gas producer kind of across the US and as you guys think about capital allocation, if the market does require growth from Expand down the road, is it still fair to think about with the slide you guys lay out on slide 6. I probably need to see something in the $3.75 to $4 mid-cycle case for growth to return from a larger producer like yourself?

    很好。第二個問題,關於更廣泛的資本配置趨勢。顯然,2027 年的 strip 價格已承受壓力,而且一些較小的私營公司與小型上市公司在短期內可能更偏向成長導向。我想請教的是,鑑於你們在全美的版圖如此龐大、作為全美最大的天然氣生產商之一,當你們思考資本配置時,如果市場未來確實要求 Expand 提供成長,是否仍可依你們在第 6 頁投影片所呈現的框架來思考?對於像你們這樣的大型生產商,要讓成長回來,我可能需要看到中週期情境在每 MMBtu 約 3.75 到 4 美元左右?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes. The view on mid-cycle price is absolutely driving how we think about capital allocation back into our business. We think that $3.50 to $4 range still fits. We think that's the prices that will be required to balance the market ultimately. And so as we think about heading in towards the end of the decade where you start to see larger demand growth, Dan just referenced, specifically the LNG, power and industrial demand growth that we see.

    是的。對中週期價格的看法,絕對是驅動我們如何思考把資本再投入本業的關鍵。我們認為 3.50 到 4 美元的區間仍然適用。我們認為,最終要讓市場達到平衡,將需要這樣的價格水準。因此,當我們展望接近本十年末、開始看到更大的需求成長時,Dan 剛才也提到,特別是我們看到的 LNG、電力與工業需求成長。

  • And so if we start to adjust up that view on mid-cycle price, this business is positioned to grow. And it's not just in the depth of our inventory, but it's also the access to infrastructure that the company maintains specifically across the Haynesville asset. We've talked about the NFC extension earlier. That's adding locations that creates a real growth option with unconstrained infrastructure. We have our East Texas position that we're building.

    因此,如果我們開始上調對中週期價格的看法,這個業務具備成長的條件。這不僅在於我們庫存的深度,也在於公司所掌握的基礎設施可及性,特別是在 Haynesville 資產上。我們先前談到 NFC 延伸。那會新增井位,並在不受限的基礎設施下創造真正的成長選擇權。我們也正在打造我們在東德州的佈局。

  • We are well positioned, especially where we sit on the cost curve to be out in front. And it's -- again, the supply-demand fundamentals support it. We are in a position to go grow.

    我們的定位非常好,尤其是以我們在成本曲線上的位置來看,能夠走在前面。而且——再說一次——供需基本面也支持這一點。我們具備推動成長的條件。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

    Doug Leggate,Wolfe Research。

  • Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

    Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst

  • Guys, I've got two questions, if I may. I'm looking at, I think it's -- I'm looking at slide number 7, which is the drilling efficiency, the improvement, obviously pretty impressive. But my question is, at some point, should we expect the improved capital efficiency, if you like, to translate to a lower CapEx number because it seems that you're doing you've got the capacity to do more with less, if you like, given that you haven't changed your production guidance. That's my first.

    各位,我有兩個問題,如果可以的話。我在看——我想是——第 7 頁投影片,鑽井效率的提升,顯然相當令人印象深刻。但我的問題是,在某個時間點,我們是否應該預期資本效率的提升(如果你們願意這麼說)會反映為更低的資本支出(CapEx)數字?因為看起來在你們沒有改變產量指引的情況下,你們有能力用更少的投入做更多的事。這是第一個問題。

  • My second one is a follow-up, if you don't mind, on Twin Eagle. The $200 million, obviously, and the synergies, you guys have got a track record forgive me for this, have been somewhat conservative on your synergies. So I'm curious how you would frame the risk of delivering the $250 million -- and I'm excluding the extra $100 million because you already had 500 million in your own numbers. And I guess my point is where -- what's the trajectory and what's the impact on your breakeven?

    第二個是追問 Twin Eagle,如果你不介意。那 2 億美元,顯然,還有協同效益;你們過去的紀錄——請原諒我這麼說——在協同效益上一直偏保守。所以我想知道,你們會如何界定實現 2.5 億美元協同效益的風險——我先排除額外的 1 億美元,因為你們原本自己的數字裡就有 5 億美元。我的意思是:路徑是什麼?對你們的損益兩平點(breakeven)有什麼影響?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • This is Josh. I'll take the first part of your question. And I think really what you're getting at is is there an expectation that our maintenance CapEx adjust, given some of the deficiencies that we're seeing. I think at a corporate level, we still see our maintenance CapEx kind of ex growth leasehold and growth D&C spend in the East Texas position, still sitting around that 2.8 level.

    我是 Josh。我先回答你問題的第一部分。我想你真正想問的是:鑑於我們看到的一些效率提升,是否預期我們的維持性資本支出(maintenance CapEx)會調整。我認為在公司層面,我們仍然看到維持性 CapEx——大致上不含成長型租賃持有成本(leasehold)以及東德州佈局的成長型鑽完井(D&C)支出——仍在約 28 億美元左右。

  • There has been some headwinds on the CapEx front, just primarily through higher fuel costs in the year. So that will serve as a bit of an offset to the efficiency gains. But I think we continue to unlock ways at which we improve our capital efficiency. Of course, the great execution results that we've seen in Southwest Appalachia is one example.

    在 CapEx 方面確實有一些逆風,主要是今年燃料成本較高。因此這會在一定程度上抵消效率提升帶來的效益。但我認為我們仍持續找出提升資本效率的方法。當然,我們在西南阿帕拉契(Southwest Appalachia)看到的優異執行成果就是一個例子。

  • We also highlight in the slide deck on page 8, what we're achieving with our enhanced completions in the Haynesville which has the ability to increase our per well production to the tune of about 5% to 10%. And most importantly there, that's really about flattening that year 2 and year 3 decline rate. So those things will ultimately translate into our 2027 maintenance capital level. So I do expect, as we head into next year on a maintenance CapEx level that we do see some modest improvements year-over-year.

    我們也在簡報第 8 頁強調,我們在 Haynesville 透過強化完井所達成的成果,能把單井產量提高約 5% 到 10%。而最重要的是,那主要是為了讓第 2 年與第 3 年的遞減率更趨平緩。因此,這些最終都會反映到我們 2027 年的維持性資本水準。所以我確實預期,當我們進入明年、以維持性 CapEx 來看,年對年會看到一些溫和的改善。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Good. Doug, and let me pick up on your second question. So the first bit was on the $200 million of acquired EBITDA of Twin Eagle, right? So that's kind of what we called our base EBITDA or their base EBITDA, and they've been consistently delivering that over the last couple of years in a low volatility kind of part of the market. When there's volatility, that number could be 1.5 to 2x of that particular number. So -- but we have kind of guided to the normal volatility type of range.

    很好。Doug,讓我接著回答你的第二個問題。首先是 Twin Eagle 併購帶來的 2 億美元 EBITDA,對吧?那是我們所稱的基礎 EBITDA,或他們的基礎 EBITDA;過去幾年他們在市場波動性較低的區段,一直穩定交付這個水準。當市場出現波動時,這個數字可能會是該水準的 1.5 到 2 倍。所以——但我們的指引是以一般波動程度的區間來看。

  • 250 million of synergies. I think you're right. We have a track record of over-delivering and being conservative of that. I will do everything that we can to squeeze that out and to accelerate delivery of that. We're pretty excited about what bringing together kind of our supply and financial strength can do with the capabilities and relationships and the infrastructure that Twin Eagle team have and when we bring that together what it can unlock.

    至於 2.5 億美元的協同效益。我想你說得對。我們過去的紀錄是往往超額達成,而且在這方面偏保守。我會盡一切努力把這些效益擠出來,並加速交付。我們對於把我們的供應能力與財務實力,結合 Twin Eagle 團隊的能力、關係與基礎設施後所能帶來的解鎖效果感到非常興奮。

  • Just then to the breakeven question, right? So on an excluding dividend basis, which is probably most comparable to others. We are around 270 million today. The acquisition itself will reduce that breakeven by about $0.05 to $0.10. And with the synergies, that's about $0.10 to $0.15. And if you include the full 750 million of M&C delivery, which we shared in our deck, that's around a $0.30 breakeven improvement overall. So here, you got all the stats.

    再談到損益兩平的問題,對吧?以不含股利的基礎來看,這大概是與其他公司最可比的口徑。我們目前大約是 2.7 億美元。這筆併購本身會把損益兩平降低約 0.05 到 0.10 美元;加上協同效益後,大約是 0.10 到 0.15 美元。如果把我們在簡報中分享的完整 7.5 億美元 M&C 交付也納入,整體約可改善 0.30 美元的損益兩平。所以,這裡你有所有的數據。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

    Scott Hanold,RBC Capital Markets。

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • My first question is also on Twin Eagle. And I'd be interesting to see if you all could compare and contrast the advantages of this more commercial strategy for integration versus owning midstream assets, so more of the asset-heavy kind of opportunities. So can pair and contrast it to kind of advantages and disadvantages of those strategies.

    我的第一個問題也是關於 Twin Eagle。我想看看你們是否能比較並對照:這種更偏商業化的整合策略,相較於持有中游資產、也就是更偏資產重(asset-heavy)的機會,其優勢是什麼。也請對照這些策略的優點與缺點。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Maybe I'll start and I'll let Marcel jump in. Generally, we consider this a capital-light opportunity. So we are reaching premium markets in a bigger footprint for a lot less money upfront that generally goes to superior returns. That was part of our -- part of the thesis of why we wanted to do this particular transaction. After that, it doesn't mean we won't do things like NGI, which is, hey, if we can do midstream deals and partnerships that help us get our gas to better markets, and we'll use Twin Eagle to go and market around that. We would do those types of things.

    也許我先開始,然後讓Marcel補充。整體而言,我們認為這是一個輕資本的機會。因此,我們能以更少的前期資金,在更大的版圖中觸及溢價市場,而這通常會帶來更優異的報酬。這也是我們——也是我們之所以想做這筆特定交易的論點之一。此外,這並不代表我們不會做像NGI這樣的事情;也就是說,如果我們能透過中游交易與合作夥伴關係,幫助我們把天然氣送到更好的市場,我們也會運用Twin Eagle在周邊進行行銷。我們會做這類事情。

  • Being a midstream company is not what we are. We're not a midstream company. We're not trying to be a midstream company. We think there are a lot of great ones out there. Williams does a great job. (inaudible) does a great job. And so that's a hard place for us to compete. -- we prefer to compete on a customer basis on an upstream basis. But if we have opportunities to unlock our gas to go further and increase our prices, we're going to do that. Anything to add?

    成為一家中游公司並不是我們的定位。我們不是中游公司。我們也不打算成為中游公司。我們認為市場上有很多很優秀的中游公司。Williams做得很好。(聽不清)也做得很好。因此那對我們來說是一個很難競爭的領域——我們更傾向於在客戶層面、在上游層面競爭。但如果有機會能解鎖我們的天然氣、讓它走得更遠並提高售價,我們就會去做。還有要補充的嗎?

  • Scott Hanold - Analyst

    Scott Hanold - Analyst

  • And my follow-up is just on the Western Haynesville, can you give us a sense of what you've seen from the first well so far and on the cost side? And at some point in time, do you think this can compete with the greater portfolio?

    我接著追問一下關於西部Haynesville:你們能否分享一下目前第一口井的表現,以及成本面的情況?另外,在某個時間點,你們認為它能與更大的資產組合競爭嗎?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Scott, it's Josh here. We've been really pleased with what we've seen both from an execution and early productivity in the Western Haynesville. -- it's incredibly complex. Deep, you're over 17,000 feet deep there, and so costs are high. We absolutely see line of sight through improved drilling techniques, better completion designs, not just to drive down cost over time, but also to further enhance well productivity.

    Scott,我是Josh。我們對西部Haynesville目前看到的情況非常滿意,無論是執行面還是早期產能表現——那裡的情況極其複雜。井深很深,超過17,000英尺,因此成本偏高。我們確實看得到透過改進鑽井技術、更好的完井設計,不僅能隨時間降低成本,也能進一步提升單井產能。

  • That play for us, I would just note, is truly considered exploratory in nature. There are still a lot of things that we have to learn. But what we love about it is the upside of growth that it provides for the company.

    對我們而言,我想指出,這個區塊確實被視為具探索性質。我們仍有很多事情需要學習。但我們喜歡的是,它為公司帶來的成長上行空間。

  • We do have a ways to go, I would say, to further appraise it. We just finished drilling our second well in the play in the second quarter. That was just a vertical test well to further delineate the reservoir pleased with what we've seen there. and we'll drill a third well later in the year.

    我會說,我們還需要一段時間來進一步評估它。我們在第二季剛完成在該區塊鑽第二口井。那只是一口垂直測試井,用於進一步界定儲層;我們對目前看到的結果感到滿意。而我們將在今年稍晚鑽第三口井。

  • The first well is on production. That data is now in the public domain. I've been pretty pleased with the productivity, high pressures and so it does have the making. But again, this is something for us that we put in the appraisal stage. And we really have that luxury simply because of the depth of inventory that we have across our Louisiana position. over 2,000 locations, roughly 20 years of inventory. And the fact that we own 75% of all Tier 1 inventory really puts us in a position of strength and simply not as dependent upon the Western Haynesville, but again, I would just note this creates a great growth option for the company as we head into the back end of the decade.

    第一口井已經投產。相關數據現在已在公開領域。我對其產能表現相當滿意,壓力很高,因此確實具備成形的條件。但再次強調,對我們而言,這仍處於評估階段。而我們之所以有這樣的餘裕,純粹是因為我們在路易斯安那的部位擁有非常深的庫存:超過2,000個井位,約20年的庫存。再加上我們擁有全部一級(Tier 1)庫存的75%,這讓我們處於強勢地位,也使我們不必過度依賴西部Haynesville;但我仍要指出,隨著我們邁向本十年後段,這為公司創造了一個很好的成長選項。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Freeman, Raymond James.

    John Freeman,Raymond James。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up, Josh, on some of your comments on the Haynesville, where you talked about the success that you all had on the enhanced completions, which all slow show in the slide deck. And if maybe you can just sort of elaborate a little bit as I believe those -- the one trade-off as you do have a little bit longer cycle times, which I think pushed some of those Haynesville pills into next year, but if you can just sort of elaborate on that dynamic.

    Josh,我想就你對Haynesville的一些評論再追問一下。你提到你們在強化完井方面取得的成功,投影片也有展示。如果可以的話,能否再多說一點?因為我理解那——其中一個取捨是週期時間會稍微拉長,我想這也把部分Haynesville的完井(tills)推到明年;如果你能再說明一下這個動態就好。

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, sure. We've really put ourselves in a competitive advantage in the Haynesville for one, just the scale additional opportunities to go out and how we source certain components of the supply chain. As an example, our procurement of sand comes at roughly 1/3 of the cost of where our competitors are. And that's really one of the items that's unlocking this greater well performance. We can simply pump larger, more complex completions, and that's what's ultimately delivering the increased production, but most importantly, improvement in returns and lower breakevens.

    好的,當然。我們在Haynesville確實建立了競爭優勢,首先是規模帶來的額外機會,以及我們在供應鏈某些環節的採購方式。例如,我們採購砂的成本大約只有競爭對手的1/3。而這正是解鎖更佳單井表現的因素之一。我們可以直接進行更大規模、更複雜的壓裂完井,最終帶來更高的產量,更重要的是提升報酬、降低損益兩平點。

  • Specifically, on your point on the cycle times, with the bigger fracs that leads to large longer pump times, longer drill out periods. And so the knock-on impact as it does start pushing out some of our tills. We'll end up with roughly 10 fewer tills in the year than what we anticipated. There's opportunities to go accelerate those, but the current environment really isn't necessarily needing that incremental gas, so we're happy to allow these turn-in lines to float into 2027.

    具體就你提到的週期時間而言,更大的壓裂會導致更長的泵送時間、更長的鑽塞(drill out)期間。因此連帶影響是,確實會把我們部分的完井(tills)往後推。我們今年最終大約會比原先預期少10個tills。雖然有機會加速,但在目前的環境下並不一定需要那額外的天然氣增量,所以我們也樂於讓這些投產時點延後到2027年。

  • John Freeman - Analyst

    John Freeman - Analyst

  • Great. And then just my follow-up question, just sticking with the Haynesville, can you discuss what's kind of being evaluated with the Gen X testing that's underway, what your -- it looks like the initial results are promising, but just remind us kind of what you're testing there?

    很好。接著我的追問,仍然聚焦Haynesville:你能談談目前正在進行的Gen X測試在評估什麼嗎?看起來初步結果不錯,但請再提醒我們你們在那裡主要測試的是什麼?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, sure. One of the things about the Haynesville is you end up producing 70% of the EUR in the first couple of years of production. And so what we're trying to unlock is to create a structural change in how we drain the reservoir and therefore, how those longer-term decline rates show up. we simply want to access more of the reservoir from a carbon wellbore.

    好的,當然。Haynesville的一個特點是,最初幾年的生產就會產出約70%的最終可採儲量(EUR)。因此我們想要解鎖的是:在我們排採儲層的方式上做出結構性改變,進而影響長期遞減率的呈現。我們只是希望能從一個水平井筒接觸到更多的儲層。

  • And so we are experimenting with some various completion techniques that allows us to enhance that stimulated rock volume with the goal of increasing EURs, which we believe ultimately will lead to better returns in the asset, lower reinvestment rates and lower breakeven and so we've been pleased with what we've seen to date. It's a little bit too early for us to talk about it. We think there's a real competitive advantage with what we're doing. And so we'll hopefully be in a position to talk about that in the year to come.

    因此我們正在嘗試各種完井技術,以提升受刺激岩體體積(stimulated rock volume),目標是提高EUR;我們相信這最終會帶來更好的資產報酬、更低的再投資率與更低的損益兩平點,因此目前看到的結果讓我們感到滿意。但現在談這個還稍微早了一點。我們認為我們正在做的事情具有真正的競爭優勢。因此希望在未來一年內,我們能有條件對外進一步說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    Neil Mehta,Goldman Sachs。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Mike, thanks for the color around the CEO process. Maybe you can unpack that a little bit more for us. It sounds like you said 6 to 9 months, we're 6 months in, and it will get done by the next -- by 9 months. So at this point, you probably have some visibility, Mike. Maybe you talk a little bit about characteristics that the Board is looking for? Are you happy with how the process is progressing? And any updates you want to provide to the market?

    Mike,謝謝你分享CEO遴選流程的細節。也許你可以再為我們多拆解一點。聽起來你說是6到9個月,我們現在進行到第6個月,並且會在——在第9個月前完成。所以在這個時間點,你應該已經有一些能見度了,Mike。也許你可以談談董事會在尋找的特質是什麼?你對流程進展滿意嗎?以及你想對市場提供任何更新嗎?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Process is progressing well. We're definitely in the back third of this, which is why I'm confident we'll meet our goals.

    當然。流程進展順利。我們確實已進入最後三分之一的階段,這也是我有信心我們會達成目標的原因。

  • The person that we're looking for is someone who has a long career in energy. We've talked about how it won't be someone from the outside of the industry. Person will have success on their resume that we hope to capture and bring to our company. they have to believe in the integrated gas story model that we've been working on. I mean I don't think that's very controversial in what we're trying to do. And so that person will like that and have an opportunity to make that even better.

    我們在尋找的人選,是在能源領域有長期職涯經驗的人。我們也談過,這不會是來自產業外部的人。這位人選的履歷上必須有我們希望能吸收並帶進公司的一些成功經驗。他們必須相信我們一直在推動的整合式天然氣故事/商業模式。我的意思是,我不認為我們想做的事情有什麼太具爭議之處。因此,這個人會喜歡這個方向,並且有機會把它做得更好。

  • But look, this company is not made on one person. It's made on the team, and I think we spend just as much time working on our team. If you think about the last 6 months, of course, we have Marcel here, who's been an amazing addition to the team as CFO. We've also had Chief Risk Officer. We've had (inaudible) with us today.

    但你看,這家公司不是靠一個人打造的。它是靠團隊打造的,而我認為我們花在打造團隊上的時間同樣多。如果你回顧過去6個月,當然,我們有Marcel加入,擔任CFO,對團隊是非常棒的補強。我們也有首席風險長。今天也有(聽不清)和我們在一起。

  • And then we've done other stuff that is actually super helpful to the team. This last 6 months, we've rebuilt our business development team in Houston, Texas. Why is that important? You do not have Twin Eagle without building a phenomenal team to work it. And so that is something of the benefits that we talked about why we're going to move from Oklahoma City.

    然後我們也做了其他其實對團隊非常有幫助的事情。過去這6個月,我們在德州休士頓重建了我們的業務開發團隊。為什麼這很重要?沒有打造一支出色的團隊來運作,就不會有Twin Eagle。因此,這也是我們談到為什麼要從奧克拉荷馬市搬遷的其中一項好處。

  • That team has really outkicked the goal in this one. So it's about team first because there's no perfect CEO, but the CEO will have -- they'll definitely have success, and they'll definitely mean energy.

    那個團隊在這件事上真的大幅超越目標。所以是團隊優先,因為沒有完美的CEO,但CEO會——他們一定會有成功的經歷,而且一定懂能源。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • And one of the things I took away from the slide is growing confidence around the Southwest part of the Appalachia business. And just talk about as you think about where you want to be deploying dollars Haynesville versus the Northeast versus Southwest? Is Southwest continuing to move up the pecking order, and if so why?

    我從投影片中帶走的一點是,對阿帕拉契亞西南部業務的信心正在提升。想請你談談,當你思考資金要部署在哪裡時,Haynesville相較於東北部相較於西南部,你會怎麼看?西南部是否持續在優先順序中上升?如果是,原因是什麼?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Credit to the team again for the work that we've been doing in Southwest out. I think it's worth just noting, if you go back to the integration of Chesapeake and Southwestern, really, it was the Haynesville was the focus of that integration. And of course, we delivered a tremendous amount of synergies from that asset.

    再次要把功勞歸於團隊在西南部所做的工作。我覺得值得一提的是,如果你回到Chesapeake與Southwestern的整合,實際上,Haynesville是那次整合的重點。當然,我們也從那項資產交付了大量的協同效益。

  • But one of the advantages that we have as a company is that being multi-basin, running large development programs, we will drill roughly 200 wells a year. We have plenty of opportunities to test new tools, equipment, designs and then go export those rapidly across the other business units. And that's exactly what we've seen happen in Southwest Appalachia, just leveraging all the learnings that we've been able to put in place from across the company.

    但我們作為一家公司的優勢之一是:我們是多盆地布局、運行大型開發計畫,我們每年大約會鑽200口井。我們有很多機會去測試新工具、設備與設計,然後快速把這些成果複製到其他事業單位。而這正是我們在阿帕拉契亞西南部看到的情況——只是把我們在公司各處累積並落地的所有經驗加以運用。

  • Specifically on the capital allocation front, this is the power of our portfolio being across 3 distinct operating basins that each have their own production characteristics and cost characteristics associated with them. One of the great things about Southwest Appalachia, of course, as you have liquid exposure. And so I've talked earlier about the realized inflation associated with higher fuel costs.

    就資本配置而言,這正是我們投資組合橫跨3個不同營運盆地的威力;每個盆地都有各自的產量特性與成本特性。阿帕拉契亞西南部的一大優點,當然是你有液體(液態烴)曝險。因此我先前談到與燃料成本上升相關的已實現通膨。

  • While that's been more than offset by about 3x of increased EBITDA associated with higher liquid costs in the year. And so as we think about capital allocation across the business, we're always going to be tuned into the fundamentals. And as we see movements in mid-cycle price, as we see movements in cost structures, we're in a position to reallocate capital differently to generate the best return on capital for our shareholders.

    而這已被今年因液體價格較高所帶來、約3倍的EBITDA增加所抵銷並且超過。因此,當我們思考跨業務的資本配置時,我們會始終緊盯基本面。當我們看到中周期價格的變動、看到成本結構的變動時,我們有能力以不同方式重新配置資本,為股東創造最佳的資本報酬。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

    Kevin MacCurdy,Pickering Energy Partners。

  • Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

    Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

  • I wanted to dive into the EBITDA forecast for Twin Eagle a little bit more and how you arrived at that estimate. When you forecast that $200 million a year, is that driven by kind of historical EBITDA storage and transport spreads or is the value really in the origination agreements? And then maybe you could add on what kind of variability you anticipate on that EBITDA number for a good year and a bad year.

    我想更深入了解一下Twin Eagle的EBITDA預測,以及你們是如何得出那個估計值的。當你們預測每年2億美元時,這主要是由歷史EBITDA、儲存與運輸價差所驅動,還是價值其實主要來自於承攬/引入(origination)協議?另外也想請你補充一下,你們預期這個EBITDA數字在好年與壞年大概會有多大的波動。

  • Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

    Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

  • So the $200 million is what we have seen quite ratably over the last couple of years, and we have used that as the basis, right? It's a ratable business. So we use as a basis looking forward as well. And a bit earlier, I talked about this is in kind of normal volatility here when there's high volatility events, there's upside to this particular number. about 1.5 to 2x you should think about when there's more volatility. So that's the basis.

    這2億美元是我們在過去幾年相當穩定地看到的水準,我們也以此作為基礎,對吧?這是一門相對穩定的業務。所以我們也把它作為往前看的基礎。我稍早也提到,這是在一般波動範圍內;當出現高波動事件時,這個數字會有上行空間。在波動更大時,你可以把它想成大約有1.5到2倍的上行。所以這就是基礎。

  • The business, yes, it starts with origination from the customer contracts back into the infrastructure and then back into supply, where the real value is driven off is optimizing the logistics of this business. And the Twin Eagle team is really good at that. And that's what drives most of the value in that business.

    這門業務,是的,它從客戶合約的承攬/引入(origination)開始,回接到基礎設施,再回到供應端;真正的價值來源在於把這門業務的物流最佳化。而Twin Eagle團隊在這方面非常擅長。這也是驅動該業務大部分價值的原因。

  • Mike already mentioned that earlier, and we shared that there's over 1,300 customers within the Twin Eagle book. There are many support agreements, both supply as well as infrastructure that support all of that. And it has been quite repeatable, and the team has proven it by being profitable every single year for the last 15 years, right? And especially that $200 million number has been the underlying basis for the last couple of years, and we feel comfortable with that.

    Mike先前也提到過,我們也分享過,Twin Eagle的客戶名單中有超過1,300位客戶。有許多支援協議,包括供應端以及基礎設施端,來支撐這一切。而且這已經相當可重複驗證,團隊也用過去15年每一年都獲利來證明,對吧?尤其是這2億美元的數字,在過去幾年一直是其底層基礎,我們對此感到有信心。

  • And then I talked a bit about the upside or the synergies that we can deliver when we integrate that. And I think on the Twin Eagle side, particularly our financial strength as well as our long-term supply allows them to add a customer base that they have so far not been able to kind of touch the longer duration type of agreements that they can do. And then to the Expand portfolio, the Twin Eagle capability, their customer relationships, their access to kind of coast-to-coast and into Canada will really help to unlock value from the 9 [bps] a day or so that we are moving today. So that's the way that this deal you should expect a deal to work.

    接著我也談了一些在整合後我們能交付的上行空間或協同效益。我認為在Twin Eagle這邊,特別是我們的財務實力以及長期供應,讓他們能夠擴增客戶基礎,去觸及他們迄今較難切入的較長期間類型協議。此外,對於Expand投資組合而言,Twin Eagle的能力、他們的客戶關係、以及他們橫跨全美並延伸到加拿大的觸達能力,將非常有助於釋放我們目前每天大約在移動的9 [bps]左右的價值。所以,這就是你應該期待這筆交易如何發揮作用的方式。

  • Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

    Kevin MacCurdy - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that answer. And maybe as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the production cadence. It looks like 3Q guidance is kind of flattish, but the implied 4Q is higher. So I just wanted to confirm your intention is to kind of ramp into? And if so, is that really the new run rate? Or is that just maybe a run rate for the winter months?

    很好。感謝你的回答。另外作為追問,我想問一下產量節奏。看起來第三季指引大致持平,但隱含的第四季更高。所以我想確認一下,你們的意圖是要逐步拉升到那個水準嗎?如果是,那是否就是新的運行水準(run rate)?還是那可能只是冬季月份的運行水準?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • So we do anticipate at this point in time to have a modest ramp of volume into the fourth quarter. This is showing up primarily across our Appalachia business units, where we would anticipate winter-driven demand to start to tighten basis. And so we think growing production into that demand pool makes a lot of sense for the company.

    因此,我們目前確實預期第四季的出貨量會有溫和的爬升。這主要反映在我們阿帕拉契亞(Appalachia)各業務單位上,我們預期冬季帶動的需求將開始使基差收斂。因此,我們認為把產量提高以滿足那個需求池,對公司而言非常合理。

  • Now I will say that we start to see demand soften, weather is not showing up. I think we do reserve the right. We've proven over time to the active managers of production, that's both with curtailments through shoulder seasons as well as how we think about our turn-in-line schedule. So we do expect to be up over 7.6 Bcfe a day in the fourth quarter, but we give a range for a reason, and that's because we want to maintain flexible with how we deliver volumes and best align those volumes with price.

    不過我也要說,我們開始看到需求轉弱、天氣因素尚未顯現。我認為我們保留調整的權利。長期以來我們已證明自己是積極的產量管理者,無論是在淡季(shoulder seasons)透過限產(curtailments),或是我們如何看待我們的排隊投產(turn-in-line)時程。因此,我們確實預期第四季日產量會高於 7.6 Bcfe,但我們之所以提供區間,是因為我們希望在交付量上保持彈性,並讓這些量與價格最佳對齊。

  • Now as we think about that run rate coming out of the year, right now, again, our business is built around delivering that 7.5 Bcfe a day. And you will see us move above and below that, of course, across the course of the year, again, trying to best align our production with price.

    至於我們在年底之後的運行水準(run rate),目前同樣地,我們的業務是以日交付 7.5 Bcfe 為核心來建構的。而你們也會看到我們在一年當中會高於或低於這個水準,當然,仍是為了讓我們的產量與價格最佳對齊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gabe Daoud, Truist.

    Gabe Daoud,Truist。

  • Gabe Daoud - Analyst

    Gabe Daoud - Analyst

  • Maybe just a quick one for me on Twin Eagle, maybe a question for Marcel. The $200 million EBITDA, maybe more of an accounting question, but how should we think about that showing up and expands P&L over time? Is that all just kind of dumped into the marketing line? Or does that impact expand upstream realizations over time?

    我這邊可能快速問一個關於 Twin Eagle 的問題,或許給 Marcel。那 2 億美元的 EBITDA,可能比較偏會計問題,但我們應該如何理解它未來在損益表(P&L)中隨時間呈現與擴散?那會不會就是全部都放到行銷(marketing)那一行?還是會隨時間影響上游的實現價格(upstream realizations)?

  • Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

    Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

  • We expect it to show up in accounting in 3 different lines, and we'll work out the details and provide some more clarity kind of as we kind of complete the deal and into the next year, right? So the first line, you would see it in realizations. Clearly, it's integrated to our business. The second line is marketing, as you do. And then the third line in derivatives, we also expect to see some of that kind of we're working now to plan our integration as well as kind of completion of the transaction. And once we get to that point, we'll be able to help you guide into 2027 as well.

    我們預期在會計上會分別呈現在 3 個不同的科目,我們會把細節釐清,並在交易完成以及進入明年時提供更清楚的說明,對吧?第一個科目,你會在實現價格(realizations)中看到。很明顯,它與我們的業務是整合在一起的。第二個科目是行銷(marketing),如你所預期。第三個科目是在衍生性金融商品(derivatives),我們也預期會看到其中一部分;我們目前也正在規劃整合以及交易完成的相關工作。等到我們走到那一步,我們也能協助你們對 2027 年做出指引。

  • Gabe Daoud - Analyst

    Gabe Daoud - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then another quick follow-up on Twin Eagle. So you mentioned the magnitude of outperformance during a period of dislocation. So I'd imagine 1Q, Twin Eagle probably put up a number significantly higher than what the quarterly run rate would imply. Is that right? Is it that 1.5 to 2x number that you cited?

    這很有幫助。再針對 Twin Eagle 快速追問一下。你提到在市場失衡(dislocation)期間的超額表現幅度。所以我猜第一季(1Q)Twin Eagle 的數字可能顯著高於季度常態運行水準(quarterly run rate)所暗示的水準。是這樣嗎?會是你提到的 1.5 到 2 倍那個數字嗎?

  • Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

    Marcel Teunissen - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think you'll see when we post our financials that they absolutely outperformed this $200 million.

    我想你們在我們公布財報時會看到,他們的表現確實明顯優於這 2 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betty Jiang, Barclays.

    Betty Jiang,Barclays。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • I want to start with a macro question first. It speaks to the slide 15. I think one of the key investor debate these days is just reconciling this longer-term very structural high growth. But at the same time, there's the near-term bearish gas headwinds. So longer term, if this demand growth materializes, how do you guys think about ultimately filling that demand, how much do you think will be coming from the Haynesville versus Appalachia, which seemingly will be a growth driver as well and associated gas? And then in the near term, given where gas prices here, do you think we could see some slowdown in the Haynesville, whether that's coming from in spend or other Haynesville more broadly until there is a stronger gas price signal?

    我想先從一個總體(macro)問題開始。這與第 15 頁投影片有關。我認為投資人目前的一個主要辯論點,是如何調和長期、非常結構性的高成長,但同時又面臨短期偏空的天然氣逆風。長期來看,如果這個需求成長真的實現,你們如何看待最終要如何填補這些需求?你們認為會有多少來自 Haynesville、多少來自阿帕拉契亞(Appalachia)(看起來它也會是成長驅動因素)以及伴生氣(associated gas)?另外在短期,考量目前的氣價,你們認為 Haynesville 可能會出現一些放緩嗎?不論是資本支出(spend)或 Haynesville 整體層面,直到出現更強的氣價訊號為止?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Betty, this is Josh. So I think in the near term, specifically in the Haynesville, I think there's an expectation that you do see some additional production growth in the back half of the year. There's probably a half B to B a day have additional growth. But I think I would just note that, that's really dependent upon the actions of one operator in the basin.

    Betty,我是 Josh。我認為短期內,特別是在 Haynesville,市場預期你確實會在今年下半年看到一些額外的產量成長。大概會有每天 0.5 B 到 1 B 的額外成長。但我想指出的是,那其實很大程度取決於該盆地某一家營運商的行動。

  • Clearly, the market, it's in a modestly oversupplied position right now. You're also faced with additional Permian egress that's coming on to the tune of 3.5 or so Bcfe a day. of additional egress by year-end. And so that will keep the markets, I would say, on the oversupply position through at least probably the first half of 2027.

    很明顯,目前市場處於小幅供給過剩的狀態。你同時也面臨 Permian 額外外輸能力(egress)上線,規模大約是到年底新增約 3.5 Bcfe/日的外輸。因此,我會說這將使市場至少到 2027 年上半年都維持在供給過剩的狀態。

  • I think as we get into the second half, we do anticipate some structural tightening in the markets where we would anticipate 5.5 to 6 Bcfe a day of new demand showing up. And so as we think about that demand, not just through '27, but again, I think you have to think a little bit longer term than that, looking at 19 to 24 Bcfe a day of incremental demand by the end of the decade, our business is built to be able to grow into that demand. Specifically, we think about the Haynesville with our deep inventory, the access to infrastructure now of the business being further enhanced combining with Twin Eagle, we are very well positioned to meet the needs of customers heading into the end of the decade.

    我認為進入下半年後,我們確實預期市場會出現一些結構性的收緊,屆時我們預期會有每天 5.5 到 6 Bcfe 的新需求出現。因此,當我們思考這些需求時,不只是到 2027 年;我認為你必須把時間拉得更長一些,看到在本十年末之前新增需求將達到每天 19 到 24 Bcfe,而我們的業務架構就是為了能夠成長以滿足這些需求。具體而言,我們看待 Haynesville 時,憑藉我們深厚的庫存(inventory),以及在與 Twin Eagle 結合後進一步強化的基礎設施可及性,我們非常有利於在本十年末之前滿足客戶需求。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And actually, that ties into my Twin Eagle follow-up. So some Northeast producers do talk about growing into contracted demand. That's historically not the same stance for an with Twin Eagle's marketing capabilities, do you think there is more appetite if these contract opportunities materialize that you will tie your volume growth with that?

    這很有幫助。而且這也連結到我對 Twin Eagle 的追問。一些東北部(Northeast)生產商確實會談到依照已簽約的需求來擴產。這在歷史上並不是 Expand 的同樣立場;但有了 Twin Eagle 的行銷能力,如果這些合約機會真的出現,你們是否會更有意願把產量成長與這些合約綁定?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, absolutely. We -- one of our fundamental principles is we want to facilitate new demand so that we can grow into it. I mean, the value of Twin Eagle is if they can help us identify and put that demand together, then we'll grow into it.

    當然會。我們——我們的一項基本原則就是希望促成新的需求,這樣我們才能成長以滿足它。我的意思是,Twin Eagle 的價值在於,如果他們能協助我們辨識並把那個需求整合起來,那我們就會成長以滿足它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Philip Jungwirth, BMO.

    Philip Jungwirth,BMO。

  • Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

    Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

  • Curious what the dynamic is across Twin Eagle's producer network and purchase agreements at the wellhead and is part of the strategy evolved at all, given the combination with Expand. And separately, just how has customer feedback been so far to the deal? And when you hear from them, what are they most excited about around the combination?

    我很好奇 Twin Eagle 的生產商網絡,以及在井口(wellhead)的採購協議(purchase agreements)之間的動態是什麼?在與 Expand 結合之後,策略是否有任何演變?另外,迄今為止客戶對這筆交易的回饋如何?當你們聽到客戶的聲音時,他們對這個結合最興奮的是什麼?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • When we talk to Twin Eagle guys, they think of this as a 3-legged stool. They have their customers, they have credit, and they have supply. We're taking care of both credit and supply. So they're sort of get on that because customers always drive transactions and customers want to have surety of supply and they want to know people are in business for long term. And so that is -- makes them and their group super excited.

    當我們和 Twin Eagle 的團隊交流時,他們把這看作是一張三腳凳。他們有客戶、有信用(credit)、也有供應(supply)。我們會把信用與供應這兩塊都照顧好。所以他們會在這上面加速推進,因為客戶永遠是交易的驅動者,而客戶希望供應有確定性(surety of supply),也希望知道合作對象是長期經營的。因此,這讓他們以及他們的團隊都非常興奮。

  • Other things that they're excited about is term. when you don't have the -- they have a pretty short-term credit facility by having a long term, they're starting to get excited about how do I extend term, what type of customers and size. So absolutely, team is ready to go.

    他們另外感到興奮的是「期限」。當你沒有——他們目前有一個相當短期的信貸融資安排;一旦有了長期,他們就開始對「我該如何延長期限、什麼類型的客戶以及規模」感到興奮。所以絕對是,團隊已準備就緒。

  • Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

    Phillip Jungwirth - Analyst

  • And then the marketing and commercial strategy started around $500 million, $0.20 an Mcf. With Twin, we've raised that to $750 or $0.30. Is there any reason you would look to keep pushing this higher even if it requires additional inorganic investment?

    接著,行銷與商業策略原本是以 5 億美元、每 Mcf 0.20 美元為起點。透過 Twin,我們已把它提高到 7.5 億美元或每 Mcf 0.30 美元。即使需要額外的非有機投資,你們是否仍會考慮繼續把這個目標推得更高?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • No, we'll continue to push that higher and look for opportunities, right? So the way that we have now structured at our original $500 million, about half of that we were expecting to come from new demand, so primarily LNG and the rest of our kind of kind of premium demand markets as well as volatility management. Clearly, with the Twin Eagle acquisition, we get some of that. We delivered synergies and accelerate what we had identified, but we think we can do now quicker.

    不,我們會持續把它往上推,並尋找機會,對吧?所以以我們現在的架構來看,在原本 5 億美元的目標中,大約一半我們預期會來自新增需求,主要是 LNG,以及其餘一些溢價需求市場與波動管理。很明顯地,透過收購 Twin Eagle,我們取得了其中一部分。我們實現了協同效益並加速了我們所辨識的項目,但我們認為現在可以做得更快。

  • And then we still have our LNG that comes on top of it. That's the $750 million. And as Mike kind of saying if we want to -- we are the leading integrated gas company, and so we continue to push into that customer and see where we can identify more value on that side. And we'll prefer to do that capital light as we have already said.

    然後我們的 LNG 仍會在此基礎上再加上去。那就是 7.5 億美元。而且如同 Mike 剛才所說,如果我們想要——我們是領先的整合型天然氣公司,因此我們會持續深入這些客戶端,看看在那一端還能辨識出更多價值。而且我們會偏好以輕資本的方式來做,正如我們先前已經說過的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Scialla, Stephens.

    Michael Scialla,Stephens。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • Your leasing, you mentioned came in higher than did I just want to see what the opportunity set looks like there going forward. And if you maintain the pace of leasing activity that you had in the first half, is it fair to assume that you might be pushing towards the high end of your capital -- CapEx guidance for the year?

    你們的租賃,你提到表現高於預期;我想了解未來那邊的機會集合看起來如何。如果你們維持上半年那樣的租賃活動節奏,是否可以合理推測你們可能會接近今年資本——資本支出(CapEx)指引的高端?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Mike, Q2 was definitely, I think, the highlight for us. I think we've been working very, very hard to bring forward some interesting opportunities for the company. Case in point, the 3,000 acres that we acquired in the core of Bradford County. That's something we've been working for well over 2 years to bring to fruition. So we have a very capable and active land organization working in concert with the subsurface teams to turn up new opportunities.

    Mike,第二季確實是——我認為——我們的一個亮點。我想我們一直非常、非常努力,為公司把一些有意思的機會提前帶出來。例如,我們在 Bradford 郡核心區收購的 3,000 英畝。那是我們投入超過 2 年才促成的成果。因此,我們有一個非常有能力且積極的土地團隊,與地下(subsurface)團隊協同合作,發掘新的機會。

  • And so we do remain heavily focused on identifying new opportunities they're simply hard to predict. And so we do anticipate across the second half of the year that spending will wind down a little bit. But if there's good opportunities, the company is well positioned financially to go action, these accretive transactions.

    因此我們仍高度聚焦於辨識新機會,只是這些機會確實很難預測。所以我們預期在今年下半年,支出會稍微放緩一些。但如果有好的機會,公司在財務上也具備良好條件去採取行動、完成這些具增益性的交易。

  • Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

    Mike Scialla - Equity Analyst

  • Got you. And Mike, last quarter, you said on the marketing side, you thought you could stack a lot of singles and doubles together and you didn't really need to do a large deal. But -- you did one obviously with Twin Eagle here. How do those opportunities change now? Are they still part of the plan? Or do those go away with the Twin Eagle deal?

    了解。另外,Mike,上季你在行銷端提到,你認為可以把很多「一壘安打、二壘安打」疊加起來,不一定需要做一筆大型交易。但——你們這次顯然和 Twin Eagle 做了一筆。現在這些機會有什麼變化?它們仍是計畫的一部分嗎?還是說因為 Twin Eagle 這筆交易而消失了?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • No, we're still chasing those transactions. We'll end up stacking those singles and doubles, and that will continue. We'll just have a bigger footprint to put them across. And so you'll see us have plenty of activity in both sort of our original strategy as well as winning strategy.

    不,我們仍在追逐那些交易。我們會把那些一壘安打、二壘安打持續疊加起來,這會繼續下去。只是我們會有更大的版圖來承接並鋪開這些機會。因此你會看到我們在原本策略以及致勝策略兩方面都有相當多的活動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Annis, Texas Capital.

    John Annis,Texas Capital。

  • John Annis - Analyst

    John Annis - Analyst

  • Before my first one with pro forma storage increasing to 4 Bcfe, how much of that capacity is currently committed to existing customer arrangements versus available for optimization> And is the opportunity more about seasonal spreads, physical reliability or creating structured products for customers?

    在我第一個問題中,假設(pro forma)儲氣量增加到 4 Bcfe,其中有多少容量目前已承諾給既有客戶安排、又有多少可用於最佳化?而這個機會主要是關於季節性價差、實體供應可靠性,還是為客戶創造結構性產品?

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, sure. So we're not prepared to disclose exactly the customer relationships we have in storage. We think about it more holistically and we back up. We'd like to think about margin across the value chain, particularly around seasonal opportunities. Of course, they add gas and low price environments and then the winter they take it out. So you should think about like this cycle, right.

    好的,當然。我們尚未準備披露我們在儲氣方面的具體客戶關係。我們會更以整體角度來思考,並往後退一步看。我們希望從價值鏈全段的角度來看利潤,特別是圍繞季節性機會。當然,他們會在低價環境時注氣,到了冬季再把氣提取出來。所以你應該把它想成像這樣的一個循環,對吧。

  • John Annis - Analyst

    John Annis - Analyst

  • Makes sense. And then maybe taking a step back, does the expanded marketing and storage platform increased the value of maintaining spare productive capacity in the upstream business? I guess in other words, does the integrated platform make you more willing to build productive capacity curtail or grow production depending on market signals than you were on a stand-alone basis?

    明白。那再退一步看,擴大的行銷與儲氣平台,是否提高了在上游業務維持備用產能的價值?換句話說,整合平台是否會讓你們比起單一業務時,更願意依市場訊號來建立產能、限產或增產?

  • Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

    Josh Viets - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer

  • John, we actually love that concept. Of course, we've been proponents of actively managing production. And I think as we get closer to customers, have better insights on supply and demand trends, that just puts us in a stronger position to actively manage production both up and down.

    John,我們其實很喜歡這個概念。當然,我們一直是主張主動管理產量的支持者。而且我認為,當我們更貼近客戶、對供需趨勢有更好的洞察時,這會讓我們在主動上調或下調產量方面處於更有利的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mike Wichterich for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。各位女士先生,我們的問答環節到此結束。此時,我想把電話會議交回給 Mike Wichterich 先生,請他做任何結束致詞。

  • Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Wichterich - Chairman of the Board, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We're excited about this transaction, and we're excited about our team that we're building here. We expect to have a big quarter next quarter, so please stay tuned. Thank you for your time.

    謝謝各位參與我們的電話會議。我們對這筆交易感到振奮,也對我們正在打造的團隊感到振奮。我們預期下個季度會有一個很強勁的季度表現,請大家持續關注。謝謝各位的時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

    各位女士先生,感謝各位參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以掛線。祝各位今天愉快。