Expand Energy Corp (EXE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Expand Energy 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Teleconference. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Expand Energy 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。【操作說明】請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Colby Arnold, Manager, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係經理科爾比·阿諾德。請繼續。

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Expand Energy's 2025 Third Quarter Financial and Operating Results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation that we posted to our website yesterday.

謝謝你，喬納森。各位早安，感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，共同討論 Expand Energy 2025 年第三季的財務和營運業績。希望您已經有機會查看我們昨天發佈在網站上的新聞稿和更新後的投資者簡報。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements.

在今天早上的電話會議上，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，這些聲明包括無法透過參考現有資訊來確認的聲明，例如關於我們的信念、目標、預期、預測、展望和未來業績以及此類聲明所依據的假設的聲明。

Please note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings. Please recognize that, except as required by applicable law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性聲明有重大差異，包括我們在昨天的新聞稿和其他提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中指出和討論的因素。請注意，除適用法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過度依賴此類陳述。

We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across peers -- periods with peers. For any non-GAAP measure, we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure, and it can be found on our website.

我們也可能會參考一些非GAAP財務指標，這有助於與同業進行比較——與同業比較不同時期的情況。對於任何非GAAP指標，我們都會使用與最接近的對應GAAP指標的調節表，您可以在我們的網站上找到該調節表。

With me on the call today are Nick Dell'Osso, Josh Viets, Dan Turco and Brittany Raiford, Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的有 Nick Dell'Osso、Josh Viets、Dan Turco 和 Brittany Raiford，Nick 將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將開放電話會議進行問答環節。

So with that, thank you again, and I will now turn the teleconference over to Nick.

那麼，再次感謝各位，我現在將把電話會議交給尼克。

DGood morning, and thank you for joining our call. The third quarter marked the first year of Expand Energy. I'm extremely proud of the way our team has come together to collectively drive long-term value through safely reducing costs and efficiently developing our advantaged geographically diverse portfolio. As we demonstrated this quarter, our business continues to deliver and outperform every expectation pegged at merger onset. While there are many ways to measure synergies and their impact, we are clearly spending less for more production, which is the ultimate definition of efficiency.

早安，感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。第三季是Expand Energy成立的第一年。我為我們的團隊齊心協力，透過安全地降低成本和高效地開發我們具有優勢的地域多元化投資組合，共同創造長期價值而感到無比自豪。正如我們本季所展示的那樣，我們的業務持續取得超出合併之初所有預期的業績。雖然衡量綜效及其影響的方法有很多，但我們顯然用更少的錢生產了更多的產品，這才是效率的最終定義。

Nowhere is this more evident than in our Haynesville position, which has seen a meaningful step change in both efficiency and performance, enhancing the value of our 20-year-plus years of inventory. Today, we can deliver with 7 rigs, the same production it took 13 rigs to deliver in 2023. Since then, we have reduced well costs by greater than 25%, and year-to-date, our costs are 30% lower than peers based on third-party well proposals. Importantly, our optimized development and completion design continues to lead to improved productivity.

這一點在我們的海恩斯維爾工廠中體現得尤為明顯，該工廠的效率和業績都發生了顯著的飛躍式變化，提升了我們 20 多年來積累的庫存價值。如今，我們只需 7 台鑽孔機就能完成 2023 年需要 13 台鑽孔機才能完成的產量。自那時以來，我們已將油井成本降低了 25% 以上，根據第三方油井方案，今年迄今為止，我們的成本比同行低 30%。重要的是，我們優化的開發和完工設計持續帶來生產效率的提升。

Since 2022, our average well productivity was approximately 40% greater than the basin average, a trend we expect to continue. These efficiency gains are sustainable and deliver significant improvement to our breakevens, which today average less than $2.75 across the basin.

自 2022 年以來，我們的平均油井產量比盆地平均高出約 40%，我們預計這一趨勢還將繼續。這些效率提升是可持續的，並顯著改善了我們的損益平衡點，目前整個流域的平均損益平衡點不到 2.75 美元。

We have also used our low-cost advantage to attractively -- to add attractively priced acreage to our portfolio, giving us an option to develop volumes in East Texas and reach additional markets. Through the innovative efforts of our team, we are seeing success stories like this across our business, resulting in us delivering 50% more synergies than our original target. These meaningful efficiency gains and savings have greatly strengthened our underlying business and resulting cash flows. Since close, we've eliminated $1.2 billion in gross debt and returned nearly $850 million to shareholders.

我們還利用低成本優勢，以極具吸引力的價格將土地添加到我們的投資組合中，這使我們能夠在德克薩斯州東部開發大量土地，並進入更多市場。透過我們團隊的創新努力，我們在整個業務中看到了這樣的成功案例，使我們實現的協同效應比最初的目標高出 50%。這些顯著的效率提升和成本節約大大增強了我們的基礎業務和由此產生的現金流。自公司重組以來，我們已消除12億美元的總債務，並向股東返還了近8.5億美元。

We now expect to spend $150 million less to deliver 50 million cubic feet per day more of production in 2025 compared to our beginning of the year guidance. These efficiencies will carry forward to 2026, where should market conditions warrant, we are prepared to deliver 7.5 Bcf per day of production for approximately the same CapEx spent in 2025.

我們現在預計，到 2025 年，我們將節省 1.5 億美元，每天增加 5,000 萬立方英尺的產量，而年初的預期產量將低於此數。這些效率將延續到 2026 年，如果市場條件允許，我們準備好以與 2025 年大致相同的資本支出，以實現每天 75 億立方英尺的產量。

Looking ahead, we see significant opportunity to expand the value of natural gas by connecting our global scale to growing markets. Consumers need affordable, reliable, lower carbon energy and natural gas will play the largest and most crucial role in answering that call. By the end of the decade, natural gas demand is expected to grow 20%, driven by LNG, power and industrial growth. Expand sits in an advantaged position today, our diverse asset portfolio across 2 premier gas basins with 20 years of inventory, proven operational performance, unique market connectivity and investment-grade balance sheet are clear differentiators as we look to serve customers eager to secure reliable and flexible supply.

展望未來，我們看到透過將我們的全球規模與不斷增長的市場連接起來，擴大天然氣價值的巨大機會。消費者需要價格合理、可靠、低碳的能源，而天然氣將在滿足這項需求方面發揮最大、最關鍵的作用。到本十年末，受液化天然氣、電力和工業成長的推動，天然氣需求預計將增加 20%。Expand 目前處於有利地位，我們在 2 個頂級天然氣盆地擁有多元化的資產組合，20 年的庫存，經過驗證的營運業績，獨特的市場連接性和投資級的資產負債表，這些都是我們在服務渴望獲得可靠和靈活供應的客戶時明顯的優勢。

This is especially true along the Gulf Coast, where there is increasing competition for supply and lower carbon molecules. With NG3 now online, we can track our production from the wellhead to the end user and offer a responsibly sourced, differentiated lower carbon gas, something our counterparties value greatly as was the case with Lake Charles Methanol supply agreement we announced yesterday at a premium to NYMEX.

在墨西哥灣沿岸地區，這種情況尤其突出，因為那裡對低碳分子的供應競爭日益激烈。隨著 NG3 的上線，我們可以從井口到最終用戶追蹤我們的生產，並提供來源可靠、差異化的低碳天然氣，這是我們的交易對手非常看重的，就像我們昨天宣布的以高於紐約商品交易所價格的價格達成的查爾斯湖甲醇供應協議一樣。

Expand will serve as the sole supplier to this new build industrial facility, which is expected to commence operations in 2030 with global investment-grade offtake already secured. Importantly, we believe this agreement demonstrates our differentiated path to strategically connect our molecules to the highest growth markets at a premium price.

Expand 將成為這座新建工業設施的唯一供應商，該設施預計將於 2030 年開始運營，並已獲得全球投資級承購協議。重要的是，我們相信這項協議表明了我們獨特的策略路徑，即以溢價將我們的分子與成長最快的市場聯繫起來。

This announcement is also a great example of the evolution of our marketing strategy from value protection to value creation. We are intentionally enhancing our marketing and commercial organization to capitalize on our unique position as North America's largest natural gas producer. We see this organization as more than a few commercial transactions, but an opportunity to drive long-term value from our integrated well-connected portfolio.

這項公告也很好地體現了我們行銷策略從價值保護到價值創造的演變。我們正有意識地加強行銷和商業組織，以充分利用我們作為北美最大天然氣生產商的獨特地位。我們認為這項合作不僅是幾筆商業交易，更是從我們整合完善的投資組合中創造長期價值的機會。

As consumer demand grows, we will be positioned to provide reliable and flexible supply to meet that demand. We have the assets, scale and capital structure to be patient. Our experienced team will continue to ensure we are achieving the best long-term risk-adjusted returns possible in any agreement we enter. We are ready to answer the call of growing demand we see ahead, and we look forward to updating you on our progress.

隨著消費者需求的成長，我們將做好準備，提供可靠且靈活的供應，以滿足此需求。我們擁有足夠的資產、規模和資本結構，可以保持耐心。我們經驗豐富的團隊將繼續確保我們在達成的任何協議中都能獲得最佳的長期風險調整後收益。我們已做好準備，迎接未來不斷增長的需求，並期待向您報告我們的進展。

We'll now turn the call over to Q&A.

現在我們將把通話轉至問答環節。

And our first question for today comes from the line of Matt Portillo, TPH.

今天我們的第一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

I wanted to start out on a question that may be focused a bit more on the medium term with the outlook on Page 9. Just curious if you might be able to speak to the evolution of gas demand you're seeing regionally around Texas, Louisiana and Arizona, and if your downstream counterparties are starting to realize the value producers like yourself, might be bringing to the table for contracts that require 10 to 15 years of coverage. I guess to us, it seems like there might be an interesting supply-demand imbalance emerging on the Gulf Coast with the lack of material long-haul pipeline capacity from the Northeast and dwindling inventory from smaller privates in basins like the Haynesville but curious on your thoughts around the regional dynamics.

我想先提出一個可能更著重於中期展望的問題，具體內容請參考第 9 頁。我只是好奇您是否可以談談您在德克薩斯州、路易斯安那州和亞利桑那州週邊地區看到的天然氣需求變化，以及您的下游交易對手是否開始意識到像您這樣的生產商可以為需要 10 到 15 年期限的合約帶來哪些價值。我認為，由於東北部缺乏足夠的長途管道運輸能力，以及像海恩斯維爾盆地這樣的小型私營企業的庫存不斷減少，墨西哥灣沿岸似乎正在出現有趣的供需失衡現象。我很想聽聽您對區域動態的看法。

Yes. Great question, Matt. I'll start, and I'm sure Dan will have more to add here. Slide 9 is a new slide, our team created this quarter, and we really like it. It shows the current demand and then the expected growth in demand in each of the interesting growing submarkets of the U.S. And so what we've created here is a way to think about where demand is growing along the Gulf Coast, including onshore Louisiana as well as LNG in Appalachia and then in other key markets like the Southeast and Florida.

是的。問得好，馬特。我先來，我相信丹還會補充更多內容。第 9 張投影片是我們團隊本季製作的新投影片，我們非常喜歡它。它顯示了美國各個新興細分市場的當前需求以及預期需求成長。因此，我們在這裡創建了一種思考墨西哥灣沿岸（包括路易斯安那州陸上地區）以及阿巴拉契亞地區的液化天然氣市場和其他主要市場（如東南部和佛羅裡達州）的需求成長的方法。

And I think you're right to point out that as demand for gas is growing and growing in a really tangible way, we have more insight into how gas demand is growing right now than we've had in a very long time. These projects are multiyear projects. They require billions of dollars of capital, and you can see it coming. And so we can plan for this, and we can be ready to help work with our customers to deliver the solutions that they need. I think this is a great -- the Lake Charles Methanol transaction we announced here, is a great case study for how this works.

我認為你指出天然氣需求正在以非常實際的方式增長，這一點是正確的，我們現在對天然氣需求的增長情況的了解比很長一段時間以來都要深入。這些項目都是多年期項目。他們需要數十億美元的資金，這一點顯而易見。因此，我們可以為此做好計劃，並做好準備，與客戶合作，提供他們所需的解決方案。我認為這很棒——我們在這裡宣布的萊克查爾斯甲醇交易就是一個很好的案例，說明了這種模式是如何運作的。

And is evidence of exactly what you just described. This is a project that Lake Charles Methanol is going to be a new demand facility built along with the offtake customers supporting the facility, so requesting the methanol product, it's in need around the world. That offtake has been fully subscribed. They need to lock down the economics of the project to go out and get the project FID-ed. The supply of gas is a really important element of that.

這正是你剛才所描述的情況的證據。這是 Lake Charles Methanol 的一個項目，它將建造一個新的需求設施，並配備相應的承購客戶來支援該設施，以滿足世界各地對甲醇產品的需求。該批訂單已全部售出。他們需要確定專案的經濟效益，才能最終獲得專案的最終投資決定 (FID)。天然氣供應是其中非常重要的一個因素。

They look to us with our depth of supply and inventory to drill, our ability to bring large volumes to South Louisiana, and then for those volumes to have a low carbon intensity. And they were wanting to lock that up for 15 years. And so we were in a position to accommodate that.

他們指望我們憑藉充足的供應和庫存進行鑽探，憑藉我們向路易斯安那州南部輸送大量原油的能力，並且希望這些原油的碳排放強度低。他們想把這件事封存15年。因此，我們有能力滿足這項需求。

I think this idea that gas demand, especially new gas demand growth needs to have clarity as to where the supply will come from. The depth of that supply, the characteristics of it, the credit quality of the counterparty providing it, all of those things need to come together in a bundled solution that we're uniquely positioned to do in this transaction, and we believe we'll be in a unique position to do across many transactions in the future. So it's a good example of what we think is plenty to come.

我認為，對於天然氣需求，尤其是新增天然氣需求，需要明確供應來源。供應的深度、供應的特點、提供供應的交易對手的信用質量，所有這些因素都需要在一個綜合解決方案中結合起來，而我們在此次交易中擁有獨特的優勢來做到這一點，我們相信，在未來的許多交易中，我們也將擁有獨特的優勢來做到這一點。所以，這很好地展現了我們認為未來將會湧現的眾多趨勢。

Matt, you hit on an interesting dynamic at the start of your question that I'll just add to you is that demand is growing in South Louisiana and our portfolio sets up well, especially where our asset base is, as Nick talked about, and our capacity to get there. And you said, where is the supply coming from and the challenge from associated basins? And we agree that there's going to be a lot of supply that comes out of associated basin, especially the Permian. But as you see pipelines being developed, the terminus of those pipelines end up in Texas.

馬特，你在問題開頭就提出了一個有趣的動態，我只想補充一點，那就是路易斯安那州南部的需求正在增長，而我們的投資組合配置良好，尤其是在我們的資產基礎所在地區，正如尼克所說，以及我們到達那裡的能力。你問，水源來自哪裡？相關盆地又面臨哪些挑戰？我們一致認為，相關盆地，特別是二疊紀盆地，將會有大量的石油供應。但正如你所看到的，管道正在建設中，這些管道的終點都通往德克薩斯州。

And so getting across that border from Texas, Louisiana is a bit of a challenge. It will happen, but it takes a longer time, obviously, with interstate pipelines, it's a longer build to get across that border. And so we set up quite nice to where our demand ends at the end of our NG3 and LEAP pipeline into Gillis. And where customers are looking for that security of supply, as Nick touched about. So it is an interesting dynamic about where demand is growing and how it's actually going to get supplied from the different regions across the basins.

因此，從德克薩斯州越過路易斯安那州的邊界有點困難。這肯定會發生，但顯然需要更長的時間，因為州際管道的建設需要更長的時間才能跨越邊境。因此，我們的佈局非常合理，我們的需求最終會到達通往吉利斯的 NG3 和 LEAP 管道的末端。正如尼克提到的那樣，客戶正在尋求供應保障。因此，需求成長點在哪裡，以及流域內不同地區將如何實際供應這些需求，這是一個有趣的動態。

Great. And then just as a quick follow-up. Nick, curious if you might be willing to comment on your views around the evolution of mid-cycle gas prices. I guess specifically, as we kind of look at the Haynesville or regionally in Louisiana, you're projecting about 11 Bcf a day of demand growth regionally. And I think most forecasts even with really robust gas prices, I expect maybe the Haynesville can grow 6 to 8 Bcf before starting to face some pretty significant inventory challenges. So you all are kind of in a unique position given the depth of your inventory.

偉大的。然後，我再快速補充一點。Nick，我很好奇你是否願意就中期天然氣價格的演變發表一些看法。我想具體來說，當我們觀察海恩斯維爾或路易斯安那州的區域情況時，預計該地區每天的需求增長約為 110 億立方英尺。而且我認為大多數預測都認為，即使天然氣價格非常強勁，海恩斯維爾的天然氣儲量在開始面臨相當嚴重的庫存挑戰之前，可能只能增加 60 億至 80 億立方英尺。鑑於你們庫存的深度，你們都處於一種比較獨特的地位。

I guess, bringing this back to Slide 7, you highlight kind of maximizing free cash flow at a kind of 8.25 Bcf a day production level would require kind of a $4.50 gas price over the medium term. But I think if you go all keep pace with the Haynesville growth moving forward, your corporate production would be in excess of that.

我想，回到投影片 7，您強調，在日產量達到 82.5 億立方英尺的情況下，要最大限度地提高自由現金流，中期內需要 4.50 美元的天然氣價格。但我認為，如果你能跟上海恩斯維爾未來的發展步伐，你的公司產量將會超過這個數字。

So Nick, maybe just specifically curious as you get more comfort around this regional demand growth trend and the Haynesville being part of the production engine that meets that demand, how do you think about the mid-cycle gas price? And is that right-hand side of the chart kind of closer to that $4.50 level, a good place to be thinking about? Or are there other factors that are involved?

所以尼克，也許我只是特別好奇，隨著你對這種區域需求增長趨勢以及海恩斯維爾作為滿足這種需求的生產引擎的一部分越來越有信心，你如何看待週期中期的汽油價格？圖表右側的區域是否更接近 4.50 美元的水平？這是一個值得考慮的好位置嗎？或者還有其他因素在起作用？

Yes, it's a great question, Matt. At this point, we're still focused actually on the columns of the chart that we've highlighted there, $3.50 to $4, centering on $3.75. There's so many unknowns to how this will all evolve and we think taking a measured approach to how we set up our supply in the context of the broader U.S. market that is now increasingly connected to the global market is the right answer. I do believe that over time that our view of mid-cycle prices can go higher. I don't think we're quite there yet. I think there's a lot to still happen with the timing of how this demand will grow.

是的，馬特，你問得好。目前，我們仍專注於圖表中已標示的3.50美元至4美元區間，中心價位為3.75美元。未來發展趨勢有許多未知因素，我們認為，在與全球市場聯繫日益緊密的美國市場背景下，採取穩健的方式來建構我們的供應體係才是正確的做法。我相信隨著時間的推移，我們對週期中期價格的看法可能會更高。我覺得我們還沒完全達到目標。我認為這種需求成長的時間節點還有很多變數。

You'll see some of the numbers that are on this Slide 9 that we put out today are a bit more conservative than many other forecasters in the market. We're pretty -- I would say, I guess, conservative is the right word around how we think about the pace at which this demand will grow.

你會發現，我們今天發布的第 9 張投影片上的一些數字比市場上許多其他預測者要保守一些。我們相當——我想，用「保守」來形容我們對這種需求成長速度的看法或許比較貼切。

I think it's important to note, though, that when we talk about all of this stuff, this slide is framing between now and 2030. 2030 being the end of the decade is a point in time that the market has become focused on we don't believe demand growth stops in 2030 by any stretch. And so our view relative to some of the other more aggressive views of demand growth is really a difference in timing more than it is anything. There's a lot of bottlenecks to create all of this demand growth.

不過，我認為需要指出的是，當我們討論所有這些內容時，這張投影片所指的是從現在到 2030 年這段時間。 2030 年是十年的結束，是市場關注的時間點，但我們絕不認為需求成長會在 2030 年停止。因此，我們相對於其他一些更激進的需求成長觀點，實際上更多的是時機上的差異，而不是其他方面的差異。要實現所有這些需求成長，存在許多瓶頸。

And so we think while it is big, it is very meaningful and there will be supply constraints to deliver to certain of these markets at certain times, there's going to be a lot of volatility around it. And we're ready for that volatility. I think our business is uniquely positioned with the geographic diversity we have with our approach to being willing and proven to modulate supply up and down. We're, again, really ready to take on the challenge of this volatility and help our customers have the surety of supply that they need with the characteristics of supply they expect.

因此，我們認為雖然規模很大，意義也很重大，但在某些時候向某些市場交付產品會受到供應限制，而且市場波動性也會很大。我們已經做好了應對這種波動的準備。我認為，憑藉我們地理上的多樣性以及我們願意且已被證明能夠靈活調節供應量的做法，我們的業務擁有獨特的優勢。我們再次做好了充分準備，迎接這種波動性的挑戰，幫助我們的客戶獲得他們所需的、具有他們所期望的供應特性的供應保障。

Operator And our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

操作員：我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Doug Leggate。

Nick, I wonder if I could hit two things. First of all, there's been a lot of moving parts, obviously, in the cash flow capacity of the portfolio. So I'm really focused on where you think your breakeven is trending with the continued synergy delivery. More importantly, you've dropped your sustaining capital by, it looks like $150 million, which that alone is pretty meaningful in your stock. So where do you see your breakeven today? Where do you see it trending?

尼克，我想知道我能不能擊中兩樣東西。首先，很明顯，投資組合的現金流能力受到許多因素的影響。所以我非常關注您認為在持續綜效下，您的損益平衡點會呈現怎樣的趨勢。更重要的是，你的維持資本似乎減少了 1.5 億美元，這本身對你的股票影響就相當大了。那麼，你認為你目前的損益平衡點在哪裡？你覺得它會在哪裡流行？

And I guess my follow-up, forgive me for this, I kind of asked it fairly regularly, but you've given a lot of insight into the role or the impact that Dan and his team are having. Where would you see the -- what kind of innings are you in, if you like, in terms of the marketing uplift? And if you can quantify how do you see your realization has been impacted by that, that would be great. So those are my two, please.

我想繼續問一個問題，請原諒，我之前也經常問這個問題，但您對丹和他的團隊所扮演的角色或產生的影響有很多獨到的見解。您認為就行銷提升而言，您目前處於什麼階段？如果你能量化說明你的認知是如何受到這種影響的，那就太好了。這就是我的兩個問題。

Okay. Great. I love talking about this, obviously, Doug. So the capital efficiency that our business is showcasing right now is tremendous. And we're beating our own expectations, beating the synergy goals we laid out at the onset of the merger and then, again, making faster progress towards reducing costs and increasing productivity across our entire portfolio. That's driving our breakevens lower.

好的。偉大的。當然，我很樂意談論這個話題，道格。因此，我們公司目前展現出的資本效率非常驚人。我們不僅超越了自己的預期，也超越了合併之初所製定的綜效目標，而且在降低成本和提高整個業務組合的生產力方面也取得了更快的進展。這導致我們的損益平衡點降低。

Importantly, we're talking about this morning the fact that our 2026 setup looks even better. We had said at the beginning of this year that we wanted to set up our productive capacity for 2026 to be 7.5 Bcf a day. That is what we are positioned to deliver. We can hold that level of production through 2026 and going forward with a very similar CapEx profile to what we have this year. So $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion in CapEx is the right way to think about what we're setting up for in 2026.

重要的是，我們今天早上討論的是，我們的 2026 年計劃看起來會更好。今年年初我們曾說過，我們希望在 2026 年將產能設定為每天 75 億立方英尺。這就是我們能夠做到的。我們可以保持目前的生產水準到 2026 年及以後，資本支出情況與今年非常相似。因此，28億至29億美元的資本支出是思考我們為2026年所做的準備的正確方法。

Now lots of things could change between now and when we actually go through '26. So what we determine is the right level of activity and the right level of production based on market conditions will undoubtedly change, and that's the flexibility that we've been excited to build into our business and embrace. But that capital efficiency is what we want to highlight by showing that we can deliver that level of production with about the same amount of CapEx that we had this year.

從現在到我們真正經歷 2026 年，很多事情都可能會改變。因此，我們根據市場情況確定的適當活動水平和適當生產水平無疑會發生變化，而這正是我們一直致力於在業務中構建和擁抱的靈活性。但我們想強調的是資本效率，透過證明我們可以用與今年大致相同的資本支出來實現同樣的產量水準。

So what that means is that these improvements in our cost structure alongside the productivity are sustaining, and we're going to hold those going forward. We're pretty excited about all of that.

這意味著，我們在成本結構和生產力方面的這些改進是可持續的，我們將繼續保持這些優勢。我們對此感到非常興奮。

As to your question about what inning we're in with how we're seeing the uplift of marketing. I guess I would say we're still in pre-game warm-ups to keep the analogy going with baseball here. This is a very newly emerging part of our business that we are putting resources behind and giving a mandate to this team that is a highly effective team that we can let go out and create more value than historically they've been positioned to do inside of a company that was of lower scale and not investment grade. So with the tools that this company has now around what is a talented organization, we can go out and do so much more. And this Lake Charles Methanol transaction is the first example.

至於你問的關於我們目前處於行銷提升的哪個階段的問題。我想說，為了繼續用棒球作比喻，我們現在還處於賽前暖身階段。這是我們業務中一個非常新興的領域，我們正在投入資源並賦予這個高效的團隊使命感，讓他們能夠創造比以往在規模較小、非投資級別的公司內部所能創造的更大的價值。所以，憑藉公司目前擁有的資源和優秀的人才隊伍，我們可以做更多的事情。而這筆查爾斯湖甲醇交易就是第一個例子。

Nick, can I pin you down just on one specific, are you under $3 now in your breakeven?

尼克，我可以問你一個具體問題嗎？你現在的損益平衡點低於 3 美元嗎？

Yes, Doug, we are. We've made a ton of progress on our breakeven. Of course, the merger was really a key catalyst for that. But we think if we were to go back kind of premerger in 2024 to where we are, as we see the setup for 2026, we're over $0.15 improvement in a breakeven and sitting well below $3.

是的，道格，我們是。我們在實現損益平衡方面取得了巨大進展。當然，合併確實是促成這項結果的關鍵催化劑。但我們認為，如果我們回到 2024 年合併前的狀態，按照我們對 2026 年的展望，我們的損益平衡點將提高 0.15 美元以上，並且遠低於 3 美元。

And our next question comes from the line of Betty Jiang, Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

I really appreciate all the color that you're laying out, Slide 9 and 10 on just growing the gas marketing opportunity. If I can just ask about what it specifically means for your gas realization over time. The methanol deal is obviously helping in the 2030s and beyond. But the opportunities that you see, do you see your gas realization and this just narrowing over time as you start capturing all these opportunities?

我非常欣賞您在投影片 9 和 10 中對擴大汽油行銷機會所做的精彩闡述。我可以問一下，這對您隨著時間的推移實現氣體排放究竟意味著什麼？甲醇交易顯然對2030年代及以後的發展有所幫助。但是，你看到的機遇，你是否看到了你的天然氣實現情況，以及隨著你開始抓住所有這些機遇，這種情況會隨著時間的推移而逐漸縮小？

Yes, Betty, it's a great question. We do expect to add a lot of margin through our marketing business. There's so many elements of this, and Dan will add to my answer here, but we'll optimize the delivery of every molecule that we sell today across our extensive firm transportation portfolio in all the markets we reach. We'll aggregate supply and create value off that aggregation. And we'll continue to connect to customers that need surety of supply and work with them around the reliability and flexibility that they require. I think you get paid for the combination of all of those things that we bring to the table.

是的，貝蒂，這是一個很好的問題。我們預計透過行銷業務可以增加很多利潤。這其中涉及很多方面，丹會補充我的回答，但我們會優化我們今天銷售的每一種分子的交付，透過我們廣泛的公司運輸組合，涵蓋我們所涉足的所有市場。我們將整合供應，並從中創造價值。我們將繼續與需要穩定供應的客戶保持聯繫，並與他們合作，滿足他們所需的可靠性和靈活性。我認為你得到的報酬是我們所貢獻的所有這些因素綜合起來的結果。

Betty, thanks for that question. I'd just add to that, the two elements we're really focused on right now is that optimization that Nick talked about. The team has already done a great job this year of being able to optimize our portfolio. We start from a great position with our asset base and our transportation portfolio. And our team is being able to optimize across different markets, across geography and across different time with storage and different assets we have to be able to create realizations that are meaningful. We've already taken tens of millions of dollars -- low tens of million dollars and added that to our realizations and just expect to do more over time.

貝蒂，謝謝你的提問。我還要補充一點，我們現在真正關注的兩個面向就是尼克提到的優化。今年團隊在優化投資組合方面已經做得非常出色了。我們擁有雄厚的資產基礎和運輸業務組合，處於非常有利的地位。我們的團隊能夠跨越不同的市場、地理和時間，利用儲存和不同的資產進行最佳化，從而創造有意義的成果。我們已經投入了數千萬美元——數千萬美元，並將這些資金計入我們的收益中，我們預計隨著時間的推移，收益還會增加。

And then that LCM example is a great example of how we can be differentiated, offer customer solutions. You pointed to Slide 10, that gives some of our guiding principles of how we think about these deals and what we're looking to accomplish and different elements of these -- of value chain creation. In LCM, for example, we hit a majority of these elements. And we have a tons of inbounds right now and plenty of conversations going on where we can do a lot more of these deals and create a lot more value for the corporation.

而 LCM 的例子很好地說明了我們如何脫穎而出，為客戶提供解決方案。您提到了第 10 張投影片，其中列出了我們思考這些交易的一些指導原則，以及我們希望實現的目標和價值鏈創造的不同要素。例如，在 LCM 中，我們遇到了這些要素中的大多數。我們現在有很多潛在客戶，也有很多洽談正在進行，我們可以達成更多這樣的交易，為公司創造更多價值。

That's great. Very exciting developments there. And then my follow-up is just on the M&A side, the resource expansion that you highlighted, both the Appalachia and the Western Haynesville. Maybe bigger picture, what are you looking to achieve with these type of bolt-on/small deals? Do you see more resource opportunities and similar type of deal to acquire locations at a low cost?

那太棒了。那方面進展非常令人振奮。然後我的後續問題就集中在併購方面，也就是您提到的資源擴張，包括阿巴拉契亞地區和西海恩斯維爾地區。從更宏觀的角度來看，您希望透過這類附加/小型交易實現什麼目標？您是否看到更多資源獲取機會以及類似的低成本收購地塊的交易？

Yes. Betty, this is Josh. I would maybe characterize the two acquisitions of organic leasehold in two different ways. The acquisition in the Southwest App was purely opportunistic. That's clearly highly synergistic with our existing acreage position. It allows us to extend lateral lengths, almost more than double lateral lengths, which gives us an opportunity to pull forward inventory and simply improve the overall return profile there.

是的。貝蒂，這是喬許。我可能會用兩種不同的方式來描述這兩個有機租賃權的收購。收購西南航空應用程式純粹是出於機會主義。這顯然與我們現有的土地面積具有高度協同效應。它使我們能夠延長橫向長度，幾乎延長一倍以上，這給了我們提前提取庫存並改善整體退貨情況的機會。

And in the Western Haynesville, that's -- we think about that a little bit differently. That's something we've been studying for a number of years now, and have been very thoughtful about what an entry might look like. We wanted to get in at a low cost.

而在西部的海恩斯維爾，我們對此的看法略有不同。這是我們多年來一直在研究的問題，我們一直在認真思考參賽作品應該是什麼樣子。我們想以低成本進入。

We want to ensure there was limited near-term obligations. And we are also looking for a part of the play that we would see as being lower from a geologic complexity standpoint. And we think we've done that with the 75,000-acre position that we've created. And as we think about that going forward, we simply see that as a great option for the company to be able to develop a resource with a tremendous upside in an area where we see growing demand.

我們希望確保近期債務負擔有限。我們也正在尋找從地質複雜性角度來看難度較低的油氣藏部分。我們認為，憑藉我們所創造的這75,000英畝的土地，我們已經實現了這一目標。展望未來，我們認為這對公司來說是一個很好的選擇，可以在一個需求不斷增長的領域中開發具有巨大發展潛力的資源。

And so we'll continue to be mindful of these opportunities as they appear. But of course, we're always going to be sticking to our M&A non-negotiables with any transaction that we evaluate.

因此，我們將繼續密切關注這些機會的出現。當然，對於我們評估的任何交易，我們始終堅持我們的併購不可談判原則。

And our next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy, Pickering Energy Partners.

下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

Kind of sticking with the Western Haynesville. I mean, it sounds like you've already drilled a vertical well there, and you did some leasing maybe before this last acquisition. Can you kind of expand on what you saw in that vertical well and what was attractive about this particular area of the Western Haynesville?

還是堅持用西海恩斯維爾語。我的意思是，聽起來你們已經在那裡鑽了一口垂直井，而且在最近這次收購之前可能還進行了一些租賃活動。您能否詳細介紹一下您在那口垂直井中看到了什麼，以及西海恩斯維爾地區的這個特定區域有哪些吸引您的地方？

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. Happy to address that. We've been, again, studying this for some time. And so we have a pretty extensive data set across the entire region, just given our 1.5 decades of experience here. And so we've been very thoughtful about integrating new production data as that came available from some of the developments further to the west, incorporating that in and calibrating our models. And then with the vertical well, that was, of course, pretty important for us to serve as a good final validation of the resource potential that we saw.

是的。謝謝你，凱文。樂意解答這個問題。我們已經研究這個問題一段時間了。因此，憑藉我們在這裡 15 年的經驗，我們擁有覆蓋整個地區的相當廣泛的數據集。因此，我們非常認真地將來自西部一些地區的最新生產數據整合到我們的模型中，並對其進行校準。當然，垂直井對我們來說非常重要，它可以作為我們所看到的資源潛力的最終驗證。

And what we found is a thick, very dense shale reservoir that we think presents tremendous upside. It has a lot of characteristics that we're accustomed to developing in areas like the NFZ and our southern portion of the Louisiana play. And that really kind of met all the requirements that we would think about to support future development.

我們發現了一個厚實、密度極高的頁岩儲層，我們認為它具有巨大的增值潛力。它具有我們在禁區和路易斯安那州南部地區等地習慣開發的許多特徵。這基本上滿足了我們為支持未來發展所能想到的所有要求。

But I would just note, though, for the company specifically, this is something that we still see is carrying some level of uncertainty with it. And I think that really goes for the entire Western Haynesville area. Long-term decline is something that we definitely need to monitor. And I think the advantage that we have in the play is that with 20 years of inventory in Louisiana, we can definitely be measured in our approach. We'll drill our first horizontal production well here later in the fourth quarter. But really, we'll need time as we head into 2026 to further assess that.

但我想指出的是，就公司而言，這件事仍然存在一定程度的不確定性。我認為這確實適用於整個海恩斯維爾西部地區。長期衰退是我們絕對需要關注的問題。我認為我們在這場競爭中的優勢在於，我們在路易斯安那州累積了 20 年的經驗，這讓我們在策略上更有把握。我們將在第四季度晚些時候在這裡鑽探第一口水平生產井。但實際上，我們需要時間，在邁入 2026 年之際，對此進行進一步評估。

But again, the resource potential is quite high. We like the option that it creates. And again, given the depth of the inventory, we're going to be very measured in our approach to how we develop it going forward.

但再次強調，資源潛力相當高。我們喜歡它所提供的這種選擇。再次強調，鑑於庫存深度，我們今後在開發上將採取非常謹慎的態度。

Great. I appreciate the detail on that. And as a follow-up, kind of moving back to the core Haynesville, and it looks like a lot of the CapEx savings and even outperformance on the production side has come from the Haynesville. What are the most notable differences between your expectations coming into the year on the drilling and completing of the wells? And you kind of mentioned in your earlier remarks that you think you're doing wells significantly cheaper than peers, without giving away your secrets, do you know what you're doing different that is causing that well cost saving?

偉大的。感謝您提供的詳細資訊。作為後續，我們回到核心的海恩斯維爾，看起來很多資本支出節省，甚至生產方面的超額收益都來自海恩斯維爾。今年年初您對鑽井和完井的預期與實際情況相比，最顯著的差異是什麼？您在先前的演講中提到，您認為您的油井成本比同行低得多。在不透露秘訣的前提下，您知道您做了哪些不同的事情，從而節省了油井成本嗎？

Well, one of the things that has helped us, of course, is just putting two teams together, where we've been able to leverage the experience of two companies. And I think the drilling improvements that we've experienced over the last year I think, have just exceeded all of our expectations and really a credit to our employees and to our contractors that help support that. And so we continue to make strides. And I would say the most material cost improvements that we've made and where we see differentiated performance is on the drilling side.

當然，對我們有幫助的事情之一就是將兩個團隊合併在一起，這樣我們就能利用兩家公司的經驗。我認為，過去一年我們在鑽井技術方面取得的進步，已經超出了我們所有人的預期，這真的要歸功於我們的員工和幫助我們的承包商。因此，我們不斷取得進步。我認為，我們在材料成本方面取得的最大改進以及我們看到差異化性能的地方在於鑽井方面。

But also, I think I would like to talk about completions just for a little bit there because there's really two components to it. Of course, we made an investment in our own sand mine, which I think is a unique opportunity for us because of the scale of program that we run, where we're going to be pretty consistent in running anywhere from 2 to 4 frac crews. And so we can go make that investment. It pays out in just over a year's time and has a material impact on our well cost.

另外，我想稍微談談完成度，因為它實際上包含兩個方面。當然，我們投資建造了自己的砂礦，我認為這對我們來說是一個獨特的機會，因為我們營運的專案規模很大，我們將穩定地運作 2 到 4 個壓裂作業團隊。所以我們可以進行這項投資。它只需一年多一點的時間就能收回成本，並對我們的油井成本產生實質影響。

And then when you combine that lower source of sand or lower completion cost, that also now presents an opportunity to where we can be a little bit more thoughtful about our proppant intensity on the wells that we're completing. And so through the merger integration, we knew that the two companies had different approaches to completion design in terms of both fluid and proppant intensity.

然後，當砂源減少或完井成本降低時，這也為我們提供了一個機會，讓我們能夠更認真地考慮我們正在完井的油井的支撐劑用量。因此，透過合併整合，我們知道兩家公司在完井設計方面，無論是在流體強度或支撐劑強度方面，都有不同的方法。

And so through the integration, we landed on what we would consider kind of our Gen 1 as expand completion design, and we quickly put that into place at merger close. And I would say, even through that Gen 1 design, we've seen improvements in productivity in some of our fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025 TILs. So that's helped contribute.

因此，透過整合，我們最終確定了我們所謂的第一代擴展完成設計，並在合併完成後迅速將其付諸實施。而且我想說，即使是第一代設計，我們在 2025 年第四季和第一季的 TIL 中也看到了生產力的提高。所以這也起了一定的作用。

We've quickly continued to progress that to a Gen 2 design that we implemented in the earlier parts of the year with those wells coming online in the second and third quarter. Those two have been outperforming our expectations. And we're already now moving on to the Gen 3, where we continue to see kind of outsized performance from these wells. So you've seen the productivity trends. We think there's still more upside to be had within that, and we're very excited to be able to talk more about that in the coming quarters.

我們迅速推進了第二代設計，並在今年稍早實施了該設計，這些油井在第二季和第三季投入營運。這兩位球員的表現都超出了我們的預期。我們現在已經進入第三代，這些油井繼續展現出超乎尋常的性能。所以你已經了解生產力趨勢了。我們認為這方面還有更大的發展空間，我們非常期待在接下來的幾季中就此展開更多討論。

And our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Yes. And Nick, it's great to see the capital efficiency improvement. And that kind of sets up my question for -- as you think about '26, is it fair to say that the CapEx, all else equal, should be relatively flat '26 versus '25? And what are some moving pieces as you think about the soft guide for next year?

是的。尼克，很高興看到資金效率的提升。這就引出了我的問題——當你考慮 2026 年時，是否可以說，在其他條件相同的情況下，2026 年的資本支出應該與 2025 年相比保持相對穩定？在考慮明年的軟性指南時，有哪些需要考慮的因素？

Yes. I think that's exactly the right message, Neil, is that you should think about the same CapEx profile for next year, same dollar amount. The moving pieces, of course, are just going to be the market conditions. So again, one of the things we're really pleased within our business is our willingness and ability to be flexible in how we allocate capital and how we view production within a given year. So we're ready for anything the year throws at us. And obviously, gas markets have been pretty volatile through the summer being pretty soft even through the third quarter. Production has been pretty high.

是的。我認為尼爾，你傳達的訊息完全正確，那就是你應該考慮明年採用同樣的資本支出方案，金額也應該相同。當然，影響因素只有市場狀況。所以，我們公司真正感到滿意的一點是，我們願意並且能夠靈活地分配資本，並靈活地看待特定年份的生產。所以我們已經做好準備，迎接今年可能出現的任何挑戰。顯然，整個夏季汽油市場波動較大，即使到了第三季也相當疲軟。產量一直很高。

The '26 setup is different. It looks like we have some pretty significant structural demand growth that should outpace supply for most of the year. But by the end of the year, you've got some Permian pipes coming on in size, and that will again change the dynamic. So we're ready for that volatility and we're ready to be flexible.

'26 的配置有所不同。看來我們面臨相當顯著的結構性需求成長，這種成長在今年大部分時間裡應該會超過供應。但到今年年底，一些二疊紀地函柱的規模將會逐漸增大，這將再次改變局勢。所以我們已經做好了應對這種波動的準備，我們願意靈活應對。

Yes. Nick, and then the follow-up is just the update on hedge the wedge. The curve looks really good here for 2026 and even into '27. And so how are you thinking about continuing to execute that program? And it backwardates pretty decently as you get it from '28 to 2030, and I know there's less liquidity. So I'm guessing 8 quarters rolling forward is still the right framework, but just your latest thoughts there.

是的。尼克，接下來的內容就是對沖楔子的最新進展。從目前的情況來看，2026 年甚至 2027 年的曲線都非常好。那麼，您打算如何繼續執行該計劃？而且從 2028 年到 2030 年，它的逆向收益率相當不錯，我知道流動性也比較少。所以我猜想，以8個季度為週期向前滾動仍然是正確的框架，但這只是你最新的想法。

Yes, Neil, this is Brittany. And you're right, we're going to maintain that disciplined approach to commodity risk management that includes layering on those hedge positions over a rolling 8-quarter period. And really, that strategy is focused on adding that downside protection, while also affording significant upside participation. And I think this year is a really great example of the effectiveness of that strategy. If you think about the second and third quarters, we had around $165 million of cash inflows from our hedges. So that's really great to see that downside protection in action.

是的，尼爾，這是布列塔尼。你說得對，我們將繼續保持這種嚴謹的商品風險管理方法，包括在滾動的 8 個季度期間逐步增加對沖頭寸。實際上，該策略的重點在於增加下行保護，同時提供顯著的上行參與機會。我認為今年就是這項策略有效性的絕佳例證。如果回顧第二季和第三季度，我們從對沖交易中獲得了約 1.65 億美元的現金流入。看到這種下行保護機制發揮作用，真是太好了。

And as we look to '26, we're about 47% hedged. Collars are about 75% of that book. And in '27, we've already initiated our position just under 15% hedged. So even with a bullish outlook, we believe it's prudent to continue to layer on downside protection and the benefit that we have is with our fundamentals team. We have great market insight to proactively manage that book once those positions are layered on. So we're going to lean in when we see opportunities in the market and consistently add to that position.

展望 2026 年，我們的對沖覆蓋率約為 47%。這本書裡大約有 75% 的內容是關於項圈的。2027 年，我們已經建立了近 15% 的對沖部位。因此，即使前景看漲，我們也認為繼續加強下行保護是明智之舉，而我們的優勢在於我們的基本面團隊。我們擁有敏銳的市場洞察力，能夠在這些部位建立之後積極主動地管理該投資組合。所以，一旦發現市場機會，我們就會積極掌握，並持續增加股份。

And our next question comes from the line of Zach Parham, JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Zach Parham。

First, just wanted to follow up on Kevin's question. You took your D&C costs down in the Haynesville and expect those to move even lower in 2026. Can you just talk about the factors pushing those costs lower? Is that mostly efficiency gains that you factored in, in 2026? Or is there some level of OFS deflation built into those numbers?

首先，我想就凱文的問題做個後續說明。您在海恩斯維爾降低了刮除手術的費用，並預計到 2026 年這些費用會進一步降低。能談談降低這些成本的因素嗎？您在2026年考慮的主要是效率提升嗎？或者說，這些數字中是否已經包含了一定程度的OFS通貨緊縮？

Zach, really, this is going to be driven by efficiency improvements. As we assess the OFS market and just think about where activity trends are potentially heading in 2026. We would expect the OFS markets to be relatively stable year-over-year from '25 to '26. And so we're really just thinking about how do we continue to strengthen our business improve our operational performance and continue to build upon all the success that we had in 2025.

扎克，說真的，這最終將由效率提升來驅動。當我們評估OFS市場並思考2026年活動趨勢的潛在方向。我們預計從 2025 年到 2026 年，OFS 市場將維持相對穩定的年比水準。因此，我們真正思考的是，如何繼續加強我們的業務，提高我們的營運績效，並在我們2025年取得的所有成功的基礎上繼續發展。

Zachary Parham JPMorgan Chase & Co And then my follow-up, just on your macro views in general. You've mentioned flexibility and you've got this productive capacity sitting here. As we sit here today, would you expect to be back at 7.5 Bcfe a day in January? And maybe just talk about the flexibility you have on when you bring those volumes to market and kind of how you think about that?

Zachary Parham 摩根大通公司 然後，我的後續問題是，關於您對宏觀經濟的總體看法。您提到了靈活性，而且您在這裡也擁有這種生產能力。就目前情況來看，您認為1月日均產量能恢復到7.5 Bcfe嗎？或許可以談談你們在何時將這些產品推向市場方面的靈活性，以及​​你們是如何考慮這個問題的？

Yes. So right now, as we look at the setup, as we exit the year, we do have the ability to be at 7.5 Bcf a day, pretty early in 2026. But like we've demonstrated in the past, we're always going to be responsive to market conditions. Our goal is to always be thoughtful about how we shape our production, and that should be in alignment with how we see demand rolling out as well. And so we expect to average 7.5 Bcf a day across 2026, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to simply just be flat. As demand pushes higher or if we happen to see market weakness, we're always going to be in a position to exercise flexibility and push volumes higher or be lower. But again, the target for next year across the year will be 7.5 Bcf a day.

是的。所以現在，當我們審視目前的情況時，到今年年底，我們有能力在 2026 年初達到每天 75 億立方英尺的天然氣產量。但正如我們過去所證明的那樣，我們將始終對市場狀況做出反應。我們的目標始終是認真思考如何調整生產方式，而這種方式也應該與我們對市場需求走向的判斷一致。因此，我們預計到 2026 年平均每天的天然氣產量將達到 75 億立方英尺，但這並不一定意味著產量會保持不變。當需求增加或市場疲軟時，我們始終能夠靈活調整，提高或降低產量。但明年全年的目標仍是每天 75 億立方英尺。

And our next question comes from the line of Charles Meade, Johnson Rice.

我們的下一個問題來自查爾斯·米德和約翰遜·賴斯的後裔。

I want to ask a question on breakevens and go back to some of the -- I think, your prepared comments. I believe I heard you say in your prepared comments that your -- I think it was your company-wide breakeven is now $2.75. And I'm wondering if you could tell me if I heard that correctly. And also maybe remind us what the other important assumptions in that number are? And I'm thinking just two, off the top of my head, whether that includes location costs and if there's some minimum threshold return that's baked in that number also.

我想問一個關於盈虧平衡的問題，並回顧一下——我想——你事先準備好的一些評論。我記得您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，貴公司的損益平衡點現在是2.75美元。我想請您確認我是否聽得準確。或許還可以提醒我們一下，這個數字還包含哪些重要的假設呢？我腦海裡立刻浮現出兩個問題：一是是否包含地點成本；二是這個數字中是否也包含了最低報酬門檻。

Charles, this is Josh. So the $2.75 that you referenced is, shows up on Slide 12. I mean Nick did reference this in his prepared comments, but the $2.75 refers specifically to Haynesville. And so think about that as just simply an annual free cash flow breakeven for -- specifically for that asset. So obviously, it would include any corporate items such as the corporate dividend. But what I'd like to maybe just comment there, I mean, obviously, with improved productivity, reducing costs, that's a great combination that's going to pull down breakevens.

查爾斯，這是喬希。所以你提到的 2.75 美元，出現在第 12 張投影片。我的意思是，尼克在他的準備好的演講稿中確實提到了這一點，但 2.75 美元特指海恩斯維爾。因此，您可以將其簡單地理解為該資產的年度自由現金流損益平衡點。顯然，這其中會包括任何公司項目，例如公司股利。但我想補充一點，很明顯，提高生產效率、降低成本，這是一個很好的組合，可以降低損益平衡點。

Just as a point of reference, if we were to go back to where we initially guided on the company and specifically Haynesville back in February, we would have been sitting probably closer to $3. So we've seen that much improvements in the business to kind of be able to back out almost a quarter out of our breakeven just across the calendar year of 2025.

作為參考，如果我們回到 2 月我們對該公司，特別是 Haynesville 的最初指導價位，我們當時的預期可能接近 3 美元。因此，我們看到業務有瞭如此大的改善，以至於能夠在 2025 年全年將損益平衡點降低近四分之一。

Got it. That's great context. And then maybe this is a follow-up for you perhaps. The Western Haynesville horizontal that you're going to drill in 4Q, can you give us some framework for what success would look like there? What would get you more enthusiastic about the play? And perhaps as a follow-on to that bracket, what we should be thinking about for your activity there in '26?

知道了。這提供了很好的背景資訊。那麼，這或許對您來說是一個後續問題。您計劃在第四季度鑽探的西海恩斯維爾水平井，能否為我們介紹成功鑽探的標準？什麼能讓你對這部劇更有熱情？或許作為上述分組的後續討論，我們應該考慮您在 2026 年的活動安排？

Yes. I mean, first of all, we need to get this first well on the ground and assess the results before we start thinking about what might else occur in 2026. But to your first question, we've confirmed the geologic model. We have a good understanding of what the subsurface looks like. And so with the well, it's really first about kind of fine-tuning our operations of drilling in this part of the state. And then, of course, primarily, this is really centered around productivity and getting some early time data to kind of assess the overall reservoir performance. But obviously, we'll be monitoring this very closely to help better understand longer-term flow characteristics from the reservoir.

是的。我的意思是，首先，我們需要先把這第一個問題解決好，評估結果，然後再考慮 2026 年可能還會發生什麼事。但對於你的第一個問題，我們已經確認了地質模型。我們對地下結構的情況有很好的了解。因此，對於這口井來說，首先要做的就是微調我們在州內這一地區的鑽井作業。當然，最主要的還是圍繞著生產力展開，以及獲得一些早期數據來評估油藏的整體性能。但很顯然，我們將密切監測這種情況，以便更好地了解水庫的長期流動特性。

And our next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

I wanted to just follow up a bit on some of the color and planning around '26. I'm just curious if you could talk to the appraisal program for the Western Haynesville in '26. And really, I guess, how impactful you could see this asset becoming to your overall program in what time frame?

我想稍微補充一下關於 2026 年的一些色彩和規劃的內容。我只是好奇您是否可以和 2026 年西海恩斯維爾的評估項目談談。那麼，您認為這項資產在多大程度上能對您的整體計畫產生影響，以及需要多長時間才能實現？

Yes, David. So for next year, the soft guide that we've provided of $2.85 billion to deliver the 7.5 Bcf a day is inclusive of the appraisal CapEx that we have planned. So we're not, at this point, getting into the specific details of what all is included in that. But I think it's just important to reiterate that all the appraisal CapEx that we think we need is included in that $2.85 billion. And that really just speaks to the overall improvements that we've seen in capital efficiency through the course of the year.

是的，大衛。因此，我們給出的明年每日75億立方英尺天然氣供應量所需的28.5億美元的初步指導價包含了我們計劃的評估資本支出。所以，目前我們暫且不深入探討其中具體包含哪些內容。但我認為有必要重申，我們認為需要的所有評估資本支出都包含在這 28.5 億美元中。這確實反映了我們在過去一年中看到的資本效率的整體提升。

And I think at this point in time, it's just way too early to be speculating on what might this do to capital going forward. We're really just in the first inning there.

我認為現在就推測這會對未來的資本產生什麼影響還為時過早。我們現在真的才剛開始。

I appreciate that. And then maybe we could revisit just the LCM deal. I know without going into pricing terms, I'm curious just what merits of this deal sort of propelled you or motivated you to sign this one, why this agreement sort of makes sense versus perhaps some others like LNG or power-related contracts. I surmise you're trying to achieve a premium relative to what your forecast might be on 2030, but what was the general thought process or guidelines that you're using right now to sort of engage in some of these offtake agreements?

我很感激。然後或許我們可以重新檢視LCM的交易。我知道，在不談價格條款的情況下，我很好奇這項交易的哪些優點促使您簽署了這項協議，為什麼這項協議比其他一些協議（例如液化天然氣或電力相關合約）更有意義。我猜你是想獲得相對於你對 2030 年的預測的溢價，但是你現在在參與這些承購協議時所採用的總體思路或指導原則是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, David. I think Slide 10 is a great slide to lay out how we're thinking about these deals. And for Lake Charles Methanol specifically, hit -- majority of the elements you see on our guiding principles laid across this page. It was a deal that facilitated new demand and has committed offtake. So a huge win for us. It provides the customer their needs. It provides them reliability and flexibility. The genesis of this relationship is -- goes back to the heritage companies, heritage Chesapeake and heritage Southwestern, where they have a long-standing relationship with the principles of this project, ex-Cheniere guys. And so they understand the reliability and the reputation that we bring.

是的。謝謝你，大衛。我認為第 10 張投影片很好地闡述了我們如何考慮這些交易。而對於 Lake Charles Methanol 來說，它符合——您在此頁面上看到的我們指導原則的大部分要素。這項交易促進了新的需求，並已承諾承購。這對我們來說是一場巨大的勝利。它滿足了客戶的需求。它為它們提供了可靠性和靈活性。這種關係的起源可以追溯到歷史悠久的切薩皮克公司和西南公司，它們與本專案的主要負責人（前切尼爾公司員工）有著長期的合作關係。因此，他們了解我們所擁有的可靠性和聲譽。

And so they were looking for long-term security of supply. They were looking for a differentiated product. We can deliver the lower carbon intensity score product, and give them that flexibility. We have a baseload sale into them, but we also give them a bit of operational flexibility. So we can really manage their supply. So that leads us to achieving that premium price on that deal.

因此，他們所尋求的是長期的供應保障。他們當時在尋找一款與眾不同的產品。我們可以提供碳排放強度評分較低的產品，並賦予他們這種靈活性。我們向他們提供基本銷售合同，但也給予他們一定的營運彈性。這樣我們就能真正掌控他們的供應。所以，這就促成了我們最終以溢價成交。

As this deal opposed to other deals, we're taking a huge portfolio approach to this. We're looking at LNG deals. We're looking at power deals. We're looking at more industrial deals. But we're really taking it back to these guiding principles and how do they meet and create value for us as a corporation.

與以往的交易不同，我們對這筆交易採取了全面的投資組合策略。我們正在考察液化天然氣交易。我們正在研究電力交易。我們正在尋求更多工業領域的交易。但我們真正要回歸的是這些指導原則，以及它們如何滿足我們公司的需求並創造價值。

So at the moment, we have -- because of our position, because of our portfolio, we have a lot of conversations going on right now. We have something like 20, 25 different conversations going on across the LNG spectrum, across the power spectrum, across industry. And again, it comes back to that value creation and then risk reward of any deal we're looking at.

所以目前，由於我們的地位和投資組合，我們有很多對話正在進行中。我們目前在液化天然氣領域、電力領域、工業領域開展了約 20 到 25 場不同的對話。歸根結底，任何交易都取決於價值創造和風險回報。

And our next question comes from the line of John Annis, Texas Capital.

下一個問題來自德克薩斯資本的約翰·安尼斯。

For my first one, with over 2 Bcf of power and industrial demand growth expected along the Gulf Coast that you highlight on Slide 11. How should we think about the pace of leaning further into supply agreements like the one with LCM and the inbound interest you've noted. Just given you're one of the few with meaningful inventory depth in the Haynesville and with egress from Texas to Louisiana potentially constrained are you contemplating potentially being more patient with entering into future deals to let the gas on gas demand further materialize and accrue to your benefit?

我的第一個問題是，正如您在第 11 張幻燈片中重點提到的，預計墨西哥灣沿岸的電力和工業需求將增長超過 20 億立方英尺。我們應該如何看待進一步推進與 LCM 等供應商達成的供應協議的步伐，以及您提到的進口興趣？鑑於您是海恩斯維爾地區少數擁有大量庫存的公司之一，而且從德克薩斯州到路易斯安那州的出口可能會受到限制，您是否考慮在未來的交易中保持耐心，讓天然氣需求進一步實現並從中獲益？

Well, we're happy to be patient. And I think we're going to go back to the principles Dan just described in how we think about which deals we want to pursue, which customers we want to align with to provide long-term supply agreements. We're looking for those characteristics, again, that help to deliver a better business for our bottom line, higher revenue, we want lower volatility for our business. We're trying to set up customer relationships where we can help provide a service in addition to the commodity that we're providing in that it's uniquely reliable, flexible, and we can get paid a premium for that.

我們很樂意耐心等待。我認為，我們將回歸丹剛才所描述的原則，來思考我們想要追求哪些交易，想要與哪些客戶建立長期供應協議。我們再次尋找那些有助於提高公司獲利能力、增加收入、降低業務波動性的特性。我們正在努力建立一種客戶關係，在提供商品的同時，我們也能提供一種獨特可靠、靈活的服務，並因此獲得額外報酬。

When we think about the overall scope here of long-term agreements, this one is attractive to us because it doesn't require any balance sheet commitments and the price is floating. So if you're thinking about doing transactions, where there are balance sheet commitments associated with the transaction or you're changing your price characteristics, whether it be a fixed price or a collar price, you would think about the impacts those have on your portfolio. Those could be very attractive to you as well.

當我們考慮長期協議的整體範圍時，這個協議對我們來說很有吸引力，因為它不需要任何資產負債表承諾，而且價格是浮動的。因此，如果您正在考慮進行交易，而該交易涉及資產負債表承諾，或者您正在改變價格特徵（無論是固定價格還是區間價格），您就需要考慮這些對您的投資組合的影響。這些對你來說可能也很有吸引力。

And again, it will be a portfolio approach as to how we think about the balances here. But to put in place a structure like this where you're getting a premium to NYMEX, which, of course, NYMEX being the most liquid natural gas market in the world, we can hedge around that and manage that exposure proactively, we thought was a really good opportunity here.

同樣，我們將採用投資組合的方法來考慮這裡的資產負債情況。但是，建立這樣一個結構，可以獲得相對於 NYMEX 的溢價，當然，NYMEX 是世界上流動性最強的天然氣市場，我們可以對沖這種風險並主動管理這種風險敞口，我們認為這是一個非常好的機會。

So we could do more of these. And again, we'll continue to look for transactions that have all the right characteristics, but they won't all look the same. In fact, intentionally, we will have a portfolio approach to this.

所以我們可以多做一些這樣的事情。我們將繼續尋找具備所有合適特徵的交易，但它們看起來並不都一樣。事實上，我們將有意採用投資組合的方式來解決這個問題。

Terrific. I appreciate that color. For my follow-up, with your position in the Nacogdoches fault zone, I wanted to get a sense of how similar your position in the Western Haynesville is to the NFZ just in terms of depth and temperature. And do you believe your experience operating in the highest geopressured area of the legacy Haynesville positions you to potentially come down the learning curve more quickly.

了不起。我喜歡這個顏色。為了跟進，鑑於您位於納科多奇斯斷層帶，我想了解您在西海恩斯維爾的位置與納科多奇斯斷層帶在深度和溫度方面有多相似。您是否認為您在海恩斯維爾歷史遺跡中地壓最高的區域的工作經驗，能讓您更快適應新的環境？

Yes, John. So there's definitely some similarities. Of course, as we get into the Western Haynesville, the depths will be a little bit deeper from a total vertical depth standpoint. But as far as will there be learnings, absolutely. Currently, when we think about how we're developing the NFZ area of our play, just as a point of example, we're drilling completing wells there, $1,500 to $1,600 per foot. And today, if you're thinking about wells in the Western Haynesville at around $3,000, I have every bit of expectation that it doesn't take us 2x the well cost to go develop that part of the asset.

是的，約翰。所以它們之間肯定有一些相似之處。當然，到了海恩斯維爾西部，從總垂直深度來看，深度會更深一些。但要說能從中吸取教訓，那絕對是肯定的。目前，當我們考慮如何開發我們的NFZ區域時，舉個例子，我們在那裡鑽井完井，每英尺成本為1500至1600美元。今天，如果你考慮在西海恩斯維爾地區開採價值約 3000 美元的油井，我完全有理由相信，開發這部分資產的成本不會是普通油井的兩倍。

So we will absolutely carry forward those operational learnings. I think there's a lot of things that we can carry forward into this part of the play, which again is why we simply believe that we're the right type of operator to be operating in a very complex part of the basin.

因此，我們一定會將這些操作經驗運用在後續工作上。我認為有很多東西我們可以運用到這個區域的開發中，這也是為什麼我們相信我們是適合在這個盆地非常複雜的區域進行作業的合適運營商。

And our next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

Just touching base again on the Western Haynesville. Just a couple of questions, just a clarification. Number one, first on -- you spoke about like geological complexities and stuff out there. Do you -- what other kind of facets are important for us to focus on? And then trying to figure out, like is there a greater position for you to build out there? Or do you think you've got a pocket that you like right now?

再次聯絡西海恩斯維爾地區。幾個問題，想確認一下。首先，你剛才談到了地質的複雜性等等。您認為－我們還應該關注哪些其他方面？然後試著去思考，例如，你是否能在外面找到一個更好的發展平台？或是你覺得你現在有自己喜歡的口袋嗎？

Yes, Scott, we feel really good about the position that we've built. I mean with 75,000 net acres, of course, the gross acre position is going to be a little bit larger than that. And so we think there's some opportunities to maybe kind of buildup in and around that position, but nothing material. Again, given our overall inventory depth in the basin, we think this is about the right size for us going forward.

是的，斯科特，我們對我們所取得的成就感到非常滿意。我的意思是，淨面積為 75,000 英畝，當然，總面積會比這大一些。因此，我們認為在這個位置上或許有一些發展機會，但沒有什麼實質的進展。再次強調，考慮到我們在盆地的整體庫存深度，我們認為這對我們未來的發展來說規模比較合適。

And then to your comments on the geologic complexity, one of the things that we've observed through our data sets is there is quite a bit of structural complexity as you move across the play, especially as you move further west, you'll get some very steeply deeping beds there that create some complexities in terms of how you drill wells, especially in the lateral section. And so we are very thoughtful about where we want it to be. We like the area that we've got, that it has much less structural complexity within it, which puts us in a position to simply executing at lower cost while delivering outsized production results.

至於您提到的地質複雜性問題，我們透過資料集觀察到的一點是，隨著您穿越油氣藏，地質構造的複雜性會越來越大，尤其是在向西移動時，您會遇到一些非常陡峭的深層地層，這會給鑽井方式帶來一些複雜性，尤其是在水平段。因此，我們對它最終的落腳點進行了非常周全的考慮。我們喜歡我們所擁有的這個區域，因為它的結構複雜性要低得多，這使我們能夠以更低的成本實現超乎尋常的生產成果。

And my follow-up question is on the Haynesville productivity improvements and the view of seeing it improve yet into 2026. It sounds like some of that is your Gen 1 through potentially Gen 3 design. Could you give us a little bit of color on exactly what you're tweaking within that? And also, is there any facet of the expectation of productivity improvements related to where you're targeting within the Haynesville? Or is it more based on these new generations of completions?

我的後續問題是關於海恩斯維爾生產效率的提高，以及 2026 年能否繼續提高生產效率的展望。聽起來其中一些是你的第一代到可能第三代的設計。能否詳細說明一下你具體在哪些方面做了調整？另外，您在海恩斯維爾的目標區域內，對生產力提升的預期是否有任何關聯？或者，它更多是基於這些新一代的完成情況？

Yes. I mean, first of all, both the Bossier and the Haynesville are very prospective within our acreage position in Louisiana. So we continue to develop both. And especially in the southern portion in and around the NFZ, both zones are highly prolific. And so yes, we continue to optimize exactly where we land the wells within those zones. But really, what we find to be one of the biggest drivers is just simply how we complete the wells.

是的。我的意思是，首先，博西爾和海恩斯維爾這兩個地區在我們路易斯安那州的土地範圍內都非常有發展前景。因此，我們將繼續發展這兩項技術。尤其是在禁毒區及其周邊南部地區，這兩個區域的毒品產量都非常高。所以，是的，我們會繼續優化在這些區域內鑽井的具體位置。但實際上，我們發現最大的驅動因素之一就是我們如何完成油井作業。

And so exactly that recipe, obviously, we're not going to get into that. But I think the biggest factor is we have a very low-cost sand source that we're able to rely on going forward. That also allows us to control the deliverability of it in terms of ensuring that we have the right sand at the right time. Historically in the basin, especially as we've gotten more and more efficient with our completions, third parties, their ability to keep up with their needs has definitely been lagging. So we can now control our own destiny. We have a lower supply sand source. We can increase our proppant loading and do so more economically than what others can do in the basin.

所以，很顯然，我們不會深入探討那個具體的配方。但我認為最大的因素是我們擁有非常低成本的沙子來源，我們可以在未來繼續依賴它。這樣一來，我們就可以控製沙子的供應，確保在適當的時間提供合適的沙子。從歷史上看，在盆地內，尤其是在我們完井效率越來越高的情況下，第三方滿足自身需求的能力肯定已經落後了。所以我們現在可以掌控自己的命運了。我們的沙源供應量較低。我們可以增加支撐劑用量，而且比盆地內其他人能做到的更經濟。

Operator And our final question for today comes from the line of John Freeman, Raymond James.

接線員：我們今天的最後一個問題來自約翰·弗里曼和雷蒙德·詹姆斯的線路。

When I was looking at the full year CapEx reduction by another $75 million, the two biggest drivers of that are the $25 million less allocated to the productive capacity build, which you've been pretty clear kind of highlighting the efficiency gains in the Haynesville that drove that. But the other amount was Northeast App that dropped about $25 million, and I know there's some curtailments. And I'm just trying to get an understanding if that's sort of timing curtailment related? Are there efficiency gains? I didn't see anything in the deck on kind of what drove the meaningful Northeast App drop in the budget.

當我查看全年資本支出減少 7500 萬美元的情況時，發現其中兩個最大的驅動因素是用於生產能力建設的資金減少了 2500 萬美元，而您已經非常清楚地強調了海恩斯維爾工廠的效率提升是造成這種情況的原因。但另一筆款項來自 Northeast App，金額約 2500 萬美元，我知道有一些削減措施。我只是想了解這是否與時間限制有關？效率是否有提升？我從簡報中沒有看到任何關於導致東北地區應用預算大幅下降的原因的資訊。

Yes. So I mean, if you just think about kind of seasonality across the United States, I mean, the majority of the seasonal demand weakness will show up in the Appalachia region. And so when we think about curtailments, we will tend to prioritize curtailments in the Northeast first. And so that's really what's impacted the Q3 number. As you kind of project forward into the fourth quarter, we're obviously carrying forward curtailments into the fourth quarter with those being predominantly in the Northeast. So that's, by and large, what's driving that, John.

是的。所以我的意思是，如果你考慮美國各地的季節性因素，你會發現，大部分季節性需求疲軟的情況都會出現在阿巴拉契亞地區。因此，當我們考慮限制措施時，我們往往會優先考慮東北地區的限制措施。這才是真正影響第三季業績的因素。展望第四季度，我們顯然將減產措施延續到第四季度，這些減產措施主要集中在東北地區。所以，總的來說，這就是驅動這件事的主要因素，約翰。

Okay. And then on the follow-up question, you've obviously made significant progress on debt reduction this year. When I'm looking at next year relative to your capital returns framework that you all have on Slide 14, how should we think about kind of further debt reduction relative to other returns such as buybacks? I guess said differently, in other words, like would you anticipate a similar amount gets allocated to debt reduction next year in that sort of capital returns framework?

好的。至於後續問題，顯然你們今年在減少債務方面取得了顯著進展。當我展望明年，並結合你們在第 14 頁幻燈片中展示的資本回報框架時，我們應該如何看待進一步減少債務與股票回購等其他回報之間的關係？換句話說，在這種資本回報框架下，您是否預期明年會有類似的金額用於償還債務？

Yes. John, it's Nick. So last quarter, we said we were going to prioritize debt pay down for a period of time as we recognize that post-merger, our balance sheet is very strong, but we would like to have less debt for the long term. So we're going to continue to do that going into next year. We think we have a lot of momentum to pay down some debt next year, and looking forward to delivering on that.

是的。約翰，我是尼克。因此，上個季度我們表示，我們將優先償還債務一段時間，因為我們認識到合併後我們的資產負債表非常強勁，但我們希望從長遠來看減少債務。所以明年我們將繼續這樣做。我們認為明年我們有很大的動力來償還一些債務，並期待實現這一目標。

I would just note that this year, we did, both retire $1.2 billion of debt and returned $850 million to shareholders. So we are willing and able to do both. We have the financial flexibility to allocate capital towards shareholder returns in size when we choose to do it. And we'll be ready to do that when the right time hits. So I would say stay tuned. We'll be giving more specific answers as we get into next year and see market conditions set up. But we're totally flexible, capable and willing on all fronts.

我只想指出，今年我們既償還了 12 億美元的債務，又向股東返還了 8.5 億美元。所以我們願意也有能力做到這兩點。我們擁有財務彈性，可以根據需要將資金分配給股東，以期獲得豐厚的回報。時機成熟時，我們會做好準備。所以我想說，敬請期待。隨著我們進入明年，並觀察市場狀況的變化，我們將給出更具體的答案。但我們在各方面都具備充分的靈活性、能力和意願。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Nick Dell'Osso for any further remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給尼克·德爾奧索，讓他再補充一些內容。

DThank you, guys, for joining the call this morning. We're obviously really pleased with our third quarter results. This puts a great end to the first 12 months of Expand Energy, and we think is such a great setup for where we head next as an organization. The momentum we have around capital efficiency as well as building out our marketing business is very exciting to us. And we think there's an opportunity to create a tremendous amount of value for shareholders going forward and look forward to speaking with you all at each step along the way. Thank you for your time.

謝謝各位今天早上參加電話會議。我們顯然對第三季的業績非常滿意。這為 Expand Energy 的前 12 個月畫上了圓滿的句號，我們認為這為我們組織接下來的發展方向奠定了良好的基礎。我們目前在提高資本效率和拓展行銷業務方面取得的進展令我們非常振奮。我們認為，未來有機會為股東創造巨大的價值，並期待在接下來的每一步與大家交流。感謝您抽出時間。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。