艾索倫電力 (EXC) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to today's webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎收看今天的網路直播。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的網路直播將被錄音。（接線員指示）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.

現在我很榮幸將今天的議程交給企業財務資深副總裁 Dan Eggers。請開始。

Thank you, Mary. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks.

謝謝你，Mary。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們 2020 年第一季財報電話會議。今天由 Exelon 總裁兼執行長 Chris Crane，以及 Exelon 財務長 Joe Nigro 主持。Exelon 其他資深管理團隊成員也一同參與，並將在我們的準備發言之後回答各位的提問。

We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, both of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations.

我們今天早上發布了財報新聞稿並同時提供簡報，兩者皆可在 Exelon 官網的投資人關係（Investor Relations）專區找到。今天電話會議中我們討論的財報新聞稿及其他事項包含前瞻性陳述與估計，可能受到各種風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能因今日資料中所討論的因素與假設，以及本次電話會議中的評論而與前瞻性陳述有所差異。請參閱今日的 8-K 以及 Exelon 其他向 SEC 提交的文件中對風險因素與其他因素的討論，其中包括 COVID-19 疫情影響所帶來的不確定性，這些都可能導致結果與管理層的推估、預測與預期不同。

Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures.

今天的簡報亦包含對調整後營運盈餘及其他非 GAAP 指標的引用。請參閱簡報附錄及我們的財報新聞稿所載資訊，以了解非 GAAP 指標與最接近之 GAAP 指標之間的調節表。

I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.

接下來我把電話交給 Exelon 執行長 Chris Crane。

Thanks, Dan, and thanks to everybody that's joined today. I'll first start off with the first quarter results. We had a strong quarter even with one of the warmest winters we've seen in a long time. The GAAP basis earned $0.60 per share. Non-GAAP basis earned $0.87 per share. Joe is going to cover all those details in his remark.

謝謝你，Dan，也感謝今天加入的各位。我先從第一季業績開始談起。即使遇到我們很久以來最溫暖的冬季之一，我們本季表現仍然強勁。按 GAAP 基礎計算，每股盈餘為 0.60 美元；按非 GAAP 基礎計算，每股盈餘為 0.87 美元。Joe 會在他的發言中說明所有細節。

We had very solid operations throughout the first quarter, first quartile outage frequency and duration and record-setting nuclear refueling outages that I'll go into further as we continue.

第一季我們的營運表現非常穩健，停電頻率與停電持續時間均位於第一四分位，核電換料停機（refueling outages）也創下紀錄；我在後續會再進一步說明。

Hearings and working groups in Illinois on Clean Energy legislation are -- which is very critical right now, are meeting. The discussions going on. We still haven't determined how the legislature will get back into session to resume work, but I think they all understand the priority of what needs to be done, not only for energy, but the capital budgets and other issues in Illinois. So we'll work and continue to work on that through May.

伊利諾州針對《清潔能源》立法的聽證會與工作小組——目前非常關鍵——正在開會並持續討論。我們仍未確定州議會將如何恢復開議以繼續推進相關工作，但我認為他們都了解必須完成事項的優先順序，不僅是能源議題，還包括資本預算及伊利諾州的其他議題。因此我們會在 5 月持續推動並繼續投入相關工作。

Our #1 focus throughout this pandemic has been focusing on the safety and well-being of our employees. Our employees are on a mission. They know we're mission-critical and as many as possible working remotely in supporting the critical infrastructure. We have approximately 17,000 people, employees and another 8,000 contractors working remotely and being able to execute on their tasks without any faults. So our frontline workers, the 17,000 frontline workers and the contractors that are maintaining the electric gas system and the power plants. We're protecting with PPE, social distancing and prescreening. We have not laid off or furloughed or reduced hours or pay as a result of the pandemic.

在整個疫情期間，我們的首要重點一直是員工的安全與福祉。我們的員工肩負使命，他們知道我們屬於關鍵任務單位，並盡可能以遠端方式工作以支援關鍵基礎設施。我們約有 17,000 名員工，以及另外 8,000 名承包商在遠端工作，且能夠無差錯地執行各自任務。至於第一線人員——17,000 名第一線員工以及維護電力與天然氣系統及發電廠的承包商——我們透過個人防護裝備（PPE）、社交距離與事前篩檢來保護他們。我們未因疫情而裁員、實施無薪假，或降低工時或薪資。

We've done a couple of things. Employees diagnosed with COVID remain in pay status and no charge to sick leave. Overall, we've had 102 employees have been diagnosed with COVID, plus 25 contractors. 82 of those total count have returned back to work. And so we're continuing to focus on the health and safety and the well-being. We fully -- we give full pay to employees that are being quarantined. If they've become in contact through our tracing mechanisms that we're providing at all of our facilities, we quarantine them for the required amount of time, which allows us to keep not only them and their families safe, but also other employees. We also expanded access to backup care for dependence. So those frontline employees or supporting frontline employees that need to be in the workspace out in the field do not have to worry about their children out of school or their elderly parents. So that's another service we're providing to the employees to keep everybody focused on their own safety, the job one, keeping the grid up and keeping the gas flowing and keeping the power plants running.

我們也採取了幾項措施。確診 COVID 的員工仍維持支薪狀態，且不扣病假。整體而言，我們有 102 名員工確診 COVID，另有 25 名承包商確診；其中合計 82 人已返回工作崗位。因此我們持續聚焦於健康、安全與福祉。我們對被隔離的員工提供全額薪資；若透過我們在各設施提供的追蹤機制確認其曾接觸，我們會依規定隔離所需時間，這不僅能保障他們及其家人的安全，也能保護其他員工。我們也擴大了對受扶養者的備援照護（backup care）資源。因此，那些必須在工作場所或外勤現場的第一線員工，或支援第一線的員工，不必擔心孩子因停課無人照顧或年邁父母的照護問題。這是我們提供給員工的另一項服務，讓大家能專注於自身安全——首要任務——並維持電網穩定、天然氣供應不中斷，以及發電廠持續運轉。

A big part -- on Slide 4 (sic) [Slide 8], you'll see a big part of what we do, what we've always been doing and what we will continue to do is support our customers and communities. As you know, and you've heard, all the utilities suspended disconnects, waived new late fees, and we did reconnect or reach out to customers that had been disconnected since the 1st of March and offered to reconnect those individuals who had been disconnected. And this gives us the ability to -- for people that are laid off or people that are in financially challenged times to have one of the most critical social and needed energy sources that we can provide.

在第 4 張投影片（原文如此）[第 8 張投影片]，你會看到我們工作的一大部分——我們一直在做、也將持續做的——是支援客戶與社區。如各位所知、也已聽到，所有公用事業公司都暫停了斷電措施、免除新增滯納金；我們也重新接通或主動聯繫自 3 月 1 日以來曾被斷電的客戶，並提出為這些被斷電的個人恢復供電。這讓我們能夠——讓被裁員或正面臨財務困難的人——仍可獲得我們所能提供、最關鍵且最必要的能源來源之一。

We also, at the Exelon Foundation and our companies, have contributed over more than $5.9 million to relief organizations, ensuring food banks and other programs can be supported during this time of need, and we'll continue to focus on that.

此外，透過 Exelon 基金會及旗下公司，我們已向救援組織捐助超過 590 萬美元，確保食物銀行及其他計畫在此需要的時刻能獲得支持；我們也將持續聚焦於此。

But at the core of everything, after safety in the community, is our operational excellence, which is even more critical right now, keeping the lights on in this crisis, keeping the hospitals with power, health care providers, grocery stores, medical food production facilities, you can see the list of the priorities that are there. And we have to, as a company and an organization, continue to have reliable service, and that is strong at the utilities. We've had spring storms already this year. We restored more than 350,000 customers across the service territories in late March and early April. We've been able to do that and test ourselves on moving in resources and being able to adequately and safely shelter our employees, but allow them to work safely in the field to restore the power.

但在一切核心之中——在社區安全之後——是我們的卓越營運，而這在當下更為關鍵：在這場危機中維持供電，確保醫院有電力、醫療照護提供者、雜貨店、醫療與食品生產設施等，你可以看到其中列出的優先項目。作為一家公司與組織，我們必須持續提供可靠服務，而公用事業端的表現一直很強勁。今年我們已遭遇春季風暴；在 3 月下旬與 4 月上旬，我們在各服務區域為超過 35 萬名客戶恢復供電。我們能做到這點，也驗證了我們在調度資源、並能妥善且安全地安置員工的能力，同時讓他們能在現場安全作業以恢復供電。

On the power side, the nuclear group has completed 7 of 8 refueling outages, all better than planned. There's 1 refueling outage left to go that we'll be closing up later in this month, a major rewind on the Ginna station. But if you look at the majority of the plants, it's world-class -- it's been world-class performance with the outages being performed between 16 and 18 days. If you look about these trying times, we've only had 25 employees that have -- excuse me, 29 including contractors, 25 employees have been infected with the COVID virus, and all but 4 have returned to work. So the work that we're doing with PPE, social distancing and allowing the critical resources to come in and operate the facilities that are needed has been very critical to us. And as I mentioned earlier, we've expanded our care to those families that need extra resources. We've completed 26 maintenance outages at our power facilities readying for summer readiness, and all done without issues.

在發電端，核能團隊已完成 8 次換料停機中的 7 次，表現皆優於原先計畫。剩下 1 次換料停機將在本月稍晚完成，為 Ginna 電廠的一次重大檢修（major rewind）。但若你看大多數電廠，這是世界級——停機作業的世界級表現，停機天數介於 16 到 18 天之間。再看這段艱難時期，我們只有 25 名員工——抱歉，包含承包商共 29 人——其中 25 名員工感染 COVID 病毒，且除 4 人外皆已返回工作崗位。因此，我們在 PPE、社交距離，以及讓關鍵資源進場並運轉必要設施方面所做的工作，對我們至關重要。正如我先前提到的，我們也擴大了對需要額外資源家庭的照護。我們已在發電設施完成 26 次維護停機，為夏季備轉做好準備，且全程未出現問題。

So with that, that's the overall view of the operations and what we're focused on, and I'll turn it over to Joe to go through the financial.

以上就是營運面整體概況與我們的重點方向；接下來我把電話交給 Joe，請他說明財務部分。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover our first quarter results and our updated full year guidance, including the financial impacts of COVID-19 and sensitivities for the remainder of the year.

謝謝你，Chris，各位早安。今天我將說明第一季業績，以及更新後的全年財測指引，其中包括 COVID-19 的財務影響，以及今年剩餘期間的敏感度分析。

Starting with Slide 10. We earned $0.60 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.87 per share on a non-GAAP basis, which was slightly below the midpoint of our guidance range. We are particularly pleased with the results considering we had one of the warmest winters on record. Temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic were 5 to 7 degrees higher than average in January through March, costing us $0.14 per share between Exelon Generation and our non-decoupled utilities. This quarter was the most impacted by weather of any quarter since the PHI merger.

先從第 10 張投影片開始。按 GAAP 基礎計算，我們每股盈餘為 0.60 美元；按非 GAAP 基礎計算，每股盈餘為 0.87 美元，略低於我們指引區間的中點。考量到我們遇到有紀錄以來最溫暖的冬季之一，我們對此結果尤其滿意。1 月至 3 月期間，中大西洋地區氣溫較平均高出 5 到 7 度，使 Exelon Generation 與我們未採用 decoupling（收入與用量脫鉤）機制的公用事業合計每股少了 0.14 美元。這一季是自 PHI 併購以來受天氣影響最大的一季。

Exelon Utilities delivered $0.55 per share net of holding company expenses. Our non-decoupled utilities, PECO, Delmarva, Delaware and Atlantic City Electric, were impacted by the warm winter weather. Across these territories, heating degree days were down 18% to 22% during the quarter. These impacts were partially offset by O&M timing across the utility.

Exelon 公用事業部門在扣除控股公司費用後，貢獻每股 0.55 美元。我們未採用 decoupling（收入與用量脫鉤）機制的公用事業公司——PECO、Delmarva、Delaware 以及 Atlantic City Electric——受到冬季偏暖影響。在這些服務區域，本季的暖房度日（heating degree days）下降了 18% 至 22%。這些影響部分被公用事業端的營運與維護（O&M）費用時點差異所抵銷。

ExGen was also impacted by weather, earning $0.32 per share in the first quarter. The weather impact on gross margin and unplanned outages at Salem and FitzPatrick were offset by favorable O&M and nuclear decommissioning trust fund gains.

ExGen 亦受到天候影響，第一季每股盈餘為 0.32 美元。天候對毛利的影響以及 Salem 與 FitzPatrick 的非計畫性停機，已由有利的 O&M（營運與維護）以及核能除役信託基金收益所抵銷。

Turning to Slide 11. Efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19, including stay-at-home orders in our states, have caused dramatic changes in electricity demand and the national economic outlook. Taking into account the impact of COVID-19, unfavorable weather and lower ROEs at ComEd, we are revising our 2020 full year guidance range from $3 to $3.30 per share to $2.80 to $3.10 per share. While typically, we would not change guidance so early in the year, we want to provide a complete picture of where we stand at this point in the year and include our best estimates of the COVID-19 impact.

接著看第 11 頁投影片。為遏止 COVID-19 擴散所採取的措施（包括我們各州的居家令）已造成用電需求與全國經濟展望出現劇烈變化。考量 COVID-19 的影響、不利天候以及 ComEd 較低的 ROE，我們將 2020 年全年財測區間由每股 3.00 至 3.30 美元，下修至每股 2.80 至 3.10 美元。雖然通常我們不會在年初這麼早調整財測，但我們希望在此時點提供我們現況的完整圖像，並納入我們對 COVID-19 影響的最佳估計。

Let me start by saying that none of us has ever experienced anything like this before. The full impacts, including the duration and structural changes to the economy continue to evolve. In developing our revised guidance range, we looked at the load and economic data we were seeing in April, talked to our customers about their expectations for the year and considered different economic outlooks. In Q2, we expect commercial industrial load to decrease by 9% to 15% and residential load to increase by 4% to 7% depending on the region. Over the remainder of the year, we expect commercial industrial unfavorability and residential favorability to diminish as the economy recovers. We've taken a cautious view of the world, and you can see the assumptions on this slide that underpin our new guidance range. We also recognize that the situation is changing rapidly, so we show a number of sensitivities to our guidance on the following pages so you can calibrate.

首先我要說，我們之中沒有人曾經遇過這樣的情況。其全面影響（包括持續時間與對經濟的結構性改變）仍在演變中。在制定修訂後的財測區間時，我們檢視了 4 月所見的負載與經濟數據，與客戶討論他們對今年的預期，並考量不同的經濟展望。在第二季，我們預期商業與工業負載將下降 9% 至 15%，而住宅負載將依地區不同上升 4% 至 7%。在今年剩餘期間，隨著經濟復甦，我們預期商工負載的不利影響與住宅負載的有利影響將逐步減弱。我們對外部環境採取審慎的看法，您可在本頁看到支撐新財測區間的假設。我們也認知情勢變化快速，因此在後續頁面提供多項對財測的敏感度分析，便於您校準。

I also want to come back to a point on actions we are taking. We challenged the organization against the current backdrop, identifying and pursuing initiatives across the company to lower our costs and improve our profitability. These provide $250 million of offset to other pressures, which we reflect in this updated forecast.

我也想回到我們正在採取的行動這一點。在目前的背景下，我們對組織提出挑戰，辨識並推動全公司各項計畫，以降低成本並提升獲利能力。這些措施可對其他壓力提供 2.5 億美元的抵銷，我們已在更新後的預測中反映。

At the utilities, the $0.10 per share degradation from prior guidance can be split into a little over $0.05 for lower distribution ROEs at ComEd due to the drop in the 30-year treasury and a little less than $0.05 for the record mild first quarter weather. For COVID-19-related impacts, we expect to be able to offset the impact of lower loads at our non-decoupled utilities through cost reductions and the assumption that our regulators allow for timely recovery of expected bad -- higher bad debt.

在公用事業端，相較先前財測每股 0.10 美元的下滑，可拆分為：ComEd 因 30 年期美國公債殖利率下跌而導致配電 ROE 較低，約超過每股 0.05 美元；以及第一季創紀錄的溫和天候，約略低於每股 0.05 美元。就 COVID-19 相關影響而言，我們預期可透過成本降低來抵銷非解耦（non-decoupled）公用事業因負載下降造成的影響，並假設監管機關允許及時回收預期的壞帳（較高的壞帳）。

At ExGen, the $0.10 per share degradation reflects $0.05 of drag from the very mild Q1 weather and then $0.05 of COVID-19 impacts on load net of our cost and business initiatives. In addition to the O&M savings, we remain focused on cash at ExGen and have lowered CapEx by $125 million in 2020. We expect our earnings to be most impacted in the second quarter and have provided adjusted operating earnings guidance of $0.35 to $0.45 per share.

在 ExGen 方面，每股 0.10 美元的下滑反映：第一季天候異常溫和帶來每股 0.05 美元的拖累，以及在扣除我們的成本與業務計畫後，COVID-19 對負載的影響約每股 0.05 美元。除 O&M 節省外，我們仍聚焦 ExGen 的現金，並已在 2020 年將資本支出（CapEx）下調 1.25 億美元。我們預期第二季對盈餘的影響最大，並提供調整後營運盈餘指引為每股 0.35 至 0.45 美元。

Looking at the impact of COVID-19 on the utilities on Slide 12. As you can see, 70% of the Exelon Utilities are decoupled, and the revenues are not subject to load fluctuations. The majority of volumes at our nondecoupled utilities, PECO, Atlantic City Electric and Delmarva, Delaware, are commercial industrial customers. In the table at the bottom right, we provide sensitivities for load by customer class and ComEd's distribution ROE for the remainder of the year. Each of our utilities is working with the regulators on COVID-19 cost and bad debt recovery mechanisms where we do not have them. Atlantic City Electric and ComEd have existing bad debt mechanisms -- recovery mechanisms that result in no earnings impact with the cash being recovered in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

看第 12 頁投影片中 COVID-19 對公用事業的影響。如您所見，Exelon Utilities 有 70% 已解耦（decoupled），其營收不受負載波動影響。我們非解耦公用事業（PECO、Atlantic City Electric 與 Delmarva（Delaware））的大部分用量來自商業與工業客戶。在右下方表格中，我們提供今年剩餘期間按客戶類別的負載敏感度，以及 ComEd 配電 ROE 的敏感度。各家公用事業正與監管機關就 COVID-19 成本與壞帳回收機制（在尚未具備者）進行協作。Atlantic City Electric 與 ComEd 已有既有的壞帳機制——回收機制，使盈餘不受影響，現金分別於 2021 年與 2022 年回收。

Last month, the PSCs in Maryland and DC issue orders to authorize a regulatory asset that tracks prudent COVID-19-related costs incurred, which will allow for an assessment of recovery of incremental bad debt or atypical costs related to the pandemic. We are currently engaged with our commissions and stakeholders in Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania regarding the potential recovery of costs. On Slide 27 of the appendix, we provide more detail on these efforts and current bad debt recovery mechanisms.

上個月，馬里蘭州與華盛頓特區的 PSC 發布命令，授權設立一項監管資產，用以追蹤所發生且屬審慎（prudent）的 COVID-19 相關成本，這將允許評估是否回收因疫情導致的增量壞帳或非典型成本。我們目前正與德拉瓦州、新澤西州與賓夕法尼亞州的委員會及利害關係人就成本回收的可能性進行溝通。在附錄第 27 頁投影片中，我們提供這些工作與現行壞帳回收機制的更多細節。

Turning to Slide 13, the impacts of the Constellation business are like those of a non-decoupled utility. Constellation delivers around 210 terawatt hours annually of customer load through its wholesale and retail channels. In retail, Constellation's 2019 customer breakdown was 90% commercial and industrial. And of those customers, 70% of them were on fixed price contracts. When we look at volumes for the rest of the year, and exclude index contracts, we have about 125 terawatt hours of normal annualized load exposed to COVID-related demand destruction. For the last 9 months of the year, we assume Constellation load is down 6% in total, with C&I down 9% and residential increasing 2%.

接著看第 13 頁投影片，Constellation 業務所受影響類似於非解耦公用事業。Constellation 透過批發與零售通路，每年交付約 210 太瓦時（terawatt hours）的客戶負載。在零售端，Constellation 2019 年的客戶結構為 90% 商業與工業；而在這些客戶中，有 70% 採固定價格合約。當我們檢視今年剩餘期間的用量並排除指數型（index）合約後，約有 125 太瓦時的正常年化負載暴露於 COVID 相關的需求破壞。就今年最後 9 個月而言，我們假設 Constellation 總負載下降 6%，其中商工（C&I）下降 9%，住宅增加 2%。

I know there have been questions about how constellation's fixed price load contracts are impacted by COVID-19. So let me take a minute to explain. These fixed-price contracts assume that the customer will use a certain amount of electricity and are impacted by fluctuations in customer usage in three ways: first, margin; second, commodity value; and third, through collection of fixed price charges. We are seeing the impacts of lower load on these in the current environment. When load is lower, Constellation loses the original sales margin on those unconsumed megawatt hours. Customer contracts can become in and out of the money over time. When a forward contract is signed, it assumes a price for electricity over the term of the contract. If the power procured for the customer is at a higher price than the current market and then the customer consumes less than forecasted, the generation must be sold into the open market at a lower price, creating a gap in revenues. Finally, customers are billed for capacity and transmission charges that are charged by the ISO. Although these are typically fixed charges, for many customers, we unitize them over the expected quantity of electricity and collect them on a dollars-per-megawatt-hour basis. So when the customer consumes less, we undercollect the fixed charge due to the ISO and are responsible for the shortfall.

我知道外界一直在問 Constellation 的固定價格負載合約如何受到 COVID-19 影響，因此我花一點時間說明。這些固定價格合約假設客戶會使用一定量的電力，而客戶用電量的波動會透過三種方式影響：第一，毛利；第二，商品價值；第三，固定價格費用的收取。在目前環境下，我們正看到負載下降對上述項目的影響。當負載較低時，Constellation 會失去那些未被消耗的兆瓦時原本的銷售毛利。客戶合約可能隨時間推移而出現價內或價外（in and out of the money）。當簽訂遠期合約時，合約假設在合約期間的電價；若為客戶採購的電力價格高於目前市場價格，而客戶實際用電又低於預測，則必須將發電量以較低價格售回公開市場，造成營收缺口。最後，客戶會被收取由 ISO（獨立系統營運商）計費的容量與輸電費。雖然這些通常屬固定費用，但對許多客戶而言，我們會按預期用電量將其單位化，並以每兆瓦時多少美元的方式收取。因此當客戶用電較少時，我們對 ISO 應付的固定費用會出現收取不足，而我們需承擔差額。

These fluctuations can be positive or negative to our bottom line. In a normal world where load fluctuations are primarily driven by weather, the risk is priced in and assumed in the contract. That assumption of risk could not have predicted the demand shocks and impacts that we're seeing due to the pandemic.

這些波動對我們的損益可能是正面也可能是負面。在正常情況下，負載波動主要由天候驅動，相關風險已被定價並在合約中假設。然而，這種風險假設無法預測我們因疫情所見到的需求衝擊與影響。

In 2020, where C&I load is significantly displaced, we are seeing pressure on our gross margin, which is reflected in our guidance. We also expect the drop in profits to be limited to the period in time that the pandemic drives very wide differences in actual and assumed usage.

在 2020 年，商工（C&I）負載大幅被排擠的情況下，我們看到毛利承受壓力，並已反映在我們的財測中。我們也預期獲利下滑將僅限於疫情導致實際用電與假設用電之間出現非常大的差異的那段期間。

Looking to the future, the Constellation business will return to profitability levels similar to those under normal conditions. And besides this highly unusual situation, having our load be primarily commercial and industrial customers remains key to our strategy. First, C&I customer usage patterns align with our baseload generation portfolio as C&I load is much more predictable and stable than residential load. In normal circumstances, C&I customer load is less exposed to weather fluctuations due to its higher load factors than residential customers. Second, C&I customers allow us to achieve scale that cannot be done with residential customers. Finally, across -- finally, although the gross margins may be higher on residential customers, these margins do not account for the cost to acquire these customers, which are higher than C&I.

展望未來，Constellation 業務將回到與正常狀況相近的獲利水準。除這種極不尋常的情況外，我們的負載以商業與工業客戶為主仍是策略關鍵。第一，商工客戶的用電型態與我們的基載發電組合相匹配，因為商工負載比住宅負載更可預測且更穩定。在正常情況下，由於商工客戶的負載因子高於住宅客戶，其負載較不易受天候波動影響。第二，商工客戶使我們能達到住宅客戶難以實現的規模。最後——最後，雖然住宅客戶的毛利率可能較高，但這些毛利並未計入取得客戶的成本，而該成本高於商工客戶。

You can see the impacts of weather and COVID-19 on our gross margin on Slide 14. In 2020, total gross margin is down $300 million. $100 million is due to Q1 weather, which can be pretty evenly split between lower volumes on our power and gas customer businesses. As a reminder, our gas business makes most of its margin in the winter. We then are $200 million lower due to the impacts of COVID-19 on the balance of the year. During the quarter, we expect -- we executed $100 million and $50 million in powered new business and non-powered new business, respectively. In 2021, total gross margin's down $100 million, primarily due to lower power prices in PJM in New York as well as some modest carryover of COVID-19-related drag on the load business. Since the end of the quarter, we have seen power prices rebound to levels above the start of the year, recovering most of the gross margin decline. We also executed $50 million of powered and non-powered new business during the quarter.

您可以在第14頁看到天氣與COVID-19對我們毛利的影響。2020年，總毛利下降3億美元。其中1億美元來自第一季天氣因素，且可相當平均地分攤至我們電力與天然氣客戶業務的較低銷量。提醒一下，我們的天然氣業務大部分毛利是在冬季產生。接著，因COVID-19對全年其餘期間的影響，我們再下降2億美元。在本季期間，我們預期——我們分別執行了1億美元的有電（powered）新業務與5,000萬美元的無電（non-powered）新業務。2021年，總毛利下降1億美元，主要由於PJM與紐約的電價較低，以及COVID-19相關對負載業務造成的些許延續性拖累。自本季結束以來，我們看到電價反彈至高於年初的水準，已收復大部分毛利下滑。我們也在本季執行了5,000萬美元的有電與無電新業務。

We remain behind our ratable hedging program in both 2020 and '21. We ended the quarter slightly more behind ratable in '20 than at year-end at 8% to 11% due to the reduction in load offsetting hedges made during the quarter. 2021 is 2% to 5% behind ratable. We continue to see some upside in certain markets but are not expecting a significant rebound in power prices or volatility.

我們在2020年與2021年的按比例（ratable）避險計畫上仍落後。由於本季進行的負載對沖避險減少，我們在2020年季末相較於年末略為更落後按比例水準，落後幅度為8%至11%。2021年則落後按比例2%至5%。我們仍在某些市場看到一些上行空間，但不預期電價或波動性會出現顯著反彈。

Slide 15 provides our 2020 projected sources and uses of cash. Our free cash flow is down $775 million from our last disclosure. The utilities cash flow accounts for $600 million of the degradation, largely due to timing of accounts receivable and bad debt, which we expect to reverse. ExGen's free cash flow is down $100 million, reflecting the gross margin decline, but is mitigated by cost reductions and lower CapEx.

第15頁提供我們2020年預估的現金來源與用途。我們的自由現金流較上次揭露減少7.75億美元。公用事業現金流占其中6億美元的惡化，主要是因應收帳款與壞帳的時點因素，我們預期將會回轉。ExGen的自由現金流減少1億美元，反映毛利下滑，但部分被成本降低與資本支出（CapEx）下降所抵銷。

Our liquidity position is strong. As you know, in March, there were significant disruptions in the commercial paper markets, and we temporarily drew down $1.5 billion on ExGen's $5.3 billion credit facility, which we repaid in early April. Given the uncertainty in that market and a $900 million June holding company refinancing, we issued $2 billion in April at Corporate, which gives us additional flexibility. We are confident that we have ample liquidity to meet our needs.

我們的流動性部位強勁。如各位所知，3月商業本票市場出現重大干擾，我們曾暫時自ExGen的53億美元信用額度中動用15億美元，並於4月初償還。鑑於該市場的不確定性以及6月控股公司9億美元的再融資需求，我們於4月在公司層級發行20億美元，為我們提供額外彈性。我們有信心擁有充足流動性以滿足需求。

We also remain committed to strong investment-grade credit ratings. Our FFO to debt is projected to fall to 18% and is below our 19% to 21% target, which reflects the combination of lower FFO and higher debt in 2020 due to the pressures I've previously disclosed. We expect to see improvement in our FFO in 2021, as some of the cash timing issues at the utilities resolve next year and the impacts from COVID unwind. If they were to persist, we have levers we can take to enhance our credit profile. We talked to the rating agencies and their understanding of the current market environment.

我們也仍致力於維持強健的投資等級信用評等。我們預估FFO對債務比率將降至18%，低於我們19%至21%的目標，這反映我先前揭露的壓力所導致：2020年FFO較低且債務較高的組合。我們預期2021年FFO將改善，因為公用事業端部分現金時點問題將於明年解決，且COVID的影響將逐步消退。若這些情況持續，我們也有可採取的槓桿以強化信用概況。我們已與評等機構溝通，他們理解目前的市場環境。

I'll now turn the call back to Chris.

我現在把電話交回給Chris。

Thanks, Joe. The pandemic has brought unexpected challenges to our business in 2020. We have found ways to offset much of the financial impact of this unique challenge, but we're not done. We'll continue to look for ways we can increase profitability and cash flow through the next 3 quarters. The impact on the COVID-19 does not change the fact that Exelon's fundamental business is strong and our strategy remains strong. Our utility rate base is growing over 7% annually for the next 4 years. In that time, we will add more than $13 billion in rate base, nearly equivalent to adding a utility the size of ComEd. Our utility operations are best-in-class. First quartile -- first quarter performance in reliability and customer satisfaction are continuing the solid performance for the rest of the year. Constellation is a premier integrator in their competitive platform. It's the most effective way to bring our generation to market while providing customizable solutions to fit the needs of customers. Our generation fleet is the cleanest in the nation. We are delivering 1 out of every 9 megawatts of clean energy in a significant portion of the nation's clean energy. We continue to advocate for policies that will compensate our nuclear fleet for the essential role it plays in reducing carbon and air pollution and ensure their continued operations.

謝謝，Joe。疫情在2020年為我們的業務帶來意想不到的挑戰。我們已找到方法抵銷這項獨特挑戰所造成的大部分財務影響，但我們還沒完成。我們將在接下來3個季度持續尋找提升獲利能力與現金流的方法。COVID-19的影響並不改變Exelon基本面強勁、以及我們策略依然穩健的事實。我們的公用事業費率基礎（rate base）在未來4年每年成長超過7%。在此期間，我們將新增超過130億美元的費率基礎，幾乎相當於新增一家規模如ComEd的公用事業公司。我們的公用事業營運為同業最佳。第一四分位——第一季在可靠度與客戶滿意度的表現，延續了全年其餘時間的穩健表現。Constellation在其競爭平台上是首屈一指的整合者。這是將我們的發電資產推向市場、同時提供可客製化解決方案以符合客戶需求的最有效方式。我們的發電機組是全美最潔淨的。我們在全國相當大一部分的潔淨能源供應中，提供每9兆瓦就有1兆瓦的潔淨能源。我們持續倡議相關政策，使我們的核能機組因其在減少碳排與空氣污染方面扮演的關鍵角色而獲得補償，並確保其持續運轉。

If you look at our value proposition on Slide 18, I'll close with this. The value proposition is unchanged. We're focused on our growth of our utilities, targeting 7.3% rate base growth and a 6% to 8% EPS growth through 2023. We're confident in our rate base growth and the continued needs for these investments for the customers that we serve. But we're also mindful of the impact that the current 30-year treasury rate has on ComEd's distribution ROE and the impact on EPS and growth rates if that rate was to stay this low. We will use the free cash flow from ExGen to support utility growth, pay down ExGen debt and support the external dividend. We will continue to optimize the value of the Genco business by seeking fair compensation for our zero-emitting generation fleet, closing uneconomic plants, monetizing assets and maximizing their value through Constellation. We will sustain strong investment-grade credit rating metrics throughout this period.

如果您看第18頁我們的價值主張，我就以此作結。價值主張不變。我們聚焦於公用事業成長，目標是在2023年前達成7.3%的費率基礎成長，以及6%至8%的每股盈餘（EPS）成長。我們對費率基礎成長以及我們所服務客戶對這些投資的持續需求充滿信心。但我們也留意目前30年期美國公債利率對ComEd配電ROE的影響，以及若該利率維持在如此低水準，對EPS與成長率的影響。我們將運用ExGen的自由現金流來支持公用事業成長、償還ExGen債務並支持對外股利。我們將持續透過為零排放發電機組爭取公平補償、關閉無經濟效益的電廠、資產變現，以及透過Constellation將其價值最大化，來優化Genco業務的價值。我們將在此期間維持強健的投資等級信用評等指標。

Operator, we can now open it up for questions. Thank you.

接線員，我們現在可以開放提問。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Stephen Byrd。

I wanted to just first talk to -- well, thanks for the thorough update and disclosure, very helpful. The Illinois legislative process, we're trying to follow this as closely as we can. I guess the Illinois Department of Public Health gave some guidance around sort of how the legislature might be able to -- under what circumstance they could reconvene. Do you have a sense for sort of the process and sort of the potential for the legislative session to go through the summer, just given the formal ending date in May, obviously, does not coincide very well with the state's plan to sort of reopen. But it does look like there's some potential that the legislature may be able to meet if they meet sort of these health department guidelines. What is your sense in terms of the ability of the legislature to meet and do business?

我想先談談——嗯，謝謝你們詳盡的更新與揭露，非常有幫助。伊利諾州的立法程序，我們正盡可能密切追蹤。我想伊利諾州公共衛生部對於立法機關可能如何——在何種情況下可以重新召開會議，提供了一些指引。你們是否對流程以及立法會期可能延續到夏季的可能性有些看法？畢竟正式結束日期在5月，顯然與該州逐步重啟的計畫不太吻合。但看起來若立法機關符合衛生部門的這些指引，似乎仍有可能開會。你們對立法機關開會並處理議事的能力有何看法？

We have seen in other jurisdictions, legislative bodies be able to work through and convene. Kathleen, do you want to talk specifically to the path forward here in Illinois?

我們在其他司法管轄區看到，立法機構能夠持續運作並召開會議。Kathleen，你要不要特別談談伊利諾州接下來可能的推進路徑？

Sure. And as you know, the stay-at-home order does extend through the end of May. So it is a good sign to see the Department of Public Health guidance to the legislature on how they might bring people back to the capital safely. That is good progress, but it just remains to be seen whether the leaders will decide to bring folks back to Springfield this session. Even if they cannot come back in May, they can come back in the summer by agreement of the Senate President and the Speaker. They could call a session after May 31 or the Governor himself could call a special session under the constitution. So we're glad to see that there has been guidance provided. There's just not yet any indication about when exactly they will come back.

好的。如你所知，居家令確實延長至5月底。因此，看到公共衛生部向立法機關提供如何安全地讓人員回到州議會大廈的指引，是個好跡象。這是良好進展，但領導層是否會決定在本會期讓大家回到Springfield，仍有待觀察。即使他們無法在5月回來，只要參議院議長與眾議院議長同意，他們也可以在夏季回來。他們可以在5月31日之後召開會期，或州長本人也可依憲法召開特別會期。因此，我們很高興看到已提供相關指引；只是目前仍沒有任何跡象顯示他們究竟會在何時回來。

Understood. A lot of uncertainties there. And then just, I guess, in a related matter, in terms of operational decisions for your nuclear plants in Illinois, Chris, you had mentioned a lot of refueling has been completed and quite quickly as well. But are there any operational considerations you all would have to make? For example, if legislation is not passed in this, call it, summer session? Or do you have some flexibility so that you can give the legislature a bit of time just given, obviously, they have a lot on their plate to address in Illinois?

了解。那裡有很多不確定性。接著我想，在相關議題上，關於你們在伊利諾州核電廠的營運決策，Chris，你提到許多換料已完成，而且速度也相當快。但你們是否需要做出任何營運上的考量？例如，如果立法未能在這次、姑且稱之為夏季會期中通過？或者你們是否有一些彈性，能給立法機關一些時間，畢竟顯然他們在伊利諾州有很多事情要處理？

Yes. It's tough to speculate with everything going on with the COVID, what the outcome of this legislative session or being able to go into an extended session. What we've stressed to all the stakeholders is PJM is committed to run the auctions, and their stated time was towards the end of the year. And that could be extended. We haven't got any public statement that it was extended that I know of. So we're up against a clock. And once those auctions are run, we're highly confident that minimal or any of our clean megawatts will compare in that capacity auction, they'll be replaced by fossil units, which is detrimental to the state's goal of being 100% clean by 2030. So the clock is ticking, and I wouldn't speculate on timing of decisions right now, but we're just stressing the importance to the administration and the key legislative stakeholders and others about not only the importance for the nuclear megawatts, but the importance for the renewable megawatts that have been invested in, in the state of Illinois to continue to be able to operate with a profitability that's reasonable. So that's where we're at right now. We're continuing the dialogue. Kathleen, Bill Von Hoene are leading the conversations through the state legislators and the stakeholders and we'll continue to push on that.

是的。在 COVID 疫情的各種情況下，要推測本次立法會期的結果，或是否能進入延長會期，都很困難。我們對所有利害關係人強調的是，PJM 承諾會舉行拍賣，而他們所表述的時間點是在今年年底左右；而且這個時間也可能延後。就我所知，我們尚未看到任何公開聲明表示已延後。所以我們正面臨時間壓力。一旦那些拍賣完成，我們非常有信心，我們的潔淨兆瓦在該容量拍賣中將幾乎無法競爭（若能競爭也只是極少數），它們將被化石燃料機組取代，這將不利於該州在 2030 年達成 100% 潔淨能源的目標。因此時間正在倒數；我現在不會去推測決策時點，但我們正持續向政府部門、關鍵立法利害關係人及其他各方強調其重要性——不僅是核能兆瓦的重要性，也包括伊利諾伊州已投資的再生能源兆瓦的重要性，必須能在合理的獲利水準下持續運轉。這就是我們目前的狀況。我們會持續對話。Kathleen 與 Bill Von Hoene 正透過州議員與利害關係人主導相關討論，我們也會持續推動。

Next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research, LLC.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research, LLC 的 Steve Fleishman。

Just wanted to, I guess, just get a little more color on the comments on the 6% to 8% utility growth rate, and you mentioned you'd be mindful, I think, you said of the Illinois ROE. And just can you maybe give a little more color on how to think about -- it's obvious what you're embedding now for 2020, but how about for the kind of broader growth rate? And if rates don't get better, are you still within that range? Or just what you've been assuming in there?

我想只是想再多了解一些關於公用事業 6% 到 8% 成長率的評論細節；你提到你們會留意——我記得你說的是伊利諾伊州的 ROE。你能否再多說明一下該如何看待——很明顯你們在 2020 年目前嵌入了什麼假設，但對於更廣泛的成長率呢？如果費率沒有改善，你們仍會落在那個區間內嗎？或者你們在那裡面做了哪些假設？

Yes. We have continued to work our 5-year plan. I think we report out in some places a 4-year plan. Another is a 5-year plan, but we're continuing on our long-range plan. And it has helped us significantly in customer satisfaction and reliability. And it's also allowed us to maintain cash flow and profitability while doing so. In the last 3 rate cases, we actually gave a rate reduction.

是的。我們持續推進我們的 5 年計畫。我想我們在某些地方披露的是 4 年計畫，另一些則是 5 年計畫，但我們一直在延續我們的長期規劃。這對提升客戶滿意度與可靠性有很大幫助，同時也讓我們在這麼做的過程中維持現金流與獲利能力。在最近 3 次費率案件中，我們實際上還做了降價。

So as you can imagine, as you would expect, we look at multiple scenarios. And if the economy continues to degrade, impact on customers, whatever it could be is out in the future, the plans can be adjusted. But at this time, we don't plan on adjusting. We plan on continuing to do the much-needed reliability and efficiency modifications and prepare the system for the onset of much more distributed and renewable energy coming on. It won't be able to happen if we don't make the investments and facilitate it. If we see a day that we're not getting that return or don't see a path to go back, I mean, we haven't seen that day, and we haven't seen that in the near future. So we're continuing on with the investment and watching the treasuries and watching the recovery mechanisms.

因此如你所想、也如你所預期，我們會看多種情境。如果經濟持續惡化、對客戶造成影響，或未來可能出現任何情況，計畫都可以調整。但就目前而言，我們不打算調整。我們計畫持續進行迫切需要的可靠性與效率改善，並為更多分散式與再生能源的導入做好系統準備。如果我們不投資並加以促成，這些就不可能發生。若有一天我們看不到能取得那樣的報酬、或看不到回到那樣報酬的路徑——我的意思是，我們尚未看到那一天，也不認為短期內會發生。因此我們會持續投資，同時關注公債殖利率並關注回收機制。

Okay. So -- but just to clarify, the -- if we're in this kind of lower rate environment, I don't know exactly where the whole forward curve of 30-year is, you're still expected to be within the 6% to 8% range?

好的。所以——但只是要釐清一下——如果我們處在這種較低利率環境中，我不確定 30 年期整個遠期曲線目前在哪裡，你們仍預期會落在 6% 到 8% 的區間內嗎？

Go ahead, Joe.

Joe，你來回答。

Steve, we're not changing the target of the 6% to 8%. As Chris said, we're moving forward with the investment that we plan to make. We update that target once a year. We also show you sensitivities related to the ComEd ROEs. Obviously, they've dropped some since the 1st of the year, which has an impact. We also give you earnings bands that we gave you out through '23, and we're still well within the bands that we gave you. And we'll continue to look for ways to challenge ourselves in this regard.

Steve，我們不會改變 6% 到 8% 的目標。如 Chris 所說，我們會按計畫推進投資。我們每年更新一次該目標。我們也向你們展示與 ComEd ROE 相關的敏感度。顯然，自年初以來它們有所下降，這會帶來影響。我們也提供了到 2023 年的盈餘區間，而我們仍然完全落在我們給出的區間之內。我們也會持續尋找方法在這方面鞭策自己。

At this point, it would be very shortsighted for us to start, stop, start, stop, depending on an interest rate. The most efficient way is to get the long-term investments prudently done and support the customers' needs.

在這個時間點，如果我們因為利率而開始、停止、再開始、再停止，那將是非常短視的。最有效率的方式，是審慎地把長期投資做好，並支持客戶的需求。

Got it. I see what you're saying. So you're saying, Chris, that you're not going to hold back on investment in the state because of the temporary rates being lower. Got it.

了解。我明白你的意思了。所以你是說，Chris，你們不會因為暫時性的低利率而在該州縮手投資。了解。

Not.

不會。

Okay. Just one other question. Yes. One other question just for -- I guess for Joe, you mentioned levers on your credit. You have levers on your credit profile if, I guess, things stay weaker there. Could you just give some color on what those levers are?

好的。還有一個問題。是的，還有一個問題——我想是問 Joe，你提到在信用方面有一些槓桿。如果那邊的情況持續較弱，你們在信用體質上有哪些槓桿可以運用？能否稍微說明一下？

I think, Steve, I think we've got a track record of proving that we continue to challenge ourselves on our cost structure. I mean we're reducing our cost by $250 million this year with actions we've taken, and we're going to continue to challenge ourselves in the future in that regard. We've been clear that we have some uneconomic power plants, and we're working hard to rectify that. We would have to address that. Those would be 2 big levers that we would have to address.

Steve，我想——我想我們有一個紀錄，證明我們會持續在成本結構上鞭策自己。我的意思是，我們透過已採取的行動，今年將成本降低 2.5 億美元，而且未來也會在這方面持續自我要求。我們也很清楚我們有一些不具經濟性的電廠，並正努力加以矯正。我們必須處理這件事。這兩項會是我們必須動用的兩個主要槓桿。

The next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim.

下一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Shar Pourreza。

So a couple of questions here. Realize with Illinois, there is significant uncertainty over '22 with PJM. But can you speak a little bit at a high level to how gross margin is developing, maybe just directionally, ignoring the upside or downside from capacity reform? And I realize this is secondary at this point to everything going on. But do you still think something can get done in Illinois at the veto session?

這裡有幾個問題。了解在伊利諾伊州，因 PJM 的因素，對 2022 年存在相當大的不確定性。但你能否從較高層次談談毛利的發展情況——也許只談方向性，先不考慮容量改革帶來的上行或下行？我也知道相較於目前正在發生的一切，這是次要議題。但你們仍認為在否決會期（veto session）伊利諾伊州能有所進展嗎？

We're still working. We still have significant support on what we have to do. Where it gets done, we would hope that it would get done before the end of the session. That's what we've stressed to give the IPA time to be able to develop their own auction process. That will allow us to break away on capacity needs for the state of Illinois from PJM. It's -- as I said earlier, it's a very tight time frame. If they were able to come in, in a summer session and we had assurances, they were going to address this in a summer session. Under the requirements by the Illinois Health, we would continue to work with them on that. But it's -- there's a lot of things that have to get done in Springfield, but they also realize that this is a very important issue to address and along with the state budget and some other large issues. So we know there's a will to get to work. It's just the way to get to work and how fast we can get this done.

我們仍在努力。我們在必須做的事情上仍獲得相當大的支持。至於何時能完成，我們希望能在會期結束前完成。我們一直強調要在那之前完成，讓 IPA 有時間能夠制定他們自己的拍賣流程。那將使我們能夠就伊利諾伊州的容量需求脫離 PJM。正如我先前所說，時間非常緊迫。如果他們能在夏季會期介入，而且我們也得到保證他們會在夏季會期處理此事，在符合伊利諾伊州衛生相關要求的前提下，我們會持續與他們合作。但——Springfield 有很多事情必須完成，而他們也明白這是一個非常重要、需要處理的議題，並且要與州預算及其他一些重大議題一併處理。所以我們知道大家有意願開始工作；只是如何開始工作，以及我們能多快把這件事做完。

Got it. And then just what kind of C&I attrition are you guys expecting in your assumptions? And sort of how do we sort of think about Constellation more broadly as we look at '21 and beyond? And does the current situation present any strategic opportunities, in your view, maybe on the retail side? Or does sort of some of the reprieves we've been seeing at the state level on the retail side push off any potential acquisition opportunities as you guys look to tighten up that natural hedge?

了解。那再問一下，你們在假設中預期的工商業（C&I）流失率大概是多少？以及當我們看 2021 年及之後時，應該如何更廣泛地看待 Constellation？另外，就你們的觀點，目前的情勢是否在策略上帶來任何機會——例如在零售端？或者我們在州層級看到的一些零售端寬限措施，是否會把你們在強化自然避險時可能出現的併購機會往後推？

Jim, do you want to -- Jim McHugh, do you want to cover that one?

Jim，你要不要——Jim McHugh，你要不要回答這題？

Sure. Absolutely. I'll answer kind of 2 parts. I think what we expect from the low decreases we're seeing now is as the states reopen and as things recover, we're seeing about a 15% reduction in that C&I on average in these front-near months. By the end of the year, as Joe mentioned on the call, that's more in the probably 4% to 6% range and coming back in through mid-next year. So from a load perspective, it's temporary, and I think we expect that to bounce back.

當然，沒問題。我會分兩部分回答。我想，就我們目前看到的低迷下降幅度而言，隨著各州重新開放、以及情勢復甦，在這些近期月份，我們看到 C&I 平均約下降 15%。到今年年底，如 Joe 在電話會議中提到的，那大概會落在 4% 到 6% 的區間，並在明年年中之前逐步回升。所以從負載角度來看，這是暫時性的，我們預期會反彈。

I think from a strategic perspective, a couple of things. We definitely -- for acquisition space, we'll continue to look for any value of books that come to the market. There could be some suppliers that would need to let go of their books. We've talked about our strategy before will stay the same, which is we would be looking to buy things, buy books of business that we could easily fit into our platform. We've developed, I think, a world-class platform over the years that we can integrate easily, and we've shown that before when we bought books of business.

我想從策略角度來看，有幾點。我們確實——在併購領域，我們會持續尋找任何進入市場、具有價值的客戶組合（books）。可能會有一些供應商需要出售他們的客戶組合。我們之前談過，我們的策略會保持不變，也就是我們會尋求收購那些能夠輕鬆納入我們平台的資產／業務組合。多年來我們建立了一個我認為是世界級的平台，能夠容易地整合，我們過去在收購客戶組合時也已經證明過這點。

And then lastly, I think strategically, it's just product development, where we'll look to either continue to refine the products we sell now and look for demand charges that could be either [faster] or more associated with the customers' fixed charges and look for other products that we can develop to give them access to data analysis and sustainability targets that they have.

最後，我認為從策略面來看，就是產品開發；我們會著眼於持續精進目前銷售的產品，並尋找可能是更快或更貼近客戶固定費用的需量費率，並尋找我們可以開發的其他產品，讓他們能取得資料分析以及其所設定的永續目標。

Got it. Got it. And just lastly, Joe, I know you obviously highlighted that the rating agencies understand how transient in nature the cash flow dip is in 2020. Can you just remind us just from a perpetual or ongoing perspective how to think about the $250 million cost savings and the ExGen CapEx reductions for our modeling perspective?

了解。了解。最後再問一下，Joe，我知道你先前特別提到信評機構理解 2020 年現金流下滑的本質是暫時性的。你能否再提醒我們，從長期或持續性的角度，在建模時應如何看待 2.5 億美元的成本節省以及 ExGen 的資本支出（CapEx）削減？

Yes. I would say right now, most of the $250 million we're viewing as a onetime item. And some of it's being driven by the situation when you think about with things like reducing contractor spend, reducing noncritical IT spend, when you look at reductions in travel spending, consulting spend, holding vacancy rates in our organization, all of those things are contributing to the reduction in O&M. I will say, though, when we go through our planning process, which begins here late in the second quarter and through the end of the year, we've had a track record of continuing to challenge ourselves and find ways to reduce costs. And given the environment we're in and some of the things, quite frankly, we've learned we may be able to carry over some of these cost savings as we look at future periods. We just haven't made a determination on that yet.

是的。我會說目前我們把這 2.5 億美元的大部分視為一次性項目。其中一部分是由當前情勢所驅動，例如降低承包商支出、降低非關鍵 IT 支出、減少差旅支出、顧問支出，以及在組織內維持較高的職缺率；這些都在促成營運與維護（O&M）費用的下降。不過我也要說，當我們進入規劃流程（從第二季後段開始一直到年底），我們一向有持續自我挑戰、尋找降本方式的紀錄。鑑於目前的環境，以及坦白說我們學到的一些事情，未來期間我們或許能延續其中一部分的成本節省；只是我們目前尚未就此做出決定。

Next question comes from the line of James Thalacker from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 James Thalacker。

This is obviously a little bit more of a granular question. But just looking on Slide 14, there was $100 million, I guess, change from December in the non-powered new business to go. I was just wondering if you guys could talk a little bit about what's exactly in that bucket.

這顯然是一個更細部的問題。不過看第 14 頁投影片，非電力（non-powered）新業務待完成（to go）相較於 12 月似乎有 1 億美元的變動。我想請問你們能否談談那個項目裡面到底包含什麼？

Yes. The $100 million non-powered new business to go is attributed partially to execution and partially, as I said in my prepared remarks, in Q1, we've had -- we had impact both on power and non-power related to weather, and we took a reduction for the balance of the year. That's all embedded in the total $300 million that you see in the gross margin change in the hedge disclosure.

是的。這 1 億美元的非電力新業務待完成（to go），部分歸因於執行面，部分則如我在事先準備的發言中所說，第一季我們在電力與非電力方面都受到天氣影響，因此我們對今年剩餘期間做了下修。這些都包含在你於避險揭露中看到的毛利變動總額 3 億美元之內。

Okay. I was just wondering, was it a specific product that you guys are selling that where you saw the weather impact? Or just trying to understand.

好的。我想確認一下，是你們正在銷售的某個特定產品受到天氣影響嗎？我只是想更理解。

What's embedded in that non-power to go is -- the bulk of it is our -- a big piece of it is our gas business. And since that's so seasonal and related to the winter, you see the impact there.

納入那個非電力待完成（to go）之中的——其中大部分——很大一部分是我們的天然氣業務。由於那非常具季節性且與冬季相關，所以你會在那裡看到影響。

Next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra。

I just have a quick clarification question. You answered most of the things I had. In terms of just states or territories where you don't have riders on COVID costs like bad debt, just want to clarify that you're assuming recovery of those in the future, right? So the $250 million kind of targeted cost reductions don't cover that.

我只有一個快速釐清的問題。你們已經回答了我大部分的疑問。就那些沒有針對 COVID 成本（例如呆帳）設置附加條款（rider）的州或地區而言，我想確認一下，你們是假設未來會回收這些成本，對嗎？所以 2.5 億美元那種目標性的成本削減並不涵蓋這部分。

No, they don't. This is Calvin. In all of our jurisdictions where we are not -- for our bad debt and we do not have a rider, we are working in partnership with the commissions to sit back and establish regulatory assets. As Chris alluded to in his opening comments, Maryland and D.C., both of their commissions unanimously passed regulation allowing the utilities to set up regulatory assets and also set aside what identify prudently incurred COVID-related costs. And we will operate under the same standard that we used to operating on, showing that it's just and reasonable. We are working with the Pennsylvania Commission and Delaware Commission, and we hope to have rulings from them in the next week to 10 days to drive that. So at the end of this, all of our jurisdictions, we believe will be operating under a regulatory asset to show what those are bad debt costs and the COVID-related costs are.

不，沒有涵蓋。我是 Calvin。在我們所有沒有——就呆帳而言、且我們沒有 rider 的司法管轄區，我們正與各州公用事業委員會合作，回頭建立監管資產（regulatory assets）。如 Chris 在開場致詞中提到的，馬里蘭州與華盛頓特區的委員會都一致通過規範，允許公用事業設立監管資產，並且將被認定為審慎發生的 COVID 相關成本予以遞延。我們將依循我們一貫的標準運作，證明其為公平且合理（just and reasonable）。我們正與賓州委員會與德拉瓦州委員會合作，希望在未來 7 到 10 天內取得裁定來推動此事。因此在這一切結束時，我們相信所有司法管轄區都將在監管資產架構下運作，以反映那些呆帳成本與 COVID 相關成本。

Next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Wanted to follow up, perhaps clean up a little bit on some of the questions, thus far. First, with respect to the earnings CAGR and how you're thinking about that. Thus for the oscillations in the 30-year treasury, anything else shifting your outlook? Obviously, the slide is slightly different here. So I just want to make sure we're not missing anything, coming back to Steve's question.

我想跟進一下，或許把目前一些問題再釐清一下。首先，關於盈餘 CAGR（年複合成長率）以及你們如何看待它。除了 30 年期美國公債殖利率的波動之外，還有其他因素在改變你們的展望嗎？顯然這裡的投影片略有不同，所以我想確保我們沒有漏掉任何事情，回到 Steve 的問題。

Julien, there's nothing else shifting that CAGR other than the 30-year treasury.

Julien，除了 30 年期美國公債之外，沒有其他因素在改變那個 CAGR。

Okay. All right. Glad we've set that one aside. Separately, if I can keep here on the Constellation business and ExGen overall. When you think about the sensitivities to further -- you saw a faster or slower improvement here. Can you give us a little bit of a sense? And I mean that more in the context of C&I sales, degradation improvement as well as some of the portfolio optimization and volatility dynamics here as well and how that could play out in '20 as well as what are you reflecting in '21? Just to be extra clear about that.

好的。好。很高興我們把那點先放一邊。接著，如果我可以繼續談 Constellation 業務以及整體 ExGen。當你們思考對於進一步——也就是你們看到更快或更慢的改善時——的敏感度時，你們能否給我們一些概念？我指的是在 C&I（商業與工業）銷售、下滑與改善，以及投資組合最佳化與波動性動態等面向，這些在 2020 年可能如何發展，以及你們在 2021 年反映了什麼？我想把這點說得更清楚。

Jim, you want to cover that? I'm not sure we've covered '21 yet, but we can cover

Jim，你要回答這個嗎？我不確定我們是否已經談到 2021，但我們可以先談

'20.

2020。

Yes. Sure. Glad to do it. Thanks, Julien. The way we think about the balance for this year, and then I'll talk about 2021, you see the sensitivity on the slide that for every 1% change in C&I load, you see about a $15 million net income impact. And resi is about a $7 million impact. We've assumed, as we said, a slow return through the balance for this year and into next year. So what the 1% sensitivity at least allow you to do is, say, well, if any -- if across all those months, it moves up or down 1%, that's the number you would expect. I think as far as the optimization activity with these gross margin estimates we've given you, we see line of sight to being able to hit our normal optimization activity in the remainder of the new business to go bucket. So we don't expect too much impact there. We've basically realigned these targets now with these adjustments to have good line of sight to balance of the year.

好的，當然。很樂意。謝謝你，Julien。我們對今年剩餘期間的看法，然後我也會談 2021。你在投影片上看到的敏感度是：C&I 負載每變動 1%，淨利大約影響 1,500 萬美元；住宅（resi）約影響 700 萬美元。我們如先前所說，假設今年剩餘期間以及延伸到明年是緩慢回升。因此，至少 1% 的敏感度可以讓你推估：如果在那些月份整體上上下下 1%，你大概會預期那樣的數字。至於最佳化活動，就我們提供的這些毛利估計而言，我們看得到在剩餘的新業務待完成（to go）項目中，能達成我們正常的最佳化活動水準。因此我們不預期那裡會有太大影響。我們基本上已經透過這些調整重新校準目標，讓我們對今年剩餘期間有很好的可視性。

For 2021, we've included about $50 million of impact for COVID, and that is more -- a little bit of an impact on the load trickling into the year, but it also represents the fact that some of the new business activity to sign customers up has slowed down just because of the status of work that people are in. We've been tracking that, and we feel like that's a really good estimate right now, and we've been able to maintain pretty good signing up of new customers, a little bit of dip in the win and renewal rates for the month of April. As we get granular on really being able to understand which loads are impacted by how much, those win rates and renew rates bounce back up to, I think, more on normal levels. And the $50 million we've included is a good estimate.

至於 2021 年，我們納入了約 5,000 萬美元的 COVID 影響；這更多是——一部分是負載影響延續到該年度，但也反映出由於人們的工作狀態，新業務簽約活動放緩。我們一直在追蹤這點，並且覺得目前這是一個非常好的估計；我們仍能維持相當不錯的新客戶簽約，4 月的得標率與續約率略有下滑。當我們更細緻地理解哪些負載受到多大影響後，那些得標率與續約率回升到我認為更接近正常的水準。我們納入的 5,000 萬美元是一個合理的估計。

Okay. Excellent. Sorry, if I can just clarify your prior response very briefly? With respect to what's the date as of for the 30-year treasury that you are assuming in that EPS CAGR? I just want to be extra clear. Again, I don't know if you have a specific date or curve that you're using, but do you want to establish that.

好的，非常好。抱歉，我能否非常簡短地釐清你剛才的回覆？關於你們在 EPS CAGR 中所假設的 30 年期美國公債，是以哪一天的日期為基準？我想特別確認清楚。再次說明，我不知道你們是否使用特定日期或殖利率曲線，但你們是否願意把這點說明一下。

Yes. 3/31 is the date we're using, the end of the first quarter.

是的。我們使用的日期是 3/31，也就是第一季末。

End of first quarter for the 30-year treasury so?

所以 30 年期美國公債是以第一季末為基準？

Yes.

是的。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Chris Crane, do you have any closing remarks?

目前沒有其他問題。Chris Crane 先生，您有任何結語嗎？

Yes. No, thank you all for joining the call. I want to thank our employees for their commitment and dedication in these unprecedented times. And I hope that all of you and your families are safe and healthy. And with that, I will close out the call. Thank you very much.

是的。沒有，感謝各位參與本次電話會議。我也要感謝我們的員工在這些前所未有的時刻所展現的承諾與投入。我希望各位以及你們的家人都平安健康。那麼，我就結束今天的電話會議。非常感謝。