使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Exelon Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to one of your speakers today, Dan Eggers, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance. Sir, please go ahead.
各位女士、先生,感謝您稍候,歡迎參加 Exelon 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的會議可能會被錄音。(接線員指示)現在我想把會議交給今天的其中一位講者,Dan Eggers,企業財務資深副總裁。先生,請開始。
Daniel L. Eggers - SVP of Corporate Finance
Daniel L. Eggers - SVP of Corporate Finance
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team, who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks.
謝謝你,Michelle。各位早安,感謝各位參加我們 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。今天由 Chris Crane(Exelon 總裁兼執行長)以及 Joe Nigro(Exelon 財務長)帶領本次會議。Exelon 其他高階管理團隊成員也一同出席,並將在我們的準備發言後回答各位的提問。
We issued our earnings release and separation announcement release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings and separation announcement release and other matters, which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-Ks and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors, including uncertainties surrounding the planned separation that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations.
我們今天早上發布了財報新聞稿與分拆公告新聞稿,並同時提供簡報,以上資料皆可於 Exelon 官網的投資人關係(Investor Relations)專區查閱。我們在今天電話會議中討論的財報與分拆公告新聞稿及其他事項,包含前瞻性陳述與估計,並可能受到各種風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能因今日資料所討論的因素與假設,以及本次電話會議中的評論而與前瞻性陳述有所不同。請參閱今日提交的 8-K 以及 Exelon 其他向 SEC 提交的文件,以了解風險因素及其他因素之討論,包括與擬議分拆相關的不確定性,這些都可能導致結果與管理層的推估、預測與預期不同。
Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.
今天的簡報亦包含對調整後營運盈餘及其他非 GAAP 指標的引用。請參閱簡報附錄及我們的財報新聞稿中所載資訊,以取得非 GAAP 指標與最接近之 GAAP 指標之間的調節表。接下來我把電話交給 Exelon 執行長 Chris Crane。
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everybody. We have a lot to talk about this morning, so Joe and I will try to go through it and allow adequate time for questions. Some of the stuff we have to talk about is bad. The recent events in Texas have some light on that, but we have some great other subjects to talk about, our strong performance in 2020, the results there and the future path for our business.
謝謝你,Dan,各位早安。今天早上我們有很多內容要談,所以 Joe 和我會盡量快速帶過,同時保留充足時間回答問題。我們必須談的一些事情並不理想。德州近期事件讓這點更加凸顯;但我們也有一些很好的主題要談,包括我們 2020 年的強勁表現、相關成果,以及我們業務未來的發展路徑。
I'll start with Texas. The experienced unprecedented sustained cold temperatures, as we know, impacted the energy system in the state, along with severely impacting the people who live there. As noted in last week's 8-K, we had operational issues with our plants due to the extreme weather. They only periodically were available when the prices hit and were maintained at the administrative cap of $9,000. Our preliminary estimate, and it is preliminary, of the impact of this event across our portfolio is $750 million to $950 million pretax or $560 million to $710 million post tax.
我先從德州談起。如各位所知,當地出現前所未有且持續的低溫,不僅衝擊該州能源系統,也嚴重影響當地居民。正如上週 8-K 所述,由於極端天候,我們的電廠出現營運問題。當價格觸及並維持在每兆瓦時 9,000 美元的行政上限時,電廠僅能間歇性供應。我們對此事件在整體投資組合的影響之初步估計(目前仍為初步)為稅前 7.5 億至 9.5 億美元,或稅後 5.6 億至 7.1 億美元。
At this point, the range is wide. It includes our best estimate for load obligations, ancillary charges and bad debt. It will take some time to refine this estimate. The data we normally -- comes to us is on a lag from ERCOT. With recently PUCT actions, the data has been further delayed and continued uncertainty around any future actions the PUCT or others may take. We expect to provide a better update no later than the first quarter earnings call.
目前這個區間仍然很寬,包含我們對負載義務、輔助服務費用以及呆帳的最佳估計。要進一步精煉此估計仍需一些時間。我們通常從 ERCOT 取得的資料會有時間落差;而近期 PUCT 的行動使資料延遲更為嚴重,且對於 PUCT 或其他單位未來可能採取的任何行動仍存在持續不確定性。我們預期最遲將在第一季財報電話會議提供更好的更新。
This loss is not acceptable to us. We are mitigating it through business updates, including first quarterly favorability, mostly onetime cost reductions and deferral of nonessential maintenance, which Joe will cover in further detail. We have, today, found updates and offsets that are expected to reduce our net impact up to $0.20 per share at the midpoint of our loss estimates, which is reflected in our earnings guidance. These mitigating efforts are expected to reduce the cash impact to $200 million.
這項損失對我們而言不可接受。我們正透過業務調整來降低影響,包括第一季的有利因素、以一次性為主的成本削減,以及延後非必要維護;Joe 將進一步說明細節。截至今天,我們已找出預期可抵銷的調整與對沖措施,按我們損失估計的中點計算,預計可將淨影響最多降低至每股 0.20 美元,並已反映在我們的盈餘指引中。這些緩解措施預期可將現金影響降至 2 億美元。
As you know, last week's events have raised many questions about the Texas market design and associated risks. And this has not been a new conversation, it's been one that's been around for a while. And we hope that through this, that the proper actions can be taken on the design. As a result, we are evaluating all our options with respect to our ERCOT business.
如各位所知,上週事件引發了許多關於德州市場設計及其相關風險的問題。這並不是新的討論,而是已存在一段時間的議題。我們希望透過這次事件,能促使在市場設計上採取適當行動。因此,我們正在評估所有與我們 ERCOT 業務相關的選項。
Moving on to good news. Our 2020 operational and financial performance was strong. Our utilities maintained excellent operations not only in the face of the pandemic but in an extremely punishing storm year. Derechos, hurricanes, in 1 day, we had 13 tornadoes in the ComEd service territory. The power of our utility platform paid off for us this year. The mutual assistance across the fleet helped achieve record restoration speeds for both ComEd and PECO.
接著談好消息。我們 2020 年的營運與財務表現強勁。我們的公用事業公司不僅在疫情期間維持卓越營運,也在極為嚴苛的風暴年中表現出色:直線風暴(derechos)、颶風;在 ComEd 服務區域,甚至有一天出現 13 起龍捲風。我們公用事業平台的實力在今年獲得回報。全體系統之間的相互支援,協助 ComEd 與 PECO 創下史上最快的復電速度。
Each utility delivered excellent reliability, top decile outage frequency and top quartile outage duration. This performance was reflected in our customer satisfaction scores, with all utilities receiving their best on-record scores in first quartile customer satisfaction.
各家公用事業公司皆展現優異的供電可靠度:停電頻率位居前十分位(top decile),停電持續時間位居前四分位(top quartile)。此表現也反映在我們的客戶滿意度分數上,所有公用事業公司都取得有紀錄以來最佳分數,並在客戶滿意度方面位居第一四分位。
Strong operations led to constructive regulatory results as we saw in the outcome of 3 rate cases across our jurisdictions in 2020. In December, the Maryland PSC approved BGE's first-ever multiyear plan, enabling investment in reliability. We're expecting orders for multiyear plans at both Pepco D.C. and Pepco Maryland. This is allowing for timely recovery while supporting jobs in the economy in D.C. and Maryland.
強勁的營運帶來具建設性的監管成果,這可從我們 2020 年在各司法管轄區 3 件費率案件的結果看出。12 月,馬里蘭州公共服務委員會(Maryland PSC)核准 BGE 首個多年期方案,使其得以投資提升可靠度。我們也預期 Pepco D.C. 與 Pepco Maryland 的多年期方案將獲得命令核准。這有助於及時回收成本,同時支持華盛頓特區與馬里蘭州的就業與經濟。
Turning to Slide 7. Nuclear had another very good year, generating 150 terawatt-hours of zero-emitting power, avoiding 80 -- 78 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. The capacity factor was 95.4%, second only to last year's performance in fleet history. The nuclear group completed 12 refueling outages and fewer days planned despite the rigorous pandemic protections. Our relationships with our retail customers continues to remain strong, with a 79% customer renewal rate, average customer duration of more than 6 years and power contracts of 21 months on average.
請看第 7 頁。核能業務又度過非常好的一年,發電量達 1,500 億度(150 太瓦時)的零排放電力,避免排放 7,800 萬公噸二氧化碳。容量因數為 95.4%,僅次於去年,為機組群歷史第二佳表現。核能團隊完成 12 次換料停機,且在嚴格的防疫保護措施下,計畫停機天數更少。我們與零售客戶的關係持續穩固,客戶續約率 79%,平均客戶合作年限超過 6 年,電力合約平均期限為 21 個月。
Slide 8, the financial results. Excellent operations and robust cost led to our strong financial results, as you see on this slide. The pandemic reduced our demand for electricity, particularly at Constellation, which created financial headwinds for us. We reduced our earnings guidance on the first quarter call based on what we knew at the time, and we kept looking for ways to improve our earnings outlet throughout the year. We delivered on $400 million of savings, $150 million more than announced, which brought us well within our original earning guidance range. And then gains from the Constellation Technology Ventures portfolio brought us above the midpoint of our earnings guidance. We earned $2.01 on a GAAP basis and $3.22 on a non-GAAP basis.
第 8 頁,財務結果。如本頁所示,卓越的營運與強勁的成本控管帶來我們亮眼的財務表現。疫情降低了我們的用電需求,尤其是在 Constellation,對我們造成財務逆風。我們在第一季電話會議中依當時掌握的資訊下修盈餘指引,並在全年持續尋找改善盈餘表現的方法。我們實現 4 億美元的節省,較原先宣布多出 1.5 億美元,使我們回到原始盈餘指引區間之內。其後,Constellation Technology Ventures 投資組合的收益使我們高於盈餘指引中點。GAAP 基礎下每股盈餘為 2.01 美元,非 GAAP 基礎下為 3.22 美元。
Turning to Slide 10. This morning's announcement is really a very good strategic move for us. With our Board, we completed -- concluded the separation of our regulated business -- regulated utilities in the competitive businesses is the best interest of all stakeholders and are moving forward with that decision. So separation, it establishes 2 best-in-class stand-alone companies: a high-growth, high-quality, 100% regulated utility and America's leading clean energy company, producing the most clean energy paired with the best and largest customer-facing business in the country.
請看第 10 頁。今天早上的公告對我們而言確實是一項非常好的策略性舉措。我們與董事會完成並得出結論:將受監管業務(受監管公用事業)與競爭性業務分拆,最符合所有利害關係人的利益,並將依此決策向前推進。此分拆將建立兩家同級最佳(best-in-class)的獨立公司:一家高成長、高品質、100% 受監管的公用事業公司;以及美國領先的潔淨能源公司,擁有最多的潔淨能源產出,並結合全美最佳且規模最大的面向客戶業務。
It better positions each business within its peer set. And it will support business strategies tailored to the distinct business investment profiles and meeting unique customer needs. The same operational expertise, customer focus and financial discipline that you expect from this management team will continue to underpin the value proposition of each company.
此舉也能讓各業務在其同業比較群中取得更佳定位,並支持針對不同業務投資特性所量身打造的策略,以滿足各自獨特的客戶需求。各位對本管理團隊所期待的同樣營運專業、客戶導向與財務紀律,將持續作為兩家公司價值主張的基礎。
On Slide 11, the separation, the spin of the generation business to our existing Exelon shareholders, the regulatory business, which is being termed the RemainCo, shares the traits of a high-quality best-in-class utility, strong above-earnings growth rate of 6% to 8%, diversified rate base across 7 constructive jurisdictions with almost 100% of our rate base growth covered by alternative rate recovery mechanisms. Best-in-class operations and an attractive ESG attributes provide platforms to enable a transition to a clean energy economy without owning the generation.
在第 11 頁,關於分拆:將發電業務分拆並配發給現有 Exelon 股東;而受監管業務(稱為 RemainCo)具備高品質、同級最佳公用事業的特質,強勁且高於盈餘的成長率為 6% 至 8%,在 7 個具建設性的司法管轄區擁有多元化的費率基礎(rate base),且幾乎 100% 的費率基礎成長由替代性費率回收機制所涵蓋。同級最佳的營運與具吸引力的 ESG 特質,提供平台以在不持有發電資產的情況下,推動向潔淨能源經濟的轉型。
The SpinCo, Genco being titled as SpinCo for this, will be America's clean energy leader, will continue to produce electricity that is over 90% carbon-free, provide 11% of the clean energy in the country and with no coal-fired generation and emissions profile, our emissions profiles are significantly below the 1.5-degree C targets, delivering solutions for our large customer-facing platform in the country, and we anticipate having an investment-grade rating on that balance sheet.
SpinCo(此處將 Genco 稱為 SpinCo)將成為美國潔淨能源領導者,將持續生產超過 90% 的無碳電力,提供全國 11% 的潔淨能源;且不擁有燃煤發電,因此其排放概況顯著低於 1.5°C 目標所要求的水準,並為我們在全國面向大型客戶的平台提供解決方案;我們預期該資產負債表將具備投資級評等。
The transition, going to Slide 12, Joe will get in more details around the strategy and the specifics of these 2 great companies, but let me hit on some of the key transaction considerations. The spin is designed to be a tax-free distribution of the SpinCo shares to the existing shareholders of Exelon. We will work hard to close by the end of the year, which provides execution benefits around a clean calendar year transition for the split. But regulatory approvals could potentially take longer. We have several required approvals, with long lead time items being the NRC and the New York Public Service Commission. We have good plans for each of these approvals, and we'll be making the necessary files in the very near term.
關於此次轉型(請看第 12 頁投影片),Joe 將就這兩家優秀公司的策略與具體內容提供更多細節,但我先說明幾項關鍵交易考量。本次分拆設計為將 SpinCo 股份以免稅方式分配給 Exelon 現有股東。我們將全力以赴在年底前完成交割,這可在分拆時點上帶來以完整曆年為基礎的轉換執行效益。但監管核准可能需要更長時間。我們需要取得多項必要核准,其中前置期較長的項目包括 NRC(美國核能管理委員會)以及紐約州公共服務委員會。我們已針對各項核准制定完善計畫,並將在近期提交必要文件。
We maintain an open dialogue with the 3 credit agencies and anticipate both businesses remaining investment-grade under various scenarios. Our preliminary work on dis-synergy gives us confidence that they will be able to at least offset them at both companies.
我們與三大信用評等機構保持開放對話,並預期在各種情境下兩項業務皆可維持投資級。我們對於初步評估的分拆不協同效應(dis-synergy)有信心,兩家公司至少都能加以抵銷。
Turning to the dividend. The Board has approved the dividend at $1.53 for 2021, which is holding it flat to last year. RemainCo expects to target a 60% payout, in line with best-in-class high-growth peers and will grow its dividend consistent with earnings. The SpinCo will focus on the combination of debt pay-down to support our credit metrics and return capital to our shareholders and continue to invest in clean energy solutions.
接著談股利。董事會已核准 2021 年股利為每股 1.53 美元,與去年持平。RemainCo 預期將以 60% 的配息率為目標,與同業中最佳的高成長同儕一致,並將使股利成長與盈餘成長保持一致。SpinCo 將著重於結合償還債務以支持我們的信用指標、回饋股東資本,並持續投資於潔淨能源解決方案。
Resolution of the Illinois legislative session and capacity auction results in June, along with a number of other factors, will have a bearing on the allocation of this strategy.
伊利諾州立法會期的結果與 6 月容量拍賣結果,以及其他多項因素,將影響此策略的配置。
From a funding perspective, we estimate the RemainCo will need around $1 billion of new equity capital through 2024 investment horizon. This could change depending on variations of factors that we expect to play out over the course of the year. The EPS bands that Joe will show you for the RemainCo already incorporate the potential future equity needs. I'm now going to turn the call over to Joe to talk more about the 2 business strategies and the outlook for 2021.
從資金角度來看,我們估計 RemainCo 在 2024 年投資期間之前約需新增 10 億美元的股權資本。此數字可能會因我們預期在今年內逐步發生的各項因素變動而改變。Joe 稍後將展示的 RemainCo 每股盈餘(EPS)區間,已納入未來可能的股權需求。接下來我把電話交給 Joe,請他進一步說明兩項業務策略以及 2021 年展望。
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will try to build on Chris' remarks by providing more detail about the 2 stand-alone businesses and then we'll discuss our 2021 guidance. I'll start with RemainCo on Slide 14. Our utilities will continue to be a premium business within the sector and share the characteristics of other high-quality utilities. They operate in constructive regulatory jurisdictions with nearly 100% of rate base growth recovered through alternative recovery mechanisms. We will continue to meet our commitments to our customers through bill affordability and best-in-class operations. We will maintain a keen focus on our ESG initiatives, including clean energy, and diversity, equity and inclusion, and we'll continue to pursue a balanced and disciplined financial policy underpinned by a strong balance sheet. All of this will allow us to deliver on industry-leading rate base and earnings growth, built on strong returns on equity, growing the RemainCo business model well into the future.
謝謝你,Chris,各位早安。我將在 Chris 的發言基礎上,提供兩家獨立營運公司的更多細節,接著我們會討論 2021 年指引。我先從第 14 頁投影片的 RemainCo 開始。我們的公用事業將持續是本產業中的優質業務,並具備其他高品質公用事業的特徵。其營運所在的監管轄區具建設性,且幾乎 100% 的費率基礎(rate base)成長可透過替代性回收機制回收。我們將持續以帳單可負擔性與同業最佳的營運表現,履行對客戶的承諾。我們將持續高度聚焦 ESG 倡議,包括潔淨能源,以及多元、平等與共融(DEI),並在強健資產負債表支撐下,維持均衡且嚴謹的財務政策。上述各項將使我們能夠實現產業領先的費率基礎與盈餘成長,建立在強勁股東權益報酬率之上,推動 RemainCo 商業模式在未來持續成長。
If you turn to Slide 15, we show RemainCo's growth outlook. We have a robust investment plan across our utilities to continue to improve reliability and resiliency, enhance the service experience for our customers and prepare for a clean energy future. In 2021, we intend to invest nearly $6.6 billion and a total of $27 billion over the next 4 years. Since our last capital investment disclosure, we have identified more than $500 million in additional investment needs across our system that will provide further benefits for our customers and communities. We are planning to grow our rate base by 7.6% annually, subject to $58.8 billion, adding nearly $15 billion to rate base by 2024. Our rate base growth has improved by 30 basis points since last year. And as a reminder, our capital forecast reflects only identified projects that we expect to recover through our normal rate filings and other recovery mechanisms.
請看第 15 頁投影片,我們展示 RemainCo 的成長展望。我們在各公用事業單位擁有強健的投資計畫,將持續提升可靠性與韌性、改善客戶服務體驗,並為潔淨能源未來做好準備。2021 年我們計畫投資近 66 億美元,未來 4 年合計 270 億美元。自上次揭露資本投資以來,我們已在系統各處辨識出超過 5 億美元的額外投資需求,將為客戶與社區帶來更多效益。我們規劃費率基礎以每年 7.6% 成長,至 2024 年達 588 億美元,並在 2024 年前新增近 150 億美元的費率基礎。我們的費率基礎成長率較去年提升 30 個基點。提醒一下,我們的資本預測僅反映已辨識、且我們預期可透過一般費率申報與其他回收機制回收的專案。
I will also point out that the largest project in our plan is less than 1% of our capital spend from 2021 to 2024, avoiding concentration risk with any particular project. Our earnings per share outlook remains strong at 6% to 8% growth. Compared to last year's update, this growth reflects updates to our rate base forecast and our assumptions around funding RemainCo's growth with debt and the $1 billion equity issuance through 2024 that Chris mentioned. We are confident this growth extends beyond 2024. I would note that 2025 will further benefit from rate case timing as you think about your long-term modeling.
我也要指出,我們計畫中最大的單一專案,占 2021 至 2024 年資本支出的比重不到 1%,可避免任何特定專案的集中風險。我們的每股盈餘展望仍然強勁,成長率為 6% 至 8%。相較於去年的更新,此成長反映了我們對費率基礎預測的更新,以及對於以負債與 Chris 提到的 2024 年前 10 億美元股權發行來支持 RemainCo 成長的資金假設更新。我們有信心此成長可延伸至 2024 年之後。另請注意,從長期模型角度來看,2025 年將因費率案件(rate case)時點而進一步受益。
We deliver on this strong growth while maintaining a focus on affordability, which is paramount to a successful utility. We will continue to manage our costs and support energy efficiency programs to keep bill inflation in check even as we make these investments that benefit our customers.
我們在實現強勁成長的同時,仍維持對可負擔性的重視,這對成功的公用事業至關重要。我們將持續管理成本並支持能源效率計畫,即使進行這些能讓客戶受益的投資,也能抑制帳單通膨。
Now turning to Slide 16. RemainCo is a 100% fully regulated transmission and distribution utility with no generation. It is diversified across 7 regulatory jurisdictions with no one jurisdiction representing the majority of the rate base. We have worked with stakeholders in our jurisdictions to establish recovery mechanisms that allow us to prudently and efficiently invest in critical infrastructure for the benefit of our customers while generating an appropriate return on capital. Nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative mechanisms by the end of our planning period.
接著看第 16 頁投影片。RemainCo 是一家 100% 完全受監管的輸電與配電(T&D)公用事業,且不含發電業務。其業務分散於 7 個監管轄區,沒有任何單一轄區占費率基礎的大多數。我們已與各轄區利害關係人合作建立回收機制,使我們能以審慎且有效率的方式投資關鍵基礎設施,為客戶帶來效益,同時取得適當的資本報酬。在我們規劃期結束前,幾乎 100% 的費率基礎成長都將由替代性機制涵蓋。
These mechanisms include multiyear plans in Maryland and D.C., formula rates for both transmission and distribution, capital and other trackers as well as forward-looking test years. We see the combination of being a fully regulated T&D utility with geographic diversity and constructive regulatory designs as a clear differentiator among our utility peers.
這些機制包括馬里蘭州與華盛頓特區的多年期計畫、輸電與配電的公式費率(formula rates)、資本與其他追蹤機制(trackers),以及前瞻性測試年度(forward-looking test years)。我們認為,作為完全受監管且具地理多元性的 T&D 公用事業,再加上具建設性的監管設計組合,是我們在公用事業同儕中明確的差異化優勢。
Turning to Slide 17. Chris covered our 2020 operations earlier, but I wanted to highlight our operations over time, which consistently outperform the sector average, bringing tangible benefits to our customers.
請看第 17 頁投影片。Chris 先前已說明我們 2020 年的營運表現,但我想強調我們長期以來的營運表現:我們持續優於產業平均,為客戶帶來具體效益。
Moving to Slide 18. Environmental, social and governance or ESG values have been at the core of our business since Exelon's founding. We have been committed to doing what is right for all our stakeholders and that will not change. Specifically, RemainCo is committed to working within our states, regulators and communities to make investments that help them achieve their environmental and clean energy goals; continuing to support our diverse employees, customers and communities and create a workforce that reflects our community; and operate responsibly and transparently, maintaining the highest standards of corporate governance. ESG will continue to be an integral part of RemainCo's strategy as a stand-alone company.
接著看第 18 頁投影片。環境、社會與公司治理(ESG)價值自 Exelon 創立以來一直是我們業務的核心。我們始終致力於為所有利害關係人做正確的事,且這點不會改變。具體而言,RemainCo 承諾:與各州政府、監管機構及社區合作進行投資,協助其達成環境與潔淨能源目標;持續支持多元的員工、客戶與社區,打造能反映社區樣貌的勞動力;並以負責且透明的方式營運,維持最高的公司治理標準。ESG 將持續作為 RemainCo 以獨立公司身分營運時策略中不可或缺的一部分。
Moving to SpinCo on Slide 20. SpinCo will be the largest supplier of clean energy and sustainable solutions to its customers. It produces 12% or one out of every 9 megawatt-hours of carbon-free electricity in the United States. SpinCo is an essential partner to businesses and federal, state and local governments that are setting carbon reduction goals and seeking long-term solutions to the climate crisis.
接著看第 20 頁投影片的 SpinCo。SpinCo 將成為向客戶提供潔淨能源與永續解決方案的最大供應商。其在美國生產的無碳電力占比達 12%,亦即每 9 兆瓦時中就有 1 兆瓦時來自 SpinCo。SpinCo 是企業以及聯邦、州與地方政府的重要合作夥伴,這些機構正設定減碳目標並尋求因應氣候危機的長期解決方案。
SpinCo's clean generation fleet is paired with one of the largest customer-facing platforms with the leading share in the C&I market where we continue to have very high customer renewal and retention rates. It is also the best operator of nuclear power plants in the country. As Chris mentioned, we are in ongoing conversations with rating agencies and anticipate that SpinCo will remain investment-grade. It will continue to have a disciplined financial policy focused on optimizing cash flows to support the balance sheet, invest in clean energy solutions and return value to shareholders.
SpinCo 的潔淨發電機組,搭配我們規模最大的客戶接觸平台之一;我們在商業與工業(C&I)市場擁有領先市占,且客戶續約與留存率持續維持在非常高的水準。同時,它也是全美核電廠營運表現最佳的業者。如 Chris 所述,我們正與評等機構持續溝通,並預期 SpinCo 將維持投資級。SpinCo 將持續採取嚴謹的財務政策,聚焦於最佳化現金流以支持資產負債表、投資潔淨能源解決方案,並為股東創造回報。
On Slide 21, you can see how SpinCo's clean generation fleet stacks up against others. SpinCo is and will be the leading clean energy producer in the United States. It does not own coal-fired generation and 90% of its output is emissions-free. As a result, SpinCo produces nearly double the clean energy of the next leading provider and more than 8 to 17x the clean energy of its IPP peers. It also has the lowest emissions intensity, nearly fivefold less intensive than the next generator and more than 13 to 15x less carbon-intensive than the other IPPs. These attributes are a clear advantage for SpinCo as the Biden administration commits to 100% zero-carbon electricity sector by 2035 to address the climate crisis.
在第 21 頁投影片中,您可以看到 SpinCo 的潔淨發電機組與其他業者的比較。SpinCo 現在以及未來都將是美國領先的潔淨能源生產者。它不擁有燃煤發電,且其產出有 90% 為零排放。因此,SpinCo 的潔淨能源產量幾乎是下一家領先供應商的兩倍,且較其獨立電力生產商(IPP)同儕高出 8 至 17 倍。它也擁有最低的排放強度,幾乎比下一家發電業者低 5 倍,且較其他 IPP 的碳密集度低 13 至 15 倍。隨著拜登政府承諾在 2035 年前實現電力部門 100% 零碳以因應氣候危機,這些特性將成為 SpinCo 的明確優勢。
Turning to Slide 22. Each of SpinCo's states have or are looking to set ambitious emissions reductions for clean energy goals. SpinCo's generation is essential to helping states meet their goals in an affordable manner. SpinCo provides a significant amount of the clean energy in the states where it operates. In Illinois and Maryland, it provides nearly all of the clean electricity in the state. Losing any of these assets would be a significant step backward for each state in meeting its goals while also creating higher cost for customers and significant economic hardship for host communities. The company will continue to be a leading advocate for clean energy policies aimed at preserving and growing clean energy to combat the climate crisis.
接著看第22頁。SpinCo 所在的各州都已經或正著手為潔淨能源目標設定雄心勃勃的減排目標。SpinCo 的發電資產對於協助各州以可負擔的方式達成其目標至關重要。SpinCo 在其營運所在州提供了相當可觀的潔淨能源。在伊利諾伊州與馬里蘭州,SpinCo 幾乎提供了該州全部的潔淨電力。若失去任何這些資產,將使各州在達成目標上出現重大倒退,同時也會提高客戶成本,並對所在地社區造成顯著的經濟困境。公司將持續成為潔淨能源政策的主要倡議者,致力於保存並擴大潔淨能源,以對抗氣候危機。
SpinCo's clean energy leadership extends beyond the power generation fleet. As you can see on Slide 23, our Constellation business has also been a leader in developing and providing clean energy and sustainability solutions for our customers. The desire of our customers to positively impact the environment is real. And the Constellation business leads the charge through new products and strategic investments to help our customers.
SpinCo 在潔淨能源方面的領導地位不僅限於發電機組。如第23頁所示,我們的 Constellation 業務也一直是為客戶開發並提供潔淨能源與永續解決方案的領導者。我們客戶希望對環境產生正面影響的意願是真實存在的。而 Constellation 業務透過新產品與策略性投資帶頭衝鋒,以協助我們的客戶。
Not only have these efforts been economically beneficial with solid margins, they've also yielded strong customer retention rates and opened up additional revenue opportunities. One example of this is our CORe product. Constellation serves as an intermediary between the renewable developer and the customer, filling a niche where multiple offtakes are needed for 150- to 250-megawatt sized projects, and customers may have varying demands for term and deal structure. It allows Constellation to provide a customized solution for our customers.
這些努力不僅在經濟上帶來了穩健的利潤率,也帶來了強勁的客戶留存率,並開啟了額外的營收機會。其中一個例子就是我們的 CORe 產品。Constellation 作為再生能源開發商與客戶之間的中介,填補了 150 至 250 兆瓦規模專案需要多方承購(offtake),且客戶對合約期限與交易結構需求可能各不相同的市場缺口。這使 Constellation 能夠為客戶提供客製化解決方案。
Moving to Slide 24. It shows the operational performance of Generation over time compared to the industry. Generation remains the best operator of nuclear power plants in the United States with industry-leading capacity factors of approximately 94% or better and industry-leading refueling outage days at least 10 days better than the industry average every year.
接著看第24頁。該頁顯示 Generation 隨時間推移相較於同業的營運表現。Generation 仍是美國核電廠最佳的營運者,具備約 94% 或更高、領先同業的容量因數(capacity factors),且每年的換料停機天數(refueling outage days)至少比同業平均少 10 天,亦為業界領先。
Turning to our customer-facing business on Slide 25. Constellation's retail business is strong. It is steady, repeatable, and with stable margins. Customer retention rates have averaged 77% over the last 5 years, with average contract terms of 25 months and customer duration of more than 6 years. Constellation is successful at acquiring new customers with a win rate of 29%. We have the largest C&I customer base and that remains key to our strategy. First, C&I customers have higher load factors compared to residential customers and are less exposed to seasonal and weather fluctuations. Second, C&I customers allow us to achieve scale that cannot be done with residential customers. And finally, although the gross margins may be higher on residential customers, these margins do not account for the cost to acquire these customers, which are higher than C&I.
接著看第25頁我們面向客戶的業務。Constellation 的零售業務表現強勁,穩定、可複製,且利潤率穩定。過去 5 年客戶留存率平均為 77%,平均合約期限為 25 個月,客戶維持期間超過 6 年。Constellation 在取得新客戶方面也很成功,得標率(win rate)為 29%。我們擁有最大的商業與工業(C&I)客戶基礎,這仍是我們策略的關鍵。第一,C&I 客戶相較於住宅客戶具有更高的負載因數(load factors),且較不受季節與天候波動影響。第二,C&I 客戶讓我們能達到住宅客戶無法實現的規模效益。最後,儘管住宅客戶的毛利可能較高,但這些毛利並未反映取得客戶的成本,而該成本高於 C&I。
Turning to Slide 26. There are uncertainties that will impact SpinCo's future such as legislation in Illinois, the next PJM auction and potential federal carbon legislation. Regardless of those outcomes, SpinCo will continue to focus on its strong investment-grade rated balance sheet, supported by stable free cash flows which we see in the different scenarios we are currently considering. Exelon Generation has a strong record of cost management with announced savings of more than $1.1 billion since 2015 and that cost discipline will not change. We will continue to seek fair compensation for the zero-carbon attributes while maintaining the discipline to retire uneconomic assets and opportunistically monetize others.
接著看第26頁。將影響 SpinCo 未來的不確定性包括伊利諾伊州的立法、下一次 PJM 拍賣,以及潛在的聯邦碳立法。無論結果如何,SpinCo 都將持續專注於其強健、具投資等級評等的資產負債表,並由我們在目前考量的不同情境中所看到的穩定自由現金流所支撐。Exelon Generation 在成本管理方面有優異紀錄,自 2015 年以來已宣布節省超過 11 億美元,而這種成本紀律不會改變。我們將持續爭取零碳屬性的公平補償,同時維持紀律,淘汰不具經濟效益的資產,並在適當時機將其他資產變現。
We will provide a more detailed capital allocation strategy, including debt reduction, return of capital to shareholders and growth later this year when we have more clarity on these policy and auction outcomes. That said, we are confident that our disciplined approach will keep SpinCo an investment-grade rated business regardless of those outcomes.
今年稍晚,當我們對這些政策與拍賣結果有更清楚的掌握時,我們將提供更詳細的資本配置策略,包括降債、回饋股東資本以及成長規劃。即便如此,我們有信心,無論結果如何,我們嚴謹的做法都將使 SpinCo 維持為具投資等級評等的企業。
Finally, I'll conclude with our 2021 earnings guidance on Slide 28. We are providing 2021 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.60 to $3 per share, which incorporates the midpoint of the range for the severe weather impacts, offset by the opportunities that Chris discussed. Our disclosures, including O&M, CapEx and gross margin reflect the mitigation opportunities we have identified and factored into this guidance. Thank you, and now I'll turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.
最後,我將以第28頁的 2021 年盈餘指引作結。我們提供 2021 年調整後營運盈餘(adjusted operating earnings)每股 2.60 至 3.00 美元的指引,其中納入惡劣天候影響區間的中位數,並由 Chris 所討論的機會加以抵銷。我們的揭露項目(包括 O&M、CapEx 與毛利)反映了我們已辨識並納入此指引的緩解機會。謝謝,接下來我把電話交回給 Chris 作結語。
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 29. I wanted to discuss our key focus areas for 2021. Obviously, we will be working on preparations to separate the businesses, including the regulatory approvals that we are confident we will obtain. That is the work of a relatively small group of our team members. Most of the company will continue to focus on delivering operational excellence across our businesses, the operating -- operating the grid reliably and safely, supporting our customers and our communities during the pandemic and every day providing zero-carbon energy. We'll meet or exceed our financial commitments, delivering earnings within our guidance strange and maintain a strong balance sheet. We'll continue our work to mitigate the impact of ERCOT losses and maximize the earnings and cash flow.
謝謝你,Joe。接著看第29頁。我想談談我們 2021 年的關鍵聚焦領域。顯然,我們將著手準備業務分拆,包括我們有信心能取得的監管核准。這部分工作由我們團隊中相對少數的成員負責。公司大多數人將持續專注於在各項業務中交付卓越營運——可靠且安全地營運電網,於疫情期間及每日支持我們的客戶與社區,並提供零碳能源。我們將達成或超越我們的財務承諾,在指引範圍內交付盈餘,並維持強健的資產負債表。我們也將持續努力緩解 ERCOT 損失的影響,並將盈餘與現金流最大化。
At the utilities, we will prudently and effectively deploy $6.6 billion of capital to benefit the customers and meet the state's energy policy goals. We will work with our regulators to ensure timely recovery on these investments. We'll continue to advocate for clean energy climate policies with the new administration, Congress and the states to put our country on a path of meeting the carbon reduction goals.
在公用事業端,我們將審慎且有效地部署 66 億美元資本,以造福客戶並達成各州的能源政策目標。我們將與監管機構合作,確保這些投資能及時回收。我們也將持續與新政府、國會及各州倡議潔淨能源與氣候政策,使我國走上達成減碳目標的道路。
In Illinois, stakeholders continue the discussion on clean energy legislation. The governor has called for passing an energy bill this session that protects our nuclear fleet, grows renewable energy and supports customers and job creation. We expect the legislative process to ramp up in the coming weeks and months. We will continue to work with all interested parties on legislation that will achieve the state's clean energy goals and a power system dependability while protecting our customers from higher bills, dirtier air in our communities from the loss of the economic engines that our nuclear plants are.
在伊利諾伊州,利害關係人持續就潔淨能源立法進行討論。州長已呼籲在本會期通過一項能源法案,以保護我們的核能機組群、擴大再生能源,並支持客戶與創造就業。我們預期立法程序將在未來數週與數月加速推進。我們將持續與所有有興趣的各方合作,推動能達成該州潔淨能源目標與電力系統可靠性,同時保護客戶免於因失去核電廠這些經濟引擎而導致帳單更高、社區空氣更髒的立法。
We will be a partner and ally to our communities we serve, including following through on our work we have underway on social justice, racial equity and restoring civil discourse. Thank you, and I'll open the call up for questions.
我們將成為所服務社區的夥伴與盟友,包括持續推進我們正在進行的社會正義、種族平等以及恢復公民對話的工作。謝謝,接下來開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
(接線員指示)我們的第一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Stephen Byrd。
Stephen Calder Byrd - MD and Head of North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy
Stephen Calder Byrd - MD and Head of North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy
Thanks for the thorough update on a lot of topics. I wanted to talk about your Constellation Technology Ventures investment portfolio. I think you laid that out well on Slide 45. I've noticed there are quite a few of these entities or public entities now, as you know, with fairly significant market caps. It is challenging to determine kind of the aggregate value that you all have generated here. Often, share counts are not available and I know you can't disclose that on an individual company basis. But I wondered if you could maybe first just talk at a high level at what is the approximate magnitude of value of those public entity stakes that you have? And then over time, could this be a potential offset to the equity needs that you have?
感謝你們就許多主題提供了詳盡更新。我想談談你們 Constellation Technology Ventures 的投資組合。我認為你們在第45頁的說明很清楚。我注意到其中有不少實體現在已是上市公司或公開交易的實體,如你所知,且市值相當可觀。要判斷你們在此累積創造的總體價值規模相當具挑戰性。通常股數資訊並不可得,我也知道你們無法以單一公司為基礎揭露。不過我想請問,你們是否可以先從較高層次談談,你們持有這些上市實體股權的大致價值量級約為多少?另外,隨著時間推移,這是否可能成為你們股權需求的一種潛在抵銷來源?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Stephen, it's Joe. I can tell you that our -- those entities contributed $0.14 to earnings in 2020. We have included an expectation of value in our '21 forecast. And along those assumptions, we have assumptions of what the IPO schedules would look like. Obviously, for competitive reasons, I can't say a lot more than that. And as you know, these will move around day-to-day until they get to IPO and also until we get to a point if we consider liquidation. But we have included some value in our '21 forecast.
Stephen,我是 Joe。我可以告訴你,我們——這些實體在 2020 年對盈餘貢獻了每股 0.14 美元。我們已在 2021 年預測中納入對其價值的預期。基於這些假設,我們也對 IPO 時程可能的樣貌做了假設。顯然,基於競爭因素,我不能再多說。且如你所知,在它們完成 IPO 之前,以及直到我們若考慮清算之前,這些價值都會隨市場每日波動。但我們已在 2021 年預測中納入了一些價值。
Stephen Calder Byrd - MD and Head of North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy
Stephen Calder Byrd - MD and Head of North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy
Understood, Joe. And is it possible over time, I know you don't want to commit to sell any particular company, but it looks like the magnitude could be significant compared to the $1 billion of equity you need. Is it a potential offset in the future or have you ruled that out? How do you think about kind of the longer-term path here?
了解,Joe。那麼隨著時間推移,雖然我知道你不想承諾出售任何特定公司,但看起來其規模相較於你們需要的 10 億美元股權可能相當可觀。未來它是否可能成為一種抵銷來源,還是你們已排除這種可能?你們如何看待這裡較長期的路徑?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes. Those are 2 very distinct things. When you look at the $1 billion, the $1 billion of equity is needed at our RemainCo, and it matches to the growth plans, the capital allocation plan and our target metrics we're shooting for. We'll see where these investments move through time, and we'll make the necessary decisions on what we want to do with liquidation as we see value. But at this point, they're not linked.
是的。那是兩件非常不同的事情。當你看 10 億美元時,這 10 億美元的股權需求是在我們的 RemainCo,並且對應到成長計畫、資本配置計畫以及我們追求的目標指標。至於這些投資會如何隨時間變動,我們會持續觀察,並在看到價值時就清算等事項做出必要決策。但就目前而言,它們彼此沒有連結。
Stephen Calder Byrd - MD and Head of North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy
Stephen Calder Byrd - MD and Head of North American Research for the Power & Utilities and Clean Energy
Okay, understood. And then maybe just last one for me. Just as you think about ExGen and sort of the leverage levels. I think you've laid this out clearly, but I just wanted to maybe explore a little bit further. How do you think about sort of target ratios you're thinking about there? And then also, you did provide a discussion of capital allocation. I just wonder if you could just add a little bit as you think about sort of ranking the different use of capital at ExGen, if you could just expand on that a little bit.
好的,了解。那麼也許最後一個問題。當你們思考 ExGen 以及槓桿水準時,我想你們已經把這點講得很清楚了,但我只是想再多探討一點。你們如何看待那邊所設定的目標比率?另外,你們也確實提供了資本配置的討論。我想知道的是,當你們思考在 ExGen 不同資金用途的排序時,能否再多補充說明一下?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes, Stephen. We -- as you know, we have a long history of investment-grade at Exelon Generation. We have had preliminary conversations with the agencies and we've shared data with them. It's been very productive. We -- you've heard both Chris and I say in our prepared remarks that we have a continued commitment to investment-grade with the SpinCo. And the first use of the free cash flow will be to manage the balance sheet and pay down debt.
是的,Stephen。我們——如你所知,Exelon Generation 長期以來一直維持投資級評等。我們已與評等機構進行初步對話,並與他們分享資料,過程非常有成效。我們——你也聽到 Chris 和我在事先準備的發言中提到,我們仍將持續承諾 SpinCo 維持投資級。而自由現金流的第一個用途將是管理資產負債表並償還債務。
We believe investment-grade has value to the business and also to completing the transaction. And given the strength of the balance sheet, we expect it warrants to be investment-grade even when it's spun.
我們相信投資級對業務本身以及完成交易都有價值。鑑於資產負債表的強勁,我們預期即使分拆出去,也應該值得維持投資級。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
接下來的問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
So just a couple of clarifications. Is it fair to say that the financing plan, the equity plan you've laid out incorporates the impacts of the Texas events that occurred and the cash flow from that, so there's no change from that?
我有幾點想釐清。是否可以說,你們所提出的融資計畫、股權計畫已經納入德州事件發生的影響以及由此帶來的現金流,因此這方面沒有變動?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes, it does. Steve, it's Joe. It does.
是的,已經納入。Steve,我是 Joe。是的,已經納入。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
And then just one other clarification there. I think, Chris, at the end of your comments, you said the $1 billion in the plan to '24 could change some, depending. Could you just give a little more color on that?
另外還有一點想釐清。我記得 Chris,在你發言最後,你提到計畫中到 2024 年的 10 億美元可能會因情況而有所變動。你能否再多提供一些背景說明?
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Yes. I'll let Joe give color, but we did link some of this to Texas and it's early on in our actions. We want to make sure that we're giving a picture of what it potentially could be but we'll be working on it. Joe?
可以。我先讓 Joe 補充說明,但我們確實把其中一部分與德州事件連結起來,而我們的行動也還在早期階段。我們想確保我們呈現的是它「可能」會是什麼樣子,但我們會持續推進相關工作。Joe?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes. I think there, Steve, just examples of things that could change it would be we talked about $500 million of incremental capital investment at our utilities year-over-year in the 4-year horizon. That would obviously have an impact. ComEd currently is under a formula rate that ties to treasuries. Treasuries move around. Regulatory settlements could change from assumptions. So there are factors that will move it. But when we look at our plan as laid out and we look at the metrics and all, right now, we see up to $1 billion of equity needs in particular in the company at the rates we're targeting.
好的。我想在這裡,Steve,可能導致變動的例子包括:我們談到在 4 年期間內,我們的公用事業每年增加 5 億美元的額外資本投資,這顯然會產生影響。ComEd 目前採用與美國公債利率連動的公式費率(formula rate),而公債利率會波動。監管和解結果也可能與假設不同。所以確實有一些因素會讓它變動。但就我們目前所提出的計畫、以及我們檢視各項指標而言,以我們鎖定的比率來看,目前我們看到公司在股權需求方面最多可能需要 10 億美元。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Okay. So it's more just the normal course stuff at any utility?
了解。所以這比較像是任何一家公用事業在正常營運過程中會遇到的事情?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Normal course business activity, yes.
是的,屬於正常的營運活動。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Yes, it has. Yes. Okay. And then the -- just on the dividend, if you take that payout times the utility guidance, your -- you have a slightly lower dividend than the current one, but it doesn't take much dividend from ExGen to kind of make it at least even. So just -- I don't know how important that is in the scheme of your decision making, but just maybe any comment on that?
是的,確實如此。好的。那再談到股利——如果用那個配息率乘上公用事業的指引,你們的股利會比目前略低一些,但只要 ExGen 提供一點點股利,就能讓它至少持平。所以——我不確定這在你們決策架構中有多重要,但能否就此稍作評論?
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
It's really early on that one as we go through the planning process, understand what we'll be prioritizing at the Genco for debt reduction or ultimate investments. We'll have to see on that and to talk about the RemainCo is definitely early in the planning process. We have to look at all sources and uses of cash and do that throughout the year before we give a suggestion to the Board on the long term.
這部分真的還很早期。我們在規劃流程中,會先了解在 Genco 端我們會優先用於減債或最終投資的項目,這點還需要再看。至於 RemainCo 的部分也同樣仍在非常早期的規劃階段。我們必須檢視所有現金來源與用途,並在全年持續進行,之後才會就長期方向向董事會提出建議。
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Steven Isaac Fleishman - MD & Senior Analyst
Okay. And then my last question is just maybe for Chris, a high level. Between the Biden administration -- just on the nuclear future between what happened in Texas, the Biden administration coming in, the comments of the governor of Illinois, like, so far, just how are you overall feeling about the ability to get some credit for nuclear to stay open than maybe 6 months ago?
好的。那我最後一個問題可能是給 Chris 的,從高層次來看。關於核能的未來——在德州事件之後、拜登政府上任、以及伊利諾州州長的相關評論等因素之下,到目前為止,你整體上如何看待核能獲得某種「信用/補貼」以維持運轉的可能性?相較於 6 個月前是否更樂觀?
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
We've had a cloud in Illinois, and that has slowed the process of the discussion as some look at ComEd and the nuclear plants being one and working to separate that but also explaining not only the environmental benefits but the community and the economic benefits that they serve, along with the reliability in all of our jurisdictions that we have nuclear plants. I think that recognition is strong or becoming stronger.
伊利諾州一直有一層陰影,這也讓討論進程放慢,因為有些人把 ComEd 與核電廠視為同一件事。我們一方面努力把兩者區隔開來,同時也在說明核電不僅有環境效益,還有其所服務社區的社會與經濟效益,以及在我們所有擁有核電廠的轄區所提供的可靠性。我認為這種認知很強,或正在變得更強。
The preliminary conversations that Kathleen and her team are having with the administration and the Congress are positive. It's to say that you can see a carbon tax in the future, the imminent future, still a lot of ground to plow there. But continuing to work on some other mechanisms that her team has been engaged with on the legislative side and briefing on the administrative side. I do feel from a year ago to now, we're making progress.
Kathleen 和她的團隊與政府部門及國會進行的初步對話是正面的。可以說,你能看到未來、甚至不久的將來可能出現碳稅,但這方面仍有很多工作要做。不過我們也持續推動其他機制,她的團隊在立法端持續投入,並在行政端進行簡報。我確實覺得從一年前到現在,我們正在取得進展。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
接下來的問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Perhaps just wanted to follow up here on the confidence in executing this transaction. Clearly, New York prior approvals with Entergy and previous attempts obviously drove some challenges in the past. I'll leave it open-ended. I'm curious, what are the preliminary conversations in New York and NRC looking like? I recognize that you're directly addressing some of those early concerns with investment-grade balance sheet here. But if you can speak to it more broadly, I would appreciate whatever context you can provide. Certainly, it seems if I can read between the lines that you're already talking about providing a capital allocation update here. So it certainly seems like that's a positive indication.
我想在這裡追問一下你們對執行這筆交易的信心。很明顯,紐約先前對 Entergy 的核准以及過去的嘗試,確實在過去帶來了一些挑戰。我先開放式地問:你們目前與紐約以及 NRC 的初步對話進展如何?我理解你們透過投資級資產負債表直接回應了一些早期疑慮。但如果你能更廣泛地談談,我會很感謝你能提供任何脈絡。當然,看起來如果我能讀懂弦外之音,你們似乎已經在談提供資本配置更新了,所以這看起來確實是正面的訊號。
William A. Von Hoene - Senior EVP & Chief Strategy Officer
William A. Von Hoene - Senior EVP & Chief Strategy Officer
Julien, this is Bill. Thank you for the question. We have had conversations with New York and we intend to file our approval request immediately after the announcement. This is a very, very different situation from the Entergy situation where they went in with a spin-off that would be non-investment grade. We have given New York a good idea and a good understanding of how we think the financial stability of the SpinCo would be and it's a very, very different situation.
Julien,我是 Bill。謝謝你的問題。我們已經與紐約方面進行了對話,並打算在公告後立即提交核准申請。這與 Entergy 的情況非常、非常不同;當時他們提出的分拆方案會是非投資級。我們已讓紐約對我們如何看待 SpinCo 的財務穩定性有了清楚的概念與理解,因此這是非常、非常不同的情境。
We've also had a long and relatively strong relationship with New York since the ZECs were passed. So we are confident that we will get through New York. It's going to be a process, obviously, and there will be some negotiations but the initial signs are good. And while there is no time line on New York, as you know, we would expect to be able to complete this in New York within a year. And we think the conversations are productive and will continue to be that way.
自從 ZECs 通過以來,我們也與紐約維持了長期且相對良好的關係。因此我們有信心能通過紐約的程序。當然這會是一個流程,過程中也會有一些協商,但初步跡象良好。至於紐約方面沒有明確時間表,如你所知,我們預期能在一年內完成紐約的程序。我們認為目前的對話很有建設性,並將持續如此。
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research
Excellent. Just a couple of clarifications. EDF put, that's reflected, I presume, in this outlook and approval process. And then separately, the minimum FFO to debt targets that you're talking about here, can you elaborate at all? I know it's early on both sides of the equation.
很好。再請教兩點釐清。EDF 的賣權(put)我推測已反映在這份展望與核准流程中。然後另外,你們提到的最低 FFO 對債務(FFO to debt)目標,能否再多說一些?我知道兩邊都還在早期階段。
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
The answer to your first question is we've made an assumption of the EDF put in this analysis. The second one, we have had preliminary conversations with the agencies. It's too soon for us to begin commenting on what targets and metrics and all would look like, but we are confident that both entities will be strong investment-grade rated companies.
第一個問題的答案是:我們在這份分析中已假設納入 EDF 的賣權(put)。第二個問題,我們已與評等機構進行初步對話;現在還太早,無法開始評論目標、指標等會是什麼樣子,但我們有信心兩個實體都會是強健、且具投資級評等的公司。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
接下來的問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Shar Pourreza。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
So just focusing on the credit side. Do you sort of expect there to be sort of any parental guarantees between the RemainCo and the SpinCo upon separation? And curious, how do you sort of get the agencies comfortable with the business risk profile despite sort of having IG metrics? I mean, this has been a little bit of an uphill climb with some of your IPP peers.
我想聚焦在信用面。分拆後,你們是否預期 RemainCo 與 SpinCo 之間會有任何母公司保證(parental guarantees)?另外也想了解,儘管你們具備投資級(IG)指標,你們如何讓評等機構對你們的業務風險輪廓感到放心?我的意思是,對你們一些獨立發電商(IPP)同業來說,這一直是比較艱難的挑戰。
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes. So I think, Shar, to the question of parental guarantees, we don't expect any parental guarantees being held at RemainCo for the benefit of SpinCo. I think to your agency question, there's a number of ways to think about that, right? We continue to look at ways to shore up the cash flows in the business. If you look at the ZEC payments, capacity payments, the strength of our Constellation business, the strength of our nuclear operations, we're strong investment-grade rated now. I think we continually honor that commitment. We think there's value in it, our value return policy.
是的。我想,Shar,關於母公司保證的問題,我們不預期 RemainCo 會為 SpinCo 的利益而提供任何母公司保證。至於你提到的評等機構問題,有幾種角度可以思考,對吧?我們持續尋找方法來強化業務的現金流。如果你看 ZEC 支付、容量款項、我們 Constellation 業務的強勁表現、以及我們核能營運的實力,我們目前就已是投資級評等。我想我們會持續履行這項承諾。我們認為投資級是有價值的,也符合我們的價值回饋政策。
And our capital allocation at SpinCo, first and foremost, we'll start with debt reduction with the use of free cash flow. So I think all of those things go into the dialogue with the agencies to ensure that we continue as an investment-grade entity.
而我們在 SpinCo 的資本配置,首要之務是運用自由現金流先行降低負債。因此,我認為所有這些都會納入與評級機構的對話,以確保我們能持續作為一家投資等級的實體。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Got it. And then -- so I know you -- obviously, the key is that you're mitigating or offsetting some of the dis-synergies or all the dis-synergies from the transaction that's announced today. Can you just maybe elaborate how you'd expect to mitigate the dis-synergies? And how do we sort of thinking about the $7.4 billion of Holdco debt that's going to be allocated between the 2?
了解。然後——所以我知道你——顯然,關鍵在於你正在緩解或抵銷今天宣布這筆交易所帶來的部分或全部去協同效應。你能否再多說明一下,你預期會如何緩解這些去協同效應?另外,我們該如何看待將在兩者之間分配的 74 億美元 Holdco 債務?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
So the debt will remain -- the Holdco debt will remain with the parent with RemainCo. When you talk about dis-synergies, there are opportunities to reduce cost. When you look at governance models, you look at the use of technology and some of the other external things we spend money on, we're going to challenge ourselves like we do each year to determine how we can continue to reduce that, but we are confident when you go through those buckets that we can offset any dis-synergies.
所以債務將會保留——Holdco 的債務將會留在母公司,也就是 RemainCo。談到去協同效應,確實有降低成本的機會。當你檢視治理模式、科技的使用,以及我們在其他外部項目上的支出時,我們會像每年一樣挑戰自己,找出如何持續降低這些成本;而且我們有信心,當你逐一檢視這些項目後,我們可以抵銷任何去協同效應。
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Shahriar Pourreza - MD and Head of North American Power
Okay, perfect. And then just lastly, I know, Chris, you highlighted sort of reevaluating the ERCOT fleet like Colorado Bend and Wolf Hollow. Do you sort of expect a transaction or strategy there prior to the spin? Or -- so how do we sort of think about the Texas fleet in light of the ExGen spend?
好的,很好。最後一點,我知道 Chris 你提到要重新評估 ERCOT 機組,例如 Colorado Bend 和 Wolf Hollow。你是否預期在分拆之前,會先有一筆交易或策略動作?或者——我們該如何在 ExGen 支出背景下看待德州機組?
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Yes. The first step is working with the other stakeholders on what happens and what's the future design of the Texas market. Do they lean towards a reliability standard that takes into consideration capacity tested for which has not been the view of the market design in Texas? There's been a lot written on this over the years that we were heading in this direction. It's a very unfortunate event. But we have to know, first, the market design.
是的。第一步是與其他利害關係人一起釐清德州市場的未來走向與設計。他們是否會傾向採用一個可靠度標準,把經測試的容量納入考量——而這一直不是德州市場設計的觀點?多年來對此已有很多討論,指出我們正朝這個方向走。這是一個非常不幸的事件。但我們首先必須了解市場設計。
The second thing is we have to look at the design and the root cause on our specific units and the issues that we had, anywhere from metallurgical issues to pressure issues to instrument issues. We had taken some action after the Super Bowl event a couple of years ago. But you don't get compensated to do what we've done in other jurisdictions with hardening the plants that have not only penalties but capacity payments that allow you to make those investments. So we have to look at it. We want to be a reliable provider. We want to participate in a market that's designed to not only protect the consumers, the cost element, the reliability element but allow us to make the investments and operate our plants safely and reliably.
第二件事是,我們必須檢視我們特定機組的設計與根本原因,以及我們遇到的問題,從冶金問題、壓力問題到儀表問題都有。幾年前在「超級盃事件」之後我們採取了一些行動。但在德州,你不會因為像我們在其他司法管轄區那樣去強化電廠而獲得補償;在那些地方,不僅有罰則,還有容量費用,讓你能進行這些投資。因此我們必須審視。我們希望成為可靠的供應者。我們希望參與一個市場:其設計不僅要保護消費者、兼顧成本與可靠度,也要讓我們能投資並安全、可靠地運轉我們的電廠。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Durgesh Chopra。
Durgesh Chopra - Associate
Durgesh Chopra - Associate
Joe, just -- just quick -- I want to be clear on dividends. Just in terms of -- when we're thinking about pro forma dividend to shareholders, are we -- should we be modeling them lower? Or are you suggesting that there could be a dividend at the SpinCo?
Joe,我想——很快確認一下——我想把股利的部分弄清楚。就股東的備考股利而言,我們——是否應該把模型假設調低?還是你在暗示 SpinCo 也可能會配發股利?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Okay. Yes, what we've said is we've aligned the utility payout at 60% of EPS, and it will grow in line with our earnings growth. And we believe that compares to other high-growth and high-quality utilities. We haven't made a determination on the capital allocation plan at SpinCo for some of the reasons that we've talked about in our prepared remarks.
好的。是的,我們說過,我們已將公用事業的配息率對齊為每股盈餘(EPS)的 60%,並且會隨著我們的盈餘成長而成長。我們認為這可與其他高成長、高品質的公用事業公司相比。我們尚未就 SpinCo 的資本配置計畫做出決定,原因之一就是我們在事先準備的發言中提到的那些因素。
And first and foremost, we're going to continue to pay down debt there to maintain the strength of the balance sheet because we think that an investment-grade rating is important. And then beyond that, we'll determine how we return capital to the shareholders. And we expect to have those decisions made through time here. We're just not ready to commit to that at this point, given some of the uncertainty.
而且首要之務,我們會持續在那邊償還債務,以維持資產負債表的強度,因為我們認為投資等級評等很重要。接著在此之後,我們會再決定如何把資本回饋給股東。我們預期會隨時間推進做出這些決策。只是鑑於一些不確定性,目前我們還沒準備好在此刻承諾。
Durgesh Chopra - Associate
Durgesh Chopra - Associate
Understood, okay. Okay. So cash from Genco basically goes to pay down debt and then the balance, you may reinstate a dividend or sort of buy back shares or do other ways of giving it back to shareholders?
了解,好的。也就是說,Genco 的現金基本上先用來償債,然後剩餘部分,你們可能會恢復配息,或回購股票,或用其他方式回饋給股東?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
I wouldn't say it that black and white. I would say we have to make a determination on what our capital allocation policy is. And we'll do that through time as some of these other things are resolved. But there's been no final determination.
我不會把它說得那麼非黑即白。我會說,我們必須決定我們的資本配置政策。隨著其他一些事情逐步解決,我們會在時間推進中做出決定。但目前尚未有最終定案。
Durgesh Chopra - Associate
Durgesh Chopra - Associate
Understood, okay. And then just maybe can I quickly get your thoughts on -- you mentioned the federal carbon legislation. So what sort of are you expecting there and perhaps even a time line?
了解,好的。那再快速請教一下你對——你提到的聯邦碳立法——的看法。你預期會是什麼樣的內容,可能的時間表又是如何?
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Yes. I'll let Kathleen opine on that.
是的。我讓 Kathleen 來談談。
Kathleen L. Barron - EVP of Government & Regulatory Affairs & Public Policy
Kathleen L. Barron - EVP of Government & Regulatory Affairs & Public Policy
Yes. Thanks for the question. I mean, obviously, we were heartened to see the administration set the carbon-free power sector goal by 2035. And we know that there are a number of steps that are to come, including, as you mentioned, potential for climate legislation. But I would keep my eye on the administration needs to set an NDC for the U.S., a nationally determined contribution to match up to the new commitment to the Paris target. We do expect that to be more aggressive than in the past. And that will sort of set the tone for what Congress takes up.
好的。謝謝你的問題。我的意思是,很明顯地,我們很振奮看到政府設定了到 2035 年電力部門達成無碳的目標。我們也知道接下來還有許多步驟,包括你提到的、氣候立法的可能性。但我會把焦點放在:政府需要為美國設定 NDC,也就是「國家自定貢獻」,以配合對《巴黎協定》目標的新承諾。我們確實預期這會比過去更積極,而這也會在某種程度上為國會接下來要處理的議題定調。
But I think the nearest-term thing to look to is the push for an infrastructure package. There are a number of business and labor and other interests pushing the administration to move forward on a piece of legislation that itself could make progress on climate. So separate from a pure climate bill, an infrastructure bill that included tax incentives for clean energy development, electric vehicle, storage, climate-resilient infrastructure is sort of the first thing to look out for.
但我認為近期最值得關注的是推動基礎建設方案。有許多企業、勞工以及其他利益團體正在推動政府就一項立法向前推進,而該立法本身也可能在氣候方面取得進展。因此,除了純粹的氣候法案之外,一項包含潔淨能源開發、電動車、儲能、具氣候韌性的基礎建設等稅賦誘因的基礎建設法案,會是第一個需要留意的。
And then I think once that gets done, we'll see the discussions ramp up around what the future sort of national climate policy is going to look like. As you know, the administration has already expressed support for a national clean energy standard that counts nuclear as clean. And so that clearly will be on the table, but there will also be discussions about a carbon tax dividend approach. And with the growing public support for national action, we, as Chris said, are working with folks in Washington to make sure that the proper design is included in the sense that we need something that is going to be cognizant of the customer impact but also aggressive enough to address the challenge of the climate crisis.
接著我認為,一旦那件事完成,我們就會看到關於未來全國性氣候政策樣貌的討論升溫。如你所知,政府已表態支持一項全國性的潔淨能源標準,並將核能視為潔淨能源。因此這顯然會在討論桌上;同時也會討論「碳稅加股利」的做法。隨著大眾對全國行動的支持增加,我們——如 Chris 所說——正與華府各方合作,確保在設計上納入適當的要素:也就是我們需要一個能意識到對客戶影響、但同時又足夠積極以因應氣候危機挑戰的方案。
The last thing I'd say, I guess, is that while those are all extremely positive developments, they do take time. Legislation in Washington will take some time to enact and then it will take time to implement. So that's why our focus does remain at the state level on moving forward with legislation that will support the state's climate goals, air pollution reduction, electrification of the economy and job creation and equity so that we can make progress now while the federal discussions continue.
最後我想說的是,雖然這些都是非常正面的發展,但確實需要時間。華府的立法需要一些時間才能通過,之後也需要時間來落實執行。因此,我們的重點仍然放在州層級,推動能支持該州氣候目標、減少空氣污染、推動經濟電氣化、創造就業與促進公平的立法,讓我們能在聯邦討論持續進行的同時,現在就取得進展。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Michael Lapides。
Michael Jay Lapides - VP
Michael Jay Lapides - VP
Congrats on today's announcement. Lots of interesting stuff going on. Real quick. Just curious how you're thinking about really the broader risk around the retail business, not just Texas but anywhere you do it. And how we should think about the potential for power price volatility, especially given a significant amount of retired baseload generation over the last 5 to 10 years, how that could impact you in other regions where you're much bigger than you are in Texas and retail.
恭喜今天的宣布。有很多有趣的事情正在發生。我很快問一下。我只是好奇你們如何看待零售業務更廣泛的風險,不只是德州,而是你們經營零售的任何地方。以及我們該如何看待電價波動的可能性,特別是在過去 5 到 10 年間有相當多基載機組退役的情況下,這可能如何影響你們在其他地區——那些你們規模遠大於德州與零售業務的地區。
Trying to think about -- it's not the first time we've had price spikes. We had them in January of 2014 and January 2018 in New England. There have been other retailers. Just curious about how you protect yourself from the risk of a Texas-like event happening in one of your bigger markets.
我在想——這也不是我們第一次遇到價格飆升。2014 年 1 月與 2018 年 1 月在新英格蘭就發生過。也有其他零售商遇到過。我只是好奇,你們如何保護自己,避免在你們更大的市場之一發生類似德州那樣的事件風險。
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
The one thing is you have to differentiate between the market designs. Texas is far different to PJM. The interconnectability and availability of power through that Eastern interconnect is strong. We have taken on steps in other markets to ensure that we have adequate capacity that can weather such events, weather events.
有一點是,你必須區分不同的市場設計。德州與 PJM 非常不同。透過東部互聯系統的互聯能力與電力可得性很強。我們在其他市場也採取了一些步驟,以確保我們有足夠的容量能承受此類事件、天候事件。
But you take in an isolated market where you do not have the ability to import to cover your load, you have a price cap that's significantly high and you essentially lose your sights. It is not something you can hedge for at this time in ERCOT, and that's what we have to work on. But our hedging strategy and our ability to have our customer-facing products in our retail C&I and residential business has many risk focuses on that, and we continue to work as the markets evolve.
但如果你處在一個孤立市場,無法透過進口來覆蓋你的負載,又有顯著偏高的價格上限,你基本上就會失去掌控。在 ERCOT 目前你無法對此進行避險,這也是我們必須努力的方向。不過,我們的避險策略,以及我們在零售 C&I 與住宅業務中面向客戶的產品,在風險管理上有許多著力點;隨著市場演進,我們也會持續調整。
So we're not looking at it like this is an event everywhere across the country as long as we keep focusing on sound market designs, understanding capacity requirements and the investments required by the generators to prevent such volatility. But our hedging strategy is the key to that.
因此,只要我們持續專注於健全的市場設計、了解容量需求以及發電業者為避免此類波動所需的投資,我們就不會把這件事視為全國各地都會發生的事件。但我們的避險策略是其中的關鍵。
Michael Jay Lapides - VP
Michael Jay Lapides - VP
Got it, okay. And then a follow-up on SpinCo. How should we think about -- I mean, you've got an RPM auction coming up this May. How should we think about potential changes in RPM outcomes relative to the last auction, which was almost 2 years ago? And what it means for the financial structure, the capital structure for kind of ExGen as a new entity separate from consolidated Exelon?
了解,好的。接著追問一下 SpinCo。我們應該如何看待——我是說,你們今年 5 月有一場 RPM 拍賣即將到來。我們應該如何看待 RPM 結果相較於上一次(將近 2 年前)拍賣可能出現的變化?以及這對財務結構、資本結構——也就是作為一個從合併後的 Exelon 分拆出來的新實體的 ExGen——意味著什麼?
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
So that's a pretty broad question. There's a bunch of questions in there. I think I'll let Joe start with it and see where we go for the rest of it with Kathleen and anyone else around the table...
這是一個相當廣泛的問題,裡面包含很多問題。我想先讓 Joe 來開頭,然後再看看後續由 Kathleen 和在座其他人怎麼補充……
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Michael, the one thing I would say is, and we made this comment in our prepared remarks, we looked at the SpinCo business under a range of different scenarios. And those scenarios ultimately take into account changes in cash flow assumptions and how we would manage the business accordingly. I think you've seen us through time, we've been very prudent financially with a lot of discipline, right? We've used alternative tools like project financing. We've retired assets when they were uneconomic and we couldn't get paid for them. We've sold assets that the market has put a higher premium on than ours.
Michael,我想說的一點是——我們在事先準備的發言中也提到——我們在一系列不同情境下檢視了 SpinCo 的業務。而這些情境最終都會納入現金流假設的變化,以及我們將如何相應地管理業務。我想你也看到,長期以來我們在財務上一直非常審慎且紀律嚴明,對吧?我們使用過像專案融資這類替代工具。當資產不具經濟性、且我們無法為其獲得合理報酬時,我們也會讓資產退役。我們也出售過市場給予更高溢價、而非我們自身估值的資產。
But we don't look at just one point estimate. We have to make sure we understand how shocks would impact our -- the balance sheet and the free cash flow of the company, and we continue to look at that. And your example of capacity outcomes would tie into that.
但我們不會只看單一點估。我們必須確保了解衝擊將如何影響我們——公司的資產負債表與自由現金流,並且我們會持續檢視。而你提到的容量結果範例也會與此相關。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research.
下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jonathan Arnold。
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Principal
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Principal
Just -- I wanted to clarify one thing on the corporate segment drag that you have, say, in your '21 guidance. It looks as though that is mostly allocated to RemainCo just as we think about transitioning forward. Is that correct or is a piece of that sort of not coming -- will a piece of that go away with the spin?
我只是——想釐清一件事,關於你們在 2021 年指引中提到的公司部門拖累。看起來那部分大多分配給 RemainCo,因為我們在思考未來轉換時會這樣看。這樣理解正確嗎?還是其中有一部分不會延續——也就是有一部分會隨著分拆而消失?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes, you are correct. It's mostly allocated to RemainCo.
是的,你說得沒錯。那部分大多分配給 RemainCo。
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Principal
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Principal
Okay. So that was one thing. And then just as I look at the RemainCo's earnings trajectory, I mean, obviously, you're reiterating the 6% to 8%. But a good bit of that seems to be the step-up in '21 from 2020. So -- and then it's kind of flatter further out and obviously have the equity in there, but it doesn't look like that's huge. So just curious what's kind of tempering that slope further out when you thought you actually raised the CapEx, et cetera?
好的。所以這是一點。然後再看 RemainCo 的獲利軌跡,我的意思是,顯然你們重申 6% 到 8%。但其中相當一部分似乎來自 2021 年相較 2020 年的跳升。所以——之後看起來就比較平坦,當然也包含股權因素,但看起來也不是很大。所以我只是好奇,當你們其實提高了資本支出等時,究竟是什麼在抑制後段的斜率?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes. So Jonathan, 6% to 8% is a long-term target for us. As you could imagine, given the size and scale of our business, there's going to be some oscillation in a given period of time. When you think about rate case timing and then -- would be one that changes it. So if you were to carry this through to '25, you would see strong growth, just given some of the timing of our rate cases.
是的。所以 Jonathan,6% 到 8% 是我們的長期目標。如你所想,考量到我們業務的規模與體量,在特定期間內會有一些起伏。當你想到費率案件(rate case)的時點——這會是改變走勢的一個因素。所以如果你把它延伸到 2025 年,你會看到強勁成長,主要是因為我們費率案件時點安排的影響。
I would also say the work we're doing at the utilities under Calvin Butler's leadership is to make sure that we're reducing lag, right? We're investing for the benefit of our consumers and improving reliability and the customer experience. But we're also trying to make sure that we reduce the regulatory lag, and we've seen that with things like the multiyear rate plan in Maryland and D.C. for example. But there are going to be some years where it moves around just given timing of rate cases and other things.
我也想說,在 Calvin Butler 的領導下,我們在公用事業端所做的工作,是要確保我們降低滯後(lag),對吧?我們投資是為了讓消費者受益、提升可靠度與客戶體驗。但我們也在努力降低監管滯後(regulatory lag),例如我們在馬里蘭州與華盛頓特區的多年期費率計畫(multiyear rate plan)就看到成效。不過,因為費率案件時點與其他因素,某些年度仍會出現波動。
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Principal
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Principal
Okay, good enough. And just maybe one other thing on timing. You've obviously talked about these offsets to the Texas hit. How should we think about those in terms of publishing them up through the year? I mean, is Q1 going to be -- you can take, obviously, the negatives in Q1 but does it sort of take most of the year to get back to that negative [20%] net? Or would it come quicker than that?
好的,這樣就夠了。再補一個關於時點的問題。你們顯然談到用這些抵銷項來對沖德州的衝擊。我們應該如何看待這些抵銷項在一年內的揭露節奏?我的意思是,第一季會——你們當然會在第一季認列負面影響,但要花大部分一年才能回到那個負的[20%]淨額嗎?還是會比那更快?
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Joseph Nigro - Senior EVP & CFO
Yes, no. So will take time to flush through the year and we're looking at these in a number of buckets. We have the ability to defer nonessential maintenance. There are some onetime cost savings, which we'll monetize throughout the year. And then there are some revenue enhancement opportunities, which also will happen throughout the year. But there's a number of different levers that we're using.
是的,不會那麼快。這需要時間在全年逐步反映出來,我們也從幾個面向來看。我們有能力遞延非必要的維護。有一些一次性成本節省,我們會在全年逐步實現其效益。也有一些提升營收的機會,同樣會在全年發生。我們正在使用多種不同的槓桿。
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
The -- there's a very focused team that's overseeing this, working with the individual businesses on making sure that they can commit to what we believe that these goals are that come up with this savings range. And we'll continue to challenge from the corporate financial organization other areas on where we can affect some dampening of the effects of ERCOT.
有一個——非常專注的團隊在監督這件事,並與各個業務單位合作,確保他們能夠承諾我們認為可達成的目標,並形成這個節省區間。我們也會從公司財務組織的角度持續挑戰其他領域,看看還能在哪些地方進一步抑制 ERCOT 影響的程度。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And this does conclude today's question-and-answer session, and I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Chris Crane for any further remarks.
謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束,我想把電話會議交回給 Chris Crane 先生,看看是否還有進一步的發言。
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
Christopher Mark Crane - President, CEO & Director
I'd just like to thank everybody for joining today. We had a lot to go through today. As we're planning for this with the Board, we did not anticipate the ERCOT event to the extent that it played through, creates a little bit of complication. But it's nothing that the team is not up to, to try to work through the challenges. So we'll continue to update you on the calls or if something happens.
我只想感謝大家今天的參與。我們今天有很多內容要討論。在我們與董事會規劃這件事時,我們並未預期 ERCOT 事件會以這樣的程度發展,這確實帶來一些複雜性。但這不是團隊無法應對的,我們會努力克服這些挑戰。因此,我們會在電話會議上持續向各位更新,或若有事情發生也會更新。
In the meantime, when we think it's worthy, Dan and his team, Emily will be reaching out to folks just to make sure we're in sync and you know where we're going. So with that, be safe, and thank you.
同時,當我們認為有必要時,Dan 和他的團隊、以及 Emily 會主動聯繫大家,確保我們步調一致,並讓你們了解我們的方向。就這樣,請大家注意安全,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
各位女士先生,感謝您參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束,您可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。